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'Meteorological Hazards' by Tony Gibbs Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar The Trinidad and Tobago Institute of Architects CPD Seminar July 2018 Meteorological Hazards (wind, rain, surge, waves) Tony Gibbs FREng HonTTIA Secretary General of CCEO • Historical development of the wind hazard for building design in the Caribbean o wind speeds o topographic effects o climate change o the 2017 hurricane season • Intensity-duration-frequency relationships and rational storm-water drainage design • Regional maps of storm surge and waves Tony Gibbs FREng 1 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar Historical development of the wind hazard wind speeds Tony Gibbs FREng 2 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar CP3 Chapter V:Part 2 – 1952 75 mph – 1-minute average (= 93 mph or 41 m/s 3-second gust) Rudimentary procedures South Florida Building Code – 1960s 120 mph – fastest mile (= 137 mph or 61 m/s 3-second gust) Rudimentary procedures Tony Gibbs FREng 3 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar The Council of Caribbean Engineering Organisations (CCEO) 1969 gave a mandate to the Barbados Association of Professional Engineers (BAPE) to prepare a wind load standard Tony Gibbs, AR Matthews, HC Shellard “Wind Loads for Structural Design – 1970” including HC Shellard “Extreme Winds in the Commonwealth Caribbean” Tony Gibbs FREng 4 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar Suggested Basic Wind Speeds (mph, 3s) for Some Commonwealth Caribbean Countries 1970 Jamaica 120 (= 54 m/s) BVI 120 (= 54 m/s) Leeward Islands 120 (= 54 m/s) St Lucia, St Vincent 120 (= 54 m/s) Barbados 120 (= 54 m/s) Grenada, Tobago 100 (= 45 m/s) Trinidad 90 (= 40 m/s) Guyana 50 (= 22 m/s) 1971 – Norris Helliwell Tony Gibbs FREng 5 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar 1981 Revision of “Wind Loads for Structural Design” (3s) CCEO – BAPE – NCST – OAS Tony Gibbs – HE Browne – BA Rocheford Jamaica 56 m/s (= 125 mph) BVI 64 m/s (= 143 mph) Leeward Islands 64 m/s (= 143 mph) St Lucia, Dominica 58 m/s (= 130 mph) Barbados, St Vincent 58 m/s (= 130 mph) Grenada, Tobago 50 m/s (= 112 mph) Trinidad 45 m/s (= 101 mph) Guyana 22 m/s (= 49 mph) BA Rocheford (Caribbean Meteorological Institute) 1984 Revision of Wind Speeds – 10-minute Belize – Centre 29.0 m/s (= 65 mph) [= 93 mph 3s] Jamaica – N 37.0 m/s (= 83 mph) [= 119 mph 3s] Jamaica – S 41.0 m/s (= 92 mph) [= 132 mph 3s] St Kitts 44.5 m/s (= 100 mph) [= 143 mph 3s] Antigua 46.0 m/s (= 103 mph) [= 147 mph 3s] Dominica 41.0 m/s (= 92 mph) [= 132 mph 3s] St Lucia 43.0 m/s (= 96 mph) [= 137 mph 3s] Barbados 42.0 m/s (= 94 mph) [= 134 mph 3s] Tobago 31.5 m/s (= 70 mph) [= 100 mph 3s] Trinidad – Central 27.5 m/s (= 62 mph) [= 89 mph 3s] Tony Gibbs FREng 6 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar Wind Speed Averaging Time A Point of Confusion Peter Vickery Durst-Deacon Tony Gibbs FREng 7 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar The Caribbean Uniform Building Code (CUBiC:1985) The Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Laboratory (University of Western Ontario) Davenport – Surry – Georgiou Simulation of hurricane wind climate using: o drop in barometric pressure; o radius of the ring to maximum wind speeds; o translation speed; o angle of its track; o position of the point of interest relative to the centre of the storm. Tony Gibbs FREng 8 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar CUBiC2 2Part Section Tony Gibbs FREng 9 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar Maximum Wind Speeds (50-year return) 23 N 89.5 W 89.5 59 W 59 CDMP 9 N Wind Speeds Storm Category 012345 knots 25 50 75 100 125 mph 25 50 75 100 125 150 kph 50 100 150 200 250 m/s 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Ir P C van Staalduinen and Dr Ir C P W Geurts TNO (Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research) “Hurricane Hazard in the Netherlands Antilles ….” 