Science & Society Insights

SCIENCE & SOCIETY INSIGHTS

Valentí Rull

INDEX

2009  Beyond us. EMBO Reports, 10: 1191-1195.

2010  The candid approach. EMBO Reports, 11: 14-17.  Who needs a greener revolution? EMBO Reports, 11: 659-663.  Food security: green revolution drawbacks. Science, 328: 169.  El mito del desarrollo sostenible (The myth of sustainable development). Collectanea Botanica, 29: 103-109. English translation included.

2011  Sustainability, capitalism and evolution. EMBO Reports, 12: 103-106.  Research efficiency in relation to investment. Collectanea Botanica, 30: 107-108.

2012  Time, evolution and physical reductionism. EMBO Reports, 13: 181-185.  Towards a scientific force: some insights and a manifesto. Collectanea Botanica, 31: 121-125.

2013  Are we willing to build a better future? Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 28: 443- 444.  La ciencia, esa extranjera (Science in Spain: a historical debt). Collectanea Botanica, 32: 121-125. English translation included.

2014  Conservation, human values and democracy. EMBO Reports, 15: 17-20.  The most important application of science. EMBO Reports, 15: 919-922.  The social utility of science. Collectanea Botanica, 33: 85-90.

2016  Free science under threat. EMBO Reports, 17: 131-135.

2017  The ‘Anthropocene’: neglects, misconceptions and possible futures. EMBO Reports, 18: 1056-1060.  The ‘Anthropocene’ uncovered. Collectanea Botanica, doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2017.v36.008 viewpointviewpoint Beyond us

Is a world without humans possible? Valentí Rull

he potential annihilation of the human author Stephen Baxter’s novel Evolution humankind from Earth. The purpose of this race is a topic that is often relegated (2002), de-evolving into increasingly primi- essay is therefore to approach the topic ration- Tto science fiction. Authors and film- tive species. Recently, however, the idea of a ally; in part because informed opinions need makers seem sometimes gleefully inventive world devoid of humans after a global catas- to be heard in modern societies, and scien- when it comes to eradicating human civili- trophe has also been considered, with more tists should take on this role to avoid the pro- zation: deadly viruses in Terry Gilliam’s or less detailed accounts on the potential liferation of pseudo-scientific ‘truths’. The Twelve Monkeys (1995); nefarious aliens in ecological recovery of the biosphere following is a personal view, its only aim H.G. Wells’s War of the Worlds (1898); sci- (Holmes, 2006; Weisman, 2007). being to stimulate a scientific debate. entific experiments gone wrong in Kurt None of the above—nor any other fic- Vonnegut’s Cat’s Cradle (1963); the degener- tional accounts of how humanity might come few decades ago, predictions of ation of oil-addicted civilization in George to an end—has been taken seriously, in part future scenarios, cataclysmic or Miller’s Mad Max (1979); or a massive envi- because of an apparent lack of sound science A otherwise, were considered unsci- ronmental catastrophe in Roland Emmerich’s underpinning such scenarios (Kilker, 2008; entific because they were speculative and The Day After Tomorrow (2004). The theme Pimm, 2008). Yet, the possible extinction of not testable by scientific methods. Today, that runs throughout all of these is that human- Homo sapiens should not remain the purview science has learned to incorporate the ity, brave and indomitable, struggles onwards of fiction authors; indeed, one could think of future as a common time frame for predic- after the cataclysm; sometimes improving potentially realistic scenarios that one way or tive modelling, driven in part by uncer- or sometimes, as in British science fiction another might lead to the disappearance of tainty about the potential consequences of global climate change and the future developments and applications of genetic engineering. More generally, modern science increasingly uses modelling to generate workable hypotheses—which are ideally calibrated and validated against historical records—that can be tested by using current data and experimental investigations. One of the best examples is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which guides actions in light of the potential consequences of global climate change (Solomon et al, 2007). Similarly, the future of the Earth’s biosphere can now be addressed from a scientific perspective, as predictions about it are able to fulfil the main requirements of modern science: namely, the availability of falsifiable hypotheses and the methods to test them (Popper, 1959).

…the possible extinction of Homo sapiens should not remain

Based on the pictorial message engraved Pioneer plaques. Original plaques designed by L. Salzman Sagan. the purview of fiction authors…

When we think about the future, we usu- he same factors and activities that Further increases in human ally imagine that humans—whom we envis- increase human fitness and persist- fitness and health might, age will look like us—will live in a world Tence are often considered potentially therefore, accelerate the that is more or less different from our own, fatal—on a global level—by catastrophists. depending on the timescale involved. If we They point out that the environmental effects deterioration of biodiversity and contemplate a world without humans, we of our success—pollution, ecological col- the Earth’s carrying capacity usually assume that our demise has resulted lapse and climate change, among others— from a global catastrophe. In other words, might ultimately limit human population unless something very bad happens, we growth. Similarly, the successes of increased the future, we will be able to direct our own imagine that the future should include longevity and reduced morbidity could biological evolution by means of sophisti- humans. However, there is little scientific result in overpopulation, leading to starva- cated technological developments such as support for such a view. In fact, our planet tion, poverty, disease, the exhaustion of nat- nanotechnology, psychopharmacology or has been devoid of humans for almost its ural resources, or war. Further increases in genetic engineering (Hughes, 2008). Others entire existence: Homo sapiens evolved human fitness and health might, therefore, have gone so far as to predict that we will be around 200,000 years ago, which is a mere accelerate the deterioration of biodiversity able to create artificial, synthetic and virtual blink of the eye in terms of the Earth’s own and the Earth’s carrying capacity. This is one organisms (Pearson, 2008), which might 3.5 billion year history (Schopf, 1999; of the reasons—in addition to simple curi- contribute to the problems of overpopula- Tattersall & Schwartz, 2009). osity and the human drive to explore the tion, environmental degradation and the unknown—for space exploration. The hope general collapse of human civilization. If we contemplate a world without is that it might one day be possible to relieve an overpopulated Earth by colonizing other essimistic predictions of an apoca- humans, we usually assume that planets such as Mars (Heppener, 2008). At lyptic end to humanity are not only our demise has resulted from a present, however, insufficient technology Pthe stuff of biblical or science fiction, global catastrophe and economic impediments remain the but are also the central tenet of many futur- main constraints on developing a substan- ist propositions. In the past, it was almost tial space programme. Of course, even if we always imagined that an apocalyptic war Therefore, the question is very real: will were successful in colonizing other planets, would instigate the end of humankind; now- humankind persist or not? There is no this would not immediately solve our cli- adays, some view environmental deteriora- a priori reason to believe that humans will mate and environmental issues, or the way tion and the exhaustion of natural resources fare any better than any of the other spe- in which we exploit resources; it would only as equally terrible menaces, and the present cies in the fossil record that have come and transfer these problems. mercantilist economic system, sustainable gone throughout Earth’s history. From a or not, seems to support these concerns. strictly biological point of view, humans There is no a priori reason to Of course, these dire predictions are are just one ephemeral animal among nothing new. Early futurists, including the many in the history of the biosphere. In believe that humans will fare British biologist J.B.S. Haldane (1892–1964), fact, the conscious or sub-conscious feel- any better than any of the other put their hope in the use of scientific progress ing that we are intrinsically special is species in the fossil record that “for the better” by appealing to human nature founded in the Judaeo-Christian tradition, have come and gone throughout (Haldane, 1927). This so-called techno- although evolutionary theory has already Earth’s history optimistic vision supposed that we could subdued this view to some extent prevent future collapse through scientific (Stoneking, 2008). Nevertheless, humans endeavour. The opposing techno-pessimistic are genuinely biologically and socially dif- Another concern about the future of view held by other scholars of the time, such ferent to other animals. For example, our humans is how evolution might yet change as Bertrand Russell (1872–1970), argued particular socio-cultural evolution has us, if at all. The current debate about the that because science and technology always made us the most successful invading spe- future evolution of humankind has focused benefit the dominant classes, they are insuf- cies, able to transform the environment to on the relative impact of cultural compared ficient to save the world from ruin (Russell, thwart competition from other species and with biological evolution. Since the inven- 1924). The modern equivalent of the techno- to settle in even the most remote areas of tion of agriculture about 12,000 years ago, optimistic view is the idea that technological the planet. Furthermore, the development it has been socio-cultural evolution that developments, especially stem-cell therapy of agriculture coupled with technological has driven human development (Klüwer, and genetic manipulation, might be used for and biomedical development have 2008), and some have even claimed that positive human enhancement. enhanced wellbeing and life expectancy cultural adaptation has replaced genetic However, this path to the future raises to the point where few other species can adaptation in humans. Nevertheless, there concerns about social justice and the further compete with our longevity, and our social is evidence that natural selection is still at degradation of nature. In the present socio- constructs ensure that competition for food work on us, mainly with regard to adap- political context, enhancements would prob- and other resources is regulated through tations to environmental change (Stock, ably only benefit—and be available to—a the concept of trade. In principle, humans 2008). Furthermore, some have argued that small portion of society. In addition, as dis- are more persistent than other species. But we will not remain passive in this process. cussed earlier, anything that increases human this comes at a price. It has been suggested that at some point in fitness also increases our competitiveness

and, therefore, our destructive capacity. This D F HI modern techno-pessimism is fuelled further by concerns about the market economy, which encroaches on many aspects of our lives. This mercantilism—as manifested in the quest for quick profits—is one more expression of humankind’s narrow-mindedness Time and short-sightedness (Hanski, 2008), and it is largely responsible for the accelerating depletion of natural resources and the con- A B C E G comitant deterioration of the environment Phyletic Hybridized Anagenetic Cladogenetic and biodiversity. Hence, in this context, it is doubtful that biomedical and technological improvements will contribute per se to Fig 1 | The four types of extinction discussed in the text. Species that disappear are shown in the lower part a more ‘humane’ world. For that, we need a of the diagram (A, B, C, E, G) and emerging species are in the upper part (D, F, H, I). Extinction events are more ‘humane’ socio-economic system. marked with an asterisk. Such a ‘partnership’ approach to dealing with nature—as opposed to the current ‘ownership’ model adhered to in most developed societies—should be possible Another concern about the future more post-human species by anagenesis or given that human development and conser- of humans is how evolution might cladogenesis would be a natural evolution- vation are not incompatible goals (Bruce, ary phenomenon, leading to our own 2008). It would, however, require signifi- yet change us, if at all bloodless extinction. cant changes to be made to today’s prevail- In the light of the evolutionary frame- ing economic model and the direction of (Fig 1). The most intuitive and commonly work, even if we manage to preserve our technological development. The question is considered mode of extinction is the death planet and its biosphere in a more or less whether the non-destructive coexistence of of the last member of a species, as noted safe condition and if human evolution con- humans and other species could continue above. A second mode is hybridization, tinues, the human nature—in a biological forever if humans themselves keep evolving. whereby two inter-fertile species become sense—might be lost naturally, sooner or Evolutionary theory predicts that humans, extinct because they have produced a new, later. The fossil record is brimming with like any other species, will either evolve into dominant daughter species. The third is so- examples of lineages that have experienced new species and/or will become extinct. called cladogenesis, whereby a species dramatic transformations into different Given the competitive nature and capacity diverges into two or more daughter species morphologies and biological organizations, of humans, a superior post-human species by allopatric speciation, rendering the orig- resulting in the appearance of new species, might eventually dominate our own or other inal extinct (Delord, 2007). The fourth is genera, families, and so on. In fact, this is species, just as Homo sapiens apparently anagenesis, which is the evolutionary mod- ultimately what evolution is about. In terms dominated Homo neanderthalensis around ification of one species into another. of our own phylogeny, the change from 30,000 years ago (Finlayson, 2004). Hybridization, cladogenesis and anagenesis quadruped ancestors into bipedal hominids are also called pseudo-extinction because took only a few million years (Richmond & n addition to being wiped out by cata- part of the original gene pool is still present Jungers, 2008; Tattersall & Schwartz, 2009), strophic events, self-induced or other in the daughter species (van Valen, 1973). so the evolutionary change we might expe- Iwise, the possibility of the ‘non- These four possibilities have been grouped rience during the next, say, 5–10 million catastrophic’ extinction of humankind must into two categories based on the continua- years could similarly lead to a very dif- also be considered. Throughout history, five tion, or not, of the phylogeny after extinc- ferent animal to that which we currently significant mass extinctions have occurred tion. Thus, the fatal death of a species is call ‘human’. Predictions about the nature (Jablonski, 2001), but individual ‘silent’ called phyletic extinction—there are no fur- and characteristics of a future species of extinctions have happened continuously. ther branches in the phylogenetic tree humans, including their intelligence, is a These, coupled with speciation, are the nor- beyond that species—whereas the other fascinating issue but clearly belongs to the mal mode by which biodiversity turnover three are known as non-phyletic extinction realm of fiction and, as such, is beyond occurs and species fade away or evolve. In types, as the branches of the tree continue the scope of this essay. recent history, the extinction of various spe- (Raup & Stanley, 1971). In the case of cies has been commonly associated with the humans, an abrupt, self-induced extinction death of the last individual—as happened would fall into the first category. On a …the evolutionary change we with the traveller pigeon, the Tasmanian wolf less cataclysmic scale, hybridization, for might experience during the or the dodo—with the causes of extinction example, might have accounted for the next, say, 5–10 million years being habitat loss or degradation, environ- partial extinction of the Neanderthals, as mental change, disease or human action. some genetic interchange might have could similarly lead to a very Yet, extinction is a phenomenon that occurred between them and our ancestors different animal to that which can occur through at least four modalities (Stringer, 2002). Finally, the rise of one or we currently call ‘human’

A question that we might consider, how- …as members of the Earth’s life and should therefore be responsible for ever, is: if we are able to modify the natural biosphere, we might feel the future Earth as a whole, especially given course of evolution through technology, will responsible for the future of all that we have been one of the key agents of its we artificially prolong the human condition current shaping. and thus delay our own ‘natural’ evolution or forms of life and should therefore The nature and attributes of an eventual extinction? The potential process of governing be responsible for the future non-human Earth will depend on how it our own evolutionary future through genetic Earth as a whole… arrives at that state—whether by human- manipulation has been called “enhancing induced disasters resulting in the eradica- evolution” (Harris, 2007), and it seems self- biosphere. In this way, the cases discussed tion of humankind, or by evolution, with or evident that the results of such intervention here and others could be simulated to derive without human intervention. Although we will depend on the dominant socio-economic robust hypotheses to be tested by future will not be around to see the final outcome and moral scenarios in which decisions are studies and observations. Such models of these processes, we can at least leave our taken. As cultural changes occur much more ought to be able to simulate the evolutionary thoughts and guesses to future generations rapidly than biological ones (Klüwer, 2008), responses of organisms and biological sys- to provide them with testable hypotheses, if predicting how we might best enhance evo- tems to changing environmental and biotic they still practice science; or at least to make lution is extremely difficult. In the present factors. Moreover, ecological modelling them laugh, if they still have emotions. state of knowledge, we cannot know if such could be used to simulate the effects of biotic procedures could perpetuate our species interactions such as competence, predation Conflict of interest The author declares that he has no conflict more or less unchanged; but, from an evolu- or infectious diseases, as well as their poten- of interest. tionary perspective, this appears to be tial evolutionary consequences. The coupling unlikely. Thus, the old human dream of of both models would then provide potential Acknowledgements immortality—in this context, as a species— scenarios for a future world with or without This paper was written under the auspices of the seems hard to reconcile with evolutionary humans, considering both catastrophic and BBVA Foundation (Biodiversity Conservation and ecological predictions. evolutionary human extinction. The most Program, project BIOCON 2004‑90/05) and the Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain uncertain variable in these models would (project CGL2006‑0097/BOS). o matter what the cause of our be the human capacity to modify the evolu- extinction might be, or the time- tionary process—both our own and that of References frame needed for it to occur, the the biosphere in general—although several Bruce D (2008) How sustainable are we? Facing the N environmental impact of modern society. EMBO idea of a planet without humans is worth outputs could be generated to obtain and Rep 9: S37–S40 considering from a scientific point of view. evaluate a range of potential setups. At this Chan S (2008) Humanity 2.0? Enhancement, Biologically, there is nothing special that moment in time, such a modelling approach evolution and the possible futures of humanity. would either prevent us from going or cause might seem premature, but the effort is worth EMBO Rep 9: S70–S74 us to go extinct. Indeed, we might fall foul making—otherwise, unfounded fantasies Courtillot V (1999) Evolutionary Catastrophes: of a self-induced global catastrophe, a natu- will flourish and non-scientific explanations The Science of Mass Extinctions. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press ral mass extinction event, or simply by silent will take the lead. The aim is not to eradicate Delord J (2007) The nature of extinction. Stud Hist non-catastrophic or non-phyletic individual fiction, but rather to place science and sci- Philos Biol Biomed Sci 38: 656–667 extinction. In any case, we might take some ence fiction in their correct contexts, both Finlayson C (2004) Neanderthals and Modern comfort from the fact that the biosphere socially and professionally. Humans. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press rebounded from the 75% biodiversity loss Haldane JBS (1927) The last judgment, a scientist’s at the Cretaceous–Tertiary boundary 65 mil- t is frequently said that our responsibil- vision of the future of man. In Possible Worlds and lion years ago, and even from the 90% loss ity is to leave a safe, healthy planet to Other Essays, pp 287–312. London, UK: Chatto during the Permian–Triassic mass extinc- our descendants. Of course, this begs the & Windus I Hanski I (2008) The world that became ruined. Our tion 250 million years ago (Courtillot, 1999; question of whom we mean by “our descend- cognitive incapacity to perceive large-scale and Jablonski, 2001). Thus, even after the cata- ants”: our children? Our great great grand- long-term changes is a major obstacle to rational strophic disappearance of humans, the Earth children? The next civilization? The next environmental policies. EMBO Rep 9: would probably enjoy a full biotic recovery. human species? The next species derived S34–S36 To provide firmer ground on which to from humankind, whether it is human or not? Harris J (2007) Enhancing Evolution. Princeton, NJ, USA: Princeton University Press consider these difficult questions about the All of these animals will be our descendants Heppener M (2008) Spaceward ho! The future future of humanity, the lessons learned from and the answer probably depends on our of humans in space. EMBO Rep 9: S4–S12 the fossil record and the available data about degree of selfishness, which is a matter of Holmes B (2006) Imagine earth without people. evolutionary trends in biodiversity should scale. As individuals, we are used to being New Sci 2573: 36–41 be used to model future scenarios for the concerned with the first options listed above Hughes JJ (2008) Back to the future. Contemporary biopolitics in 1920s’ British futurism. 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Klüwer J (2008) The socio-cultural evolution of our Solomon S et al (2007) Climate Change 2007: species. The history and possible future of human The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge, UK: societies and civilizations. EMBO Rep 9: S55–S58 Cambridge University Press Pearson I (2008) The future of life. Creating natural, Stock JT (2008) Are humans still evolving? artificial, synthetic and virtual organisms. EMBO Technological advances and unique biological Rep 9: S75–S77 characteristics allow us to adapt to environmental Pimm SL (2008) Imagine a better world. Nature 448: stress. Has this stopped genetic evolution? EMBO 135–136 Rep 9: S51–S54 Popper KR (1959) The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Stoneking M (2008) Human origins. The molecular New York, NY, USA: Basic Books perspective. EMBO Rep 9: S46–S50 Raup DM, Stanley SM (1971) Principles of Stringer C (2002) Modern human origins: progress Paleontology. New York, NY, USA: W.H. Freeman and prospects. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci Richmond BG, Jungers WL (2008) Orrorin 357: 563–579 tugenensis femoral morphology and the evolution Tattersall I, Schwartz JH (2009) Evolution of the Valentí Rull is head of the Laboratory of of hominin bipedalism. Science 319: 1662–1665 genus Homo. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 37: Palynology and Paleoecology at the Botanic Russell B (1924) Icarus, or The Future of Science. 67–92 Institute of Barcelona, Spain. New York, NY, USA: E.P. Dutton & Co. van Valen L (1973) A new evolutionary law. E-mail: [email protected] Schopf JW (1999) Cradle of Life: The Discovery Evolutionary Theory 1: 1–30 of Earth’s Earliest Fossils. Princeton, NJ, USA: Weisman A (2007) The World Without Us. Published online 16 October 2009 Princeton University Press New York, NY, USA: St Martin’s doi:10.1038/embor.2009.225

©2009 European Molecular Biology Organization EMBO reports VOL 10 | NO 11 | 2009 1195 outlookoutlook The candid approach Scientists should insist on a purely scientific approach to preserving biodiversity Valentí Rull

ustifying scientific research to the public common responses to these questions from and funding agencies is not always an different perspectives—those of ethics, sus- Jeasy task. Policy makers and the public tainability and mercantilism—and proposes frequently ask whether the research is use- an additional ‘candid’ answer. ful, by which they mean whether it is useful to humans. For medical and technological he first justification for research into (M&T) research the answer is obvious: the biodiversity emphasizes the need for work is geared towards improving health, Tpreserving the biosphere because quality of life or economic growth. For less it guarantees the future of humankind applied, or at least less immediately appli- (Rolston, 1996). This strategy did not have cable research, the justification can prove the expected societal effect of garnering harder to explain. As a result, research more support or funding, probably because funding—both public and private—tends the relationship between ecological health to be predominantly funnelled into M&T and personal health is not straightforward. research. Indeed, the mass media and However, the recent realization and accept- the public often implicitly associate sci- ance that humans are responsible for global ence with M&T research; favourite topics warming—several decades after scientists include cancer, AIDS, genetic engineer- discovered this relationship (Weart, 2008)— biosphere just in terms of the goods that it ing, robotics and nanotechnology. Even the and an aggressive media campaign seem provides for human societies (Bruce, 2008). scientific literature is dominated by M&T to have revitalized this argument. Recently, This anthropocentric perspective has been research, which is reflected, for instance, in conservationists have highlighted a more complemented by the proposal to assign ISI’s annual Journal Citation Report: medi- practical reason for supporting and funding a monetary value to natural products, thus cal journals reign supreme in the Impact biodiversity research; one which stresses the fixing a price for each good or service so Factor stakes. ability of ecosystems to provide basic goods it can be managed according to the rules and services, such as food, clean water and of the market (Costanza et al 1997). Thus, …the mercantilist approach could air, wildlife habitats and other benefits (Daily, both society and its official authorities might 1997). In this context, many ecologists understand better the potential impact of lead to the commercialization and ecological research programmes have biodiversity research and conservation, of biodiversity research and focused their efforts to demonstrate that the as well as the need for high-priority fund- biodiversity itself, which is both preservation of biological diversity is essen- ing. However, the mercantilist approach dangerous and scientifically tial for adequate ecosystems and, as a conse- could lead to the commercialization of bio inappropriate… quence, for the services these provide (Isbell diversity research and biodiversity itself, et al 2009; Naeem et al 2009; Palumbi et al which is both dangerous and scientifically 2009). According to this so-called ‘insurance inappropriate, as I will discuss further. By contrast, research into biodiversity hypothesis’, for example, high biodiversity is and conservation is granted a lower status required for ecosystem persistence because rom an ethical—and to some extent and funding priority. Scientists who work it guarantees that some species will be able moral—point of view, we should pre- in fields such as ecology, biodiversity or to fulfil key ecological functions if others Fserve biodiversity simply because conservation are often confronted with disappear (Hummel et al 2009). we should respect nature and naturalness questions about the value of funding and In this way, biodiversity research and (Angermeier, 2000); because nature has an conducting research in these areas, even conservation have become part of the so- intrinsic priceless value (McCauley, 2006); to the extent of asking why we should con- called sustainable development strategy. An and because anthropogenic extinction of serve biodiversity at all. This essay analyses implicit risk of this approach is to value the species is unacceptable (Jachowski & Kesler,

2009). Such arguments are commonly attempts to manage the whole biosphere referred to as ‘intrinsic or inherent value’ only for human benefit. This is unacceptable and fall within the ‘eco-centric’ approach from an ethical point of view—and prob- of Bruce (2008). The concept of intrinsic ably also from an economic one, because or inherent value, however, has been elu- of the enormous cost involved—and might sive and is not sufficient to guide practical be difficult to implement owing to our lack conservation strategies (Justus et al, 2009). of the necessary ecological knowledge. McCauley (2006) pointed out this incom- …the increasingly accepted patibility between the market economy and biodiversity conservation: “If we oversell argument to preserve biodiversity the message that ecosystems are important seems to be human survival, because they provide services, we will have which is easily understood by effectively sold out on nature.” Moreover, society and policy makers the submission of biodiversity research to could be argued that, other than crude oil, market rules would transform researchers many natural services are renewable, but and research institutions into inexpert actors this argument loses its strength in the light Instead, instrumental values, defined as and instruments of the global economy, of the rate at which natural resources are “those considered valuable by valuers” have which is dominated by companies and mar- destroyed compared with how long it takes been proposed as a better tool for managing ket economists. Scientists and institutions them to recover. biodiversity (Justus et al, 2009). The concept adhering to such a market-oriented form Moreover, the global economic system of instrumental value includes considera- of biodiversity research would undoubt- is not robust enough to guarantee the duration of economic aspects but also of others edly be more successful in obtaining fund- bility of any value introduced to it. As the such as beauty, scientific curiosity, or our ing and social recognition in the short term, recent collapse of financial markets demon- obligation to preserve the planet for future but their research would become totally strated, the system is largely unpredictable generations; all of which fall in the ambit of dependent on market needs in the medium and can break down within days as a result the so-called ‘cultural services’ (McCauley, to long term. As a result, the knowledge of a few ‘wrong’ decisions or stock market 2006). Despite these ethical arguments, accumulated, independent of its volume, operations. The lesson from the financial sustainability, either market-based or not, would be incomplete and biased towards crisis is that the laws of the free market do is becoming more and more the domi- dominant economic interests. Some might not necessarily reflect the true value of the nant tendency; therefore, the increasingly even think that such involvement is almost economy, which is dominated by other, accepted argument to preserve biodiversity inevitable, given the worldwide prevalence more obscure and fluctuating interests. seems to be human survival, which is easily of the capitalist market economy. Furthermore, the encroachment of assigning understood by society and policy makers. monetary value to conservation might easily he potential consequences of using promote corruption, which is now seriously the laws and rules of the market to affecting the management of various bio- Tguide biodiversity research and con- diversity hotspots (Sodhi, 2008; Bradshaw servation would be fatal. One example is et al 2009). the over-exploitation of non-renewable resources, such as crude oil. The main con- The potential consequences of cern of the oil industry is not how to manage its extraction in a sustainable way, but how using the laws and rules of the to replace it once exhausted to the point that market to guide biodiversity many oil companies redefine themselves as research and conservation energy companies and conduct research on would be fatal alternative forms of energy production. One of these is the production of biofuels from However, there is a great potential dan- crops grown specifically for that purpose, Unfortunately, the first steps have been ger lurking behind the concept of cultural which directly competes with food produc- taken towards the commercialization of services: within this frame of reference it is tion (Muller, 2009) and can create addi- biodiversity and some scientists are will- reasonable to ask whether we really need tional environmental damage (Laurijssen & ing to serve the highest bidder. Some of the current levels of existing biodiversity Fraaij, 2009). It shows how the inevitable them defend the ‘triage’ option—choosing if the same ecosystem services could be conflict between sustainability based on the which species to preserve and which to let maintained with fewer, well selected, continuity of natural services and mercantil- go—by claiming that biodiversity loss is organisms. It would be useful to know the ism, which is primarily aimed at increasing inevitable given the limited resources for amount and nature of the biodiversity that financial gains, is solved in favour of the lat- conservation (Bottrill et al 2008; 2009). the proponents of this option estimate could ter, and how company interests prevail over This is an unconditional surrender to the be sacrificed for human development, but basic human needs. There is no reason to market and implicitly accepts that some it is difficult to escape the idea that such a believe that the case would be different for biodiversity will disappear owing to insuf- strategy could lead, intentionally or not, to biodiversity once it was commercialized. It ficient funds for conservation. Critics of

the triage option have argued that the cost being based on a flawed anthropocentric for global biodiversity conservation is not conception of nature, it is not the only beyond the current system’s capacity as one. The generation of knowledge—not compared, for example, with the resources just information—is another good reason. spent on space exploration (Balmford Today’s culture and society are the result of et al, 2002). Instead, they have proposed scientific research, and it is the best tool we using a “carbon market” model to finance have with which to face future challenges. conservation (Parr et al, 2009). However, Human civilizations and their social, polit- these are economic arguments too, and ical and economic systems are ephem- illustrate the difficulty of avoiding market eral and have risen and disappeared, but economy, even for those who defend the knowledge has been constantly increas- ‘zero extinction’ option. ing, even during the European Dark Age. n the end, all the reasons analysed here Against this background and to maintain for preserving biodiversity, whether com- here the nature of biodiversity their independence, scientists and institu- Imercial, sustainable, moral, ethical or research and scientific research tions should evaluate seriously the pros candid, are still anthropocentric because Win general are concerned, the and cons before getting involved in the humans assess the value of nature on the ideological independence of scientists is of biodiversity research market. At present, basis of their material and cultural needs. paramount importance to guarantee objec- all options are still open, but the mar- We feel responsible for the fate of humanity. tivity and must be maintained at all costs. ket machinery, once launched, quickly However, we have a greater responsibility. Political, economic or religious forces imposes its own laws. We have no right to absentmindedly—or must not control research; science is the deliberately—destroy what evolution has only method by which humans are able to If the prevailing economic produced over millions of years. This evo- understand nature and it needs no further lutionary argument, although powerful on justification or external context to fulfil order finally takes control of its own, can be reinforced further. Our spe- this role. However, as a social task that is biodiversity and biodiversity cies, like others, is perennial and should supported by public and private invest- research, the only option for not be regarded as dominant forever. We ment, research needs to be explained in candid science is to wait for the should accept that the future Earth could be terms of human utility. In the case of biodi- next Renaissance a planet without humans, not because we versity research, the maintenance of eco- have destroyed ourselves—the only possi- system services for human development bility we seem to have seriously considered is a powerful argument but, in addition to The acquisition of knowledge is a sound so far—but because we have done things and consistent position, but this argu- well; because life on earth has continued ment is often neglected owing to fears of and evolution has progressed to the point being seen as romantic idealists, or politi- that our species as we know it has gone into cal anti-capitalist activists. If the prevailing extinction naturally (Rull, 2009). We are economic order finally takes control of bio- responsible for achieving this future and the diversity and biodiversity research, the only only way to do so is to preserve biodiversity option for candid science is to wait for the as it is. next Renaissance. Meanwhile, however, the Earth’s biodiversity will continue to dis- Concerning the question of why appear at an alarming rate. Governments and public institutions are probably the to preserve biodiversity, a candid main hope if this situation is to be pre- answer would be that “we have no vented. Non-governmental organizations reason to destroy it”. devoted to conservation might also help. Concerning the question of why to preserve biodiversity, a candid answer would be From this discussion, it follows that the that “we have no reason to destroy it”. The adoption of market perspectives to man- long-term persistence of humans on Earth is age biodiversity would accelerate its anni- not necessarily linked to the decline of bio hilation, and the sustainability perspective diversity, unlike the short-term persistence alone would be only palliative and prob- of the present socio-economical model. We ably temporary. Ethics and candidness all know that it is not possible to preserve are therefore necessary ingredients of the biodiversity without changing our standard recipe for the future, but we also need a of life at all levels, but the inertia in main- non-anthropocentric ecological and evo- taining the social status quo is so prevalent lutionary perspective that considers the that we prefer to play the ostrich and dis- biosphere as is and its continuity as the cuss what we call ‘realistic’ options that are primary objective. This is the evolution- not real solutions at all. ary candid approach under which the

right question is not why we should con- conflict of interest Muller A (2009) Sustainable agriculture and the serve biodiversity, but how we should The author declares that he has no conflict production of biomass for energy use. Clim of interest. Change 94: 319–331 change ourselves in order to preserve it. Naeem S, Bunker DE, Hector A, Loreau M, Evolutionary candidness should not be References Perrings C (2009) Biodiversity, Ecosystem confused with the ‘intrinsic value’ or ‘eco- Angermeier PL (2000) The natural imperative Functioning, and Human Wellbeing: An centric’ approaches (Bruce, 2008), which for biological conservation. Conserv Biol 14: Ecological and Economic Perspective. Oxford, 373–381 consider that nature is something sacred UK: Oxford University Press Balmford A et al (2002) Economic reasons for Palumbi SR, Sandifer PA, Allan JD et al (2009) or even divine, and therefore untouchable. conserving wild nature. Science 297: Managing for ocean biodiversity to sustain The candid approach is based on the strict 1174–1180 marine ecosystem services. Frontiers Ecol application of scientific criteria without any Bottrill MC et al (2008) Is conservation triage just Environ 7: 204–211 Trends Ecol Evol religious or pseudoreligious preconceptions. smart decision making? 23: Parr MJ, Bennun L, Boucher T et al (2009) Why we 649–654 should aim for zero extinction? Trends Ecol Evol Bottrill MC et al (2009) Finite conservation funds 24: 181 …the candid approach involves mean triage is unavoidable. Trends Ecol Evol 24: Rolston H (1996) Science, advocacy, human and 183–184 environmental health. Sci Total Environ 184: profound changes to the global Bradshaw CJA, Sodhi NJ, Brook BW (2009) 51–56 socio-economic order and to Tropical turmoil: a biodiversity tragedy in Rull V (2009) Beyond us. Is a world without progress. Front Ecol Environ 7: 79–87 humans possible? EMBO Rep 10: 1191–1195 modern lifestyles and standards; Bruce D (2008) How sustainable are we? Facing Sodhi NS (2008) Tropical biodiversity loss and it is both politically subversive the environmental impact of modern society. people—a brief review. Basic Appl Ecol 9: EMBO Rep 9: S37–S40 93–99 and personally uncomfortable… Costanza R et al (1997) The value of the world’s Weart SR (2008) The Discovery of Global ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature Warming. Cambridge, MA, USA: Harvard 387: 253–260 University Press The candid approach, anthropocentric Daily GC (1997) Nature’s Services: Societal or not, provides more sound and perma- Dependence on Natural Ecosystems. nent arguments for biodiversity research Washington, DC, USA: Island Hummel S, Donovan GH, Spies TA, and conservation than sustainability, mer- Hemstrom MA (2009) Conserving biodiversity cantilism or even human ethics. The main using risk management: hoax or hope? Front difficulty is that the candid approach Ecol Environ 7: 103–109 involves profound changes to the global Isbell FI, Wayne HP, Wisley BJ (2009) Biodiversity, socio-economic order and to modern life- productivity and the temporal stability of productivity: patterns and processes. Ecol Lett styles and standards; it is both politically 12: 443–451 subversive and personally uncomfortable. Jachowski DS, Kesler DC (2009) Allowing It is time for scientists to adopt a definite extinction: should we let species go? Trends Valentí Rull is the head of the Laboratory and honest position on biodiversity based Ecol Evol 24: 180 Justus J, Colyva M, Regan H, Maguire L (2009) of Palynology and Paleoecology, Botanic solely on scientific grounds, beyond any Buying into conservation: intrinsic versus Institute of Barcelona, Spain. social, economic, political, religious or instrumental value. Trends Ecol Evol 24: E-mail: [email protected] personal constraints. Such a candid pos- 187–191 ture is not only the best service we can Laurijssen J, Fraaij APC (2009) Trading biomass Received 26 October 2009; accepted 18 November Clim Change provide to society as science professionals, or GHG emission credits? 94: 2009; published online 11 December 2009 287–317 but also the more suitable way to fulfil our McCauley DJ (2006) Selling out on nature. Nature EMBO reports (2010) 11, 14–17. evolutionary responsibility. 443: 27 doi:10.1038/embor.2009.261

Achieving food security for the future pits production increase against growth control Valentí Rull

ow do we feed the nine billion peo- and the potential long-term consequences will also play a role in changing our diet ple who are projected to inhabit for the environment and mankind. to reduce the consumption of meat and Hthe Earth by 2050? The issue is one dairy products and to develop alternative of serious concern (Ash et al, 2010; Butler, n an article for the Philosophical protein sources (The Royal Society, 2009; 2010), as an increase in food production Transactions of the Royal Society, Sir John Beddington, 2010; Godfray et al, 2010). of up to 40% will be needed to cope with IBeddington, the UK Government’s chief the growing population. In response, many scientific adviser and professor of applied …the whole planet could scientists, politicians and economists have population biology at Imperial College proposed a second ‘green revolution’. London, lists the four main challenges for turn into one giant farm for Their call references the first green revolu- humanity in the twenty-first century as fol- producing food and biofuels, tion of the mid-twentieth century, which lows: to feed nine billion people in a sustain- with little or no wilderness left allowed many developing countries to able way; to cope with increasing demands drastically increase their food production. for clean water; to generate more energy; According to proponents of a new ‘global and to do all of this while mitigating and Together, these goals aim to achieve so- greener revolution’ (GGR), it will require adapting to climate change (Beddington, called sustainable intensification: producing an extensive transformation of agriculture 2010). Science will play a crucial role in this more food from a given area while reducing to increase production and improve qual- endeavour, provided the necessary invest- the environmental impact (Godfray et al, ity in an equitable and sustainable manner ments are being made. 2010). This is a considerable challenge, rest- without compromising the environment The kinds of advances in science that the ing on the hope that ‘greener’ innovations— (Godfray et al, 2010). Science and techno world requires are far reaching and various. mostly based on molecular biology and logy will be fundamental to achieving the Plant science will need to improve exist- genetic manipulations of plants and farm goals of enhancing crop efficiency and food ing crops by breeding or genetic modifi animals—will be environmentally safer, quality, as well as developing new protein cation to increase photosynthetic efficiency, although this is not a straightforward path in sources (Beddington, 2010). reduce the need for fertilizers, and develop many cases. new methods of pest, disease and weed …further analysis reveals that control. Agricultural science and farmers cale matters in this endeavour, in terms need to develop sustainable livestock farm- of both space and time. Concerning a GGR is not as charitable as it ing that reduces the emission of greenhouse Sspace, the amount of land and sea first appears; in fact, it could gases, notably methane. Fisheries and surface needed to produce food for nine bil- lead to undesired and even aquaculture—high priorities for future food lion people will obviously be much larger disastrous consequences security—will require scientific knowledge than at present, any scientific progress and technological innovations to avoid notwithstanding. As such, given time, the over-fishing, to increase productivity and to whole planet could turn into one giant farm At a glance, such a philanthropic pro- deal with climate change and ocean acidifi- for producing food and biofuels, with lit- posal might seem the right thing to do, but cation. Engineers will need to develop tools tle or no wilderness left. For defenders of further analysis reveals that a GGR is not as such as global positioning system-based the ownership approach (Bruce, 2008), for charitable as it first appears; in fact, it could fertilizing or watering systems and remote whom the Earth is ours to be exploited at lead to undesired and even disastrous conse- sensors to optimize the use of resources in our convenience, this vision might not be quences. This essay is therefore intended as a agriculture. Nanotechnologies, genomics disturbing; nevertheless, the consequences warning to scientists to think critically before and electronics can be useful for improving would be catastrophic, not least because signing up to a GRR: consider carefully disease diagnostics, the delivery of pesti- this approach gives no consideration to a the political, social and economic forces cides, fertilizers and water, or for monitoring sustainable future beyond this century. It is that would benefit from such a revolution and managing soil quality. Finally, science important to bear in mind that the GGR is

proposed as a means to cope with human n this context, the issue of equity or of growing more food, but also of creating population growth during the next 40 years intra-generational social justice— social equity, which requires economic and only. This might seem a long-term view from Idespite the fact that it is mentioned as political action. today’s perspective (Godfray et al, 2010), a premise in almost all proposals on food Future population growth and the cor- but it barely considers even the next two security—is rarely addressed. Almost responding demand for more food there- generations. A true long-term view needs everyone agrees that wealth and health fore support the current capitalistic model, to embrace a far more extended timeframe should be equitably distributed throughout which is based on economic growth and and consider our great-grandchildren and the world, but there are no firm propos- unequal wealth distribution. A GGR would the world they might live in. als on how to achieve this goal and little be subject to this growth model; in other If a GGR were a resounding success, progress has been made. It is a political words, capitalism, not humanity, needs most humans living beyond 2050 would problem that requires a political solution, a GGR. Scientists should be aware of this be fed and healthy, but they would inherit but international organizations—notably and consider whether a GGR is really the a planetary farm with little wilderness and the United Nations (UN) and its sub best option from both a professional and biodiversity. This, together with the possi- ordinate bodies—have not been able to personal point of view, as science should bility of notably extending life expectancy tackle it, and there is little hope that they serve humanity and Earth, not any parti (Lucke et al, 2010) and the conviction that will in the current political climate. cular social, religious, ideological, politi- the next GGR will be always possible—as cal or economic system (Rull, 2010). it has been in the past—will probably exa As the Earth’s carrying capacity cerbate population growth rates and the hose who prefer a more sustainable demand for another even-greener revolu- is finite […], a GGR would lead path for future development might tion. In fact, the human population could to vanishing wilderness, resource Tconsider demand reduction—an reach around 14 billion people by 2100 at exhaustion and, eventually, option to avoid future food scarcity that current growth rates (FAO, 2006) and the societal collapse is rarely considered (Westing, 2010). For number might be even higher if the pro- their part, economists and politicians posed GGR succeeds. should also develop and implement alter- The inequality prevalent in the world native economic models that aim for a A true long-term view needs to serves the economic interest of the rich- sustainable future for both humans and est nations through the near-ubiquitous nature. The alternative—trying to recon- embrace a far more extended capitalist model, which equates develop- cile economic growth, social justice and timeframe and consider our ment with increasing wealth, measured environmental safety—is akin to putting great-grandchildren and the as the gross domestic product (GDP) of a a square peg into a round hole (Lawn, world they might live in country. Increasing globalization—with 2010). In his 2008 book, The Bridge at the recent demise of the socialist model— the Edge of the World, the environmental has promoted the export of the capitalist advocate James Speth laments that mod- As the Earth’s carrying capacity is model to almost every country. As a result, ern capitalism is already out of control finite (Hueting, 2010; Pelletier, 2010), a and through the influence of organizations and that “growth is the enemy of envi- GGR would lead to vanishing wilderness, such as the World Trade Organization, the ronment. Economy and environment resource exhaustion and, eventually, soci- International Monetary Fund and the World remain in collision” (Speth, 2009). etal collapse. According to the latest esti- Bank, capitalism has become the domi- mates, we are already beyond the Earth’s nant economic model. Other issues such Humanity has […] organized carrying capacity and we would need as international law, international security, around 1.2 Earths to support just the cur- economic development, social progress itself in such a way that different rent population growth rate (WWF, 2008). and human rights are subject to the politi- nations, ideologies, races, social In addition to resource exhaustion, another cal and economic interests of the richest classes and so on, compete substantial problem of continued growth is economies. Social and environmental poli- with each as though they were the management of the waste generated by cies remain subordinate to capitalist con- ‘cultural species’ humankind, which at present is estimated cerns at both the local and regional scale to be around 30–40% of the food produced (Pelletier, 2010). The inequality thus created (Godfray et al, 2010). This mountain of refuse is the cause of starvation and malnutrition There are alternative economic models is likely to increase by orders of magnitude in developing countries. Before 2005, that recognize ecological limits to human in the coming decades (Pelletier, 2010). more than 850 million people were under- development and emphasize social equity. Therefore, a GGR might be useful, at best, nourished. This number then increased by The first of these proposes a steady-state to cope with the near-term requirements of 75 million in only 2 years, owing mainly economy: one that has stopped growing hungry humanity—the next two generations to the rise of wheat and maize prices for in terms of GDP, but continues to improve or so—but it is unsustainable in the medium market reasons (Beddington, 2010). Today, quality of life and is maintained by an to long term. Still, some solution is needed, hunger is not only a problem of over ecologically sustainable rate of resource as current and prognosticated starvation is population, but to a great extent, also of throughput and a constant human popula- ethically unacceptable and might lead to intra-generational injustice. This means tion (Kerschner, 2010; Lawn, 2010). The sec- social conflict and war. that fighting starvation is a matter not only ond is a sustainable de-growth model that

has been defined as “an equitable down- …capitalism is a successful Among the different meanings of sustain- scaling of production and consumption that strategy with strong ability, ecological economics defends a so- increases human well-being and enhances selective value to increase called strong sustainability (Munda, 1997). ecological conditions at the local and This is in contrast to weak sustainability, global level, in the short and long term” evolutionary fitness which assumes an abundance of natural (Schneider et al, 2010). The paradigm is resources and that technological progress that human progress without economic involves mainly components that require can increase the productivity of natural growth is possible; it has been shown large-scale, resource-intensive production capital faster than it is being depleted. Weak repeatedly that GDP per capita does not and socio-political and lifestyle changes sustainability could be considered a moder- correlate with overall happiness above a (Schneider et al, 2010). Steady-state and ate version of the planetary ownership view certain level of satisfying people’s basic de-growth models are based on the prin- (Bruce, 2008). By contrast, strong sustain- needs (Layard, 2010). According to these ciple of ecological economics, which ability argues that natural capital—which proposals, rich nations would need to emphasizes the importance of the inter- provides raw materials for production start the transition to a steady-state econ- actions between the environment and the and consumption, assimilates the result- omy through the reduction of GDP or de- economy, and of biophysical laws and con- ing waste products, and provides amenity growth within the next 5 years, and poor strains to human development (Costanza services and basic life-support functions nations could take 20–40 years to make et al, 1997; Victor, 2010). Ecological eco- on which human life depends—is largely the transition in order to ensure a sustain- nomics is based on simple premises: the non-substitutable (Neumayer, 2003; Dietz able future. As many poor nations have laws of thermodynamics, which state that & Neumayer, 2007). The idea behind strong the highest population growth rates, a the amount of energy in a closed system sustainability is to strike a balance between first step should be to implement suitable is constant and that any transformation nature intervention and conservation—that controls to stabilize their populations with degrades usable energy into entropy. All is, the stewardship approach described by support from rich countries. economic activities therefore deplete the Bruce (2008). Despite its concern for nature, The defenders of de-growth emphasize available stock of usable energy and pro- the idea of strong sustainability is still that this process is not the same as reces- duce entropic waste; a closed system such anthropocentric, as the primary objective sion or depression—there should be no as the Earth has a limited capacity to sup- is human survival and welfare. Therefore, social or quality of life deterioration—nor ply energy and material resources and strong sustainability could be viewed sim- does it promote a return to a fictitious pre- to absorb the associated entropic waste ply as a wiser form of planetary ownership industrial pastoral past. GDP reduction (Pelletier, 2010). than weak sustainability.

