Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB
Methods and Instruments to Foster Sustainable Growth and Resilience Inter‐American Development Bank Washington, 20 November 2017
Climate Change and Wind Speeds Codes and Enforcement
Tony Gibbs FREng
Hurricane Catarina as it approached the Brazilian shore at midday on 27 March 2004. (Illustration courtesy Greg Holland; satellite data courtesy NOAA/University of Wisconsin.)
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Hurricane Ivan just before striking Grenada
Central Pressure 956 mbar Peak Gust Wind ~135 mph
“The most intense hurricane ever recorded so close to the equator in the North Atlantic” –NHC
Hurricane Gustav 2008
A new World Surface Wind Gust Record was registered at the Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station (78317) in Pinar del Rio, Cuba, during hurricane Gustav. The Dines pressure tube anemometer recorded a gust of 340 km/h (=211mph).
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Effect of Increasing Annual Frequencies of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes on the Peak Gust Wind Speeds Hazard Curve
200 180 160 140 120 100 80
60 Hurricane Hazard Based on Current Climate History 40 Frequencies Multiplied by: Cat 0=1, Cat 1=1, Cat 2=1, Cat 3=1, Cat 4=2, Cat 5=2 20 Frequencies Multiplied by: Cat 0=1, Cat 1=1, Cat 2=1, Cat 3=1, Cat 4=3, Cat 5=3
Peak Gust Wind Speed in Open Terrain (mph) 0 10 100 1000 10000 11 Return Period (Years)
Percentage Increase in Basic Wind Speed in Eastern Caribbean vs Percentage Increase in Annual Rates of Cat 4 and 5 Hurricanes
15%
10%
Category II Buildings 5% Category III and IV Buildings Increase in Basic Wind Speed
0% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%
Increase in Annual Frequency of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes
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The 68‐square‐mile island, which makes up one half of the dual island state of Antigua and Barbuda, was where the Category 5 hurricane first made landfall before it continued on its relentless churn through the Caribbean and up north to Cuba and the U.S., …. land
over
Hurricane
5 ‐ gust 4
mph
181 ‐ Category
= 164
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From a meteorological standpoint, Maria was nearly a worst-case scenario for the territory: The centre of a huge, nearly Category 5 hurricane made a direct hit on Puerto Rico, lashing the island with wind and rain for longer than 30 hours.
"It was as if a 50-to 60-mile-wide tornado raged across Puerto Rico, like a buzz saw." Jeff Weber, a meteorologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, has told Vox.
Cat 3 Hurricane Cat 3‐4 Hurricane
Cat 5 Hurricane > 173 mph gust over land
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Paediatric Ward – St Kitts
Hurricane Georges 1998 Photo Tony Gibbs
Hurricane Andrew in Florida 1992 Photo Tony Gibbs
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Dominica
Hurricane David 1979 – Masonry Photo Tony Gibbs
Dominica
Hurricane David 1979 – Steel Photo Tony Gibbs
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Dominica
Hurricane David 1979 – Concrete Photo Tony Gibbs
Antigua
Hurricane Luis 1995 – Timber Photo Tony Gibbs
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Antigua
Hurricane Luis 1995 – Timber Photo Tony Gibbs
Antigua
Hurricane Luis 1995 – Utilities Photo Tony Gibbs
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telecommunications tower – Dominica
Hurricane David 1979 Photo Tony Gibbs
St Croix
Hurricane Hugo 1989 – Oil Storage Tanks Photo: Munich Re
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Grenada
The Presbyterian Kirk – Hurricane Ivan 2004 Photo Tony Gibbs
Grenada
The National Stadium – Hurricane Ivan 2004 Photo Tony Gibbs
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So what will we do tomorrow?
Professional bodies and multinational agencies have a hugh opportunity.
Should we: oWAIT for better information? oREVIEW contract conditionalities? odebate the SUBJECT? or ACT!
50‐Year Wind Speeds for Caribbean
120 130 120 120 110 120 130 120 110 100 110 100 90 80 90 70 60 130 50 120 130 40
30 100 90
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1700‐Year Wind Speeds for Caribbean
170 190 170 190 180 180 170 180 170
160 150 170 140 150 160 130 120 110 200 100 190
90 80
160 150 140
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Photo: UWO‐BLWTL
Sketch showing effects of topography on wind velocity on a hilly island
100 Vg
Speed up
120 Vs
V 100 100 100 g Vg Vg
80 60 40 Vs Vs 10 m
Open sea Winward Speed up over Sheltered leeward Coast hill crest coast
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Winds 17.20 N Probability 1% / year, 100-Year Return Time Antigua 61.925 W 61.925 1. St. John’s 61. 65 W Downtown 47 m/s East side of town 51 m/s 1
2. Parham Desalinization plant 50 m/s Waterfront by town 47 m/s Hill above town 53 m/s Ross Wagenseil2 for PGDM 3. English and Falmouth Harbours Nelson’s Dockyard 48 m/s April 2001 Falmouth SE 41 m/s Falmouth NW 52 m/s
4. Jolly Harbour 4 Channel entrance 45 m/s Inner boat basin 44 m/s Beach front 45 m/s
N Directory Topo. Map
KILOMETERS 3
ARC-MINUTES 10 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr 5 PGDM MILES May Wind 16.98 N 5 2001 Wave Surge Wind Speeds
Storm Category 5 012345 knots 25 50 75 100 125 mph 25 50 75 100 125 150 50 100 150 200 250 m/s 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 0 0 Min Max
9 of the 13 volumes of (CUBiC) – original cover style
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Country Standards Laws Enforcement
Anguilla Y Y Y AntiguaYYY? BahamasYYY Barbados Y NN Belize Y NN BVIYYY? CaymanYYY Dominica Y Y ? N GrenadaYYY?
Status Guyana NNN Jamaica Y Y Y MontserratYYY St KittsYYY? St Lucia Y NN St Vincent Y NN TCIYYY Trinidad N YY
Hurricane Luis in French Saint Martin and Dutch Sint Maarten
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Dutch side (Netherlands Antilles Meteorological Service): Highest gust: 99 knots or 51 ms-1
French side: No anemometer measurements available
Dutch side: Catastrophic damage - 100% GDP direct - 100% GDP indirect
French side: - Not much damage
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Regulatory Regime on the Dutch side: - a variety of standards *Dutch * home base of designer * other “equivalent” standards - checking by PWD * normally by in-house staff * rarely by hired consultants
Regulatory Regime on the French side:
- French standards or “norms”
- bureau de contrôle checks: * design * construction quality assurance mechanisms
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OECS Building Code Grenada St Vincent & the Grenadines St Lucia Dominica Montserrat St Kitts & Nevis Antigua & Barbuda Anguilla British Virgin Islands
September 2016
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