48030-001: Strategy for Northeast Asia Power System Interconnection

Technical Assistance Consultant’s R eport

Project Number: 48030-001 February 2020

Mongolia: S trategy for Northeast Asia Power S ystem Interconnection (Cofinanced by the Climate Change Fund, the People’s R epublic of China R egional Cooperation and Poverty R eduction Fund, and the R epublic of Korea e-Asia and Knowledge Partnership Fund)

Prepared by E lectricite de France Paris, France

For the Ministry of E nergy, Mongolia

This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents.

TA 9001-MON: Strategy for Northeast Asia Power S ystem Interconnections

EDF References: CIST – DCO – PhL – 18 - 209

This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents.

Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

FOREWORD

The project Team would like to thank:

- The Ministry of Energy of Mongolia for easing direct discussions with the National Dispatching Center, TRANSCO and Public Entities in Mongolia

- The ADB’s Country Coordinators of Mongolia, People’s Republic of China, Republic of Korea, Japan for their support: Mongolia: Mr. Byambasaikhan PRC: Ms. Geng Dan (Danna) ROK: Mr. Jung-Hwan Kim Japan: Mr. Omatsu Ryo and Mr. Shota Ichimura

Here is a reminder of the place of the Module 5 in the Project organization:

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 10

1 MONGOLIA STRATEGY ON POWER DEVELOPMENT ...... 18

2 MONGOLIA EXISTING ENERGY POLICY (2030) ...... 20 2.1 Organizations of Mongolian power sector ...... 21 2.2 Regional energy system ...... 22 2.3 Tariffs ...... 24 2.4 Tariffs for renewable energy sources ...... 27 2.5 Single Buyer Model...... 29

3 PLANNED GENERATION DEVELOPMENT ...... 30 3.1 2020 – Target 1 ...... 30 3.2 2026 – Target 2 ...... 33 3.3 2030 ...... 35 3.4 2036-Target ...... 37 3.5 Conclusions of Generation Analysis ...... 39

4 DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF MONGOLIA POWER GRID FOR RENEWABLE GENERATION DEVELOPMENT . 42 4.1 RENEWABLE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS FOR MONGOLIA ...... 42 4.2 Renewable Generation Development Site in Mongolia ...... 42 4.3 Design Principles for Renewable Generation Base Connections In Mongolia ...... 44 4.3.1 Connection Schemes for Large Renewable Generation Bases ...... 44 4.3.2 Transmission Technologies for North East Asia Interconnections ...... 45 4.3.2.1 High Voltage DC Technologies ...... 46 4.3.2.2 High Voltage AC Technologies ...... 49 4.3.2.3 Comparison of HVAC and HVDC Technologies ...... 49 4.4 SCENARIO 0 ...... 53 4.5 SCENARIO 1 « +5GW » - 2026 ...... 53 4.6 SCENARIO 2 « +10GW » - 2036 ...... 58 4.7 SCENARIO 3 « +100GW » - LONG TERM ...... 63

5 DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF NORTHEAST ASIAN POWER INTERCONNECTIONS TO EXPORT RENEWABLE GENERATION ...... 67 5.1 Key Assumptions ...... 67 5.2 Economic Power Flow between Northeast Asian Countries ...... 68 5.3 Transmission Grid Development Plan in Northeast Asian Countries ...... 68 5.3.1 China ...... 68 5.3.1.1 Power demand prediction ...... 68 5.3.1.2 Network Development Plan in China ...... 70 5.3.1.3 Interconnection Plans ...... 72 5.3.2 ROK ...... 75 5.3.2.1 Demand Forecast ...... 76 5.3.2.2 Grid Development ...... 76 5.3.2.3 Interconnection Plans ...... 78 5.3.2.4 Identification of Sites for Interconnections to China, Russia, and Japan ...... 79 5.3.3 Japan ...... 81

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

5.3.3.1 Demand ...... 82 5.3.3.2 Grid ...... 83 5.3.3.3 Interconnection Plans ...... 85 5.3.3.4 Transmission Capacity Headroom ...... 86 5.3.3.5 Identification of Converter Station Sites ...... 86 5.3.3.6 Alternative Converter Station Site for Interconnection to Russia Far East Utilizing Ultra Deep Marine Cabling Technology ...... 88 5.3.4 Russia Siberia and Far East ...... 90 5.3.4.1 Demand ...... 91 5.3.4.2 Grid Development ...... 92 5.3.4.3 Interconnection Plans ...... 93 5.3.4.4 Converter Station Sites for Interconnection with Mongolia, China, Japan and ROK .... 95 5.3.5 Scenario 0 – Northeast Asian Interconnection Plan ...... 98 5.3.6 Scenario 1: Northeast Asia Interconnection Plan in 2026 ...... 99 5.3.7 Scenario 2: Northeast Asia Interconnection Plan in 2036 ...... 101 5.3.8 Scenario 3: Northeast Asia Interconnection Plan in 2036 ...... 104

6 INVESTENT COST OF NAPSI INTERCONNECTION PROJECTS ...... 110 6.1 Methodology ...... 110 6.1.1 Interconnector Investment Costs ...... 110 6.1.2 Estimation of Interconnector Line Length ...... 111 6.2 Unit Costs of Transmission Technologies ...... 111 6.2.1 Unit Cost of LCC-HVDC ...... 111 6.2.2 Unit Costs of HVAC ...... 114 6.2.3 Unit Costs of VSC-HVDC ...... 115 6.2.4 Losses ...... 116 6.3 Assessment of Northeast Asian Interconnection Project Costs ...... 116 6.3.1 Scenario 0 ...... 116 6.3.2 Scenario 1 ...... 116 6.3.3 Scenario 2 ...... 120 6.3.4 Scenario 3 ...... 123

7 RECOMMENDATIONS AND SEQUENCING OF NORTHEAST ASIA INTER-CONNECTION PROJECTS ...... 129 7.1 Analysis of Mongolian Transmission System and NAPSI Interconnection Development 129 7.2 Recommendations for Mongolia Power Network Development ...... 131 APPENDIX A: SOURCE OF KEY CONSTRAINTS FOR RES ASSESSMENT (GIS TOOL)...... 135 APPENDIX B: DESCRIPTION OF POWER SYSTEM ANALYSIS SOFTWARE PACKAGE ...... 136 APPENDIX C: ANALYSIS OF MONGOLIAN TRANSMISSION NETWORK IN 2020 ...... 140 APPENDIX D: ANALYSIS OF EAST CHINA UHV GRID FOR NAPSI INTERCONNECTION ...... 160 APPENDIX E: BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF OTHER STUDIES ON NORTH EAST ASIA INTERCONNECTION ...... 173

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

LIST OF TABLES Table 1 : Mongolia strategy on power development ...... 19 Table 2 : Functions of related organizations ...... 22 Table 3 : The electricity prices for ordinary household ...... 25 Table 4 : The electricity prices for enterprises ...... 26 Table 5 : Tariffs for the electricity from Renewable Energy plants ...... 28 Table 6 : Generation Development in Target 1 (2020) ...... 32 Table 7 : Generation Development in Target 2 (2020) ...... 34 Table 8 : Impact on Conventional Generation in 2030 ...... 36 Table 9 : Impact on Conventional Generation in 2036 ...... 38 Table 10 : Comparison of Generation Analysis Results ...... 40 Table 11 220kV Substations & Connection capacity ...... 43 Table 12 : HVDC Economic Transmission Distance under Different Operating Voltage ...... 46 Table 13 : Comparison of different OHL AC voltages and economic transmission distance 49 Table 14 : Advantages and Drawbacks HVDC vs HVAC ...... 52 Table 15 : Demand forecast in China ...... 69 Table 16 : Connection points and transfer capability of interconnectors under Scenario 3 ...... 75 Table 17 : Demand Forecast of ROK Power System ...... 76 Table 18 : Energy demand forecast in Japan ...... 83 Table 19 : Power demand in each area (Source: OCCTO 2017)...... 85 Table 20 : Demand Forecast in Russia ...... 91 Table 21 : Northeast Asian Interconnection Projects under Scenario 1 ...... 101 Table 22 Northeast Asian Interconnection Projects under Scenario 2 ...... 104 Table 23 : Converter Station Site Distance under Scenario 3 ...... 108 Table 24 : Cost Breakdown of Typical LCC-HVDC Converter Stations ...... 112 Table 25 : Estimated HVDC Line Costs ...... 113 Table 26 : Actual Average Cost of HVAC Overhead Lines in China (2011-2015) ...... 114 Table 27 : Average Actual Cost of HVAC Substation and Transformation Projects ...... 115 Table 28 : Summary of Interconnection Projects ...... 117 Table 29 : Summary of Interconnection Projects ...... 118 Table 30 : Investment Cost – Scenario 1 Integrated AC Configuration ...... 119 Table 31 : Summary of Interconnection Projects ...... 120 Table 32 : Summary of Interconnection Projects ...... 121

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

Table 33 : Summary of Interconnection Projects ...... 122 Table 34 : Summary of Interconnection Projects ...... 123 Table 35 : Summary of Interconnection Projects ...... 125 Table 36 : Summary of Costs under Scenario 3 Integrated AC Configuration ...... 127 Table 37 : summary of NAPSI Interconnector Projects ...... 129 Table 38 : Summary of NAPSI Investment Costs under Different Scenarios ...... 130

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 : Overview of related organizations in Mongolian Power sector ...... 21 Figure 2: Four Energy System in Mongolia ...... 23 Figure 3 : Procedure for Approval of Tariffs ...... 27 Figure 4 : Participants of Single Buyer Model in CES ...... 29 Figure 5 : Monthly RE Curtailment and Energy Not Supplied...... 33 Figure 6 : Monthly RE Curtailment and CENS in 2026 ...... 35 Figure 7 : Monthly RE Curtailment and EENS in 2030 ...... 37 Figure 8 : Monthly RE Curtailment and EENS in 2036 ...... 39 Figure 9 : Renewable Generation Development Site for Scenarios 1 -3 ...... 43 Figure 10 : Illustrative Power Connection for Large Renewable Generation Base ...... 45 Figure 11 : Illustrative Power Connection for Large Renewable Generation Base ...... 45 Figure 12 : XPLE Cable Operating in Marine Depth of up to 3000m (Prototype)...... 49 Figure 13 : Sensitivity of length of connection on transmission costs ...... 51 Figure 14 : Mongolia Transmission Network under Scenario 0 (2020) ...... 53 Figure 15 : Scenario 1 – Quarantined Configuration ...... 54 Figure 16 : Scenario 1Quarantined – Network Configurations and Simulation Results ...... 55 Figure 17 : Scenario 1 – Integrated Configuration ...... 56 Figure 18 : Integrated Configuration and Simulation Results ...... 56 Figure 19 : Scenario 2 -Integrated AC configuration ...... 57 Figure 20 : Scenario 2: Integrated AC configuration and Simulation Results ...... 58 Figure 21 : Scenario 2 - Quarantined Configuration ...... 59 Figure 22 : Scenario 2 - Quarantined Configuration ...... 59 Figure 23: Scenario 2: Integrated DC Configuration ...... 60 Figure 24: Scenario 2, Integrated DC configuration and Simulation Results ...... 61 Figure 25: Scenario 2 - Integrated AC configuration ...... 62 Figure 26: Scenario 2 - Integrated AC configuration and Simulation Results ...... 63 Figure 27: Scenario 3 – Quarantined Configuration ...... 64 Figure 28 : Scenario 3 – Integrated DC Configuration ...... 65 Figure 29 : Scenario 3 - Integrated AC Configuration ...... 65 Figure 30: Economic Power Transfer between Northeast Asian Countries ...... 68 Figure 31: Schematic diagram of power grid in eastern China...... 71 Figure 32: The basic power flow of power grid in eastern China...... 72

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

Figure 33 : Converter Stations for Interconnection between China and Neighboring Countries ...... 74 Figure 34: Power Flows Patterns ...... 77 Figure 35: The power stations are mainly distributed on the northwest and southeast coasts ...... 78 Figure 36: Converter station sites for Interconnection with China, Russia and Japan ...... 80 Figure 37: Operating frequency distribution map ...... 82 Figure 38 : Power Grid company responsible area map in Japan ...... 84 Figure 39：Interconnection between different regions ...... 84 Figure 40：Existing grid network diagram ...... 85 Figure 41: Converter Station Sites for Interconnection with Russia and ROK ...... 87 Figure 42 : Water Depth across the Sea between Japan and Russia Far East ...... 89 Figure 43 : Illustrative HVDC Cable Route between Japan and Russia Far East ...... 89 Figure 44: Russian power grid diagram ...... 93 Figure 45: Russian power grid geographical wiring diagram ...... 93 Figure 46 : Operation and Interconnection between Mongolia and Russia ...... 94 Figure 47 : Possible 500kV AC Interconnection between Russia and Mongolia ...... 95 Figure 48: Converter Station Sites for Interconnection with Neighboring Countries ...... 97 Figure 49: Scenario 0 - Northeast Asia Interconnection in 2020 ...... 98 Figure 50: Scenario 1 - Northeast Asia Interconnection under Scenario 1 ...... 100 Figure 51 : Scenario 2 - Northeast Asian Interconnection Plan ...... 103 Figure 52 : Scenario 3 - Northeast Asian Interconnection Plan ...... 106 Figure 53 : Sequence of NAPSI Interconnection Development ...... 134

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

PHYSICAL UNITS AND CONVERSION FACTORS cal calorie (1 cal = 4.1868 J) Gcal Giga calorie GWh Gigawatt-hour h hour km kilometer km² square kilometer kW kilo Watt kWp kilo Watt peak (solar PV) kWh kilo Watt hour (1 kWh = 3.6 MJ) MJ Million Joule (= 0,948.10–3 MBtu = 238.8 kcal) MW Mega Watt m meter pu per unit sqm Square meter t ton toe tons of oil equivalent tcf ton cubic feet °C Degrees Celsius

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ADB Asian Development Bank AUES Altai-Uliastai Energy System BTB Back To Back CAPEX Capital Expenditure CEPRI China Electric Power Research Institute CES Central Energy System CHP Combined Heat Power COD Date of commission DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea EES Eastern Energy System EENS Expected of Energy Not Supplied ERC Energy Regulatory Commission GESP Generation Expansion Simulation Programme GIS Geographical Information System HPP Hydro Power Plant HV High Voltage HVAC High Voltage Alternative Current HVDC High Voltage Direct Current IEA International Energy Agency LCC Line Current Commutated MCDA Multi-criteria decision Analysis MoE Ministry of Energy (Mongolia) MNT Mongolian NDC National Dispatching Center (Mongolia) NEA North East Asia NTPG National Power Transmission Grid (Mongolia) OHL Over Head Line O&M Operation and Maintenance OCGT Open Cycle Gas Turbine OPEX Operational expenditure PRC People’s Republic of China PV Photovoltaic RES Renewable Energy Source ROK Republic of Korea SES Southern Energy System TL Transmission Line TPP Thermal Power Plant UA Unit of Account USD United States Dollar VSC Voltage Source Converter

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Module 5 report is focused on transmission network development in Mongolia and interconnections between Northeast Asia countries. The report presents strategies on developing transmission networks to facilitate the exportation of large scale renewable generation in Gobi Desert and identifying and prioritizing interconnection projects that are necessary to evacuate renewable generation to load centers in NAPSI countries.

The report starts with the description of the current Mongolian energy development strategy, pipeline of network development plans, and Mongolian existing Energy Policy for 2030.

Three planning years are considered for the study presented in the report: 2020 (Target 1), 2026 (Target 2) and 2036 (Target 3). Three scenarios that would deliver objectives of these Targets were constructed in previous Module 2 (Market) and Module 4 (Generation) reports and are used as the basis for developing transmission networks inside Mongolia and also interconnection between NAPSI countries.

PLANNED GENERATION DEVELOPMENT IN MONGOLIA

According to previous ADB studies, National peak demand in Mongolia is expected to increase from 1388MW in 2020 to over 4338MW 2036. In order to meet the Mongolian State Policy on Energy 2015-2030 with significant renewable generation development 30% in 2030, major development and investment in generation will be required, especially flexible generation, for ensuring security of supply and managing variability and intermittency which are inherent in renewable generation.

Analysis carried out on the Mongolian generation development taking into consideration of winter heating requirements and renewable generation development showed that :

1) Over the next 20 years, demand in Mongolia is likely to treble to over 4338MW. This requires significant investment in both conventional and renewable generation in order to maintain an adequate level of security of supply. The annualized investment in conventional generation is estimated at $651m per annum by 2036. 2) Due to inherent uncertainty and intermittency of renewable generation, flexible generation are required to ensure operability of the system. However, as the generation system increases in size, the requirement for dedicated flexible plant falls as a proportion of total new generation, as the flexible resources required can be provided in large proportion by new conventional generation. 3) Government renewable generation target of 20% and 30% in 2023 and 2030, respectively, as a share of total installed capacity can be met provided that sufficient new and flexible generation is built.

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

As the new and more efficient generating plant is added to the system and also increased share of renewable generation, the CO2 intensity will reduce from 0.4 to 0.33 tCO2e per MWh.

DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF MONGOLIA POWER GRID FOR RE-NEWABLE GENERA- TION DEVELOPMENT

Based on the detailed study results of Mongolian renewable energy resources and their pri- oritized development areas carried out by the Module 4 report, Gobi Desert has been identified as the most suitable site for developing large scale renewable generation in Mongolia with phased development: Phase 1: 5GW renewable generation by 2026, Phase II 10GW by 2036, and beyond Phase II, 100GW. The scenario of 100GW (Scenario 3 in the report) has been developed to provide perspective and test the feasibility and impact of such a development would have on NAPSI interconnections.

 Scenario 0: “minGW” capacity in 2020, connected to Mongolian 220kV power grid, only for Mongolia electricity consumption. The “minGW” capacity refers to the available connection capacity to current 220kV substations.  Scenario 1: + 5GW in 2026, mainly for exportation to neighbouring countries.  Scenario 2: + 10GW in 2036 (therefore + 5GW between 2026 and 2036) for exportation to neighbouring countries as well.  Scenario 3: +100GW in the long term.

To facilitate large scale concentrated development of renewable generation in Mongolia, significant network and interconnection projects would be required to strengthen Mongolian power network and investment in cross countries interconnectors to transport renewable generation to load centres in northeast Asia countries.

Electricity transmission technologies, especially high voltage direct current (HVDC) technologies are advancing rapidly in both capacity and operating voltage levels. Current LCC-HVDC can operate at 800kV and above with design capacity of over 8GW. VSC-HVDC, due to tis inherent advantage and operational flexibility, are developing rapidly, and are expected to match the capacity and operating voltage of LCC HVDC in the future. In addition, submarine cables that are capable of being laid and operating 3000m under the sea offer the opportunity to significantly shorten the length of the interconnectors, such as Russia Far East and Japan.

Two strategies have been developed for designing transmission networks for evacuating renewable power from Gobi renewable generation base (Gobi RE base for short):

 Quarantined  Integrated Quarantined configuration is where the Gobi RE base network is physically segregated from the existing Mongolian 220kV transmission systems. Whereas Integrated configuration has an interconnection with the Mongolian 220kV transmission system. Integrated configuration is further divided into Integrated DC and Integrated AC options.

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

Integrated DC employs HVDC to connect the Gobi RE base with the existing 220kV system to minimize the impact of Gobi RE base. Integrated AC consists in a new 500kV transmission grid to be built overlaying on the existing 220kV one from southest to Ulaanbaatar, Erdenet, Darkhan to Russia. In addition, a 500kV half loop would be constructed from Banya Olgy in the west of the country to Telman and Ernet. Banya Olgy would be connected to Russia’s Kyzylskaya.

We have developed detailed models for Mongolian power network using the data provided. Gobi RE Base network consists of multi voltage levels collecting renewable from individual wind turbines and solar panels, which is stepped up progressively to the 500kV substation for connection to neighboring countries. Detailed analysis under different network configurations for each of the 4 Scenarios showed that the proposed network configurations and design are operationally and technically sound.

We consider that China plays a pivotal role in NAPSI interconnection and for integrating Gobi renewable generation due to its market size and also proximity to the Gobi RE base. Therefore, we have used detailed model of East China power network to investigate the impact of Gobi RE base and also identify sites for interconnector with Gobi RE base and its neighboring countries.

For each of NAPSI countries, we have identified most suitable sites and locations for interconnectors based on the strength of local transmission system. Connection at these sites might not in our view cause significant reinforcement to the local networks.

DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF NORTHEAST ASIAN POWER INTERCONNECTIONS TO EXPORT RENEWA- BLE GENERATION

The goal of the Scenario 0 is to determine the capacity of the Mongolian grid by 2020 (“minGW”). Assuming the existing grid in the southeast of Mongolian will be completely upgraded to 220kV, a total power of 300MW can be connected. Therefore, in this scenario, no new interconnection between NAPSI countries will be scheduled.

NAPSI interconnection schemes have been developed taking into consideration economic and energy exchange between different countries, technology development, geographical / geological conditions. Regarding technology, HVDC technologies will be the most suitable technologies for interconnections between Northeast Asian countries on the consideration of power and distances of interconnectors. Most of new HVDC overhead lines will be point to point over long distances, therefore, LCC technology will be recommended due to its performance in DC faults isolation. For undersea cables, LCC technology is also recommended as a primary option for point to point links. VSC option is recommended for the links between ROK and Japan to include Multi- terminal links and for enhanced flexibility

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

Cable and cabling technologies are critical for northeast Asia interconnection projects. Voltage levels of 525kV and 600kV for XLPE cables have been qualified or in qualification by different manufacturers. Technology in development for deep submarine cable of up to 3000 m gives the opportunity of new undersea line routing between Japan and Russia. Table below summarizes the interconnection schemes and total costs of schemes by scenarios

Sce- Config. Type No of In- Capacity Length (km) Comments nario tercon- (GW) Submarine Ca- OHL Total nectors ble 1 Quaran- LCC 6 13 1120 3760 4880 Including Russia FE – Ja- tined & In- HVDC pan deep sea cable tegrated DC Integrated HVAC 3 4 1010 1010 New 500kV lines in Mon- AC LCC 4 9 1160 2210 3370 golia not included HVDC 2 Quaran- LCC 8 18 1120 3760 4880 For majority of intercon- tined & In- nectors they are the tegrated same as Scenario 1, ex- DC cept for significant expansion of Gobi RE Base to China (to 6 GW) and expansion of China – ROK link to 4GW Integrated HVAC 3 5 0 1010 1010 Construction of a new AC LCC 3980 14 1120 2860 3980 500kV network in Mon- golia is not included 3 Quaran- LCC 16 139 1560 12780 14340 Use 800kV HVDC for rea- tined & In- sons of economy, route tegrated corridor and environmen- DC tal considerations. VSC 2 20 480 1010 1490 Include 4 terminal and 3 terminal VSC HVDC network for economy, route corridor, environmental considerations

Integrated LCC 16 134 1560 12780 14340 Use 800kV HVDC for rea- AC sons of economy, route corridor and environmental considerations.

VSC 2 20 480 1010 1490 Include 4 terminal and 3 terminal VSC HVDC network for economy, route corridor, environmental considerations

HVAC 3 5 0 1010 1010 Construction of a new 500kV network in Mon- golia is not included

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

The Table below compares the cost of Quarantined, Integrated DC and Integrated AC configurations under different scenarios.

Scenarios Mongolia China Russia ROK Japan Total Cost Range

($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m)

Scenario 1 Quarantined 1101 1265 1527 2033 1744 7670 6421 - 8916

Scenario 1 Integrated DC 1249 1265 1527 2033 1744 7818 6569- 9064

Scenario 1 Integrated AC 1159 1016 1424 2033 1744 7375 6314 - 8432

Scenario 2 Quarantined 1660 1898 1527 2178 1744 9007 7670 - 10340

Scenario 2 Integrated DC 1918 1898 1527 2178 1744 9265 7928 - 10598

Scenario 2 Integrated AC 1916 1888 1444 2178 1744 9138 7954 - 10316

Scenario 3 Quarantined 13405 19265 8304 10826 10956 62756 56413 – 69075

Scenario 3 Integrated DC 13663 19265 8304 10826 10956 63014 55999 - 68661

Scenario 3 Integrated AC 13658 18993 8235.5 10825 10956 62668 54959- 70266

The costs of the interconnectors are divided between the involved countries. The cost includes the new 500kV transmission system in Mongolia, the link between Gobi RE base and Mongo- lian transmission, and also the line between Russia Far East and Siberia, which are identified in this study under different scenarios and configurations, but it does not include costs that might be required for reinforcement to national transmission systems which are not explicitly identified in this study.

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

Gobi RE base, providing support to and also benefiting from Gobi renewable generation development. 3) Integrated AC configuration requires lower amount of total investment when compared with Integrated DC configuration it is $442m, $124m, $3.9b lower for Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively 4) Integrated AC configuration has the flexibility to expand in the most economic manner as Gobi RE base develops.

Therefore, it is recommended that the Integrated AC configuration be adopted as the preferred option for NAPSI Interconnection development.

RECOMMENDATIONS AND SEQUENCING OF NORTHEAST ASIA INTER-CONNECTION PROJECTS

The following recommendations are proposed for power network development for exportation of large scale renewable power in Mongolia

1) Mongolian is endowed with rich renewable generation resources, especially solar power. Wind and solar power should be developed in large scale and concentrated manner in the Gobi Desert (Gobi RE Base for short). The Gobi RE could be developed in phases with the 1st phase development of 5GW, 2nd phase 10GW, and so on. 2) Transmission system for Gobi RE base should be developed in the Integrated AC configuration manner which involves the construction of a new 500kV transmission system overlaying on the existing 220kV one in Mongolia. Gobi RE base would be fully integrated with the Mongolian 500kV transmission system. 3) Appropriate security and protection schemes should be put in place, such as renewable generation inter-trip schemes, voltage and stability monitoring and control systems, etc. This will ensure that the Gobi RE base and 500kV transmission system could operate safely against any contingencies.

