Special Issue INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HUMANITIES AND March 2016 CULTURAL STUDIES ISSN 2356-5926

Seismic hazard zoning of Hamadan Town for urban development by using remote sensing and GIS

Mohammad Ahmadi Department of Urban Planning, College of Arts and Architecture, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, [email protected]

Mohammad Rahmani Faculty Member, Department of Urban Planning, College of Arts and Architecture, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran Corresponding Author: [email protected]

Abstract

In the nature of Iran, earthquake is known as the most destructive factors threatening the human life. Historical reviews showed that sometimes, large areas of Iran had been destroyed by the natural disaster and many casualties and financial damages had been left. Lack of proper application of the techniques to deal with the earthquake, has put the country at the risk of acute vulnerability. In this study, it is tried to do the zoning of urban development based on the earthquake hazard through fuzzy logic model by considering the indicators such as accessibility, slope, aspect, geology and distance from fault lines and the use of remote sensing and GIS. The satellite images (2015) were used in this study, studied area was classified to 7 classes (developed lands, brown lands, irrigation lands, agriculture lands, rocky land, urban green spaces and the lands related to cultural heritage) in term of land cover. To define the fuzzy membership pf variables, linear function was used with respect to the linear nature of the variables (0 to 1). Comparison in the multivariate regression model showed that the linear regression with the correlation coefficient of 0.97 between the dependent variable (zoning of urban development) and independent variables (slope, aspect, accessibility, geology and distance from fault lines) had the best coefficient for doing the zoning of urban development. The results showed that in recent years, Hamadan Town has been further developed to the north and northeast. Its development to the south was limited due to the mountains. The north and northeast parts of the city are the best places for the development of Hamadan Town in the coming years due to the lower altitudes and lower slopes.

Keywords: town, remote sensing, GIS, urban development, earthquake, zoning.

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Introduction: Town as a settlement system needs to be planned in a way that its inner potential capabilities will be actualized and also, the spatial organization of its land uses will be balanced and well- proportioned to continue its life and improve it qualitatively and quantitatively. Urban system like other systems can continue its dynamic life in the context of a desired plan in normal circumstances, but, the occurrence of crisis and unforeseen conditions would mean the entropy in the life of this system (J.d.Kartez, 1987, p.489). In the critical conditions, complex natural systems adapt themselves with them and pass them, while, the simple systems are disrupted and damaged. Adaptiveness with critical conditions can be internal or external. Socio-economic development has direct relationships with spatial-local organization and structure that, in turn, needs proper urban planning and thus, it is clear that urban planning with regard to the earthquake varies in terms of the socio-economic development level of the countries (Ibid.p.487). The direct and immediate risk of earthquake to human life is due to the danger of earthquake that threatens the built environment. So, the vulnerability of the built environment largely make the immediately vulnerability of human life conditional. In terms of socio-economic development, retrofitting the built environment; along with balanced distribution of individuals and activities in space in a manner that is proportional to the vulnerability and risk probability, provides the best conditions to minimize the damages and casualties. On the other hand, such situation means to reduce the losses and material damages to achieve such a level of development that the above conditions are fulfilled. Those measures must be taken in the context of urban planning that make the system flexible as much as possible and reduce its vulnerability (UNDRO: 1991.p.95). The basic mechanisms which are in the ground and cause the earthquake, have been not yet understood fully and different theories have been proposed that are contradicting each other. But, it is obvious that the causes of the earthquake are closely related to the tectonic developments of the earth. So, sudden shakes and vibrations caused bythe tectonic developments of the earth are called earthquake (Hojjatollah, 1990: 65). One of the slope instability which causes many financial damages and casualties to the socioeconomic and environmental systems yearly is landslide. Currently, tens of landslides occur in different parts of the country yearly and threaten many residential areas, roads and facilities. The provinces of Gilan, Mazandaran, , Fars, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Lorestan and are the most important areas of landslides in the country. High volume of damages and casualties caused by the landslides because of the development of human activities in recent years, makes the predication and control of this destructive phenomenon complicated and has put it as a priority in many countries. For this reason, how to evaluate the risk of landslide and different methods of evaluation have been studied in multiple researches. In most studies, landslide has been considered as the synonym of mass movements (Amirahmadi et al., 2010).

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Theoretical basics: Factor affecting the development of the city: Natural factors: The topography, as the restriction, sometimes stop or limit the development of the city. For example, because of the mountains on both sides, the city will expand along the way or the river in the linearly. Sometimes, it provides useful natural conditions for varied urban developments with impressive landscapes, especially for residential area (Rahnamaei, 1991: 75). The heights of 900 to 1200 m, and in some conditions up to 1500m according to the average height of Iran plateau and their geographical positions, are the best places for locating the cities in Iran (Nazarian, 2000: 118).

