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Downloaded 10/09/21 08:10 PM UTC During a Tropical Cyclone in the United States During Sualties Resulting from Lightning and Wind-Related the Twentieth Century

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Downloaded 10/09/21 08:10 PM UTC During a Tropical Cyclone in the United States During Sualties Resulting from Lightning and Wind-Related the Twentieth Century Loss of Life in the United States s Associated with Recent Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Edward N. Rappaport NOAA/NWS/Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida ABSTRACT A database was established for the period 1970-99 to assess the threat to life in the contiguous United States and adjacent coastal waters from Atlantic tropical cyclones. Freshwater floods caused more than one-half of the 600 U.S. deaths directly associated with tropical cyclones or their remnants during that 30-year period. More than three-quarters of the victims under age 13 died in rain-induced floods. Most fatalities occurred in inland counties. Storm surge losses were significantly (but perhaps only temporarily) less than in previous periods of comparable length. This paper pre- sents a statistical summary of the casualties, explores reasons for the losses, and reviews efforts to mitigate the threats. 1 . Introduction which can occur hundreds of miles inland, recently claimed up to thousands of lives in the Americas and Atlantic tropical cyclones have likely killed be- the Caribbean (e.g., 1998 Hurricanes1 Mitch in Hon- tween one-third and one-half a million people since duras and Nicaragua, and Georges in Hispaniola; 1994 the discovery of the New World, including around Hurricane Gordon in Haiti; 1993 Tropical Storm Bret 25 000 people in the United States after the American in Venezuela; 1988 Hurricane Gilbert in Mexico). Revolution (Rappaport and Fernandez-Partagas 1995). These losses extend a centuries-long trend—for the The largest U.S. disasters occurred after 1880 (e.g., in location of tropical cyclone-related casualties in the South Carolina and Georgia in 1881 and 1893; in Loui- Western Hemisphere to migrate with the population— siana in 1893; in Galveston, Texas, and its environs from casualties at sea through the 1700s, to the shore- in 1900; near Lake Okeechobee in 1928) and, in nearly line and coastal zone through the mid-1900s, to some every instance, storm surge was the predominant killer. areas well inland during the past 50 years (cf. An American Meteorological Society (AMS) policy Rappaport and Fernandez-Partagas 1997). Worldwide, statement adopted in October 1972 noted that the com- these events accrue to making floods the deadliest and bination of storm surge and accompanying waves was costliest natural phenomenon (Scofield and Margottini responsible for 90% of hurricane-related fatalities near 1999). the U.S. coast (AMS 1973). The vulnerable coastal The 1972 AMS policy statement noted that about population has grown since then, and the potential 500 lives had been lost in the United States due to remains high for storm surge to cause another large freshwater floods associated with the passage of six loss of life (Sheets 1990). tropical cyclones over the preceding 20-year period. Freshwater floods from rain present another great One of these storms was Hurricane Diane (1955), threat to life in tropical cyclones, and these effects which caused nearly 200 flood-related fatalities, likely occasionally exceed the coastal impact. Such floods, the largest death toll incurred from rain-induced floods Corresponding author address: Dr. Edward N. Rappaport, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, 11691 SW 17th St., Miami, FL 33165- 'The convention adopted for this paper is the common practice 2149. of referring to a tropical cyclone by the classification that describes E-mail: [email protected] its most intense phase (i.e., hurricane, tropical storm, or tropical In final form 10 March 2000. depression). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2065 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 08:10 PM UTC during a tropical cyclone in the United States during sualties resulting from lightning and wind-related the twentieth century. As recently as 1999, however, events (e.g., flying debris, collapsing structures), with inland floods claimed 50 lives in the United States a subset of statistics kept for losses in tornadoes. during Hurricane Floyd. A massive rescue mission is Deaths incurring "indirectly," from such factors as credited with saving another 1400 people from Floyd's heart attacks, housefires (e.g., from untended candles), flood waters [J. Cline, Raleigh, North Carolina, Na- electrocution from downed power lines, and vehicle tional Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office, 1999, accidents on wet roads, were not included in the personal communication]. database. Some tropical cyclones cause large losses both near For each tropical cyclone-related fatality, the study the coast and well inland. In the United States, Hurri- attempted to identify: cane Camille (1969) provides the most recent example of great magnitude, killing 256 people (Hebert et al. • name of cyclone, 1997); about half of these fatalities occurred at the • date and time of injury leading to death, coast, with the remainder from floods inland. Camille • cause of death, represented