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Is the International Role of the Dollar Changing?
Is the International Role of the Dollar Changing? Linda S. Goldberg Recently the U.S. dollar’s preeminence as an international currency has been questioned. The emergence of the euro, changes www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues ✦ in the dollar’s value, and the fi nancial market crisis have, in the view of many commentators, posed a signifi cant challenge to the currency’s long-standing position in world markets. However, a study of the dollar across critical areas of international trade January 2010 ✦ and fi nance suggests that the dollar has retained its standing in key roles. While changes in the global status of the dollar are possible, factors such as inertia in currency use, the large size and relative stability of the U.S. economy, and the dollar pricing of oil and other commodities will help perpetuate the dollar’s role as the dominant medium for international transactions. Volume 16, Number 1 Volume y many measures, the U.S. dollar is the most important currency in the world. IN ECONOMICS AND FINANCE It plays a central role in international trade and fi nance as both a store of value Band a medium of exchange. Many countries have adopted an exchange rate regime that anchors the value of their home currency to that of the dollar. Dollar holdings fi gure prominently in offi cial foreign exchange (FX) reserves—the foreign currency deposits and bonds maintained by monetary authorities and governments. And in international trade, the dollar is widely used for invoicing and settling import and export transactions around the world. -
Social and Economic Impact of COVID-19
Social and economic impact of COVID-19 Eduardo Levy Yeyati Federico Filippini BROOKINGS GLOBAL WORKING PAPER #158 JUNE 2021 Social and economic impact of COVID-19 Eduardo Levy Yeyati Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Economy & Development at Brookings Institution Dean of the School of Government at Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Federico Filippini Visiting Professor at Universidad Torcuato Di Tella June 2021 Brookings Global Working Paper #158 Global Economy and Development program at Brookings www.brookings.edu/global Acknowledgements Prepared for The Independent Panel of the World Health Organization. We are grateful to Mauricio Cárdenas, Ricardo Hausmann, Anders Nordstrom, Rodrigo Valdés, Andrés Velasco, Alejandro Werner, Ernesto Zedillo and members of The Independent Panel for their useful comments, and Joaquin Marandino for excellent research assistance. The usual disclaimers apply. The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit organization devoted to independent research and policy solutions. Its mission is to conduct high-quality, independent research and, based on that research, to provide innovative, practical recommendations for policymakers and the public. The conclusions and recommendations of any Brookings publication are solely those of its author(s), and do not reflect the views of the Institution, its management, or its other scholars. Brookings recognizes that the value it provides is in its absolute commitment to quality, independence and impact. Activities supported by its donors reflect this commitment and the analysis and recommendations are not determined or influenced by any donation. A full list of contributors to the Brookings Institution can be found in the Annual Report at www.brookings.edu/about-us/annual-report/. 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 1 2. -
LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Thursday, December 10, 2015
LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Thursday, December 10, 2015 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group ECONOMIC Genaro Arriagada What Challenges Nonresident Senior Fellow, Moody’s Puts Inter-American Dialogue Brazil on Review Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Face Argentina’s for Possible Junk JPMorgan Chase & Co. Status W. Bowman Cutter Former Partner, New President? If Moody’s strips Brazil of its E.M. Warburg Pincus investment-grade credit rating, it Dirk Donath would be the second of the three Senior Partner, major ratings agencies to do so. Catterton Aimara Such a move would likely cause Marlene Fernández Corporate Vice President for investors to drain money from the Government Relations, country. Arcos Dorados Page 2 Peter Hakim President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue BUSINESS Donna Hrinak President, Boeing Latin America Mexico Approves Jon Huenemann Sanofi ’s Dengue Vice President, U.S. & Int’l Affairs, Philip Morris International Vaccine Mauricio Macri is only the third non-Peronist candidate to have won Argentina’s presidency James R. Jones since military rule ended in 1983. // File Photo: Facebook page of Mauricio Macri. Mexico became the fi rst country Co-chair, Manatt Jones to approve a dengue vaccine for Global Strategies LLC Mauricio Macri, who takes offi ce today as Argentina’s pres- sale, however the approval does Craig A. Kelly not allow for the vaccine to be Director, Americas International ident, has signaled big policy shifts away from those of his Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil given to children under nine or predecessor, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. -