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

Sequencing of NAPSI Interconnection Projects

NAPSI interconnection for exportation of large scale renewable generation in Mongolia (Gobi Desert) are recommended to proceed in 3 stages as envisaged by the 3 scenarios. This will allow sufficient interconnection capacity to meet expansion of Gobi RE base. This is shown below:

Phase I (2026): Gobi RE base to reach 5GW

 Development of Gobi Re base 500kV substation

 Construct new 500kV AC transmission system overlaying on the existing 220kV one in Mon- golia

 Darkhan (Mongolia) – Buryatia (Russia) 500kV AC  Kyzylskaya (Russia) -Emnegov (Mongolia) 500kV AC

 Uprating Oyutolgoi –Hohhot (China) 500kV AC  Weihai (China) – Sinsiheung (ROK) 500kV , LCC HVDC, 3GW

 Vladivostok –DPRK-Donghe (ROK) 500kV, LCC-HVDC, 2GW  Hadong (SK) – Hino (Japan) 500kV LCC-HVDC, 2GW

 Primorsky (Russia FE) – Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, 500kV, LCC-HVDC, 2GW

Phase II (2036): Gobi RE base to reach 10GW

 Expand China (Weihai) – ROK (Sinsiheung), 500kV, LCC-HVDC to 4GW from 3GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base ) – China (Baotou), 500kV, LCC HVDC, 4GW

Phase III (2036 +): Gobi RE base to reach 100GW

 Mongolia (Gobi RE Base) – Russia Siberia (Buryatia), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Upgrade Mongolia (Gobi RE Base)– China (Baotou) to 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base)– China (WuLanChaBu), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base) – China (HeLinHe), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Russia Far East (Vladivostok) – China (Harbin), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 7GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base)– China (Tangshan Nan), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base) – China (Tianjin Nan), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 10GW

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 Mongolia (Gobi RE Base) – China (Bazhou), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Uprate China (WeiHai) – ROK (Sinsiheung) to 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 10GW  China (WeiFang) – ROK (Hwasung), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 10GW  China (Linyi) – ROK (Hwasung), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 10GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base) – China (Jinan)), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base)– China (Nanyang), 1100kV, LCC-HVDC, 10GW  Russia FE (Vladivostok) –DPRK-ROK (Donghe), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 10GW  ROK (Hadong) – Japan (Hino/Takahama/Ooi), 4 terminal VSC HVDC, 8GW  ROK (Yasan) – Japan (Hokubu/Nishi-gumma ), 3 terminal VSC HVDC, 12GW  Russia FE (Primorsky) – Japan (Minamiiwaki), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW

This is illustrated in figures below

Scenario 1 : 5 GW Scenario 2 : 10 GW Scenario 3 : 100 GW

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1 MONGOLIA STRATEGY ON POWER DEVELOPMENT

The State Policy on Energy 2015-20301 is a policy document for implementing measures to improve the legal environment, optimize organizational structure of the sector, utilization of energy resources, constituting fuel reserve, electricity and heat generation and its supply activities, develop public-private partnership, transform the sector into a regulated competitive market and the capability development of the industry personnel. The policy document sets six different strategic goals for the Mongolian energy sector:

1. Create an integrated energy system that is reliable and flexible with sufficient generating capacity reserve to serve the domestic demand 2. Establish a fair long term agreement on power export and import agreement with neighboring countries and implement capability to export wind and solar power to the North- east Asian countries on a large scale 3. Improve the quality of local training for engineers and technicians to match international standards and develop an institution focused on energy economy, energy production, testing and adjustment studies 4. Establish a regulated and competitive market where tariff and pricing system is based on real cost which will allow an appropriate profit level to ensure financial soundness of the sector and encourage private investment in the sector 5. Utilize advanced technology in controlling and supervising energy generation, transmission distribution and supply activities and reducing the loss thereof and create a nationwide energy efficiency and savings measures. 6. Reduce adverse environmental impacts of conventional power generation, through legal and tax measures, by promoting renewable energy investments to increase the share of renewable energy in total installed capacity up to 20% in 2020 and 30% in 2030. Solar, wind, biomass, liquid and gas fuel, geothermal, fuel cell and other new sources should be utilized for power generation while creating a system where surplus energy could be supplied to the grid.

1 Parliament resolution #63 of June 19, 2015

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The above policy is to be implemented in two stages as summarized below:

Table 1 : Mongolia strategy on power development

Criteria 2014 (baseline) 1st stage: by 2023 2nd stage: by 2030 Reserve margin of -10% No less than 10% No less than 20% electricity generation installed capacity Reserve margin of 3% No less than 10% No less than 15% heat generation installed capacity in major cities Level of profit in -16.22% 0% 5% electricity tariff of Cen- tral region of Mongolia Own usage of ther- 14.4% 11.2% 9.14% mal power plants Transmission and 13.7% 10.8% 7.8% distribution loss (excluding Oyu Tolgoi) Share of renewa- 7.62% 20% 30% ble energy capacity of total installed capacity Emission of green- Equal to 0.52 ton Equal to 0.49 ton Equal to 0.47 ton house gases for per CO2 CO2 CO2 Gcal energy generation Amount for reduc- 0% 20% 40% ing building heat loss Introduction of High pressure Subcritical technol- Supercritical and technological advance- technology ogy, usage of natural ultra-supercritical tech- ment gas, large capacity bat- nology, hydrogen using tery storage system, technology, technology pumped storage plant using solar thermal energy

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2 MONGOLIA EXISTING ENERGY POLICY (2030)

The Mongolian Electricity sector has been unbundled into generation, distribution, transmission and dispatching companies. Electricity is supplied through four regional energy systems. The electricity transaction market is operated in the Central Energy System which is the largest energy system in Mongolia and covers Ulaanbaatar and 13 Aimags or provinces. In 2015, the Mongolian parliament passed the State Policy on Energy, setting the target for the country’s energy sector goals.

Coal-fired power plants generate approximately 90 per cent of total electricity generated in Mongolia but they have many problems; low efficiency due to the facilities aging, large electricity losses in a power plant and poor peaking capability. On the other hand, Renewable energy sources including hydro, wind and solar power sources generated 8 per cent of total electricity. In recent years, many projects to construct renewable energy power plants have been advanced. However, the progress has been generally slower than expected.

Coal-fired power plants have sold electricity at a lower tariff than real generation cost following the guidance of government and the national government has been subsidizing the over- all power sector from the national budget every year.

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2.1 Organizations of Mongolian power sector

Figure 1 : Overview of related organizations in Mongolian Power sector

The Ministry of Energy (MOE) is in charge of policy making for this sectors and Energy Reg- ulatory Commission (ERC) is of the regulation of the generation, transmission, distribution, dispatching, and supplying energy. This sector has been unbundled into generation, distribution, transmission and dispatching companies and facilitated privatization of them since new energy law was approved in 2001. And generation, distribution, transmission and dispatching companies have been converted to joint stock corporations.

The functions of related organizations are indicated below.

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Table 2 : Functions of related organizations MOE ● In charge of policy making for energy sector ● The policy area includes the development of energy resources, energy use, the import and export of energy, the construction of power plants, lines and networks, energy conservation, the use of renewable energy sources, the monitoring of the sector, the approval of rules and regulations for the sector and international cooperation ERC ● ERC is an independent regulation authority, self-funded by the license fees and in charge of the regulation of the generation, transmission, distribution, dispatching, and supplying energy ● The main functions are to issue the operational licenses, to review and approve the tariffs of the licensees, to protect equally the rights of the consumers and licensees as well as to create condition for fair competition among the generators and suppliers Dispatching ● National Dispatching Center (NDC) is in charge of dispatching ● NDC has been granted a dispatching license by ERC. The Func- tions are permanent control, operative coordination and regulation of the voltage in the grid, temperature and pressure of industrial stream and water distribution lines ● NDC operates the electricity wholesale market on “Single Buyer Model” monopolistic basis Transmission ● National Power Transmission Grid (NPTG) is in charge of transmission ● NPTG is a state-owned stock company conducting the activity in electricity transmission among generators and distribution companies, export and import from neighboring country, serves of maintenance, installation, testing, calibration and incidental services of transmission lines and substations Generation and ● There are 10 electricity generation companies including 2 wind Distribution farm, 2 solar PV and 16 distribution companies ● Even privatization of generation and distribution companies has been facilitated, only Darkhan-Selenge Electricity Distribution Network has been privatized

2.2 Regional energy system

Electricity is supplied through four regional energy systems; Central Energy System (CES), Western Energy System (WES), Eastern Energy System (EES) and Altai-Uliastai Energy System (AUES).

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Figure 2: Four Energy System in Mongolia2

CES is the largest energy system in Mongolia. CES covers 13 aimags including big cities such as Ulaanbaatar, Eldenet, and Darkhan. Umnugobi aimag where our site is located is also included in CES. CES has an electricity demand of around 729MW which is equivalent to approximately 95% of the total electricity demand in Mongolia. The total generation capacity in CES area is 1049MW3 and the shortage is covered by electricity import from Russia. In this area, developments of Tavantolgoi coal mine and Oyutolgoi copper mine in south Gobi region lead to a larger increase in a demand of electricity4.

WES covers Uvs aimag, Bayan-Ulgiy aimag and Khovd aimag with a total electricity demand of 20MW5.

EES covers two aimags in eastern part of Mongolia with a total demand of 36MW14.

Altai-Uliastai energy system covers Gobi-Altai in Zavakhan Province with a total demand of 13MW14.

CES has been connected with EES, Altai-Uliastai energy system and Russian electricity network. Transmission Line (TL) between EES and Altai-Uliastai energy system is a capacity of

2 National Power Transmission Grid, “NATIONAL POWER TRANSMISSION GRID STATE OWNED STOCK COMPANY” 3 ERC “Statistic book of energy sector” 2017. 4 World Bank, “SOUTHERN MONGOLIA INFRASTRUCTURE STRATEGY” 2010, p.56. 5 Energy Charter Secretariat , “In-depth review of the investment climate and market structure in the energy sector of Mongolia” 2013, p.61.

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110kV6. TL between CES and Russian is of 220kV.WES is also connected Russian electricity network7.

About 7.4 per cent of the electricity is imported from Russia. One industrial mine in south part of Mongolia directly imports electricity from China8.

Because CES has approximately 95% of the total electricity demand in Mongolia and Um- nugobi aimag where our site is located is also included in CES, Power generation, transmission and, Tariffs and its system in CES are described as follows.

2.3 Tariffs

Tariff structure for conventional power source

Tariffs are determined separately for each licensed activity by ERC; generation, transmission, distribution, dispatch and supply. The law of Mongolia on energy regulates the following principles for setting tariffs9.

● tariffs should be based on real costs of operations ● costs should be allocated to different consumer categories to their requirements on electricity and heat supply ● tariffs should enable regulation of energy consumption ● tariffs should ensure price stability ● tariffs should ensure that revenues of licensees are sufficient to support their financial viability ● the tariff structure for electricity and heat should be clear and understandable for consumers

6 National Power Transmission Grid, “NATIONAL POWER TRANSMISSION GRID STATE OWNED STOCK COMPANY” 7 CEA, “THE ENERGY SECTOR IN MONGOLIA” p.2. 8 Energy Charter Secretariat, “In-depth review of the investment climate and market structure in the energy sector of Mongolia” 2013 9 Energy Charter Secretariat, “In-depth review of the investment climate and market structure in the energy sector of Mongolia” 2013, pp.55-56.

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The consumer prices are shown below.

Table 3 : The electricity prices for ordinary household10 Type Unit Price (VAT excluded)

1. Single meter A Monthly usage within MNT/ kWh 110.3

150 kWh

B Monthly usage over MNT/ kWh 130.1

150 kWh

2. Double meter A Daytime (06:00-21:00) MNT/ kWh 116.2 (hourly) B Night time, midnight MNT/ kWh 89.0

(21:00-06:00)

C Basic charge MNT/month 2,000.00 Type Unit Usage

3. Fixed price Ordinary household kWh Avg. monthly usage (no meter) within 350

10 Energy Regulatory Commission tariff set as of July 31, 2017

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Table 4 : The electricity prices for enterprises11 Type Unit Price (VAT excluded)

1. Mine, processing plant

(mining and processing/ refinement of coal, petroleum, gas, iron, other mineral)

1.1 Normal meter MNT/kWh 167.8

1.2 Triple meter (hourly)

a Daytime (06:00-17:00) MNT/kWh 167.8

b Nighttime (17:00-22:00) MNT/kWh 287.9

c Midnight (22:00-06:00) MNT/kWh 89.0

2. Ordinary corporation, factory, legal entity

2.1 Normal meter MNT/kWh 140.4

2.2 Triple meter (hourly)

a Daytime (06:00-17:00) MNT/kWh 140.4

b Nighttime (17:00-22:00) MNT/kWh 221.7

c Midnight (22:00-06:00) MNT/kWh 89.0

2.3 Electric trolleybus MNT/kWh 89.00

3. Street and public area lighting in Ulaanbaatar or aimag center

3.1 October-March

a Daytime (06:00-19:00) MNT/ kWh 140.4

b Night-time (19:00-06:00) MNT/ kWh 89.0

3.2 April-September

a Daytime (06:00-22:00) MNT/ kWh 140.4

b Nighttime, midnight(22:00-06:00) MNT/ kWh 89.0

ERC reviews and approves the tariffs of the licensees, and develop and publish tariff determination methodology and procedures for review and examination of tariffs12. According to the law of Mongolia on energy, the tariffs shall be based on the real cost of operation.

11 Energy Regulatory Commission tariff set as of July 31, 2017 12 The Law of Mongolia on Energy, Article 9.1.4

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However, it is pointed out that CHPs have sold electricity at a lower tariff than real generation cost following the guidance of government13. Subsidy from government applied to the power sector widely (method of determination of subsidy is shown in figure below). In the 2015 Gov- ernment Budget, subsidies amount 200.5 billion MNT which is equivalent to 46.8% of total expenditures in energy sector (428.5 billion MNT).

There was a plan to introduce a so-called “indexation” method for tariff setting to take into account inflation of cost component14. Mongolian energy sector will start to operate under market prices from 2014 based on parliament regulation N72 approved in 2010. However, noth- ing started in 2014.

The movement which considers reduction of and new setting of electricity prices in night time for the purpose of demand boosting in night time, and the movement which increase consumer prices for the purpose of subsidy reduction applied to the power sector widely are seen in recent years15.

Figure 3 : Procedure for Approval of Tariffs 16

2.4 Tariffs for renewable energy sources

Tariffs for renewable energy sources have been regulated by the Law on Renewable Ener- gies. ERC shall set tariffs of energy generated and supplied by renewable energy source connected to a grid within the tariff range shown in the following table. For energy of generated and supplied by independent renewable energy power source, regulatory boards of

13 The Japan research Institute, “Global Warming Mitigation Technology Promotion Project Report”, 2014.8., p.23. (in Japanese) 14 Asian Development Bank, “ENERGY SECTOR POLICY REVIEW”, Mongolia: Updating the Energy Sector De- velopment Plan, 2013.9., p.18. 15 Our hearing survey 16 Source: prepared by author base on various materials

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Aimags and the capital city shall also set tariffs within the tariff range shown in the following table.

The Mongolian government revised the Law on Renewable Energies in July 2015, but the tariffs for the electricity from renewable energy sources remain the same.

Table 5 : Tariffs for the electricity from Renewable Energy plants

Source Type Capacity Tariff range (USD/kWh)

～ Solar Grid-connected 0.150 0.180 ～ Independent 0.200 0.300 ～ Wind Grid-connected 0.080 0.095 ～ Independent 0.100 0.150 Hydro Grid-connected ~ 5,000kW 0.045～0.060

Independent ~ 500kW 0.080～0.100

501 ~ 0.050～0.060 2,000kW

2,001 ~ 0.045～0.050 5,000kW

According to the Law on Renewable Energies, a transmission licensee shall purchase electricity supplied by a generator at tariffs approved17. In Salhkit wind farm case, however, NDC sometimes restricted supply of electricity for the purpose of mitigation a negative impact on CES in nighttime18.

17 The Law on Renewable Energies, Article8 18 In the CES, a nighttime electricity demand is often smaller than a nighttime electricity generation. In that case, NPTG sells electricity to the Russian network at 1.5cent/kWh which is lower than generators’ tariffs. Continu- ous purchase of electricity generated from renewable energy sources will only compound NPTG’s losses during night-time.(our hearing survey)

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2.5 Single Buyer Model

In the CES, the electricity transaction market is operated with Single Buyer Model (SBM) in which one organization buys electricity from generators and sells to distributors19. SBM has been implemented since 2002.

In the CES, the Single Buyer is NPTG, which purchases electricity from 10 generating companies at regulated tariffs and through imports from Russia and sells it to 16 electricity distribution companies at the regulated tariff20.

Figure 4 : Participants of Single Buyer Model in CES21

The Special condition of SBM in the CES is that ERC approved the Cash flow regulation as a main principal of SBM22. In the CES, payments from consumers are collected into the “Zero balance” account of distribution companies and further collected into the “Zero balance” account of NTPG. Then according to the predefined formula and coefficients, payments are distributed to generating companies23. Spot and auction market also have been in place in the CES since 2005 and 2007. The regu- lator is NDC. SBM is a transition operational model for Mongolia. ERC plans to develop necessary rules and regulations to transit to a new electricity market structure24.

19 SBM has been in place in developing countries. Ganjuur Radii et al., “EVOLUTION OF THE POWER MAR- KET STRUCTURE IN MONGOLIA” 2005, p.8. 20 Energy Charter Secretariat, “In-depth review of the investment climate and market structure in the energy sector of Mongolia” 2013, p.64.; Ganjuur Radii et al., “EVOLUTION OF THE POWER MARKET STRUCTURE IN MONGOLIA” 2005, p.5. 21 National Power Transmission Grid Web site 22 Ganjuur Radii et al., “EVOLUTION OF THE POWER MARKET STRUCTURE IN MONGOLIA” 2005, p.5. 23 Ganjuur Radii et al., “EVOLUTION OF THE POWER MARKET STRUCTURE IN MONGOLIA” 2005, p.5. 24 Energy Charter Secretariat, “In-depth review of the investment climate and market structure in the energy sector of Mongolia” 2013, pp.66.

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3 PLANNED GENERATION DEVELOPMENT

Mongolian government has ambitious energy policy to address the power shortage issues. In 2015, Mongolian government published State Policy on Energy document, setting out plans to medium and long term goals of electricity energy development. By 2023, the plant margin would be increased to no less than 10%, and by 2030 no less than 20%. Renewable generation capacity will account for 20% and 30% of installed generating capacity by 2020 and 2030, respectively.

To meet the government goals, there are a number of projects being planned, these include CHP5 in Ulaanbaatar (450MW), TPP in Baganuur (700MW), TPP in Tavantolgoi (450MW), Egiin river HPP (220MW-310MW), TPP in Western Region of Mongolia (100MW), HPP on Khovd river (64MW) and TPP in Eastern region of Mongolia (Dornod Province-50MW).

In addition, about 300MW of wind and PV generation are currently planned or under construction, specifically, a 50MW wind farm will be installed near Ulaanbaatar, a 50MW wind farm will be connected to Tavantolgoi, and a 50MW wind farm is now under construction in Sainshand.

For solar PV generation, a 10MW is connected to Darkhan, some 200km north of Ulaanbaa- tar, a 10MW is operating in Ulaanbaatar, a 15MW is under construction in Zamiin Uud. In Choir, 2 projects with a total of 60MW are planned. In Ulaanbaatar, 2 projects totalizing 50MW are also planned.

These 300MW wind and PV farms are connected to existing 100kV or 220KV transmission system.

The model takes the assumption that existing fleet will operate until 2036 as no date of retire- ment of the existing plant is envisaged. If some existing units have to retire in the future (which is probable), it is assumed that they would be replaced in volume by new units.

3.1 2020 – Target 1

In 2020, the national peak demand in Mongolia is expected to reach 1390MW. Total installed capacity of wind and solar PV generation is 300 430MW. Reserve margin is set to obtain at least 5%. The model is firstly run assuming 100% absorption of renewable generation.

Additional conventional generation is identified so that The purpose of this study is to identify optimal amount of additional conventional generation required to meet rising demand taking

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The GESP model was run taking no consideration of operational and technical constraints of existing and new generating plant. However, plant breakdown is considered. The purpose of this study is to analyze the generation system to ensure that the generation can meet the demand (if the generator operational constraints are ignored).

Results showed that there is a small amount of curtailment in renewable generation and the supply reliability is 2.1%, which is considered adequate. The amount of additional conventional generation required is 100MW.

Next, the GESP model is executed again taking into consideration of operational and technical constraints of existing and new generating plant. Because of inflexible generation as described previously, results showed that without additional flexible plant, the expected un- supplied energy is about 20%.

Results are shown in Table 6:

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Table 6 : Generation Development in Target 1 (2020)

Year 2020 Peak Demand (MW) 1388 Total Generation 2150 Existing Generation (MW) 1120 Wind Generation (MW) 215 PV Generation (MW) 215 New Con. Generation on Security (MW) CHP (MW) 100 Non-CHP (MW) New Flexible Generation for Operability (MW) CHP (MW) 500 Non-CHP (MW) Reserve Margin (excl. Renewable Generation) (%) 24% Share of Renewable Generation (%) 20% Total investment in Conventional Gen ($m/year) 103 Total Electricity Production (GWh) Existing Generation (GWh) 4442 Wind Generation (GWh) 623 PV Generation (GWh) 389 New Con. Generation on Security (GWh) CHP (GWh) 513 Non CHP (GWh) New Flexible Generation for Operability (GWh) CHP (GWh) 1957 Non-CHP (GWh) Consumption (GWh) 8000 Heat Production (kGcal) 9540 Total operating costs ($m) Emissions CO2 Emissions(ktCO2e) 6914 CO2 Intensity (tCO2e/MWh) 0.86 Renewable Generation Curtailment (%) 2.1%

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It can be seen from Table 18 that reserve margin excluding renewable generation is about 24%, which is significantly higher than Mongolia government’s target of 10%. A higher reserve margin is required because of inflexibility of the existing generation and also increased amount of intermittent renewable generation. Please note that total investment cost includes annualized capital/debt servicing costs and OM costs, but exclude variable fuel costs for power and heat.

Figure 5 below shows monthly renewable generation curtailment and expected energy not supplied.

Scenario 1 - RE Output and Expected Energy Not Supplied 40000 120% 35000 100% 30000 25000 80%

20000 60% % MWh 15000 40% 10000 5000 20% 0 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month

RE Curtailemtn EENS RE Output Load

Figure 5 : Monthly RE Curtailment and Energy Not Supplied

3.2 2026 – Target 2

In Target 2, the peak demand in Mongolia is expected to increase to 2600MW. It is reasonable to assume that in order to meet government renewable energy target of 30% by 2030 the renewable 2026 should have a renewable energy target of 26%.

Like for target 1, 2, the GESP model was run twice to determine the amount of additional conventional generation required to meet the rising demand and that of flexible generation in order to ensure operability of the system taking into consideration of existing generation inflexibility and renewable generation intermittency.

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Results are shown in Table 7

Table 7 : Generation Development in Target 2 (2020)

Year 2026 Peak Demand (MW) 2600 Total Generation 4280 Existing Generation (MW) 1120 Wind Generation (MW) 530 PV Generation (MW) 530 New Con. Generation on Security (MW) CHP (MW) 1600 Non-CHP (MW) New Flexible Generation for Operability (MW) CHP (MW) Non-CHP (MW) 500 Reserve Margin (excl. Renewable Generation) (%) 24% Share of Renewable Generation (%) 26% Total investment in Conventional Gen ($m/year) 362 Total Electricity Production (GWh) Existing Generation (GWh) 3934 Wind Generation (GWh) 1536 PV Generation (GWh) 958 New Con. Generation on Security (GWh) CHP (GWh) 6821 Non CHP (GWh) New Flexible Generation for Operability (GWh) CHP (GWh) Non-CHP (GWh) 1605 Consumption (GWh) 15000 Heat Production (kGcal) 12406 Emissions CO2 Emissions(ktCO2e) 12360 CO2 Intensity (tCO2e/MWh) 0.82 Renewable Generation Curtailment (%) 4.3%

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Figure 6 shows monthly renewable generation curtailment and expected energy not supplied in 2026.

Scenario 2 - RE Curtailment and EENS In 2026 70000 120%

60000 100% 50000 80% 40000

60% %

MWh 30000 40% 20000 10000 20% 0 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month

RE Curtailemtn EENS RE Output Load

Figure 6 : Monthly RE Curtailment and CENS in 2026

3.3 2030

In 2030, peak demand in Mongolia would reach 3470MW.The renewable energy target set by the government is 30%.

Results are shown in Table 8.

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Table 8 : Impact on Conventional Generation in 2030

Year 2030 Peak Demand (MW) 3470 Total Generation (MW) 5920 Existing Generation (MW) 1120 Wind Generation (MW) 900 PV Generation (MW) 900 New Con. Generation on Security (MW) CHP (MW) 2000 Non CHP (MW) 500 New Flexible Generation for Operability (MW) CHP (MW) Non-CHP (MW) 500 Reserve Margin (excl. Renewable Generation) (%) 18.7% Share of Renewable Generation (%) 30% Total investment in Conventional Gen ($m/year) 517 Total Electricity Production (GWh) Existing Generation (GWh) 3844 Wind Generation (GWh) 2609 PV Generation (GWh) 1627 New Con. Generation on Security (GWh) CHP(GWh) 8432 Non CHP (GWh) 2108 New Flexible Generation for Operability (GWh) CHP (GWh) Non-CHP (GWh) 1525 Consumption (GWh) 20000 Heat Production (kGcal) 14683 Emissions CO2 Emissions(ktCO2e) 14319 CO2 Intensity (tCO2e/MWh) 0.72 Renewable Generation Curtailment (%) 8.5%

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It can be seen from Table 8 that a total of 3000MW new conventional power plant is required to meet the increasing demand, of which 500MW is flexible generation required to ensure the operability of the system. Total investment required is some $517m per year. The renewable generation share of installed capacity is 30% that meets the government renewable target for 2030. The average CO2 emission per MWh generated is 0.72. The reserve margin (excluding renewable generation) is 18.7%, which is lower than 20% of government target. This is because renewable generation is assumed to have zero capacity credit in calculating the reserve margin. However, in practice, the renewable generation con- tributes to the improvement in system supply reliability, which is why the reserve margin required is lower than in 2020, 2026 and also government target.

