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Traffic Impacts and Infrastructure Needs—Final Report TECHNICAL REPORT 0-6847-1 TXDOT PROJECT NUMBER 0-6847 AN ASSESSMENT OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES: TRAFFIC IMPACTS AND INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS— FINAL REPORT Dr. Kara Kockelman (Research Supervisor) with Dr. Stephen Boyles, Dr. Peter Stone, Dr. Dan Fagnant, Rahul Patel, Michael W. Levin, Dr. Guni Sharon, Michele Simoni, Dr. Michael Albert, Hagen Fritz, Rebecca Hutchinson, Prateek Bansal, Gleb Domnenko, Pavle Bujanovic, Bumsik Kim, Elham Pourrahmani, Sudesh Agrawal, Tianxin Li, Josiah Hanna, Aqshems Nichols & Dr. Jia Li CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN http://library.ctr.utexas.edu/ctr-publications/0-6847-1.pdf 1. Report No. 2. Government 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. FHWA/TX-17/0-6847-1 Accession No. 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date An Assessment of Autonomous Vehicles: Traffic Impacts and December 2016; Published March 2017 Infrastructure Needs—Final Report 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Dr. Kara Kockelman, Dr. Stephen Boyles, Dr. Peter Stone, Dr. 0-6847-1 Dan Fagnant, Rahul Patel, Michael W. Levin, Dr. Guni Sharon, Michele Simoni, Dr. Michael Albert, Hagen Fritz, Rebecca Hutchinson, Prateek Bansal, Gleb Domnenko, Pavle Bujanovic, Bumsik Kim, Elham Pourrahmani, Sudesh Agrawal, Tianxin Li, Josiah Hanna, Aqshems Nichols & Dr. Jia Li 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Center for Transportation Research 11. Contract or Grant No. The University of Texas at Austin 1616 Guadalupe Street, Suite 4.202 0-6847 Austin, TX 78701 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Texas Department of Transportation Technical Report Research and Technology Implementation Office January 2015 – December 2016 P.O. Box 5080 Austin, TX 78763-5080 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 15. Supplementary Notes Project performed in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration. 16. Abstract The project began by understanding the current state of practice and trends. NHTSA’s four-level taxonomy for automated vehicles was used to classify smart driving technologies and infrastructure needs. The project used surveys to analyze and gain an understanding of the U.S. general public’s perception towards such technologies and their willingness to adopt such technologies. Respondents were asked several anticipatory questions including their technology preferences (buying/selling their vehicles or simply adding new technologies to their current vehicles), and their comfort with and willingness to pay for connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). The team found that advanced automation technologies are not yet popular. This research report also describes the potential crash, congestion, and other impacts of CAVs in Texas, and provides initial monetary estimates of those impacts, at various levels of market penetration. Our findings indicate that CAVs will lead to increased vehicle miles traveled (VMT) because, essentially, drivers experience falling travel time burdens. Their values of travel time that make using a vehicle “costly” tend to decrease because they are more comfortable heading to more distant locations and those unable to drive themselves, such as the handicapped, can now safely travel. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement self-driving vehicles, connected vehicles, connected No restrictions. This document is available to the autonomous vehicles, automated vehicles, smart public through the National Technical Information intersections, transport planning, traffic impacts, Services, Springfield, Virginia 22161; www.ntis.gov. infrastructure needs 19. Security Classif. (of report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 182 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized An Assessment of Autonomous Vehicles: Traffic Impacts and Infrastructure Needs—Final Report Dr. Kara Kockelman (Research Supervisor) with Dr. Stephen Boyles, Dr. Peter Stone, Dr. Dan Fagnant, Rahul Patel, Michael W. Levin, Dr. Guni Sharon, Michele Simoni, Dr. Michael Albert, Hagen Fritz, Rebecca Hutchinson, Prateek Bansal, Gleb Domnenko, Pavle Bujanovic, Bumsik Kim, Elham Pourrahmani, Sudesh Agrawal, Tianxin Li, Josiah Hanna, Aqshems Nichols & Dr. Jia Li CTR Technical Report: 0-6847-1 Report Date: December 2016; Published March 2017 Project: 0-6847 Project Title: An Assessment of Autonomous Vehicles: Traffic Impacts and Infrastructure Needs Sponsoring Agency: Texas Department of Transportation Performing Agency: Center for Transportation Research at The University of Texas at Austin Project performed in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration. Center for Transportation Research The University of Texas at Austin 1616 Guadalupe, Suite 4.202 Austin, TX 78701 http://ctr.utexas.edu/ Disclaimers Author’s Disclaimer: The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official view or policies of the Federal Highway Administration or the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT). This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. Patent Disclaimer: There was no invention or discovery conceived or first actually reduced to practice in the course of or under this contract, including any art, method, process, machine manufacture, design or composition of matter, or any new useful improvement thereof, or any variety of plant, which is or may be patentable under the patent laws of the United States of America or any foreign country. Engineering Disclaimer NOT INTENDED FOR CONSTRUCTION, BIDDING, OR PERMIT PURPOSES. Project Engineer: Kara Kockelman Professional Engineer License State and Number: Texas No. 93443 P. E. Designation: Research Supervisor v Acknowledgments The authors express appreciation to Project Manager Darrin Jensen, and TxDOT employees Andrew Mao, Alex Power, Travis Scruggs, Janie Temple, Jianming Ma, Darcie Schipull, and Jeff Miles who served as members of the Project Monitoring Committee. Amy Banker provided most of the administrative support needed to carry out this project, and Maureen Kelly provided extensive editing support. Other project researchers were also instrumental on various facets of the work. These include Ben Loeb, Dr. Duncan Stewart, Dr. Jun Liu, Scott Kilgore, Neil Quarles, and Krishna Murthy Gurumurthy. Related TxDOT Projects This report benefits from work conducted in TxDOT Projects 0-6838 and 0-6849, which examine the benefits of a connected and autonomous transport system in Texas and go deeply into the safety, design and operation of the Texas highway system. For details and associated project publications for those and other TxDOT research initiatives, please see the CTR-hosted TxDOT library catalog at http://ctr.utexas.edu/library/. vi Table of Contents Chapter 1. Executive Summary ....................................................................................................1 Chapter 2. Introduction.................................................................................................................5 2.1 Synthesis of Smart Driving Technologies .............................................................................7 2.1.1 Overview: NHTSA’s Taxonomy ....................................................................................7 2.1.2 Level 0 Technologies ....................................................................................................11 2.1.3 Level 1 Technologies ....................................................................................................15 2.1.4 Level 2 Technologies ....................................................................................................17 2.1.5 Level 3 Technologies ....................................................................................................17 2.1.6 Level 4 Technologies ....................................................................................................18 2.2 Discussion ............................................................................................................................19 2.2.1 Driving Forces ..............................................................................................................19 2.2.2 Barriers ..........................................................................................................................21 2.2.3 Mainstream Adoption ...................................................................................................22 2.2.4 Traffic Impact ...............................................................................................................22 2.2.5 Infrastructure Needs ......................................................................................................23 Chapter 3. Surveys to Forecast Adoption Rates .......................................................................25 3.1 Prior Survey Results ............................................................................................................25 3.1.1 Public Opinion Surveys about Adoption of CAVs .......................................................25 3.1.2 Anticipating Long-Term Adoption of New Technologies ............................................27 3.2 Survey Design and Data Processing ....................................................................................27 3.2.1 Questionnaire
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