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Newsletter Power & Utilities in Europe Newsletter Power & Utilities Newsletter Power & Utilities in Europe July, 2017 1 Power & Utilities July 2017 Newsletter Power & Utilities NEWSLETTER Newsletter June 2017 Power & Utilities in Europe COMMODITIES Commodities Crude oil Crude oil ($/bbl) Source: Capital IQ Crude oil ($/bbl) 120 OPEC and 11 non-OPEC countries, including Russia, agreed to extend Spot Brent 110 production cuts of 1.8m barrels per day until 2018. Compliance with the 100 Spot WTI 90 agreement has been high at around 96%. However, Libyan and Nigerian oil 80 productionFuture (both of whom are exempt from production cuts) increased over Brent 70 the second quarter. 60 50 Global supply rose to 96.7mb/d and OECD commercial oil stocks are now 40 30 higher than their levels when OPEC first agreed to cut production. As a result of the continuing oversupply in the oil market, oil prices have been in phased decline from $55/bbl in March to reach a low of $45/bbl by the end of June. The period from April to June 2017 saw prices heading for the biggest Spot Brent Spot WTI Future Brent Future WTI quarterly decline since 2015, during which time Brent Crude has fallen about Source Capital IQ 10 percent. OPEC and 11 non-OPEC countries, including Russia, agreed to extend production cuts of 1.8m barrels per day until 2018. Compliance with the agreement has been high at around 96%. However, Libyan and Nigerian oil production (both of whom are exempt from production cuts) increasedGas over the second quarter. Global supplyGas rose (€/MWh)to 96.7mb/d and OECD commercial oil stocks are now higher than Source: Capital IQ their levels when OPEC first agreed to cut production. As a result of the continuing oversupply in the oil market, oil prices have been in phased decline from $55/bbl in March to reach a low of $45/bbl by the end of GasJune. (€/mWh) The period from April to June 2017 saw prices heading for the biggest quarterly decline since 2015, during which time Brent Crude has fallen 30 Gas prices in Q2 2017 have largely met expectations from Q1 and have about 28 10 percent. 26 followedSpot NBPtypical seasonal consumption patterns with warming weather 24 reducingSpot TTFdemand after a cold winter. Particularly hot weather in the UK in June 22 Future NBP 20 combined with the UK Belgium gas interconnector closing for maintenance saw Future TTF 18 UK prices fall sharply in late June as falling demand and a lack of export route 16 14 for UK gas fed through to wholesale prices. 12 10 In the forwards market the spread between NBP and TTF for next winter has widened. This may reflect the recent announcement in June that the Rough gas storage facility, which accounts for 70% of UK gas storage Spot NBP Spot TTF Future NBP Future TTF capacity, is to close permanently after being partially closed over winter Gas prices in Q2 2017 have largely met expectations from Q1 and have2016/17. followed typical Source Capital IQ seasonal consumption patterns with warming weather reducing demand after a cold winter. Particularly hot weather in the UK in June combined with the UK Belgium gas interconnector closing for maintenance saw UK prices fall sharply in late June as falling demand and a lack of export route for UK gas fed through to wholesale prices. In the forwards market the spread between NBP and TTF for next winter has widened. This may reflect the recent announcement in June that the Rough gas storage facility, which accounts for 70% of UK gas storage capacity, is to close permanently after being partially closed over winter 2016/17. 3 NewsletterNewsletter Power Power & & Utilities Utilities Coal Source: Capital IQ Coal ($/metric ton) Coal ($/metric tonne) 100 The coal price slide from late 2016 was arrested in April as Cyclone Debbie 90 hitSpot key ARAcoal production facilities in Australia. This lead to China becoming 80 a keyFuture swing ARA supplier of coal in the global market during and immediately 70 following the cyclone switching from being the largest coal importer in 2016 to 60 being a major exporter at on spot markets. As markets moved into June coal prices ticked up again to around 80$/metric tonne. 