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Japan's Article 9 and Japanese Public Opinion: Implications for Japanese Defense Policy and Security in the Asia Pacific

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Japan's Article 9 and Japanese Public Opinion: Implications for Japanese Defense Policy and Security in the Asia Pacific Wright State University CORE Scholar Browse all Theses and Dissertations Theses and Dissertations 2018 Japan's Article 9 and Japanese Public Opinion: Implications for Japanese Defense Policy and Security in the Asia Pacific Julie Jo Tollefson Wright State University Follow this and additional works at: https://corescholar.libraries.wright.edu/etd_all Part of the International Relations Commons Repository Citation Tollefson, Julie Jo, "Japan's Article 9 and Japanese Public Opinion: Implications for Japanese Defense Policy and Security in the Asia Pacific" (2018). Browse all Theses and Dissertations. 1934. https://corescholar.libraries.wright.edu/etd_all/1934 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses and Dissertations at CORE Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in Browse all Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of CORE Scholar. For more information, please contact [email protected]. JAPAN’S ARTICLE 9 AND JAPANESE PUBLIC OPINION: IMPLICATIONS FOR JAPANESE DEFENSE POLICY AND SECURITY IN THE ASIA PACIFIC A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts By JULIE JO TOLLEFSON B.A., Wright State University, 2012 2018 Wright State University WRIGHT STATE UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL March 26th, 2018 I HEREBY RECOMMEND THAT THE THESIS PREPARED UNDER MY SUPERVISION BY Julie Jo Tollefson ENTITLED Japan’s Article 9 and Japanese Public Opinion: Implications for Japanese Defense Policy and Security in the Asia Pacific BE ACCEPTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF Master of Arts. ________________________________________ Laura M. Luehrmann, Ph.D. Thesis Director ________________________________________ Laura M. Luehrmann, Ph.D. Director, Masters of Arts Program in International and Comparative Politics Committee on Final Examination _____________________________ Laura M. Luehrmann, Ph.D. Department of Political Science _____________________________ Kathryn Meyer, Ph.D. Department of History _____________________________ December Green, Ph.D. Department of Political Science _____________________________ Barry Milligan, Ph.D. Interim Dean of the Graduate School ABSTRACT Tollefson, Julie Jo. M.A. Department of Political Science, Wright State University, 2018. Japan’s Article 9 and Japanese Public Opinion: Implications for Japanese Defense Policy and Security in the Asia Pacific. The Asia Pacific power structure is facing numerous challenges. Scholarship demonstrates Japan has encountered arduous obstacles as it balances Chinese and North Korean activity. As Japan attempts to expand its military capabilities, polling data shows that defense policy has conflicted with Japan’s citizens and neighboring countries. The focal point of these contentions is Article 9 of the Japanese constitution which restrains the Japanese military to self-defense purposes. Prime Minister Shinzō Abe has vowed to revise Article 9 by 2020. However, revising Article 9 is no simple task. Research demonstrates that for decades Japanese public opinion has been opposed to the revision of Article 9. This research examines trends in Japanese public opinion and its influence over Japanese defense policy. The research additionally suggests possible outcomes of the public referendum required before revising Article 9. Finally, this analysis provides implications for the Asia Pacific’s security environment if Article 9 is revised. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. CHAPTER 1: DILEMMAS ROOTED IN HISTORY…………………………………1 Statement of Problem……………………………………………………………..1 Literature Review…………………………………………………………………5 Historical Overview……………………………………………………………...11 Proposed Findings………………………………………………………………..19 II. CHAPTER 2: THE RELEVANCE OF JAPANESE PUBLIC OPINION…………....22 Public Opinion in Japan………………………………………………………….22 Observing Japanese Public Opinion……………………………………………..28 1970-1979………………………………………………………………………..30 1980-1989………………………………………………………………………..36 1990-1999………………………………………………………………………..40 2000-2009………………………………………………………………………..44 2010-2017: Public Opinion and Policy Split…………………………………….46 Conclusions………………………………………………………………………56 III. CHAPTER 3: A TUMULTUOUS ENVIRONMENT………………………………58 iv Security in the Asia Pacific………………………………………………….....58 Japan……………………………………………………………………………61 China……………………………………………………………………………70 North Korea…………………………………………………………………….76 Conclusions…………………………………………………………………….78 IV: CHAPTER 4: LESSONS FROM PRESENT DEFENSE POLICIES……………...81 Japanese Defense Policy………………………………………………………..81 Japanese Defense Policy and Article 9………………………………………....83 The Japanese Self Defense Forces and the Military of the United States………90 Japanese Defense Policy and the United Nations……………………………….95 Conclusions……………………………………………………………………..99 V. CHAPTER 5: CHANGE ON THE HORIZON?........................................................101 The Relevance of the Asia Pacific……………………………………………...101 The Future of the JSDF…………………………………………………………102 The Significance of Public Opinion and Security in the Asia Pacific………….104 Areas for Further Research……………………………………………………..108 v Conclusion…………………………………………………………………….111 Bibliography…………………………………………………………………………..113 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 2.1: Strength of the JSDF………………………………………………………………………...33 2.2: Response to “What do you think of the effectiveness of various means for Japan’s security?”