UNIVERSITÀ POLITECNICA DELLE MARCHE FACOLTÀ DI ECONOMIA “GIORGIO FUÀ” Phd in Economics XXXI Cycle

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UNIVERSITÀ POLITECNICA DELLE MARCHE FACOLTÀ DI ECONOMIA “GIORGIO FUÀ” Phd in Economics XXXI Cycle UNIVERSITÀ POLITECNICA DELLE MARCHE FACOLTÀ DI ECONOMIA “GIORGIO FUÀ” PhD in Economics XXXI cycle PhD Dissertation STRUCTURAL CHANGE, TECHNOLOGY AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION PhD candidate Andrea Coveri Supervisor: PhD Coordinator: Prof. Alberto Russo Prof. Riccardo Lucchetti Prof. Mario Pianta Table of Contents Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………….………….… 7 Chapter 1. Structural Change: Theory and Data 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 13 2. Investigating structural change: a review ..................................................................................................... 14 2.1 The foundations ...................................................................................................................................... 14 2.2 The Neoclassical approach ..................................................................................................................... 16 2.3 The Post-Keynesian approach ................................................................................................................ 17 2.4 The Neo-Schumpeterian approach ......................................................................................................... 23 3. Combining structural change and evolutionary perspectives ....................................................................... 25 4. Data: the Sectoral Innovation Database ........................................................................................................ 29 4.1. The SID ................................................................................................................................................. 29 4.2 Data for structural analysis: the variables ............................................................................................... 29 4.3 The time structure of the database .......................................................................................................... 31 Chapter 2. The Determinants of Structural Change: Demand, Technology and Offshoring 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 35 1.1 Manufacturing vs. Service industries ..................................................................................................... 35 1.2 High-tech vs. Low-tech industries .......................................................................................................... 36 1.3 Core vs. Peripheral countries .................................................................................................................. 36 1.4 Upswing vs. Downswing of business cycle ............................................................................................ 37 2. Data and descriptive evidence ...................................................................................................................... 39 2.1 The economic performance of countries ................................................................................................ 40 2.2 The sectoral composition of the economies............................................................................................ 42 2.3 Innovation patterns and productive specialization ................................................................................. 46 2.4 Innovation and economic growth ........................................................................................................... 50 2.5 Demand and economic growth ............................................................................................................... 53 2.6 The offshoring dynamics ........................................................................................................................ 55 2.7 Offshoring and economic growth ........................................................................................................... 58 3. The model ..................................................................................................................................................... 61 3.1 The structural change equation ............................................................................................................... 61 3.2 Econometric strategy .............................................................................................................................. 62 3 4. Results .......................................................................................................................................................... 63 5. Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................. 76 Appendix of Chapter 2 ..................................................................................................................................... 79 Chapter 3. Structural Dynamics of Income Distribution: Technology, Wages and Profits 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 85 2. State of the art and proposed approach ..................................................................................................... 86 2.1 Labour productivity ................................................................................................................................ 89 2.2 Innovation ............................................................................................................................................... 90 2.3 Offshoring............................................................................................................................................... 91 2.4 Union density .......................................................................................................................................... 93 3. The database ............................................................................................................................................. 94 4. Descriptive evidence on income distribution dynamics ........................................................................... 96 4.1 The role of technology ............................................................................................................................ 97 4.1.1 Technology and income distribution patterns .................................................................................. 98 4.1.2 Technology and profits .................................................................................................................... 99 4.1.3 Technology and wages .................................................................................................................. 102 4.2 The role of offshoring ........................................................................................................................... 104 4.3 The role of trade unions ........................................................................................................................ 108 5. A simultaneous model for the dynamics of profits and wages ............................................................... 110 5.1 The wage equation ................................................................................................................................ 110 5.2 The profit equation ............................................................................................................................... 111 5.3 Econometric strategy ............................................................................................................................ 112 6. Results .................................................................................................................................................... 114 6.1 The estimated wage equation ............................................................................................................... 114 6.2 The estimated profit equation ............................................................................................................... 115 6.3 The wage-profit SURE model .............................................................................................................. 116 6.4 Further evidence using a different product innovation proxy .............................................................. 120 6.4.1 Results of the equation-by-equation estimation strategy ............................................................... 120 6.4.2 Results of the wage-profit SURE model ....................................................................................... 121 7. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................ 125 Appendix of Chapter 3 ................................................................................................................................... 127 A.1 The wage equation: robustness checks ................................................................................................ 127 A.2 The profit equation: robustness checks ................................................................................................ 131 4 Chapter 4. A Sequential Model of Income Distribution 1. Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................
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