The Need for a Deterrence Theory Update: Don’T Leave It to Chance
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
LOOKING BACK: "Dr. Strangelove" at 40: the Continuing Relevance of a Cold War Cultural Icon Author(S): Paul S
Arms Control Association LOOKING BACK: "Dr. Strangelove" at 40: The Continuing Relevance Of a Cold War Cultural Icon Author(s): Paul S. Boyer Source: Arms Control Today, Vol. 34, No. 10 (DECEMBER 2004), pp. 46-48 Published by: Arms Control Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/23627447 Accessed: 01-10-2016 19:58 UTC JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at http://about.jstor.org/terms Arms Control Association is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Arms Control Today This content downloaded from 95.183.180.42 on Sat, 01 Oct 2016 19:58:14 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms By Paul S. Boyer lookinglooking back: back:"Dr. Strangelove" "Dr. Strangelove" at 40: at 40: TheThe Continuing Continuing Relevance Relevance Of a Cold War Cultural Icon Entertainment ColumbiaTristar Home We stand at a strange and disorienting moment in our 60-year necessary technology. Additionally, the Soviet Union, hostile though it was, at encounter with nuclear weapons, with all of its strategic, political,least had a stable government and com mand structure, in contrast to the volatile cultural, and moral dimensions. The dust from the Cold War and unpredictable regimes that currently worry us, such as Iran and North Korea. -
Deterring and Dissuading Nuclear Terrorism
Journal of Strategic Security Volume 5 Number 1 Volume 5, No. 1: Spring 2012 Article 6 Deterring and Dissuading Nuclear Terrorism John J. Klein ANSER, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/jss Part of the Defense and Security Studies Commons, National Security Law Commons, and the Portfolio and Security Analysis Commons pp. 15-30 Recommended Citation Klein, John J.. "Deterring and Dissuading Nuclear Terrorism." Journal of Strategic Security 5, no. 1 (2012) : 15-30. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.5.1.2 Available at: https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/jss/vol5/iss1/6 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Open Access Journals at Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Strategic Security by an authorized editor of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Deterring and Dissuading Nuclear Terrorism Abstract While nuclear deterrence theory may be well-suited to dealing with nuclear-armed states, its suitability for deterring nuclear terrorism has frequently been questioned since 9/11. While terrorist organizations do not necessarily act uniformly or according to the same underlying beliefs, many of the most aggressive organizations are motivated by an ideology that embraces martyrdom and an apocalyptic vision.1 This ideology may be based on religion or a desire to overthrow a government. Consequently, terrorists motivated by ideology who intend to use a stolen or improvised nuclear device against the United States or its interests may not care about the resulting military repercussions following a nuclear attack. -
Deterrence Theory in the Cyber-Century Lessons from a State-Of-The-Art Literature Review
Working Paper Research Division EU/Europe Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Annegret Bendiek, Tobias Metzger Deterrence theory in the cyber-century Lessons from a state-of-the-art literature review SWP Working Papers are online publications of SWP’s research divisions which have not been formally reviewed by the Institute. Ludwigkirchplatz 3−4 10719 Berlin Phone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 www.swp-berlin.org Working Paper RD EU/Europe, 2015/ 02, May 2015 [email protected] SWP Berlin Table of Contents List of Figures 1 List of Abbreviations 2 Introduction 3 In theory – Deterrence theory and cyberspace 4 Deterrence-by-retaliation and deterrence-by-denial 6 In practice – Suitability of cyber: lessons and implications 7 Key challenges: Credibility and capability to display and use force 7 How to deter? Deterrence-by-denial and deterrence-by- retaliation 9 Determining the type of defence 9 Adding offence to the equation 10 When and whom to deter? Immediate vs. general deterrence and the challenge of attribution 10 What to deter? Narrow vs. broad deterrence 12 For whom? Central vs. extended deterrence 13 Conclusion and outlook 14 Annex 16 Glossary 16 List of References 17 List of Figures Figure 1: Limits to retaliation in cyberspace .................. 9 Figure 2: A possible model of escalation ....................... 11 Figure 3: EEAS figure on a possible inter-ministry division of labour ................................................................. 15 Figure 4: Risk assessment -
Kahn Used the Metaphor of an 'Escalation Ladder'
Preventing Nuclear Use: Internationally-Controlled Theater Missile Defenses Among Non- Super-Arsenal States1 Carolyn C. James, PhD University of Missouri, Columbia INTRODUCTION The current debates over missile defenses in the United States all have a common aspect - the systems are meant to provide a defense for US territory, allies, or troops abroad.2 This article proposes a different view with significant security potential. Specifically, theater missile defenses (TMD) should be considered as an international tool to prevent nuclear weapons use among proliferated states.3 Internationally-controlled TMD placed at potential flash points could prevent conflicts and crises from escalating to nuclear levels. These areas include borders with so-called “rogue” states, such as North Korea, Iran and Iraq, all of whom have seemingly aggressive ballistic missile programs and are embroiled in protracted conflicts with their neighbors.4 Similar to the goal of peacekeeping, reducing and limiting conflict in regions such as the Middle East clearly is in the US national