lthough steady-state and de-growth economic growth should include effective on reducing or avoiding anthropocentrism, are interesting and promising pro- population control in order to increment per and limiting or eliminating the prevalence of Aposals to meet the problem of food capita income and to increase social and the market economy (Rull, 2010). Economic security, there are some concerns; namely, individual well-being. To make such growth crises such as the present one are excellent the considerable changes required of socio- sustainable, it would still require a GGR to opportunities for questioning the dominant political organizations and lifestyles, the increase food production and reduce the capitalist model (Schneider et al, 2010; adherence to an intrinsically anthropo degradation of nature. Johns, 2010). Now is the time for economic centric concept of sustainability, and the creativity and political will. lack of a consolidated programme to realize orldwide social justice is a com- these ideas. plex issue that is beyond the …molecular research focused on Indeed, affluent democratic societies scope of this article, but some W food improvement is justified, might be highly resistant to the neces- ideas are pertinent in this context. Perhaps sary changes in lifestyle and consumption. our lack of a species consciousness is a but its contribution to either A reduction of material living standards main obstacle to attaining goals such as development model depends […] and consumption in industrialized coun- intra-generational justice, the eradication of on social and political interests tries would probably cause feelings of hunger, sustainable development and nature loss (Matthey, 2010). Few politicians or conservation—all of which are apparently political parties with aspirations to govern- desired by most people. Humanity has won In the context of GGR, scientific research ment would be willing to defend such an its battles against its competitors—other vio- and technological development are parts unpopular proposal. Another obstacle in lent, omnivorous species—but has organized of the so-called sustainable intensification Western democratic systems is the short itself in such a way that different nations, to produce more food. In the steady-state duration of each government, which is ideologies, races, social classes and so on, or de-growth models, science and techno usually 4–5 years. Most governments are compete with each as though they were logy are tools to reduce the land needed therefore reluctant to address problems that ‘cultural species’. In this context, capitalism to produce a given amount of food. The require large-scale, long-term changes. The is a successful strategy with strong selec- key is the big picture; molecular research problem is even more serious given that tive value to increase evolutionary fitness. focused on food improvement is justified, international organizations such as the UN, Some anthropologists believe that we are but its contribution to either development which were created specifically to meet not yet humans, as we are still too attached model depends—as do most, if not all, sci- such global challenges, remain subject to to ancestral primate values such as selfish- entific contributions—on social and politi- political and economic interests of the richer ness, territoriality and violence (Carbonell & cal interests. In this regard, the scientific and countries and therefore powerless to imple- Sala, 2001). According to the same authors, technological developments proposed in ment changes in such nations. Some have the necessary species consciousness will the context of a GGR, such as crop improve- therefore proposed the creation of a new emerge from altruism and the socialization ment and protection, sustainable livestock World Environmental Organization with the of knowledge (Carbonell, 2007). Apart from farming, fishing and aquaculture improve- teeth and authority to legislate and enforce the manifest ownership attitude of these ment, mechanization, engineering, nano compliance (Pelletier, 2010). anthropologists—whose ultimate aim is to technology and diet changes, should be replace the natural order with human organ- encouraged anyway, as these can contribute Economic crises such as the ization of Earth—their concept of a global greatly to more efficient and hopefully safer human species consciousness and how to food production practices in the future. present one are excellent attain it could be interesting for its use as a opportunities for questioning tool to address sustainable development n summary, while global capitalism the dominant capitalist model… under ecological economics principles. needs a GGR to continue along its The formulation of ideas to achieve Iunsustainable path, there are alternative steady-state and de-growth economies is models of human development that accept The problem of acceptance might be still in progress, but some clues to a solution and address the biophysical constraints even worse in developing nations. The prom- can already be seen. For example, Lawn on economic and population growth on ise of capitalism has created expectations of (2010) offers some macroeconomic consi Earth. Some steady-state and de-growth wealth and consumption in these countries derations on how governments can regulate alternatives have been proposed, based on that people would be asked to renounce the private sector to facilitate the transition the emerging discipline of ecological eco even before they had had a chance to enjoy to a steady-state economy. Another interest- nomics, but these would require a political them. Thus, population control is not suffi- ing proposal is to reduce the dependence on and societal revolution, and a reassessment cient, as most humans also need more food, markets and to develop alternative political of the role of the market economy and true better health and better living conditions. To and economic infrastructures with different nature conservation. However, the basic mitigate this problem it has been proposed values (Latouche, 2010). Steady-state and principles of ecological economics seem that developed countries should switch to de-growth proposals are encouraging mani- potentially useful if we are to avoid a suc- a steady-state economy now, thereby leav- festations of the interest of certain economic cession of GGRs that exhaust the Earth’s ing space for growth in the developing sectors to develop credible and viable alter- resources. The acceptance of those princi- nations as a sign of intra-generational social natives to uncontrolled growth, but more ples could represent a first step towards a justice (Kerschner, 2010). Of course, such options are needed with special emphasis better world.

It is beyond all doubt that scientists Dietz S, Neumayer E (2007) Weak and strong failure of contemporary global environmental defending a GGR have good intentions. sustainability in the SEEA: concepts and governance. Glob Environ Change 20: 220–228 measurement. Ecol Econ 61: 617–626 Rull V (2010) The candid approach. EMBO Rep 11: But this should be done in a different sce- FAO (2006) World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050. 14–17 nario than the utopia of unlimited growth. Prospects for Food, Nutrition, Agriculture and Schneider F, Kallis G, Martinez-Alier J (2010) Crisis Otherwise, politicians, stakeholders and Major Commodity Groups. Rome, Italy: Food or opportuniy? Economic degrowth for social the public in general might get a wrong and Agriculture Organization of the United equity and ecological sustainability. Introduction idea of what is considered right from a sci- Nations to this special issue. J Clean Prod 18: 511–518 Godfray JCJ et al (2010) Food security: the Speth JG (2009) The Bridge at the Edge of the entific point of view and, what is worse, challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science World. Capitalsim, the Environment, and Crossing they might lose confidence in science and 327: 812–818 from Crisis to Sustainability. New Haven, CT, its practitioners. Hueting R (2010) Why environmental USA: Yale University Press sustainability can most probably not be attained The Royal Society (2009) Reaping the Benefits: CONFLICT OF INTEREST with growth production. J Clean Prod 18: Science and the Sustainable Intensification of 525–530 Global Agriculture. London, UK: The Royal Society The author declares that he has no conflict Johns D (2010) Adapting human societies to Victor PA (2010) Ecological economics and of interest. conservation. Cons Biol 24: 641–643 economic growth. Ann NY Acad Sci 1185: Kerschner C (2010) Economic de-growth vs. 237–245 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS steady-state economy. J Clean Prod 18: 544–551 Westing AH (2010) Food security: population This essay has been written under the auspices of Latouche S (2010) Degrowth. J Clean Prod 18: controls. Science 328: 169 projects CGL07069/BOS, funded by the Spanish 519–522 WWF (2008) Living Planet Report. Gland, Ministry of Science and Innovation, and BIOCON Lawn P (2010) Facilitating the transition to a Switzerland: WWF 08‑031, funded by the BBVA Foundation. steady-state economy: some macroeconomic fundamentals. Ecol Econ 69: 931–936 REFERENCES Layard R (2010) Measuring subjective well-being. Ash C, Jasny BR, Malakoff DA, Sugden AM (2010) Science 327: 534–535 Feeding the future. Science 329: 97 Lucke JC, Herbert D, Partridge B, Hall WD Beddington J (2010) Food security. Contributions (2010) Anticipating the use of life extension from science to a new greener revlution. Phil technologies. EMBO Rep 11: 334–338 Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 365: 61–71 Matthey A (2010) Less is more: the influence of Bruce D (2008) How sustainable are we? EMBO aspirations and priming on well-being. J Clean Rep 9 (Suppl): S37–S40 Prod 18: 567–570 Butler D (2010) What it will take to feed the world. Munda G (1997) Environmental economics, Nature 464: 969 ecological economics, and the concept of Carbonell E (2007) El Naixement d’una Nova sustainable development. Environ Values 6: Valentí Rull is at the Botanical Institute of Consciència. Barcelona, Spain: Ara Llibres 213–233 Barcelona (CSIC-ICUB), Barcelona, Spain. Carbonell E, Sala R (2001) Encara No Som Neumayer E (2003) Weak Versus Strong E‑mail: [email protected] Humans. Barcelona, Spain: Editorial Empúries Sustainability: Exploring the Limits of Two Costanza R, Cumberland J, Daly H, Goodland R, Opposing Paradigms (2nd edn). Cheltenham, Received 29 April 2010; accepted 22 July 2010; published online 13 August 2010 Norgaard R (1997) An Introduction to UK: Edward Elgar Ecological Economics. Boca Raton, FL, USA: Pelletier N (2010) Of laws and limits: an ecological EMBO reports (2010) 11, 659–663; St Lucie economic perspective on redressing the doi:10.1038/embor.2010.116

Stateless The iron in the After the societies mussel’s grip Maule quake 175 180 181 LETTERS I BOOKS I POLICY FORUM I EDUCATION FORUM I PERSPECTIVES LETTERS

edited by Jennifer Sills

Food Security: Population Controls the Perspective by G. Ejeta (“African green revolution needn’t be a mirage,” p. 831)—that THE SPECIAL SECTION ON FOOD SECURITY (12 FEBRUARY, P. 797) PRESENTS VARIOUS TECHNO- combine to pervert incentives, render neces- logical ﬁ xes to address the problem of sustainably and equitably feeding the 9 billion humans sary inputs unavailable, defeat the best efforts now projected for 2050. However, population controls are not mentioned as a possible strategy. of dedicated extension agents, and generally Suggestions for reducing demand are essentially limited to eating less meat and more insects, as encourage individual farmers to retreat into well as establishing good governance and eliminating pervasive worldwide corruption. Why not autarchy. make reduced world population a central part of the proposed mix of solutions for the future? We have nothing against promising tech- ARTHUR H. WESTING nology. We remain, however, incorrigible real-

Westing Associates in Environment, Security, and Education, Putney, VT 05346, USA. E-mail: [email protected] ists when it comes to the inevitable optimism on April 8, 2010 that offers up the latest technical solution to Editor’s Note: We received a number of thoughtful letters on this point. You can read them online complex policy and organizational settings at www.sciencemag.org/cgi/eletters/328/5975/169-b. JENNIFER SILLS and circumstances. DANIEL W. BROMLEY Professor Emeritus, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI Food Security: Green about any other scientiﬁ c endeavor. A green 53706, USA. E-mail: [email protected] revolution is only needed if the current global Revolution Drawbacks economy and mode of development must be www.sciencemag.org maintained. Food Security: Crop AS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL SECTION ON FOOD VALENTÍ RULL Species Diversity Security (12 February, p. 797), the process of Palynology and Paleoecology Laboratory, Botanical Insti- increasing food production and improving its tute of Barcelona, 08038 Barcelona, Spain. E-mail: vrull@ THE SPECIAL SECTION ON FOOD SECURITY (12 quality to sustain population growth without ibb.csic.es February, p. 797) did not consider the value compromising environmental safety has been Reference of crop species diversity. It is agronomically, 1. J. Beddington, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 365, 61 (2010).

called a global green revolution. Science and ecologically, nutritionally, and economically Downloaded from technology are supposed to play a key role in risky and unsustainable to rely almost exclu- this revolution by enhancing crop effi ciency sively on a handful of major crops to provide and food quality, as well as developing alter- Food Security: Beyond food for the world’s projected 9 billion people native protein sources (1). A successful green Technology by 2050. Indeed, this approach may have been revolution, however, will likely maintain or partially responsible for the failure of the green exacerbate the current rates of population THE AUTHORS OF THE SPECIAL SECTION ON revolution in much of Africa. growth, eventually leading to resource exhaus- Food Security (12 February, p. 797) make a Calls for improvement of major crops tion. Scientists should think critically about plausible case that feeding a hungry world (described in M. Tester and P. Langridge’s the green revolution option, just as they would requires “rethinking agriculture.” Unfortunately, the advocacy on display Letters to the Editor here implies that technological solutions—any technological solutions— Letters (~300 words) discuss material published are not only necessary but suffi cient. Science in in the previous 3 months or issues of This would be a serious mistake. general interest. They can be submitted through the Web (www.submit2science.org) or by regular Those of us engaged “on the mail (1200 New York Ave., NW, Washington, DC ground” in Africa and elsewhere know 20005, USA). Letters are not acknowledged upon very well that the binding constraint receipt, nor are authors generally consulted before on a viable food system is not defi - publication. Whether published in full or in part, cient technology but the institutional letters are subject to editing for clarity and space. (policy) and organizational (bureau-

CREDIT: KRISTINA STEFANOVA/USAID CREDIT: cratic) incoherencies—touched on in

www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOL 328 9 APRIL 2010 169 Published by AAAS Collectanea Botanica (Barcelona) vol. 29 (2010): 103-109 ISSN: 0010-0730 doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2010.v29.011

El mito del desarrollo sostenible

V. RULL

Institut Botànic de Barcelona (CSIC-ICUB), Psg. del Migdia s/n., 08038 Barcelona, Spain

E-mail: [email protected]

Este ensayo utiliza conceptos y argumentos desarro- en realidad no lo son; el objetivo real es preservar llados en análisis previos (Rull, 2009, 2010a, b, c) la Biosfera terrestre para que la Humanidad pueda para defender que el llamado desarrollo sostenible seguir viviendo en ella, de manera que el amor por no sólo no es la mejor opción para la conservación la Tierra es función de la supervivencia humana, lo de la Naturaleza, sino que es inviable, en términos que convierte estos argumentos en esencialmente ecológicos, económicos e incluso físicos. En pocas filantrópicos. palabras: Es un mito. En realidad, se trata de un La filantropía se considera con frecuencia un bien llamamiento a la reflexión, antes de adoptar ciertas supremo para la Humanidad y una cualidad necesaria posturas personales y/o profesionales, consideradas para un mundo mejor (Stewart, 2000). El concepto implícitamente como “políticamente correctas” (o de sostenibilidad, o desarrollo sostenible, es intrín- de moda, que viene a ser lo mismo), frente al pro- secamente antropocéntrico, ya que su objetivo es la blema del progreso humano y la conservación de utilización de los recursos naturales, también llamados la Naturaleza. Este escrito debe considerarse como servicios ecológicos (ecological services), de una una opinión personal, cuyo objetivo es promover forma racional, de manera que no se agoten y puedan la discusión. seguir siendo usados tanto por nosotros como por futuras generaciones (WCDE, 1987). Idealmente, el Un concepto antropocéntrico desarrollo sostenible implica la búsqueda simultánea de la prosperidad económica, la calidad ambiental Según las consignas de las organizaciones conser- y la equidad social (Elkington, 2002). Desde una vacionistas, las propuestas de conservación parecen perspectiva antropocéntrica, las prácticas llamadas incluir tanto a la Humanidad como a la Naturaleza. sostenibles se consideran correctas porque son bene- Es frecuente leer expresiones como por ejemplo: ficiosas para los humanos, mientras que todo lo que “proteger la Naturaleza para nosotros y las futuras no vaya en ese sentido se califica, peyorativamente, generaciones” (The Nature Conservancy; http://www. de insostenible. Tanto es así, que la sostenibilidad se nature.org/), “construir un futuro donde la gente ha convertido en un paradigma de la conservación viva en armonía con la Naturaleza” (World Wildlife y el uso de esta palabra parece suficiente como para Foundation; http://www.wwf.org/), “balancear las garantizar la conservación de la Naturaleza. Des- necesidades de la gente con las necesidades del afortunadamente, el calificativo “sostenible” lleva planeta que nos mantiene” (International Union for el camino de convertirse en una palabra puramente Conservation of Nature; http://www.iucn.org/), por retórica y carente de significado, ya que es utilizada citar sólo algunas. Así, los argumentos conservacio- por cualquier actor social, independientemente de su nistas parecen ser a la vez filantrópicos (amor por la función y orientación socio-política, y también de sus Humanidad) y filotelúricos (amor por la Tierra). Pero respectivas intenciones. 104 V. Rull

La conservación en la práctica lo que se ha dado en llamar el “mundo real”, en el cual el objetivo principal (es decir, el cambio El llamado desarrollo sostenible depende en gran socio-económico supuestamente necesario para un medida de un funcionamiento ecológico adecuado desarrollo sostenible) parece haberse diluido en de los sistemas naturales, que es la única forma de una multitud de problemas particulares de conser- asegurar la continuidad de los servicios ecológicos vación que resolver. Es cierto que todos estos casos (Dasgupta, 2010). Desde una perspectiva ecológica, requieren de una solución adecuada, muchas veces la sostenibilidad se ha asociado al mantenimiento de urgente, y que la necesidad de un enfoque conser- algunas propiedades clave de los ecosistemas, como vacionista más local es ampliamente reconocido en por ejemplo la biodiversidad. En efecto, una elevada la actualidad, sobre todo en relación con el cambio biodiversidad parece ser necesaria para mantener climático (Power & Chapin, 2009); pero el contexto las múltiples funciones y servicios ecológicos en un general, incluyendo los aspectos socio-económicos, mundo cambiante como el nuestro (Duffy, 2009). no deben caer en el olvido. Por lo tanto, la conservación de la biodiversidad es Otro problema es la forma en que se pretende vital para la sostenibilidad, aunque todavía es difícil llegar al desarrollo sostenible. En la actualidad, llegar a un acuerdo de cómo abordarla. Mientras se hace mucho énfasis en la vía de la negociación unos defienden la denominada “extinción cero” con los representantes del “mundo real” (políticos, (zero extinction) (Parr et al., 2009), otros piensan economistas, etc.), sin ningún éxito. Se dice con que la extinción de muchas especies es inevitable y frecuencia que esto se debe a problemas de comuni- proponen la “conservación selectiva” (conservation cación y se recomienda a los científicos una mayor triage) para un uso eficiente de los pocos recursos implicación en la política y la divulgación pública disponibles (Bottrill et al., 2008). Sea como fuere, (Orr, 2009). La negociación con los promotores desde el punto de vista del desarrollo sostenible, la del actual modelo insostenible es una pérdida de idea de una Naturaleza domesticada parece ser in- tiempo y energía, como se ha demostrado repe- evitable (Kareiva et al., 2007) y conlleva una buena tidamente (Kyoto, Copenhagen,…). Hay que ser dosis de lo que se ha dado en llamar “administración muy iluso para pretender que los representantes planetaria” (planetary stewardship) (Bruce, 2008). del sistema establecido renunciarán al modelo Una idea básica de las propuestas conservacio- que les ha llevado donde están, en una mesa de nistas actuales es la posibilidad de armonizar la negociación. Muy al contrario, lo más probable continuidad y el bienestar de la Humanidad con que, en el marco de las negociaciones, muchos la conservación de la Naturaleza, lo que también científicos se vean inesperadamente atrapados en se ha denominado el “enfoque compartido” (part- el sistema que tratan de cambiar (Rull, 2010a). nership approach) (Bruce, 2008). Para ello, parece Un buen ejemplo es la tendencia actual de asignar esencial un cambio sustancial en el modelo actual valor monetario a la biodiversidad y los servicios de desarrollo humano (Ehrlich, 2009). De eso pa- ecológicos, y el uso del modelo económico de rece tratarse la sostenibilidad. Sin embargo, en la mercado para administrarlos (p. ej. Redford & práctica, la mayoría de esfuerzos conservacionistas Adams, 2009; Sukhdev, 2009), lo cual puede ser se dirigen a minimizar las consecuencias del con- fatal para la Biosfera. tinuo crecimiento económico y poblacional sobre La segunda recomendación, la comunicación la Biosfera, como por ejemplo, la contaminación, directa entre científicos y sociedad, es mucho la deforestación o la acumulación de residuos. Así, más realista y prometedora. En la actualidad, esta la conservación se ha convertido en una actividad comunicación está en manos de los periodistas y paliativa (limitada a vigilar que no se sobrepasen los medios de masas (mass media), lo cual tiene unos umbrales de deterioro arbitrarios que se con- desventajas evidentes, como por ejemplo la carencia sideran “aceptables” o “tolerables”) dependiente de un bagaje científico adecuado para evaluar la en gran medida del sistema económico global –el realidad, su conocida tendencia al sensacionalismo supercapitalismo, basado en los principios capitalis- o el hecho de que tanto ellos como sus compañías tas de la economía de mercado y los incentivos al forman parte del juego político-económico, que consumo– que, en definitiva, es quien proporciona en definitiva controla el flujo de información y los medios necesarios para su actuación. Esto es sus contenidos. La obligación de los científicos es

Collectanea Botanica vol. 29 (2010): 103-109, ISSN: 0010-0730, doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2010.v29.011 El mito del desarrollo sostenible 105 cambiar la mentalidad de la sociedad desde abajo, dera la equidad social). La pregunta clave es si para lograr el deseado cambio social. Por ejemplo, la la Humanidad permanecerá para siempre o no. A sociedad es muy poco consciente de la trascendencia pesar de que algunos proclaman que la evolución que puede tener de la pérdida de biodiversidad y cultural ya ha reemplazado a la evolución genética su impacto, no sólo a nivel global, sino también en los humanos, las evidencias apuntan hacia la sobre sus propias vidas, incluyendo los aspectos continuidad de la selección natural, sobre todo que pueden afectar la propia salud i bienestar par- en relación con los cambios ambientales (Rull, ticulares (Power & Chapin, 2009; Money, 2010). 2009). Los humanos no somos necesariamente la La comunicación directa entre ciencia y sociedad última palabra en evolución y el futuro puede ser es un componente esencial de cambio, que debe muy diferente al mundo tal como lo conocemos. ser activa e independientemente perseguida por los Tarde o temprano, con la continuidad de la evo- científicos (Curry, 2009; Johns, 2009). Si bien es lución, el Sistema Tierra impondrá sus leyes y el cierto que este cambio de mentalidad requiere de mundo volverá a estar desprovisto de humanos, no más tiempo que otras posibilidades, también lo es necesariamente como consecuencia de un colapso que sus resultados serían mucho más consistentes catastrófico (autoinducido o no), sino como la con- y duraderos. secuencia lógica de extinción por causas naturales (Rull, 2009). Desde un punto de vista estrictamente El futuro de la Tierra antropocéntrico, con el futuro del hombre como única preocupación, la preservación de la Natura- Según Lozano (2008), los modelos conceptuales leza más allá de ese punto carece de interés. Pero de desarrollo sostenible están normalmente cen- el destino de la Naturaleza será totalmente diferente trados en las actividades humanas contemporáneas si nuestro legado es una Biosfera “sana” y biodi- y raramente tienen en cuenta el factor tiempo, versa o si, por el contrario, seguimos alimentando por lo que no consideran ni la continuidad ni las el empobrecimiento biótico actual, que algunos ya interacciones entre los procesos a corto y a largo han calificado como “la sexta extinción” (Thomas, plazo. Para situar la conservación de la Natura- 2007). Por lo tanto, somos responsables del futuro leza en una perspectiva temporal adecuada, hace de la Tierra, también a largo plazo. falta una visión evolutiva (Willis et al., 2007). En ¿Por qué debemos preocuparnos por un futuro este contexto, no debemos olvidar que la Tierra planeta sin humanos? Desde un punto de vista fi- ha estado desprovista de humanos durante prác- lantrópico, no hay ninguna razón; pero desde una ticamente toda su historia. Hasta la aparición del perspectiva filotelúrica merece la pena considerarlo. Homo sapiens, hace unos 200.000 años (Tattersall Todo depende del grado de egoísmo evolutivo que & Schwartz, 2009), ninguna especie había estado queramos utilizar. No somos responsables solamente tan ampliamente distribuida ni había tenido tanta por las generaciones humanas futuras, también lo influencia sobre el Planeta. Anteriormente, las somos por cualquier ser vivo, humano o no, que variaciones de biodiversidad se producían como pueda derivar evolutivamente de nosotros (Rull, consecuencia del curso natural de la evolución y 2009). En ese sentido, no tenemos derecho a negar los patrones de extinción eran más estocásticos y a nuestros descendientes evolutivos una Naturaleza no tan dependientes de las necesidades de una sola razonablemente sana (o incluso su propia existencia) especie. Desde la aparición los humanos hasta el simplemente por el hecho de que no sean huma- inicio de la era industrial, el modelo de desarrollo nos. Por extensión, también somos responsables humano era altamente sostenible y posteriormente de cualquier ser vivo, así como de sus posibles se convirtió en altamente insostenible, debido a descendientes evolutivos, que se vea amenazado las consecuencias de la industrialización. Aquí por el desarrollo humano actual. La conservación se enmarca el llamado “enfoque del propietario” de la Naturaleza implica, no sólo la preservación (owneship approach) (Bruce, 2008), que considera de la Biosfera actual y su biodiversidad por y para el planeta como nuestra granja particular, hecha la Humanidad, sino también su adecuada conti- para nuestro disfrute y continuidad, en un estado nuidad evolutiva. Los argumentos filantrópicos y donde el bienestar que se mide por el desarrollo sostenibles, restringidos a los intereses humanos, económico (que, por lo demás, tampoco consi- no bastan para este propósito.

Collectanea Botanica vol. 29 (2010): 103-109, ISSN: 0010-0730, doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2010.v29.011 106 V. Rull

Una visión telurocéntrica interesados en el tema deberíamos decidir, de una vez por todas, si queremos seguir apoyando esta El siguiente paso en el progreso hacia la conser- opción o ponernos a trabajar en serio para la au- vación de la Naturaleza sería abandonar el antro- téntica conservación de la Naturaleza, con todas pocentrismo y pensar más en términos evolutivos sus consecuencias. (Rull, 2010a). Como especie, esto podría parecer una renuncia a nuestra pretendida superioridad El desarrollo insostenible ecológica, pero como seres inteligentes, deberíamos ser capaces de hacerlo. Hasta ahora, hemos usado Por otra parte, desde un punto de vista ecológico nuestra inteligencia principalmente para entender global, la idea del desarrollo sostenible es totalmente nuestra propia existencia, para prolongar nuestras insostenible. El modelo capitalista de desarrollo vidas a nivel individual, o para desarrollar la tec- más extremo no tiene en cuenta el llamado capital nología que nos permite dominar el mundo. Sin natural y se considera la Naturaleza como algo embargo, desde el punto de vista ambiental, hemos inagotable que se puede explotar sin límite. Es lo hecho y hacemos gala de nuestra mayor estupidez que se llama “sostenibilidad débil” (weak sustaina- (Meffe, 2009). Deberíamos hacer honor a nuestra bility). Por el contrario, la “sostenibilidad fuerte” condición de animales inteligentes y esforzarnos (strong sustainability) sí que considera los recursos para preservar nuestra Biosfera y permitir su futura naturales como algo que hay que cuidar para que evolución (con o sin humanos) de la forma más no se agoten o deterioren (Neumayer, 2003). Los natural posible. partidarios de la primera opción, la que actualmente Desde el punto de vista del llamado “mundo domina en nuestro mundo, miden el desarrollo por real”, esto puede parecer ilusorio, pero no hay indicadores tan burdos como la acumulación de que olvidar que el auténtico mundo real no es el capital total o Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), que efímero teatro socio-económico en el que participa- es el indicador que se utiliza para ordenar jerár- mos hace apenas un siglo y medio, sino un mundo quicamente los países por su grado de desarrollo y constantemente cambiante, con ritmos y magnitu- hacer la lista de los países que deciden la política des más allá de nuestra capacidad de regulación económica internacional o “desarrollados” (G8 y como humanos. El instrumento que tenemos para similares), en contraposición a los que están “en adaptarnos (el único remedio que nos queda) a ese desarrollo”, entre otros eufemismos. Los partida- dinamismo es la inteligencia. En este contexto, rios de la sostenibilidad fuerte, en cambio, definen la necesidad de una revolución socio-económica el desarrollo sostenible como aquél que garantiza debe dejar de ser un recurso retórico o un eslogan que cada generación deja a la siguiente una base político para convertirse en una propuesta seria y productiva –que incluye tanto el capital reproducible creíble. Sin embargo, no debemos olvidar que el (infraestructuras, maquinaria, comunicaciones, etc.) desarrollo sostenible puede ser suficiente sólo si como el natural– por lo menos tan grande como la pensamos en términos humanos y para unas pocas que ella misma ha heredado (Dasgupta, 2010). Sin generaciones, pero si el objetivo es la conservación embargo, la imposibilidad de crecimiento ilimitado de la Naturaleza, todavía hay un largo camino que en un sistema con recursos limitados hace que ambas recorrer. Aquí, el cambio necesario no es sólo un ideas de sostenibilidad sean utópicas. asunto político o económico, como en el caso del En efecto, el capital reproducible y el natural desarrollo sostenible, sino que implica también son directamente interdependientes, de forma que una revolución profunda en las relaciones ciencia- cualquier incremento en el primero termina, a la sociedad, independientemente de otros factores y corta o a la larga, por diezmar el segundo, bien condicionamientos sociales. sea en forma de reducción, de contaminación o En definitiva, la idea del desarrollo sostenible no de acumulación de deshechos (Rull, 2010b). Una deja de ser una versión un poco más astuta del afán vez alcanzada la capacidad de carga de la Tierra, humano por seguir manteniendo, conscientemente la insistencia en un modelo de crecimiento de este o no, el derecho de propiedad (llámese ownership, tipo puede terminar en un colapso. La pregunta es stewardship o partnership, que en definitiva es cuán cerca o lejos estamos de esa capacidad de lo mismo) sobre el Planeta Tierra. Los científicos carga. Según Rockström et al. (2009), la Humanidad

Collectanea Botanica vol. 29 (2010): 103-109, ISSN: 0010-0730, doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2010.v29.011 El mito del desarrollo sostenible 107 ya transgredido tres de los nueve límites que se del trigo y el maíz, únicamente por razones de mer- consideran críticos, como son las tasas de cambio cado (Beddington, 2010). Es decir, que el hambre climático y de pérdida de biodiversidad, y la interfe- no es tanto un problema de superpoblación como rencia con el ciclo del Nitrógeno, que determina su de injusticia intra-generacional. Organismos como progresiva acumulación en la biosfera. Las últimas la Organización Mundial de Comercio, el Fondo estimaciones indican que, para seguir creciendo al Monetario Internacional y el Banco Mundial son ritmo actual ya necesitaríamos 1,2 planetas como los encargados de mantener esta situación de des- el nuestro (WWF, 2008) y esto se agravará en las igualdad y dominación de las economías ricas, sin próximas décadas. que la Organización de las Naciones Unidas, creada precisamente para garantizar, entre otras cosas, la ¿Una nueva revolución verde? seguridad internacional y los derechos humanos, pueda hacer nada por estar también subordinada a los Se calcula que para 2050 la población humana de designios del capital y el mercado (Pelletier, 2010). la Tierra será de aproximadamente 9 mil millones Por otra parte, si nos dejamos arrastrar por de habitantes, de forma que alimentarlos a todos la propuesta de la nueva revolución verde para adecuadamente se plantea como uno de los pro- solucionar el problema de los próximos 40 años, blemas más importantes de la actualidad (Ash et corremos el peligro de acelerar la degradación del al, 2010; Butler, 2010). Para ello, se propone una planeta y, lo que seguramente es peor, crear el nueva “revolución verde”, esta vez a nivel global, precedente de que siempre queda algo que expri- en la que la ciencia y la tecnología jueguen un papel mir, además de dar lugar a la falsa ilusión de que fundamental, a través de mejoras en los cultivos el crecimiento siempre es posible, y que basta con por modificaciones reproductivas y genéticas que una nueva revolución verde para manejar un nuevo incrementen la eficiencia fotosintética y reduzcan aumento de población (Rull, 2010b). Al final, lo la necesidad de fertilizantes; desarrollo de nuevos que lograríamos sería un planeta convertido en una métodos de control de plagas, enfermedades y con- gran granja construida exclusivamente para el desa- trol de malezas; mejores prácticas ganaderas que rrollo humano, sin apenas vestigios de lo que una reduzcan las emisiones de gases de efecto inver- vez llamábamos Naturaleza. A partir de ese punto, nadero (principalmente metano); innovaciones para cualquier pensamiento de ulterior desarrollo sería la mejora de las técnicas de pesca y acuicultura; poco menos que imposible. Este punto no está tan nuevos desarrollos en nanotecnología, genómica lejos como creemos. Un estudio reciente muestra y electrónica dirigidas a optimizar el uso de los que entre 1700 y 2000 la biosfera terrestre hizo recursos agrícolas; cambios en la dieta y reducción una transición decisiva de un estado mayoritaria- del consumo de carne y productos lácticos, así como mente natural a otro principalmente antropogénico, desarrollo de fuentes alternativas de proteínas, etc. alcanzándose el punto crítico del 50% en el siglo (The Royal Society, 2009; Beddington, 2010; Go- XX. Desde entonces, la mayoría de biomas son dfray et al, 2010). predominantemente antropogénicos, tendencia que A primera vista, esta opción parece muy loable, seguirá aumentando en el futuro (Ellis et al., 2010). por su elevada carga filantrópica, pero un análisis Las únicas áreas que todavía se mantienen en un más profundo revela que no necesariamente es a estado más o menos natural son los desiertos y así, ni siquiera para la Humanidad. En primer lugar, los polos, por razones obvias, pero bastaría que se es bien sabido que el hambre en el mundo, por lo encontrara algo que sacar de provecho (económico, menos en la actualidad, no es un problema de falta por supuesto) para revertir la situación. de recursos del planeta sino del desequilibrio socio- económico creado por el modelo supercapitalista Algunas alternativas emergentes que, después del reciente fiasco socialista, se ha reforzado como modelo de desarrollo global por En la Tierra, el crecimiento ilimitado de la población excelencia. Por ejemplo, antes de 2005, se calcula y del PIB es algo utópico y en algún momento habrá que existían 850 millones de personas desnutridas que parar. El límite lo define el capital natural, que en el mundo, cifra que se incrementó en 75 millones en definitiva es el origen de cualquier sistema de en sólo dos años debido al aumento de los precios producción (no hay nada que no saquemos de la

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Naturaleza), no importa cual sea el paradigma eco- así entendido no se vea como algo tan contrapro- nómico en boga. Ya existen algunas propuestas alter- ducente; o sea, de lo que se trata es de “cambiar nativas como el llamado “crecimiento cero” (steady todo para que nada cambie”. Lamentablemente, state economy) o el “decrecimiento” (degrowth) muchas buenas voluntades quedan atrapadas en (Lawn, 2010; Schneider et al., 2010). Ambos se esta trampa. Los científicos y tecnólogos han sido basan en los principios de la llamada “economía llamados a actuar como líderes en este empeño, ecológica” (ecological economics), que destaca la utilizando su profesión y su creatividad para en- importancia de las interacciones entre economía contrar las soluciones apropiadas (Beddington, y ambiente, así como de las leyes biofísicas que 2010). Sin embargo, una de las características que restringen el desarrollo humano. El principio básico debería distinguir la ciencia de otras actividades es termodinámico: La cantidad de energía de un es la independencia de cualquier sistema social, sistema cerrado es constante y cualquier transforma- económico, político, ideológico o religioso (Rull, ción degrada energía útil convirtiéndola en entropía. 2010a), por lo que deberíamos reflexionar muy Todas las actividades económicas producen este bien sobre la actitud que tomamos, no sólo por las tipo de degradación energética que termina en implicaciones ideológicas subyacentes, sino también desechos y contaminación, por lo que la capacidad por las posibles consecuencias futuras. No se trata de la Tierra para proporcionar materiales y energía de paliar las consecuencias más evidentes de un mo- para el desarrollo humano es limitada (Pelletier, delo de desarrollo inviable, ahora disfrazado con el 2010). Los defensores del decrecimiento creen que calificativo mágico de “sostenible”, que transforma el progreso humano sin crecimiento económico cualquier propuesta en algo políticamente correcto, es posible y proponen un descenso equitativo de sino de reemplazarlo. Es tiempo para la creatividad la producción y el consumo capaz de promover económica, pero no sólo para un cambio de vida el bienestar humano y mejorar las condiciones hacia costumbres más “ecológicas” o “verdes”, tal ecológicas a nivel local y global, a corto y largo como está de moda decirlo, sino hacia un cambio plazo (Schneider et al., 2010). Según ellos, no se profundo en el orden político y económico global. trata de una recesión o depresión económica, ni El modelo de desarrollo capitalista está agotado de un retorno a las sociedades pastorales. En la y agotará el planeta si lo seguimos manteniendo actualidad, este movimiento se está estructurando (Speth, 2009), directa o indirectamente, en aras del desde un punto de vista teórico y también con mito de la sostenibilidad. propuestas prácticas concretas (Martínez-Alier et al., 2010), y habrá que seguir su evolución en el futuro próximo. Referencias BIBLIOGRÁFICAS

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Collectanea Botanica vol. 29 (2010): 103-109, ISSN: 0010-0730, doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2010.v29.011 The myth of sustainable development*

Valentí Rull Palynology & Paleoecology Lab Institut Botànic de Barcelona (IBB-CSIC) Pg. del Migdia s/n, 08038 Barcelona, Spain E-mail: [email protected]

Introduction

This essay uses the concepts and arguments developed in previous studies (Rull, 2009, 2010a, b, c) to argue that so-called sustainable development is not the best option for the conservation of nature, and is unfeasible in ecological, economic, and even in physical terms. In short: it is a myth. This study is a call for caution before the adoption of certain personal and/or professional positions that are implicitly considered to be "politically correct" (or fashionable, which is another word for the same concept), when faced with the problem of human progress and the conservation of nature. This paper should be considered to be a personal opinion with the objective of promoting discussion.

