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N7O0 2 34Zjy1 Final Report ________ A STUDY OF TRENDS IN THE DEMAND FOR INFORMATION TRANSFER Prepared for: NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION AMES RESEARCH CENTER MOFFETT FIELD, CALIFORNIA N7O0 2 34ZjY1 • . ­ ~Jp J[ ST ANFORD RESEARCH IS~l~l Park, CaliforniaCenlo 94025 tT.SA. _ REPRODUCEDSY NATIONAL TECHNICAL L -. - INFORMATION SERVICE US, DEPARTMERI Of COMMERCE SPUINCFIE19. v.246 '77 February 1970 A STUDY OFTRENDS IN THE DEMAND FOR INFORMATION TRANSFER By: R. W. HOUGH, CAROLYN FRATESSA, VIRGINIA HOLLEY, A. H. SAMUEL, L. J. WELLS Prepared for: NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION AMES RESEARCH CENTER MOFFETT FIELD, CALIFORNIA CONTRACT NA82-5369 SRI Project MU-7866 PRECEDING PAGE BLANK NOT FILMED. PREFACE This report describes the results of a study of demand trends in information transfer, performed by Stanford Research Institute for the Mission Analysis Division, Office of Advanced Research and Technology, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Moffett Field, California. The research was conducted in the SRI Transportation and Logistics Depart­ ment, of which Clark Henderson is the Director. The project leader was Roger W. Hough. Carolyn Fratessa, Virginia Holley, and Larry J. Wells were major participants in the study. Substantial assistance in accomplishing the work was provided by members of groups outside the Transportation and Logistics Department. These included Elmer B. Shapiro, Information Science and Engineering Division, and Aryeh H. Samuel, Physical Sciences Division. Many other individuals also provided helpful suggestions at various points during the research, and Mr. Louis Feldner of Palo Alto provided consulting assistance during the latter part of the study. The project team is grateful to Mr. Edgar M. Van Vleck, NASA Mission Analysis Division Technical Monitor, for valuable assistance and guidance as the study proceeded. A brief.review and discussion of the research with Mr. A. R. Gregg Andrus, NASA Headquarters, and Mr. Sam Gubin, Goddard Space Flight Center, elicited many relevant comments and important con­ siderations. Assistance was also provided by a number of individuals outside of SRI. Principal among these were Messrs. H. J. McMains, William Quirk, and R. G. Hochstuhl, American Telephone and Telegraph Company, New York, New York; IV. A. Cornell, L. R. Pamm, J. C. Ewin, R. L. Simms, Jr., and H. S. McDonald, Bell Telephone Laboratories, Holmdel, New Jersey; Paul Baran and A. J. Lipinski, Institute for the Future, Middletown, Connecti­ cut; and Dr. Eugene Fubini, Consultant, Washington, D.C. We are grateful to each of these individuals and to the many other unnamed contributors for their assistance in performing the study. Although information and advice was received from many sources, the findings and conclusions presented in this report are the responsibility of Stanford Research Institute. i Precedin page blank iii PRECEDING PAGE BLANK NOT FILMED. CONTENTS PREFACE .. ... iii I INTRODUCTION . 1 Background ... .. 1... Scope ..................... .............. 3 II SMARY ................... ................. 7 Method of Approach ............... ............ 7 Results ................... ................ 8 Discussion ............. ............... 11 III THE ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK ......... ............ 13 Demand Trend Analysis ......... .............. 13 Historical Growth Patterns for Selected Technological Developments ........... .................... 14 Summary ............... ................. 23 IV DEVELOPMENT OF DEMAND PROJECTIONS ...... ....... .. 25 Telephone ............... .............. .. 26 Videotelephone ............. ............ 30 Network Television Transmission ...... .......... .. 32 Telegraph ............... .............. 34 Stolen Vehicle and Stolen Personal Property Information Transfer ........ ......... ........ 37 Motor Vehicle Registrations .. ..... ......... 37 Patent Searches ...... ......... ........ 41 Value Transfer-Checks and Credit Transactions ....... 41 Stock Transfers . .... ................. 44 Airline Reservations .. ................. 44 First Class and Airmail .................. 47 Remote Printing of New Books ................. 47 Summary of the Projections ................ 49 Conversion to Bits per Year ................ 49 Local Versus Long Distance Transmission .......... 56 {Precedingpage blank1 V CON'TENTS V VALIDATION OF RESULTS . ............... 61 Data Generated by the Input Devices ... ............. .. 61 Other Estimates'of Message Traffic ... ............. .. 63 REFERENCES ....................... ........ 69 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............ .................. ... 73 APPEND IXES A LIST OF SERVICES ......... ............... ... 93 B PROJECTION OF DEMAND FOR SATELLITE POSTAL SERVICES . ... 