SCIENCE & SOCIETY INSIGHTS Valentí Rull INDEX 2009 Beyond us. EMBO Reports, 10: 1191-1195. 2010 The candid approach. EMBO Reports, 11: 14-17. Who needs a greener revolution? EMBO Reports, 11: 659-663. Food security: green revolution drawbacks. Science, 328: 169. El mito del desarrollo sostenible (The myth of sustainable development). Collectanea Botanica, 29: 103-109. English translation included. 2011 Sustainability, capitalism and evolution. EMBO Reports, 12: 103-106. Research efficiency in relation to investment. Collectanea Botanica, 30: 107-108. 2012 Time, evolution and physical reductionism. EMBO Reports, 13: 181-185. Towards a scientific force: some insights and a manifesto. Collectanea Botanica, 31: 121-125. 2013 Are we willing to build a better future? Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 28: 443- 444. La ciencia, esa extranjera (Science in Spain: a historical debt). Collectanea Botanica, 32: 121-125. English translation included. 2014 Conservation, human values and democracy. EMBO Reports, 15: 17-20. The most important application of science. EMBO Reports, 15: 919-922. The social utility of science. Collectanea Botanica, 33: 85-90. 2016 Free science under threat. EMBO Reports, 17: 131-135. 2017 The ‘Anthropocene’: neglects, misconceptions and possible futures. EMBO Reports, 18: 1056-1060. The ‘Anthropocene’ uncovered. Collectanea Botanica, doi: 10.3989/collectbot.2017.v36.008 viewpointviewpoint Beyond us Is a world without humans possible? Valentí Rull he potential annihilation of the human author Stephen Baxter’s novel Evolution humankind from Earth. The purpose of this race is a topic that is often relegated (2002), de-evolving into increasingly primi- essay is therefore to approach the topic ration- Tto science fiction. Authors and film- tive species. Recently, however, the idea of a ally; in part because informed opinions need makers seem sometimes gleefully inventive world devoid of humans after a global catas- to be heard in modern societies, and scien- when it comes to eradicating human civili- trophe has also been considered, with more tists should take on this role to avoid the pro- zation: deadly viruses in Terry Gilliam’s or less detailed accounts on the potential liferation of pseudo-scientific ‘truths’. The Twelve Monkeys (1995); nefarious aliens in ecological recovery of the biosphere following is a personal view, its only aim H.G. Wells’s War of the Worlds (1898); sci- (Holmes, 2006; Weisman, 2007). being to stimulate a scientific debate. entific experiments gone wrong in Kurt None of the above—nor any other fic- Vonnegut’s Cat’s Cradle (1963); the degener- tional accounts of how humanity might come few decades ago, predictions of ation of oil-addicted civilization in George to an end—has been taken seriously, in part future scenarios, cataclysmic or Miller’s Mad Max (1979); or a massive envi- because of an apparent lack of sound science A other wise, were considered unsci- ronmental catastrophe in Roland Emmerich’s underpinning such scenarios (Kilker, 2008; entific because they were speculative and The Day After Tomorrow (2004). The theme Pimm, 2008). Yet, the possible extinction of not testable by scientific methods. Today, that runs throughout all of these is that human- Homo sapiens should not remain the purview science has learned to incorporate the ity, brave and indomitable, struggles onwards of fiction authors; indeed, one could think of future as a common time frame for predic- after the cataclysm; sometimes improving potentially realistic scenarios that one way or tive modelling, driven in part by uncer- or sometimes, as in British science fiction another might lead to the disappearance of tainty about the potential consequences of global climate change and the future developments and applications of genetic engineering. More generally, modern sci- ence increasingly uses modelling to gen- erate workable hypotheses—which are ideally calibrated and validated against historical records—that can be tested by using current data and experimental investigations. One of the best examples is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which guides actions in light of the potential consequences of global climate change (Solomon et al, 2007). Similarly, the future of the Earth’s biosphere can now be addressed from a scientific per- spective, as predictions about it are able to fulfil the main requirements of modern sci- ence: namely, the availability of falsifiable hypotheses and the methods to test them (Popper, 1959). …the possible extinction of Homo sapiens should not remain Based on the pictorial message engraved Pioneer plaques. Original plaques designed by L. Salzman Sagan. the purview of fiction authors… ©2009 EUROPEAN MOLECULAR BIOLOGY ORGANIZATION EMBO reports VOL 10 | NO 11 | 2009 1191 science & society viewpoint When we think about the future, we usu- he same factors and activities that Further increases in human ally imagine that humans—whom we envis- increase human fitness and persist- fitness and health might, age will look like us—will live in a world