Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office and Leisure Study
Final Report
January 2010 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office and Leisure Study
CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1 2. LOCAL CONTEXT ...... 4 3. PLANNING POLICY FRAMEWORK...... 7 4. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ...... 13 5. HEALTHCHECK ASSESSMENT...... 18 6. IN-CENTRE SHOPPER SURVEY ...... 23 7. RETAILER BUSINESS SURVEY...... 32 8. TOWN CENTRE MARKET FEASIBILITY ...... 39 9. RETAIL CAPACITY METHODOLOGY ...... 44 10. CONVENIENCE RETAIL ANALYSIS...... 50 11. COMPARISON RETAIL ANALYSIS ...... 56 12. BULKY COMPARISON RETAIL ANALYSIS...... 61 13. PPS4 ASSESSMENT...... 65 14. LEISURE ASSESSMENT...... 79 15. OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT...... 83 16. CONCLUSIONS ...... 96
APPENDICES
1. RETAIL STUDY CATCHMENT PLAN 2. CONVENIENCE RETAIL CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 3. COMPARISON RETAIL CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 4. BULKY GOODS RETAIL CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 5. RETAIL BUSINESS SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE 6. FOOTFALL SURVEY LOCATION PLAN
January 2010 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 GVA Grimley was appointed by Burnley Borough Council in September 2009 to prepare a Retail, Office and Leisure Study of Padiham town centre. The study seeks to provide a comprehensive picture of and identify the potential requirements for new floorspace on the basis of current local shopping and leisure patterns and office requirements.
1.2 The study will primarily inform the Padiham Area Action Plan (AAP) which the Council is presently preparing to comprehensively guide investment, regeneration and conservation of the town centre. The study will also provide a robust evidence base to assist the Council to make informed development control decisions on future retail, office and leisure proposals.
1.3 The main terms of reference for the assessment can be summarised as follows:
• To understand the existing shopping and leisure behaviour of local residents living within and adjacent to Padiham and to identify convenience, comparison and bulky expenditure patterns through commissioning detailed survey-based evidence.
• To undertake a PPS4 compliant healthcheck assessment of the town centre, qualitatively appraising it against previous healthcheck exercises.
• To assess the future quantitative capacity and qualitative need for additional retail, office and leisure floorspace in the town centre.
• To critically assess the feasibility of re-establishing a regular market in the town;
• To provide strategic advice on the overall future retail need and confirm an appropriate forward development strategy for Padiham to be taken forward through the Area Action Plan (AAP) and wider LDF process.
1.4 The study is informed by two independent survey exercises, firstly full in-centre shopper surveys of town centre visitors and secondly a catchment-wide household telephone survey. The in-centre shopper survey has been designed in conjunction with the Council to determine:
• The profile of visitors and shoppers to the town centre.
• The strengths and weaknesses of the town centre in terms of the existing retail offer, wider facilities and town centre environment.
• Patterns of usage for the centre (i.e. frequency of visits, modal split, dwell times).
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• Suggested qualitative improvements which would persuade shoppers to visit or stay in the centre more frequently.
1.5 The household telephone survey exercise informs the quantitative component of the study, identifying the current market share performance of the town and its individual stores. The ability to quantify the survey results in monetary terms enables a detailed understanding of the implications for potential expenditure growth in relation to existing and planned retail floorspace provision.
1.6 The results of the full quantitative analysis and qualitative appraisal (including healthcheck assessment) along with the identification of planned and proposed improvements in competing centres, are drawn together to provide a set of recommendations to enable the Borough Council to proactively plan for future development.
1.7 The conclusions represent a ‘point-in-time’ assessment which can be used to inform policy which in all probability will be expected to endure for a number of years. The current economic conditions may however have a short-term impact on existing provision (e.g. store closures) and the deliverability of developments; the study has therefore sought to reflect the current economic situation through sensitivity testing.
1.8 It will however be important that the Borough Council continues to monitor the health of the town centre through its forward planning function, adopting and revisiting the town centre strategy to address changing circumstances.
REPORT STRUCTURE
1.9 In accordance with the terms of the Study Brief this report is structured as follows:
PART ONE – BACKGROUND DETAIL AND CONTEXT
• Section 2 – Local Context ; profiles the town centre and surrounding centres, detailing the existing and emerging pattern of retail and leisure provision which could potentially impact upon the future performance of Padiham.
• Section 3 – Planning Policy Framework ; sets out the emerging national, regional and local planning policy framework which will guide forward policy development.
• Section 4 – Background Information ; reviews and summarises the main findings of previous studies for Padiham.
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PART TWO – QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT
• Section 5 – Healthcheck Assessment ; assesses the performance of the town centre against the vitality and viability criteria set out in PPS4. The assessment seeks to comparatively assess and benchmark Padiham against available local and regional data and provide a baseline for future monitoring.
• Section 6 – In-Centre Survey ; draws out the main qualitative results of the comprehensive in-centre survey undertaken within the town centre.
• Section 7 – Business Survey ; summarises the main findings of the retailer survey that was hand-delivered to businesses in the town centre.
• Section 8 – Town Centre Market ; critically assesses the commercial feasibility of re- establishing a market in Padiham town centre.
PART THREE – QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT
• Section 9 - Research Methodology ; sets out the methodology underpinning the quantitative capacity modelling exercise.
• Sections 10 to 12 – Quantitative Assessment ; reviews the current and future retail performance and market shares of the town centre in respect to convenience and comparison (high street and bulky durable) retail provision.
• Section 13 – PPS4 Assessment ; balances the potential positive and negative benefits arising from provision of a new foodstore in Padiham.
• Section 14 - Leisure Assessment ; summarises local residents existing leisure patterns for different leisure activities including cinema, gym and socialising.
• Section 15 – Office Assessment ; identifies existing patterns of office activity in the town centre and forecasts future demand.
PART FOUR – CONCLUSIONS AND STRATEGIC ADVICE
• Section 16 – sets out our recommendations in terms of forward strategy for Padiham.
1.10 The conclusions of the town centre study also inform a critique of emerging development proposals for a new foodstore on the edge of the town centre. Analysis of the applicant’s retail impact assessment is however set out in a separate report.
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2. LOCAL CONTEXT
PADIHAM
2.1 Padiham is the second largest settlement in Burnley with a population of c. 9,000 inhabitants. The town is located 3 miles to the north west of Burnley and serves a wide rural hinterland including the nearby settlements of Hapton, Read, Simonstone, Higham and Sabden.
2.2 The historic core of the town, situated on a meander in the River Calder, is a conservation area and retains much of the character of a pre-industrial market town. Burnley Road and Church Street (A671) form the main route through this linear town centre and accommodate the majority of retail and service uses, most of which are local in nature. This thoroughfare is also the main focus of the evening economy with several pubs and bars complemented by restaurants and hot-food takeaway outlets.
2.3 The built form within the town centre mainly comprises small-scale terraced premises converted for town centre uses. However, the Co-Op supermarket recently relocated to new stand-alone premises (the former Somerfield supermarket) on the north side of Burnley Road; its former premises are now occupied by Tesco Express.
2.4 In terms of accessibility, the town centre is well-served by regular bus services to the wider hinterland (including Accrington, Burnley and Colne). The town also benefits from direct access to the strategic road network with the M65 motorway located 2 miles to the south east of the town towards Burnley.
BURNLEY AND EAST LANCASHIRE
BURNLEY
2.5 Burnley is a large town located 3 miles to the south east of Padiham via the A671 Burnley Road. The primary retail area within the town centre is concentrated along St James Street and the Charter Walk Shopping Centre. As a sub-regional centre, Burnley has high representation from the major national multiples such as Dorothy Perkins and Next, complimented by a strong independent retail offer (including town centre market).
2.6 Out-of-centre retail provision in Burnley is predominantly focused within Prestige Retail Park, which includes Currys, PC World and a large Sainsbury’s supermarket. Anchor Retail Park
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and Princess Way further also accommodate a number of bulky and non-bulky comparison retailers as well as Iceland and Asda respectively. There is a network of district centres and smaller local centres in the town serving day-to-day shopping needs.
CLITHEROE
2.7 Clitheroe is a small historic town located 6 miles to the north west of Padiham. It is the principal centre in Ribble Valley and serves a large surrounding rural hinterland. The town centre has a compact historic core focused around Castle Street and the Market Place and predominantly comprises small independent local shops and services. The town does however perform a wider shopping function with large Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Booth’s foodstores and a Homebase DIY store. Clitheroe has a successful market with specialist farmer’s market events.
ACCRINGTON
2.8 Accrington is located 4 miles to the southwest of Padiham. The primary retail area within the town centre is concentrated within the purpose built Arndale Centre, which is anchored by major national multiples such as Dorothy Perkins, Marks & Spencer and Peacocks. The town centre also comprises a number of discount fashion operators and local independent retailers with a large market. Main foodstore provision in the town presently includes Asda and Aldi although construction of a large edge-of-centre Tesco Extra store is shortly to commence.
GREAT HARWOOD
2.9 Great Harwood is a small town located to the west of Padiham. It draws from a small localised catchment and has a limited retail offer with a Co-Op store complemented by local independent shops and services. Construction of a new medium sized Tesco foodstore is however scheduled to commence imminently.
PENDLE
2.10 Nelson and Colne are the main shopping centres within the Borough of Pendle, located 4 miles and 6 miles to the north east of Padiham respectively; local residents living in the villages of Higham and Fence look towards provision in the respective towns given surrounding topography and transport links.
2.11 Nelson town centre is largely pedestrianised and comprises a broad range of discount comparison operators and local independent retailers. There is a large Morrison’s
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supermarket and an out-of-centre B&Q warehouse located prominently from the M65. Full planning permission has recently been granted for a new Booth’s foodstore in Barrowford.
2.12 Colne town centre is linear in nature and focused along Church Street and Market Street. The town centre comprises a mix of local independent retailers as well as a popular indoor market. Sainsbury’s have full planning permission for a new large edge-of-centre foodstore.
2.13 In terms of out-of-centre retail provision, Colne is served by two retail parks. Boundary Mill Retail Park includes Next and Pets At Home as well as an Asda supermarket. North Valley Retail Park comprises Matalan, Poundstretcher and an Aldi supermarket. The Boundary Mill fashion outlet village draws from a significantly wider sub-regional catchment.
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3. PLANNING POLICY FRAMEWORK
3.1 The primary purpose of the study is to provide a forward-looking exercise which will inform preparation of an Area Action Plan (AAP) for Padiham. This section sets out the key themes arising from the existing and emerging planning policy framework.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE
PPS1 – DELIVERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
3.2 PPS1 was issued in February 2005 and sets out the overarching planning policies on the delivery of sustainable development through the planning system. The guidance confirms that sustainable development is the core principle underpinning planning, clarifying that at the heart of sustainable development is the simple idea of ensuring a better quality of life for everyone today and for future generations.
3.3 The Government makes clear that planning should facilitate and promote sustainable and inclusive patterns of urban and rural development through a number of initiatives, including the need to ensure that new developments provide good access to jobs and key services for all members of the community. In promoting sustainable development, the Government reaffirms through the guidance that, amongst other things, the planning system needs to:
• Recognise that economic development can deliver environmental and social benefits;
• Make suitable land available for development in line with economic, social and environment objectives – ensuring that suitable locations are available for industrial, commercial, retail, tourism and leisure development, so that the economy can prosper;
• Promote urban and rural regeneration to improve the well-being of communities, improve facilities, promote high quality and safe development and create new opportunities for the people living in those communities. Promote mixed-use developments for locations that allow the creation of linkages between different uses and can thereby create more vibrant places;
• Provide improved access for all jobs, health, education, shops, leisure and community facilities, open space, sport and recreation, by ensuring that new development is location where everyone can access services or facilities on foot, bicycle or public transport rather
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than having to rely on access by car, while recognising that this may be more difficult in rural areas; and
• Promote the more efficient use of land through higher density, mixed-use development and the use of suitably located previously developed land and buildings; bring vacant and under-used previously developed land and buildings back into beneficial use to achieve the targets the Government has set for development on previously developed land.
3.4 Whilst PPS1 sets the key objectives for the planning system, the guidance does not replace or override other national policies and should be read in conjunction with other statements of national planning policy.
PPS4 – PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
3.5 PPS4 was published in December 2009 and represents the Government’s most up-to-date expression of policy in relation to retail and leisure uses. At the outset the guidance states that the Government’s key objectives for town centres are to:
• Deliver more sustainable patterns of development through reducing the need to travel and responding to climate change.
• Promoting the vitality and viability of town centre and other centres as important places for communities by:
- Focusing economic growth and development of main town centre uses (i.e. retail) within existing centres with the aim of offering a wide range of services to communities in an attractive and safe environment and remedying deficiencies in provision in areas with poor access to facilities.
- Enhancing competition between retailers and enhanced consumer choice through the provision of innovative and efficient shopping, leisure, tourism and local services in town centres, allowing genuine choice to meet the needs of the entire community.
3.6 The guidance goes within this context to reaffirm that it is not the intention of the planning system to restrict competition, preserve commercial interests or prevent innovation.
3.7 In assessing the need for retail and leisure development, the guidance (policy EC1.4) directs local planning authorities to (amongst others):
• Take account on both the quantitative and qualitative need for additional floorspace for different types of retail and leisure developments.
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• In deprived areas which lack access to a range of services and facilities, give additional weight to meeting these qualitative deficiencies. Regeneration and Employment benefits are however specified as material considerations in the site selection process.
3.8 In planning for consumer choice and promoting competitive town centres, policies EC3 and EC4 require local planning authorities to:
• Support a diverse range of uses.
• Plan for a strong retail mix so that the range and quality of the retail offer meets the requirements of the local catchment area, recognising that smaller shops can significantly enhance the character and vibrancy of a centre.
• Identify sites in the centre, or failing that on the edge of the centre, capable of accommodating larger format developments where a need for such development has been identified.
• Retain and enhance existing markets and, where appropriate, re-introduce or create new ones, ensuring that markets remain attractive and competitive by investing in their improvement.
• Encourage a diverse range of complementary evening and night-time uses which appeal to a wide range of local residents.
3.9 In selecting approach sites for main town centre uses, whilst retaining the centre first sequential approach previously set out in PPS6, policy EC5 states that local planning authorities should:
• Base their approach on the identified need for development.
• Identify the appropriate scale of development, ensuring that the scale of the sites identified and the level of travel they generate, are in keeping with the role and function of the centre within the hierarchy of centres and the catchment served.
• Apply the sequential approach to site selection (i.e. in centre, followed by edge of centre, then accessible out of centre opportunities).
• Assess the impact of sites on existing centres.
• Consider the degree to which other considerations such as any physical regeneration benefits of developing on previously-developed sites, employment opportunities, increased investment in an area or social inclusion, may be material to the choice of appropriate locations for development.
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3.10 In assessing the impact of proposed locations for development, local planning authorities are required to take account of the considerations set out in policies EC10 and EC16, as follows:
POLICY EC10
a) Sustainability and climate change.
b) Accessibility by a choice of means of transport and the effect on local traffic levels and congestion after public transport and traffic management measures have been secured.
c) Whether the proposal secures a high quality and inclusive design which takes the opportunities available for improving the character and quality of the area and the way it functions.
d) The impact on economic and physical regeneration in the area including the impact on deprived areas and social inclusion objectives.
e) The impact on local employment.
POLICY EC16
a) The impact of the proposal on existing committed and planned public and private investment in a centre or centres in the catchment area of the proposal.
b) The impact of the proposal on town centre vitality and viability, including local consumer choice and the range and quality of the retail offer.
c) The impact of the proposal on allocated sites outside town centres being developed in accordance with the development plan.
d) The impact of the proposal on in-centre trade / turnover and on trade in the wider area, taking account of current and future expenditure capacity in the catchment area.
e) If located in or on the edge of a town centre, whether the proposal is of an appropriate scale (in terms of gross floorspace) in relation to the size of the centre and its role in the hierarchy of centres.
f) Any locally important impacts on centres.
3.11 Where significant adverse impacts have been identified, the PPS4 guidance goes to require local planning authorities in its development management role to take account of the positive and negative impacts of a proposal and any other material considerations in determining proposals for retail and leisure development.
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REGIONAL SPATIAL STRATEGY (RSS)
3.12 The North West Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS 13) was adopted in September 2008 and provides a framework for development in the region through to 2021. The RSS establishes a broad vision for the region and its sub-regions, priorities for growth and regeneration, and policies to achieve sustainable development across a wide range of topics. The RSS complements but does not repeat national policy guidance.
3.13 The main policy and strategy themes relevant to this retail, office and leisure based study include:
• Spatial Policies ; promotion of sustainable communities through making best use of existing resources and infrastructure; managing travel demand and reducing the need to travel; and marrying opportunity with need. The RSS re-emphasises the sequential approach to development.
• Regional Spatial Framework ; defines a settlement hierarchy where growth and development should be prioritised. Development in ‘suburban’ towns such as Padiham is encouraged whereby it is compatible (scale etc.) with larger towns such as Burnley.
• Sustainable Economy ; retail development policy maintains the spatial hierarchy by directing major comparison retail development to a strategic network of regional and sub- regional centres. Investment of an appropriate scale in centres not identified in the strategic network, such as Padiham, is encouraged to enhance their vitality and viability.
• Central Lancashire City Region ; encourages appropriate development in smaller towns such as Padiham to complement ongoing regeneration initiatives in larger centres.
3.14 The RSS forms part of the statutory development plan which will inform the preparation of the Padiham Area Action Plan (AAP), as set out below.
PADIHAM AREA ACTION PLAN (AAP)
3.15 Whilst the replacement Local Plan was only adopted in April 2006, a new planning framework for Padiham has been in preparation since 2005. Following extensive consultation on an evidence base and subsequent preparation of an initial issues and options paper for the town in 2007, the Council published a Preferred Option AAP report in February 2008.
3.16 The Preferred Option AAP set out a series of objectives to achieve a step change in the performance of Padiham in the wider locality, including complementing regeneration activity in
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the wider area and developing a sustainable neighbourhood through encouraging the provision of a choice of accessible local shops and services.
3.17 In relation to retail, office and leisure development, the main preferred option policies and proposals included (amongst other generic policies relating to sustainability, landscaping etc.):
• Continued protection of existing employment land and premises in order to support long term growth and diversification in the local economy.
• Encouraging mixed-use development 1 through redeveloping existing under-utilised employment sites for housing, employment, retail, leisure and tourism uses.
• Enhancing the wider town centre environment through promoting public realm works, enhancing existing buildings within the designated conservation area, focusing on gateway sites and opportunities and achieving landscape improvements.
• Maintaining the central retail area within the town centre through restricting change-of- use of shops to non-retail uses and promoting improvements to existing shop fascias.
3.18 Public consultation on the Preferred Option AAP was held between February and September 2008. The Council has subsequently worked through initial consultation responses and made relevant changes to the Preferred Option AAP where appropriate.
3.19 This retail, office and leisure study is intended to provide a robust evidence base in which to take forward the Preferred Option AAP towards public examination in 2010.
1 Preferred Option AAP policy PAD MU1/1
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4. BACKGROUND INFORMATION
4.1 Padiham has been subject to several detailed town centre studies over the past decade in order to guide investment and development in the town and also to enhance its vitality and viability as a market town which serves a wider rural hinterland.
4.2 This section reviews the main findings arising from the comprehensive evidence base that the Council has collated; it provides a baseline for comparative assessment with the findings of the quantitative and qualitative analysis undertaken in proceeding sections.
PADIHAM TOWN CENTRE RETAIL STUDY
4.3 A retail study of Padiham town centre was carried out by GVA Grimley in December 1997. The study specifically sought to assess the town’s vitality and viability through undertaking a detailed healthcheck exercise alongside a retail capacity study. The methodology for undertaking retail capacity studies has evolved significantly over the past decade and it is therefore difficult to compare the 1997 capacity results with the survey-derived evidence base that underpins this study and the wider AAP. The main study findings are summarised below.
HEALTHCHECK
4.4 The town centre healthcheck exercise considered retailer mix, diversity of uses, vacancy rates, accessibility, environmental quality, identity and organisational structures. A comparative exercise is undertaken in the proceeding chapter against our recent town centre survey. In summary however, the 1997 town centre found:
• Diversity of Uses ; the town centre comprises 134 retail and related business premises with only six national multiples and a further three regional multiple operators present; the town did however have a strong service function with a number of banks, building societies, professional services etc.
• Retail Provision ; Convenience shopping dominates the town retail offer with two foodstores (Kwik Save and Co-Op) performing a strong anchor role attracting local residents to the centre; however the town’s retail offer contained a concentration of hairdressers, hot food outlets, charity shops and discount stores which gave it a very secondary character
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• Vacancies ; levels in the town centre to be average with 19 shop units unoccupied; the impact of the vacancies, whilst not excessive, was however exasperated by the low number of quality operators and marginal businesses in the area.