Figure 7 shows monthly renewable generation curtailment and expected energy not supplied in 2030

RE Curtailment and EENS In 2030 100000 120% 90000 80000 100% 70000 80% 60000

50000 60% %

MWh 40000 30000 40% 20000 20% 10000 0 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month

RE Curtailemtn EENS RE Output Load

Figure 7 : Monthly RE Curtailment and EENS in 2030

3.4 2036-Target

In 2036, peak demand in Mongolia is forecast to reach 4338MW. However, it is assumed that the share of renewable generation within the main system would be kept at the same level as for 2030, i.e. 30%. Results are shown in Table 9.

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Table 9 : Impact on Conventional Generation in 2036

Year 2036 Peak Demand (MW) 4338 Total Generation (MW) 7120 Existing Generation (MW) 1120 Wind Generation (MW) 1100 PV Generation (MW) 1100 New Con. Generation on Security (MW) CHP (MW) 2720 Non CHP (MW) 680 New Flexible Generation for Operability (MW) CHP (MW) Non CHP (MW) 400 Reserve Margin (excl. Renewable Generation) (%) 15% Share of Renewable Generation (%) 30% Total investment in Conventional Gen ($m/year) 651 Total Electricity Production (GWh) Existing Generation (GWh) 4432 Wind Generation (GWh) 3189 PV Generation (GWh) 1989 New Con. Generation on Security (GWh) CHP (GWh) 11619 Non CHP (GWh) 2900 New Flexible Generation for Operability (GWh) CHP GWh Non CHP (GWh) 1217 Consumption (GWh) 25000 Heat Production(kGcal) 18920 Emissions CO2 Emissions(ktCO2e) 18155 CO2 Intensity (tCO2e/MWh) 0.73 Renewable Generation Curtailment (%) 7.1%

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For the same reason stated in the case of 2030, the reserve margin (excluding renewable generation) is 15%.

Figure 8 shows monthly renewable generation curtailment and expected energy not supplied in 2036.

Scenario 3 - RE Curtailment and EENS In 2036 160000 120% 140000 100% 120000 80% 100000

80000 60% % MWh 60000 40% 40000 20% 20000 0 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month

RE Curtailemtn EENS RE Output Load

Figure 8 : Monthly RE Curtailment and EENS in 2036

3.5 Conclusions of Generation Analysis

National peak demand in Mongolia is expected to increase from 1388MW in 2020 to over 4338MW 2036. This, coupled with significant renewable generation development, requires major development and investment in generation, especially flexible generation, in order to ensure security of supply and manage variability and intermittency which are inherent in renewable generation.

Table 10 compares generation development in Mongolia against the 4 cases studied.

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Table 10 : Comparison of Generation Analysis Results

Year 2020 2026 2030 2036 Peak Demand (MW) 1388 2600 3470 4338 Total Generation 2150 4280 5920 7120 Existing Generation (MW) 1120 1120 1120 1120 Wind Generation (MW) 215 530 900 1100 PV Generation (MW) 215 530 900 1100 New Con. Generation on Security (MW) CHP (MW) 100 1600 2000 2720 Non-CHP (MW) 500 680 New Flexible Generation for Operability (MW) CHP (MW) 500 Non-CHP (MW) 500 500 400 Reserve Margin (excl. RE Generation) (%) 24% 24% 18.7% 15% Share of Renewable Generation (%) 20% 26% 30% 30% Total investment in Conventional Gen ($m/year) 103 362 517 651 Total Electricity Production (GWh) Existing Generation (GWh) 4442 3934 3844 4432 Wind Generation (GWh) 623 1536 2609 3189 PV Generation (GWh) 389 958 1627 1989 New Con. Generation on Security (GWh) CHP (GWh) 513 6821 8432 11619 Non CHP (GWh) 2108 2900 New Flexible Generation for Operability (GWh) CHP (GWh) 1957 Non-CHP (GWh) 1605 1525 1217 Consumption (GWh) 8000 15000 20000 25000 Heat Production (kGcal) 9540 12406 14683 18920 Emissions CO2 Emissions(ktCO2e) 6914 12360 14319 18155 CO2 Intensity (tCO2e/MWh) 0.86 0.82 0.72 0.73 Renewable Generation Curtailment (%) 2.1% 4.3% 8.5% 7.1%

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It is observed from Table 10 that:

4) Over the next 20 years, demand in Mongolia is likely to treble to over 4338MW. This requires significant investment in both conventional and renewable generation in order to maintain an adequate level of security of supply. The annualized investment in conventional generation is estimated at $651m per annum by 2036. 5) Due to inherent uncertainty and intermittency of renewable generation, flexible generation are required to ensure operability of the system. However, as the generation system increases in size, the requirement for dedicated flexible plant falls as a proportion of total new generation, as the flexible resources required can be provided in large proportion by new conventional generation. 6) Government renewable generation target of 20% and 30% in 2023 and 2030, respectively, as a share of total installed capacity can be met provided that sufficient new and flexible generation is built. 7) As the new and more efficient generating plant is added to the system and also increased share of renewable generation, the CO2 intensity will reduce from 0.4 to 0.33 tCO2e per MWh.

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4 DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF MONGOLIA POWER GRID FOR RE- NEWABLE GENERATION DEVELOPMENT

4.1 RENEWABLE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS FOR MONGOLIA

From the previous studies, four scenarios have been constructed for the future development of Renewables in Mongolia focused on both onshore wind power and ground mounted solar photovoltaic (PV):  Scenario 0: “minGW” capacity in 2020, connected to Mongolian 220kV power grid, only for Mongolia electricity consumption. The “minGW” capacity refers to the available connection capacity to current 220kV substations.  Scenario 1: + 5GW in 2026, mainly for exportation to neighbouring countries.  Scenario 2: + 10GW in 2036 (therefore + 5GW between 2026 and 2036) for exportation to neighbouring countries as well.  Scenario 3: +100GW in the long term.

Previous study in Module 4 has assessed that the potential of high quality Renewable resource is available for these four scenarios.

4.2 Renewable Generation Development Site in Mongolia

Scenario 0 For scenario 0, a total of 300MW renewable generation will be developed by 2020. This scenario complies with Mongolia’s strategy on renewables development and comprises the following sub-scenarios. These development consists of schemes which are already planned or under construction, including 50MW wind farm near Ulaanbaatar, 50MW wind farm connecting to Tavantolgoi, and a 50MW wind farm under construction in Sainshand. Based on the detailed modelling of Mongolia transmission systems, a number of studies have been carried out to determining the potential capability of each substation to connect renewable generation without causing significant reinforcement, in addition to the planned and ongoing upgrade and construction of new 220kV lines, scheduled to be commissioned in 2019.

The following 220kV substations and their maximum remaining connection capacity are as follows:

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Table 11 220kV Substations & Connection capacity

220kV Substation Name Min MW Max MW Mandalgovi 50 100 Songino & IKHB-4 150 250 Ulaanbaatar 50 100 Baganuur 50 100 Choir 150 200 Darkhan 50 100 New Oyutolgoi 50 100 Erdenet 150 200

Scenarios 1-3

For scenarios 1-3, the project team has carried out detailed renewable generation resource studies (please see Module 3 report for details). Based on a range of screening criteria, such as distances to the existing infrastructure, e.g. roads, power stations, etc, areas are ranked and best sites are identified for renewable generation developed. This is shown in Figure 9 below and is included in this report for completeness.

Figure 9 : Renewable Generation Development Site for Scenarios 1 -3

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The green box in the above figure shows the area of renewable generation for Scenarios 1-3. The area has been ranked as one of the best site for RE development and has a potential of over 1000GW solar power and 37GW wind power (please refer to Module 3 report for details).

Therefore, it is assumed that the renewable generation for Scenarios 1 to 3 would be developed in a concentrated, large scale manner.

4.3 Design Principles for Renewable Generation Base Connections In Mongolia

Development of renewable generation has two major impacts on Mongolia power system. Firstly, development of renewable generation will greatly relieve the current tight generation margin and improve power supply reliability. On the other hand, renewable generation, due to its inherent variability and intermittency, will exacerbate the difficulties and increase the complexity in operating the power system in Mongolia. Secondly, the development of renewable generation will require significant development and upgrade in transmission network in Mongolia.

4.3.1 Connection Schemes for Large Renewable Generation Bases

In general, depending upon the strength of the local power system and the magnitude of RE power base, there are two types of connections schemes. They are

1) Quarantined scheme. Under this scheme, renewable generation will be developed in both concentrated manner and developed as a large scale wind and/or PV farm. It will be physically segregated from the Mongolian main transmission system, and its output will be collected and transmitted to neighboring countries with dedicated power network, as shown in Figure 10. In this case, the large renewable generation base has no or minimal impact on the Mongolian main power system, especially conventional generation.

2) Integrated scheme: Under the integrated scheme, as shown in Figure 11, the renewable generation base is connected with the main Mongolian transmission system. Their impact on Mongolian generation system will greatly depend upon the operating mode of interconnectors, for example, whether the interconnector is operated in a constant, variable or pro- filed transfer mode.

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Figure 10 : Illustrative Power Connection for Large Renewable Generation Base

– Quarantined Configuration

Figure 11 : Illustrative Power Connection for Large Renewable Generation Base

– Integrated Configuration

4.3.2 Transmission Technologies for North East Asia Interconnections

There are two types of technologies that can be used in connecting and transmitting large scale renewable generation to load centres and also for interconnection between Northeast Asia countries. They are

- High voltage DC transmission - High Voltage AC transmission

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4.3.2.1 High Voltage DC Technologies

Since the first DC transmission project went into operation for connecting Gotland island to Sweden in 1954, more than 100 HVDC transmission projects have been built in the world with a total capacity of over 700GW, particularly in US, China, Brazil, Europe, Japan and India. HVDCs are usually used to transmit power from large generation development, such as hydro, renewable generation, which are located in remote areas with little or no local demand, to load centres that are usually located hundreds or thousands of kilometer away. HVDC are also used to interconnect power systems of different countries or systems that operate in different frequencies.

HVDC technologies can be categorized into line current commutated direct current (LCC- HVDC) and voltage source commutated direct current (VSC-HVDC). LCC-HVDC relies on Ac system line current for commutation, thus requires healthy AC system demand to maintain commutation, and is therefore prone to commutation failures under AC system fault or significant voltage disturbances. It also absorbs significant amount of reactive power during operation, and thus requires installation of a large amount of reactive power compensation and harmonic filtering equipment. Whereas, VSC-HVDC relies on its own voltage source for commutation and uses IGBT technology operating at high frequency modulation. It does not suffer from commutation failure and also does not require large amount of reactive compensation and harmonic filtering equipment. However, VSC-HVDC currently has a much higher losses due to high frequency switching than LCC-HVDC. It is also significantly more expensive.

a) LCC-HVDC

Currently, HVDC transmission typically operates at ±500kV, ±660kV, ±800kV, ±1100kV although other voltages can be used depending upon the nature and size of the project. The economic transmission distance for ±500kV HVDC is estimated at less than 800km, ±660kV at 800km~1100km, ±800kV at 1100km~2300km, and ±1100kV at 2300km~4500km. Trans- mission losses are less than 7%. This is shown in the table below:

Table 12 : HVDC Economic Transmission Distance under Different Operating Voltage

Voltage (kV) Transmission Capacity (MW) Economic Distance (km) ±500kV 3500 <800 ±660 4600 800~1100 ±800 8000 1100~2300 ±1100 10000 2300~4500

The majority of HVDC projects in the world operates at ±660kV, ±500kV or lower. However, there have been a number of HVDC projects commissioned in China and Brazil that operates

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In general, LCC-HVDC technologies are more suited for point-to-point transmission of large amount of power from remote generation to load centres and also interconnection between different asynchronous power systems.

b) VSC-HVDC

Since the first VSC-HVDC transmission project was commissioned by ABB in 1997, VSC- HVDC has experienced rapid development in the world. Currently there are 16 VSC-HVDC projects that are in commercial operation or under construction. VSC-HVDC are used for connecting renewable generation, cross country interconnection, interconnection of weak AC systems, etc. as it occupies a much smaller footprint and does not require large amount of compensation and filtering equipment.

VSC-HVDC is ideally suited for connecting remote renewable generation to the main grid, such as offshore windfarms. According to ENTSO-E, European Network of Transmission System Operator for Electricity, 10 VSC-HVDC projects are planned by 2025 for connection of offshore renewable wind generation and interconnection between European countries.

In China, the first VSC-HVDC project was commissioned in Shanghai in 2011 and operates at 30kV with a capacity of 18MW. In 2014, a 5-terminal VSC-HVDC project was put into operation at Zhoushan Island at east coast of Zhejiang province. The project operates at 200kV with a total capacity of 1000MW. In 2015, a VSC-HVDC project with a capacity of 1000mW operating at 320kV was commissioned in Fujian connecting Xia’men island to the main system. At present, VSC-HVDC network consisting of 4 terminals with DC circuit breakers is being constructed at Zhangjiakou in Hebei Province and Beijing to transport power from wind, PV and hydro/pumped storage to 2022 Winter Olympic venue in Zhangjiakou. Total capacity of the network is 3000MW. The project is due to be commissioned in 2019.

As the advancement of VSC-HVDC technologies accelerates over the next few years, the cost and losses of VSC-HVDC would be reduced significantly. It is likely that it would match the LCC-HVDC technologies in terms of capacity and operating voltages as well as the costs.

VSC-HVDC technologies are generally more flexible and do not suffer from commutation failures. Therefore, in addition to point-to-point connection, they are also used in multi-terminal configuration and HVDC networks.

So far VSC technology has been used only for underground or undersea cables. In this report, we assume that the VSC-HVDC technology would be comparable with LCC-HVDC in 2030 in

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c) Hybrid LCC and VSC HVDC configurations

New topologies of HVDC configurations are emerging and developing rapidly. One configuration is to combine the LCC and VSC HVDC technologies to form hybrid HVDC transmission system, taking full advantages of LCC and VSC HVDC.

In May 2018, China South Grid (CSG) corporation announced a hybrid UHV LCC and VSC HVDC demonstration project operating at 800kV with a capacity of 8GW that transport Wu- DongDe hydro power from Yunan province to load centres in Guangxi and Guangdong provinces. HVDC converter station used at WudongDe is LCC HVDC and those at load centres at Guangxi and Guangdong is two terminal VSC-HVDC such that the power could be distributed to these two load centres which are hundreds of kilometers apart. The transmission distance is estimated at 1489km.

In this report, we assume that this hybrid VSC and LCC HVDC configuration would be mature enough by 2036 to be used for interconnections between Northeast Asia countries.

d) Submarine Cable and Cabling Technologies

Cable and cabling technologies are critical for northeast Asia interconnection projects.

The choice of voltage also depends on the current existing technology, especially for cables, including XLPE cables. Indeed, this technology is in a development phase with strong efforts made by different manufacturers regarding R&D. For example, in 2018, voltage levels of 525kV and 600kV for MI and XLPE cables have been qualified or in qualification by different manufacturers.

Research is on-going for developing 800kV submarine cables according to some manufacturers.

It has come to our attention that there is technology in development for deep submarine cable which will go down to 3000 m with prototype developed, this will nearly double the existing record of water depth for submarine cable. If we take the assumption that the cable will be qualified in mid-term, it allows us to consider submarine interconnection between Japan and Russia.

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Figure 12 : XPLE Cable Operating in Marine Depth of up to 3000m (Prototype)

4.3.2.2 High Voltage AC Technologies

AC transmission is the most common type of technologies used to transporting power from generation to end consumers. AC transmission voltages currently operating in the world include 220kV, 275kV, 330kV, 400kV, 500kV, 750kV, and 1000kV. Because of the physical characteristics of AC technology, different voltages have their natural transmission distance as shown in the table below.

Table 13 : Comparison of different OHL AC voltages and economic transmission distance

Voltage (kV) 110 220 500 750 1000 30~60 100~500 600~1500 900~2400 5000~10000 Capacity (MW) ≤100 100~300 400~1000 600~1500 1000~2000 Distance (km)

The highest AC voltage in commercial operation is 1000kV and can be found in China where a national transmission system operating at 1000kV is being constructed.

4.3.2.3 Comparison of HVAC and HVDC Technologies

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a) Technical comparison

Electrical power is generally generated as an alternating current (AC). It is also transmitted and distributed as AC and, apart from certain traction and industrial drives and processes, it is consumed as AC. In some circumstances, however, it is economically and technically advantageous to introduce direct current (DC) links into the electrical supply system.

In some situations, it may also be the only feasible method of power transmission. When two AC systems cannot be synchronized or when the distance by land or cable is too long for stable and/or economic AC transmission, DC transmission is used. At one “converter station” the AC is converted to DC, which is then transmitted to a second converter station, converted back to AC, and fed into another electrical network.

HVDC transmission applications can usually be classified into five categories and any scheme usually involves a combination of two or more of these:

 Transmission of bulk power where AC would be uneconomical, impracticable or subject to environmental restrictions.  Transmission of power through cables (submarine or land cable) where AC would be uneconomical or impracticable.  Interconnection between systems which operate at different frequencies, or between non- synchronized or isolated systems which, although they have the same nominal frequency, cannot be operated reliably in synchronism.  Addition of power infeed without significantly increasing the short circuit level of the receiving AC system.  Improvement of AC system performance by fast and accurate control of HVDC power.

Design of an HVDC link requires to make the following choices:

 Technology type: LCC or VSC  Voltage level  Configuration type: symmetrical monopole, asymmetrical monopole, bipole (with or without metallic return)

The choice of DC transmission voltage level has a direct impact on the total installation cost. At the design stage an optimisation is done finding out the optimum DC voltage from investment and losses point of view. The costs of losses are also very important - in the evaluation of losses, the energy cost and time horizon for utilisation of the transmission have to be taken into account. The choice of voltage also depends on the current existing technology, especially

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Technology choice is based on different aspects: technology availability at power/voltage requirements; impact of losses on cost; grid requirements at each converter station; multi-terminal compatibility; etc.

Configuration type is usually influenced by system considerations (maximum power loss) as well as environmental considerations (use of sea electrodes for example).

HVAC requires constructions of switching bays and overhead lines/cables across the transmission distances, whereas HVDC requires a construction of converter stations at both end of the DC lines and also overhead lines/cables. Converter station include converter transformer, valves, compensation equipment and filtering banks.

b) Economic Comparison

In general, for the same transmission capacity cost of HVDC converter station is much higher than the AC switch bays, the HVDC lines are cheaper on the unit cost basis. Considering losses, HVDC converter stations add a significant part but transmission losses are lower in DC than in AC. Taking into account losses, the breakeven distance is therefore smaller.

Over the past couple of decades, high voltage DC (HVDC) technologies have seen rapid development due to advances to DC technologies.

Figure 13 : Sensitivity of length of connection on transmission costs

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There’s a crossing point where the DC solution becomes cheaper than AC. The corresponding distance is called the breakeven distance. This given distance is around 40 km for cable and 500 km for overhead line according to GE, 50 km for submarine cable and 600-800 km for OHL, according to ABB. Beyond this point, HVDC is more economic than HVAC.

c) Advantages and Disadvantages of HVDC

In addition to the economic criteria, the Table below gives an overview of advantages and drawbacks of HVDC versus HVAC.

Table 14 : Advantages and Drawbacks HVDC vs HVAC

Advantages Drawbacks More power per conductor Converters are expensive Full Controllability of active power flow Converters generate harmonics (LCC (amount and direction) technology) HVDC (VSC Technology): inherent Converter losses (especially VSC Reactive Power Control capability en- technology) are significant abling AC Voltage control at both ends No transmission length limitation of Heavier offshore substations in HVDC large amount of power than in HVAC Use of Two conductors instead of three Lower reliability (tends to change) 30% of cost saving in line building DC breakers are developed but not yet installed as in a real meshed grid No skin effect VSC-HVDC is a quite new technology even though LCC-HVDC technology is nearly 60 years old No synchronous operation required Isolation and even mitigation of elec- tromechanical oscillations Isolation of AC faults

d) Technology Choice

From the above analysis, it is clear that HVDC technologies will be the most suitable technologies for interconnections between Northeast Asian countries on the consideration of power and distances of interconnectors.

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For overhead Lines, LCC technologies will be chosen because of isolation to DC faults and the fact that it will be mainly point to point bulk power lines over long distances. For undersea Cables, we choose LCC as a primary option because of technology, corridor issues and economic reasons. For Japan, we propose VSC option as the scenario includes Multi-terminal, therefore the system needs to be flexible.

4.4 SCENARIO 0

Under this scenario, a total of 300MW renewable generation would be developed by 2020 that meets Mongolian government policy and targets on renewable generation development. Upgrading and construction of new 220kV lines in the would be completed

Figure 14 : Mongolia Transmission Network under Scenario 0 (2020)

The Mongolian transmission system model has been constructed and analysis has been carried out to assess its economic and security conditions. Results are shown in Appendix A.

4.5 SCENARIO 1 « +5GW » - 2026

In this Scenario 1, 5GW new wind and solar PV are developed by 2026 and the whole electricity generated is exported to neighboring countries via either new HV transmission lines or upgrade of existing ones; new substations or upgrade of current ones are also envisaged. A 2GW interconnection with Russia and a 3GW one with China are envisaged. The two schemes are investigated:

- quarantined configuration

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- integrated DC configuration - integrated AC configuration

Detailed load flow and security analysis have been carried out and results could be found in Appendix C.

These are summarized below.

1) Quarantined

Under this configuration, the renewable generation base is physically segregated from the main Mongolia system, and all renewable generation output is to be exported to China and Russia, as shown in Figure 15

Figure 15 : Scenario 1 – Quarantined Configuration

Under this design, two converter stations would be built at Gobi renewable generation base, with one converter station connecting to Buryatia in Russia and the other connecting to Baotou in China. This is shown in Fig. 16

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Figure 16 : Scenario 1Quarantined – Network Configurations and Simulation Results

Simulation study showed that Mongolia power system and Gobi RE base could operate normally within its design capability. This shows that the quarantined configuration is a reasonable design.

2) Integrated DC

Under this scenario, Gobi RE base will be connected to Mongolia main system via B2B 250kV HVDC link in order to minimize the impact of Gobi RE base on Mongolian system in case of a blocking of one of the HVDC link to China and Russia. In addition, two HVDC link will be built to link Gobi RE base to Baotou in China and Buryatia in Russia Siberia. Figure 16 shows the configuration.

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Figure 17 : Scenario 1 – Integrated Configuration

Figure 18 shows the simplified diagram of Mongolian 220kV transmission system and connection configuration of Gobi RE base. Simulation results showed that the maximum injection power from Gobi RE base to the Mongolia main power grid is 560MW. Therefore, the DC link from Gobi RE base to Tavantolgoi is designed at 500MW.

RU SSIA _

Russia converter

G obi converter 1

G obi converter

G obi Energy Base

G B w ind ×6

G obi converter 2

Baotou Converter

CH IN A -Baotou 500kv A C system 500KV D C 500KV A C 220KV A C Figure 18 : Integrated Configuration and Simulation Results

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3) Integrated AC

Under this configuration, a new 500kV transmission system will be built overlaying on the existing 220kV one from Gobi RE base to Ulaanbaatar, Erdenet, Darkhan to Russia, the existing 220kV Mongol-China interconnector would be upgrated to 500kV. In addition, a 500kV half loop would constructed from Banya Olgy in the west of the country to Telman and Ernet. Banya Olgy would be connected to Russia’s Kyzylskaya. This shown in Figure 19 below

Figure 19 : Scenario 2 -Integrated AC configuration

The existing interconnection with China will be uprated to 500kV with a capacity of 2GW.

Figure 20 shows the simulation results.

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800KV D C Figure 20 : Scenario 2: Integrated AC configuration and Simulation Results

Security assessment carried out showed that the AC configuration as shown in Figure 20 would be able to meet system security requirements and operate safely.

4.6 SCENARIO 2 « +10GW » - 2036

In Scenario 2, an additional +5GW of wind solar PV are developed in the Gobi RE base between 2026 and 2036 and also 100% exported (therefore total wind and solar capacity is 10GW).

Under this scenario, 3 Gobi RE base connection configurations are considered. They are

- Quarantined - Integrated DC - Integrated AC

1) Scenario 2 – Quarantined Configuration Similar to Scenario 1 Quarantined configuration, Gobi RE base is physically segregated from the Mongolian transmission system and is exported to China and Russia with HVDC transmission lines, as shown in Figure 21.

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Figure 21 : Scenario 2 - Quarantined Configuration

The HVDC link to China would be upgraded to 800kV with a total capacity of 6GW, whereas the HVDC connection to Buryatia, Russia would remain unchanged at 500kV.

Figure 22 shows the simulation results.

Figure 22 : Scenario 2 - Quarantined Configuration

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Results showed that both Mongolian and Gobi RE base under this configuration can meet the security requirements and operate safely.

2) Integrated DC Configuration

Under this configuration, Gobi RE base would be connected to the Mongolian 220kV transmission system at Tavantolgoi 220kV substation via a 250kV B2B HVDC link. The capacity of the link is 500MW, as shown in the Figure 23 below.

Figure 23: Scenario 2: Integrated DC Configuration

Simulation results are shown in Figure 24 below

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× 1 RU SSIA

Russia converter

G obi converter 1

G B w ind G obi Energy Base

G obi converter 2 China converter 800KV D C CHCIHNIAN A 500KV D C 220KV A C Figure 24: Scenario 2, Integrated DC configuration and Simulation Results

It can be seen that with 500MW HVDC connection to Tavantolgoi, both Mongolian and Gobi RE systems can operate safely and meet system security requirements.

