SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST

2018

Somerset County Council County Hall, Somerset, TA1 4DY

March 2019

BI Children's Team (March 2019) BI Children's Team (March 2019) 2 SOMERSET SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST - 2018

PART 1 - COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

PART 2 - FORECAST DATA

APPENDIX A: BASIS OF SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST CALCULATIONS

APPENDIX B: GUIDANCE ON USE OF THE FORECAST DATA

INDEX OF FORECASTS

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 3 PART 1: COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

The 2018 forecasts of pupil numbers for state-funded schools in Somerset are contained in this document. This first part provides a commentary on the trends in pupil numbers with the forecast figures set out in Part 2.

New forecasts are produced annually based on the latest number on roll and pre- school children data. It also enables any new information on school organisation or new housing developments to be included and allows the forecasts to react to changes in parental preference. The forecast data in this document has been calculated using as the base data, the actual number on roll for October 2018 (as supplied by schools as part of the Department for Education (DFE) School Census).

For primary schools the forecasts are produced for the period up to 2023, for middle school areas the forecasts the period up to 2027, and for secondary school areas up to 2029. A summary of the way that the forecasts are calculated is set out in Appendix A of this document.

The forecast data are available for use as a general resource by all schools, local authority staff, and those with a wider interest in school pupil numbers. The forecast totals for each school will appear as part of the Somerset School Organisation Plan which is a key part of the LAs statutory responsibility for planning of school places. As part of that statutory duty, the forecast data is reported to the DFE as part of the annual School Capacity Collection return (SCAP). The DFE use the pupil forecast data to inform the basic need funding allocation which assists LAs in providing the school places required to meet future demand.

Key Headlines ►The end of the era of large increases in primary aged pupils is in sight. Numbers are forecast to stabilise in 2019 and 2020 with a decline beginning in 2021; ►Some individual primary schools are already seeing small declines in pupil numbers; ►An increase in the numbers of pupils in the secondary sector. Numbers started increasing in 2017 and are forecast to increase until 2025; ►Substantial growth in secondary school number on roll is forecast in , Taunton and Yeovil reflecting previous growth in primary school numbers in these areas; ►16+ pupil numbers slightly lower than previously forecast; ►A forecast increase in the total of mainstream pupils each year until 2021, with the numbers plateauing in 2022 and 2023; ►A further increase in the number of pupils in Somerset’s special schools;

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 4 1. COUNTY LEVEL TRENDS

Calculation of County Forecasts: 1.1 In line with established practice the forecasts at County level (which appear in Part 2, page 5) have been calculated separately rather than by aggregation of the individual school forecasts. This provides a means of validating the school forecasts to avoid serious over/under-estimating.

Primary aged pupils (Years R to 6) 1.2 The number of primary aged pupils has been increasing since 2009. In October 2018 there were 41388 pupils, an increase of 263 (0.6%) since 2017. This increase is in line with the 2017 forecasts with an actual roll that is 41 above the forecast number – a difference of 0.1%. In line with the forecast trend, this is the 9th successive year that primary aged pupil numbers have increased. It means that there are now 4607 more pupils in Somerset than there were in 2009 – an increase of 12.5%.

1.3 In 2019 and 2020 the number of primary aged pupils is forecast to plateau with little change from the 2018, roll before beginning a decline in 2021 as slightly smaller numbers are forecast to enter the reception year compared to the numbers that will be leaving year 6. This decline continues through the rest of the forecast period (ie to 2023).

1.4 The recent rise in pupil numbers in the primary age range in Somerset is part of a national trend. This is demonstrated in the accompanying Chart A, which plots the number of pupils in Somerset and since 2001. The forecast levelling off and slight decline in primary numbers that is forecast in Somerset is consistent with the general national trend. DFE national pupil projections*1 are based on ONS national population projections and include a forecast of the national birth-rate giving data up to academic year 2026/27. By contrast, the forecasts for Somerset are based largely on the data for the living resident population available from the Somerset Health Authority so only extend to 2023/24. If Somerset follows the forecast national trend there is unlikely to be any overall increase in primary age pupils before 2027. Although there could be some local increases where a community is expanding.

1.5 Chart A shows that the primary actual roll in Somerset has climbed slightly less steeply than the DFE national projections in the last few years and the forecast trends indicate that Somerset pupil numbers in the primary age range will fall a little more quickly than the national trend. This may reflect the predominantly rural nature of Somerset compared to the DFE national trend which, by definition, includes the more urban areas of the Country as well.

1.6 The number of pupils entering Somerset primary schools at reception increased quite noticeably from 2007, resulting from previous increases in the birth rate. This has driven a large increase in the number of pupils in the primary sector. The 2015 and 2016 reception year groups were the largest recorded in Somerset both being over 5900 pupils. In line with the forecast, the actual 2017 and 2018 reception years have been lower – both below 5800. The forecast reception year groups for the remainder of the forecast period show that numbers are continuing to fall from the 2015 peak. By 2022, the extent of forecasts covered by live population data, the reception year is forecast to be 5452, a total that is 500 fewer than in 2015. This forecast decline is a result of a fall in the birth rate across the County and whilst the forecast data includes an

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 5 expected gain from migration in the pre-school year groups, this does not offset the fall in the number of reception pupils.

Table 1: Change in KS1 and KS2 pupils 2009 – 2021

KS1 KS2 Total Difference Difference Difference Pupils Pupils Primary 2009 (A) 15899 20882 36781 2050 2078 4128 2016 (A) 17949 22960 40909 -358 837 479 2018 (A) 17591 23797 41388 -218 203 -15 2019 (F) 17373 24000 41373 -232 -137 -369 2021 (F) 17141 23863 41004

Table 2: Change in secondary aged pupils 2003 – 2023

Years Years Total Difference Difference Difference 7-11 12+ Secondary 2003 (A) 29363 1702 31065 -4573 202 -4371 2016 (A) 24790 1904 26694 717 -299 418 2018 (A) 25507 1605 27112 903 68 971 2020 (F) 26410 1673 28083 1324 74 1398 2023 (F) 27734 1747 29481

Table 1 & 2 Notes: (a) The actual data covers all state-funded schools in Somerset open at each Census date. The forecast data reflects current provision even though this may be different from the historical establishment of schools, eg where new provision has been established or where schools have closed. (b) The differences shown in the above tables are from the previous point (eg 2009 to 2016, or 2018 to 2019). A = Actual; F = Forecast

1.7 As is shown in Table 1, there was a large increase in the number of KS1 pupils between 2009 and 2016 - a rise of 2050. The current birth rate cycle will leave 2016 as the high point of KS1 pupil numbers with the 2018 total already 358 fewer than the 2016 figure. As well as the strategic need to ensure the total number of school places in each area, this has had to be achieved whilst maintaining the legal class size limit at KS1 at each school. The number of

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 6 KS2 pupils increased by 2915 between 2009 and 2018 and a further increase of 203 is forecast for 2019 but the number is forecast to decline thereafter. From 2019 to 2021 there is a forecast decrease of 137 pupils at KS2, which combined with the fall at KS1, means that the overall primary age pupil roll is forecast to fall by 369. With a further fall forecast, the total roll is expected to be 1280 lower in 2023 than it was in 2018.

Secondary age pupils (Years 7 to 11): 1.8 From a peak in 2003 there was a decline in the number of secondary aged pupils for 13 consecutive years as smaller year groups worked their way from the primary to the secondary sector. The number of pupils in years 7 to 11 dropped by 4573 (a fall of 15.6%). 2017 saw the first increase in secondary aged pupils which has continued in 2018 as forecast: the 2018 roll being 490 higher than in 2017 (a 2.0% rise). Secondary pupil numbers are forecast to continuing rising until at least 2023 at which point they are forecast to level off and then decline towards the end of the forecast period in 2027. As Table 2 shows there is a forecast increase of 903 pupils by 2020 and a further increase of 1324 by 2023 – an increase of 8.7% from the 2018 roll. Which means that by 2023 there is a forecast increase of 2227 pupils above the current roll.

1.9 Chart A shows the recent trend in pupils in years 7-11 in Somerset and equivalent England data, alongside forecast data. It shows that whilst the Somerset data has followed the national trend line there has been an increasing divergence over the years. As early as 2020 the national figures are forecast to overtake the previous peak in numbers from 2003, but in Somerset at no point does the forecast increase in pupils reach the previous local peak. The Chart shows that the forecast Somerset increase in secondary aged pupils is less dramatic than the national trend.

Secondary age pupils (Years 12 and over): 1.10 In October 2018 there were 1605 pupils in secondary school sixth forms, 5 fewer than forecast, representing 2.3% of the roll of mainstream schools in Somerset. (Most 16+ provision in Somerset is in the F.E. college sector so students are not on a school roll. Fewer than 1 in 5 pupils in year 11 return to study in a school sixth form).

1.11 There has been considerable fluctuation in the sixth from roll in Somerset schools in recent years. In 2003 there were 1702 pupils in mainstream school sixth forms which by 2014 had increased to 2219 (an increase of 30.4%). This increase was a result of existing schools offering new sixth form provision as well as an increase in the retention rate of pupils leaving year 11. [The Education and Skills Act 2008 increased the minimum age at which young people in England can leave learning to 17 from 2013 and to 18 from 2015]. However, from 2015 the number of sixth from pupils has fallen across the county with four successive years when numbers have fallen by over 100 pupils compared to the previous year. Table 2 shows that the 2018 roll of 6th forms was 299 less than in October 2016.

1.12 Some of the change in recent years has been a result of the closure of small sixth form provision at some schools as well as smaller year groups reaching the end of KS4, but there also appears to be a trend of school sixth form provision in Somerset becoming less attractive as a post-16 option, as is

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 7 evidenced by a fall in the rate of staying-on at many schools. The October 2018 6th form roll at Huish Episcopi , Wells Blue, , and Sexey’s School is noticeably lower than it has been in recent years.

1.13 The forecast change in the number of pupils in school sixth forms largely reflects the size of the year groups reaching year 11 rather than any expected change in choices made by students. There is a modest forecast increase in school sixth form numbers throughout the forecast period beginning in 2020. Revisions of the forecast data in future years will reflect any new trends when they emerge or any changes in provision when they are confirmed. The 6th form age groups are traditionally more complex to forecast (due to the range of options open to students after completing year 11), so there is always a greater margin of error in this forecast data than for the other secondary age groups.

Total Mainstream Roll (Pupils aged 4-17): 1.14 The October 2018 roll for all mainstream pupils in Somerset stood at 68500. This is 579 more than in October 2017, a 0.85% increase. The total roll is 45 less than the forecast total, a difference of 0.07%, which lies comfortably within the target of +/- 0.5% which is the benchmark for local authority level forecasts.

1.15 From 2003 the overall number of pupils in the County’s schools went into decline for a period of 10 years. From a peak of 70642 pupils numbers fell year each year to reach 65770 in 2010 – a fall of 4872 (6.9% of the total roll). Since the low point of numbers in 2010 there has been an increase in the total roll with numbers have risen by 2730. With secondary aged pupil numbers now forecast to increase each year and the primary age range forecast to remain broadly at their current level before beginning a decline, there is a forecast increase in pupil numbers of 383 for 2019. There is a subsequent forecast increase in the total of mainstream pupils each year until 2021 with the total roll in 2022 and 2023 forecast to show little change from the 2021 total. Even with this growth in pupil numbers the total roll is not forecast to exceed the 2003 peak for the duration of the current forecasts. The forecasts indicate that the total roll will peak at 69580 in 2021 which is 1062 below the 2003 peak.

1.16 The overall trend in total school roll shown in the 2018 forecasts is in line with that which has been previously forecast and follows the general trend of the DFE national projections. It can be seen from the Chart B that the forecast increase in pupil numbers in Somerset is not quite as pronounced as that expected for England as a whole, in the same way that there has been a slightly faster rate of increase in the national data up to 2018 than has been seen in Somerset.

1.17 With pupil numbers rising overall, and particularly at secondary level, as well as the fundamental need to accommodate additional pupils, there are also likely to be pressures elsewhere in terms of the demand for support services such as for pupils with SEND and those requiring home to school transport.

Special Schools and PRUs: 1.18 The October 2018 School Census recorded 675 pupils in state-funded special schools in Somerset. Notwithstanding the new provision at the Mendip School the number of pupils in special schools in the County has risen sharply. In 2012

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 8 the combined roll of the 8 special schools was 431. The new places opened at The Mendip School, together with greater demand at existing Somerset schools, has brought an increase of 244 pupils over a 6-year period, a 56.6% increase. (This figure relates only to pupils on the roll of the state-funded special schools in Somerset and so excludes pupils with SEN placed in non- maintained and independent special schools).

1.19 Detailed forecasts for individual special schools are not calculated but a summary forecast indicates that the total roll is likely to continue rising to reach 761 by 2022. The 2018 special school roll is the equivalent of 0.98% of mainstream roll, which has increased from 0.65% in 2012. The forecast increase in special school rolls is based on the expectation that there is going to be an overall increase in the total school roll (due to historical birth rate change) and there will be a consequent rise in the special school roll. This is particularly relevant at a time of rising roll in the secondary sector with typically 70% of the special school roll in year 7 and above. In addition, there is an expectation that the proportion of the school population that are in the LA’s special schools will continue to increase slightly in the forecast period in line with the recent increases. The planned commissioning of further new state-funded provision in Somerset is likely to bring further increases.

1.20 The October 2018 School Census recorded 87 pupils on the roll of a Pupil Referral Unit (PRU), an increase from 66 in 2017. In light of this increase, the forecast number of pupils registered at a PRUs in Somerset has been set higher than in previous years at around 50 pupils. (It should be noted that the PRU roll is particularly subject to fluctuation throughout the year and the figures quoted relate to those pupils who are only on the register of a PRU. In addition, many of the pupils that PRUs educate remain on a school roll so are counted at their mainstream establishment instead).

Migration 1.21 School pupil migration is calculated from the net change of pupil numbers as a result of pupils moving on and off a school roll outside of the principle scheduled transfer points. It is not a simple reflection of a single factor (eg the local housing market) but it is potentially a combination of multiple influences (see appendix A for a more detailed explanation).

1.22 The County forecasts include an allowance for net pupil migration. At primary level the forecast of migration averages +123 per year (against an average of the last 3 years of +125). At secondary level (years 7 to 11) the historical level of net migration is noticeably lower than at primary level with a net loss recorded in many years. The average forecast secondary level migration is -167 per year which is more than the average loss of the last 4 years, but less than the loss seen in both 2017 and 2018.

1.23 The County rate of pupil migration shows some fluctuation from one year to another but even so gains from migration have only a small effect on the overall school age population of the County. Changes in the birth rate are a much larger influence on the overall trend. Migration can, of course, have a more noticeable impact at a local level. Table 3 compares the change in pupil numbers from 2017 to 2018 in Somerset: it shows that net migration has contributed to the change at primary level although the change is less than that

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 9 resulting from the change in the birth rate. At secondary level, where there is a net loss from migration, the overall increase resulting from the birth rate has been reduced by the negative net migration.

Table 3: Change in Pupil numbers - 2017 to 2018 (October School Census)

Years R to 6 Years 7 to 11 Net Migration 81 -211 Historical Birth Rate Change 182 701 Total net change 263 490

2. SCHOOL FORECAST DATA: PRIMARY SCHOOLS

2.1 With the overall County-wide fall in primary pupil numbers now emerging towards the end of the forecast period, the trend is becoming clearer in the forecasts for the planning areas and for individual schools. Whilst there are still some forecast increases they tend to be quite small (especially compared to some of the increases that have been seen in recent years). Equally some of the forecast decreases are often quite small and often within forecasting margin of error over a 5-year period. Even so it would require a major change of events or a revision to the source data to bring a major increase in most areas.

2.2 The areas with the largest forecast changes in numbers overall are examined in more detail below. (Unless otherwise stated all figures quoted below are calculated using the October 2018 actual as the base figure with forecast increases/decreases in total roll to the corresponding census point in October 2019, 2023 etc ). The totals quoted for each planning area include all the rural and town schools in the area.

Bridgwater 2.3 Across the Bridgwater area there have been some large increases in the number of primary school pupils with a rise of 526 from 2014 to 2018 – a 9.5% increase. A further increase of 73 is forecast by 2020, following which there is forecast to be a fall in roll, so that by 2023 there will be 181 fewer pupils than in 2018. The recent increase has been mainly the result of an increase in the local birth rate as well as some gains from net pupil migration (in part linked to some of the large housing developments that have taken place). The forecast roll shows that the number of pupils in the reception year from 2021 will be lower than the number leaving in year 6 resulting in total pupil numbers falling slightly each year. This is despite further forecast gains from migration still being included in the forecasts. The new school at Bridgwater Northgate which opened in September 2017 and had 107 on roll by October 2018, is forecast to reach 218 by 2023.

Burnham-on-Sea 2.4 There is a forecast increase of 58 pupils in this area by 2023. The birth rate in this area is forecast to generally maintain the number of pupils at about their current level; with some of the early phases of the Brue Farm housing

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 10 development expected to add to the number of pupils. Most of the increase is forecast to occur in the Highbridge and area.

Street 2.5 There is a forecast fall of 137 pupils by 2023 as the lower birth rate of recent years brings a drop in the number of reception pupils from 2020.

Taunton 2.6 The Taunton area has seen an increase of 549 pupils from 2014 to 2018, a 9.4% increase. Further increases are forecast which will see an additional 132 pupils by 2023, a rise of 2.0%, although most of this increase is forecast to occur by 2020, with only a slight increase for the rest of the forecast period. At Norton Fitzwarren School, which has already doubled in size since 2014, there is a forecast increase of 76 pupils 2023. While the new school at Nerrols Farm which is due to open in September 2019 is forecast to have 181 pupils on roll by 2023. The forecast increase in pupil numbers in both schools includes a major contribution from new housing developments taking place locally.

Wellington 2.7 There were increases in pupil numbers in this area up to 2016. Since then they have stabilised slightly but there is a further forecast increase of 55 pupils by 2023. Most of the increase is forecast to occur in the town area where the recent steady birth rate is combined with major housing developments, which are now under construction.

West Somerset 2.8 Both the and sub-areas are forecast to see a fall in pupil numbers as the slightly lower birth rate brings smaller number of reception pupils. Across both areas there is a total forecast fall of 116 pupils by 2023.

Wincanton 2.9 Following an increase in numbers up to 2017 there is now a period of falling numbers expected in this area which sees a forecast drop of 121 pupils by 2023.

Wiveliscombe 2.10 The forecasts for this area show a fall throughout the forecast period which is calculated at 292 pupils by 2023 – a 22.1% decrease. As with many rural areas there is now a general decline in numbers forecast resulting from recent falls in the birth rate. In addition, the bulge in pupil numbers at Cotford St Luke which arose from many families moving into the new houses following development of the village, has now passed its peak.

Yeovil 2.11 There has been an increase of 201 primary school pupils in this area from 2014 to 2018, a 5.0% increase. Modest further growth of 37 is forecast by 2020 but beyond that numbers are forecast to level out and decline so that by 2023 there are forecast to be 77 fewer pupils on roll than in 2018. The most noteworthy increases are forecast to take place at the two new primary schools, Kingfisher and Primrose Lane. These schools became operational in September 2016 in temporary locations but are both now located on their permanent sites. They are both forecast to grow incrementally as they admit a new year group at reception each year together with gains of pupils in other year groups. By 2023 Kingfisher School is forecast to have 222 pupils and Primrose Lane 201.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 11

Falling rolls in Primary Schools 2.12 Within each area some of the schools may not be forecast to see any noticeable change in number on roll. Where there is a decline in number on roll forecast across an area this is usually a marginal change year on year. Schools will need to be conscious of the medium to longer term effect of a declining roll in terms of the consequences for school budget calculations based on number on roll and the need to manage the resulting change. 99 primary schools have fewer pupils in 2018 than in 2017 and 104 are forecast to have fewer in 2019 than in 2018.

Small Primary Schools: 2.13 As an authority which serves a largely rural area, Somerset traditionally has a much higher proportion of small schools when compared to the England average. The October 2018 School Census recorded 34 primary schools with a roll of 60 or fewer pupils. The number of small schools is forecast to increase slightly, with 3 more schools forecast to have a roll of 60 or below by 2023. (All forecasts have a margin of error which increases the further ahead that the data extends. This forecast increase in the number of small schools should be seen an indication of the general fall in primary age numbers that is forecast to take place. For any small school a relatively slight change in absolute pupil numbers, either an increase or a decrease, can be quite marked in terms of the impact on the total roll and could put the school above or below this small school measure.

3. SCHOOL FORECAST DATA: SECONDARY AND MIDDLE SCHOOLS

3.1 It has been apparent for some years that the most noticeable growth in pupil numbers has been occurring in the Taunton Bridgwater and Yeovil planning areas, with the more rural planning areas tending to see less growth. This was first apparent in the primary school roll and the larger year groups that have boosted the primary sector are now entering the secondary sector. Each of the three key areas is studied in more detail in the following paragraphs.

3.2 Unlike most of the parts of the County, in each of these areas there can be a real opportunity to exercise parental preference at the entry to secondary school. The area forecast covers to the full 11-year period but the individual school level forecasts are only published for 5 years since it is considered that there are too many uncertainties (eg changes in parental preference or changes in admission arrangements) to produce school level forecasts with any real confidence beyond that time. Whilst there should be a fair degree of certainty over the change in total roll in these areas, it is possible that the managed response to the increase in numbers could provide an alternative scenario as far as individual schools are concerned. Even within the 5-year school forecasts there is scope for variation from the forecasts eg if a lot of pupils are granted admission on appeal.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 12 Bridgwater 3.3 Following a period of declining numbers, the secondary school roll in Bridgwater has been increasing since 2014. This has been the result of larger year groups entering the four secondary schools at year 7. With only a slight dip in 2016 there has been a steady increase in the year 7 cohort each year. This increase is forecast to continue and peak in 2022 when the forecast year 7 admission year group is 862. This single year group is 252 higher than the corresponding year group in 2013.

3.4 The rising number of pupils entering the secondary system each year has seen the total roll rise from 3281 in 2013 to 3529 in 2018, an increase of 248 pupils. With larger year groups still to enter the secondary system the total roll is forecast to keep increasing until 2026. The forecast at that point is 4159, an increase of 630 pupils above the 2018 roll and 878 above the roll in 2013. Chart C shows that, even though the peak of admissions occurs in 2022 the total roll keeps on increasing as the number of pupils forecast at year 7 is still more than the number leaving in year 11. (All figures and comments are exclusive of Brymore School which by its nature attracts pupils from a wider geography than the Bridgwater area).

3.5 The overall increase in pupil numbers is reflected in the forecasts for individual schools within Bridgwater (forecasts for individual schools are only calculated until 2023 so don’t reflect the full period of increased pupil numbers). The school forecasts reflect the general rise in pupil numbers with an expectation that schools that do not currently fill to their admission number will have fewer unfilled places. This means that whilst all four schools are forecast to show some increase the largest increases forecast are at Robert Blake and Bridgwater College Academy.

3.6 There is a general increase in year 7 pupils across the whole area with few signs of especially large bulge year groups within an individual secondary school area. The Robert Blake school is likely to see growth from within its own catchment, which is partly the consequence of the increased roll in the primary phase following the recent expansion of south Bridgwater.

3.7 For 2019/20 academic year the number of secondary pupils in the Bridgwater area is forecast to increase by 108, which includes an increase of 55 year 7 pupils compared to 2018. For 2020/21 there is a further increase of 87 pupils in total roll, with the number of year 7 pupils 6 higher than in 2019/20.

3.8 The changes in secondary number on roll in the Bridgwater area that are forecast to occur reflect the number of pupils now in the primary schools which are the result of past changes in the birth rate and recent migration. Gains from migration linked to current housing developments will have only a minor impact and will not change the trend that is already in place.

Taunton 3.7 Chart D shows that there has been a steady increase in secondary ages pupil numbers in the Taunton area that began in 2013. Numbers have increased by 191 from 2013 to 2018 and are forecast to increase by a further 714 by 2025. At that point the forecasts show that numbers will remain reasonably stable until 2029 (the end of the forecast period). The highest forecast roll is that calculated for 2029 although it is only 37 above the 2025 forecast. Such a

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 13 difference is within the range of the forecast margin of error over the intervening period so the exact point of the peak in the Taunton area could be revised slightly depending on how events play out. (All figures and comments are exclusive of the small 6th form provision at Heathfield).

3.8 In terms of year 7 admissions, there is a forecast increase in roll each year until 2022, followed by a slight decline with a new peak in 2025. There are forecast increases in the year 7 roll at each of the individual schools in Taunton. At this sees the school having fewer spare places within its admission number each year, whilst the forecasts reflect the planned expansion of Bishop Fox’s School with an increase in the size of the year 7 admission year groups from 2020. There is also a forecast increase at Heathfield School which in part reflects the recent urban expansion on that side of the town and the larger year groups that are in the local primary schools as a result.

3.9 For 2019/20 academic year the total number of secondary pupils in the Taunton area is forecast to increase by 107, which includes an increase of 34 year 7 pupils compared to 2018. For 2020/21 there is a further increase of 134 pupils with the number of year 7 pupils 20 higher than in 2019/20.

3.10 As with Bridgwater, the key driver of the forecast trend in secondary school pupil numbers in Taunton is the past changes to the birth rate and the number of pupils now in the primary sector. If there are new housing developments that come forward, this may slightly tweak the number of pupils but it wouldn’t be expected to change the underlying trend.

Yeovil 3.11 The geography of Yeovil means that there are fewer pupils in secondary schools than in Bridgwater or Taunton and it has a smaller rural catchment area compared to the other two areas. The combined roll of the three secondary schools saw a generally declining number of pupils until 2017, with an increase recorded in 2018. With the low point of the Yeovil secondary school roll in 2017, there is a now forecast increase each year which means that there are forecast to be 306 more pupils by the peak in 2025. Beyond that, the number of pupils is forecast to remain stable until 2028 with a small decrease forecast in 2029. However, it should be remembered that this is at the extreme range of the forecasts and there is scope for some minor revision of the forecast data in the intervening years. The key trend is determined by historical changes in the birth rate and the number of pupils currently in the primary phase which means that whilst the numbers may be revised slightly the overall trend is unlikely to differ significantly from that which is forecast.

3.12 Yeovil is currently in a period of generally rising number of year 7 pupils. Chart E shows that there is not an increase in every year, but from the low point of entries to secondary school in 2013 to the forecast peak in 2023 there will be an increase in the admission year group of 120 pupils.

3.13 Unlike Bridgwater or Taunton there has been a much closer alignment between the roll of the individual secondary schools. The forecasts indicate that the increase in year 7 roll will be shared between the three schools. The most noticeable forecast increase in total is at Westfield School which currently has small year groups in years 10 and 11, when these leave the school they are

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 14 forecast to be replaced by much larger year groups at year 7 which will bring a rise in total roll of 147 pupils by 2021.

3.14 For 2019/20 academic year the total number of secondary pupils in the Yeovil area is forecast to increase by 59, which includes an increase of 31 year 7 pupils compared to 2018. For 2020/21 there is a further increase of 71 pupils although the number of year 7 pupils is 19 lower than in 2019/20.

Rural Area Secondary Schools 3.14 Whilst the largest increases in secondary school rolls are forecast to be in the town areas there is still some increase in the pupil numbers in schools serving some of the less urban planning areas. However, these tend to be less dramatic and some of the smaller secondary schools are not forecast to see any substantial growth during the forecast period. Outside of the three town areas considered above, the most noteworthy forecast increases are: • Chard Holyrood – numbers are forecast to increase by 124 pupils by 2023. Most of this increase comes in the mainstream roll as larger year groups enter the secondary school at year 7, with a forecast rise of 105 pupils in years 7-11 by 2023. The 6th form has a roll of 175 at October 2018 and this is forecast to increase slightly as larger year groups reach year 11. • College – pupil numbers have fallen in recent years from 1218 in 2014 to 1099 in 2018. A recovery of that loss is now forecast with numbers reaching 1224 by 2024. A contributory factor in the recent decline in numbers has been the opt out of pupils from the middle schools – especially to in Bath & North East Somerset. The forecasts continue to reflect this current trend in parental preference. •Street Crispin – there is a steady increase forecast in the next 5 years which means that by 2023 this school is forecast to have 100 more pupils in years 7 to 11 than in 2018. Beyond 2023 numbers are forecast to decline and return to their current level by 2028. •Steiner Academy Frome - since 2015 there has been a secondary school age provision at this school which is forecast to increase as it fills in all year groups. In October 2018 there were 106 secondary aged pupils although the school won’t reach its maximum secondary aged roll until 2026 when it is forecast to have 252 secondary aged pupils. (This school has no planned admission to the secondary phase – its growth is based on pupils currently in the primary phase moving into the secondary phase. The total roll by 2026 in years R-11 is likely to be around 600 pupils).

School 6th Forms 3.15 As noted in section 1.15 the overall number of pupils in school 6th forms have fallen in recent years. Most 16+ provision in Somerset is in the college sector with the majority of secondary schools having no 6th form provision. The forecast number of 6th form pupils is based on the interaction of the number of pupils reaching year 11 and the retention rate into years 12 and 13 (the point at which there are other options available to students). The forecasts make no attempt to second guess future changes in the local 16+ course offer either at the schools or elsewhere; instead the calculations are undertaken using broadly similar staying on rates that each school has had in recent years.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 15 3.16 On the basis that schools with 6th forms are located to mainly serve the more rural parts of the County there is unlikely to be any large increase in the number of 6th form students at individual schools which is the result of demographic change. The smallest 6th form roll is at with a roll of 40 at October 2018; by comparison the largest school 6th forms in Somerset are 288 at Frome College, 285 The Kings of Wessex School, 225 at The Blue School.