• Access ; public transport access to the town centre was good although pedestrian movement was compromised by concentrated vehicle movements; car park provision was found to be poorly distributed with poor directional sign-posting.
• Environment ; the historic core of the town has positive environmental attributes given its setting and attractive buildings. The quality of shop units, vacancy levels and low quality businesses was however undermined by traffic volumes (noise, pollution etc.).
4.5 In addition to recognising Padiham as a town centre in the local retail hierarchy, the study went on to identify the requirement for the Council to prepare a new strategy for the town to act as a basis to secure regeneration funding for physical and environmental improvements in order to enhance its vitality and viability.
RETAIL CAPACITY STUDY
4.6 The retail capacity study was not informed by a survey exercise and therefore the levels of expenditure retention and leakage could not be accurately quantified. However, in headline terms, the 1997 capacity assessment identified the following:
• Catchment ; a five minute drive-time isochrone was generated around Padiham town centre, broadly extending to cover Read and Simonstone to the north west, Higham to the north east and the residential areas extending southwards the M65 and beyond. The residential population within the catchment was estimated to be c. 25,700 residents.
• Expenditure ; on the basis of the estimated residential population and applying relevant expenditure per capita rates (£1,122 convenience; £1,191 comparison), the study identified a convenience and comparison expenditure pot of £28.3 million and £30.4 million respectively in the Padiham catchment.
• Existing Retail Provision ; the study estimated that existing convenience provision (Kwik Save, Co-Op and local independents) achieved a benchmark turnover of £8.9 million. Comparison provision within the town centre was turning-over at around £5.8 million.
• Expenditure Capacity ; on the basis of the assumed benchmark turnover, the capacity exercise identified significant leakage of expenditure (c. 70% food, 82% comparison) outside of Padiham to competing destinations. This was forecast to significantly grow due to forward expenditure and population growth in the catchment.
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4.7 The study identified quantitative capacity (surplus expenditure) for food retailing of approximately £3.1 million in 2001 and £3.4 million for comparison goods on the basis of expenditure clawback and resultant reductions in leakage outside the Padiham catchment.
PADIHAM TOWN CENTRE STRATEGY
4.8 A town strategy and masterplan was commissioned in late 2004 in order to underpin a bid to the North West Development Agency (NWDA) under the Market Towns Initiative (MTI) programme for funds to assist in the regeneration of Padiham town centre.
4.9 The strategy establishes a broad framework for future public and private investment in the town, providing the basis for more detailed design, masterplanning and feasibility work on identified core projects. The strategy is informed by a detailed healthcheck exercise which sought to update the 1997 town centre retail capacity study; it identified the following:
• Diversity of Uses ; the town centre comprises 126 retail premises in the town centre; this is a slight reduction on the 134 identified in the 1997 study. There were however two major foodstore multiples (Kwik Save and Co-Op 2) remaining.
• Retail Provision ; Convenience provision continues to dominate the town centre retail offer although the survey found evidence that several specialist shops (boutique clothing, wedding attire and interior design) had opened since 1997. The overall comparison retail offer was however still acknowledged as limited.
• Vacancies ; levels in the town centre had declined since 1997 with only 10 retail units vacant. The majority of vacant units were found to be located to the north of the town centre along the upper section of Burnley Road.
• Access ; whilst the town remained highly accessible by public transport, the 2005 survey found that the town continued to suffer from poor pedestrian accessibility and mobility. The road layout was seen as detracting from the wider town centre environment (public realm etc.) with pedestrian and cycle links to retail areas poorly defined or sign-posted.
• Environment ; the study continued to recognise the existing significant physical assets of the town in terms of its setting and local buildings. The study did however identify a continued lack of investment in the town since the 1997 study with older, smaller retail units towards the northern part of the town centre significantly detracting from the wider physical environment.
2 Kwik Save ultimately became the Co-Op store after the company took over Somerfield; the Co-Op store identified in the 2004 Town Centre Study is now operated by Tesco Express.
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4.10 The healthcheck also completed a detailed assessment of the contribution of the town centre market to Padiham in terms of the quality of its offer and footfall generation. The study found that the market was not maximising its wider potential with a limited retail offer and poor conditions. The study recognised that the longer-term viability of the market was limited without significant public subsidy and intervention. The market closed in 2007 and the feasibility of re-establishing the market is considered later in this report.
4.11 In terms of the wider Town Centre Strategy and Action Plan, the study identified the following main objectives, based on an extensive consultation exercise with local stakeholders:
• Viable Town Centre Market ; retaining the function of the market was identified as an important aspect in promoting the historic appeal of Padiham and sustaining the wider vitality of the town centre (footfall generation, linked trips etc.).
• Specialist and High Quality Shopping ; acknowledging that the town cannot compete with larger centres, the study recommended to qualitatively distinguish the town centre retail offer to promote Padiham as a niche specialist destination. Diversifying the evening economy and wider leisure offer was also recommended in order to improve dwell times within the town centre and broaden its appeal.
• Safe and Attractive Shopping Environment ; the study identified three specific objectives relating to reducing the severance caused by high numbers of vehicle movements through the town centre; improving the general pedestrian environment; and enhancing the occupancy and condition of key or under-utilised retail buildings.
• Improving Accessibility through new signage for pedestrians and car users to capture passing trade more effectively. Pedestrian accessibility in the town centre is recommended to be significantly enhanced in addition to increasing parking capacity.
• Community Amenity ; the study highlights the significant leisure and cultural opportunities in Padiham provided by the existing leisure centre, town hall and Gawthorpe Hall. Business support uses within the town hall was identified as an important regeneration aim.
• Historic Character ; capitalising on the existing town centre assets through managing the existing concentration of town centre uses, promoting shop front renewal and active renewal of small or vacant shops. Complementary public realm works (i.e. quality paving etc.) were also encouraged in order to further enhance existing historic assets.
4.12 The strategic aims and overall vision articulated for Padiham through the 2005 town centre study informed the initial Area Action Plan (AAP) issues and options development.
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BURNLEY RETAIL AND LEISURE STUDY
4.13 The Borough Council commissioned independent consultants in October 2005 to prepare a detailed borough-wide retail and leisure needs study to assist in the formulation of retail policies for inclusion in the forward LDF process. The study sought to assess the quantitative capacity for new retail provision as well identifying qualitative deficiencies. In accordance with best practice, it was informed by household telephone and in-centre shopper surveys.
4.14 However, given that the study primarily focused on Burnley and its sub-regional role in the wider East Lancashire area, there is limited quantitative or qualitative assessment of Padiham (i.e. in-centre shopper surveys only completed in Burnley town centre). The main findings of the borough-wide retail study in respect of Padiham are however as follows:
• Padiham is located in a wider Burnley West catchment zone which covers the town and the residential areas to the north of the M65; the catchment does however significantly extend to the south of the M65 thereby diluting the town’s market share performance (i.e. lower market share as drawing from wider catchment).
• Overall, the town claims 0.1% main food and 0.5% top-up food market shares from the borough-wide catchment; the majority of local residents look towards mainstream foodstore provision in Burnley (i.e. Tesco Extra) to meet their main shopping needs.
• The town specifically secures a 0.5% main food market share from the Burnley West catchment and a 2.5% top-up food market share; this equates to an overall survey- derived turnover of £1.5 million, indicating that the town performs a minor ancillary role.
• The town was not identified as a primary shopping destination by local residents in the borough-wide catchment for high street comparison (non-bulky) goods; only 0.2% of residents consider Padiham to be their secondary comparison shopping destination.
• Padiham performs slightly better for bulky (durable) comparison goods, securing a 0.6% overall market share from the borough-wide catchment. The town specifically retains 2.3% of bulky goods spend arising within the Burnley West catchment.
• The town commands an overall (high street and bulky durable goods) survey-derived comparison turnover of just £1.3 million.
4.15 Overall, the study concluded in respect to Burnley that there was no requirement to identify additional sites for new food or comparison retail development in the short to medium term of the LDF. Any future need will be identified through a future update to the study.
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5. HEALTHCHECK ASSESSMENT
5.1 A health-check exercise has been undertaken for Padiham town centre, drawing on all the performance indicators set out within PPS4. This review informs the wider retail need assessment, particularly highlighting the existing qualitative strengths and deficiencies.
5.2 We have utilised Experian Goad reports, updated where appropriate, to enable a comparative assessment of the composition and performance of Padiham town centre to be undertaken against regional trends and also the findings of the Padiham Town Centre Strategy 3 in order to draw a comparative analysis.
A) DIVERSITY OF USES
5.3 The table below details the quantum and composition of the floorspace within Padiham town centre. The North West average calculated by Goad 4 is presented in brackets so as to enable a comparison of the town centre composition against regional trends data.
Retail Sector Floorspace (m 2) % Floorspace 5 No. of Units % Units Convenience 2,940 16.93% 13 9.56% (12.76%) (7.50%) Comparison 2,934 16.89% 29 21.32% (29.44%) (29.04%) Service 8,191 47.18% 72 52.94% (37.46%) (35.55%) Vacant 1,940 11.18% 19 13.97% (9.32%) (12.08%) Miscellaneous 1,357 7.82% 3 2.21% (11.02%) (15.83%)
TOTAL 17,362 136
5.4 In comparing the town centre floorspace composition against the regional average derived from Experian Goad, it is notable that:
• The quantum of floorspace dedicated to convenience use is greater than the regional average (16.9% / 12.8%); this figure is largely attributable to Padiham’s main foodstores, Tesco Express and Co-op, along with a number of local independents (butchers, greengrocers etc.). The 2005 Strategy healthcheck only identified 7.1% of town centre units being occupied by grocery retailers.
3 Hereafter the ‘2005 Strategy’ 4 Experian Category Centre Report (2009) – GVA Update 5 Goad North West Average provided in brackets for comparative purposes
January 2010 18 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
• The proportion of comparison floorspace in Padiham is significantly below the Goad regional average (16.9% / 29.4%) highlighting the limited comparison retail offer in the town (there are no national comparison multiples). The 2005 Strategy identified that high street and bulky durable comparison retailers occupied 14.3% of total outlets thereby suggesting a slight decrease.
• The quantum of service floorspace is significantly higher than the regional average (47.2% / 37.5%); this is attributable to both the limited comparison retail offer and the high proportion of units occupied by non-retail services including hairdressers and hot food takeaway outlets. This compares to 40.3% in 2005.
• The proportion of vacant floorspace within the town centre (11.2%) is slightly above the Goad regional average (9.3%); the number of units is also slightly above the regional average suggesting that existing vacancies are focused on smaller units in the town centre. The proportion of vacant floorspace is slightly less than the 12.6% vacancy rate identified in the 2005 Strategy healthcheck.
B) RETAILER REPRESENTATION
5.5 Padiham town centre is poorly represented by national multiple retailers; this has consistently been found through both the 1997 and 2005 town centre studies. In terms of current retailer representation, there is only one key multiple retail attractor (Tesco Express) identified by Experian Goad as being located within the town centre.
5.6 Whilst Co-Op is an important convenience anchor and attraction for the town centre, the overall lack of retail representation may be attributable to the small catchment that Padiham serves its proximity to Burnley town centre and the preference of multiple retailers for a location in the larger centres in the retail hierarchy. Padiham does however have several national service multiples including Blockbuster Video, Lloyds Pharmacy and Threshers. This is in addition to a strong independent retail offer which was identified in the 2005 Strategy as a key asset to qualitatively distinguish Padiham from competing mainstream centres.
C) RETAILER / FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENTS
5.7 The independent commercial property database Focus does not hold any records of published retailer requirements for representation in Padiham. However, following discussions with both the GVA retail agency team and local commercial property agents in the East Lancashire area, it is understood that there are no current retailer requirements. This may simply be due to a lack of stated demand or the lack of potential sites and the proximity
January 2010 19 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
of the town to larger centres. Either way, existing vacant units in the town are understood to be particularly difficult to let given the current economic climate.
D) RENTAL LEVELS
5.8 The limited retail offer and the lack of transactions within Padiham town centre mean that the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) does not publish any commercial yield or rental data for Padiham town centre.
5.9 Local commercial property agents confirm however that (subject to unit size) rental levels in the region of £60-70 per week are achieved for ground floor retail units within the primary shopping area along Burnley Road.
E) COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
5.10 It is possible to show the movement of Padiham over time relative to other centres within the sub-regional retail hierarchy by drawing upon the results of the Venue Score Ranking Index 6. The Index is based on the total number of national non-food / comparison retail multiples located in a centre. The findings for Padiham relative to competing centres are set out below.
Centre 2005 Rank 2006 Rank 2007 Rank 2008 Rank 2009 Rank Movement Padiham - 1,818 1827 1,826 1,992 - 174 Accrington 303 291 307 307 298 + 5 Blackburn 117 124 134 134 168 - 51 Burnley 129 120 121 121 132 - 3 Clitheroe 732 820 782 782 900 - 168 Colne 1,222 1,290 1540 1,540 1,754 - 532 Nelson 605 593 677 677 878 - 273
5.11 In comparison to other competing centres within the retail hierarchy, Padiham is currently ranked the lowest (1,992), which reflects its extremely limited town centre comparison retail offer. The decrease in ranking performance between 2008 and the present year (-166) may be attributable in part to current economic conditions and also the relative improvement of other centres ranked close to Padiham in the ranking index. The overall ranking assessment results suggest that there is significant scope for improvement in the town’s retail offer.
F) ACCESSIBILITY
5.12 As highlighted through both the 1997 and 2005 town centre studies, Padiham is well served by public transport with frequent bus services to Burnley and surrounding centres in East
6 Venue Score Ranking Index is prepared by the Javelin Group
January 2010 20 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
Lancashire; this is both positive for the town centre and also negative given that local residents can readily travel outside of the town for their main shopping needs.
5.13 In terms of wider accessibility, the town centre continues in our view to suffer from poor pedestrian accessibility with little evidence of change since the previous study was undertaken. The town continues to have poor, narrow pavements with a lack of crossing facilities. The A671 Burnley Road also continues to be used as a major through-route with high volumes of traffic; the need to reduce road congestion scored highly in the survey of retailers in the town (set out later in the report).
5.14 With respect to car parking capacity, despite its potential to attract passing trade, the existing car parks are not visible from the main thoroughfare or well sign-posted. Whilst no data is available for car park capacity or use, our on-site observations would suggest that the current level of parking provision appears to satisfy existing demand in the town centre.
G) PERCEPTION OF SAFETY
5.15 Crime mapping provided by Safer Lancashire indicates that overall crime levels within the Gawthorpe ward (i.e. Padiham) have increased by 6.4% over the past year; this overall crime level is lower than the average for the Burnley. Incidents of anti-social behaviour have however decreased by 3% over the past year, although the rate of incidents remains higher than Borough or County averages.
H) QUALITY OF THE TOWN CENTRE ENVIRONMENT
5.16 The historic town centre environment is recognised as a significant asset to Padiham. However, despite several historic buildings and facades, the town centre environment is undermined by a poor quality public realm, poorly maintained shop fronts and a lack of cleanliness. Improvements in these areas was identified in the 2005 Strategy as key objectives in order to improve the vitality, viability and attractiveness of Padiham to local residents as an alternative shopping destination.
5.17 The declining quality of the town centre environment is well recognised by local businesses and residents alike with the Retailer Business Survey and the In-Centre Shopper Survey identifying improving the town centre environment as a key priority.
5.18 The opportunities to enhance the town centre environment, the majority of which is located within a designated conservation area, should be encouraged in accordance with previous advice set out in the 1997 and 2005 town centre studies.
January 2010 21 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
I) PEDESTRIAN FLOWS
5.19 A detailed footfall assessment was completed at agreed survey locations within the town centre during three days in September 2009. The footfall surveys lasted for five minutes per survey location and continuous circuits of the town centre was completed between 10am and 5pm over the respective survey days. A plan showing the pedestrian footfall locations is provided at Appendix 6 for reference.
17 th 18 th 19 th Total Location September September September Count
Survey Point 1; Chapel Walk - Church Street Junction 14 18 7 39
Survey Point 2; Half way down Mill Street 15 37 26 78
Survey Point 3; Morley Street - Burnley Road Junction 135 85 83 303
Survey Point 4; Before Hapton Street - Burnley Road Junction 68 67 36 171
Survey Point 5; Ribble Street - Burnley Road Junction 96 141 68 305
Survey Point 6; Darwen Street - Burnley Road Junction, 51 55 58 164
Survey Point 7; Mill Street, Church Street, Burnley Road 33 51 15 99
Survey Point 8; Ightenhill Street - Burnley Road Junction 18 45 11 74 TOTAL 430 499 304 1233
5.20 As the table highlights, the highest levels of pedestrian footfall were recorded at the junction between Ribble Street and Burnley Road (305 people over the three days, peaking on Friday) and also the junction between Morley Street and Burnley Road junction (303 people over the three days, peaking on Thursday). These findings are unsurprising given that the prominent survey locations between the existing town centre car parks and local shops and services.
5.21 The level of footfall recorded at the Hapton Street and Burnley Road and Darwen Street and Burnley Road junctions were also high (171 and 164 respectively). Meanwhile, the lowest level of footfall within the town centre was recorded at the westerly end of Church Street (Chapel Walk junction) with only 39 people were recorded over the three days. These low footfall findings reflect both the concentration of vacant units.
5.22 In terms of the distinction between weekday and weekend pedestrian footfall movements, the surveys do not indicate any significant difference.
January 2010 22 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
6. IN-CENTRE SHOPPER SURVEY
6.1 In order to inform our wider qualitative review and to enable the preparation of an appropriate forward strategy for Padiham town centre, a total of 60 in-centre shopper surveys were undertaken in September 2009. As detailed in the introduction to the report, the shopper surveys were commissioned in order to establish:
• The profile of visitors and shoppers to the town centre;
• Views on the strengths and weaknesses of the town centre, including suggested qualitative improvements;
• Patterns of usage (i.e. frequency of visits, modal split, dwell times); and
• Opinions of accessibility, environmental quality and perceptions of safety.
6.2 The surveys were spread across several days in order to capture a wide cross-section of regular town centre users and visitors.
A) MAIN PURPOSE OF VISIT
6.3 When asked what their primary reason was for visiting Padiham town centre, most respondents confirmed that they visited to shop for food and groceries (38.3%). Other primary reasons cited included visiting a pub, café or restaurant and for leisure purposes (8.3% each). With regards to primary visits for leisure purposes, the survey shows that a higher proportion of women visit the town centre (9.5%) compared to men (5.6%).
Main Purpose of Visit
Work here
Leisure / recreation
Visiting bank / building society
Primary reason Visiting pub / café / restaurant Secondary reason
Shopping for DIY / electricals
Shopping for clothes / shoes
Shopping for food and groceries
0 10 20 30 40 50 Percentage of Responses
January 2010 23 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
6.4 In terms of what else respondents would be doing in the town centre during their trip, just over one quarter of respondents (27.3%) would be shopping for food and groceries with a further 25.5% visiting pubs, cafes or restaurants.
6.5 A further 29.1% of those interviewed stated that they would not be doing anything else beyond the primary purpose of their visit to Padiham town centre. This high level of response indicates that dwell time within the town centre is limited and that few respondents are undertaking linked trips.
B) MODE OF TRAVEL
6.6 In terms of how respondents travel to the town centre, the survey results highlight that Padiham serves a localised catchment with over half of respondents (56.7%) walking into the town centre. Despite the good public transport accessibility only 6.7% of respondents travelled to the town centre by bus; this compares to 35% who travelled by private car.
6.7 The majority of respondents who walked to Padiham town centre were over 55 years of age (68.2%). The ‘middle aged’ (i.e. 35-54 year olds) were found by the survey to be the most likely to travel by bus to the town centre (8.3%).
Mode of Travel
32%
Car / van (as driver) Car / van (as passenger) Bus 58% Walk
3%
7%
C) CAR PARKING
6.8 In terms of those respondents who travelled to Padiham town centre by car, most parked in the Thompson Street car park (33.3%), followed by the Town Hall car park (14.3%) and Station Road (4.8%).
January 2010 24 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
D) JOURNEY TIME
6.9 Most respondents’ (50%) journey to the town centre took between 11 and 20 minutes, reflecting the relatively discrete catchment which Padiham serves. As the table below highlights, the number of journeys taking longer than 20 minutes is relatively limited and is attributable in our view to travel to work patterns (i.e. Shuttleworth Mead Business Park) rather than the town centre being a major attraction in its own right.
Journey Time
60
50
40
30 Percentage 20
10
0 0-10 mins 11-20 mins 21-30 mins 31-45 mins
E) DWELL TIME
6.10 In terms of how long respondents intended to stay in the town centre, the shopper survey found that whilst most respondents (48.3%) intended to stay for between 1 and 2 hours
Dwell Time
100%
90%
80%
70% 4 hours + 60% 2-3 hours 50% 1-2 hours 31-60 mins 40% 0-30 mins 30%
of Responses Percentage 20%
10%
0% Male Female 16-34 35-54 55+
January 2010 25 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
The second most popular response for dwell time was less than 30 minutes (21.7% overall) which reflects the relatively limited offer in the town centre at present. In terms of the time intended to stay by male or female visitors, the survey results indicate that overall, more women (14.3%) intended to stay in the town centre for between 2 and 3 hours in comparison to men; this suggests potentially a greater propensity of women to combine their shopping trip with leisure activities in the town centre.