interest. How, then, can nuclear use be prevented? Currently, there are seven declared nuclear weapon states (US, Russia, China, Great Britain, France, Pakistan, India), one non-declared “opaque” nuclear weapon state (Israel), and several states with known or suspected nuclear aspirations (including Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Libya and Taiwan). Two of these, the US and Russia, have established a legacy of Cold War deterrence policies. Nuclear deterrence, in particular, has been credited with maintaining crisis stability during those years.5 Today, a major debate in the field of security studies surrounds the question: Does nuclear deterrence really work? A common failure in most of these discussions about successful deterrence and avoiding nuclear use is the lack of distinction among nuclear force levels.6 The debate tends to be clarified by asking whether it was nuclear weapons, or mutual assured destruction (MAD), that kept the Cold War cold. -
Dominant Land Forces for 21St Century Warfare
No. 73 SEPTEMBER 2009 Dominant Land Forces for 21st Century Warfare Edmund J. Degen A National Security Affairs aperP published on occasion by THE INSTITUTE OF LAND WARFARE ASSOCIATION OF THE UNITED STATES ARMY Arlington, Virginia Dominant Land Forces for 21st Century Warfare by Edmund J. Degen The Institute of Land Warfare ASSOCIATION OF THE UNITED STATES ARMY AN INSTITUTE OF LAND WARFARE PAPER The purpose of the Institute of Land Warfare is to extend the educational work of AUSA by sponsoring scholarly publications, to include books, monographs and essays on key defense issues, as well as workshops and symposia. A work selected for publication as a Land Warfare Paper represents research by the author which, in the opinion of ILW’s editorial board, will contribute to a better understanding of a particular defense or national security issue. Publication as an Institute of Land Warfare Paper does not indicate that the Association of the United States Army agrees with everything in the paper, but does suggest that the Association believes the paper will stimulate the thinking of AUSA members and others concerned about important defense issues. LAND WARFARE PAPER NO. 73, September 2009 Dominant Land Forces for 21st Century Warfare by Edmund J. Degen Colonel Edmund J. Degen recently completed the senior service college at the Joint Forces Staff College and moved to the Republic of Korea, where he served as the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) J35, Chief of Future Operations. He is presently the Commander of the 3d Battlefield Coordination Detachment–Korea. He previously served as Special Assistant to General William S. -
Total War Recruits Start Here…
HEALTH ISSUES Use this software in a well-lit room, staying a good distance away from the monitor or TV screen to not overtax your eyes. Take breaks of 10 to 20 minutes every hour, and do not play when you are tired or short on sleep. Prolonged use or playing too close to the monitor or television screen may cause a decline in visual acuity. In rare instances, stimulation from strong light or flashing when staring at a monitor or television screen can cause temporary muscular convulsions or loss of consciousness for some people. If you experience any of these symptoms, consult a doctor before playing this game. If you experience any dizziness, nausea, or motion-sickness while playing this game, stop the game immediately. Consult a doctor when any discomfort continues. PRODUCT CARE Handle the game disc with care to prevent scratches or dirt on either side of the disc. Do not bend the disc or enlarge the centre hole. Clean the disc with a soft cloth, such as a lens cleaning cloth. Wipe lightly, moving in a radial pattern outward from the center hole towards the edge. Never clean the disc with paint thinner, benzene, or other harsh chemicals. Do not write or attach labels to either side of the disc. Contents Store the disc in the original case after playing. Do not store the disc in a hot or humid location. Welcome ....................................... 2 Installation Guide ................................ 3 The Total War™: ATTILA game discs contain software for use on a personal computer. Please do not play the discs on an ordinary CD player, as this may damage the Total War Recruits Start Here ...................... -
Military Strategy: the Blind Spot of International Humanitarian Law
Harvard National Security Journal / Vol. 8 333 ARTICLE Military Strategy: The Blind Spot of International Humanitarian Law Yishai Beer* * Professor of Law, Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya, Israel. The author would like to thank Eyal Benvenisti, Gabriella Blum, Moshe Halbertal, Eliav Lieblich, David Kretzmer, and Kenneth Watkin for their useful comments, and Ohad Abrahami for his research assistance. © 2017 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and Yishai Beer. 334 2017 / Military Strategy: The Blind Spot of International Humanitarian Law Abstract The stated agenda of international humanitarian law (IHL) is to humanize war’s arena. Since it is the strategic level of war that primarily affects war’s conduct, one might have expected that the law would focus upon it. Paradoxically, the current law generally ignores the strategic discourse and prefers to scrutinize the conduct of war through a tactical lens. This disregard of military strategy has a price that is demonstrated in the prevailing law of targeting. This Article challenges the current blind spot of IHL: its disregard of the direct consequences of war strategy and the war aims deriving from it. It asks those who want to comprehensively reduce war’s hazards to think strategically and to leverage military strategy as a constraining tool. The effect of the suggested approach is demonstrated through an analysis of targeting rules, where the restrictive attributes of military strategy, which could play a significant role in limiting targeting, have been overlooked. Harvard National Security Journal / Vol. 8 335 Table of Contents Introduction ........................................................................................................336 I. Strategy Determines War’s Patterns and Scope .........................................340 II. -