4. FURTHER INFORMATION

Background Information 4.1 Full supporting papers and source data are available on request. Further detail about the calculation of the forecast data appears in Appendix A and a guide to the use of the forecast data in Appendix B. In addition, the following document was used in the writing of this commentary, and may provide further related information of interest:

*1 National pupil projections – future trends in pupil numbers: July 2018 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-pupil-projections-july-2018

School Organisation Plan: 4.2 The 2018 forecasts will feature in the annual Somerset School Organisation Plan which will be updated to provide the latest data on population forecasts alongside school net capacities.

Revision of Data: 4.3 The forecasts of pupil numbers are produced annually based on each school’s number on roll data for the current academic year, together with any changes in assumptions required (eg to take account of legislative change or new housing developments coming forward). Whilst there are no plans to make any in year revisions to the forecast data, in exceptional circumstances, if there were to be major changes to the base data in the course of the year, a revision would be considered in advance of the scheduled update. Forecasts based on data obtained from the October 2019 School Census are expected to be released in spring 2020. Any enquiries or feedback can be given at any time using the contact information below.

TONY VERRIER Information Officer

Tel: 01823 355961 email: [email protected] team e-mail [email protected]

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 16 Chart A: Somerset & England School Population - Actual & Forecast

55000

50000 England: Primary aged pupils

45000 Somerset: Primary aged pupils

40000

35000 England: Secondary aged pupils

30000

25000

20000 Somerset: Secondary aged pupils

Notes: 15000 1. The timing of the respective forecasting work means that the latest DFE actual data available relates to 2017/18 academic year, whereas in Somerset the forecasts are based on the actual roll for academic year 2018/19. 2. Years on the x axis relate to the academic year - eg 2001 is A/Y 2001/02. 10000 3. Actual data is indicated by a solid line, forecast data by a broken line. 4. England data has been divided by 100 to present it on the same scale as Somerset data. 5. Secondary aged data covers pupils in year groups 7-11 only, primary age pupil data covers year R to 6. 5000 6. England data from DFE 'National pupil projections – future trends in pupil numbers: July 2018'; Somerset data from October School Census and 2018 School Population Forecast.

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 17 Chart B: Somerset & England School Population - Actual & Forecast 85000

80000

England Years R-11 (00s) 75000 Somerset - Years R-13

70000

65000 Somerset - Years R-11

60000 Notes: 1. The timing of the respective forecasting work means that the latest DFE actual data available relates to 2017/18 academic year, whereas in Somerset the forecasts are based on the actual roll for academic year 2018/19. 55000 2. Years on the x axis relate to the academic year - eg 2001 is A/Y 2001/02. 3. Actual data is indicated by a solid line, forecast data by a broken line. 4. England data has been divided by 100 to present it on the same scale as Somerset data. 5. DFE publish only limited data for 16+ pupil numbers so the line relates to pupils up to year 11; Somerset data is shown for years R- 50000 13 (for completeness) and Years R-11 (to provide a comparison with the DFE data). 6. England data from DFE 'National pupil projections – future trends in pupil numbers: July 2018'; Somerset data from October School Census and 2018 School Population Forecast.

45000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 18 Year 7 Roll Chart C: Bridgwater Secondary Number on Roll - Actual (A) & Forecast (F)

1200 4800 Peak of Peak Yr 7 roll Total Roll 4400

1000 4000

3600

800 3200

2800

600 2400

Yr 7-11 Roll 2000

400 1600

1200 Please note: the two sets of data shown in the chart are displayed 200 on different vertical scales. Therefore there is no meaning to the 800 points at which the line and bars intersect one another.

400

0 0 AAAAAAAAAAFFFFFFFFFFF 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Yrs 7-11 Yr 7

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 19 Chart D: Taunton Secondary Number on Roll - Actual (A) & Forecast (F) 1200 6000

Peak Yr7-11 Total Roll Year 7 Roll Peak Yr 7 roll 1000 5000

800 4000

600 3000

400 Year 7-11 Roll 2000

Please note: the two sets of data shown in the chart are displayed on 200 different vertical scales. Therefore there is no meaning to the points at 1000 which the line and bars intersect one another.

0 0 AAAAAAAAAAFFFFFFFFFFF 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Yrs 7-11 Yr 7

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 20 Chart E: Yeovil Secondary Number on Roll - Actual (A) & Forecast (F) 800 4000

Peak Yr 7-11 Total Roll 700 Year 7 Roll 3500 Peak Yr7 Roll

600 3000

500 2500

400 2000

300 1500

Year 7-11 Roll 200 Please note: the two sets of data shown in the chart are displayed on 1000 different vertical scales. Therefore there is no meaning to the points at which the line and bars intersect one another.

100 500

0 0 AAAAAAAAAAFFFFFFFFFFF 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Yrs 7-11 Yr 7

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 21 SOMERSET SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST

2018

PART 2: FORECAST DATA

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 1 BI Children's Team (March 2019) 2 C O N T E N T S

Page(s)

Explanatory Notes ...... 4

County Summary ...... 5

Area Forecasts

Ansford ...... 6

Bridgwater ...... 9

Burnham-on-Sea ...... 19

Chard ...... 23

Cheddar/Blackford ...... 27

Crewkerne/Ilminster ...... 33

Frome ...... 38

Glastonbury ...... 45

Huish Episcopi ...... 48

North Mendip ...... 53

Shepton Mallet ...... 55

Stoke-sub-Hamdon ...... 59

Street ...... 63

Taunton ...... 66

Wellington ...... 76

Wells ...... 80

West Somerset ...... 85

Wincanton ...... 91

Wiveliscombe ...... 95

Yeovil ...... 99

Special Educational Needs ...... 106

Index of Forecasts...... 107

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 3 Explanatory Notes

1. The forecast data has been calculated by the Somerset County Council, Business Intelligence - Children’s team using the actual number on roll from the October 2018 School Census which appears as the 2018 Baseline data. Data for the number of pre-school children, which is used in the calculation of the forecasts, are obtained from health authority records provided by Somerset Health Authority.

2. The forecast data is shown for 5 years for each primary school, with forecasts for middle and secondary school areas extending up to 11 years. The forecast data reflecting the anticipated roll at the start of subsequent years: therefore, the forecast data shown for 2019 relates to academic year 2019/20.

3. Primary school forecasts relate to pupils in the reception year and above which means that children on the roll of nursery classes run by primary schools are NOT included in the total roll for each school. Where such classes are established it should not be inferred that the numbers shown in the ‘Pre-school’ columns will be the number of children enrolled in the nursery.

4. Due to rounding in the calculations the total roll shown for each school may not be the sum of the individual age groups.

5. Primary school forecasts are shown in areas consistent with the middle and secondary school planning areas that appear in the Schools Organisation Plan. A summary forecasts of all the primary school forecasts is shown at the start of each area to give an indication of overall trend in that area. In addition to showing forecasts for individual primary schools, where there are 'town areas' (areas in which there is an effective choice of primary or secondary schools) a summary table of the total roll for all primary/secondary schools within the town area is shown.

6. Where ‘all-through’ schools have been established (eg making provision from 4 to 16), these have been split to into separate forecasts for the primary and secondary age ranges to facilitate the calculation of the number for school places required in each phase.

7. Shown beneath the forecast data is the 2019 Admission Number published for each school as part of statutory admission process. It does not necessarily follow that the admission number for subsequent years will be the same as that set for 2019.

8. The School Control is also shown as it was returned by schools in the October 2018 School Census (it will not reflect any change in school control since that date).

CA = Academy, CO = Community, FO = Foundation, VA = Voluntary Aided, VC = Voluntary Controlled.

March 2019

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 4 COUNTY NUMBER ON ROLL FORECAST: Forecast Base Year: 2018

1. Mainstream School Roll Pre-School (by age at 31 August) Primary Aged School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL PUPILS Year 0 1 2 3 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 (Yrs R - 6) Baseline 2018 5040 5271 5487 5632 5781 5765 6045 6082 5990 5868 5857 41388 Forecast 2019 5158 5393 5581 5720 5857 5796 6068 6082 5982 5868 41374 Forecast 2020 5277 5486 5668 5796 5889 5818 6068 6073 5982 41295 Forecast 2021 5368 5571 5743 5827 5912 5818 6060 6074 41004 Forecast 2022 5452 5645 5774 5849 5911 5810 6060 40501 Forecast 2023 5551 5524 5675 5796 5849 5903 5810 40108 Forecast 2024 5553 5697 5796 5841 5904 Forecast 2025 5575 5696 5788 5841 Forecast 2026 5574 5689 5789 Forecast 2027 5567 5689

Secondary Aged School Pupils (by NCY) 6th Form Pupils TOTAL TOTAL MAIN- TOTAL TOTAL PUPILS STREAM PUPILS Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 6th Form (Years 7 - PUPILS (Yrs 7 -11) 13) (Years R-13) Baseline 2018 5299 5236 5090 4958 4924 25507 795 810 1605 27112 68500 Forecast 2019 5509 5276 5208 5057 4885 25935 925 649 1574 27509 68883 Forecast 2020 5520 5485 5248 5174 4983 26410 918 755 1673 28083 69377 Forecast 2021 5627 5496 5456 5214 5098 26891 936 749 1685 28576 69580 Forecast 2022 5713 5603 5467 5421 5137 27340 958 764 1722 29062 69563 Forecast 2023 5701 5688 5573 5431 5341 27734 965 782 1747 29481 69589 Forecast 2024 5466 5676 5658 5537 5351 27687 1003 788 1791 29478 Forecast 2025 5553 5442 5645 5621 5455 27717 1005 819 1824 29541 Forecast 2026 5495 5529 5413 5609 5539 27584 1025 821 1845 29429 Forecast 2027 5445 5471 5500 5377 5526 27319 1040 837 1877 29196

The baseline roll is the actual roll returned by all schools in the October School Census. The forecast data is calculated at local authority level and is NOT the aggregate of individual school figures. The above figures exclude pupils in nursery classes attached to schools and pupils whose main registration is at a special school or PRU

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 5 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 576 4250 Net Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 121 117 115 101 120 0 0 574 574 Forecast 2019 121 125 120 113 97 0 0 576 1 576 Forecast 2020 105 125 128 118 109 0 0 585 1 585 Forecast 2021 98 109 128 126 114 0 0 575 1 575 Forecast 2022 122 102 112 126 122 0 0 583 1 583 Forecast 2023 113 126 105 110 122 0 0 576 1 576 Forecast 2024 107 117 129 103 106 0 0 562 1 562 Forecast 2025 105 109 119 127 99 0 0 559 -2 559 Forecast 2026 111 107 111 117 123 0 0 569 -2 569 Forecast 2027 99 113 109 109 113 0 0 544 -2 544 Forecast 2028 115 101 115 107 105 0 0 543 -2 543 Forecast 2029 96 117 103 113 103 0 0 532 -2 532

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 99.9

Average transfer from primary (%): 92.8

2019 Determined AN * 120

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 6 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: ANSFORD

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 101 125 111 123 115 121 128 138 110 118 130 860 Forecast 2019 104 128 114 124 118 122 127 138 109 113 851 -2 Forecast 2020 107 130 115 126 119 122 129 137 105 853 1 Forecast 2021 109 131 115 126 119 124 127 131 873 -5 Forecast 2022 110 131 115 126 121 121 122 846 -5 Forecast 2023 119 109 131 112 127 119 115 832 -11 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.29 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.74 Average V&I Adj 93.7% -7.75 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 84 2008 CASTLE CARY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 26 31 21 29 31 21 37 32 24 33 28 206 Forecast 2019 27 33 22 29 31 22 38 32 25 32 209 2 Forecast 2020 29 33 23 30 32 23 40 33 24 205 6 Forecast 2021 30 34 24 31 33 25 41 32 220 6 Forecast 2022 31 35 25 32 35 26 40 224 6 Forecast 2023 30 32 36 26 34 36 25 219 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.42 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.56 Average V&I Adj 93.0% -2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 33 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 132 2020 DITCHEAT PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 9 10 9 13 12 13 16 14 8 12 6 81 Forecast 2019 9 10 9 13 12 13 15 14 8 11 86 -2 Forecast 2020 9 10 9 12 12 13 15 14 7 82 -2 Forecast 2021 9 10 9 11 12 13 15 13 83 -2 Forecast 2022 9 9 9 11 12 13 14 77 -2 Forecast 2023 10 9 9 8 11 12 12 71 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.21 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 146.4% 3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 148 3047 EVERCREECH PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 24 27 26 28 19 31 21 29 26 18 22 166 Forecast 2019 25 28 27 29 21 32 22 29 25 17 175 3 Forecast 2020 25 28 27 29 21 31 21 28 24 181 -4 Forecast 2021 25 28 26 29 20 30 20 27 180 -5 Forecast 2022 25 28 25 28 19 29 19 173 -5 Forecast 2023 26 24 28 24 27 18 28 175 -5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.78 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.52 Average V&I Adj 83.3% -5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 7 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 202 2038 KEINTON MANDEVILLE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 14 11 18 13 11 21 18 23 14 20 27 134 Forecast 2019 15 11 19 13 12 22 18 24 14 21 124 4 Forecast 2020 15 12 19 14 13 22 19 24 15 126 4 Forecast 2021 15 12 18 15 13 23 18 24 123 0 Forecast 2022 15 11 19 15 14 22 18 114 0 Forecast 2023 14 14 12 19 16 13 22 110 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.55 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.10 Average V&I Adj 88.9% -2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 216 3076 LOVINGTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 5 5 5 5 6 7 4 5 5 7 5 39 Forecast 2019 5 5 5 5 6 7 3 5 5 6 37 -2 Forecast 2020 5 5 5 5 6 6 3 5 5 35 -1 Forecast 2021 5 5 5 5 5 6 3 4 33 -2 Forecast 2022 5 5 5 4 5 6 3 33 -1 Forecast 2023 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 33 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 94.81 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 153.8% 2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 244 3084 NORTH CADBURY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 8 15 11 14 13 8 10 13 15 9 10 78 Forecast 2019 8 15 11 14 13 7 10 12 14 8 78 -4 Forecast 2020 8 15 11 14 12 7 9 11 13 77 -4 Forecast 2021 8 15 11 13 12 6 8 10 75 -4 Forecast 2022 8 15 10 13 11 4 7 68 -5 Forecast 2023 12 8 14 10 12 10 3 69 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 93.60 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 120.0% 2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 282 2059 QUEEN CAMEL, THE COUNTESS GYTHA PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 15 26 21 21 23 20 22 22 18 19 32 156 Forecast 2019 15 26 21 21 23 19 21 22 18 18 142 -3 Forecast 2020 16 27 21 22 23 20 22 22 17 147 2 Forecast 2021 17 27 22 22 24 21 22 21 159 2 Forecast 2022 17 28 22 23 25 21 21 157 2 Forecast 2023 22 17 27 21 23 25 20 155 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.46 Average V&I Adj 78.3% -6 per year 2019 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 8 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: BRIDGWATER SECONDARY SUMMARY Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 738 727 672 712 680 0 0 3529 3529 Forecast 2019 793 736 731 670 707 0 0 3637 -5 3637 Forecast 2020 799 791 740 729 665 0 0 3724 -5 3724 Forecast 2021 827 797 795 738 724 0 0 3882 -5 3882 Forecast 2022 862 825 801 793 733 0 0 4015 -5 4015 Forecast 2023 839 860 829 799 788 0 0 4116 -5 4116 Forecast 2024 803 837 864 827 794 0 0 4126 -5 4126 Forecast 2025 823 801 841 862 822 0 0 4149 -5 4149 Forecast 2026 837 821 805 839 857 0 0 4159 -5 4159 Forecast 2027 827 835 825 803 834 0 0 4124 -5 4124 Forecast 2028 751 825 839 823 798 0 0 4036 -5 4036 Forecast 2029 751 749 829 837 818 0 0 3985 -5 3985

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 98.8

Average transfer from primary (%): 93.50

Notes: The above data represents the combined roll of the following schools: Robert Blake, , Haygrove and the secondary age groups of the Bridgwater College Academy.

Secondary Forecast: 502 4300 BRIDGWATER, ROBERT BLAKE

Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7 -11) Baseline 2018 170 170 160 154 150 0 0 804 804 Forecast 2019 191 169 170 160 151 0 0 841 -4 841 Forecast 2020 192 190 169 170 157 0 0 878 -4 878 Forecast 2021 199 191 190 169 167 0 0 915 -4 915 Forecast 2022 211 198 191 190 166 0 0 956 -4 956 Forecast 2023 210 210 198 191 187 0 0 995 -4 995

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 24.32 Secondary Migration: 99.0

2019 Determined AN * 194

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): FO Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 9 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 504 4308 BRIDGWATER, CHILTON TRINITY

Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7 -11) Baseline 2018 197 187 167 194 196 0 0 941 941 Forecast 2019 214 196 188 165 193 0 0 956 -3 956 Forecast 2020 208 213 197 186 164 0 0 968 -3 968 Forecast 2021 215 207 214 195 185 0 0 1016 -3 1016 Forecast 2022 220 214 208 212 194 0 0 1048 -3 1048 Forecast 2023 214 219 215 206 211 0 0 1065 -3 1065

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 26.00 Secondary Migration: 99.3

2019 Determined AN * 200

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): FO Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 506 4309 BRIDGWATER, HAYGROVE

Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7 -11) Baseline 2018 213 212 216 216 212 0 0 1069 1069 Forecast 2019 216 213 214 218 216 0 0 1077 4 1077 Forecast 2020 224 216 215 216 218 0 0 1089 4 1089 Forecast 2021 228 224 218 217 216 0 0 1102 4 1102 Forecast 2022 233 228 226 220 217 0 0 1123 4 1123 Forecast 2023 226 233 230 228 220 0 0 1136 4 1136

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 27.34 Secondary Migration: 101.0

2019 Determined AN * 214

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 501S 4001 BRIDGWATER COLLEGE ACADEMY (Years 7-11)

Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7 -11) Baseline 2018 158 158 129 148 122 0 0 715 715 Forecast 2019 172 158 159 127 147 0 0 763 -2 763 Forecast 2020 176 172 159 157 126 0 0 790 -2 790 Forecast 2021 186 176 173 157 156 0 0 848 -2 848 Forecast 2022 198 186 177 171 156 0 0 888 -2 888 Forecast 2023 189 198 187 175 170 0 0 919 -2 919

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 22.34 Secondary Migration: 99.5

2019 Determined AN * 175

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes: This is an 'all through' school. The above data relates to the secondary age groups only. Data for the primary age groups appears in a separate table.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 10 Secondary School (11-18) Catchment Analysis Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 598 4003 BRYMORE Total Net Pupils by NCY (Pupils Migration Total 11 to Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ aged 11-17) (11-15) 15 Baseline 2018 73 67 56 55 67 0 0 318 318 Forecast 2019 70 77 67 56 53 0 0 323 2 323 Forecast 2020 70 74 77 67 54 0 0 342 2 342 Forecast 2021 70 74 74 77 65 0 0 360 2 360 Forecast 2022 70 74 74 74 75 0 0 367 2 367 Forecast 2023 70 74 74 74 72 0 0 364 2 364 Forecast 2024 70 74 74 74 72 0 0 364 2 364 Forecast 2025 70 74 74 74 72 0 0 364 2 364 Forecast 2026 70 74 74 74 72 0 0 364 2 364 Forecast 2027 70 74 74 74 72 0 0 364 2 364 Forecast 2028 70 74 74 74 72 0 0 364 2 364 Forecast 2029 70 74 74 74 72 0 0 364 2 364

16+ Forecast 0.0% 17+ Forecast 0.0%

Secondary Migration: 100.5

Average transfer from primary (%): n/a

2019 Determined AN * 70 (30 boarding, 40 day pupils)

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 11 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: BRIDGWATER

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 727 747 849 864 863 849 886 912 880 850 848 6088 Forecast 2019 747 762 858 876 868 844 887 916 881 855 6127 23 Forecast 2020 763 775 870 885 866 847 891 917 885 6161 31 Forecast 2021 776 788 877 883 869 851 892 922 6082 31 Forecast 2022 789 793 873 885 872 853 897 5962 26 Forecast 2023 823 795 792 874 889 875 859 5907 19 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.31 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.73 Average V&I Adj 96.3% -30.25 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 81 3154 CANNINGTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 14 23 25 25 26 21 30 28 30 29 19 183 Forecast 2019 14 24 26 25 27 21 32 28 31 29 193 4 Forecast 2020 15 25 26 26 27 23 32 29 31 194 4 Forecast 2021 16 26 27 26 29 23 33 29 193 5 Forecast 2022 17 27 27 28 29 24 33 185 5 Forecast 2023 23 18 27 29 28 30 24 179 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.48 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.38 Average V&I Adj 119.2% 4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 146 5203 ENMORE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 20 20 21 21 22 21 21 19 22 22 20 147 Forecast 2019 20 21 21 21 22 21 20 19 22 22 147 -1 Forecast 2020 21 21 21 21 22 20 20 19 22 145 -1 Forecast 2021 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 19 143 -1 Forecast 2022 21 21 21 20 21 20 20 144 -1 Forecast 2023 21 21 21 20 20 21 20 144 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.20 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.97 Average V&I Adj 911.1% 18 per year 2019 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 210 2331 KINGSMOOR PRIMARY, Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 20 23 23 25 25 27 23 24 25 26 23 173 Forecast 2019 21 25 23 25 26 26 22 24 24 26 173 -2 Forecast 2020 23 25 23 26 25 25 22 23 24 168 -2 Forecast 2021 23 25 24 25 24 25 21 23 167 -2 Forecast 2022 23 26 23 25 24 24 21 166 -1 Forecast 2023 24 24 25 23 25 23 24 168 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.90 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.16 Average V&I Adj 206.8% 12 per year 2019 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 12 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 243 3158 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 19 14 20 25 29 22 30 25 27 25 21 179 Forecast 2019 20 14 20 25 30 22 30 25 28 25 185 2 Forecast 2020 20 14 21 26 30 22 30 26 28 183 3 Forecast 2021 21 15 22 27 31 22 31 26 174 5 Forecast 2022 22 16 23 28 31 23 31 174 5 Forecast 2023 21 23 16 23 28 32 23 166 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.83 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.67 Average V&I Adj 147.2% 6 per year 2019 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 248 2175 NORTH NEWTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 10 9 12 12 12 13 14 16 15 16 11 97 Forecast 2019 10 9 12 12 12 13 14 16 15 16 98 0 Forecast 2020 10 9 12 12 12 13 14 16 15 94 0 Forecast 2021 10 9 12 12 12 13 14 16 88 0 Forecast 2022 10 9 12 12 12 13 14 82 0 Forecast 2023 11 10 9 12 12 12 13 79 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 286.7% 7 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 251 2335 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 50 51 57 58 61 60 57 63 62 57 53 413 Forecast 2019 52 52 57 60 61 59 58 62 63 57 420 2 Forecast 2020 53 52 59 60 60 60 57 63 63 422 2 Forecast 2021 53 53 59 59 61 59 58 63 412 1 Forecast 2022 54 53 58 60 60 60 58 403 1 Forecast 2023 56 55 52 59 59 61 60 402 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.06 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.87 Average V&I Adj 127.1% 12 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 268 2033 OTTERHAMPTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 8 5 11 8 11 10 6 11 8 8 9 63 Forecast 2019 8 5 11 8 11 10 6 11 7 7 60 -2 Forecast 2020 8 5 11 8 11 10 6 10 6 62 -2 Forecast 2021 8 5 11 8 11 10 5 9 59 -2 Forecast 2022 8 5 11 8 11 9 4 56 -2 Forecast 2023 8 8 5 11 8 10 8 58 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.23 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 145.5% 3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 13 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 280 2180 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 22 26 26 28 30 30 28 30 29 24 28 199 Forecast 2019 24 27 26 29 31 31 28 31 28 25 203 4 Forecast 2020 25 27 27 30 32 31 29 30 29 208 4 Forecast 2021 25 28 28 31 32 32 28 31 210 4 Forecast 2022 26 29 29 31 33 31 29 208 4 Forecast 2023 28 26 29 29 32 33 32 209 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.58 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.13 Average V&I Adj 167.2% 10 per year 2019 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 309 3159 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 10 8 12 11 12 13 13 8 12 10 12 80 Forecast 2019 10 8 12 11 12 12 13 7 12 10 77 -2 Forecast 2020 10 9 12 12 12 13 12 7 12 80 1 Forecast 2021 11 9 13 12 13 12 12 7 78 1 Forecast 2022 11 9 12 12 12 12 12 80 -2 Forecast 2023 11 11 9 12 11 12 12 78 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.12 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.98 Average V&I Adj 136.7% 3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 316 3356 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 7 6 7 11 6 8 15 9 10 10 7 65 Forecast 2019 7 6 7 11 6 8 15 9 10 10 69 0 Forecast 2020 8 7 7 12 7 9 15 9 10 69 3 Forecast 2021 9 7 8 13 8 9 15 9 69 3 Forecast 2022 9 7 8 13 8 9 15 69 0 Forecast 2023 8 9 7 8 13 8 9 62 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.07 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.00 Average V&I Adj 59.6% -5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 403 2026 ST GEORGE'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 44 42 48 52 40 54 55 57 58 63 47 374 Forecast 2019 45 43 49 53 42 54 55 57 58 63 382 3 Forecast 2020 46 44 50 55 42 54 55 57 58 371 3 Forecast 2021 47 45 52 55 42 54 55 57 360 3 Forecast 2022 48 47 52 55 42 54 55 353 3 Forecast 2023 47 50 48 52 55 42 54 348 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.71 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.17 Average V&I Adj 64.6% -26 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 14 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 414 2185 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 25 22 21 26 24 21 24 23 17 16 26 151 Forecast 2019 25 22 21 26 24 20 24 23 17 16 150 -1 Forecast 2020 25 22 21 26 23 20 24 23 17 154 -1 Forecast 2021 25 22 21 25 23 20 24 23 158 -1 Forecast 2022 25 22 20 25 23 20 24 159 -1 Forecast 2023 24 25 21 20 25 23 20 158 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.25 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 110.6% 2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 427 2013 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 16 17 21 19 16 20 15 30 28 22 24 155 Forecast 2019 16 18 21 20 16 20 15 31 28 22 152 2 Forecast 2020 17 18 22 20 16 20 16 31 28 153 2 Forecast 2021 17 19 22 20 16 21 16 31 145 2 Forecast 2022 18 19 22 20 17 21 16 133 2 Forecast 2023 19 19 19 22 21 17 21 138 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.97 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.33 Average V&I Adj 79.3% -5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

Town Area Summary: BRIDGWATER

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 462 481 545 543 549 529 555 569 537 522 548 3809 Forecast 2019 475 488 552 550 548 527 555 573 538 527 3818 14 Forecast 2020 482 497 558 551 547 527 559 574 542 3858 15 Forecast 2021 490 504 557 549 546 531 560 579 3826 13 Forecast 2022 497 503 555 548 549 533 565 3750 13 Forecast 2023 523 496 504 554 552 551 539 3719 11 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.24 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.56 Average V&I Adj 87.8% -70.8 per year Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for the following schools: Bridgwater Academy (years R-6), Eastover, Westover Green, Hamp Infant, Hamp Junior, Northgate, SS John & Francis, St Josephs, St Mary's, Somerset Bridge and Willowdown