50 40 Spot ARA Future ARA Source Capital IQ The coal price slide from late 2016 was arrested in April as Cyclone Debbie hit key coal production facilities in Australia. This lead to China becoming a key swing supplier of coal in the global market during and immediately following the cyclone switching from being the Carbonlargest coal importerCarbon in 2016 to being a major exporter at on spot markets. As markets moved into June coal prices ticked up again to around 80$/metric tonne. Source: Capital IQ CO2 (€/ton) CO² (€/ton) 10 Carbon prices have decreased steadily in Q1 and Q2 of 2017, but have not 9 reachedSpot ETS comparable levels to August 2016. There was a late uptick in prices 8 inFuture June 2017ETS but generally trading has been fairly flat with negotiations to 7 finalize the post-2020 EU ETS reform bill failing to reach an agreement in 6 June. 5 Longer term the potential for Brexit to impact on the EU ETS has been raised 4 as a risk that may introduce volatility to EUA prices. If Brexit negotiations 3 were to result the UK leaving the EU ETS then this could have negative impacts on the market as a whole but the price movement will depend on whether the UK is expected to be a long term net purchaser or seller of EUAs Spot ETS Future ETS Source Capital IQ compared to its current allocation. Carbon prices have decreased steadily in Q1 and Q2 of 2017, but have not reached comparable levels to August 2016. There was a late uptick in prices in June 2017 but generally trading has been fairly flat with negotiations to finalize the post-2020 EU ETS reform bill failing to reach an agreement in June. Longer term the potentialBaseload for Brexit Electricity to impact on the EU ETS has been raised as a risk that may introduceBaseload volatility Electricity to EUA prices. If Brexit negotiations were to result the UK leaving the EUSource: ETS Bloomberg then thisBaseload could have Spot negative Day impacts Ahead on (€/MWh) the market as a whole but the price movement will depend on whether the UK is expect to be a long term net purchaser or seller of EUAs compared to its currentBaseload allocation. Spot Day Ahead (€/MWh) 90 Moving out of a cold winter and into warmer months has seen electricity 80 prices fall back from their winter peaks across the continent. This was Germanysupported by improving capacity margins and falling wholesale gas prices. UK 70 Italy The return to full capacity of the interconnector between Great Britain France 60 and France increased flexibility in these markets and the return of a number of French nuclear plants to normal service eased supply concerns in these 50 markets. 40 The return to more normal market conditions exposed the structurally higher level of UK power prices as a result of the UK’s Carbon Price Floor legislation 30 which tends to make the UK a net importer of cheaper continental power. 20 Germany UK Italy France Moving out of a cold winter and into warmer months has seen eleSourcectricity Bloomberg prices fall back from their winter peaks across the continent. This was supported by improving capacity margins and falling wholesale gas prices. The return to full capacity of the interconnector between Great Britain and France increased42 flexibility in these markets and the return of a number of French nuclear plants to normal service eased supply concerns in these markets. The return to more normal market conditions exposed the structurally higher level of UK power prices as a result of the UK’s Carbon Price Floor legislation which tends to make the UK a net importer of cheaper continental power. Newsletter Power & Utilities Newsletter Power & Utilities UK clean dark & spark spread Source: Bloomberg UK Clean dark & spark spreads (£/MWh)UK Clean dark and spark spreads (£/MWh) 35 30 Following highs of both clean spark spreads and clean dark spreads in 25 Clean sparkNovember, spread gas plan margins have fallen back to their pre-peak levels whilst coal 20 Clean darkmargins spread continued to fall to their lowest level in many years reaching -£5/MWh. 15 10 This was driven by increasing generation from low marginal cost sources 5 leading to gas plant regularly being the price setting plant on the UK 0 system rather than coal and falling gas plant eroding margins available -5 for coal generators. -10 June in particular saw significant generation from low marginal cost generation with a new record set for low carbon generation on the UK Clean spark spread Clean dark spread system. For a period on the 7th of June more than 70% of generation in the UK Following highs of both clean spark spreads and clean dark spreads in November,was gasfrom plan low carbon sources. This briefly pushed prices into negative territory margins have fallen back to their pre-peak levels whilst coal mSourceargins Bloomberg continued to fall to their lowest level in many years reaching -£5/MWh. This was driven by increasingfurther generation biting into margins for conventional generators. from low marginal cost sources leading to gas plant regularly being the price setting plant on the UK system rather than coal and falling gas plant eroding margins availableWith for increasing coal low carbon generation on the UK system this is a pattern generators.
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