Economic factors: Economic activities are the causer of employment and attract a lot of people to these centers. So, it can be said that the economy of a city is an effective factor for the development of lands. Studying on the economy of the city will have very basic and important practical use in analyzing and reviewing land-use planning (Shieh, 2010: 195). The development of the city is closely related to the employment, income and how this income earned in town, as far as the experts are concerned, these are more important than other factors in the emergence and development and prosperity of the cities (Rahmani, 2013:35). In the past and also, in recent centuries, locating the centers of government in the cities such as , , , , Tehran and other major cities has followed the rule and many of these centers have been located in the surrounding and lowlands of Khozestan plains, the coast of Caspian sea and foothill plains adjacent to the mountains (Ghafari Gilandeh, 2001:2) Social factors: Social characteristics are the social status of the different neighborhoods of the city. Cultural, living, residential, behavioral, ethnic, racial, religious characteristics and other causes are the measures to evaluate the segregation of the different groups living in the town and create social stratification that in municipal decision, it determines the limitation of the activities and how to deal with them. Also, the development of the city is closely related to the urban population growth and in this relationship, natural increase of urban population, the rate of net migration to town, transfer of the rural population construction to town and construction of urban population are more important factors. Also, immigration, as one of the political, economic and social reasons which, in turn, has a major impact on creating new socioeconomic structures, plays an important role in the physical development of the cities (Khalili Iraqi, 1987:1-6). Political factors: The roles of governments and their political and economic decisions, depending on whether the political and social affairs are centralized or not, have different external effects. Under capitalism, the role of governments has not been significant in the development of the cities but,

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in the planned economy, they have the most important role. They determine the economic policies and use the capital through determined ways. Thus, they prevent the development of large cities. In poor areas, they pay more salaries and prioritize the development of small and medium cities and investing in them (Shakuie, 2006: 339).

Definition of earthquake: The basic mechanisms which are in the ground and cause the earthquake, have been not yet understood fully and different theories have been proposed that are contradicting each other. But, it is obvious that the causes of the earthquake are closely related to the tectonic developments of the earth. So, sudden shakes and vibrations caused by the tectonic developments of the earth are called earthquake (Hojjatollah, 1990: 65). The earthquake is intense moves and vibrations of the part of the Earth’s crust with all materials and structures on it due to the moves of folds, volcano and/or stresses of the Earth’s crust (Biroudian, 2006). Literature review: National Research Council of Italy performed the seismic hazard zoning in a study by the use of Geographical Information System (GIS). In this study, effective notes such as landslide and secondary effects have been considered. Using a physical model for slope and statistical methods and independent variables such as geology, geomorphology, hydrology and seismic parameters were ultimately displayed as a risk factor map (Fashivli et al., 1995). In this study, different layers such as the average age of the buildings, the main faults, the horizontal ground acceleration for the surface and the bedrock were used and the zoning map has been extracted (King, 1995). In another study, providing seismic hazard for a metropolis and its surrounding areas was done by using geographical information system database in Japan. In this research, seismic hazards include earth moving, landslide and slope failure for Tokyo City. Each of these factors were weighted based on the table and prepared potential maps of them were displayed as a final map (Matso Okavo, 1995). Karam (2004) identified the landslides occurred in Sar Khun village, Ardal County, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province by the interpretation of satellite image and surveying and determined the potential landslides in GIS by using 10 criteria leading to the landslide (including slope, aspect, land cover, distance from major faults, index of greenness, density of vegetation, annual rainfall, geology, distance from the main roads and distance from rivers) and evaluated it by weighted linear combination model and modelled the landslide hazard zoning map for the Sar Khun watershed quantitatively. The fuzzy method was used to standardize the data and the criteria were weighted by AHP method. The results of zoning showed that 38% of the lands of studied area have high potential for the occurrence of landslide. Shadfar et al. (2005) had done the landslide hazard zoning of Chalakrud watershed in Tonekabon City by AHP and considering the factors such as slope, aspect, elevation, faults, stream network, roads and geology and after comparing the prepared model with the distribution map of