The Pacific War As Total War
[Chairman’s Summary] The Pacific War as Total War Junichiro Shoji The Forum of this fiscal year is the fifth project on the Pacific War starting from FY2007 and its theme was set as the “Pacific War as Total War”. In this year, the word called “post disaster” was born instead of “postwar” because of the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011. This shows that the great earthquake had a considerable impact on the Japanese society and it is still in our mind. On the other hand, this year is the 70th anniversary of the outbreak of the Pacific War and the 150th anniversary of the U.S. Civil War that occurred in the U.S. mainland and caused a total of about 600,000 deaths from the two armies. This war is said to be a precedent of total war. Nowadays the word “total war” is used vaguely without careful consideration in many cases, and it is occasionally used as a pronoun that means “put all efforts”. For example, a commentator described the championship game between Japanese team and the U.S. team in the FIFAWomen’s World Cup as the “total war”. A person who introduced the concept of “total war” for the first time in the history is French politician Leon Daudet. He published La guerre totale (The Total War) in 1918 based on the lessons learnt from the battle with Germany in the First World War. In the background, there was recognition that World War I was a totally different type of war from traditional wars in which only armies participated. -
What About Peacekeepers? Deterring Attacks Against Humanitarian Workers
What about Peacekeepers? Deterring Attacks against Humanitarian Workers Marcellina Priadi Uppsala University Department of Peace & Conflict Research Master Thesis Summer 2017 Word Count: 18,208 Abstract This thesis seeks to understand the phenomenon of attacks against humanitarian workers by asking: why are humanitarian workers attacked in some contexts, but not in others? By exploring the effects of deterrence as a security strategy, this thesis investigates the direct link between causes of attacks against humanitarian workers and humanitarian security. It argues that when humanitarian organisations involve peacekeepers directly in their humanitarian relief activities, this is likely to lead to a decrease in attacks. This is because peacekeepers are armed and able to function as a capable and credible counterthreat against belligerents for humanitarian organisations. A game- like theoretic model of the decision-making sequence leading up to attacks in the humanitarian space is applied to illustrate this. The theoretical argument is tested quantitatively on freshly collated data on peacekeeping activities using a negative binomial count model. Unexpectedly however, the results reveal a contradictory relationship to the hypothesis. Directly involving peacekeepers in humanitarian relief activities is associated with an increase in attacks against humanitarian workers. The surprising results are found to be significant and robust overall. 2 Acknowledgements I would like to take the opportunity to thank everyone that has assisted and supported me throughout this research process. To my classmates, for the camaraderie we have shared during this time and the immeasurable ways they have helped me to grow. To my teachers, who have challenged my thoughts and built the foundation for this thesis. -
Deterrence? What About Dissuasion? by MAJ Lim Guang He
Deterrence? What About Dissuasion? By MAJ Lim Guang He February 2020 Deterrence? What About Dissuasion? DETERRENCE? WHAT ABOUT DISSUASION? By MAJ Lim Guang He ABSTRACT In this essay, the author is not attempting to redefine deterrence but to encourage readers to consider the notion of acting before deterrence—through dissuasion. So what constitutes dissuasion and why consider it? The author feels that similar to deterrence, there is no direct answer as each country has its own set of unique security challenges and capabilities. Furthermore, the issue is made more complex as nuclear powers and non-nuclear powers employ different strategies. So, in this essay, the author attempts to: (1) elucidate the limitations of deterrence theory, (2) establish a coherent trend of elements that help define the concept of dissuasion, and (3) adapt them to the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF)’s defence policy. He first begins by analysing the limitations of classical (rational) deterrence theory and its modern derivatives in the security landscape of tomorrow. He then explores the interpretations of dissuasion today and how they can be applied. Finally, the author develops what dissuasion as a strategic concept means for Singapore and how the SAF can meld dissuasion into deterrence thinking. Keywords: Deterrence; Dissuasion; Asymmetric; Hybrid Warfare; Adversaries INTRODUCTION deterrence itself: is the SAF too entrenched in its Deterrence—a word that appears in almost every deterrence philosophy to think outside of deterrence? Is contemporary defence doctrine—including Singapore’s deterrence a sacred cow that contemporary defence ‘twin pillars of deterrence and diplomacy.’1 However, thinking must always link back to? Instead of arguing the original premise of nuclear capability and/or military the evolution of deterrence further and further away superiority as the backbone of deterrence has steadily from its conceptual roots, why not argue for a eroded into the 21st Century. -
Omnicide “Here Is What We Now Know: the United States and Russia Each Have an Actual Doomsday Machine.”