CID Working Paper No. 165 :: Estimating
Estimating SARB’s Policy Reaction Rule Alberto Ortiz and Federico Sturzenegger CID Working Paper No. 165 May 2008 © Copyright 2008 Alberto Ortiz, Federico Sturzenegger and the President and Fellows of Harvard College Working Papers Center for International Development at Harvard University Estimating SARB’s Policy Reaction Rule* Alberto Ortiz and Federico Sturzenegger May 2008 Abstract: This paper uses a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to estimate the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) policy reaction rule. We find that the SARB has a stable rule very much in line with those estimated for Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand. Relative to other emerging economies the policy reaction function of the SARB appears to be much more stable with a consistent anti-inflation bias, a somewhat larger weight on output and a very low weight on the exchange rate. Keywords: monetary policy rules, exchange rates, structural estimation, Bayesian analysis JEL Codes: C32, E52, F41, O57 This paper is part of the CID South Africa Growth Initiative. This project is an initiative of the National Treasury of the Republic of South Africa within the government’s Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative (ASGI-SA), which seeks to consolidate the gains of post-transition economic stability and accelerate growth in order to create employment and improve the livelihoods of all South Africans. For more information and the entire series of papers, visit the project's web site at http://www.cid.harvard.edu/southafrica. * Originally published as: Alberto Ortiz and Federico Sturzenegger (2007), “Estimating SARB’s Policy Reaction Rule,” The South African Journal of Economics 75 (4), 659-680. -
Credibility Dynamics and Inflation Expectations∗
Credibility Dynamics and Inflation Expectations∗ Rumen Kostadinov† Francisco Roldán‡ April 2021 Abstract We study the optimal design of a disinflation plan by a planner who lacks commitment and has imperfect control over inflation. The government’s reputation for being committed to the plan evolves as the public compares realized inflation to the announced targets. Repu- tation is valuable as it helps curb inflation expectations. At the same time, plans that are more tempting to break lead to larger expected reputational losses in the ensuing equilib- rium. Taking these dynamics into consideration, the government announces a plan which balances promises of low inflation with dynamic incentives that make them credible. Wefind that, despite the absence of inflation inertia in the private economy, a gradual disinflation is preferred even in the zero-reputation limit. JEL Classification E52, C73 Keywords Imperfect credibility, reputation, optimal monetary policy, time inconsistency ∗The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its ExecutiveBoard, or its management. For insightful comments we thank Alberto Bisin, Marcos Chamon, Daniel Heymann, Boyan Jovanovic, Ricardo Lagos, Pablo Ottonello, David Pearce, Francisco Roch, Tom Sargent, Andrés Schneider, Ennio Stacchetti, Federico Sturzenegger, Martín Uribe, as well as seminar participants at NYU, UTDT, UdeSA, IIEP, andthe IMF. †Department of Economics, McMaster University; e-mail: [email protected] ‡Research Department, International Monetary Fund; e-mail: [email protected] 1 IntRoduction Macroeconomic models give expectations about future policy a large role in the determination of current outcomes. Policy is then generally set under one of two assumptions: commitment to future actions or discretion. -
Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE SOCIAL COST OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES Dani Rodrik Working Paper 11952 http://www.nber.org/papers/w11952 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 January 2006 The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ©2006 by Dani Rodrik. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves Dani Rodrik NBER Working Paper No. 11952 January 2006 JEL No. F3 ABSTRACT There has been a very rapid rise since the early 1990s in foreign reserves held by developing countries. These reserves have climbed to almost 30 percent of developing countries' GDP and 8 months of imports. Assuming reasonable spreads between the yield on reserve assets and the cost of foreign borrowing, the income loss to these countries amounts to close to 1 percent of GDP. Conditional on existing levels of short-term foreign borrowing, this does not represent too steep a price as an insurance premium against financial crises. But why developing countries have not tried harder to reduce short-term foreign liabilities in order to achieve the same level of liquidity (thereby paying a smaller cost in terms of reserve accumulation) remains an important puzzle. Dani Rodrik John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 and NBER [email protected] 1 THE SOCIAL COST OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES Dani Rodrik Harvard University January 2006 I. -