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landslides, they stated that this approach provides the better results than other zoning methods because of the use of a large number of factors. Pourqassemi et al. (2009) had evaluated the risk of landslide in a part of Haraz watershed by fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method. They used the factors of slope, aspect, elevation, geology, land use, distance from faults, streams and roads as the factors leading to the landslide hazard. The results showed that 29.42% of the lands in the studied area have very high potential, 32.19% of them have high potential, 30.36% of them have moderate potential and 8.04 % of them have low potential. Sasanpour et al. (2011) had analyzed the urban land uses in the landslide areas of Farahzad valley river basin with the aim of analyzing the urban development in terms of geomorphology and also, investigating the vulnerability caused by the moves of landslide by multi-criteria weighted model. The final map showed that the geomorphologic and geologic conditions of steep slopes were not considered in urban development of Tehran. Ghanavati (2011) had performed the zoning of Jajrood basin by AHP. He had considered the factors of slope, aspect, digital elevation model, geology, distance from faults and precipitation as the factors leading to the landslide hazard. The results showed that more than 62% of the area of Jajrood basin is located in the zone of high and very high risk of landslides. Fatemi Oghda et al. (2005) had selected the factors leading to the landslide hazard according to the geomorphologic properties of Rudbar County and then, evaluated and performed the landslide hazard zoning in Rudbar County by fuzzy logic model and also, recommended the fuzzy method due to its high accuracy. Piriaii (1385), in his study on the mass movement in the Jajrood basin by logistic regression and GIS, has investigated the factors leading to the mass movements and provided the landslide hazard zoning map. Pourghazi et al. (2007) have investigated the rock-fall hazard along Road 59 (Chalous Road) (Pol-e Zanguleh, Marzanabad) by Cone-Fall Theory. They have divided the studied area to three parts for the better and more accurate evaluation of rock-fall hazard along the Road 59 and used 47 data collection station along the mentioned road and also, 53 recorded points of rock-falls along the road were considered as control points. For two critical angles of 40 and 45, they provided the landslide hazard zoning map. The results showed that the potential of rock-fall is directly related to morphology and the steepness of rocky slope. Matakan et al. (2009) had done the landslide hazard zoning in Lajimrud watershed by using the parameters of geology, soil science, elevation, aspect, slope, distance from river, distance from road, and distance from faults, vegetation and land use. The weights of effective parameters were calculated to extract the fuzzy membership function by relative frequency of landslide hazard. In this study, it was found that fuzzy gamma model and fuzzy ordered weighted average model have the lowest variability and standard deviations than other models in the modeling.

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Methodology: Relative position: Hamadan Town is the capital of and located in the center district of Hamadan City. In terms of geographical location, it is almost located in the center of Hamadan province and at 48 31’ E and 34 48’ N and at the altitude of 1813 m (Hamadan gentrification and regeneration planning of worn-out textures). Map 1 shows the political location of Hamadan Town in Iran.

Map1. Political location of Hamadan Town in Iran Source: National Cartographic Center of Iran Methods: This study is an applied research that the researcher has studied the physical conditions and the development of the town by direct and indirect observation and analysis of satellite images and aerial images, expressed the topography and the forms of physical development descriptively and then, analyzed the subject of the study by the knowledge of remote sensing. The data was gathered by topography map of Hamadan Town with scale of 1:25000, geology map, satellite images of Hamadan Town from 2013 to 2015 and comprehensive and action plans. Satellite images: There are two supervised and unsupervised classification methods to reclassify satellite images. In supervised classification method, the images are reclassified into different classes by field

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recognition of the region. In unsupervised classification method, the images are reclassified into different classes by multi-band images (Mirmohammad Sadeghi, 2012: 137). In this study, band combination method developed by the Geological Survey of America, was used. In this study, the satellite image received on 2015.06.16 was used, this image belongs to the sensor of “LANDSAT-8”. For band combination of used satellite images, the bands of 2,7 and 8 were used to identify urban lands. Table 4-4 and Figure 2 indicate the specification sand images used in this study. Year Name sensor Manufacturer Temporal Spatial Radiometric solution solution solution 2015.06.16 Landsat-8 OLI- America 16 30m 8 TIRS Table 4-4. Specifications of the sensor of LANDSAT-8 Source: National Cartographic Center, 2014

Figure2. Specifications and images used in this study. Source: National Cartographic Center, 2014

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Variables: In this study, the variable of the zoning of urban development is a dependent variable and the variables of access network, slope, aspect, geology and distance from the fault lines are dependent variable that the impact of each of them on the zoning of urban development are investigated in the following. In this study, the data was prepared in the form of shape files by National Cartographic Center. Some physical data such as slope and aspect was created by the use of digital elevation model layer. In this study, the data of geology and fault lines was prepared in the form of shape files and also, status map was used to create access network map, finally, all data was converted to raster data with cell size of 30* 30. Calculating the weights of indicators: To determine the weight of each of the variables affecting the urban development of Hamadan Town, a questionnaire was designed and filled out by experts. So, the experts defined their views on each of the variables through linguistic variables such as very low, low, medium, high and very high. After collecting the questionnaires, since the responses were in the form of 5 qualitative options, they are converted to quantitative options by determining a fuzzy triangular number to each of them (Figure1).