3) Integrated AC configuration

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Figure 25: Scenario 2 - Integrated AC configuration

The interconnection to China involves construction of a 500kV HVDC line from Gobi RE base to Baotou, China.

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Figure 26 shows the simulation results.

Figure 26: Scenario 2 - Integrated AC configuration and Simulation Results

Security assessment carried out showed that the AC configuration as shown in Fig.23 would be able to meet system security requirements and operate safely.

4.7 SCENARIO 3 « +100GW » - LONG TERM

Scenario 3 is only a long term +100 GW development of wind and solar PV in the Gobi RE base and the main purpose of the study is to confirm the potential and feasibility for future exportation.

Under this scenario, two configurations were envisaged for connecting and exporting output of Gobi RE base. They are

- Quarantined - Integrated DC - Integrated AC

Both option have been studied to assess the feasibility of 100GW development. Results are described below

In all three cases, renewable generation inter-trip schemes would have to be put int place so that appropriate amount of generation is tripped following a permanent fault on any interconnectors.

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1) Scenario 3: Quarantined Configuration

Similar to Scenarios 1 & 2, the Gobi RE base is physically segregated from Mongolian 220kV transmission System. Due to the size of the renewable development, there requires 8 HVDC transmission lines operating at ±800kV from Gobi RE base to China with a total capacity of 70GW, and one ±800kV from Gobi RE base to Russia with a capacity of 10GW. This is shown in Figure 27 below.

Figure 27: Scenario 3 – Quarantined Configuration Under this configuration, Mongolian transmission system will not be impacted upon by the Gobi RE base operation.

2) Scenario 3: Integrated DC Configuration

Compared with Quarantined configuration, Gobi RE base would be connected to the Monglian 220kV transmission system at Tavantolgoi with a 500kV B2B HVDC line with a total capacity of 1000MW. This is shown in Figure 28 below.

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Figure 28 : Scenario 3 – Integrated DC Configuration

Analysis have been carried out to assess the impact of Gobi RE base on the Mongolian transmission systems. Results confirms that with this configuration both Gobi RE base and Mongo- lian power system would be able to operate safely and meet system security requirements c) Scenario 3: Integrated AC Configuration

Compared with Scenario 2 Integrated AC configuration, additional 7x800kV HVDC interconnectors would be built from Gobi RE base to China, and also a 800kV HVDC line of 6GW capacity would be constructed from Gobi RE Base to Russia. This is shown in Figure 29.

Figure 29 : Scenario 3 - Integrated AC Configuration Under this configuration, Gobi RE base would interact strongly with Mongolia 500kV and 220kV transmission system. It is proposed that generator inter-trip scheme be installed at Gobi RE base such that appropriate amount of generation would be disconnected immediately following a fault on one of 9 interconnectors to China and Russia. In addition, other security and

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5 DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF NORTHEAST ASIAN POWER INTER- CONNECTIONS TO EXPORT RENEWABLE GENERATION

Development of renewable generation in Mongolia has two major impacts on Mongolia and Northeast Asian power systems. Firstly, providing the reinforcement of the Mongolian Grid development of renewable generation will greatly relieve the current tight generation margin, help to optimize base and semi-base generation and improve power supply reliability in Mon- golia. Secondly, development of large scale renewable generation in Mongolia presents op- portunities to building interconnections between northeast Asian countries. This will bring a number of benefits to the countries concerned, including but not limited to: improved supply security for countries concerned, increased economic benefits by pooling complimentary resources between countries, and achieving higher penetration of renewable generation. This chapter considers development plan of power network interconnections between northeast Asian countries in the context of large scale renewable generation development in Mongolia.

5.1 Key Assumptions

The following key assumptions are made in developing the northeast Asian interconnection plans

 The same assumptions for power fleet development of each country as in Module 2 report on Market will be taken  East China 1000kV Synchronous Transmission System is modeled in detail and development by SGCC taken into account.  Simplified models for transmission systems in Russia, ROK and Japan are elaborated  The capacity and location of interconnectors were identified in such a way that requires minimal or no reinforcement within these countries, except where clearly identified.  Simple assessment, combined with expert opinions/views from these countries are used as the bases of assessing the feasibility of the plan and identifying potential sites/locations for interconnectors.  Out of scope of the current studies:  No detailed analysis for reinforcement that may be required within these countries have been assessed.  Increased losses on national networks caused by interconnector flows are not considered although the interconnector power losses are considered.

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5.2 Economic Power Flow between Northeast Asian Countries

In Module 2 report on Market, the project team reported results of the economic power flow between northeast Asian countries based on detailed modelling and production simulation taking into account a range of factors, such as generation, demand, power market, renewable generation development plan, production costs, electricity prices in each countries, etc.

Economic power flows under different scenarios are repeated in this report for completeness and are shown in the Figure 30 below

Figure 30: Economic Power Transfer between Northeast Asian Countries

The production simulation forms the basis upon which the interconnector plans are developed.

5.3 Transmission Grid Development Plan in Northeast Asian Countries

5.3.1 China

5.3.1.1 Power demand prediction

In 2017, the maximum load of China is 993 GW. The average growth rate is 5.3% in the previous three years. According to the economic development goal of China, it is assumed that

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China's power demand growth rate will remain unchanged in the medium-to-high term for up to 2025, and then will drop slightly thereafter. The load growth information can be found in the following table (please note that figures are taken from Module 2 report).

Table 15 : Demand forecast in China25 Supply Region Unit 2016 2020 2026 2036 Demand

Demand TWh 1280 1449 1698 2050

Peak load GW 202 228 267 324 Hydro TWh 794 812 848 974

GW 65 104 147 220 Wind China-West Load Fac- 22% 23% 24% 26% tor

GW 35 79 161 278 PV Load Fac- 18% 18% 20% 23% tor Nuclear GW 0 0 0 0

Demand TWh 4274 4839 5672 6847

Peak load GW 672 763 894 1079 Hydro TWh 397 406 424 487

GW 91 146 206 310 Wind Load Fac- 22% 23% 26% 33% tor China-East

GW 43 139 301 547 PV

Load Fac- 16% 16% 18% 21% tor Nuclear GW 34 57 91 135

25 Strategy for NAPSI Module 2 report: Market and Power Trade Assessment. Table 1

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5.3.1.2 Network Development Plan in China

To accommodate large scale development of clean energy, some measures should be taken, such as expanding the scale of synchronous power grid and building inter-regional interconnected power grid, which makes it possible for complementarity and comprehensive utilization of renewable generation, achieve the large-scale of renewable energy development and accommodation in west area, and greatly relieve the environmental pollution and haze in eastern areas. China power grid in 2036 is expected to form the east and west ultra high voltage (UHV) synchronous grids operating at 1000kV.

In future, the UHV AC is the backbone of eastern power grid of China. The schematic diagram of power grid in eastern China can be found in Figure 3126.

26 James McCalley, Jay Caspary, Christopher Clack, Wayne Galli, Melinda Marquis, Ale Osborn, Antie Orths, Justin Sharp, Vera Silva , Peter Zeng, Wide area planning for electric infrastructures, IEEE power & energy magazine, November/December 2017

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Figure 31: Schematic diagram of power grid in eastern China.

Under normal operation mode, the power flow distribution and voltage level of the backbone network of the eastern power grid is reasonable and shown in Figure 32.

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1058.0 Hu Meng 2X 88.5 1070.5 1056.8 Daqing Xi Hong Cheng 770.9 2X419.1 2X

2X1024.8 2X724.7

1066.2 2X778.0 925.7 1059.8 Bai Cheng 2X 1067.7 1364.9 Harbin Dong 2X699.0 Huo Lin He 2X 1063.3 1058.5 Za Lu Te Changchun Dong 1062.8 2X141.3 1735.0 2X599.2 Sheng Li 2X 2X 1064.0 3326.3 2X801.6 Shenyang Dong 1075.8 1047.6 2X 603.8 1095.5 2X Wu Lan Cha2X Bu2329.8 Zhang Bei 1050.8 1061.7 1079.3 1077.5 788.0 Xi Meng 2X 2X Ba Tou 2X284.1 Chi Feng 2X725.3

3828.2 1063.5

3735.3 Ying Kou

2X 1055.0 1054.9 9824.1(2) 3828.2 1035.4 1040.6 1770.4 Jin Zhou Meng Xi2X1424.4 Beijing Dong 2X4118.9 Beijing Xi 2X 1047.0

2X 3039.3

1056.3 2305.5 2X Tang Shan

Jin Bei 2X2252.1 2) 1033.5

Tianjin Nan

2X3246.7 10570.1(

2X4558.4 2X 1055.0 3092.5 Jin Zhong 1036.3 2X4537.1 2X1902.3 Ji Nan 1046.8 2X190.0 1035.5 Shi Jia Zhuang Wei Fang

5881.6

2X2104.3 1033.0 2X3549.4

1023.7 2X3801.7 Zao Zhuang 1022.7 Jin Dongnan 2X2993.3 2X305.5 Lin Yi

1040.1 2X132.5 2126.1 4941.7

Dong Ming 1035.3 2X 2X1244.4 2X Xu Zhou

23308.5(3) 1014.4 3131.7 Lian Yun Gang

1039.5 4632.4 2X 2X 958.5 2X Nan Yang 3569.6 1040.6 2X 1007.2 1027.9 2X494.9 Wei Nan Tai Zhou Zhu Ma Dian 1031.0 2X2315.9 2X457.2 Nan Jing Figure 32: The basic power flow of power grid in eastern China.

Analysis shows that UHV transmission will have significant headrooms and ability to move power from remote generation to demand centres in large quantities. Therefore, UHV substations could be used as the connecting points for interconnectors to Mongolia, Russia and ROK. Detailed studies were carried out to assess the maximum capacity that might exist in Eastern China UHV power grid without causing additional significant reinforcement. Study results can be found in Appendix D

5.3.1.3 Interconnection Plans

State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) is actively promoting interconnection with neighboring countries under the Global Energy Interconnection GEI) initiatives. In particular Global Energy Interconnection Development Corporation as a primary objective of developing global interconnection using UHVAC and UHVDC technologies to transport renewable generations to load centres.

At present, SGCC has signed MOU with KEPCO, ROSSETI and Softbank to promote corporation and interconnection between northeast Asia countries.

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In December 2015, SGCC has signed an agreement with Mongolia government to build a 800kV UHVDC transmission line with a total capacity of 8GW from Shivee Ovoo to Tianjin27. At present, there is active discussion between KEPCO and State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) to construct a HVDC interconnection between the two countries. We understood that the feasibility studies are being carried out. The interconnection is most likely to be an HVDC interconnection with LCC-HVDC technology and have a capacity of 2GW operating at 500kV. The convertor stations are likely to located at southwest of Seoul in ROK and at Wei-hai substation in China.

1) Converter Station Sites for Interconnection with Mongolian Gobi RE base, ROK and Rus- sia

As described in Appendix D analysis, HVDC power transfer interconnection from Mongolian Gobi RE base could be managed by HVDC+UHVAC and P2P HVDC configurations. HVDC+UHVAC configuration is where HVDC lines were used to connect Mongolian Gobi RE base to the UHVAC substations where are closest to the border, and the power would then be dispersed and transported to demand through UHVAC network. The P2P HVDC configuration is where HVDC lines are used to transport power from Gobi RE base directly to the load centre in China, causing minimal disruption to UHVAC systems.

Figure 33 shows converter station sites under different scenarios.

(a) Scenario 1

27 http://sasac.gov.cn/n326638/c2118351/content.html

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(b) Scenario 2

Figure 33 : Converter Stations for Interconnection between China and Neighboring Countries

Table 16 below details the converter station sites in China for interconnection with Mongolia Gobi RE base, Russia, and ROK, including interconnection capacity under Scenario 3.

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Table 16 : Connection points and transfer capability of interconnectors under Scenario 3

No. Sending Receiving Voltage Capacity Connection Configu- country Country level MW rations

1 Mongolia Batou ±800kV 8000 HVDC+UHVAC

2 Mongolia Wu-lan-Cha- ±800kV 8000 HVDC+UHVAC bu

3 Mongolia Huo-lin-he ±800kV 8000 HVDC+UHVAC

4 Mongolia Bazhou ±800kV 8000 P2P HVDC

5 Mongolia Tianjin Nan ±800kV 8000 P2P HVDC

6 Mongolia Nanyang ±1100kV 12000 P2P HVDC

7 Mongolia Jinan ±800kV 8000 P2P HVDC

8 Mongolia Tangshan ±800kV 10000 P2P HVDC Nan

9 Weifang Korea ±800kV 10,000 HVDC+UHVAC

10 Weihai Korea ±800kV 10,000 HVDC+UHVAC

11 Lin Yi Korea ±800kV 10,000 HVDC+UHVAC

12 Harbin Russia ±800kV 7000 HVDC+UHVAC

5.3.2 ROK

In Korea, where there is a lack of primary energy, there is only a small amount of coal resources, and large quantities of oil, natural gas, etc. need to be imported. Power generation is mainly based on thermal power and supplemented by nuclear power. Its land area is small, but its power generation ranks the 9th in the world and it is the eighth largest consumer of crude oil in the world.

Due to its energy import-oriented features, ROK power stations are mostly concentrated in the port industrial area. In order to shorten the distance and save costs, most of the coastal areas of heavy industrial centers and power stations are distributed. There are 25 power stations in Korea, of which 72% are located in the port industrial zone, mainly in the northwest and southeast regions. The northwest is the economic zone centered on the capital Seoul,

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5.3.2.1 Demand Forecast

Table 17 gives demand forecast of ROK power system (please note that figures are taken from Module 2 report).

Table 17 : Demand Forecast of ROK Power System28 Supply Region Unit 2016 2020 2026 2036 Demand

Demand TWh 507 540 573 610

Peak load GW 85 90 98 108

Hydro TWh 6.5 7 7.2 8

GW 1 3 10 31 Republic of Korea Wind Load Fac- 20% 21% 22% 30% tor GW 5 9 22 52 PV Load Fac- 15% 16% 18% 21% tor

Nuclear GW 23 25 24 20

5.3.2.2 Grid Development

As shown in Figure. 34, the Korean power grid converges from the periphery to the inside, and the country's limited land leads to a tight grid structure.

- Most of the power stations are distributed along the coastline, and they can effectively use the advantages of port resources transportation, as shown in Figure 34;

28 Strategy for NAPSI Module 2 report: Market and Power Trade Assessment. Table 1

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- 70% of the terrain in the national territory is hilly, and the power transmission corridors are tense; - The electricity load is mainly concentrated in the developed coastal regions, so the Ko- rean power grid also shows a cobweb structure.

Figure 34: Power Flows Patterns29

29 Asian Pacific Energy Centre : Electric Power Interconnections in Notheast Asia (2015)

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765kV substation

345kV substation

Power plant

DC 180kV cable

Figure 35: The power stations are mainly distributed on the northwest and southeast coasts30

The transmission and distribution voltage levels of the Korean power grid include 765KV, 354KV, 154KV and 66KV. The power transmission is centered on the capital because it is Korea's key load center. The Northern Grid sends power to the surrounding area of Seoul through a 765kV transmission line, while there is no 765kV high-voltage line in the south. The rest of the area, such as Jeju Island, is basically an isolated power grid. It is connected to the peninsula through only 180 kV DC submarine cables. Its main power source is still a local power plant.

ROK's electric power system has developed rapidly. Its safety factor for power grids is high, and grid loss rate and outage time are at the forefront of developed countries. The annual power outage is less than 15 minutes and it is the shortest in the world. Due to the highly automated and refurbished facilities, transmission and distribution losses are less than 4%, making it one of the lowest-loss countries in the world.

5.3.2.3 Interconnection Plans

Due historical and political reasons, ROK is not electrically interconnected with DPRK. It has been considered unlikely that DPRK would be agreeable for a transit route to connect ROK to China’s Northeast or Russia that would pass through DPRK. However, since June 2018, the political situation is improving rapidly with face-to-face meeting taking place between North Korean, Republic of Korea, and American leaders. At moment, there is considerable

30 CEPRI: Northeast Asia Interconnection study Report (2017) (in Chinese)

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At present, there is active discussion between KEPCO and State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) to construct a HVDC interconnection between the two countries. We understood that the pre-feasibility studies have been carried out in 2017. The interconnection is most likely to be an HVDC interconnection with LCC-HVDC technology and have a capacity of 2GW operating at 500kV. The convertor stations are likely to located at southwest of Seoul in ROK and at Weihai substation in China.

5.3.2.4 Identification of Sites for Interconnections to China, Russia, and Ja- pan

As Seoul is the primary load centre in the country, the import from China would be connected to the west and south west of Seoul supplying demand to Seoul.

The sites for interconnection with Japan would be located southeast of the country which are close to the coast of Japan so as to minimize the cost of the interconnection.

Figure 36 shows the geographical location of sites identified suitable for interconnection with neighboring countries.

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(a) Scenario 1 & 2

(b) Scenario 3

Figure 36: Converter station sites for Interconnection with China, Russia and Japan

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Under Scenario 1 and 2, it is reasonable to assume that interconnection of 2-4GW HVDC line at Sin Siheung between China and ROK would not require significant reinforcement in the Northeast area of ROK transmission system, as Sin Siheung is a strong connection point and close to Seoul, the key demand centre. Similarly, 2GW interconnection at Hadong between ROK and Japan would not cause any reinforcement in the southeast part of the system.

Under Scenario 3, due to the size of interconnection with China and also with Japan, it is likely that some reinforcement would be required inside the ROK transmission system. How- ever, it is not clear how much this would be and it is assumed that it would be reasonably small compared with the savings that could be had with the choice of these converter stations.

Note: If we consider that N-1 the power exchange must not be affected by the outage of one element of the interconnection link, then the power of one DC single pole link of each interconnection must not exceed the power of the most important power unit of the involved countries. The most important power unit in operation in Korea is Shin-Kori-3 Nuclear plant, its net power is 1340 MWe (source: iaea.org). The step below is around 1000 MW, several nuclear plants have this power capacity (all the plants of Ulchin, Shin-Kori 1 & 2…). Some new 1400 MW nuclear reactors are under construction. It is uneconomic to build 30 GW of interconnections through 2-3 GW cables, therefore this report considers it more economic under Scenario 3 to build 3x10GW submarine HVDC cables. However, to comply with the proposition of N-1, a quick calculation will also be furnished of the scenario of 2-3 GW cables (part 7). On addition to the cost advantage of 3x10 GW solution, 15x2 GW might encounter land issues for converter station and corridors issues for significant number of cables. On further stage of the project, the choice of the cable system as well as safety rules should be studied.

5.3.3 Japan

Japan is the main energy-consuming country in Northeast Asia. It is mainly based on thermal power units and nuclear power plants. However, due to the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011, its nuclear power decreased from 288.3TWh in 2010 to 18.06TWh in 2016.

The Japanese electric power industry is operated by 10 transmission companies independently although cross regional cooperation has been increasing, especially after the de- regulation of retail business. Electric infrastructure comprises two main power grids: One

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Figure 37: Operating frequency distribution map31

Northern regions in Japan is rich in renewable energy resources. In March 2016, wind power generation in such places as Hokkaido, Aomori Prefecture, and Akita Prefecture ranked first three in the country with data of 318MW, 280MW, and 365MW, respectively. The eastern part of Japan, which is based in Tokyo Electric Power, is mainly based on thermal power generation (steam, gas), and power generation stations in Fukushima, Niigata and other power stations stop operating after a nuclear leak. Tokyo Electric Power can cope with the huge demand in its jurisdiction.

5.3.3.1 Demand

As it is a country with extremely low energy resources in Japan, energy basically depends on imports and fossil fuels account for a higher proportion of primary energy. Therefore, Japan's energy development plan is to increase primary energy self-sufficiency, improve energy structure, and vigorously develop renewable energy sources. The following table shows the electricity generation structure of Japan in 2020, 2026 and 2036 (please note that figures are taken from Module 2 report):

31 Asia Pacific Energy Centre: Power Interconnections in Northeast Asia (2015)

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Table 18 : Energy demand forecast in Japan32 Supply Region Unit 2016 2020 2026 2036 Demand

Demand TWh 879 888 900 918

Peak load GW 156 158 160 166

Hydro TWh 79 84 88 95

GW 4 6 8 55 Wind Load Fac- Japan 25% 26% 27% 30% tor

GW 41 64 72 100 PV Load Fac- 15% 16% 17% 19% tor

Nuclear GW 4 4 3 14

5.3.3.2 Grid

The Japanese power industry is operated independently by 10 companies, which together constitute the Japanese power grid. The following is a regional map of Japan electric power company and a grid diagram.

32 Strategy for NAPSI Module 2 report: Market and Power Trade Assessment. Table 1

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Figure 38 : Power Grid company responsible area map in Japan33

A 500kV-based national grid interconnection has already formed in Japan, with Eastern area having a power supply frequency of 50Hz and 60Hz in western. The voltage level of the high- voltage transmission line in operation also includes: 275kV, 220kV, 187kV, 154kV.Its power planning principle is to achieve a balance between supply and demand as much as possible, and there are fewer power transactions between companies.

Figure 39Interconnection between different regions34

33 FEPC, 2012, Electric Review Japan 2012, Tokyo : The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan 34 Imaizumi, D., 2012 « Shikumi zukai » Series : Electricity Supply (in Japanese). Tokyo: Gi- jyutsukyoron-sya

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Figure 40Existing grid network diagram35

Table 19 shows the power demand in each supply area

Table 19 : Power demand in each area (Source: OCCTO 2017)

2017FY Hokkaido Tohoku Tokyo Chubu Hokuriku Kansai Chugoku Shikoku Kyusyu Okinawa Total

Total demand 31152.73 82876.24 287493.7 135542.5 30542.63 147166 62242.02 28399.46 86427.65 8141.243 899984.136

(GWh)

Maximum demand 5248 14615 53825 24731 5414 26375.97 11029.13 5196 15745 1507.8 155804.337

(MW)

5.3.3.3 Interconnection Plans

As an island nation, Japan is currently not interconnected with its neighboring countries, such as ROK, Russia. And there are no plans that exist at this moment for such interconnections in the near future.

35 Imaizumi, D., 2012 « Shikumi zukai » Series : Electricity Supply (in Japanese). Tokyo: Gi- jyutsukyoron-sya

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5.3.3.4 Transmission Capacity Headroom

To minimize the impact the interconnectors could have on regional systems in terms of additional reinforcement, it is assumed that the maximal amount of import into each supply area should not exceed 20% of its peak demand. In addition, experiences have showed that the cost of onshore transmission line is more expensive than the offshore cables, due to high cost of land and severe constraint in wayleaves.

Transmission capacity headroom of critical circuits and boundary in Kansai, Chuguko, Kan- sai, Chubu, Tokyo and Tohoku areas have been studied using the actual information provided. Based on these analyses, the converter station sites have been identified under various scenarios.

5.3.3.5 Identification of Converter Station Sites

Taking into account a range of factors including geographic location, supply area demand and transmission system characteristics, a number of sites have been identified as suitable for HVDC interconnection with neighboring countries.

Figure 41 shows converter station sites.

(a) Scenario 1 & 2

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(b)

Figure 41: Converter Station Sites for Interconnection with Russia and ROK

Under Scenario 3, in order to minimize the cost of investment and taking into consideration of each supply area characteristics, multi-terminal HVDC system is proposed. Specifically, a 3 terminal HVDC at Hino, Takahama and OOi would be used with a total capacity of 8GW to connect to ROK, a 2-terminal HVDC would be used at Hokubu and Nishi-Gunma with a total capacity of 12GW to connect to ROK. Interconnection to Russia with a capacity of 8GW would be connected to Minamiiwaki via Hokkaido. Reasons for choosing multi terminal VSC HVDC are:

a) To maximize the route and corridor access of HVDC links. We have also considered alternative of using smaller 500kV HVDC links of 2GW each, which would require 10 HVDC links with undersea cables for connection to ROK alone, it is considered at this stage of our study that it would be difficult to find submarine and onshore corridors to accommodate so many HVDC lines. b) It is considered not possible for any one region in Japan to accept 20GW importa- tion, and it has to be dispersed to many different regions. VSC HVDC technology allows multi-terminal configurations to distribute the flows in an optimal manner.

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c) Our economic studies showed that there is frequent exchange of flows between Ja- pan and ROK systems in that power flows are expected to happen in both direc- tions. VSC HVDC technology offers the operational flexibility necessary for two way flow operation of the link.

Note: If we consider that N-1 the power exchange must not be affected by the outage of one element of the interconnection link, the power of one DC single pole link of each interconnection must not exceed the power of the most important power unit of the involved countries. At the time of the study, nuclear power plants have still not returned to services except of Sendai 1 and 2, Genkai 3 and 3, and Ooi 3 and 4, and Tajahama 4. The most important power units in operation are of 1197MW which is Genkai 4 unit. In addition, several fossil fuel thermal plants in Hitachinaka, Higashi Ohgishima, Kashima and Sodegaura are of 1000MW.

It is uneconomic to build 20 GW of interconnections through 2-3 GW cables, therefore this report considers that scenario 3 takes the hypothesis of 12 and 8 GW submarine cable system. However, to comply with the proposition of N-1, a quick calculation will also be furnished of the scenario of 2-3 GW cables (part 7).

5.3.3.6 Alternative Converter Station Site for Interconnection to Russia Far East Utilizing Ultra Deep Marine Cabling Technology

We have investigated alternative, shorter connection route between Russia Far East and Ja- pan using the new generation of XLPE cables that could operate and laid in marine depth of up to 3000m.

Figure 42 shows water depth around Japan and between Japan and Russia Far East.

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Figure 42 : Water Depth across the Sea between Japan and Russia Far East

Figure 43 shows potential HVDC cable routes between Japan and Russia Far East using cables operating for upto 3000m deep.

Figure 43 : Illustrative HVDC Cable Route between Japan and Russia Far East

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In this case, the undersea cable will land at Hokaido and then connect to overhead lines with converter station at Minamiiwake.

