IQP-CEW-1302 Evaluating Talent Acquisition in the NFL An Interactive Qualifying Project Report Submitted to the faculty of Worcester Polytechnic Institute In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science Submitted By: Casey Barney Anthony Caravella Michael Cullen Gary Jackson Advised By: Professor Craig Wills March 1, 2013 Abstract Expert analysts and team managers provide their opinions on how well NFL teams and players have done, but these methods are generally based on experience and often times lack objectivity. Using the many statistics that are recorded for NFL players, we investigate an objective, metric-based method to evaluate the talent acquired in the NFL. With the creation of an effective method to grade talent using both a cost and success metric, we investigate many factors of the NFL including statistical trends in the NFL draft, misconceptions regarding the overvaluing or undervaluing of draft picks or specific positions, the effect of age on player performance, and even the simple question of which teams draft the best. ii Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................... ii List of Figures, Tables, and Equations .......................................................................................................... v 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Background ............................................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 - Statistical Analysis in Sports ............................................................................................................ 3 2.1.1 – Basketball .................................................................................................................................. 3 2.1.2 – Baseball ..................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.3 – Hockey ...................................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 - The NFL Draft and Free Agents ....................................................................................................... 7 2.2.1 – Origins of the NFL Draft .......................................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 – Compensatory Draft Picks ........................................................................................................ 8 2.2.3 – Value of Draft Picks .................................................................................................................. 9 2.2.4 – Free Agents ............................................................................................................................. 10 2.3 - Approximate Value ......................................................................................................................... 11 2.4 - Fantasy Points ................................................................................................................................. 15 2.5 - Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 17 3. Research Questions ................................................................................................................................. 19 3.1 - Team Related .................................................................................................................................. 19 3.2 - Position Related .............................................................................................................................. 19 3.3 - Draft Related ................................................................................................................................... 19 3.4 - Age Related .................................................................................................................................... 20 3.5 - Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 20 4. Methodology and Data Collection .......................................................................................................... 21 4.1 - Cost and Success Metric Evaluation ............................................................................................... 21 4.1.1 - Cost Metric Evaluation ............................................................................................................ 21 4.1.2 - Team Success Metric Evaluation ............................................................................................. 24 4.1.3 - Player Success Metric Evaluation............................................................................................ 26 4.2 - Adopted Grading Metrics ............................................................................................................... 27 4.2.1 - Adopted Cost Metrics .............................................................................................................. 27 4.2.2 - Adopted Success Metrics ......................................................................................................... 27 iii 4.3 - Appearance Score ........................................................................................................................... 28 4.4 - Grading Metric Comparison ........................................................................................................... 30 4.4.1 - Cost Metric Comparison .......................................................................................................... 30 4.4.2 - Success Metric Comparison .................................................................................................... 32 4.5 - Database Creation ........................................................................................................................... 37 4.6 - Microsoft Access ............................................................................................................................ 42 4.7 - Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 45 5. Results and Discussion ........................................................................................................................... 46 5.1 - Team Related .................................................................................................................................. 46 5.1.1 – Which Team Drafted the Best and Worst? ............................................................................. 46 5.1.2 – Does a Team’s Draft Success Translate into NFL Wins? ....................................................... 59 5.2 – Position Related ............................................................................................................................. 62 5.2.1 – Which position is the most valuable?...................................................................................... 64 5.2.2 – Which position is invested in the most? .................................................................................. 64 5.2.3 – Which positions are undervalued and overvalued in the NFL Draft? ..................................... 64 5.3 - Draft Related ................................................................................................................................... 65 5.3.1 - Are Higher Picks Overrated? ................................................................................................... 65 5.3.2 – Are Draft Trade Values Correct? ............................................................................................ 69 5.4 - Age Related .................................................................................................................................... 71 5.4.1 - How Does Age Affect Player Performance? ........................................................................... 71 5.4.2 - How Does Years Played Affect Performance? ........................................................................ 74 5.5 - Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 77 6. Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 78 7. Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................... 81 iv List of Figures, Tables, and Equations Figure 1: A screenshot of Team Salaries from USA Today. ...................................................................... 22 Figure 2: A screenshot of Player Salaries from USA Today. ..................................................................... 22 Figure 3: A chart from NFL Complete Statistics: 1997-2011- Standings and Team Stats. ........................ 25 Figure 4: The layout of data from NFL Complete Statistics: 1997-2011- Standings and Team Stats. ....... 25 Figure 5: Comparison of Draft Points to Round Points .............................................................................