Figure1. Membership functions for linguistic expressions Then, the fuzzy numbers were converted to certain numbers by the use of fuzzy logic operators and the formula of Minkowsky(1) (Sanayei ; 2010:26).

Formula of Minkowsky

Geometric mean of triangular numbers was calculated by Eq. (2) and then, they were converted to fuzzy certain numbers by formula of Minkowesky.

Eq. (2)

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Fuzzy Logic Model: Lotfi Asgar Zader, professor at the University of California, Berkeley, America, introduced the fuzzy theory in 1965 that it has been developed up to now. It is used to act in the conditions of uncertainty. In fact, fuzzy thinking is a spectral process between two absolute options and considered as a relative thing. Black and white provide a gray range in a buffer between themselves and in this sense, fuzziness is being gray. In different sciences, there are many phenomena which are based on binary system (zero and one) that have roots in Aristotelian thinking. According to this logic, everything is only subjected to a fixed rule and as its result, a thing is true or false. While in contrast to Aristotelian thinking, Buddhist thinking believes that one thing may be true and false and anything is true with a degree and false with a degree, so, being true is relative. This is an initial bed of fuzzy thinking (Taghvaii, 2010).A fuzzy set is a set of members which belong to the set with a degree. This degree is called Degree of Membership. Fuzzy set is a family of definitive or normal (continuum) sets. In particular, it can be said that the operation is based on the Extension principle. According to this principle, possibility of the extension of every algebraic operation defined for definitive sets, is also provided in fuzzy sets (Karamali, 2008: 10). The most common fuzzy logic operators: The simplest and most common mathematical relationships of fuzzy operators are: Fuzzy union operator (f-OR): It considers the maximum degree of membership of the pixels in combining the maps to create final maps and ignores the high weights of the pixels completely. This operator uses the maximum function in combination and is defined as Eq. (1). Eq. (1):

If this operator is used, the greater of the two degrees of membership will be selected. Fuzzy intersection operator (f-AND): In the combination of the maps, the minimum degree of membership of the pixels is considered as the final degree of membership for final map. So, a very optimistic output is obtained. This operator uses the minimum function in overlapping and is defined as Eq.(2). Eq.(2):

In the cases that the variables are independent or it is necessary to use two or more parts of the evidences to prove the hypothesis, using this operator (f-AND) is appropriate. Fuzzy algebraic multiplication: It leads a decrease in the final degree of membership and its result is a very small weight assigned to each position. If a lot of maps are input, this number will tend to zero. Fuzzy membership function is defined as Eq. (3).

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Eq. (3):

Where 1 is a fuzzy membership function for ith map, i=1,2,…,n shows the number of combined maps. Fuzzy algebraic sum: Final degree of membership of the pixels is enlarged in output map. If a lot of maps are input, this number will tend to one. Due to the enlargement of weights, the final positions of the effect of this operator are increasing. This operator is defined as Eq.(4).

Eq.(4):

In this Eq., the result is always the largest degree of membership and therefore, due to the increasing effect of fuzzy algebraic sum, we have the highest risk. Fuzzy gamma operator: it is a general state of fuzzy sum and multiplication operators. With selecting proper value of gamma, output values are the result of the inflexible compatibility between increasing and decreasing trends two fuzzy sum and multiplication operators (Karimi, 2009: 99). It di defined as Eq.(5). Eq.(5):

Where y is a parameter specified between zero and one. If y is equal to one, a combination is fuzzy algebraic sum and if it is equal to zero, the combination is fuzzy algebraic multiplication (Bonham-Carter, G. F. 1991). Analysis of findings: Seismic hazard zoning of urban development: Fuzzy logic: First step, firstly, the Euclidean distances were estimated for the variables of access network and distance from fault lines by the tool of Distance in Spatial Analyst. In this step, all used layers (slope, aspect, geology, population density, distance from fault lines and satellite images) were exported as the pixels with cell size of 30*30. Second step, The degrees of membership were used for the variable in Arc gis software by the tool of fuzzy membership. To determine the degree of membership, there are different methods such as Gaussian and linear methods. In this study, given the linear nature (0 to 1) of the

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parameters, the linear method was used. Map 3 shows the membership function used for each of the variables.

