managementstrategies are questionable Kosi: Rising Waters, Dynamic . and our preparednessto facesuch events is far too inadequate. Channels and Human Disasters Furthet therehas been a paradigmshift in flood managementglobally from "river control" primarily involving an engineering a local RAJIV SINHA approachaddressing the "effect''at scaleto "river management''whichempha- The recentKosi floods have proved iversplay a critical role in human sisesan integratedapproach at a crossover addressesthe cause rather than onceagain that inadequatecontrol societyand historyas they are the ofscalesand majorsource of freshwater, trans- the effect. Even though India is a country beenresponsible measureshave portation, and resources.However, this drained by several large rivers, our river for the recurringdisasters. Typically relationshipis often "troubled" because managementsffategies are rather rudi- flood controland riverine studies changes in river discharge (floods or mentaryand our plannersareyetto embrace suchas satellite-based focuson hydrologicalinformation, droughts)or positioncan play havocwith modemapproaches permanentsettlements. Such changes can monitoring and multi-criteria decision whereasa muchmore integrated be causedby both natural forcing as well supportsystem. This situationneeds to be approachthat paysattention to as human interventionsor a combination correctedto savea large populationfrom specificmorphological factors is of both. Natural processesmay include repeatedmiseries of floodsyear after year. required.Since Kosi is a dynamic short-termchanges in sediment load, water volume or, long-term changesin The Kosi: ADynamic SYstem river with a uniquemorphology relativesea level or climatechange. Human The Kosiriver in north Bihar plains,eastem andbecause it is a river which has interventionscould impact in changesin India is a major rributary to the Gangariver alwayscarried high sedimentloads, sedimentload or run-off through water systemand has long been considered as a problematic due to recurrent and floodmanagement strategies resourcemanagement schemes such as river dams,barrages and embankments.Human extensiveflooding and frequentchanges must be attunedto suchspecific alterationsof river systemscan have many in its course.The gently slopingalluvial parametersof the river, besides importantconsequences primarily because surfaceof the Kosihas beendescribed as 'lmegafan" beingmuch more than mere"river river systemsare dynamic and highly "inland delta", "cone" and by researdtersowing primarily to build- control"through embankments. integratedsystems and any changein any various part of the river can easilypropagate and ing up of a very largepositive topography affectthe whole system.The recentflood causedby depositionof enormousquantity RajivSinha ([email protected]) is with the in the Kosi is certainlyone of the biggest of sedimentscarried by the riverwhich it is Departmentof Civil Engineering,Indian "human" disastersin recentyears and it unableto transport.During the last two Kanpur. Instituteof Technology, hassent out a strongsignal that our flood centuries,for which recordsare available,

42 NovEMBBRr5, zooS EIE Economic&PoliticalWEEKLY the Kosiriver hashad a preferentiallywest- (downcutting)in river systems.The well- plains such as the Baghmatiand Burhi ward movementby nearly r5o kilometres known balancemodel suggests that hydro- Gandak respectivelyshow even higher acrossits fan surface.Many of the old logical (stream power) and sediment sedimentyields and this indicates that the coursesof the river are clearlydiscernible transport characteristics(sediment supply) sedimentsare remobilisedvigorously by on satelliteimages and someof themcarry are two main fluvial parametersaffecting the smallerrivers. Lower sedimentyields waterduring monsoon periods. These move- the aggradation-degradationbehaviour of of the rivers draining the up plains is mentshave been described as autocydic and the river systems (Figure r). Specific clearly a function of, apart from the dis- stochastic,typical in most of the alluvial streampower, defined as (y.Q.s,/w),where tancefrom the sourceareas, difference in fansacross the world. Howeve4the average y is the specificweight