5.3.4 Russia Siberia and Far East

Geographically, Russia may be divided into three regions: Europe, Siberia, and Far East. The Russian power system is the fourth largest in the world.

The power system of the Russian Federation consists of the Unified Power System of Russia (seven integrated unified power systems, UPS) and territorially isolated power systems (Chukotka Autonomous Region, Kamchatka Territory, Sakhalin and Magadan Oblast, Norilsk The Taimyr and Nikolaev energy regions, the energy systems of the central and northern parts of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)).

The East Unified Power System is located on the Sino-Russian border area in northeastern China and consists of 3 regional power systems: Amur regional power system, Primorskiy regional power system, Khabarovsk regional power system (in South Yakutia, Amur, Khaba- rovsk and the Far East). The East Unified Power System currently has a maximum voltage rating of 500 kV. Transmission systems mainly consists of 500kV and 220kV overhead transmission lines with 500/220kV substations such as Svobodny, Rachikhinsk, Khabarovsk and Chernigovka linking 500kV and 220kV grids.

The East United Power System is formed by 20 power plants with a capacity of 5 MW and above, substations of a voltage of 110–500 kV with a total capacity of 33.9 million kVA and a transmission lines of 110–500 kV with a total length of 25 203.8 km. The total installed capacity of the the East Unified Power System is 9 501.5 MW36 (excluding the Nikolayev En- ergy District operating in isolation).

By 2024, the volume of demand for electric energy in the UPS of the East is projected at 44.682 billion kWh (the average annual growth rate for the period 2018-2024 is 4.32%)

The abundant coal resources, natural gas resources and hydraulic resources in Siberia provide prerequisites for the development of the power industry in the region. The Siberian Uni- fied Power System covers the eastern, central and western parts of Siberia. It spans 1 000 km from south to north and spans 4 time zones. The Siberian Unified Power System consists of 10 regional power systems.

The Siberian Unified Power System consists of 105 power plants with a total installed capacity of 51GW (as of 01/01/2018). The share of hydro power plants accounts for 25GW (48.7%), the share of thermal power plants – 26GW (51.2%), solar power stations - 55 MW (0.1%). The main electric network of the UPS of Siberia is formed on the basis of power lines

36 Data on 01/01/2018

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5.3.4.1 Demand

The entire Russian power grid load level is given in the following table (please note that figures are taken from Module 2 report):

Table 20 : Demand Forecast in Russia37 Supply Region Unit 2016 2020 2026 2036 Demand

Demand TWh 238 260 287 331

Peak load GW 35 38 42 49

Russia-Siberia Hydro TWh 108 108 117 124

Nuclear GW 0 0 1 2

Demand TWh 34 39 44 54

Peak load GW 5.5 6.3 7.2 8.8

Russia-Far East Hydro TWh 12 14 15 18

Nuclear GW 0 0 0 1

37 Strategy for NAPSI Module 2 report: Market and Power Trade Assessment. Table 1

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5.3.4.2 Grid Development

The Unified Energy System of Russia (UES of Russia) consists of 70 regional energy systems, which form 7 integrated unified energy systems:

UES of the East, UES of the Siberia, UES of the the Urals, UES of the the Middle Volga, UES of the the South, UES of the the Center UES of the the North-West.

All power systems are interconnected high-voltage power lines with a voltage of 220-500 kV and above and most of them operate in a synchronous mode (in parallel).

The UES of Russia includes 748 power plants with a capacity of over 5 MW. As of January 1, 2018, the total installed capacity of UES of Russia power plants was 239,812.2 MW.

The actual electricity consumption in the Russian Federation in 2017 amounted to 1,059.7 billion kWh (in the UES of Russia - 1,039.9 billion kWh)

In 2017, the generation of electricity by power plants in Russia, including the production of electricity by power plants of industrial enterprises, amounted to 1,073.7 billion kWh (in the UES of Russia - 1,053.9 billion kWh).

By the end of 2005, the total length of the 110 kV and above transmission lines in Russia was approximately 475,000 km, and the substation capacity was approximately 596 GVA. Most of the backbone grids of the United Grid use 220-500kV voltage levels. Due to historical reasons, the combined power grids in the northwest and central China have adopted voltage levels of 330-750kV. The development of high-voltage power grid technology in Russia started earlier. In the period of the former Soviet Union, 19kV, 220kV, and 500kV transmission lines were developed and established in 1922, 1933, and 1961, and 750kV and 1150kV transmission lines were constructed in 1967 and 1985. At present, the 500kV power grid has become the main grid of the Russian regional power grid, and the 750kV power transmission project is mainly used for power transmission from large-scale power plants to load centers.

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Figure 44: Russian power grid diagram

Figure 45: Russian power grid geographical wiring diagram

5.3.4.3 Interconnection Plans

In the context of Northeast Asia interconnection, there has been discussions to upgrade the existing links between Russia Far East and China .

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Currently Russia is interconnected with Mongolia at different voltage levels. Figure 46 shows the coordinated operation and interconnection between Russia and Mongolia

Figure 46 : Operation and Interconnection between Mongolia and Russia

One of the possible future interconnection between Russia and Mongolia is proposed by Ros- setti, which shown in Figure 47.

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Figure 47 : Possible 500kV AC Interconnection between Russia and Mongolia

5.3.4.4 Converter Station Sites for Interconnection with Mongolia, China, Ja- pan and ROK

Figure 48 shows the geographical location of converter station sites for interconnection with Mongolia, China, Japan and ROK.

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(a) Russia Siberia– Scenario 1 & 2

b Russia Far East – Scenario 1 & 2

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(c ) Russia Siberia – Scenario 3

(d) Russia Far East – Scenario 3 Figure 48: Converter Station Sites for Interconnection with Neighboring Countries

On the territory of Russia, for the interconnection of the UPS Siberia and the UPS of East, a DC-link is installed on voltage converters at the 220 kV substation Mogocha. The UPS of the East connected to the UES of Siberia by three 220 kV transmission lines.

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As there is only week connection between Russia Siberia and Far East areas, it is reasonable to propose that a 800kV HVDC line should be constructed to facilitate significant flows from Siberia to Far East.

As discussed in Sections 6.3.3 and 5.3, if the undersea cable operating under the water of up to 3000m is available, it is possible to find a undersea cable route from Vladivostok of Russia Far East to Hokkaido, significantly reducing the transmission length between these two countries.

5.3.5 Scenario 0 – Northeast Asian Interconnection Plan

This scenario describes the power network situation in northeast Asia in 2020. There is no planned new interconnectors being constructed at moment despite agreements signed between Mongolia and China, and China and ROK. The northeast Asia interconnection situation is shown in Figure 49 below

Figure 49: Scenario 0 - Northeast Asia Interconnection in 2020

The northeast Asian interconnection in 2020 are existing ones with no new interconnectors constructed.

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5.3.6 Scenario 1: Northeast Asia Interconnection Plan in 2026

Under this scenario, 3 configurations are considered: quarantined, integrated DC and integrated AC. In addition, a 500kV 3GW HVDC interconnector is built between China and ROK. This is shown in Figure 50.

(a) Quarantined Configuration

(b) Integrated DC

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Figure 50: Scenario 1 - Northeast Asia Interconnection under Scenario 1

It should be noted that interconnectors between Russia Far East to ROK and between Rus- sia Far East and Japan, both having a capacity of 2GW and operating at 500kV, are considered high risk due to political (traversing through DPRK) and technology (deep sea cables) risks. Therefore, they are shown as dotted lines.

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Investment projects are summarized in the Table 21 below.

Table 21 : Northeast Asian Interconnection Projects under Scenario 1

Sending - Receiv- Type Voltage Capacity Length (km) Comments ing terminal (kV) (GW) Overhead Submarine Total line Cables

Weihai (China) – Sinsiheung (SK DC 500 3 380 380 460 All configurations

Hadong (SK) – Hino (Japan) DC 500 2 210 300 510 All configurations

Gobi RE Base (Mon- golia) – Baotou DC 500 2 510 0 510 Quarantined & Inte- (China) grated DC only Gobi RE Base (Mon- golia) – Buryatia DC 500 2 900 0 900 Quarantined & Inte- (Russia Siberia) grated DC only

*Primorsky (Russia DC 500 2 960 480 1440 All configurations， FE) – Kashiwazaki- dependent on deep sea cables Kariwa

+ Vladivostok – DC 500 2 960 0 960 All configuration, dependent on securing ac- DPRK-Donghe cess through DPRK

OYUTOLGOI –Hoh- AC 500 2 430 0 430km Integrated AC only hot (China)

Darkhan – Buryatia AC 500 2 230 0 230 Integrated AC only

Kyzylskaya (Russia) AC 500 1 350 0 350 Integrated AC only -Emnegov (Mongo- lia) Notes* Primorsky – Kashiwazaki-Kariwa interconnector is considered as high risk due to its dependence upon the availability of marine cables capable of operating 3000m below sea level. +Vladivostok – Donghe interconnection is subject to securing DPRK’s consent for building overhead line through DPRK. On the other hand, the interconnection through DPRK would result in significant benefits to both ROK and DPRK in that it would save significant investment costs and also greatly enhance the electric supply security of both DPRK and ROK.

5.3.7 Scenario 2: Northeast Asia Interconnection Plan in 2036

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Under this scenario, interconnector capacity from Gobi RE base to China will be increased to 6GW. And that from Gobi RE base to Russia Siberia remains unchanged at 2GW.

There are three different connection configurations for Gobi RE base to export renewable generation to China, Russia, ROK and Japan. They are

- Quarantined - Integrated AC - Integrated DC

Depending upon which configuration is used, the interconnection plan between Mongolia, China and Russia is different. The interconnection between China and ROK, and between ROK and China remains the same under all configurations

Figure 51 shows the northeast Asian interconnection plan in 2036.

(a) Quarantined Configuration

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(b) Integrated DC Configuration

Figure 51 : Scenario 2 - Northeast Asian Interconnection Plan

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Table 22 Northeast Asian Interconnection Projects under Scenario 2

Sending - Receiv- Type Voltage Capacity Length (km) Comments ing terminal (kV) (GW) Overhead Submarine Total line Cables

Weihai (China) – Sinsiheung (SK DC 500 4 380 380 460 All configurations

Hadong (SK) – Hino (Japan) DC 500 2 210 300 510 All configurations

Gobi RE Base (Mon- golia) – Baotou DC 800 6 510 0 510 Quarantined, Integrated (China) DC only Gobi RE Base (Mon- golia) – Buryatia DC 500 2 900 0 900 Quarantined, Integrated (Russia Siberia) DC only Gobi RE Base (Mon- golia – Baotou DC 500 4 510 0 510 Integrated AC only (China)

*Primorsky (Russia DC 500 2 960 480 1440 Dependent on deep sea cables FE) – Kashiwazaki- Kariwa

+ Vladivostok – DC 500 2 960 0 960 High risk dependent on securing access through DPRK-Donghe DPRK

OYUTOLGOI –Hoh- AC 500 2 430 0 430km Integrated AC only hot (China)

Darkhan – Buryatia AC 500 2 230 0 230 Integrated AC only

Kyzylskaya (Russia) AC 500 1 350 0 350 Integrated AC only -Emnegov (Mongo- lia)

5.3.8 Scenario 3: Northeast Asia Interconnection Plan in 2036

Scenario 3 is only a long term +100 GW development of wind and solar PV and the current study should confirm the potential for future exportation.

Compared with Scenario 2, the interconnection from Harbin, China to Vladivostok, Russia FE would be 7GW, and Weifang-Korea and Weihai-Korea are both upgraded to 10GW; additionally, an additional 10GW UHV DC line was added between Linyi, China to Korea.

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Additional 7 HVDC lines operating at 800kV would be required from Gobi RE base to Wu Lan Cha Bu, He Lin He, Tianjin Nan, Bazhou, Tangshan Nan, Jinan and Nanyang, respectively.

Figure 52 shows the northeast Asian interconnection plans under Scenario 3.

(a) Quarantined Configuration

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(b) Integrated DC Configuration

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It should be noted that interconnector between Primorsky of Russia Far East and Minamii- waki of Japan is an alternative route to that between Komsomolskie of Russia FE and Mina- miiwaki of Japan. Interconnection from Vladivostok of Russia FE to ROK depends on securing access to DPRK territory, as such it is classified as high risk and is shown as dotted line. The use of 800kV HVDC technologies for interconnection under this scenario are mainly due to the following reasons: 1) 800kV technology is mature and has been widely used in China for both point to point interconnection and also for interconnecting east and west China grids. Some manufacturers have on-going research towards 800kV submarine cables. 2) It will significantly reduce the number of HVDC lines required under lower voltage levels, such as 500kV. This will reduce number of substations that would be required for converter stations. For example, ROK would require more than 20 substations for converter stations if 500kV HVDC lines with 2GW capacity is used, which would be challenging in identifying so many locations, cable routes and also significantly increase the operational complexity 3) The use of 800kV HVDC lines with 8GW or more would require new operational arrange- ment to ensure that N-1 security is maintained while the operational cost is minimized. 4) It is recommended that appropriate demand inter-trip schemes are put in place in ROK, Japan and Russia Far East and Siberia so that in case of a fault on one of the 800kV HVDC lines appropriate amount of demand is disconnected to maintain N-1 system security. Several 800kV DC lines are required under this Scenario in Northeast Asia territory, of which, three 800 kV lines connect China and ROK, each with a capacity of 10GW; seven 800 kV lines connect China and Gobi Desert (Mongolia), each with a capacity of 10GW; one 800 kV line connect Russia and Japan with a capacity of 6GW; and one 800 kV line connect Russia and Korea with a capacity of 10GW; In addition, two 800 kV lines connect Japan and Korea with capacities of 12GW and 8GW respectively and Gobi Desert (Mongolia) to China is 500 kV AC/800 kV DC hybrid. The distance of the major converter station under Scenario 3 is shown in the following Table 23.

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Table 23 : Converter Station Site Distance under Scenario 3

Sending - Receiv- Type Voltage Capacity Length (km) Comments ing terminals kV (GW) Overhead Submarine Total Line Cables

Gobi RE Base – DC 800 10 900 0 900 Quarantined & Integrated Buryatia DC only

Gobi RE Base – DC 800 8 510 0 510 Quarantined & Integrated Baotou (China) DC only

Gobi RE Base – DC 800 8 740 0 740 All configuration WuLanChaBu (China)

Gobi RE Base – DC 800 8 640 0 640 All configuration HeLinHe (China)

Gobi RE Base – DC 800 10 1220 0 1220 All configuration Tangshan Nan (China)

Gobi RE Base – DC 800 8 1100 0 1100 All configuration Bazhou (China)

Gobi RE Base – DC 800 8 1160 0 1160 All configuration Tianjin Nan (China)

Gobi RE Base – Ji- DC 800 8 1430 0 1430 All configuration nan (China)

Gobi RE Base – DC 1100 12 1500 0 1500 All configuration Nanyang (China)

WeiHai (China) – DC 800 10 80 3800 460 All configuration Sinsiheung (SK)

WeiFang (China) – DC 800 10 330 350 680 All configuration Hwasung (SK)

Linyi (China) – DC 800 10 500 350 850 All configuration Hwasung (SK)

Hadong (SK) – DC 800 8 350 260 610 4-terminal VSC-HVDC, All Hino/Takahama/Ooi configuration (Japan)

Sin Yasan (SK) – DC 1100 12 660 220 880 3-terminal VSC-HVDC, All Hokubu/Nishi- configuration gumma (Japan)

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Komosolskie (Rus- DC 800 6 2185 180 2365 All configuration sia FE) –Minamii- waki

(Japan)

*Primorsky (Russia DC 800 2 1230 480 1710 All configuration , Depend- FE) – Minamiiwaki ent on deep sea cables

Vladivostok – Har- DC 800 7 480 0 480 All configuration bin

Vladivostok – DC 800 10 960 0 960 All configuration, Depend- DPRK-Donghe ing upon access to DPRK territory

OYUTOLGOI – AC 500 2 430 0 430km Integrated AC only Hohhot (China)

Darkhan – Buryatia AC 500 2 230 0 230 Integrated AC only

Kyzylskaya (Rus- AC 500 1 350 0 350 Integrated AC only sia) -Emnegov (Mongolia)

Gobi RE Base – DC 800 6 900 0 900 Integrated AC only Buryatia

Gobi RE Base – DC 800 10 1500 0 1500 Integrated AC only Nanyang (China)

* It should be noted that interconnection project between Primorsky of Russia Far East and Minamiiwaki is alternative route to Komosolskie – Minamiiwaki.brought by new technology of submarine cable of up to 3000m depth

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6 INVESTENT COST OF NAPSI INTERCONNECTION PROJECTS

6.1 Methodology

Costs of transmission projects varies significantly from project to project and depends on many factors, such as technologies used, voltage level, cost of land, tax, labor cost, geographical and geologic conditions, producers, way leaves and right of way, proximity to the existing infrastructure, etc.

In order to assess the likely costs of northeast Asian interconnection project costs, we have investigated the known costs of transmission projects, especially HVDC projects in China and in Europe, the investment costs of these projects are normalized. A cost range is adopted.

It is assumed that the investment cost of renewable generation and its associated collecting systems would be considered separately by renewable generation developer, only investment cost of transmission system including that of cross country interconnection and Gobi RE base substation would be considered.

6.1.1 Interconnector Investment Costs

Project costs are calculated as follows:

(1) � � � � = � �� + � �� + � �� Where C is the total cost , and are unit cost of submarine cable and onshore overhead lines at rated voltage level v, �respective,� and are the length of submarine cable and over- � � head lines, respectively, and are rated cable and overhead line capacity, respectively, � � is the unit cost of switching bays and transformation� � equipment in the case of AC project, or� � � � converter station at voltage� level� v in the case of HVDC project, is design capacity of switching bays or converter station. ��

It should be noted that we have included in the project costs reactive compensation equipment which is required to provide reactive power support at part of connection condition for the project. This is particularly true for LCC-HVDC. However, it is recognized that the amount of reactive compensation equipment required varies from project to project as the main system where the project connects could differ significantly. This variance in our view is reflected in the unit cost range we have adopted.

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6.1.2 Estimation of Interconnector Line Length

Due to the limited time and requirements of this project, no detailed geographical survey or field measurement were carried out to determine the length of the interconnectors. Instead, desktop exercise has been carried out using Google Map to roughly estimate the length of the interconnection. Care was taken to ensure that known geographical restrictions and environ- mentally sensitive areas were considered and avoided. The estimated length from the Google Map was then inflated by 10% for onshore overhead lines and submarine cables to account for deviations of actual route and also the impact of geographical and geological conditions. This figure is then used in assessing the cost of the project.

6.2 Unit Costs of Transmission Technologies

6.2.1 Unit Cost of LCC-HVDC

Cost of LCC-HVDC interconnection project depends on many factors, such as voltage level, manufacturers, geographical conditions, financing cost, land, etc. In this report, only the construction costs are used, assuming typical conditions.

LCC-HVDC project consists of overhead lines/cables and converter stations at both ends of the DC line. Converter station is typically made of converter transformer, valves, reactive compensation, filtering banks, switches, busbars, etc.

Table 24 below shows breakdown of typical LCC-HVDC converter station costs at different voltage levels:

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Table 24 : Cost Breakdown of Typical LCC-HVDC Converter Stations

Back-to-Back ±250kV ±350kV ±500kV ±600kV Converter Station 500MW 1000MW 2000MW 3000MW 200MW 500MW % % % % % % Valve groups 19 19 21 21 21 22

Converter Trans- 22.5 22.5 21 22 22 22 formers DC switchyard & 3 3 6 6 6 6 filtering AC switchyard & 11 11 10 9.5 9 9 filtering Control/Prot/Comms 8.5 8.5 8 8 8 8

Civil/Mech.works 13 13 14 14 13.5 13.5

Aux. Power 2 2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Project Eng.&Ad- 21 21 17.5 17 17 17 min

Total per kW $160 $110 $220 $180 $145 $150

It can be seen from Table 24 that valve groups and converter transformers account for almost 22% each of total converter station costs, and civil and project engineering together cost about over 25% of total cost. Clearly, cost of civil and project engineering varies from site to site depending upon geographical and geological conditions.

For 800 kV LCC-HVDC projects, they are currently primarily built and operated in China, according Chinese statistics, the average cost of 800kV converter station is about $112/kW.

For 1100kV LCC-HVDC, there is only one project that has been built in the world, it is Junggar East – Anhui Xuancheng which has a design capacity of 12000MW and is over 3300km long. Total cost is over 40b RMB, and it is scheduled to be commissioned in 2018. The converter station unit cost is assumed comparable to 800kV one, at $112/kW.

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Table 25 below shows the unit cost of HVDC overhead lines, cables and undersea cables .

Table 25 : Estimated HVDC Line Costs

Voltage Overhead Single Line Cable ($m/km) ($m/km) 500kV 0.3 – 0.6 1.36~2.67 800kV 0.483 – 1.126 2.19 – 4.3* 1100kV+ 0.483 – 1.126 2.19 – 4.3* Notes: * there has been no cable used in 800kV HVDC project, the figure is estimated on the assumption that 800kV overhead line is about 61% higher than that of 500kV one. +there is only one 1100kV project being built in the world although more are being planned in China, the unit cost is assumed comparable to 800kV one although the estimated cost of this project is $1.081m/km. Cable cost would be similar to that of 800kV

For submarine cables that are capable of operating at 3000m below sea level, it is still prototype and has not been applied in the world. Therefore it is difficult to estimate their unit cost. However, it is reasonable to assume that it would cost significantly more than established ones due to its complexity and technological challenges. Therefore, we have assumed that it would cost 30% more than existing cables at the same voltage level.

Total cost includes everything from when the project is initiated until the construction is fin- ished. This includes main contract with suppliers, costs due to unexpected changes in the project, land use and environmental permits, consultants, in-house hours and project manage- ment.

In the cost range, low cost is close to regional construction. High cost are observed in western countries.

Some of the differences in total cost can be explained by the different environments the projects are built in. Some of them are built in urban environment, some in mountainous environment, whereas others in easier environment.

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6.2.2 Unit Costs of HVAC

HVAC transmission line normally involves costs of substation/transformation and overhead lines/cables. According to the joint report “Costs Analysis of the Electric Transmission Projects Constructed in the 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015” published by Electric Power Planning and Design In- stitute and Hydropower and Water Resource Planning and Design Institute in 2017, the average actual cost of HVAC lines varies significantly from provinces to provinces. Table 26 below shows the average actual costs of HVAC projects with different rated voltages.

Table 26 : Actual Average Cost of HVAC Overhead Lines in China (2011-2015)

Voltage Level (kV) Unit Costs ($m/km) Comments

110 0.110 Lowest cost found in Inner Mongolia, Highest in Eastern Power Grid

220 0.189 Lowest cost found in Northeast Power Grid, Highest in Eastern Power Grid

330 0.174 Only Northwest Grid has 330kV lines

500 0..458 Lowest cost found in Inner Mongolia, Highest in Eastern Power Grid

750 0.396 Only Northwest Grid has 750kV lines

1000 1.335

Similarly, the cost of substation and transformation varies significantly from region to region. Table 27 below shows the average actual costs of substation and transformation in China.

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Table 27 : Average Actual Cost of HVAC Substation and Transformation Projects

Voltage Level (kV) Unit Costs ($/kVA) Comments

110 46.3 Lowest cost found in Inner Mongolia, Highest in South Power Grid

220 3.76 Lowest cost found in Inner Mongolia, Highest in Northern Power Grid

330 36.4 Only Northwest Grid has 330kV lines

500 20.5 Lowest cost found in Inner Mongolia, Highest in Northeast Power Grid

750 27.5 Only Northwest Grid has 750kV lines

1000 58.1

6.2.3 Unit Costs of VSC-HVDC

Given the power rating considered, there are two topologies possible with VSC converters:

 Symmetrical monopole  Bipole

Symmetrical monopole is a common topology for VSC HVDC links. It enables the use of non- specific transformers (reducing cost and procurement time) and does not need metallic return cable or electrodes. A bipolar configuration would increase security of supply, almost elimi- nating the risk of full power loss if a dedicated metallic return cable or electrode is used. Converter stations for bipoles have a higher cost and footprint compared to monopoles for the same power rating.

Based on the analysis of historical VSC HVDC projects that are in operation and contracted, VSC HVDC costs breakdown is given below

 Converter station: 170 $/kW to 400 $/kW  Submarine Cables: 1.48 M$/km/2 MI cables for 525 kV  Overhead Lines, similar to that of LCC HVDC.

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It is also assumed that as the VSC HVDC technology develops the converter station unit cost will fall as the capacity and voltage increase, in a similar manner as LCC HVDCs.

6.2.4 Losses

Transmission losses depend on many factors, such as loading, ambient temperature, types of technologies used, equipment, valves, VSC/LCC topology, etc. IEEE Std 1158-1991 IEEE “Recommended Practice for Determination of Power Losses in High Voltage Direct-Current (HVDC) Converter Stations” recommends detailed method for calculating converter station losses.

Losses figures used in this report are based empirical information from historical operation under typical operating conditions.

For LCC-HVDC converter stations, 1.5% For VSC-HVDC converter stations, 2% For OHL and submarine cables: 2% of energy transmitted for 1000 km length

6.3 Assessment of Northeast Asian Interconnection Project Costs

6.3.1 Scenario 0

Under this scenario, 300MW of wind and solar power would be developed by 2020 in a distributed manner. There is no development in Gobi RE base. They mainly consist of existing projects which are under construction or planned. Their costs would be underpinned by these actual projects. Therefore, they are not assessed in this report

6.3.2 Scenario 1

Under this scenario, additional 5GW of wind and PV generation will be developed in the Gobi RE base. RE base collection system would be constructed to collect power from individual wind turbines and PV arrays, and would be stepped up through a serious transformation. A 500kV AC substation would be built at the Gobi RE base to collect and group wind and PV generation, where two LCC-HVDC lines would be constructed to connect to Russia and China, as shown in Figure 50. Quarantined and Integrated configurations does not affect the interconnection between Mon- golia, China, Russia, Japan and ROK.