……………………………………………………………………………………...33-34 2.3: Activities of the SDF, 1973………………………………………………………………34-35 2.4: The SDF and UN PKO, 1989………………………………………………………………..38 2.5: The SDF Overseas, 1991…………………………………………………………………42-43 2.6: The SDF Overseas, 2010……………………………………………………………………48 2.7: Cabinet Priorities, 2010…………………………………………………………………..48-49 2.8: Cabinet Priorities, 2013-2014…………………………………………………………….49-50 2.9: Constitutional Revisions and Abe Cabinet, 2013-2015………………………………….51-53 vii ACRONYMS A2/D2 Anti-area/area denial ADIZ Area Identification Zone CEC Cooperative Engagement Capability CSIS Center for Strategy and International Studies DDG Guided Missile Destroyer DPJ Democratic Party of Japan E2-D Northrop Grumman “Hawkeye” early warning aircraft GDP Gross Domestic Product ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IISS International Institute of Security Studies IRBM Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile ISR Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance JSDF Japanese Self Defense Force LDP Liberal Democratic Party MSDF Maritime Self Defense Force OEC Observatory of Economic Complexity OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development PKO Peacekeeping Operations PLA People’s Liberation Army PM Prime Minister viii SDF Self Defense Force SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SM Standard Missile SM-2 Block IIIB Standard Missile 2 medium-range anti-ship/surface-to-air missile THAAD Terminal High Altitude Air Defense UNPCC United Nations Peace Cooperation Corps UNPKO United Nations Peacekeeping Operations USD United States Dollar UWS Underwater Weapons System ix NON-ENGLISH TERMS Amakudari (天下り ) Literally heavens, sky imperial (天) and below, down, descend, give, low, inferior (下り); Meaning descent from heaven or the Japanese business practice of hiring retired bureaucrats into high level positions of a similar industry. Gaiatsu (外圧 ) Literally outside (外), and pressure, push, overwhelm, oppress, dominate (圧); Meaning foreign pressure or one or more countries applying political pressure on Japan. Gensuikyo (原水協)Literally original, primitive, primary, fundamental, raw (原), hydrogen, (水), and cooperation (協); Meaning an aversion to nuclear weapons or the organization within Japan devoted to the abolition of nuclear weapons, The Japan Council Against Atomic and Hydrogen Bombs. Ritsuryo (律令) Literally rhythm, law, regulation gauge, control, orders (律), and ancient laws, command or decree (令); Meaning criminal, administrative, and civil codes; legal codes of the Nara and Heian eras based on Chinese models. Shenzhan Literally to be cautious of war; Archaic Chinese term meaning non-war. Zoku (族) Literally tribe or family (族); Meaning a specific interest group within the Japanese government. x I. CHAPTER 1: DILEMMAS ROOTED IN HISTORY Statement of Problem The Asia Pacific is a subtle, churning miasma of regional tensions, territorial disputes, and arms races. Territorial disputes exist between China, Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam over the South and East China Seas. South Korea and China remain unsatisfied by Japan’s apologies for war crimes during World War II. Comfort women from South Korea demonstrate uncompromising behavior towards Japan, although Japan had offered an apology and financial compensation in 2015. A statue representing these WWII victims was erected outside of the Japanese embassy in South Korea in early 2017. Even expectations for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe to address the Korean comfort women issue at the 2018 winter Olympics were present, despite the 2015 agreement (Kim and Seig 2018). Military buildup in China and Japan causes ripples of tension throughout Asia Pacific. Both countries have yet to reach an agreement concerning bilateral relations though as of early 2018, Prime Minister Abe and President Xi Jinping have publically declared interests in improving ties (Suruga 2017). Actors not native to Asia Pacific such as the United States have also contributed to the distress in the region. The installation of the United States’ Terminal High Altitude Air Defense system in South Korea as well as Japan’s consideration of purchasing THAAD have triggered ruptures in Sino-Korean, Sino-Japanese and
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