of water,Q is dis- Figure1 is the channel RiverAggradation0rDegradation lsControlled bythe'Balance' frequencyof movementof z4 yearsfor the charge,s is the slopeand w betweenStream Power (Power toErode and Transport Sediments) Kosiis amongthe lowestin the world com- width, can be consideredto representthe andSediment Supply (Function ofDelivery from the Mountain5) pared r,4ooyears for theMississippi river sum total of hydrologicalparameters' It //L------J -\ to /Degradation Aggradation) In most cases,the movementinvolves a mustbe emphasisedthat a right combina- -\--l '/' suddenchange in course(called "avulsion") tion of thesethree parameterswould give originatingfrom a nodalpoint. rise to the requisitespecific stream Power produceincised f-- -td- *_-ll The dynamicnature of the Kosiriver has to erodethe river bedand aggradeor d lorade?-tl | | I -A riversdraining attractedattenrion for over a centuryand a channels.Research on the Stream power varietyof medranismshave been suggested: the Ganga plains at Indian Institute of /\ (a) It Technology(II'r) Kanpurby our grouphas / )eolmenr Tectonictilting and nodal avulsions: / supply hasbeen suggested that the entire plains shownthat the specificstream power of Ganga of north Bihar is subsidingover a geologi- the rivers draining the western Figure2 cal time period and this has createda plains (wcn) rivers (e g, Gangaat Haridwar, ASignificant Variability lsObserved inStream Powerand Sediment Ganga Yamunaat Supplyofthe Rivers Draining theWestern and Eastern westward tilt. Repeatedearthquakes in Kanpur and Allahabad and Plains.The Plains ofNorth Bihar Have Characteristically Low this regionare evidenceof activetectonic Delhi) is significantlyhigher(4o-4g w/m'?) StreamPower and High Sediment Supplyand therefore aHighly RegimelsCharacteristics ofthis Region than that of the easternGanga plains (ncn) Aggradational movementsin the area. 0 s 10 ls 2025 30 35 4045 (b) Dischargepeakedness and autocyclic rivers (e g, Kosi,Gandak, Baghmati, and Ganga(Garh) (6-zo w/mz). Our analysis processes:The Kosi river has extremely Kamla-Balan) Ganga(Haridwar) variable discharge(s-ro times between also showsthat for comparablevalues of Ganga(Kanpu0 the average non-monsoonaland mon- dischargeand width ofchannelsin ecp and E Yamuna{Allahabad) g soonaldischarge) and this createschannel wcn, slopevalues are distinctly different. ='Ganoa(Patna) E Yamuna(Delhi) instability and bank erosion.An added This happensbecause as a river gets 3 SGhaohra(Zalimnaqad of the bigger,the increasein dischargeis largely factor is the high sedimentload napti partly by increasein channel fi river dueto which the bed of the river has or cancelled Kosi{Baltara) = (the width and henceslope becomes the con- been continuouslyaggrading build-up Kosi{Kufsela) of the river bedby depositof sediment). trolling factorfor specificstream Power' Baghmati{Dheng) Most of the channelmovements of the Wehave also examined the dataon sed- Baghmati(Hayaghat) Kosialso cause extensive flooding, the fan iment yield of different rivers of the ecp I West6angaplains (Figure z) which indicatesthat surfacebeing very gentlysloping and the and wcp A Raptichaghrasystem supply from the upstream channelsbeing shallow. Ifthe river channel the sediment + EastGangapldins hasaggraded enough, the monsoon floods Himalayancatchment is variablefromwest may causepreferential drainage into any (UttarPradesh plains) to east(Bihar plains). of the old, leastaggraded lowest courses The Ganga (at Haridwar) and Yamuna ++ andcan get stabilised. In an influentialpa- (Allahabad)are characterisedby low ++ per by Neil Wellsat Kent StateUniversity, sediment yield of rso-3soy'kn'zlyl while (Barakshetra) Gandak usa (Wells r9B7),it was noted that the Kosi and Clriveni) a 0 Kosishould shift west,one watershed at a rivers are characterisedby much higher 0 200 400 600 Dfainagebasinarea {sqkm) time, till it meetsanother river moving sedimentyield of l,5oo-2,ooot/km2/yr. east or its movementis restricteddue to Similarly,the Ramgangariver in the wcP rainfall in their catchmentsand fluvial topographicbarrier - this would causethe has much lesssediment yield in compari- processesoperating in the plains.Further, catch- eastwardsweep