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1) Quarantined Configuration

This requires the build of a 500kV AC substation with 4GVA transformation capability, 2 converter stations with a capacity of 2GW each, one connecting to Buryatia, Russia Siberia with 500kV overhead HVDC lines, and the other connecting to Baotou, China with 500kV overhead HVDC lines.

Table 28 below summarizes total investment costs of interconnection projects under quarantined configuration. Table 28 : Summary of Interconnection Projects

Projects Mongolia China Russia ROK Japan Total Cost Range

($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) Interconnection Projects

Gobi RE Base (Mongolia) – 385 425 810 733 - 886 Baotou (China) Gobi RE Base (Mongolia) – 614 371 985 850 - 1120 Buryatia (Russia Siberia) Hadong (SK) – Hino (Japan) 615 664 1279 1051 - 1506

Primorsky (Russia FE) – 776 1080 1856 1437 - 2274 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Vladivostok –DPRK-Donghe 380 587 967 838 - 1096

Weihai (China) – Sinsiheung 840 831 1671 1410 - 1932 (ROK)

Subtotal 999 1265 1527 2033 1744 7568 6319 - 8814

Gobi RE Base

500kV AC Substation 102

Total 1101 1265 1527 2033 1744 7670 6421 - 8916

Total investment cost is estimated at $7670m with a range of $6421m - $8916m, of which interconnector cost is about $7567m. An AC substation will be built at Gobi RE base to collect generation from wind turbines and PV arrays for onward transport of power to China and Rus- sia via HVDC links.

The interconnection between Primorsky of Russia Far East to Kashiwazaki Kariwa is estimated to cost $1856m as it crosses the Sea of Japan using deep water submarine cable. In comparison, the alternative route from Komsomolsk-on-Amur of Russia Far East, through Sakhalin and Hokkaido, to Minamiiwaki of Japan, would cost over $2040m. The deep see cable option is thus some $184m cheaper.

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Vladivostok – DPRK – Donghe interconnection with an estimated cost of $967m requires access to DPRK territory, and has significant political risks.

2) Integrated DC Configuration

Compared with the Quarantined configuration, additional 500MW back-to-back LCC-HVDC substation would be constructed at the Gobi RE base and is connected to Tavantolgoi via a 220kV overhead headline. The interconnection to China and Russia remains unchanged from that of Quarantined configuration. Table 29 shows total investment cost of interconnection projects and additional Mongolia transmission system investment.

Table 29 : Summary of Interconnection Projects

Projects Mongolia China Russia ROK Japan Total Cost Range

($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) Interconnection Projects

Gobi RE Base (Mongolia) – 385 425 810 733 - 886 Baotou (China) Gobi RE Base (Mongolia) – 614 371 985 850 - 1120 Buryatia (Russia Siberia) Hadong (SK) – Hino (Japan) 615 664 1279 1051 - 1506

Primorsky (Russia FE) – 776 1080 1856 1437 - 2274 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Vladivostok –DPRK-Donghe 380 587 967 838 - 1096

Weihai (China) – Sinsiheung 840 831 1671 1410 - 1932 (SK

Subtotal 999 1265 1527 2033 1744 7568 6319 - 8814

Gobi RE Base

500kV AC Substation 102 102 102-102

500kV B2B HVDC of 500MW 110 110 110-110

220kV AC OHL between 38 38 38-38 Gobi RE Base and Tavantol- goi

Total 1249 1265 1527 2033 1744 7818 6569- 9064

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Total investment cost is estimated at $7818m with a range of $6569m – 9064m. Compared with the Quarantined configuration, there is an increase of $148m in investment cost for interconnection with 220kV transmission.

3) Integrated AC Configuration

This requires the build of a new 500kV Mongolia transmission system overlaying on the existing 220kV one. The existing 220kV interconnection with China will be uprated to 500kV, and that with Russia uprated to 500kV.

Table 30 shows the estimated investment cost.

Table 30 : Investment Cost – Scenario 1 Integrated AC Configuration

Projects Mongolia China Russia ROK Japan Total Cost Range

($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) Interconnection Projects

Darkhan(Mongolia) – Burya- 65 127 192 186 - 197 tia (Russsia) Hadong (SK) – Hino (Japan) 615 664 1279 1051 - 1506

Kyzylskaya (Russia) -Emne- 68 141 209 201 - 216 gov (Mongolia) Oyutolgoi –Hohhot (China) 113 176 288 278 - 298

Primorsky (Russia FE) – 776 1080 1856 1437 - 2274 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Vladivostok –DPRK-Donghe 380 587 967 838 - 1096

Weihai (China) – Sinsiheung 840 831 1671 1410 - 1932 (SK

Subtotal 246 1016 1424 2033 1744 6462 5401 - 7519

Gobi RE Base

New 500kV Substation over- 163 laying on 220kV substation

New 500kV Network Lines 750

Total 1159 1016 1424 2033 1744 7375 6314 - 8432

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Total investment with Integrated AC Configuration is $7375m with a range of $6314m - $8432m. The investment on the new 500kV network (including 500kV substation at Gobi RE base) is estimated at $913m. Of the three configurations, Integrated AC option is the lowest and is about $443m lower than the Integrated DC configuration.

6.3.3 Scenario 2

Under this scenario, additional 5GW of wind and PV generation will be developed in the Gobi RE base in 2036, bringing total renewable generation in Gobi RE base to 10GW. 500kV AC substation would be expanded to double the transformation capacity. The HVDC interconnection between Gobi RE base and China would be uprated to 800kV, whereas the HVDC interconnection from Gobi RE base to Russian Siberia will remain unchanged. In addition, the interconnection between China and ROK would be doubled to 4GW, still operating at 500kV. A new 500kV HVDC interconnection of 2GW would be constructed between Hadong of ROK to Hino of Japan, as shown in Figure 51. 1) Quarantined Configuration

Under this configuration, there is no physical connection between Gobi RE base and Mongo- lian 220kV transmission system, as shown in Figure 51 (a). Table 30 shows the breakdown of investment costs.

Table 31 : Summary of Interconnection Projects

Projects Mongolia China Russia ROK Japan Total Cost Range

($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) Interconnection Projects

Gobi RE Base (Mongolia) – 841 913 1754 1589 - 1917 Baotou (China) Gobi RE Base (Mongolia) – 614 371 985 850 - 1120 Buryatia (Russia Siberia) Hadong (SK) – Hino (Japan) 615 664 1279 1051 - 1506

Primorsky (Russia FE) – 776 1080 1856 1437 - 2274 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Vladivostok –DPRK-Donghe 380 587 967 838 - 1096

Weihai (China) – Sinsiheung 985 976 1961 1700 - 2222 (SK

Subtotal 1455 1898 1527 2178 1744 8802 7465 - 10135

Gobi RE Base

500kV AC Substation 205 205 205-205

Total 1660 1898 1527 2178 1744 9007 7670 - 10340

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Total investment cost is estimated to be $9007m with an range of $7670m – 10340m, of which investment in Mongolia, China, Russia, ROK and Japan are $1660m, $1898m, $1527m, $2178m and $1744m, respectively.

2) Integrated DC

Table 32 shows total investment costs.

Table 32 : Summary of Interconnection Projects

Projects Mongolia China Russia ROK Japan Total Cost Range

($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) Interconnection Projects

Gobi RE Base (Mongolia) – 841 913 1754 1589 - 1917 Baotou (China) Gobi RE Base (Mongolia) – 614 371 985 850 - 1120 Buryatia (Russia Siberia) Hadong (SK) – Hino (Japan) 615 664 1279 1051 - 1506

Primorsky (Russia FE) – 776 1080 1856 1437 - 2274 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Vladivostok –DPRK-Donghe 380 587 967 838 - 1096

Weihai (China) – Sinsiheung 985 976 1961 1700 - 2222 (SK

Subtotal 1455 1898 1527 2178 1744 8802 7465 - 10135

Gobi RE Base

500kV AC Substation 205 205 205-205

500kV B2B HVDC of 220 220 220-220 1000MW

220kV AC OHL between 38 38 38-38 Gobi RE Base and Tavantol- goi

Total 1918 1898 1527 2178 1744 9265 7928 - 10598

Total investment cost is estimated at $9265m with a range of $7928m - $10598m. Compared with the Quarantined configuration, there is an increase of $258m in investment cost.

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3) Integrated AC

Under this configuration, a 500kV transmission network would be constructed overlaying on the existing 220kV network, a west to east 500kV network would also be built in Mongolia, which connects to Russia Kyzylskaya at the west end and Buryatia of Russia at the east. The existing interconnection between Oyutolgoi and Hohhot would be upgraded to 2GW, From Gobi Re Base a back-to-back 500kV HVDC would be built at the border with China which will be connected to Baotou, China, via 500kV lines, as shown in Figure 51 (c). Table 33 shows total investment.

Table 33 : Summary of Interconnection Projects

Projects Mongolia China Russia ROK Japan Total Cost Range

($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) Interconnection Projects

Darkhan – Buryatia 65 127 192 186 - 197

Gobi RE Base (Mongolia – 675 715 1390 1313 - 1466 Baotou (China) Hadong (SK) – Hino (Japan) 615 664 1279 1051 - 1506

Kyzylskaya (Russia) -Emne- 68 141 209 201 - 216 gov (Mongolia) Oyutolgoi –Hohhot (China) 113 176 288 278 - 298

Primorsky (Russia FE) – 776 1080 1856 1437 - 2274 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa

Vladivostok –DPRK-Donghe 380 587 967 838 - 1096

Weihai (China) – Sinsiheung 985 976 1961 1654 - 2267 (SK

Subtotal 920 1876 1424 2178 1744 8142 6958 - 9320

Gobi RE Base

New 500kV Substation over- 246 laying on 220kV substation

New 500kV Network Lines 750

Total 1916 1888 1444 2178 1744 9138 7954 - 10316

Total investment costs is estimated at $9138m with a range of $7954m - $10316m, of which $991m is expended on building a 500kV network overlaying on the existing 220kV transmission systems (including 500kV AC substation at Gobi RE base)

Compared with Integrated DC configurations, Integrated AC option is $127m lower.

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6.3.4 Scenario 3

This scenario is a long term development of 100GW renewable generation at the Gobi RE base. Under this scenario, there would be 8 HVDC interconnectors to China with a total capacity of 70GW. Interconnection to Buryatia, Russia would be increased to 10GW. These HVDC interconnection projects would be ±800kV.

Interconnection capacity between China and ROK would be increased to 30GW with 3 ±800kV HVDC projects. Interconnection between ROK and Japan would be increased to 20GW with 2 multi-terminal VSC-HVDC operating at ±800kV. Russia Far East would be interconnected with ROK with a ±800kV HVDC project of 10GW, with Japan with a ±800KV HVDC link with the capacity of 6GW, and with Harbin of China with a ±800kV HVDC interconnection of 7GW. In addition, the Russia Siberia and Far East areas would be strengthened with a ±800KV HVDC line of 10GW.

Detailed northeast Asian interconnection plan under this scenario is shown in Figure 52.

1) Quarantined Configuration

Similar to Scenarios 1 and 2, this configuration physically segregates Gobi RE base and Mon- golia 220kV transmission systems.

Total investment cost is shown in Table 34.

Table 34 : Summary of Interconnection Projects

Projects Mongolia China Russia ROK Japan Total Range

($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) Interconnection Projects

Gobi RE Base – Bazhou 1097 1580 2677 2322 - 3030 (China)

Gobi RE Base – HeLinHe 1137 1169 2306 2100 - 2511 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Jinan 1137 1805 2942 2481 - 3401 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Tianjin Nan 1137 1588 2725 2351 - 3096 (China)

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Gobi RE Base – Baotou 1065 1137 2202 2037 - 2365 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Buryatia 1699 1264 2963 2673 - 3252

Gobi RE Base – Nanyang 1585 2309 3894 3411 - 4376 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Tangshan 1361 1860 3221 2828 - 3612 Nan (China)

Gobi RE Base – WuLan- 1137 1250 2387 2148 - 2624 ChaBu (China)

Hadong (SK) – 1673 4325 5998 5629 - 6366 Hino/Takahama/Ooi (Japan)

Linyi (China) – Hwasung 1979 1769 3748 3247 - 4248 (SK)

Primorsky (Russia FE) – 1545 2168 3713 2906 - 4519 Minamiiwaki

Sin Yasan (SK) – 2260 4463 6723 6297 - 7149 Hokubu/Nishi-gumma (Japan)

Vladivostok – Harbin 945 1009 1954 1799 - 2108

Vladivostok –DPRK-Donghe 1281 1651 2932 2654 - 3208

WeiFang (China) – Hwasung 1882 1729 3611 3165 - 4056 (SK)

WeiHai (China) – Sinsiheung 1761 1744 3505 3110 - 3899 (SK)

subtotal 11351 19261 5099 10826 10956 57501 51158 - 63820

Reinforcement in Russia Network

Chitinskaya (Russia Siberia) 3205 3205 3205-3205 – Zeyskaya (Russia FE)

Gobi RE Base and Mongolian Transmission System

500kV AC Substation 2050 2050 2050-2050

Total 13405 19265 8304 10826 10956 62756 56413 - 69075

Total investment cost is estimated at $62.7 with a range of 56.4b - $69.1, of which total investment carried out in Mongolia, China, Russia, ROK and Japan is $13.4b, $19.3b, $8.3b, $10.8b, and $10.9b, respectively.

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2) Integrated DC Configuration

Compared with Quarantined configuration, an additional 500kV, 1000MW back-to-back HVDC project would be built at the Gobi RE base and is then connected to Tavantolgoi with a 220kV AC line.

Table 35 shows total investment cost.

Table 35 : Summary of Interconnection Projects

Projects Mongolia China Russia ROK Japan Total Range

($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) Interconnection Projects

Gobi RE Base – Bazhou 1097 1580 2677 2322 - 3030 (China)

Gobi RE Base – HeLinHe 1137 1169 2306 2100 - 2511 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Jinan 1137 1805 2942 2481 - 3401 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Tianjin Nan 1137 1588 2725 2351 - 3096 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Baotou 1065 1137 2202 2037 - 2365 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Buryatia 1699 1264 2963 2673 - 3252

Gobi RE Base – Nanyang 1585 2309 3894 3411 - 4376 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Tangshan 1361 1860 3221 2828 - 3612 Nan (China)

Gobi RE Base – WuLan- 1137 1250 2387 2148 - 2624 ChaBu (China)

Hadong (SK) – 1673 4325 5998 5629 - 6366 Hino/Takahama/Ooi (Japan)

Linyi (China) – Hwasung 1979 1769 3748 3247 - 4248 (SK)

Primorsky (Russia FE) – 1545 2168 3713 2906 - 4519 Minamiiwaki

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Sin Yasan (SK) – 2260 4463 6723 6297 - 7149 Hokubu/Nishi-gumma (Japan)

Vladivostok – Harbin 945 1009 1954 1799 - 2108

Vladivostok –DPRK-Donghe 1281 1651 2932 2654 - 3208

WeiFang (China) – Hwasung 1882 1729 3611 3165 - 4056 (SK)

WeiHai (China) – Sinsiheung 1761 1744 3505 3110 - 3899 (SK)

subtotal 8150 19265 5099 10826 10956 57501 50486 - 63148

Reinforcement in Russia Network

Chitinskaya (Russia Siberia) 3205 3205 3205-3205 – Zeyskaya (Russia FE)

Gobi RE Base and Mongolian Transmission System

500kV AC Substation 2050 2050 2050-2050

500kV B2B HVDC of 220 220 220-220 1000MW

220kV AC OHL between 38 38 38-38 Gobi RE Base and Tavantol- goi

Total 13663 19265 8304 10826 10956 63014 55999 - 68213

Total investment cost is estimated at $63.01b, with a range of $55.9b – 68.2b. Compared with the Quarantined configuration, there is an increase of $258m in investment cost.

3) Integrated AC Configuration

Under this configuration, Gobi RE base is directly integrated with 500kV transmission system. Table 36 shows the cost of this configuration.

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Table 36 : Summary of Costs under Scenario 3 Integrated AC Configuration

Projects Mongolia China Russia ROK Japan Total Range

($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) Interconnection Projects

Darkhan – Buryatia 65 127 192 186 - 197

Gobi RE Base – Bazhou 1097 1580 2677 2322 - 3030 (China)

Gobi RE Base – HeLinHe 1137 1169 2306 2100 - 2511 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Jinan 1137 1805 2942 2481 - 3401 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Tianjin Nan 1137 1588 2725 2351 - 3096 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Baotou 841 913 1754 1644 - 1863 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Buryatia 1363 928 2291 2001 - 2580

Gobi RE Base – Nanyang 1361 2085 3446 2963 - 3928 (China)

Gobi RE Base – Tangshan 1361 1860 3221 2828 - 3612 Nan (China)

Gobi RE Base – WuLan- 1137 1250 2387 2148 - 2624 ChaBu (China)

Hadong (SK) – 1673 4325 5998 4862 - 7062 Hino/Takahama/Ooi (Japan)

Kyzylskaya (Russia) -Emne- 68 141 209 201 - 216 gov (Mongolia)

Linyi (China) – Hwasung 1979 1769 3748 3247 - 4248 (SK)

OYUTOLGOI –Huhehaote 113 176 289 278 - 298 (China)

Primorsky (Russia FE) – 1545 2168 3713 2874 - 4548 Minamiiwaki

Sin Yasan (SK) – 2260 4463 6723 6297 - 7149 Hokubu/Nishi-gumma (Japan)

Vladivostok – Harbin 945 1009 1954 1799 - 2108

Vladivostok –DPRK-Donghe 1280.5 1650.5 2931 2531- 3322

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WeiFang (China) – Hwasung 1882 1729 3611 3165 - 4056 (SK)

WeiHai (China) – Sinsiheung 1761 1744 3505 2956 - 4051 (SK)

subtotal 10817 18993 5030.5 10825 10956 56622 49234 - 63900

Reinforcement in Russia Network

Chitinskaya (Russia Siberia) 3205 2884-3525 – Zeyskaya (Russia FE)

3525Gobi RE Base and Mongolian Transmission System

500kV AC Substation 2091 2091 2091-2091

220kV AC OHL between 750 750 750-750 Gobi RE Base and Tavantol-

goi

Total 13658 18993 8235.5 10825 10956 62668 54959-70266

Total investment cost is estimated at $62.6b with a range of $54.9b – 70.2b, of which expenditure inside Mongolia, China Russia, ROK and Japan, are respectively $13.7b, $19b, $8.2b, $10.8b, and $11b.

Compared with Integrated DC configuration, Integrated AC configuration is about $346m lower.

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7 RECOMMENDATIONS AND SEQUENCING OF NORTHEAST ASIA INTER-CONNECTION PROJECTS

7.1 Analysis of Mongolian Transmission System and NAPSI Interconnection De- velopment

Scenario 0 requires no new interconnection between NAPSI countries. NAPSI interconnections schemes have been developed taking into consideration economic energy exchange between different countries, technology development, geographical/geological conditions. Table below summarizes the interconnection schemes and total costs of schemes by scenarios

Table 37 : summary of NAPSI Interconnector Projects Sce- Config. Type No of Ca Length (km) Comments nario Inter- pa Sub- OHL Total con- cit marine nectors y Cable (G W) 1 Quaran- LCC 6 13 1120 3760 4880 Including Russia FE – Japan deep sea cable tined & HVDC Inte- grated DC Inte- HVAC 3 4 1010 1010 New 500kV lines in Mongolia not included grated LCC 4 9 1160 2210 3370 AC HVDC 2 Quaran- LCC 8 18 1120 3760 4880 For majority of interconnectors they are the same as Scenario 1, tined & except for significant expansion of Gobi RE Base to China (to 6 Inte- GW) and expansion of China – ROK link to 4GW grated DC Inte- HVAC 3 5 0 1010 1010 Construction of a new 500kV network in Mongolia is not in- grated LCC 3980 14 1120 2860 3980 cluded AC 3 Quaran- LCC 16 13 1560 12780 14340 Use 800kV HVDC for reasons of economy, route corridor and tined & 9 environmental considerations. Inte- grated DC VSC 2 20 480 1010 1490 Include 4 terminal and 3 terminal VSC HVDC network for economy, route corridor, environmental considerations

Inte- LCC 16 13 1560 12780 14340 Use 800kV HVDC for reasons of economy, route corridor and grated 4 environmental considerations. AC VSC 2 20 480 1010 1490 Include 4 terminal and 3 terminal VSC HVDC network for economy, route corridor, environmental considerations

HVAC 3 5 0 1010 1010 Construction of a new 500kV network in Mongolia is not included

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Table 49 compares the cost of Quarantined, Integrated DC and Integrated AC configurations under different scenarios.

Table 38 : Summary of NAPSI Investment Costs under Different Scenarios

Scenarios Mongo- China Russia ROK Japan Total Cost Range lia ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m) ($m)

Scenario 1 Quarantined 1101 1265 1527 2033 1744 7670 6421 - 8916

Scenario 1 Integrated DC 1249 1265 1527 2033 1744 7817 6569- 9064

Scenario 1 Integrated AC 1158 1016 1424 2033 1744 7375 6314 - 8432

Scenario 2 Quarantined 1660 1898 1527 2178 1744 9007 7670- 10340

Scenario 2 Integrated DC 1918 1898 1527 2178 1744 9265 7928- 10598

Scenario 2 Integrated AC 1916 1888 1444 2178 1744 9138 7954- 10316

Scenario 3 Quarantined 13405 19265 8304 10826 10956 62756 56413-69075

Scenario 3 Integrated DC 13663 19265 8304 10826 10956 63014 55999 - 68661

Scenario 3 Integrated AC 13658 18993 8235.5 10825 10956 62668 54959-70266

The costs include additional network reinforcement and developments in Mongolia, and also HVDC line linking Russia Siberia and Far East regions. But is does not include additional costs that may be required to reinforce individual countries transmission network. Key points are summarized below

1) Both Quarantined, Integrated DC and Integrated AC configurations are feasible network configurations for exportation of large scale renewable generation from Mongolia. 2) Impact of large scale renewable generation on Mongolia’s existing and planned 220kV transmission system depends on Gobi RE base network configurations. Quarantined has the least impact whereas Integrated AC would see full integration of Mongolian power system with Gobi RE base, providing support to and also benefiting from Gobi renewable generation development. 3) Integrated AC configuration requires lower amount of total investment when compared with Integrated DC configuration it is $443m, $127m, $346m lower for Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively 4) Integrated AC configuration has the flexibility to expand in the most economic manner as Gobi RE base develops.

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Therefore, it is recommended that the Integrated AC configuration be adopted as the preferred option for NAPSI Interconnection development.

7.2 Recommendations for Mongolia Power Network Development

The following recommendations are proposed for power network development for exportation of large scale renewable power in Mongolia

1) Mongolian is endowed with rich renewable generation resources, especially solar power. Wind and solar power should be developed in large scale and concentrated manner in the Gobi Desert (Gobi RE Base for short). The Gobi RE could be developed in phases with the 1st phase development of 5GW, 2nd phase 10GW, and so on. 2) Transmission system for Gobi RE base should developed in Integrated AC configuration manner which involves the construction of a new 500kV transmission system overlaying on the existing 220kV one. Gobi RE base would be fully integrated with the Mon- golian 500kV transmission system. 3) Appropriate security and protection schemes should be put in place, such as renewable generation inter-trip schemes, voltage and stability monitoring and control systems, etc. This will ensure that the Gobi RE base and 500kV transmission system could operate safely against any contingencies.

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Sequencing of NAPSI Interconnection Projects

NAPSI Interconnection for exportation of large scale renewable generation in Mongolia (Gobi Desert) should be constructed in 3 stages as envisaged by the 3 scenarios. This will allow sufficient interconnection capacity to meet expansion of Gobi RE base. This is shown below: Phase I (2026): Gobi RE base to reach 5GW

 Development of Gobi Re base 500kV substation  Construct new 500kV AC transmission system overlaying on the existing 220kV one in Mongolia

 Darkhan (Mongolia) – Buryatia (Russia) 500kV AC  Kyzylskaya (Russia) -Emnegov (Mongolia) 500kV AC

 Uprating Oyutolgoi –Hohhot (China) 500kV AC  Weihai (China) – Sinsiheung (ROK) 500kV, LCC HVDC, 3GW  Vladivostok –DPRK-Donghe (ROK) 500kV, LCC-HVDC, 2GW  Hadong (SK) – Hino (Japan) 500kV LCC-HVDC, 2GW  Primorsky (Russia FE) – Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, 500kV, LCC-HVDC, 2GW

Phase II (2036): Gobi RE base to reach 10GW

 Expand China (Weihai) – ROK (Sinsiheung), 500kV, LCC-HVDC to 4GW from 3GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base ) – China (Baotou), 500kV, LCC HVDC, 4GW

Phase III (2036 +): Gobi RE base to reach 100GW

 Mongolia (Gobi RE Base) – Russia Siberia (Buryatia), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Uprate Mongolia (Gobi RE Base)– China (Baotou) to 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base)– China (WuLanChaBu), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base) – China (HeLinHe), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Russia Far East (Vladivostok) – China (Harbin), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 7GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base)– China (Tangshan Nan), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base) – China (Tianjin Nan), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 10GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base) – China (Bazhou), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Uprate China (WeiHai) – ROK (Sinsiheung) to 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 10GW

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 China (WeiFang) – ROK (Hwasung), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 10GW  China (Linyi) – ROK (Hwasung), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 10GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base) – China (Jinan)), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW  Mongolia (Gobi RE Base)– China (Nanyang), 1100kV, LCC-HVDC, 10GW  Russia FE (Vladivostok) –DPRK-ROK (Donghe), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 10GW  ROK (Hadong) – Japan (Hino/Takahama/Ooi), 4 terminal VSC HVDC, 8GW  ROK (Yasan) – Japan (Hokubu/Nishi-gumma ), 3 terminal VSC HVDC, 12GW  Russia FE (Primorsky) – Japan (Minamiiwaki), 800kV, LCC-HVDC, 8GW

This is illustrated in figures below:

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Figure 53 : Sequence of NAPSI Interconnection Development

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APPENDIX A: SOURCE OF KEY CONSTRAINTS FOR RES ASSESS- MENT (GIS TOOL)

Constraints Data source Technical constraints Elevation, slope https://lta.cr.usgs.gov/SRTM1Arc http://www.eic.mn/geodataen/geomoose.html Waterland http://www.eic.mn/geodataen/geomoose.html

Buildings http://download.geofabrik.de/asia/mongolia.html Railways http://download.geofabrik.de/asia/mongolia.html Roads (All) http://download.geofabrik.de/asia/mongolia.html Forest http://www.eic.mn/geodataen/download.html Permafrost http://www.eic.mn/geodataen/download.html http://www.eic.mn/geodataen/geomoose.html Military zones http://download.geofabrik.de/asia/mongolia.html OVERPASS API Airport zones http://download.geofabrik.de/asia/mongolia.html OVERPASS API Radar zones (meteorological, mili- http://download.geofabrik.de/asia/mongolia.html OVERPASS API tary, etc.) Radar at airports http://download.geofabrik.de/asia/mongolia.html OVERPASS API Protected areas Ramsar sites (wetlands) https://www.protectedplanet.net/ Strictly Protected area https://www.protectedplanet.net/ Important Bird areas (migratory http://datazone.birdlife.org/country/mongolia routes) National protected areas http://www.eic.mn/geodataen/download.html http://www.eic.mn/geodataen/geomoose.html National protected areas : World Her- http://www.eic.mn/geodataen/geomoose.html itage Site Local protected areas http://www.eic.mn/geodataen/geomoose.html SPA zone boundary http://www.eic.mn/geodataen/geomoose.html Other constraints PV, wind power plants existing and Google Earth planned http://www.thewindpower.net/country_maps_en_66_mongolia.php Tourist camps http://overpass-turbo.eu/ -tourism=camp site Power lines and substations http://overpass-turbo.eu/ -tourism=camp site / NovaTerra State border http://www.eic.mn/geodataen/download.html Minerals deposit areas, mines http://overpass-turbo.eu/

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APPENDIX B: DESCRIPTION OF POWER SYSTEM ANALYSIS SOFT- WARE PACKAGE

B1. Introduction

Power System Analysis Software Package (PSASP) is a powerful power system analysis tool developed by the China Electric Power Research Institute (CEPRI) with independent intellec- tual property rights. It was first developed in 1973 as a mainframe application, and since has been consistently updated and maintained with the latest development in computing technology and also power systems.