An anthropocentric concept

According to the teachings of conservation organisations, conservation proposals appear to include both humanity and nature. It is common to read expressions such as "protect nature for ourselves and future generations" (The Nature Conservancy), "build a future where people live in harmony with nature" (World Wildlife Foundation), or "balance the needs of people with the needs of the planet who cares for us" (International Union for Conservation of Nature). Thus, the arguments of the conservationists seem to be both philanthropic (love of mankind) and “philoteluric” (love for the Earth). However, in reality, they are not; the real goal is to preserve the biosphere of the Earth so that humanity can continue living within it. Thus, the love for the Earth is a function of human survival, making these arguments essentially philanthropic.

Philanthropy is often considered a greater good for humanity and a necessary quality for a better world (Stewart, 2000). The concept of sustainability or sustainable development is inherently anthropocentric because its objective is the use of natural resources (also called ecosystem services) in a rational way such that these resources are not depleted and can still be used both by us and by future generations (WCDE, 1987). Ideally, sustainable development involves the simultaneous pursuit of economic prosperity, environmental quality, and social equity (Elkington, 2002). From an anthropocentric perspective, sustainable practices are considered correct because they are beneficial to humans, whereas anything that does not work in this manner is described, pejoratively, as unsustainable. Thus, sustainability has become a paradigm of conservation, and the

* translated from: Rull, V. 2010. El mito del desarrollo sostenible. Collectanea Botanica, 29: 103-109.

1 use of this word is taken to be sufficient to ensure the conservation of nature. Unfortunately, the adjective "sustainable" is becoming a meaningless, purely rhetorical word as it is used by any member of society, regardless of their function, socio-political orientation, or intentions.

Conservation in practice

So-called sustainable development depends heavily on the proper ecological functioning of natural systems, which is the only way to ensure the continuity of ecosystem services (Dasgupta, 2010). From an ecological perspective, sustainability has been associated with the maintenance of some key properties of ecosystems, such as biodiversity. Indeed, high biodiversity seems to be necessary to maintain many ecological functions and services in a changing world such as ours (Duffy, 2009). Therefore, the conservation of biodiversity is vital for sustainability, although there is little agreement about how to address it. Although some advocate a so-called "Zero Extinction" policy (Parr et al., 2009), others believe that the extinction of many species is inevitable and have proposed “conservation triage” for the efficient use of scarce resources (Bottrill et al., 2008). Regardless, from the standpoint of sustainable development, the idea of a domesticated natural world seems to be inevitable (Kareiva et al., 2007) and entails a good deal of what has been termed “planetary stewardship” (Bruce, 2008).

A basic idea in current conservation proposals is the possibility of harmonising the continuity and welfare of humanity with the conservation of nature; this has also been called the "partnership approach” (Bruce, 2008). To enable this harmonising, it is essential to substantially change the current model of human development (Ehrlich, 2009), with an attempt to increase sustainability. However, in practice, most conservation efforts are aimed at minimising the impacts of continued economic and population growth on the biosphere, such as pollution, deforestation, or the accumulation of waste. Thus, conservation has become a palliative activity (limited to the monitoring of the non-exceedance of arbitrary thresholds that are considered "acceptable" or "tolerable") largely dependent on the global economic system (super capitalism), which is based on the capitalist principles of the market economy and consumer incentives and is ultimately the source of the means for any conservation activity. This system is what has been called the "real world", in which the primary endpoint (i.e., the socio-economic change that is supposedly necessary for sustainable development) seems to be diluted into a multitude of problems to address specific conservation issues. It is true that these cases require an adequate solution, often urgent, and the need for more locally directed conservation is widely recognised today, especially in relation to climate change (Power & Chapin, 2009); however, the overall context, including the socio-economic aspects, should not be forgotten.

Another problem is the way to achieve sustainable development. At present there is much emphasis on the process of negotiation with the representatives of the so-called “real world” (e.g., politicians and economists), without any success. It is commonly said that this is due to problems in communication, such that it is recommended that scientists get involved in politics and in public disclosure (Orr, 2009). Negotiation with supporters of the current unsustainable model is a waste of time and of energy, as has been demonstrated repeatedly (Kyoto, Copenhagen, and so on). One must be very naive to think that the representatives of the established model would waive the model that has led them to where they are today, in a negotiation table. On the contrary, it is

2 likely that many scientists will see themselves unexpectedly trapped in the system they are trying to change (Rull, 2010a). A good example is in the current trend of assigning monetary value to biodiversity and ecological services, as well as the use of market- based economics as the managing tool (e.g. Redford & Adams, 2009; Sukhdev, 2009), which, in turn, can be fatal for the biosphere.

The second recommendation, direct communication between scientists and society, is much more realistic and promising. Today, this communication is in the hands of journalists and the mass media, which has obvious disadvantages such as the lack of an adequate scientific background to evaluate the reality, the reputed tendency to sensationalise, or the fact that they and their companies are part of the political- economic game that ultimately controls the flow of information and content. The obligation of scientists is to change the mind-set of society from the beginning to achieve the desired social change. For example, people are not aware at all of the important role they can play in biodiversity loss and its impacts, both globally and locally, including aspects that can affect the health and wellness of each individual (Power & Chapin, 2009; Money, 2010). Direct communication between science and society is an essential component of change, one that must be pursued actively and independently by scientists (Curry, 2009; Johns, 2009). Although this change in the mentality requires more time than other potential solutions, it holds the promise of having the most reliable and durable results.

The future of the Earth

According to Lozano (2008), the conceptual models of sustainable development are usually focused on contemporary human activities and rarely factor in time; thus, there is no consideration of the continuity and interactions between processes in the short and long term. To place the conservation of nature in its proper time perspective, an evolutionary view is required (Willis et al., 2007). In this context, we must not forget that the Earth has been almost devoid of humans during most of its history. Until the appearance of Homo sapiens 200,000 years ago (Tattersall & Schwartz, 2009), no species had been so widely distributed and had so much influence on the planet. Previously, changes in biodiversity occurred as a result of the natural course of evolution, and extinction patterns were more stochastic and less dependent on the needs of a single species. Since the emergence of humans, the model for human development was highly sustainable until the start of the industrial age, when human development subsequently became highly unsustainable due to the consequences of industrialisation.

This change due to industrialisation is part of the so-called "ownership approach” (Bruce, 2008), which considers the planet to be our private farm, provided for our enjoyment and our continuity in a state where welfare is measured by economic development (without consideration of social equity). The key question is whether humanity will remain forever or not. Although some claim that cultural evolution has replaced genetic evolution in humans, the evidence points to the continuity of natural selection, especially in relation to environmental changes (Rull, 2009). Humans have not necessarily separated themselves from evolution, and the future may be very different from the world as we know it. Eventually, with the continuity of evolution, the natural world will impose its laws and the planet will be devoid of humans, not necessarily as a result of a catastrophic collapse (whether self-induced or not) but as the logical consequence of extinction due to natural consequences (Rull, 2009). From a

3 purely anthropocentric perspective, the fate of humanity is more important than the preservation of nature. But the fate of nature will be very different if our legacy is a "healthy" and diverse biosphere or if we continue promoting the current biotic impoverishment, which some have dubbed the "sixth extinction" (Thomas, 2007). Therefore, in the long term, we are responsible for the future of the Earth.

Why should we worry about a future world without humans? From a philanthropic standpoint, there is no reason; however, from an philoteluric perspective, this concern is worth attention. Everything depends on the extent of our engagement in evolutionary selfishness. We are not only responsible for future human generations but also for all living creatures, human or otherwise, which may evolve from us (Rull, 2009). We have no right to deny our evolutionary descendants a reasonably healthy natural world (or even their existence) simply because they are not human. Consequently, we are responsible for any living being and their possible evolutionary descendants, threatened by human development today. The conservation of nature implies not only the preservation of the biosphere and its biodiversity for humanity now and in the future but also the proper continuation of evolution. Philanthropic and sustainability arguments, restricted to human interests, are not enough for this purpose.

A telurocentric view

The next step in the progress towards the conservation of nature would be to abandon anthropocentrism and think in evolutionary terms (Rull, 2010a). As a species, this might seem to be a waiver of our so-called ecological superiority, but as intelligent beings, we should be able to accomplish this. So far, we have used our intelligence primarily to understand our own existence, to prolong our lives individually, or to develop technology that allows us to dominate the world. However, from the environmental standpoint, we have done our best to demonstrate our stupidity (Meffe, 2009). We should honour ourselves as intelligent animals and strive to preserve our biosphere and allow its future development (with or without humans) as naturally as possible.

From the standpoint of the "real world", this may seem unrealistic; however, it should not be forgotten that the authentic real world is not the ephemeral socioeconomic theatre in which we participated as recently as a century and a half ago but is a world of constantly changing rhythms that are of a magnitude beyond our human capacity to regulate. The instrument we possess with which to adapt to that dynamism (the only remedy left to us) is intelligence. In this context, the need for a socio- economic revolution must cease to be a rhetorical or political slogan and become a serious and credible proposal. However, we must not forget that sustainable development can be sufficient only if we think in human terms, limited to a few generations; if the goal is the conservation of nature, much more is required. Here, the necessary change is not just political or economic, as it was for sustainable development; it also implies a profound revolution in the relationship between science and society, regardless of other factors and social conditions.

In short, the idea of sustainable development continues to be a slightly more clever version of the human desire, conscious or not, to continue to maintain property rights (be it ownership, stewardship or partnership, which are ultimately the same) on planet earth. As scientists interested in this subject, we should decide, once and for all, to work

4 seriously for the authentic preservation of nature with all of the consequences of that decision.

Unsustainable development

Moreover, from a global environmental perspective, the idea of sustainable development is completely unsustainable. The capitalist model of extreme development does not account for what is called natural capital and considers nature to be inexhaustible, something to be exploited without restraint. This model is what is called "weak sustainability". In contrast, "strong sustainability" does consider natural resources as something that we should be careful not to exhaust or deteriorate (Neumayer, 2003). The supporters of the first option, which currently dominates our world, use development indicators as crude as the accumulation of total capital or gross domestic product (GDP), which is the indicator used to hierarchically rank countries by the degree of development and to make a list of countries that choose to comply with international economic policy or are "developed" (e.g., classifications such as G8), as opposed to those that are considered to be "developing.” Advocates of strong sustainability, however, define sustainable development as one that ensures that each generation leaves a productive base for the next, which includes both the reproducible capital (e.g., infrastructure, machinery, and communications) and the natural capital; these resources should be maintained as they were when inherited from the prior generation (Dasgupta, 2010).

However, the impossibility of unlimited growth in a system with limited resources means that both concepts of sustainability are unrealistic “Utopian” ideas. Indeed, the reproducible capital and the natural capital are directly related, so that any increase in the former will decimate the latter, whether in the short or long term, either as a loss, as pollution, or as an accumulation of waste (Rull, 2010b). When the carrying capacity of the Earth has been reached, the insistence on a growth model of this type can result in collapse. The question is how close or far we are from that carrying capacity. According to Rockström et al. (2009), humanity has already broken three of the nine boundaries that are considered critical, including the rates of climate change and biodiversity loss and the interference with the nitrogen cycle, as nitrogen continues its progressive accumulation in the biosphere. The latest estimates indicate that we would need 1.2 planets like ours to continue growing at our current rates (WWF, 2008) and that this will worsen in the coming decades.

A new green revolution?

It is estimated that by 2050, nine billion humans will exist on earth. Therefore, one of the most important problems of today is how to feed our future generations (Ash et al, 2010; Butler, 2010). To do this, a new "green revolution” has been proposed, which will be global in this instance, with science and technology playing a key role through the following: improvements in crop breeding and genetic modifications that increase photosynthetic efficiency and reduce the need for fertilisers; the development of new methods to control pests, diseases and weed control; better farming practices that reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (mostly methane); innovations for improving fisheries and aquaculture techniques; new developments in nanotechnology, genomics and electronics to optimise the use of agricultural resources; changes in diet and reduced

5 consumption of meat and dairy products; and the development of alternative sources of proteins (The Royal Society, 2009; Beddington, 2010, Godfray et al., 2010).

At first glance, this approach appears laudable, by virtue of its philanthropic burden. However, a deeper analysis reveals that this is not necessarily so, even for the purposes of humanity. First, it is well known that hunger in the world is not a problem of lack of resources but of a socio-economic imbalance created by the model of super capitalism that, after the recent socialist fiasco, has been strengthened as an excellent global development. For example, in 2005, an estimated 850 million people were undernourished in the world, a figure that increased by 75 million in just two years due to rising prices of wheat and corn, an increase due solely to market reasons (Beddington, 2010). Thus, hunger is not so much a problem of overpopulation as intra- generational injustice. Bodies such as the World Trade Organisation, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are responsible for maintaining this situation of inequality and domination of the rich economies; the United Nations, which was created precisely to ensure international security and human rights among other things, cannot change the situation because it is subservient to the dictates of capital and its market economy (Pelletier, 2010).

Moreover, if we are dragged into the proposed new green revolution to solve the problem of the next 40 years, there is a danger of accelerating the degradation of the planet and, perhaps worse, creating a precedent that there is always something to exploit, encouraging the illusion that growth is always possible; thus, a new green revolution will permit further increases in population growth (Rull, 2010b). In the end, the planet would become a large “farmhouse,” built exclusively for human development, with little trace of what was once called nature. From that point on, any further development would be almost impossible. This point may not be as far-fetched as we think. A recent study shows that between the years 1700 and 2000, the biosphere of the earth made a decisive transition from a primarily natural state to a primarily anthropogenic one, reaching the critical point of 50% each in the twentieth century. Since then, the majority of biomass is predominantly anthropogenic, a trend that will continue to increase in the future (Ellis et al., 2010). The only areas that still remain in a more or less natural state are the deserts and the poles, for obvious reasons; once humanity can profit from those regions, that situation will end.

Emerging Alternatives

On Earth, unlimited population and GDP growth is somewhat utopian and at some point will have to stop. The limit is defined by the natural capital that is ultimately the origin of any production system (everything comes from nature), no matter what economic paradigm is in vogue. There are already some alternative proposals like the “steady state” or "degrowth” economies (Lawn, 2010, Schneider et al., 2010). Both are based on the principles of "ecological economics”, which highlights the importance of interactions between the economy and the environment and the biophysical laws that restrict human development. The basic principle comes from the laws of thermodynamics: the amount of energy of a closed system is constant, and in any energy transformation, useful energy is degraded into entropy. All economic activities produce this type of degradation, which ends in energy waste and pollution, demonstrating that the capacity of the earth to provide materials and energy for human development is limited (Pelletier, 2010).

Proponents of “degrowth” believe that human progress is possible without economic growth and suggest that a balanced decline of both production and consumption can promote human welfare and improve ecological conditions both locally and globally, both in the short and long term (Schneider et al., 2010). According to these proponents, this is not an economic recession or depression or a return to a pastoral societal structure. Today, this movement is structured from a theoretical point of view and with concrete practical proposals as well (Martinez-Alier et al., 2010) and will require further evolution in the near future.

Conclusions

In short, sustainable development is a fallacy. It does not guarantee the conservation of nature and is not a viable option for human progress in the interim or long term. The only intent of sustainable development is the development itself, guided by the principles of super capitalism, the market economy, and consumerism (Rull, 2010c). Although it is difficult to accept, any conservation of biodiversity, energy conservation, pollution and waste management, recycling, or remediation performed under this utopian model of growth is intended to maintain it, and that is how it is designed. All of these management practices are disaster mitigation to mask the visible damage, and thus, it is understood that development is not something counterproductive; that is, the idea is to "change everything so that nothing will change."

Unfortunately, many good intentions get caught in this trap. Scientists and technicians have been called to act as leaders in this endeavour, using their profession to creatively find appropriate solutions (Beddington, 2010). However, a characteristic that should distinguish science from other activities is that it is independent of any social, economic, political, ideological, or religious system (Rull, 2010a). Therefore, we should carefully consider the attitude we adopt; not only by the underlying ideological implications but also by the possible future consequences. In my opinion, we should not help alleviate the consequences of the capitalist development model (now disguised as “sustainable”, a word that turns everything in something politically correct), but to help replace this system. It is time for economic creativity; not just for a change of lifestyle to a more "ecological" or "green“ style, as it is fashionable to speak of, but for a profound shift in the global economic and political order. The capitalist development model is depleting and will finish depleting our planet if we continue maintaining, directly or indirectly, the myth of sustainability (Speth, 2009).

7 References

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8 Neumayer E. 2003. Weak versus Strong Sustainability: Exploring the Limits of Two Opposing Paradigms. E. Elgar, Cheltenham. Orr, D. 2009. Retrospect and prospect: the unbearable lightness of conservation. Cons. Biol. 23: 1349-1351. Parr, M. J., Bennun, L., Boucher, T., Brooks, T., Chutas, C. A., Dinerstein, E., Drummond, G. M., Eken, G., Fenwick, G., Foster, M., Martínez-Gómez, J., Mittermeier, R. & Molur, S. 2009. Why we should aim for zero extinction. Trends Ecol. Evol. 24: 181. Pelletier, N. 2010. Of laws and limits: an ecological economic perspective on redressing the failure of contemporary global environmental governance. Glob. Environ. Change 20: 220–228. Power, M. E. & Chapin, F. S. 2009. Planetary stewardship. Front. Ecol. Environ. 8: 399. Redford, K. H. & Adams, W. M. 2009. Payment for ecosystem services and the challenge of saving nature. Cons. Biol. 23: 785-787. Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K, Persson, A., Chapin, F. S., Lambin, E., Lenton, T. M., Scheffer, M., Folke, C., Schellnhuber, H. F., Nykvist, B., de Wit, C. A., Hughes, T., van der Leeuw, S., Rodhe, H., Sörlin, S., Snyder, P. K., Costanza, R., Svedin, U., Falkenmark, M., Karlberg, L., Corell, R. W., Fabry, V. J., Hansen, J., Walker, B., Liverman, D., Richardson, K., Crutzen, P. & Foley, J. 2010. Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for Humanity. Ecol. Soc. 14 (http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/) Rosales, J. 2008. Economic growth, climate change, biodiversity loss: distributive justice for the global north and south. Cons. Biol. 22: 1409-1417. Rull, V. 2009. Beyond us. EMBO rep. 10: 1191-1195. Rull, V. 2010a. The candid approach. EMBO rep. 11: 14-17. Rull, V. 2010b. Who needs a greener revolution? EMBO rep. 11: 659-663. Rull, V. 2010c. Food security: green revolution drawbacks. Science 328: 169. Schneider, F., Kallis, G. & Martinez-Alier, J. 2010. Crisis or opportuniy? Economic degrowth for social equity and ecological sustainability. J. Clean Prod. 18: 511– 518. Speth, J. G. 2009. The Bridge at the Edge of the World. Capitalsim, the Environment, and Crossing from Crisis to Sustainability. Yale University Press, New Haven. Stewart, J. 2000. Evolution’s Arrow, Chapman, Canberra. Sukhdev, P. 2009. Costing the earth. Nature 462: 277. Tattersall, I. & Schwartz, J. H. 2009. Evolution of the genus Homo. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 37: 67-92. The Royal Society. 2009. Reaping the Benefits: Science and the Sustainable Intensification of Global Agriculture. The Royal Society, London. Thomas, CD. 2007. A sixth mass extinction? Nature 450: 349. WCDE. 1987. Our Common Future. Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford. Willis K. J., Araújo, M. B., Bennett, K. D., Figueroa-Rangel, B., Froyd, C. A. & Myers, N. 2007. How can knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 362: 175-186. WWF. 2008. Living Planet Report. WWF, Gland, Switzerland.

9 outlookoutlook Sustainability, capitalism and evolution

Nature conservation is not a matter of maintaining human development and welfare in a healthy environment Valentí Rull

umans are exploiting the Earth in acknowledge, let alone abandon or reduce consumer products, technologies and an unsustainable manner, which their destructive practices. developments now claim to be ‘sustainable’, His accelerating both environ whatever that means. The same happens at mental degradation and loss of biodiversity. popular remedy for the deteriora the popular level, as the term ‘sustainable’ Moreover, owing to global climate change, tion of nature is ‘sustainability’— is often considered a synonym of good the rates of deterioration and extinction will Acommonly defined as meeting “the whereas ‘unsustainable’ is used in a pejora probably increase in the near future. The sci needs of the present without compromis tive sense for what is considered intrinsically entific community has been highly sensitive ing the ability of future generations to meet bad. Curiously, these notions are wide to this alarming development and increased their own needs” (WCDE, 1987)—which spread in different societal sectors—poli the number of baseline and ecological stud would harmonize human development and ticians, economists, scientists, journalists, ies on the impact of humans on the bio the conservation of nature. This classical the general public—independent of their sphere and proposed various strategies to notion of sustainable development argues social condition and political and economic alleviate the environmental and biotic crisis. inexplicitly for caring for our natural envi orientation. The terms ‘sustainable’ and ‘sus This has triggered vivid discussions about ronment, because it is the primary provider tainability’ are in danger of losing their origi the potential risks and benefits of meas of resources to sustain human life. Elkington nal meaning to become merely rhetorical ures such as adaptation and/or mitigation (2002) introduced a social element to this elements or advertising slogans. actions, ecosystem restoration, the assisted by recognizing that sustainable develop migration of species or triage conservation ment involves “the simultaneous pursuit of ur understanding and definition (Mooney, 2010). economic prosperity, environmental quality of nature conservation is largely and social equity”. Baumgärtner & Quaas Oguided by our concept of ‘natural …our social and economic (2010) define sustainability as “a matter ness’. But nature has always been in flux; systems are too recalcitrant to of justice at three levels: between humans after billions of years of biological evolution even acknowledge, let alone of the same generation, between humans of and ecological change—with and without different generations, and between humans human involvement—it is impossible to abandon or reduce their and nature”. Many other forms, definitions define the ‘natural’ state of the environment. destructive practices and interpretations of sustainability exist— In addition, human actions have an impact strong, weak, technological, economical, on ecosystems; thus, the maintenance of a One constant in these proposals is a social, environmental, ecological, and so pristine state of the Earth—however one sense of urgency, as the pace of change on—but, in all cases, the ultimate objective would define this—does not seem to be seems to outstrip our capacity to react of sustainability is to preserve biodiversity compatible with basic human needs. A to it. There are various crucial issues that and ecological functions for the benefit of more practical approach to sustainability limit said capacity: the incomplete inven present and future human generations. In and the preservation of a ‘natural’ state tory of biodiversity—we still do not know short, our concern for nature is essentially would be to require that any modifications how many and which species live on anthropocentric (Rull, 2010a). of nature leave ecosystems as diverse and Earth; our deficiency in understanding the ‘healthy’ as possible. More pragmatically, relationships between biodiversity and Our understanding and the best we could hope to achieve, even ecosystem functioning; and the inertia of definition of nature conservation from an ecocentric point of view, is to stop the planet itself—even if we immediately further ‘spoiling’ of nature and preserve the is largely guided by our concept stopped using fossil fuels and reduced CO2 current ‘unnatural’ state. emissions, global climate change would of ‘naturalness’ Given this inherent conflict between continue for decades or even centuries conservation and human needs, conser (Matthews & Weaver, 2010). Finally, but The concept of sustainability has become vation organizations struggle to propose maybe most damaging, our social and eco the paradigm for conservation and environ practices that “balance the needs of people nomic systems are too recalcitrant to even mental studies, to the extent that many with the needs of the planet that supports

us” (IUCN, http://www.iucn.org), or “pro example of this risk comes from attempts sustainable practices. The first thing to bear tect Earth’s most important natural places to assign monetary value to biodiversity in mind is that comprehensive wealth is for you and future generations” (The Nature and ecosystem services and use mar finite and limited by the carrying capacity Conservancy, http://www.nature.org), in ket rules to manage them (Rull, 2010a). of the Earth. If certain planetary systems— order to “build a future where people live A simple economic analysis is enough to such as climate, ocean acidity, freshwater in harmony with nature” (WWF, http:// demonstrate the fallacy of this economic and biodiversity—change beyond a certain www.wwf.org). In other words, conserva approach to sustainability, even from a limit, it could trigger nonlinear and cata tionists advocate sustainable development pragmatic perspective. strophic consequences on a global scale of human societies, but their activities can (Rokström et al, 2009). Second, the com only be palliative. Sustainability will only be …even if capitalism, as the ponents of comprehensive wealth depend attained after drastic reorientation towards dominant economic model, on each other: for example, building a road steady-state or de-growth economic models through a forest is done at the expense of (Lawn, 2010; Schneider et al, 2010), which incorporates natural capital into the forest, that is, natural capital. Building would involve profound changes not only its cost-benefit analysis, nature the road might increase comprehensive for societies, but also for every individual. still loses out... wealth but it has a price: natural degrada tion, including resource exhaustion, loss he main obstacles to such broad The appeal of this concept is that any of biodiversity and increased pollution. socioeconomic change towards sus ecosystem service could be submitted to a If human growth continues, these costs Ttainable development are the high cost–benefit analysis, that would incorporate could become so high that systems—both number of environmental problems that natural capital into current economic mod ecological and economic—collapse. clamour for attention (seeing trees but not els. It also makes possible a general definition Sustainable practices could therefore aim the forest) and the intransigence of social of comprehensive wealth, which includes not to minimize the loss of natural capital, but and economic systems. It is naive to pretend only reproducible capital such as buildings, if human development continues unabated, that representatives of the dominant eco machinery, roads and so on, but also natural the carrying capacity of the Earth will nomic and political systems will renounce capital. In this context, sustainable develop nonetheless be reached sooner or later. capitalism; this has been repeatedly demon ment has been redefined as ‘the accumulation strated at Kyoto or Copenhagen, where the of comprehensive wealth’, which requires ockström et al (2009) argue that international community was unable to that each generation should bequeath the humanity has already transgressed agree on even small changes to slow global next one at least as large a productive base, Rthree of nine critical planetary bound climate change. including both reproducible and natural aries, namely climate change, biodiversity Even worse, scientists and conservation capital, as it has inherited (Dasgupta, 2010). loss and interference with the nitrogen cycle ists could become trapped in the very sys However, submitting natural resources through industrial and agricultural fixation tem that they are trying to change. A good to economic analysis does not guarantee of atmospheric nitrogen, the combustion of

fossil fuels and biomass and the pollution of of the biosphere in general, nature conser the proliferation of methane-producing waterways and coastal zones. This means vation would imply not only the preser microbes in the early days, which poisoned that nature is subsidizing the capitalist mode vation of the current status, but also its safe the biosphere and triggered a significant of development. For a quantitative estimate evolutionary continuity. temperature decrease; the oxygenation of of natural costs, the LPI (Living Planet Index) the atmosphere, caused by the evolution of global diversity has declined by nearly The sixth mass extinction might of photosynthetic organisms; a global gla 35% in the past 30 years (WWF, 2008); be in progress, manifested in ciation of the planet (the Snowball Earth hence, the cost during this period has been hypothesis), probably caused by a decrease about 1.2% of species per year. the ongoing loss of biodiversity in atmospheric greenhouse gases; and the Even if capitalism, as the dominant eco caused by human activities eutrophication of coastal waters. nomic model, incorporates natural capital The sixth mass extinction might be in into its cost–benefit analysis, nature still From an evolutionary perspective, sus progress, manifested in the ongoing loss loses out; unlimited human growth—the tainability is therefore not enough, given of biodiversity caused by human activities central tenet of capitalism—and sustainable its intrinsic anthropocentric focus. Still, it (Wake & Vredenburg, 2008). This time, we development are incompatible (Rull, 2010b). would be a significant improvement on the would be the executors of Medea. The geo Some alternative modes of human develop unfettered exploitation of natural resources. logical record, however, shows that each ment exist (Costanza, 2009; Schneider et al, To progress from sustainability to nature mass extinction was followed by a spectac 2010), but these also rely on sustainability. conservation would require a less anthropo ular burst of diversification, which created centric and more evolutionary perspective. new species. It seems that Gaia takes over ow then would nature benefit from This might look like renouncing our status after each of Medea’s annihilations; evolu sustainability? In other words, how as the assumedly superior species on Earth tion on our planet is therefore imagined as Hwould sustainability guarantee but, as intelligent creatures, we should be the result of a capricious game between nature conservation? To answer this ques able to embrace conservation of nature. So the goddess of Earth (Gaia) and the killer tion, we must realize what nature is, beyond far, we have used our intelligence to try to enchantress Medea. its role in fulfilling human needs. Our planet understand our own existence, prolong our has mostly existed without humans since the lives and develop new technologies to rule If Ward is right, there is little first forms of life appeared around 3.8 bil the Earth. When it comes to environmental we can do to avoid the next lion years ago. Homo sapiens appeared issues, however, we are just stupid (Meffe, catastrophic extinction and we around 200,000 years ago (Tattersall & 2009). We must realize that the ‘real world’ Schwartz, 2009), but it was only during the is not the transitory socioeconomic scenario can only delay it for the sake of a past 10,000 years that humans began to in which we live, but the Earth that is evolv few generations change their environment on an increasing ing at a pace and magnitude that exceeds scale. Before this time, biodiversity gains our capacity to understand and appreciate If Ward is right, there is little we can do and losses were the results of natural evolu it. So far, proponents of sustainability have to avoid the next catastrophic extinction tion; extinction patterns were more stochas emphasized social equity and justice for and we can only delay it for the sake of a tic and were not determined by the needs future generations, whereas nature is still few generations. This could lead to a con of one species. The key question is whether viewed as a service provider that should be templative attitude, given the inevitability humankind will endure, or be just another maintained for practical reasons. of the looming destruction, combined with chapter in the history of the Earth. some efforts to preserve certain species for o make the argument more compli the sake of temporary human needs and From an evolutionary cated, evolution does not seem to be pleasure. After all, Gaia will take care of perspective, sustainability is Ta linear process. On the basis of the life again. If this cycle is the ‘natural’ state, geological and palaeontological record, more radical ecocentrists should accept it: therefore not enough, given its the palaeontologist Peter Ward (2009) has we have no reason to prefer the current state intrinsic anthropocentric focus proposed the Medea hypothesis: life—rather of life to the future result of Gaia’s creativity than contributing to the habitable condi after the inevitable extinction. To maintain Despite claims that cultural evolu tion of the Earth as proposed by the Gaia the status quo would be, according to this tion has replaced biological evolution in hypothesis (Lovelock, 1979)—can become view, an unnatural attitude. humans, natural selection is still shaping self-destructive and has caused nearly all our biology in response to environmental the mass extinctions that have occurred n conclusion, any proposals aiming to change. Humans in their current form are since the origin of life. So far, there have achieve sustainability, owing to their therefore not necessarily the last word in been five mass extinctions in the history of Iintrinsic anthropocentric nature, can evolutionary terms, nor is there a guarantee life on Earth (Courtillot, 1999). The last one, help to promote intra- and inter-generational that Homo will be around in the future (Rull, 65 million years ago—the demise of the social justice, but they are not sufficient to 2009). If we take a strictly anthropocentric dinosaurs—was probably triggered, at least achieve real nature conservation. This goal view and only worry for future humans, the in part, by a meteorite impact and is the only would require even more profound societal preservation of the planet beyond the next exception to the actions of Medea. change than is acknowledged. Replacing few generations should not be a matter of The other mass extinctions were prob capitalism with a new economic system is concern. However, if we worry for the fate ably the result of biology (Ward, 2009): necessary for sustainability, but real nature

conservation also requires a less anthro and CGL07069/BOS, funded by the Spanish Rull V (2010b) Who needs a greener revolution? pocentric attitude and the adoption of an Ministry of Science and Innovation. EMBO Rep 11: 659–663 Schneider F, Kallis G, Martinez-Alier J (2010) evolutionary perspective. Scientists would Conflict of Interest Crisis or opportunity? Economic degrowth for have a key role in triggering and guiding The author declares that he has no conflict social equity and ecological sustainability. these changes, provided that they are able of interest. Introduction to this special issue. J Clean Prod to analyse and communicate the appropri 18: 511–518 ate knowledge and maintain their inde References Tattersall I, Schwartz JH (2009) Evolution of the Baumgärtner S, Quaas M (2010) What is genus Homo. Ann Rev Earth Planet Sci 37: pendence from political and economic sustainability economics? Ecol Econ 69: 445–450 67–92 influences. Scientists must also leave their Costanza R (2009) Could climate change Wake DB, Vredenburg VT (2008) Are we in the laboratories and begin to interact with soci capitalism? Nature 458: 1107–1108 midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from ety on a larger scale (Johns, 2009). One rele Courtillot V (1999) Evolutionary Catastrophes: the world of amphibians. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105: 11466–11473 vant lesson is that natural systems have their The Science of Mass Extinctions. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press Ward P (2009) The Medea Hypothesis: Is Life dynamics, guided by evolution, so there Dasgupta P (2010) Nature’s role in sustaining on Earth Ultimately Self-Destructive? Princeton, is no single ‘natural’ state as a preferred economic development. Philos Trans R Soc NJ, USA: Princeton University Press conservation target. Naturalness, on the Lond B Biol Sci 365: 5–11 WCDE (1987) Our Common Future. Oxford, UK: contrary, is constant change. Elkington J (2002) Cannibals with Forks. Oxford, Oxford University Press UK: Capstone WWF (2008) Living planet report (http://assets. In the light of the long-term cyclical nature Johns D (2009) The international year of panda.org) of destruction and creation, it could become biodiversity—from talk to action. Conserv Biol a frustrating exercise to argue for conser 24: 338–340 vation, given that the next major extinction Lawn P (2010) Facilitating the transition to a and subsequent rise of a different biosphere steady-state economy: some macroeconomic fundamentals. Ecol Econ 69: 931–936 is unavoidable. However, much remains to Lovelock J (1979) Gaia: A New Look at Life on be done. Even if the cataclysm is inevitable, Earth. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press a reasonable target for conservation is to Matthews HD, Weaver AJ (2010) Committed delay it as much as possible by passing on climate warming. Nat Geosci 3: 142–143 Meffe GK (2009) Changes. Conserv Biol 23: the responsibility to forces and processes 1343–1345 beyond human control, biotic or not. In Mooney HA (2010) The ecosystem-service chain Valentí Rull is at the Botanical Institute other words: let the next major extinction Philos Trans R and the biological diversity crisis. of Barcelona, Spain. event be a natural one. Soc Lond B Biol Sci 365: 31–39 Rockström J et al (2009) Planetary boundaries: E‑mail: [email protected] exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Received 3 August 2010; accepted 15 December 2010; Acknowledgements Ecol Soc 14: 32 published online 14 January 2011 This paper has been written with the support of Rull V (2009) Beyond us. EMBO Rep 10: 1191–1195 projects BIOCON‑08‑031, funded by the Banco Rull V (2010a) The candid approach. EMBO Rep EMBO reports (2011) 12, 103–106. de Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Foundation, 11: 14–17 doi:10.1038/embor.2010.211

Research efficiency in relation to investment

V. RULL

Institut Botànic de Barcelona (IBB-CSIC-ICUB), Psg. del Migdia s/n., E-08038 Barcelona, Spain

E-mail: [email protected]

It is well known that productivity -expressed as Nobel prizes have been obtained with comparatively production per unit effort- is a better comparative low investment (Ioannidis, 2011). On the contrary, measure than bulk production, which largely re- in some cases, scientists or research units participate lies on internal peculiarities of production agents. in high number of national and international projects In science, however, many success measures still and receive high funding, but this is not necessarily consider production instead of productivity. A com- reflected in the number of papers in JCR journals or mon appraise of scientific production is the number the IFI points obtained. of papers published (P), especially in journals with Regional and worldwide comparisons among recognized impact indices, usually the Impact Factor countries are also possible but, in this case, E-values Index (IFI) of the ISI-WOK Journal Citation Reports should be interpreted with care due to obvious eco- (JCR). Beyond discussions on the suitability of this nomic inequality. However, these indices can also procedure, P is an absolute measure that should be help finding unexpected disequilibria among regions. balanced against other parameters to properly calcu- For example, a classification of countries or world late productivity or production efficiency E( ). regions based on E-values would produce eventual An index that would make sense for basic or surprises, in terms of research efficiency in relation fundamental research units is P in relation to invest- to investment. Indeed, countries with higher budgets ment (I), which could be expressed in the number of for science should not necessarily be the more ef- papers published (or IFI points scored) per unit money ficient, while others with lower investment would invested per unit time (E = P/It). In this way, it can be comparatively more productive. This would lead be computed the productivity of any research unit to revise national policies of investment in science. (a researcher, a project, a department, a university, The parameters of the E-equations can be selected an institute, etc). according to the evaluation target. For example, pat- The interpretation of E is not straightforward and ents or other similar outcomes can be used instead of would be taken as indicative of anomalous situations papers, in the case of technological units. For applied useful to implement or revise investment policies. For research units, direct (or short-term) and indirect (or example, a research unit with high funding but lower long-term) social benefits could be also used but this E than other with a lower budget would be requested includes many other complex variables, which are to increase its production or decrease its budget. beyond the scope of this letter. Similarly, I could be Conversely, the salary of a scientist (or the budget replaced by any other variable expressing scientific of a research unit) with similar E than other who endowment. Combinations and differential weigh- receives higher funding could be considered worth to ing of the involved variables leading to little more be increased. In this sense, it is noteworthy that some complicated equations are also possible. 108 V. RULL

It should be emphasized that E-values are by no of situations, in order to decide about its suitability, means quality measures; they only record the effi- or to suggest eventual improvements. Therefore, it ciency of investment in science and should not be would be useful to start doing statistics with these used to evaluate research quality, but only to optimi- and similar productivity indices at all levels, and ze investment policies. These simple indices would be prepared for amazing results. be also useful to show tax payers and administrators the efficiency of public and private investment in science. A proposal like this cannot be analyzed only REFERENCE on the grounds of theoretical arguments. Rather, it Ioannidis, J. P. A. 2011. More time for research: Fund people should be tested using empirical data from a variety not projects. Nature 477: 529-531.

