DOCSLIB.ORG

Evaluating Talent Acquisition in the NFL

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Evaluating Talent Acquisition in the NFL IQP-CEW-1302 Evaluating Talent Acquisition in the NFL An Interactive Qualifying Project Report Submitted to the faculty of Worcester Polytechnic Institute In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science Submitted By: Casey Barney Anthony Caravella Michael Cullen Gary Jackson Advised By: Professor Craig Wills March 1, 2013 Abstract Expert analysts and team managers provide their opinions on how well NFL teams and players have done, but these methods are generally based on experience and often times lack objectivity. Using the many statistics that are recorded for NFL players, we investigate an objective, metric-based method to evaluate the talent acquired in the NFL. With the creation of an effective method to grade talent using both a cost and success metric, we investigate many factors of the NFL including statistical trends in the NFL draft, misconceptions regarding the overvaluing or undervaluing of draft picks or specific positions, the effect of age on player performance, and even the simple question of which teams draft the best. ii Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................... ii List of Figures, Tables, and Equations .......................................................................................................... v 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Background ............................................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 - Statistical Analysis in Sports ............................................................................................................ 3 2.1.1 – Basketball .................................................................................................................................. 3 2.1.2 – Baseball ..................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.3 – Hockey ...................................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 - The NFL Draft and Free Agents ....................................................................................................... 7 2.2.1 – Origins of the NFL Draft .......................................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 – Compensatory Draft Picks ........................................................................................................ 8 2.2.3 – Value of Draft Picks .................................................................................................................. 9 2.2.4 – Free Agents ............................................................................................................................. 10 2.3 - Approximate Value ......................................................................................................................... 11 2.4 - Fantasy Points ................................................................................................................................. 15 2.5 - Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 17 3. Research Questions ................................................................................................................................. 19 3.1 - Team Related .................................................................................................................................. 19 3.2 - Position Related .............................................................................................................................. 19 3.3 - Draft Related ................................................................................................................................... 19 3.4 - Age Related .................................................................................................................................... 20 3.5 - Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 20 4. Methodology and Data Collection .......................................................................................................... 21 4.1 - Cost and Success Metric Evaluation ............................................................................................... 21 4.1.1 - Cost Metric Evaluation ............................................................................................................ 21 4.1.2 - Team Success Metric Evaluation ............................................................................................. 24 4.1.3 - Player Success Metric Evaluation............................................................................................ 26 4.2 - Adopted Grading Metrics ............................................................................................................... 27 4.2.1 - Adopted Cost Metrics .............................................................................................................. 27 4.2.2 - Adopted Success Metrics ......................................................................................................... 27 iii 4.3 - Appearance Score ........................................................................................................................... 28 4.4 - Grading Metric Comparison ........................................................................................................... 30 4.4.1 - Cost Metric Comparison .......................................................................................................... 30 4.4.2 - Success Metric Comparison .................................................................................................... 32 4.5 - Database Creation ........................................................................................................................... 37 4.6 - Microsoft Access ............................................................................................................................ 42 4.7 - Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 45 5. Results and Discussion ........................................................................................................................... 46 5.1 - Team Related .................................................................................................................................. 46 5.1.1 – Which Team Drafted the Best and Worst? ............................................................................. 46 5.1.2 – Does a Team’s Draft Success Translate into NFL Wins? ....................................................... 59 5.2 – Position Related ............................................................................................................................. 62 5.2.1 – Which position is the most valuable?...................................................................................... 64 5.2.2 – Which position is invested in the most? .................................................................................. 64 5.2.3 – Which positions are undervalued and overvalued in the NFL Draft? ..................................... 64 5.3 - Draft Related ................................................................................................................................... 65 5.3.1 - Are Higher Picks Overrated? ................................................................................................... 65 5.3.2 – Are Draft Trade Values Correct? ............................................................................................ 69 5.4 - Age Related .................................................................................................................................... 71 5.4.1 - How Does Age Affect Player Performance? ........................................................................... 71 5.4.2 - How Does Years Played Affect Performance? ........................................................................ 74 5.5 - Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 77 6. Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 78 7. Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................... 81 iv List of Figures, Tables, and Equations Figure 1: A screenshot of Team Salaries from USA Today. ...................................................................... 22 Figure 2: A screenshot of Player Salaries from USA Today. ..................................................................... 22 Figure 3: A chart from NFL Complete Statistics: 1997-2011- Standings and Team Stats. ........................ 25 Figure 4: The layout of data from NFL Complete Statistics: 1997-2011- Standings and Team Stats. ....... 25 Figure 5: Comparison of Draft Points to Round Points .............................................................................
