Asan Report Saudi Arabia in 2030 the Emergence of a New Leadership
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Asan Report Saudi Arabia in 2030 The Emergence of a New Leadership Joseph A. Kéchichian August 2019 About Author The Asan Institute for Policy Studies is an independent, non-partisan think tank Joseph A. Kéchichian with the mandate to undertake policy-relevant research to foster domestic, regional, and Dr. Joseph A. Kéchichian is Senior Fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research & international environments conducive to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, Islamic Studies in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the CEO of Kéchichian & Associates, East Asia, and the world-at-large. LLC, a consulting partnership that provides analysis on the Arabian/Persian Gulf region, specializing in the domestic and regional concerns of Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the Yemen. He held the post of Senior Writer with the Dubai-based Gulf News between 1 January 1995 and 31 August 2017, and served as the Honorary Consul of the Sultanate of Oman in Los The King Faisal Center for Research and Angeles, California, between 2006 and 2011. Islamic Studies Kéchichian received his doctorate in Foreign Affairs from the University of Virginia in 1985, where he also taught (1986-1988), and assumed the assistant deanship in Established in 1983, the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies (KFCRIS) international studies (1988-1989). Between 1990 and 1996, he labored at the Santa aims at supporting and developing research and studies that spread King Faisal’s vision Monica-based RAND Corporation as an Associate Political Scientist, and was a and expand knowledge on topics such as Islamic studies, politics, sociology and heritage. lecturer at the University of California in Los Angeles. The author of fifteen published books, his latest titles areThe Attempt to Uproot Sunni- Arab Influence: A Geo-Strategic Analysis of the Western, Israeli and Iranian Quest for Disclaimer Domination [A translation of Istihdaf Ahl al-Sunna (Targeting Sunnis), by Nabil Khalifé], Sussex Academic Press, January 2017; From Alliance to Union: Challenges Facing Gulf Cooperation Council States in the Twenty-First Century, Sussex, 2016; ‘Iffat Al Thunayan: An Views and opinions contained herein are the author’s and should not be attributed to Arabian Queen, Sussex, 2015; Legal and Political Reforms in Sa‘udi Arabia, Routledge, any officials affiliated with the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, 2013; as well as the forthcoming The Arab Nationalist Advisor: Yusuf Yassin of Sa‘udi any Saudi Arabian national, or the Government of Saudi Arabia. The author is solely Arabia. responsible for any errors that remain in the document. For practical purposes, and with minor exceptions, the research scope stops on 31 December 2018. Table of Contents Chapter 3. Regional and Global Trials 79 Acknowledgements 08 American Challenges 80 Ties with the United States of America: The Obama Terms 81 A Note on Transliteration 10 Ties with the United States of America: The Donald Trump Juggernaut 102 “Together We Prevail” 111 Preface 12 Relations After the Khashoggi Affair 114 Ties with Russia 119 Introduction 18 Ties with Asian Powers 124 The Islamic Republic of Pakistan 125 Methodology 20 The Republic of India 128 The People’s Republic of China 130 Chapter 1. Succession and Primogeniture 23 The Republic of Korea 136 King Salman Changes the Succession Mechanism 28 Ties with Europe 142 Muhammad bin Nayif as Heir Apparent 32 Relations with the United Kingdom 142 Muhammad bin Salman as Heir Apparent 33 Relations with France 145 Ties with the Arab World 149 Chapter 2. The Quest for Consolidation 41 Saudi Arabia and the Arab Spring 151 Internal Challenges 42 The GCC and the Qatar Crisis 153 Potential Remedies and Economic Transformations 49 The GCC Defense Challenge 160 The Vital Role of the Religious Establishment 54 The War for Yemen 161 A Necessary Update of the Kingdom’s Legal Conundrum 66 Ties with Iran and the Threat from the Revolution 163 Chapter 4. The Consequences of the Khashoggi Affair 173 List of Figures Disturbing Developments that Targeted Saudi Arabia 176 Objective Muhammad bin Salman 179 2 October 2018 181 Figures 1. King of Saudi Arabia: Salman bin ‘Abdul ‘Aziz Al Sa‘ud 30 The Khashoggi Assassination 188 Figures 2. Saudi Arabia’s Royal Family Tree 37 The Mysterious Khashoggi 200 Figures 3. Government Revenue and Expenditure in Saudi Arabia, 46 2010-2018 Chapter 5. Succession in Saudi Arabia after the Khashoggi Affair 203 Figures 4. Saudi Arabia Vision 2030: Key Goals and Themes 53 The Initial Aftermath 204 Figures 5. The Qa‘abah at the Grand Mosque in Makkah 58 Focus on Muhammad bin Salman Before 2 October 2018 206 Figures 6. Saudi Arabia Granted Women the Right to Drive 70 Fallout of Recent Events on Succession Matters 209 Figures 7. King Salman and President Obama 83 Sophisticated