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Options-Based Benchmark Indexes: Performance, Risk and Premium

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Options-Based Benchmark Indexes: Performance, Risk and Premium Prepared for O p t i o n s - Based Benchmark I n d e x e s : Performance, Risk and Premium Capture (June 1986- D e c . 2 0 1 8 ) : A n U p d a t e Wilshire Analytics March 2019 KEY HIGHLIGHTS (PART 1) This study analyzes performance of five option-based indexes over 32 ½ years, June 30, 1986 – Dec. 31, 2018, with comparisons to the risk and return profiles of asset classes typically found in investment portfolios of institutional and individual investors. Highlights of our findings include the following: • Total Return: Cumulative returns for two option-writing indexes (BXMD℠ and PUT℠) exceeded those of a wide variety of asset classes over most of the 32-year period, outperforming U.S. equities in both up and down markets. (Exhibit 2) • Returns and Risk in Sub-periods: Across various market regimes (dot-com era, Financial Crisis, low volatility bull market), option-based indexes were among the top three performing asset classes 21 times, versus 9 times for the S&P 500® Index. (Exhibits 3, 11) • Volatility: Volatility of all five option indexes was lower than for all other asset classes studied except fixed income, while delivering competitive returns. The PUT index’s annualized volatility was 9.9% vs. 14.9% for the S&P 500. (Exhibit 4) • Risk-adjusted Return: The BXMD index was highest on the mean/variance Efficient Frontier across all asset classes, with a higher return and lower volatility than the S&P 500. Compared to the S&P 500, all option-writing strategies had superior Sharpe ratios; the PUT index’s Sharpe ratio was 46% greater than S&P 500’s. (Exh. 4, 5) • Positive Alpha: Option-writing index strategies delivered positive alpha in most years, with high correlations to the S&P 500. The BXMD tracked the S&P 500 closely, with an overall correlation of 0.95 and an average 0.25% of alpha annually. (Exhibits 7, 8) • Liquidity: Average Daily Volume (notional) for S&P 500 options has more than quadrupled over the decade since the Financial Crisis, with sustained liquidity regardless of the level of market volatility levels. (Exhibit 11) 2 ©2019 Wilshire Associates. KEY HIGHLIGHTS (PART 2) • Implied Volatility Risk Premium (IVRP): Implied volatility, as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX®) exceeded realized volatility by at least 1% and as much as 54% in all but one of the past 21 years, rewarding option sellers. Average monthly gross premiums from writing options were fairly constant, with a small upward trend over the study period. (Exhibits 9a-9d) • IVRP and Higher Returns: The IVRP delivered higher returns for options-selling indexes across the time horizon of this study as compared to both the option-buying index and key size- and style-based indexes. • Drawdowns and Tail Risk: Income captured by option-selling strategies aims to enhance returns and cushion downside risk. Over the 32 years covered in this study, the option indexes’ maximum drawdowns ranged from 16% to 30% less than the S&P 500 Index’s maximum drawdown. (Exhibit 6) Option-selling indexes had fatter tails (i.e., higher kurtosis and negative skew). The options-based strategies analyzed in this study demonstrated more positive monthly returns (and fewer negative) than the S&P 500 over time. Additionally, both Sortino ratios and Stutzer index values were on par with, if not better than for the S&P 500 (Exhibit 8) as well, indicating positive risk-adjusted returns. • Performance in Different Regimes: The 32-year period covered various “regimes” characterized by high or low returns, and high or low volatility. Except for the lengthy bull market of 2010-Q3 2018, option-writing strategies produced superior Sharpe ratios compared to the S&P 500 in all sub-periods. (Exhibit 12) • Implications for Pension Plans: Allocating a portion of U.S. equity exposure to option-writing strategies can benefit risk/return profiles. Replacing 15% of S&P 500 exposure with BXMD or a combination of BXMD & PUT exceeded S&P 500-only monthly returns more than 50% of the time. (Exhibit 13) • Fund Analysis: Dozens of mutual funds/ETFs employ options-based strategies. Although differences in their strategies lead to a wide range of returns across funds, most use covered call-writing, which makes their average volatility lower than the S&P 500’s. (Exhibit 14) 3 ©2019 Wilshire Associates. SPOTLIGHT ON VOLATILITY • Throughout this presentation, we’ll investigate: – Key risk/return metrics for options-based index strategies versus the broad market, each other and other widely accepted investment approaches over time – Critical relationship between implied and realized volatility • What is volatility? – Synonymous with risk, volatility measures fluctuations – either expected (implied) or realized (historical) - in price • Option overlay strategies commonly provide exposure to two risk premiums – Equity risk and (implied) volatility • IVRP (Implied Volatility Risk Premium) – The notion that historically, implied volatility for