F) FREQUENCY OF SHOPPING VISITS
6.11 The table below shows how often respondents visit Padiham town centre. Most respondents interviewed (41.7%) visited the town centre everyday, suggesting that Padiham primarily functions a local ‘top up’ shopping destination. This response was largely attributable to those from the ‘older’ generation (45.5%).
Frequency of Visits
Once a week
2 to 3 times a week 55+ 35-54 16-34 4 to 6 times a week
Everyday
0 10 20 30 40 50 Percentage
6.12 A further 21.7% of respondents interviewed stated that they visit the town centre 2 to 3 times a week, whilst 15% usually visit the town centre between 4 to 6 times per week. This again highlights the principal top-up function of the town in the retail hierarchy.
G) FREQUENCY OF EVENING VISITS
6.13 In terms of how often respondents visited Padiham town centre in the evening, the majority of those interviewed (68.3%) never visited the town centre in the evening; the majority of those never visiting being women (76.2%).
January 2010 26 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
6.14 This relatively low level of visits to the town centre in the evening reflects, with the exception of the town’s leisure centre, the traditional pub / bar orientated evening economy offer with limited family orientated activities.
6.15 The table below presents the frequency of evening visits by age and demographics; it is clear that there is a general correlation in frequency of evening visits amongst age groups, although the ‘middle aged’ are most likely to never visit Padiham town centre in the evening (75%). Moreover, the ‘younger’ generation is most likely to visit 2 to 3 times a week in the evening.
Frequency of Visits - Evening
80
70
60
50 16-34 40 35-54 55+
Percentage 30
20
10 0 2-3 times a Once a week Once a month Less than once Never week a month
H) EVENING LEISURE FACILITIES
6.16 When asked which facilities they used in Padiham town centre in the evening, the traditional nature of the current leisure offer is reflected in the fact that most respondents (42.1%) visit local bars or public houses. The second highest reason for visiting the town centre in the evening was the leisure centre (31.6%). A small number of respondents visited in the evening for shopping or visiting a local restaurant.
Facilities Used in the Evening
60
50
40
Male 30 Female Percentage 20
10
0 Local bar / Local Shopping Leisure centre Town Hall public house restaurant
January 2010 27 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
6.17 Unsurprisingly given the nature of the evening economy offer, the survey results highlight that men are most likely (55.6%) to undertake evening visits to a bar / public house within the town centre (compared to 30% of women).
6.18 With regards to survey results on a demographic basis, a substantial proportion of the ‘younger’ generation (60%) visit Padiham town centre in the evening to socialise whilst responses from the ‘older’ generation suggest that they were more likely to use the leisure centre or go shopping (37.5% for each response).
I) EXPENDITURE
6.19 When asked as to how much respondents thought they were going to spend during their visit to the town centre, the survey found that the most respondents (23.6%) expected to spend between £21 and £30. The next most popular responses for between £0-£5 and £11-£20 (each 18.2% overall) which highlights the principal top-up role that existing retail provision in the town centre performs.
Expenditure
30
25
20
ABC1 15 C2DE
Percentage 10
5
0 £0-5 £6-10 £11-20 £21-30 £31-40 £41-50 £61-70 £91-100
6.20 The table above highlights that both working (C2DE) and professional classes (ABC1) spend little in Padiham town centre; the minor numbers spending beyond £40 is possibly attributable to the lack of a full range, mainstream foodstore in the town with respondents travelling to competing provision to undertake their main bulk food (weekly or monthly) shop.
January 2010 28 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
J) SHOPPING DESTINATIONS
6.21 When asked which places they visit most frequently for shopping, the majority of respondents (60%) cited Burnley with Padiham town centre only being the second most popular destination (18.3% of responses). There is however a notable difference in town centre patronage with finer grain analysis of the survey results indicating that 76.9% of the ‘younger’ generation (16- 34 years) frequently visit Burnley town centre for shopping, whilst some 40.9% of the ‘older’ generation (over 55 years) responded with Padiham town centre.
Shopping Destinations
7% 19% 5%
Accrington Town Centre 5% Blackburn Town Centre Burnley Town Centre Clitheroe Town Centre Padiham Town Centre
64%
6.22 When respondents were asked to state their secondary choice of shopping destination, Burnley (23.3%) and Blackburn (20%) were popular responses.
K) REASON FOR VISITING SHOPPING DESTINATIONS
6.23 When asked why they visited Padiham town centre for most of their shopping, the significant majority of respondents (81.8%) cited proximity to home, followed by easy to visit (27.3%). Good public transport links, pleasant shopping environment, to support local businesses and to visit specific shops each attained 18.2% of responses.
6.24 In terms of the main reasons for visiting alternative shopping destinations such as Burnley or Blackburn, given the current quantitative and qualitative deficiencies in the town centre retail offer, it is unsurprising that the table below highlights that most respondents visited due to the good selection / quality of shops (20.4%), good mix of shopping and leisure facilities (10.2%) and a bigger supermarket (8.2%).
January 2010 29 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
Reasons for Visiting Other Centre
Bigger supermarket
Cheaper
Visit the market
Good mix of shopping & leisure facilities
Good selection / quality of shops
Close to work
Close to home
0 5 10 15 20 25 Percentage
M) SUGGESTED QUALITATIVE IMPROVEMENTS
6.25 The improvements to the town centre that would persuade respondents to visit more regularly are important in formulating appropriate policy and town centre strategy responses. The table below sets out respondents’ suggested qualitative improvements to the quality and range of facilities in Padiham town centre.
Improvements to Padiham
Improve the market
Reopen the empty shops
M ore provision for kids/teenagers
Clothes/shoe shops
Environmental improvements
Longer shop opening hours
M ore events Primary Improve the cleanliness of the streets Secondary M ore department/larger stores
Provide partiular leisure facility
M ore/better restaurants and cafes
Provide better range of shops
M ore shops
Provide more parking
M ake the centre easier to get to by walking & cycling
0 5 10 15 20 Percentage
January 2010 30 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
6.26 As the table highlights, the most popular primary response which would persuade respondents to visit more often was the provision of department / larger stores (13.3%), closely followed by improving e the cleanliness of the streets (11.7%). Other notable suggestions (5% each) included a new market improve the market, improving the choice and quality of better restaurants and cafés in the town centre as well as providing a better range of shops and provide more car parking.
6.27 After their primary suggested improvement, the most noted secondary response related to improving the cleanliness of the streets (18.3%), followed by new department / larger stores (11.7%) and more clothes shops and provide better range of shops (5% each).
6.28 Finer grain analysis of the survey results do however indicate that there are clear demographic variations within the most suggested responses with 22.2% of men stating that improving the cleanliness of the streets would make the greatest improvement whilst most women suggested improving the range of shops.
KEY FINDINGS
6.29 The key messages arising from the in-centre shopper survey exercise are summarised below:
• Padiham has a localised catchment characterised by short journey times and a large number of respondents travelling to the town centre on foot.
• The town has a limited dwell time, reflecting current deficiencies in the town’s retail and leisure offer.
• The town predominantly performs a top-up shopping function with a high number of respondents visiting on a daily basis but spending small amounts (36.4% spending up to £20 in total).
• Most respondents, particularly the younger generation (15 to 34 years), predominantly look towards nearby larger centres such as Burnley to meet their main shopping needs due to the enhanced offer (selection and quality of multiple shops).
• The town has a limited leisure offer with a significant majority of respondents not visiting the town centre in the evening; this reflects the present pub-based offer.
• The main suggested improvements relate to enhancing the retail offer in the town centre through the attraction of national multiples. Public realm and effective town centre management (street cleaning etc.) are however prominent suggestions.
January 2010 31 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
7. RETAILER BUSINESS SURVEY
7.1 Whilst the in-centre shopper surveys are important in confirming local residents and visitors existing perceptions and suggested improvements for the town centre, it is also important in developing a robust town centre strategy to understand the performance and requirements of existing local businesses.
7.2 A detailed business survey was circulated to retailers in Padiham town centre in order understand current performance and future intentions for representation, the relative strengths and weaknesses of the town centre and specific initiatives that could improve the vitality and viability of the town centre as a primary shopping destination.
7.3 A total of 80 Business Surveys were distributed to a mix of national and independent retail and service operators within Padiham town centre in mid September 2009; a total of 28 survey responses were received. A copy of the survey template is provided at Appendix 5. A summary of the main findings is set out below.
1) TYPE OF BUSINESS
7.4 With respect to the types of businesses within Padiham town centre, just over half (54%) of the traders who responded to the survey were retail related. A further 14% were café, restaurant or pub operators whilst 11% were professional services (financial and legal).
2) LENGTH OF TRADING TIME
7.5 The retailer survey results indicate that the majority of businesses (72%) within Padiham have traded from their current premises for over 5 years.
7% 4% 21% 1-2 years 3-5 years 6-10 years 10-20 years 4% Over 20 years 46% No response 18%
January 2010 32 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
7.6 However, in terms of how long retailers have actually traded from the town centre itself, the survey results find that almost half (46%) have traded for over 20 years, indicating a low level of business turnover in the town centre. Given the current economic conditions and limitations on new small business start-ups at present, it is unsurprising that only 4% of the retail businesses in Padiham had begun trading in the last 1-2 years. The survey results also confirm that the majority of respondents (75%) traded from Padiham with no other premises.
2) CURRENT UNIT REQUIREMENTS
7.7 In terms of whether local businesses are satisfied with their current premises, the chart below confirms that the majority of respondents (96.4%) are satisfied with regards to their trading location within the town centre. Only one respondent confirmed that their existing unit did not meet their current requirements in terms of floorspace size and format.
30
25
20
Yes 15 No
10 Number Number of Responses
5
0 Location within the town centre Floorspace size and format
3) OWNERSHIP
7.8 With regards to the current ownership status, given the length of time that the majority of retailers had traded from the town centre, it is unsurprising that the majority of business premises are owner occupied (64%) with only one quarter of premises leased.
4) CURRENT TRADING PERFORMANCE
7.9 Whilst a quarter of business considered that they were trading well, the survey results found that almost half of businesses (46%) were trading moderately and a further 20% trading poorly; these responses generally reflect the difficult trading conditions faced by smaller independent operators in the current economic climate
January 2010 33 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
7.10 With respect to turnover performance over the past twelve months, the survey results further highlight the current difficulties facing independent operators with almost half (46%) of businesses indicating that their turnover over the past 12 months had decreased.
5) EXISTING AND FUTURE TRADING HOURS
7.11 The survey results indicate that the majority of businesses (57%) only open on Saturday at the weekend. Whilst a further 21% open on both days, just over one quarter (18%) do not open during the weekend at all.
7.12 In terms of future trading hours, outside of extended hours for seasonal shopping, the majority of businesses (86%) envisage continuing with their present opening hours. A small number of businesses were however proposing to close on Sunday’s given current trading conditions.
6) EXISTING AND FUTURE STAFF NUMBERS
7.13 The chart below illustrates staff numbers across the businesses which responded to the survey. The number of businesses with low staff numbers reflects the small and independent nature of most of the shops and businesses within Padiham town centre.
14
12
10
8 Full time staff Part time staff 6
4
2
0 0 staff 1-2 staff 3-5 staff 6-9 staff No response
7.14 When asked as to whether local businesses anticipated staff changes in the near future, only five respondents confirmed that they would potentially look at reducing staff numbers; this reflects the fact that the majority of shops in the town centre are run by self-employed owners.
January 2010 34 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
7) TOWN CENTRE PERCEPTIONS
7.15 Local businesses were asked to rate the current quality of the town centre against a variety of indicators including the range of services, environmental quality, public transport accessibility, car parking availability, perception of security and leisure provision.
7.16 The table below highlights that local businesses consider that there is significant scope to improve the town centre with private car access, quality of shops and car parking locations considered to be the main focus for improvements in Padiham town centre.
100% 90% 80% 70% very good 60% good 50% moderate 40% poor 30% very poor 20% 10% 0%
s s ity y on ces ton ing u l it ss ion bility a r e is isi vi a c rk u cc v v er shop il o qua c s l pa by b l a f of r ta r pro y ng lity pro o ki ca i en nd se ca ing e g ava r y and security a te ing k ualit n a y a k n q ta ssib nm ty n ri rang -s ro riv d ar p ce i p / r parki c ac nv safet safe g/dri a e e in ting c f long e t a im e -t ity o g l daytim ht me ea in bi ig ti n ila n a ay ve v d e a
7.17 In terms of positive features relating to the town centre, a significant number of local businesses identified accessibility by bus (46%), availability of long-stay car parking (21%) and daytime safety and security (17%).
8) MAIN TOWN CENTRE LIKES
7.18 When asked to identify positive features about Padiham, the main ‘likes’ identified by local businesses related to historic character and buildings (19 responses) of the town centre, its independent retail offer (18 responses) and also its good accessibility by public transport. A summary of the main town centre likes is summarised in the table below.
January 2010 35 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
Other
Accessibility by public transport / w alking / cycling
Good / safe parking provision
Cleanliness of centre
Provision of independent retailers
Mix of retailers
Size and compactness of centre
Historic buildings and character
Environment and landscaping
0 5 10 15 20 Number of Responses
9) MAIN TOWN CENTRE ISSUES
7.19 As the table below indicates, most businesses in Padiham identify vacant premises (27 responses), crime and anti-social behaviour (14 responses) and competition from nearby larger centres (14 responses) as the main issues facing the town centre. Other notable responses included the limited range of national multiple retailers / major shops and the general appearance and environment of the town centre.
Other
General appearance and environment of tow n centre
High business rates
Crime / anti-social behaviour and secuirty issues
Improving pedestrian environment through tow n centre
Vacant premises
Concentration of charity shops
Mix of shops and other facilities (cafes / estate agents)
Limited range of independent / niche retailers
Limited range of national multiple retailers / major shops
Accessibility by public transport / w alking / cycling
Car parking
Competeing centres
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Number of Responses
10) SUGGESTED TOWN CENTRE IMPROVEMENTS
7.20 On the basis of their existing views, local businesses were asked to suggest a series of improvements in relation to retailing, transport, leisure and the physical environment that would enhance the vitality and viability of Padiham town centre.
January 2010 36 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
RETAIL
7.21 In terms of suggested improvements to the existing retail offer in Padiham, a significant number of local businesses (18 responses) considered that improving existing shopping facilities and re-establishing the town centre market (17 responses) would improve town centre performance. As the chart below highlights, a further 12 respondents cited the need to improve the range of independent or specialist shops as the main suggested improvement.
Other
Encourage reduced price shops
Attract larger retailers
New or re-instated market
Improve range of independent / specialist shops
Improve choice of multiple shops
Refurbish / improve existing shopping facilities
Develop new shopping facilities
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Number of Responses
TRANSPORT
7.22 As Padiham is well served by public transport, the main improvements suggested by local businesses related to improving car park capacity in the town centre and reducing road congestion through limiting HGV access. Improving signage and pedestrian safety also received a prominent number of responses.
Provide shop mobility service
Improve location of bus stops / bus station
Improve directional signs to tow n centre
Reduce road congestion
Increase frequency of public transport - evening
Increase frequency of public transport - daytime
Manage car parks to encourage short stay parking and discourage all day parking
More parking spaces / improve car park layout
Improve safety of pedestrians / more pedestrianisation
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Number of Responses
January 2010 37 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
LEISURE
7.23 Padiham has a relatively limited leisure offer which is focused around traditional pubs and bars. The main improvements suggested by local businesses are to improve the range of places to eat, improving existing local parks and play areas for children and reducing the concentration of pubs in the town centre.
Improve local parks
Improved play areas for children
New festivals or other cultrual events
New / improved theatre
Improved restaurants / range of places to eat
Less pubs and clubs
Improved range of pubs / bars
Enhance range of health and fitness / leisure centres
New ten-pin bow ling centre
New bingo facility
New cinema
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Number of Responses
ENVIRONMENT
7.24 With respect to town centre environment, as the table below highlights, most local businesses identify improving the cleanliness of the town centre shopping streets as a key improvement in addition to improving security, enhancing the public realm (street furniture and floral displays) and pedestrian access.
Other
Improve directional signage within town centre
Attract more people / make more lively
Improve street furniture / floral displays
Improve policing / other security measures
Improve quality of pedestrian areas / public realm
Clean shopping streets
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Number of Responses
January 2010 38 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
8. TOWN CENTRE MARKET FEASIBILITY
8.1 Markets contribute significantly to the vitality of a town as they attract visitors, increase footfall and serve the needs of local residents, businesses and producers within the catchment area of the centre. Attractive and successful markets can act as a hub for the local community and a gateway for tourism by selling local produce and goods.
8.2 Nationally however, traditional town centre markets are facing significant competition from the major expansion of discount retailers and supermarkets that can compete with markets on product ranges, quality of goods and importantly price. The level of mainstream retail competition which has grown significantly over the past decade and has undermined the strong position traditional markets once held.
8.3 The town centre market in Padiham is one such market which has faced significant competition over the past decade until it was closed on economic viability grounds by the Borough Council in 2007. This section therefore assesses the feasibility of re-establishing the market through reference to the comprehensive survey evidence base commissioned to inform the wider study exercise and with regard to local and national market trading conditions. We have also consulted with the Borough Council and existing traders in nearby markets to understand current trading conditions and support for the re-instatement of the town centre market in Padiham.
PADIHAM MARKET CONTEXT
8.4 Padiham Market was established by the Borough Council in the 1970’s and was located on a dedicated open-air site to the rear of Burnley Road along Clitheroe Street. The market comprised 48 covered market stalls at its peak and traded on a Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with the latter recognised as Padiham’s ‘market day’.
8.5 A specific investigation of Padiham Market was undertaken by the Countryside Agency in July 2004 as part of the Traditional Markets Study 7. The study found the number of active traders at the market had declined significantly from historic peak (as with other centres) with only four traders on a Wednesday, ten to fifteen traders on a Thursday and a maximum of eight traders on a Friday. The market offered a traditional range of goods including clothing, household items, fruit and vegetables, garden plants and fresh fish.
7 Countryside Agency (July 2004) – ‘The Role of Traditional Markets in Revitalising Market Towns’
January 2010 39 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
8.6 The study found that the market was in serious decline with the few stalls trading suffering from poor and falling sales. Physical constraints such as its secondary location, lack of toilet and refreshment facilities and appropriate signage were identified as contributing factors towards its decline. A shopper survey carried out as part of the study identified that the market had already lost its ‘critical mass’ and was contributing little to the wider town centre in terms of footfall generation or attracting visitors from a wider catchment.
8.7 In order to reverse the decline of the town centre market, the study identified a detailed healthcheck action plan strategy which recommended moving the location of the market and diversifying its existing offer in order to qualitatively distinguish Padiham from larger competing markets in the locality (Burnley, Accrington and Blackburn).
8.8 The Borough Council subsequently established a Working Group of the Local Economy Scrutiny Committee to review options to revitalise Padiham Market 8 in 2006. External funding was identified from the North West Development Agency (NWDA) Market Towns Initiative and a large provisional investment was made by the Council. All options, including site relocation, were fully appraised but none were found to be viable or justify further capital investment by the Borough Council. As a result of the appraisal exercise, the Working Group recommended:
• Seeking expressions of interest from private operators to run the market in Padiham;
• Withdraw the large provisional capital investment that the Council had previously earmarked for Padiham Market to sustain it; and
• Rationalise the market days in the town by closing the Wednesday and Friday markets in order to concentrate existing traders on the Thursday market.
8.9 The market days in the town centre were accordingly rationalised and having unsuccessfully sought expressions of interest from private operators to run the town centre market, the Council ultimately closed the market in 2007 and has subsequently sought alternative uses for the market site. It should however be noted that the second hand market held on Thursday was moved into the former Town Hall and is now managed by Padiham Town Council.
CONSULTATION RESPONSES
8.10 The financial viability of supporting a town centre market in Padiham has been subject to detailed assessment by the Borough Council prior to the ultimate closure of the market in 2007. Our feasibility assessment is therefore informed by consultation with local residents
8 PADIHAM MARKET- Working Group Review, Burnley Borough Council, February 2007
January 2010 40 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
and businesses, existing market traders and the Borough Council. The headline findings of the survey-based exercise is as follows:
• LOCAL RESIDENTS ; both the in-centre shopper survey (71.7%) and household telephone survey (73.7%) identified a high level of support for re-instatement of a new market in Padiham town centre. A general market was the most popular suggested market that would persuade local residents to visit (63.7% household telephone; 88.4% in-centre shopper survey). A further 9.3% of in-centre survey respondents suggested convening a farmers market would persuade them to visit the town centre more often.