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 45 2012 BRIDGWATER WILLOWDOWN PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 25 24 28 30 31 30 30 30 30 26 21 198 Forecast 2019 27 25 30 30 31 30 32 32 31 26 212 5 Forecast 2020 28 27 30 30 31 31 34 33 31 220 4 Forecast 2021 30 27 30 30 32 33 35 33 220 4 Forecast 2022 30 27 30 31 34 34 35 221 4 Forecast 2023 29 30 27 31 33 35 34 219 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.27 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.65 Average V&I Adj 61.8% -17 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 15 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 50 2152 BRIDGWATER EASTOVER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 56 56 59 59 60 59 60 60 60 61 60 420 Forecast 2019 58 56 59 60 60 59 61 60 59 61 420 1 Forecast 2020 58 58 60 60 60 60 60 59 59 418 0 Forecast 2021 59 59 60 60 61 60 59 59 418 1 Forecast 2022 60 59 60 61 61 59 59 419 1 Forecast 2023 60 60 60 61 61 60 59 421 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.56 Average V&I Adj 71.7% -23 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 54 2325 BRIDGWATER WESTOVER GREEN PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 39 47 58 59 57 44 62 60 63 60 61 407 Forecast 2019 40 48 58 60 56 45 62 61 64 60 408 3 Forecast 2020 41 48 58 59 56 45 63 62 64 407 1 Forecast 2021 41 49 57 60 56 46 64 62 394 3 Forecast 2022 42 48 58 60 57 47 64 376 3 Forecast 2023 51 41 49 58 61 58 47 365 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.54 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.25 Average V&I Adj 69.5% -22 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 55 2157 BRIDGWATER HAMP INFANTS Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 63 62 77 77 74 84 83 241 Forecast 2019 65 63 78 77 74 84 235 0 Forecast 2020 66 64 78 79 76 233 4 Forecast 2021 67 64 78 79 221 0 Forecast 2022 67 64 78 209 0 Forecast 2023 70 67 64 201 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.54 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.03 Average V&I Adj 62.8% -41 per year 2019 Determined AN * 90 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 56 2007 BRIDGWATER HAMP JUNIOR Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 88 89 74 88 339 Forecast 2019 80 88 88 74 330 -4 Forecast 2020 83 82 87 88 340 0 Forecast 2021 73 83 81 87 324 -4 Forecast 2022 76 73 82 81 312 -4 Forecast 2023 75 76 72 82 305 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.76 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 96.75 Average V&I Adj N/A 2019 Determined AN * 90 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 16 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 46 2025 BRIDGWATER NORTHGATE Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 25 26 29 30 30 29 13 19 7 9 0 107 Forecast 2019 26 27 30 30 30 29 15 20 9 11 144 7 Forecast 2020 27 28 30 30 30 30 16 22 11 169 6 Forecast 2021 28 28 30 30 32 31 18 24 193 7 Forecast 2022 28 28 30 31 33 33 20 203 6 Forecast 2023 29 28 28 31 32 35 35 218 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 104.27 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.17 Average V&I Adj 4.8% 28 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes: As no unique catchment area has been set for this school the forecast of reception year pupils is based largely on the town area trend and may not fully reflect local demand for places.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 58 2003 BRIDGWATER ST JOHN & ST FRANCIS CHURCH PRY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 58 58 60 60 60 60 58 58 58 58 60 412 Forecast 2019 58 59 60 60 60 59 58 58 57 58 410 -2 Forecast 2020 59 59 60 60 59 59 57 57 57 409 -3 Forecast 2021 59 59 60 59 59 59 56 57 409 -2 Forecast 2022 59 59 59 59 58 58 56 408 -3 Forecast 2023 59 59 58 59 59 57 58 409 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.32 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.34 Average V&I Adj 10.2% 59 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 59 3401 BRIDGWATER ST JOSEPH'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 26 27 29 28 28 20 30 29 29 31 60 227 Forecast 2019 26 27 29 29 28 20 30 29 28 31 195 0 Forecast 2020 26 27 30 29 28 20 30 28 28 193 0 Forecast 2021 26 28 30 29 28 20 29 28 192 0 Forecast 2022 27 28 30 29 28 19 29 190 0 Forecast 2023 28 27 29 30 29 27 19 189 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.51 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.48 Average V&I Adj 4.8% 28 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 62 3151 BRIDGWATER ST MARY'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 52 52 57 58 60 60 60 60 62 62 57 421 Forecast 2019 54 52 58 60 61 61 61 60 63 64 430 8 Forecast 2020 54 53 60 61 62 62 61 61 64 431 7 Forecast 2021 55 55 61 62 63 62 62 63 428 8 Forecast 2022 57 56 62 63 63 63 63 427 7 Forecast 2023 58 58 58 63 63 64 65 429 7 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.59 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.39 Average V&I Adj 149.0% 18 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 17 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 302 2182 BRIDGWATER SOMERSET BRIDGE PRY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 52 54 56 58 59 60 78 79 60 60 58 454 Forecast 2019 54 56 58 60 60 60 78 80 61 61 460 6 Forecast 2020 56 58 60 61 60 60 79 81 62 463 6 Forecast 2021 58 60 61 61 60 61 80 82 465 6 Forecast 2022 60 61 61 62 62 63 82 451 10 Forecast 2023 60 61 61 62 64 64 65 437 8 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.44 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.57 Average V&I Adj 68.8% -25 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 501P 4001 BRIDGWATER COLLEGE ACADEMY (Years R-6) Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 66 75 92 84 90 83 81 86 79 81 83 583 Forecast 2019 67 75 92 84 88 80 78 85 78 81 574 -10 Forecast 2020 67 75 92 82 85 77 77 84 78 575 -10 Forecast 2021 67 75 90 79 82 76 76 84 562 -10 Forecast 2022 67 73 87 76 80 75 76 534 -11 Forecast 2023 79 65 70 84 74 79 75 526 -11 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.86 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.13 Average V&I Adj 51.4% -75 per year 2019 Determined AN * 85 Notes: This is an all-through school: the above totals show the roll for years R-6 only, secondary year groups are shown in a separate table.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 18 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 514 4005 HIGHBRIDGE, THE KING ALFRED SCHOOL Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 231 226 224 215 224 57 49 1226 1120 Forecast 2019 246 230 224 219 214 52 51 1235 -9 1133 Forecast 2020 240 245 228 219 218 49 46 1245 -9 1150 Forecast 2021 251 239 243 223 218 50 44 1267 -9 1173 Forecast 2022 252 250 237 238 222 50 45 1292 -9 1198 Forecast 2023 263 251 248 232 237 51 45 1326 -9 1230 Forecast 2024 257 262 249 243 231 54 45 1342 -9 1242 Forecast 2025 274 256 260 244 242 53 48 1377 -9 1276 Forecast 2026 270 273 254 255 243 56 47 1398 -9 1295 Forecast 2027 269 269 271 249 254 56 49 1418 -9 1313 Forecast 2028 257 268 267 266 248 58 50 1414 -9 1306 Forecast 2029 246 256 266 262 265 57 52 1403 -9 1294

16+ Forecast 23.0% 17+ Forecast 89.0%

Secondary Migration: 97.8

Average transfer from primary (%): 97.5

2019 Determined AN * 250

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 19 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: BURNHAM-ON-SEA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 221 244 257 262 269 256 270 262 257 244 252 1810 Forecast 2019 229 248 261 266 276 263 274 258 255 246 1838 18 Forecast 2020 233 252 266 272 283 268 270 256 257 1872 19 Forecast 2021 236 257 271 276 286 264 268 258 1880 13 Forecast 2022 241 260 275 281 282 262 270 1871 13 Forecast 2023 258 247 263 280 277 279 264 1868 9 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.66 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.88 Average V&I Adj 89.4% -29.25 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 31 3226 BERROW PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 27 28 27 29 31 26 30 29 28 22 29 195 Forecast 2019 28 29 28 30 32 28 31 28 28 22 199 4 Forecast 2020 29 30 29 31 34 29 30 28 28 209 4 Forecast 2021 29 30 29 30 34 28 30 28 209 -2 Forecast 2022 29 30 28 30 33 28 30 208 -2 Forecast 2023 30 29 29 29 29 32 28 206 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.46 Average V&I Adj 83.5% -6 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 44 3227 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 16 16 17 17 17 18 20 21 18 20 16 130 Forecast 2019 17 16 18 17 18 19 21 20 15 21 131 0 Forecast 2020 17 17 18 18 19 20 21 17 16 129 1 Forecast 2021 18 17 19 19 20 19 18 18 130 0 Forecast 2022 18 18 20 20 20 16 19 131 1 Forecast 2023 17 19 18 21 20 17 17 129 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.36 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.37 Average V&I Adj 314.3% 11 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 144 2169 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 12 12 12 13 17 14 15 12 13 8 4 83 Forecast 2019 12 12 12 13 17 14 14 12 13 8 91 -1 Forecast 2020 12 12 12 13 17 14 14 12 13 95 0 Forecast 2021 12 12 12 13 16 14 14 12 93 -1 Forecast 2022 12 12 12 13 16 14 14 93 0 Forecast 2023 13 12 12 11 13 16 14 91 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.26 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 75.4% -4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 20 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 180 2000 HIGHBRIDGE CHURCHFIELD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 48 60 59 68 59 59 59 67 61 64 75 444 Forecast 2019 50 62 60 70 62 62 61 65 62 65 447 10 Forecast 2020 52 63 62 73 65 64 58 66 63 451 9 Forecast 2021 53 65 65 76 67 62 59 67 461 10 Forecast 2022 56 67 68 78 64 63 60 456 9 Forecast 2023 63 59 70 70 76 65 64 467 9 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.92 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.13 Average V&I Adj 58.9% -41 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 272 2179 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 10 8 11 9 9 8 11 8 9 5 8 58 Forecast 2019 10 8 11 9 9 8 11 8 9 5 59 0 Forecast 2020 10 8 11 8 9 8 11 8 9 64 -1 Forecast 2021 10 8 11 8 9 8 11 8 63 0 Forecast 2022 10 7 11 8 9 8 11 64 -1 Forecast 2023 9 10 7 11 8 9 8 62 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.25 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 108.6% 1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 11 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 410 2184 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 9 14 15 16 20 17 21 8 14 13 7 100 Forecast 2019 10 15 15 16 21 18 22 8 14 13 112 3 Forecast 2020 11 15 16 17 22 19 22 8 14 118 4 Forecast 2021 11 16 16 18 23 19 22 8 122 3 Forecast 2022 12 16 17 19 23 19 22 128 3 Forecast 2023 14 13 17 18 19 23 19 123 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.52 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.58 Average V&I Adj 110.2% 1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

Town Area Summary: BURNHAM-ON-SEA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 99 106 116 110 116 114 114 117 114 112 113 800 Forecast 2019 102 106 117 111 117 114 114 117 114 112 799 2 Forecast 2020 102 107 118 112 117 114 114 117 114 806 2 Forecast 2021 103 109 119 112 117 114 114 117 802 3 Forecast 2022 104 110 119 113 117 114 114 791 3 Forecast 2023 111 105 110 120 112 117 114 789 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.18 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.03 Average V&I Adj 108.0% 8 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Burnham-on-Sea County Infant, St Andrew's Junior and St Josephs Primary Schools

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 21 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 74 2165 BURNHAM-ON-SEA INFANTS Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 66 72 82 76 80 80 80 240 Forecast 2019 68 72 83 77 81 81 239 3 Forecast 2020 68 73 84 78 82 244 3 Forecast 2021 69 75 85 79 239 4 Forecast 2022 70 76 86 232 3 Forecast 2023 77 72 77 226 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.40 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.37 Average V&I Adj 74.2% -26 per year 2019 Determined AN * 80 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 75 3152 BURNHAM-ON-SEA ST ANDREWS JUNIOR Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 84 83 81 82 330 Forecast 2019 81 84 84 81 330 2 Forecast 2020 82 81 85 84 332 2 Forecast 2021 83 82 82 85 332 2 Forecast 2022 81 83 83 82 329 3 Forecast 2023 88 80 84 83 335 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.32 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 101.72 Average V&I Adj N/A 2019 Determined AN * 82 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 76 3402 BURNHAM-ON-SEA ST JOSEPH'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 33 34 34 34 36 34 34 33 31 31 31 230 Forecast 2019 34 34 34 34 36 33 33 33 30 31 230 -3 Forecast 2020 34 34 34 34 35 32 33 32 30 230 -3 Forecast 2021 34 34 34 33 34 32 32 32 231 -3 Forecast 2022 34 34 33 32 34 31 32 230 -3 Forecast 2023 34 33 33 32 32 33 31 228 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.39 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.29 Average V&I Adj 33.8% 34 per year 2019 Determined AN * 34 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 22 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 517 4274 CHARD, HOLYROOD Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 234 229 210 217 217 85 90 1282 1107 Forecast 2019 240 231 230 209 212 101 72 1295 -8 1122 Forecast 2020 235 237 232 229 204 99 86 1321 -8 1137 Forecast 2021 257 233 239 232 224 95 84 1364 -5 1185 Forecast 2022 245 255 235 239 227 104 81 1386 -5 1201 Forecast 2023 243 243 257 235 234 106 89 1406 -5 1212 Forecast 2024 240 241 244 255 230 109 90 1408 -8 1210 Forecast 2025 227 238 242 242 250 107 92 1398 -8 1199 Forecast 2026 217 225 239 240 237 116 91 1365 -8 1157 Forecast 2027 229 215 226 237 235 110 99 1350 -8 1141 Forecast 2028 249 227 216 224 232 109 94 1350 -8 1147 Forecast 2029 229 247 228 214 219 108 93 1337 -8 1137

16+ Forecast 46.5% 17+ Forecast 85.0%

Secondary Migration: 98.2

Average transfer from primary (%): 101.1

2019 Determined AN * 232

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 23 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: CHARD

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 209 233 215 202 213 230 237 243 258 234 236 1651 Forecast 2019 212 236 217 203 218 233 240 243 260 232 1629 12 Forecast 2020 215 238 218 208 221 236 240 245 257 1625 11 Forecast 2021 217 239 223 211 224 236 242 243 1618 12 Forecast 2022 218 243 224 214 225 238 239 1601 9 Forecast 2023 221 222 243 227 215 227 236 1591 8 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.69 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.87 Average V&I Adj 88.6% -27.62 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 16 2001 ASHILL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 57456806847 39 Forecast 2019 5 7 4 5 6 8 0 5 8 4 36 -1 Forecast 2020 5 7 4 5 6 8 0 5 8 36 0 Forecast 2021 5 7 4 5 6 8 0 5 35 0 Forecast 2022 5 7 4 5 6 8 0 35 0 Forecast 2023 6 5 7 3 5 6 8 40 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.73 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 116.7% 1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 67 2110 BROADWAY, NEROCHE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): FO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 28 30 26 30 24 30 30 32 31 31 25 203 Forecast 2019 28 30 26 30 24 30 32 33 32 31 212 4 Forecast 2020 28 30 26 30 24 32 33 34 32 211 4 Forecast 2021 28 30 26 30 25 33 34 34 212 3 Forecast 2022 28 30 26 32 26 34 34 210 4 Forecast 2023 28 28 29 28 33 27 34 207 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.02 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 97.0% -1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 72 2015 BUCKLAND ST MARY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 8 8 8 4 12 10 13 9 11 4 6 65 Forecast 2019 8 8 8 4 13 10 13 9 11 4 64 1 Forecast 2020 8 8 8 5 13 10 12 9 11 68 0 Forecast 2021 8 8 9 5 13 10 12 9 66 1 Forecast 2022 8 9 9 5 13 10 12 66 1 Forecast 2023 8 9 9 9 5 13 10 63 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.39 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 140.0% 2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 24 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 110 3307 COMBE ST NICHOLAS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 14 17 14 10 10 15 17 21 16 24 15 118 Forecast 2019 14 18 14 10 11 15 18 21 16 24 115 2 Forecast 2020 15 18 14 11 11 16 18 21 16 107 2 Forecast 2021 15 18 15 11 12 16 18 21 111 2 Forecast 2022 15 19 15 12 12 16 18 107 2 Forecast 2023 14 16 19 16 11 12 16 104 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.94 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.34 Average V&I Adj 134.1% 4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 331 2070 TATWORTH PRMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 24 27 30 27 28 30 29 24 32 30 32 205 Forecast 2019 24 27 30 27 28 30 28 24 32 29 198 -2 Forecast 2020 24 27 30 27 28 30 28 24 30 197 -2 Forecast 2021 24 27 30 27 27 29 28 23 191 -3 Forecast 2022 24 27 30 27 27 29 26 190 -2 Forecast 2023 27 24 27 29 27 27 28 189 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.69 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 122.7% 5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 420 2082 WINSHAM PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): FO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 56746853570 34 Forecast 2019 5 6 7 4 6 8 5 3 5 7 38 0 Forecast 2020 5 6 7 4 6 8 5 3 5 38 0 Forecast 2021 5 6 7 4 6 8 5 3 39 0 Forecast 2022 5 6 7 3 6 8 5 40 -1 Forecast 2023 6 5 6 7 3 6 8 41 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.41 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 64.7% -3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

Town Area Summary: CHARD

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 125 138 126 122 127 129 143 148 155 134 151 987 Forecast 2019 128 140 128 123 130 132 144 148 156 133 966 8 Forecast 2020 130 142 129 126 133 132 144 149 155 968 7 Forecast 2021 132 143 132 129 135 132 145 148 964 9 Forecast 2022 133 145 133 130 135 133 144 953 5 Forecast 2023 133 135 146 135 131 136 132 948 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.75 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.30 Average V&I Adj 78.5% -35 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Avishayes, Manor Court and The Redstart Primary Schools

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 25 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 87 2102 CHARD AVISHAYES PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 26 27 27 26 27 27 31 31 34 25 35 210 Forecast 2019 27 27 28 26 28 28 32 31 34 25 204 3 Forecast 2020 27 28 28 27 30 27 32 31 33 208 1 Forecast 2021 28 28 29 28 31 27 32 31 206 3 Forecast 2022 28 29 28 28 31 27 31 202 -1 Forecast 2023 28 28 29 28 28 31 27 199 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.69 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.48 Average V&I Adj 76.3% -8 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 88 2329 CHARD THE REDSTART PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 57 58 59 59 60 58 58 60 63 64 66 429 Forecast 2019 58 59 59 60 60 58 59 60 64 64 425 3 Forecast 2020 59 59 60 60 60 59 59 61 64 423 3 Forecast 2021 59 60 60 60 61 59 60 61 421 3 Forecast 2022 60 60 60 61 60 60 60 421 2 Forecast 2023 60 60 59 61 61 61 60 422 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.44 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.19 Average V&I Adj 87.3% -9 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 91 2004 CHARD MANOR COURT PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 42 53 40 37 40 44 54 57 58 45 50 348 Forecast 2019 43 54 41 37 42 46 53 57 58 44 337 2 Forecast 2020 44 55 41 39 43 46 53 57 58 337 3 Forecast 2021 45 55 43 41 43 46 53 56 337 3 Forecast 2022 45 56 45 41 44 46 53 330 4 Forecast 2023 45 47 58 46 42 44 45 327 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.19 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.32 Average V&I Adj 70.2% -18 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 26 Upper School (13-18) Catchment Analysis Forecast Base Year: 2018

CHEDDAR, THE KINGS OF WESSEX

Secondary Forecast: 520 4583 Total Net Total Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Pupils Year 9 10 11 12 13+ 9-13) (Yrs 9-11) (Yrs 9-11) Baseline 2018 286 249 263 141 144 1083 798 Forecast 2019 238 283 245 150 122 1038 -7 766 Forecast 2020 243 235 279 140 129 1027 -7 758 Forecast 2021 274 240 231 159 121 1025 -7 745 Forecast 2022 273 271 236 132 137 1049 -7 780 Forecast 2023 264 270 267 135 114 1049 -7 801 Forecast 2024 284 261 266 152 116 1079 -7 811 Forecast 2025 263 281 257 152 131 1084 -7 801 Forecast 2026 255 260 277 146 131 1069 -7 792 Forecast 2027 252 252 256 158 126 1044 -7 760 Forecast 2028 240 249 248 146 136 1019 -7 737 Forecast 2029 250 237 245 141 126 999 -7 732

16+ Forecast 57.0% 17+ Forecast 86.3%

Upper School Migration: 96.5

Average transfer from middle (%): 95.8

2019 Determined AN * 270

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Middle School (9-12) Catchment Summary Forecast Base Year: 2018

Middle aged pupils: Catchment Summary Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration Year 5 6 7 8 (Yrs 5-8) Baseline 2018 282 287 253 249 1071 Forecast 2019 273 286 285 254 1098 0 Forecast 2020 294 277 284 286 1140 0 Forecast 2021 272 298 275 285 1129 0 Forecast 2022 263 276 296 276 1110 0 Forecast 2023 260 267 274 297 1098 0 Forecast 2024 248 264 265 275 1052 0 Forecast 2025 258 252 262 266 1038 0 Forecast 2026 270 262 250 263 1045 0 Forecast 2027 262 274 260 251 1046 0 Forecast 2028 266 272 261 - - Forecast 2029 264 273 - -

Notes: The above data shows a summary of the forecasts for the Cheddar and Blackford Middle schools.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 27 Middle School (9-12) Catchment Analysis Forecast Base Year: 2018

BLACKFORD, HUGH SEXEY MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 481 4584 Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Net Year 5 6 7 8 (Yrs 5-8) Migration Baseline 2018 157 155 149 127 588 Forecast 2019 149 161 151 151 612 2 Forecast 2020 152 153 157 153 615 2 Forecast 2021 152 156 149 159 615 2 Forecast 2022 152 156 152 151 610 2 Forecast 2023 143 156 152 154 604 2 Forecast 2024 134 147 152 154 587 2 Forecast 2025 141 138 143 154 576 2 Forecast 2026 149 145 134 145 573 2 Forecast 2027 154 153 141 136 585 2 Forecast 2028 158 149 143 - Forecast 2029 154 151 -

Middle Migration: 100.7

Average transfer from primary (%): 107.6

2019 Determined AN * 150

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

CHEDDAR, FAIRLANDS MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 482 4410 Total Pupils Net Pupils by NCY (Yrs 5-8) Migration Year 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2018 125 132 104 122 483 Forecast 2019 124 125 134 103 486 1 Forecast 2020 142 124 127 133 526 1 Forecast 2021 120 142 126 126 513 1 Forecast 2022 111 120 144 125 500 1 Forecast 2023 118 111 122 143 493 1 Forecast 2024 113 118 113 121 465 1 Forecast 2025 117 113 120 112 462 1 Forecast 2026 121 117 115 119 471 1 Forecast 2027 108 121 119 114 462 1 Forecast 2028 108 123 118 - Forecast 2029 110 122 -

Middle Migration: 100.3

Average transfer from primary (%): 104.9

2019 Determined AN * 127

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 28 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: CHEDDAR

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 72 89 91 92 99 96 110 138 118 561 Forecast 2019 78 92 94 96 103 102 113 139 553 14 Forecast 2020 81 95 98 100 108 105 114 525 13 Forecast 2021 84 99 102 106 111 106 524 14 Forecast 2022 88 103 107 109 112 519 13 Forecast 2023 95 92 109 110 110 516 14 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.25 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.26 Average V&I Adj 101.5% 1 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 18 3225 FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 25 26 28 26 30 36 28 39 38 171 Forecast 2019 27 26 29 27 32 38 29 39 165 6 Forecast 2020 27 27 30 29 33 39 29 160 5 Forecast 2021 28 28 32 31 34 39 164 6 Forecast 2022 29 30 33 32 34 158 5 Forecast 2023 29 31 32 34 32 158 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.60 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.35 Average V&I Adj 150.0% 9 per year 2019 Determined AN * 35 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 96 2255 CHEDDAR FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 31 47 41 42 47 39 53 66 54 259 Forecast 2019 34 49 42 44 48 41 54 68 255 8 Forecast 2020 36 50 44 45 50 42 55 236 7 Forecast 2021 37 52 45 47 51 44 239 8 Forecast 2022 39 53 47 48 52 239 7 Forecast 2023 45 40 55 48 50 238 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.93 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.40 Average V&I Adj 77.4% -12 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 137 3317 DRAYCOTT & RODNEY STOKE FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 8 10 14 14 11 9 16 19 18 73 Forecast 2019 9 11 14 15 12 11 16 18 72 3 Forecast 2020 10 11 15 16 14 11 16 72 4 Forecast 2021 10 12 16 18 14 10 70 3 Forecast 2022 11 13 18 18 14 74 4 Forecast 2023 12 12 15 18 17 74 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 104.21 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 106.31 Average V&I Adj 135.3% 3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 18 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 29 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 301 3238 FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 8 6 8 10 11 12 13 14 8 58 Forecast 2019 8 6 9 10 11 12 14 14 61 1 Forecast 2020 8 7 9 10 11 13 14 57 1 Forecast 2021 9 7 9 10 12 13 51 1 Forecast 2022 9 7 9 11 12 48 1 Forecast 2023 9 9 7 10 11 46 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.34 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.80 Average V&I Adj 118.5% 1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 16 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 30 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: BLACKFORD

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 110 114 109 104 118 134 137 136 139 664 Forecast 2019 118 120 113 109 123 138 141 138 649 15 Forecast 2020 123 123 118 113 128 141 142 642 13 Forecast 2021 127 128 123 117 131 142 641 13 Forecast 2022 132 132 128 120 132 644 13 Forecast 2023 124 137 136 131 121 649 13 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.63 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.31 Average V&I Adj 184.4% 50 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 142 3232 FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 15 14 15 14 15 22 16 19 11 83 Forecast 2019 16 15 15 14 16 23 16 19 88 2 Forecast 2020 17 15 16 15 17 23 16 87 3 Forecast 2021 17 15 17 16 17 23 88 2 Forecast 2022 18 16 18 16 17 85 3 Forecast 2023 16 19 17 18 15 85 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.61 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.27 Average V&I Adj 123.4% 3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 220 3236 FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 21 23 19 19 25 25 21 23 24 118 Forecast 2019 22 24 20 20 25 26 23 23 117 4 Forecast 2020 23 25 20 20 26 28 23 117 3 Forecast 2021 24 26 20 21 28 28 123 4 Forecast 2022 24 26 21 23 27 121 2 Forecast 2023 24 24 27 23 23 121 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.97 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.64 Average V&I Adj 341.7% 15 per year 2019 Determined AN * 18 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 221 3237 MARK FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 22 20 24 22 23 25 28 40 29 145 Forecast 2019 24 22 26 23 25 26 29 41 144 6 Forecast 2020 25 23 27 24 27 26 29 133 4 Forecast 2021 27 24 29 25 27 25 130 3 Forecast 2022 28 25 31 25 27 136 4 Forecast 2023 25 30 26 31 25 137 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.98 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.96 Average V&I Adj 275.0% 14 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 31 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 386 3240 WEARE FIRST SCHOOL Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 26 24 25 21 26 28 33 19 32 138 Forecast 2019 28 25 25 23 27 28 34 19 131 4 Forecast 2020 29 25 26 24 27 29 33 139 2 Forecast 2021 29 27 27 24 28 29 135 4 Forecast 2022 30 28 27 25 28 138 3 Forecast 2023 27 31 28 28 25 139 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.67 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.89 Average V&I Adj 181.1% 11 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 388 2250 FIRST SCHOOL Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 26 33 26 28 29 34 39 35 43 180 Forecast 2019 28 34 27 29 30 35 39 36 169 4 Forecast 2020 29 35 29 30 31 35 41 166 6 Forecast 2021 30 36 30 31 31 37 165 5 Forecast 2022 32 37 31 31 33 164 6 Forecast 2023 32 33 38 31 33 167 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.91 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.39 Average V&I Adj 139.5% 8 per year 2019 Determined AN * 45 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 32 Upper School (13-18) Catchment Analysis Forecast Base Year: 2018

CREWKERNE WADHAM

Secondary Forecast: 522 4508 Total Net Total Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Pupils Year 9 10 11 12 13+ 9-13) (Yrs 9-11) (Yrs 9-11) Baseline 2018 151 132 140 19 21 463 423 Forecast 2019 140 151 131 22 17 462 -1 422 Forecast 2020 158 140 150 21 20 489 -1 448 Forecast 2021 158 158 139 24 18 497 -1 455 Forecast 2022 156 158 157 22 21 513 -1 470 Forecast 2023 167 156 157 25 20 524 -1 480 Forecast 2024 168 167 155 25 22 537 -1 490 Forecast 2025 153 168 166 25 22 535 -1 488 Forecast 2026 165 153 167 27 22 534 -1 485 Forecast 2027 162 165 152 27 23 529 -1 479 Forecast 2028 135 162 164 24 24 508 -1 460 Forecast 2029 151 135 161 26 21 494 -1 447

16+ Forecast 16.0% 17+ Forecast 88.0%

Upper School Migration: 99.5

Average transfer from middle (%): 95.5

2019 Determined AN * 230

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC Notes:

Middle School (9-12) Catchment Summary Forecast Base Year: 2018

Total Net Pupils Middle aged pupils: Catchment Summary Migration (Yrs 5-8) Pupils by NCY Year 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2018 181 182 168 147 678 Forecast 2019 189 180 168 165 702 -16 Forecast 2020 191 187 165 165 708 -16 Forecast 2021 180 190 177 163 710 -10 Forecast 2022 188 179 178 175 720 -10 Forecast 2023 188 188 164 176 717 -14 Forecast 2024 159 185 175 161 681 -14 Forecast 2025 176 157 172 172 678 -14 Forecast 2026 177 174 145 169 665 -14 Forecast 2027 190 175 161 142 668 -14 Forecast 2028 185 162 158 - - Forecast 2029 175 159 - -

Notes: The above data shows a summary of the pupils in years 5-8 in the Crewkerne/Ilminster planning area (including pupils in those years groups in primary schools).