over its fan. sonto the Baghmatiand Kamla-Balanriv- activetectonics in the mountainous ersin the rce. High sedimentyields of the ment area directly affects the erosion WhyDo Rivers Aggrade mountain-fedrivers in Bihar plains are rates and sedimentproduction. A higher or Degrade? primarily attributed to the excePtionally uplift rate would eventuallymean availa- Beforegoing any further, it may be prudent high topographicreliefin their sourceareas bility of a larger amountof sedimentsin to examine the factors responsiblefor and high rainfall in their catchments.The the catchmentwhich would ultimatelybe plains. aggradation (silting) and degradation foothills- and plains-fedrivers of Bihar broughtdown by the riversinto the 43 Economic&Politicalwrsxrv Em NoVEMBER15, 2oo8 BIHARFLOODS Tectonicallystable catchments would con- the embankmentstrategy and G F Hall, addition, several adverseeffects of the tribute significantly less quantities of chief engineernoted that "embankments Kosiproject have been noted, viz, drainage sedimentto the river systems.Similar to merelytransferred trouble from one area congestionand waterlogging, rise ofriver the rainfall distribution,spatial variation to anotherand that they give rise to false bed level,and reductionin cropproduc- in the uplift rate along an east-west senseof security".A later investigationby tivity due to reduced silt flux on the transecthas also been observed. Research C C Inglis alsohighlighted that the cause floodplains.These issues have been dis- by severalworkers has shown that the of movementof the Kosiriver is the build- cussedin great detail in a recentbook easternparts of the Himalayaare charac- ing up of the submontaneousdelta (fan) titled Trapped!Between the Devil ond terisedby higheruplift rate (r5-zomm,/yr) due to very large influx of sandfrom the DeepWaters (Mishra zoo8) and have also alongthe mountainfront in Nepal,based hinterlandand suggesteddetailed investi been reported in the pages of rrw on the analysisof deformationof terraces gations in terms of river discharge,silt (MishrazooS). The bottom line however alongBaghmati river system. load,ground elevations and subsoilwater is that flooding problems have been The present models on Himalayan levels before finalising any scheme.No furtheraggravated by the constructionof seismotectonicspredict westward decrease suchinvestigations ever followed and no embankments on both sides and the in uplift rate alongthe Himalayanfront in definitive action could be taken until barragein the upstreamreach. This is Dehradun(-z mm/yr).Therefore, not just r9s3.The debateon "embankmentor no not surprisingif onerecalls the statement that sedimentproduction is low in their embankment"continued and a certain of F C Hirst in r9o8 that catchments,there is obviouslyno remobi section of engineerskept pushing the ...it is morethan probablethat the heavy lisationof sedimentsdue to incisednature embankment strategy on the grounds floodswhich in everyrecent year have de- ofthe riverchannels. that constrainingthe river berweenthe vastatedseveral of the North Bihar districts It appearstherefore that high sediment embankmentswould increasethe waterway aremainly, if not entirely,due to prevalence of embankments.....Anembankment, with supplyfrom upstreamarea coupledwith of the river through increasein velocity little or no waterway through it for carry- low streampower in EGprivers has resulted and erosivepower. The arguments against ing off the floodwaters,is a glovethrown in in aggradation of channels, frequent the embankmentstrategy that these Nature'sface - an insult which shehas yet floods and rendering channelsprone to would affect the natural flow of water not beenknown to leaveunavenged. avulsion.To the contrary, in wcr, high and trap the sedimentsapart from creat- unit stream power and lower sediment ing problemsof waterloggingprevailed tessons of 18 August supplyto the wcp riversmay be responsi until this time. The Kusahabreach on 18August 2oo8 was ble for degradationand incision of river A very severeflood in r9s3-54and the not totallyunexpected but the disasterthat channel. Such hydrological differences subsequentsocial and political pressure followedwas unprecedented.The