Shaping Africa's Post-Covid Recovery
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Air Pollution and Other Risk Factors Might Buffer COVID-19 Severity in Mozambique
Coronavirus Pandemic Air pollution and other risk factors might buffer COVID-19 severity in Mozambique José Sumbana1,2, Jahit Sacarlal3, Salvatore Rubino2 1 Department of Biological Sciences, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique 2 Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy 3 Department of Microbiology, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique Abstract Mozambique is located on the East Coast of Africa and was one of the last countries affected by COVID-19. The first case was reported on 22 March 2020 and since then the cases have increased gradually as they have in other countries worldwide. Environmental and population characteristics have been analyzed worldwide to understand their possible association with COVID-19. This article seeks to highlight the evolution and the possible contribution of risk factors for COVID-19 severity according to the available data in Mozambique. The available data highlight that COVID-19 severity can be magnified mainly by hypertension, obesity, cancer, asthma, HIV/SIDA and malnutrition conditions, and buffered by age (youthful population). Due to COVID-19 epidemic evolution, particularly in Cabo Delgado, there is the need to increase laboratory diagnosis capacity and monitor compliance of preventive measures. Particular attention should be given to Cabo Delgado, including its isolation from other provinces, to overcome local transmission and the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Key words: SARS-CoV-2; risk factors; COVID-19 severity; Mozambique. J Infect Dev Ctries 2020; 14(9):994-1000. doi:10.3855/jidc.13057 (Received 15 May 2020 – Accepted 11 July 2020) Copyright © 2020 Sumbana et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. -
Swiss Cooperation Strategy Egypt 2017–2020 Abbreviations
Swiss Cooperation Strategy Egypt 2017–2020 Abbreviations AFD Agence Française de Développement KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau AfDB African Development Bank MERV Monitoring system for development- ARIs Aggregated Report Indicators to report relevant changes on the Federal Dispatch 2017-2020 for MoIC Ministry of International Cooperation International Cooperation MoSS Ministry of Social Solidarity CBM Confidence-building measure MSMEs Micro, small and medium enterprises CS Cooperation Strategy NGOs Non-governmental organisations CSOs Civil society organisations ODA Official Development Assistance CSPM Conflict-sensitive programme OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation management and Development DIL Directorate for International Law OIC Office for International Cooperation / DPG Development Partners Group Embassy of Switzerland in Egypt EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and DP Directorate of Political Affairs Development SDC Swiss Agency for Development and EIB European Investment Bank Cooperation EU European Union SDGs Sustainable Development Goals EUTF EU Emergency Trust Fund for stability SDS Sustainable Development Strategy and addressing root causes of irregular SECO State Secretariat for Economic Affairs migration and displaced persons in Africa SEM State Secretariat for Migration FDFA Swiss Federal Department of Foreign SNAP Swiss North Africa Programme 2011-2016 Affairs TVET Technical Vocational Education and GoE Government of Egypt Training HSD Human Security Division UMC Unaccompanied minors and children IFC International -
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #3, September 2020
#3 SEPTEMBER 2020 ISSN 2707-2223 CROP PROSPECTS and Quarterly Global Report FOOD SITUATION COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD FAO assesses that globally 45 countries, including 34 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly through the loss of income and jobs related to Countries in need of containment measures, have external assistance severely aggravated global food security conditions, as well as for food increasing the number of people in need of assistance. Conflicts and weather shocks remained critical factors affecting the current high levels of severe food 45 insecurity. REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS Asia 1.7 AFRICA Larger harvests are estimated in Southern Africa and East Africa, Africa 2.0 despite floods and outbreaks of desert locusts; although pest damages have Central America and the Caribbean 2.9 been largely contained, serious concerns South America 2.0 remain in some countries. Adverse WORLD weather reduced wheat outputs in North America 7.7 Cereal production 2020 North African countries, while cereal Europe -3.9 production in West Africa is foreseen at over 2019 a slightly above-average level. Protracted Oceania 45.6 (yearly percentage change) conflicts continue to limit growth in agricultural production in Central Africa. World 2.2 ASIA Widespread floods caused damage in several countries in Far East Asia, but rains across the subregion were + 2.2% also beneficial for paddy production and the output in 2020 is forecast (million tonnes) at a record high. In the Near East, reflecting improved security conditions 500 and favourable weather, production upturns were estimated in the Syrian ASIA 495 496 Arab Republic and Iraq in 2020. -