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 33 Middle School (9-12) Catchment Analysis Forecast Base Year: 2018

CREWKERNE, MAIDEN BEECH MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 484 4287 Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Net Year 5 6 7 8 (Yrs 5-8) Migration Baseline 2018 103 102 99 91 395 Forecast 2019 105 104 98 98 405 -4 Forecast 2020 116 106 100 97 419 -4 Forecast 2021 89 117 102 99 407 -4 Forecast 2022 114 90 113 101 418 -4 Forecast 2023 108 115 86 112 421 -4 Forecast 2024 83 109 111 85 388 -4 Forecast 2025 104 84 105 110 402 -4 Forecast 2026 94 105 80 104 382 -4 Forecast 2027 111 95 101 79 385 -4 Forecast 2028 112 91 100 - - Forecast 2029 108 90 - -

Middle Migration: 98.7

Average transfer from primary (%): 96

2019 Determined AN * 123

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

ILMINSTER, SWANMEAD MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 494 4288 Total Pupils Net Pupils by NCY (Yrs 5-8) Migration Year 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2018 75 78 69 56 278 Forecast 2019 82 73 70 67 292 -12 Forecast 2020 70 80 65 68 283 -12 Forecast 2021 86 69 76 64 295 -6 Forecast 2022 71 85 65 75 296 -6 Forecast 2023 76 70 77 64 287 -10 Forecast 2024 73 74 64 75 286 -10 Forecast 2025 68 71 68 62 269 -10 Forecast 2026 79 66 65 66 276 -10 Forecast 2027 76 77 60 63 276 -10 Forecast 2028 74 71 58 - - Forecast 2029 68 69 - -

Middle Migration: 96.8

Average transfer from primary (%): 96

2019 Determined AN * 87

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 34 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: CREWKERNE

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 114 99 107 92 112 124 99 123 109 567 Forecast 2019 115 101 108 93 115 124 95 121 548 -3 Forecast 2020 117 102 109 93 116 121 93 532 -4 Forecast 2021 118 103 112 92 113 119 539 -3 Forecast 2022 119 104 113 88 112 536 -3 Forecast 2023 108 121 103 110 86 528 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.22 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.12 Average V&I Adj 92.4% -9 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 173 3278 HASELBURY PLUCKNETT FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 9 9 13 8 5 10 8 8 12 43 Forecast 2019 9 9 13 8 5 9 8 8 38 -1 Forecast 2020 9 9 13 7 4 9 8 41 -2 Forecast 2021 9 9 13 6 4 9 41 -1 Forecast 2022 9 8 12 6 4 39 -2 Forecast 2023 9 9 7 12 6 43 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 95.65 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 114.7% 1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 184 3064 HINTON ST GEORGE FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 7 9 11 7 9 15 8 17 5 54 Forecast 2019 7 9 11 7 9 14 7 17 54 -2 Forecast 2020 7 9 11 7 9 13 7 47 -1 Forecast 2021 7 9 11 6 8 13 47 -2 Forecast 2022 7 9 11 5 8 40 -1 Forecast 2023 8 7 8 10 5 38 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 95.83 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 154.5% 3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 16 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 228 2046 MERRIOTT FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 20 15 24 15 22 26 21 28 19 116 Forecast 2019 20 16 24 16 23 26 21 28 114 2 Forecast 2020 21 16 24 17 23 26 21 111 1 Forecast 2021 21 17 25 17 22 26 107 1 Forecast 2022 21 18 25 16 22 102 0 Forecast 2023 20 21 18 25 16 100 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.46 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.08 Average V&I Adj 123.3% 4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 24 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 35 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 237 3080 MISTERTON FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 14 10 7 6 8 11 8 8 11 46 Forecast 2019 14 10 7 6 8 11 7 7 39 -2 Forecast 2020 14 10 8 6 8 10 6 38 -1 Forecast 2021 14 10 8 6 8 10 42 0 Forecast 2022 15 10 8 6 8 47 1 Forecast 2023 10 15 10 7 5 47 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.47 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.89 Average V&I Adj 112.1% 1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

Town Area Summary: CREWKERNE

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 64 56 52 56 68 62 54 62 62 308 Forecast 2019 65 57 53 56 70 64 52 61 303 1 Forecast 2020 66 58 53 56 72 63 51 295 0 Forecast 2021 67 58 55 57 71 61 302 0 Forecast 2022 67 59 57 55 70 308 0 Forecast 2023 61 69 60 56 54 300 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.17 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.01 Average V&I Adj 76.8% -17 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for St Bartholomew's and Ashlands First schools.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 120 3037 CREWKERNE ST BARTHOLOMEWS FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 38 36 35 38 38 38 32 35 35 178 Forecast 2019 38 36 35 38 38 38 31 35 180 -1 Forecast 2020 38 36 35 37 38 38 30 178 -2 Forecast 2021 38 36 35 36 38 37 182 -2 Forecast 2022 38 36 35 35 37 181 -2 Forecast 2023 36 38 35 35 35 179 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.90 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 93.0% -3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 36 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 122 3035 CREWKERNE ASHLANDS FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 26 20 17 18 30 24 22 27 27 130 Forecast 2019 27 21 18 18 32 26 21 26 123 2 Forecast 2020 28 22 18 19 34 25 21 117 2 Forecast 2021 29 22 20 21 33 24 120 2 Forecast 2022 29 23 22 20 33 127 2 Forecast 2023 25 31 25 21 19 121 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.06 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.65 Average V&I Adj 58.3% -15 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 36 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: ILMINSTER

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 82 81 69 76 79 79 94 75 85 3 2 417 Forecast 2019 82 81 69 76 80 77 92 73 3 3 404 -5 Forecast 2020 83 81 70 77 78 77 90 5 2 399 -3 Forecast 2021 84 82 72 76 81 74 4 4 393 1 Forecast 2022 85 85 72 79 79 3 3 406 4 Forecast 2023 80 86 84 73 76 5 3 407 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.68 (years R to 4 only) 4 3 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.63 4 3 Average V&I Adj 91.5% -7 per year 4 3 4 3

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 23 3003 ILTON, ST MARY & ST PETER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0 1 2 3 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 8 6 5 8 4 6 8 4 8 3 0 33 Forecast 2019 8 6 5 8 4 6 7 4 3 3 35 -6 Forecast 2020 9 6 6 9 4 7 7 2 2 37 0 Forecast 2021 9 6 7 8 5 6 2 2 36 -5 Forecast 2022 9 7 7 9 5 3 1 41 -2 Forecast 2023 7 9 6 7 8 3 3 43 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 89.66 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.86 Average V&I Adj 42.2% -9 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes: This is a primary school with places for pupils up to year 6, although most transfer to middle at the end of year 4. The forecast continued opt out of pupils shown above is largely speculative based only on the recent trend. The position will be reviewed in future forecast calculations in light of the actual retention of pupils into year 5.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 196 3066 ILMINSTER, GREENFYLDE FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 66 64 57 59 68 68 74 60 72 342 Forecast 2019 66 64 57 59 68 67 74 58 326 -3 Forecast 2020 66 64 57 59 67 66 73 322 -3 Forecast 2021 67 65 58 60 69 65 317 4 Forecast 2022 68 66 59 62 68 323 4 Forecast 2023 64 69 67 61 61 322 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.23 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.48 Average V&I Adj 101.4% 1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 76 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 296 3098 SHEPTON BEAUCHAMP PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 8 11 7 9 7 5 1211 5 0 2 42 Forecast 2019 8 11 7 9 8 4 1111 0 0 43 -6 Forecast 2020 8 11 7 9 7 4103 0 40 -10 Forecast 2021 8 11 7 8 7 3 2 2 40 -11 Forecast 2022 8 12 6 8 6 0 2 42 -4 Forecast 2023 9 8 11 5 7 2 0 42 -7 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 81.09 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 116.7% 1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 10 Notes: This is a primary school with places for pupils up to year 6, although most transfer to middle at the end of year 4. The forecast continued opt out of pupils shown above is largely speculative based only on the recent trend. The position will be reviewed in future forecast calculations in light of the actual retention of pupils into year 5.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 37 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: FS01S 4002 STEINER ACADEMY FROME (Years 7-11) Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 25 28 26 27 0 0 0 106 106 Forecast 2019 25 25 29 26 27 0 0 132 1 132 Forecast 2020 26 25 26 29 26 0 0 133 1 133 Forecast 2021 26 26 26 26 29 0 0 134 1 134 Forecast 2022 49 26 27 26 26 0 0 155 1 155 Forecast 2023 50 49 27 27 26 0 0 180 1 180 Forecast 2024 51 50 50 27 27 0 0 206 1 206 Forecast 2025 49 51 51 50 27 0 0 228 1 228 Forecast 2026 50 49 52 51 50 0 0 252 1 252 Forecast 2027 49 50 50 52 51 0 0 252 1 252 Forecast 2028 50 49 51 50 52 0 0 252 1 252 Forecast 2029 49 50 50 51 50 0 0 250 1 250

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 100.3

Average transfer from primary (%): 98.0

2019 Determined AN * n/a

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes: This is an all-through school for children from 4 to 16 years of age. The above data refers to the secondary age range only. Data for the primary age ranges appears separately.

Upper School (13-18) Catchment Analysis Forecast Base Year: 2018

FROME COMMUNITY COLLEGE

Secondary Forecast: 527 4000 Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration Total Pupils Year 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 9-13) (Yrs 9-11) (Yrs 9-11) Baseline 2018 280 288 243 169 119 1099 811 Forecast 2019 279 276 283 168 113 1119 -9 838 Forecast 2020 290 275 271 205 112 1154 -9 837 Forecast 2021 318 286 270 197 138 1209 -9 875 Forecast 2022 280 314 281 197 132 1204 -9 876 Forecast 2023 284 276 309 204 132 1206 -9 870 Forecast 2024 312 280 271 223 137 1224 -9 864 Forecast 2025 280 308 275 197 150 1210 -9 863 Forecast 2026 297 276 303 200 132 1208 -9 876 Forecast 2027 272 293 271 229 134 1199 -9 836 Forecast 2028 308 268 288 207 153 1224 -9 864 Forecast 2029 295 304 263 219 139 1220 -9 862

16+ Forecast # 69.0% 17+ Forecast 67.0%

Upper School Migration: 95.5

Average transfer from middle (%): 99.8

2019 Determined AN * 366

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO Notes: # The 16+ forecast for this school has been increased from 2020 and again in 2027 in expectation of options in of year 11 leavers from the Steiner Academy Frome. This is a largely speculative increase based solely on the presence of additional pupils in the year 11 cohort.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 38 Middle School (9-12) Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

FROME MIDDLE SUMMARY

Middle Forecast: Total Pupils by NCY Pupils Net Year 5 6 7 8 (Yrs 5-8) Migration Baseline 2018 327 365 301 280 1273 Forecast 2019 331 327 327 291 1276 -48 Forecast 2020 359 331 289 319 1298 -46 Forecast 2021 327 359 293 281 1260 -46 Forecast 2022 344 327 321 285 1277 -46 Forecast 2023 318 344 289 313 1264 -46 Forecast 2024 355 318 306 281 1260 -46 Forecast 2025 342 355 280 298 1275 -46 Forecast 2026 314 342 317 272 1246 -46 Forecast 2027 315 314 304 309 1242 -46 Forecast 2028 315 276 296 - - Forecast 2029 277 268 - -

Middle Migration: 84.6

Average transfer from primary (%): 79.0

Notes: 1. The forecast transfer percentage is calculated from the entire year 4 cohort in the Frome planning area (not just pupils in the area first schools). 2. The above data is the combined roll of Selwood and Oakfield Middle schools

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 39 Middle School (9-12) Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

FROME, OAKFIELD MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 489 4257 Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Net Year 5 6 7 8 (Yrs 5-8) Migration Baseline 2018 156 172 149 161 638 Forecast 2019 162 155 152 145 614 -25 Forecast 2020 176 161 135 149 621 -24 Forecast 2021 160 175 141 132 608 -24 Forecast 2022 169 159 155 138 621 -24 Forecast 2023 156 168 139 152 614 -24

Middle Migration: 91.9

Average transfer from primary (%): 49.00

2019 Determined AN * 174

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

FROME, SELWOOD MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 491 4552 Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration Year 5 6 7 8 (Yrs 5-8) Baseline 2018 171 193 152 119 635 Forecast 2019 169 172 175 146 662 -23 Forecast 2020 183 170 154 170 677 -22 Forecast 2021 167 184 152 149 651 -22 Forecast 2022 175 168 166 147 656 -22 Forecast 2023 162 176 150 161 649 -22

Middle Migration: 92.6

Average transfer from primary (%): 51.00

2019 Determined AN * 189

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 40 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: FROME

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 382 386 420 438 401 441 421 455 399 56 59 2232 Forecast 2019 386 391 426 442 404 444 424 451 50 58 2273 5 Forecast 2020 391 397 430 447 406 447 419 76 52 2277 5 Forecast 2021 397 401 433 451 409 441 74 78 2287 4 Forecast 2022 401 406 436 453 403 80 76 2255 4 Forecast 2023 411 403 408 438 449 68 82 2259 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.23 (years R to 4 only) Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.20 Average V&I Adj 96.4% -15 per year Notes: The above data is a summary of the number on roll in all first and primary schools in the Frome planning area

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 28 3008 BECKINGTON FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 16 14 16 17 15 19 18 17 14 83 Forecast 2019 16 14 17 17 14 19 18 16 84 -2 Forecast 2020 16 15 17 17 14 19 17 84 -1 Forecast 2021 17 15 16 17 14 18 80 -2 Forecast 2022 17 15 16 17 13 78 -1 Forecast 2023 16 16 15 16 16 79 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.58 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.90 Average V&I Adj 140.0% 5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 30 3009 BERKLEY FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 17 17 18 18 20 21 18 22 19 100 Forecast 2019 17 18 18 19 20 22 18 22 101 2 Forecast 2020 18 18 19 19 21 22 18 99 2 Forecast 2021 18 19 19 20 21 21 100 1 Forecast 2022 19 19 20 20 20 98 1 Forecast 2023 19 19 20 20 20 98 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.75 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.39 Average V&I Adj 304.3% 12 per year 2019 Determined AN * 19 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 213 2043 LEIGH UPON MENDIP FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 7 10 13 10 7 15 8 10 7 47 Forecast 2019 7 10 13 10 7 15 8 9 49 -1 Forecast 2020 7 10 13 10 6 15 7 51 -2 Forecast 2021 7 10 13 10 6 14 53 -1 Forecast 2022 7 10 12 10 5 44 -2 Forecast 2023 9 7 10 12 9 47 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.53 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 181.8% 5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 41 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 227 3078 MELLS FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 10 11 16 13 10 18 14 8 15 65 Forecast 2019 11 11 16 13 10 17 13 6 59 -4 Forecast 2020 11 11 16 13 9 16 11 65 -4 Forecast 2021 11 11 16 12 8 14 61 -4 Forecast 2022 11 11 15 11 6 54 -4 Forecast 2023 12 11 10 14 10 57 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 92.46 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.83 Average V&I Adj 135.1% 3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 18 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 255 3342 NORTON ST PHILIP FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 5 5 7 11 10 10 12 12 2 46 Forecast 2019 5 5 7 11 10 10 12 12 55 0 Forecast 2020 5 5 7 11 10 10 11 49 -1 Forecast 2021 5 5 7 11 10 10 43 0 Forecast 2022 5 5 7 10 10 37 -1 Forecast 2023 7 5 5 7 10 34 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.92 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 147.4% 2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 258 2021 NUNNEY FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 10 5 12 9 12 9 4 11 5 41 Forecast 2019 10 5 12 9 11 9 4 10 43 -2 Forecast 2020 10 5 12 9 11 9 3 44 -1 Forecast 2021 10 5 11 9 11 8 44 -2 Forecast 2022 10 5 11 9 10 45 -1 Forecast 2023 9 9 5 11 8 42 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 95.58 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 76.6% -3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 18 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 286 3287 RODE FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 15 10 13 16 11 16 18 24 15 84 Forecast 2019 16 11 14 17 12 16 19 24 88 3 Forecast 2020 17 12 15 18 12 17 19 81 3 Forecast 2021 18 13 15 17 12 16 73 -1 Forecast 2022 19 13 14 17 11 74 -1 Forecast 2023 15 19 12 14 16 76 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.37 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 107.04 Average V&I Adj 128.6% 3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 18 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 42 Forecast Base Year: 2018

Town Area Summary: FROME

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 302 314 325 344 316 333 329 351 322 56 59 1766 Forecast 2019 304 317 329 346 320 336 332 352 50 58 1794 11 Forecast 2020 307 321 331 350 323 339 333 76 52 1804 11 Forecast 2021 311 323 336 355 327 340 74 78 1833 15 Forecast 2022 313 328 341 359 328 80 76 1825 15 Forecast 2023 324 317 331 344 360 68 82 1826 11 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.94 (years R to 4 only) Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.88 Average V&I Adj 88.5% -42 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Trinity, Christchurch, Hayesdown, St Johns, & Vallis First Schools, St Louis Primary School and the primary age groups of the Steiner Academy.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 151 3058 FROME TRINITY FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 57 58 58 59 55 60 58 60 58 291 Forecast 2019 57 58 59 60 55 60 58 59 292 0 Forecast 2020 57 59 60 60 55 60 57 292 0 Forecast 2021 58 60 61 62 56 60 299 5 Forecast 2022 59 61 63 63 56 302 5 Forecast 2023 59 59 61 63 62 304 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.42 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.21 Average V&I Adj 52.6% -52 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 152 3057 FROME CHRISTCHURCH FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 26 38 37 35 32 28 40 32 33 165 Forecast 2019 27 39 38 35 33 29 41 33 171 4 Forecast 2020 28 40 38 36 34 30 42 180 4 Forecast 2021 29 40 39 37 35 31 182 4 Forecast 2022 29 41 40 38 36 184 4 Forecast 2023 35 30 42 41 39 187 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.83 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.78 Average V&I Adj 56.2% -27 per year 2019 Determined AN * 48 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 153 2011 FROME HAYESDOWN FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 51 49 60 60 60 59 55 60 58 292 Forecast 2019 51 50 60 60 60 59 56 60 295 1 Forecast 2020 52 50 60 60 60 60 56 296 1 Forecast 2021 52 50 60 60 61 60 291 1 Forecast 2022 52 50 60 61 61 284 1 Forecast 2023 55 52 50 61 61 279 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.43 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.37 Average V&I Adj 41.8% -77 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 43 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 157 3369 FROME ST JOHN'S FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 52 53 55 60 56 56 54 62 61 289 Forecast 2019 52 54 55 60 57 57 54 63 291 3 Forecast 2020 53 54 55 61 58 57 55 286 3 Forecast 2021 53 54 56 62 58 57 287 2 Forecast 2022 53 55 57 62 58 285 2 Forecast 2023 55 54 56 57 63 285 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.14 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.37 Average V&I Adj 15.2% 55 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 158 3371 FROME ST LOUIS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 24 24 23 26 18 28 24 28 25 29 33 185 Forecast 2019 24 24 24 26 18 29 25 28 23 31 180 2 Forecast 2020 24 25 24 26 19 30 25 26 25 175 2 Forecast 2021 25 25 24 27 20 30 23 28 177 2 Forecast 2022 25 25 25 28 20 28 25 176 2 Forecast 2023 24 25 26 26 28 18 30 177 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.33 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.23 Average V&I Adj 6.7% 24 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 160 2028 FROME VALLIS FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 43 41 42 52 44 48 46 58 60 256 Forecast 2019 44 41 43 53 45 49 46 59 252 4 Forecast 2020 44 42 44 54 46 49 47 240 4 Forecast 2021 45 43 45 55 46 50 239 4 Forecast 2022 46 44 46 55 47 238 4 Forecast 2023 46 47 45 46 56 240 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.56 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.83 Average V&I Adj 73.3% -16 per year 2019 Determined AN * 56 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: FS01P 4002 STEINER ACADEMY FROME (Years R-6) Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 49 51 50 52 51 54 52 51 27 27 26 288 Forecast 2019 49 51 50 52 52 53 52 50 27 27 313 -1 Forecast 2020 49 51 50 53 51 53 51 50 27 335 -1 Forecast 2021 49 51 51 52 51 52 51 50 358 -1 Forecast 2022 49 52 50 52 50 52 51 356 -1 Forecast 2023 50 50 51 50 51 50 52 354 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.66 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 13.9% 51 per year 2019 Determined AN * 52 Notes: The above figures show the primary age groups at this school, data for the secondary age groups are shown in a separate table. The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 44 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 533 4258 GLASTONBURY, ST DUNSTAN'S Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 67 50 53 62 89 0 0 321 321 Forecast 2019 58 69 52 56 60 0 0 295 5 295 Forecast 2020 60 60 71 55 54 0 0 301 5 301 Forecast 2021 61 62 62 74 53 0 0 313 5 313 Forecast 2022 54 63 64 65 72 0 0 319 5 319 Forecast 2023 58 56 65 67 63 0 0 310 5 310 Forecast 2024 50 60 58 68 65 0 0 302 5 302 Forecast 2025 49 52 62 61 66 0 0 290 5 290 Forecast 2026 50 51 54 65 59 0 0 279 5 279 Forecast 2027 59 52 53 57 63 0 0 284 5 284 Forecast 2028 59 61 54 56 55 0 0 285 5 285 Forecast 2029 58 61 63 57 54 0 0 293 5 293

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 101.3

Average transfer from primary (%): 58.7

2019 Determined AN * 132

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 45 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: GLASTONBURY

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 113 117 116 107 111 116 127 119 125 124 115 837 Forecast 2019 114 119 120 109 112 115 125 115 123 121 820 -9 Forecast 2020 118 124 124 113 110 113 122 114 121 817 -2 Forecast 2021 122 128 127 112 108 110 121 112 818 -2 Forecast 2022 126 131 125 110 105 109 119 825 -3 Forecast 2023 122 129 130 123 107 104 107 822 -6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.98 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.91 Average V&I Adj 83.6% -22.25 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 21 3001 BALTONSBOROUGH PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 10 12 12 12 12 13 13 16 12 10 11 87 Forecast 2019 10 12 13 12 13 13 14 15 12 9 88 0 Forecast 2020 10 13 13 13 13 14 13 15 11 92 0 Forecast 2021 11 13 13 13 14 13 13 14 93 -1 Forecast 2022 11 13 13 14 13 13 12 89 -1 Forecast 2023 12 11 13 14 13 13 12 88 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.23 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.61 Average V&I Adj 82.1% -3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 80 3017 BUTLEIGH PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 11 11 15 8 14 12 17 12 12 16 7 90 Forecast 2019 11 11 15 8 15 12 17 11 12 15 90 -1 Forecast 2020 11 11 15 9 15 12 16 11 11 89 -1 Forecast 2021 11 11 16 9 15 11 16 10 88 -1 Forecast 2022 11 12 16 9 14 11 15 88 -1 Forecast 2023 12 12 12 16 8 14 10 84 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.71 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 264.7% 7 per year 2019 Determined AN * 16 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 166 3060 GLASTONBURY ST JOHN'S INFANTS Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 56 51 50 46 43 42 51 136 Forecast 2019 56 53 52 48 41 41 130 -1 Forecast 2020 58 55 54 48 40 142 1 Forecast 2021 60 57 54 47 158 1 Forecast 2022 62 57 53 172 1 Forecast 2023 55 62 56 173 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.62 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.35 Average V&I Adj 55.8% -40 per year 2019 Determined AN * 70 Notes: The above totals exclude the nursery class at this school

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 46 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 164 3322 GLASTONBURY ST BENEDICT'S JUNIOR Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 43 58 54 59 214 Forecast 2019 47 42 57 53 199 -7 Forecast 2020 37 47 42 57 183 -4 Forecast 2021 36 37 47 42 162 -4 Forecast 2022 43 36 37 47 163 -4 Forecast 2023 49 43 36 37 165 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.55 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 91.38 Average V&I Adj N/A 2019 Determined AN * 67 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 226 2045 MEARE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 12 17 17 15 14 18 16 16 17 16 14 111 Forecast 2019 13 17 18 15 15 18 16 16 16 16 112 0 Forecast 2020 13 18 18 16 15 18 16 15 16 114 0 Forecast 2021 13 18 19 16 15 18 15 15 116 0 Forecast 2022 13 19 19 16 15 17 15 114 0 Forecast 2023 16 14 19 19 16 14 17 115 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.96 Average V&I Adj 110.9% 2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 413 3121 WEST PENNARD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 24 26 22 26 28 31 30 32 26 28 24 199 Forecast 2019 24 26 22 26 28 31 31 31 26 28 201 0 Forecast 2020 26 27 24 27 27 32 30 31 26 197 2 Forecast 2021 27 29 25 27 28 31 30 31 201 3 Forecast 2022 29 30 24 28 27 31 30 199 2 Forecast 2023 28 30 30 25 27 27 31 198 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.23 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.00 Average V&I Adj 196.0% 12 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 47 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 535 4259 HUISH EPISCOPI Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 263 272 264 277 257 70 109 1512 1333 Forecast 2019 273 262 266 266 273 111 64 1514 -9 1340 Forecast 2020 275 272 256 268 262 117 101 1551 -9 1333 Forecast 2021 275 274 266 258 264 113 107 1557 -9 1338 Forecast 2022 281 274 268 268 254 114 103 1562 -9 1346 Forecast 2023 269 280 268 270 264 109 103 1565 -9 1352 Forecast 2024 293 268 274 270 266 114 99 1584 -9 1371 Forecast 2025 279 292 262 276 266 114 103 1593 -9 1375 Forecast 2026 277 278 286 264 272 114 104 1595 -9 1376 Forecast 2027 278 276 272 288 260 117 104 1594 -9 1373 Forecast 2028 250 277 270 274 284 112 107 1573 -9 1354 Forecast 2029 263 249 271 272 270 122 102 1549 -9 1325

16+ Forecast 43.0% 17+ Forecast 91.0%

Secondary Migration: 97.8

Average transfer from primary (%): 127.3

2019 Determined AN * 268

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 48 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: HUISH EPISCOPI

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 152 148 182 189 190 209 188 211 206 211 207 1422 Forecast 2019 159 154 187 191 199 215 193 216 212 215 1441 37 Forecast 2020 165 159 189 199 206 220 198 221 215 1448 35 Forecast 2021 170 161 198 205 211 225 204 225 1429 37 Forecast 2022 172 170 205 209 216 230 207 1409 35 Forecast 2023 177 181 175 210 214 221 234 1412 33 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.78 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.52 Average V&I Adj 106.7% 10.5 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 94 3020 CHARLTON MACKRELL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 7 11 8 12 13 12 11 10 8 13 9 76 Forecast 2019 7 12 8 12 14 12 10 11 8 13 80 1 Forecast 2020 8 12 8 13 14 12 11 11 8 77 2 Forecast 2021 8 12 9 13 14 13 11 11 83 2 Forecast 2022 8 13 9 13 15 13 11 82 2 Forecast 2023 10 9 13 9 14 15 13 83 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.60 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.15 Average V&I Adj 122.6% 2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 127 3039 CURRY MALLET PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 6 6 6 7 5 18 8 14 5 14 13 77 Forecast 2019 7 6 7 7 6 18 9 14 6 14 74 3 Forecast 2020 7 7 7 7 6 19 9 15 6 69 2 Forecast 2021 8 7 8 6 7 19 10 15 72 2 Forecast 2022 8 8 8 7 7 20 10 68 3 Forecast 2023 7 9 8 9 7 8 20 68 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 104.30 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.97 Average V&I Adj 277.8% 4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 128 3040 CURRY RIVEL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 19 12 20 23 21 25 23 24 27 19 20 159 Forecast 2019 20 13 20 23 22 26 24 24 28 19 166 4 Forecast 2020 21 13 21 24 23 27 24 25 28 172 5 Forecast 2021 21 14 22 25 24 27 25 25 162 5 Forecast 2022 21 15 23 26 24 28 25 162 4 Forecast 2023 19 22 14 24 26 24 28 157 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.41 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.75 Average V&I Adj 79.6% -5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 49 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 171 2029 HAMBRIDGE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 11 13 17 12 14 16 11 21 22 28 28 140 Forecast 2019 12 13 17 12 15 18 12 22 22 29 130 6 Forecast 2020 12 14 17 13 17 19 13 22 23 124 6 Forecast 2021 13 14 18 15 18 20 13 23 121 6 Forecast 2022 13 15 20 16 19 20 14 117 6 Forecast 2023 14 14 17 21 17 19 21 123 6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 105.83 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.24 Average V&I Adj 212.0% 7 per year 2019 Determined AN * 20 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 183 3062 HIGH HAM PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 20 19 19 20 21 21 25 21 24 25 30 167 Forecast 2019 20 20 19 20 21 20 26 21 25 25 158 1 Forecast 2020 21 20 19 20 21 21 26 21 25 153 1 Forecast 2021 21 20 19 20 22 21 27 21 150 2 Forecast 2022 21 20 19 21 22 21 27 151 1 Forecast 2023 20 21 20 20 21 23 21 146 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.08 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.01 Average V&I Adj 410.5% 15 per year 2019 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 190 2034 HUISH EPISCOPI PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 20 13 21 24 22 23 20 29 22 24 21 161 Forecast 2019 21 13 22 24 23 24 21 30 22 25 169 5 Forecast 2020 21 14 22 25 24 25 22 30 23 171 5 Forecast 2021 22 14 23 26 25 26 22 31 167 5 Forecast 2022 22 15 24 27 26 26 22 162 4 Forecast 2023 20 23 16 25 28 26 27 165 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.39 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.09 Average V&I Adj 44.8% -24 per year 2019 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 207 2041 KINGSBURY EPISCOPI PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 13 15 18 22 24 26 28 19 25 24 23 169 Forecast 2019 14 16 19 22 25 27 28 19 26 25 172 4 Forecast 2020 15 16 19 23 26 26 28 20 26 168 2 Forecast 2021 16 16 20 24 26 26 29 21 162 4 Forecast 2022 16 17 21 24 26 27 30 161 4 Forecast 2023 18 17 18 21 24 27 28 153 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.55 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.05 Average V&I Adj 251.9% 10 per year 2019 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 50 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 215 3331 LONG SUTTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 11 11 10 11 14 10 15 8 12 13 18 90 Forecast 2019 12 11 11 11 15 10 16 8 13 13 86 3 Forecast 2020 12 12 11 12 15 11 16 9 13 87 3 Forecast 2021 12 12 12 12 16 11 17 9 89 3 Forecast 2022 12 13 12 12 16 12 17 94 2 Forecast 2023 12 13 13 13 12 17 12 92 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.72 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.65 Average V&I Adj 179.2% 5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 230 2172 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 4 4 7 6 5 7 5 5 6 4 12 44 Forecast 2019 4 4 7 6 6 7 5 5 6 4 39 1 Forecast 2020 4 4 7 7 6 7 5 5 6 43 1 Forecast 2021 4 4 8 7 5 7 5 5 41 0 Forecast 2022 4 5 8 7 5 7 5 41 1 Forecast 2023 5 5 5 8 7 5 7 42 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.27 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 100.0% 0 per year 2019 Determined AN * 15 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 267 2177 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 5 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 10 9 4 50 Forecast 2019 56565977109 53 1 Forecast 2020 5 6 5 6 6 9 7 7 10 50 1 Forecast 2021 5 6 5 7 6 9 7 7 47 1 Forecast 2022 5 6 6 6 6 9 7 45 0 Forecast 2023 5 5 7 6 6 6 9 44 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.92 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 95.7% 0 per year 2019 Determined AN * 15 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 304 2064 SOMERTON, KING INA INFANTS Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 36 38 51 46 46 43 35 124 Forecast 2019 37 40 52 48 47 44 139 4 Forecast 2020 39 41 53 49 48 150 3 Forecast 2021 40 42 54 50 146 3 Forecast 2022 42 43 55 140 4 Forecast 2023 45 43 44 132 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.14 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.33 Average V&I Adj 93.4% -3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 45 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 51 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 305 3353 SOMERTON, KING INA JUNIOR Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 53 45 38 29 165 Forecast 2019 35 55 46 39 175 4 Forecast 2020 44 37 56 47 184 4 Forecast 2021 48 46 38 57 189 4 Forecast 2022 50 50 47 39 186 4 Forecast 2023 54 52 51 48 205 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.91 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 99.57 Average V&I Adj N/A 2019 Determined AN * 45 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 52 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: NORTH MENDIP