Collectanea Botanica vol. 30 (2011): 107-108, ISSN: 0010-0730 sciencescience & & societysociety Time, evolution and physical reductionism The arrow of evolutionary time challenges an eventual physical theory of everything Valentí Rull

he experience of time is familiar to because they are based on the fact that any Determinism […] is incompatible us all, yet it remains one of the great- system in the universe is made of the same with the contingent nature of Test scientific mysteries. For centuries, fundamental physical entities and, as such, biological processes, in which physicists and philosophers have puzzled are subject to the same fundamental laws. over the nature of time, or even whether it This context either totally ignores life and chance, stochasticity and chaotic exists at all. Is time a real, physical entity or evolution or implicitly regards these as a behaviour are common a construction of the human mind? How default. However, further analysis shows did time start and where does it come from? that this ignorance of the living world is (emergent) properties at each level of evolu- Will it ever end and what came before it? not a prudent approach to understanding tionary integration [4]. Contrary to physics For physicists, the answers to these ques- the universe. and chemistry, these emergent properties tions are relevant in their work to develop derive not only from chance, but also a theory of everything (TOE), the aim of volutionary biologist Ernst Mayr from the nature of biological systems them- which is to explain all particles and forces of believed that several concepts in phys- selves. Indeed, living beings have unique nature. At present, the main handicap for a Eics—essentialism, determinism and capacities that are not present in the inani- TOE is the incompatibility between predic- reductionism—are mostly not applicable to mate world: self-replication, growth and dif- tions made by Einstein’s theory of general biological systems. Essentialism (or typol- ferentiation through a genetic programme, relativity and those of quantum mechan- ogy) posits that there are a limited number metabolism, self-regulation to keep the sys- ics [1]. Relativity is useful to understand of natural kinds, called essences or types, tem in homeostasis, responding to stimuli gravitational force, which governs large- each forming a class. The members of each from the environment, change at the pheno- scale mass interactions, whereas quantum class are thought to be identical, constant type and genotype levels, evolution and physics deals with the other three basic and sharply separated from the members of mortality. These features can be more forces of nature: electromagnetic force, and any other class. Typological thinking is una- broadly described by two characteristics: strong and weak nuclear forces, which are ble to accommodate intermediate states and high complexity and evolution. involved in atomic and subatomic inter variation, two integral features of biological actions. A recent attempt to unify both entities, which are considered nonessential he basic difference between living theories into so-called string theory has and accidental. and non-living things is that biologi- been received as a good candidate for a Determinism, as espoused by the French Tcal processes are subject to dual cau- TOE, but it is not universally accepted as mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace, who sation; that is, they are controlled not only a cosmological model [2]. claimed to be able to predict the future by natural laws, but also by genetic pro- to infinity from a complete knowledge of grammes. These genetic programmes are Is time a real, physical entity or a the present, is incompatible with the con- the raw material for biological evolution. construction of the human mind? tingent nature of biological processes, in There is nothing comparable to this in the which chance, stochasticity and chaotic inanimate world [4]. behaviour are common. These biological capabilities are Ideally, a TOE should be a perfect model Reductionism, or the idea that a complete the reason for the fundamental differ- of reality; a complete and consistent set inventory and precise knowledge of each ences between physical and biological of fundamental laws of the universe that component of a system are enough to explain processes in time. One example is the could be used to predict all phenomena the system and its functioning, is not appli thermodynamic meaning of evolution, as [2,3]. So far, most attempts to formulate a cable to biological systems either because compared to physical systems, for which TOE have been intrinsically reductionist, of the existence of new, unpredictable it is necessary to introduce the concept of

time’s arrow (TA). In spite of the fundamen- on matter interchange and thermodynamic several times at the same locus before tal uncertainties about time, evidence for its processes. Such directionality, however, becoming fixed [10]. existence can be found in many processes, does not mean that evolution is a teleo Cyclic phenomena sometimes drive from cosmological to psychological ones. logical process [4], as the stochastic ele- directional evolution. Cyclic variations in These processes have in common that they ments involved in both biological processes the Earth’s orbital parameters, such as allow us to distinguish the past from the and environmental forces produce unpre- eccentricity, obliquity and precession—the present in a continuous, directional and dictable results. The fossil record also shows Milankovitch cycles—influence global cli- irreversible fashion, thus defining a TA. that evolution is irreversible, as the emer- mate and correspondingly the biosphere. gent life forms are always new and different These cycles have occurred since the early without recurrences [9]. Palaeozoic, around 500 million years ago Evolution has also cyclic [11]. The more recent and well-documented components, but these do not volution also has cyclic components, manifestations of their impact are the break the directionality of the but these do not break the directional- Pleistocene glaciations, which started eTA; rather, they contribute to Eity of the eTA; rather, they contribute 2.5–3 million years ago. Their evolutionary irreversibility to irreversibility. Examples of this duality are significance has been extensively discussed, homologies and analogies in organisms [6]. and molecular phylogenetics has revealed Homologies arise from a common ancestor intense evolutionary activity during the Using Ludwig Boltzman’s interpretation and represent eTAs. An example of a homol- past 3 million years. This activity is thought of the second law of thermodynamics, one ogy is the backbone, which has undergone to reflect an increase in speciation owing to definition of a fundamental cosmological irreversible modifications from the first prim- the continuous and recurrent creation and TA proposes a universal, continuous and itive vertebrates to today’s mammals along a destruction of geographical bridges and inexorable increase of entropy. This con- unique and continuous evolutionary line. barriers during periodic climatic shifts [12]. cept of time, known as the thermodynamic Analogy appears in genealogically dis- On a larger scale, mass extinctions are or pessimistic TA, predicts the end for the tant lineages of organisms and is often recurrent, possibly cyclic events that have universe by thermal death [5]. By contrast, associated with particular environmental dramatically changed the evolutionary cyclic time has no direction; fundamental adaptations. Well-known examples are the process. The biggest mass extinction docu- states are imminent in time, always present wings of insects, birds or bats, the ontologi- mented so far was at the end of the Permian, and never changing. In cyclic time, appar- cal origins of which are totally different. about 250 million years ago, and is thought ent progress is part of ever repeating cycles, Analogies are considered manifestations of to have eliminated around 95% of the spe- and differences of the past will be reali- cyclic evolution, as they reappear at different cies on Earth [13]. However, each mass ties of the future [6]. Physical examples of stages of the whole tree of life but in totally extinction has triggered spectacular bursts cyclic time are the movement of subatomic different organisms. The American evolution- of diversification from a few survivors. This particles and celestial dynamics that follow ary biologist Stephen J. Gould, for instance, means that the principal eTA has not been classical Newtonian mechanical laws. discussed the example of the fins of the ich- broken and that there is only one single tree thyosaur, a descendant of terrestrial reptiles of life on Earth. Mass extinctions and the sub- he evolution of life on Earth has char- that returned to the sea during the Jurassic sequent diversification imply that many evo- acteristic features—continuity, direc- period. This ‘sea lizard’ had dorsal and cau- lutionary lines have been interrupted while Ttionality and irreversibility—that dal fins analogous to those of fish—they others continued on, thus creating new provide empirical evidence of a directional evolved independently between these evolutionary opportunities. Both extinction TA, an evolutionary TA (eTA). The fossil groups—while the ventral fins are homo and evolutionary continuity have occurred record shows that evolution has continued logous to, that is, modified from, the legs of randomly and independently in different lin- since life began at least 3.8 billion years ago its terrestrial ancestor. This combination eages, adding even more stochasticity and [7]. The emergence of life itself is probably of homologies and analogies in the same contingency to the evolutionary process. the result of a trial-and-error process, which organism creates new life forms and there- means that evolution took place even before fore contributes to evolutionary unpredicta- he eTA is therefore a highly unpre- the first primitive cell: evolution therefore bility and irreversibility [6]. Another example dictable trend, as a manifestation of preceded life [8]. Evolution is also direc- of cyclic phenomena comes from molecular Ta stochastic and contingent process, tional, as manifested by the progressive phylogenetics. Fossils can only show us from simpler to more complex forms and increase in the diversity and complexity of some phenotypical expressions of their host with increasing levels of organization and organisms and the communities they form; genomes, but the study of the genome itself emergent properties. It is a constructive or from unicellular prokaryotes to higher can reveal how some mutations have arisen progressive trend that does not follow the organisms, and from the simple stromatolitic assumedly universal rule of thermodynamic producer–decomposer organization to the This combination of homologies degradation, which is a destructive pro- complex communities that are tropical rain- and analogies in the same cess—the eTA has therefore been called the forests or coral reefs. This directionality organism creates new life forms optimistic TA [14]. involves not only an increase in organismal The second principle of thermodynam- diversity and complexity, but also in the and therefore contributes to ics was proposed in the late nineteenth cen- number and complexity of biotic and abi- evolutionary unpredictability tury by physicist Rudolf Clausius, one of the otic interactions, with corresponding effects and irreversibility founders of thermodynamic science, who

studied closed systems that did not exchange … one possibility is that the (phenotypic) change through time [16] and energy or matter with their environment. In law of entropy is not applicable the emergence of complex ecosystems [17]. contrast to Clausius’s closed systems, living to biological systems and their However, these processes seem to be unable systems are open, dissipative systems that evolution to capture the genetic basis of evolution permanently swap matter and energy with [16], the most important feature that distin- their environment and are always far from guishes inanimate things and the living thermodynamic equilibrium: that is, death. of self-organization is that order might spon- world. Furthermore, inferences from self- In this sense, life seems to be a permanent taneously emerge from chaos in an irreversi- organization are based on mathematical struggle against thermodynamic equilib- ble fashion: a system that is not in models—after all, self-organization itself is a rium. Therefore, one possibility is that the thermodynamic equilibrium can reach a mathematical artifice—with relatively poor law of entropy is not applicable to biological state of higher complexity and a high level of validation against nature, which restricts systems and their evolution [4]. order, and requires higher amounts of energy its applicability. Johan van der Koppel [18], Several efforts have been made to solve from the environment to persist [15]. In this an ecologist working on spatial self- this problem, including early attempts by way, the system generates an irreversible organization, believes that “the topic of physicists Ludwig Boltzmann and Erwin process towards progressively increasing complexity in ecology is in its current state Schrödinger, who proposed that organisms diversity, complexity and matter/energy, as mostly about the complexity of models are able to maintain large amounts of order exhibited by biological evolution for open rather than of the natural world”. Regardless, within the generalized disorder of the envi- dissipative systems. Experiments have shown self-organizational processes might well ronment, but that this capacity does not vio- that self-organization can create progres- have been important during the initial pre- late the second principle as it only sively ordered and complex structures, but biotic phases that preceded the formation of represents a delay in the eventual increase its eventual ability to reproduce biological the first living cells [19]. Pre-biotic processes in entropy. A milestone was the proposition evolution has yet to be demonstrated. were essentially chemical transformations of the self-organization theory by Ilya Among the biological features that leading to organic molecules, a process Prigogine and colleagues, for which they could be explained to some extent by self- known in chemistry as self-assembly, which received the Nobel Prize in 1977. The idea organization processes are morphological is equivalent to self-organization.

t therefore seems that the eTA is differ- Rather than perceiving life and be regarded as an opportunity to enhance ent from the thermodynamic TA, which its evolution as inconsistent our knowledge of the universe and iden- Iimplies that the latter would not be valid with current physical theories, tify new, more general laws. Ideally, multi for every phenomenon. This would prevent disciplinary teams should address this any eventual TOE based solely on physical they should be regarded as an intellectual challenge. So far, scientific processes. The properties and behaviours opportunity to enhance our disciplines—for example, physics and of organisms, including human beings, and knowledge of the universe… biology—have been so disconnected that their evolution, are not predictable from a proper comprehension of each other’s the properties of their constituents; thereby other means, a hypothesis often called foundations, interests, methods, principles fore, any candidate TOE must account for panspermia. At present, there are few inter- or paradigms has been almost impossible. biological complexity, contingency and planetary meteorites or other structures, Perhaps the field of molecular biology, in a emergent properties [20]. If such a TOE is but they must have been far more frequent wide sense, could provide a suitable arena possible, it should arise from the study of during the formation of the planets [23]. If for discussions, given its transitional and the complexity and evolution of living sys- life was transported between planets, there multidisciplinary nature. tems and their description in general terms, could be as many eTAs as there are inhab- not from forcing complex systems to obey ited planets, as evolution would have pro- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS physical laws. Indeed, some contemporary ceeded differently on each planet owing to This paper was written during the development of projects BIOCON‑08‑031, funded by the BBVA physicists, including Stephen Hawking, their respective special features and geologi Foundation, and CGL2009‑07069/BOS, funded think that to understand the universe, we cal history, evolution’s intrinsic stochastic by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. might need different theories in different and contingent character, potential differ- situations, each one with its own version of ences in the time of origin or inoculation, CONFLICT OF INTEREST reality and none more real than any other and the nature of the transported inoculates. The author declares that he has no conflict of interest. [3]. Others support the idea that owing to Alternatively, if life arose independently on contingency and the existence of emergent different planets, which means that there is REFERENCES and unpredictable properties and pro- more than one tree of life, it is possible that 1. Duff M (2011) Theory of everything: the big questions in physics. New Sci 210: ii–iii cesses, the understanding of the universe the underlying biochemistry of life is either 2. Hutter M (2010) A complete theory of needs a plural scientific approach, and that the same as on Earth—carbon-based, with everything (will be subjective). Algorithms 3: scientific knowledge cannot be restricted DNA as the carrier of genetic information— 329–350 to general models [21]. In other words, or not [24]. In both situations, planetary 3. Hawking S, Mlodinow L (2010) The (elusive) theory of everything. Sci Am 303: 68–71 there is no such thing as a TOE, or if there peculiarities would have shaped the final 4. Mayr E (2004) What Makes Biology is, it is subjective [2]. result, although in the latter case the evo- Unique? Considerations on the Autonomy lutionary patterns and outcome would be of a Scientific Discipline. Cambridge, UK: even more unpredictable. Cambridge University Press …to understand the universe, 5. Drory A (2008) Is there a reversibility we might need different theories paradox? Recentering the debate on the rrespective of whether there is one or thermodynamic time arrow. Stud Hist Phylos in different situations, each one more tree of life in the universe, every Mod Phys 39: 889–913 with its own version of reality and host planet would have unique eTAs, 6. Gould SJ (1987) Time’s Arrow, Time’s Cycle: I Myth and Metaphor in the Discovery of reflecting each planet’s particular features. none more real than any other Geological Time. Cambridge, MA, USA: In other words, evolutionary time would be Harvard University Press In the context of the present discus- planetary-dependent, and a unique univer- 7. Mojzsis SJ, Arrhenius G, McKeegan KD, sion, the discovery or not of life on other sal eTA would be unlikely—although the Harrison TM, Nuyman AP, Friend CR (1996) planets would challenge the assumed uni- eTAs would be parallel. Thus, even if life is Evidence for life on Earth before 3,800 million versal physical and/or biological laws. If a widespread phenomenon, evolutionary years. Nature 384: 55–59 8. Tessera M (2011) Origin of evolution versus life is exclusive to Earth, it could be a uni- characteristics are not expected to be uni- origin of life: a shift of paradigm. Int J Mol Sci versal anomaly and not a cosmic impera- form throughout the universe, one more 12: 3445–3458 tive and therefore challenge a physical handicap for a TOE. Of note, there has also 9. Coyne JA (2009) Why is Evolution True? New TOE. 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Towards a scientific force: Some insights and a manifesto

V. RULL

Institut Botànic de Barcelona (IBB-CSIC-ICUB), pg. del Migdia, s/n, ES-08038 Barcelona, Spain

E-mail: [email protected]

Just a glance at Bad ideas? An arresting history of service of the dominant political-economic system, our inventions (Winston, 2010) is enough to realize which filters the knowledge provided and decides the overwhelming influence of scientific research on which aspects to take and which ones to bypass in society through history. Almost everything we see, order to secure its continuity. For example, the In- use and need in our quotidian life is a product or tergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC), a by-product of scientific research not to mention the leading international body for the assessment of the advances in medicine and technology, without climate change, is not independent at all, as their which our everyday life would be very drastically members are designated by the governments of the different. Science also provides the more reliable countries belonging to the United Nations (UN). In scenarios for the future of the biosphere, and the spite of the Nobel Peace Prize obtained in 2007 (cu- better-informed strategies for nature conservation, riously, a non-scientific prize), the IPCC is no more in the face of the predicted future global changes. than a consultant organization without any executive In addition, spectacular advances in the comprehen- or decision power. sion of the Universe and its essential matter-energy Science is too important and its achievements too constituents, as well as in the unravelling of the decisive for humanity to be relegated to a merely more intimate nature of Life, among others, are also advisory activity for transitory political and economic worth mentioning. forces to take major decisions about the present and In spite of this, science and scientists have com- the future of the world (Jacobs, 2012). Science should paratively low societal valuation and decision power, attain a higher societal status to secure decision power and we spend most of our lives asking for fair sa- and to lead decisions in which scientific knowledge laries and research funding, as if we were asking provides fundamental criteria. Therefore, the role of for charity (Parker, 2002). Moreover, the budget science and their practitioners in a globalized context dedicated to scientific research is among the first to like the present should be reconsidered. The challen- be reduced under a crisis, as it occurs for example ge is twofold. Scientists should push for attaining today, even in the more rich economies. In addition, such a status among leading forces, but at the same science has neither voice nor vote in public affairs time, they should revise their own relationship with and in the planning of the future of the planet, and society. Both activities would act synergistically in their warning claims often receive the same conside- a positive feedback, as more incidence of science on ration that those from purely activist organizations. society will result in higher impact on political and The more influential position achieved by science, economic forces, which in turn, will favor greater as an institution, is that of an advisory body at the societal integration of science. 122 V. RULL

A challenging proposal this essay cannot be considered a call for immediate action but an exhortation to scientists to take the Several strategies have been proposed to increase the opportunity that could represent an eventual future societal impact of science, from an active involve- shift in the global order. ment in politics to a direct interaction with authorities It is well known that social, economic and political and society (Curry, 2009; Johns, 2009; Orr, 2009). systems, no matter if local, regional or quasi-global, An example of the first option is the recent creation have been succeeded one after another through of a political party, the Science Party, in the UK, history. Therefore, it is expected that the currently with the aim of ensuring that science, mathematics dominant global capitalism will, someday, collapse and engineering have sufficient funding, skills and and give way to a new system in a natural way (Speth, political priority (http://scienceparty.org.uk/). The 2009). So far, it is not possible to predict the features second option has manifested in several ways, as of this eventual new order but, given the current for example negotiation with political authorities technological developments in communication, it is and organization of popular activities to divulgate likely that it may be of potentially global reach. In science. So far, political negotiation has been steri- this endeavor, science should be ready to assume the le, as demonstrated in the latest worldwide summit corresponding responsibility, but this time as an active meetings (Rull, 2010, 2011). Direct communication player participating in the social transformation and of scientific researchers and society would be a very remaining as a leading and independent force once promising initiative, provided scientists are able of the new establishment is achieved. leaving their laboratories and begin to interact with society on a larger scale (Johns, 2009). All these and other similar options, as well as the potential Insights for a manifesto methodologies to attain them, have been (and actually are) widely discussed but their success has Whatever the strategy, the venture of upgrading been testimonial, so far. The proposal here is groun- science to a leading and decisive worldwide status dbreaking: to progress towards science as one more should be addressed globally, for which we need to institutional force, with the same status and decision identify and agree in the basic principles of science, power that any other political or economic force or, and elaborate a set of minimum requirements that in other words, a parallel independent force outside any scientist in the world interested in the initiative any temporarily dominant system. Obviously, such can adopt as the basis for action. Here, I offer some a proposition requires a more detailed explanation. tips and clues, in the hope that this will promote It should be admitted such the scenario is hard, discussion leading to this minimum agreement. I perhaps impossible, to fit into the currently dominant reproduce the words of Robert Winston (2010) in system, based on economic growth, competition and the introduction of his scientist’s manifesto: “It may rewarding. The main reasons are funding constra- seem presumptuous, but it is offered as a starting ints and external incentives to researchers. First, point for a helpful change in thinking”. A number it should not be forgotten that research funding of science manifestos and declarations have been al- is currently dependent on capitalist rules, which ready published, hence, the need for one more should aim is to perpetuate the system. Therefore, any be justified, and their eventual differences explained. initiative trying to challenge this economic system The official declarations of UNESCO and the Eu- would be ignored, at best, or actively combated if ropean Union explicitly express in their respective it is considered important enough to be subversive. manifestos the need for scientific knowledge as a On the other hand, the system has the appropriate vehicle for progress, development and sustainabi- mechanisms to maintain the researchers attached lity (UNESCO, 2000; EU, 2009). Therefore, for to it through rewards to individual success oriented them, scientific research is implicitly understood to exalt their ego, such as political or academic as a means to promote and maintain the current influence, media exposure, prizes, and eventually political and economic status quo, thus depriving fame and glory (though not in the same degree as, scientific independence. This support is explicitly for example, sport or movie stars, whose activities stated in the latest European Commission’s agenda produce a lot of money in the short term). Therefore, for scientific research, the 7th Framework Pro-

Collectanea Botanica vol. 31 (2012): 121-125, ISSN: 0010-0730, doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2012.v31.011 Towards a scientific force: Some insights and a manifesto 123 gramme (FP7), which considers that “Knowledge more ideological, political or economic tendency lies at the heart of the European Union’s Lisbon into play nor an obscure pseudo-religious or sec- Strategy to become the most dynamic competitive tary movement, but of a parallel independent force knowledge-based economy in the world” (http:// outside the temporarily dominant system. Indeed, cordis.europa.eu/fp7/understand_en.html). In other any activity of the eventual scientific power must be words, knowledge is considered as a fundamental absolutely transparent and open to public scrutiny. basis for economic competition, which is to say The tips offered at following contain some economic growth. Other manifestos are actually ideas from other existing manifestos already action plans to improve national or regional science mentioned, but they are largely the result of an systems or to contribute to the development via attempt to distillate the main concepts without scientific research (Watson et al., 2008; Urama any external constraint. In some of these points, et al., 2010). Manifestos dealing with intellectual as in some of the basic foundations mentioned property and free software have also proliferated above, the influence of the famous “Mertonian in the last years, most of them only accessible by norms” or CUDOS (communalism, universalism, Internet (e.g. http://freedomofscience.org/). There disinterestedness and organized skepticism), as are also manifestos presenting science as a political well as other considerations from the extensive alternative, as for example the one of the already work of Robert K. Merton (1973) and his critics mentioned UK Science Party. The Winston’s (2010) (e.g. Stehr, 1978) on the subject, is also patent. As manifesto is more general but it prioritizes the social stated above, the following thoughts are offered responsibility of scientists and implicitly assumes as a matter of discussion to achieve a scientific that negotiation among scientists and the dominant code as simple as possible, in order to maximize forces is a solution. The Manchester Manifesto, of its generality and, hence, its acceptance. the Institute for Science, Ethics and Innovation, of the University of Manchester (http://www.isei. manchester.ac.uk/TheManchesterManifesto.pdf) The manifesto also makes emphasis on the intellectual property issue, although it also offers interesting general tips (1) Science is the intellectual act by which humans on science itself. The recent Geek Manifesto (Hen- generate and organize knowledge per se. Knowled- derson, 2012) also shows the paramount importance ge generation makes sense by itself, and does not of science in all the aspects of the quotidian life and need a justification or an external context for its advocates for a new movement to upgrade science development. and scientific outcomes. However, this movement does not contemplate a change in socio-political (2) Science is a natural outcome of the functioning order, as it proposes that science should be used of human mind and, as such, a genuine human at- “to create life-enhancing technologies and to drive tribute and an unavoidable necessity. Rather than economic growth” (Henderson, 2012). merely the consequence of human curiosity, as is Within the framework of this essay, the scientific often considered, science is a manifestation of the proclamation needed should have four main basic inevitable human need and passion for knowledge. foundations: (1) It should be independent, that is, free from any non-scientific influence (external (3) Science is based on observation and experimen- forces); (2) it should be timeless, independent from tation, hence, the raw input is exclusively factual. any transient historical circumstance; (3) it should The ultimate aim of science is to understand the be universal, that is, acceptable by any scientist of world, from the more intimate nature of matter to the planet, independently of their particular condi- the origin and evolution of Life and the Universe, tion; and (4) it should consider science as one more and to predict its potential future evolution. force, with the same status and decision power that any other political or economic power. The last (4) Science is not an ideological, philosophical, point is especially important and should be briefly social, political, economic, moral or religious explained to avoid misunderstandings. The idea movement, sect, system or tendency (the external behind this point is neither that of science as one forces), and must remain independent from any of

Collectanea Botanica vol. 31 (2012): 121-125, ISSN: 0010-0730, doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2012.v31.011 124 V. RULL them. Any attempt to transform science into one (10) Science provides the knowledge for biological, more of these external forces is incompatible with medical and technological discoveries and impro- the principle of independence. vements, oriented to human health and wellbeing but these are not the only societal objectives of (5) Any dispute between science and any religion scientific research. Knowledge generation and or other faith-based systems is non-sense and sterile appropriate transfer should also contribute to in- by definition, as they try to explain the world using crease individual and collective freedom and free incompatible axioms and knowledge methods, and will. A society of formed and informed citizens is have contrasting ultimate objectives. As human less prone to manipulation. beings, scientists may have or have not religious beliefs; however, these beliefs should not interfere (11) The distinction between basic and applied in the job as science practitioners. science is unnecessary. Every result from scientific research is, sooner or later, applicable for the benefit (6) Scientific knowledge has profound impact on of society. Those applications considered harmful humanity and, therefore, involves a great deal of for society derive from the influence of external societal responsibility. Rather than being merely an forces and/or personal interests. advisory entity, science should participate in human decisions with the same status and executive power (12) Science should have one single universally than political, economic and other forces, especially accepted ethical code, a code that meets the con- when global topics are discussed. ditions of universality and independence, without any political, cultural, religious or ideological bias. (7) Science should not be competitive (in the capitalistic sense) or an instrument to attain personal or institutional success in the form of rewards Final words (power, notoriety, popularity, money, prizes, etc.). As a fundamental human need, funding for science A number of these points may be hard to assimi- should proceed from society, via public investment, late within the current reality but, as stated above, and should be administered by scientific organisms, they should be viewed as a basis for a societal without the influence of external forces. transforming opportunity. Rather than wait for the new global order to come and then see how to fit (8) Science and scientists should be demystified. in it, scientists should be influential in attaining a Scientists are neither geniuses, savants nor any other different world where science has the importance type of superior beings by definition, but professio- that it deserves. A potential drawback is that scien- nals of science. Scientific performance should be tists are human beings and, as such, subjective and part of quotidian life. Scientific advances should corruptible. This is not expected to change in the be part of the current cultural background of every near future but it is hoped that natural selection citizen in the world and scientists should be directly will operate better in a context in which external and actively involved in achieving such goal. influences and their corresponding unsafe incentives are out of the scientific play. (9) The results of scientific research should be transferred and explained to society in a clear and objective manner. Transfer should be preferably REFERENCES straightforward, without any intermediaries, which Curry, S. 2009. Widen the channels of communication with are usually poorly informed or submitted to external society. Nature 458: 702-703. constraints or biases (e.g. mass media). The ultimate EU (European Union) 2009. Research for sustainability and the objective of popular science is not to downgrade European Union: From wish to will. A manifesto. Manifesto scientific performance to make it understandable presented at the Conference “Sustainable Development: a for any citizen in the world, but to increase the Challenge for European Research” (Brussels, May 26–28 2009). Retrieved March 15, 2012, from http://ec.europa. cultural level of all these citizens to allow them eu/research/sd/conference/2009/pdf/scientific_commit- understanding science as is. tee_manifesto.pdf#view=fit&pagemode=none

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Henderson, M. 2012. The geek manifesto: why science matters. Speth, J. G. 2009. The bridge at the edge of the world. Capital- Bantam Press, London. ism, the environment, and crossing from crisis to sustain- Jacobs, H. 2012. Things we know we know. E. M. B. O. Rep. ability. Yale University Press, New Haven. 13: 279. Stehr, N. 1978. The ethos of Science revisited: social and Johns, D. 2009. The international year of biodiversity – from cognitive norms. Sociol. Inq. 48: 172-196. talk to action. Conservation Biol. 24: 338-340. UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Merton, R. K. 1973. The sociology of science: theoretical Organization) 2000. World Conference on Science. Science for and empirical investigations. University of Chicago Press, the twenty-first century. A new commitment. UNESCO, Paris. Chicago. Urama, K. C., Ogbu, O., Bijker, W., Alfonsi, A., Gomes, N. Orr, D. 2009. Retrospect and prospect: the unbearable lightness & Ozor, N. 2010. The African manifesto for science, tech- of conservation. Conservation Biol. 23: 1349-1351. nology and innovation. African Technology Policy Studies Parker, J. 2002. How much is a scientist worth? E. M. B. O. Network, Nairobi. Rep. 3: 1012-1015. Watson, J., Boland, M., Burns, C. et al. 2008. A science Rull, V. 2010. El mito del desarrollo sostenible. Collect. Bot. manifesto, or plan for the recovery of New Zealand science. (Barcelona) 29: 103-109. Royal Society of New Zealand, Wellington. Rull, V. 2011. Sustainability, capitalism and evolution. E. M. Winston, R. 2010. Bad ideas? An arresting history of our B. O. Rep. 12: 103-106. inventions. Bantam Books, London.

Collectanea Botanica vol. 31 (2012): 121-125, ISSN: 0010-0730, doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2012.v31.011

Letters

Are we willing to build a better future?

Valentı´ Rull

Botanic Institute of Barcelona (IBB-CSIC-ICUB), Pg. del Migdia s/n, 08038 Barcelona, Spain

In their recent article in TREE, Nekola et al. [1] contend active ﬁeld of research with the involvement of individuals

that Malthusian limits and Darwinian innovation are two with a wide range of professional interests, including

major forces in population dynamics, and that their in- economy, ecology, sociology, law, philosophy, and many

terplay is central to determining whether humans will be others, who are brought together within the ‘Research &

able to establish sustainable relations with the ﬁnite Degrowth’ academic association (http://www.degrowth.eu).

Earth. According to these authors, two crucial questions Degrowth defenders believe that human progress is possi-

are: what are the growth limits? And, what if they are ble without economic growth and suggest that a balanced

met? Nekola et al. also propose three strategies for decline of both production and consumption can promote

a sustainable future: ‘(i) negative population growth for human welfare and improve ecological conditions both

a number of generations, followed by zero growth; (ii) a locally and globally, in the short and long term [7]. This

steady-state economy based on sustainable use of renew- movement is also well structured from a practical perspec-

able energy and material resources; and (iii) new social tive, with concrete proposals and working programs aimed

norms that favour the welfare of the entire global popu- at a profound societal transformation [8]. Steady-state

lation over that of speciﬁc individuals and groups’. The economy has been also widely considered, primarily from

authors largely rely on biological and/or cultural evolu- an economical angle [9].

tion to attain such goals. The urgent need for new social norms leading to global

The concerns raised by Nekola et al. have already been social justice has been equally evaluated and is now a

addressed elsewhere and more information is available for vividly debated issue. The options are varied, ranging

discussion; their paper may produce the wrong impression from adaptation proposals avoiding open confrontation

that the topic is much less developed that it actually is and with the currently dominant socio-economic system, to

that their proposals are original. These authors also fail to frontal opposition to global capitalism [6,10]. Intermedi-

explain why future evolution should necessarily lead to ate solutions, as for example, the selective use of particu-

more sustainable practices. lar economic tools to deal with the ‘commons’, have been

The issue of the limits for human growth on Earth was also envisaged [11].

recently analysed in depth in a keystone paper by The claim by Nekola et al. that ‘humanity has not yet

Rockstro¨m et al. [2], who deﬁned nine critical planetary evolved the genetic or cultural adaptations needed to

boundaries. Quantitative estimates for seven of these accomplish these tasks’ is teleological, because it implic-

limits (CO2 atmospheric concentration, ocean acidiﬁca- itly assumes that humans are ultimately called to be in

tion, stratospheric ozone, biogeochemical nitrogen and harmony with nature and that we will evolve in such

phosphorus cycles, freshwater use, land-system change, direction. This belief seems to have its roots in the

and rates of biodiversity loss) were provided. The other Judaeo-Christian tradition of human ‘destiny’, rather

two, chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading, than being based on the available scientiﬁc evidence

could not be quantiﬁed. According to these authors, three showing that evolution is nondirectional, contingent,

of these boundaries have been already transgressed, and unpredictable [12]. By contrast, evolution has already

namely the rates of climate change and biodiversity loss, provided the tools to use to be aware of the situation, to

and changes in the global nitrogen cycle. Another limit envisage potential solutions, and to make the correspond-

that will have already been crossed is land use, because ing decisions. The question is whether we are willing to use

the terrestrial biosphere made the critical transition from these tools to assure a better future.

mostly wild to mostly anthropogenic early during the

20th century [3]. References

Population control has also been widely treated. For 1 Nekola, J.C. et al. (2013) The Malthusian–Darwinian dynamic and the

trajectory of civilization. Trends Ecol. Evol. 28, 127–130

example, several researchers believe that a new and global

2 Rockstro¨m, J. et al. (2009) Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe

‘green revolution’ is the solution to sustain the predicted

operating space for Humanity. Ecol. Soc. 14, 32

increase in human population for the middle of this century

3 Ellis, E.C. et al. (2010) Anthropogenic transformation of the biomes,

[4]; however, this would only aggravate the situation with- 1700 to 2000. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 19, 589–606

out the corresponding population controls [5]. With or 4 Beddington, J. (2010) Food security. Contributions from science to a

new greener revolution. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 365, 61–71

without a ‘green revolution’, population control seems to

5 Rull, V. (2010) Food security: green revolution drawbacks. Science

be critical for a safe future [6].

328, 169

The need for negative growth has been extensively 6 Ehrlich, P. and Ehrlich, A.H. (2013) Can a collapse of global civilization

considered under the name of ‘degrowth’ [7], a particularly be avoided? Proc. R. Soc. B 280, 20122845

7 Schneider, F. et al. (2010) Crisis or opportuniy? Economic degrowth for

Corresponding author: Rull, V. ([email protected]). social equity and ecological sustainability. J. Clean Prod. 18, 511–518

443

Letters Trends in Ecology & Evolution August 2013, Vol. 28, No. 8

8 Martinez-Alier, J. et al. (2010) Sustainable de-growth: mapping the 11 Costanza, R. (2009) Could climate change capitalism? Nature 458,

context, criticisms and future prospects of an emergent paradigma. 1107–1108

Ecol. Econ. 69, 1741–1747 12 Mayr, E. (2004) What Makes Biology Unique? Cambridge University

9 Lawn, P. (2010) Facilitating the transition to a steady-state economy: Press

some macroeconomic fundamentals. Ecol. Econ. 69, 931–936

10 Rull, V. (2011) Sustainability, capitalism and evolution. EMBO Rep.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.006 Trends in Ecology &

12, 103–106

Evolution, August 2013, Vol. 28, No. 8

Global sustainability versus the Malthusian–Darwinian

dynamic: a reply to Rull

1 1,2 1 1,3

Jeffrey C. Nekola , James H. Brown , Astrid Kodric-Brown , and Jordan G. Okie

Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA

Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA

School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

Although the comments by Rull are interesting [1], they such adaptations are inevitable, and then invokes Judeo-

miss the intent and main point of our paper [2], which are Christian principles in doing so. Nothing in evolutionary

to show how the Malthusian–Darwinian dynamic (MDD) theory suggests this interpretation. Rather, we simply

applies to global human ecology and may limit viable make the factual statement that human society has not

sustainability options. Rull is correct that many of the at this time developed the adaptations required to place

facts and interpretations presented in our paper have been the overall good of the species above the selﬁsh desires of

made by others. We are aware of and have cited most of individuals, families, and social groups. Although such

these across our various human macroecology papers [3– traits may have been adaptive in the past, they are no

5]; it is important to also realize that Science & Society longer advantageous in our ‘now full world’ [2].

Forum pieces in TREE are capped at 15 references, and

References

thus this work cannot and should not be seen as a compre-

1 Rull, V. (2013) Are we willing to build a better future? Trends Ecol. Evol.

hensive review of the subject.

28, 443–444, this issue

We strongly feel that the issues raised by the MDD in

2 Nekola, J.C. et al. (2013) The Malthusian–Darwinian dynamic and the

relation to the sustainability of modern human culture trajectory of civilization. Trends Ecol. Evol. 28, 127–130

should be brought to the fore because the pervasive inﬂu- 3 Brown, J.H. et al. (2011) Energetic limits to economic growth. BioScience

61, 19–26

ence of our biological heritage has not usually been consid-

4 Burnside, W.R. et al. (2012) Human macroecology: linking pattern and

ered, especially by social scientists.

process in big-picture human ecology. Biol. Rev. 87, 194–208

Although we do indeed state that ‘humanity has not yet 5 Burger, J.R. et al. (2012) The macroecology of sustainability. PLoS Biol.

evolved the genetic or cultural adaptations needed to 10, e1001345

accomplish these tasks’, we are confused as to why Rull

assumes that this statement implies that our belief is that

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.017 Trends in Ecology &

Corresponding author: Nekola, J.C. ([email protected]).

Evolution, August 2013, Vol. 28, No. 8

Focus Issue: Overconﬁdence and deception in behaviour

Unbiased individuals use valuable information when

making decisions: a reply to Johnson and Fowler

1 2 2

James A.R. Marshall , Pete C. Trimmer , and Alasdair I. Houston

Department of Computer Science and Kroto Research Institute, University of Shefﬁeld, Shefﬁeld, UK

School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

In their letter to TREE, Johnson and Fowler (J&F) [1] raise cognitive biases arise in their model simply because indi-

several issues relating to our criticism [2] of their model of viduals have to be biased to take account of unequal costs

the evolution of overconﬁdence [3]. Most of these are dis- and beneﬁts of different decision outcomes.

tractions and misinterpret our fundamental criticism, that Their substantive points are that: (i) Bayesian decision-

making is unrealistic in nature and, hence, heuristics are

Corresponding author: Marshall, J.A.R. ([email protected]).

444 Collectanea Botanica Cartas al director vol. 32 (2013): 121–125 ISSN: 0010-0730 doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2013.v32.011

La ciencia, esa extranjera

V. RULL

Institut Botànic de Barcelona (IBB-CSIC-ICUB), pg. del Migdia, s/n, ES-08038 Barcelona, España

E-mail: [email protected]

Últimamente, se ha escrito mucho sobre la mala en cambio, la Secretaría de Estado para la ciencia, situación que atraviesa la ciencia en España debido Carmen Vela, ha intentado presentar la mala situa- a la crisis económica. No abundaremos en ello, sólo ción del sector como una oportunidad para mejorar destacaremos dos hechos que han sido decisivos. Uno el sistema de investigación anteponiendo la calidad es la progresiva disminución de la inversión en I+D+i a la cantidad (Vela, 2012), lo cual no sólo no ha iniciada en 2009, que para 2012 ya había llegado al convencido a la comunidad científica española, sino 40% (Pain, 2012) y este año ha sido ampliamente que además ha contribuido a deteriorar todavía más superada. Como consecuencia, prácticamente se ha la imagen de los responsables de la ciencia española, detenido la incorporación de nuevos investigadores a nivel internacional. al sistema y el presupuesto para proyectos de in- Las posibles consecuencias sociales y económicas vestigación ha disminuido de forma sustancial. El de esta política de debilitamiento progresivo del otro agravio, que todavía no ha sido suficientemente sistema de investigación ya han sido ampliamente comprendido y valorado, es la reciente desaparición analizadas y debatidas, con la negligencia de la cla- del Ministerio de Ciencia (que, durante los últimos se política como cuestión de fondo. El propósito de gobiernos, ha tenido diversas denominaciones como este ensayo es muy diferente. Se trata de presentar Ciencia y Tecnología, Educación y Ciencia o Ciencia el menosprecio de la clase política española (sin e Innovación) y la transferencia de la gestión de la importar el signo) por la ciencia como un reflejo, y ciencia al Ministerio de Economía, cuya prioridad también una consecuencia, del desdén de la sociedad es satisfacer las deudas con los bancos acreedores española, en general, hacia la investigación científica para seguir recibiendo nuevos créditos. Dentro de ese y el conocimiento, lo cual tiene raíces históricas muy ministerio, a la ciencia le tocan las sobras, cuando las profundas que llegan hasta los propios inicios de la hay, sin respetar la asignación económica estipulada ciencia moderna, en el siglo XVI. inicialmente para I+D+i. El trato que reciben la ciencia y el conocimiento en La situación actual otros países culturalmente más avanzados se podría ilustrar con las palabras de la Ministra de Educación Basta una ojeada a los eurobarómetros y las encuestas e Investigación de Alemania, Katharina Koufen, nacionales publicadas durante los últimos años para cuando, al referirse a la falta de petróleo en su país, darse cuenta de lo poco que importa la ciencia en manifestó que su mayor valor era el conocimiento y este país. Por ejemplo, el interés por la ciencia en su principal objetivo convertirse en uno de los líderes España estaba por debajo del 10% durante la última científicos mundiales (Sarchet, 2012). En España, década y aumentó ligeramente hasta un 13% en 2010 122 V. RULL

(FECYT, 2011), lo cual sigue siendo insignificante. peor. En el siglo XX, la ciencia se consideraba una En todos los eurobarómetros relacionados con el actividad marginal, lo cual dio lugar a un estereotipo tema, España queda situada por debajo de la media nacional que generó dos posturas diferentes, tanto europea, siempre cerca o por debajo de países como en los científicos como en la sociedad: un complejo Bulgaria, Estonia, Grecia, Irlanda, Lituania, Malta, de inferioridad, que inhibió bastante la actividad Polonia, Portugal, Rumanía o Turquía (EC, 2005, intelectual, y una autosuficiencia arrogante, cuya 2007, 2010; EU, 2012). Lógicamente, esto reper- manifestación más conocida es la desgraciadamente cute en una notable ignorancia científica, incluso famosa frase de Miguel de Unamuno: «��¡Q��ue�� inven- a niveles básicos, como lo demuestra el hecho de ten ellos!», refiriéndose a los países culturalmente que aproximadamente un tercio de los encuestados más desarrollados (Elena & Ordóñez, 1990). Como todavía creen que el Sol gira alrededor de la Tierra resultado, se produjo un �«��enquistamiento intelec- o que los primeros humanos convivían con los dino- tual», en palabras de Santiago Ramón y Cajal, que saurios, entre otras barbaridades (EC, 2005). Existen mantuvo el país aislado de la corriente científica muchos más datos igualmente reveladores en las internacional. encuestas mencionadas sobre aspectos particulares Durante las últimas décadas, con el advenimiento de la ciencia y las relaciones ciencia-sociedad. No de la democracia, la situación de la ciencia en Es- nos detendremos en su análisis, pero la consulta paña ha mejorado de forma espectacular, pero las de estos documentos es recomendable, tanto por profundas cicatrices de cinco siglos de oscurantismo lo ilustrativa como por lo sorprendente. son todavía visibles en nuestra sociedad. El com- Por lo que respecta a la consideración social del plejo de inferioridad y el sentimiento de arrogancia científico nacional, se podría decir que es nula. han menguado aunque no desaparecido, pero lo En la última encuesta sobre las profesiones más más preocupante es que el cambio parece haberse valoradas por el público en España figuran (por producido únicamente en los sectores científicos y este orden): médico, profesor, arquitecto, albañil, no en la sociedad en general, cuyo interés por la camarero, barrendero, plomero, escritor, policía, ciencia y los científicos nacionales sigue siendo abogado, periodista y juez (CIS, 2013). La profesión prácticamente nulo. Muchos sectores públicos toda- de científico ni siquiera aparece en la encuesta. En vía están convencidos de que lo normal es que los países como EEUU, Gran Bretaña o Alemania, el descubrimientos científicos relevantes tengan lugar científico normalmente se encuentra en los tres en países extranjeros y consideran el mantenimiento primeros lugares. Económicamente, ser científico en de un sistema de investigación propio con fondos España tampoco es muy tentador. Una vez más, nos públicos innecesario y oneroso. En estos sectores, encontramos por debajo de la media europea, en la la investigación científica nacional se percibe como posición 18 de 33, junto con Italia, Portugal y Malta una actividad casi lúdica, para la diversión personal (EC, 2007). Como referencia externa, un científico de los científicos, pero sin ningún impacto social. australiano, estadounidense o japonés gana el doble Muchos políticos piensan lo mismo o son conscien- o más que uno español. Si se ajusta el sueldo por tes de que, en estas circunstancias, arremeter contra el coste de la vida, incluso la India es más atractiva la ciencia o ignorarla no comporta ninguna pérdida económicamente que España para un científico. Hay de votos, por lo que no representa un problema. que resaltar que estos datos corresponden a unos cinco años atrás y que en la actualidad, después de El legado histórico las rebajas de salarios de los empleados públicos, la situación es todavía peor. Una proporción muy El menosprecio por la ciencia en España se puede elevada de científicos españoles son funcionarios, atribuir, por una parte, a la falta de perspectivas a una condición tradicionalmente mal vista por la largo plazo (que derivan en la priorización del be- sociedad española, lo que no hace sino agravar la neficio económico inmediato y el consumismo) y, situación. por otra, a las carencias educativas heredadas de una A pesar de esto, hay que reconocer que, desde larga historia de oscuridad. Desde una perspectiva hace unas décadas, la situación de la ciencia en histórica, la indiferencia de la sociedad española España ha mejorado ostensiblemente con respecto por la ciencia no es en absoluto sorprendente, como al siglo pasado, cuando el panorama era mucho veremos a continuación.

