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Korea 2012: Politics, Economy and Society Korea 2012: Politics, Economy and Society Korea 2012: Politics, Economy and Society Volume 6 Korea Yearbook Edited by Rüdiger Frank James E. Hoare Patrick Köllner Susan Pares Associate Editors Stephen Epstein and Moon Chung-in LEIDEN • BOSTON 2012 This work was supported by the Academy of Korean Studies (publication grant AKS- 2012-P-01). ISSN 1875-0273 ISBN 978 90 04 23628 8 (paperback) ISBN 978 90 04 24301 9 (e-book) Copyright 2012 by Koninklijke Brill NV, Leiden, The Netherlands. Koninklijke Brill NV incorporates the imprints Brill, Global Oriental, Hotei Publishing, IDC Publishers and Martinus Nijhoff Publishers. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, translated, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior written permission from the publisher. Authorization to photocopy items for internal or personal use is granted by Koninklijke Brill NV provided that the appropriate fees are paid directly to The Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Suite 910, Danvers, MA 01923, USA. Fees are subject to change. This book is printed on acid-free paper. CONTENTS Preface .................................................................................................xi List of Refereed Articles Published since 2007....................................1 South Korea.....................................................................................1 1 Politics and foreign relations....................................................1 2 Economy...................................................................................1 3 Society......................................................................................2 North Korea.....................................................................................4 1 Politics and foreign relations....................................................4 2 Economy...................................................................................4 3 Society......................................................................................4 The Two Koreas: Connections and Comparisons ...........................5 Chronology of Events in the Korean Peninsula 2011...........................7 South Korea.....................................................................................7 North Korea...................................................................................11 Inter-Korean Relations and Six Party Talks ..................................15 South Korea in 2011: Domestic Politics, the Economy and Social Issues ............................21 Patrick Köllner 1 Introduction ............................................................................21 2 The April by-elections and their consequences......................23 3 The Seoul mayoral election and party mergers on the Left....27 4 Parliament and the state budget..............................................30 5 After Fukushima: South Korea affirms increased reliance on nuclear energy......................................31 6 South Korea’s economy in 2011: the big picture ...................33 7 Social issues ...........................................................................36 vi CONTENTS North Korea in 2011: Domestic Developments and the Economy........................................39 Rüdiger Frank 1 Introduction ............................................................................39 2 The 2011 joint New Year editorial.........................................40 2.1 Key topic: improvement of the people’s standard of living ...40 2.2 Highlights of the editorial.......................................................41 2.3 Ideology..................................................................................44 2.4 The leader(s)...........................................................................45 3 The annual parliamentary session ..........................................48 3.1 Overview ................................................................................48 3.2 Budget report..........................................................................48 3.3 The work of the Cabinet.........................................................51 4 Death of Kim Jong Il..............................................................52 5 Other events............................................................................53 5.1 Trade and investment .............................................................53 5.2 Economic development ..........................................................55 5.3 Mining and minerals...............................................................56 5.4 Telecommunications ..............................................................57 5.5 Science and technology..........................................................59 5.6 Tourism ..................................................................................60 5.7 Environmental issues..............................................................61 5.8 Traditionalism ........................................................................62 5.9 Administrative and personnel changes...................................63 6 Conclusion..............................................................................63 Relations Between the Two Koreas in 2011.......................................65 Sabine Burghart Introduction ...................................................................................65 1 Kim Jong Il’s death: a window of opportunity?.....................66 2 A change in the ROK’s policy: principled flexibility?...........67 3 A (w)hole of information?......................................................69 4 Inter-Korean economic exchanges: a mixed picture ..............71 5Mt Kŭmgang resort: lost forever? ..........................................74 6 Humanitarian aid further scaled down ...................................75 7 Empowerment of ROK’s second-class citizens .....................77 8 Defence, provocations and unification...................................78 9 Outlook...................................................................................80 CONTENTS vii Foreign Relations of the Two Koreas in 2011....................................81 James E. Hoare Introduction ...................................................................................81 1 Republic of Korea ..................................................................81 1.1 Relations with the United States.............................................81 1.2 Relations with China ..............................................................83 1.3 Relations with Japan...............................................................86 1.4 Other relations ........................................................................88 2 People’s Democratic Republic of Korea ................................89 2.1 The Six Party Talks and relations with the United States ......89 2.2 Relations with China ..............................................................92 2.3 Relations with Russia .............................................................94 2.4 Relations with Japan...............................................................95 2.5 Other relations ........................................................................95 KORUS, KOREU and beyond: South Korea’s Free Trade Drive......97 Patrick Flamm and Patrick Köllner Summary........................................................................................97 1 Export dependence and increasing regional competition.......98 2 South Korea’s Free Trade Agreements ................................101 3 Economic expectations and concerns...................................101 4 Political dimensions of the trade agreements .......................104 5 Outlook.................................................................................105 North Korea after Kim Jong Il: The Kim Jong Un Era and its Challenges.........................................109 Rüdiger Frank 1 Introduction ..........................................................................109 2 From death to funeral: events between 19 and 31 December 2011....................................................111 3 Does Kim Jong Un have the power, and will he keep it?.....116 4 How is Kim Jong Un’s legitimacy being built? ...................119 5 Do the Party and the military compete for power in North Korea?....................................................................122 6 How will China behave? ......................................................125 7 What will happen to North Korea’s nuclear programme?....127 8 What will Kim Jong Un’s policies be?.................................128 viii CONTENTS The Concept of Middle Power and the Case of the ROK: A Review ..........................................................................................131 Dong-min Shin 1 Introduction ..........................................................................131 2 Academic discourses on the concept of middle power.........133 2.1 Early development................................................................133 2.2 Trends in existing research...................................................134 2.3 Limitations of existing research ...........................................135 3 The Korean context ..............................................................138 3.1 The middle power discourse within ROK governments ......138 4 The ROK’s foreign
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