PSASP earns widely recognition among the users because of its characteristics. At present, PSASP has thousands of clients extended all over China and some other nations and areas. PSASP is the very basic analysis software used in national dispatch center of State Grid Cor- poration of China (SGCC), and also provincial and area dispatch centers. It is also popular among planning & design institutions, universities, scientific research institutions, large-scale industries systems and railway systems.

B2. PSASP Functionalities

PSASP consists of flexible and integrated applications with open structure and resource sharing features. It has a user friendly and graphical interface. It can perform all types of analysis for large scale power system with over 50,000 nodes, such as load flow, dynamic and transient stability, fault level calculation, hybrid Ac/DC analysis, electro-magnetic and electro-mechanical analysis, etc. It contains conventional as well renewable generation models, which allow simulation of power systems with large scale and high penetration of renewable generation.

B3. Main Modules of PSASP

Figure B1 below shows the main modules of PSASP

Fig.B1 Illustration of Main PSASP Modules

Unified Graphic and Data Support Platform has Multi Document Interface. It can easily establish different power system analysis data and draw different graphics, such as single line diagram, geographic position wiring diagram, plant &substation main wiring diagram and so on. Different calculation modules of PSASP run on the platform, finish the analysis and output

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Fig.B2 Graphic and Data Platform of PSASP

PSASP contains standard models for SVC, wind turbines, HVDC, PSS, generators, etc. It has direct interface with many applications such as Matlab, AutoCAD, etc, This is shown in Figure B3.

Fig.B3 PSASP Models and Interfaces

B4. PSASP Analysis

Load Flow

Load Flow is the basic calculation of a power system, and it is also the bases of network

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loss calculation, static security analysis, transient stability calculation, small signal stability, short-circuit and so on.

Fig.B4 Load Flow calculations

Transient Stability Studies

The transient stability calculation module can be used in post fault analysis of complex fault and severe fault. By representing the dynamic response of the post fault, the reasons of stability disruption can be analyzed.

Fig. B5 Transient Stability Studies

Short Circuit Current Calculations

Short circuit current calculation has the following main functions  AC/DC hybrid system short-circuit calculation  Load flow based and scheme based short-circuit  User specified fault location  Execute line fault scanning calculation by interval  Complex fault calculation  Short-circuit current and short-circuit capacity of fault point  Positive, negative and zero sequence Thevenin Equivalent Impedance  Various output of calculation result

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Fig.B6 Short Circuit Current Calculation

Small Signal Stability Analysis

Power system small signal stability studies consider non-periodic instability (so-called “static stability”) and periodic instability(so-called dynamic stability).

Fig.7 Small Signal Stability Studies

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APPENDIX C: ANALYSIS OF MONGOLIAN TRANSMISSION NET- WORK IN 2020

C1 Introduction Northeast Asia is one of the world’s most dynamic economic development areas. It is characterized with large energy demand centers and mega cities in the central and east China, ROK and Japan which are generally endowed with poor energy resources and have tradition- ally relied on heavy import of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil. This has caused significant environmental pollution and contributed to global warming. On the other hand, Northeast Asia possesses rich wind and solar renewable energy resources, especially in Mongolia, which can be exploited commercially to help meet energy demand of China, Japan and ROK. It is recognized that the development of renewable energy resources is one of the key measures to tackle climate change and environmental pollution problems. Development of renewable energy resources in Northeast Asia in general, Mongolia in particular, is very important in meeting Northeast Asia country’s commitment to climate change obligations.

In the Northeast Asia region, several major government and regional agencies, including Asian Development bank (ADB), industry organizations, power companies and experts are actively promoting the study of the Northeast Asian power network interconnection and exploit- ing rich renewable energy resources in Northeast Asia region. So far, a few Northeast Asia regional power grid interconnection studies, including Northeast Asia Super grid, have been carried out.

Mongolia wind energy, solar energy, coal resources are very rich in that coal reserves is estimated at about 152 billion tons, wind energy with a capacity of about 500 million kilowatts, and solar energy 700 million kilowatts. The large-scale development of wind and solar energy in Mongolia, such as in the Gobi Desert could be exported through HV DC transmission to Russia, China, and wheeling through Chinese UHV transmission system to ROK and Japan, gradually building the Northeast Asia interconnected power grid. For Mongolia, the export of renewable energy to meet the electricity needs of other countries, while reducing global green- house gas emissions at the same time, to create an important domestic economic growth.

To assess the safety and stability of interconnected system between Mongolian power grid and neighboring countries, it is necessary to model Mongolian power network properly and accurately. In this study, the power system program, Power System Analysis and Stability Program (PSASP), developed by the China Electric Power Research Institute, is used as it is reliable, accurate and is widely used in China (with a market share of over 80%) to analyze transmission system performance such as power flow, angular and voltage stability, fault level, etc. the Mongolian power grid structure, single line diagram, parameters, load and other com- ponents of the operating conditions of the power flow were provided by the consortium partner, Tera Nova, and are used to construct the Mongolian Network in PSASP. Once the model is build, one can get the bus voltage, line flow and power loss and other results.

This report summarizes the Mongolian transmission model built and preliminary results of the power flow studies. Finally, it also outlines the future work of the study.

C2 Description of Mongolian Transmission System

C2.1 Structure of Mongolian Transmission System

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Mongolia has a land area of 1.5665 million square kilometers, the national population of about 3.1 million. Mongolia’s capital, Ulaanbaatar City, is the largest municipality, and is home to over one million people, accounting for 45% of the total national population. About 94% of the total population has access to either grid system or stand-alone electricity supply, but access to electricity is uneven among regions and households. About 13% of the rural population still do not have access to electricity, while only 0.5% of the urban population lack access to electricity.

The current installed power capacity in Mongolia is 1,050 megawatts (MW), but only 728MW (69%) is available because of aging power plants. The transmission and distribution network, connecting around 70% of the population, has been less than reliable—causing frequent blackouts in major cities including Ulaanbaatar—mainly because of aging transmission lines and substation facilities. With the rapid economic development, especially the mining industry, construction industry, urbanization vigorously promote the Mongolian Gobi area as the demand for electricity increased significantly, and need to vigorously build high-voltage transmission and distribution stations.

Mongolia's electricity and heat are dominated by coal-fired units, with 90% of their consumption occurring in the central energy system (CES). The current CES is mainly powered by five coal-fired co-generation plants, three of them in the Mongolian capital Ulaanbaatar. The remaining consumption occurred in the eastern, southern, western and ALTAIULIASTAIN regions.

2.2 Description of each power grid 1) The Central Energy System (CES) is in northern and central Mongolia. In the central energy system (CES), the highest voltage is 220kV, the lowest is 6.3kV, of which 220kV lines have a total of seven, of which three 110KV substation connected to the other three power systems, including the eastern power system, part of the Southern Power System and AL- TAIULIASTAIN power system. This is shown in Fig C1.

Fig. C1: Central region main assessment scheme

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2) In the ALTAIULIASTAIN power system, the highest voltage level is 110kV, the lowest 0.4KV, with a total of 4 110kVlines. As the region is rich in water resources, so it consists of more hydro-power stations, but the capacity is 0.5MW, on an average the maximum does not exceed 5MW.

Fig. C2: ALTAIULIASTAIN region main assessment scheme

3) The western power system is independent of the central energy system and has a maximum voltage rating of 110kV and contains 8 110kV nodes. Two of the 110kV nodes will be interconnected with the Russian power grid and the ALTAIULIASTAIN power system respectively.

Fig. C3: West region main assessment scheme

4) The eastern power system relates to the central energy system. The highest voltage is 110kv, the lowest is 6.3KV, it has three 110kV node.

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Fig. C4 East region main assessment scheme

5) The southern power system and the central energy system are interconnected, the highest voltage level is 220kV, the lowest 6.3kV, including one 220kV node, three 110kV node, 220kV nodes in the future through the line with the Chinese power grid and central energy system interconnection.

Fig. C5: South region main assessment scheme

C3 Modelling Mongolian Transmission System

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Data Source To calculate the power flow, we need to collect and sort the basic data of the power grid to establish the PSASP power flow calculation file. These data include line model and length, transformer type and capacity, peak energy load of winter and summer in the central energy system (CES), etc. The above data are provided by the consortium partner, Tera Nova.

C3.1 Description and validation of the Model

The PSASP program is converged after 5 iterations, and the PFO results file is generated after the power flow calculation. The power flow calculation results can also show the trend through the automatic geographic network diagram format developed by the China Electric Power Research Institute, as shown in Fig.6. Figure 6 shows the generator, bus and other nodes of the voltage phasor and the power generated by the generator node; line flow with the direction of the flow, while giving the value of the size of the flow.

Fig. 6: Mongolia power flow

In this model, the Mongolian power grid is divided into six regions, according to the partition output power generation, load, loss and parallel load data list is as follows:

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Table C1. Region Power generation load MV MVar power factor MV MVar power factor 01 11.0 -32.6 0.320 0.0 0.0 0.000 02 0.0 -19.8 0.000 13.3 5.3 0.930 03 7.2 9.0 0.625 15.2 9.2 0.854 04 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.0 0.000 05 867.7 99.9 0.994 844.3 234.9 0.963 total 895.0 56.5 0.998 872.8 249.4 0.962

Table C2-8 shows all the output result tables of the BPA program, including all network node statistics, low voltage and overvoltage node data, system loss data, etc.

Table C2.Summary of the whole network. Partitions Voltage level Nodes Branches Generator Nodes Load Nodes 1 9 6.3 32 10.5 26 37 2 115 49 230 7 6 In total 125 35 49

Table C3.Low voltage and overvoltage node data list (in descending order). Crossed Voltage Voltage range Partitions Node Type voltage (KV) (pu) MIN(pu) MAX(pu) (pu) 05 BCL1 10.5 9.52 0.9063 0.95 1.052 -0.0437 05 BCR2 10.5 11.16 1.0628 0.95 1.052 0.0108 01 W8 115 122.06 1.0614 0.95 1.052 0.0094 01 WDHG2 6.3 Q 6.69 1.0614 0.95 1.052 0.0094 01 WDHG3 6.3 Q 6.69 1.0614 0.95 1.052 0.0094 01 WDHG1 6.3 Q 6.69 1.0614 0.95 1.052 0.0094 05 BCR1 10.5 9.93 0.9461 0.95 1.052 -0.0039 05 CR6 115 109.11 0.9488 0.95 1.052 -0.0012

Table C4.Transformer load exceeds 80% of the rated data list (in descending order of load percentage). Apparent Rated Capac- Proportion Transformer branch Power factor power ity(MVA) (%) B1 1 CL1 230 169.1 120 140.9 0.9175 B1 1 CL2 115 154.6 120 128.8 0.9997 B7 1 CR9 230 120.4 120 100.3 0.9519 B7 1 CR5 115 120 120 100 0.9517 CCC1 230 CHP4-G7 10.5 110.3 120 91.9 0.9804 CCC1 230 CHP4-G3 10.5 99 120 82.5 0.9843 CCC2 230 CHP4-G2 10.5 102.3 125 81.8 0.9463

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Node More than Rated Ca- Actual Table Volt- 1 1.05 voltage pacity power age C5.Trans- Partition Transformer branch Ratio volt- ratio (k former age (pu) MVA MVA (pu) V) Excitation (kV) 10 10.5F/1. 1.062 0.1 More than 5% 05 BCR2 B6 1 11.16 0.0128 60 22.6 .5 0F 8 35 of the data list 11 WDH 115F/6. 122.0 1.061 1.3 (in terms of 01 W8 6.3 0.0114 40 3 5 G1 3.0F 6 4 09 excitation size 11 WDH 115F/6. 122.0 1.061 1.3 01 W8 6.3 0.0114 40 3 order). 5 G2 3.0F 6 4 09 11 WDH 115F/6. 122.0 1.061 1.3 01 W8 6.3 0.0114 40 3 5 G3 3.0F 6 4 09 WDH 6. 6.3F/11 1.061 0.0 01 W8 115 6.69 0.0114 40 3 G1 3 5.0F 4 72 WDH 6. 6.3F/11 1.061 0.0 01 W8 115 6.69 0.0114 40 3 G2 3 5.0F 4 72 3 WDH 6. 6.3F/11 1.061 0.0 01 W8 115 6.69 0.0114 40 G3 3 5.0F 4 72

MW MVar MW MVar MW MVar MW Mvar 6.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.5 0.124 0.2 0.254 9 0 0 0.378 9.2 37 0 0 0.14 2.1 0 0 0.14 2.1 115 12.226 -189.6 1.137 18.8 0 0 13.363 -170.8 230 5.726 -294.6 2.561 133.4 0 0 8.287 -161.2 In total 18.076 -484 4.092 163.2 0 0 22.169 -320.8

Table C6.A list of system loss data in the order of the owner Table C7.Parallel reactive power compensation data list.

Capacitor (MVar) Reactor (MVar) Partitions Maximum Unscheduled Maximum Use reserve Use reserve Unscheduled capacity capacity capacity capacity 01 0 0 0 0 -6.7 -6.7 0 0 02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03 8 8 0 0.3 -5 -5 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 -15.3 -15.3 0 -1.4 05 61.7 61.7 0 0 -155 -155 0 14.6 In total 69.7 69.7 0 0.3 -181.9 -181.9 0 -16

Table C8.Rotate the spare capacity data list.

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active power Reactive power Partitions Reactive power emis- Absorbed reactive MAX Actual output reserve MAX MIN reserve sion power 01 18.6 1 7.6 11.2 0 4 0 7.2 02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03 37.8 7.2 30.6 22.7 0 9 0 13.7 04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 1251 876.7 374.3 729 0 98.5 0 630.5 In total 1307.4 895 412.5 762.9 0 111.4 0 651.4

Description: a) Active rotation does not include the power of all synchronous generators. Active power for the negative load of the generator for load processing, not statistics included. When the maximum output value is less than the actual output, the maximum output value of the statistics with the actual output value instead; b) reactive power rotation does not include the synchronous modulator reactive power. Reactive Rotation Standby Value Generators with active output greater than 0 and reference voltage less than 30 kV. There is no load that exceeds 90% of the rated line, and the results are convergent and the number of iterations of the Newton Raphson method is 5. The following is a comparison result between the southern region power flow data provided by NDC and the model. Table 9 shows the results of the comparison in the southern part of Mongolia at 7 pm, listing only the data on two 110kv lines.

Table C9. The results of the comparison in the southern part of Mongolia at 7 pm, listing only the data on two 110kv lines. Comparison of Power Flow Data in Southern Power

This model Data provided byNDC Active power Reactive power Active Reactive power out- kW (kVar) power(kW) put(kVar)

S2-->S1 800 -2200 858 -2178 S2-->S3 4800 800 4906 814

Fig.C 7: The model in Southern region power flow 19:00

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Fig. C8: Provided by NDC in the southern region power flow at 19:00

It can be seen from the comparison analysis that the model compares well with the data provided by Nova Terra.

C4 Mongolian Transmission System Study Results

C4.1 Scenario 0

Scenario 0 refers in particular to the development of wind and solar for Mongolia own development in 2020, connected to 220 kV power network (including ongoing upgrade and construction of new 220kV lines, scheduled to be commissioned in 2019). Figure 1 shows the geographical Mongolian transmission system in 2020.

Fig.2 NAPSI Connections Under Scenario 0 Fig.1 Scenario 0 – Impact on Mongolian Trans- (300MW RE) mission System

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The PSASP program is used to perform Mongolian transmission system analysis. The power flow calculation results can also show the trend through the automatic geographic network diagram format developed by the China Electric Power Research Institute, as shown in Fig.3. Figure 3 shows the generator, bus and other nodes of the voltage phasor and the power generated by the generator node; line flow with the direction of the flow, while giving the value of the size of the flow.

In this model, the Mongolian power grid is divided into five regions, according to the partition output power generation, load data list is as follows:

Table C2 Output power generation, load data list by partition (Scenario 0). Power generation Load Region MV MVar power factor MV MVar power factor

01 11.0 -30.0 0.320 0.0 -3.2 0.000

02 0.0 -25.9 0.000 13.3 5.3 0.930

03 367.2 0.0 1.000 415.2 9.2 1.000

04 20.8 0.0 1.000 0.0 0.0 0.000

05 1109.5 147.5 0.991 1035.5 560.5 0.879

Total 1508.5 91.5 0.998 1464.0 571.8 0.931

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Fig.C3 Geographical wiring diagram obtained by power system analysis software (Scenario 0)

Figure C4 shows 220kv power flow in Scenario 0:

Fig.C4 Map of power flow under Scenario 0

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C4.2 Scenario 1

In Scenario 1, added 5GW new wind and solar PV are developed by 2026 and the whole electricity generated is exported to neighboring countries via either new HV transmission lines or upgrade of existing ones.

Under Scenario 2, a total of 5GW renewable generation consisting of 2.5GW wind and 2.5GW of PV farms will be developed. Of which 0.6 GW would be developed in a distributed manner and connected to the main Mongolian power network. The other 4.4 GW of wind and PV generation should be developed in an intensive manner over a concentrated area. This renewable generation farm would be developed in the Gobi Desert.

There are two transmission configurations based on HVDC transmission technologies: integrated and quarantined schemes. Under this configuration, renewable generation farm is connected to Tavantolgoi and Oyutolgoi via 220kV lines, HVDC lines are used to export renewable generation to neighboring countries (China). Like the quarantined scheme, the flow to Russia would be bidirectional to take advantage of hydro plant in Russia. Figure 6 shows the integrated design of transmission system.

Fig.C5 Scenario 1 – Impact on Mongolian Transmission Sys- Fig.C6 NAPSI Connections Under Scenario 1 (5GW RE) tem

In Scenario 1, added Gobi Desert (Mongolia)-Buryatia (Russia) DC, capacity of 2GW; added Gobi Desert (Mongolia)-Baotou (China) 3GW DC; added Weifang (China)-Sinsiheung (Korea) DC, added Hadong (Korea)-Hino (Japan) DC lines. The distance of the converter station under Scenario 1 is shown in the following table C3.

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Table C3 Converter Station Site Distance under Scenario 1 Sending - Receiving terminal Land Distance(km) Submarine Distance(km) Total

New oyutolgoi –Hohhot (DC) 430 0 430km

Darkhan – Buryatia (500kv DC) 230 0 230km

Weihai – Sinsiheung (500kv DC) 80 380 460km

Hadong – Hino (500kv DC) 210 300 510km

Gobetic (Mongolia) – Baotou (500kv DC) 510 0 510km

Gobetic (Mongolia) – Buryatia (500kv DC) 900 0 900km

The PSASP program is converged after 7 iterations, and the PFO results file is generated after the power flow calculation. The power flow calculation results can also show the trend through the automatic geographic network diagram format developed by the China Electric Power Research Institute, as shown in Fig.7.

In this Scenario, the Mongolian power grid is divided into five regions, according to the partition output power generation, load data list is as follows:

Table C4 Output power generation, load data list by partition (Scenario 1). Region Power generation Load

MV MVar power factor MV MVar power factor

01 11.0 -30.0 0.344 0.0 -3.2 0.000

02 0.0 -25.9 0.000 13.3 5.3 0.930

03 607.2 5.6 1.000 415.2 39.7 1.000

04 20.8 0.0 1.000 0.0 0.0 0.000

05 871.8 150.2 0.985 1035.5 473.1 0.910

Total 1510.8 99.9 0.998 1464.0 514.9 0.943

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Fig.C7 Geographical wiring diagram obtained by power system analysis software (Scenario 1)

Fig.C8 Map of power flow under Scenario 1

C4.3 Scenario 2 In Scenario 2, an additional +5GW of wind and solar PV are developed between 2026 and 2036 and also 100% exported (therefore total wind and solar capacity is 10GW). Under this scenario, 10GW of renewable generation consisting of 5GW wind and 5GW PV would be developed. From the RE resource analysis, it is clear that Gobi Desert area has sufficient renewable resources to develop 10GW renewable generation farm.

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For AC transmission scheme, wind and PV generation will be collected and stepped up to 500kV at the renewable generation base as shown in Figure 10. The 220kV transmission lines from Oyutolgoi, Tavantolgoi to Ulaanbaatar will be uprated to 500kV which would then connect to the 500kV half ring system from Kyzylskaya, Russia to Emnigov, Telmen, Erdenet to Gusir- noozerskaya, Russia. A 500kV double circuits would be connected to the back-to-back HVDC converter station at the border between Mongolia and China, from where 500kV HVDC line will be linked to Chinese network. Figures 9 show the schematic diagram of Integrated HV AC scheme.

FigC.9 Scenario 2 –Integrated AC Transmission Scheme FigC.10 NAPSI Connections Under Scenario 2 (10GW RE)

In Scenario 2, based on Scenario 1, the China-Korea-Japan 500Kv DC connection remains unchanged. Added five 500kv AC lines in Mongolian territory, of which, Darkhan (500kv)-Bury- atia (Russia) AC, capacity of 2GW; OYUTOLGOI (Mongolia)-Hohhot (China) 3GW AC; Gobi Desert (Mongolia)-Baotou (China), Gobi Desert (Mongolia) to China is AC/DC hybrid. The distance of the converter station under Scenario 2 is shown in the following table C5.

Table C5 Converter Station Site Distance under Scenario 2

Sending - Receiving terminal Land Distance(km) Submarine Distance(km) Total

OYUTOLGOI –Hohhot (500kV AC) 430 0 430km

Darkhan – Buryatia (500kV AC) 230 0 230km

WeiHai – Sinsiheung (500Kv DC) 80 380 460km

Hadong – Hino (500Kv DC) 250 260 510km

Kyzylskaya -Emnegov (500Kv AC) 350 0 350km

Gobetic(Mongolia) – Baotou (500Kv AC/800Kv DC) 510 0 510km

The PSASP program is converged after 5 iterations, and the PFO results file is generated

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In this model, the Mongolian power grid is divided into six regions, according to the partition output power generation, load data list is as follows : Table c6 Output power generation, load data list by partition (Scenario 2). Power generation load Region MV MVar power factor MV MVar power factor

01 11.0 -22.5 0.439 0.0 14.0 0.000

02 0.0 -9.5 0.000 13.3 5.3 0.930

03 7.2 0.0 0.994 15.2 59.2 0.248

04 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.0 0.000

05 887.2 187.6 0.978 844.3 506.5 0.858

06 9520.8 32.1 1.000 9300.0 3960.5 0.920

total 10426.3 188.4 1.000 10172.8 4545.0 0.913

Fig.c11 Geographical wiring diagram obtained by power system analysis software (Scenario 2)

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Fig.c12 Map of power flow under Scenario 2 C4.4 Scenario 3

Scenario 3 is only a long term +100 GW development of wind and solar PV and the current study should confirm the potential for future exportation. Based on the current power flow data of 2030, the power supply and load were adjusted to match the data to 2036. Based on this power flow, the power flow of Harbin sent to Russia was adjusted to 7GW, and Weifang-Korea was upgraded to 10GW. Weihai-Korea Upgraded to 10GW; additionally, added Mongolia-Jinan DC, capacity of 10GW; added Linyi-Korea's 10GW UHV DC line. The specific line current distribution is shown in the figure below.

Figure c13 NAPSI Connections Under Scenario 3 (100GW RE)

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Based on Scenario 2, the Russia-Mongolia-China 500Kv AC connection remains unchanged. Added several 800kv DC lines in Northeast Asia territory, of which, three 800Kv lines connect China and ROK, each with a capacity of 10GW; seven 800Kv lines connect China and Gobi Desert (Mongolia), each with a capacity of 10GW; one 800Kv line connect Russia and Japan with a capacity of 6GW; and one 800Kv line connect Russia and Korea with a capacity of 10GW; In addition, two 800Kv lines connect Japan and Korea with capacities of 12GW and 8GW respectively and Gobi Desert (Mongolia) to China is 500Kv AC/800Kv DC hybrid. The distance of the major converter station under Scenario 3 is shown in the following table C8.