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 74 79 80 91 82 87 81 82 81 76 71 560 Forecast 2019 76 82 82 92 85 90 82 84 83 79 595 15 Forecast 2020 78 84 83 95 87 89 84 87 85 610 12 Forecast 2021 80 85 86 97 86 91 87 89 621 12 Forecast 2022 81 88 88 96 88 93 90 624 12 Forecast 2023 84 85 90 87 98 90 95 629 11 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.23 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.11 Average V&I Adj 177.0% 35.25 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 107 3029 COLEFORD, BISHOP HENDERSON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 19 22 22 29 21 30 20 21 19 21 22 154 Forecast 2019 20 23 22 29 22 31 20 21 19 22 164 3 Forecast 2020 21 23 23 30 23 30 20 22 20 168 4 Forecast 2021 21 24 24 31 22 30 21 23 175 4 Forecast 2022 22 25 25 30 22 31 22 177 4 Forecast 2023 24 23 26 25 30 22 32 182 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.06 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.70 Average V&I Adj 80.7% -6 per year 2019 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 176 2030 HEMINGTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 57775338275 33 Forecast 2019 5 8 7 8 6 4 3 8 2 6 37 2 Forecast 2020 6 8 7 9 6 4 3 9 1 39 1 Forecast 2021 6 8 8 9 6 4 4 8 47 1 Forecast 2022 6 9 8 9 6 4 3 45 0 Forecast 2023 7 7 9 7 9 7 3 49 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.69 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.55 Average V&I Adj 96.3% 0 per year 2019 Determined AN * 7 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 204 3329 KILMERSDON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 23 21 23 25 25 24 29 22 31 22 27 180 Forecast 2019 23 22 24 25 26 25 29 23 32 23 183 5 Forecast 2020 23 23 24 26 27 25 30 24 33 189 5 Forecast 2021 24 23 25 27 27 26 31 25 184 5 Forecast 2022 24 24 26 27 28 27 32 188 5 Forecast 2023 24 25 25 26 28 29 28 185 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.19 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.73 Average V&I Adj 219.0% 13 per year 2019 Determined AN * 24 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 53 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 325 3358 ST BENEDICTS PRIMARY, MIDSOMER NORTON Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 27 29 28 30 31 30 29 31 29 26 17 193 Forecast 2019 28 29 29 30 31 30 30 32 30 28 211 5 Forecast 2020 28 30 29 30 31 30 31 32 31 214 2 Forecast 2021 29 30 29 30 31 31 31 33 215 2 Forecast 2022 29 30 29 30 32 31 33 214 3 Forecast 2023 30 30 30 29 31 32 32 214 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.66 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.39 Average V&I Adj 62.3% -17 per year 2019 Determined AN * 27 Notes: Catchment data for this school is the total of the other primary schools in this area

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 54 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 544 4282 , WHITSTONE Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 106 124 105 90 89 0 0 514 514 Forecast 2019 111 105 122 108 88 0 0 534 -2 534 Forecast 2020 117 110 103 125 106 0 0 561 -2 561 Forecast 2021 110 116 108 106 123 0 0 563 -2 563 Forecast 2022 116 109 114 111 104 0 0 554 -2 554 Forecast 2023 119 115 107 117 109 0 0 567 -2 567 Forecast 2024 93 118 113 110 115 0 0 550 -2 550 Forecast 2025 94 93 116 116 108 0 0 528 -1 528 Forecast 2026 117 94 91 119 114 0 0 535 -1 535 Forecast 2027 107 117 92 94 117 0 0 528 -1 528 Forecast 2028 112 107 115 95 92 0 0 521 -1 521 Forecast 2029 115 112 105 118 93 0 0 543 -1 543

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 99.6

Average transfer from primary (%): 68.6

2019 Determined AN * 125

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 55 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: SHEPTON MALLET

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 163 160 156 170 140 142 182 174 164 175 165 1142 Forecast 2019 165 162 159 174 140 144 177 175 162 174 1146 -1 Forecast 2020 167 166 163 174 143 140 178 173 161 1132 1 Forecast 2021 171 170 163 177 138 141 176 172 1137 0 Forecast 2022 174 169 166 172 139 139 175 1134 -2 Forecast 2023 166 171 171 161 173 137 138 1117 -8 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.48 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.95 Average V&I Adj 80.7% -38.75 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 124 3311 CROSCOMBE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 11 8 5 13 7 9 12 13 9 14 11 75 Forecast 2019 11 8 5 13 6 9 12 13 9 14 76 -1 Forecast 2020 11 9 5 13 7 9 12 13 9 68 1 Forecast 2021 12 9 5 14 7 9 12 13 69 1 Forecast 2022 12 8 6 14 7 9 12 68 0 Forecast 2023 10 12 8 6 14 7 9 66 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.34 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.15 Average V&I Adj 205.6% 5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 134 3041 DOULTING ST ALDHELM'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 29 26 26 29 22 30 29 29 30 35 26 201 Forecast 2019 29 27 26 30 22 30 28 28 28 34 200 -4 Forecast 2020 29 27 27 29 22 29 27 26 27 187 -5 Forecast 2021 29 28 27 29 21 28 25 25 183 -4 Forecast 2022 29 28 27 28 20 26 24 182 -5 Forecast 2023 28 28 28 26 27 18 25 180 -6 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.70 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.44 Average V&I Adj 297.3% 18 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 262 3085 OAKHILL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 16 20 19 15 18 14 21 18 21 17 19 128 Forecast 2019 16 20 19 15 18 15 21 18 21 17 125 1 Forecast 2020 16 20 19 15 19 15 21 18 21 128 1 Forecast 2021 16 20 18 16 19 15 21 18 127 0 Forecast 2022 16 20 19 16 19 15 21 126 1 Forecast 2023 18 16 21 19 16 19 15 124 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.74 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 142.9% 5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 56 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 319 2067 STOKE ST MICHAEL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 968656134857 48 Forecast 2019 106 9 6 6 6133 8 5 47 0 Forecast 2020 107 9 7 6 6123 8 51 0 Forecast 2021 11 7 10 7 6 5 12 3 50 0 Forecast 2022 11 8 10 7 5 5 12 58 0 Forecast 2023 8 11 8 10 6 5 5 53 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.54 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.88 Average V&I Adj 65.9% -4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 7 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 375 3129 UPTON NOBLE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 15 19 19 14 12 21 25 28 22 27 25 160 Forecast 2019 15 20 19 15 12 22 25 29 21 27 151 2 Forecast 2020 16 20 20 15 13 22 26 28 21 145 2 Forecast 2021 16 21 20 16 13 23 25 28 146 2 Forecast 2022 17 21 21 16 14 22 25 136 2 Forecast 2023 18 16 22 21 17 13 22 129 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.65 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.47 Average V&I Adj 108.1% 1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

Town Area Summary: SHEPTON MALLET

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 83 81 79 93 76 62 82 82 74 77 77 530 Forecast 2019 84 81 81 95 76 62 78 84 75 77 547 1 Forecast 2020 85 83 83 95 76 59 80 85 75 553 2 Forecast 2021 87 85 83 95 72 61 81 85 562 1 Forecast 2022 89 84 83 91 74 62 81 564 0 Forecast 2023 86 88 84 79 93 75 62 567 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.75 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.91 Average V&I Adj 56.6% -64.5 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Bowlish Inf, Shepton Mallet Inf and Shepton Mallet St Paul's

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 40 2106 BOWLISH INFANTS Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 37 38 39 40 37 29 39 105 Forecast 2019 38 38 40 40 36 29 105 -1 Forecast 2020 38 39 40 39 36 115 -1 Forecast 2021 39 39 39 39 117 -1 Forecast 2022 39 39 39 117 0 Forecast 2023 39 39 39 117 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.20 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.04 Average V&I Adj 152.5% 13 per year 2019 Determined AN * 39 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 57 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 298 2062 SHEPTON MALLET INFANTS Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 46 43 40 53 39 33 43 115 Forecast 2019 46 43 41 55 40 33 128 3 Forecast 2020 47 44 43 56 40 139 3 Forecast 2021 48 46 44 56 146 3 Forecast 2022 50 45 44 139 1 Forecast 2023 47 49 45 141 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.22 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.66 Average V&I Adj 36.9% -78 per year 2019 Determined AN * 47 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 299 3132 SHEPTON MALLET, ST PAUL'S JUNIOR Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 82 74 77 77 310 Forecast 2019 78 84 75 77 314 -1 Forecast 2020 59 80 85 75 299 0 Forecast 2021 72 61 81 85 299 -1 Forecast 2022 91 74 62 81 308 -1 Forecast 2023 79 93 75 62 309 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.32 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 175.46 Average V&I Adj N/A 2019 Determined AN * 74 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 58 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 546 4450 STOKE-SUB-HAMDON, STANCHESTER Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 139 125 120 120 113 0 0 617 617 Forecast 2019 150 139 125 120 117 0 0 651 -3 651 Forecast 2020 131 150 139 125 117 0 0 661 -3 661 Forecast 2021 139 131 150 139 122 0 0 680 -3 680 Forecast 2022 139 139 131 150 136 0 0 694 -3 694 Forecast 2023 132 139 139 131 147 0 0 687 -3 687 Forecast 2024 141 132 139 139 128 0 0 678 -3 678 Forecast 2025 130 141 132 139 136 0 0 677 -3 677 Forecast 2026 144 130 141 132 136 0 0 682 -3 682 Forecast 2027 123 144 130 141 129 0 0 667 -3 667 Forecast 2028 125 123 144 130 138 0 0 659 -3 659 Forecast 2029 118 125 123 144 127 0 0 637 -3 637

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 99.3

Average transfer from primary (%): 61.8

2019 Determined AN * 120

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 59 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: STOKE-SUB-HAMDON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 182 195 194 227 210 227 214 221 223 213 230 1538 Forecast 2019 185 197 196 228 212 226 210 223 227 212 1538 3 Forecast 2020 187 199 198 230 211 225 211 226 225 1526 4 Forecast 2021 189 200 200 229 210 227 215 225 1506 6 Forecast 2022 191 203 201 229 210 230 214 1478 8 Forecast 2023 203 193 203 199 231 212 228 1469 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.26 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.97 Average V&I Adj 89.3% -24 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 11 3276 ASH PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 17 19 22 25 20 27 26 24 27 20 26 170 Forecast 2019 17 20 22 25 20 27 26 25 28 21 172 3 Forecast 2020 18 20 22 25 20 28 27 25 28 175 2 Forecast 2021 18 20 22 25 21 29 28 25 170 3 Forecast 2022 18 20 22 26 22 30 29 167 4 Forecast 2023 20 18 20 21 26 22 30 157 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.52 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.01 Average V&I Adj 518.8% 17 per year 2019 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 194 2327 ILCHESTER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 42 44 43 42 41 42 38 34 50 38 40 283 Forecast 2019 43 44 44 42 41 40 36 33 50 37 279 -6 Forecast 2020 43 44 45 42 39 37 35 33 49 280 -6 Forecast 2021 44 44 45 40 37 36 35 32 269 -6 Forecast 2022 44 44 43 38 36 36 34 275 -6 Forecast 2023 43 44 43 44 39 36 36 285 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.99 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.92 Average V&I Adj 95.0% -2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 47 Notes: Number on roll is subject to fluctuation as a result of movement of service families linked to RNAS Yeovilton.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 224 3486 MARTOCK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 25 23 24 34 29 31 30 40 30 24 29 213 Forecast 2019 25 23 24 35 29 31 30 39 30 23 217 -1 Forecast 2020 25 23 24 35 29 32 29 39 29 217 -1 Forecast 2021 25 24 24 35 28 31 29 38 209 -2 Forecast 2022 25 24 24 36 27 31 28 195 -1 Forecast 2023 27 25 24 23 35 27 30 191 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.89 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.80 Average V&I Adj 57.9% -19 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 60 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 241 3493 MONTACUTE, ALL SAINTS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 24 25 29 30 29 30 30 30 32 32 31 214 Forecast 2019 24 25 29 30 29 30 30 31 33 31 214 1 Forecast 2020 24 26 29 30 29 29 31 32 32 212 0 Forecast 2021 25 26 29 30 30 29 32 31 207 1 Forecast 2022 26 28 31 29 30 29 31 204 3 Forecast 2023 27 28 30 32 28 30 28 203 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.78 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.15 Average V&I Adj 52.2% -25 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 256 3281 NORTON SUB HAMDON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 14 14 15 17 10 16 16 16 16 18 19 111 Forecast 2019 14 14 15 17 10 16 15 17 16 18 109 0 Forecast 2020 14 14 15 17 10 15 15 17 16 105 -1 Forecast 2021 14 14 15 17 9 16 15 17 103 0 Forecast 2022 14 14 15 16 9 16 15 99 -1 Forecast 2023 14 14 14 13 17 9 16 97 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.32 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 162.2% 6 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 307 3484 SOUTH PETHERTON INFANTS Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 22 34 33 35 46 34 36 116 Forecast 2019 23 35 34 35 46 35 116 1 Forecast 2020 24 36 35 35 47 117 2 Forecast 2021 24 36 35 36 107 1 Forecast 2022 25 36 36 97 2 Forecast 2023 34 25 36 95 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.10 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.33 Average V&I Adj 101.6% 1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 35 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 308 2306 SOUTH PETHERTON JUNIOR Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 37 25 36 36 134 Forecast 2019 35 37 26 36 134 0 Forecast 2020 35 36 38 27 136 3 Forecast 2021 47 36 37 39 159 3 Forecast 2022 36 48 37 38 159 3 Forecast 2023 35 37 49 37 158 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.20 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 98.95 Average V&I Adj N/A 2019 Determined AN * 37 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 61 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 320 2014 STOKE-SUB-HAMDON, CASTLE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 22 18 15 18 18 24 20 17 22 21 24 146 Forecast 2019 22 18 15 18 19 24 20 17 23 21 142 2 Forecast 2020 22 18 15 19 19 25 20 18 23 139 3 Forecast 2021 22 18 16 19 20 25 21 18 137 3 Forecast 2022 22 18 16 20 20 26 21 143 2 Forecast 2023 19 22 18 17 20 21 25 142 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.83 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 75.3% -6 per year 2019 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 364 3485 TINTINHULL, ST MARGARET'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 12 11 9 16 12 14 13 15 16 15 16 101 Forecast 2019 12 11 9 16 12 14 13 15 16 16 102 1 Forecast 2020 12 11 9 16 12 15 13 15 16 96 1 Forecast 2021 12 11 9 16 12 15 13 16 92 1 Forecast 2022 12 11 9 17 12 15 13 89 1 Forecast 2023 12 12 10 9 17 12 16 88 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.99 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 133.3% 3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 15 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 407 3284 WEST CHINNOCK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 4 7 4 10 5 9 5 8 5 9 9 50 Forecast 2019 5 7 4 10 6 9 5 9 5 9 53 2 Forecast 2020 5 7 4 11 6 9 5 9 5 49 1 Forecast 2021 5 7 5 11 6 10 5 9 53 2 Forecast 2022 5 8 5 11 6 10 5 50 1 Forecast 2023 6 5 8 5 12 6 10 52 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.21 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.72 Average V&I Adj 156.3% 2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 62 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 548 4283 STREET, CRISPIN Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 200 201 232 209 190 0 0 1032 1032 Forecast 2019 222 197 201 233 207 0 0 1060 -4 1060 Forecast 2020 228 219 197 202 231 0 0 1077 -4 1077 Forecast 2021 241 225 219 198 200 0 0 1083 -4 1083 Forecast 2022 216 238 225 220 196 0 0 1095 -4 1095 Forecast 2023 237 213 238 226 218 0 0 1132 -4 1132 Forecast 2024 218 234 213 239 224 0 0 1128 -4 1128 Forecast 2025 222 216 234 214 237 0 0 1123 -3 1123 Forecast 2026 230 220 216 235 212 0 0 1113 -3 1113 Forecast 2027 197 228 220 217 233 0 0 1095 -3 1095 Forecast 2028 181 195 228 221 215 0 0 1041 -3 1041 Forecast 2029 185 179 195 229 219 0 0 1008 -3 1008

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 99.1

Average transfer from primary (%): 102.8

2019 Determined AN * 224

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 63 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: STREET

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 149 148 164 200 199 198 217 201 230 220 216 1481 Forecast 2019 152 151 169 207 202 199 222 205 233 221 1489 24 Forecast 2020 155 156 176 210 203 203 226 208 234 1460 23 Forecast 2021 160 162 179 211 208 207 229 210 1406 24 Forecast 2022 167 165 180 216 212 210 230 1380 24 Forecast 2023 177 169 166 185 220 215 212 1344 17 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.39 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.18 Average V&I Adj 102.2% 3.5 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 13 2150 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 15 16 15 17 18 15 18 17 14 22 14 118 Forecast 2019 16 16 16 18 18 15 19 17 15 22 124 3 Forecast 2020 16 17 17 18 18 16 19 18 15 121 3 Forecast 2021 17 17 17 18 19 16 19 19 125 2 Forecast 2022 18 17 17 19 19 16 19 125 2 Forecast 2023 18 18 17 18 19 19 16 125 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.53 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.35 Average V&I Adj 134.0% 4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 86 2166 PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 17 12 18 21 21 22 24 17 22 30 25 161 Forecast 2019 17 13 18 22 21 22 25 17 22 31 160 3 Forecast 2020 17 13 19 22 21 22 25 17 23 149 2 Forecast 2021 17 14 19 22 22 22 25 18 142 3 Forecast 2022 18 14 19 23 22 22 26 144 3 Forecast 2023 18 18 14 20 23 22 23 138 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.42 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.07 Average V&I Adj 86.1% -3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 381 3110 WALTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 15 17 20 20 21 22 23 21 17 22 23 149 Forecast 2019 15 17 21 21 22 22 23 21 18 22 149 3 Forecast 2020 16 18 22 22 22 22 23 22 18 151 3 Forecast 2021 17 19 23 22 22 22 24 22 154 3 Forecast 2022 18 20 23 22 22 23 24 152 3 Forecast 2023 20 18 20 23 22 23 24 150 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.55 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.55 Average V&I Adj 156.5% 7 per year 2019 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 64 Forecast Base Year: 2018

Town Area Summary: STREET

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 102 103 111 142 139 139 152 146 177 146 154 1053 Forecast 2019 104 105 114 146 141 140 155 150 178 146 1056 15 Forecast 2020 106 108 118 148 142 143 159 151 178 1039 15 Forecast 2021 109 112 120 149 145 147 161 151 985 16 Forecast 2022 113 114 121 152 149 149 161 959 16 Forecast 2023 122 115 115 124 156 151 149 932 12 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.35 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.81 Average V&I Adj 96.4% -4.25 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Hindhayes Infant, Elmhurst Junior and Brookside Primary Schools

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 327 2113 STREET BROOKSIDE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 57 60 60 62 64 61 62 63 95 67 70 482 Forecast 2019 59 60 62 62 64 61 64 65 95 67 478 4 Forecast 2020 59 62 62 62 64 63 66 65 95 477 4 Forecast 2021 61 62 62 62 66 65 67 65 449 5 Forecast 2022 61 62 62 64 68 66 67 450 5 Forecast 2023 62 61 62 64 66 69 66 450 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.17 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.33 Average V&I Adj 129.2% 14 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 329 2069 STREET HINDHAYES INFANTS Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 45 43 51 80 75 78 90 243 Forecast 2019 45 45 52 84 77 79 240 7 Forecast 2020 47 46 56 86 78 220 7 Forecast 2021 48 50 58 87 195 7 Forecast 2022 52 52 59 163 7 Forecast 2023 60 54 53 167 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.25 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.58 Average V&I Adj 75.5% -18 per year 2019 Determined AN * 76 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 328 2068 STREET ELMHURST JUNIOR Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 83 82 79 84 328 Forecast 2019 91 85 83 79 338 4 Forecast 2020 80 93 86 83 342 4 Forecast 2021 79 82 94 86 341 4 Forecast 2022 88 81 83 94 346 4 Forecast 2023 60 90 82 83 315 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.18 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 101.27 Average V&I Adj N/A 2019 Determined AN * 83 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 65 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: TAUNTON SECONDARY SUMMARY Net Total Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Migration Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 863 857 817 779 783 39 43 4181 4099 Forecast 2019 897 865 854 814 776 39 35 4280 -7 4206 Forecast 2020 917 899 862 851 811 40 35 4416 -7 4340 Forecast 2021 964 919 896 859 848 41 36 4564 -7 4487 Forecast 2022 968 966 916 893 856 45 37 4682 -7 4600 Forecast 2023 962 970 963 913 890 44 41 4784 -7 4699 Forecast 2024 922 964 967 960 910 45 40 4809 -7 4724 Forecast 2025 1006 924 961 964 957 46 41 4900 -7 4813 Forecast 2026 960 1008 921 958 961 49 42 4899 -7 4808 Forecast 2027 945 962 1005 918 955 49 44 4878 -7 4784 Forecast 2028 984 947 959 1002 915 49 44 4900 -7 4806 Forecast 2029 966 986 944 956 999 47 44 4942 -7 4850

16+ Forecast see note 17+ Forecast below

Secondary Migration: 98

Average transfer from primary (%): 98.4

Notes: The above represents the combined forecasts of the following schools: The Castle, Heathfield, Bishop Fox's and the Taunton Academy . The 16+ forecast data above is the total forecast of the individual school 6th forms.

Secondary Forecast: 579 4358 TAUNTON, THE CASTLE Net Total Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Migration Years 7- Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11 Baseline 2018 240 242 239 238 237 0 0 1196 1196 Forecast 2019 248 240 240 239 236 0 0 1203 -4 1203 Forecast 2020 243 248 238 240 237 0 0 1206 -4 1206 Forecast 2021 246 243 246 238 238 0 0 1211 -4 1211 Forecast 2022 247 246 241 246 236 0 0 1216 -4 1216 Forecast 2023 245 247 244 241 244 0 0 1221 -4 1221

16+ Forecast 0.0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 26.13 Secondary Migration: 99.0

2019 Determined AN * 240

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 66 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 585 4354 TAUNTON, HEATHFIELD Net Total Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Migration Years 7- Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11 Baseline 2018 265 270 242 240 229 39 43 1328 1246 Forecast 2019 270 265 268 242 238 39 35 1357 -4 1283 Forecast 2020 275 270 263 268 240 40 35 1391 -4 1316 Forecast 2021 289 275 268 263 266 41 36 1438 -4 1361 Forecast 2022 290 289 273 268 261 45 37 1463 -4 1382 Forecast 2023 289 290 287 273 266 44 41 1490 -4 1405

16+ Forecast 17.0% 17+ Forecast 90.0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 30.01 Secondary Migration: 99.0

2019 Determined AN * 270

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 590 4100 TAUNTON, BISHOP FOX'S Net Total Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Migration Years 7- Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11 Baseline 2018 197 191 193 191 185 0 0 957 957 Forecast 2019 209 197 189 188 190 0 0 973 -8 973 Forecast 2020 220 209 195 184 187 0 0 995 -8 995 Forecast 2021 231 220 207 190 183 0 0 1032 -8 1032 Forecast 2022 232 231 218 202 189 0 0 1073 -8 1073 Forecast 2023 231 232 229 213 201 0 0 1107 -8 1107

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 23.86 Secondary Migration: 98.0

2019 Determined AN * 195

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 905 6905 TAUNTON ACADEMY Net Total Pupils by NCY Total Pupils Migration Years 7- Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11 Baseline 2018 161 154 143 110 132 0 0 700 700 Forecast 2019 170 163 157 145 112 0 0 747 9 747 Forecast 2020 179 172 166 159 147 0 0 823 9 823 Forecast 2021 198 181 175 168 161 0 0 883 9 883 Forecast 2022 198 200 184 177 170 0 0 929 9 929 Forecast 2023 197 200 203 186 179 0 0 966 9 966

16+ Forecast 0.0% 17+ Forecast 0.0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 20.00 Secondary Migration: 102.3

2019 Determined AN * 220

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 67 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: TAUNTON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 884 922 906 936 990 906 955 969 969 927 911 6627 Forecast 2019 905 945 919 944 998 911 963 972 976 931 6695 43 Forecast 2020 927 958 925 949 1002 920 964 979 979 6718 35 Forecast 2021 941 966 933 955 1011 924 972 983 6744 47 Forecast 2022 948 975 939 963 1014 932 977 6748 46 Forecast 2023 954 956 979 948 966 1020 936 6759 34 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.61 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.46 Average V&I Adj 93.7% -61.25 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 34 2200 BISHOPS HULL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 20 25 37 27 35 33 33 28 35 33 33 230 Forecast 2019 21 27 37 28 36 34 34 28 35 33 228 4 Forecast 2020 23 27 38 29 37 35 34 28 35 236 4 Forecast 2021 23 27 38 29 37 35 34 28 228 0 Forecast 2022 23 27 38 29 37 35 34 223 0 Forecast 2023 29 23 27 38 29 37 35 218 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.61 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.62 Average V&I Adj 74.7% -9 per year 2019 Determined AN * 33 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 97 2010 CHEDDON FITZPAINE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 17 18 19 19 26 17 23 25 20 21 22 154 Forecast 2019 19 18 20 20 26 17 23 24 21 21 152 1 Forecast 2020 19 19 21 20 26 17 22 25 21 152 1 Forecast 2021 20 20 21 20 26 16 23 25 151 1 Forecast 2022 21 20 21 20 25 17 23 147 1 Forecast 2023 20 21 20 22 20 26 17 146 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.31 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.79 Average V&I Adj 146.0% 6 per year 2019 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 105 2203 CHURCHSTANTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 7 6 9 7 7136 5109 9 59 Forecast 2019 7 7 10 8 8 14 7 5 10 9 61 4 Forecast 2020 7 7 10 8 8 14 7 5 10 62 0 Forecast 2021 7 7 10 8 8 14 7 5 59 0 Forecast 2022 7 7 10 8 8 14 7 61 0 Forecast 2023 8 7 7 10 8 8 14 62 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.15 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.05 Average V&I Adj 96.7% 0 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 68 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 117 3178 CREECH ST MICHAEL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 34 37 33 35 36 42 37 38 42 41 39 275 Forecast 2019 36 39 34 35 36 42 37 39 43 42 274 3 Forecast 2020 38 40 34 35 36 42 38 40 44 269 3 Forecast 2021 39 40 34 35 36 43 39 41 268 3 Forecast 2022 39 40 34 35 37 44 40 269 3 Forecast 2023 38 39 40 34 36 38 45 270 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.31 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.47 Average V&I Adj 112.1% 4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 38 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 175 2031 HATCH BEAUCHAMP PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 35340146374 25 Forecast 2019 3 5 3 4 0 1 4 6 3 7 25 0 Forecast 2020 3 5 3 4 0 1 4 6 3 21 0 Forecast 2021 3 5 3 4 0 1 4 6 23 0 Forecast 2022 3 5 3 4 0 1 4 20 0 Forecast 2023 3 3 5 3 4 0 1 19 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 46.9% -4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 209 3180 KINGSTON ST MARY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 12 14 10 17 9 11 18 19 17 17 16 107 Forecast 2019 12 14 10 17 9 11 18 19 17 17 108 0 Forecast 2020 12 14 10 17 9 11 18 19 17 101 0 Forecast 2021 12 14 10 17 9 11 18 19 98 0 Forecast 2022 12 14 10 17 9 11 18 91 0 Forecast 2023 13 12 14 10 17 9 11 86 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 147.2% 4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 246 3182 NORTH CURRY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 22 18 18 24 25 20 18 28 30 17 28 166 Forecast 2019 22 19 18 24 25 20 19 28 30 18 164 2 Forecast 2020 23 19 18 24 25 21 19 28 31 166 2 Forecast 2021 24 20 19 25 26 21 19 29 159 5 Forecast 2022 25 21 20 26 26 21 20 159 5 Forecast 2023 22 25 21 21 26 26 22 163 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.03 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.42 Average V&I Adj 124.2% 4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 69 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 252 3184 NORTON FITZWARREN PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 36 43 46 39 55 42 45 32 45 24 24 267 Forecast 2019 38 45 47 40 56 44 46 33 47 24 290 8 Forecast 2020 40 46 47 41 58 45 47 35 47 320 7 Forecast 2021 41 47 48 43 59 46 49 35 327 8 Forecast 2022 41 48 50 44 60 48 49 340 7 Forecast 2023 45 42 50 51 45 62 48 343 7 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.56 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.61 Average V&I Adj 68.9% -19 per year 2019 Determined AN * 45 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 289 3286 RUISHTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 28 30 29 29 29 29 28 28 26 26 27 193 Forecast 2019 28 30 29 29 30 29 28 28 27 27 198 3 Forecast 2020 28 30 29 30 30 29 28 29 28 203 3 Forecast 2021 28 30 30 30 30 29 29 30 208 3 Forecast 2022 28 31 30 30 30 30 30 209 3 Forecast 2023 29 29 31 30 30 31 31 211 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.73 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 214.8% 16 per year 2019 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 311 3189 STAPLEGROVE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 24 30 30 30 30 27 30 32 29 27 28 203 Forecast 2019 24 30 30 30 30 26 30 31 28 27 202 -3 Forecast 2020 24 30 30 30 29 26 29 30 28 202 -3 Forecast 2021 24 30 30 29 29 25 28 30 201 -3 Forecast 2022 24 30 29 29 28 24 28 192 -3 Forecast 2023 28 24 29 29 28 27 24 189 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.25 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 73.1% -11 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 318 3190 STOKE ST GREGORY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 8 10 8 10 13 11 10 16 12 15 13 90 Forecast 2019 8 10 8 10 13 11 9 16 12 15 86 -1 Forecast 2020 8 10 8 10 13 10 9 16 12 78 -1 Forecast 2021 9 11 9 11 12 10 9 16 78 2 Forecast 2022 10 12 10 10 12 10 9 73 2 Forecast 2023 10 11 13 9 10 12 10 75 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.29 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.37 Average V&I Adj 102.9% 0 per year 2019 Determined AN * 11 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 70 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 361 3436 THURLBEAR PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 27 28 29 29 30 25 31 31 31 30 29 207 Forecast 2019 28 29 29 30 30 25 31 32 31 31 210 3 Forecast 2020 29 29 30 30 30 25 31 32 32 210 2 Forecast 2021 29 30 30 30 30 26 31 33 210 3 Forecast 2022 30 30 30 30 30 26 32 208 2 Forecast 2023 30 30 30 30 31 30 27 208 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.90 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.45 Average V&I Adj 313.9% 19 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 369 3437 TRULL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 36 37 38 38 38 39 37 34 38 37 38 261 Forecast 2019 36 38 38 38 38 38 37 34 38 36 259 -2 Forecast 2020 37 38 38 38 37 38 37 34 37 259 -2 Forecast 2021 37 38 38 37 37 38 37 33 258 -2 Forecast 2022 37 38 37 37 37 38 36 260 -2 Forecast 2023 38 37 37 37 37 37 37 260 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.10 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.54 Average V&I Adj 165.6% 15 per year 2019 Determined AN * 38 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 411 3195 WEST MONKTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 59 69 58 59 61 59 60 60 58 53 55 406 Forecast 2019 60 71 59 60 61 59 60 60 58 53 411 1 Forecast 2020 62 72 60 60 61 59 60 60 58 418 1 Forecast 2021 64 73 62 62 62 60 61 61 441 9 Forecast 2022 65 75 64 63 63 61 62 453 9 Forecast 2023 63 66 76 64 63 63 61 456 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.98 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.05 Average V&I Adj 69.2% -27 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