Africa and Covid-19
POLICY BRIEF # 03, 2021 Africa and Covid- 19: Where Do We Go from Here? Executive Summary Africa was one of the last regions to be hit by the pandemic; it gave leaders and regional organisations a head start in setting up strategies to mitigate the spread of Covid-19. Nonetheless, the efforts must not stop there. Initially, it seemed like African countries have been spared the Covid-19 devastation that some experts predicted. Although statistics show that Africa’s death toll is lower than other regions, concerns have begun to arise as infections multiply and newer variants spread. Countries are experiencing severe second and third waves of the pandemic, with the most affected being Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Namibia, Zambia, Rwanda, and Tunisia. Unfortunately, global vaccine inequity has placed Africa behind in the vaccine rollouts. Once the outbreak subsides, African leaders must invest in research and policy responses that mitigate future outbreaks and deliver high-quality healthcare to Africans in secure environments. We suggest that regardless of Africa’s relative success in managing the virus, moving ahead, the continent needs not just a collection of policies but also a strategy that integrates emergency disease outbreaks into continental structures. Written by DR. OHENEBA A. BOATENG DR. LYNDA CHINENYE IROULO © United Nations University Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies, 2021 The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the view of the United Nations University Introduction like the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom have procured enough vaccines for The first case of Covid-19 in Africa was reported their populations, African countries have on 14 February 2020 in Egypt (Egypt Today, enough for merely half of their population. -
Crop Prospects and Food Situation #2, July 2020
#2 JULY 2020 ISSN 2707-2223 CROP PROSPECTS and Quarterly Global Report FOOD SITUATION COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD FAO assesses that globally 44 countries, of which 34 are in Africa, continue to be in need of external assistance for food. The effects of the Countries in need of COVID‑19 pandemic are causing wide‑ranging and severe negative external assistance impacts on food security, for food particularly through the loss of income. Conflicts and weather shocks remain critical factors that underpin the current high levels 44 of severe food insecurity. REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS Asia 1.4 AFRICA The risks associated with outbreaks of desert locusts in East Africa 0.9 Africa still remain high, although control Central America and the Caribbean 1.8 measures have contained impacts on crops and pastures. Cereal production South America 0.4 WORLD in Southern Africa recovered strongly in North America 13.2 2020, while adverse weather resulted Cereal production 2020 in a below‑average output in North Europe -2.9 over 2019 Africa. Planting of the 2020 crops are Oceania 45.6 (yearly percentage change) ongoing in West and Central Africa, and the early production outlook is World 3.0 mostly favourable. ASIA Production is set to increase + to an above‑average level in the 3.0% Near East in 2020, partly reflecting improved security conditions and (million tonnes) favourable weather in the Syrian Arab 500 Republic and Iraq, and a production recovery in Turkey. Generally conducive ASIA 495 weather conditions are expected to result in large harvests in the Far East, 493 Cereal production 490 while area contractions in CIS countries 485 is foreseen to result in a slightly forecast 2017 (%) 486 below‑average output. -
Ugo Panizza Experience Education Papers & Publications
Ugo Panizza Department of International Economics The Graduate Institute, Geneva Maison de la Paix, Chemin Eugène-Rigot 2 Case Postale 136, CH1211 Genève 21, Switzerland Tel: +41 22 908 59 52; Fax: +41 22 733 30 49 [email protected] Experience The Graduate Institute, Geneva. • — Professor of Economics, Pictet Chair in Finance and Development (September 2012-) — Director of the Centre for Finance and Development (September 2016-) — Director of the International Centre for Monetary and Banking Studies (September 2018-) — Editor in Chief of International Development Policy (2018-) — Deputy director of the Centre for Finance and Development (2012-2016) — Head of the Department of International Economics (2013-2016) United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Chief of the • Debt and Finance Analysis Unit (November 2006-September 2012) Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. Senior Economist (Au- • gust 1998—November 2006. On LOA from August 2000 to September 2001) American University of Beirut, Department of Economics. Visiting Professor (Au- • gust 2000—September 2001) The University of Turin, Department of Economics. Assistant Professor (October • 1996-August 1998) The World Bank, Africa Region. Economist (October 1995-October 1996) • The Johns Hopkins University. Lecturer and Teaching Assistant (September 1993- • September 1995) R&P Ricerche e Progetti. Junior Economist (July 1991-August 1992) • Other Consulting and Teaching Experience: The Graduate Institute, Geneva. Visiting Professor (Development Economics and Econo- • metrics, February 2008-June 2012) CORIPE Piemonte. Lecturer (Fall 1997) • Consulted with Inter-American Development Bank, World Bank, and World Intellectual • Property Organization. Executive Education courses in: Azerbaijan, Bosnia, China, Colombia, Egypt, Lebanon, • Peru, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda, and Vietnam. -
Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences Volume Author/Editor: Sebastian Edwards, editor Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-18497-8 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/edwa06-1 Conference Date: December 16-18, 2004 Publication Date: May 2007 Title: Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters Author: Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann, Ugo Panizza URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c0150 3 Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and Original Sin Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann, and Ugo Panizza 3.1 Introduction Recent years have seen the development of a large literature on balance sheet factors in financial crises.1 The balance sheet approach focuses on the impact of disturbances on the assets, liabilities, and net worth of house- holds, firms, government, and the economy as a whole and on the implica- tions for growth and stability. Some studies focus on the net worth effects of shocks to the exchange rate in the presence of foreign currency–denom- inated liabilities. Others look at liquidity or interest rate shocks when the tenor of a bank, firm, or country’s liabilities is shorter than the tenor of its assets. In some studies the propagation mechanism is the impact on con- sumption and investment of the change in net worth of households and nonfinancial firms. In others it is the impact on the liquidity and solvency of financial institutions and markets and hence on confidence in the finan- cial system. -
Amnesty International Report 2020/21
AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL Amnesty International is a movement of 10 million people which mobilizes the humanity in everyone and campaigns for change so we can all enjoy our human rights. Our vision is of a world where those in power keep their promises, respect international law and are held to account. We are independent of any government, political ideology, economic interest or religion and are funded mainly by our membership and individual donations. We believe that acting in solidarity and compassion with people everywhere can change our societies for the better. Amnesty International is impartial. We take no position on issues of sovereignty, territorial disputes or international political or legal arrangements that might be adopted to implement the right to self- determination. This report is organized according to the countries we monitored during the year. In general, they are independent states that are accountable for the human rights situation on their territory. First published in 2021 by Except where otherwise noted, This report documents Amnesty Amnesty International Ltd content in this document is International’s work and Peter Benenson House, licensed under a concerns through 2020. 1, Easton Street, CreativeCommons (attribution, The absence of an entry in this London WC1X 0DW non-commercial, no derivatives, report on a particular country or United Kingdom international 4.0) licence. territory does not imply that no https://creativecommons.org/ © Amnesty International 2021 human rights violations of licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode concern to Amnesty International Index: POL 10/3202/2021 For more information please visit have taken place there during ISBN: 978-0-86210-501-3 the permissions page on our the year. -
Can Europe Rely on Large Primary Surpluses to Solve Its Debt Problem?
Economic Policy Sixty-first Panel Meeting Hosted by the Bank of Latvia Riga, 17-18 April 2015 A Surplus of Ambition: Can Europe Rely on Large Primary Surpluses to Solve its Debt Problem? Barry Eichengreen (University of California, Berkeley) Ugo Panizza (The Graduate Institute, Geneva) The organisers would like to thank the Bank of Latvia for their support. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not those of the supporting organization. A Surplus of Ambition: Can Europe Rely on Large Primary Surpluses to Solve its Debt Problem? Barry Eichengreen Ugo Panizza * Abstract The EU’s Fiscal Compact foresees Europe’s heavily indebted countries running primary budget surpluses of as much as 5 per cent of GDP for as long as 10 years in order to maintain debt sustainability and bring debt-to-GDP ratios down to a target level of 60 per cent. Using an extensive sample of high- and middle-income countries, we show that primary surpluses this large and persistent are rare. There are just 3 (nonoverlapping) episodes where countries ran primary surpluses of at least 5 per cent of GDP for 10 years. Analyzing both case studies of exceptionally large and persistent surpluses and a less restrictive definition of (more numerous) surplus episodes, we find that large and persistent surpluses are more likely in small open economies with high debt-to-GDP ratios, where external pressure for adjustment is strong, and in countries with strong fiscal and political institutions capable of delivering majority governments and encompassing coalitions. Surplus episodes are more likely when growth is strong and the current account of the balance of payments is in surplus (savings rates are high). -