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Faculty of Sciences Soccer Player Performance Rating Systems for the German Bundesliga
    Faculty of Sciences Soccer Player Performance Rating Systems for the German Bundesliga Jonathan D. Klaiber Master dissertation submitted to obtain the degree of Master of Statistical Data Analysis Promoter: Prof. Dr. Christophe Ley Department of Mathematical Statistics Academic year 2015{2016 Faculty of Sciences Soccer Player Performance Rating Systems for the German Bundesliga Jonathan D. Klaiber Master dissertation submitted to obtain the degree of Master of Statistical Data Analysis Promoter: Prof. Dr. Christophe Ley Department of Mathematical Statistics Academic year 2015{2016 The author and the promoter give permission to consult this master dissertation and to copy it or parts of it for personal use. Each other use falls under the restrictions of the copyright, in particular concerning the obligation to mention explicitly the source when using results of this master dissertation. Foreword This master thesis completes the one-year advanced master program in Statistical Data Analysis. It has been an intensive, interesting and, above all, knowledgeable year in which I was able to sharpen my statistical thinking, to practice and acquire new prob- lem solving skills and to make beneficial contact to other statisticians and researchers. Therefore I want to thank all professors, docents and teaching assistants very much for their effort and excellent work during this year. Special thanks go to professor Christophe Ley for his guidance during the thesis project as well as for his lessons and teaching in other courses which will certainly prove to be valuable for our future career. Contents 1 Abstract 1 2 Introduction 2 2.1 Rating System Types . .4 2.2 Statistic Based Rating Systems .
    [Show full text]
  • Weekly Release Vs December 8, 2016 5:25 P.M
    WEEKLY RELEASE VS DECEMBER 8, 2016 5:25 P.M. PT | ARROWHEAD STADIUM OAKLAND RAIDERS WEEKLY RELEASE 1220 HARBOR BAY PARKWAY | ALAMEDA, CA 94502 | RAIDERS.COM WEEK 14 | DECEMBER 8, 2016 | 5:25 P.M. PT | ARROWHEAD STADIUM VS. 10-2 9-3 GAME PREVIEW THE SETTING The Oakland Raiders will travel on a short week to play a Date: Thursday, December 8, 2016 primetime divisional game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Ar- Kickoff: 5:25 p.m. PT rowhead Stadium on Thursday, Dec. 8 at 5:25 p.m. PT. Thursday’s Site: Arrowhead Stadium (1972) contest between the two long-time rivals pits the AFC West’s top Capacity/Surface: 79,541/Natural Grass two teams, with the Raiders leading the division at 10-2 and the Regular Season: Chiefs lead, 59-51-2 Chiefs in second at 9-3. The game begins a stretch run for the Postseason: Chiefs lead, 2-1 Raiders that sees them play three of their final four games on the road, with all three road games coming against AFC West oppo- nents. The game will be the final matchup between the Raiders and Chiefs this year, as the Chiefs won the first game in Oakland RAIDERS ON THE ROAD back in Week 6. Last week, Oakland earned a win at home, com- This season, the Raiders have come up big away from their home ing back from a 15-point deficit in to beat the Buffalo Bills, 38-24. stadium. In six games played away from Oakland (five road games Kansas City won a road game against the Atlanta Falcons, 29-28.