breach triggeredby climaticand tectonicvariations led to the formulationof the "Kosiproject" occurredat a dischargeof r44,ooocusecs in mayhave existed for a fairly long time and in r9s4. The project consistedof (a) a the river andmore than 8o-850/oof theflow this has producedmarked geomorphic barrage at Bhimnagarand afflux bund, of the river passedthrough a new course diversity acrossthe plains. This means (b) embankmentdownstream of barrage eastofthe originalcourse. On z4 August, that everyriver has its own peculiarities on both sides,(c) eastern and western canal the river was flowing asan approximately and thereforeneeds to be dealtwith care- system,(d) hydroelectricpower station zz km wide channeland swelledto about fully in termsof its management.Unfortu- in easterncanal, and (e) a high dam at 35 km wide in later weeks.Till today the nately,these factors are yet to becomea Barahkshetra.This projectwas primarily river flows through this new courseand part of rivermanagement in India. aimedat flood controland to provideirriga- has inundated large areasin more than tion for increasingagricultural productivity. r,ooo villages affecting nearly 35o,ooo History of Flood Management The project startedin r9s9 and the river peoplein the region.This breachwas dif- Keeping in view the hydrological and wasdiverted through the barragein 1963. ferent from all previousbreaches which geomorphologicalperspectives outlined Barring the high dam at Barahkshetra, havekept occurringrepeatedly along the above,let usnow briefly examine the flood most of the componentsof the project westernor easternembankment along the managementstrategies in Bihar plains have been completed or are still in Kosiduring the last 4-5 decades.During with particular referenceto the Kosi. progress.Apart from the huge irrigation the Kusahabreach, two unusual events Initial suggestionsfor flood controlfor the potentialof the project,the embankments occurred:(a) the river movedeast of the Kosiriver during late rgth century included on both sidesof the river formed a very moderncourse - unlike the westwardmi- constructionof marginal embankments, important component- designedto protect gration trend over the last zoo years,and high dam at upstreamsection, river train- about 2,Boo sq km of land in north (b) the total movementwas of the orderof ing in lower reachesand a seriesof bar- Bihar and Nepal from floods.While the about rzo km - an order of magnitude rages and canals.The famous Calcutta successof the entireproject is debatable,it higher than any singlemovement record- Conference(1896-gz) concluded against has certainly not servedthe objectiveof edin historicaltimes. any major flood control measuresexcept flood control. Severallarge floods and Reportsavailable suggest that the eastern for short embankments.The PatnaFlood frequent breachesin the embankments embankmentaround Kusahahas been Conferencein ry97 also voted against have continuedto occur in the region.In underpressure for sometime. The repetitive

44 NoVBMBBRr5, zooS llry Economic&PoliticalWEEKLY Elm'Fffi

suchaslateralshiftingbyavulsionandcut- river has fromDamodarembankments.Itistimeto -r* imagesshow that the to plan understandingof offs would be extremelydesirable been moving towards the eastern em- developa process-based control strategyin north Bihar riversand encompass all physicalattributes the flood bankmentat leastsince 1979. A breachin in- in water cycle plains. The detailed geomorphological the embankmentat Kusahawas detectedas of the earth'ssurface involved vestigationsmustbecoupledwithlong-term early as s August zooS and perhapsa forfloodmanagement.Itcallsforanational to reduce hydrologicaldata to developa betterunder- timely action could have avertedsuch a poricy for flood management ofthe causativefactors offloods that risks to the peopleand to the developed standing disaster.However, the fact remains procedures f'om floodin!' in the area'The flood mitigation embankmentshave not producedthe de- andnatural tnt'iton*tnt sirableresults and that they havealready'"-'-t what Next? logicalfactors to derivelong-termbenefits' outlivedtheir en .tiu. rruritJ:"' is the ex- to be learnt from the An associatedproblem in flooding The human