• LOCAL BUSINESSES ; the provision of a new market in the town centre is supported by a significant majority of local businesses with 86% supporting re-instatement. Three quarters (75%) of those in support of re-instating the town centre market suggested provision of a farmers market to enhance the attraction and vitality of Padiham. A high number of responses did however indicate that the town centre market would not make any material impact on their own business performance.
• MARKET TRADERS ; whilst Padiham market used to be part of a wider East Lancashire market circuit, consultation with existing market traders in surrounding centres identified very little support for market re-instatement. Given the current economic climate with declining customer and trader numbers, the majority are focusing on existing locations and have concerns that Padiham would serve too small a catchment to make representation economically viable.
• FARMERS MARKETS ; stall holders consider that there is already has an over-supply of regular Farmers Markets in Lancashire and that the forward strategy for the wider area should be on consolidation rather than expansion. As the existing number of Farmers Markets is diluting customer numbers and reducing the quality of produce, traders did not view Padiham as a particularly viable location given its proximity to Clitheroe.
8.11 Whilst there is strong local support for the re-establishment of the market in Padiham town centre, it is clear that there is less appetite from existing market traders given increasingly difficult trading conditions.
8.12 On the basis of the consultation exercise and the financial viability assessment previously undertaken by the Borough Council, we set out our forward recommendations on the feasibility on re-establishing in Padiham below.
January 2010 41 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
CONCLUSIONS
8.13 The competition facing traditional town centre markets has recently been recognised by a Communities and Local Government Committee report 9 in July 2009 which assessed the future of traditional retail markets in England. Whilst the report identifies a number of initiatives that local authorities should investigate in order to promote the role of traditional town centre markets, it also acknowledges that it may be impossible to secure the long-term viability of all local markets in a particular area.
8.14 The CLG report advocates that the best approach in certain areas is to close down non-viable markets so that resources can be directed towards sustainable markets which have a better chance of survival in the longer-term. A detailed financial assessment into the future economic prospects of Padiham Market was undertaken by the Borough Council in 2007 and declining economic conditions since the market closure make it even less economically viable in our view that a market could be successfully operated without substantial public subsidy.
8.15 We understand that for a market to be viable it needs to have between 50 and 100 stall holders and attract in the region of 8,000 to 9,000 visitors per day. Research carried out by the Council in 2005 found that Padiham was only attracting 300 to 500 visitors per day with only 20 regular traders. At its very peak in the mid 1990’s, the Council confirmed that Padiham Market was only attracting 40 regular traders.
8.16 It is clear therefore, given the relatively small catchment which Padiham serves, the competition it faces from nearby larger centres and the declining number of active traders, that a new market in Padiham would not achieve a critical mass of provision required.
8.17 In our view, the forward strategy focus for the Council should be on Burnley Market at a time of difficult trading conditions. Burnley Market has a larger catchment of existing and potential customers, a critical mass of established traders and a well maintained indoor market hall that is not exposed to the elements (unlike Padiham). Burnley Market offers and benefits from potential opportunities for linked shopping trips. Diverting public funds towards re-establishing a market in Padiham would dilute the Council’s focus on Burnley Market.
8.18 With respect to the potential for a viable farmers market in Padiham, through consultation 10 we consider that present opportunities are limited. Notwithstanding the fact that such markets traditionally require a significant level of public subsidy given that they deliver less economic
9 Communities and Local Government (July 2009) – ‘Market Failure: Can the traditional market survive?’ 10 Public sector stakeholders included Lancashire County Developments Ltd, Food Northwest and Lancashire Tourist Board
January 2010 42 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
return (i.e. stall rental levels) there are already eight regular farmers markets in operation within a 15 mile radius of Padiham.
8.19 The over-concentration of farmers markets in Lancashire has significant implications for the vitality of existing markets to the extent that Lancashire County Developments has recently commissioned a study to assess the quality of the existing farmer’s market provision across the County. The study is due for publication by the end of 2009 and will make definitive conclusions on the need for additional provision or indeed rationalisation of the existing offer.
8.20 Overall therefore, we conclude that the social, environmental and regeneration benefits that a new market in Padiham town centre would deliver are outweighed by the disproportionate economic cost required supporting it. We consider that there is no viable case for the re- establishment of a town centre market in Padiham without significant public subsidy.
January 2010 43 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
9. RETAIL CAPACITY METHODOLOGY
9.1 Our quantitative assessment adopts a conventional step-by-step methodology, drawing upon the results of the household telephone survey to understand existing shopping patterns and to model existing flows of available expenditure to the main retail destinations in and around Padiham.
9.2 Having established the baseline position, the quantitative capacity modelling exercise goes on to establish the performance of the town centre and its main stores. The methodology, data inputs and assumptions used in the capacity assessment exercise are set out below.
1) STUDY AREA DEFINITION
9.3 The study area and individual catchment zones for the study have been defined on the basis of local geography (topography, accessibility etc.) and with reference to the catchment areas defined within the borough-wide retail and leisure study (2005), which includes Padiham within a wider ‘Burnley West’ catchment zone.
January 2010 44 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
9.4 The catchment zones are defined on the basis of individual postcode sectors, so as to generate population and expenditure data from the Experian Micromarketer system. A schedule of the postcodes forming the respective catchment zones is set out on the plan provided at Appendix 1. For clarity, Zone 1 (Rural West) has been extended to include the settlement of Sabden. The population and expenditure figures for Sabden Village have been included on a bespoke basis rather than including the wider postcode to which it relates given that Sabden sits in a large postcode which extends a significant way north into Ribble Valley.
2) HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE SURVEY
9.5 The household telephone survey data is a key input into the expenditure, modelling and capacity elements of the exercise. On the basis of the defined study area and individual catchment zones, NEMS Market Research was commissioned to complete a total of 400 household telephone surveys.
9.6 The survey sought to establish household shopping habits in terms of convenience goods (main food / top-up shopping), non-bulky and bulky comparison goods expenditure. The results of the two types of food shopping questions were merged through the application of a weighting (75% main food; 25% top-up food shopping split), which reflects the estimated proportion of expenditure accounted for main (bulk) and daily top-up food shopping. This produces a composite pattern of convenience spending, enabling the identification of the market share each main centre and its main stores presently command.
9.7 With regards to comparison goods, the survey included the following categories of questions:
COMPARISON GOODS BULKY DURABLE GOODS
• Clothing, Footwear and Other Fashion Goods • Furniture, Floor Coverings and Household Textiles
• Books and Stationary Items • DIY and Decorating Goods
• Glassware, Tableware and Household Goods • Major Household Appliances (Washing Machines, Fridges and Cookers)
• Jewellery, Watches and other Personal Effects • Large Electrical Goods (TV, Hi-Fi, Radio, Photographic and Computer Equipment)
• Recreational Goods (Bicycles, Games, Toys, Sports • Garden Products and Camping Equipment and Musical Instruments)
• CDs, DVDs and Computer Games • Pets and Related Products
• Medical Goods, Therapeutic Appliances and other Pharmaceutical Products (excl. prescriptions)
• Small Domestic Appliances (personal appliances and small electrical household goods such as Kettles and Hairdryers)
January 2010 45 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
9.8 The results of all these questions were merged using weighting to reflect the amount of per capita expenditure in the identified survey zones for each of the different categories of goods. For example, as considerably more money is spent on clothing and footwear than on DIY goods, then the former goods category has a higher weighting. The weighting exercise produces a composition pattern of comparison goods spending, expressed as a market share for Padiham town centre and its principal competing destinations.
9.9 In addition, the household survey also sought to understand where people presently go to pursue their main leisure activities (cinema, eating out etc.). The survey also sought to determine customer / visitor profile, mode of travel, the attraction and a number of attitudinal questions determining what users think about the retail and leisure offer, environmental quality and their perception of safety.
3) DATA VARIABLES
Estimates of Population in the Survey Area
9.10 The population estimates and forecasts for each of the survey zones are derived from the Experian Micromarketer database. The population estimates are based on trend-line projections from the 2001 Census results and are calibrated to Local Authority District targets on the most recently available Government household and population data. The population estimates are updated annually to allow for changes in housing stock and residual population. The population growth of the survey area in the period to 2026 is set out in Table 1 of Appendices 2 – 4.
Available Expenditure in the Survey Area
Expenditure
9.11 Experian data was used to provide estimates of per capita expenditure on convenience and comparison goods in 2007 prices. Relevant deductions for special forms of trading (e.g. expenditure not available to spend in the shops 11 ) were made in accordance with the latest Experian forecasts and in-house GVA Grimley research.
9.12 Given the current uncertainty surrounding forward economic forecasts, we have modelled different growth rate scenarios so as to provide the Borough Council with a capacity range.
January 2010 46 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
• Convenience Goods ; growth rate of 0.4% per annum (2009-2016) and 1% per annum (2017-2026);
• Comparison Goods Scenario 1 (low growth) ; growth rate of 2% per annum (2009- 2016) and 3% per annum (2017-2026)
• Comparison Goods Scenario 2 (high growth) ; growth rate of 2.6% per annum (2009- 2016) and 5% per annum (2017-2026)
9.13 The adjusted expenditure figures are applied to the population forecasts to obtain the total available expenditure within each of the survey zones.
Floorspace Data
9.14 The floorspace data for the town centre is drawn from an Experian Goad survey report, updated through an on-site survey and with reference to Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) reports and the Promap database.
9.15 We have also sought to identify the proportion of any non-food floorspace within the main convenience stores in the town centre through utilising the latest published data (i.e. Verdict and Mintel ) and our own store visits.
Sales Densities
9.16 In order to review the current performance of the town centre as a retail destination and also its main stores, we have firstly modelled their existing performance and turnover through the household survey data, and secondly compared their existing turnover with estimates of trading at company average levels.
9.17 The company average trading levels have been calculated from average (goods-based) sales density figures obtained from Mintel Retail Rankings and Verdict . Where company average trading figures are not available, (i.e. for smaller local and independent retailers) we have estimated average trading levels on the basis of site visits and our experience.
9.18 In assessing the capacity for future retail floorspace we have assumed that the efficiency with which existing floorspace is being used will improve over time. Given the current uncertainty in forward growth of retail expenditure and the future performance of mainstream retailers, particularly in the comparison retail sector, we have tested quantitative capacity for comparison goods on the basis of two scenarios:
11 Experian define SFTs as expenditure that does not take place in shops, such as that via mail order houses, door to door salesmen and stalls and markets. It also includes spending using digital TV and over the Internet .
January 2010 47 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
• Comparison Goods Scenario 1 (low growth) ; sales density increase of 1.3% per annum (2009-2016) and 2% per annum (2017-2026)
• Comparison Goods Scenario 2 (high growth) ; sales density increase of 2% per annum (2009-2016) and 3% per annum (2017-2026)
9.19 Given that foodstores are anticipated to continue trading well, our assessment utilises an annual growth rate in existing sales (£ / m 2) for convenience goods of 0.1% per annum (2009- 2016) and 0.5% per annum (2017-2026). We consider these sales density increases to be conservative and robust, reflecting the nature of Padiham town centre and the present short to medium term trading / economic conditions.
4) Catchment and Baseline Capacity Review
9.20 Applying the results of the household telephone survey to population, expenditure and floorspace data inputs detailed in the previous section, it is possible to model the performance and market share of Padiham town centre and its main stores.
9.21 In accordance with the Study Brief requirements, the baseline quantitative capacity, which is generated by population and expenditure growth, is presented on several strategic dates 12 to accord with the lifespan of the Local Development Framework.
9.22 It should be noted within this context therefore that whilst our assessment identifies quantitative capacity is the period through to 2026, the capacity figures identified after 2016 should be treated with particular caution (PPS4 specifies 5 year assessment periods). Having established the baseline capacity position, we then go on to consider what may be achievable in terms of potential increases in market share and thus quantitative capacity.
5) Forward Capacity Review
9.23 In assessing the potential for market share increase, our judgement is informed by our understanding of the current performance of the town centre and its realistic catchment; the stated opinions and preferences of the catchment population; the role and function of the centres within the retail hierarchy; and emerging development proposals in competing centres.
9.24 The forward capacity exercise is undertaken on a quantitative basis and is informed by:
12 The quantitative capacity assessment identifies floorspace requirements over several strategic dates including 2009, 2012, 2016, 2018, 2021 and 2026
January 2010 48 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
1. An adjustment in existing market shares prompted by the potential for new floorspace or changes in the market share retained by a centre through the clawback of expenditure presently flowing outside the catchment.
2. The potential for a redistribution of any overtrading surplus from existing stores which are over-performing against their company benchmark turnover.
9.25 It should be noted however that the potential uplift in expenditure only represents actual capacity if retail proposals and operators that emerge can genuinely qualitatively add to the existing retail offer of a town centre by strengthening its attractiveness so to achieve the envisaged improvements in market share performance.
9.26 Any market share enhancement assessment should be viewed against the framework provided by PPS4 which states that appropriateness of scale rather than specific quantitative need is the key determinant. Therefore, should proposals emerge for the development of new retail facilities within the primary shopping area of the town centre then the application should be considered on its merits, having particular regard to the qualitative uplift that proposals could potentially achieve.
January 2010 49 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
10. CONVENIENCE RETAIL ANALYSIS
10.1 Local residents usually travel to their nearest and most accessible mainstream foodstore or town centre to undertake the main food (bulk) shopping; shoppers are unlikely to visit alternative stores unless there are deficiencies in their local convenience offer. In contrast, top-up shopping for daily perishables (milk, bread etc.) is more localised in its nature with shoppers more likely to buy daily goods from local convenience shops near to their home.
10.2 As it stands, Padiham town centre presently lacks a large mainstream foodstore with existing convenience provision limited to small Co-Op store, a free standing Tesco Express store and local independents (butchers, grocers, delicatessen etc.).
MAIN FOOD
10.3 There is a main food expenditure pot of £41.7 million arising within the Padiham catchment (zones 1 – 4). The household survey results indicate that convenience provision in the town centre presently retains £3.3 million (7.9%) of this overall main food expenditure.
10.4 In terms of the individual catchment zones, the main food market shares that existing convenience facilities in Padiham town centre secure varies significantly. The plan below shows the existing market share outflows from the immediate Padiham catchment (zone 2) which was drawn tightly around the town.
January 2010 50 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
10.5 As the plan highlights, existing convenience provision in Padiham town centre presently secures 14.7% (£2.7 million) of main food spend arising within its immediate catchment (zone 2). This retention level is predominantly attributable to the existing Co-Op store which secures an 11.3% (£2.1 million) main food market share.
10.6 It is clear in respect to the immediate Padiham catchment (zone 2) that the majority of local residents (76% / £14 million) look towards large mainstream foodstores in Burnley; the Asda store secures 37.3% (£6.9 million) of catchment spend whilst the Tesco Extra (24.7% / £4.6 million) and Sainsbury’s (5.3% / £1 million) stores also draw notable market shares. It should be noted that there are limited outflows from the immediate Padiham catchment (zone 2) to other centres outside of the Borough (i.e. Morrison’s Nelson 4.7% / £0.9 million).
10.7 In terms of the wider Padiham catchment (zones 1, 3 & 4), the household survey results indicate that a significant quantum of main food expenditure is leaking outside of the wider catchment to competing mainstream foodstore destinations in Burnley, Clitheroe and Nelson, as summarised below:
• Zone 1 Rural West – Padiham secures 4.8% (£0.5 million); Burnley is the principal destination for main food shopping with Asda securing 21.7% (£2.2 million), Tesco Extra 13.3% (£1.3 million) and Sainsbury’s 7.2% (£0.7 million) of catchment spend. Local residents also look to other centres with Tesco Clitheroe claiming 10.8% (£1.1 million), Morrison’s Nelson 9.6% (£1 million) and Asda Accrington 8.4% (£0.9 million).
• Zone 3 Burnley North – no residents from this catchment presently shop in Padiham. The majority (93.5% / £8.1 million) look towards convenience provision in Burnley town centre with Asda securing 41% (£3.6 million) of catchment spend, Tesco Extra 21.8% (£1.9 million) and Sainsbury’s 19.2% (£1.7 million).
• Zone 4 Rural East – Padiham presently secures 2.8% (£0.1 million) of catchment spend. Most local residents shop at the Morrison’s in Nelson (38% / £1.7 million). A further 35.2% (£1.6 million) shop at foodstores in Burnley (Sainsbury’s 16.9% / £0.7 million).
10.8 It is clear therefore from the household survey results that existing convenience provision in Padiham has a limited attraction with most local residents looking to larger mainstream foodstores in surrounding centres (Burnley, Clitheroe and Nelson).
TOP-UP
10.9 As detailed in the introduction, top-up food shopping is more localised in its nature and this is reflected in the household telephone survey results. The capacity modelling exercise
January 2010 51 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
identifies an overall top-up expenditure pot of £13.9 million arising within the defined catchment area (zones 1 – 4).
10.10 Existing convenience facilities in Padiham town centre presently retain £4.7 million of the overall top-up food expenditure arising within its defined catchment (zones 1-4). This is broken down as follows:
• Zone 1 Rural West – Padiham secures 35.8% (£1.2 million) of top-up spend arising (£33.4 million) in the catchment; this overall figure comprises Co-Op (17.9% / £0.6 million), Tesco Express (6% / £0.2 million) and Local Shops (11.9% / £0.4 million). Convenience provision in Burnley secures 18% (£0.6 million) of catchment spend whilst 46.2% (£1.6 million) flows to numerous stores in the surrounding locality.
• Zone 2 Padiham – the town secures 49.6% (£3.1 million) of top-up spend (£6.2 million) arising within the catchment. Co-Op is the most popular store (20.2% / £1.2 million), followed by Local Shops (17.6% / £1.1 million) and Tesco Express (11.8% / £0.7 million). Convenience provision in Burnley secures 45.2% (£2.8 million) of overall top-up spend arising within the Padiham catchment (Asda 15.1% / £0.9 million is the most popular).
• Zone 3 Burnley North – the town secures 4.5% (£0.1 million) of top-up spend (£2.9 million) arising in the catchment; the majority of local residents undertake their top-up shopping in Burnley (76.3% / £2.2 million) overall. Whilst the mainstream foodstores such as Asda secure notable market shares (11.9% / £0.3 million), most local residents visit local independent shops in the town centre (43.4% / £1.3 million).
• Zone 4 Rural East – Padiham presently secures 23.3% (£0.3 million) of top-up spend (£1.5 million) arising within the catchment; this comprises Local Shops (10% / £0.1 million), Co-Op (8.3% / £0.1 million) and Tesco Express (5% / £0.1 million). The main expenditure flows are to convenience facilities in Burnley (15.2% / £0.2 million) and the Morrison’s in Nelson (28.3% / £0.4 million).
INDIVIDUAL STORE PERFORMANCE
10.11 On the basis of the main food and top-up expenditure patterns identified through the household survey exercise, our capacity assessment identifies that the Co-Op store in Padiham town centre secures a £4.7 million survey-derived turnover; this is £1.2 million below its expected company benchmark turnover of £5.9 million. The Tesco Express store is found on the basis of the survey results to claim £1.5 million of main food and top-up expenditure in total; this is £1.9 million below its company benchmark turnover of £3.4 million.
January 2010 52 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
10.12 Local Shops in the town centre presently secure £1.8 million of the total convenience expenditure arising within the defined catchment (zones 1-4). Whilst we calculate that the benchmark turnover of local shops would be in the order of £2.4 million if based on an average sales density of £2,000 / m 2, therefore suggesting a £0.6 million undertrading position, we would stress particular caution in utilising these figures for anything other than illustrative purposes given that the benchmark sales density figure is based on a general assumption and may inflate the current trading performance.
a) Forward Position – Constant Market Share
10.13 The baseline capacity modelling exercise, assuming a constant market share and taking account of forward population, expenditure growth and trading efficiency increases, generates the following floorspace requirement:
2012 2018 2026 MEDIUM RETAILER 13 18 m2 (gross) 63 m2 (gross) 147 m2 (gross) LARGE RETAILER 14 9 m2 (gross) 30 m2 (gross) 69 m2 (gross)
10.14 The floorspace figures identified are clearly not sufficient to support any new foodstore development in Padiham through the LDF process (Area Action Plan). This capacity figure does however accept the continuing significant outflow of convenience expenditure to competing foodstores outside of the Padiham catchment and we therefore subsequently go on to consider the potential to improve existing convenience expenditure retention levels and clawback expenditure in the forward capacity exercise below.
b) Forward Capacity – Market Share Improvement
10.15 Our assessment finds that existing convenience provision within Padiham town centre presently only retains £3.3 million of the £41.7 million main food expenditure arising within its catchment; this is equivalent to 8% overall main food retention level.