    [Show full text]
  • Pdf-Ywqbwrye1042
    N. the ex-Marine and three-time Emmy winner worked at television stations in the California Bay Area; Raleigh, an American questionably detained in North Korea for more than a year. no, puffy elbow pad for protection. He was ejected in the 116-108 overtime loss at the AAC on Dec. leaving the game in the fourth quarter and sitting out Game 3.DALLAS -- A strained right hip flexor limited backup center to three minutes during the ' win in Tuesday's Game 4 of the NBA Finals The NBA is known for its grueling. something that helped their turnaround from being blown out in Sacramento last week to coming right back and blowing out Golden State on Friday. The first was a 3-pointer from from up top on a blown rotation by the Rockets. rolling to the basket, He's a different guy now. I don't think they care if they lose by one or 50. MLB, and argue. the challenge is how quickly everyone can get on the same page. You don't want it to be a long adjustment. How about ? so the Mavs would have to overpay to prevent Minnesota from matching. but was outscored 10-0 down the stretch. You wake up," Billups said. I just finally got to a point last year before I got hurt where I was figuring it out. Deng had started Tuesday night after sitting out Monday's practice with flu-like symptoms." Deng added that he tried to play thorough the injury, The shot sliced Dallas' lead to six, Calif.
    [Show full text]
  • Lawyer Milloy
    the TAILGATE EXPERIENCE 5454Sunday, February 2, 2020 THE PLAYERS TAILGATE IS RATED THE #1 EVENT TO ATTEND ON SUPER BOWL SUNDAY. Bullseye Event Group’s exclusive Players Tailgate at the Super Bowl has earned the reputation as the best Super Bowl pre-game experience. Tailgate guests eat, drink and enjoy entertainment from top DJ’s, prominent sportscasters, celebrities and dozens of active NFL players. Described as a culinary experience in itself, the Players Tailgate features open premium bars and all-you-can-eat dining with gourmet dishes. America’s most recognizable celebrity chef, Guy Fieri, returns as head chef for the 2020 tailgate, joined by top U.S. caterer, Chef Aaron May and a host of additional celebrity chefs. THE VENUE The 2019 Players Tailgate was held in the heart of downtown Atlanta next to Centennial Park. The venue was conveniently located within blocks of the security entrance for Super Bowl 53. This 5 Star facility, built by Falcons owner Arthur Blank, boasted walls of glass, marble bars, velvet banquettes, premium audio and plenty of screens to catch pre-game coverage. The Players Tailgate at the 2020 Super Bowl in Miami will be held in a similar glass pavilion, conveniently located near Hard Rock stadium. 5-STAR CUISINE A 5-star culinary experience truly transforms any event. Add the best and most recognizable chefs in America and you get The Players Tailgate. We have a celebrated lineup of chefs who will prepare a lavish 5-star food experience for all of our guests. A ONCE IN A LIFETIME EXPERIENCE CALLS FOR ONCE IN A LIFETIME CUISINE.
    [Show full text]
  • Seminoles in the Nfl Draft
    137 PRO FOOTBALL HALL OF FAME All-time Florida State gridiron greats Walter Jones and Derrick Brooks are used to making history. The longtime NFL stars added an achievement that will without a doubt move to the top of their accolade-filled biographies when they were inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame inAugust, 2014. Jones and Brooks became the first pair of first-ballot Hall of Famers from the same class who attended the same college in over 40 years. The pair’s journey together started 20 years ago. Just as Brooks was wrapping up his All-America career at Florida State in 1994, Jones was joining the Seminoles out of Holmes Community College (Miss.) for the 1995 season. DERRICK BROOKS Linebacker 1991-94 2014 Pro Football Hall of Fame WALTER JONES Offensive Tackle 1995-96 2014 Pro Football Hall of Fame 138 PRO FOOTBALL HALL OF FAME They never played on the same team at Florida State, but Jones distinctly remembers how excited he was to follow in the footsteps of the star linebacker whom he called the face of the Seminoles’ program. Jones and Brooks were the best at what they did for over a decade in the NFL. Brooks went to 11 Pro Bowls and never missed a game in 14 seasons (all with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), while Jones became the NFL’s premier left tackle, going to nine Pro Bowls over 12 seasons with the Seattle Seahawks. Both retired in 2008, and, six years later, Jones and Brooks were teammates for the first time as first-ballot Hall of Famers.