Town Area Summary: TAUNTON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 551 552 539 569 596 537 575 587 573 570 546 3984 Forecast 2019 563 563 547 571 600 540 580 589 576 571 4027 20 Forecast 2020 574 572 549 573 603 547 581 592 576 4021 18 Forecast 2021 581 574 551 575 610 549 584 592 4035 18 Forecast 2022 583 577 553 581 612 552 585 4043 19 Forecast 2023 578 587 579 560 582 614 553 4053 17 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.49 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.18 Average V&I Adj 90.4% -58.75 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for the following primary schools: Blackbrook, Bishop Henderson, Holway Park, Halcon, Lyngford Park, Nerrols, North Town, Parkfield, Priorswood, St Andrews, St Georges, St James, Holy Trinity, Wellsprings.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 71 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 332 2330 TAUNTON BLACKBROOK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 33 33 34 34 35 36 34 35 34 34 35 243 Forecast 2019 33 34 34 34 34 36 34 35 34 34 241 -1 Forecast 2020 34 34 34 34 34 36 34 35 34 241 0 Forecast 2021 34 34 34 34 34 35 34 35 240 -1 Forecast 2022 34 34 34 34 34 35 34 239 0 Forecast 2023 34 34 34 34 33 34 35 238 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.71 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.59 Average V&I Adj 86.5% -5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 34 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 333 3439 TAUNTON BISHOP HENDERSON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 37 51 45 47 60 60 61 61 62 65 64 433 Forecast 2019 38 51 46 47 60 61 62 61 62 65 418 2 Forecast 2020 38 52 46 48 61 62 61 61 62 401 2 Forecast 2021 39 52 47 49 62 62 61 61 394 3 Forecast 2022 39 53 48 50 61 62 61 374 2 Forecast 2023 48 40 54 49 50 61 62 364 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.70 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.90 Average V&I Adj 94.2% -3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 337 2332 TAUNTON HOLWAY PARK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 40 33 32 40 62 45 40 60 41 39 40 327 Forecast 2019 42 34 33 40 62 45 40 61 41 39 328 1 Forecast 2020 43 35 33 40 63 45 41 61 41 324 2 Forecast 2021 44 35 33 41 63 46 41 61 320 2 Forecast 2022 44 35 34 41 64 46 41 305 2 Forecast 2023 42 44 36 34 42 64 46 308 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.65 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.86 Average V&I Adj 53.7% -31 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 338 2024 TAUNTON MINERVA PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 18 14 17 24 18 16 24 20 29 25 18 150 Forecast 2019 19 14 18 24 17 15 24 20 28 25 153 -3 Forecast 2020 19 15 18 24 16 15 24 19 28 144 -2 Forecast 2021 20 15 18 23 16 15 23 19 129 -2 Forecast 2022 20 15 17 23 16 14 23 128 -2 Forecast 2023 19 20 14 17 23 15 14 122 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.14 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.25 Average V&I Adj 22.6% -63 per year 2019 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 72 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 339 2229 TAUNTON LYNGFORD PARK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 48 44 39 42 43 35 39 39 43 41 37 277 Forecast 2019 50 46 40 42 41 34 40 41 44 43 285 3 Forecast 2020 52 47 40 41 41 35 41 42 45 285 3 Forecast 2021 53 47 39 41 42 36 42 43 290 3 Forecast 2022 53 47 39 42 43 36 43 303 3 Forecast 2023 46 54 47 40 43 43 37 310 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.30 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.95 Average V&I Adj 74.6% -15 per year 2019 Determined AN * 39 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 343 2216 TAUNTON NORTH TOWN PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 64 64 64 64 64 63 64 64 62 61 64 442 Forecast 2019 64 64 64 64 63 63 64 64 62 61 441 -1 Forecast 2020 64 64 64 64 63 63 64 64 62 444 0 Forecast 2021 64 64 64 64 63 63 64 64 446 0 Forecast 2022 64 64 64 64 63 63 64 446 0 Forecast 2023 64 64 64 64 64 63 63 446 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.95 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 134.0% 16 per year 2019 Determined AN * 64 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 346 2228 TAUNTON PARKFIELD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 56 56 42 54 60 57 60 62 62 62 62 425 Forecast 2019 57 57 42 54 60 57 61 62 63 62 419 2 Forecast 2020 58 57 42 55 60 58 60 63 63 401 2 Forecast 2021 58 57 43 55 61 58 60 63 397 2 Forecast 2022 58 58 43 56 61 58 60 394 2 Forecast 2023 55 59 58 44 56 61 58 391 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.58 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.56 Average V&I Adj 99.5% 0 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 347 2006 TAUNTON PRIORSWOOD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 26 22 25 24 28 19 28 20 25 26 14 160 Forecast 2019 26 22 25 24 27 18 28 19 25 25 166 -4 Forecast 2020 26 22 25 24 26 18 27 19 24 163 -3 Forecast 2021 26 22 25 23 26 17 27 18 158 -3 Forecast 2022 26 22 24 23 25 17 26 163 -3 Forecast 2023 25 26 21 24 22 25 16 159 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.72 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 48.3% -26 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 73 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 349 2002 TAUNTON ST JAMES PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 58 54 56 60 60 46 56 60 52 47 54 375 Forecast 2019 59 54 57 60 59 46 56 60 53 47 381 0 Forecast 2020 59 55 57 60 60 46 56 61 53 393 2 Forecast 2021 60 55 57 61 60 46 57 61 397 2 Forecast 2022 60 55 58 61 60 47 57 398 2 Forecast 2023 58 60 56 58 61 61 47 401 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.48 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.70 Average V&I Adj 71.7% -23 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 350 3191 TAUNTON ST ANDREWS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 33 33 34 34 34 31 34 34 33 33 32 231 Forecast 2019 33 34 34 34 34 31 34 34 32 33 232 -1 Forecast 2020 34 34 34 34 34 31 34 33 32 232 -1 Forecast 2021 34 34 34 34 34 31 33 33 233 -1 Forecast 2022 34 34 34 34 34 30 33 233 -1 Forecast 2023 34 34 34 34 34 33 30 233 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.50 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.59 Average V&I Adj 89.3% -4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 34 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 351 3438 TAUNTON ST GEORGES PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 28 28 29 29 30 29 30 31 32 33 33 218 Forecast 2019 28 29 29 30 30 28 31 31 32 33 215 1 Forecast 2020 29 29 30 30 30 29 31 31 32 213 2 Forecast 2021 29 30 30 30 31 29 31 31 212 2 Forecast 2022 30 30 30 31 31 29 31 212 2 Forecast 2023 30 30 30 31 31 31 29 212 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.44 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.09 Average V&I Adj 4.7% 29 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 355 2027 TAUNTON HOLY TRINITY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 58 55 58 59 59 59 57 54 54 53 54 390 Forecast 2019 59 56 59 59 58 59 57 54 55 53 395 0 Forecast 2020 60 58 59 59 58 59 57 55 55 402 1 Forecast 2021 60 58 59 59 58 59 58 55 406 1 Forecast 2022 60 58 59 59 58 60 58 412 1 Forecast 2023 59 60 58 60 59 59 60 415 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.29 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.03 Average V&I Adj 9.4% 58 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 74 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 357 2221 TAUNTON WELLSPRINGS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 29 39 42 34 43 41 48 47 44 51 39 313 Forecast 2019 30 40 42 34 43 40 49 47 45 51 309 1 Forecast 2020 31 40 42 34 43 41 49 48 45 302 2 Forecast 2021 31 40 42 34 44 41 50 48 299 2 Forecast 2022 31 40 42 35 44 42 50 284 2 Forecast 2023 37 31 40 43 35 45 42 273 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.71 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.84 Average V&I Adj 69.9% -16 per year 2019 Determined AN * 42 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 358 9999 TAUNTON NERROLS PRIMARY (opens 09.19)

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 23 26 22 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Forecast 2019 25 28 24 25 12 7 0 0 0 0 44 20 Forecast 2020 27 30 25 26 14 9 2 0 0 76 8 Forecast 2021 29 31 26 27 16 11 3 0 114 8 Forecast 2022 30 32 27 28 18 13 4 152 9 Forecast 2023 27 31 33 28 29 19 14 181 8 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 112.30 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 106.20 Average V&I Adj 3.9% 24 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes: This school is due to open in September 2019; on opening it will take pupils in Key Stage 1 only. As no unique catchment area has been set for this school the forecast of reception year pupils is based largely on the town area trend and may not fully reflect local demand for places.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 75 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 552 4004 WELLINGTON, COURT FIELDS Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 163 163 136 172 141 0 0 775 775 Forecast 2019 152 163 164 136 168 0 0 783 -3 783 Forecast 2020 174 152 164 164 132 0 0 786 -3 786 Forecast 2021 165 174 153 164 160 0 0 816 -3 816 Forecast 2022 162 165 175 153 160 0 0 815 -3 815 Forecast 2023 186 162 166 175 149 0 0 838 -3 838 Forecast 2024 166 185 161 166 170 0 0 849 -7 849 Forecast 2025 165 165 184 161 161 0 0 838 -7 838 Forecast 2026 192 164 164 184 156 0 0 862 -7 862 Forecast 2027 173 191 163 164 179 0 0 871 -7 871 Forecast 2028 163 172 190 163 159 0 0 848 -7 848 Forecast 2029 176 162 171 190 158 0 0 858 -7 858

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 98.7

Average transfer from primary (%): 94.7

2019 Determined AN * 172

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 76 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: WELLINGTON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 167 158 175 198 174 175 195 170 173 183 159 1229 Forecast 2019 174 166 179 201 175 176 196 170 174 182 1274 6 Forecast 2020 181 168 181 203 176 177 196 171 173 1277 6 Forecast 2021 183 170 182 204 177 177 196 170 1276 4 Forecast 2022 185 172 183 205 177 178 195 1295 6 Forecast 2023 182 186 173 184 205 177 177 1284 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.27 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.23 Average V&I Adj 86.4% -27.5 per year Note: see note at the end of the Wellington area forecasts

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 211 3181 LANGFORD BUDVILLE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 68844849687 46 Forecast 2019 6 8 8 4 3 8 5 9 6 7 42 -1 Forecast 2020 6 8 8 4 3 9 5 9 5 43 0 Forecast 2021 6 8 7 4 4 9 5 8 45 -1 Forecast 2022 6 8 7 5 4 9 4 43 0 Forecast 2023 6 5 8 8 5 4 8 44 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.40 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 86.7% -1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes: see note at the end of the Wellington area forecasts

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 284 3186 ROCKWELL GREEN PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 20 21 25 26 25 29 30 24 30 30 29 197 Forecast 2019 22 23 27 27 27 30 30 24 31 30 199 5 Forecast 2020 23 23 27 27 26 30 30 24 31 195 -1 Forecast 2021 23 24 27 26 26 30 30 24 187 0 Forecast 2022 23 24 26 26 26 30 30 185 -1 Forecast 2023 25 23 23 26 26 26 30 179 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.86 Average V&I Adj 71.3% -9 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes: see note at the end of the Wellington area forecasts

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 291 2211 SAMPFORD ARUNDEL PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 6 5 5 10 6 7 9 5 8 6 5 46 Forecast 2019 6 5 5 10 5 7 8 4 8 6 48 -3 Forecast 2020 6 5 5 10 5 6 7 4 8 45 -2 Forecast 2021 6 5 5 10 4 5 7 4 40 -2 Forecast 2022 6 5 5 9 3 5 7 40 -2 Forecast 2023 6 6 5 4 8 3 5 37 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 94.18 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 288.9% 4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes: see note at the end of the Wellington area forecasts

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 77 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 405 2226 WEST BUCKLAND PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 11 8 10 12 18 11 12 12 11 21 6 91 Forecast 2019 11 8 10 12 18 10 11 12 10 20 93 -4 Forecast 2020 11 8 11 12 18 9 11 12 9 82 -1 Forecast 2021 11 8 11 12 17 9 10 11 78 -3 Forecast 2022 12 8 11 11 17 9 9 77 -1 Forecast 2023 12 12 8 10 11 16 8 77 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.17 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.00 Average V&I Adj 146.4% 3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes: see note at the end of the Wellington area forecasts

Forecast Base Year: 2018

Town Area Summary: WELLINGTON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 124 116 127 146 121 120 140 120 118 118 112 849 Forecast 2019 129 122 129 148 122 121 142 121 119 119 892 9 Forecast 2020 135 124 130 150 124 123 143 122 120 912 10 Forecast 2021 137 125 132 152 126 124 144 123 926 10 Forecast 2022 138 127 134 154 127 125 145 950 10 Forecast 2023 133 140 129 136 155 128 126 947 10 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.10 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.17 Average V&I Adj 83.8% -24.75 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Beech Grove, St Johns, Wellesley Park Primary and the new primary school at Longforth Farm. See note at the end of the Wellington area forecasts.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 390 2224 WELLINGTON BEECH GROVE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 42 40 40 41 42 43 56 46 42 47 41 317 Forecast 2019 44 42 40 42 43 43 58 47 42 48 323 6 Forecast 2020 46 42 40 43 44 45 59 47 43 321 6 Forecast 2021 46 42 40 44 46 46 59 48 325 5 Forecast 2022 46 42 40 46 47 46 60 327 4 Forecast 2023 43 46 42 40 47 47 47 312 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.60 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.65 Average V&I Adj 52.6% -37 per year 2019 Determined AN * 42 Notes: see note at the end of the Wellington area forecasts

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 392 5201 WELLINGTON ST JOHN'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 25 24 24 54 27 26 27 27 27 25 23 182 Forecast 2019 25 25 24 54 27 26 28 27 27 26 215 2 Forecast 2020 26 25 24 54 27 27 28 27 28 215 2 Forecast 2021 26 25 24 54 28 27 28 28 214 2 Forecast 2022 26 25 24 55 28 27 29 214 2 Forecast 2023 25 26 25 25 55 28 28 212 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.10 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.72 Average V&I Adj 55.9% -25 per year 2019 Determined AN * 25 Notes: see note at the end of the Wellington area forecasts

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 78 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 393 2005 WELLINGTON WELLESLEY PARK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 43 40 45 51 52 51 57 47 49 46 48 350 Forecast 2019 43 40 45 52 52 52 56 47 50 45 354 1 Forecast 2020 43 40 45 53 53 51 56 48 49 355 1 Forecast 2021 43 40 45 54 52 51 57 47 346 0 Forecast 2022 43 40 45 53 52 52 56 341 -1 Forecast 2023 45 43 40 44 53 53 51 329 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.93 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.23 Average V&I Adj 238.7% 26 per year 2019 Determined AN * 56 Notes: see note at the end of the Wellington area forecasts

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 394 9999 WELLINGTON new school @ LONGFORTH FARM (to open 09.20)

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 14 12 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Forecast 2019 17 15 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Forecast 2020 20 17 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 1 Forecast 2021 22 18 23 0 0 0 0 0 41 3 Forecast 2022 23 20 25 0 0 0 0 68 5 Forecast 2023 21 25 22 27 0 0 0 95 12 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 109.23 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 111.61 Average V&I Adj 7.2% 11 per year 2019 Determined AN * n/a Notes: see below

WELLINGTON new school @ LONGFORTH FARM (to open 09.20) A new primary age free school is planned as part of the Longforth Farm development and is now expected to open in September 2020. The above data shows the forecast roll for that school assuming that opening goes ahead as planned. Any further delay in the opening of the school would have a knock on impact on other schools. In the absence of a unique catchment area for the new school the forecast of reception year pupils is based largely on the town area trend and not reflect the local demand for places.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 79 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 556 4504 WELLS, THE BLUE Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 235 270 259 269 261 104 121 1519 1294 Forecast 2019 276 240 273 262 268 146 88 1553 10 1319 Forecast 2020 268 281 243 276 261 150 124 1603 10 1329 Forecast 2021 265 273 284 246 275 146 127 1616 10 1343 Forecast 2022 241 267 275 286 245 154 124 1592 5 1315 Forecast 2023 259 243 269 277 285 137 130 1601 5 1334 Forecast 2024 244 261 245 271 276 159 116 1574 5 1299 Forecast 2025 262 247 263 247 270 155 135 1580 6 1291 Forecast 2026 257 265 249 265 246 151 131 1565 6 1283 Forecast 2027 252 260 267 251 264 138 128 1561 6 1295 Forecast 2028 267 255 262 269 250 148 117 1569 6 1304 Forecast 2029 246 270 257 264 268 140 125 1571 6 1306

16+ Forecast 56.0% 17+ Forecast 84.5%

Secondary Migration: 101.7

Average transfer from primary (%): 108.3

2019 Determined AN * 270

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 80 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: WELLS

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 154 181 181 189 204 189 213 202 228 234 246 1516 Forecast 2019 161 188 187 197 207 195 218 202 231 238 1488 29 Forecast 2020 169 195 196 202 214 204 219 207 236 1478 41 Forecast 2021 178 204 200 208 223 205 224 212 1476 39 Forecast 2022 187 211 206 217 224 210 229 1484 42 Forecast 2023 197 194 218 215 219 229 215 1487 35 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.40 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.43 Average V&I Adj 97.8% -4 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 99 3305 CHEWTON MENDIP PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 13 17 14 11 17 21 17 15 24 24 29 147 Forecast 2019 14 17 15 12 17 22 18 15 25 24 133 4 Forecast 2020 14 18 16 12 18 23 18 16 25 128 4 Forecast 2021 15 19 16 13 19 23 19 16 125 4 Forecast 2022 15 20 17 14 19 24 19 128 4 Forecast 2023 16 15 21 18 14 20 24 128 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.92 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.73 Average V&I Adj 127.9% 3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 20 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 102 3492 , ST VIGOR & ST JOHN PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 24 29 27 30 30 29 30 33 32 30 33 217 Forecast 2019 25 29 28 30 31 29 31 33 32 31 217 3 Forecast 2020 25 29 29 30 31 30 31 33 33 217 3 Forecast 2021 26 30 29 30 32 30 31 34 216 3 Forecast 2022 27 30 29 31 32 30 32 211 3 Forecast 2023 29 28 30 30 32 32 31 212 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.42 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.21 Average V&I Adj 91.7% -3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 116 2019 COXLEY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 3 5 5 7 10 3 8 4 8 10 8 51 Forecast 2019 4 5 6 8 10 4 8 4 8 11 53 3 Forecast 2020 4 6 7 8 10 4 9 4 9 51 3 Forecast 2021 5 6 7 8 10 5 9 5 50 2 Forecast 2022 6 6 7 8 11 5 10 53 3 Forecast 2023 7 6 6 7 9 11 6 52 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 104.65 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 114.00 Average V&I Adj 51.3% -5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 81 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 186 2032 HORRINGTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 14 17 14 14 15 16 15 18 17 23 12 116 Forecast 2019 14 18 14 14 15 16 15 18 17 23 118 0 Forecast 2020 15 18 15 14 15 17 15 18 17 111 2 Forecast 2021 15 19 15 14 16 17 15 18 114 2 Forecast 2022 16 19 15 15 16 17 15 113 2 Forecast 2023 16 17 19 16 15 16 17 116 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.03 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.27 Average V&I Adj 184.4% 7 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 278 2057 PRIDDY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 2 5 5 5 5 7 4 2 11 5 6 40 Forecast 2019 2 5 5 5 5 7 4 1 11 5 38 -1 Forecast 2020 2 5 5 6 5 7 3 1 11 38 0 Forecast 2021 3 5 5 6 5 6 3 1 31 -1 Forecast 2022 3 6 5 6 4 6 3 33 0 Forecast 2023 4 4 6 5 5 4 6 34 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.70 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.56 Average V&I Adj 77.3% -1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 406 3119 WESTBURY SUB MENDIP ST LAWRENCE'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 3 4 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 14 7 47 Forecast 2019 3 5 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 14 44 -1 Forecast 2020 4 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 36 0 Forecast 2021 4 5 6 5 5 4 4 5 34 -1 Forecast 2022 4 6 6 5 5 3 4 33 0 Forecast 2023 5 4 6 6 5 4 3 33 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.10 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.44 Average V&I Adj 48.6% -5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 423 2085 WOOKEY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 8 14 12 9 12 16 13 9 13 17 16 96 Forecast 2019 8 14 12 9 12 16 13 9 13 17 89 0 Forecast 2020 9 15 12 10 12 17 13 9 13 86 2 Forecast 2021 10 16 13 10 13 17 13 9 91 3 Forecast 2022 11 17 13 11 13 17 13 95 3 Forecast 2023 12 12 18 14 11 13 17 97 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.31 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.50 Average V&I Adj 75.4% -4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 82 Forecast Base Year: 2018

Town Area Summary: WELLS

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 87 90 98 108 111 93 121 115 116 111 135 802 Forecast 2019 91 95 101 114 113 97 124 116 119 113 796 21 Forecast 2020 96 99 106 117 118 102 125 121 122 811 27 Forecast 2021 100 104 109 122 123 103 130 124 815 27 Forecast 2022 105 107 114 127 124 108 133 818 27 Forecast 2023 107 108 112 119 128 129 111 814 22 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.02 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.77 Average V&I Adj 103.2% 3 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for the following schools: St Cuthberts Infants, St Cuthberts Junior, St Joseph & St Teresa and Stoberry Park Primary

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 395 3115 WELLS ST CUTHBERT'S INFANTS Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 40 42 46 51 43 40 56 139 Forecast 2019 42 44 47 54 43 42 139 5 Forecast 2020 44 46 50 55 45 150 6 Forecast 2021 46 49 51 57 157 6 Forecast 2022 49 50 53 152 6 Forecast 2023 49 50 52 151 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.89 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 105.13 Average V&I Adj 72.8% -17 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 396 3114 WELLS ST CUTHBERT'S JUNIOR Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 38 47 42 64 191 Forecast 2019 57 38 49 43 187 4 Forecast 2020 44 57 40 50 191 5 Forecast 2021 47 44 59 41 191 5 Forecast 2022 59 47 46 60 212 5 Forecast 2023 55 59 49 47 210 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.10 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 103.56 Average V&I Adj N/A 2019 Determined AN * 45 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 397 3361 WELLS ST JOSEPH & ST THERESA PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 19 20 21 21 22 17 22 25 23 23 22 154 Forecast 2019 20 21 21 22 22 17 22 25 24 23 155 2 Forecast 2020 21 21 21 22 23 18 22 26 25 157 4 Forecast 2021 21 21 21 23 24 18 23 27 157 4 Forecast 2022 21 21 22 24 24 19 24 155 4 Forecast 2023 21 21 22 23 24 25 20 156 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.59 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.94 Average V&I Adj 21.8% 20 per year 2019 Determined AN * 22 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 83 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 400 2333 WELLS STOBERRY PARK PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 28 28 31 36 46 36 43 52 46 46 49 318 Forecast 2019 29 30 33 38 48 38 45 53 46 47 315 10 Forecast 2020 31 32 35 40 50 40 46 55 47 313 12 Forecast 2021 33 34 37 42 52 41 48 56 310 12 Forecast 2022 35 36 39 44 53 43 49 299 12 Forecast 2023 37 37 38 41 45 55 44 297 10 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.67 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 106.11 Average V&I Adj 98.4% -1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 44 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 84 Upper School (13-18) Catchment Analysis Forecast Base Year: 2018

MINEHEAD, WEST SOMERSET COLLEGE

Secondary Forecast: 539 4291 Total Net Total Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Pupils Year 9 10 11 12 13+ 9-13) (Yrs 9-11) (Yrs 9-11) Baseline 2018 201 189 200 63 53 706 590 Forecast 2019 202 200 180 66 46 694 -10 582 Forecast 2020 188 202 191 59 48 689 -9 582 Forecast 2021 205 187 193 63 43 692 -10 586 Forecast 2022 235 205 178 64 46 728 -9 618 Forecast 2023 215 234 196 59 46 750 -10 645 Forecast 2024 233 215 225 65 43 781 -9 673 Forecast 2025 249 232 206 74 47 809 -10 687 Forecast 2026 211 249 223 68 54 805 -9 683 Forecast 2027 252 210 240 74 49 825 -10 702 Forecast 2028 191 252 201 79 53 777 -9 644 Forecast 2029 222 190 243 66 57 778 -10 655

16+ Forecast 33.00% 17+ Forecast 72.50%

Upper School Migration: 95.2

Average transfer from middle (%): 95.5

2019 Determined AN * 356

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Middle School (9-12) Catchment Summary Forecast Base Year: 2018

Total Pupils Net Middle aged pupils: Catchment Summary (Yrs 5-8) Migration Pupils by NCY Year 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2018 253 219 200 212 884 Forecast 2019 233 249 218 197 897 -8 Forecast 2020 251 229 249 215 944 -7 Forecast 2021 269 247 228 246 990 -8 Forecast 2022 228 265 247 225 965 -7 Forecast 2023 272 224 264 244 1004 -8 Forecast 2024 207 268 224 261 960 -7 Forecast 2025 240 203 267 221 931 -8 Forecast 2026 238 236 203 264 941 -7 Forecast 2027 220 234 235 200 889 -8 Forecast 2028 216 234 232 Forecast 2029 215 231

Notes: The above data shows a summary of the pupils in years 5-8 in the Minehead/Williton planning area.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 85 Middle School (9-12) Catchment Analysis Forecast Base Year: 2018

MINEHEAD MIDDLE

Middle Forecast: 496 4290 (Yrs 5-8) Migration Pupils by NCY Year 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2018 162 146 123 135 566 Forecast 2019 154 159 148 121 582 -3 Forecast 2020 163 151 161 146 621 -3 Forecast 2021 162 160 153 159 634 -3 Forecast 2022 146 159 162 151 618 -3 Forecast 2023 188 143 161 160 652 -3 Forecast 2024 134 185 145 159 623 -3 Forecast 2025 168 131 187 143 628 -3 Forecast 2026 156 165 133 185 639 -3 Forecast 2027 152 153 167 131 603 -3 Forecast 2028 149 155 165 Forecast 2029 151 153

Middle Migration: 99.0

Average transfer from primary (%): 101.3

2019 Determined AN * 169

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

WILLITON, DANESFIELD MIDDLE

Total Pupils Net Middle Forecast: 499 4553 (Yrs 5-8) Migration Pupils by NCY Year 5 6 7 8 Baseline 2018 91 73 77 77 318 Forecast 2019 79 90 70 76 315 -5 Forecast 2020 88 78 88 69 324 -4 Forecast 2021 107 87 75 87 356 -5 Forecast 2022 82 106 85 74 348 -4 Forecast 2023 83 81 103 84 352 -5 Forecast 2024 74 82 79 102 337 -4 Forecast 2025 73 73 79 78 303 -5 Forecast 2026 82 72 71 78 302 -4 Forecast 2027 67 81 69 70 286 -5 Forecast 2028 66 79 68 Forecast 2029 63 78

Middle Migration: 98.5

Average transfer from primary (%): 98.0

2019 Determined AN * 123

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 86 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: MINEHEAD