Collectanea Botanica vol. 32 (2013): 121–125, ISSN: 0010-0730, doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2013.v32.011 La ciencia, esa extranjera 123

España perdió el tren de la ciencia (o más bien, ropeos y Norteamérica, estos porcentajes ya habían nunca lo llegó a tomar) ya desde el siglo XVI, cuan- sido reducidos a menos del 50% (Rueda, 1996). do el país entero estaba abocado a la explotación de A finales del siglo XIX y principios del XX, la las riquezas del Nuevo Mundo, mientras en otros llamada «Edad de Plata» pareció proporcionar un países europeos se estaban sentando las bases de atisbo de esperanza, con la creación de organis- la ciencia moderna. El siglo XVI se conoce en la mos como la «Institución Libre de Enseñanza» historia de España como el «Siglo de Oro», por el y la «Junta para la Ampliación de Estudios», gran florecimiento de las artes y la literatura, auge que defendían la libertad académica frente a las que no fue acompañado por el desarrollo científico, restricciones religiosas, y la apertura hacia países lo que derivó en el aislamiento del resto de Europa, europeos científicamente más desarrollados. Fue donde ya se estaba produciendo la gran «��Revolu��- precisamente en este período cuando Ramón y Cajal ción Científica». Innovaciones cruciales como las recibió el Premio Nobel (1906), el único concedido de Copérnico o Galileo llegaron tarde y cayeron a un científico español trabajando en España (el con frecuencia en terreno intelectualmente hostil, otro fue Severo Ochoa, en 1959, cuya carrera se debido al predominio del fanatismo religioso, por desarrolló en los EEUU). Sin embargo, la alegría lo que no llegaron a desarrollarse (Nieto-Galán, duró poco, y este corto renacimiento fue abortado 2008). Por otra parte, las innovaciones navales y por la Guerra Civil (1936-1939) y la subsiguiente descubrimientos geográficos llevados a cabo desde dictadura de Franco hasta 1975, que reestableció el España no se aprovecharon para desarrollar una dominio del fundamentalismo católico y volvió a tradición científica. Las riquezas traídas de Amé- aislar el país de la escena internacional. Tal como rica tampoco sirvieron para incentivar la ciencia, había ocurrido siglos antes, muchos políticos e ni siquiera las artes y el comercio, debido en gran intelectuales (artistas, escritores, científicos, etc.) parte a la persecución y deportación en masa de los fueron perseguidos y ejecutados o tuvieron que no-católicos por la Inquisición y a los impedimentos exiliarse a otros países. La Iglesia Católica recuperó para el establecimiento de profesionales extranjeros. su tradicional control del sistema educativo, dificul- Como consecuencia, en el siglo XVII, el progreso tando de nuevo la penetración de avances científicos del comercio, las ciencias y las artes, ya se había como el Darwinismo o las teorías materialistas de detenido totalmente (Mason, 1962). El país nunca la energía, cuyas consecuencias teológicas eran llegó a recuperarse de este golpe debido al poder de abiertamente contrarias a la tradición religiosa la Inquisición, creada en el siglo XV para erradicar (Nieto-Galán, 2008). cualquier tipo de conocimiento que no estuviera Desde la muerte de Franco y el establecimiento basado en la tradición católica. Aunque parezca de la democracia, el renacimiento científico ex- mentira, esta institución no fue abolida en España perimentado no tiene parangón en la historia de hasta mediados del siglo XIX. España, pero es todavía insuficiente para erradicar La «Ilustración» (siglos XVII y XVIII), cuyo las consecuencias de la larga historia de oscuridad principal objetivo fue la defensa de la razón por y fundamentalismo religioso (Otero, 2001). Por encima de la fe y la tradición religiosa, jugó un ejemplo, la constitución española actual mantiene papel clave en el desarrollo de la ciencia moderna el carácter no confesional de la democracia pero, de Europa y Norteamérica. Sin embargo, en Espa- al mismo tiempo, reconoce explícitamente un tra- ña, este movimiento fue considerado un fenómeno tamiento especial para la Iglesia Católica, lo cual foráneo y su influencia fue mínima (Nieto-Galán, se refleja, entre otras cosas, en el apoyo financiero 2008). Una vez más, el fanatismo católico prevaleció a dicha iglesia con fondos públicos procedentes sobre las innovaciones fundamentales en matemá- de los impuestos tanto de católicos (un 70% de la ticas, física, química y ciencias naturales (Newton, población) como de profesantes de otras religiones Lavoisier, Linné…), que volvieron a llegar con (3%) y de no-creyentes o ateos (25%) (CIS, 2013). retraso, malogrando otra oportunidad para subir al En efecto, por contradictorio que pueda parecer, la tren del conocimiento. Las consecuencias fueron Iglesia Católica recibe más de 10.000 millones de graves, extensas y duraderas. Por ejemplo, hacia la euros por año (más del 1% del PIB) del estado, mitad del siglo XIX, el analfabetismo en España libres de impuestos y sin recortes por la crisis, lo superaba el 90%, mientras que en otros países eu- que representa aproximadamente el doble del pre-

Collectanea Botanica vol. 32 (2013): 121–125, ISSN: 0010-0730, doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2013.v32.011 124 V. RULL supuesto para I+D+i. A esto hay que añadir unos de los científicos y con un presupuesto autónomo 250.000 euros anuales que donan voluntariamente que no se podría utilizar para otros fines, como muchos contribuyentes. Sería interesante hacer una ocurre actualmente en el Ministerio de Economía. encuesta sobre el grado de apoyo público de esta Por otra parte, para adoptar una solución de este inexplicable coyuntura, pero no sería de extrañar tipo hace falta una confianza social y política en que la situación fuera popular. Primero, porque la los científicos que, en España, no existe. Una de constitución fue sometida a referéndum y aprobada las preguntas del Eurobarómetro de 2005 era si (aunque seguramente muchos votantes no tenían ni los científicos debían ser libres para decidir el idea de su contenido) y segundo porque, en general, tipo de investigación a llevar a cabo, siempre que la fe todavía parece disputar su espacio a la razón respetaran los principios éticos requeridos. En la en la sociedad española. Por ejemplo, casi la mitad mayoría de países europeos, incluyendo Turquía, de los españoles encuestados para el Eurobarómetro cerca del 70% de los encuestados manifestaba su de 2005 declararon estar de acuerdo con la afirma- acuerdo, mientras que en los más desarrollados ción: «dependemos demasiado de la ciencia y no culturalmente (norte y centro-Europa), el acuerdo lo suficiente de la fe» (EC, 2005). llegaba casi al 90%. El país más desconfiado, en solitario y con diferencia, era España, con un 55%, El futuro poco más de la mitad de la muestra (EC, 2005). A más largo plazo, lo que se requiere es una El escenario no es precisamente esperanzador transformación profunda que eleve el nivel cultural para el progreso científico, pero los investigadores de una sociedad con una conciencia científica todavía españoles no desfallecen y muchos se han ganado muy primitiva, por no decir inexistente. Los actuales un merecido reconocimiento internacional gracias políticos tampoco liderarán una iniciativa de este tipo, a su talento y esfuerzo individual, y de sus grupos ya que son conscientes de que en una sociedad más de investigación, más que a políticas científicas culta no tendrían cabida. El desafío lo deben asumir adecuadas. Como resultado, España está entre los 10 los sectores que son conscientes de la importancia primeros países del mundo, de 238, en número de del conocimiento y los peligros de la ignorancia, publicaciones científicas para el periodo 1996-2011 no sólo en lo referente a consecuencias económicas (SCImago, 2007). Esto demuestra que el tradicional negativas, sino también a la libertad personal y el complejo de inferioridad no tiene sentido (por lo que libre albedrío. Tal vez ésta sería la única forma de se refiere a la arrogancia, rima con ignorancia). La renovar y mejorar las actuales opciones políticas y comunidad científica española ha demostrado con de elevar el nivel de las opciones de voto (y de los creces estar dispuesta y preparada para afrontar el propios votos), lo cual seguramente conduciría no reto de situar la ciencia nacional al mismo nivel sólo a un mejor estatus para la ciencia, sino también a que de la de los países más avanzados, tanto en una sociedad menos proclive a la alienación religiosa cantidad como en calidad; el lastre sigue siendo el y la manipulación política. apoyo social y político. Si la famosa frase del filósofo sardo Joseph de A corto plazo, existen algunas ideas interesan- Maestre que (en democracia) «los pueblos tienen los tes como la creación de una academia nacional gobiernos que se merecen» es cierta, nuestra mejor de ciencia formada por científicos para regir los opción es avanzar activamente hacia una sociedad destinos de la ciencia (Moro-Martín, 2012), como más formada e informada, con la esperanza de que ocurre en tantos países europeos y de otros conti- ello conducirá a una clase política más calificada nentes, incluidos muchos que están por debajo de que la actual y mejor preparada para enfrentar un España en cuanto a indicadores económicos. Sin futuro en el que la generación de conocimiento y embargo, una solución de este tipo difícilmente su adecuada gestión serán factores decisivos. De lo sería adoptada por la actual generación de polí- contrario, volveremos a perder el tren, que inexora- ticos, dada su falta de interés y la nula presión blemente se dirige hacia la llamada «Sociedad del de quien los vota, unidos a un afán de control Conocimiento», de nuevo nos quedaremos solos político absoluto sobre las cuentas y la orientación en la estación y esta vez no podremos culpar a las de la investigación. La creación de una academia monarquías absolutistas, las dictaduras o la Inqui- semejante significaría dejar la ciencia en manos sición, sólo a nosotros mismos.

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REFERENCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS FECYT (Fundación Española para la Ciencia y la Tecnología) 2011. Percepción social de la ciencia y la tecnología 2010. CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas) 2013. Ba- Fundación Española para la Ciencia y la Tecnología, Madrid. rómetro de Febrero. Distribuciones marginales. Estu- Mason, S. 1962. A history of the sciences. Collier Books, dio nº 2978. Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, New York. Madrid. Consultado el 15 de mayo de 2013, en http:// Moro-Martín, A. 2012. Spanish changes are scientific suicide. www.cis.es/cis/export/sites/default/-Archivos/Margin- Nature 482: 277. ales/2960_2979/2978/Es2978.pdf Nieto-Galán, A. 2008. The history of science in Spain, a critical EC (European Comission) 2005. Europeans, science and tech- overview. Nuncius 23: 211–236. nology (Special Eurobarometer 224/Wave 63.1). European Otero, L. E. 2001. La destrucción de la ciencia en España. Las Comission, Brussels. consecuencias del triunfo militar de la España franquista. EC (European Comission) 2007. Remuneration of researchers Historia y Comunicación Social 6: 149–186. in the public and private sectors. Final Report. European Pain, E. 2012. Research cuts will cause exodus from Spain. Commission, Brussels. Science 336: 139–140. EC (European Comission) 2010. Science and technology Rueda, G. 1996. El reinado de Isabel II: La España liberal report (Special Eurobarometer 340/Wave 73.1). European (Historia de España, 22). Historia 16/Temas de Hoy, Madrid. Comission, Brussels. Sarchet, P. 2012. Germany rising. New Scientist 214: 54–55. Elena, A. & Ordóñez, J. 1990. History of science in Spain: a SCImago 2007. SJR – SCImago Journal & Country Rank. preliminary survey. The British Journal for the History of SCImago Research Group. Consultado el 19 de mayo de Science 22: 187–196. 2013, en http://www.scimagojr.com EU (European Union) 2012. Innovation Union scoreboard Vela, C. 2012. Turn Spains budget crisis into an opportunity. 2011. European Union, Brussels. Nature 486: 7.

Collectanea Botanica vol. 32 (2013): 121–125, ISSN: 0010-0730, doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2013.v32.011 Science in Spain: a historical debt*

Valentí Rull Botanic Institute of Barcelona (IBB-CSIC-ICUB), Passeig del Migdia s/n, 08038 Barcelona, Spain. E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract. The political contempt for scientific research in Spain is likely the reflection of the general indifference of Spain’s society for science and knowledge, which has deep historical roots. Results of national and international surveys on the public perception of science show that Spain is well below the European average in most items. This is not surprising if we analyse the history the country, which has been largely dominated by Catholic fundamentalism favoured by monarchies and dictatorships since the 16th century, when the foundations of modern science were settled. The scientific recovery experienced in the last 35 years of democracy has been spectacular but still insufficient to eradicate the social sequels of the long history of scientific darkness. A deep social transformation and a general public cultural upgrading is needed to attain a society less prone to alienation and manipulation, and a more qualified political class.

Keywords: Science valuation, science policy, religious fundamentalism, Spain

Introduction

In Spain, science has been one of the main victims of the ongoing economic crisis demonstrating that research and innovation are not priorities for the country’s main political actors. The issue has transcended the national level attaining international attention, and has been debated in general scientific journals such Science and Nature (Moro-Martín 2012; Pain 2012; Vela 2012). This attention is most likely due to the gravity of the situation and the possibility of aborting the remarkable development that science has attained in Spain in recent decades. The hot point has been the comparatively high budget reduction experienced during the last four years and its potential catastrophic consequences for the science system itself. The more developed European countries insist that investment in research and development (R&D) is crucial for overcoming the current crisis. For example, the German Minister of Education and Research, Katharina Koufen, referring to the country’s lack of oil, emphasised that Germany’s value is knowledge and its goal is to become one of the top nations in science (Sarchet 2012). In Spain, however, budget cuts to science are continuous and harmful. Since 2009, R&D cuts have been devastating, totalling an almost 40% reduction by 2012 (Pain 2012), and the approved budgets are not always executed in full. For example, this year, only 10% of the 2012 approved budget for R&D projects on basic research has been delivered, instead of the 40% that is typical for the first year. The 2013 call for R&D projects has not been launched yet and there is no any official information on it. There is also a delay in the payment of Spain’s allotment to the European Science Foundation (ESF) that has led to the temporal suspension of ESF funding to the country. Furthermore, the former Ministry of Science and Innovation was dismantled two years ago and the administration of R&D has been handed over to a State Secretary in the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, whose priority is not R&D but meeting the economic demands of the international creditor banks to keep receiving loans. Science Secretary Carmen Vela has attempted to promote the R&D budget cuts as an opportunity to improve the research system by focusing on quality rather than quantity (Vela 2012) but this has not convinced the scientific sectors who warn that the continuity of the entire Spain’s scientific system is at risk. So far, the potential scientific and economic consequences of such a collapse have been discussed sufficiently both nationally and internationally, and most critiques have been

*Translated and updated from: Rull, V. 2013. La ciencia, esa extranjera. Collectanea Botanica, vol. 32 (accepted July 2013). addressed primarily to policy makers. However, part of societal responsibility has not been properly addressed and it constitutes the core of this essay. The main point is that the traditional undervaluation of science by the Spanish political class reflects the general indifference of Spain’s society for science, which may have deep historical roots. The discussion begins with the more worrisome results of recent surveys on the public perception of science conducted during the last years. The resulting situation is then evaluated from a historical perspective, considering the last five centuries, during which modern science has emerged and evolved to its present state (Mason 2012). This essay is a harsh and painful, yet as rigorous as possible, self-criticism attempted as a first step in the way to improve the situation. In addition to highlighting intrinsic differences among countries and their respective historical processes, the present critical introspection may help others to analyse potential similarities and disparities and therefore determine the causes for their present realities as well as suitable solutions.

Public perception of science in Spain

According to the last available survey, fewer than 10% of Spanish people were interested in science and technology during the last decade, and the percentage increased slightly to approximately 13% by 2010 (FECYT, 2011). The 2010 Eurobarometer ranked Spain below average, and the country was not among the 20 European countries most interested in science and technology (EC 20101). According to the survey, Spain is one of five countries (with Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria and Romania) with less informed people (47%) for the item ‘new discoveries and technologies’. In the 2005 Eurobarometer, almost 40% of people surveyed in Spain believed that science was not important in their everyday lives (EU 2012). In general, there is a correlation between education level and interest in science, with countries such as Great Britain and the Netherlands possessing high ratings of both, and Spain and Greece wearning lower scores (Bauer et al. 1994). When analysing the results by country using a ‘scientific knowledge index’, Spain (34%) is again below the EU average (42%) together with Estonia, Austria, Poland, Ireland and Greece; in this case, maximum scores were obtained by Scandinavian countries (55-70%), whereas minimum values were for Malta, Latvia and Cyprus (<20%) (EC, 2005). Scandinavian countries and Germany, are also leaders in European innovation, whereas Spain is below average, along with Italy, Czech Republic, Hungary, Greece, Malta, Slovakia and Portugal (EU 2012). Specially indicative are facts as for example that 33% of surveyed Spanians still believe that the Sun goes around the Earth, 27% believe that mother’s genes decide whether a baby is a boy or a girl, 29% think that earliest humans and dinosaurs lived at the same time, 46% believe that antibiotics kill viruses, and 34% accept that all radioactivity is human-made (EC 2005). Concerning scientific knowledge per se, fundamental science is not presently a value for Spanish society. Beyond a few immediate medical and technological applications, the significance of basic science for society is not generally acknowledged. Indeed, the items considered by the public to be high research priorities were health, energy and the environment, whereas fundamental science received only 4.5% of votes and was ranked behind communications, food science, social sciences, security and defence, and transport; only aerospace technology was a lower priority than fundamental science (FECYT 2011). The infeasibility of applying science without background knowledge previously acquired through basic research is obviously not recognised. This is demonstrated explicitly when the population is surveyed about whether basic research is essential for the development of new technologies. Spain had the second highest rate of disagreement among EU countries, and only Portugal was the rate higher. Average disagreement in Europe (including both EU and non-EU countries) was 50%, but in Spain only 33% disagreed, similar to Portugal, Latvia and Turkey (EC 2005). In addition, interest in science does not necessarily guarantee support for public investment in science (Muñoz et al. 2012). For example, only 28% of those surveyed in Spain believe that science and technology (including health, energy and the environment) should be among the

2 three sectors o n which public spending must be increased; the remaining 72% believe that public works, citizen security and the environment must have higher priority for increased public funding (FECYT 2011). Another issue is the social status and public valuation of scientists. According to the most recent survey published in February, the most valued occupation in Spain is medical doctor (82% of the votes) followed by teacher (73-75% depending on the grade level), architect (66%), home- builder, waiter, sweeper or plumber (64% each), writer, policeman (63% each), lawyer (62%), and journalist or judge (59% each) (CIS 2013). The occupation ‘scientist’ was not even present in the design of the survey, which is highly illustrative of the lack of interest and precludes direct comparison with similar data from other countries. For example, scientist used to be among the top most prestigious professions in countries such as the USA, Great Britain and Germany. As for salaries, Spanish scientists are paid below the European average and very far from the world’s leading countries. The last available synthetic data from Europe correspond to 2006. By that time, the average yearly salary of a Spanish researcher was approximately 35,000 €, some 3000 € below the EU average, and well below other non-EU countries such as Iceland, Israel, Norway and Switzerland, thus occupying the 18th place out of 33 (EC 2007). As external references, the average salaries in Australia and the USA were above 60,000 €, and salaries in Japan were almost double the Spanish average. Other countries with salaries similar to Spain were Italy (slightly above) and Portugal and Malta (slightly below). When these figures were adjusted for the cost of living, they did not change significantly, but India then appeared to be a more attractive country than Spain for a scientist, in economic terms (EC 2007). At present, Spanish scores are even worse because public employees endured several salary cuts during the few last years due to the economic crisis. In addition, according to the 2005 Eurobarometer, the Spanish public’s confidence in scientists is, by far, the lowest in Europe, including Turkey, as is reflected in the response to the statement ‘scientists should be free to carry out the research they wish, provided they respect ethical standards’. Typical values of agreement for EU countries are above 70% (only in five countries agreement rates are between 60% and 70%) and reach almost 90% in some cases. However, in Spain, only 55% of the surveyed people agreed with this question (EC 2005). Aggravating the situation, a high proportion of Spain’s scientists (notably university professors and researchers from governmental institutions) are civil servants (funcionarios), a body that is quite discredited in our country. Spain’s funcionarios are often collectively accused of being lazy and incompetent, which is supposed to be covered up by their unparalleled job security for life and the lack of control in their activities. Therefore, the recent general cuts in their salaries to reduce public spending, as recommended by the creditor banks, have been tolerated, sometimes even applauded, by the public. However, the low public opinion of civil servants is founded on unwarranted clichés, such as the common image of an employee reluctantly serving citizens from a window and working less than part time to earn a full-time salary. Many people seem to ignore (or to forget) that, in a country where most social services are covered by public investment, some of the most respected jobs in Spain as indicated above (CIS 2013), such as health, teaching and security, are generally performed by civil servants. The results and observations described above are highlighted as particularly worrisome trends but, in general, most of the indicators need urgent improvement to attain an average European level. The good news is that there has generally been a significant recovery from the trends of the final decades for the last decades of the past century, which were even worse (Bauer et al. 1994). During the 20th century, science was considered a marginal activity in our country. Such marginalisation was assimilated by many into a national stereotype that generated two types of contrasting reactions: an inferiority complex and the corresponding lack of self- reliance that inhibited intellectual activity, and an arrogant self-sufficiency as manifested in the Miguel de Unamuno’s famous sentence: ‘¡Que inventen ellos!’ (Let them invent!), referring to more developed countries (Elena and Ordóñez 1990). The result has been the ‘intellectual encystment’ of the country, in the words of Santiago Ramón y Cajal, the recipient of the only

3 Nobel Prize (1906) conceded to a Spanish scientist working in Spain (the other Nobel Prize was awarded to Severo Ochoa (1959), who developed his career in the USA). The remarkable scientific development of the last decades, after the establishment of the present democracy, refutes former accusations of scientific incompetence launched against the Spanish by some European intellectuals (Elena and Ordóñez, 1990). However, the consequences of four or more centuries of scientific obscurity are still visible in Spain’s society, in general (Otero 2001). Both the arrogance and the feelings of inferiority remain (the latter reinforced by some European sectors, as for example those that ironically use the acronym PIGS to refer to Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain), but the societal indifference for science seems to be a major drawback. Some social sectors still believe that relevant scientific discoveries occur abroad and that the maintenance of a domestic scientific infrastructure with public funds is unnecessary and dispendious. Therefore, scientific research is perceived as a fanciful activity for the personal enjoyment of scientists with little, if any, societal impact. Many politicians share this view whereas others are aware that, in such circumstances, charging against science does not entail any loss of votes and is therefore not relevant.

Historical insights

The undervaluing of science can be attributed to the lack of a long-term perspective, which results in the prioritisation of consumerism and immediate economic gains, and to educational flaws influenced by a long history of scientific obscurity. From a historical perspective, contempt for science is not surprising. Spain had missed the train of science by the 16th century when the whole country was focused on the exploitation of New World’s gold and silver while the foundations of modern science were being settled in other Euroean countries. In Spanish history, the 16th century is known as the ‘Golden Age’ (Siglo de Oro) due to the flourishing of arts and literature, but science did not flourished in the same way. In spite of several references to items such as cosmography, medicine, cartography, engineering or natural sciences, among others, the truth is that Spain was isolated from the 16th century’s European Scientific Revolution and crucial scientific innovations like those of Copernicus or Galileo ‘came late and often in hostile intellectual settings’ (Nieto-Galán 2008), mainly due to the prevalence of religious fanaticism (Goodman 1988). According to Mason (1962), the remarkable geographic discoveries made by Spain due to its advanced naval industry were not used to develop a scientific tradition. Moreover, goods brought from America served only to encourage the arts and commerce of other countries thus causing Spain’s own industries to fail. Such industries became obsolete when native non-Catholics were persecuted and deported en masse by the Spanish Inquisition, and the establishment of foreign artisans and researchers was severely restricted. In this way, by the 17th century, the progress of commerce, and the arts and sciences was already arrested (Mason 1962). Spain never regained momentum in science due primarily to the power of the Inquisition, which had been created in the 15th century to eradicate any type of knowledge beyond the Catholic tradition by any means and was not abolished until the mid-19th century. The Enlightenment (17th and 18th centuries), the main aim of which was to rely on reason rather than on religious traditions and faith, greatly influenced the development of modern science in Europe and North America. In Spain, however, the Enlightenment was considered a foreign phenomenon with minimal influence (Nieto-Galán 2008). Once more, religious fanaticism prevailed and fundamental innovations in mathematics, physics, chemistry and natural sciences (Newton, Linnaeus, Lavoisier) arrived later thus eliminating another opportunity for scientific and social development. By the middle of the 19th century, illiteracy rates in Spain were above 90%, whereas these rates were already below 50% in other European countries and North America (Rueda 1996). A short revival known as the ‘Silver Age’ started early in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and a number of promising scientific institutions were created, notably the Institución Libre de Eseñanza (created in 1876 to defend academic freedom in the face of any religious, moral o political constraint) and the Junta para la Ampliación de Estudios

4 (created in 1907 to open the door to more developed European countries as a means of encouraging scientific progress). Around that time (1906) Ramón y Cajal received the Nobel Prize in Medicine, ex aequo with the Italian Camilo Golgi, for their contributions to neuroscience. However, this scientific progress was aborted by the Civil War (1936-1939) and Franco’s ensuing dictatorship until 1975, which also had a strong dogmatic religious component and again isolated the country from the international scene. Similar to four centuries earlier, a significant number of intellectuals, including politicians, artists, writers and scientists were persecuted and killed or exiled beyond the Spain’s borders. The Catholic Church consolidated its traditional key control on the educational system, as it had been usual during the 19th century, hampering the establishment of new scientific advances as for example the Darwinism, and materialistic energy and thermodynamic theories, which theological inferences were clearly in opposition to the religious tradition (Nieto-Galán 2008). Since Franco’s death, the cultural revival experienced under the democratic regime has been spectacular but still insufficient to eradicate the effects of the long history of darkness and religious fundamentalism present since the foundation of modern science (Otero 2001). For example, the current Spanish constitution contradictorily maintains the non-confessional character of the country’s democracy and, at the same time, explicitly recognises a special treatment for the Catholic Church as reflected, for example, in financial support with public funds. Indeed, the Catholic Church still receives more than 10,000 million € per year (above 1% of the GDP) from the state, with no cuts and tax-free, which is about twice the current budget for R&D. This fact also has public high public support, as suggested by the results of the 2005 Eurobarometer, in which 46% of surveyed Spaniards believe that ‘we depend too much on science and not enough on faith’, whereas only 21% disagreed (EC 2005). It is also noteworthy that tax payers voluntarily donate around 250,000 € per year more to this church by checking the corresponding box. At present, more than 70% of the Spanians declare themselves as Catholics, whereas only 3% believe in other religions and less than 25% are non-believers or atheists (CIS 2013). In summary, Spain may have a delay in scientific development of at least four centuries, possibly five (here referred to as the historical debt), largely maintained by Catholic fundamentalism, which has been favoured by non-democratic monarchic regimes and a recent dictatorship. Despite of the significant scientific growth experienced since the establishment of the current democracy, approximately 35 years ago, the debt is far from satisfied, as revealed by the sociological indicators described above and others.

Final remarks and potential solutions

The whole picture is not encouraging for scientific progress, but research has continued and has garnered international recognition, particularly in the last decades, due to the talent and effort of individual investigators and research teams, rather than effective scientific policies. As a result, Spain occupies the ninth position in the rank of the world countries with more scientific publications for the period 1996-2011 (SCImago 2007). This has also occurred despite of the inertia created by the persistent institutional endogamy and other hierarchic biases that are difficult to eliminate from Spain’s scientific system as well as the complacent attitude of many scholars who engage the archetypal funcionario misconduct; however, this would merit another essay by itself. In light of the significant advances attained in only 35 years of democracy, the Spanish scientific community has demonstrated that is prepared to face the challenge of improving the status of science, both nationally and internationally. However, this is not reflected in public and political support. In addition to increasing investment in science, other short-term solutions have been proposed, such as the creation of a science council formed by scientists to lead the R&D strategy, as occurs in other European countries (Moro-Martín 2012). However, these proposals will hardly be addressed by the current generation of politicians, given

5 the weak societal concern and their own lack of interest. A broad and deep cultural change upgrading the societal awareness on science is needed to attain the level of R&D development of other countries and to consolidate the path towards a compensation of the historical debt. For obvious reasons, policy makers will not lead such initiative. The challenge is in hands of people aware of the importance of knowledge and the potential dangers of ignorance, including negative effects on the economy, personal freedom and freewill. An eventual cultural shift is not a short-term venture but it may be a good way to renew and improve current political options as well as to promote more thoughtful voting choices, hopefully leading not only to a better status for science but also to a society less prone to religious alienation and political manipulation. If the famous quote of the Sardinian philosopher Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821) that (in a democracy) ‘every nation has the government it deserves’ is true, our main hope is to advance towards a better formed and informed society, in the hope that this will result in a more qualified political class.

References

Bauer, M., Durant, J. & Evans, G. 1994. European public perception of science. International Journal of Public Opinion on Research 6: 163-86. CIS. 2013. Barómetro de Febrero. Resultados preliminares. Tabulación por variables sociodemográficas. Madrid: Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, nº 2978. EC. 2005. Europeans, science and technology. Brussels: European Comission. Special Eurobarometer 224/Wave 63.1 – TNS Opinion & Social. EC. 2007. Remuneration of researchers in the public and private sectors. Final Report. Brussels: European Commission. EC. 2010. Science and Technology Report. Brussels: European Comission. Special Eurobarometer 340/Wave 73.1 – TNS Opinion & Social. Elena, A. & Ordóñez, J. 1990. History of science in Spain: a preliminary survey. British Journal of the History of Science 22: 187-196. EU. 2012. Innovation Union Scoreborad 2011. Brussels: European Union. Enterprise and Industry Magazine, Pro INNO EUROPE. FECYT. 2011. Percepción social de la ciencia y la tecnología 2010. Madrid: Fundación Española para la Ciencia y la Teconolgía. Goodman, D. 1988. Power and penury. Government, technology and society in Phillip II Spain. Cambdridge: Cambridge University Press. Mason, S. 1962. A history of the sciences. New York: Collier Books. Moro-Martín, A. 2012. Spanish changes are scientific suicide. Nature 482: 277. Muñoz A., Moreno, C. & Luján, J. L. 2012. Who is willing to pay for science? On the relationship between public perception of science and the attitude to public funding for science. Public Understanding of Science 21: 242-253. Nieto-Galán, A. 2008. The history of science in Spain, a critical overview. Nuncius 23: 211-236 Otero, L. E. 2001. La destrucción de la ciencia en España. Las consecuencias del triunfo militar de la España franquista. Historia y Comunicación Social 6: 149-186. Pain, E. 2012. Research cuts will cause exodus from Spain. Science 336: 139-140. Rueda, G. 1996. El reinado de Isabel II: La España liberal. Historia de España (Historia 16), vol. 22. Madrid: Temas de Hoy. Sarchet, P. 2012. Germany rising. The New Scientist 2865: 54-55. SCImago. 2007. SJR - SCImago Journal & Country Rank (http://www.scimagojr.com). Retrieved May 19, 2013. Vela, C. 2012. Turn Spains budget crisis into an opportunity. Nature 486: 7.

6 Science & Society

Conservation, human values and democracy

What can turn humankind from the path of environmental exploitation and destruction? Valentı Rull

uman activity is changing the resources, a hypothetical alien observer nd yet, we already have the tools for climate, depleting biodiversity, might come to the conclusion that we do not. dealing with environmental decline— H destroying habitats and poisoning A they are innate to humans: awareness, the earth, the water and the air. It is increas- ome commentators have suggested free will, creativity and ingenuity. The issue ingly understood and accepted that natural that perhaps humans are not yet suffi- is whether we are willing to use these abili- resources are limited and that their use S ciently evolved to leave this self- ties to build a better future. To date, we have should be sustainable. Campaigns to raise destructive path and that, with time, biologi- used our intelligence to try to understand the awareness and improve education have cal and cultural evolution will remedy the world and human existence, to prolong our highlighted to the general public that human problem [1]. From a biological perspective, lifespans and improve our lifestyles, to civilisation is on an unsustainable path that however, there is no evidence that humans become richer, and to assemble ourselves could lead to ecological, economic and are evolving toward a more environmentally into groups and societies. We have devel- human disaster. Yet, humans continue to conscious state. Moreover, evolution is oped the disciplines of science, philosophy, degrade the biosphere and deplete natural highly stochastic and contingent and, as a medicine, economics, politics, engineering resources at an unprecedented rate. consequence, totally unpredictable. Such and technology, but we have failed utterly to There are many explanations for this arguments rather seem to come from reli- apply these effectively and consistently to apparent disconnect between knowing that gious or moral beliefs that humans are pre- deal with environmental issues. As a result, our life style is unsustainable and doing destined to live in harmony with nature. our behaviour as a species is little different nothing to change it. These include that the ...... from other animals whose destinies are dominant economic model is based on con- determined by ecological laws. tinuous growth; that there is a lack of com- “From a biological perspective Those who care about conservation advo- munication to stakeholders and policy […] there is no evidence that cate applying our unique intelligence to deal makers; a lack of international coordination humans are evolving toward a with our wasteful use of natural resources. It to address global problems; that people are is neither a matter of being right or wrong, reluctant to change their lifestyles; and that more environmentally conscious nor of human destiny or superiority; the state” we do not experience the impact of global ...... point is whether we are willing to survive as environmental problems on our daily lives. a species on the planet. But the pursuit of the This disconnect also applies to other prob- From a cultural or societal angle, we can- survival of the species, rather than the indi- lems such as poverty, public health issues not observe an increasing tendency for vidual, would imply that we are self-con- and hunger. Everybody dislikes the conse- humans to live in a more sustainable manner scious as a species, rather than as quences, but nobody is willing to make the either. Rather the opposite is true: in North individuals. If we are not, the ethical and bio- necessary sacrifices to address the issue. America and Europe we see an increasing logical arguments for caring about future gen- ...... demand for energy and a proliferation of erations fall short. Species consciousness environmentally harmful habits—despite does not seem to be inherent to human “It therefore seems legitimate our knowledge of the damage we are doing. nature, as is manifest in our response to envi- to ask whether humankind as Elsewhere, the rapidly growing middle clas- ronmental and other socio-economic prob- ses in Asia and South America are repeating lems. It has been suggested that humanity, a whole is interested in Western mistakes and disregarding the envi- having out-competed other species, has orga- preserving nature for future ronment in their pursuit of happiness. Any nized itself in such a way that different generations and civilizations” change in attitude and action is therefore nations, ideologies, races and social and eco- ...... unlikely to come through cultural evolution nomic classes compete with each other as or human intelligence, but will rather be the though they were ‘cultural species’ [2]. It therefore seems legitimate to ask inevitable consequence of Maltusian laws— The conservation of nature should involve whether humankind as a whole is interested in other words, our profligacy will come not only the current and future preservation of in preserving nature for future generations home to haunt us. Waiting for eventual bio- the biosphere and biodiversity, but also the and civilizations. In other words, do we care logical or cultural evolution to catch up with proper continuation of the evolution of every about the future of our species? Given our our attitude to nature is not an option given species on the planet. In other words, we current rate of exploitation of natural the immediacy of environmental problems. should not interfere with or prevent the evolu-

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Mountaintop removal strip mining for coal in Appalachia, USA. The mountain tops are blown off and dumped into river valleys in order to get access to the coal layers. It is a particularly destructive form of mining and leaves infertile mesas in what where once diverse temperate forests.` Goerge Steinmetz/Corbis.

tion of other species. This principle adds a new, ur lack of either a species-level and held back by the prevailing economic non-anthropocentric dimension to conservation telluric consciousness is not, how- system—global capitalism—which has the that might be called ‘telluric consciousness’, in O ever, an excuse to continue to dev- utopian objective of unending growth. reference to the whole Earth. Telluric con- astate the earth. Our natural deficiency can Given that most of the major industria- sciousness implies that humans are fully aware be compensated for by philanthropy and lised countries are democracies, the hope that they are a functional part of the Earth’s bio- altruism. Philanthropy, by definition, con- is that informing and educating people sphere, and the concept should not be confused siders human interests, while altruism, in its about environmental decline will lead to a with ecocentrism, which is a radical ethical pos- broadest sense, includes the entire bio- change in public opinion that will sway ture. Again, telluric consciousness does not sphere. In addition to an ability to be self- politicians looking to be elected. Enhanced seem to be inherent to human nature and less, altruistic behaviour requires a sufficient public awareness and support will be requires an intellectual effort to be properly level of awareness to be able to identify needed for the implementation of difficult assimilated and understood. Our intelligence problems, free will to make decisions, and solutions that could include population seems to be able to cope with both species and creativity and ingenuity to find solutions. control, major political, economic and telluric consciousness, but more work is needed However, the cost in terms of the socio-eco- social transformations, and, eventually, to turn theory into action. nomic transformations necessary for a sus- de-growth strategies. Public awareness and ...... tainable way of living remains the largest support are also needed to bring to power impediment. It is especially difficult to con- a political class that is less influenced by “… we already have the tools vince those who are sceptical of environ- the current economic model and more for dealing with environmental mental decline or the value of the biosphere aware of the need for nature conservation. decline—they are innate to and those who are comfortable with the sta- Though the effects of raising public tus quo that something needs to be done. awareness are likely to be powerful, this humans: awareness, free will, Unfortunately, many politicians fall natu- long-term approach may be too slow creativity and ingenuity” rally into these categories, while those given the speed of environmental deterio- ...... showing some interest in conservation are ration.

