SOMERSET SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST 2018 Somerset County Council County Hall, Taunton Somerset, TA1 4DY March 2019 BI Children's Team (March 2019) BI Children's Team (March 2019) 2 SOMERSET SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST - 2018 PART 1 - COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS PART 2 - FORECAST DATA APPENDIX A: BASIS OF SCHOOL POPULATION FORECAST CALCULATIONS APPENDIX B: GUIDANCE ON USE OF THE FORECAST DATA INDEX OF FORECASTS BI Children's Team (March 2019) 3 PART 1: COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION The 2018 forecasts of pupil numbers for state-funded schools in Somerset are contained in this document. This first part provides a commentary on the trends in pupil numbers with the forecast figures set out in Part 2. New forecasts are produced annually based on the latest number on roll and pre- school children data. It also enables any new information on school organisation or new housing developments to be included and allows the forecasts to react to changes in parental preference. The forecast data in this document has been calculated using as the base data, the actual number on roll for October 2018 (as supplied by schools as part of the Department for Education (DFE) School Census). For primary schools the forecasts are produced for the period up to 2023, for middle school areas the forecasts the period up to 2027, and for secondary school areas up to 2029. A summary of the way that the forecasts are calculated is set out in Appendix A of this document. The forecast data are available for use as a general resource by all schools, local authority staff, and those with a wider interest in school pupil numbers. The forecast totals for each school will appear as part of the Somerset School Organisation Plan which is a key part of the LAs statutory responsibility for planning of school places. As part of that statutory duty, the forecast data is reported to the DFE as part of the annual School Capacity Collection return (SCAP). The DFE use the pupil forecast data to inform the basic need funding allocation which assists LAs in providing the school places required to meet future demand. Key Headlines ►The end of the era of large increases in primary aged pupils is in sight. Numbers are forecast to stabilise in 2019 and 2020 with a decline beginning in 2021; ►Some individual primary schools are already seeing small declines in pupil numbers; ►An increase in the numbers of pupils in the secondary sector. Numbers started increasing in 2017 and are forecast to increase until 2025; ►Substantial growth in secondary school number on roll is forecast in Bridgwater, Taunton and Yeovil reflecting previous growth in primary school numbers in these areas; ►16+ pupil numbers slightly lower than previously forecast; ►A forecast increase in the total of mainstream pupils each year until 2021, with the numbers plateauing in 2022 and 2023; ►A further increase in the number of pupils in Somerset’s special schools; BI Children's Team (March 2019) 4 1. COUNTY LEVEL TRENDS Calculation of County Forecasts: 1.1 In line with established practice the forecasts at County level (which appear in Part 2, page 5) have been calculated separately rather than by aggregation of the individual school forecasts. This provides a means of validating the school forecasts to avoid serious over/under-estimating. Primary aged pupils (Years R to 6) 1.2 The number of primary aged pupils has been increasing since 2009. In October 2018 there were 41388 pupils, an increase of 263 (0.6%) since 2017. This increase is in line with the 2017 forecasts with an actual roll that is 41 above the forecast number – a difference of 0.1%. In line with the forecast trend, this is the 9th successive year that primary aged pupil numbers have increased. It means that there are now 4607 more pupils in Somerset than there were in 2009 – an increase of 12.5%. 1.3 In 2019 and 2020 the number of primary aged pupils is forecast to plateau with little change from the 2018, roll before beginning a decline in 2021 as slightly smaller numbers are forecast to enter the reception year compared to the numbers that will be leaving year 6. This decline continues through the rest of the forecast period (ie to 2023). 