intervention with a river If thereis any lesson tensiveerosion in the hilly catchmentarea a thresh- Kosidisaster - unlessthis eventpasses off like Kosi had perhapsreached sediment natural disaster- it is that which contributes excessive old and the lateral movehaveoccurred as yet another load to the Himalayan rivers thereby or later.The basicprinciples of weneedtomovetowardsastrategywhich sooner the flow parameters'A better emphasiseson "river management"rather influencing earth surfaceprocesses govern that large in ,.river The embankment understandingof the sedimentsupply changeshappen after a threshordis ex- than control". theuppercatchmentsoftheriversisneces- ceeded.The eastwardshift of the river strategyhasbeenquestionedattheinter- nutioiut levelciting the failurein Missis- saryparticularlyinrelationtodeveloping andthattoobyaboutrzokmsuggeststhat as chineserivers and long'term solutionsto flood mitigation may havereached the threshold sippi and three major the river and landusechanges' This alternativemethods such as small-scale afforestation ofitswestwardmovementandthenatural of arenow favouredflood is where an "integratedmanagement" fan building processeswould demandan irrigationstrategies in many flood'prone river basinbecomes crucial' eastwardsweep. Most analysts agree that control -.uru,., experi- Anotheraspect is to developbasin-scale Kosi within the countriessuch as Bangladesh. our the confinementof the the decision that therehas been no appre- floodrisk mapsand to improve embankmentfurther worsenedthe situa- enceshows support systems'Traditional methodsof tion and has causedsignificant aggrada- ciablefloodmoderationintheKosiandother flood risk mappingare basedon ground tionwithinthechannelbelt.Theriverwas riversofnorthBiharevenaftertheconstruc- and aerialobservations' but when than tion of embankmentsand dam and there surveys possiblyflowing at a higherelevation such little effecton the river stage. the phenomenon is widespread' the surrounding areas outside the em- will be very methodsare time consuming and expensive' about It is tinre to adopt an integratedriver bankment.There have been reports may which requires a Furthermore,timely aerial observations the risingbed level of the Kosifrom many basin management of the physical be impossibledue to prohibitiveweather partsin the plainsin downstreamreaches rigorous unJerstanding which river channels are conditions' we need a multi-parametric as evidencedfrom siltation of canalsand processesby approachfor delineating the flood risk stations. formedand maintained.An understanding sedimentbudgeting at downstream systems andsite-specific conditions areasin a geographicinformation In the upstreamreaches, the Kosibarrage ofthe historical (crs)environment. In a recentresearchwith In a is critical for successfulriver management hasalso accentuated the aggradation. to To achievethis, thereis a studentsat Itr Kanpur' we attempted studycarried out by ur oett i ror a stretch incluJingfloods. produceflood risk mapin partsof the Kosi suggested ,oongn .d aoin ludethe geomorphological of 16Tkm from chatrato Koparia one of the the river basin in flood river basin,north Bihar using thatallreacheschangedfroma,degrading,,p"r"i'.a.r, of parametersgovern the multi-criteriadecision-makingtechniques' to ,,aggrading,,in the post-embankment analysis,as these a AnalyticalHierarchicar process (enp)' The mm,/year hydiorogicalresponse of river Lasin.In periodwith ratesas high as r5o create of rainfall-runoff basic aim of this researchwas to creatinga volumechange of the order of traditioiar appioach of g.ororphology is not easily-readable and rapidly-accessible 2o-3oMcM/year. analysisthe .ff..t somerecent works flood risk maps basedon morphologic' Therefore,unlike the previous move- considered.Howeve! drainage topographic,and demographicdata' history, this disaster have focusedon incorporating mentsand flooding of different data sets networkparametersandrivermorphology A combination seemstohaveastronghumancomPonent (tRst'Iss-ttt Morework on this aspect suchas remote sensing images in terms of our intervention and ill- in flood analysis. Indian riversis needed data),census data (r99r),and topographic planned, outdated flood management