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Another strategy for fighting environmen- ecosystem services supplied by these multi- example, many countries have political lead- tal deterioration at a global level has been functional systems which is why we convert ers who are almost exclusively concerned political negotiation. A landmark achieve- them into plantations, shrimp farms and with satisfying the economic requirements of ment was the Kyoto Protocol, by which other mono-functional systems without, or international creditor banks at the expense countries agreed to reduce greenhouse gas only partially, considering the costs of the of the people. This scenario could be (GHG) emissions to slow down global loss of their services” [3]. described as pseudo-democratic, as democ- climate change. It was adopted by a majority The authors also warn that expressing racy seems to be restricted to the ephemeral of industrialized countries, but important ecosystem services in monetary units does electoral process. The same is true of global exceptions included the USA and China, not mean that we can or should commodify environmental governance: the main prob- both of which are massive producers of them or exchange them in markets; how- lem seems to be the unwillingness of policy GHGs. Implementation of the protocol was ever, this approach is laying the foundation makers to abandon the economic model that intended in two phases: the periods 2008– for this to happen. Indeed, rather than has kept them in power. 2012 and 2013–2020. At the end of 2020, it contributing to the protection of biodiver- was planned that atmospheric GHG levels sity and promoting more sustainable man- ...... would be reduced below 450 ppm of carbon agement, the monetary valuation of “… the main cause of the lack dioxide equivalent (CO2e). However, the tar- ecosystem services will likely lead to their gets have not been met and global emissions open commercialization under capitalist of efficient global conservation have actually increased, despite follow-up rules. This is already occurring, as payment policies is that the political conferences held in Copenhagen (2009), for ecosystem services within a market- sector is attached to the Cancun (2010) and Durban (2011). A large based framework is gaining support among part of the problem is that the major GHG policy makers at local, regional and global dominant model of continuous emitters are a serious impediment to pro- levels [4]. economic growth” gress. Failure to meet the Kyoto targets has Unfortunately, capitalist mercantilism ...... been interpreted as the inherent difficulty in neither respects nor supports sustainable governing ‘the commons’—air, water, for- practices. One example of this is the failure In general, then, intelligence and altruism ests, fisheries, and so on. However, it could of the carbon market to decrease global —the human attributes likely best suited to also be argued that the representatives of the GHG emissions: the richest countries buy dealing with nature conservation and social currently dominant socio-economic system more emission bonuses, while emerging justice—seem to be missing from the pic- have no interest in overturning an economic economies have more immediate priorities ture. An immediate and major revision of model that has brought them to power. Para- than climate change [5]. Another example is current democratic procedures is urgently doxically, most of these political leaders were the over-exploitation of crude oil to increase needed to close the gap and reconcile elected through democratic procedures, but financial gains for oil companies instead of political decisions with present and future their interests are more aligned with capitalist guaranteeing globally sustainable energy human needs. To be legitimate, such a polit- goals based on short-term returns and eco- use; or the production of biofuels, which ical turnover should come from the people nomic growth. Something does not seem to competes with food production. Perhaps one and proceed upstream in a truly democratic be working with democracy. of the most dramatic examples of the perver- fashion, rather than being dictated by sity of the market economy in terms of ideology. nother proposed solution to address social justice is the increase in the number environmental decline has been to of undernourished people by 74 million in ecause capitalism and its influence on A apply market rules by assigning mon- only 2 years (2005–2007) owing to financial our daily lives will not disappear etary value to natural services and biodiver- speculation driving up the price of wheat B overnight, we should consider more sity and to incorporate these into the market and maize [6]. So far, the most efficient immediate actions within the status quo. economy. It has been estimated that the solution has been to select specific areas to The question is whether we can attain an ‘value’ of the biosphere is between US$16 protect them from economic exploitation in equilibrium between capitalism and better and 54 trillion per year and that most of this the form of natural reserves, national parks conservation standards at a global level. At value is outside the market. The biomes and so on. local and regional levels, some European with less value include open oceans, grass- countries—Germany, the Netherlands, Swit- lands, woodlands and temperate forests, s noted above, the main cause of the zerland or the Scandinavian countries, for whereas corals, coastal systems and wet- lack of efficient global conservation example—successfully combine highly com- lands are among the most valuable. Tropical A policies is that the political sector is petitive economies with high living and forests have average values [3]. The propo- attached to the dominant model of continu- environmental standards. Both governments nents of this approach argue that, “in daily ous economic growth. This creates a gap and citizens are willing to invest into more decision making practice (by governments, between the needs of citizens and the actions sustainable practices of energy production businesses and consumers) we explicitly or of their political representatives. This situa- and consumption or greener production implicitly put a price on forests, wetlands, tion is common to many countries, where practices. If these countries succeed as and other ecosystems. Often this price is elected governments are unable to meet the examples, other countries could follow and very low, or even close to zero, not reflect- needs of citizens owing to political and/or thus begin a social and cultural evolution ing the variety of market and non-market economic constraints and commitments. For towards high conservation standards.

ª 2014 The Author EMBO reports Vol 15 |No1 | 2014 19 EMBO reports Humankind and the path of environmental destruction Valentı Rull

The weak point here is the global aspect. the same way that we currently share 4.Wunscher€ T, Engel S (2012) Biol Conserv 152: The economic growth of the richest coun- information [7]. 222 – 230 tries would not be possible without global If successful, the TIR might have the 5. Wara M (2007) Nature 445: 595 – 596 socio-economic inequality. Furthermore, it potential to transform global economic, social 6. Beddington J (2010) Phil Trans R Soc Lond B is very unlikely that our planet, with its and political relationships, as it will democra- Biol Sci 365: 61 – 71 finite resources, would be able to support a tize energy consumption and usage. However, 7. Rifkin J (2011) The Third Industrial Revolution: global growing economy and the living stan- it is still too early to tell whether the experi- How Lateral Power is Transforming Energy, The dards for all people as those of the richest ment will succeed in light of vested interests. Economy and the World. New York, NY, USA: countries. Given the inability of the political caste to Palgrave MacMillan...... abandon a wasteful capitalist model, as well as the resistance of most citizens to changes “Because capitalism and its in living standards, the future of the planet influence on our daily lives will currently remains in question. not disappear overnight, we should consider more immediate Acknowledgments actions within the status quo” Funding was provided by the Spanish Ministry of ...... Science and Education (project ECOPAST, CGL2009- 07069/BOS) and the BBVA Foundation (project nother alternative path is the recent PANTEPUI-II, BIOCON 2008-031). Comments by initiative—explicitly supported by Philip Caffaro were useful to strengthen some A the European Union—of the so-called arguments of the manuscript. Third Industrial Revolution (TIR), which is underway as an experiment in Germany. Conﬂict of interest After the first and the second industrial revo- The author declares that he has no conflict of lutions, which were based on coal and oil interest. respectively, the TIR relies on Internet technologies to decentralize energy produc- References Valentı Rull is at the Botanic Institute of Barcelona tion and distribution. A wide range of 1. Nekola JC, et al. (2013) Trends Ecol Evol 28: (IBB-CSIC-ICUB), Barcelona, Spain players are intended to generate energy from 127 – 130 Email: [email protected] renewable sources, which is then stored 2. Rull V (2010) EMBO Rep 11: 653 – 663 and shared using Internet-like networks in 3. de Groot R, et al. (2012) Ecosyst Serv 1: 50 – 61 DOI 10.1002/embr.201337942

20 EMBO reports Vol 15 |No1 | 2014 ª 2014 The Author Science & Society

The most important application of science

As scientists have to justify research funding with potential social benefits, they may well add education to the list

Valentí Rull

cience is valued by society because scientific knowledge, but crucially to human life and that it should be centrally the application of scientific knowledge provide them with a basic understanding of controlled by the state to maximise its S helps to satisfy many basic human how science has shaped the world and utility—he was heavily influenced by Marxist needs and improve living standards. Finding human civilisation. Education could become thought. The zoologist John R. Baker criti- a cure for cancer and a clean form of energy the most important application of science in cised this “Bernalistic” view, defending a are just two topical examples. Similarly, the next decades. “liberal” conception of science according to science is often justified to the public as ...... which “the advancement of knowledge by driving economic growth, which is seen as a scientific research has a value as an end in return-on-investment for public funding. “It is time to seriously consider itself”. This approach has been called the During the past few decades, however, how science and research can “free-science” approach. another goal of science has emerged: to find a way to rationally use natural resources to contribute to education at all he modern, utilitarian approach has guarantee their continuity and the continuity levels of society...” attempted to coerce an explicit socio- of humanity itself; an endeavour that is ...... T political and economic manifestation currently referred to as “sustainability”. of science. Perhaps the most recent and Scientists often justify their work using More and better education of citizens striking example of this is the shift in Euro- these and similar arguments—currently would also enable informed debate and deci- pean research policy under the so-called linked to personal health and longer life sion-making about the fair and sustainable Horizon 2020 or H2020 funding framework. expectancies, technological advancement, application of new technologies, which This medium-term programme (2014-2020) economic profits, and/or sustainability—in would help to address problems such as is defined as a “financial instrument imple- order to secure funding and gain social accep- social inequality and the misuse of scientific menting the Innovation Union, a Europe tance. They point out that most of the tools, discoveries. For example, an individual 2020 flagship initiative aimed at securing technologies and medicines we use today are might perceive an increase in welfare and Europe’s global competitiveness” (http:// products or by-products of research, from life expectancy as a positive goal and ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm). This pens to rockets and from aspirin to organ would not consider the current problems of is a common view of science and technology transplantation. This progressive application inequality relating to food supply and in the so-called developed world, but what of scientific knowledge is captured in Isaac health resources. is notable in the case of the H2020 Asimov’s book, Chronology of science and However, taking the view that science programme is that economic arguments are discovery, which beautifully describes how education should address how we apply placed explicitly ahead of all other reasons. science has shaped the world, from the scientific knowledge to improve the human Europe could be in danger of taking a step discovery of fire until the 20th century. condition raises the question of whether backwards in its compulsion to become an science research should be entirely at the economic world leader at any cost. owever, there is another application service of human needs, or whether scien- ...... of science that has been largely tists should retain the freedom to pursue — “ H ignored, but that has enormous knowledge for its own sake albeit with a Europe could be in danger potential to address the challenges facing view to eventual application. This question of taking a step backwards humanity in the present day education. It is has been hotly debated since the publication in its compulsion to become time to seriously consider how science and of British physicist John D. Bernal’s book, research can contribute to education at all The Social Function of Science, in 1939. an economic world leader at levels of society; not just to engage more Bernal argued that science should contribute any cost.” people in research and teach them about to satisfy the material needs of ordinary ......

Botanic Institute of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain, E-mail: [email protected] DOI 10.15252/embr.201438848 | Published online 18 August 2014

ª 2014 The Author EMBO reports Vol 15 |No9 | 2014 919 EMBO reports The most important application of science Valentí Rull

Data: Special Eurobarometer Europeans, Science and Technology (June 2005) Quiz results from 25 EU Member States in 2005

For comparison, the US National Science approach and contradicts the “liberal” view economic indicators, such as Gross Domes- Foundation declares that its mission is to that “science can only flourish and therefore tic Product (GDP), to measure social well- “promote the progress of science; to advance can only confer the maximum cultural being and happiness is flawed. For example, the national health, prosperity and welfare; and practical benefits on society when Robert Costanza, of the Australian National to secure the national defence; and for other research is conducted in an atmosphere of University, and several collaborators purposes” (http://www.nsf.gov/about/ freedom” [2]. By way of example, the published a paper in Nature recently in glance. jsp). The Japan Science and Technol- discovery of laser emissions in 1960 was which they announce the “dethroning of ogy Agency (JST) states that it “promotes a strictly scientific venture to demonstrate a GDP” and its replacement by more appropri- creation of intellect, sharing of intellect with physical principle predicted by Einstein in ate indicators that consider both economic society, and establishment of its infrastruc- 1917. The laser was considered useless growth and “a high quality of life that is ture in an integrated manner and supports at that time as an “invention in the search equitably shared and sustainable” [3]. generation of innovation” (http:// for a job”. If the utilitarian view of science as an www.jst.go.jp/EN/about/mission.html). In economic tool prevails, basic research will his President’s Message, Michiharu Naka- ...... suffer. Dismantling the current science mura stated that, “Japan seeks to create new “...we need to educate the research infrastructure, which has taken value based on innovative science and tech- centuries to build and is based on free nology and to contribute to the sustained educators, and consequently to enquiry, would have catastrophic conse- development of human society ensuring adopt adequate science quences for humanity. The research commu- Japan’s competitiveness” [1]. The difference curricula at university nity needs to convince political and between these declarations and the Euro- education departments.” scientific managers of the danger of this pean H2020 programme is that the H2020 ...... course. Given that a recent Eurobarometer programme explicitly prioritises economic survey found significant support among the competitiveness and economic growth, European public for scientists to be “free to while the NIH and JST put their devotion to he mercantilisation of research is, carry out the research they wish, provided knowledge, intellect, and the improvement explicitly or not, based on the simplis- they respect ethical standards” (73% of of society up front. Curiously, the H2020 T tic idea that economic growth leads to respondents agreed with this statement; programme’s concept of science as a capital- increased quality of life. However, some http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ ist tool is analogous to the “Bernalistic” leading economists think that using general ebs/ebs_224_report_en.pdf), it seems that a

920 EMBO reports Vol 15 |No9 | 2014 ª 2014 The Author Valentí Rull The most important application of science EMBO reports

campaign to support the current free-science inequality, nuclear arms and global climate and re-evaluation of the existing knowledge. system, funded with public budgets, would change—resulted from the abandonment of Every scientific theory is always under scru- likely be popular. the key principle of the Enlightenment: the tiny and questioned whenever new evidence use of reason under a humanistic framework. seems to challenge its validity. No other he US NSF declaration contains a knowledge system has demonstrated this word that is rarely mentioned when hen discussing education, we capacity, and even, the defenders of faith- T dealing with scientific applications: should therefore consider not based systems are common users of medical education. Indeed, a glance at the textbooks W only those who have no access services and technological facilities that used by children is enough to show how far to basic education, but also a considerable have emerged from scientific knowledge. scientific knowledge has advanced in a few fraction of the populations of developed generations, and how these advances have countries who have no recent science educa- or these reasons, formal education been transferred to education. A classic tion. The Eurobarometer survey mentioned from primary school to high school example is molecular biology; a discipline provides a striking argument: On average, F should therefore place a much larger that was virtually absent from school text- only the half of the surveyed Europeans emphasis on teaching young people how books a couple of generations ago. The knew that electrons are smaller than atoms; science has shaped and advanced human deliberate and consistent addition of new almost a third believed that the Sun goes culture and well-being, but also that science scientific knowledge to enhance education around the Earth, and nearly a quarter of flourishes best when scientists are left free might seem an obvious application of them affirmed that earliest humans coex- to apply human reason to understand the science, but it is often ignored. This piece- isted with dinosaurs (http://ec.europa.eu/ world. This also means that we need to meal approach is disastrous for science public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_224_report_ educate the educators and consequently to education, so the application of science in en.pdf). Another type of passive ignorance adopt adequate science curricula at univer- education should be emphasised and resour- that is on the increase among the public of sity education departments. Scientists them- ced properly for two reasons: first, because industrialised countries, especially among selves must get more involved both in education has been unequivocally recogni- young people, is an indifference to socio- schools and universities. sed as a human right, and second, because political affairs beyond their own individual the medical, technological and environmen- and immediate well-being...... tal applications of science require qualified Ignorance may have a relevant influence professionals who acquire their skills on politics in democracies because ignorant “Dismantling the current through formal education. Therefore, educa- people are more easily manipulated, or science research infrastructure, tion is a paramount scientific application. because their votes may depend on irrele- which has taken centuries to ...... vant details, such as a candidate’s physical appearance or performance in public build and is based on free “The deliberate and consistent debates. A democracy should be based on enquiry, would have an informed society. Education sensu lato— addition of new scientific catastrophic consequences for including both formal learning and cultural humanity.” knowledge to enhance educa- education—is therefore crucial for develop- ...... tion might seem an obvious ing personal freedom of thought and free application of science, but it is will, which will lead to adequate representa- tion and better government [5]. But scientists will also have to get more often ignored.” ...... To improve the cultural level of human engaged with society in general. The improve- societies is a long-term venture in which ment of human culture and society relies on science will need to play a critical role. We more diffuse structural and functional In a more general sense, education serves first need to accept that scientific reasoning patterns. In the case of science, its diffusion to to maintain the identity of human culture, is intimately linked to human nature: the general public is commonly called the which is based on our accumulated knowl- Humanity did not explicitly adopt science as popularisation of science and can involve edge, and to improve the general cultural level the preferred tool for acquiring knowledge scientists themselves, rather than journalists of society. According to Stuart Jordan, a after choosing among a set of possibilities; and other communicators. In this endeavour, retired senior staff scientist at NASA’s we simply used our own mental functioning scientists should be actively and massively Goddard Space Flight Center, and currently to explain the world. If reason is a universal involved. Scientists—especially those work- president of the Institute for Science and human feature, any knowledge can be trans- ing in public institutions—should make a Human Values, widespread ignorance and mitted and understood by everyone without greater effort to communicate to society what superstition remain “major obstacles to the need for alien constraints, not unlike art science is and what is not; how is it done; progress to a more humanistic world” [4] in or music. what are its main results; and what are they which prosperity, security, justice, good health Moreover, science has demonstrated that useful for. This would be the best way of and access to culture are equally accessible to it is a supreme mechanism to explain the demystifying science and scientists and all humans. He argues that the proliferation of world, to solve problems and to fulfil human upgrading society’s scientific literacy. the undesirable consequences of scientific needs. A fundamental condition of science is In summary, putting a stronger emphasis knowledge—such as overpopulation, social its dynamic nature: the constant revision on formal science education and on raising

ª 2014 The Author EMBO reports Vol 15 |No9 | 2014 921 EMBO reports The most important application of science Valentí Rull

the general cultural level of society should and economically in both the short and the 2013–2014 (http://www.jst.go.jp/EN/JST_ lead to a more enlightened knowledge-based long term, but it is also the best tool avail- Brochure_2013.pdf). Last accessed: March 20, society—as opposed to the H2020 vision of a able to satisfy the fundamental human thirst 2014 knowledge-based economy—that is less for knowledge, as well as to maintain and 2. McGucken W (1978) On freedom and planning susceptible to dogmatic moral systems. enhance the human cultural heritage, which in science: the Society for Freedom in Science, Scientists should still use the other argu- is knowledge-based by definition. 1940–46. Minerva 16: 42 – 72 ments—technological progress, improved 3. Costanza R, Kubiszewski I, Giovannini E, Lovins health and well-being and economic gains— Conflict of interest H, McGlade J, Pickett KE (2014) Time to leave to justify their work, but better education The author declares that he has no conflict of GDP behind. Nature 505: 283 – 285 would provide the additional support interest. 4. Jordan S (2012) The Enlightenment Vision. needed to convince citizens about the Science, Reason and the Promise of a Better usefulness of science beyond its economic References Future. Promethous Books, Amherst value. Science is not only necessary for 1. Japan Science and Technology Agency (2013) 5. Rull V (2014) Conservation, human values and humanity to thrive socially, environmentally Overview of JST program and organisation democracy. EMBO Rep 15: 17 – 20

922 EMBO reports Vol 15 |No9 | 2014 ª 2014 The Author Collectanea Botanica vol. 33 (1) (2014): 85–90 ISSN-L: 0010-0730

The social utility of science

V. RULL

Institut Botànic de Barcelona (IBB-CSIC-ICUB), pg. del Migdia, s/n, ES-08038 Barcelona, Spain

E-mail: [email protected]

Science is often valued by society due to the im- Another common argument used by scientists in a mediate applicability of scientific knowledge to variety of social contexts is that sooner or later, all satisfy certain human needs, mainly in the fields scientific knowledge will be useful for humanity, of medicine and technology. Topical examples of as has been the case historically. A well-written and this mind-set are the search for a cure for cancer highly accessible account of the applications of sci- or the discovery of a hypothetical clean and end- ence through history from the discovery of fire unless form of energy. Another argument commonly til the 20th century was provided by Isaac Asimov used to justify continued investment in science is in his book Chronology of science and discovery, the belief that scientific knowledge will eventually which is highly recommended reading for anyone turn into economic gain. Researchers and research who wishes to understand how science has shaped institutions increasingly use this argument to se- the world. cure project funding and gain social acceptance. In However, other aspects such as social inequality, recent decades, an additional goal of science has inadequate uses of scientific discoveries and ethical emerged: a more rational use of natural resources concerns in scientific research are of paramount im- in order to guarantee their continuity (and the en- portance and should not be overlooked. For exam- suing continuity of humanity itself), an endeavour ple, from an individual’s perspective, an increase that is currently referred to as “sustainability”. Sci- in welfare and life expectancy is perceived as a entists are often challenged by popular questions positive goal, but its complete attainment would such as: what is science useful for? Why should we eventually lead to unwanted social consequences. continue to invest in science? Scholars desperately The most obvious sequel would be the failure to try to justify their work with the above mentioned secure the food supply for the next generations. On and similar arguments, currently linked to personal the other hand, as has occurred with many other health and longer life expectancies, technological human needs, the current global socio-economic advancement, economic profits, and/or sustain- system has demonstrated its inability to guarantee ability, a collection of topics that have been sum- a fair and equitable distribution of the resources marised by terms like “welfare” (or “wellbeing”), necessary for human life, including access to health “quality of life” or simply “happiness”. It is not un- services and medicines, which is a situation that common to hear or to read that virtually everything has resulted in increasing social injustice and in- around us is a product or by-product of scientific equality. The same bad practices have been used research, from pens to interplanetary rockets, from to manage the more powerful energy sources, as aspirin to complicated organ transplant procedures. for example oil, which precludes to be optimistic in 86 V. RULL relation to the eventual discovery of a never-ending and explicit in the following sentence: “Seen as a energy source. Problems such as unsuitable uses means to drive economic growth and create jobs, of scientific discoveries and ethics in research are Horizon 2020 has the political backing of Europe’s usually attributed to the pressure of so-called ex- leaders and the Members of the European Parlia- ternal forces (ideology, politics, economy, moral, ment” (EC, 2014). It could be argued that this is religion, etc.) that constitute serious concerns for a common view of science and technology in the honest scientists in the face of social demands. modern world, notably in leading countries such as These drawbacks are extensively examined else- the USA or Japan, where investment in science is where (Rull, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014). The purpose high owing to the conviction that resultant econom- of this essay is to evaluate alternative answers to ic returns are guaranteed and relatively rapid. It is the above questions on the usefulness of science for often said that the world’s larger economies are also humanity beyond the cluster of health-economy- those with higher public and private investment in technology-sustainability (HETS). The following science. This phenomenon is generally true, but in discussion will focus exclusively on the usefulness the case of the European H2020 programme, eco- of science for humanity, here termed the “utilitar- nomic arguments are explicitly placed in a leading ian” approach. The benefits of science for the earth role, ahead of any other reason. in general and for its biosphere in particular (i.e. In the USA, for example, the National Science the “telluric” approach) are also discussed in other Foundation (NSF) declares that its mission remains papers (Rull, 2014). Whether science makes sense the same as when it was founded in the 1950s: “To by itself or should be at the service of human needs promote the progress of science; to advance the has been intensely debated since the publication, national health, prosperity and welfare; to secure in 1939, of the book The Social Function of Sci- the national defense; and for other purposes”. The ence by the British physicist John D. Bernal. This NSF adds that it “envisions a nation that capital- scholar considered that science should be targeted izes on new concepts in science and engineering to satisfy the material needs of ordinary human life and provides global leadership in advancing re- and, influenced by Marxism, defended a central search and education” (NSF, 2011). Expressions control of science by the state to maximise its util- such as “prosperity”, “other purposes” or “glo- ity in this sense. This “Bernalistic” view was fur- bal leadership” might be interpreted in economic ther criticized by the zoologist John R. Baker, who terms, but this is not explicitly stated and, in either defended a “liberal” conception of science accord- case, these expressions have the same importance ing to which “the advancement of knowledge by as health and welfare, for example. The Japan Sci- scientific research has a value as an end in itself”. ence and Technology Agency (JST) is less explicit This approach has been called the “free-science” when proclaiming that its mission is “contributing approach and lead to the formation of the Society to the generation of science, technology and in- for Freedom in Science, in 1940 (McGuken, 1978). novation”. In his President’s Message, Michiharu The free or utilitarian science duality has also been Nakamura is more specific, recognising that Japan discussed elsewhere (Rull, 2012). is already a major economic power, and states that First, it should be noted that the utilitarian view- “Japan seeks to create new value based on inno- point of science in terms of immediate social gains vative science and technology and to contribute to has already adopted an explicit socio-political and the sustained development of human society en- economic manifestation, virtually worldwide. Per- suring Japan’s competitiveness” (JST, 2013). Na- haps the most recent and striking example is the kamura also uses the word “competitiveness” but outstanding shift in European scientific policy in scientific, rather than economic, terms. The link championed by the so-called “Horizon 2020” or between science and the economy seems more ob- “H2020”. This is a medium-term programme (2014- vious in sentences such as “…we hope that indus- 2017) openly defined as a “the financial instrument try can commit to bold new challenges based on implementing the Innovation Union, a Europe the seeds of scientific research in academia”. The 2020 flagship initiative aimed at securing Europe’s obvious difference between the fundamental sci- global competitiveness”. The word “competitive- entific declarations of these major economies and ness” is used in capitalistic terms, as is manifest the European H2020 proclamation is that the latter

Collectanea Botanica vol. 33 (1) (2014): 85–90, ISSN-L: 0010-0730 The social utility of science 87 prioritises economic competitiveness. It seems that of the current science structure—which has taken Europe seeks to transform itself into an economic centuries to build up—and its transformation into a power similar to the USA or Japan and is relying on slave-science system with potentially catastrophic science to achieve this goal. The relative youth of consequences for humanity may be just around the the European Union’s population, together with its corner unless we are able to convince political and socio-political heterogeneity, in comparison to the scientific managers of the danger of this course as longer running and more homogeneous American soon as possible. An eventual campaign supporting and Japanese economies, seem to be major handi- the continuity of the current free-science system caps for Europe; however, this is a collateral topic funded with public budgets would likely be popu- that deserves its own individual treatment. lar, as almost three quarters (73%) of the people In either case, the result is the total subjugation surveyed in a special Eurobarometer survey dedi- of EU-funded science, which is at the beck and call cated to the social perception of science in Europe of market rules and economic growth (slave sci- agreed with the statement: “Scientists should be ence). Curiously, this conception of science, based free to carry out the research they wish, provided on capitalistic premises, is analogous to the former- they respect ethical standards”, whereas only 10% ly discussed “Bernalistic” approach, emerged from disagreed. In some countries, positive answers were Marxist rules. It is also worth noting that the slave- approximately 90% (EC, 2005). science approach is in open contradiction with one The mercantilisation of science and scientific of the foundational tenets of the “liberal” Society research is, explicitly or not, based on the simplis- for Freedom in Science, saying that “science can tic and undemonstrated idea that economic growth only flourish and therefore can only confer the leads to increased quality of life. However, the use maximum cultural and practical benefits on soci- of general economic indicators, as for example, ety when research is conducted in an atmosphere of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), to measure social freedom” (McGuken, 1978). In a slave-science sce- wellbeing and happiness, a common practice since nario, where immediacy is a norm, the progressive, the Second World War, has been considered flawed, long-term and ordered accumulation of knowledge even by leading economists. This is the case made characteristic of free science is at risk of being re- by Robert Costanza of the Australian National Uni- placed by a disordered aggregate of short-lived and versity, who recently published a paper in the jour- unconnected developments biased by immediate nal Nature with several collaborators entitled Time industrial needs and useless for future generations. to leave GDP behind. In this paper, Costanza and Consequently, fundamental science may suffer his colleagues announce the “dethroning of GDP” severe setbacks, owing to its assumed lack of im- and its replacement by more appropriate indicators mediate application, which could result in the end that consider not only economic growth but also “a of science as we know it. Just as an example, the high quality of life that is equitably shared and sus- discovery of laser emissions in 1960 was a strictly tainable”. A fully satisfactory alternative to GDP is scientific venture oriented to demonstrate a physi- not yet available, but according to Costanza and his cal principle predicted by Einstein in 1917. In in- collaborators, such a successor “should be a new dustrial terms, the laser was useless at that time and set of metrics that integrates current knowledge was defined as an “invention in the search for a job” of how ecology, economics, psychology and so- (García Ramos, 2014). The first applications of la- ciology collectively contribute to establishing and ser technology came about ten years later with the measuring sustainable well-being” (Costanza et al., development of optical fibres and were followed 2014). In such a scenario, Europe could be in dan- by spectacular and useful medical and technologi- ger of taking a step backwards in its compulsion to cal applications. Under a slave-science system, the become a world leader at any cost. In the case dis- invention of laser would hardly have taken place. cussed here, the cost would be the dismantling of In such a system, universities and other research a free science system, which originated in the late institutions would lose their scientific character and 17th century during the Enlightenment (a genuine turn into consulting companies at the service of in- European movement), which nurtured the roots of dustry, which implies the sequestering of public re- modern science. An additional factor promoting search funds for private purposes. The dismantling the political advocacy for a central planning and

Collectanea Botanica vol. 33 (1) (2014): 85–90, ISSN-L: 0010-0730 88 V. RULL control on scientific research could be the ongoing identity of humanity and its different cultures, and economic crisis, as it occurred with the emergence to upgrading the general cultural level of society. of the “Bernalism” that was, in large part, a conse- According to Stuart Jordan, a retired senior staff sci- quence of the great depression initiated in 1929. It entist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and seems that, in situations of economic adversity, “the currently president of the Institute for Science and traditional piety of a pure unworldly science seems Human Values, widespread ignorance and supersti- at best a phantastic escape, at worst a shameful hy- tion remain “major obstacles to progress to a more pocrisy”, in Bernal’s words (McGuken, 1978). humanistic world” (Jordan, 2012). Jordan uses the In the endeavour to find an answer to the above term “humanistic world” to refer to the pursuit of questions on the utility of science beyond HETS, a world in which prosperity, security, justice, good a mind-set moving from a focus on short-term, health and access to culture are equally accessible restricted and ephemeral needs to long-term, glo- to all human beings. This author considers that the bal and more permanent targets is needed. It could proliferation of the undesirable consequences of be argued that sustainability already considers the scientific knowledge, such as overpopulation, social long run, but this term is commonly used in eco- inequality, nuclear proliferation and global climate nomic, rather than humanistic, terms and is usually change, resulted from the abandonment of the key restricted to the next few generations; therefore, principle of the Enlightenment—i.e. the use of rea- it has been considered useless for long-term ven- son under a humanistic ethical framework. If glo- tures (Rull, 2011). In the American NSF declara- bal human wellbeing is really our target, we should tion (see above), there is a word that is rarely men- return as quickly as possible to that principle. tioned when dealing with scientific applications; When discussing ignorance, we should consid- this word is “education”. From an academic angle, er not only the large part of humanity deprived of formal education would simply not be possible access to basic education, but also a large fraction without the constant improvement of science and of the population living in so-called developed scientific knowledge within in a freedom-based re- countries, including global economic leaders. A search system. This appears to be so obvious that is striking example is provided by the Eurobarom- often ignored, but it should be emphasised because eter survey mentioned above. On average, only the need for education is and has been unequivo- the half of the surveyed Europeans knows that cally recognised as mandatory for the continuity electrons are smaller than atoms, almost a third of human values in the past. Education must re- believes that the sun goes around the earth, and tain its pivotal role if we have to persist on earth. nearly a quarter of these people affirms that earli- A glance at the textbooks used by our children and est humans coexisted with dinosaurs (EC, 2005). grandchildren is enough to show how knowledge In developed countries, there is still a significant has advanced in a couple of generations and how amount of people (often termed “reactionary”) these advances have been transferred to the daily whose mental orientation is predominantly to- education of young people. A classic example is ward the past (Jordan, 2012). This population sec- the outstanding development of molecular biology, tor is usually dogmatic and/or superstitious, and a discipline that was virtually absent from school relies on faith-based moral principles rather than textbooks a couple of generation ago. These ad- on reason-based knowledge to explain the world vancements have been possible by a free-science and to drive their everyday lives. Another type of system. On the other hand, the medical, techno- ignorance (here called passive ignorance) that is logical and environmental applications of science increasing dramatically in the industrialised coun- require the existence of qualified professionals in tries, especially within the younger generations, these fields who acquire their skills through formal is not based on any dogmatic morality but on a education. Therefore, education is a paramount sci- dull indifference for socio-political affairs beyond entific application, because it contributes not only their own individual and immediate wellbeing. to the continuity of humanity but also to the main- According to Jordan’s definition of “progressive” tained improvement of its wellbeing. people—i.e. those whose mentality is predomi- In a more general sense, education may refer to nantly oriented towards the future—dull people maintaining the knowledge-based background and also fall within the reactionary category.

Collectanea Botanica vol. 33 (1) (2014): 85–90, ISSN-L: 0010-0730 The social utility of science 89

Both active and passive ignorance may have a is subjected to fundamental a priori “truths” that relevant influence on the political scene of their must be accepted without any explanation. In ad- respective countries through democratic elections. dition, these faith-based axioms are not shared by This is largely because reactionary people are easily mankind as a whole, but change across cultures manipulated by their leaders or because they have and time and are largely dependent on the domi- no (conscious) political preference and their votes nant culture in a particular historical time. Conse- may depend on irrelevant details, such as candi- quently, faith-based knowledge systems are nei- dates’ physical aspects or their performance in pub- ther natural nor common to all of humanity and lic debates, rather than on ideology, social programs must be imposed by force or authority and main- or previous experience. As a result, a segment of tained through strict moral rules. low-quality political representatives persists and, in In addition to its natural character for human several cases, they dominate the scene. Therefore, beings, throughout history, science has demon- ignorance not only influences individuals’ personal strated that it is the better knowledge system to quality of life but also has a significant social im- explain the world, to solve usual human problems pact in that it promotes the continuity of unsuitable and to fulfil human needs. A fundamental condi- political leaders and governments, which can lead tion of science is its dynamic nature, based on the to inadequate policies. A high-quality democracy constant revision and re-evaluation of the existing should be based on a well-formed and informed knowledge. Every scientific theory is always un- society; otherwise, inadequate representatives may der scrutiny and is questioned when new evidence perpetuate in the governments by manipulating the seems to challenge its validity. Sometimes, non- will of the citizens. Education sensu lato—includ- scientific or anti-scientific sectors use this dynam- ing both formal learning and cultural education—is ic nature to accuse science of being hesitant and decisive in developing personal freedom of thought insecure, but on the contrary, constant knowledge and free will, which is projected to society in the revision is the best way to progress towards the form of higher-quality representatives and gov- explanation of natural phenomena using human ernments (Rull, 2014). In some sense, democracy reasoning. If this were not the case, the eventual could be viewed as an empty pot, where what is declaration of some scientific theory as an “ab- important is not the pot itself but its contents. You solute truth” would explicitly adhere to a faith- may have a pot of honey or a pot of dung and so is based system, thus stopping scientific progress democracy. in this particular field. We should note that this To upgrade the cultural level of human socie- has occurred historically and continues to occur ties is certainly a long-term venture in which sci- in some marginal sectors, but this is obviously a ence may play a critical role. First, we should ad- non-scientific practice based on authoritarian con- mit that scientific reasoning is intimately linked ceptions of knowledge, rather than on the applica- to human nature, as reason is an intrinsic feature tion of the scientific method itself. Concerning the of human mind. Humanity did not adopt science, relevance of science to solve human problems or a reason-based system, as the preferred tool for cover human needs, the more obvious examples acquiring knowledge after choosing among a set are medical and technological applications. Thus of possibilities; we simply used our own mental far, no other knowledge system has demonstrat- functioning to explain the world. Second, reason ed this capacity and even the defenders of faith- is a universal feature of all human beings, and based systems are common users of medical serv- therefore, any knowledge generated by reasoning ices and technological facilities that have emerged can be easily transmitted and understood by eve- from scientific knowledge and experimentation. ryone without the need for alien constraints, not In summary, reason-based scientific knowledge is unlike art or music. All humans have the capacity not only the more natural but also the more useful to see a picture or hear a song, unless we are ill or system to humanity. have our eyes closed and ears covered, voluntar- In contrast to formal education, which is highly ily or not. All we need to properly grasp scientific organised through specific institutions and pro- knowledge is to maintain an open mind. In con- grams, the cultural improvement of human soci- trast, knowledge based on faith and superstition ety relies on more diffuse structural and functional

Collectanea Botanica vol. 33 (1) (2014): 85–90, ISSN-L: 0010-0730 90 V. RULL patterns. In the case of science, its diffusion to the of them is more important than the others, but they general public is commonly called the popularisa- all provide scientists an array of arguments to be tion of science and its vehicles can be diverse, from used together or carefully selected from according scientists themselves to science amateurs (includ- to the inquiring audience. What seems irrefutable ing journalists and others). Usually, the popularisa- is that science is not only useful and necessary for tion of science is understood as the downgrading humanity in both the short and the long term, but is of scientific knowledge to make it intelligible by also—and this is hardly disputable—an inevitable the general public, but it would be more appropri- feature of the human condition derived from the ate to increase the skills of this public in order that functioning of our mind, as well as the better suited science might be understood as is (Rull, 2012). In tool to satisfy the unavoidable human passion for this endeavour, scientists should be actively and knowledge (Rull, 2012). massively involved, as science amateurs are not qualified enough or are constrained by external REFERENCES forces, or both. Scientists, especially those working in public institutions, should leave their labs Costanza, R., Kubiszewski, I., Giovannini, E., Lovins, H., from time to time and communicate with society as McGlade, J. & Pickett, K. E. 2014. Time to leave GDP be- to what science is and what is not, how is it done, hind. Nature 505: 283–285. EC (European Commission) 2005. Europeans, science and what are its main results, and what are they useful technology (Special Eurobarometer 224/Wave 63.1). Euro- for. This would be the best way of demystifying pean Comission, Brussels. Retrieved March 20, 2014, from science and scientists, and upgrading society’s sci- http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_224_ report_en.pdf entific literacy, as science’s contribution to increas- EC (European Commission) 2014. The EU Framework Pro- ing the cultural level. gramme for Research and Innovation. European Comission, In summary, in addition to the HETS cluster, Brussels. Retrieved March 20, 2014, from http://ec.europa. there are two more applications of science that eu/programmes/horizon2020/en/what-horizon-2020 García Ramos, J. V. 2014. Las moléculas: Cuando la luz te must be considered: (1) making formal education ayuda a vibrar. Editorial CSIC, Madrid. possible, and (2) upgrading the cultural level of Jordan, S. 2012. The Enlightenment vision. Science, reason society. The combination of (1) and (2) is useful and the promise of a better future. Promethous Books, Am- herst. for bolstering personal skills and free will, which JST (Japan Science and Technology Agency) 2013. Overview in the long run will result in a society less pliable of JST program and organisation 2013-2014. Japan Science to socio-political leaders, and also less suscepti- and Technology Agency, Tokyo. Retrieved March, 20, 2014, ble to dogmatic moral systems, developments that from http://www.jst.go.jp/EN/JST_Brochure_2013.pdf McGucken, W. 1978. On freedom and planning in science: would improve global welfare (Rull, 2014). Scien- the Society for Freedom in Science, 1940–46. Minerva 16: tists who prefer to use the HETS approach alone 42–72. to justify their work should not change their clas- NSF (National Science Foundation) 2011. Empowering the nation through discover and innovation. NSF strategic plans sic arguments. Those who are prone to consider the for fiscal years (FY) 2011–2016. National Science Founda- education-based alternatives have additional argu- tion, Arlington. Retrieved March 20, 2014, from http://www. ments capable of convincing—or, at least, creat- nsf.gov/news/strategicplan/nsfstrategicplan_2011_2016.pdf Rull, V. 2011. Sustainability, capitalism and evolution. EMBO ing reasonable doubts in—sceptical but educated Reports 12: 103–106. people inquiring about the usefulness of science. Rull, V. 2014. Conservation, human values and democracy. Whether they are aware of it or not, these inquirers EMBO Reports 15: 17–20. had not reached their position, whatever it is, with- Rull, V. 2010. Who needs a greener revolution? EMBO Re- ports 11: 659–663. out science. It is possible that none of the answers Rull, V. 2012. Towards a scientific force: some insights and a discussed here are the best answer, or that any one manifesto. Collectanea Botanica 31: 121–125.