10.16 It is evident from the household survey that Padiham presently operates as a secondary centre in the local retail hierarchy with the majority of local residents looking towards the main foodstore provision in Burnley and to a lesser extent Nelson, Clitheroe and Accrington to meet their main food shopping needs.
13 Medium Order / Discount Retailers considered to include Co-Op, Somerfield, Aldi, Netto and Lidl; an average sales density figure (£5,000 / m 2) is prescribed for indicative purposes only 14 The large (Top 4) convenience retailers are Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury’s and Morrison’s; average sales density figure derived from Mintel / Verdict and GVA Research
January 2010 53 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
10.17 The household survey results clearly identifies that the existing Co-Op and Tesco Express stores within the town centre are not fulfilling its role as a foodstore anchor for the town centre. This is highlighted by the town only retaining 14.7% of main food expenditure arising within its immediate catchment (zone 2) which is drawn tightly around the town.
10.18 There is a clear deficiency in the town’s convenience offer and we have therefore sought on a hypothetical basis to identify the floorspace capacity that would be generated through Padiham improving its present market share performance through the clawback of expenditure which is presently flowing to competing centres / stores. We have assumed the following main food market share enhancements could be achieved:
• Zone 1 Rural West – a new foodstore in Padiham will serve local residents in Sabden and Simonstone villages, clawing-back expenditure presently flowing to foodstores in Clitheroe and Burnley. We have therefore modelled an increase in main food market share from 4.8% to 75%.
• Zone 2 Padiham – given that the catchment around the town is draw tightly, we consider that a new centrally located mainstream foodstore in the town centre would secure a significant quantum of local residents’ main food expenditure given that it would reduce outward shopping journeys to competing centres. We have therefore modelled a main food market share increase from 14.7% to 85%.
• Zone 3 Burnley North – whilst existing convenience provision in Padiham does not presently secure any main food expenditure from the catchment zone, we consider that a new mainstream foodstore would draw some trade from the Whittlefield, Rose Grove and Ightenhill residential areas. We have therefore modelled an increase in main food market share from 0% at present to 10%.
• Zone 4 Rural East – the catchment zone is effectively split in two given the surrounding topography and accessibility; residents in the western side of the catchment (Higham village etc.) predominantly look towards Padiham and Burnley whilst residents in the eastern side of the catchment around Fence village will continue in our view to look towards mainstream foodstore provision in Nelson (Morrison’s) and Colne given proximity and access via the M65 motorway. We have therefore modelled an increase in main food market share from 2.8% at present to 50%.
10.19 The market share increases from the individual catchment zones generate an additional £20.5 million of main food expenditure which could support the following quantum of convenience floorspace in Padiham town centre:
January 2010 54 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
2012 2018 2026 MEDIUM RETAILER 5,196 m 2 (gross) 5,355 m 2 (gross) 5,654 m 2 (gross) LARGE RETAILER 2,435 m 2 (gross) 2,509 m 2 (gross) 2,649 m 2 (gross)
10.20 We consider that the floorspace capacity figures identified in our assessment should not be treated as a ‘ceiling’ as it ignores potential increases in top-up market share that a new foodstore could generate. There are also wider quantitative and qualitative benefits, including:
• Reducing the main expenditure leakage from the town’s catchment to main foodstores in competing centres; the claw-back of expenditure will derive major quantitative, qualitative and sustainability benefits by reducing the need for local residents in Padiham to travel outside of the catchment to meet their main food shopping needs.
• Increasing the propensity for local shoppers to undertake linked shopping trips within the town centre (i.e. increase spend / dwell time); a new foodstore would encourage increased footfall and secure wider economic and sustainability benefits to the town centre including ‘spin-off’ trade to sustain the wider retail and service offer.
10.21 Within this context, new mainstream foodstore provision in Padiham town centre must of a sufficient scale and quality to be able to compete on a like-for-like basis (product ranges etc.) with mainstream foodstore provision in competing centres (Asda and Tesco Extra Burnley).
10.22 Whilst therefore we identify a notional capacity for a medium order retailer such as Aldi or Lidl, it is our view that such provision would merely replicate the existing convenience offer in the town (Co-Op) and not derive the principal benefits that a mainstream foodstore could deliver nor genuinely facilitate a change in local residents existing main food shopping patterns.
10.23 A new mainstream foodstore in Padiham will only be beneficial in PPS4 terms if located in a sequentially preferable location in order to add to the vitality and viability of the existing offer. Any quantitative and qualitative benefits arising would be diminished if new provision is not well located or integrated with the existing town centre given that standalone provision could potentially allow local residents to effectively ‘bypass’ the other shops and facilities.
10.24 In accordance with recently published PPS4 guidance, we consider the positive and negative impacts of a new mainstream foodstore in Padiham town centre later in this report.
January 2010 55 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
11. COMPARISON RETAIL ANALYSIS
11.1 In contrast to convenience shopping patterns which tend to be more localised in nature, comparison shopping is destination based with shoppers prepared to travel further to undertake shopping for clothing, fashion and personal items; these sectors are therefore key drivers and the main determinants in consumers choice of destination. Expenditure is therefore more mobile and less restricted to a local catchment or particular centre.
11.2 This increased mobility has partially contributed to the relative decline in performance of smaller towns such as Padiham in the retail hierarchy as high street retailers have begun to concentrate provision within fewer, larger centres where they can benefit from critical mass of fellow retailers and higher pedestrian flows.
OVERALL COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE
11.3 There is a total of £61.4 million of comparison goods expenditure arising within the wider catchment (survey zones 1-4); most of this expenditure (£26.9 million) arises within the immediate Padiham catchment (zone 2).
11.4 The plan below shows that Padiham town centre presently secures 4.2% (£1.1 million) of all comparison goods expenditure (£26.9 million) arising within its immediate catchment (zone 2). It is clear that most Padiham residents shop in Burnley (town centre 59.1% / £15.9 million; foodstores 8.6% / £2.3 million) or Manchester (8.6% / £2.3 million).
January 2010 56 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
11.5 In terms of the wider Padiham catchment (zones 1, 3 & 4), the household survey indicate the following comparison goods market shares and expenditure flows:
• Zone 1 Rural West – Padiham secures 3.3% (£0.5 million) out of the £14.9 million comparison expenditure pot available within the catchment zone. The majority of local residents in this catchment look towards Burnley (40% / £6 million), Manchester (9.5% / £1.4 million), Accrington (6.4% / £0.9 million) or Blackburn (6.2% / £0.6 million).
• Zone 3 Burnley North – a very small number of local residents (0.6% / £0.1 million) from this catchment shop in Padiham; most look towards Burnley (town centre 53.2% / £6.9 million; foodstores 12.4% / £1.6 million) or Manchester 11.7% (£1.5 million).
• Zone 4 Rural East – only 1.7% (£0.1 million) of local residents in this catchment shop in Padiham. Burnley town centre is the principal destination (40.8% / £2.7 million), followed by Nelson (9.9% / £0.7 million), Manchester (8.7% / £0.6 million) and Boundary Mill in Colne (6.5% / £0.4 million).
11.6 Taking the individual market shares that Padiham town centre secures from the respective catchment zones, our assessment shows that the town only retains £1.8 million of all comparison goods expenditure (£61.4 million) arising within the catchment (zones 1-4) as a whole; this is equivalent to an overall 2.9% retention figure.
11.7 It is clear that the majority of local residents within the wider Padiham catchment look towards the larger centres in the retail hierarchy (Burnley and Manchester) to meet their main comparison shopping needs; this reflects the current deficiencies in the existing town centre offer and the concentration of national high street multiples in higher order centres.
INDIVIDUAL COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARES
11.8 The town secures a relatively low overall market share across the wider catchment (zones 1- 4). However, finer grain analysis of the town centre performance on both an individual catchment and also goods basis reveals some variations in market share retention levels, as set out below:
January 2010 57 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
COMPARISON TOWN CENTRE M/S FROM TOWN CENTRE M/S FROM OUTFLOWS GOODS PADIHAM CATCHMENT ADJOIN. CATCHMENTS (ZONE 2) (ZONES 1,3,4) Clothing / Fashion Padiham 0% No Inflow Burnley 53% / £4.9m Manchester 18.9% / £1.7m Boundary Mill RP 6.1% / £0.6m Personal Goods Padiham 1.1% / £0.02m Burnley North 2% / £0.02m Burnley 70.8% / £1.2m Manchester 5.6% / £0.1m Domestic Padiham 8.8% / £0.3m Rural West 7.2% / £0.2m Burnley 59.6% / £2.3m Appliances Rural East 3.1% / £0.03m Tesco Extra (Burnley) 8.8% / £0.3m Asda (Burnley) 5.9% / £0.2 m Princess Way RP 5.9% / £0.2 m CDs / DVDs Padiham 0% Rural West 2.7% / £0.04m Burnley 60.5% / £1.7m Asda (Burnley) 17.1% / £0.5m Tesco Extra (Burnley) 9.2% / £0.3m Books & Stationery Padiham 4.3% / £0.1m Rural West 3.4% / £0.03m Burnley 78.4% / £1.2m Tesco Extra (Burnley) 7.8% / £0.1m Asda (Burnley) 5.2% / £0.1 m Glassware / Padiham 3.1% / £0.04m Rural West 8.5% / £0.1m Burnley 55.7% / £0.7m Tableware Boundary Mill RP 13.4% / £0.2m Asda (Burnley) 8.2% / £0.1m
Medical Goods Padiham 25.7% / £0.4m Rural West 25.4% / £0.2m Burnley 60% / £0.9m Rural East 9.5% / £0.04m Asda (Burnley) 5% / £0.1m Recreational Goods Padiham 5.7% / £0.3m Rural East 3.7% / £0.04m Burnley 60% / £3.2m Manchester 7.1% / £0.4m Preston 7.1% / £0.4m
a) Forward Capacity – Constant Market Share
11.9 On the basis of forward population and expenditure growth, assuming that the current overall comparison market share is projected forward, our assessment identifies the following quantitative capacity for comparison goods in Padiham:
SCENARIO / YEAR 2012 2018 2026 1) LOW GROWTH 27 m 2 (gross) 90 m 2 (gross) 202 m 2 (gross) 2) HIGH GROWTH 23 m 2 (gross) 108 m2 (gross) 343 m2 (gross)
11.10 The floorspace figures identified in the quantitative capacity assessment are not sufficient to support any major new comparison development within Padiham town centre. This baseline capacity position however represents a ‘do-nothing’ scenario and does not respond to the
January 2010 58 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
existing levels of expenditure leakage to other centres in the retail hierarchy. We therefore go on to consider the potential to improve comparison goods expenditure retention levels below.
b) Forward Capacity Position - Potential for Improvement
11.11 Padiham presently retains just 4.2% (£1.1 million) of comparison expenditure arising within its immediate catchment (zone 2). The town’s overall market share from the four catchment zones amalgamated together decreases to 2.9% (£1.8 million). The town clearly performs a limited day-to-day comparison shopping role with the majority of local residents looking to Burnley to meet their comparison shopping needs.
11.12 Given the close proximity and good access, we expect Burnley to continue to dominate catchment spend given that Padiham presently has a limited comparison offer, characterised by small independent shops with no national multiple retailers. In our view, in order to significantly improve its performance, the town would need to attract national multiples so as to enable it to compete with Burnley and provide an attractive alternative to local residents.
11.13 The town however is unlikely to be able to compete on a like-for-like basis with Burnley given its size, the relatively constrained catchment which it serves and the lack of a critical mass of retail provision required in order to generate footfall and facilitate linked trips. The town’s historic core also restricts any potential expansion in its comparison retail offer to accommodate the national multiples required to improve its performance.
11.14 Therefore, whilst the clawback of expenditure presently leaking outside of the wider Padiham catchment (zones 1-4) would clearly generate quantitative need for new comparison floorspace in the town, the prospects of attracting the comparison multiple retailers required to enhance its retail offer and compete with higher order centres as a realistic and viable alternative shopping destination are low.
11.15 In our view the provision of a new mainstream foodstore in the town which includes an appropriate quantum of non-food floorspace (clothing, entertainment and homeware goods), provides the best opportunity to enhance existing market share performance and deliver wider quantitative, qualitative and sustainability benefits by clawing-back comparison expenditure that is presently flowing outside of the Padiham catchment to large foodstores in Burnley (principally Asda and Tesco Extra).
11.16 With respect to the wider policy focus for Padiham, we recommend that the Council seeks to secure qualitative improvements to the existing town centre offer, building upon the town’s
January 2010 59 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
existing independent offer to qualitatively distinguish itself from surrounding larger centres in the sub-regional retail hierarchy.
11.17 If any developer-led proposals do however emerge outside of the LDF process, then in our opinion there is scope to support new comparison retail on a quantitative and qualitative basis given the town’s present low market share and outflow of expenditure from its catchment.
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12. BULKY COMPARISON RETAIL ANALYSIS
12.1 Whilst bulky goods retailing by its nature is less town centre orientated given that it requires large sites to accommodate retail warehouses and substantial on-site parking provision, the recent trend in high street comparison retailing for operators to locate in larger centres at the expense of smaller centres in the retail hierarchy is also reflected in bulky goods retailing.
12.2 Padiham has a traditional bulky goods offer characterised by small town centre hardware shops. The main bulky goods retail provision is focused on edge / out-of-centre site around Burnley (Active Way) and Nelson (B&Q). The lack of mainstream bulky goods provision is reflected in the household survey analysis below.
OVERALL BULKY GOODS MARKET SHARE
12.3 There is presently £34.6 million of bulky goods expenditure arising within the overall Padiham catchment (zones 1-4); most of this expenditure (£15.1 million) arises within the immediate Padiham catchment (zone 2).
12.4 The household survey results set out in the plan below indicate that Padiham town centre presently secures just under 10% (9.8% / £1.5 million) of bulky goods expenditure arising within its immediate catchment (zone 2); most local residents look towards Burnley (town centre 47.2% / £7.1 million; retail parks 12.1% / £1.8 million), Nelson (8.7% / £1.3 million) and Blackburn (4.9% / £0.7 million).
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12.5 In terms of the wider Padiham catchment (zones 1, 3 & 4), the household survey indicate the following comparison goods market shares and expenditure flows:
• Zone 1 Rural West – Padiham presently secures 7.2% (£0.6 million) of bulky goods expenditure arising within the catchment; most local residents shop in Burnley town centre (31.6% / £2.7 million), Blackburn (12.5% / £1 million), Clitheroe (10.3% / £0.9 million) or Nelson 15 (7.8% / £0.7 million)
• Zone 3 Burnley North – the town only secures 1.8% (£0.1 million) from the catchment; most local residents shop in Burnley (town centre 54.5% / £3.8 million; retail parks 12.7% / £0.9 million) and Nelson (11.8% / £0.8 million).
• Zone 4 Rural East – Padiham secures 4% (£0.2 million) of bulky goods expenditure arising within the catchment; most local residents look towards Burnley town centre (32.5% / £1.3 million), Nelson (21% / £0.8 million) and Accrington (6.3% / £0.3 million) to meet their main bulky shopping needs.
12.6 Overall, the assessment finds that Padiham town centre secures £2.4 million of the total £34.6 million expenditure pot arising from its wider catchment (zones 1-4) as a whole; this is equivalent to an overall 6.9% bulky goods retention figure.
INDIVIDUAL BULKY GOODS MARKET SHARES
12.7 The limited bulky comparison offer within Padiham is reflected in the low levels of expenditure that the town centre retains for individual bulky goods (furniture, DIY, large electrical appliances etc.), as set out below:
COMPARISON TOWN CENTRE M/S FROM TOWN CENTRE M/S FROM OUTFLOWS GOODS PADIHAM CATCHMENT ADJOIN. CATCHMENTS (ZONE 2) (ZONES 1,3,4) Furniture / Flooring Padiham 6.9% / £0.4m Rural West 4.1% / £0.1m Burnley 44.8% / £2.5m Burnley North 3.7% / £0.1m Blackburn 11.5% / £0.6m DIY Goods Padiham 5.9% / £0.2m Rural West 2.9% / £0.04m Burnley 36.3% / £0.9m Burnley North 2.7% / £0.03m B&Q (Nelson) 32.6% / £0.8m Focus (Burnley) 14.1% / £0.4m Major Household Padiham 7% / £0.1m Rural West 7.1% / £0.05m Burnley 59.6% / £0.8m Appliances Anchor RP 11.4% / £0.2m Princess Way RP 6.1% / £0.1m Large Electrical Goods Padiham 14.8% / £0.6m Rural West 13.3% / £0.3m Burnley 51.3% / £2.2m Rural East 3.4% / £0.03m Anchor RP 9.6% / £0.4m Princess Way RP 7% / £0.3m Gardens / Pets Padiham 15.5% / £0.2m Rural East 16.4% / £0.07m Burnley 51.8% / £0.7m Rural West 10.2% / £0.08m Nelson 10% / £0.1m
15 Nelson responses include B&Q
January 2010 62 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
a) Forward Capacity Position – Constant Market Share
12.8 On the basis of forward population and expenditure growth, assuming that the current overall market share is projected forward on a constant basis, our assessment identifies the following quantitative capacity for bulky goods in Padiham:
SCENARIO / YEAR 2012 2018 2026 1) LOW GROWTH 31 m2 (gross) 104 m2 (gross) 233 m2 (gross) 2) HIGH GROWTH 27 m2 (gross) 124 m2 (gross) 394 m2 (gross)
12.9 The baseline capacity position identifies no need for bulky goods development through the LDF process. This position assumes however that the current levels of expenditure leakage will continue and we assess the potential for improvement below.
b) Forward Capacity - Potential for Improvement
12.10 The town performs poorly in respect to bulky goods, retaining only 9.8% of expenditure arising within its immediate catchment (zone 2) and just 6.9% when the catchment is considered as a whole (zones 1-4). This relatively low market share performance is attributable to the town’s limited retail offer, which currently comprises small local independent hardware shops, and also the close geographic proximity and access from the town to higher order bulky goods provision in Burnley, Nelson and to a lesser extent Blackburn.
12.11 Given the strength of the bulky goods offer within these higher order centres and the preference for operators to locate in dedicated bulky goods retail park destinations (enhanced potential for linked shopping trips etc.), whilst there is scope for Padiham to support new bulky retail provision in both quantitative and qualitative terms, the town is unlikely to attract the national multiples required to increase its market share and address existing deficiencies. The likelihood of Padiham attracting new bulky goods provision is even less likely in the current economic climate given the financial and operational difficulties facing bulky goods operators (limited expansion plans etc.).
12.12 We therefore do not consider that there is an overriding need for the Council to plan for new bulky goods provision in Padiham through the AAP / LDF. With respect to developer-led proposals which may emerge outside of the LDF, consistent with our advice elsewhere, additional provision could be supported within the catchment if the proposals are of a sufficient quality to genuinely enhance the existing offer and clawback current expenditure leakage.
January 2010 63 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
12.13 As the town centre is relatively constrained by its historic core and surrounding topography, there are a lack of potential development sites in the town and we do not consider that the allocation of any sites for bulky goods development in Padiham is a priority for the Borough Council through the AAP / LDF process.
January 2010 64 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
13. PPS4 ASSESSMENT
13.1 The capacity assessment has identified a quantitative and qualitative need for a new mainstream foodstore in the town centre to address current deficiencies and enable the town to perform its intended role. Flowing from the capacity assessment, the assessment has also identified an appropriate scale of provision that Padiham could realistically support.
13.2 Having identified a need and appropriate scale of foodstore development for Padiham, PPS4 requires local planning authorities to identify a suitable site for new development by adopting the following approach:
• To apply the sequential approach to site selection in accordance with the town centre first approach (in-centre followed by edge-of-centre locations which will be well connected to the existing centre);
• To assess impact in accordance with the tests set out in policy EC16 (as detailed below and set out in the planning policy framework review); and
• To consider the degree to which other considerations such as any physical regeneration benefits, employment opportunities, increased investment in an area or social inclusion, may be material to the choice of appropriate locations for development.
13.3 A site has already been identified through the Preferred Option AAP process for retail development. We consider the suitability of the site for a new foodstore prior to assessing the impact of a new foodstore against the principal tests set out in PPS4 policy EC16.
SEQUENTIAL COMPLIANCE
13.4 Padiham is a relatively elongated centre constrained by the River Calder and surrounding topography. The retail offer in the town comprises terraces of shops fronting Burnley Road. There is a limited depth to the retail offer with residential dwellings lying immediately to the rear of the shops.
13.5 The constrained layout of Padiham restricts development site opportunities within the town centre; there are several small infill sites which would not be capable of accommodating the scale of development required in order to secure the positive benefits to the town.
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13.6 The lack of centrally located development sites has been recognised by the Borough Council in the Preferred Option Area Action Plan (AAP) 16 which proposes the allocation of the Wyre Street site (PAD MU1/1) for a mix of town centre uses including retailing. The site is presently comprises a series of under-utilised mill buildings and low grade employment uses.