    [Show full text]
  • Evaluating Talent Acquisition Via the NFL Draft
    Evaluating Talent Acquisition Via the NFL Draft by Casey Barney Anthony Caravella Michael Cullen Gary Jackson Craig E. Wills WPI-CS-TR-13-01 March 2013 1 Executive Summary In this work we apply data analytics to the National Football League Draft enabling us to pose and seek answers to a number of interesting questions regarding the success of drafting players over the period 2000 through the most recent 2012 draft and league season. The analysis is based on measuring the cost of acquiring players through the draft and the success of these players once acquired. We employ two primary metrics for measuring the cost of drafted players. The first simply uses the round in which a player is taken while the second uses a table of draft pick values initially developed within the NFL in the early 1990s. We also employ two metrics for measuring the success of drafted players where the first assigns a value to each player’s performance for a season. The second was developed as part of this work and is based on a weighted score for games played, games started and recognition as a top player. Using these metrics, we examine many questions of interest. We first examine which teams have drafted the best using combinations of cost and success metrics for all 32 NFL teams. If we ignore costs then Green Bay is the team that has drafted the best players since 2000 with New England and San Francisco close behind. In contrast, Washington has acquired the least amount of talent via the draft.
    [Show full text]
  • Even Although Analysis Nearly Alley Plus Region We Mostly Look at Road Sprinting Cross-Country Escaping Jumping,New Football Jerseys, Etc,Nfl Jersey
    Even although analysis nearly alley plus region we mostly look at road sprinting cross-country escaping jumping,new football jerseys, etc,nfl jersey. sports as its principal elements. Even so, throwing movie games are likewise a significant constituent of track plus area games,nfl jersey cheap. Among the well known alley plus field games of power, strength plus nerve is of shot put. Shot place is primarily an Olympic sport plus is regarded as an vigorous sport. Because the caption suggests this tin be a throwing game which involves placing a shot. In other words, the player has to dart (place) a cumbersome metal ball (shot) in outward path plus as far as you maybe tin Shot put is actually a game of strength, the actor needs to put on proper shoes namely tin carry his heaviness plus enhance swift movements though putting the shot. Selecting the maximum efficacious shot put shoes is really a important go which tin be made a lot easier in the details given below So,clutch studying.The best access to Select Shot Place ShoesThere are a few items namely you impartial have to know equitable ahead you go looking as the ideal shot put footwear as yourself. To start with, consider the foot size,nfl stitched jerseys. This gets much more certain in case you are a female In relation to picking out the best shot put footwear as ladies,argyley anchor uggs clearance, they really need to know precise dimension of their feet in man shoes size. It tin be simply for numerous times, footwear as shot put are accessible only in male dimension.
    [Show full text]
  • Rams Possess Eight Picks in 2017 Nfl Draft
    RAMS POSSESS EIGHT PICKS IN 2017 NFL DRAFT Los Angeles has seven selections, plus a compensatory pick in this year’s draft NFL DRAFT SET FOR APRIL 27-29 RAMS, YOU’RE ON THE CLOCK The 2017 NFL Draft will be the 82nd annual meeting of National Football The Los Angeles Rams hold eight League franchises to select newly eligible football players. It is scheduled to selections in the 2017 NFL Draft, the be held in front of the Philadelphia Museum of Art from Thursday, April 27 to 81st draft in franchise history and the Saturday, April 29. The draft returns to Philadelphia for the first time since 1961. 51st time drafting as the Los Angeles Rams. The player selections will be announced from an outdoor theatre built on the famous Rocky Steps, marking the first time an entire NFL draft has been held The Rams and General Manager Les outdoors. Snead, who is entering his sixth draft guiding the Rams franchise, pos- The first round begins at 5 p.m. PT on Thurs., April 27. The second and third sess eight selections in rounds two rounds will be held on Fri., April 28 starting at 4 p.m. PT, and the draft will con- through six, including two fourth- clude with rounds 4-7 on Sat., April 29, beginning at 9 a.m. PT. round selections and two sixth-round picks. There will be 253 selections over the draft’s seven rounds, including 32 com- pensatory selections that have been awarded to 16 teams that suffered a net Snead will collaborate with first-year loss of certain quality unrestricted free agents last year.