a rather singular meteorological event, it • county or parish of occurrence, being one of only two Atlantic hurricanes to strike the • strength of cyclone at landfall and at date and time United States at category-5 intensity on the Saffir- of fatal incident, Simpson Hurricane Scale (Simpson 1974) in more • age of deceased, than 150 years (e.g., Neumann et al. 1993; Fernandez- • gender of deceased, Partagas and Diaz 1996) (the other struck the Florida • source(s) of information, and Keys in 1935). Camille also marked a programmatic • supplemental notes. watershed. In its wake, national policies and proce- dures were revised and governmental responsibilities To do so, the study used information primarily found at the local, state, and national levels were clarified (see in newspapers and the following NWS publications: Simpson 1998). This paper documents the loss of life in the United 1) Natural Disaster Survey Reports, States attributed to Atlantic tropical cyclones during 2) Service Assessments, the 30-year post-Camille era from 1970 to 1999. 3) Preliminary Post-storm Reports from Weather Where possible, it identifies the causes and locations Forecast Offices (WFOs), of losses, with the objective of providing a resource 4) Preliminary Reports from the Tropical Prediction from which educational programs and tropical cyclone Center/National Hurricane Center (henceforth mitigation and preparedness activities can be devel- NHC), oped to diminish tropical cyclone hazards. 5) Storm Data, and 6) NHC annual hurricane season summaries and tropical system summaries (published in Monthly 2. Data Weather Review). This study established a database of information Not all the incidents cited could be completely or about fatalities 1) in the contiguous United States and unambiguously documented. For example, while the 2) at sea within 50 nautical miles of the U.S. coast primary publications stated that there were about 50 occurring in association with Atlantic tropical cy- deaths in Pennsylvania due to Hurricane Agnes in clones. These losses were associated with a subset of 1972, and that most victims drowned, they provided 65 of the roughly 300 Atlantic tropical (or subtropi- rather limited information about individual incidents. cal) storms and hurricanes and an uncertain number A search of secondary documentation continues for of tropical depressions (see Pasch et al. 1998, p. 1121) that storm and others. In another example, the NHC that formed during the study period. Preliminary Report, and the Natural Disaster Survey Only deaths occurring as a direct result of the Report and Monthly Weather Review articles that bor- forces of tropical cyclones or their remnants were cata- rowed from that report, attribute six deaths in Virginia loged. Such "direct" deaths include those persons who to Hurricane Hugo in 1989. Those publications pro- drowned in storm surge, rough seas, rip currents, vided no other information about those losses. Storm and freshwater floods. Direct deaths also include ca- Data shows no deaths during Hugo in Virginia. A 2066 Vol. 8 7, No. 9, September 2000 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 08:10 PM UTC search through several area newspapers and a maga- The relatively weak steering currents common to the zine published on the event did find reference to five eastern United States during the months of June, July, or six fatalities, but it is unclear whether those accounts and August likely factored into the large losses incurred refer to the same people counted in the Preliminary in these cyclones of the early part of the hurricane sea- Report. In fact, the fatalities tracked down are consid- son. Tropical cyclones embedded in weak flow move ered to be indirect losses. In cases like this, subjective relatively slowly. This can prolong their impact along and, it is hoped, judicious decisions were made about the coast and increase their potential to generate ex- the use of the data in this study. It is acknowledged cessive rain and life-threatening freshwater floods. that other researchers looking at the same data might The data do not show a straightforward relation- come to different conclusions about some individual ship between number of deaths and the intensity of a events, but the overall findings and inferences would tropical cyclone at landfall (or at the closest point of likely not be significantly altered. (For Hugo, the au- approach for the few deadly systems whose center's thor chose to exclude the six possible fatalities in Vir- remained offshore.) Tropical storms and category-1, ginia from the database pending possible discovery of -2, and -3 hurricanes each eventually contributed to information supporting the direct nature of those more than 100 deaths. losses.) The most severe weather usually covers a small area near the circulation center that diminishes in ex- tent when a tropical cyclone moves inland. For the 3. Results 1970-99 period, most of the deaths occurred appar- ently at the time when local wind speeds were below a. Overview the 64-kt threshold of hurricane intensity. In fact, large A total of 600 fatalities occurred in the contiguous loss of life occurred in several instances after a cyclone United States and its coastal waters associated with moved far enough inland that it contained little or no Atlantic tropical cyclones during 1970-99.
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