Padiham AAP (Preferred Option) Proposals Map Extract
13.7 The proposed site occupies an edge-of-centre location beyond the proposed AAP town centre boundary; it is however a well connected site which is located immediately adjacent to the town’s central shopping area (less than 100 metres easy walk) and is accessible by alternative means of transport.
13.8 The development of a new mainstream foodstore on the site should, subject to securing an appropriate site layout and maximising linkages with the adjoining central shopping area, effectively function as part of the town centre. Its location should allow for linked trips with existing shops and service provision in the town centre. The provision of a new foodstore with appropriate car parking capacity would also deliver wider benefits given that it would potentially enable visitors to spend more time in the town centre during their visits.
13.9 In the absence of any centrally located sites which would be available, viable and suitable to support a mainstream foodstore of the scale required to meet the need identified in the
16 Policy PAD MU1/1: - Mixed Use Development (Preferred Option) – Wyre Street / Lune Street
January 2010 66 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
capacity assessment, we consider that the proposed Wyre Street allocation for retail development would meet the PPS4 sequential test requirements for an edge-of-centre site.
IMPACT
13.10 As the Preferred Option AAP identifies an edge-of-centre site for retail development PPS4 (policy EC5.4) requires an assessment of the proposed allocation against the principal impact tests set out in policy EC1617 . The principal impacts of a new foodstore in Padiham are therefore considered below, cross-referring to the accompanying PPS4 practice guidance.
13.11 As a general approach however it should be noted that PPS4 emphasises that the assessment of impact should be made on centres overall rather than individual stores. Whilst impacts on individual shops and stores in the catchment may arise, the judgement of the significance of any impact has to be that arising on the centre as a whole. PPS4 makes clear that it is not the role of the planning system to restrict competition, preserve commercial interests or prevent innovation.
EC16.1a - Impact on Investment
13.12 The emerging AAP establishes a broad framework for future public and private investment in Padiham. Key objectives of the emerging AAP include fostering economic growth and encouraging the provision of a choice of local shops and services in accordance within the regeneration projects undertaken through the Market Towns Initiative.
13.13 The Preferred Option AAP identifies the edge-of-centre Wyre Street site as being suitable for retail development. The site, which is well integrated and highly accessible to the existing central shopping area, meets the PPS4 sequential tests and would effectively function as part of the town centre offer.
13.14 Our assessment has identified a quantitative and qualitative need for a new foodstore to address current deficiencies in the town’s retail offer and enable it to perform its intended role within the local retail hierarchy. A new foodstore would potentially deliver significant sustainability and economic benefits by materially reducing the current outflows of local residents’ expenditure to mainstream foodstores in surrounding towns. A new centrally located foodstore would also facilitate linked trips within the existing town centre.
17 PPS4 Policy EC16 – ‘The Impact Assessment for Main Town Centre Uses that are not in a centre or in accordance with an Up-To-Date Development plan’.
January 2010 67 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
13.15 Therefore, within this context, it is our view that a new mainstream foodstore would deliver a positive investment impact on Padiham. The town is located within an area of multiple deprivation 18 and development of a new foodstore would represent a major investment in Padiham, bringing forward the physical regeneration of an under-utilised employment site, creating major employment opportunities and meeting social inclusion objectives. These are important material benefits which the Council can attach significant weight to in both its forward planning and development management function.
13.16 In addition to the positive investment benefits to Padiham, given that a new foodstore in the town centre would primarily serve to redress the existing imbalance in convenience provision in the locality and primarily meet local residents’ day-to-day shopping needs, we consider that there will be no material impact on proposed investment in other surrounding centres.
EC16.1b & EC16.1d – Impact on Town Centre Vitality and Viability
13.17 In assessing the impact of the proposal on town centre vitality and viability, PPS4 directs local planning authorities to balance the desirability of maintaining and enhancing the turnover of existing facilities with the benefits of improved consumer choice, competition and access to new facilities.
13.18 The policy guidance also requires consideration of the implications of a proposal / allocation on retail diversity, stating that significant levels of trade diversion from a centre or its key sectors can seriously undermine its vitality and viability, resulting in reduced footfall, increased vacancies and a more ‘down market’ offer. It is however acknowledged in the PPS4 practice guidance that there are no meaningful benchmarks of what constitutes an acceptable level of trade diversion and that any negative effects needs to be balanced against the positives in reaching an overall judgement.
13.19 With respect to Padiham, we consider that there could be both positive and negative impacts arising through provision of a new mainstream foodstore in the town. We set out these below before going on to conclude on planning balance.
POSITIVE IMPACTS
13.20 The positive impacts of a new foodstore in Padiham have been set out in detail both in our capacity assessment and also in respect to EC16.1a above. It is clear from the survey evidence that Padiham is performing relatively poorly in terms of convenience shopping with a low market share. The existing convenience offer predominantly caters for daily top-up
18 As defined by the Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD)
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shopping needs with the majority of local residents travelling to mainstream foodstores in surrounding centres for the main (bulk) food shopping.
13.21 The current low market share performance and unsustainable outflow of expenditure to large foodstores in surrounding centres reflects the present quantitative and qualitative deficiencies in the existing convenience offer. The current Co-Op store does not function effectively as a main foodstore destination and has a limited range of goods in comparison to larger mainstream foodstores in surrounding centres.
13.22 In this situation, the provision of a new modern foodstore with a full range of goods (convenience and comparison) in an accessible town centre location should have a positive impact on town centre vitality and viability. It would enhance expenditure retention (reducing outward journeys), encourage linked trips (particularly given the provision of a new town centre car park and the establishment of a favourable car parking charging regime) and increase the range and quality of convenience provision in Padiham.
13.23 The increase in the number of local residents shopping in Padiham as a result of linked trips could potentially deliver economic benefits to existing shops and services by increasing footfall and trade within the town centre. It should act as a catalyst for or encouragement to further investment in Padiham.
NEGATIVE IMPACTS
13.24 A new foodstore located on Wyre Street has the potential to compete with and divert trade away from existing traders. If some or all of these existing retailers were to cease trading as a result of economic impact then this could be considered to represent a reduction in the overall retail diversity and choice within Padiham. PPS4 requires that any judgement on the significance of negative impacts requires a proper understanding of the vitality and viability of the centre.
13.25 We have therefore undertaken an impact assessment based on the existing market shares identified in the household survey data in order to understand the likely trade draw of a new foodstore. This accords with the approach set out in the PPS4 practice guidance (paras. D.27-D.30) which identifies that the household survey data provides a baseline position which enables a series of transparent judgements to be made on where a new foodstores turnover is likely to be derived from.
13.26 The PPS4 practice guidance suggests that judgements on likely trade draw should take account of two factors in an overall assessment of impact:
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1. Character ; there is a general assumption that ‘like affects like’ and that in areas already served by large modern foodstores the effects of new foodstore provision is likely to fall disproportionately on the existing competing stores. Their proportionate impact on local independent retailers for example may be less.
2. Distance ; generally consumers will seek to use the closest comparable facility. Therefore if in a given zone a relatively small proportion of trade is attracted to a facility which is similar to but considerably further away than the proposal, it is likely to have a disproportionate effect on that facility.
13.27 We therefore set out the economic impacts arising from a new mainstream foodstore on the basis of it drawing trade (pro-rata) basis from existing provision (i.e. trade draw based on current market share), prior to making our own judgements on the likely trade draw. We assess impact firstly on Padiham before looking at impacts on the wider sub-region.
a) ECONOMIC IMPACTS ON PADIHAM
13.28 A new foodstore in Padiham is likely to divert some spending away from existing convenience floorspace within the town centre which comprises the Co-Op, Tesco Express and the smaller independent convenience shops. Our review of each is set out below. In each case we assume ‘normal’ consumer behaviour, rather then once influenced by any anti-supermarket or a specific anti-operator stance.
Co-Op
13.29 On the basis of the household survey results, the market share based impact assessment (Table 11, Appendix 2) identifies that a new mainstream foodstore in Padiham will draw 8.5% (£2.1 million) of its overall convenience turnover (£24.4 million) from the existing Co-Op store in the town centre. This trade draw would reduce the store’s (survey-derived) turnover from £4.7 million to £2.6 million, resulting in a potential 44% trade diversion impact.
13.30 This represents the position projected forward utilising the identified market share proportions. It is our view that a new mainstream foodstore in Padiham could have a greater impact on the existing Co-Op store than the market share approach would indicate. The Co-Op presently attracts some main food shopping and it is highly likely in our view that a significant proportion of those local residents who currently use the Co-Op will divert to a new foodstore in the town. Whilst there will be some brand loyalty, there is a real prospect that the store would become a secondary top-up destination at best.
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13.31 This level of trade diversion would raise material concerns over the future viability of the Co- Op. It is not possible to say with certainty how the operators may respond nor understand other factors which may influence any such commercial response (e.g. the leasehold / freehold position / cost base of the store etc.). It is possible however that the store could cease trading in light of a new foodstore coming forward.
13.32 However, the existing Co-Op store is not performing a main foodstore role for Padiham and it has a limited convenience offer in comparison to the larger mainstream foodstores in the locality. The limitations of its offer are reflected in its low market share and below average performance against company benchmark. It is our view that the closure of the store, if that came about, would not materially undermine the vitality and viability of the town centre as a whole given that a new and better performing mainstream foodstore would assume this role.
13.33 The alternative view of course is that the Co-Op store seeks to respond commercially to the challenge of a new foodstore by investing, refurbishing, re-profiling its offer, adjusting its pricing strategy or its trading response. The Co-Op has a strong local and national reputation and corporately is relatively buoyant, capable of competing with national mainstream operators. Such a response would increase diversity and competition within Padiham to the benefit of local residents. However, at this stage it is not possible to be definitive.
Tesco Express
13.34 The household survey evidence indicates that despite its relatively limited range of convenience goods, the Tesco Express store presently performs both a main food and top-up function for local residents. The market share approach19 identifies that a new foodstore in Padiham will draw 2.7% (£0.8 million) of its turnover from the store; this would constitute a 43.8% trade diversion and would in effect reduce the turnover of the store to £0.8 million.
13.35 However, we consider that the overall trade diversion is likely to be slightly more given that a new mainstream foodstore would principally meet main (bulk) food shopping needs; the Tesco Express is therefore unlikely to maintain any of its current main food market share. In addition, given that the new store will also secure some of top-up spending that the store presently secures, the impact is likely to be greater than the market share approach suggests.
13.36 Whilst this level of trade diversion would ordinarily raise material concerns over the forward viability of the store, we consider that the store is likely to continue to meet a level of local residents’ top-up needs given existing trading and opening time restrictions on large foodstores. The existing store is purpose-built, prominently located on Burnley Road and is
January 2010 71 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
likely to remain attractive for some top-up shopping given that it benefits from a small dedicated customer car park. In commercial terms the Tesco Express is also part of a larger operator chain and it is likely that the store could absorb the trade diversion costs and not close. This would again however be subject to commercial considerations.
Local Independent Provision
13.37 Whilst PPS4 (and the survey evidence) sets out that the impact of a foodstore may be proportionally less on independent retailers than mainstream foodstores, the practice guidance in particular advises local planning authorities to take a cautious approach to centres which are showing signs of vulnerability in terms of reduced footfall, increased vacancies and a more ‘down market’ offer.
13.38 The practice guidance acknowledges that centres can rely on a particular diversity and special character and that the loss of a key town centre attraction can have a wider impact. We have therefore assessed the likely impact of a new foodstore on local independent provision in Padiham against the principal indicators set out below.
13.39 The healthcheck assessment which underpins the retail capacity assessment currently identifies 10 small independent convenience shops present within the town centre, as follows:
• 2 Butchers – CC Speak (Church Street) and Conlan’s (Burnley Road);
• 2 Bakers – Oddies (Burnley Road) and Birtwistle (Ightenhill Street);
• 1 Grocer – Cartmells (Burnley Road)
• 3 Delis / Sandwich Bars – Chequers, Lunch Bunch and Pantry;
• 1 Off -Licence – Bargain Booze (Burnley Road);
• 1 General Convenience Stores – One Stop Shop (Burnley Road); and
• 1 Newsagent – Brenda’s (Burnley Road, Hapton Street).
13.40 It does not appear from recent visits to the town centre that the current independent retail offer is ‘upmarket’ and qualitatively distinguishable (i.e. in terms of niche provision, stock lines, sourcing policy etc.) from the service that a mainstream foodstore is likely to offer. It is likely that there will be some diversion of spending and economic impact on some of these local traders given that the new foodstore will accommodate a full range offer (in-store bakery, grocery, butchers and newsagent) which replicates the independent offer and benefits from competitive pricing, dedicated car parking and a central location.
19 Table 11, Appendix 2
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13.41 The market share approach identifies that a new mainstream foodstore will draw 3.3% (£0.8 million) of its convenience turnover (£24.4 million) from local shops within the town centre; this trade draw would reduce the local shops (survey-based) turnover from £2.1 million at present to £1.2 million after the foodstore opens – a 33% trade diversion impact.
13.42 This level of impact may potentially lead to the closure of some of these existing traders. Given the likely profile of the foodstore, it is probable that the existing grocer, bakers and butchers within Padiham would be the ones at direct risk. Attempting to quantify this is difficult; whilst the loss of one of the butchers and bakers would in our view would not lead to any material deficiency in the diversity of uses in the town centre, the loss of both butchers and bakers from the town centre could be considered to have a material impact on diversity and in effect reduce competition and choice. The One-Stop Store and Bargain Booze off- licence should be less susceptible to competition given that they are national chains and have an extremely limited convenience offer (tinned goods, daily perishables, cereals etc.).
13.43 The possible closure of some of the existing independent operators may also potentially increase vacancies within the town centre in the short-term. The healthcheck assessment has however identified that:
• The current vacancy rate (19 units / 11.2% of total floorspace) is in line with the regional average 20 and has remained relatively constant since the 1997 Study (19 units).
• The current vacant units are predominantly located to the northern part of Burnley Road and have been vacant for a relatively long period of time; this suggests that they are small, constrained and difficult to let. A new foodstore is therefore unlikely to negatively affect the likelihood of securing occupiers for these small units in the longer-term.
• The majority of units within the town centre (72 units) occupied by non-retail uses such as food takeaways and professional services.
13.44 As the convenience offer comprises a relatively small element of the overall town centre offer it is possible that any new vacancies created through the opening of a new foodstore in the town centre may be attractive to new alternative retail or service uses which benefit from locations near to foodstores. Whilst in the short-term there may be some change in the town centre vacancy rate, in the longer-term new retailers or occupiers previously not represented in Padiham may be attracted by the wider regeneration stimulus that the foodstore may provide.
20 Goad North West Regional Average
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13.45 Overall therefore, whilst there may be some loss of retail diversity from the town centre, this needs to be balanced against the positive impacts that a new foodstore will deliver and PPS4 guidance which specifically recognises that it is not the role of the planning system to restrict competition, preserve commercial interests or prevent innovation.
b) IMPACT ON SURROUNDING FOODSTORE PROVISION (WIDER IMPACT)
13.46 The household survey evidence identifies that the majority of local residents in the Padiham catchment travel to mainstream foodstores in surrounding centres to meet their main (bulk) food shopping needs. The market-share approach accordingly identifies that the trade draw of the new foodstore in Padiham will be on the Asda (25.7% / £6.3 million), Sainsbury’s (8% / £2 million) and Tesco Extra (15.9% / £3.9 million) stores in Burnley 21 .
13.47 However, a new modern foodstore located in Padiham town centre, which has a comparable range and quality of goods, is highly likely in our view to compete with this existing mainstream provision on a like-for-like basis. The trading impact of a new foodstore in Padiham on the Asda, Sainsbury’s and Tesco Extra stores in Burnley is highly likely in reality to be higher than the market-share assessment identifies.
13.48 Whilst the trade diversions are significant in monetary terms, it is unlikely that they will significantly undermine the future viability of these stores given that:
• The new foodstore solely seeks to draw-back trade which is presently flowing outside of its natural catchment; existing competing foodstore provision has long benefited from expenditure that should have been retained in the Padiham catchment.
• The expenditure diverted from the Padiham catchment is only one element of their overall turnover in quantitative terms; the foodstores will continue to serve their own catchment.
• The foodstores are key anchors within the surrounding centres and will continue to benefit from linked shopping trips within the centres (i.e. Burnley).
• Some local residents will inevitably continue to shop at competing stores outside of the Padiham catchment due to brand loyalty etc.
13.49 It is our view therefore that a new foodstore in Padiham will not impact on the trading performance of existing provision in surrounding centres sufficient to materially undermine the vitality and viability of any particular centre; the failure to claw-back the expenditure presently flowing to these stores would continue to accentuate the existing imbalances in the local retail hierarchy and restrict competition and choice.
21 Table 11, Appendix 2
January 2010 74 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
PLANNING BALANCE – TOWN CENTRE IMPACT
13.50 The assessment has identified that a new foodstore may have some impacts on existing convenience provision in Padiham, at a level which could cause some of the existing convenience shops to close. There are however significant positive benefits arising from new provision which would need to be weighed against the identified negative effects as follows:
• A new foodstore located on the Wyre Street site would effectively function as part of the town centre and could significantly assist in increasing market share performance through clawing back expenditure which is presently being lost to competing destinations. New provision could increase linked shopping trips within the town centre and would primarily compete with surrounding mainstream foodstores on a like-for-like basis.
• A new foodstore will meet an identified qualitative need by providing a full range of goods and enhancing quality and choice for local residents; the existing convenience offer within the town centre is predominantly orientated towards meeting top-up shopping needs and there is a lack of a full-range of goods.
• The survey evidence clearly identifies that existing provision is not meeting the needs of local residents and is significantly under-performing relative to expected benchmarks. This current under-performance is primarily attributable to the limited top-up orientated nature of the town centre convenience offer.
• The healthcheck assessment finds that the existing convenience provision within Padiham town centre is not of a sufficient quality or materially distinguishable from a mainstream offer in terms of product ranges, pricing etc. The town is also predominantly sustained by its wider service function with the majority of units within the town centre dedicated to meeting non-food shopping needs.
• The town is located within an area of multiple deprivation and a new foodstore would deliver major regeneration benefits, securing major investment in the town, promoting social inclusion, generating employment opportunities and reducing the need to travel.
13.51 It will clearly be for the Council to weigh-up the material benefits against the disadvantages in both its development management and forward planning function. There may be other material considerations to take into account such as whether the town can support a foodstore in physical terms (highways etc.) given existing constraints (historic core, topography etc.).
13.52 It is our view however that the benefits of a new mainstream foodstore on the proposed Wyre Street site allocation outweigh the identified negative impacts. It is not the role of the planning system to restrict competition, choice or protect individual operators except with regard to
January 2010 75 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
matters of diversity. In our view a new mainstream foodstore in Padiham, located on a well connected edge-of-site site immediately adjacent to the town’s central shopping area, would better function as a main foodstore anchor and attraction for the town.
EC16.1c – Impact on Allocated Sites outside Town Centres
13.53 The emerging AAP proposes the allocation of the Wyre Street site (PAD MU1/1) immediately adjacent to the town’s central shopping area. It is considered for the reasons previously set out (accessibility, connectivity etc.) that the site is sequentially compliant within the terms of PPS4 and will effectively function as part of Padiham town centre.
13.54 The proposal will not have any impact on allocated sites outside of the town centre. If however proposals come forward for additional convenience provision in the wider Borough and particularly in and around Burnley town centre, the Borough Council should be mindful that the trading performance of the existing mainstream foodstores (Asda, Sainsbury’s and Tesco Extra) is likely to be reduced by virtue of a new foodstore in Padiham rightfully clawing- back expenditure which has previously flowed from its immediate catchment given existing quantitative and qualitative deficiencies in its offer.
EC16.1e – Appropriateness of Scale
13.55 The capacity assessment has identified the scale of foodstore that the Padiham catchment can sustain in quantitative terms and which is required to deliver significant qualitative benefits to the town by enabling it to compete on a like-for-like basis with surrounding mainstream foodstores. Given that Padiham is identified as a town in the borough hierarchy, it is considered that a new mainstream foodstore will enable it to perform its intended role and meet the overriding needs of local residents.
13.56 In addition, there is further support for a new foodstore in Padiham on the basis of PPS4 practice guidance which acknowledges that the consistency of a proposal with similar facilities in other centres at a similar level in the retail hierarchy can provide additional indicators of appropriateness of scale. Padiham is defined along with Great Harwood in the (withdrawn) Joint Lancashire Structure Plan (JLSP) 22 as key service centres and a recent call-in inquiry into proposals for a similar scale Tesco foodstore (c. 3,120 m 2 net) in Great Harwood concluded that key service centres were appropriate locations for mainstream foodstores.
22 Joint Lancashire Structure Plan (March 2005) ceased forming part of the statutory development plan following adoption of the revised Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS13) fro the North West in September 2008; Relevant Structure Plan policies relating to hierarchy were contained in Policy 4 – Development in Key Service Centres and Policy 16 – Retail Development.