1.4 The recent rise in pupil numbers in the primary age range in Somerset is part of a national trend. This is demonstrated in the accompanying Chart A, which plots the number of pupils in Somerset and England since 2001. The forecast levelling off and slight decline in primary numbers that is forecast in Somerset is consistent with the general national trend. DFE national pupil projections*1 are based on ONS national population projections and include a forecast of the national birth-rate giving data up to academic year 2026/27. By contrast, the forecasts for Somerset are based largely on the data for the living resident population available from the Somerset Health Authority so only extend to 2023/24. If Somerset follows the forecast national trend there is unlikely to be any overall increase in primary age pupils before 2027. Although there could be some local increases where a community is expanding. 1.5 Chart A shows that the primary actual roll in Somerset has climbed slightly less steeply than the DFE national projections in the last few years and the forecast trends indicate that Somerset pupil numbers in the primary age range will fall a little more quickly than the national trend. This may reflect the predominantly rural nature of Somerset compared to the DFE national trend which, by definition, includes the more urban areas of the Country as well. 1.6 The number of pupils entering Somerset primary schools at reception increased quite noticeably from 2007, resulting from previous increases in the birth rate. This has driven a large increase in the number of pupils in the primary sector. The 2015 and 2016 reception year groups were the largest recorded in Somerset both being over 5900 pupils. In line with the forecast, the actual 2017 and 2018 reception years have been lower – both below 5800. The forecast reception year groups for the remainder of the forecast period show that numbers are continuing to fall from the 2015 peak. By 2022, the extent of forecasts covered by live population data, the reception year is forecast to be 5452, a total that is 500 fewer than in 2015. This forecast decline is a result of a fall in the birth rate across the County and whilst the forecast data includes an BI Children's Team (March 2019) 5 expected gain from migration in the pre-school year groups, this does not offset the fall in the number of reception pupils. Table 1: Change in KS1 and KS2 pupils 2009 – 2021 KS1 KS2 Total Difference Difference Difference Pupils Pupils Primary 2009 (A) 15899 20882 36781 2050 2078 4128 2016 (A) 17949 22960 40909 -358 837 479 2018 (A) 17591 23797 41388 -218 203 -15 2019 (F) 17373 24000 41373 -232 -137 -369 2021 (F) 17141 23863 41004 Table 2: Change in secondary aged pupils 2003 – 2023 Years Years Total Difference Difference Difference 7-11 12+ Secondary 2003 (A) 29363 1702 31065 -4573 202 -4371 2016 (A) 24790 1904 26694 717 -299 418 2018 (A) 25507 1605 27112 903 68 971 2020 (F) 26410 1673 28083 1324 74 1398 2023 (F) 27734 1747 29481 Table 1 & 2 Notes: (a) The actual data covers all state-funded schools in Somerset open at each Census date. The forecast data reflects current provision even though this may be different from the historical establishment of schools, eg where new provision has been established or where schools have closed. (b) The differences shown in the above tables are from the previous point (eg 2009 to 2016, or 2018 to 2019). A = Actual; F = Forecast 1.7 As is shown in Table 1, there was a large increase in the number of KS1 pupils between 2009 and 2016 - a rise of 2050. The current birth rate cycle will leave 2016 as the high point of KS1 pupil numbers with the 2018 total already 358 fewer than the 2016 figure. As well as the strategic need to ensure the total number of school places in each area, this has had to be achieved whilst maintaining the legal class size limit at KS1 at each school. The number of BI Children's Team (March 2019) 6 KS2 pupils increased by 2915 between 2009 and 2018 and a further increase of 203 is forecast for 2019 but the number is forecast to decline thereafter. From 2019 to 2021 there is a forecast decrease of 137 pupils at KS2, which combined with the fall at KS1, means that the overall primary age pupil roll is forecast to fall by 369. With a further fall forecast, the total roll is expected to be 1280 lower in 2023 than it was in 2018. Secondary age pupils (Years 7 to 11): 1.8 From a peak in 2003 there was a decline in the number of secondary aged pupils for 13 consecutive years as smaller year groups worked their way from the primary to the secondary sector. The number of pupils in years 7 to 11 dropped by 4573 (a fall of 15.6%). 2017 saw the first increase in secondary aged pupils which has continued in 2018 as forecast: the 2018 roll being 490 higher than in 2017 (a 2.0% rise). Secondary pupil numbers are forecast to continuing rising until at least 2023 at which point they are forecast to level off and then decline towards the end of the forecast period in 2027.