Table c8 Converter Station Site Distance under Scenario 3.

Sending - Receiving terminal Land Distance(km) Submarine Distance(km) Total NEW OYUTOLGOI –Hohhot (500kV AC) 430 0 430km Darkhan – Buryatia (500kV AC) 230 0 230km Gobi Desert – Buryatia (800kV DC) 900 0 900km Kyzylskaya -Emnegov (500Kv AC) 350 0 350km Gobi Desert (Mongolia) – Baotou (500Kv AC/800Kv DC) 510 0 510km Gobi Desert (Mongolia) – WuLanChaBu (800Kv DC) 740 0 740 Gobi Desert (Mongolia) – HeLinHe (800Kv DC) 1450 0 1450km Gobi Desert (Mongolia) – Tangshan Nan (800Kv DC) 1220km 0 1220km Gobi Desert (Mongolia) – Tianjin Nan (800Kv DC) 1160 0 1160km WeiHai – Sinsiheung (800Kv DC) 80 3800 460km WeiFang – Hwasung (800Kv DC) 330 350 680km Hadong – Hino (800Kv DC) 250 260 510km Sin Yasan – Hokubu (800Kv DC) 560 220 780km Komsomolsk-on-Amu –Minamiiwaki (800Kv DC) 1880 180 2060km Vladivostok – Harbin (800Kv DC) 480 0 480km Vladivostok –DPRK-Donghe (800Kv DC) 960 0 960km

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Power Research Institute, as shown in Fig.c14.

In this model, the Mongolian power grid is divided into six regions, according to the partition output power generation, load data list is as follows: Table c9 Output power generation, load data list by partition (Scenario 3). Power generation load Region MV MVar power factor MV MVar power factor

01 11.0 -22.5 0.439 0.0 14.0 0.000

02 0.0 -9.5 0.000 13.3 5.3 0.930

03 7.2 0.0 0.994 15.2 59.2 0.248

04 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.0 0.000

05 887.2 187.6 0.978 844.3 506.5 0.858

06 95320.6 32.1 1.000 95100.0 4211.6 0.999

total 96226.1 188.4 1.000 95972.8 4796.6 0.999

Fig.c14 Geographical wiring diagram obtained by power system analysis software (Scenario 3)

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APPENDIX D: ANALYSIS OF EAST CHINA UHV GRID FOR NAPSI IN- TERCONNECTION

D1. Description of East Power Grid of China To accommodate large scale development of clean energy, some measures should be taken, such as expanding the scale of synchronous power grid and building inter-regional interconnected power grid, which makes it possible for complementarity and comprehensive utilization of renewable generation, achieve the large-scale of renewable energy development and accommodation in west area, and greatly relieve the environmental pollution and haze in eastern areas. China power grid in 2030 is expected to form the east and west ultra high voltage (UHV) synchronous grids operating at 1000kV.

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Figure D1. Schematic diagram of power grid in eastern China.

In future, the UHV AC is the backbone of eastern power grid of China. The schematic diagram of power grid in eastern China can be found in Fig.D1.

Under normal operation mode, the power flow distribution and voltage level of the backbone network of the eastern power grid is reasonable and shown in figure D2.

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1058.0 Hu Meng 2X 88.5 1070.5 1056.8 Daqing Xi Hong Cheng 770.9 2X419.1 2X

2X1024.8 2X724.7

3828.2 1063.5

3735.3 Ying Kou

2X 1055.0 1054.9 9824.1(2) 3828.2 1035.4 1040.6 1770.4 Jin Zhou Meng Xi2X1424.4 Beijing Dong 2X4118.9 Beijing Xi 2X 1047.0

2X 3039.3

1056.3 2305.5 2X Tang Shan

Jin Bei 2X2252.1 2) 1033.5

Tianjin Nan

2X3246.7 10570.1(

2X4558.4 2X 1055.0 3092.5 Jin Zhong 1036.3 2X4537.1 2X1902.3 Ji Nan 1046.8 2X190.0 1035.5 Shi Jia Zhuang Wei Fang

5881.6

2X2104.3 1033.0 2X3549.4

1023.7 2X3801.7 Zao Zhuang 1022.7 Jin Dongnan 2X2993.3 2X305.5 Lin Yi

1040.1 2X132.5 2126.1 4941.7

Dong Ming 1035.3 2X 2X1244.4 2X Xu Zhou

23308.5(3) 1014.4 3131.7 Lian Yun Gang

1039.5 4632.4 2X 2X 958.5 2X Nan Yang 3569.6 1040.6 2X 1007.2 1027.9 2X494.9 Wei Nan Tai Zhou Zhu Ma Dian 1031.0 2X2315.9 2X457.2 Nan Jing Figure D2. The basic power flow of power grid in eastern China.

Analysis shows that UHV transmission will have significant headroom and ability to move power from remote generation to demand centres in large quantities. Therefore, UHV substations could be used as the connecting points for interconnectors to Mongolia, Russia and ROK. Detailed studies were carried out to assess the maximum capacity that might exist in Eastern China UHV power grid without causing additional significant reinforcement. This study result will be used for the identification of connection sites between China, Mongo-lia, and ROK

D2 Identification of Converter Station Locations in East China Grid for Interconnection to Mongolia, Russia and ROK

D2.1 Methodology Under Scenario interconnection between China and Mongolia RE Base is 70GW and that between China and ROK is 30GW.

To transmit such a large amount of power into and out of China, there are two ways that power from Mongolia could be transported to consumers in China and ROK:

 Interconnection with HVDC then transit through UHV AC grid HVDC+UHVAC  Point-to-point connection of HVDC to load centres in China, and/or to the point where export to ROK is located (P2P HVDC)

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The HVDC+UHVAC connection configuration is to connect HVDC interconnectors to the UH- VAC substations that are geographically shortest to the interconnection border. The interconnection power would be distributed to demand through UHVAC system.

The P2P HVDC configuration connects HVDC lines to load centres, directly supplying power to demand, causing minimal disruption to UHAC system.

The purpose of this study is to identify maximal HVDC+UHVAC capacity and suitable location of converter stations that connects directly onto East China UHV Network, and identify suitable location for P2P HVDC converter stations of interconnectors between China and Mongolia, China and ROK.

D2.2 Identification of Interconnection Capacity under HVDC+UHVAC Configuration without causing additional significant UHVAC network reinforcement

D2.2.1 Study results

Suitable UHV AC network nodes that are closest to Mongolian RE base, ROK and Russia have been identified. They are

 Interconnection to Mongolian RE base : Baotou, Wu Lan Cha Bu and Huo Lin He in In- ner Mongolia  Interconnection to Russia Far East: Harbin in Helongjiang province  Interconnection to ROK: Wei Hai and Wei Fang in Shandong province

A number of studies were carried out by successively increasing the level of transfer at those nodes until UHV AC network become infeasible. Then the value is scaled back to take into account other factors that were not considered in the studies but may have a detrimental impact on the actual capability of the system.

Results are shown in Table D1.

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Table D1 : UHV DC Lines Connected Directly to China UHV AC Network

No. Sending node Receiving node Voltage level Capacity/MW

1 Mongolia Batou ±800kV 8000

2 Mongolia Wu-lan-Cha-bu ±800kV 8000

3 Mongolia Huo-lin-he ±800kV 8000

4 Weifang Korea ±800kV 10000

5 Weihai Korea ±800kV 10000

6 Harbin Russia ±800kV 7000

Under the configurations as shown in Table 16, the power flow distribution and voltage levels of East China power grid are found reasonable. Figure 29 shows power flow of East China power grid.

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1061.1 Hu Meng 2X Mogolia 605.9 1073.2 6517.7(2) 8000.0(2) 1060.3 Daqing Xi 7000.0(2) Russia Hong Cheng 76.8 2X575.9 2) 2X

90.2 11.0 7000.0( 7370.0(2) 2X 2X 7000.0

7370.0 1070.5 Mogolia 2X1712.9 116.4 1061.8 Bai Cheng 2X 1068.0 582.8 Harbin Dong 2X740.6 2) Huo Lin He 2X Mogolia 1063.7 1065.3

8000.0( 7370.0(2) Za Lu Te Changchun Dong 1057.4 2X485.4 2) 2X1641.2 2X693.7 7370.0 Sheng Li 2X

821.0 7370.0( 1068.7 4304.6 2X Shenyang Dong 1064.1 1050.0 2X1415.7

7370.0 807.7 2X Wu Lan Cha2X Bu4076.4 Zhang Bei 1043.0 1055.8 1063.7 815.1

Xi Meng 2X1051.9 2X Ba Tou 2X608.5 Chi Feng 2X640.3

5230.3 2) 1063.5 Ying Kou

2X6298.5 1047.3 1037.1 11887.0( 5230.3 1038.8 2) 1050.0 Jin Zhou 6689.7 Meng Xi2X Beijing Dong 2048.9 2X4740.8 Beijing Xi 2X2240.1 1028.2 6517.7( Korea 2X

1075.7 3078.1 2) 2X4476.5 Tang Shan 6689.7(2) Jin Bei 2X2953.9 1015.4 7000.0(

Tianjin Nan Wei Hai 2X4205.5

7200.0(2)

14348.0(2) 7000.0

7000.0(2) 5846.4

2X 2X 1035.4 4843.7 Jin Zhong 1019.1 2X4661.3 2X2617.3 7200.0( Ji Nan 7200.0 1031.9 2X688.2 1016.0

Shi Jia Zhuang Wei Fang

2259.3 3043.9

2X7259.7

2X 1033.3

4019.5 2X

1035.5 2X Zao Zhuang 1023.2 Jin Dongnan 2X2456.4 2X159.1 Lin Yi

1045.2 2X668.0 1700.5

Dong Ming 1043.7 2X 2X1373.2 2X4071.5 Xu Zhou

18869.3(3) 1024.8 2578.7 Lian Yun Gang

1039.5 3212.9 2X 2X 2659.9 2X Nan Yang 1047.7 2X3063.0 1023.8 1036.5 2X91.8 Wei Nan Tai Zhou Zhu Ma Dian 1041.7 2X2555.0 2X1276.7 Nan Jing

Figure D4 Eastern China UHV Power Grid Load Flow with 24GW input from Mongolia, 20GW export to ROK and 7GW export to Russia Far East

It should be noted that Weihai is 500kV substation.

Table 2 summarizes the power flow of critical UHVAC lines in the eastern China power grid of China.

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Table D2: Transmission power comparison of critical lines with base case (MW)

Line Route Base Case + Additional Node 1 Node 2 Base Case number Interconnection Flow

1 Ximeng Beijing Dong 9823.8 11887 2 Zhang Bei Beijing Xi 7656.4 10460 3 Beijing Xi Shijiazhuang 6493.4 8411 4 Shijiazhuang Dongming 7603.4 8039 5 Dongming Zhumadian 9264.8 6425.8 6 Baotou Mengxi 7470.8 12597 7 Mengxi Jinzhong 10570.3 14348 8 Jindong Nan Jinzhong (triple lines) 11763.2 14519.4 9 Jindong Nan Nanyang 23308.5 18869.3 10 Weifang Linyi 7098.8 6088 11 Linyi Lianyungang 9883.4 8143 12 Lianyungang Taizhou 7139.2 6126 14 Beijing Dong Tianjin Nan 6078.6 8953 15 Tianjin Jinan 9116.8 11693 16 Tianjin Weifang 6185 9687 Note: 1) All line route consists of double circuits except where marked.

2) Flows are the total flow on the line route

N-1 Security Assessment

N-1 security analysis have also been carried out to ensure that the East China Grid is compliant with national security standards.

Table D6 shows the results of the power flow transfer when one of those heavily loaded lines in Table D6 (in bold) were faulted, i.e. test of N-1. It can be seen from Table D6 that under N- 1 conditions, power flows on the remaining circuit do not exceed the transmission limit. It can be seen that under the configuration as shown in Table 16 and Table 15 the static N-1 power flow can’t exceed the limit, which also validate the scheme is reasonable.

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Table D3: Power flow of key single-circuit line under N-1 conditions (MW)

Voltage stability Line flow after dis- Node 1 Node 2 Line Route under N-1 connection number 1 Ximeng Beijing Dong stable 8575.5 2 Zhang Bei Beijing Xi stable 7294 3 Baotou Mengxi stable 9594 4 Mengxi Jinzhong stable 10935 5 Jinzhong Jindong Nan stable 10194 6 Jindong Nan Nanyang stable 15623two lines 7 Beijing Dong Tianjin Nan stable 6335 8 Tianjin Jinan stable 7936 9 Tianjin Weifang stable 6340

Taken Mengxi-Jinzhong transfer passage as an example, Under N-1, i.e outage of one line on the same double circuit route, Figures 30 shows power flow distributions in Eastern China power grids after outage of one line of the aforementioned double circuit route.

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1060.3 Hu Meng 2X Mogolia 612.1 1072.5 6517.7(2) 8000.0(2) 1059.1 Daqing Xi 7000.0(2) Russia Hong Cheng 2X 2) 2X68.6 581.1

76.9 7000.0( 7370.0(2) 2X 2X11.7 7000.0

7370.0 1069.5 Mogolia 2X1746.5 1061.3 Bai Cheng 2X110.5 808.5 1066.2 Harbin Dong 2X 2) Huo Lin He 2X581.9

Mogolia 1062.0 1064.4 8000.0( 7370.0(2) Changchun Dong Za Lu2X Te 1054.2 500.1 700.2 2) 2X1757.8 2X 7370.0 Sheng Li 2X

836.1 7370.0( 1067.4 4467.9 2X Shenyang Dong 1061.3 1050.0 2X1471.3

7370.0 1171.0 2X Wu Lan Cha2X Bu4290.6 Zhang Bei 1038.5 1052.7 1066.8 834.9

Xi Meng 2X1096.2 2X Ba Tou 2X677.4 Chi Feng 2X668.8

5372.3 1061.6 Ying Kou

2X5773.4 1044.3 1033.0 12259.6(2) 5372.3 1028.9 2) 6689.7 1050.0 2349.0 Jin Zhou Meng Xi2X Beijing Dong 3242.2 2X5928.2 Beijing Xi 2X 1020.7 6517.7( Korea 2X

1069.8 3385.4 2X4670.1 Tang Shan 6689.7(2) Jin Bei 2X3064.8 1005.1 7000.0(2) 2)

4909.5 Tianjin Nan Wei Hai 2X

7200.0(

10935.3 7000.0 7000.0(

1034.2 2X6219.8 2X5074.7 Jin Zhong 1011.4 2X3628.4 2X2337.1 7200.0( Ji Nan 7200.0 1028.8 2X655.7 1008.1 Shi Jia Zhuang Wei Fang

2X6685.3

2X2363.7 1028.5

4124.4 2X3192.5

1038.0 2X Zao Zhuang 1017.3 Jin Dongnan 2X2173.8 2X89.0 Lin Yi

1044.1 2X504.3

1735.3 3)

Dong Ming 1039.0 2X 2X 2X4162.5 Xu Zhou 1353.1

18485.0( 1019.9 Lian Yun Gang

1039.5 3273.1 2X 2X2633.5 2546.3 2X Nan Yang 1046.7 2X3110.8 1020.9 1036.0 2X26.6 Wei Nan Tai Zhou Zhu Ma Dian 1039.3 2X2527.2 2X1191.7 Nan Jing

Figure D5: Load flow distribution East China Power Grid when one of Mengxi - Jinzhong is out- aged When one of Mengxi - Jinzhong lines is outage, the power through the remaining circuit is 10935.3 MW, which does not exceed its thermal limit of 11457 MW.

In summary, Eastern China UHV power grid has significant capabilities to wheel power from Mongolia to ROK and Russia via the UHV network without causing additional reinforcement. They are

- a total capacity of 24GW that could be directly connected to Eastern China UHV AC network at Baotou, Wu Lan Cha Bu and Huo Lin He

- 20GW export capacity exists at Weihai and Weifang for interconnector to ROK

- 7GW export capacity available at Harbin for export to Russia Far East

D2.3 Identification of Converter Station Sites under P2P HVDC Connection configurations

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Under Scenario 3, the total interconnection capacity required between China and Gobi RE base is 70GW.

The analysis in D2.2 shows that under HVDC+UHVAC connection configuration, suitable UH- VAC sites for a total of 24GW have been identified for interconnection to Mongolian Gobi RE base, 20GW to ROK and 7GW to Russia Far East. However, this still leaves converter station sites of 46GW for interconnection to Mongolian Gobi RE base, and 10GW to ROK, which can only be connected under P2P HVDC configuration.

This study tries to identify additional sites close to load centres inside Eastern China UHV power grid for point-to-point interconnection to Gobi RE base.

A number of studies have been carried out to identify additional sites for point-to-point connections to Gobi RE base, taking into consideration of other studies carried out on point-to-point interconnections between China and neighboring countries. The following sites have been identified, which are all large demand centres inside Eastern China UHV Power Grid: - Bazhou (near Beijing), 8GW

- Tianjin Nan, 8GW

- Tangshan Nan, 10GW

- Jinan,8GW

- Nanyang,12GW

For interconnections with ROK, additional sites have been identified for point-to-point connection to ROK as follows

- Lin Yi ,10GW

D3 Summary of Results

Table D4 below summarizes sites for interconnection between China, Gobi RE base, Russia and ROK.

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Table D4 Connection points and transfer capability of interconnectors

No. Sending Connection Voltage Capacity Connection Configu- country Point in level MW rations China

1 Mongolia Batou ±800kV 8000 HVDC+UHVAC

2 Mongolia Wu-lan-Cha- ±800kV 8000 HVDC+UHVAC bu

3 Mongolia Huo-lin-he ±800kV 8000 HVDC+UHVAC

4 Mongolia Bazhou ±800kV 8000 P2P HVDC

5 Mongolia Tianjin Nan ±800kV 8000 P2P HVDC

6 Mongolia Nanyang ±1100kV 12000 P2P HVDC

7 Mongolia Jinan ±800kV 8000 P2P HVDC

8 Mongolia Tangshan ±800kV 10000 P2P HVDC Nan

9 Weifang Korea ±800kV 10,000 HVDC+UHVAC

10 Weihai Korea ±800kV 10,000 HVDC+UHVAC

11 Lin Yi Korea ±800kV 10,000 HVDC+UHVAC

12 Harbin Russia ±800kV 7000 HVDC+UHVAC

Figure D6 shows the geographical location of these connection points.

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Figure D6: Geographical Location of Converter Station Sites For Interconnectors with Neighboring Countries

These sites gives a total interconnection capacity of 70GW between China and Mongolia , of which 24GW is connected to UHV AC network and 46GW is connected to load centres in China via point-to-point connection. Total Connection to ROK is 30GW, and to Russia FE is 8GW (including the existing interconnector).

Under this scenario, through the adjustment of relative generation operating status, the eastern China grid can be safely operation without any reinforcement. Figure D7 shows the load flow study results with 70GW interconnection import from Gobi RE base, 30GW export to ROK and 8GW export to Russia Far East.

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1076.6 Hu Meng Mogolia 2X634 1080.0 7370.0(2) . .0(2) 1081.3 6 Daqing Xi 8000 7 8000 36. ) Russia . Hong Cheng 0( 2X 2 .0(2 2) X678. 5 9 40. 8000 X X97.3

7370.0(2) 2 2 .9 .0 7999 7

7370 1077.6 311. 1061.9 2X1589 X Mogolia 2

1081.2 .3 Bai Cheng Harbin Dong ) 2X580.2 X470.7

(2 0 Huo Lin He Mogolia 1071.1 1067.7

8000. Za Lu Te Changchun Dong 7370.0( 1057.2 2X458 486.6

2) .8 2X

2X1972 . .0( 4 2) Sheng Li 7370.0

2X 633.7 7370 1072.5 3573 2X Shenyang Dong 1060.2 2X4066 1046.5 .7 .9 2X 7370.0 .6 2X989 Wu Lan Cha Bu 1041.3 1018.2

Zhang Bei 606.6 1061.6 1058.6 Xi Meng 2X855.3 379.2 2X Ba Tou 2X750.5 Chi Feng 2X

2) Mongolia 1065.9 .2(

7 .7 Ying Kou

1030.6 6126.7 2X5000

1046.2 ) 5078 11112

2X 5078. 1020.8 2 Meng Xi 9015 P↓5352.4 1395.0 Jin Zhou .6

. 6 0

2X2192.0 Beijing Dong . 2X 1050.0 2) 2X4883.4 9015.6( 6( 1006.3 ) Korea

Beijing Xi 4410 2X3119. (2

1061.5 .0 8 2X 3945.9 Tang Shan 9015.

.9 .5 Jin Bei 986.7 10000 (2) ) 0

(2 0

6862 Tianjin Nan 0

X4075

2 5

10000. 10000.

10000. ) Mongolia 5676.7 2

(

6862. 8000. 2X Wei Hai 1018.6 0 2 (2) X5909 991.5 .1 985.5 Jin Zhong 2X4888.9 2X2815.3 10000.0 Ji Nan Wei Fang10000.0 1006.0

. 2X1978.7 Shi Jia Zhuang

6808

3152.9 Lin Yi converter station

X X

2 2

1014.3 X4496.9 2X5000.0 2

1028.0 2X3923.1 Zao Zhuang 1016.1 2X3044.4 2X1976.7 Jin Dongnan .1

1015.4 2X1795 Lin Yi

X1703.2

8(3) 2 . Dong Ming 1034.2

Mongolia 2X1880.1 2X2574.6 .0 Xu Zhou 16262 12000 .1 1024.0 Lian Yun Gang 1042.9

2X 2X2457 2X2074.2 4153.1 2367.9 Nan Yang 1045.2 2X 1027.1 1029.9 Tai Zhou Zhu Ma Dian 2X797.7 Wei Nan 2X2888.6 2X2210.2 1039.6 Nan Jing

Figure D7: Simulation Results

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APPENDIX E: BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF OTHER STUDIES ON NORTH EAST ASIA INTERCONNECTION

Over the past decades, there have been increasing interest in cross border interconnection between Northeast Asia countries. Various interconnection schemes have been proposed for NEA, including GobiTec and Asia Supergrid, while technically feasible, these cooperative proposals have been hampered by factors such as existing national policies of energy self- sufficiency and the sometimes-volatile diplomatic and political situation in the region. Thus, the only existing cross-border power cooperation projects are small in scale, linking Russia to Mongolia, Russia to China, and China to the DPRK as shown in Table E1. Table E1 Major existing cross-border interconnections, Northeast Asia

Transmission Line Component Voltage [kV] Comments

Gusinoozerskaya GRES (Russia) – Darkhan (Mongolia) 220 AC Kharanorskay GRES (Russia) – Choibalsan (Mongolia) 110 AC

Chadan (Russia) – Khandagaity – Ulanngom (Mongolia) 110 AC Blagoveshensk (Russia) – Heihe (China) 220/110 AC Sivaki (Russia) – Sirius /Aigun (China) 110 AC Blagoveshensk (Russia) – Sirius /Aigun (China) 2x220 AC Amurskay (Russia) – Heihe (China) 500 Back-to-back HVDC

However, several recent regional events have made regional power interconnections poten- tially more attractive. The Great Earthquake and nuclear disaster in Japan (March, 2011) pushed the economy to focus more on resilient power system and renewable energy. The power shortages and rolling blackouts in Korea (September, 2011) highlighted the vulnerabil- ities of its power system. Air pollution issues in China, largely attributed to coal-dependent power sector, has become an increasingly important concern. Meeting these economies’ electricity demand with a cleaner and more reliable power system has become a major chal- lenge; thus, several organisations have proposed multilateral power grid interconnection con- cepts, i.e., Gobitec and Asian Super Grid—interconnecting power grids and effectively utilizing the abundant renewable energy resources in the Gobi Desert and Eastern Russia—as illustrated in Figure 5. The wind and PV potential in Mongolia has been estimated at 1100GW and 1500GW, respectively (Elliott, et al., 2001; Energy Charter, et al., 2014), and economically feasible hydropower potential in Eastern Russia is estimated at 690TWh/year (estimated by European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, see IEA (2003)).

EDF ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE – with a capital of 1 006 625 696.50 euros – TA-9001 MON: Strategy for Northeast Asia Power System Interconnection

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

a) Northeast Interconnection Plan by GobiTec

b) Northeast Interconnection Plan by KEPCO

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

c) Northeast Interconnection Plan by Russia (Skoltech)

Figure E1 Northeast Asia Interconnection Plans

Several interconnection between Northeast Asia countries have been studied in pre-feasibility or feasibility in recent years such as interconnection between China and Korea, Kora and Ja- pan and Japan and Russia.

EDF ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE – with a capital of 1 006 625 696.50 euros – TA-9001 MON: Strategy for Northeast Asia Power System Interconnection

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Module 5 report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development

MINISTRY OF ENERGY, GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA Government Building 14, Khan-Uul District Chinggis Avenue, 3-r Khoroo Ulaanbaatar, 17060 Mongolia

Contact: Mr. Yeren-Ulzii Batmunkh Head of Investment Division

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 6 ADB Avenue Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines

Contact: Mr. Teruhisa Oi Project Manager, Energy Division (EAEN), East Asia Department (EARD) [email protected]

Consultant: EDF EDF CIST, Immeuble Spallis, 2 rue Michel Faraday 93282 Saint-Denis Cedex France

Contact: Mr. Philippe Lienhart Strategy Innovation New Business Manager Strategy for NAPSI Technical Assistance to Mongolia Team Leader [email protected]

Deliverable: Module 5 Report on Mongolia and North East Asia Power Grid Development Date: 26th October 2018

EDF ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE – with a capital of 1 006 625 696.50 euros – TA-9001 MON: Strategy for Northeast Asia Power System Interconnection

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