1997 Tony Gibbs FREng 10 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar Wind Hazard Maps for the Caribbean Basin (3-second mph at 33ft) Overall region and individual islands April 2008 Principal researcher – Applied Research Associates (Peter Vickery) Regional coordinator – Tony Gibbs (CEP International Ltd) Executing agency – Pan American Health Organisation (Dana van Alphen) Funding agency – United States Agency for International Development (Tim Callaghan and Julie Leonard) Tony Gibbs FREng 11 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar Caribbean Basin Wind Hazard Maps: a series of overall, regional, wind-hazard maps using uniform, state-of-the-art approaches covering all of the Caribbean islands and the Caribbean coastal areas of South and Central America Contour plots of modelled minimum central pressures (mbar) 50 year return period. Contours represent the minimum pressure anywhere within 250 km of a point Tony Gibbs FREng 12 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar 50 Year Wind Speeds for Caribbean 120 130 120 120 110 120 130 120 110 100 110 100 90 80 90 70 60 130 50 120 130 40 30 100 90 100 Year Wind Speeds for Caribbean 130 140 130 130 140 140 130 130 120 110 120 110 100 100 90 150 80 120 70 60 140 150 140 50 120 40 110 30 100 30 Tony Gibbs FREng 13 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar 700 Year Wind Speeds for Caribbean 180 160 180 170 160 170 170 160 150 140 150 160 130 130 140 120 110 100 190 90 170 80 70 150 140 130 120 1700 Year Wind Speeds for Caribbean 170 190 170 190 180 180 170 180 170 160 150 170 140 150 160 130 120 110 200 100 190 90 80 160 150 140 Tony Gibbs FREng 14 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar Tony Gibbs FREng 15 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar Location Return Period (years) 700 1700 Trinidad (S) 87 110 Trinidad (N) 128 147 Isla Margarita 133 152 Grenada 154 168 Curacao 149 165 Bonaire 149 156 Peak gust wind Aruba 146 162 Barbados 152 169 speeds (mph) in flat Saint Vincent 155 171 Saint Lucia 155 172 Martinique 159 171 open terrain as a Dominica 159 172 Guadeloupe 157 168 function of return Montserrat 161 172 Belize 150 161 period for selected St. Kitts and Nevis 163 170 Antigua and Barbuda 160 168 locations in the Saint Martin/Sint Maarten 167 175 Anguilla 165 176 US Virgin Islands 167 176 Caribbean British Virgin Islands 169 180 Grand Cayman 187 198 Little Cayman/Cayman Brac 178 197 Turks & Caicos (Grand Turk) 150 162 Turks & Caicos (Providenciales) 155 170 Andros 162 180 Eleuthera 165 180 New Providence (Nassau) 163 180 Great Abaco 162 178 Grand Bahama (Freeport) 161 175 3.0 Non-Hurricane 2.5 Hurricane 2.0 1.5 1.0 Wind Load Factor Load Wind 0.5 0.0 1 10 100 1000 10000 Return Period (Years) 2 Wind load factor (VT/V50) for Hurricane and Non-Hurricane Wind Speeds plotted vs return period Tony Gibbs FREng 16 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar 2 Contour plots of (V700/V50) 1.2 2 . 2 . 1 1 1 .2 1 .2 1.2 .3 1 1.2 2 . 3 1.2 . 1 1 .2 1 1.1 1. 1 1 . 1 3 . 1 1.2 .2 1 1.3 3 1. 1.2 1.3 1. 1.4 .5 4 .5 1.6 1 1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 2 1.9 Contour plots of importance factor for ASCE category III and IV structures 2 defined by I=(V1700/V700) Tony Gibbs FREng 17 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar 3.0 Non-Hurricane 2.5 Hurricane 2.0 1.5 1.0 Wind Load Factor Load Wind 0.5 0.0 1 10 100 1000 10000 Return Period (Years) (Vrare/Vfrequent) increases with closeness to the equator Tony Gibbs FREng 18 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar The 1933 Hurricane Tony Gibbs FREng 19 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar Trinidad Hurricane Wilmoth Houdini and his Humming Birds New York 19 October 1933 The Catholic priest, Reverend Father John, Told the story how the storm began, He said it was about ten o’clock, When Cedros got the fatal shock, A man, a woman and three children cried, The woman was hit by a flying galvanise, My sympathies extended to the land of Iëre, Sans d’humanite topographic effects Tony Gibbs FREng 20 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar o Topographic effects are very important in most Caribbean countries. o This issue receives attention in most modern wind-loading standards. Wind speed-up is recognised over hills, ridges, and escarpments. o Valleys are sometimes missing. Photo: UWO-BLWTL Tony Gibbs FREng 21 Meteorological Hazards 23 July 2018 TTIA CPD Seminar Sketch showing effects of topography on wind velocity on a hilly island 100 Vg Speed up 120 Vs V 100 100 100 g Vg Vg 80 60 40 Vs Vs 10 m Open sea Winward Speed up over Sheltered leeward Coast hill crest coast Winds 17.20 N Probability 1% / year, 100-Year Return Time Antigua 61.925 W 61.925 1. St. John’s 61. 65 W 65 61. Downtown 47 m/s East side of town 51 m/s 1 2. Parham Desalinization plant 50 m/s Waterfront by town 47 m/s Hill above town 53 m/s Ross Wagenseil2 for PGDM 3.
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