William W. Hogan
March 2021 WILLIAM W. HOGAN PERSONAL DATA Born: 1944, Holyoke, Massachusetts Address: Harvard Kennedy School Harvard University 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138 [email protected] http://www.whogan.com EDUCATION BS United States Air Force Academy, 1966 MBA University of California, Los Angeles, 1967 PhD University of California, Los Angeles, 1971 PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE 2019 - Raymond Plank Research Professor of Global Energy Policy, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 2006 - 2019 Raymond Plank Professor of Global Energy Policy, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 2011- FTI Consulting, Boston, Massachusetts 1999 - 2011 Director, LECG, LLC, Cambridge, Massachusetts 1998 - 2006 Lucius N. Littauer Professor of Public Policy and Administration, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 1989 - 1999 Senior Advisor, Putnam, Hayes and Bartlett, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts 1987 - 1998 Thornton Bradshaw Professor of Public Policy and Management, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 1982 - 1990 Chairman, Public Policy Program, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 1980 - 1997 Director, Putnam, Hayes and Bartlett, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts 1978 - 1987 Professor of Political Economy, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 1978 - 1986 Director, Energy and Environmental Policy Center, -
CID Working Paper No. 150 :: a Balance-Sheet Approach to Fiscal
A Balance-Sheet Approach to Fiscal Sustainability Eduardo Levy-Yeyati and Federico Sturzenegger CID Working Paper No. 150 October 2007 © Copyright 2007 Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, Federico Sturzenegger, and the President and Fellows of Harvard College Working Papers Center for International Development at Harvard University A Balance-Sheet Approach to Fiscal Sustainability† Eduardo Levy-Yeyati and Federico Sturzenegger‡ Abstract Recent empirical research on emerging markets debt, currency crises and fiscal sustainability has placed a significant focus on the role of currency mismatches with the emphasis placed on the currency composition of explicit government liabilities. The key insight of this paper is that these liabilities, while relevant, usually represent a small share of actual government liabilities: indeed, as an indicator of fiscal solvency, they are relatively uninformative – and possibly misleading – if not matched with the remaining liabilities (promises of wage and pension payments among others) and the asset side of the government’s balance sheet: financial and real government assets as well as the present value of future tax collection. These non-debt liabilities and assets may be affected by changes in the real exchange rate in a way that dwarfs the effect on the explicit liabilities which are typically the focus of attention. With this in mind, this paper proposes a balance-sheet approach that, as illustrated by the practical applications included here, may radically alter the results from traditional sustainability evaluations – and, more generally, the perception of a country’s fiscal vulnerability. Keywords: assets, balance-sheet approach, currency, debt, emerging markets, fiscal sustainability, liabilities JEL codes: P43, H20, H60, H61 † This paper was also published in the KSG Faculty Research Working Papers Series as Working Paper #RWP07- 044. -
Shaping Africa's Post-Covid Recovery
Edited by Rabah Arezki, Simeon Djankov and Ugo Panizza Shaping Africa’s Post-Covid Recovery Shaping Africa’s Post-Covid Recovery CEPR PRESS Centre for Economic Policy Research 33 Great Sutton Street London, EC1V 0DX UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7183 8801 Email: [email protected] Web: www.cepr.org ISBN: 978-1-912179-41-1 Copyright © CEPR Press, 2021. Shaping Africa’s Post-Covid Recovery Edited by Rabah Arezki, Simeon Djankov and Ugo Panizza CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH (CEPR) The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) is a network of over 1,500 research economists based mostly in European universities. The Centre’s goal is twofold: to promote world-class research, and to get the policy-relevant results into the hands of key decision-makers. CEPR’s guiding principle is ‘Research excellence with policy relevance’. A registered charity since it was founded in 1983, CEPR is independent of all public and private interest groups. It takes no institutional stand on economic policy matters and its core funding comes from its Institutional Members and sales of publications. Because it draws on such a large network of researchers, its output reflects a broad spectrum of individual viewpoints as well as perspectives drawn from civil society. CEPR research may include views on policy, but the Trustees of the Centre do not give prior review to its publications. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and not those of CEPR. Chair of the Board Sir Charlie Bean Founder and Honorary President Richard Portes President Beatrice Weder di -
