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FAO/GIEWS Special Report on Mozambique 05/97

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FAO/GIEWS Special Report on Mozambique 05/97 2008/10/30 FAO/GIEWS Special Report on Mozam… FAO GLOBAL INFORMATION AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME SPECIAL REPORT FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO MOZAMBIQUE 16 May 1997 1.OVERVIEW 2. MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT 1/ 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 1996/97 2/ 4. SITUATION BY PROVINCE 5. FOOD SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION 1.OVERVIEW An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Mozambique from 14 to 29 April 1997 to estimate the country’s 1996/97 production of food crops, forecast cereal import requirements for 1997/98 and determine the likely food aid needs. The Mission was joined by observers from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) office in Maputo and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). In conducting its assessment, the Mission was split into three teams so that as many provinces and districts as possible could be visited. One team visited the four northern provinces and a second team assessed the situation in four central provinces. The third team, assessed the conditions in the two southern provinces of Gaza and Maputo. The Mission received full cooperation from relevant Government departments as well as from donor representatives and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) based in the country. http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/w524… 1/20 2008/10/30 FAO/GIEWS Special Report on Mozam… In Maputo, the Mission held extensive discussions with Government officials, UN agency personnel, donors and NGO representatives. Field visits enabled the Mission to get first-hand views of farmers, traders, NGO field staff, provincial government officials and agricultural officers regarding the problems farmers faced during the current agricultural season and their opinions relating to this year’s harvest outcome. Relevant statistics supplied by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MINADER) as well as by provincial and district officials were examined by the Mission. These included estimates of area planted and harvested, yields of different crops, amount of agricultural inputs used, prices of agricultural products, and damage caused to crops by heavy rains and floods. Careful cross-checking and up-dating of official data was undertaken. The Mission carried out crop inspections on some farms in all the districts visited with a view to cross-checking the reliability of official data and opinions expressed by individuals regarding yields. For the districts not visited by the Mission, estimates were made on the basis of supplementary information the Mission was able to obtain from various sources. The total area planted to cereals and other food crops in 1996/97 is estimated by the Mission at 3 627 000 hectares, including 1 200 000 hectares of maize, 175 000 hectares of paddy and 573 000 hectares of sorghum and millet. This is some 6 percent higher than last year and reflects mainly the natural increase in population and the timely re-integration of returnees and demobilized soldiers. The 1996/97 main season was characterized by late arrival of rains but above-average levels of precipitation in most parts of the country, particularly during the months of January and February. Heavy rains in several areas in the central region caused floods that brought considerable damage to crops, notably to farms along the Rivers Zambezi, Pungue and Buzi. The heavy rains also damaged the maize crop planted on higher ground. The Mission estimates that some 103 000 hectares of foodcrops, including some 45 000 hectares of maize along the rivers were lost, mostly in Sofala, Tete and Zambezia provinces. Total 1996/97 production of cereals is provisionally estimated at 1.53 million tons against 1.38 million tons last year. This is about 11 percent higher than last year and is largely attributed to an increase in the area planted, higher yields in Tete, Gaza and Maputo and generally satisfactory weather conditions in most areas. Crop damage from pests or diseases was minimal. Production of cassava, the other major staple, has also increased and it was less affected by heavy rains. The production of beans and groundnuts is estimated to have increased by 8.5 percent over to the previous year. Reflecting the increase in cereal and other food production, the overall food supply situation in Mozambique in the 1997/98 marketing year (April/March) is expected to be better than last year, with a coarse grains surplus estimated at 63 000 tons. In spite of this surplus, however, the country will have an import requirement for rice and wheat estimated at 205 000 tons for 1997/98. Moreover, a large number of people whose crop fields were inundated by floods could face food shortages in the coming months. Among the affected, however, those who would harvest second season crops in September would have some supplies, but there would still be a significant number that would have difficulty in coping with shortages unless they receive assistance. There are also families in some areas in the normally food deficit south and in parts of other provinces who would not be able to meet their consumption needs from their own production or afford to purchase it on the market. The population in the south has never been self-sufficient and as such has usually depended on the market to secure its requirements. While families who grow cash crops like cotton and http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/w524…cashew-nuts and those who get employment in the non-farm sectors could afford to buy the food they need,2/20 2008/10/30 FAO/GIEWS Special Report on Mozam… cashew-nuts and those who get employment in the non-farm sectors could afford to buy the food they need, many low wage earners and the unemployed will be unable to get access to adequate food. Moreover, for many food-deficit rural areas, lack of infrastructure remains a serious bottleneck . As a result, prices tend to be too high for those who rely on the market. In consultation with Government authorities and NGOs, the mission estimated that approximately 172 000 people will require immediate food assistance for 4 months. Furthermore, 77 000 people might require assistance for an additional period of three months contingent upon the evaluation of the second season crop performance. The food aid needs for the 1997/98 marketing year will total 10 114 tons, consisting of 9 288 tons of maize and 826 tons of pulse. Overall, the 1997/98 food assistance represents 46 percent of that provided last year. 2. MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT 1/ Mozambique has a total area of 789 800sq.km, with approximately 45 percent of the country considered suitable for agriculture. However, only four percent of the total area is presently cultivated. The remainder of the area is under meadows/pastures and forest /woodlands. Its population, growing at the rate of about 2.5 percent per annum, is projected at 18.5 million in mid 1998. Well over 80 percent of the labour force is engaged in agriculture and employment opportunities in the non-farm sectors are very limited. The country’s infrastructure was devastated by more than 15 years of civil strife. Following the peace accord signed in October 1992 between the opposing groups, a climate conducive to the implementation of an economic recovery programme now prevails. The Government has initiated several rural development programmes and projects and is pursuing a strict structural adjustment programme (SAP) in cooperation with the IMF and the World Bank. Under this programme the country is in a position to benefit from debt relief and new loans. Recently, it received an IDA credit of US $ 100 million, the fifth such credit since the start of the structural adjustment programme in 1987. Also, Mozambique is getting technical and financial assistance from several governments and other organizations to boost its economic development. In March this year, the Government entered into a financial assistance agreement with the EU to support programmes over a period of five years for the improvement of the rural infrastructure (roads, water supply, schools and health centers), as well as rural extension, rebuilding the nation’s livestock herd, food security and environmental conservation. The reforms which have been carried out so far seem to have brought about the desired results in several areas. Inflation has been reduced to 15 percent in 1997 from over 50 percent the previous year. Interest rates have been brought closer to real levels. In 1996, the latest year for which figures are available, interest rates were on the average just over 40 percent in nominal terms. Most trade restrictions have been removed and market forces are allowed to operate relatively freely. The decline in agricultural production has been reversed. An impressive rate of growth of GDP, estimated at 6 percent per annum, was achieved in 1996. http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/w524… 3/20 2008/10/30 FAO/GIEWS Special Report on Mozam… reversed. An impressive rate of growth of GDP, estimated at 6 percent per annum, was achieved in 1996. Export performance has also shown some improvement since the peace accord in 1992. The value of exports in 1996 US$210 million against US$139 million in 1992. The government’s export target for 1997 is US$276 million, most of which will be from agricultural products and fisheries. Prospects for achieving the target look promising. The increase in exports and a decline in imports have helped to reduce the country’s balance of payments deficit which is projected to decline from US$407 million in 1992 to US$165 million in 1997. However, the country’s external debt position still remains precarious. Between 1992 and 1997 the debt is projected to rise from US$5.1 billion to US$5.5 billion.
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