index options often exceeds subsequent realized volatility; and, as a result, sellers hope to secure strong risk-adjusted returns by capitalizing on the discrepancy – Is well documented in the institutional investment community – Transfers risk from options buyers to sellers and is a potential source of portfolio diversification – Is driven primarily by diverging investor bias and supply/demand imbalances • Traditional volatility risk factor for stocks (more accurately refers to ‘low volatility’, i.e., an equity risk factor which aims to capture excess returns from stocks with lower than average volatility) is different than the IVRP covered in this presentation • Selling volatility can be a fruitful investment strategy, is similar to selling insurance and susceptible to underperformance in rising markets; use should be sized thoughtfully, with investment goals in mind 4 ©2019 Wilshire Associates. INDEX DESCRIPTIONS Exhibit 1a TICKER* DESCRIPTION Cboe S&P 500 BuyWrite Index. Strategy that purchases stocks in the S&P 500 index and each month sells at- BXM℠ the-money SPX index call options. Cboe S&P 500 30-Delta BuyWrite Index. Covered call strategy that holds a long position indexed to the S&P 500 BXMD Index and sells monthly 30-delta out-of-the-money SPX index call options. Cboe S&P 500 Covered Combo Index. Strategy sells a monthly at-the-money (ATM) SPX put option and a monthly 2% out-of-the-money (OTM) SPX call option. The short SPX put position is collateralized by a money CMBO℠ market account invested in Treasury bills and the 2% OTM SPX call is collateralized by the long SPX Index position. Cboe S&P 500 5% Put Protection Index. Strategy that holds a long position indexed to the S&P 500 Index and PPUT℠ buys a monthly 5% out-of-the-money SPX put option as a hedge. Cboe S&P 500 PutWrite Index. Strategy that purchases Treasury bills and sells cash-secured at-the-money put PUT options on the S&P 500 Index. *Unless otherwise noted, all indexes used in this presentation are Total Return indexes (return includes price change + dividends/interest). Visit www.cboe.com/benchmarks to see full descriptions of methodologies of these indexes. » » » Since 2002, dozens of benchmark indexes that use index options have been introduced. This study analyzes the performance of five indexes above. The BXM Index was the first major options-based benchmark index offered, and is probably the best known of all options-based benchmark indexes. 5 ©2019 Wilshire Associates. MARKET INDEXES Exhibit 1b INDEX NAME* DESCRIPTION Measures the performance of all U.S. equity securities with readily available price data Wilshire 5000® Index (including large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap and some micro-cap stocks). Represents the performance in USD of large- and mid-cap stocks across 21 developed MSCI EAFE® (US$) Index markets covering countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada. Tracks the performance of USD-denominated, fixed-rate U.S. Treasury securities, U.S. Bloomberg Barclays Agency securities, investment grade MBS and ABS, and investment grade corporate U.S. Aggregate Bond Index bonds and taxable municipal bonds with maturities > 1 year. Bloomberg Barclays Tracks the performance of USD-denominated, fixed-rate U.S. Treasury securities U.S. Treasury Index (excluding TIPS) - a component of the Aggregate index. A broad-based, production-weighted index representing the global commodity markets, S&P GSCI® constructed from the most liquid commodity futures. *Unless otherwise noted, all indexes used in this presentation are Total Return indexes. » » » In addition to the S&P 500® index, which represents the performance of Large-Cap U.S. equities, the analysis includes the above indexes. These reflect other key asset classes that form a typical investor’s opportunity set. 6 ©2019 Wilshire Associates. INDEX RETURNS OVER 32 YEARS Exhibit 2 Cumulative Total Returns June 30, 1986 – December 31, 2018 $30 $23.65 - Cboe S&P 500 30-Delta BuyWrite Index (BXMD) $20.85 - S&P 500 $25 $19.83 - Wilshire 5000 $20 $19.35 - Cboe S&P 500 PutWrite Index (PUT) $17.48 - Cboe S&P 500 Covered Combo Index (CMBO) $15 $14.19 - Cboe S&P 500 BuyWrite Index (BXM) $10 $8.08 - Cboe S&P 500 5% Put Protection Index (PPUT) $6.91 - Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index $5 $6.57 - MSCI EAFE (US$) $- $2.82 - S&P GSCI Jun-86 Jun-90 Jun-94 Jun-98 Jun-02 Jun-06 Jun-10 Jun-14 Jun-18 Returns Across Various Market Environments Select Years from 1998 – 2018 1998 2000 2001 2002 2007 2008 2009 2012 2016 2018 22.4% 0.1% -8.9% -13.2% 6.2% -31.3% 43.4% 11.0% 12.4% -5.4% Cboe S&P 500 30-Delta BuyWrite Index (BXMD) Cboe S&P 500 30-Delta BuyWrite Index (BXMD) 18.5% 13.1% -10.6% -8.6% 9.5% -26.8% 31.5% 8.1% 7.8% -5.9% Cboe S&P 500 PutWrite Index (PUT) 28.6% -9.1% -11.9% -22.1% 5.5% -37.0% 26.5% 16.0% 12.0% -4.4% S&P 500 Index » » » Over much of the past 32 years, in both up and down markets, two option-based indexes that sell options (BXMD and PUT) achieved higher returns than the US Equity market (large cap and total market), and higher than the option index that buys options (PPUT).
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