particularlyon the mapsobtained from governmentagencies that a for better understanding of flooding strategies.Time has come to realise index causativefactors. was used to computea composite solutionto floodsdoes not lie in processesand their long-term basedon multi-parametric ,,controllingl,theriverthroughembanknens Aproper integrationof fluvial geomor- of flood risk analysis'Finally, all datawas integrated butin,,managingl,theriversthroughinte-phologyandriveiengineeringaidedbyhigh satellitedata is the inacls environmenttoprepareafloodrisk grated planning and understanding of ,.rot,iiion aerial and map which not only definedthe suscepti- has once needofthe hour to understandthe flood- riverine processes.This event but also the rivers suchas those bility of eacharea to inundation again raised doubts about the embank- ing behaviourof provided means for assessmentof flood the draining the north Biharplains' complete mentstrategy although we alreadyhad property' related fluvial processes risk in terms of loss of life and deplorableresults from chineserivers and und.rstindingof 45 Economic& Politicalweerrv @l NoVEMBBR 15' 2oo8 Althoughthis mapwas validated with in- or not it is feasibleand desirableto bring hazards in India and especiallyin the undationmaps of the NationalAeronautics the Kosi back to its course before the north Bihar plains. Repeatedfailure of and SpaceAdministration (Nese)for the Kusaha breach, and (b) what are the flood control measuresin different parts last few years,it did not show the areas long-termsolutions for flood manage- of the country calls for an urgentneed of flooded during the recentfloods as high ment given that embankmentsdo exist an integratedflood analysisincluding risk zonesprimarily becausethe August alongthe Kosi?While severalsuggestions the hydrological,geomorphological and 18event was not a simpleoverbank flood- are floating in the media and informal geologicalunderstanding ofthe riverbasin. ing but was causedby an unprecedented newsgroups,it may not be easyto com- The ur.ropflood policy study also called shift of the river due to a breach in the ment without a detailed evaluation.A for greatly increasedresearch on river embankment.Our modelcan be improved goodpossibility is to usethe new channel morphology,river training, mathematical if suchinformation on long-termmigration asa diversionchannel for the excesswater modelling, and land and water manage' historyof the river can be incorporated during floodsand follow the age-oldprac- ment. A "system"approach to river engi- along with large volumesof nearly inac- tice of controlledflooding. Perhaps a few neeringmust becomean essentialpart of cessiblehydrological data, repetitivesat- other paleochannelsof the Kosi can be floodmanagement. ellite imagesand anthropogenicfactors surveyedand a system of channel net- The Kosidisaster should provoke a criti suchas deforestation, history of embank- works can be developedas a long-term cal evaluationof the flood control meas- ment breachesand other engineering effort. The courseof the Kosithrough the uresto be immediatelyundertaken and a structures.There is an urgent need for barrageand within the embankmentwould documentneeds to be preparedcontain- the preparationof reliableflood risk maps need significant channel improvement ing the historical performanceof the which shouldinvolve (a) a physicalflood- perhaps through dredging in selected flood control strategies,impacts of the ing system,(b) a historical databaseon reaches.Many of the embankmentshave existingflood control measures,know- the performanceof the system,(c) the dis- probablyoutlived their time span and it ledgegaps, and reportsfrom the specific tribution of flood risk, (d) optionsfor in- may not be advisableto raise them to sitesin the Kosibasin as well as the sur- terventionin flooding system,and finally accommodateadditional discharge. How- rounding areas.It is important to adopt (e)an efficientdecision support system. ever,proper maintenance and continuous an integratedriver basin management Most of our curent flood risk manage- monitoringof the embankmentsare vital and scientistsand engineersshould be mentrests on a systemicresponse to oneor to avert such disasters.Apart