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Climate Change and Wind Speeds Codes and Enforcement Tony Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Methods and Instruments to Foster Sustainable Growth and Resilience Inter‐American Development Bank Washington, 20 November 2017 Climate Change and Wind Speeds Codes and Enforcement Tony Gibbs FREng Hurricane Catarina as it approached the Brazilian shore at midday on 27 March 2004. (Illustration courtesy Greg Holland; satellite data courtesy NOAA/University of Wisconsin.) Tony Gibbs FREng 1 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Hurricane Ivan just before striking Grenada Central Pressure 956 mbar Peak Gust Wind ~135 mph “The most intense hurricane ever recorded so close to the equator in the North Atlantic” –NHC Hurricane Gustav 2008 A new World Surface Wind Gust Record was registered at the Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station (78317) in Pinar del Rio, Cuba, during hurricane Gustav. The Dines pressure tube anemometer recorded a gust of 340 km/h (=211mph). Tony Gibbs FREng 2 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Tony Gibbs FREng 3 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Tony Gibbs FREng 4 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Tony Gibbs FREng 5 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Effect of Increasing Annual Frequencies of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes on the Peak Gust Wind Speeds Hazard Curve 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 Hurricane Hazard Based on Current Climate History 40 Frequencies Multiplied by: Cat 0=1, Cat 1=1, Cat 2=1, Cat 3=1, Cat 4=2, Cat 5=2 20 Frequencies Multiplied by: Cat 0=1, Cat 1=1, Cat 2=1, Cat 3=1, Cat 4=3, Cat 5=3 Peak Gust Wind Speed in Open Terrain (mph) 0 10 100 1000 10000 11 Return Period (Years) Percentage Increase in Basic Wind Speed in Eastern Caribbean vs Percentage Increase in Annual Rates of Cat 4 and 5 Hurricanes 15% 10% Category II Buildings 5% Category III and IV Buildings Increase in Basic Wind Speed 0% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% Increase in Annual Frequency of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes Tony Gibbs FREng 6 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB The 68‐square‐mile island, which makes up one half of the dual island state of Antigua and Barbuda, was where the Category 5 hurricane first made landfall before it continued on its relentless churn through the Caribbean and up north to Cuba and the U.S., …. land over Hurricane 5 ‐ gust 4 mph 181 ‐ Category = 164 Tony Gibbs FREng 7 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB From a meteorological standpoint, Maria was nearly a worst-case scenario for the territory: The centre of a huge, nearly Category 5 hurricane made a direct hit on Puerto Rico, lashing the island with wind and rain for longer than 30 hours. "It was as if a 50-to 60-mile-wide tornado raged across Puerto Rico, like a buzz saw." Jeff Weber, a meteorologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, has told Vox. Cat 3 Hurricane Cat 3‐4 Hurricane Cat 5 Hurricane > 173 mph gust over land Tony Gibbs FREng 8 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Paediatric Ward – St Kitts Hurricane Georges 1998 Photo Tony Gibbs Hurricane Andrew in Florida 1992 Photo Tony Gibbs Tony Gibbs FREng 9 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Dominica Hurricane David 1979 – Masonry Photo Tony Gibbs Dominica Hurricane David 1979 – Steel Photo Tony Gibbs Tony Gibbs FREng 10 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Dominica Hurricane David 1979 – Concrete Photo Tony Gibbs Antigua Hurricane Luis 1995 – Timber Photo Tony Gibbs Tony Gibbs FREng 11 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Antigua Hurricane Luis 1995 – Timber Photo Tony Gibbs Antigua Hurricane Luis 1995 – Utilities Photo Tony Gibbs Tony Gibbs FREng 12 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB telecommunications tower – Dominica Hurricane David 1979 Photo Tony Gibbs St Croix Hurricane Hugo 1989 – Oil Storage Tanks Photo: Munich Re Tony Gibbs FREng 13 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Grenada The Presbyterian Kirk – Hurricane Ivan 2004 Photo Tony Gibbs Grenada The National Stadium – Hurricane Ivan 2004 Photo Tony Gibbs Tony Gibbs FREng 14 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB So what will we do tomorrow? Professional bodies and multinational agencies have a hugh opportunity. Should we: oWAIT for better information? oREVIEW contract conditionalities? odebate the SUBJECT? or ACT! 50‐Year Wind Speeds for Caribbean 120 130 120 120 110 120 130 120 110 100 110 100 90 80 90 70 60 130 50 120 130 40 30 100 90 Tony Gibbs FREng 15 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB 1700‐Year Wind Speeds for Caribbean 170 190 170 190 180 180 170 180 170 160 150 170 140 150 160 130 120 110 200 100 190 90 80 160 150 140 Tony Gibbs FREng 16 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Photo: UWO‐BLWTL Sketch showing effects of topography on wind velocity on a hilly island 100 Vg Speed up 120 Vs V 100 100 100 g Vg Vg 80 60 40 Vs Vs 10 m Open sea Winward Speed up over Sheltered leeward Coast hill crest coast Tony Gibbs FREng 17 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Winds 17.20 N Probability 1% / year, 100-Year Return Time Antigua 61.925 W 61.925 1. St. John’s 61. 65 W 65 61. Downtown 47 m/s East side of town 51 m/s 1 2. Parham Desalinization plant 50 m/s Waterfront by town 47 m/s Hill above town 53 m/s Ross Wagenseil2 for PGDM 3. English and Falmouth Harbours Nelson’s Dockyard 48 m/s April 2001 Falmouth SE 41 m/s Falmouth NW 52 m/s 4. Jolly Harbour 4 Channel entrance 45 m/s Inner boat basin 44 m/s Beach front 45 m/s N Directory Topo. Map KILOMETERS 3 ARC-MINUTES 10 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr 5 PGDM MILES May Wind 16.98 N 5 2001 Wave Surge Wind Speeds Storm Category 5 012345 knots 25 50 75 100 125 mph 25 50 75 100 125 150 50 100 150 200 250 m/s 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 0 0 Min Max 9 of the 13 volumes of (CUBiC) – original cover style Tony Gibbs FREng 18 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Country Standards Laws Enforcement Anguilla Y Y Y AntiguaYYY? BahamasYYY Barbados Y NN Belize Y NN BVIYYY? CaymanYYY Dominica Y Y ? N GrenadaYYY? Status Guyana NNN Jamaica Y Y Y MontserratYYY St KittsYYY? St Lucia Y NN St Vincent Y NN TCIYYY Trinidad N YY Hurricane Luis in French Saint Martin and Dutch Sint Maarten Tony Gibbs FREng 19 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Dutch side (Netherlands Antilles Meteorological Service): Highest gust: 99 knots or 51 ms-1 French side: No anemometer measurements available Dutch side: Catastrophic damage - 100% GDP direct - 100% GDP indirect French side: - Not much damage Tony Gibbs FREng 20 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB Regulatory Regime on the Dutch side: - a variety of standards *Dutch * home base of designer * other “equivalent” standards - checking by PWD * normally by in-house staff * rarely by hired consultants Regulatory Regime on the French side: - French standards or “norms” - bureau de contrôle checks: * design * construction quality assurance mechanisms Tony Gibbs FREng 21 Climate change and wind speeds 20 November 2017 Codes and Enforcement IDB OECS Building Code Grenada St Vincent & the Grenadines St Lucia Dominica Montserrat St Kitts & Nevis Antigua & Barbuda Anguilla British Virgin Islands September 2016 Tony Gibbs FREng 22.
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