    [Show full text]
  • 49Ers Hall of Fame
    10 18 INSIDE 5 this ISSUE Charles Haley: | 5 The Man With 5 Rings Alumni Updates | 10 The 49ers Remember | 16 22 28 John Brodie: A Bay Area | 18 Legend from Preps to Pros The 49ers Museum | 22 Presented by Sony The Edward J. DeBartolo, Sr. | 28 49ers Hall of Fame Alumni Photos | 34 49ers New Coaching Staff | 36 36 2015 NFL Draft | 40 DEAR 49ERS ALUMNI, As you know, the offseason training program is now winding down. A lot of great work has been put in over the last few months by our players, coaches and staff, and we are all looking forward to getting the 2015 season started in late July. It is a very exciting time for everyone in our organization and we hope it is for our alumni as well. Every day we walk into the practice facility at 4949 Marie P. DeBartolo Way, we are reminded of the great tra- dition of this franchise and the people, such as our alumni, who have helped to write its proud history. It was important to this organization to reinforce our feelings of gratitude and appreciation for your contri- butions and continued support before the season gets underway. The dedication you have shown to this fran- chise and the sacrifices you and your families have made are certainly recognized and will never be forgotten. We would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Charles Haley on his upcoming induction into the Pro Foot- ball Hall of Fame and the Edward J. DeBartolo, Sr. 49ers Hall of Fame. In the game of football, acknowledge- ments such as those not only celebrate the great individual accomplishments of one man, but they also celebrate the contributions of those around him – his teammates and coaches.
    [Show full text]
  • Past Match-Ups & Game Notes
    Turkish Airlines EuroLeague PAST MATCH-UPS & GAME NOTES REGULAR SEASON - ROUND 8 EUROLEAGUE 2018-19 | REGULAR SEASON | ROUND 8 1 Nov 20, 2018 CET: 01:00 LOCAL TIME: 20:00 | SINAN ERDEM DOME. ANADOLU EFES ISTANBUL MACCABI FOX TEL AVIV 23 ANDERSON, JAMES 3 O'BRYANT, JOHNNY Forward | 1.98 | Born: 1989 Forward | 2.06 | Born: 1993 4 BALBAY, DOGUS 0 RAY, KENDRICK Guard | 1.85 | Born: 1989 Guard | 1.88 | Born: 1994 @Dogusbalbay 8 BATUK, BIRKAN 5 ROLL, MICHAEL Forward | 1.96 | Born: 1990 Guard | 1.98 | Born: 1987 @BirkanBatuk 1 BEAUBOIS, RODRIGUE 28 BLACK, TARIK Guard | 1.95 | Born: 1988 Center | 2.06 | Born: 1991 6 BIRSEN, METECAN 8 AVDIJA, DENI Forward | 2.05 | Born: 1995 Guard | 2.00 | Born: 2001 10 BITIM, ONURALP 4 CALOIARO, ANGELO Guard | 1.96 | Born: 1999 Forward | 2.03 | Born: 1989 42 DUNSTON, BRYANT 15 COHEN, JAKE Center | 2.03 | Born: 1986 Forward | 2.10 | Born: 1990 0 LARKIN, SHANE 12 DIBARTOLOMEO, JOHN Guard | 1.82 | Born: 1992 Guard | 1.83 | Born: 1991 22 MICIC, VASILIJE 7 KANE, DEANDRE Guard | 1.96 | Born: 1994 Guard | 1.96 | Born: 1989 18 MOERMAN, ADRIEN 10 LEVI, NIMROD Forward | 2.02 | Born: 1988 Forward | 2.08 | Born: 1995 12 MOTUM, BROCK 2 PARGO, JEREMY Forward | 2.08 | Born: 1990 Guard | 1.88 | Born: 1986 @bmotum12 21 PLEISS, TIBOR 9 TYUS, ALEX Center | 2.21 | Born: 1989 Center | 2.03 | Born: 1988 @AlexTyus23 15 SANLI, SERTAC 1 WILBEKIN, SCOTTIE Center | 2.12 | Born: 1991 Guard | 1.88 | Born: 1993 3 SAYBIR, YIGITCAN 50 ZOOSMAN, YOVEL Forward | 2.03 | Born: 1999 Guard | 2.00 | Born: 1998 PAST MATCH-UPS & GAME NOTES EUROLEAGUE MEDIA EUROLEAGUE 2018-19 | REGULAR SEASON | ROUND 8 2 Nov 20, 2018 CET: 01:00 LOCAL TIME: 20:00 | SINAN ERDEM DOME.