from this, encouragedto take up detailedstudies, to a handful of "designevents" rather than alternativeschemes of flood management suggestalternative schemesfor flood temporalinteractions. Given the complexity (e g, rainwater harvesting, artificial re- mitigation and to identify the areas in of river sJistemsand multiplicity of possible charge, canal system,dredging, river order of priority. A networking of antecedentconditions, it is important to training, interlinking, etc) and drainage academic,research and governmentalin- consideras to how the flooding system improvementmust be seriouslyexamined stitutions undertakingstudies on floods, would perform in a very wide range of after detailed studies are undertaken and a multidisciplinaryapproach can ben- conditions. For example, the current involvingacademia. efit flood managementimmensely. At the floodsin the Kosiinundated the areasthat sametime, the mediashould play a proac- are supposedlyless flood-prone as these AWake-up Call tive role in awarenessbuilding among have not experiencedfloods in the last Floods have long been consideredas a the public. few years.As a result,a large population purely hydrological phenomenon,and has beenliving there under a falsesense flood managementhas remained the REFERENCES of security.If only we had a longer data domain of the engineersin this country. Mishra, Dinesh Kumar (zoo8): "Bihar Floods:The Inevitable Has Happenbed",Economic & Political set and a better understandingof river Therefore, flood management Pro- Weekly,6 September. migrationbehaviour, we couldhave devel- grammeshave essentially focused on hy- - (zoo8): Trapped!Between the Devil arul Deep Wcters, Peoples' Science Instirute, SANDRR oped a more reliable flood risk maps to drological variations and river control. NewDelhi. help flood managementprocedures. This hasbeen one of the majorreasons for Welts, Neil A Dorr, Jr A John (1982):"Shifting of efforts the Kosi River,Northern India", GeoloSlr,Vol ts, It is alsoimportant to spreadawareness the failure of flood management Issue2, p 2o4. about floods amongstthe local popula- acrossthe globe including India. Hydro- tion. Apart from the misery that floods logicalresponse of a basinis governedby bring, the beneficialeffects offlood have the basin geomorphologyand hence,an Economic&Politicalwnnxlv concept integrated approach to flood studies to be understoodand the age-old ovailIble0t of "living with the floods"needs to be reit- should involve the geomorphological erated.The river-specificand site-specific understandingof the river basin.Historical DelhiMagazine Distributors knowledgebase has to be compiledin the data reveal that even after continuous Pvt Ltd form of guidancedocuments for planners effortsto controlthe floods,flood damages 110,Bangla Sahib Marg aswell aslocal population. and flood affected areas in India have NewDelhi 110 001 TWoimportant issues are currently be- increasedwith time. At present,floods Ph41561062163 ing debatedin variouscircles: (a) whether are among the most disastrousnatural

q6 NoVBMBER15, 2oo8 Em Economic&PoliticalWEEKLY within.with the breachin the embankmentat Kusahaand the Kosi makinga breakfor freedom,a tenuous peacehas suddenlyreturned to thesevillages - but they will be backto squareone when next Marchcomes around,and the breachis, inevitably,plugged.

Forefathers'lesson Whatwill happenis the breachat Kusahawill be plugged,the new courseof the riverwill dry, and 414 villagesin Indiaand Nepal,with a populationof some1.2 million, will revert to beingtrapped within.the two emblnkmentsand exposedto the vagariesof the river.Those living in the protecledcountryside of the greaterfrom easternembankment will feel secure,-atleast for the time being.But the riskfor them will be far (A now on, as the possibilityof a breachat some pointdown the easternembankment cannot be ruledout' breachof the Westernembankment is less likely,because the Kosi i$ at the westernmostend of its pendulumswing.) The river'sflow this year was, fortunately,fairly low, but one can only imaginethe devasiationthat would have resultedfiom higherdischarges. In the past,after all, water levelsin the Kosi havebeen four times higherthan were recordedin 2008.

