Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB

Methods and Instruments to Foster Sustainable Growth and Resilience Inter‐American Development Bank Washington, 20 November 2017

Climate Change and Wind Speeds Codes and Enforcement

Tony Gibbs FREng

Hurricane Catarina as it approached the Brazilian shore at midday on 27 March 2004. (Illustration courtesy Greg Holland; satellite data courtesy NOAA/University of Wisconsin.)

Tony Gibbs FREng 1 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB

Hurricane Ivan just before striking Grenada

Central Pressure 956 mbar Peak Gust Wind ~135 mph

“The most intense hurricane ever recorded so close to the equator in the North Atlantic” –NHC

Hurricane Gustav 2008

A new World Surface Wind Gust Record was registered at the Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station (78317) in Pinar del Rio, Cuba, during hurricane Gustav. The Dines pressure tube anemometer recorded a gust of 340 km/h (=211mph).

Tony Gibbs FREng 2 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB

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Effect of Increasing Annual Frequencies of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes on the Peak Gust Wind Speeds Hazard Curve

200 180 160 140 120 100 80

60 Hurricane Hazard Based on Current Climate History 40 Frequencies Multiplied by: Cat 0=1, Cat 1=1, Cat 2=1, Cat 3=1, Cat 4=2, Cat 5=2 20 Frequencies Multiplied by: Cat 0=1, Cat 1=1, Cat 2=1, Cat 3=1, Cat 4=3, Cat 5=3

Peak Gust Wind Speed in Open Terrain (mph) 0 10 100 1000 10000 11 Return Period (Years)

Percentage Increase in Basic Wind Speed in Eastern Caribbean vs Percentage Increase in Annual Rates of Cat 4 and 5 Hurricanes

15%

10%

Category II Buildings 5% Category III and IV Buildings Increase in Basic Wind Speed

0% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%

Increase in Annual Frequency of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes

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The 68‐square‐mile island, which makes up one half of the dual island state of and Barbuda, was where the Category 5 hurricane first made landfall before it continued on its relentless churn through the Caribbean and up north to Cuba and the U.S., …. land

over

Hurricane

5 ‐ gust 4

mph

181 ‐ Category

= 164

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From a meteorological standpoint, Maria was nearly a worst-case scenario for the territory: The centre of a huge, nearly Category 5 hurricane made a direct hit on Puerto Rico, lashing the island with wind and rain for longer than 30 hours.

"It was as if a 50-to 60-mile-wide tornado raged across Puerto Rico, like a buzz saw." Jeff Weber, a meteorologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, has told Vox.

Cat 3 Hurricane Cat 3‐4 Hurricane

Cat 5 Hurricane > 173 mph gust over land

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Paediatric Ward – St Kitts

Hurricane Georges 1998 Photo Tony Gibbs

Hurricane Andrew in Florida 1992 Photo Tony Gibbs

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Dominica

Hurricane David 1979 – Masonry Photo Tony Gibbs

Dominica

Hurricane David 1979 – Steel Photo Tony Gibbs

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Dominica

Hurricane David 1979 – Concrete Photo Tony Gibbs

Antigua

Hurricane Luis 1995 – Timber Photo Tony Gibbs

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Antigua

Hurricane Luis 1995 – Timber Photo Tony Gibbs

Antigua

Hurricane Luis 1995 – Utilities Photo Tony Gibbs

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telecommunications tower – Dominica

Hurricane David 1979 Photo Tony Gibbs

St Croix

Hurricane Hugo 1989 – Oil Storage Tanks Photo: Munich Re

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Grenada

The Presbyterian Kirk – Hurricane Ivan 2004 Photo Tony Gibbs

Grenada

The National Stadium – Hurricane Ivan 2004 Photo Tony Gibbs

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So what will we do tomorrow?

Professional bodies and multinational agencies have a hugh opportunity.

Should we: oWAIT for better information? oREVIEW contract conditionalities? odebate the SUBJECT? or ACT!

50‐Year Wind Speeds for Caribbean

120 130 120 120 110 120 130 120 110 100 110 100 90 80 90 70 60 130 50 120 130 40

30 100 90

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1700‐Year Wind Speeds for Caribbean

170 190 170 190 180 180 170 180 170

160 150 170 140 150 160 130 120 110 200 100 190

90 80

160 150 140

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Photo: UWO‐BLWTL

Sketch showing effects of topography on wind velocity on a hilly island

100 Vg

Speed up

120 Vs

V 100 100 100 g Vg Vg

80 60 40 Vs Vs 10 m

Open sea Winward Speed up over Sheltered leeward Coast hill crest coast

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Winds 17.20 N Probability 1% / year, 100-Year Return Time Antigua 61.925 W 61.925 1. St. John’s 61. 65 W Downtown 47 m/s East side of town 51 m/s 1

2. Parham Desalinization plant 50 m/s Waterfront by town 47 m/s Hill above town 53 m/s Ross Wagenseil2 for PGDM 3. English and Falmouth Harbours Nelson’s Dockyard 48 m/s April 2001 Falmouth SE 41 m/s Falmouth NW 52 m/s

4. Jolly Harbour 4 Channel entrance 45 m/s Inner boat basin 44 m/s Beach front 45 m/s

N Directory Topo. Map

KILOMETERS 3

ARC-MINUTES 10 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr 5 PGDM MILES May Wind 16.98 N 5 2001 Wave Surge Wind Speeds

Storm Category 5 012345 knots 25 50 75 100 125 mph 25 50 75 100 125 150 50 100 150 200 250 m/s 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 0 0 Min Max

9 of the 13 volumes of (CUBiC) – original cover style

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Country Standards Laws Enforcement

Anguilla Y Y Y AntiguaYYY? BahamasYYY Y NN Belize Y NN BVIYYY? CaymanYYY Dominica Y Y ? N GrenadaYYY?

Status Guyana NNN Jamaica Y Y Y MontserratYYY St KittsYYY? St Lucia Y NN St Vincent Y NN TCIYYY Trinidad N YY

Hurricane Luis in French and Dutch Sint Maarten

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Dutch side (Netherlands Antilles Meteorological Service): Highest gust: 99 knots or 51 ms-1

French side: No anemometer measurements available

Dutch side: Catastrophic damage - 100% GDP direct - 100% GDP indirect

French side: - Not much damage

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Regulatory Regime on the Dutch side: - a variety of standards *Dutch * home base of designer * other “equivalent” standards - checking by PWD * normally by in-house staff * rarely by hired consultants

Regulatory Regime on the French side:

- French standards or “norms”

- bureau de contrôle checks: * design * construction quality assurance mechanisms

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OECS Building Code Grenada St Vincent & the Grenadines St Lucia Dominica St Kitts & Nevis Antigua & Barbuda British Virgin Islands

September 2016

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