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 138 145 158 126 181 141 159 160 152 793 Forecast 2019 139 148 158 129 182 144 158 161 774 4 Forecast 2020 142 148 161 129 185 143 160 778 4 Forecast 2021 143 151 162 132 184 144 773 4 Forecast 2022 146 151 165 131 186 779 4 Forecast 2023 152 147 154 164 132 749 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.65 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.38 Average V&I Adj 102.3% 3.25 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 130 3314 CUTCOMBE FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 5 8 7 6 7 5 9 4 8 33 Forecast 2019 5 8 7 6 7 5 9 4 31 0 Forecast 2020 5 8 7 6 7 5 9 34 0 Forecast 2021 5 8 7 6 7 5 33 0 Forecast 2022 5 8 7 6 7 33 0 Forecast 2023 7 5 8 7 6 33 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 173.3% 3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 140 2022 FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 26 28 29 29 30 29 27 31 30 147 Forecast 2019 27 29 29 30 30 30 27 31 148 2 Forecast 2020 28 29 30 30 31 30 27 148 2 Forecast 2021 29 30 30 31 31 30 152 2 Forecast 2022 30 30 31 31 31 153 2 Forecast 2023 30 30 31 31 31 153 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.83 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.83 Average V&I Adj 196.5% 14 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 150 3048 EXFORD FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 3 4 3 7 7 4 7 3 5 26 Forecast 2019 3 4 3 7 7 5 7 3 29 1 Forecast 2020 3 4 3 7 8 5 7 30 1 Forecast 2021 3 4 3 8 8 5 28 1 Forecast 2022 3 4 4 8 8 27 1 Forecast 2023 4 3 5 4 8 24 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 104.46 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 89.5% -1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 87 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 276 3344 PORLOCK ST DUBRICIUS FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 14 11 12 8 15 10 13 18 18 74 Forecast 2019 14 11 12 8 15 10 12 18 63 -1 Forecast 2020 14 11 12 8 15 9 12 56 -1 Forecast 2021 14 11 12 8 14 9 54 -1 Forecast 2022 14 11 12 7 14 58 -1 Forecast 2023 12 14 11 11 7 55 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.86 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 125.0% 2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 18 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 363 3359 TIMBERSCOMBE FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 8 5 7 6 10 2 8 8 7 35 Forecast 2019 8 5 7 6 10 2 8 8 34 0 Forecast 2020 8 5 7 6 10 2 8 33 0 Forecast 2021 8 5 7 6 10 2 30 0 Forecast 2022 8 5 7 6 10 36 0 Forecast 2023 7 8 5 7 6 33 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 130.0% 2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

Town Area Summary: MINEHEAD

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 82 89 100 70 112 91 95 96 84 478 Forecast 2019 82 91 100 72 113 92 95 97 469 3 Forecast 2020 84 91 102 72 114 92 97 477 3 Forecast 2021 84 93 103 73 114 93 476 3 Forecast 2022 86 93 104 73 116 472 3 Forecast 2023 92 87 94 104 74 451 3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.80 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.37 Average V&I Adj 83.8% -17 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for St Michaels and Minehead County First schools.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 235 2023 MINEHEAD, ST MICHAEL'S FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 30 30 30 29 30 30 31 32 26 149 Forecast 2019 30 30 30 29 30 30 31 33 153 1 Forecast 2020 30 30 30 29 30 30 32 151 1 Forecast 2021 30 30 30 29 30 31 150 1 Forecast 2022 30 30 30 29 31 150 1 Forecast 2023 30 30 30 30 30 150 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.83 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 85.0% -5 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 88 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 236 2048 MINEHEAD FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 52 59 70 41 82 61 64 64 58 329 Forecast 2019 52 61 70 43 83 62 64 64 316 4 Forecast 2020 54 61 72 43 84 62 65 326 4 Forecast 2021 54 63 73 44 84 62 326 4 Forecast 2022 56 63 74 44 85 322 4 Forecast 2023 62 57 64 74 44 301 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.78 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.09 Average V&I Adj 83.1% -11 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 89 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: WILLITON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 64 80 72 73 86 85 111 90 81 453 Forecast 2019 65 82 72 75 87 85 109 90 446 -1 Forecast 2020 67 82 74 76 87 84 109 430 0 Forecast 2021 67 84 75 76 85 84 404 -1 Forecast 2022 69 85 75 75 85 389 0 Forecast 2023 77 70 85 74 75 381 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.88 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.80 Average V&I Adj 86.0% -12 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 265 3086 OLD CLEEVE FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 17 20 21 23 25 21 31 24 23 124 Forecast 2019 18 21 21 24 25 21 30 24 124 0 Forecast 2020 19 21 22 24 25 21 30 122 1 Forecast 2021 19 22 22 24 24 21 113 0 Forecast 2022 20 22 22 24 24 112 1 Forecast 2023 22 20 22 21 24 109 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.37 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.50 Average V&I Adj 150.0% 7 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 382 3490 KNIGHTS TEMPLAR FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 25 41 30 34 38 41 44 45 31 199 Forecast 2019 25 41 30 34 38 41 43 45 201 -1 Forecast 2020 25 41 31 34 38 41 43 187 1 Forecast 2021 25 41 31 34 37 41 184 -1 Forecast 2022 26 41 31 34 37 169 1 Forecast 2023 34 26 41 31 34 166 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.73 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.63 Average V&I Adj 92.2% -3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 416 3123 WILLITON ST PETER'S FIRST Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 22 19 21 16 23 23 36 21 27 130 Forecast 2019 22 20 21 17 24 23 36 21 121 2 Forecast 2020 23 20 21 18 24 22 36 121 0 Forecast 2021 23 21 22 18 24 22 107 2 Forecast 2022 23 22 22 17 24 108 0 Forecast 2023 21 24 22 22 17 106 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.66 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.93 Average V&I Adj 55.3% -16 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 90 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 588 4273 WINCANTON, KING ARTHUR'S Total Net Total Pupils Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration (Yrs 7-11) Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 72 57 59 62 94 0 0 344 344 Forecast 2019 85 69 55 57 61 0 0 327 -8 327 Forecast 2020 88 82 67 53 56 0 0 346 -8 346 Forecast 2021 86 85 80 65 52 0 0 368 -8 368 Forecast 2022 92 83 83 78 64 0 0 400 -8 400 Forecast 2023 86 89 81 81 77 0 0 414 -8 414 Forecast 2024 80 83 87 79 80 0 0 409 -8 409 Forecast 2025 76 77 81 85 78 0 0 397 -8 397 Forecast 2026 63 73 75 79 84 0 0 373 -8 373 Forecast 2027 71 60 71 73 78 0 0 353 -8 353 Forecast 2028 73 68 58 69 72 0 0 340 -8 340 Forecast 2029 70 70 66 56 68 0 0 330 -8 330

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 98.0

Average transfer from primary (%): 41.1

2019 Determined AN * 136

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 593 5400 SEXEYS SCHOOL, BRUTON Total Net Total Pupils Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration (Yrs 7-11) Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 120 108 112 87 71 48 61 607 498 Forecast 2019 81 123 113 107 84 57 38 603 0 508 Forecast 2020 85 84 128 108 104 48 46 603 0 509 Forecast 2021 103 88 89 123 105 54 39 600 0 508 Forecast 2022 106 106 93 84 120 54 43 606 0 508 Forecast 2023 103 110 112 88 81 61 43 598 2 493 Forecast 2024 86 107 116 107 85 56 49 605 2 500 Forecast 2025 87 90 113 111 104 54 45 604 2 505 Forecast 2026 94 91 96 108 108 56 43 596 2 497 Forecast 2027 98 98 97 91 105 63 45 597 2 489 Forecast 2028 101 102 104 92 88 59 50 596 2 487 Forecast 2029 97 105 108 99 89 53 47 598 2 498

16+ Forecast 20.0% 17+ Forecast 80.0%

Secondary Migration: 100.3

Average transfer from primary (%): 49.6

2019 Determined AN * 81 (56 boarding, 25 day pupils)

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes: The above figures include boarding and day pupils The forecast of Year 12 is calculated from the combined year 11 roll of Ansford, Sexeys and King Arthurs schools

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 91 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: WINCANTON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 157 169 166 147 177 176 189 202 194 192 180 1310 Forecast 2019 161 172 170 148 176 175 188 203 190 189 1269 -8 Forecast 2020 166 176 171 148 175 176 189 201 188 1248 -2 Forecast 2021 171 177 171 150 178 178 189 199 1242 6 Forecast 2022 172 176 172 150 180 178 187 1215 1 Forecast 2023 171 170 174 170 152 177 175 1189 -10 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.68 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.75 Average V&I Adj 79.9% -40.25 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 70 5200 BRUTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): FO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 23 19 27 20 32 31 28 36 32 34 43 236 Forecast 2019 25 20 28 21 32 30 28 38 32 35 216 3 Forecast 2020 26 20 28 22 32 30 30 39 34 215 6 Forecast 2021 27 20 29 22 32 32 31 41 207 6 Forecast 2022 28 21 29 22 34 33 33 200 7 Forecast 2023 25 28 20 29 24 34 34 194 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.48 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.40 Average V&I Adj 84.0% -4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 42 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 93 5202 CHARLTON HORETHORNE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 6 8 3 4 5 7108 8118 57 Forecast 2019 6 8 4 4 5 7108 810 52 -1 Forecast 2020 6 8 44571087 45 -1 Forecast 2021 6 8 3 4 5 7107 44 -2 Forecast 2022 6 8 3 4 5 7 9 42 -1 Forecast 2023 6 6 8 3 4 5 6 38 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.98 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.69 Average V&I Adj 161.5% 2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 178 3061 HENSTRIDGE ST NICHOLAS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 13 9 13 10 16 10 14 14 15 17 15 101 Forecast 2019 13 9 13 10 16 10 14 13 14 17 94 -2 Forecast 2020 13 10 13 10 16 10 13 12 14 88 -2 Forecast 2021 14 11 15 10 17 9 12 12 86 2 Forecast 2022 14 11 15 10 16 8 12 86 -2 Forecast 2023 13 14 11 15 9 15 8 85 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.18 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.56 Average V&I Adj 62.5% -7 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 92 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 188 3065 HORSINGTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 12 13 10 9 12 7 14 16 15 15 16 95 Forecast 2019 12 13 10 9 12 7 13 15 14 15 85 -3 Forecast 2020 13 13 10 9 11 7 12 14 14 77 -3 Forecast 2021 13 13 9 9 11 6 11 14 73 -3 Forecast 2022 13 13 9 9 10 5 11 70 -2 Forecast 2023 12 13 13 8 9 9 5 69 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.06 0 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.85 Average V&I Adj 338.5% 8 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 229 2047 MILBORNE PORT PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 22 24 21 22 21 27 26 25 27 26 24 176 Forecast 2019 23 24 21 22 21 28 26 25 26 26 174 0 Forecast 2020 24 25 22 22 22 29 26 25 26 172 3 Forecast 2021 25 25 22 23 23 29 26 25 173 2 Forecast 2022 25 24 22 22 23 29 26 171 -2 Forecast 2023 24 24 24 21 22 23 29 167 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.00 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.16 Average V&I Adj 69.5% -10 per year 2019 Determined AN * 25 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 359 3105 ABBAS & TEMPLECOMBE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 11 17 18 15 10 20 21 19 14 17 18 119 Forecast 2019 11 18 18 15 10 19 21 19 13 17 114 -2 Forecast 2020 12 18 18 15 9 19 21 18 13 113 -2 Forecast 2021 12 18 18 14 9 19 20 18 116 -2 Forecast 2022 12 18 17 14 9 18 20 108 -2 Forecast 2023 15 12 17 17 14 8 18 101 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.93 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.33 Average V&I Adj 88.4% -2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

Town Area Summary: WINCANTON

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 70 79 74 67 81 74 76 84 83 72 56 526 Forecast 2019 71 80 76 67 80 74 76 85 83 69 534 -3 Forecast 2020 72 82 76 66 80 74 77 85 80 538 -3 Forecast 2021 74 82 75 68 81 76 79 82 543 3 Forecast 2022 74 81 77 69 83 78 76 538 3 Forecast 2023 77 73 81 77 70 83 75 536 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.87 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.21 Average V&I Adj 72.7% -27.25 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for Wincanton County Primary and Our Lady's Primary schools.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 93 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 417 3488 WINCANTON OUR LADY'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 22 23 22 21 24 23 19 25 23 19 14 147 Forecast 2019 22 23 22 21 24 23 19 26 23 18 154 0 Forecast 2020 22 23 22 21 24 23 20 26 22 158 0 Forecast 2021 22 23 22 22 24 24 21 25 161 2 Forecast 2022 22 23 23 22 25 25 20 160 2 Forecast 2023 22 22 23 23 23 25 24 162 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.59 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 22.1% 22 per year 2019 Determined AN * 20 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 418 2081 WINCANTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 48 56 52 46 57 51 57 59 60 53 42 379 Forecast 2019 49 57 54 46 56 51 57 59 60 51 380 -3 Forecast 2020 50 59 54 45 56 51 57 59 58 380 -3 Forecast 2021 52 59 53 46 57 52 58 57 382 1 Forecast 2022 52 58 54 47 58 53 56 378 1 Forecast 2023 54 51 58 54 47 58 51 373 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.57 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.72 Average V&I Adj 50.6% -49 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 94 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 562 4355 WIVELISCOMBE, KINGSMEAD Total Net Pupils by NCY Pupils (Yrs Migration Total Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 187 192 173 172 181 0 0 905 905 Forecast 2019 170 191 194 170 172 0 0 897 3 897 Forecast 2020 178 174 193 191 170 0 0 906 3 906 Forecast 2021 173 182 176 190 191 0 0 912 3 912 Forecast 2022 178 177 184 173 190 0 0 902 3 902 Forecast 2023 181 182 179 181 173 0 0 896 3 896 Forecast 2024 143 185 184 176 181 0 0 869 3 869 Forecast 2025 153 147 187 181 176 0 0 844 3 844 Forecast 2026 129 157 149 184 181 0 0 800 3 800 Forecast 2027 129 133 159 146 184 0 0 750 3 750 Forecast 2028 108 133 135 156 146 0 0 678 3 678 Forecast 2029 133 112 135 132 156 0 0 668 3 668

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 100.8

Average transfer from primary (%): 90.3

2019 Determined AN * 195

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes: Transfer from primary calcuation includes pupils attending Dulverton Infant/Junior

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 95 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: WIVELISCOMBE

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 129 103 132 136 171 160 203 200 196 202 189 1321 Forecast 2019 131 110 135 139 174 159 203 202 195 198 1270 2 Forecast 2020 138 115 138 144 173 160 206 200 192 1213 6 Forecast 2021 144 118 144 143 172 163 204 198 1142 6 Forecast 2022 146 122 144 143 174 161 201 1091 3 Forecast 2023 139 150 121 144 146 172 157 1029 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.12 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.22 Average V&I Adj 96.7% -4.25 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 35 2018 BISHOPS LYDEARD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 12 12 19 20 27 17 22 25 29 23 24 167 Forecast 2019 12 14 20 21 27 18 22 26 29 22 165 2 Forecast 2020 14 15 21 21 28 18 23 26 28 165 2 Forecast 2021 15 15 21 22 28 19 23 26 154 2 Forecast 2022 16 15 22 22 29 19 23 146 3 Forecast 2023 19 17 16 22 23 29 18 144 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.19 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 106.54 Average V&I Adj 63.0% -9 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 115 2334 COTFORD ST LUKE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 24 17 31 32 30 30 49 45 38 38 28 258 Forecast 2019 24 18 31 32 30 30 49 45 38 37 261 -1 Forecast 2020 26 20 32 34 30 30 50 45 38 259 4 Forecast 2021 28 21 34 34 30 31 50 45 245 4 Forecast 2022 28 21 34 34 30 31 49 227 -1 Forecast 2023 27 28 21 34 34 30 30 204 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.28 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.59 Average V&I Adj 86.0% -4 per year 2019 Determined AN * 42 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 125 3313 CROWCOMBE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 3 2 4 2 2 4 8 11 6 8 6 45 Forecast 2019 32 4 22481158 40 -1 Forecast 2020 3 2 4 2 2 4 8 10 5 35 -1 Forecast 2021 3 2 4 2 2 4 7 10 31 -1 Forecast 2022 3 2 4 2 2 3 7 23 -1 Forecast 2023 3 3 2 4 2 1 3 18 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.38 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 183.3% 1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 96 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 139 3042 DULVERTON ALL SAINTS INFANTS Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 9 10 9 13 14 15 16 45 Forecast 2019 9 10 9 13 14 15 42 0 Forecast 2020 9 10 9 13 13 35 -1 Forecast 2021 9 10 9 12 31 -1 Forecast 2022 9 10 8 27 -1 Forecast 2023 11 9 9 29 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 96.55 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 80.4% -3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes: Data excludes the nursery class provision

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 487 4277 DULVERTON JUNIOR Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 14 16 29 22 81 Forecast 2019 16 14 16 29 75 0 Forecast 2020 15 16 13 16 60 -1 Forecast 2021 13 15 15 13 56 -1 Forecast 2022 12 13 14 15 54 -1 Forecast 2023 8 12 12 14 46 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.27 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj N/A 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 218 2205 LYDEARD ST LAWRENCE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 12 6 5 9 15 10 15 13 13 15 13 94 Forecast 2019 12 6 5 9 15 10 15 13 13 14 89 -1 Forecast 2020 12 6 5 9 15 10 15 13 13 80 0 Forecast 2021 12 6 5 9 15 10 15 12 72 -1 Forecast 2022 12 6 5 9 15 10 15 72 0 Forecast 2023 9 12 6 5 9 15 9 65 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.12 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 160.0% 3 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 233 2206 MILVERTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 24 19 20 18 24 25 29 35 31 28 31 203 Forecast 2019 25 21 20 20 25 25 30 36 30 27 193 3 Forecast 2020 26 21 21 21 25 26 31 36 29 189 3 Forecast 2021 26 22 22 21 26 27 30 35 183 2 Forecast 2022 26 23 22 22 27 27 29 176 2 Forecast 2023 23 27 24 23 23 26 26 172 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.01 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.64 Average V&I Adj 218.9% 11 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes: BI Children's Team (March 2019) 97 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 264 3290 OAKE, BRADFORD & NYNEHEAD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 6 7 14 11 14 17 17 11 18 16 15 108 Forecast 2019 6 7 14 11 14 16 17 11 18 15 102 -2 Forecast 2020 6 7 14 11 13 16 17 11 17 99 -2 Forecast 2021 7 8 15 11 12 16 17 10 89 0 Forecast 2022 8 9 15 10 12 16 16 86 0 Forecast 2023 10 8 8 15 10 12 15 78 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.05 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.53 Average V&I Adj 100.0% 0 per year 2019 Determined AN * 17 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 313 2212 STAWLEY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 6 5 4 5 7 9 11 8 4 7 10 56 Forecast 2019 6 5 4 5 7 9 11 8 4 7 51 0 Forecast 2020 6 5 4 5 7 9 11 7 4 47 -1 Forecast 2021 6 5 4 5 7 9 11 7 48 0 Forecast 2022 6 5 4 5 7 8 11 46 -1 Forecast 2023 5 6 5 4 5 7 8 40 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.04 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 142.9% 2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 8 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 315 3101 STOGUMBER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 87546778777 49 Forecast 2019 8 7 5 4 7 7 7 8 7 7 47 1 Forecast 2020 8 7 5 5 7 8 7 8 7 47 2 Forecast 2021 8 7 6 5 7 8 7 8 48 1 Forecast 2022 8 8 6 6 7 8 7 50 2 Forecast 2023 6 9 8 6 6 7 8 50 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.41 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 126.3% 1 per year 2019 Determined AN * 7 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 422 2227 WIVELISCOMBE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 25 18 21 22 32 26 29 30 34 31 33 215 Forecast 2019 26 20 23 22 33 25 28 30 35 32 205 1 Forecast 2020 28 22 23 23 33 24 28 31 35 197 1 Forecast 2021 30 22 24 22 32 24 29 32 185 1 Forecast 2022 30 23 24 21 32 25 29 184 1 Forecast 2023 26 31 22 23 22 33 26 183 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.2 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.8 Average V&I Adj 77.5% -6 per year 2019 Determined AN * 34 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 98 Secondary School (11-18) Catchment Analysis Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: YEOVIL SECONDARY SUMMARY Total Net Total Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration Pupils Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7-13) (Yrs 7-11) (Yrs 7-11) Baseline 2018 540 535 539 474 501 0 0 2589 2589 Forecast 2019 571 542 532 533 470 0 0 2648 -11 2648 Forecast 2020 552 573 539 526 529 0 0 2719 -11 2719 Forecast 2021 590 554 570 533 522 0 0 2769 -11 2769 Forecast 2022 574 592 551 564 529 0 0 2810 -11 2810 Forecast 2023 592 576 589 545 560 0 0 2862 -11 2862 Forecast 2024 584 594 573 583 541 0 0 2876 -11 2876 Forecast 2025 569 586 591 567 579 0 0 2893 -11 2893 Forecast 2026 580 571 583 585 563 0 0 2882 -11 2882 Forecast 2027 571 582 568 577 581 0 0 2880 -11 2880 Forecast 2028 558 573 579 562 573 0 0 2846 -11 2846 Forecast 2029 529 560 570 573 558 0 0 2791 -11 2791

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Secondary Migration: 97.25

Average transfer from primary (%): 96.5

Notes: The above data represents the combined roll of Buckler's Mead, Preston and Westfield secondary schools.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 99 Secondary School (11-16/11-18) Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Secondary Forecast: 567 4451 YEOVIL, BUCKLERS MEAD Total Total Net Pupils Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration (Yrs 7 - Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11) Baseline 2018 162 149 180 158 151 0 0 800 800 Forecast 2019 180 164 147 178 157 0 0 826 -3 826 Forecast 2020 177 182 162 145 177 0 0 843 -3 843 Forecast 2021 192 179 180 160 144 0 0 854 -3 854 Forecast 2022 184 194 177 178 159 0 0 891 -3 891 Forecast 2023 189 186 192 175 177 0 0 918 -3 918

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 32.00 Secondary Migration: 99.3

2019 Determined AN * 204

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 570 4455 YEOVIL, PRESTON Total Total Net Pupils Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration (Yrs 7 - Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11) Baseline 2018 176 198 191 195 195 0 0 955 955 Forecast 2019 188 176 198 189 194 0 0 945 -3 945 Forecast 2020 182 188 176 196 188 0 0 931 -3 931 Forecast 2021 195 182 188 174 195 0 0 934 -3 934 Forecast 2022 192 195 182 186 173 0 0 929 -3 929 Forecast 2023 198 192 195 180 185 0 0 951 -3 951

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 33.20 Secondary Migration: 99.3

2019 Determined AN * 210

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

Secondary Forecast: 573 4201 YEOVIL, WESTFIELD Total Total Net Pupils Pupils by NCY Pupils Migration (Yrs 7 - Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ (Yrs 7 -13) (Yrs 7-11) 11) Baseline 2018 202 188 168 121 155 0 0 834 834 Forecast 2019 203 202 187 166 119 0 0 877 -5 877 Forecast 2020 193 203 201 185 164 0 0 946 -5 946 Forecast 2021 204 193 202 199 183 0 0 981 -5 981 Forecast 2022 198 204 192 200 197 0 0 991 -5 991 Forecast 2023 204 198 203 190 198 0 0 993 -5 993

16+ Forecast 0% 17+ Forecast 0%

Forecast Average Town NOR %: 34.80 Secondary Migration: 98.8

2019 Determined AN * 204

Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 100 Primary School Number on Roll Forecast Forecast Base Year: 2018

Area: YEOVIL

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 525 562 583 601 597 624 629 599 613 566 590 4218 Forecast 2019 533 570 590 606 611 621 622 597 605 571 4233 4 Forecast 2020 541 577 595 620 608 615 619 588 610 4255 3 Forecast 2021 548 582 611 616 603 611 609 593 4225 3 Forecast 2022 553 596 608 611 597 600 612 4177 -3 Forecast 2023 581 566 594 602 607 587 604 4141 -5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.90 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.15 Average V&I Adj 93.4% -40 per year

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 24 2300 BARWICK & STOFORD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 9 10 9 13 11 14 14 16 14 8 10 87 Forecast 2019 9 11 9 13 12 14 14 16 14 9 92 2 Forecast 2020 10 11 10 14 12 14 14 16 15 95 3 Forecast 2021 10 11 11 14 12 14 14 17 93 2 Forecast 2022 11 12 11 14 12 14 15 89 3 Forecast 2023 11 12 12 11 14 12 15 87 2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.56 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.96 Average V&I Adj 85.4% -2 per year 2019 Determined AN * 11 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 103 3277 CHILTHORNE DOMER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 17 19 19 20 21 21 21 25 19 23 29 159 Forecast 2019 18 20 19 21 22 21 20 25 18 23 150 0 Forecast 2020 19 20 20 22 22 20 20 24 18 146 0 Forecast 2021 19 21 21 22 21 20 19 24 148 0 Forecast 2022 20 22 21 21 21 19 19 143 0 Forecast 2023 21 21 22 20 21 20 20 145 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.37 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.68 Average V&I Adj 441.2% 15 per year 2019 Determined AN * 21 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 143 2302 EAST COKER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 19 25 31 26 23 35 38 33 35 37 38 239 Forecast 2019 20 26 31 27 26 35 37 31 33 37 226 -1 Forecast 2020 21 26 32 30 26 34 35 29 33 219 -1 Forecast 2021 21 26 35 30 25 32 33 29 210 -2 Forecast 2022 21 29 35 29 23 30 33 200 -2 Forecast 2023 25 24 30 34 27 21 30 191 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.03 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 102.03 Average V&I Adj 144.3% 8 per year 2019 Determined AN * 38 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 101 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 408 3285 WEST COKER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VC

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 35843899739 48 Forecast 2019 3 5 8 4 3 8 9 9 7 3 43 0 Forecast 2020 3 5 8 4 3 8 9 9 7 48 0 Forecast 2021 4 6 9 4 4 8 9 9 49 3 Forecast 2022 4 7 9 5 4 8 9 46 2 Forecast 2023 5 5 7 9 5 4 8 43 1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.54 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 104.17 Average V&I Adj 39.2% -8 per year 2019 Determined AN * 12 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

Town Area Summary: YEOVIL

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 477 503 516 538 539 546 547 516 538 495 504 3685 Forecast 2019 483 508 523 541 548 543 542 516 533 499 3722 3 Forecast 2020 488 515 525 550 545 539 541 510 537 3747 1 Forecast 2021 494 518 535 546 541 537 534 514 3725 0 Forecast 2022 497 526 532 542 537 529 536 3699 -6 Forecast 2023 519 504 523 528 540 530 531 3675 -7 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.87 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.93 Average V&I Adj 90.6% -52.75 per year

Notes: The above data is a summary of the forecast for the following primary schools: Birchfield, Holy Trinity, Huish, Kingfisher, Milford Inf, Milford Junior, Pen Mill, Reckleford, Oaklands, Primrose Lane, Preston, St Gildas and St Michaels.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 432 2320 YEOVIL BIRCHFIELD PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 49 53 51 59 57 59 60 59 59 55 60 409 Forecast 2019 50 53 51 59 57 59 58 57 61 56 407 -1 Forecast 2020 50 53 51 59 57 57 56 56 62 398 -4 Forecast 2021 50 53 51 59 55 55 55 55 383 -6 Forecast 2022 50 53 51 57 53 54 54 372 -6 Forecast 2023 53 50 53 50 56 52 53 367 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.75 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.19 Average V&I Adj 53.8% -46 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 435 3489 YEOVIL HOLY TRINITY PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 54 59 60 60 59 60 59 61 61 60 57 417 Forecast 2019 54 59 60 60 59 60 59 60 60 60 418 -2 Forecast 2020 54 59 60 60 59 60 58 59 60 416 -2 Forecast 2021 54 60 61 61 60 58 57 59 416 1 Forecast 2022 55 61 62 62 58 57 57 412 1 Forecast 2023 58 55 61 61 61 57 57 410 -3 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.61 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.35 Average V&I Adj 250.5% 35 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 102 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 436 2309 YEOVIL HUISH PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 58 58 59 60 60 61 60 60 63 60 60 424 Forecast 2019 59 58 60 60 60 61 59 60 62 60 422 -2 Forecast 2020 59 59 60 60 60 60 59 59 62 420 -2 Forecast 2021 60 59 60 60 59 60 58 59 415 -2 Forecast 2022 60 59 60 59 59 59 58 414 -2 Forecast 2023 60 60 59 59 59 58 59 414 -2 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.44 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.68 Average V&I Adj 81.0% -14 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 438 2311 YEOVIL MILFORD INFANTS Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 82 87 94 87 90 97 95 282 Forecast 2019 83 88 95 87 93 97 277 3 Forecast 2020 84 89 95 90 95 280 5 Forecast 2021 85 89 98 90 277 3 Forecast 2022 85 92 99 276 4 Forecast 2023 89 88 93 270 4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.07 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.69 Average V&I Adj 91.9% -8 per year 2019 Determined AN * 100 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 439 2310 YEOVIL MILFORD JUNIOR Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 104 105 103 103 415 Forecast 2019 102 105 105 106 418 11 Forecast 2020 102 103 105 108 418 9 Forecast 2021 100 103 103 108 414 9 Forecast 2022 96 101 103 106 406 10 Forecast 2023 105 97 101 106 409 10 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 101.30 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 106.09 Average V&I Adj N/A 2019 Determined AN * 105 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 440 3494 YEOVIL OAKLANDS PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 53 55 57 59 60 60 60 62 61 63 61 427 Forecast 2019 53 55 57 59 61 60 60 63 62 64 429 4 Forecast 2020 53 55 57 60 61 59 60 64 63 424 2 Forecast 2021 53 55 58 60 60 59 60 65 417 1 Forecast 2022 53 56 58 59 60 59 60 405 0 Forecast 2023 56 54 56 57 59 60 59 401 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 100.39 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 52.3% -51 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 103 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 442 2312 YEOVIL PEN MILL INFANTS Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 37 37 37 47 43 45 52 140 Forecast 2019 37 37 38 47 43 44 134 -1 Forecast 2020 37 38 38 47 42 127 -1 Forecast 2021 38 38 38 46 122 -1 Forecast 2022 38 38 37 113 -1 Forecast 2023 40 38 37 115 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.80 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.78 Average V&I Adj 76.0% -13 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 445 2314 YEOVIL RECKLEFORD INFANTS Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CO

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 15 17 18 19 21 19 26 66 Forecast 2019 15 17 18 19 23 16 58 -1 Forecast 2020 15 17 18 21 20 59 -1 Forecast 2021 15 17 20 18 55 -1 Forecast 2022 15 19 17 51 -1 Forecast 2023 17 17 17 51 0 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 97.92 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 47.6% -19 per year 2019 Determined AN * 28 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 434 2319 YEOVIL ST MICHAELS JUNIOR Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 62 77 66 71 276 Forecast 2019 66 62 74 66 268 -15 Forecast 2020 52 65 59 74 250 -12 Forecast 2021 54 51 62 59 226 -12 Forecast 2022 56 53 48 62 219 -12 Forecast 2023 47 55 51 48 201 -10 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.02 Forecast transfer from infant rate (Net): 86.48 Average V&I Adj N/A 2019 Determined AN * 81 Notes:

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 443 3283 YEOVIL PRESTON PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 80 58 60 438 Forecast 2019 60 60 60 60 60 59 60 58 79 57 433 -5 Forecast 2020 60 60 60 60 59 59 58 57 78 431 -5 Forecast 2021 60 60 60 59 59 58 57 56 409 -4 Forecast 2022 60 60 59 59 58 57 56 409 -4 Forecast 2023 60 60 59 59 58 57 56 409 -4 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 98.79 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 100.00 Average V&I Adj 78.4% -17 per year 2019 Determined AN * 60 Notes:

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 104 Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 446 2016 YEOVIL KINGFISHER PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 21 24 26 28 30 25 30 0 0 0 0 85 Forecast 2019 23 26 28 30 31 27 31 0 0 0 119 6 Forecast 2020 25 28 30 31 31 29 32 0 0 153 6 Forecast 2021 27 30 31 31 32 30 33 0 187 6 Forecast 2022 29 31 31 32 33 31 34 221 7 Forecast 2023 30 30 31 32 33 34 32 222 5 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 103.01 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 107.81 Average V&I Adj 4.4% 25 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes: As no unique catchment area has been set for this school the forecast of reception year pupils is based largely on the town area trend and may not fully reflect local demand for places.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 447 3487 YEOVIL ST GILDA'S PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): VA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 26 29 29 30 30 30 31 32 32 30 32 217 Forecast 2019 26 29 30 30 30 30 31 33 30 30 214 -1 Forecast 2020 26 30 30 30 30 30 32 31 30 213 -1 Forecast 2021 27 30 30 30 30 31 30 31 212 -1 Forecast 2022 27 30 30 30 31 29 30 207 -1 Forecast 2023 29 27 30 30 31 29 29 205 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 99.45 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 101.06 Average V&I Adj 5.1% 29 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes: The forecast of reception year pupils for this school is calculated using the town area data.