It is also importantto notethat, for the firsttime, the riverthis year breachedthe bund upstreamfrom the gave Bhimnagarbarrage, devastating four Nepalipanchayats along with a vast area in India.This an internationaldimension to the citastropne,aiong wiih embarrassmentfor the governmentsin New Delhiand patna,because the maintenanceof the barrage-andembankments in both countriesis the respon$ibilityof lndianauthorities. Such a situationwill likely never be allowedto happenagain. This would mean that the put entirelength of the Kosiembankment, measuring nearly 300 kilom.etres,.wouldhave to be under constantiurveillance, forever - a tall orderby any standard.The day will come when it will simplynot be possibleto bringthe Kosi backwithin the embankments,due to the exorablerise in the river'sbed. And on ifratOay, the nei,vcourse will be embankedyet again* not becausethe peopleof easternBihar will demand it, but becausethe governmentwill be leftwith no otheroption

Manysuggestions that have arisenfrom time to time,though none seem to be any closerto a solution.Part of ini, pfi"ation is, of course,that the Kosiflows between two countries,thus allowingfor negotiating parties"onto agree, disagree or, as has happenedthus requiringnegotiations, which have by experience,been must endless.W[ite negotiationsmust be continued,a serioussearch for solutionsat the locallevel in Bihar be simultaneouslyimbarkedupon. In this,should we notbe askingthe questionof how peoplesurvived beforethe 1g50s,before the embankmentswere built?What were the embankmentsbuilt as an alternative to, and why did was that alternativeseen as untenable? whereit Alongthis line of thinking,possible solution could be to activateall of the river's15 channels,from begiis nearChatra in tit6p'at,and distributethe waterand silt from there into all of the channels.at leastas faias possible.Such an approachwould requirebilateral negotiations between India and Nepal,however' evenas pastwater-relateci hegotiations between the two havedragged on for decades.Besides' such a 'spreading,will requireremarkible technological and socio-politicalability. The peoplewould essentially haveto be askedto learnto'live with the flood',and alsotake its advantage,like their forefathers.

ln the Kosibelt, it is very easy to find elderlypeople who say,with confidence,that their situationwas much ,pre-emban(*ent' betterduring the Oays.We can onlyassume that they.havesome good reasonsfor saying so; in these-days,the inconvenienceo? a few weeksof floodwas life-givingsilt on the fields,and easy polish drainageof waier post-monsoon.lt is essentialto revivethe traditionalknowledge, and to the same with mldern science.There is a needto bringthe livedexperiences of the localcommunities together with groups' the skillsof the engineers.Unfortunately, muiual contempt has grownup betweenthese two with the in engineersfeeling i-hat the communityconsists of laymen,while the communityfeels that the engineersare caflootswith the politicians'and administrators'perceived aim to exploitthem. As long as this mutual mistrustexists, no solutionis possible.

Ultimately,the essentralproblem with the Kosifloods is thatof handlingsediments and improvingdrainage. prevented The pol1'rcaland geographicalsituation along the Kosiis suchthat waterand silt cannotbe from availablewith which to plan'while comhg ontothe if ain-s.fne fact is that the eitire lengthof the riveris. not the reiraindertoo presentssevere challenges. The Gangaplain requires spread-out flooding, and this term to be a shouldnot be seen rn a necessarilynegatiie light.While flooding in this area is regularlymadg -oyt disaster,the fact is it is not; before"anylhingelJe can progress,this needsto be appreciated.With this understanding,all obstructionsto the lmootn flow of the Kosi'swater needto be removed,and the silt needs to be allowed-t,ospread over as largean area as possible.Only then can an open debatebegin over how the powersthat-beshould proceedl Once the peoplesettle on a real,workable solution, the statewill, eventually,be compelledto follow.