January 2010 76 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
EC16.1f – Locally Important Impacts
13.57 Given that the Area Action Plan for Padiham is presently being progressed, no specific locally important impacts have been identified against which to test the proposal for a new mainstream foodstore in the town. It is clear however from our assessment that the impact on retail diversity is a particularly important local impact; this has been assessed in detail above.
13.58 The impact on the town’s infrastructure is also a particularly important local consideration. Whilst a new foodstore would deliver wider benefits to the town centre by increasing car parking capacity in the town (enhanced potential for linked trips), the emerging AAP acknowledges the constrained access of the proposed Wyre Street retail (mixed-use) allocation from Burnley Road and this should be carefully assessed by the Council.
SUMMARY
13.59 On the basis of our assessment, the points for consideration as are follows:
• The proposed site allocation represents the best option in sequential terms for Padiham town centre due to its existing constraints (topography etc.). A new foodstore would effectively function as part of the town centre and should encourage linked trips due to its good accessibility (adjacent to central shopping area) and potential shared car park.
• A new foodstore would represent a major positive investment in the town centre; there would be no adverse impacts on planned investment in any other surrounding centres given that the proposal would solely seek to serve its own catchment.
• A new foodstore would deliver significant positive economic and sustainability benefits to the Padiham locality by improving market share performance, increasing expenditure retention, encouraging linked trips and reducing overall outward journeys made by local residents to surrounding foodstore provision.
• There are major qualitative benefits that a new foodstore would deliver including increased choice and quality of convenience provision.
• A new foodstore would also stimulate physical regeneration of an under-utilised employment site immediately adjacent to the town’s central shopping area, creating major job opportunities and promoting social inclusion within an area of multiple deprivation.
• The main impacts of new foodstore provision would fall upon existing larger stores located outside the Padiham catchment; the provision of a new store would outweigh the likely trading impact on the existing Co-Op and Tesco Express stores.
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• The positive impacts of a new foodstore needs to be carefully balanced against the potential negative impacts; it is possible that some existing shops may close following the opening of the foodstore. However, given the nature of existing provision, the overall benefits arising from new foodstore provision outweigh the possible material harm to diversity and increased vacancies.
January 2010 78 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
14. LEISURE ASSESSMENT
14.1 This section reviews existing leisure facilities within Padiham town centre, focusing in particular on the cinema, health & fitness and evening economy provision (restaurants, bars and night-clubs). In order to inform the assessment, we have drawn upon the results of the household telephone and in-centre shopper surveys, which were designed to establish where local residents regularly visit for specific leisure activities.
14.2 Having established the principal leisure destinations for local residents, the surveys also asked local residents what improvements to the quality and range of leisure facilities would persuade households to visit the town centre more often. The main suggested improvements to leisure facilities inform a wider qualitative-based assessment of leisure provision.
CINEMA
14.3 As with retailing, mainstream cinema operators are increasing locating in larger sub-regional towns which serve a significant catchment and offer opportunities for linked shopping and leisure trips. This is highlighted in East Lancashire by the large Apollo cinema complex at Hollywood Park in Burnley (9 screens; 1,571 seat capacity) and Vue cinemas in Blackburn (10 screens; 1,600 seat capacity) and Accrington (4 screens; 862 seat capacity) 23 . The household survey results reflect the current pattern of cinema provision, as follows:
• Zone 1 Rural West – 42.4% of local residents in the catchment regularly visit the cinema; the majority (69.7%) travel to the Apollo Cinema in Burnley, the Vue Cinema in Blackburn (21.2%) or Vue in Accrington (6.1%).
• Zone 2 Padiham - 42.8% of local residents in the immediate catchment regularly visit the cinema; most local residents (86.8%) visit the Apollo Cinema in Burnley with only a small number looking to alternative facilities outside of the Borough including the Vue in Blackburn (4.4%) and cinemas in Manchester / Trafford Centre (3%).
• Zone 3 Burnley North – 45.1% of local residents in the catchment regularly visit the cinema; most local residents (78.4%) visit the Apollo Cinema in Burnley.
• Zone 4 Rural East – 43.2% visit the cinema regularly with the majority (87.1%) visiting the Apollo Cinema in Burnley.
23 Cinema Screen Provision and Seat Capacity sourced from Dodona Cinemagoing 18 Report (March 2009)
January 2010 79 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
14.4 Given the limitations of the Padiham catchment in terms of its size, the proximity of large-scale existing cinema provision in nearby sub-regional centres (Burnley, Blackburn and Accrington) allied to the preference for commercial operators to locate in such larger centres, we consider that there is no overriding need for the Borough Council to proactively plan for cinema development in Padiham town centre during the AAP / LDF process.
GYM / HEALTH & FITNESS
14.5 Padiham has a modern council-run gym facility centrally located within the town centre. The facility has recently been refurbished and has all major health and fitness facilities including a swimming pool, 38 station fitness suite, activity studio as well as outdoor sports facilities. The household survey identify the following patronage levels:
• Zone 1 Rural West – 22.4% of local residents in the catchment regularly visit the gym; most local residents (33.3%) use Padiham Leisure Centre. A small number however visit Roefield Leisure Centre in Clitheroe or Crow Wood Leisure Centre in Burnley (13.3% each). There are a limited number of residents (6.7%) who regularly visit the private membership JJB fitness centre in Blackburn.
• Zone 2 Padiham – just over one quarter (25.8%) of local residents in the catchment regularly visit a gym facility; surprisingly, given the recent refurbishment of the Padiham facility, only 28.2% of local residents visit the town centre facility. Most local residents instead use St Peter’s Leisure Centre (33.3%) in Burnley or the Crow Wood Leisure Centre (25.6%). We attribute the current patronage levels to travel-to-work patterns rather than any quantitative or qualitative deficiency in the town’s health and fitness offer.
• Zone 3 Burnley North – 25.6% of local residents in the catchment regularly visit the gym. The existing facility in Padiham only secures a 5.6% market share with the majority of local residents visiting the St Peter’s and Crow Wood facilities (38.9% each).
• Zone 4 Rural East – 25.7% of local residents visit a gym facility. The destinations regularly visited are disparate with Padiham Leisure Centre, Pendle Leisure Centre and the Powerhouse Gym in Nelson each securing a 10.5% market share. St Peter’s Leisure Centre in Burnley is slightly more popular (15.8%) whilst most respondents visit Crow Wood Leisure Centre (26.3%).
14.6 Whilst the household survey identifies that the existing council-run leisure centre facility in the town centre does not secure a significant market share from its immediate Padiham catchment (zone 2), we consider that there is no overriding requirement (i.e. no quantitative or qualitative deficiencies) for the Borough Council to proactively plan for additional gym provision in the
January 2010 80 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
town through the AAP / LDF process. If any private sector, operator-led health and fitness proposals do however emerge outside of the forward planning process, it should be assessed in accordance with the relevant (PPS6 / emerging PPS4) policy guidance.
BINGO
14.7 Nationally, bingo patronage is generally falling due to significant competition from internet gaming websites and also the effects of the smoking ban; this is reflected in the household survey results which found that only 1.2% of residents in the Rural West catchment, 7.5% of residents in the Padiham catchment (zone 2), 8.5% in the Burnley North catchment and 2.7% in the Rural East catchment regularly play.
14.8 In terms of the bingo club where local residents who do play regularly visit, the large Gala Bingo centre on Centenary Way on the edge of Burnley is the principal destination (90.9% from the Padiham catchment, 100% from the Rural East and West catchments).
14.9 Whilst there is currently no mainstream bingo provision in Padiham town centre, given the proximity to the large Gala facility in Burnley and the rationalisation of existing provision due to the current economic climate, we do not consider there is an overriding need for the Borough Council to proactively plan for new provision through the AAP / LDF process.
RESTAURANT AND BARS
14.10 Padiham has a traditional bar and restaurant offer with a limited family orientated facilities. In addition to two social clubs, there is a concentration of pubs around Church Street and Mill Street as well as a significant number of hot food takeaways. There were only two restaurants in the town centre open at the time of our on-site survey.
14.11 With respect to where local residents regularly visit to socialise, the survey results confirm:
• Zone 1 Rural West – 75.3% of local residents regularly eat out at restaurants; most travel to either Burnley (23.8%) or Clitheroe (28.6%) town centres; the limited restaurant offer in Padiham is reflected by only 2.1% of respondents visiting the town to eat out. In terms of pubs and bars, of the 49.4% who regularly visit, only 16.1% visit Padiham town centre. Most local residents visit Burnley (29%) or Clitheroe (22.6%) town centres.
• Zone 2 Padiham – whilst 67.9% of local residents in the catchment regularly eat out at restaurants, only 9.5% regularly eat out in Padiham. Most local residents visit Burnley town centre (49.2%). With respect to pubs and bars, of the 50.9% who regularly visit, only 19.7% visit Padiham with the majority (66.2%) visiting Burnley.
January 2010 81 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
• Zone 3 Burnley North – 73.2% regularly eat out at restaurants with the majority (53.8%) usually visiting Burnley town centre. The majority of the 48.8% who regularly visit pubs and bars to socialise usually visit Burnley (77.8%).
• Zone 4 Rural East – 82.4% regularly eat out at restaurants; most local residents visit Fence village (35.9%) or Burnley (33.3%). In terms of regularly visiting pubs and bars 58.1% regularly visit pubs and bars to socialise. Most local residents visit local pubs however (Fence village 45.2%).
14.12 In terms of forward policy and town centre strategy development for Padiham town centre, whilst the Council should proactively seek to diversify the existing evening leisure offer towards more family-orientated establishments, it is our view given the proximity of the town to Burnley and the limited catchment which Padiham serves, that it will remain as a secondary location for evening leisure activities.
14.13 The primary focus should remain on managing the existing concentration of Class A3 to A5 24 leisure uses along the main Burnley Road / Church Street thoroughfare. We note in this respect the proposed policy in the AAP Preferred Option 25 which seeks to maintain the criteria- based town centre frontage policy (10% non-retail frontage) originally set out in the adopted (replacement) Local Plan. Whilst there are existing vacant units in the town centre which detract from its wider vitality, we would query as to whether the specified 10% non-retail frontage threshold is appropriate for hot food takeaway uses in particular given the environmental impacts that a concentration of evening economy uses has on surrounding residential areas.
SUGGESTED QUALITATIVE IMPROVEMENTS
14.14 When asked to suggest improvements that could be made to the existing town centre leisure offer to persuade local residents to visit Padiham town centre more often, the main suggested responses included improving the range of places to eat (6.7% Rural West; 5.1% Padiham catchments) and socially drink (4.4% Rural West; 3.1% Padiham).
14.15 A major town centre management improvement suggested by local residents to increase evening leisure activity in Padiham is to improve policing and enhance security (6.7% Rural West; 3.1% Padiham). It should also however be noted that more than a quarter (26.5%) of those interviewed considered that no improvements to the quality and range of leisure facilities in Padiham town centre would be necessary.
24 Use Classes A3 – A5 defined as bars, restaurants and takeaways 25 Padiham Area Action Plan (AAP) – Preferred Options Report (February 2008); Policy PAD CS2
January 2010 82 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
15. OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT
15.1 Office uses can form an important component of the town centre economy, generating footfall and demand for a range of other uses such as retail and leisure. Outside town centre locations, office uses can help to stimulate enhanced levels of investor and occupier demand, and can play a pivotal role in the rejuvenation of traditional employment areas. It is therefore relevant to consider the role of and need for office-based uses in the context of this study and the wider AAP process.
15.2 Our assessment specifically considers existing patterns of office activity within Padiham, examining the volume and location of Class B1 office floorspace within the town centre and its immediate environs, the age of premises and performance indicators including rental levels, yields and vacancy rates.
15.3 Having established the current supply position, the assessment goes on to estimate the demand for office floorspace on the basis of alternative demand scenarios relating to past take-up activity rates and forecast employment growth models. The demand scenarios generated through the assessment have been subject to a detailed qualitative market testing exercise with commercial market agents and local occupiers in order to ensure that the final recommendations are robust and commercially realistic.
CURRENT OFFICE PROVISION / ACTIVITY
15.4 Existing floorspace provision within Burnley and Padiham is reported within the Borough Council’s Annual Monitoring Report (AMR) 2008, which utilises information derived from the Lancashire Town Centre Office Premises Study (2008).
15.5 The Lancashire Study identifies that borough-wide, Burnley has the third largest town centre office stock in the county after Preston and Blackburn. The borough also is identified to be one of the best performing districts in Lancashire in terms of the proportion of office accommodation located within town centres. Given the sub-regional role that Burnley performs in East Lancashire, it is unsurprising that the vast majority of the office supply in Burnley is located within Burnley town centre (36,070 m2; 95% of the borough total). Padiham, which is a smaller centre, has a limited supply (1,840 m2; 5% of the borough total). The current office provision in the borough is set out in the table below.
January 2010 83 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
Table 1 – Class A2 and B1 Office Floorspace Supply in Burnley Borough
Town Centre Number of Total Vacant % of Average Properties Floorspace Floorspace Floorspace property (m²) (m²) Vacant size (m²)
Burnley 91 36,070 5,933 16.4 396
Padiham 9 1,840 162 8.8 204
Source: Lancashire Town Centre Office Premises Study 2008
15.6 Further analysis within the Lancashire Town Centre Office Premises Study (2008) suggests that the size of premises within Padiham town centre ranges from 70 m2 to 1,162 m2; this reflects the traditional small-scale nature of office provision in the town. The relatively small office offer in Padiham compares with the modern Shuttleworth Mead Business Park on the edge of the town which has purpose-built offices ranging from 446 m2 to 1,469 m2.
15.7 In terms of the age of commercial floorspace, analysis of the most recently published data available (2004) suggests potential issues within the quality of stock across Burnley, illustrated within the table below.
Table 2 - Age of Commercial Floorspace in Burnley M) Total) 2001-0 (% Total) Unknown Unknown Age (% 1940-70 (% Total) 1971-80 (% Total) 1981-90 (% Total) Pre 1940Pre (% Total) 1991-2000 (% Total) TotalFloorspace (Sq BURNLEY 92 10.5 40.1 28.4 10.8 0.0 10.2 0.0 North West 10,853 5.6 33.7 21.3 11.9 9.8 13.4 4.3 England and Wales 99,373 5.8 27.9 18.3 11.0 17.1 14.7 5.3 26 Source: ONS, Commercial and Rateable Floorspace Statistics, 2004
15.8 It is clear from the data that the age of office floorspace within Burnley is skewed towards pre- 1970 to an extent which is more pronounced than regional or national comparators. In comparative terms, the age of office accommodation can be used as a proxy for quality, with offices developed prior to 1985 generally seen as unattractive or inappropriate to current market requirements or expectations.
26 NB: Data not available at Borough-level for floorspace dating from post-2000.
January 2010 84 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
15.9 Current market requirements include, for example, the extent to which the provision is flexible, modern, and meets Disability Discrimination Act (DDA) compliance. On the basis of available data, it is apparent that office provision in Burnley is generally at a competitive disadvantage in comparison to competing centres and locations in both the region and nationally.
15.10 The qualitative deficiency in the existing office provision is further emphasised in the Lancashire Town Centre Office Study (2008) which identifies, with the exception of Shuttleworth Mead Business Park, that existing office accommodation within Padiham town centre is pre-1980s. In quantitative terms, the study found that 89% of office properties within Padiham town centre dated from pre-1940s with 89% of this total identified to be in ‘average’ condition. The study found that only 11% of properties are DDA compliant and have on-site car parking.
15.11 In terms of the existing use class composition of office provision in Padiham, the study found that five properties (measuring a total of 565 m2) were occupied by Class A2 (professional services) users with four properties (1,274 m2) occupied by Class B1(a) office users.
15.12 The table below illustrates the level of ‘available’ (i.e. vacant and marketed) commercial office floorspace within Padiham (capturing postcode sector BB12) as recorded on the Estates Gazette Interactive (EGi) website.
Table 3: Available Commercial Office Floorspace
PROPERTY ADDRESS SIZE RENT (/m²) 3 Pendle Court, Shuttleworth Mead Business Park, Burnley, BB12 7NG 446 – 1469m² N/A 4 Pendle Court, Shuttleworth Mead Business Park, Burnley, BB12 7NG 446 – 1469m² N/A 5 Parkhill Business Centre, 2 - 6 Padiham, Burnley, BB12 6TG 123 – 191m² £107.63 6 Liverpool Road, Burnley, BB12 6HH N/A N/A 7 Shuttle Worth Mead Business Park, Burnley, BB12 7NG N/A N/A Source: Estates Gazette Interactive (EGi), October 2009
15.13 Whilst very little information is available from the search relating to the nature of the available floorspace, including the size of the units, it is clear that the majority of available floorspace is concentrated within Shuttleworth Mead Business Park (c. 3,066 m2).
15.14 A similar search undertaken on the Focus website suggested availability of a first floor office at 32 Church Street (above retail premises) which has been divided into two small units of 12.7 m2 and 17.3 m2 respectively.
15.15 Utilising information retained by the Borough Council, it is also understood that the following office premises are available within Padiham:
January 2010 85 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
• Park Road - 155 m 2 with a leasehold of £150 per week;
• 71 to 77 Dryden Street – 6 to 167 m2 with a leasehold of £19 per week; and
• Padiham Business Park (Station Road) – 66 to 720 m2 (rents available on request).
15.16 In terms of recent office-related transactions in the Padiham areas, the Focus database recorded three rental deals but no actual sales between January 2004 and October 2009.
Table 4: Recorded Office Deals in Padiham January 2004 – October 2009
Address Date Use Days on Size Achieved Tenant Owner Class Market (m²) Rent (£/m²) Padiham Town Hall Jan 09 B1a 250 267 75.34 Primary Care Trust Burnley BC
Padiham Town Hall Jun 08 B1a n/a 29 75.34 Not Known Burnley BC
Padiham Town Hall Jun 08 B1a 36 69 75.34 Care Staff Solutions Burnley BC
Source: Focus, October 2009
15.17 All of the deals recorded for Padiham are for space within the former Town Hall which has been recently refurbished by the Borough Council (owner). The rent achieved for each of the deals in the town hall is quoted as being £75 per square metre; this is equivalent to £129 square metres for good office accommodation within Burnley town centre. Commercial consultations undertaken as part of this study suggest that £75 per square metres is at the peak of reasonable rents across Padiham for units of this size and type. It is understood that the Town Hall is now let.
15.18 The lack of data on deals and completed transactions is considered indicative of the lack of office accommodation across Padiham town centre.
ESTIMATING DEMAND FOR OFFICE FLOORSPACE
15.19 Four scenarios of demand for office floorspace have been considered within this study including relating to:
• Scenario 1 – VOA Trend-Based Demand Estimates ;
• Scenario 2 – Borough Council Annual Monitoring Trend-Based Demand Estimates ;
• Scenario 3 – Received Enquiries Estimates ; and
• Scenario 3 – 2009 Experian Based projected demand estimates.
January 2010 86 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
SCENARIO 1: VOA TREND BASED DEMAND ESTIMATION
15.20 The Valuation Office Agency (VOA) and DCLG publish annually commercial floorspace data, which records net completions of employment premises. Figure 1 shows indexed net growth in office floorspace (total offices, commercial offices and ‘other’ offices) between 1998 and 2008 across Burnley. Data is not available to a level below borough.
15.21 Net office floorspace increased by 51,000 m2 across the borough, including increase of 43,000 m2 in commercial office floorspace and 8,000 m2 ‘other’ office floorspace. This equated to an annual average net increase of 6,375 m2 (total).
Figure 1: Burnley Borough Indexed Net Completions: Historic Trend
Change in Office Floorspace - Burnley
2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40
1.20 Total Offices 1.00 Commercial Offices 0.80 Other' Offices
0.60 0.40 Annual Average (Base = 1998) Annual= (Base Average 0.20 0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: VOA / ONS, 2009
15.22 Projecting past trends relating to net completions forward, using a simple extrapolation of past trends, results in a requirement for circa 114,750 m2 (total office) including 96,750 m2 commercial office and 8,000 m2 ‘other’ office floorspace to 2026 across Burnley.
Table 5: VOA Floorspace Change Trends in Burnley (past and projected)
1998 (000's) 2008 (000's) Annual Requirements SQ.M SQ.M Net Growth Average to 2026 Total Offices 77 128 51 6375 114750 Commercial Offices 50 93 43 5375 96750 Other' Offices 27 35 8 1000 18000 Source: VOA / ONS, 2009
January 2010 87 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
SCENARIO 2: AMR TAKE-UP TREND BASED DEMAND ESTIMATION
15.23 The Borough Council through its Annual Monitoring (AMR) requirements has identified the quantum of floorspace developed over the previous four years as follows:
• 2008 ; total of 5,800 m2 of ‘traditional’ (i.e. use class B1, B2, and/or B8) employment floorspace developed over the previous year. Broken down this includes a B1, B2, B8 general mix of employment use development of 2,840 m2, a B8 warehousing development of 2,593 m2, and a B1(a) office development measuring 367 m2.