Speculations 212 Figures 8. Heir Apparent Muhammad bin Salman and President 105 Succession after the Khashoggi Affair 214 Trump The Evolving Aftermath 217 Figures 9. United States Arms Exports, 2018 112 Figures 10. Arms Imports by Saudi Arabia, 2018 112 Chapter 6. Succession and Rule 225 Figures 11. King Salman and President Xi Jinping 133 King Salman’s Rule and Leadership Preferences 227 Figures 12. Heir Apparent Muhammad bin Salman and President 138 Muhammad bin Salman Becoming King 232 Moon Jae-in Muhammad bin Salman Appoints Heir 240 Figures 13. Gulf Cooperation Council Summit, 2019 157 Speculation on Rule until 2030 242 Figures 14. Jamal Khashoggi 183 08 09 Acknowledgments At the outset, this report was intended to be a follow-up to my 2015 Succession Challenges Sa‘ud al-Sarhan, have encouraged me as well and I thank both doctors for their in the Arab Gulf Monarchies, which was published as an Asan Institute Report in unwavering support. It is rare to find a true center of research in the Arab World December 2015 [http://en.asaninst.org/contents/succession-challenges-in-the-arab- and I am delighted to be associated with one. gulf-monarchies/], and was well received in both its original English version as well as the Korean transliteration. Dramatic changes over the course of three short years in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia necessitated a rewrite of various sections of my original essay, and I sincerely thank the Asan Institute for Policy Studies for this expanded publication opportunity. As a frequent guest in Seoul, the Republic of Korea, I am privileged to be associated with one of the world’s leading think-tanks, and those who attend, and/or participate in, the annual Asan Plenum will vouch that it is one of the most meaningful such assemblies anywhere. My sincere appreciation goes to Dr. Ji-Hyang Jang, a Senior Fellow at Asan as well as the Director of its Middle East and North Africa Center, for shepherding the first two drafts of the report through the vetting process. Dr. Jang is one of those rare Asian colleagues who know the Muslim World—where she travels frequently—and can separate the wheat from the chaff. It is always a pleasure to exchange notes with this premier researcher. Her research associate, Ahrum Yoo, deserves special accolades too as she took the draft manuscripts and navigated them through their various editing stages. Mercifully, Ahrum caught several key errors, for which she has my gratitude. Sang-hwa Hong, a research associate, and Ji-eun Song, a program officer, proved tireless as well in various production steps, and I am obliged for their assistance. In Riyadh, I extend my sincere thanks to HRH Prince Turki al-Faisal, who has read the manuscript and offered his legendary comments—without changing anything. Prince Turki is that exceptional member of the ruling family who encourages all of us working at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies to rise above short-term insularities and delve in pure academic investigations. His Director of Research, Prince Abdullah bin Khalid Al Sa‘ud and the KFCRIS Secretary-General, 10 11 A Note on Transliteration This study follows the same transliteration methodologies adopted in all of my previous Al al-Shaykh, or “House of the Shaykh,” as his descendants are called. Yet, I use ‘Abdallah academic publications, based on a modified version of the Library of Congress (LC) rather than ‘Abdullah throughout this text because it comes as close as possible to transliteration system. Although rendering Arabic words and names into English is Library of Congress and International Journal of Middle East Studies protocols, and it is nearly impossible, I rely on LC protocols, along with the style used by the International a more accurate transliteration from the Arabic, instead of from the Urdu used in Journal of Middle East Studies (IJMES) to offer solid versions. For practical purposes, all Pakistan, Afghanistan and elsewhere. diacritical marks for long vowels and velarized consonants are eliminated, except for the hamza (’) and the ayn (‘). Moreover, variations in common names, including the Arabic speakers will know the correct references and while special care was devoted commonly rendered Mohammed or Riad in English, are transliterated as Muhammad to standardize the spellings of transliterated words, there are—inevitably—a few and Riyadh. Mecca, still used in some sources, is dropped for the more accurate Makkah, inconsistencies that, I trust, readers will understand and forgive any linguistic transgressions. which is also the official adaptation. All quotations that referred to specific spellings were not tampered with, including “Sheik” or “Shaikh” instead of the correct transliteration of Shaykh—according to LC and IJMES protocols. In modern Arabic, even when using standard pronunciation, the feminine -ah is often ignored, with the h usually silent and not recorded. Consequently, we see it as -a, like in fatwa, Shi‘a, Shari‘a or even ‘Ulama.