Omnicide “Here is what we now know: the United States and Russia each have an actual Doomsday Machine.” By Daniel Ellsberg From The Doomsday Machine, published by Bloomsbury. The book is an account of America’s nuclear program in the 1960s drawn from Ellsberg’s experience as a consultant to the Department of Defense and the White House, drafting Secretary Robert McNamara’s plans for nuclear war. Ellsberg is the author of Secrets, a book about his experiences leaking the Pentagon Papers. At the conclusion of his 1964 film, Dr. Strangelove, Stanley Kubrick introduced the concept of a “Doomsday Machine”—designed by the Soviet Union to deter nuclear attack against the country by automating the destruction of all human life as a response to such an attack. The movie’s Russian leader had installed the system before revealing it to the world, however, and it was now being triggered by a single nuclear explosion from an American B-52 sent off by a rogue commander without presidential authorization. Kubrick had borrowed the name and the concept of the Doomsday machine from my former colleague Herman Kahn, a Rand physicist with whom he had discussed it. In his 1960 book On Thermonuclear War, Kahn wrote that he would be able to design such a device. It could be produced within ten years and would be relatively cheap— since it could be placed in one’s own country or in the ocean. It would not depend on sending warheads halfway around the world. But, he said, the machine was obviously undesirable. It would be too difficult to control— too inflexible and automatic—and its failure “kills too many people”— everyone, in fact, an outcome that the philosopher John Somerville later termed “omnicide.” Kahn was sure in 1961 that no such system had been built, nor would it be, by either the United States or the Soviet Union. -
Great War, Total War : Combat and Mobilization on the Western Front, 1914–1918 / Edited by Roger Chickering and Stig Förster
Great War,Total War COMBAT AND MOBILIZATION ON THE WESTERN FRONT, 1914–1918 Edited by ROGER CHICKERING and STIG FÖRSTER GERMAN HISTORICAL INSTITUTE Washington, D.C. and The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK http://www.cup.cam.ac.uk 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, USA http://www.cup.org 10 Stamford Road, Oakleigh, Melbourne 3166, Australia Ruiz de Alarcón 13, 28014 Madrid, Spain © The German Historical Institute 2000 This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2000 Printed in the United States of America Typeface Bembo 11/13pt. System QuarkXPress [BTS] A catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data Great War, total war : combat and mobilization on the Western Front, 1914–1918 / edited by Roger Chickering and Stig Förster. p. cm. – (Publications of the German Historical Institute) Includes index. ISBN 0-521-77352-0 (hardbound) 1. World War, 1914–1918 – Campaigns – Western Front. I. Series. II. Chickering, Roger, 1942– III. Förster, Stig. D530.G68 1999 940.4¢14421–dc21 99-043669 ISBN 0 521 77352 0 hardback Contents Preface page ix Contributors xi Introduction Stig Förster 1 1 From Cabinet War to Total War: The Perspective of Military Doctrine, 1861–1918 Hew Strachan 19 2 World War I and the Theory of Total War: Reflections on the British and German Cases, 1914–1915 Roger Chickering 35 3 World War I and the Revolution in Logistics Martin van Creveld 57 4 Mass Warfare and the Impact of Technology Dennis E.