ABSTRACT Title of dissertation: THE INTERNET AND POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONS: FORCE, TOOL, OR WILDCARD? Timothy E. Wedig, Doctor of Philosophy, 2007 Dissertation directed by: Professor Ernest J. Wilson Department of Government and Politics The effect of Internet usage on political organizations is largely assumed in the literature, which limits our understanding of the topic. Three dominant perspectives have developed, viewing technology alternately as a Force that transforms organizations (Techno-determinist), a Tool that organizations can utilize (Situationalist), or as a Wildcard that will have unpredictable effects even on similar organizations (Techno- skeptic). This dissertation examines each of these perspectives in detail and tests their predictive elements against case studies of four political organizations: the Dean for America campaign, MoveOn.org, and the Green and Reform Parties. Cases were chosen due to their innovative usage of the Internet, their outsider status, their status as contemporaries, and being active at the national level of American politics. The results demonstrate that while each perspective provides some insight, they are individually inadequate to explain the subject in its entirety and, therefore, a new approach to the topic is necessary. Suggestions for future research and steps to construct a new, more complete, model are presented along with recommendations for the application of these findings by political organizations. THE INTERNET AND POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONS: FORCE, TOOL, OR WILDCARD? by Timothy E. Wedig Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2007 Advisory Committee: Professor Ernest J. Wilson III, Chair Professor Ken Conca Professor Wayne McIntosh Professor Miranda Schreurs Professor Christopher Walsh ©Copyright by Timothy E. Wedig 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables iv Chapter 1: The Internet and Politics 1 Introduction 1 Rationale for this Study 6 Traditional Media and Political Organizations 13 Comparisons of The Internet with Traditional Media 19 Low Barrier to Entry 20 Content Availability 25 Interactivity of the Technology 27 Research Outline 31 Summary 33 Conclusion 35 Chapter 2: The Contending Literatures 37 Introduction 37 Analyses of Organizations and the Internet 40 Trailblazing Internet Usage by Political Groups 43 Political Organizations and Technology 45 The Internet and Political Organizations 49 Techno-determinists 55 Situationalists 61 Techno-skeptics 68 Applying the Models 77 Summary 78 Chapter 3: Research Design 81 Introduction 81 Case Selection 83 The Political Campaign: Chapter 4 89 The Political Advocacy Group: Chapter 5 90 Third Parties: Chapter 6 91 The Competing Theories 93 Variables and Indicators for Analysis 95 Internal Variables 96 External Variables 102 Summary 107 Conclusion 108 Chapter 4: The Dean for America Phenomenon 110 Introduction 110 Background 113 ii Technology and Dean for America 117 Dean for America Members 119 Organization Activities 125 Outcomes 132 Analysis 135 Conclusion 140 Chapter 5: MoveOn and the Netroots 143 Introduction 143 Background 148 Technology and MoveOn 151 MoveOn Members 153 Organization Activities 159 Outcomes 165 Analysis 169 Conclusion 175 Chapter 6: Third Parties – Green and Reform 177 Introduction 177 Background 181 Technology and the Green and Reform Parties 189 The Green Party and Technology 190 The Reform Party and Technology 194 Green and Reform Party Members 199 Green Party Members 201 Reform Party Members 204 Organization Activities 209 Green Party Activities 210 Reform Party Activities 215 Outcomes 218 Analysis 219 The Green Party 219 The Reform Party 226 Conclusion 233 Chapter 7: A Case-based Comparative Analysis of the Perspectives 235 Introduction 235 Testing the Techno-Determinist Perspective 237 Evaluating the Predictions of Techno-Determinists 244 Testing the Situationalist Perspective 245 Evaluating the Predictions of Situationalists 253 Testing the Techno-Skeptic Perspective 255 Evaluating the Predictions of Techno-Skeptics 263 Conclusion 264 Chapter 8: Conclusion 266 iii Introduction 266 Research Summary 269 A Consideration of the Perspectives 273 How the Internet Can Benefit Political Organizations 280 The Limits of the Internet for Political Organizations 283 Lessons for Political Organizations 285 Directions for Future Research 289 Conclusion 292 Works Cited 296 iv LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Predicted outcomes for organizations by Techno-determinists 61 Table 2.2: Predicted outcomes for organizations by Situationalists 68 Table 2.3: Predicted outcomes for organizations by Techno-skeptics 76 Table 2.4: Predicted Results for Variables by Perspective 80 