Tence are often considered potentially therefore, accelerate the that is more or less different from our own, fatal—on a global level—by catastrophists. depending on the timescale involved. If we They point out that the environmental effects deterioration of biodiversity and contemplate a world without humans, we of our success—pollution, ecological col- the Earth’s carrying capacity usually assume that our demise has resulted lapse and climate change, among others— from a global catastrophe. In other words, might ultimately limit human population unless something very bad happens, we growth. Similarly, the successes of increased the future, we will be able to direct our own imagine that the future should include longevity and reduced morbidity could biological evolution by means of sophisti- humans. However, there is little scientific result in overpopulation, leading to starva- cated technological developments such as support for such a view. In fact, our planet tion, poverty, disease, the exhaustion of nat- nanotechnology, psychopharmacology or has been devoid of humans for almost its ural resources, or war. Further increases in genetic engineering (Hughes, 2008). Others entire existence: Homo sapiens evolved human fitness and health might, therefore, have gone so far as to predict that we will be around 200,000 years ago, which is a mere accelerate the deterioration of biodiversity able to create artificial, synthetic and virtual blink of the eye in terms of the Earth’s own and the Earth’s carrying capacity. This is one organisms (Pearson, 2008), which might 3.5 billion year history (Schopf, 1999; of the reasons—in addition to simple curi- contribute to the problems of overpopula- Tattersall & Schwartz, 2009). osity and the human drive to explore the tion, environmental degradation and the unknown—for space exploration. The hope general collapse of human civilization. If we contemplate a world without is that it might one day be possible to relieve an overpopulated Earth by colonizing other essimistic predictions of an apoca- humans, we usually assume that planets such as Mars (Heppener, 2008). At lyptic end to humanity are not only our demise has resulted from a present, however, insufficient technology Pthe stuff of biblical or science fiction, global catastrophe and economic impediments remain the but are also the central tenet of many futur- main constraints on developing a substan- ist propositions. In the past, it was almost tial space programme. Of course, even if we always imagined that an apocalyptic war Therefore, the question is very real: will were successful in colonizing other planets, would instigate the end of humankind; now- humankind persist or not? There is no this would not immediately solve our cli- adays, some view environmental deteriora- a priori reason to believe that humans will mate and environmental issues, or the way tion and the exhaustion of natural resources fare any better than any of the other spe- in which we exploit resources; it would only as equally terrible menaces, and the present cies in the fossil record that have come and transfer these problems. mercantilist economic system, sustainable gone throughout Earth’s history. From a or not, seems to support these concerns. strictly biological point of view, humans There is no a priori reason to Of course, these dire predictions are are just one ephemeral animal among nothing new. Early futurists, including the many in the history of the biosphere. In believe that humans will fare British biologist J.B.S. Haldane (1892–1964), fact, the conscious or sub-conscious feel- any better than any of the other put their hope in the use of scientific progress ing that we are intrinsically special is species in the fossil record that “for the better” by appealing to human nature founded in the Judaeo-Christian tradition, have come and gone throughout (Haldane, 1927). This so-called techno- although evolutionary theory has already Earth’s history optimistic vision supposed that we could subdued this view to some extent prevent future collapse through scientific (Stoneking, 2008). Nevertheless, humans endeavour. The opposing techno-pessimistic are genuinely biologically and socially dif- Another concern about the future of view held by other scholars of the time, such ferent to other animals. For example, our humans is how evolution might yet change as Bertrand Russell (1872–1970), argued particular socio-cultural evolution has us, if at all. The current debate about the that because science and technology always made us the most successful invading spe- future evolution of humankind has focused benefit the dominant classes, they are insuf- cies, able to transform the environment to on the relative impact of cultural compared ficient to save the world from ruin (Russell, thwart competition from other species and with biological evolution. Since the inven- 1924). The modern equivalent of the techno- to settle in even the most remote areas of tion of agriculture about 12,000 years ago, optimistic view is the idea that technological the planet.