119 vi ILLUSTRATIONS 1 Projected Information Transfer Volume, 1970.1990..... .. 9 2 U.S. Telephone Growth, 1876-1970 ... ....... ..... 15 3 U.S. Telegraph Service, 1867-1970 .... .... ..... 17 4 Growth of Television in the United States.. ....... 19 5 Growth of Microwave Radio Relay in the United States . 20 6 Early Growth of the Automobile in the United States . 21 7 Growth of Computers in the United States..... ...... 22 8 Telephone Service........................ 29 .9 Videotelephone Service ... ........ ......... 33 10 Network Television Transmission . ............ 35 11 Telegraph Service .... .... ............. 36 12 Stolen Vehicle Information Trend Indicator ......... 38 13 Stolen Property Information Trend Indicator ........ 39 14 Motor Vehicle Registration Renewal Trend Indicator ..... 40 15 Patent Searches Trend Indicator .. .... ........ 42 16 Check and Credit Transactions ... ...... ...... 43 17 Stock Transfer Information Trend Indicators ........ 45 18 Airline Reservation Information Trend Indicator ...... 46 19 First Class and Airmail Volume ... .. ... ....... 48 20 New Books ................... ............ 50 vii PRECEDING PAGE BLANK NOT FILMED. TABLES 1 Projected Information Transfer Volume, 1970-1990 ... ..... 10 2 Classifications Used To Summarize Results of the Study . 10 3 Average Annual Rates of Early Growth for Selected New Technological Developments .......... ....... 24 4 Telephone Conversations ....................... 27 5 Long Distance Rates .......... ........... ... 28 6 Calls per Day per Telephone, 1880-1970 ..... ..... ... 31 7 Summary of Demand Trend Projections ...... ...... .. 51 8 Development of Bits per Year ........ ........ ... 53 9 Estimates of Local Versus Long Distance Traffic in 1990 . 57 10 Estimates of Business Transactions ....... ...... 65 ix I INTRODUCTION One of the most challenging assignments for the United States in the coming decades is the sorting out of the nation's communications capacities, capabilities, and needs. With the advent of communication satellites, computer networks, and new services of all kinds, and with a general and rapidly increasing demand for all types of information transfer, the nation faces as it never has before the prospect of radical changes in its communications patterns. This report examines one aspect of this "communications revolution"-­ new services. The study was commissioned by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration as part of a series of investigations, described below, into information transfer via satellite. The present research does not concentrate on satellites, since it is an investigation of tele­ communications needs and services without regard to the means of trans­ mission. However, many of the services described could easily be pro­ vided by satellite. Other studies in the series consider this question. The method used is one of identifying potential as well as present­ day services, classifying them into major categories, then establishing quantitative estimates of message traffic occurring within a given time period.* In order to aggregate diverse services such as voice, video, and record and data transmission traffic estimates are converted to the common denominator of bits (binary digits). These are then summed to provide a composite picture of potential requirements for the future. The study does not consider, nor do the conclusions imply, estimates of circuit requirements. 'While it would be possible to use the results of the research as a basis for such further analyses, considerably more effort, both in time and funding, would be required for such a study. Background In late 1968, the Mission Analysis Division of NASA's Office of Advanced Research and Technology issued a Request for Proposal concerning * The period of interest for the forecasts is nominally 1970-1990. The geographic area of interest is the United States. L­ an Information Transfer Satellite Requirement Study." A portion of the work statement for this RFP read as follows: Technology has created an increasing need for the transfer of information in large quantities, at high rates, and with highly specialized requirements. Initial projections of this demand for information transfer services suggest that, in the future, advanced satellite systems may be needed to supplement ter­ restrial services. In order to identify the associated tech­ nology requirements of these potential systems, it is necessary to begin to identify the information transfer categories for which the future demand may be significant and the potential payoff promising. Stanford Research Institute responded to this Request for Proposal, preparing a bid that dealt with each of the topics required. In the subsequent evaluation, the study was won by Lockheed Missiles and Space Company (LMSC) of -Sunnyvale, California.
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