HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Tropical Storm Erika Information from NHC Advisory 6A, 8:00 AM EDT Wednesday August 26, 2015 Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph, and a west to west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over portions of the tonight and move near the Virgin Islands and on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind 45 mph Position Relative to 335 miles E of Antigua Speed: (Tropical Storm) Land: Est. Time & Region: Monday on Min Central Pressure: 1005 mb Coordinates: 16.2 N, 56.8 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 74+ mph 105 miles Bearing/Speed: W or 280 degrees at 17 mph Winds Extent: Speed: (category 1) Forecast Summary  The current NHC forecast map (below left) shows Erika moving toward Florida over the next several days and strengthening to a hurricane on Monday.  The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC’s forecast track and also shows Erika strengthening to a hurricane on Monday with maximum sustained winds between 74 and 95 mph. To illustrate the uncertainty in Erika’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday.  Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday morning.

Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Erika Forecast Windfield for Tropical Storm Erika (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 12:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

Hamilton ! ÏD Trop Dep Jacksonville TD ! TS ÏS Trop Storm Cat 1 !1 08-31 Ï Cat 1 Miami Nassau TropicTropic ofof CancerCancer Havana 08-30

Cuba Grand Turk

08-29 George Town Santo Domingo 08-28Road Town Port-au-Prince San Juan Saint John's Kingston Plymouth 08-27 Honduras 08-26 0250 500 1,000 Fort-De-France Miles Nicaragua CastriesBridgetown Oranjestad Kingstown Colombia Willemstad © Copyright 2015 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled Hazard and damage potential maps produced from third party sources and we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general guidance only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in by Willis are based on numerical modeling connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation. of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis”). Willis is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 1 of 2

Coastal Watches and Warnings A Tropical Storm Warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected, within 36 hours - is in effect for Anguilla, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible, within 48 hours - is in effect for , St. Martin,

and St. Barthelemy. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date

Benchmarking the 2015 Atlantic Season to Date 2015 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011

Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2015 Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2015 2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 8/26/15) 5 1 1 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2015

2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 8/26/14) 3 3 0 8 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8

1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Erika

2015 CSU season forecasts 4 TS Danny 8 2 1 (Colorado State University at August 4,‘15) TS Claudette TS Bill 2015 NOAA season forecasts HU Danny 6-10 1-4 0-1 STS Ana (August 6, 2015) M. Danny 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2015 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Erika is the fifth named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The graph above shows 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Last year saw only three named storms by August 26, but all were average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It hurricanes. shows, for example, that Erika became the fifth named storm of the season on August 24, which is a bit early for the season’s fifth named storm. It also shows that the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Potential and Average Remaining Risk

NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5)

formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average

are currently no such areas. remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Aug 26 is 79% for all hurricanes and 81% for major hurricanes.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on August 25, 2015 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)

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