Sovereign Debt in the Americas: New Data and Stylized Facts
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Cowan, Kevin; Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo; Panizza, Ugo; Sturzenegger, Federico Working Paper Sovereign debt in the Americas: New data and stylized facts Working Paper, No. 577 Provided in Cooperation with: Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Washington, DC Suggested Citation: Cowan, Kevin; Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo; Panizza, Ugo; Sturzenegger, Federico (2006) : Sovereign debt in the Americas: New data and stylized facts, Working Paper, No. 577, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department, Washington, DC This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/51530 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von -
The Argentine Crisis
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Research Papers in Economics CCIIFF ESCUELA DE NEGOCIOS Centro de Investigación en Finanzas Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Centro de Investigación en Finanzas Documento de Trabajo 08/2002 Argentina’s Avoidable Crisis: Bad Luck, Bad Management, Bad Politics, Bad Advice Andrew Powell Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Miñones 2177, C1428ATG Buenos Aires • Tel: 4784.0080 interno 181 y 4787.9394 • Web site: www.utdt.edu/departamentos/empresarial/cif/cif.htm Preliminary Do not quote without author’s permission Argentina’s Avoidable Crisis: Bad Luck, Bad Economics, Bad Politics, Bad Advice Andrew Powell1 Paper Prepared for Brookings Trade Conference May 2nd 2002 Washington DC 1 Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Buenos Aires. I wish to thank Leandro Arozamena, Joyce Chang, Susan Collins, Hugh Elliott, Michael Gavin, Martín Gonzalez Rozada, Pablo Guidotti, José Luis Machinea, Pedro Pou and Féderico Sturzenegger and all the participants in the Brookings Trade Forum for their help in writing this paper and Augusto Stabalito for excellent Research Assistance. All mistakes remain my own. Contents 1. Introduction: A description of the events 2. Four Hypotheses 3. An Empirical Evaluation 4. On the Role of the IMF: lessons for institutions from Argentina 5. Conclusions Appendix 1: Results of a Vector Auto-regression Analysis Appendix 2: A Simple Game-theoretic approach to IMF/country strategic interactions 1. Introduction: a description of the events I recently renamed this paper, to counter the growing trend of papers that suggest that the Argentine crisis was inevitable. In what follows, I claim that while the currency may have been over-valued by conventional measures, especially after the devaluation of the Real, the current account had more or less adjusted by the end of 2000. -
To Dollarize Or De-Dollarize: Consequences for Monetary Policy
To dollarize or de-dollarize: Consequences for Monetary Policy Patricia Alvarez-Plata and Alicia García-Herrero September, 2007 Paper prepared for the Asian Development Bank *We thank Eric Girardin, Jay Menon and Alfred Steinherr for very constructive comments. 1 1. Introduction: In the last decade, several emerging economies experienced severe financial crises. This led to the acknowledgement of a need to revise exchange rate and monetary theory, taking into account more specifically the conditions under which these countries operate. Topics such as dollarization, and balance sheet effects, have become central to the formulation and conduct of monetary policy and exchange rate regimes. This is specially relevant for the countries included in this book, as residents in ASEAN economies in transition save and borrow in large part in US-dollar and, in some cases also use hard currencies as means of payments. The aim of this paper is to review the experience of various dual-currency economies and analyze the main challenges faced by policymakers in formulating and conducting monetary policy. To that end, it distinguishes between countries with growing dollarization and those which have managed to revert such trend. In addition to the Asian countries of interest we look at a number of Latin American countries, Israel and Russia. All of these countries have experienced – and in some cases still do – a high degree of dollarization. Though there are several other countries within Central and Eastern Europe where a hard currency, i.e. the euro, is frequently used for financing and saving purposes, an important difference of this region and the ASEAN countries in transition, is that the latter are nowhere close to adopting the dollar as an official currency or to enter a monetary union.