Table 3.1: Predicted Results for Variables by Perspective 108 Table 4.1: Results for Dean for America Compared to Predicted Results 140 Table 5.1: Results for MoveOn Compared to Predicted Results 174 Table 6.1: Results for the Green Party Compared to Predicted Results 224 Table 6.2: Results for the Reform Party Compared to Predicted Results 231 Table 7.1: Predicted Results for Variables by Perspective 236 Table 7.2: Case Study Results Compared to Techno-Determinist Predictions 237 Table 7.2a: Hierarchy for Techno-Determinists 238 Table 7.2b: Internal Communications for Techno-Determinists 239 Table 7.2c: Member Intensity for Techno-Determinists 240 Table 7.2d: Activity for Techno-Determinists 241 Table 7.2e: Coalitions/Alliances for Techno-Determinists 242 Table 7.2f: Success for Techno-Determinists 243 Table 7.3: Case Study Results Compared to Situationalist Predictions 246 Table 7.3a: Hierarchy for Situationalists 247 Table 7.3b: Internal Communications for Situationalists 248 Table 7.3c: Member Intensity for Situationalists 249 Table 7.3d: Activity for Situationalists 250 Table 7.3e: Coalitions/Alliances for Situationalists 251 Table 7.3f: Success for Situationalists 252 Table 7.4: Case Study Results Compared to Techno-Skeptic Predictions 256 Table 7.4a: Hierarchy for Techno-skeptics 257 Table 7.4b: Internal Communications for Techno-skeptics 258 Table 7.4c: Member Intensity for Techno-skeptics 259 Table 7.4d: Activity for Techno-Skeptics 260 Table 7.4e: Coalitions/Alliances for Techno-Skeptics 261 Table 7.4f: Success for Techno-Skeptics 262 v Chapter 1 The Internet and Politics Introduction In late 1995, the first U.S. presidential campaign website went online. It was a modest website by current standards, consisting of a few photos and position statements, ordering instructions for campaign merchandise, and an email link for interested voters to contact the campaign. The candidate was well-known, having been in the public eye for nearly three decades, and he had run for president before. In preparation for the 1996 primaries, which would be an uphill struggle against Democratic incumbent President Bill Clinton, this candidate seized on the possibilities offered by the new technology of the Internet and blazed a trail that other campaigns would soon follow. Was this candidate Bob Dole, the eventual Republican nominee? Perhaps Pat Buchanan, a Republican challenger with many years of experience in media? Billionaire Steve Forbes, who had the resources to invest in the new medium and years of media experience? The answer is none of the above. The first presidential primary candidate to create a campaign website was comedian Pat Paulsen, running against incumbent Bill Clinton in his sixth presidential campaign. Paulsen didn’t win. He finished a distant second to Clinton in the primaries despite cementing his legacy as the first presidential candidate in cyberspace. There are two items of importance that can be drawn from Paulsen’s 1996 campaign, which remain consistent from the early 1990s through today in relation to political organizations and the Internet. First, the use of the Internet alone was not sufficient to tip the scales in favor 1 of an underdog challenger who lacked other resources and, it should be noted, credibility for the office he sought. Second, and even more important, top-tier candidates and high- profile political organizations have not been the first adopters of Internet technologies. Without exception, the first application of each Internet technology to politics has been undertaken by underdogs – political organizations that generally have few resources and little to lose by taking a chance on the potential that the technology poses. The first use of Internet technology by a political campaign was in 1992, when former California Governor Jerry Brown began using email as a campaign tool in his unsuccessful bid for the Democratic presidential nomination (PoliticsOnline, 2007). Brown, nicknamed “Governor Moonbeam” for his often radical ideas and novel perspectives, proved to be a visionary in his use of the Internet. By 1993, United States Senator Ted Kennedy had set up a website for his Senate office, and in 1994 United States Senator Dianne Feinstein from California launched the first dedicated campaign website for her reelection campaign (PoliticsOnline, 2007). Shortly after Paulsen’s website was launched most of the other candidates for their respective parties’ nominations had also launched websites, and the 1996 presidential election became the first national election to feature online campaigning. By 1998 candidate websites were commonplace, although challengers were more than twice as likely to use the Internet as were incumbents (64% to 28%) (Institute for Politics Democracy