Modeling, Control, and Prediction of the Spread of COVID-19 Using Compartmental, Logistic, and Gauss Models: a Case Study in Iraq and Egypt
processes Article Modeling, Control, and Prediction of the Spread of COVID-19 Using Compartmental, Logistic, and Gauss Models: A Case Study in Iraq and Egypt Mahmoud A. Ibrahim 1,2,*,† and Amenah Al-Najafi 1,† 1 Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., H-6720 Szeged, Hungary; [email protected] 2 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt * Correspondence: [email protected] † These authors contributed equally to this work. Received: 13 October 2020; Accepted: 30 October 2020; Published: 2 November 2020 Abstract: In this paper, we study and investigate the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Iraq and Egypt by using compartmental, logistic regression, and Gaussian models. We developed a generalized SEIR model for the spread of COVID-19, taking into account mildly and symptomatically infected individuals. The logistic and Gaussian models were utilized to forecast and predict the numbers of confirmed cases in both countries. We estimated the parameters that best fit the incidence data. The results provide discouraging forecasts for Iraq from 22 February to 8 October 2020 and for Egypt from 15 February to 8 October 2020. To provide a forecast of the spread of COVID-19 in Iraq, we present various simulation scenarios for the expected peak and its timing using Gaussian and logistic regression models, where the predicted cases showed a reasonable agreement with the officially reported cases. We apply our compartmental model with a time-periodic transmission rate to predict the possible start of the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt and the possible control measures. -
Ernesto Schargrodsky), Emerging Markets Review, 2003, No
EDUARDO LEVY YEYATI E-mail: [email protected] Web: http://www.utdt.edu/profesores/ely Blog: http://yeyati.blogspot.com/ Education 1996 Ph.D. in Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. 1993 M. SC. in Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. 1991 Graduate Program in Economics, Instituto Torcuato Di Tella, Buenos Aires. 1989 B. Sc. in Civil Engineer, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires. Positions held 3/2011- Director, Elypsis Partners 7/2010- Senior Fellow, Brooking Institution 2/1999- Professor, Business School, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella 9/2009-9/2010 Global Strategist, Barclays Capital 11/2008-8/2009 Head of Emerging Markets Strategy, Barclays Capital 11/2007-11/2008 Head of Latin American Research, Barclays Capital 10/2006-9/2007 Senior Financial Sector Adviser, Latin American and the Caribbean, The World Bank 2/1999-10/2007 Director, Center for Financial Research (CIF), Universidad Torcuato Di Tella 4/2005-4/2006 Senior Research Associate, Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank 1/2002-7/2002 Director of Monetary and Financial Policies and Chief Economist, Central Bank of Argentina 1/2000-12/2001 Director, Executive Program in Finance, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella 10/1995-12/1998 Economist, International Monetary Fund 6/1991-6/1992 Director, Statistics Department, Social Security Agency, Argentina 3/1990-9/1991 Economic Advisor, Planning Department, Buenos Aires Metro, Buenos Aires Other professional activities • Member of the Board, Center for Public Policy Implementation (CIPPEC) (2011-) -
Can Europe Rely on Large Primary Surpluses to Solve Its Debt Problem?
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES A SURPLUS OF AMBITION: CAN EUROPE RELY ON LARGE PRIMARY SURPLUSES TO SOLVE ITS DEBT PROBLEM? Barry Eichengreen Ugo Panizza Working Paper 20316 http://www.nber.org/papers/w20316 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 July 2014 We thank Andrea Presbitero, Edward Robinson and Yi Ping Ng for comments and suggestions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2014 by Barry Eichengreen and Ugo Panizza. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. A Surplus of Ambition: Can Europe Rely on Large Primary Surpluses to Solve its Debt Problem? Barry Eichengreen and Ugo Panizza NBER Working Paper No. 20316 July 2014 JEL No. E0,E6,F0,F34 ABSTRACT IMF forecasts and the EU’s Fiscal Compact foresee Europe’s heavily indebted countries running primary budget surpluses of as much as 5 percent of GDP for as long as 10 years in order to maintain debt sustainability and bring their debt/GDP ratios down to the Compact’s 60 percent target. We show that primary surpluses this large and persistent are rare. In an extensive sample of high- and middle-income countries there are just 3 (nonoverlapping) episodes where countries ran primary surpluses of at least 5 per cent of GDP for 10 years.