Map3. Membership function used for each of the variables. Source: Author, 2015

Third step, After determining the degree of membership, the weight of each of the layers was multiplied to its degree of membership by the tool of Raster Calculator and finally, the weighted layer of each of the variables was obtained. Map 4 indicates the weight used for each of the variables.

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Map 4. The weight used for each of the layers Source: Author, 2015

Final step, in this step, fuzzy overlapping was done. In previous steps, the variables were become fuzzy and weighted, in this step, they were overlapped. There were five operators for this step. In this study, gamma operator with the value of 0.9 was used. Map 5 shows the map of seismic hazard zoning of urban development created by fuzzy logic model.

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Map 5.Seismic hazard zoning of urban development created by fuzzy logic model. Source: Author, 2015

Conclusion: In this study with the aim of seismic hazard zoning of urban development of Hamadan Town, at first, the most important factor leading to the occurrence of the earthquake were identified and then, the data layers were created in GIS software. These factors were slope, access network, aspect, geology, distance from fault lines and the image of remote sensing classification. In this study, the satellite images of Hamadan Town (2015) were used which belonged to the sensor of “LANDSAT-8”. To determine the number of the classes of land cover on the satellite images, 100 points were surveyed in the limitation of Hamadan Town by GPS device and field study. These points were used to specify the terrain. According to the experts, the studied area was classified to 7 classes (developed lands, brown lands, irrigation lands, agriculture lands, rocky land, urban green spaces and the lands related to cultural heritage).

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According to the fault lines surrounding Hamadan Town, the nearest main fault is located in 47.483 km to Hamadan Town that doesn’t threaten the town to develop. According to the distribution of fault lines, the minor faults are located in the nearer distances to the limitation of town. The nearest seismic point to the limitation of Hamadan Town is located in the distance of 21.18 km to the East of Hamadan Town. Hamadan Town’s population was equal to 525791 persons in 2011. Its population growth rate was about 1.6 in the period of 2006-2011. In the case of the continuation of this rate, the population will be equal to more than 619994 persons in 2021. So, in 2021 with the population of 929991 persons, the area of town will be equal to 6846.42 hectares. Given the demographic changes in Hamadan Town, its area will become 11023.83, 15201.34 and 19378.8 hectares in 2031, 2041 and 2051, respectively. Hamadan Town has been developed towards the North and Northeast in recent years because of the mountains in the south of the Town that limited the development of the town.The north and northeast parts of the city are the best places for the development of Hamadan Town in the coming years due to the lower altitudes and lower slopes. Two fuzzy logic and Boolean models were used for development zoning of the town. To do this, first, the classes were weighted by experts and then, they were weighted and being fuzzy by GIS software. Finally, after cell computing and combining the classes, the best places were selected for the development of Hamadan Town for coming years. To investigate the correlation coefficient between dependent and independent variables, multiple regression was used, the results showed that the linear regression with the coefficient of 0.97 has the maximum correlation between the dependent and independent variables.

Suggestions: It is suggested: - In the future development of the city, the land uses with facilities and buildings will be built on a slope of less than 9% and the lands with the slope more than 9% will be assigned for open and green spaces. - The city and its buildings will be developed in compliance with the standards in terms of street width, structural stability of buildings and the size of residential lots to reduce the vulnerability to possible natural disasters. - In preparing urban development plans (master and action plans), land uses and streets will be proposed according to zoning maps. - To provide smart databases about people, buildings, facilities and utilities which are at the risk by the use of GIS. - To establish and locate the important public land uses such as clinics, hospitals, educational and administrative land uses which are used more in crisis according to hierarchical physical urban system to serve all parts of the urban texture during the crisis. - To plan and establish open spaces separately and use these spaces as active urban spaces before the occurrence earthquake and also, use the safe urban spaces during the occurrence of earthquake.

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- To provide the vulnerable areas within the limitation of the city - To provide comprehensive passive defense plan for city and consider passive defense principles in safety plan and other action plans. - To create open spaces in old texture and peripheral areas to aid to these areas in times of crisis. - To use the nonagricultural and non-horticultural for urban development. Given the mountains in the south of the city, developing the city towards the North and Northeast is appropriate due to the brown lands and proper slopes. - To use the buffer spaces surrounding the faults to build the parks and green spaces and other land uses which have no buildings to reduce the casualties and damages in special cases and in time of earthquake. - For the development of the city, to grant special privileges to the owners of gardens that they don’t change the gardens to other land uses for their profit-seeking purposes and also, to preserve the national capital as a valuable heritage for future generations.

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