Forecast Base Year: 2018

School: 448 2017 YEOVIL PRIMROSE LANE PRIMARY Control (at Oct 18 Sch Census): CA

Pre-School (by age) School Pupils (by NCY) TOTAL Year 0123R123456 Yrs R-6 Migration Baseline 2018 22 24 25 29 29 30 14 16 0 0 0 89 Forecast 2019 23 26 26 30 31 30 16 18 0 0 125 7 Forecast 2020 25 27 26 32 31 31 18 20 0 158 7 Forecast 2021 25 27 28 32 32 32 19 22 192 7 Forecast 2022 25 27 28 32 31 32 19 194 -1 Forecast 2023 27 25 27 28 31 31 32 201 -1 Forecast school age migration rate (Net): 102.51 Forecast pre-school migration rate (Net): 103.17 Average V&I Adj 4.5% 25 per year 2019 Determined AN * 30 Notes: As no unique catchment area has been set for this school the forecast of reception year pupils is based largely on the town area trend and may not fully reflect local demand for places.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 105 SPECIAL EDUCATION PROVISION Forecast Base Year: 2018

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Baseline) (Forecast) Number of Pupils SPECIAL SCHOOLS 7000 The Mendip School 113 7003 Elmwood School 88 7006 Sky College 53 7007 Fairmead School 98 7013 Penrose School 43 7014 Selworthy School 98 7016 Fiveways Special School 78 7018 Avalon School 49 7019 Critchill School 55 SPECIAL SCHOOL TOTAL 675 694 714 731 746 761

PUPIL REFERRAL UNITS 1109 Tor School 14 1112 South Somerset Partnership School 25 1114 Taunton Deane Partnership College 20 1115 The Bridge School: 28 TOTAL 87 90 90 92 92 92

TOTAL SPECIAL SCHOOL & PRU PROVISION 762 784 804 823 838 853

Notes: 1 The Baseline roll shown above is the actual on roll total of puils returned by each establishment in the October School Census. The nature of PRU provision in particular is that numbers tend to fluctuate during the year. The aim of providing a forecast of pupils on roll for special schools and PRUs is to illustrate the number of pupils on roll in Somerset and thereby provide a complete roll for all state-funded schools in Somerset (hence no forecast data is provided for individual establishments). The above data is not included in the County Forecast figures at the start of this document.

2 Pupils attending LA designated special needs resource bases, which are attached to a small number of schools, are included with the school roll and are NOT included in the above totals.

3 The Special School and PRU forecast totals are calculated as a percentage of the total school roll in Somerset each year. A change in the level of provision (eg the commisioning of additional in-county places) would be expected to bring a change in the number of pupils in that sector.

4 These figures exclude Somerset pupils placed in other LA or independent schools

5 To avoid double counting, dually registered pupils are counted at their main establishment only and are not shown in the totals above. For PRUs in particular, dual registered pupils represent a signficant part of the roll at any point in time. The above figures should not be regarded as the complete client group for these establishments.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 106 APPENDIX A: BASIS OF SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST CALCULATIONS

1 SOURCES OF DATA 1.1 The baseline for each forecast is the actual pupil number data is taken from the DFE October School Census. The forecast of future reception year groups, those children currently of pre-school age, is based on data obtained from Health Authority records.

1.2 Historical School Census number on roll data for the previous 4 years (in addition to the current year roll) forms part of the forecast calculations for all schools as a matter of routine. Further historical number on data is available for all schools for at least the last 10 years is available if required.

1.3 The LA's central pupil database (Capita ONE) provides information to support the forecasting process (eg it enables pupil movements between schools to be monitored, and provides comprehensive data on pupils' home addresses), along with data from the DFE School Census. Where required these datasets are interrogated to provide bespoke data to provide a better understanding of the school roll data. There is an open invitation to schools to comment on the LA produced forecasts and to help inform future forecasts by contributing their local knowledge.

2 PROCESSING OF THE RAW DATA 2.1 Pre-school health authority data are adjusted to reflect any difference between the size of year groups on the school roll and the corresponding year groups provided by the health authority records - ie to take account of parental preference in/out of the school as well as options out of the state sector (eg to independent and elective home education).

2.2 Data for the resident pre-school population provided from the health authority data is only available for the first four years of the forecast. To provide a full 5 year forecast of reception year pupils the fifth year of reception pupils is an arithmetical calculation rather than a forecast based on verified data.

2.3 All reception year pupils are included in the school/County actual number on roll totals even if the parents have opted for deferred entry. (In practice the overwhelming majority of pupils are admitted at the start of the autumn term). The forecasts all show the complete reception year group for each school, no attempt is made to forecast deferred entry.

2.4 The adjusted pre-school data and the actual number on roll data are rolled forward with migration added/subtracted as appropriate to each school area. Migration (sometime referred to as the survival rate) refers to the net change between age groups as they move through the school from one census date to the next. It therefore covers all pupils who join or leave a school roll for factors such as moves into/out of area; transfer to other establishment outside of the normal transfer process; parents opting to home educate their child. Therefore, the forecast level of migration at any school or area is a calculation based on factors such as:-

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 107 - past gains/losses in the area; - confirmed housing developments that are likely to take place within the duration of the forecasts (see below); - options in/out from/to other schools (including independent); - confirmed school re-organisation etc; - any other known relevant factor.

2.5 Primary school forecasts are combined into planning areas with sub-totals shown for each area. These form the basis of the middle/secondary school forecasts with numbers projected forward and adjusted at transfer in line with recent parental preference. In areas served by the 2-tier system the transfer adjustment occurs between years 6 and 7, in 3-tier areas transfer adjustments are made between years 4 and 5 and again between years 8 and 9.

2.6 School 6th form forecasts (where they exist) are calculated on the assumption that the existing provision will be maintained. The forecast roll is calculated from the recent retention rate of pupils from year 11 into year 12, and again with a further adjustment for year 13 to reflect those who do not return for a second year of 6th form study.

2.7 The forecast data is calculated to give the best indication possible of future trends given the information that is known at the time. As far as is possible the forecasts are calculated independently to show the most likely scenario and to enable managers to plan accordingly. They are not subject to manipulation to make a case in favour of a specific course of action (eg the closure of a small school). When completed the forecast data is made available to schools and the local authority to assist in planning of school provision. No forecast will ever be 100% accurate and the margin of error increases over time. At a local level forecast data can become outdated by unforeseen events (see paragraph 4.6 below) or when circumstances change.

3. NEW HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS: 3.1 Where major developments of family housing takes place there is an expectation that there will be some gains of new pupils. By its very nature the local planning process is a consultative one which identifies sites for potential housing developments – not all of which will ultimately proceed, and some may not come forward within the timeframe of the forecasts. The school forecasts of migration include a contribution to reflect the major housing developments where full planning approval has either been granted, or where outline planning permission has been granted and there is a reasonable expectation that development will commence within the next 5 years (as supported by the district planning authority 5-year housing supply data). The mix of accommodation between family houses and those aimed a single people is also particularly relevant to the likely yield of pupils.

3.2 Research has been undertaken locally which has demonstrated that whilst migration in to new housing can occur in all year groups it is most noticeable at key stage 1 and for pre-school age children. The full yield of pupils is not usually felt immediately with further children born after the first occupancy of the housing (such children would be identified as part of the pre-school age population data obtained from the health authority and would be reflected in the forecast data in the normal way when they reach school age).

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 108 3.3 In addition, whilst there are moves of children into new housing developments these may not all be ‘new’ pupils, since some are likely to be existing families re- locating into the housing. There is therefore a downside as well as an upside in that pupils may leave one area of the County to move to another area.

4 FORECASTING ASSUMPTIONS & POSSIBLE VARIATIONS: 4.1 The forecast for individual schools always tries to predict what is likely to happen in practice in terms of the parental demand for places, the number of pupils in the catchment area, and the accommodation limits of the school. This means that the forecasts may not reflect the full demand for places where it is evident that a school is over-subscribed due to applications from outside the school catchment area.

4.2 Consistent with established practice the County level forecasts are produced separately from the individual school level data. This is intended to provide a greater level of accuracy in the overall County data and acts to verify the school level data. The County figures are invariably accurate to within +/- 0.5% one year ahead.

4.3 As part of validation of the forecast data LA level trends are compared to the latest DFE national pupil projections, which are in turn derived the forward trends from ONS mid-year population projections. Over the years the trends of pupil numbers in Somerset has closely followed the national trends.

4.4 In addition, during the calculation process the forecast number on roll data is monitored at district and county level against ONS migration data and historical number on roll. This provides a further level of validation to avoid over/under stating the net gains from migration, options in/out county at primary/secondary transfer or in the size of the pre-school population.

4.5 School level forecasts are subject to a greater degree of variation due to factors such as parental preference (particularly at years R or at transfer age groups), an un-even pattern of migration (due to unforeseen one-off events etc), and choices made at 16+. Where there are major housing developments taking place a major deviation in the rate of build would be expected to have implications for the rate of migration. In an individual area quite small variations in terms of numbers of pupils can be more important in terms of a percentage increase/decrease. Because the LA level forecast is calculated separately, when aggregated, the school level data does not correspond exactly with the County level forecasts, although they follow the same general trends.

4.6 No forecast will ever be completely accurate: they all have a margin for error, which increases the further ahead that the forecast extends. In addition, there are factors the impact of which cannot be included in the forecasts, since they cannot be foreseen, are generally un-confirmed or largely speculative. Therefore, the forecasts could be subject to variation in the following circumstances: - A major change in parental preference; - eg on the back of an OfSTED inspection;

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 109 - Future re-organisation of school provision; eg new school provision, the closure of existing provision, or the change of age range of a school will not in itself change the number of pupils in an area but there would be a change in the distribution of pupils between schools. Therefore, it is possible that in fulfilling its role in school place planning, the local authority may bring forward an area-based response to changes in pupil numbers which may change the structure of school provision in an area. Such a change may not fully align to the current forecast data for an individual school; - Changes in 16+ provision: Any changes to the availability of 6th form provision would be a potential gain or loss of students to/from a local college in the FE sector. - Housing developments the forecasts at school and area level include a forecast gain from major new housing developments that have full planning permission or those without outline planning permission that are reasonably certain to commence (see above). This can create a ‘cliff- edge’ in terms of the number of additional houses that are likely to be built within the forecast period where there is some uncertainty about a development coming forward. In addition, it is not possible to include gains from a new housing development coming forward that is outside the current 5-year housing land supply; - Legislative/regulatory change: eg changes to 16+ provision; eligibility for school transport; revisions to the admissions code; - Alterations to a school’s admission criteria: eg changes to the admission arrangements for one school which can also have a knock-on effect for other schools. The implementation of a revised admission criteria for a school, either a permanent change or a managed response to a fluctuation in pupil numbers (eg the provision of a bulge class for a single year).

4.6 The forecast calculations are determined by the user and not system driven. The process is designed to be flexible so that it can be adapted to reflect current parental preference and respond to changes in legislation etc.

4.7 Hinkley Point C – Construction of the Hinkley Point C power station is now well underway. This is a major construction project that is expected to involve a total of 25000 individual job roles by the time that construction is completed in 2025, with an anticipated peak workforce of 5600. Whilst some of the work force will be sourced from the local population and many will be employed on short term contracts, it is considered likely that workers and their families will relocate to the area. The impact locally on school rolls will be kept under review. 4.8 Areas of potential weakness –There is a recognition that the changes in pupil numbers seen from year to year does not conform to a firm set of rules in that the same inputs will not always lead to a given outcome. Similarly the calculation of school and area forecasts is generally more art than science. All forecasts have a margin of error which recognises that they are susceptible to unforeseeable events and even known events can influence pupil numbers in a way that is not fully quantifiable in advance. In addition there are other factors which complicate forecasting calculations in a local area: - areas that see a major movement of pupils across the County boundary; - schools without a designated catchment area; - post-16 staying on rates

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 110 - the uncertain timing of the opening of new schools.

4.9 There is probably a tendency towards what can be considered ‘optimism bias’ in the forecasting process. In any year there is always a possibility that a small number of schools will suffer an un-expected loss of pupils eg following a poor OfSTED inspection or the loss of a major employer from an area. By their nature these events are unforeseeable and their impact on school rolls uncertain.

5. PUPILS OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF THE FORECAST DATA 5.1 For the avoidance of doubt the following groups do not appear on the roll of a maintained school or academy, so they are not included in the individual school forecast figures or in the local authority level totals: - Pupils in independent schools or elective home education; - SEN pupils placed in independent and non-maintained schools; - Pupils receiving early years provision in the private and voluntary sectors; - Children who are receiving education outside of the state-funded school sector (eg in a further education college).

5.2 Individual school forecast data is not shown for pupils attending the LA’s special schools and pupil referral units. A local authority level forecast of these provisions is made to provide a total roll for all LA schools but it is not included in the school or area forecast totals for mainstream provision.

5.3 Children on the roll of pre-school nursery classes are not included in the school forecast totals even where the provision is run by the school.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 111 APPENDIX B: GUIDANCE ON USE OF THE FORECAST DATA

Use of the Data: Forecasts of future pupil numbers all Somerset primary, middle and secondary schools are calculated annually based on data returned in the October School Census. New forecast data is then made available during the spring term.

As well as being used by the local authority for planning purposes, the data is made available to schools and may be a useful starting point to help in the planning of school class/year group organisation eg where there are bulge year groups. In addition, with school budgets linked to pupil numbers, the data can be used to help inform budgetary planning on a 3-5 year timescale. No forecast will ever be completely accurate the figures are intended to provide the best possible indication of future numbers that is available. The margin of error increases the further ahead that the forecast extends.

Underlying Principles: The forecast calculations are guided by the Somerset policy of ‘local schools for local children’. Therefore, the forecasts attempt to reflect parental preference for a school, but where there are pupils opting into a school from other areas the admission year group forecasts are not generally set above the capacity of the school to accommodate those pupils.

The forecasts essentially project the number on roll based on the fluctuations in the size of year groups resulting from changes in the local birth rate, as well as the likely movement of pupils into and out of a school. They therefore reflect the current trend in take-up of places etc rather than being a speculative exercise

Factors included: The main inputs in the calculation of forecasts are as follows: • The baseline data for the forecast figures is the actual roll taken from the DFE October School Census. • Pre-school numbers at primary schools are based upon data provided by the local health authority regarding the number of children living in the local area. The health authority figures are adjusted to reflect past and present take-up of places by local pupils and trends in parental preference. • An allowance for net migration is made to reflect all movements into/out of a school in other than the admission year or at 16+: The forecast of migration attempts to reflect factors such as new housing developments and the historical pattern of local migration. To that end an allowance would be made for gains from major new housing developments that have received full planning permission as well as those with outline planning permission where local intelligence and the planning authority housing land trajectory indicate that it will come forward within the next 5 years. • The number of pupils transferring to middle and secondary schools is adjusted to take account of expected options to/from other schools/areas. This is based on historical parental preference and the availability of places. • Sixth form forecasts calculations are based on the recent take-up of places from year 11. • Confirmed major changes in the provision of school places. Eg the opening of new provision or the change in age range of a school.

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 112 Factors outside the scope of the forecasts: Events that are largely speculative or where the timing is uncertain cannot be included in the forecast calculations until they are confirmed. Therefore, the following would be outside of the scope of the forecasts: • changes in the pattern of parental preferences in the area; • the influence of future changes in local policy or national legislation, eg changes to the availability of school transport or revisions to the admissions code; • future changes in the provision of school places locally: As well as changes promoted by the local authority in its statutory role of providing sufficient school places, there can be changes made by other local schools (including the independent and FE sector), or the establishment of new parent-led free school provision which may impact on the number of pupils that attend a local school. • new housing developments which do not have planning permission: Where development of a site is not confirmed by the existence of planning permission, it is not possible to factor into the forecast data any the effects of that housing. • other ‘one-off’ or unforeseeable events.

Admissions to School: For all schools a key figure is the number of pupils in the admission group each year. The forecast calculations are undertaken at the end of the autumn term and do NOT reflect the number of preferences made by parents for admission the following September. More up-to-date admission year figures will be known to schools during the spring and summer term each year. There may be instances where the forecast admission year group exceeds the school’s published Admission Number. In such circumstances, it is advisable not to make definite plans on the basis that numbers will reach the forecast figure until places are confirmed.

The forecast number of admissions for later years will be used to help plan future provision by identifying the number of school places that need to be provided. Where there is a need for additional places in an area it is possible that the strategic response may not precisely follow the detailed forecast data.

Area Summary Data: The number of pupils attending a school cannot be considered in complete isolation from what is happening at other nearby schools. For this reason, a summary forecast for all primary schools in an area and for larger secondary school areas is included to help put the data into a local context.

In addition, where there is more than one school of the same age range serving a community (eg the town areas of the County), a summary forecast for the total of all town area schools is included. The forecasts for individual schools in such an area are based on the pattern of parental preferences in the area in recent years - subject to the limits of accommodation, as well as the trend in the number of pupils locally.

Feedback/Revision of Data: The forecast data is updated annually although in exceptional circumstances it may be considered necessary to re-calculate forecasts eg to deal with any significant new factors which have been confirmed. Schools are welcome to supply any feedback, or additional local information at any time of the year which can be fed into the next update of forecast data.

PMIT_ACV/School Population Forecast 2018 Part1.doc March 2018

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 113 INDEX OF FORECASTS

Primary Schools Page(s)

Abbas & Templecombe ...... 93 Ash ...... 60 Ashcott ...... 64 Ashill ...... 24 Axbridge ...... 29

Baltonsborough ...... 46 Barwick & Stoford ...... 101 Bawdrip, Kingsmoor ...... 12 Beckington ...... 41 Berkley ...... 41 Berrow...... 20 Bishops Hull ...... 68 Bishops Lydeard ...... 96 Bowlish...... 57 Brent Knoll ...... 20 Bridgwater College Academy (Years R-6)...... 18 Bridgwater Eastover ...... 16 Bridgwater Hamp Infants ...... 16 Bridgwater Hamp Academy (Junior) ...... 16 Bridgwater Northgate ...... 17 Bridgwater St John & St Francis ...... 17 Bridgwater St Joseph's ...... 17 Bridgwater St Mary's ...... 17 Bridgwater Somerset Bridge ...... 18 Bridgwater Westover Green ...... 16 Bridgwater Willowdown ...... 15 Bridgwater - Primary Summary ...... 15 Broadway Neroche ...... 24 Bruton ...... 92 Buckland St Mary ...... 24 Burnham on Sea Infants ...... 22 Burnham on Sea St Andrew's ...... 22 Burnham on Sea St Joseph's ...... 22 Burnham on Sea - Primary Summary ...... 21 Butleigh ...... 46

Cannington ...... 12 Castle Cary ...... 7 Catcott...... 64 Chard Avishayes ...... 26 Chard Manor Court ...... 26 Chard The Redstart ...... 26 Chard - Primary Summary ...... 25 Charlton Horethorne ...... 92 Charlton Mackrell ...... 49 Cheddar ...... 29 Cheddon Fitzpaine ...... 68 Chewton Mendip ...... 81 Chilcompton, St Vigor and St John ...... 81 Chilthorne Domer ...... 101 Churchstanton ...... 68 Coleford, Bishop Henderson ...... 53 Combe St Nicholas ...... 25 Cotford St Luke ...... 96 Coxley ...... 81 Creech St Michael ...... 69

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 114

INDEX OF FORECASTS Primary Schools (cont'd) Page(s)

Crewkerne Ashlands ...... 36 Crewkerne St Bartholomew's ...... 36 Crewkerne - Primary Summary ...... 36 Croscombe...... 56 Crowcombe ...... 96 Curry Mallet...... 49 Curry Rivel ...... 49 Cutcombe...... 87

Ditcheat ...... 7 Doulting St Aldhelm's ...... 56 Draycott & Rodney Stoke ...... 29 Dulverton All Saint’s Infants ...... 97 Dulverton Junior ...... 97 Dunster ...... 87

East Brent ...... 31 East Coker ...... 101 East Huntspill ...... 20 Enmore ...... 12 Evercreech ...... 7 Exford ...... 87

Frome Christchurch ...... 43 Frome Hayesdown ...... 43 Frome St John's ...... 44 Frome St Louis ...... 44 Frome Trinity ...... 43 Frome Steiner Academy (Years R-6) ...... 44 Frome Vallis ...... 44 Frome - Primary Summary ...... 43

Glastonbury St Benedict's ...... 47 Glastonbury St John's ...... 46

Hambridge ...... 50 Haselbury Plucknett ...... 35 Hatch Beauchamp ...... 69 Hemington...... 53 Henstridge St Nicholas ...... 92 Highbridge Churchfield ...... 21 High Ham ...... 50 Hinton St George ...... 35 Horrington ...... 82 Horsington...... 93 Huish Episcopi ...... 50

Ilchester ...... 60 Ilminster Greenfylde ...... 37 Ilton, St Peter’s and St Mary’s ...... 37

Keinton Mandeville ...... 8 Kilmersdon ...... 53 Kingsbury Episcopi ...... 50 Kingston St Mary ...... 69

Langford Budville ...... 77 Leigh-on-Mendip ...... 41 Long Sutton...... 51 Lovington ...... 8 Lydeard St Lawrence ...... 97 Lympsham ...... 31 BI Children's Team (March 2019) 115

INDEX OF FORECASTS Primary Schools (cont'd) Page(s)

Mark ...... 31 Martock ...... 60 Meare ...... 47 Mells ...... 42 Merriott ...... 35 Middlezoy ...... 51 Milborne Port ...... 93 Milverton ...... 97 Minehead County First ...... 89 Minehead St Michael's ...... 88 Minehead - First Summary ...... 88 Misterton ...... 36 Montacute, All Saint's ...... 61

Nether Stowey ...... 13 North Cadbury ...... 8 North Curry ...... 69 North Newton ...... 13 North Petherton ...... 13 Norton Fitzwarren ...... 70 Norton St Philip ...... 42 Norton Sub Hamdon ...... 61 Nunney...... 42

Oake, Bradford & Nynehead ...... 98 Oakhill ...... 56 Old Cleeve ...... 90 Othery ...... 51 Otterhampton ...... 13

Pawlett ...... 21 Porlock St Dubricius ...... 88 Priddy ...... 82 Puriton...... 14

Queen Camel, The Countess Gytha ...... 8

Rockwell Green ...... 77 Rode ...... 42 Ruishton ...... 70

Sampford Arundel ...... 77 Shepton Beauchamp ...... 37 Shepton Mallet Infants ...... 58 Shepton Mallet St Paul's ...... 58 Shepton Mallet - Primary Summary ...... 57 Shipham ...... 30 Somerton King Ina Infants ...... 51 Somerton King Ina Junior ...... 52 South Petherton Infants ...... 61 South Petherton Junior ...... 61 Spaxton ...... 14 Staplegrove ...... 70 Stawley ...... 98 Stogumber ...... 98 Stogursey ...... 14 Stoke St Gregory ...... 70 Stoke St Michael ...... 57 Stoke Sub Hamdon, The Castle ...... 62

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 116

INDEX OF FORECASTS Primary Schools (cont'd) Page(s)

St Benedicts, Stratton on the Fosse ...... 54 Street Brookside ...... 65 Street Elmhurst ...... 65 Street Hindhayes ...... 65 Street - Primary Summary ...... 65

Tatworth ...... 25 Taunton Bishop Henderson ...... 72 Taunton Blackbrook ...... 72 Taunton Halcon ...... 72 Taunton Holway Park ...... 72 Taunton Holy Trinity ...... 74 Taunton Lyngford Park ...... 75 Taunton Nerrols ...... 73 Taunton North Town ...... 73 Taunton Parkfield ...... 73 Taunton Priorswood ...... 73 Taunton St Andrew's...... 74 Taunton St George's ...... 74 Taunton St James ...... 74 Taunton Wellsprings ...... 75 Taunton - Primary Summary...... 71 Thurlbear...... 71 Timberscombe ...... 88 Tintinhull St Margaret’s ...... 62 Trull ...... 71

Upton Noble ...... 57

Walton ...... 64 Watchet, Knights Templar ...... 90 Weare ...... 32 Wedmore ...... 32 Wellington Beech Grove ...... 78 Wellington new school @ Longforth Farm ...... 79 Wellington St John's ...... 78 Wellington Wellesley Park ...... 79 Wellington - Primary Summary ...... 78 Wells St Cuthbert's Infants ...... 83 Wells St Cuthbert's Junior ...... 83 Wells St Joseph and St Teresa ...... 83 Wells Stoberry Park ...... 84 Wells - Primary Summary ...... 83 Wembdon St George's...... 14 West Buckland ...... 78 Westbury sub Mendip St Lawrence ...... 82 West Chinnock ...... 62 West Coker ...... 102 West Huntspill ...... 21 West Monkton ...... 71 West Pennard ...... 47 Westonzoyland ...... 15 Williton St Peter's ...... 90 Wincanton County Primary ...... 94 Wincanton Our Lady's...... 94 Wincanton - Primary Summary ...... 93 Winsham ...... 25 Wiveliscombe ...... 98 Wookey ...... 82 Woolavington ...... 15

BI Children's Team (March 2019) 117

INDEX OF FORECASTS Primary Schools (cont'd) Page(s)

Yeovil Birchfield ...... 102 Yeovil Holy Trinity ...... 102 Yeovil Huish ...... 103 Yeovil Kingfisher ...... 105 Yeovil Milford Infants ...... 103 Yeovil Milford Junior ...... 103 Yeovil Oaklands ...... 103 Yeovil Pen Mill ...... 104 Yeovil Preston ...... 104 Yeovil Primrose Lane ...... 105 Yeovil Reckleford ...... 104 Yeovil St Gilda’s ...... 105 Yeovil St Michael’s ...... 104 Yeovil - Primary Summary ...... 102

Middle Schools Blackford, Hugh Sexey's ...... 28 Cheddar, Fairlands ...... 28 Crewkerne, Maiden Beech ...... 34 Frome, Oakfield ...... 40 Frome, Selwood ...... 40 Frome - Middle Summary ...... 39 Ilminster, Swanmead ...... 34 Minehead ...... 86 Williton, Danesfield ...... 86

Secondary Schools Ansford...... 6 Bridgwater College Academy (Years 7 -11) ...... 10 Bridgwater, Robert Blake ...... 9 Bridgwater, Chilton Trinity...... 10 Bridgwater, Haygrove ...... 10 Bridgwater - Secondary Summary ...... 9 Brymore ...... 11 Bruton, Sexey's ...... 91 Burnham on Sea, The King Alfred ...... 19 Chard, Holyrood ...... 23 Cheddar, The Kings of Wessex ...... 27 Crewkerne, Wadham ...... 33 Frome College ...... 38 Frome, Steiner Academy (Years 7-11) ...... 38 Glastonbury, St Dunstan's ...... 45 Huish Episcopi ...... 48 Shepton Mallet, Whitstone ...... 55 Stoke sub Hamdon, Stanchester ...... 59 Street, Crispin ...... 63 Taunton Academy ...... 67 Taunton, Bishop Fox’s… ...... 67 Taunton, The Castle ...... 66 Taunton, Heathfield ...... 67 Taunton - Secondary Summary ...... 66 Wellington, Court Fields...... 76 Wells, The Blue ...... 80 West Somerset Community College ...... 85 Wincanton, King Arthur's ...... 91 Wiveliscombe, Kingsmead...... 95 Yeovil, Buckler's Mead ...... 100 Yeovil, Preston ...... 100 Yeovil, Westfield ...... 100 Yeovil - Secondary Summary ...... 99 BI Children's Team (March 2019) 118