Collectanea Botanica vol. 33 (1) (2014): 85–90, ISSN-L: 0010-0730 Published online: December 21, 2015

Science & Society

Free science under threat

The current revival of Bernalism and the use of market-based scientific practices are undermining science as we know it

Valentí Rull

ince its earliest origins in the ancient These privately funded endeavours began to to the detriment of fundamental research, Greek academies, science has been change with the rise of the modern thereby threatening the freedom of science. S based on the freedom of human intel- university, where scientists were formally ligence, creativity and desire to try to employed, and progress accelerated during he modern debate about basic versus understand the world and the human and after World War II when the state applied science originated in the UK condition. However, this freedom was became the main funder of research. This T in the mid-20th century, when the seldom granted: science and scientists made the discovery of knowledge and access physicist John D. Bernal contended that alike have been subjected to religious or to it more open and gave scientists the free- science should serve the state to satisfy the political pressures or censorship throughout dom and the time to pursue their ideas and material needs of its citizens. He called for history. The most popular—and somewhat hypotheses. Moreover, modern democracies state control of research to maximise its util- misunderstood—example is Galileo Galilei, enshrined freedom of research together with ity [1]. Bernalism was thus clearly influ- who was forced to renounce the heliocen- freedom of speech in their constitutions, enced by Marxism, a strong social and tric view of the solar system under pressure giving science an unprecedented protected political movement at the time. To guide from the Catholic Church because it coun- status in society. The result was a truly research and bring about the material bene- tered a literal interpretation of the bible that astonishing explosion of knowledge in all fits for the people, Bernal advocated a joint the sun revolves around the Earth. In the research areas during the 19th century, venture of scientists, government and 1930s and 1940s, the Soviet agriculturalist which has translated in myriad new tech- economic organisations to work together. Trofim Lysenko used his political influence nologies and inventions. The main points of his doctrine were [2] to silence critics of his theory of vernalism— ...... “(i) science originated in attempts to satisfy they were variously fired, imprisoned and the material needs of ordinary human life; executed—and genetics was declared a bour- “...contemporary science (ii) the legitimate purpose of science is to geois pseudoscience. We might dismiss such seems again to be coming meet these needs on an expanding scale; events and similar other ones as impossible under pressure from political, and (iii) scientists should not be left free to today, certain that the days of religious or social and religious actors” choose their own subjects of research, but political pressure on research are gone. But ...... must submit to central planning so that their we should not be so sure: contemporary work might be beneficially organised for the science seems again to be coming under satisfaction of material needs.” pressure from political, social and religious However, the increased involvement in The primary opponent of Bernalism was actors. While they do not have the murder- and funding of research by public money the zoologist John R. Baker [3], who ous intent of historical censors, they has fuelled demands for “returns” in the defended the principal freedom of science to nonetheless threaten the freedom of science. form of new discoveries and knowledge that choose its own objects of inquiry. Baker’s It is worthwhile to remember that the solve practical problems and increase views eventually culminated in the forma- freedom of science as we know and enjoy it human wellbeing: medical and technological tion of the Society for Freedom in Science today is a recent accomplishment. Before advances have always been most valued by (SFS) in 1940. Its foundations were “(i) great the industrial revolution, research was society. Over time, this has increased the material benefits to mankind result from mainly funded by rich individuals and distinction between fundamental, basic or research in pure science along lines whose universities—which relied on funds from pure research, and applied research to a application to human affairs is not at the private contributors—or the church: Isaac degree that the two are now considered to time obvious; (ii) the advancement of Newton was a fellow of Trinity College; be separate. This is a risky development knowledge by scientific research has a value Charles Darwin joined the crew of the because pressure to solve societal, health or as an end in itself; (iii) so far as possible, Beagle as a self-funded naturalist; Gregor environmental problems could coerce politi- research workers should be free to decide Mendel performed his experiments on cians and funding agencies to focus money the objects of their own research; and (iv) inheritance in the confines of a cloister. on what they understand as applied research those scientists who find that they do their

Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera (ICTJA-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain. E-mail: [email protected] DOI 10.15252/embr.201541377

ª 2015 The Author EMBO reports 1 Published online: December 21, 2015 EMBO reports Free science & society Valentí Rull

best work by themselves should not be stating that “academic freedom and scien- creation of spin-off companies in an effort to forced to carry out research in organised tific autonomy are vital for science to increase their income through licences or groups.” The SFS advocated that most fund- progress and best serve society” and that shares; others offer research services on a ing for research should proceed to come “political, religious and commercial pres- commercial basis to both public and private from governments, but, at the same time, a sures on both individual scientists and organisations. Even sharing material and large amount of money should be dedicated academic institutions are undermining the information among scientists—a central to collective research for the promotion of ability of researchers to work freely and tenet of free science—is becoming increas- general welfare [4]. Nevertheless, this without hindrance, threatening the Univer- ingly arduous with Material Transfer Agree- should be planned and executed by respon- sality of Science Principle” (http://www. ments involved whenever there is a whiff of sible scientists, not government authorities. icsu.org/freedom-responsibility/academic- commercialisation. Over time, the scientific community freedom)...... accepted and adopted the principles of the However, this freedom is not a given and SFS and the society was eventually dissolved increasingly threatened by what seems to be “Even if the value of basic, free in 1963. a return of Bernalism, though this time it is research is acknowledged, ...... not rooted in Marxism but in capitalism. there is always the implicit Europe is possibly the best place to observe notion that it does not come for “...modern democracies this rise of neo-Bernalism [5] through the enshrined freedom of research Horizon 2020 (H2020) programme, the free but, at the end, must together with freedom of speech objective of which is to foster economic somehow benefit nations, growth and make Europe a global economic in their constitutions, giving citizens and business” leader based on science and innovation ...... science an unprecedented (http://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon protected status in society” 2020/en/what-horizon-2020). This objective Under Bernalism, discoveries such as ...... inevitably transforms scientific research into the cosmic theory, the laws of gravitation, a political and economic instrument. Funda- the theory of evolution and the rules of Another influential scientist to defend mental science has its role and support inheritance, general relativity or quantum free science was the Director of the Office of under H2020, but it is reserved for a limited mechanics would have been unlikely Research and Development in the USA, number of exceptional researchers and (Fig 1). None of these discoveries resulted Vannevar Bush, who published his vision of research teams and therefore not available from the investigation of a particular, research freedom in Science the Endless for many other excellent scientists who immediate problem; they were the product Frontier, in 1945. The chapter “Freedom Of might end up doing research that satisfies of human curiosity and desire to under- Inquiry Must Be Preserved,” advocates that: the immediate needs of society or industry stand the world in which we live. “We must remove the rigid controls which in order to secure funding. One might argue However, our world would be entirely we have had to impose, and recover free- that H2020 is only a fraction of the money different without these discoveries, which dom of inquiry and that healthy competitive that is invested in research in the EU or even provide the basis for many social, cultural scientific spirit so necessary for expansion of globally, but the signs of neo-Bernalism are and technological achievements. In a the frontiers of scientific knowledge [...] in fact everywhere. Many national funding slave-science scenario, in which immediate Scientific progress on a broad front results agencies and schemes—from the US NIH to applicability is the norm, the progressive, from the free play of free intellects, working the UK’s Medical Research Council to long-term accumulation of knowledge that on subjects of their own choice, in the France’s CNRS and many others—are under is characteristic of free, unguided research manner dictated by their curiosity for explo- increasing pressure by politicians to at least is at risk of being replaced by a disordered ration of the unknown. Freedom of inquiry justify their calls for higher spending for aggregate of short-lived, unconnected must be preserved under any plan for science that it may generate new cures, new developments biased towards immediate Government support of science...”. Bush products, new services, new business and needs [5]. This could impact science, as pushed for the establishment of a US new jobs. Even if the value of basic, free much as the Catholic Church’s censorship National Science Foundation that follows research is acknowledged, there is always did during the dark Ages or as Lysenkoism the principles of free science, which became the implicit notion that it does not come for affected genetics in the Soviet Union, but reality in 1950. His vision of science as “the free but, at the end, must somehow benefit this time for economic, rather than ideolog- free play of free intellects, working on nations, citizens and business. ical reasons. subjects of their own choice,” has guided research in the USA and, to some extent in n a neo-Bernalist scenario, the ultimate eo-Bernalism is not the only threat Europe, until today. fate of universities and research institutes to free science. Another equally I would be to transform into organisations N dangerous development is “market reedom of science is still recognised as that offer research services that support science”. During the past decades, scien- the most successful path to generate economic growth and address societal needs. tific research has been transformed into a F benefits for and increase the welfare This transformation is already occurring: business-like activity guided by what looks of society. The International Council for universities and research institutes actively like market rules. A classic and highly Science (ICSU) captures this attitude by encourage intellectual property and the debated example is how researchers and

2 EMBO reports ª 2015 The Author Published online: December 21, 2015 Valentí Rull Free science & society EMBO reports

science. The more successful researchers will not be necessarily those who produce reliable and verified knowledge but those who adapt to the new market-like rules. Talented young researchers who conduct high-quality basic research might find it increasingly difficult to get a permanent position when competing with more market- adapted candidates...... “During the past decades, scientific research has been transformed into a business-like activity guided by what looks like market rules” ......

In my experience, many scholars support the analysis that Bernalism and market science are affecting contemporary research, but remain silent for fear of being excluded from the current funding system. Nonethe- less, a new movement called “slow science” has emerged over the past decade that tries to counter the increasing commercialisation of science and restore the freedom to conduct research without pressure. The term was coined by the American linguist Eugene Garfield in 1990 [6] as an alternative to “fast science”—ironically, Garfield was the father of bibliometrics and the founder of the Insti- tute for Scientific Information (ISI), in 1955, which led to the creation of the Science Cita- tion Index (SCI) and the invention of journal Figure 1. The potential effects of neo-Bernalism on basic research. impact factors [7]. However, at the time, Garfield could hardly predict that his creation would become the main currency of institutions are evaluated based on their PhD students and postdocs. The publica- market science. publication records using indicators such tion/citation records of the senior as the Journal Impact Factor or the researchers expand because in return for n opposition to market science, slow h-Index. This practice has scholars compete their management activities they are science prioritises quality over quantity. for citations in the same way that busi- included as co-authors—typically as last I Regarding publication practices, Joe¨l nessmen compete for money or politicians authors—in the papers produced by their Candau, an anthropologist at the University for votes; it has turned scientific research research group. Many scholars and adminis- of Nice, France (http://lasmic.unice.fr/ into a frenetic race for publications and trators thus regard them as top scientists, homepage-candau.html), wrote: “Because citations. although they are actually managers. the appraisers and other experts are always Another measure is the level of funding, Market-based scientometrics and compet- in a hurry too, our CVs are often solely eval- both in terms of the number of grants and itive fundraising tend to generate quantity uated by their length: how many publica- the total budget that a researcher or an insti- over quality, which can divert scientists tions, how many presentations, how many tution can obtain. The publication market from the true purpose of research, which is projects? This phenomenon creates an and the funding market are coupled in a not self-promotion but the generation of obsession with quantity in scientific produc- positive feedback and amplify each other. knowledge. Unfortunately, younger scien- tion. One result is that it is impossible to Many senior researchers are increasingly tists have matured within this framework read everything, even within a narrow caught up in executive tasks and relinquish and consider these circumstances to be speciality. Thus, many articles are never research to younger researchers, typically normal, which could be dangerous for future cited and they may not even be read. In this

ª 2015 The Author EMBO reports 3 Published online: December 21, 2015 EMBO reports Free science & society Valentí Rull

context, it is increasingly difficult to identify even a mailing address; it hosts “The Slow century, which has made many technologi- publications and presentations that really Science Manifesto”, the core message of cal breakthroughs during the 20th century. matter—those that a colleague has spent which is: “Science needs time to think. The Bell Works website heralds “The Trans- months, sometimes years, perfecting— Science needs time to read, and time to fail. former: the rebel, the trendsetter, the crafter among the thousands of others that are Science does not always know what it might of what’s next” (http://bell.works/offering/ duplicated, sliced and recycled, or even be at right now. Science develops unstea- collaborate). Other examples of highly more or less ‘borrowed’” [7]. dily, with jerky moves and unpredictable successful research institutes where scien- ...... leaps forward—at the same time, however, tists are free to think, develop their own it creeps about on a very slow time scale, for ideas and conduct experiments without pres- “The more successful which there must be room and to which sure to perform are the Laboratory of Molec- researchers will not be justice must be done. Slow science was ular Biology of the Medical Research pretty much the only science conceivable for Council (MRC-LMB) in Cambrige (UK) or necessarily those who produce hundreds of years; today, we argue, it the European Molecular Biology Laboratory reliable and verified deserves revival and needs protection. Soci- (EMBL), both of which are world leaders in knowledge but those who ety should give scientists the time they need, their areas. adapt to the new market-like but more importantly, scientists must take ...... their time. We do need time to think. We do rules” “ ...... need time to digest. We do need time to Perhaps it is time to revive misunderstand each other, especially when the Society for Freedom in fostering lost dialogue between humanities A basic tenet of slow science is that major and natural sciences. We cannot continu- Science, after its 50-year discoveries are the result of years of patient ously tell you what our science means; what slumber, as its task seems not work. An example is the elucidation of the it will be good for; because we simply don’t to have been properly structure of DNA by James Watson, Frances know yet”. fullfilled” Crick and Rosalind Franklin, which alto- Isabelle Stengers, a Belgian philosopher ...... gether required ~40 years of painstaking who co-authored the book Order out of research [6]. This discovery was made in a chaos with Nobel laureate Illya Prigogine, free-science environment without societal commented that even if some might view hese examples and similar others pressure because of the lack of immediately slow science as a utopian idea or a waste of could help convince others of the evident applications. Counter examples are time, it is worth cultivating it simply because T value of and need for a free/slow the fights against cancer and AIDS. These fast science is unsustainable in the long run science approach, not only for the benefit of research efforts have been the subject of [8]. Stengers makes a call to action by argu- science itself, but also to preserve its ability substantial political and popular pressure ing that life is “messy”, and therefore needs to solve practical problems and to promote and a major priority for public and private patient, painstaking research without pres- social welfare. However, the required funding agencies for decades, but despite sure to come up with results to understand change of mindset will not happen without some battles won, victory against these it. the direct involvement of the scientific diseases remains elusive [6]. The corollary To date, neither scholars such as community. Scientists need to stop and is that scientific discoveries and develop- Garfield, Candau or Stengers, nor The Slow think about scientific research itself and its ments require time. From a more personal Science Manifesto have changed the attitude current trends before Bernalism and market angle, slow science defenders note that of the scientific community. However, there science take over. Perhaps it is time to scientists also need time to live their lives, are some good examples of institutions that revive the Society for Freedom in Science, time for their families, friends, leisure, even have implemented the basic idea, even after its 50-year slumber, as its task seems for the pleasure of doing absolutely nothing though they do not explicitly mention “slow not to have been properly fullfilled. [7], just like any other citizen. science”. One example is the Janelia Perhaps the SFS should remain active Research Campus of the Howard Hughes indefinitely, given the historical recurrency et, the slow science movement is not Medical Institute in Virginia, USA. At of attacks on science from religion, politics an official organisation of scientists, Janelia, scientists have “... no deadlines, no or economy. Y nor a club or academy, and it is rules, no schedules, no tenure”, and highly cryptic. Literature and information on research “...is driven by passion, collabora- Conflict of interest slow science is surprisingly scarce. Apart tion and creativity” (https://www.janelia. The author declares that he has no conflict of from Garfield’s comment, which was org/janelia-philosophy). Projects are risky interest. published in The Scientist, most of the avail- and long-term and “... often fall outside the able literature consists of a small number realm of most funding and academic goals”. References of unpublished documents available on Scientists have “... time to ask the hard 1. Bernal JD (1939) The Social Function of Science. Internet websites. A website by the Slow questions that others haven’t been able to London: Routledge Science Academy in Berlin, Germany ask”. The Janelia Campus was inspired by 2. McGucken W (1978) On freedom and planning (http://slow-science.org/), has no informa- Bell Labs (New Jersey, USA), founded by in science: the Society for Freedom in Science, tion about members or its exact location or Alexander Graham Bell in the late 19th 1940–46. Minerva 16: 42 – 72

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3. Baker JR (1939) A counterblast to 5. Rull V (2014) The most important application 7. Garwood J (2012) Good science needs time to Bernalism. New Statesman Nat 18: 174 – of science. EMBO Rep 15: 919 – 922 mature and ripen!. Labtimes 2: 20 – 27 175 6. Garfield E (1990) Fast science versus slow 8. Stengers I (2011) Another Science is Possible! A 4. Tansley AG (1942) Letter to the Editor. Electro- science, or slow and steady wins the race. Plea for Slow Science. Belgium: Inaugural Lecture nic Eng 15: 177 Scientist 4: 388 – 389 Chair Willy Calewaert, Vrije Universiteit Brussel

ª 2015 The Author EMBO reports 5 Science & Society

The “Anthropocene”: neglects, misconceptions, and possible futures

The term “Anthropocene” is often erroneously used, as it is not formally defined yet

Valentí Rull

he term “Anthropocene” to describe ago albeit under a different name. Second, that these human relicts appeared at dif- anthropogenic global changes and its frequent and extended usage may create ferent times at different regions of the planet T their socio-political and philosophical the misconception that the term is already a and it would be difficult to find an initial repercussions has gained popularity during formal official unit of geologic time scale, date of global value. Despite being a novel the past years. Although it originated as a but it is not. Third, the current definition of idea on sound geological grounds, the scientific term to designate the geologic “Anthropocene” is a bet on the future and, “Anthropozoic” was lost over time. epoch in which we live, characterized by the as such, its meaning and eventual formaliza- ...... global impact of human activities on Earth tion depend on the future development of [1], “Anthropocene” has adopted a variety human affairs. “...there are several, well- of meanings in many other areas such as documented precursors of philosophy, sociology, communication, poli- The precursors of the “Anthropocene” the “Anthropocene”, but, tics, or law. In philosophy, the “Anthro- curiously, only this term pocene” has become an expression of In geology, “-cene” is the suffix for an modernity, an attack on Earth and the epoch, whereas “-zoic” is the corresponding has survived as a candidate for biosphere, or a biological imperative that is suffix for an era. Geological time units are a new potential geological inherent to human existence. In a political rock layers, called strata, organized into unit.” context, it has been contemplated a logical sequences. The geological branch that stud- ...... consequence of global capitalism or the ies these strata and their chronological decoupling between environmental health succession is stratigraphy. The Danish Other terms appeared, as, for example, and human welfare [2]. chemist Paul Crutzen and the American the “Psychozoic”, or the “reign of mind”, ...... ecologist Eugene Stoermer coined the term proposed by the American physician and “... “Anthropocene” a couple of decades ago [1]. geologist Joseph Le Conte in 1883. It would the current definition of But the idea of a new unit of the geological start in the Neolithic with the development “Anthropocene” is a bet on the time scale (GTS) characterized by the of polished stone tools and the worldwide future and, as such, its human impact on Earth was already expansion of agriculture, but Le Conte did meaning and eventual advanced in 1873 by the Italian geologist not emphasize the influence of human and priest Antonio Stoppani (Fig 1), who activities on Earth or the geological record formalization depend on the proposed the name “Anthropozoic” and that as Stoppani did. In 1922, the Russian geolo- future development of human the new unit should have the rank of an era gist Alexei Pavlov coined the term “Anthro- affairs.” [3]. He accurately described how what he pogene” (“-gene” is the formal suffix for a ...... called “human relicts” (tools, weapons, geological period) based on the emergence buildings, and products of art and industry) of the genus Homo, which would be more Notwithstanding its frequent and wide- and other evidences of human activities or less equivalent to the present Quaternary spread use, however, the appropriateness of have been accumulating in the Earth’s period. In 1924, the French theologist Pierre the term and concept of the “Anthropocene” surface in recent slumps lacustrine and Teilhard de Chardin, the French mathemati- is under vibrant debate. This essay aims to marine sediments, alluvial plains, deltas, cian and philosopher E´dourad Le Roy and clarify the issue and briefly discuss some marshes, peat bogs, caves, glacial moraines, the Ukrainian chemist Vladimir Vernadsky, points that are often ignored or go unno- or volcanic rocks. According to Stoppani, the father of biogeochemistry, proposed the ticed. First, the concept of the “Anthro- the “Anthropozoic” era should begin with term “noosphere” or the “sphere of mind” pocene” is not a recent invention but was the stone age with the first appearances of in analogy to the atmosphere or the first proposed about one century and a half carved stone. However, Stoppani realized biosphere. The noosphere was initially a

Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera (ICTJA-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain. E-mail: [email protected] DOI 10.15252/embr.201744231 | Published online 16 June 2017

1056 EMBO reports Vol 18 |No7 | 2017 ª 2017 The Author Valentí Rull “Anthropocene” neglects and misconceptions EMBO reports

worldwide glaciations, can be defined by changes in particular stratigraphic markers, such as the magnetic properties of rock components, shifts in the isotopic composition of selected elements, or the extinction of marine plankton species, as a consequence of an intense and global cooling that began 2.588 million years ago. Proposals for a new ICC unit should be submitted to the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS) for approval and the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) for ratification. In the case of the “Anthropocene”, the proposal is currently being prepared by the Anthropocene Working Group (AWG), led by the British geologist Jan Zalasiewicz from the University of Leicester, which brings together the most active defenders of the “Anthropocene” as a new epoch of the ICC, including Paul Crutzen [4]. The AWG was created in 2009 and plans to submit a proposal to the ICS in a couple of years. Figure 1. Antonio Stoppani (1824–1891). Why does it take so long? From: Il Bel Paese, conversazioni sulle bellezze naturali la geologia e la geologia e la geografia fisica d’Italia. Milano: Casa Editrice L.G. Cogliati. Characterizing the human impact on Earth based on a single worldwide event and its corresponding imprint in the purely metaphysical concept, but Vernadsky In summary, there are several, well-docu- geological record is not easy. In the origi- further developed the idea to include mented precursors of the “Anthropocene”, nal definition [1], the onset of the “Anthro- human transformation of the biosphere by but, curiously, only this term has survived pocene” was placed in the second half of industrialization and atomic energy. The as a candidate for a new potential geological the 18th century at the beginning of the noosphere would be the third stage in the unit. industrial revolution. The rationale was evolution of Earth, after the geosphere (the that industrialization represents the end of inanimate layer) and the biosphere. To The “Anthropocene” as a new agriculture as the dominant economic refer to the new era corresponding to the geological epoch activity, deeply changed human lifestyle, noosphere, Vernadsky used Le Conte’s and generated a new economic order. The “Psichozoic”. This leads us to one of the more prevalent use of fossil fuels increased the available The term “Atomic Age” was introduced misconceptions about the “Anthropocene” energy by 40 times between 1800 and by the Lithuanian-American journalist regarding its current status as a formal 2000, which triggered a 50-fold production William Lawrence in 1946 after the first epoch of the GTS. Many people, including growth and an increase of the human nuclear explosions. The “Atomic Age” was many scientists, believe that the “Anthro- population from one to six billion people. not intended as a new unit of the GTS, but pocene” is already an official epoch, but this Atmospheric CO2 concentration increased only as a historical phase. More recently, in is far from true. Similar to the Periodic from about 280 to 380 ppm during the 1988, the Armenian geological engineer System of Elements in chemistry, the global same period. George Ter-Stepanian argued that the standard reference for stratigraphic units is The most dramatic change occurred after current technological development of the International Chronostratigraphic World War II, during a phase known as the humankind was important enough to define Chart (ICC), which contains the hierarchical “great acceleration”, when all indicators of a new geological period, following the classification of eras, periods, epochs, and human activity experienced an amazing Quaternary, which he called “Technogene” so on. To formally define a new unit of the growth. Human population increased by 3 or “Quinary”. Few years later, in 1992, the ICC, several requirements need to be ful- billion in only 50 years and economic American historian and priest Thomas Berry filled. The new unit must be based on the production multiplied by 15. The number of proposed that the human misuse of technol- existence of a rock body (the stratotype), motor vehicles increased from 40 to 700 ogy will end at some point and will be which differs from underlying rocks and million, while petroleum consumption followed by a new era, the “Ecozoic”, in defines a clear stratigraphic boundary, called increased 3.5 times. Industrialization also which humans and Earth will live in the Global Stratotype Section and Point led to the concentration of the human popu- harmony. The last term proposed before the (GSSP) or the “golden spike”. Such a GSSP lation in big cities and the humanization of “Anthropocene”, and perhaps its precursor, must be the local expression of a global nearly half of the terrestrial surface. Biodi- was the “Anthrocene”, introduced by the phenomenon. For example, the GSSP of the versity depletion accelerated and atmo- American journalist Andrew Revkin in 1992. Pleistocene, characterized by the onset of spheric radioactivity increased due to

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nuclear detonations, which were not abol- consequence of burning forests to make way atomic explosions. They are now looking to ished until 1996. for fields. The increase of methane may have fit the stratotype and GSSP with ICS rules, The geological imprints of industrializa- been caused by rice cultivation, which which is expected to be accomplished in tion are numerous and varied, especially in requires permanently flooded terrains thus 2–3 years. lake and sea sediments and the polar ice favoring anoxic conditions and methane accumulated during the past ~70 years. production. Critiques of the “Anthropocene” Potential stratigraphic markers for the ...... “Anthropocene”, as defined by Crutzen and The AWG procedures and the outcome have Stoermer, are “fly ashes” form fossil fuel “The use of fossil fuels received scientific criticism. Some argue that combustion, which accumulated in sedi- increased the available energy the procedure is incorrect: The definition of ments and ice sheets. Another signature is by 40 times between 1800 and a new unit should come from a stratigraphic the presence of radioactive isotopes created 2000, which triggered a 50-fold need, that is, from the existence of a new by nuclear explosions: plutonium rock body and a distinct GSSP, whereas the (239+249Pu), lead (210P), or cesium (137Cs). production growth and an AWG is trying to define a new stratigraphic Other possible markers are shifts in the increase of the human unit based on a historical concept using a composition of fossil assemblages in lake population from one to six chronological benchmark. Defined this way, sediments as a result of drastic changes in billion people.” the “Anthropocene” is beyond the scientific aquatic communities owing to fertilizer ...... scope, because is not an evidence-based runoff from agriculture, especially in the concept. Another point is that the decision northern temperate countries. Acidification Others have proposed even earlier events to place the onset of the “Anthropocene” in of lakes and oceans has also left its fossil to define the “Anthropocene”: for example, 1945 significantly reduces the probability of imprint on sediments. Another potential the worldwide extinction of large mammals finding the desired stratotype. According to stratigraphic marker are plastics and other between 50,000 and 10,000 years ago. The the AWG, these would be lacustrine and synthetic materials, which did not exist causes for this disappearance of about half marine sediments, polar ice sheets and before industrialization. of all large mammal species from most calcareous skeletons, such as corals and ...... continents, except Africa, are still debated. speleothems. Thus, the stratigraphic mark- Some believe that this megafauna was not ers of the “Anthropocene” would appear “Characterizing the human able to adapt to warmer climates after the only in a thin and fragile layer deposited impact on Earth based on a last glaciation, while others argue that they during the last ~70 years. This turns the idea single worldwide event and its fell victim to human hunting. Whatever the of the “Anthropocene” into a prospect for cause, their extinction would have resulted the future, in the hope that these thin layers corresponding imprint in the in a global biological reorganization chang- will remain and keep growing until they can geological record is not easy.” ing the composition and functioning of most be unequivocally recognized by future geol- ...... ecosystems. The stratigraphic markers ogists. Such concept cannot be a strati- would be the joint accumulations of fossils graphic target of study, however, as Other scholars, led by the American pale- and hunting tools observed in a number of stratigraphy is concerned with the past. oclimatologist William Ruddiman, argue that rocks from this age. Another proposal places Recently, the members of the AWG have the “Anthropocene” began with the expan- the onset of the “Anthropocene” with the addressed these and other scientific criti- sion of agriculture 8,000 to 6,000 years ago, discovery of America, which has triggered a cisms but their position remains essentially known as the “Neolithic revolution”. The global biotic mixing and reorganization of the same [6,7]. main consequences were the replacement of the biosphere [5]. Another consequence was ...... original vegetation, which affected biodiver- the significant reduction of the American sity, and the disruption of global biogeo- population—from about 50–60 million “...the eventual formalization chemical cycles. The “Neolithic revolution” people in 1492 to six million in 1650—as a of the “Anthropocene” is a also caused a drastic change in human soci- consequence of wars, slave trading, starva- scientific issue and should be – eties from nomadic hunter gatherer groups tion, and diseases. According to the ecologist decoupled from environmental to permanent settlements, which developed Simon Levis and the climatologist Mark ” into cities. The stratigraphic markers would Maslin, this would have reduced agriculture policy...... matters be the occurrence of pollen of cultivated and associated deforestation and favoured plants, fossils of domestic ruminants, or the recovery of more than 50 million Other critics emphasize the socio-political human tools in the sedimentary rocks hectares of forests and savannas. aspects: The American geologists Stanley formed in those dates. Other markers All these possibilities and others were Finney and Lucy Edwards argue that the th proposed by Ruddiman are CO2 and analyzed by the AWG during the 35 Inter- formalization of the “Anthropocene” as a methane concentrations in the atmosphere, national Geological Congress held at Cape new geological epoch follows political, which began to increase 8,000 and Town in August 2016. The AWG agreed on rather than scientific reasons and that the 5,000 years ago, respectively, as docu- locating the onset of the “Anthropocene” in ICS should not take scientific decisions mented in polar ice sheets. Ruddiman 1945 and suggested that the stratigraphic under political pressure [6]. This is not

explained the CO2 increase as the marker could be the plutonium generated by dismissed by the AWG members [7], many

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of whom believe that human impact on [9], the “Anthropocene” or any other unit incoming of the next glaciation. Since the Earth should be formally recognized if only with the prefix “anthropo-” would be the beginning of the Pleistocene, the Earth has for society and governments to be aware of last unit of the GTS. Perhaps it is worth then undergone more than 40 glaciations that it. Under such circumstances, ICS/IUGS to upgrade this unit to a higher stratigraphic consisted of an expansion of the polar ice members fear that an eventual rejection of rank, such as the “Anthropozoic” proposed sheets accompanied by the extension of the proposal, even based on strict scientific by Stoppani almost a century and a half ago. mountain glaciers worldwide and intense criteria, might be unpopular and viewed as global cooling. Each glaciation has been compliance with those who exploit the The end of the “Anthropocene” followed by a warmer interglacial phase. planet as if its resources and recovery capac- These glacial/interglacial phases are ity were unlimited. For example, Stanley From an evolutionary perspective, there is governed by astronomical cycles of the Finney, who is a member of the IUGS execu- no reason to assume that species, Homo Earth’s movements around the Sun. The tive committee, claims to feel “like a light- sapiens in particular, are eternal. Indeed, the more recent glaciations occurred at a house with a huge tsunami wave coming at geological record shows us that species end 100,000-year frequency with interglacial it” under such situation. Ideally, the even- up being extinct at one time or another. Our phases lasting between 10,000 and tual formalization of the “Anthropocene” is extinction, however, must not necessarily be 30,000 years. The last glaciation reached its a scientific issue and should be decoupled catastrophic; there are other ways to become maximum some 20,000 years ago and from environmental policy matters. The extinct as a species while leaving genetic affected large parts of Europe and North roots of Earth’s current exploitation should legacy in the form of one or more descen- America, which were under several kilome- not be sought in academic affairs but in the dant species [10]. Whatever the case, our ters deep ice sheets. Most of Europe was dominant economic system based on the extinction as a species would mark the end covered by tundra and cold steppes with utopia of unlimited growth. of the “Anthropocene” or the “Anthropo- forests only on the southern peninsulas (Ibe- zoic”, but the Earth and its biosphere will ria, Italy and Greece). At present, we are in The future of the “Anthropocene” continue its travel through space and time. the Holocene interglacial that began The issue of an “Anthropocene”, the GTS, 11,700 years ago. It seems clear that humanity is changing the and the whole stratigraphic framework, as Another glaciation, if it happened today, Earth and that this time span is worth a human constructions, would no longer exist would drastically reduce Earth’s population, specific term, as other historical phases. But if our descendant species were no longer especially in the Northern industrialized defining a new geological epoch, as the AWG interested in stratigraphic affairs. countries, which could cause a global social pursues, is a different undertaking and ...... and economic collapse. Models based on the should be based on stratigraphic needs and observed Pleistocene cycles estimate that the rules. Some have therefore proposed using “...our extinction as a species next glaciation could start between 1,500 “Anthropocene” as a historical term without would mark the end of the and 10,000 years from now and reach mini- any geological meaning, which has fostered, “Anthropocene” or the mum temperatures and, hence, the maxi- in part, the spectacular expansion of the “Anthropozoic”, but the Earth mum glacier extent, 60,000 years from now. word. However, the termination “-cene” is If the next glaciation ends the influence of reserved for the formal geological epochs of and its biosphere will continue mankind as a major geological force, as the Cenozoic era and, therefore, “Anthro- its travel through space and suggested by Crutzen and Stoermer, the pocene” implicitly refers to a geologic epoch. time.” “Anthropocene” would have been a phase For similar reasons, a historical name free ...... of some 10,000 years during the current from stratigraphic burden should not contain interglacial and the definition of a new the suffixes “-zoic” or “-gene” either [8]. In the absence of a total extinction of geological epoch would not be necessary. In Finally, one could also speculate about humankind, our influence on Earth and the other words, an “Anthropocene” would the “Anthropocene” in light of the possible corresponding stratigraphic imprint may make sense only if the current glacial–inter- future that awaits our species, which is disappear or become negligible after a dras- glacial cycle is disrupted. Some researchers, rarely considered in this context. In their tic reduction in the human population and/ Ruddiman among them, believe that anthro- introduction of the term, Crutzen and Stoer- or a change in our relationship with the pogenic global warming will not stop in the mer wrote that the incoming of the “Anthro- planet. The “Anthropocene” or “Anthropo- near future and thereby postpone the next pocene” could only be prevented by a global zoic” would end with ourselves on board glaciation. In that case, the physical catastrophe—massive volcanic eruptions, a and a new geologic epoch/era about to evidence for the “Anthropocene” would nuclear war, asteroid impacts, a glaciation, begin, assuming that human societies still keep accumulating in rocks for the benefit of or a socio-ecological collapse caused by our care about stratigraphy. Yet, such a change eventual future geologists. own stupidity—that eliminates or signifi- of the human population or lifestyle seems In summary, for the “Anthropocene” to cantly reduces the human population. This unlikely in the current political and become a reality, the glacial–interglacial opens a more philosophical debate about economic scenario. cycle must be interrupted by anthropogenic how long humankind will persist on this Among the possible cataclysms forcing. If predictions about the next planet and shape it. If we were indeed perma- mentioned by Curtzen and Stoermer, the glaciation are correct, we should still nently—whatever this means—influencing only predictable change that could drasti- wait one or more millennia (40 or more the Earth, as many people take for granted cally reduce human population is the generations) for an answer. If a natural or

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anthropogenic global catastrophe annihilates References or political statement? GSA Today 26: humankind in the meantime, the problem 1. Crutzen PJ, Stoermer EF (2000) The ‘Anthro- 4 – 10 disappears with us. If we evolve into other pocene’. IGBP Newsl 41: 17 – 18 7. Zalasiewicz J, Waters C, Wolfe AP, Barnosky T, species, the answer will depend on their 2. Autin WJ (2016) Multiple dichotomies of the Cearreta A, Edgeworth M, Ellis EC, Fairchild I, eventual interest in geology and the GTS. Anthropocene. Anthropocene Rev 3: 218 – 230 Gradstein FM, Grinevald J et al (2017) Making Therefore, in the present state of knowledge, 3. Stoppani A (1873) Corso di Geologia. Milano: G the case for a formal Anthropocene Epoch: it is not possible to predict whether the Bernardoni e G Brigola Editori an analysis of ongoing critiques. Newsl “Anthropocene” will be a new geological 4. Zalasiewicz J, Williams M, Haywood A, Ellis Stratigr 50: 205 – 226 epoch/era—probably the last stratigraphic M(2011) The Anthropocene: a new epoch of 8. Rull V (2016) The Humanized Earth System unit of the GTS—or an unnecessary term geological time? Phil Trans R Soc A 369: (HES). Holocene 26: 1513 – 1515 and concept. Time will tell. 835 – 841 9. Williams M, Zalasiewicz J, Haff PK, Schwägerl C, 5. Lewis SL, Maslin MA (2015) Defining the Barnosky AD, Ellis E (2015) The Anthropocene Conflict of interest Anthropocene. Nature 519: 171 – 180 biosphere. Anthropocene Rev 2: 196 – 219 The author declares that he has no conflict of 6. Finney SC, Edwards LE (2015) The 10. Rull V (2009) Beyond us. EMBO Rep 10: interest. ‘Anthropocene’ epoch: scientific decision 1191 – 1195

1060 EMBO reports Vol 18 |No7 | 2017 ª 2017 The Author Collectanea Botanica 36: e008 enero-diciembre 2017 ISSN-L: 0010-0730 http://dx.doi.org/10.3989/collectbot.2017.v36.008

The “Anthropocene” uncovered

V. RULL

Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera (ICTJA-CSIC), c. Lluís Solé i Sabarís, s/n, ES-08028 Barcelona, Spain

ORCID iD. V. RULL: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9961-105X

E-mail: [email protected]

Editor: J. López-Pujol

Received 30 May 2017; accepted 14 June 2017; published on line 12 September 2017

Abstract The “AnThropocene” uncovered.— The “Anthropocene”, defined as a new geological epoch characterized by the global human footprint on Earth System, has become a term frequently used in a varied range of fields. However, some fundamental misconceptions remain on the origin and the scientific validity of this term. A common misconception is that the “Anthropocene” term and concept originated at the beginning of this century but the truth is that the concept was fully developed more than 140 years ago. Another frequent fallacy is that the “Anthropocene” is already a formal geological term. However, the process of its formalization as a new unit of the Geological Time Scale has not even begun. Another poorly addressed aspect is the significance of future human developments, from both cultural and evolutionary points of view, in the eventual definition of a new geological epoch as the “Anthropocene”. This essay discusses these aspects for a non-specialized audience. The potential consequences of the uncontrolled human pressure on Earth System and the need for redressing our relationship with the planet are not under discussion. This essay is concerned only with the initiative of using this argument to propose that we have entered a new epoch of the Geological Time Scale.

Key words: Anthropocene; anthropogenic forcing; Anthropozoic; Geological Time Scale; human footprint; stratigraphy.

Resumen el “AnTropoceno” Al desnudo.— El “Antropoceno”, definido como una nueva época geológica caracterizada por la huella humana global sobre el Sistema Tierra, se ha convertido en un término muy usado en una gran variedad de disciplinas. Sin embargo, todavía hay una serie de ideas equivocadas sobre el origen y la validez científica de este término. Un error muy común es pensar que el término y el concepto de “Antropoceno” se originaron a principios de este siglo, pero la verdad es que este concepto ya estaba plenamente desarrollado hace más de 140 años. Otra equivo- cación frecuente es considerar que el “Antropoceno” ya es un término geológico formal, cuando la realidad es que el proceso de su formalización como una nueva época de la Escala del Tiempo Geológico ni siquiera ha empezado. Otro aspecto muy poco tratado es la importancia del futuro cultural y evolutivo de nuestra especie en la eventual definición de una nueva época geológica como el “Antropoceno”. En este ensayo se discuten estos aspectos para una audiencia no especializada. Las posibles consecuencias de la presión humana incontrolada sobre el Sistema Tierra y la necesidad de reconsiderar nuestra relación con el planeta no se discuten aquí. El ensayo está centrado, únicamente, en la utilización de este argumento para proponer que hemos entrado en una nueva época de la Escala del Tiempo Geológico.

Palabras clave: Antropoceno; Antropozoico; Escala del Tiempo Geológico; estratigrafía; forzamiento antrópico; huella humana.

Cómo citar este artículo / Citation Rull, V. 2017. The “Anthropocene” uncovered. Collectanea Botanica 36: e008. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.3989/collectbot.2017. v36.008

INTRODUCTION the “Anthropocene” while waiting for its eventual approval as a formal term. The scientific validity The use of the term “Anthropocene” is growing of both the name and the concept of the “Anthro- fast and spreading over a wide range of scientific pocene” is currently under discussion and the final and non-scientific disciplines. This term embod- outcome, for which we should still wait several ies not only the notion of the ongoing anthropo- years, is totally uncertain. genic global change but also its human perception This essay aims to help clarifying the topic by and the resulting socio-political and philosophical summarizing the main points of view existing to repercussions. As a consequence, the “Anthropo- date and the current status of the term in a scien- cene” has become a successful term and concept tific context. The analysis highlights the following to express the nature and characteristics of the hu- points that are often ignored or go unnoticed (Rull, man footprint on Earth. Although the term “An- in press): (1) the “Anthropocene” is not a recent in- thropocene” was born in a scientific environment, vention, it was already proposed about one century it is now intensively and extensively used in many and a half ago, but this has been neglected; (2) its other areas such as philosophy, sociology, commu- frequent and extended usage may lead non-special- nication, politics or law, just to cite a few. From a ists to the misconception that the term is already a scientific point of view, the term “Anthropocene” formal official unit of Geologic Time Scale (GTS) was proposed to designate the new geologic ep- but, in fact, it is not even a proposal of it; and (3) as och in which we live, characterized by the global currently defined, the “Anthropocene” is a bet on the impact of human activities on the Earth System future and, as such, its meaning and eventual for- (Crutzen & Stoermer, 2000; Crutzen, 2002). But in malization are dependent on the future development other disciplines, this term has adopted a variety of human affairs, which are largely unpredictable. of meanings. For example, in philosophy, the “An- This paper is intended for a wide audience, with or thropocene” has been considered as an expression without earth-science background and familiarized of modernity, an attack to the Earth System or a or not with the topic of the “Anthropocene”, but in- biological imperative, that is, something inevitable terested in knowing more on what lies behind this and inherent to the human existence. In a political name, which has transcended the scientific arena and context, this term has been contemplated as an as- seems to be gaining a place in everyday language. sault to the human rights, a logical consequence of the global capitalism or the definitive decoupling between environmental health and human welfare THE “ANTHROPOCENE” IS AN OLD (Autin, 2016). CONCEPT Despite its frequent and widespread usage, the convenience or not of using the term “Anthropo- Some authors defend that the concept of the “An- cene” is under vibrant debate (e.g. Edwards, 2015; thropocene” has no precursors (Hamilton & Grinev- Finney & Edwards, 2015; Zalasiewicz et al., 2016a, ald, 2015) and give all credit to Crutzen & Stoermer 2017). Some use the term with quotation marks, as (2000), who coined the term at the beginning of this usual for informal geological names, others without century. But the idea of a new unit of the GTS defined them as if the term were already official, and others by the global human impact on Earth and its imprint deny its usage at all (Klein, 2015), which might cre- in the geological record was already advanced at least ate confusion among non-specialists and the gener- a century and a half ago. Since those times, a number al public. Some mass media also add noise by using of other similar proposals emerged. A brief account headlines and spreading news that often distort the is provided here with emphasis on the “Antropozoic” facts. Examples are: Welcome to the Anthropocene era, which is the most comprehensive, accurate and (The Economist, May 26th 2011), Anthropocene: geologically sound precursor of the “Anthropocene”. new dates proposed for the ‘Age of Man’ (BBC, March 11th 2015) or The Anthropocene epoch: The “Antropozoic” era scientists declare dawn of human-influenced age (The Guardian, August 29th 2016). The issue is not Antonio Stoppani (1873; Fig. 1) proposed that only a matter of using or not quotation marks for the influence of humans on Earth and the resulting

Collectanea Botanica vol. 36 (enero-diciembre 2017), e008, ISSN-L: 0010-0730, http://dx.doi.org/10.3989/collectbot.2017.v36.008 The “Anthropocene” uncovered 3

Figure 1. Antonio Stoppani (1824–1891) in his studio. Unknown author, modified from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An- tonio_Stoppani. physical, biological and geological imprint was called “human relicts” (tools, weapons, buildings great enough to deserve the definition of a new and any products of art and industry) have been era, which he called “Anthropozoic” (in geolo- accumulating in recent rocks following the laws gy, “-zoic” is the corresponding suffix for an era, of stratigraphy. He also identified the potentially whereas “-cene” is the specific suffix for an ep- better suited rocks to be used to define the “An- och). Stoppani not only defined the “Anthropozo- thropozoic” and suggested, among others, recent ic” but also pointed out that the rocks formed slumps lacustrine and marine sediments, alluvial during human existence contained the physical plains, deltas, marshes, peat bogs, caves, glacial evidence needed to define this new era in geologi- moraines or recent volcanic rocks. Stoppani also cal terms. Geological time units should be defined tried to identify a potential starting time for the on the basis of characteristic rock features, it is not new era. According to him, the onset of the “An- possible to describe and name a new geological thropozoic” era should be placed at the begin- unit without the corresponding tangible evidence ning of the Stone Age, characterized by the first contained in rocks, which form the geological appearances of carved stone. However, Stoppani clock. Geological time cannot be measured with- realized that these human relicts appeared at dif- out such clock, whose time units are rock layers, ferent times on the different regions of the planet called strata. Stratigraphy is the geological branch and it would be difficult to find an initial date of that studies the nature of these strata and their global value. Despite being a novel and very well chronological succession. Stoppani described elaborated idea with sound stratigraphic grounds, accurately how mankind have transformed the the proposal of the “Anthropozoic” era was lost in Earth’s sedimentary processes and how what he the night of time.