• 2007 ; total of 7,002 m2 of ‘traditional’ employment development over the previous year including 2,250 m2 of B1 use floorspace, and 4,752 m2 B2 general industrial floorspace.
• 2006 ; total of 23,809 m2 of ‘traditional’ employment development over the previous year including a 3,000 m2 B1(a) technology centre, 19,718 m2 B2 general industrial floorspace, and 1,091 m2 for B8 warehousing uses.
• 2005 ; identifies a total of 37,508 m2 of ‘traditional’ employment development over the previous year including 3,469 m2 B1(a) office development, and 34,039 m2 B2 general office development.
15.24 This increase in the quantum of employment floorspace between 2005 (the earliest AMR available) and 2008 (the latest AMR available) is further illustrated below.
Table 6: ‘Traditional’ Employment Floorspace Developed within Burnley
2005 (Square 2006 (Square 2007 (Square 2008 (Square Metres) Metres) Metres) Metres) Mix (B1, B2, B8) 2,840 B1(a) 3,469 3,000 2,250 367 B2 34,039 19,718 4,752 B8 1,091 2,593 TOTAL 37,508 23,809 7,002 5,800 Source: Burnley BC, Annual Monitoring Reports 2005 – 2008
15.25 This level of development activity equates to an annual average employment floorspace development of 18,530 m2, although this is seen to be skewed by the large development undertaken within both 2005 and 2006. Annual average B1(a) floorspace equates to 2,272 m2. Extrapolating this trend forward suggests a requirement for circa 40,887 m2 of B1(a) commercial floorspace to 2026.
January 2010 88 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
SCENARIO 3: ENQUIRIES RECEIVED
15.26 The 2008 Lancashire Town Centre Office Study identified demand for office floorspace based on analysis of enquiries received by Burnley BC over the period 2005 to 2007. A total of 127 enquiries were received by the Council relating to office floorspace including 71 that stated a size preference. These 127 enquires equate to 6% of the 2,166 enquiries received across Lancashire over the period.
Table 7: Burnley Enquiries Received 2005 – 2007 by Size of Requirement
Size Profile Enquiries Received <100 square metres 18 101 - 300 square metres 25 301 - 500 square metres 6 501 - 1000 square metres 9 < 1000 square metres 13 TOTAL 71 Source: Burnley Borough Council, 2008
15.27 There is a clear skew in enquiries towards smaller premises (<300 m2) coming into Burnley including 61% of all enquiries received falling into this category. The report does however not identify future requirements based on past trends, but rather presents the past trends as indicative of the strength and nature of the market going forwards.
SCENARIO 4: 2009-BASE PROJECTED DEMAND ESTIMATION
15.28 A further demand scenario has been considered within the analysis utilising Experian Business Strategies econometric forecasting data dating from autumn 2009. This data is only available to Burnley (i.e. borough) level but is provided as indication of strategic office property requirements.
15.29 A two-step approach is followed to translate employment projections to floorspace requirements as summarised in the bullet points below:
• Allowance for economic growth: utilising employment projections by sector to establish floorspace requirements through the application of relevant employment densities; and
• Allowance for choice and churn: application of assumptions relating to the need to make contingency allowance for employment space lost to Non-B use class activities and for changing needs of businesses including ‘churn’ requirements
January 2010 89 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
15.30 The forecast results are presented for the period 2008 to 2026 timeframe. Headline job number change is presented within Table 8 below.
Table 8: Forecast Employment Change in Burnley
Job Number 2008 Job Number 2026 Absolute Change % Change
Burnley Total Employment 31,041 28,965 2,076 -6.7
Burnley Office (B1a) 6,651 6,242 -410 -6.2% Employment Source: Experian Business Strategies / GVA Grimley, 2009
15.31 The data suggests that the Burnley economy is forecast to contract in employment terms over to the period to 2026 by 6.7% equating to a total of 2,076 jobs. This calculation takes into account the impact of the recession on the local economy, and is demonstrated on the figure overleaf.
15.32 The disaggregation of total employment to office employment within the borough has been undertaken through a use assumption matrix, based on current balance of employment by sub-sector utilising Annual Business Inquiry data (2008). These assumptions are set out within Table 9 below.
Figure 2: Forecast Employment Change Burnley Borough 2008 to 2026
Burnley Economic Growth Projections (2008 - 2026)
1.02
1.00
0.98
0.96
0.94
0.92
0.90
0.88
Changein EmploymentBase) = (2008 0 2 4 0 2 4 08 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 2 20 20 20 2016 2018 20 20 20 2026
Total Employment Total Office (B1a/b) Employment
Source: Experian Business Strategies / GVA Grimley, 2009
January 2010 90 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
Table 9 - Burnley Borough Use Assumption Matrix
Other Bus. Space Warehouse Office (B1a) (B1b/c, B2) (B8) Non-B-Class Total Agriculture 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 84.1% 100.0% Mining (excluding Oil & Gas) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Food, Drink & Tobacco 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Textiles, Footwear & Clothing 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Wood and Wood Products 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Paper, Printing & Publishing 29.5% 70.5% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Fuel Processing 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Chemicals & Manmade Fibres 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Rubber & Plastics 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Mineral Products 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Metals 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Mechanical Engineering 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Electrical Engineering 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Motor vehicles & other transport equipment 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Other Manufacturing 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Utilities 0.0% 58.3% 0.0% 41.7% 100.0% Construction 0.0% 62.3% 0.0% 37.7% 100.0% Wholesaling 2.7% 0.0% 66.4% 30.9% 100.0% Retailing 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% Hotels & Catering 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% Transport 2.3% 0.0% 9.6% 88.1% 100.0% Communications 49.0% 0.0% 51.0% 0.0% 100.0% Banking & Insurance 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Business Services 89.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Property Related Activities 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Public Administration & Defence 95.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 100.0% Education 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% Health 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 82.8% 100.0% Other (largely public) 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 82.8% 100.0% Source: GVA Grimley, 2009
15.33 The identified forecast change in employment relating to office sectors / sub-sectors within Burnley are translated to a property requirement through the application of a standard employment density of 18 m2 per employee 27 . This is illustrated within Table 10 below.
27 English Partnerships Guide to Employment Densities, 2002
January 2010 91 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
Table 10: Changes in Floorspace Requirements in Burnley 2008 to 2026
Employee Change 08 Employment Density Floorspace Change – 2026 (sq. m per employee) (sq. m) Office -4,10 18 -7,380 Source: Experian Business Strategies / GVA Grimley, 2009
15.34 Detailed information relating to the ‘loss’ of employment land / floorspace is not available. As a result a standard allowance of 10% has been applied as the choice and churn contingency. This allowance increases the estimated floorspace change from -7,380 to -8,118 m2.
QUALITATIVE MARKET TESTING
15.35 Consultation has been undertaken with three agents involved in office transactions in Padiham town centre. These are Petty and Co., Landwood Group and Burnley Borough Council. The headline findings of these consultations are summarised below
15.36 The overall perception of the agents consulted was that there is no real market for offices in Padiham town centre, with the small amount of accommodation available primarily comprised of small units above retail premises, which tend to be occupied by local professional services e.g. solicitor’s, accountants etc. The majority of interest is in out of town business parks, such as Altham Business Park and Shuttleworth Mead Business Park. This is primarily due to good motorway links and availability of modern, larger premises.
15.37 The largest and most prominent office building in the town centre is Padiham Town Hall, which is now fully let at £75.34/m². The town hall is mostly to public sector tenants including the Primary Care Trust, Citizen’s Advice Bureau, Padiham Town Council and Lancashire County Council. Other interested parties included small businesses from Ribble Valley and Preston. The building let fairly easily, with tenants attracted by its high profile, location on the main road (with good bus routes), and availability of free parking.
15.38 Padiham’s main town centre competitor would be Burnley, although it is also the case that most good office accommodation in the latter is located out of town. Other town centre competitors are Todmorden and Accrington
15.39 The local amenities in Padiham town centre are fairly good, although the retail offer looks ‘quite tired’ and would benefit from a facelift to improve its attractiveness. It is possible that some improvements to the retail and leisure offer in Padiham town centre may increase its attractiveness as an office location, but this is not likely to be significant.
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15.40 As the office market in Padiham is small, most agents were unable to provide information regarding what rents or yields would likely to be achieved. However, one agent suggested that for new office accommodation, rents would be expected in the order of £129-£140/m².
CONCLUSIONS
15.41 The following summarises the key findings of the analysis undertaking relating specifically to the office market, including future requirements.
STOCK CHARACTERISTICS AND PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
• The current office provision within Padiham town centre is limited; the town contributes fewer than 10% of the total number of office properties in Burnley and 5% of the Burnley total office floorspace.
• The average office property size within Padiham (204 m2) is smaller compared to the Burnley average. It is recognised that there is very limited provision of purpose built office accommodation within the town centre with the predominance of above-retail office premises. More recent developments including Shuttleworth Mead Business Park on the edge of Padiham are the exceptions to this rule.
• The quality of the provision is questioned within the analysis undertaken including issues with average age of floorspace, heavily skewed towards pre-1940s developments and high incidence of premises that are only in ‘average’ condition. There are noted concerns with the existing office stock in Padiham against DDA and modern occupier requirements.
• Qualitative analysis suggests that the Padiham market performs reasonably well as a local office location. There is minimal availability of office floorspace (i.e. limited vacancy) but this is seen to be largely a result of limited total floorspace.
• Recent market activity (i.e. transactions), demonstrating the strength of occupier interest within the town, has been limited to largely public sector occupiers. There is little evidence of significant ‘churn’ or local movements in the market, suggesting a relatively stagnant market at the current time.
• Rental level achieves, at circa £75 per square metre, are below the Burnley town centre prime rents but this could be expected given noted issues with quality of stock, public sector dominance of deals done, and the hierarchy of centres (within which Burnley town centre is the primary office location within the borough).
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POTENTIAL ‘GROWTH LOCATIONS’
• The commercial market analysis undertaken suggests limited appetite or opportunity for significant growth within office provision in Padiham over the plan period.
• The market makes a differentiation between the town centre provision (dominated by above retail premises floorspace) and the purpose built accommodation at Shuttleworth Mead Business Park, and also Altham Business Park. There is a need to balance approach to future provision in this context. The ‘out-of-centre’ purpose built provision is seen to offer a balance to town centre provision within Burnley, with Padiham town centre serving a much more local function.
• Given the above market perceptions, there is a need to enhance offer to serve local need, dominated by small business occupiers, alongside the continued provision of purpose built floorspace as a ‘market balance’ with Burnley town centre.
ESTIMATED FUTURE DEMAND
• Four scenarios or alternative estimates have been presented suggesting varying levels of future demand for office floorspace. This includes a range of requirements based on past trends and requirements based on forecast employment change. The analysis is largely based on Burnley-wide analysis as a result of the availability of data.
• Scenarios of growth based on past economic activity (i.e. past completions and development undertake) are flawed on the basis that they assume a continuation of past circumstances including land availability, market appetite, and economic climate. The current economic and commercial context is strong evidence to discount this type of approach to understanding future requirements.
• Similarly there are recognised flaws with utilising econometric forecasts to estimate future demand, including the vulnerability of data that has been disaggregated from the national and regional levels (the data is more reliable at this strategic level than the local), and the method utilised by the forecasting house to project future growth. This latter point is particularly pertinent in the current economic climate as forecasting houses continue to project growth based on that experienced in the previous 15 years (i.e. a continued shift to a service-sector dominated economy).
• Notwithstanding these vulnerabilities within the data presented, the analysis suggests a range of requirements for office floorspace from a net reduction in total provision of circa 8,118 square metres to 2026 to a requirement for circa 114,750 square metres (total office, circa 96,750 square metres commercial office) across Burnley Borough.
January 2010 94 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
• Assuming the continuation of the current contribution of Padiham town centre to the overall Burnley economy (Gawthorpe ward, which covers the majority of the town centre current accommodates 4% of Burnley’s total workplace-based employees 28 ) this equates to a requirement of circa 4,590 square metres of office floorspace (3,870 square metres commercial office floorspace) as a maximum.
TYPE AND QUALITY OF ACCOMODATION REQUIRED
• Analysis of enquiries data suggests a propensity within the Burnley occupier market towards small premises, including sub-300 square metres specifically above larger premises. This correlates with commercial market observations which suggest that Padiham has appeal for this type of activity and occupier.
• The analysis of the current stock of office provision identifies a need to improve current provision in the town centre to align with modern occupier requirements, including DDA compliance, flexible space, air conditioning, broadband provision, car parking and ‘own- front-door’ premises. Restricting additional office floorspace provision could contribute to delivering these improvements within the existing stock.
• Further to this, there is a need to continue to deliver and ensure the presence of purpose built office accommodation within Shuttleworth Mead Business Park and Altham Business Park to complement larger-scale development coming forward in Burnley town centre.
28 Annual Business Inquiry, 2007 (latest data available)
January 2010 95 Burnley Borough Council Padiham Town Centre Retail, Office & Leisure Study
16. CONCLUSIONS
16.1 The study has been commissioned to assess the future quantitative capacity and qualitative need for new retail, leisure and office provision within Padiham town centre. The study is informed by a PPS4 compliant healthcheck assessment and a robust survey-based exercise (household telephone, in-centre shopper and retail business surveys) in order to provide a comprehensive evidence base for the Borough Council to finalise its Area Action Plan (AAP).
16.2 On the basis of the outputs of the respective assessments and with the aim of proactively planning for the enhancement of Padiham as a vital and vibrant town centre destination, we set out specific recommendations below.
CONVENIENCE RETAIL
16.3 Our quantitative assessment clearly shows that Padiham does not perform a main food shopping function for local residents; existing convenience facilities within the town centre only claim 14.7% of main food expenditure from the immediate Padiham catchment (zone 2) and overall 8% market share from the wider catchment (zones 1-4 together).
16.4 The household survey clearly shows that most local residents look towards large mainstream foodstores in surrounding centres (Asda, Tesco Extra in Burnley) to meet their main food shopping needs. This outflow of expenditure from Padiham is primarily attributable to quantitative and qualitative deficiencies in the existing town centre convenience offer with the Co-Op, Tesco Express and local independents all primarily performing a local top-up function. Whilst contributing to the vitality of the town centre, existing convenience provision is relatively small and lacks the full retail and service offer that modern mainstream foodstores provide.
16.5 Given the existing outflows of expenditure from the immediate Padiham catchment, it is our view that a new foodstore in the town centre would deliver significant regeneration and sustainability benefits through increasing expenditure retention in the town, promoting linked shopping trips within the existing town centre and reducing outward journeys to competing centres. A new modern foodstore anchor would enable Padiham to perform its intended role in the retail hierarchy as a key service centre serving a wider rural hinterland.
16.6 We consider that provision of a new foodstore in Padiham will also deliver wider economic and social benefits given that it would represent a major investment in the town and would generate substantial employment opportunities for the local community.
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16.7 Whilst the PPS4 impact assessment undertaken has identified potential negative impacts of the foodstore on the wider town centre in terms of the potential to increase vacancies and actually reduce the diversity of the convenience retail offer, we consider that the wider positive benefits identified outweigh negative concerns in this instance. The primary impacts of a new foodstore will predominantly be on competing stores in surrounding centres and whilst it is highly likely that the trading performance of the existing Co-Op and local provision will be reduced, the potential for enhanced linked trips within the centre is a particular positive. The current levels of deprivation in Padiham also support new provision.
16.8 On this basis, we recommend that the Borough Council seek to construct a positive policy framework to support a new foodstore within Padiham town centre through the AAP / LDF process. As detailed in our quantitative analysis, the floorspace capacity figure identified in our assessment should not be treated as a ceiling but as a broad benchmark given that there is significant additional qualitative support arising from the fact that the town centre is located within a deprived area.
16.9 Any new foodstore provision within Padiham town centre should be of an appropriate scale so as to enable it to potentially compete on a like-for-like basis with existing provision in surrounding centres and to provide a genuine and viable alternative for local residents.
COMPARISON RETAIL
16.10 With respect to comparison goods, the town clearly has a limited offer and performs a minor supporting role to Burnley in the borough retail hierarchy. The survey results indicate that the town centre only secures an overall 4.2% market share for comparison goods from its immediate catchment (zone 2) and just 2.9% from the overall wider catchment (zones 1-4).
16.11 It is clear that local residents look towards larger centres for their main comparison shopping given the existing deficiencies in the town centre retail offer which is extremely limited and primarily focused upon small independent shops.
16.12 It is our view that Padiham will continue to operate as a secondary destination in the borough retail hierarchy with limited prospect of achieving a significant enhancement in its market share performance. Whilst there is quantitative scope to enhance the town’s market share performance, the town by virtue of its close geographic proximity to Burnley is unlikely to compete on a like-for-like basis. Given the current strategy of retailers to locate in the larger centres so as to benefit from linked shopping trips and higher footfall, it is unlikely in commercial terms that the multiple comparison retailers required to enhance market share performance would locate in the town centre.
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16.13 The overriding priority for Padiham town centre, given its existing physical constraints and lack of development sites, should be on securing a new foodstore within the town centre to drive footfall and promote linked trips with existing independent provision. The provision of comparison floorspace within a modern foodstore, which normally comprises clothing, entertainment and homeware items, will have a positive effect on existing market share performance given that the survey indicates that local residents visit the large mainstream foodstores in Burnley for some of their comparison shopping.
BULKY GOODS RETAIL
16.14 The town centre presently secures a 10% bulky goods market share from its immediate Padiham catchment (zone 2). Its overall market share from the wider catchment (zones 1-4) is only 6.9%. The survey results indicate that the majority of local residents in Padiham look towards bulky goods retail warehouse provision in Burnley to meet their shopping needs.
16.15 In terms of forward strategy for Padiham, whilst there is clearly scope for quantitative and qualitative enhancement, given its close proximity to Burnley and the preference for bulky goods operators to locate in retail warehouse park destinations in sub-regional centres which serve large catchments, we consider that there is limited prospect of the town centre achieving a significant market share enhancement.
16.16 It is our view that should any sequentially preferable, centrally located sites become available within the town centre, priority should be given to quantitative and qualitative enhancement of the town centre convenience retail offer in order to enhance vitality and viability.
LEISURE
16.17 Our assessment has sought to identify local visitation patterns for a variety of leisure activities including cinema, bingo, health and fitness and socialising. Whilst the survey exercise found that most local residents in the wider Padiham catchment (zones 1-4) travelled to the large Apollo multiplex in Burnley to visit the cinema, we consider that there is no realistic scope or overriding need for the Borough Council to proactively plan for new cinema provision in Padiham through the AAP / LDF process.
16.18 The town is located in close proximity to large-scale cinema provision in Burnley, Blackburn and Accrington and there would be limited commercial demand in our view for new provision in Padiham given the recent preference for leisure operators to locate in sub-regional centres which can draw from larger catchments.
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16.19 With respect to health and fitness provision, the Borough Council has recently committed significant funds to the refurbishment and modernisation of the existing public leisure centre in Padiham town centre and we therefore do not consider that there is an overriding need to proactively plan for new health and fitness provision in the town. Any private sector proposals which do emerge for private health and fitness facilities should be assessed in accordance with the relevant policy tests (PPS6 / draft PPS4).
16.20 In terms of the evening economy in Padiham, the existing offer is predominantly focused on traditional bars and pubs and the primary policy focus should be on effectively managing the existing concentration of Class A3 – A5 leisure uses (including hot food takeaways) through a number of initiatives including maintaining and strengthening the existing non-retail fascia policy (10%) set out in both the adopted Local Plan and emerging AAP.
16.21 The Borough Council should also seek to promote the diversification of the current evening economy offer towards more family orientated establishments. It should however be recognised that the prospects of attracting national chains (restaurants) to the town centre will be particularly limited given the proximity of Padiham to larger sub-regional centres, the lack of commercial leisure facilities (national chain restaurants prefer to locate in areas of high footfall) and the existing catchment demographic profile (older population and less affluent).
OFFICES
16.22 A detailed quantitative and qualitative assessment of existing office provision and future demand has been undertaken as part of the study. It is clear that Padiham currently performs a localised office function in the wider borough and sub-region with a limited supply of traditional ‘above shop’ office premises. The existing office-based offer in Padiham town centre is in need of modernisation to meet current office market requirements.
16.23 In terms of forward need and requirements, we understand that there is limited commercial demand for new office premises in Padiham town centre; the town does not have a sub- regional market presence and will continue to perform as a secondary location in comparison to Burnley town centre and also the modern Shuttleworth Mead Business Park.
16.24 In promoting any office-based development through the AAP / LDF process, the focus should be on delivering small office accommodation which meets local needs and is potentially attractive to small start-up occupiers.
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