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Crop Prospects and Food Situation #3, September 2020 #3 SEPTEMBER 2020 ISSN 2707-2223 CROP PROSPECTS and Quarterly Global Report FOOD SITUATION COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD FAO assesses that globally 45 countries, including 34 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly through the loss of income and jobs related to Countries in need of containment measures, have external assistance severely aggravated global food security conditions, as well as for food increasing the number of people in need of assistance. Conflicts and weather shocks remained critical factors affecting the current high levels of severe food 45 insecurity. REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS Asia 1.7 AFRICA Larger harvests are estimated in Southern Africa and East Africa, Africa 2.0 despite floods and outbreaks of desert locusts; although pest damages have Central America and the Caribbean 2.9 been largely contained, serious concerns South America 2.0 remain in some countries. Adverse WORLD weather reduced wheat outputs in North America 7.7 Cereal production 2020 North African countries, while cereal Europe -3.9 production in West Africa is foreseen at over 2019 a slightly above-average level. Protracted Oceania 45.6 (yearly percentage change) conflicts continue to limit growth in agricultural production in Central Africa. World 2.2 ASIA Widespread floods caused damage in several countries in Far East Asia, but rains across the subregion were + 2.2% also beneficial for paddy production and the output in 2020 is forecast (million tonnes) at a record high. In the Near East, reflecting improved security conditions 500 and favourable weather, production upturns were estimated in the Syrian ASIA 495 496 Arab Republic and Iraq in 2020. Rainfall 490 shortages generally kept wheat outputs Cereal production in CIS countries at below-average levels, 485 but barley production increased driven by forecast 2017 (%) 486 larger plantings. 480 LATIN AMERICA AND THE LIFDC 478 475 CARIBBEAN In South America, cereal Cereal production 2020 over 2019 production is forecast to reach a new 470 record high in 2020 underpinned by large maize plantings in Brazil and -3.3 465 Argentina, as weak currencies boosted export demand and incentivized farmers. 460 In Central America and the Caribbean, overall favourable weather conditions + 2.1 455 % supported good yields, and cereal 450 production in 2020 is expected at a 2018 2019 2020 forecast slightly above-average level. GIEWS - Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture Required citation: FAO. 2020. Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Quarterly Global Report No. 3, September 2020. Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb1101en The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. ISBN 978-92-5-133332-7 ISSN 2707-2223 [Print] ISSN 2707-2231 [Online] © FAO, 2020 Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial- ShareAlike 3.0 IGO license (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/legalcode). Under the terms of this license, this work may be copied, redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes, provided that the work is appropriately cited. In any use of this work, there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization, products or services. The use of the FAO logo is not permitted. If the work is adapted, then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons license. If a translation of this work is created, it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation: “This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation. The original [Language] edition shall be the authoritative edition." Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise provided herein. The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization http://www.wipo.int/amc/en/mediation/rules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL). Third-party materials. Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party, such as tables, figures or images, are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder. The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user. Sales, rights and licensing. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through [email protected]. Requests for commercial use should be submitted via: www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request. Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to: [email protected]. GIEWS CROP PROSPECTS AND FOOD SITUATION #3 SEPTEMBER 2020 CONTENTS COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD 2 GLOBAL CEREAL OVERVIEW 7 LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES’ FOOD SITUATION OVERVIEW 10 REGIONAL REVIEWS AFRICA - Overview 12 NORTH AFRICA 13 WEST AFRICA 14 CENTRAL AFRICA 16 EAST AFRICA 18 SOUTHERN AFRICA 21 ASIA - Overview 23 FAR EAST 24 NEAR EAST 27 CIS IN ASIA 29 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN - Overview 31 CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 32 SOUTH AMERICA 34 NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE AND OCEANIA - Overview 36 NORTH AMERICA 37 EUROPE 37 OCEANIA 39 STATISTICAL APPENDIX Table A1. Global cereal supply and demand indicators 40 Table A2. World cereal stocks 41 Table A3. Selected international prices of wheat and coarse grains 42 Table A4a. Estimated cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries in 2019/20 or 2020 43 Table A4b. Estimated cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries in 2019/20 or 2020 44 Table A5. Estimated cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries in 2020/21 45 2GIEWS CROP PROSPECTS AND FOOD SITUATION #3 SEPTEMBER 2020 COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD AFRICA (34 countries) - Burkina Faso - Burundi - Cabo Verde - Cameroon - Central African Republic - Chad - Congo - Democratic Republic of Congo - Djibouti - Eritrea - Eswatini Source: GIEWS - Ethiopia ** Disputed territories and boundaries in conformity with UN maps, see Terminology (page 6) - Guinea - Kenya - Lesotho AFRICA (34 COUNTRIES) July-September 2020 period. The areas of major - Liberia concern are southern flood-affected riverine - Libya areas, urban IDP settlements, parts of southern - Madagascar EXCEPTIONAL SHORTFALL IN Bay and Bakool regions of central Mudug and - Malawi AGGREGATE FOOD PRODUCTION/ Galgaduud regions and of northern Sanaag, Bari - Mali SUPPLIES and Woqooyi Galbeed regions. - Mauritania - Mozambique Central African Republic Zimbabwe - Namibia Conflict, displacements with food supply constraints Economic downturn, below-average cereal harvest, - Niger • According to the latest Integrated Food Security high food prices - Nigeria Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, the number • Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the number - Senegal of severely food insecure people (IPC Phase 3: of food insecure people was estimated at - Sierra Leone “Crisis” and above) was estimated at 2.4 million 4.3 million in the first half of 2020. - Somalia during the lean season (May-August 2020), a • The current number of food insecure is expected - South Sudan 15 percent increase compared to the 2.1 million to be higher and remain so until the start of the - Sudan forecast prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. next harvest from April 2021, due to the negative - Uganda effects of the pandemic and the associated - United Republic of Tanzania Kenya containment measures that have curbed - Zambia Floods, desert locusts households’ income and disrupted food supply - Zimbabwe • About 980 000 people were estimated to be chains. A second consecutive below-average ASIA (9 countries) severely food insecure in the April-July 2020 cereal harvest in 2020 and persisting high food - Afghanistan period, mainly located in northern and eastern prices are also significant food security stressors. - Bangladesh areas as a result of livelihood losses due to floods - Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in late 2019 and localized damages to crops and - Iraq pastures due to desert locusts. WIDESPREAD LACK OF ACCESS - Lebanon + - Myanmar Somalia Burundi - Pakistan Floods, civil insecurity, desert locusts, Floods, landslides - Syrian Arab Republic COVID-19 pandemic, lingering impact of • About 0.85 million people were estimated to be - Yemen consecutive unfavourable rainy seasons on severely food insecure in the June-August 2020
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