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Other similar terms and concepts of the GTS, it was considered only a new historical phase. More recently, George Ter-Stepanian (1988) The “Anthropozoic” is not the only term coined to considered that the current technological develop- define a new geological unit characterized by the ment of humankind was significant enough to define human impact on Earth and its stratigraphic im- a new geological period, following the Quaternary, print. Other terms have appeared through history which he called “Technogene” or “Quinary”. Few as for example the “Psychozoic”, or the “reign of years later, Thomas Berry (1992) proposed that the mind”, proposed by Joseph Le Conte (1883). Ac- increasing disruptions in the functioning of Earth cording to this author, the new era began in the Ne- System caused by the human misuse of technology olithic, characterized by the development of tools will end at some point and will be followed by a new of polished stone and the worldwide expansion of era, the “Ecozoic”, characterized by a new state in the agriculture, but Le Conte did not make empha- which humans and Earth will live in harmony. The sis on the global influence of human activities on last term proposed before the “Anthropocene”, and Earth or in the geological record. In 1922, Alexei perhaps its more evident terminological precursor— Pavlov coined the term “Anthropogene” to refer to although it should be noted that some English trans- the period (“-gene” is the formal suffix for a ge- lations from Russian used “Anthropocene” instead ological period) of existence of the genus Homo of “Anthropogene” for the already mentioned Pav- (Gerasimov, 1979), unlike Stoppani and Le Con- lov’s period—was the “Anthrocene”, introduced by te, who considered their respective eras as defined journalist Andrew Revkin (1992). by our species, Homo sapiens. Defined in this way, the “Anthropogene” would be more or less equiv- The only survivor alent to the present Quaternary period, characterized by the occurrence of recurrent global glacia- All these names and concepts, and others (Rull, in tions. Shortly after, in the 1920s, Pierre Teilhard press), emerged before the definition of the “Anthro- de Chardin created the term “noosphere” or the pocene”. Therefore, the precursors of this term and “sphere of mind” as the thinking layer of Earth, by the concept it involves are evident, numerous and analogy with the atmosphere (the aerial layer) or well documented, and cannot be ignored. Neglect- the biosphere (the living layer). At the beginning, ing this background does not make sense, as most the noosphere was a purely metaphysical concept of this literature, including digital reproductions the (Teilhard de Chardin, 1955) but a decade later, original books of Stoppani or Le Conte, among oth- Vladimir Vernadsky, the father of the biogeochem- ers, are freely available on Internet. By reading these istry, developed the idea and emphasized that the books it is easy to realize the inaccuracy of some noosphere could be considered the result of the hu- statements as, for example, that of Zalasiewicz et man transformation of the biosphere boosted by the al. (2017) who contend that the supposed “Anthro- industrialization, which revolutionized the produc- pocene” precursors “. . . do not explicitly address tive capacity of humans and transformed human- the stratigraphic record”. The Stoppani’s Corso di kind into a new geological force capable of affect- Geologia (three volumes) can be read and down- ing the Earth System as a whole (Vernadsky, 1997). loaded in some websites (e.g. https://catalog.hathi- The noosphere has remained in history as the third trust.org/Record/001518767). The book is in Italian stage in the evolution of Earth, after the geosphere but Turpin & Federighi (2012) provide an English (the inanimate layer) and the biosphere, rather than translation of some excerpts relevant to the defini- as a proposal for a new geological era. tion of the “Anthropozoic” era. The second volume The term “atomic age” (also known as “atomic is dedicated to stratigraphic geology and the “An- era”) was introduced by journalist William Law- thropozoic” is defined, described and characterized rence in 1946, just after the Second World War, in chapters 31 to 33 (121 pages). Stoppani analyzes to define the new state of the Earth after the first in great detail the stratigraphic features of the “An- nuclear explosions, which produced changes in the thropozoic” and subdivides this new “era” into its composition of the atmosphere with potentially sig- corresponding stratigraphic units, which are care- nificant biological and sociological consequences. fully characterized by their respective sedimentary The “atomic age” was not intended as a new unit rocks and stratigraphic markers including not only

Collectanea Botanica vol. 36 (enero-diciembre 2017), e008, ISSN-L: 0010-0730, http://dx.doi.org/10.3989/collectbot.2017.v36.008 The “Anthropocene” uncovered 5 human remains but also fossil faunas. There are Each subcommission can organize working groups, other “Anthropocene” precursors with stratigraphic whose task is to carefully analyze a particular strati- meaning, as for example the “Antropogene” or the graphic boundary, usually the lower boundary that “Technogene”. But the truth is that all of them have defines a stratigraphic unit. Once the working group been neglected and the “Anthropocene” is the only has a final proposal for the boundary under study, it currently under scrutiny as a potential geologic unit. is submitted to the corresponding subcommission for approval, which requires 60% or more of the votes. If approved, the proposal goes to the ICS Bu- CURRENT GEOLOGICAL STATUS OF reau, which is formed by the Executive Committee THE “ANTHROPOCENE” of the ICS plus the chairmans of all subcommis- sions. Again, if the proposal receives 60% or more One of the more extended misconceptions about votes, it is approved and submitted to the Executive the “Anthropocene” is its current status as a formal Committee of the IUGS for ratification. If ratified, epoch of the GTS. Many people, including many the boundary and the new stratigraphic unit it de- scientists, believe that the “Anthropocene” is al- fines are considered to be formalized (Fig. 2). ready an official geological epoch and, as such, the To be acceptable, a stratigraphic boundary term can be freely used without quotation marks should be globally synchronous and based on ob- and capitalized. Noteworthy, there are three scien- servable and/or measurable rock properties. The tific journals that use the name as if it were already boundary should be the reflection of a global event, a formal term, they are: The Anthropocene (Else- although its manifestation in each particular rock vier), The Anthropocene Review (SAGE Publica- body can be different. For example, the beginning tions) and Elementa: the Science of Anthropocene of the Quaternary, characterized by the onset of (University of California Press). However, this be- recent worldwide glaciations, can be marked by lief is far from true, as we will see in this section. changes in the magnetic properties of rock components, shifts in the isotopic composition of selected Modifying the Geological Time Scale elements or the extinction of characteristic marine plankton species, among others, but all these mark- The International Commission on Stratigraphy ers are a consequence of an intense and global cool- (ICS) is the section of the International Union of ing occurred ~2.6 million years ago, which initiat- Geological Sciences (IUGS) responsible for the ed the glaciations. Each stratigraphic unit is defined definition, characterization and classification of the in a particular sequence of rock strata (the strato- global units of the International Chronostratigraph- type) from a precise geographical location (the type ic Chart (ICC), which are the basis for the units of locality) but it should have equivalent representa- the GTS. Any proposal for incorporating or mod- tives worldwide. The specific properties that differ- ifying a stratigraphic unit of the ICC and, there- entiate a unit from another are called stratigraphic fore, of the GTS, must be submitted to the ICS for markers. The lower boundary of a unit is called the approval. The ICC is for geoscience the same that Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) and is the Periodic Table of Elements for chemistry, and indicated in the type locality by a physical mark, has been considered one of the great achievements called “golden spike”. The main task of each work- of humanity (Monastersky, 2015). The rules and ing group is to define the stratotype, the type lo- requirements that guide the formalization of new cality and the GSSP for the stratigraphic unit they stratigraphic units are compiled in the Internation- deal with, in order to submit a proposal to the corre- al Stratigraphic Guide (Salvador, 1994; Murphy & sponding subcommission and start the protocol for Salvador, 1999). The detailed procedures are avail- an eventual approval and ratification. able at the ICS website (http://www.stratigraphy. In the case of the “Anthropocene”, the work- org) and are summarized at following. ing group in charge is the Anthropocene Working The ICS is structured into a number of sub- Group (AWG) (https://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/ commissions responsible for the standardization workinggroups/anthropocene/), belonging to the of particular stratigraphic units (e.g. Precambrian, Subcommission of Quaternary Stratigraphy (SQS). Silurian, Jurassic, Cretaceous, Quaternary, etc.). The AWG was created in 2009 and is formed by 39

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Figure 2. Flow chart of the approval and ratification procedure of new stratigraphic units, according to the rules of the ICS. Modified from Rull (in press). members, including several of the more enthusias- ed a new economic order. Until that time, the main tic defenders of the “Anthropocene” as a new epoch energy sources were the movement of water and air of the GTS, who have been very active promoting and the biological activity of primary producers, all such initiative in the scientific literature (e.g. Stef- of them derived from solar energy. With the discov- fen et al., 2011; Zalasiewicz et al., 2011a, b, 2015, ery of fossil fuels, the available energy increased by 2016b, 2017; Waters et al., 2014, 2016) and also in 40 times between 1800 and 2000, which derived in public media. But the “Anthropocene” is still in a a 50-fold production increment and an increase of very early stage of the ICS protocol for approval total population from one to six billion people. One and ratification. In fact, it is not even a proposal yet. of the main products of the fossil fuel combustion

After seven years of discussions, the members have is CO2, which atmospheric concentration increased not yet defined a stratotype, a type locality and a from about 280 to 380 ppm during the same period GSSP for the “Anthropocene”. Therefore, the “An- and, given its significant greenhouse effect, contrib- thropocene” proposal does not yet exist. uted to the ongoing global warming (Waters et al., 2014; Lewis & Maslin, 2015). Many possible “anthropocenes” The more dramatic shift occurred after the Sec- ond World War (~1950), during the phase known Characterizing the human impact on Earth by a sin- as the “great acceleration”, when all the indicators gle worldwide event and its corresponding strati- of human activity experienced an amazing quick- graphic imprint of global validity in the geological ening (Fig. 3). Human population increased by 3 record is not easy. In the original definition, the on- billion in only 50 years and the economic produc- set of the “Anthropocene” was placed in the second tion multiplied by 15 during the same period. The half of the 18th century, at the beginning of the in- number of motor vehicles raised from 40 to 700 dustrial revolution, characterized by an increase in million, the petroleum consumption increased 3.5 the atmospheric CO2 concentration without parallel times and the concentration of greenhouse gas- in human history (Crutzen & Stoermer, 2000). The es (CO2, methane, fluorocarbons…) experienced industrialization represented the end of the agricul- a dramatic increment. The industrialization also ture as the dominant economic activity, which deter- caused the concentration of human population in mined a deep change in human lifestyle and generat- big cities and the humanization of nearly the half

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Figure 3. Changes in global temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration during the last century. CO2 concentration is expressed as parts per million (ppm) and temperature as the anomaly with respect with the 1961–1990 average. Modified from Lewis & Maslin (2015). of the terrestrial surface (Ellis et al., 2010, 2015). in the northern temperate countries. Another poten- Biodiversity depletion also accelerated and some tial stratigraphic marker is plastic and other synthet- refer to the “sixth mass extinction” (Dirzo et al., ic materials, nonexistent before the industrialization, 2014) by analogy with former mass extinctions ob- but present in the more recent sediments (Zalasiew- served in the geological record, of which the dino- icz et al., 2011a, b; Waters et al., 2014, 2016). saur extinction, occurred 66 million years ago, was Other scholars argue that the “Anthropocene” the fifth. Atmospheric radioactivity also increased began much earlier, with the worldwide expansion due to nuclear detonations, which started in 1945 of the agriculture occurred between 8000 and 6000 and were not abolished until 1996. years before present, which is known as the “Ne- The geological imprint of the industrialization olithic revolution” (Ruddiman, 2003, 2013). This and the “great acceleration” are numerous and var- is called the “early Anthropocene” hypothesis. The ied, especially in lake and sea sediments, as well as main consequences of the global development of in polar ice. Potential stratigraphic markers for the agriculture were the replacement of original vege- “Anthropocene”, as defined by Crutzen & Stoermer tation, which favors local extinction and, as a con- (2000), are the particles called “fly ashes”, released sequence, biodiversity reduction and the disruption to the atmosphere by fossil fuel combustion, which of global biogeochemical cycles, which affects the ultimately accumulated in sediments and ice sheets. atmospheric composition. In humans, the “Neo- The accumulation of radioactive elements as for ex- lithic revolution” caused a drastic change from ample isotopes of carbon (14C), plutonium (239+249Pu), nomadic hunter-gatherer to more sedentary socie- lead (210P) or cesium (137Cs), among others, is also a ties dedicated to the care of domestic plants and differential signature to define the “Anthropocene” animals, which determined the establishment of onset. Other possible markers are shifts in the com- more permanent settlements and leaded to the de- position of fossil assemblages in lake sediments as a velopment of cities. Ecosystems were profoundly result of drastic changes in the aquatic communities affected, mainly forests, which began to be cut and due to the eutrophication of these water bodies by burnt and replaced by crop fields. In this case, the fertilization with nutrients released by human activ- stratigraphic markers could be the occurrence, in the ities, a phenomenon of worldwide extent, especially sedimentary rocks formed in those dates, of pollen

Collectanea Botanica vol. 36 (enero-diciembre 2017), e008, ISSN-L: 0010-0730, http://dx.doi.org/10.3989/collectbot.2017.v36.008 8 V. RULL of cultivated plants, fossils of domestic ruminants or Whatever the cause, megafaunal extinction would human tools related with these activities. Other pro- have resulted in a global biological reorganization posed markers are CO2 and methane concentrations, by changing the composition and the functioning of which experienced an increase 8000 and 5000 years ecosystems from most continents. For those who de- ago, respectively, as documented in polar ice sheets fend the anthropogenic explanation, the stratigraphic

(Fig. 4). The CO2 increase has been interpreted as markers for this “Anthropocene” would be the joint the consequence of forest burning, which released accumulations of mammal fossils and hunting tools significant amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere. The observed in sedimentary rocks. increase of methane has been considered to be the Another proposal is to place the onset of the “An- result of the development of rice cultivation, which thropocene” in the discovery of America (1492) or requires permanently flooded terrains thus favoring slightly later (~1600), which has been considered the anoxic conditions and increasing methane produc- first globalization event, known as the “Columbian tion (Ruddiman, 2013, 2015). interchange”, resulting in a worldwide biological Others propose different dates for the “Anthropo- revolution leading to biotic mixing and reorganiza- cene” onset, as for example the worldwide extinction of the biosphere (Crosby, 2003; Mann, 2011). tion of large mammals occurred between 50,000 Another consequence was the significant reduction and 10,000 years before present (BP). The causes of the American population—from about 50–60 for the global disappearance of about the half of million people in 1492 to six million in 1650—as a large mammal species (over 40 kg of body weight consequence of wars, slave trading, starvation and in adult stage) from most continents, except Africa, the introduction of alien epidemic diseases. Accord- are still debated. Some believe that megamammals ing to Lewis & Maslin (2015), this would have been did not resist the incoming of warmer climates after reduced agriculture and the associated deforestation the last glaciation, whereas others defend that mas- habits thus favoring the recovery of more than 50 sive human hunting was the main cause and a third million hectares of forests and savannas. The main group considers that both climatic and anthropogen- stratigraphic markers of this event would be fossils ic drivers would have been involved (Barnosky et of American plants in European rocks or fossils from al., 2004; Lorenzen et al., 2011; Barnosky, 2014). plants native to Asia in American rocks, from 1600

Figure 4. Changes in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) during the Holocene (ppm: parts per million; ppb: parts per billion). Modified from Ruddiman (2013).

Collectanea Botanica vol. 36 (enero-diciembre 2017), e008, ISSN-L: 0010-0730, http://dx.doi.org/10.3989/collectbot.2017.v36.008 The “Anthropocene” uncovered 9 onwards. Another marker would be the reduction of proposal is incorrect. According to the ICS rules, the atmospheric CO2 observed in polar ice sheets be- definition of a new stratigraphic unit should come tween 1570 and 1620, possibly as a consequence of from a stratigraphic need, that is, from the existence an increase of photosynthesis owing to forest/savan- of a rock body that should be defined, named, char- na recovery (Lewis & Maslin, 2015). acterized and dated, in order to be included in the ICC. On the contrary, the AWG is trying to force the The current status definition of a new stratigraphic unit on the basis of pre-defined historical and chronological concepts. All the above possibilities and others were analyzed Defined in this way, the “Anthropocene” stratotype, by the AWG and the final decision was taken by vot- its stratigraphic markers and its GSSP are not the pri- ing, during the 35th International Geological Con- mary evidence for the new stratigraphic unit —as re- gress held at Cape Town in August 2016. The AWG quired by the stratigraphic rules—and are subjected agreed in locating the onset of the “Anthropocene” to changes according to the chronological criterion in 1945 and suggested that the better stratigraphic adopted by the AWG. Thus, the “Anthropocene” is marker could be the plutonium increase generated not an evidence-based concept and is therefore be- by the atomic explosions. The detailed report of yond the scientific scope. the AWG Cape Town meeting is reproduced in the Another drawback is that the decision of the Appendix. The coincidence of this “Anthropocene” AWG to place the onset of the “Anthropocene” in with Lawrence’s “atomic age” is evident, in both 1945 significantly reduces the probability of find- timing and concept. There is also a good chronolog- ing the desired stratotype, which should be sought ical match with the “great acceleration”. Now, the in the slim and fragile sedimentary layer deposit- AWG is looking for the best stratotype and GSSP to ed during the last ~70 years. This turns the idea of fit with the ICS rules, a task that, according to their the “Anthropocene” into a prospect for the future, own words, is expected to be accomplished in 2–3 in the hope that these thin and unconsolidated lay- years. Therefore, we should still wait at least a cou- ers will remain and keep growing until they can ple of years for the “Anthropocene” proposal to be unequivocally be recognized and traced across ready and initiate its way through the complex ICS- the Earth by future geologists. According to the IUGS approval and ratification protocol (Fig. 2). critics, such concept cannot be a stratigraphic target of study as stratigraphy is concerned with the past, rather than the future. Those who criticize THE SCIENTIFIC DEBATE the AWG in this way claim that other options for the “Anthropocene” onset—for example, the “ear- The AWG procedures and the resulting outcomes ly Anthropocene” proposal (Ruddiman, 2013)— have received scientific criticism, mostly from would have provided more room for finding a stratigraphers, especially some members of the ICS suitable stratotype in the already existing rocks. and IUGS executive committees (Finney, 2014; In addition, Finney & Edwards (2015) note that Gibbard & Walker, 2014; Edwards, 2015; Finney this definition of the “Anthropocene” coincides & Edwards, 2015; Walker et al., 2015). This could with the “atomic age” as defined by Lawrence in be viewed as a warning to the AWG about the in- 1946 and, therefore, the term “atomic age” has adequacy of the current definition of the “Anthro- priority, according to the rules of the International pocene” according to the international stratigraph- Stratigraphic Guide (Salvador, 1994; Murphy & ic rules. This call to attention suggests that, in its Salvador, 1999). current status, the proposal could not be approved Choosing 1945 as a starting date has also cre- by the ICS and ratified by the IUGS. The main con- ated internal criticism inside the AWG. This date flicting points are summarized here. received 28 votes of the 35 AWG members who attended the deliberations at Cape Town (Appen- Scientific criticism dix). Four AWG members voted that the onset of the “Anthropocene” should not be necessari- Some critics argue that the procedure followed to ly synchronous worldwide as the manifestations progress in the elaboration of the “Anthropocene” of human presence and impact occur at different

Collectanea Botanica vol. 36 (enero-diciembre 2017), e008, ISSN-L: 0010-0730, http://dx.doi.org/10.3989/collectbot.2017.v36.008 10 V. RULL times, at different regions of Earth (Edgeworth et A hypothetical observer could have been able to al., 2015; Ellis et al., 2016). But this is against the perceive, at a human time scale, a fundamental biostratigraphic rules that require global synchroneity spheric shift from the Cretaceous to the Paleogene to define a stratigraphic unit and its corresponding in spite of their brevity. According to Zalasiewicz et GSSP. However, it expresses the real asynchronous al. (2017), this would be the case for the Holocene nature of the anthropogenic imprint on the strati- and the “Anthropocene” and, therefore, what they graphic record, which is why some believe that the call the “brevity argument” of their critics—i.e. the “Anthropocene” cannot be formalized at all. paucity of the stratigraphic record of the last ~70 It has also been asked why Crutzen, Stoermer years—would lose strength. and the AWG implicitly assumed, since the beginning, that the stratigraphic unit representing the Environmental policy implications global human impact on the Earth System should be an epoch, as is implicit in the suffix “-cene”, Some critics emphasize the existence of extra-sci- rather than an era—as for example the Stoppani’s entific elements in the quest for the “Anthro- “Anthropozoic”—or a period, such as the Pav- pocene” formalization. For example, Finney & lov’s “Anthropogene” (Rull, 2016b). There is no a Edwards (2015) consider that the interest on the clear statement in this sense. Sometimes, the AWG formalization of the “Anthropocene” as a new ge- members mention that the “Anthropocene” could ological epoch obeys to political, rather than sci- have the rank of an era in the planet’s history (e.g. entific reasons and that the ICS should not take Williams et al., 2015) but they never shift from scientific decisions under political pressure. This “Anthropocene” to “Anthropozoic” to refer to it. is not dismissed by the AWG members, many of Recently, AWG members responded to most of whom believe that human impact on Earth should the above critiques, and others, maintaining their be formally recognized if only for the society and core ideas almost intact (Zalasiewicz et al., 2017). the government agencies to be aware of it. This The only point in which they seem to be more cau- has created another misconception in some sec- tious is in the initial date. Despite the 2016 Cape tors, as is the false impression that the critics of Town decision after massive voting, the AWG now the “Anthropocene” are not concerned with cli- declares that placing 1945 as the beginning of the mate change, overpopulation, overexploitation of “Anthropocene” was not a final decision, only a natural resources, contamination or waste accu- suggestion and “. . . a contribution to open discus- mulation. In this atmosphere, an eventual rejection sion about where, and how, the boundary might of the “Anthropocene” proposal by the ICS and be placed” (Zalasiewicz et al., 2017). With this the IUGS, even based strictly on scientific crite- novel assessment, it is no clear whether or not the ria, might be viewed as a manifestation of compli- AWG will maintain the 1945 boundary in their fi- ance with those who wildly exploit and devastate nal proposal. But according to the AWG, the most the planet. In other words, those who support the important point is not the exact placement of the “Anthropocene” as a new geological epoch could boundary but the idea that human modifications on be viewed by society as the “politically correct” Earth System, and their corresponding stratigraphic scholars, whereas those who point out the current imprint will be irreversible, even if anthropogenic stratigraphic weaknesses for such formalization forcing ceases tomorrow. would appear as the unpopular “evil” fellows, not Following this reasoning, Zalasiewicz et al. very different from those who negate the anthro- (2017) introduce an interesting comparison with pogenic climate change. For example, Stanley Fin- the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary, occurred 66 ney, member of the IUGS Executive Committee— million years ago and characterized by the extinc- to which the proposal will be eventually submitted tion of dinosaurs and a major biospheric revolu- for ratification (Fig. 2)—declared to feel “. . . like a tion. Such revolution was the result of an almost lighthouse with a huge tsunami wave coming at it” instantaneous (in geological terms) phenomenon, a in this situation (Voosen, 2016). Another geologist, meteorite impact, which determined the formation who asked not to be named, believes that “There’s of a centimeter-scale iridium anomaly in the sed- a similarity [of “Anthropocene” defenders] to cer- imentary record, separating two different worlds. tain religious groups who are extremely keen on

Collectanea Botanica vol. 36 (enero-diciembre 2017), e008, ISSN-L: 0010-0730, http://dx.doi.org/10.3989/collectbot.2017.v36.008 The “Anthropocene” uncovered 11 their religion—to the extent that they think every- DOES THE “ANTHROPOCENE” HAVE body who doesn’t practise their religion is some A FUTURE? kind of barbarian” (Monastersky, 2015). Finney & Edwards (2015) and other stratigraphers argue that As a bet on the future, it seems reasonable to ana- both the society and the political class, in general, lyze the “Anthropocene” in light of the possible fu- are aware enough of current and potentially future tures that awaits our species, an aspect that is rarely environmental problems and an eventual formali- considered in this context. In their introduction of zation of the “Anthropocene” would not contribut- the term, Crutzen & Stoermer (2000) considered ed to improve the situation. The general impression that the incoming of the “Anthropocene” could is that the eventual formalization of the “Anthropo- only be avoided by a global catastrophe—huge vol- cene” is a scientific issue and should be decoupled canic eruptions, a nuclear war, asteroid impacts, a from environmental policy matters, as the roots of glaciation or a socio-ecological collapse caused by the current Earth’s devastation is an economic and our own stupidity—that eliminates or significantly political, rather than academic, affair. reduces human population. This opens the debate about how long will we living on this planet and Why not simply a historical epoch? influencing its functioning.

It seems clear that we are changing the structure Are we eternal? and the functioning of the Earth System in a way that is likely inaugurating a new cultural phase We can only speculate about our immortality as a of humanity and its relationships with the planet. species but many people seem to take for granted, If so, this new phase is worth to be named using perhaps somewhat thoughtlessly, that our presence a specific term, as it occurs with other historical and influence on the Earth would be permanent, periods. But defining a new geological epoch, as whatever this means. Such perception is behind the AWG pursues, is a totally different venture as many predictions about the future Earth but is obvi- it requires to fitting with the stratigraphic rules ously based on religious and philosophical consid- and procedures explained above. Some have pro- erations on the eternity of human condition. If we posed the use of “Anthropocene” as a historical were eternal, then the “Anthropocene”, or any oth- term without any geological meaning, only to emer unit with the prefix “anthropo-” would be the last phasize the anthropogenic impact on Earth (Ed- unit of the GTS (Rull, 2016a). If so, perhaps this wards, 2015). This is a very frequent choice that unit is worth to be upgraded to a higher stratigraph- has fostered, in part, the spectacular expansion of ic rank, as for example an era, the “Anthropozoic”, the word across many knowledge areas. However, as proposed by Stoppani almost a century and a the termination “-cene” is reserved for the formal half ago. But what if we are perishable as a species? geological epochs of the Cenozoic era and, there- The evolutionary knowledge accumulated to fore, the term “Anthropocene” implicitly refers date shows that there are no eternal species; all of to a geologic epoch and is scientifically incorrect them end up extinct and there is no scientific rea- until eventually formalized. A historical name free son to believe that we should be different. How- from stratigraphic burden should not contain the ever, our extinction must not necessarily be cata- suffixes “-cene”, “-zoic” or “-gene”. As acon- strophic. There are other ways to become extinct sequence, “Anthropocene” or “Anthropozoic” as a species but leaving an evolutionary legacy in are not good choices as purely historical terms. the form of one or more descendant species (Rull, Therefore, until the “Anthropocene” is eventually 2009). Phyletic extinction is the only that ends with formalized, we should either use this term with both the original species and its genetic pool. Cat- brackets or choose another term without strati- astrophic extinction is a particular type of phylet- graphic meaning. If, finally, the “Anthropocene” ic extinction. Other types of extinction are called is not formalized, its use should be avoided, which pseudo-extinctions, as part of the genetic pool of is very unlikely to occur, given the popularity the original species is preserved in one (hybridiza- that this term has acquired in many scientific and tion and anagenesis) or more descendant species non-scientific environments (Edwards, 2015). (cladogenesis) (Fig. 5). No matter the process and

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Figure 5. Four potential extinction types. Original species are depicted in blue and descendant species in red. Horizontal bars indicate the extinction of the original species. Modified from Rull (2009). the consequences, our extinction as a species will planet. In this case, the “Anthropocene” would finish mark the end of the “Anthropocene” or the “An- even with us on board and a new geologic epoch (as- thropozoic” but the Earth and its biosphere will suming that the remaining societies still care about continue its sidereal pilgrimage. The biosphere has stratigraphy) will start. Science-fiction alternatives, been rid of us during almost all its existence; it does as for example the emigration of our species, or a not really need us and will persist after our disap- significant part of it, to another planet or thecon- pearance, whatever the cause of our extinction. Af- struction of an artificial heliosphere in the Solar Sys- ter this extinction, the issue of the “Anthropocene”, tem have also been proposed (Rull, 2009; Cathcart, the GTS and the whole stratigraphic framework, 1983, 2011) but will not be discussed here. as human constructions, will not make sense an- Among the catastrophes mentioned by Crutzen ymore. The only hope for the GTS to keep alive & Stoermer (2000) that can drastically reduce hu- is that our descendant species are still interested in man population, the only predictable, to a certain stratigraphic affairs. degree, using the available scientific background, is the incoming of the next glaciation. Since the be- Is our geological imprint irreversible? ginning of the Quaternary, ~2.6 million years ago, the Earth has experienced more than 40 glaciations The AWG members believe that global changes consisting of an expansion of the polar ice sheets characterizing the onset of the “Anthropocene” are accompanied by the growth and downward exten- irreversible and will permanently affect the strati- sion of mountain glaciers worldwide, caused by graphic record, no matter if our influence on the global intense coolings (Ehlers et al., 2011). Each Earth System ceases or not (Williams et al., 2015; glaciation has been followed by a warmer phase of Zalasiewicz et al., 2017). For the time being, this is ice and glacier retreat known as an interglacial. The a matter of speculation. The question is whether hu- glacial/interglacial alternation follows a periodic man footprint will disappear at some point in time, trend governed by astronomical cycles linked to with or without us on Earth. Crutzen & Stoermer the Earth’s movements around the Sun. The more (2000) consider that a major catastrophe could have recent glaciations have occurred at a 100,000-years such effect. Such a catastrophe could totally erad- period and the length of an interglacial ranged be- icate our species or not. The first case has already tween 10,000 and 30,000 years. The maximum of been discussed. But besides our extinction as a spe- the last glaciation occurred some 20,000 years ago cies, how can our influence of the Earth System and and affected a large part of Europe and North Amer- the corresponding stratigraphic imprint disappear or ica, which were under several kilometers depth ice become negligible? The only possibilities seem to be sheets. At those times, most of Europe was covered a drastic reduction in our global population and/or a by tundra and cold steppes, the forests that cover change in our lifestyle and our relationships with the today most of the continent were “refugiated” in

Collectanea Botanica vol. 36 (enero-diciembre 2017), e008, ISSN-L: 0010-0730, http://dx.doi.org/10.3989/collectbot.2017.v36.008 The “Anthropocene” uncovered 13 patches on the southern peninsulas (Iberia, Italy would make sense only if current glacial-intergla- and Greece). Today’s Mediterranean vegetation cial recurrence is disrupted. This could be due to was still lacking (Elenga et al., 2000; Tarasov et al., an unlikely change in the physical dynamics of the 2000) (Fig. 6). At present, we are in the Holocene Solar System or, more likely, to the eventual dom- interglacial that began 11,700 years ago. inance of anthropogenic over astronomical forc- During the last glaciation, Europe and America ing on Earth’s climate for thousands or millions of were scarcely populated but a similar event today years from now. would radically reduce the population and create Some predictive model outputs suggest that cur- adverse environmental conditions for econom- rent global warming will not stop and the next glaci- ic progress, especially in the more industrialized ation could be postponed indefinitely (Haqq-Misra, countries, which could cause a cultural collapse. 2014; Herrero et al., 2014). In that case, physical ev- Therefore, it seems opportune to ask when will idence for the “Anthropocene” might keep accumu- the next glaciation begin. Models based on the lating for the benefit of future geologists, who would observed Quaternary cyclicity estimate that the be able to properly define this epoch on a sound next glaciation could start in 1500 to 10,000 years geological basis. In the absence of an external cat- and minimum temperatures would be reached by aclysm, the only option to avoid a socio-ecological 60,000 years from now (Tzedakis et al., 2012). collapse seems to be a radical shift in the human– Therefore, if glacial cycles follow the same trends Earth relationships, which is a human responsibility. of the last ~2.6 million years under the same mech- But even if we relax our pressure, the anthropogen- anisms of astronomical forcing, it is possible that ic climate shift will persist for some time. Current current human influence on Earth System experi- models estimate that an eventual total cessation of ences a drastic decline in the next 60,000 years. In greenhouse gas emissions will not stop the global this case, the “Anthropocene” would have been a warming, which would persist for decades or cen- phase of some ten thousand years duration within turies until an eventual stabilization (Matthews & the current Holocene interglacial, and the definition Caldeira, 2008). of a new geological epoch would not be necessary A hypothetical return to pre-industrial condi- (Rull, 2013a). In other words, the “Anthropocene” tions is unpredictable but if it takes a similar time

Figure 6. General aspect of Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum. Modi- fied from (Rull, in press).

Collectanea Botanica vol. 36 (enero-diciembre 2017), e008, ISSN-L: 0010-0730, http://dx.doi.org/10.3989/collectbot.2017.v36.008 14 V. RULL lapse to be effective, the definition of a new geo- REFERENCES logic epoch like the “Anthropocene” or a new era like the “Anthropozoic” could be unnecessary. An Autin, W. J. 2016. Multiple dichotomies of the Anthropo- cene. The Anthropocene Review 3: 218–230. http://dx.doi. eventual change in the way we impact the Earth org/10.1177/2053019616646133 System could be the result of either a change of Barnosky, A. D. 2014. Palaeontological evidence for defining mindset leading to a redefinition of our lifestyle the Anthropocene. In: Waters, C. N., Zalasiewicz, J. A., or a cultural evolution to a human condition more Williams, M., Ellis, M. & Snelling, A. M. (Eds.), A stratigraphical basis for the Anthropocene (Geological Society integrated in the global ecological functioning and Special Publication, 395). 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Appendix. Press release of the University of of the Holocene) or a higher rank such as a Pe- Leicester on the Meeting of the Anthropocene riod or Era. In such a step, and in common with Working Group held at Cape Town, South Africa, all other geological time units, the Anthropocene during the 35th International Geological Congress would comprise both a “pure time” unit (an An- (http://www2.le.ac.uk/offices/press/press-releases/2016/ thropocene Epoch) and an equivalent unit of stra- august/media-note-anthropocene-working-group-awg). ta (an Anthropocene Series). • If the Anthropocene is adopted as an Epoch, this Media note: Anthropocene Working Group would mean that the Holocene has terminated, (AWG) but that we remain within the Quaternary Period and Cenozoic Era. Posted at Aug 29, 2016 01:11 PM • Human impact has left discernible traces on the stratigraphic record for thousands of years—in- The Working Group on the “Anthropocene” (AWG), deed, since before the beginning of the Holocene. which includes University of Leicester geologists, However, substantial and approximately globally will provide its summary of evidence and its pro- synchronous changes to the Earth System most visional recommendations on a potential new ge- clearly intensified in the “Great Acceleration” of ological time interval at the 35th International the mid-20th century. The mid-20th century also Geological Congress in South Africa between 27 coincides with the clearest and most distinctive August–4 September array of signals imprinted upon recently deposited strata. Please see the below notice for more information: • Hence, the mid-20th century represents the optimal beginning of a potential Anthropocene Ep- This international scientific body (that includes och (and, simultaneously, the base of the Anthro- the University of Leicester geologists Jan Zalasie- pocene Series). wicz, Mark Williams and honorary chair, the Brit- • Changes to the Earth System that characterize the ish Geological Survey geologist Colin Waters, and potential Anthropocene Epoch include marked archaeologist Matt Edgeworth), has been active acceleration to rates of erosion and sedimenta- since 2009, analysing the case for formalization tion, large-scale chemical perturbations to the of the Anthropocene, a potential new epoch of ge- cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and other ological time dominated by human impact on the elements, the inception of significant change to Earth. The AWG is about to present its prelimi- global climate and sea level, and biotic changes nary findings and recommendations at the Interna- such as unprecedented levels of species invasions tional Geological Congress in Cape Town, at the across the Earth. Many of these changes are ge- same time indicating the range of voting opinion ologically long-lasting, and some are effectively within the group on the major questions surround- irreversible. ing the Anthropocene. It will also map out a route • These and related processes have left an array towards a formal proposal on formalization, and of signals in recent strata, including plastic, al- indicate work that still needs be done to effect this. uminium and concrete particles, artificial radio- Majority current opinion on the group indicates nuclides, changes to carbon and nitrogen isotope the following: patterns, fly ash particles, and a variety offos- silizable biological remains. Many of these sig- • The Anthropocene concept, as articulated by Paul nals will leave a permanent record in the Earth’s Crutzen and Eugene Stoermer in 2000, is geo- strata. logically real. The phenomenon is of sufficient • The Anthropocene beginning might conceivably scale to be considered as part of the Internation- be defined by a Global Standard Stratigraphic al Chronostratigraphic Chart, more commonly Age (GSSA), i.e. a numerical age that can be known as the Geological Time Scale. expressed as a calendar date such as 1945. Or • Majority AWG opinion is for assignation as an more, conventionally it could be defined by a Epoch/Series. This option is preferred over either Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point a lower rank (e.g. Age/Stage, i.e. as a subdivision (GSSP), which is more colloquially a “golden

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spike”, and is a physical reference point in strata • If all of these conditions can be fulfilled, then the at one carefully selected place. Majority opinion Anthropocene would become a formal part of the on the AWG is to seek and choose a candidate Geological Time Scale. GSSP, as this is the most familiar and widely accepted method of defining geological time units. Results of AWG Vote (35 members): • The AWG has already begun the process of identification of potential GSSPs, by initial analysis 1. Is the Anthropocene stratigraphically real? of the general environments in which the best For: 34, Against: 0, Abstain: 1 combinations of stratigraphic signals may be 2. Should the Anthropocene be formalised? For: found (e.g. undisturbed lake or marine sediments, 30, Against: 3, Abstain: 2 annually banded coral skeletons, polar snow/ice 3. Hierarchical level of the Anthropocene? Era: 2, layers, speleothems and so on). Period: 1.5, Epoch: 20.5, Sub-epoch: 1, Age: 2, • This will lead to selection of sites for sampling and Sub-age: 0, None: 1, Uncertain: 3, Abstain: 4 further analysis, to provide full descriptions of rel- 4. Base/beginning of the Anthropocene? ~7ka: 0, evant signals in the strata, a process that we hope ~3ka: 1.3, 1610 Orbis: 0, ~1800: 0, ~1950: 28.3, will lead to the identification of one or more suita- ~1964: 1.3, Diachronous: 4, Uncertain: 0, Ab- ble candidate sites for a GSSP. We would hope to stain: 0 complete this process over the next 2–3 years. 5. GSSA .v. GSSP? GSSP: 25.5, GSSA: 1.5, Un- • This would then form the basis for the prepa- certain: 8 ration of a formal proposal, to our immediate 6. What is the Primary Signal? aluminium: 0, plas- parent body, the Subcommission on Quaternary tic: 3, fuel ash particles: 2, carbon dioxide con- Stratigraphy (SQS), on defining a formal Anthro- centration: 3, methane concentration: 0, carbon pocene unit. If the SQS recommends this by su- isotope change: 2, oxygen isotope change: 0, permajority vote, the proposal will go on to its radiocarbon bomb spike: 4, Plutonium fall- parent body, the International Commission on out: 10, Nitrate concentration / nitrogen isotope Stratigraphy (ICS) to be voted on, with any vote change: 0, Biostratigraphic: extinction/ assem- in favour still needing to be ratified by the Ex- blage change: 0, Other (lead, persistent organic ecutive Committee of the International Union of pollutants, technofossils): 3, Uncertain: 2, Ab- Geological Sciences (IUGS). stain: 6.

Collectanea Botanica vol. 36 (enero-diciembre 2017), e008, ISSN-L: 0010-0730, http://dx.doi.org/10.3989/collectbot.2017.v36.008