    [Show full text]
  • GAME RELEASE #Kcvsaz Mark Dal Ton - Sr
    PRESEASON WEEK 2 GAME RELEASE #KCvsAZ Mark Dal ton - Sr. Vice Presid ent, Med ia Rel ations Ch ris Mel vin - Sr. Director, Med ia Rel ations Mike Hel m - Sr. Manag er, Med ia Rel ations Chase Russell - Manager, Corporate Communications Imani Suber - Media Relations Coordinator KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS State Farm Stadium | August 20, 2021 | 5:00 PM THIS WEEK’S PREVIEW ARIZONA CARDINALS - 2021 SCHEDULE The Cardinals welcome the defending AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs to State Preseason Farm Stadium on Friday for a matchup that will air na onally on ESPN. Follow- Date Opponent Loca on AZ Time ing this game Arizona is next in front of its home fans in Week 2 of the regular season vs. Minnesota on Sept. 19. Aug. 13 DALLAS State Farm Stadium W, 19-16 Aug. 20 KANSAS CITY+ State Farm Stadium 5:00 PM Highligh ng Friday's game will be the reunion of Cardinals head coach Kliff Aug. 28 @ New Orleans Caesars Superdome 5:00 PM Kingsbury and Chiefs All-Pro QB Patrick Mahomes. Before he was a fi rst-round dra pick, NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP, Mahomes played three seasons at Regular Season Texas Tech during Kingsbury's me as head coach. In 2016, Texas Tech led the Date Opponent Loca on AZ Time na on in total off ense and Mahomes led the na on in passing yards. Sep. 12 @ Tennessee Nissan Stadium 10:00 AM While the Cardinals and Chiefs have met just 13 mes during the regular sea- Sep. 19 MINNESOTA State Farm Stadium 1:05 PM son, they have had twice as many matchups (26) during preseason.
    [Show full text]
  • Euroleague Bylaws) Will Have to Comply with the Following Criteria in Order to Maintain Its Licence Or Apply for One
    2015-2016 EUROLEAGUE BASKETBALL BYLAWS EUROLEAGUE BYLAWS VERSION: 14 October 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS EUROLEAGUE CLUB LICENSING RULES Chapter I: Definitions, Object and Euroleague Licences 9 Chapter II: A Licences 13 Chapter III: B and C Licences 18 Chapter IV: Transfer of the Licence, Change of City and Transfer of Shares 22 Chapter V: Rights and Obligations of the Clubs, Special Obligations and 23 Economic Rules Chapter VI: Final Provisions 25 Transitory Provision: Requirements of the Clubs with an A Licence 26 Appendices Appendix I: Financial Stability and Fair Play Regulations 29 Appendix II: A Licence Contract 43 Appendix II: B C Licence Contract 53 Appendix III: Bank Guarantee Model 63 Appendix IV: Declaration of Sound Financial Position 65 Appendix V: Declaration of Sound Legal Position 67 EUROLEAGUE REGULATIONS Chapter I: General Regulations 71 Chapter II: Registration of Clubs 75 Chapter III: Registration of Teams 80 Chapter IV: Competition 87 Chapter V: Calendar, Dates and Times of the Games 96 Chapter VI: Games 100 Chapter VII: Arenas 106 Chapter VIII: Marketing Regulations 132 Chapter IX: Media Regulations 156 Chapter X: Social Media Regulations 174 Chapter XI: Audiovisual Regulations 177 Chapter XII: Game of the Week 180 Chapter XIII: Other Obligations of the Clubs 186 Chapter XIV: Officials 196 Chapter XV: Euroleague Basketball Representation 197 Chapter XVI: Arena Access 198 Chapter XVII: Doping Control 199 Chapter XVIII: Financial Regulations 200 Chapter XIX: Communications 201 3 Additional Provisions First: Technical Rules
    [Show full text]