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Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclone Related Mortalities Temporal Analysis 88 6 Applications of Findings

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Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclone Related Mortalities Temporal Analysis 88 6 Applications of Findings VULNERABILITY TO TROPICAL CYCLONE RELATED MORTALITIES ON HISPANIOLA A thesis submitted To Kent State University in partial Fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Masters of Arts By Bryce Kastelein December 2014 © Copyright All rights reserved Except for previously published materials Thesis written by Bryce Kastelein B.S., Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, 2011 M.A., Kent State University, 2014 Approved by Thomas Schmidlin, Professor, Ph.D., Geography, Masters Advisor Mandy Munro-Stasiuk, Professor, Ph.D., Chair, Department of Geography James L. Blank, Ph.D. Dean, College of Arts and Science Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS.......................................................................................................... III LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................. V LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... VI PREFACE ............................................................................................................................ VII 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 1 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................... 3 2.1 GEOGRAPHY OF THE HISPANIOLA ........................................................................ 3 2.2 TROPICAL CYCLONES ............................................................................................ 6 2.3 VULNERABILITY................................................................................................... 10 2.3.1 SOCIAL VULNERABILITY ............................................................................... 11 2.3.2 PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY ........................................................................... 13 3 RESEARCH DESIGN .................................................................................................... 15 3.1 DATA COLLECTION ............................................................................................. 15 3.1.1 VULNERABILITY DATA ................................................................................. 18 3.1.1.1 SELECTION OF MEASURES OF SOCIAL AND PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY .. 18 3.1.1.2 DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLES ................................................................... 21 3.1.1.3 REDUCTION OF CORRELATED OR COLINEAR VARIABLES ........................ 30 3.1.2 TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENT DATA ............................................................... 31 3.1.3 TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMAN FATALITY DATA ............................................ 31 3.2 METHODS ........................................................................................................... 36 3.2.1 STORM EVENT SEVERITY SCORING ............................................................. 36 3.2.2 INCLUSION CRITERIA ................................................................................... 39 3.2.3 CORRELATING VULNERABILITY FACTORS AND STORM CLUSTER GROUPS TO HUMAN FATALITY IMPACT ......................................................................... 41 3.2.4 RESULTING CORRELATIONS TO HUMAN FATALITY DATA ........................... 41 3.2.5 ANALYZE CHANGES IN VULNERABILITY OVER TIME ................................... 42 4 RESULTS..................................................................................................................... 43 4.1 TROPICAL CYCLONE RESULTS ............................................................................. 43 4.2 VULNERABILITY RESULTS .................................................................................... 47 4.3 STATISTICAL RESULTS ......................................................................................... 52 5 DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................... 60 5.1 TROPICAL CYCLONE FINDINGS ........................................................................... 60 5.2 VULNERABILITY VARIABLES ................................................................................ 64 5.2.1 PHYSICAL VARIABLES .................................................................................. 64 5.2.1.1 SLOPE ....................................................................................................... 64 5.2.2 SOCIAL VARIABLES ...................................................................................... 66 5.2.2.1 POPULATION ........................................................................................... 66 5.2.2.2 POVERTY .................................................................................................. 68 5.2.2.3 PERCENT OF URBAN POPULATION ......................................................... 71 5.2.2.4 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ........................................................................... 73 5.2.2.5 PERCENT OF WOMEN IN THE WORKFORCE ............................................ 75 5.2.2.6 HOUSING MATERIALS: EARTHEN OR SCRAP MATERIALS........................ 77 iii 5.2.2.7 HOUSING MATERIALS: UPPER SCALE ...................................................... 79 5.2.2.8 HEALTH CENTERS PER 10,000 ................................................................. 81 5.3 WITH HURRICANE JEANNE ................................................................................. 82 5.3.1 PERCENT OF FOREST COVERAGE ................................................................ 83 5.3.2 DENSITY ....................................................................................................... 85 5.3.3 PERCENT OF POPULATION WITH VULNERABLE AGE .................................. 87 5.4 VULNERABILITY TO TROPICAL CYCLONE RELATED MORTALITIES TEMPORAL ANALYSIS 88 6 APPLICATIONS OF FINDINGS ..................................................................................... 91 6.1 DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONES .................................................................... 91 6.2 VULNERABILITY VARIABLE FINDINGS ................................................................. 92 6.2.1 PHYSICAL VARIABLE FINDINGS.................................................................... 93 6.2.2 SOCIAL VARIABLE FINDINGS ....................................................................... 93 7 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 97 7.1 SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 97 7.2 RESEARCH QUESTIONS ....................................................................................... 98 7.3 RELATIONSHIP TO LITERATURE ........................................................................ 100 7.4 ACTIONS FOR OFFICIALS ................................................................................... 101 7.5 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY ............................................................................ 103 7.6 FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS ............................................................................... 104 LITERATURE CITED .......................................................................................................... 105 APPENDIX A- HURRICANE MORTALITY SOURCES CITED ................................................. 112 SOCIAL AND PHYSICAL SOURCES CITED .......................................................................... 123 HURRICANE DATA ........................................................................................................... 124 iv List of Figures Figure 1 - Caribbean Basin .................................................................................................. 3 Figure 2 - Population Distribution on Hispaniola ................................................................ 4 Figure 3 - Topography of Hispaniola ................................................................................... 5 Figure 4 - Saffir Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity ........................................................ 6 Figure 5 - Caribbean Island Grouping ................................................................................. 7 Figure 6 - Region of Cyclogenesis ....................................................................................... 8 Figure 7 - Research Design ................................................................................................ 15 Figure 8 - Map of Hispaniola ............................................................................................. 17 Figure 9 - Statistical Analysis of Factors Found in Hazard Literature ............................... 20 Figure 10 - Hispaniola Land Use ........................................................................................ 22 Figure 11 - Hispaniola Slope .............................................................................................. 24 Figure 12 - Tropical Cyclone Mortality Map ..................................................................... 34 Figure 13 - Tropical Cyclone Mortality Rate Map ............................................................. 35 Figure 14 - Tropical Cyclones Impacting Hispaniola (1994-2012)..................................... 38 Figure 15 - Inclusion Criteria ............................................................................................. 40 Figure 16 - Storm Cluster Analysis ...................................................................................
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