14

Former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, campaigns with Liberal Leader . Chrétien was the leader of the last Liberal dynasty. Will Trudeau be the next one? Photo by Adam Scotti Then and Now: Liberal to Conservative Dominance? Thomas S. Axworthy and Rana Shamoon

Has effectively ended the historic reign n 2015, Stephen Harper could win of the as the “Natural Gov- his fourth straight election, a feat I no Conservative has achieved since erning Party”? With Justin Trudeau presenting the first Sir John A. Macdonald. To be eligible for credible threat to Harper’s evident mastery of Canadian selection to the same electoral pantheon as the legendary Sir John A. is an indica- politics since 2011, the 2015 election may be histori- tion of how much Harper has mastered cally important for providing an answer to that ques- Canadian politics since becoming prime tion. Will it mark the death of a “tough old bird”, or minister in 2006. The 2015 election will be important, like every electoral con- “Some chicken, some neck”? test in deciding who forms government. But beyond the horse-race perspective is a larger historical question: will 2015 confirm that the Conservatives have, in the early 21st century, established a new dynasty replacing the once dominant 20th -century Liberal party coalition?

Policy 15 V.O, Key Jr., the great Harvard po- If the Liberals have fallen spectacularly, the Conservatives litical scientist, published in 1955, of Stephen Harper have built incrementally. The Harper A Theory of Critical Elections, which breakthrough is not due to an eruption like the Jack Layton’s called attention to the fact that not “orange crush” in 2011, or charismatic appeal like Pierre all elections are the same: occasion- Trudeau in 1968. ally, there are electoral realignments “in which the decisive results of the voting reveal a sharp alteration of the pre-existing cleavage within the pened only once before in Canadian lics, immigrants (especially visible electorate.” If the realignment is con- history) but fall to third place behind minorities) and women. In 1980, firmed in subsequent elections, and the NDP, a calamity that had never with as leader, for endures overtime, then there has happened before. From first to third example, the Liberal Party took 68 been a “critical election” leading to a in a decade takes some doing. per cent of the vote in and fundamental shift. If the Liberals have fallen spectacu- 74 of 75 seats. In 2000, under Jean Key’s criteria apply to the 1896 Ca- larly, the Conservatives of Stephen Chrétien, despite the rise of the Bloc nadian federal election, for example, Harper have built incrementally. The Québécois, the Liberals still had 44 as , the francophone Harper breakthrough is not due to an per cent of the vote and 36 seats in leader of the Liberal Party, won 49 eruption like the Jack Layton’s “or- Quebec. In 2000, more than half of seats in Quebec to the Conservative ange crush” in 2011, or charismatic Catholic voters supported the Liber- Party’s 16, making Quebec the bed- appeal like Pierre Trudeau in 1968. al Party, as did 80 per cent of visible rock of the Liberal Party for the next Instead, carefully and methodically, minorities and 46 per cent of Cana- hundred years. In their book, Dynas- Harper united the right-leaning par- dian women (compared to 24 per ties and Interludes, Lawrence LeDuc ties, therefore consolidating his base. cent for the ). and his co-authors write that the Then he worked to make the Conser- Laurier dynasty was established in vatives the preferred party on eco- 40 per cent of voters 1896, tested in the election of 1900, nomic issues, a competence of most identified with the Liberal then confirmed in the elections of concern to Canadian voters, while Party in 2000. This meant 1904 and 1908. The authors posit reducing fears that he has a radical that the Liberals could win that there are three keys to establish- right-wing agenda on social issues. by turning out enough ing a political dynasty: to be well po- Governments traditionally defeat voters from their core while sitioned on the key economic ques- themselves, but Harper has added at least breaking even with tions, to ensure confidence on issues two percent to his vote total and 20 independent or swing voters. of national unity, and expanding or seats in each election since becoming sustaining the . prime minister. The Conservatives Known as the Natural Governing had 29.6 per cent of the vote and 99 Party of the 20th Century, the Liberal seats in 2004 and this grew to 39.6 Party was adept at positioning itself per cent of the vote and 166 seats in In addition to keeping the traditional on these three key requirements. In 2011. Like a batter who steadily in- Liberal coalition intact, the Chrétien- the 2000 election, Jean Chrétien won creases his average month by month, Martin partnership strengthened Lib- his third majority government in a year by year, no matter who is pitch- eral appeal in the crucial area of the row, and the Liberal dynasty seemed ing, Stephen Harper has become a economy. Elections from the 1960s well placed to go on and on. But as political all-star. to the 1990s more typically had the the ancient Greeks wrote, “Those Liberals trying to make unity and just However, Harper never faced Jean whom the gods wish to destroy they society concerns the dominant is- Chrétien in an election: Chrétien has first make mad.” Through hubris, sues, while Conservatives spotlighted the Liberals embraced the madness all-star credentials too, and compar- the economy. By eradicating the defi- of civil war, and in doing so, they ing his last majority in 2000 with cit, creating jobs and reducing taxes, destroyed a coalition that had taken Harper’s first in 2011 demonstrates however, the Chrétien government them a century to build. what has happened between then gained legitimacy in economic man- and now. agement. In the 2000 election, the t is instructive to compare the The last Liberal dynasty of Chrétien Liberals were slightly ahead of the Al- electoral pillars of the “Big Red and his partner—then rival—Paul liance on which party was closest to I Machine” in 2000, the last year Martin had many of the same pil- voter opinions on the deficit (a tradi- of a Liberal majority, with the results lars of support as past eras of Liberal tional strength of the Reform Party). of the 2011 election, which saw the success. The Liberal Party became While neutralizing this issue on the Liberal Party not only lose for the the governing party because of great right, the Chrétien Liberals also en- third time in a row (that had hap- support from francophones, Catho- joyed the support of 43 per cent of

January/February 2015 16 union households, far above the NDP The budget deficit has at last been eradicated, and tax cuts at 30 per cent. and credits, the tried and true elements of a Conservative For all these reasons, the Chrétien platform, are on the way. Once again, the Conservatives Liberals enjoyed the support of the will campaign as the party of economic management and largest core of partisans: 40 per cent stability. of voters identified with the Liberal Party in 2000. This meant that the Liberals could win by turning out enough voters from their core while en supported the Liberals, and the at last been eradicated, and tax cuts at least breaking even with indepen- Party lost over 850,000 votes from and credits, the tried and true ele- dent or swing voters. In fact, they did the election of 2008. In 2011, only ments of a Conservative platform, are better than that, winning 40 percent 20 per cent of respondents in a pre- on the way. Once again, the Conser- of independent voters in 2000 com- election survey identified themselves vatives will campaign as the party of pared to 30 per cent for the Alliance. as Liberals, a drop of 50 per cent since economic management and stability. the days of Jean Chrétien. Now, the The most sincere compliment is to once described the Conservatives have the largest base emulate and the Harper Conserva- Liberal Party as a “tough old bird”. of partisans at 30 per cent, still below tives soon became masters of the In 2004, Stephen Harper ruffled its the Liberal high, but loyal, durable Chrétien strategy by turning out feathers and then in the elections of and active. the base, encouraging the splits in 2006, 2008, and 2011, he plucked the opposition and gaining enough the old bird clean. In 2015, he hopes swing votes to replace the Liberals as In Justin Trudeau, the Liberals have a leader with he can finally wring its neck. Then Canada’s dominant party. again, as Winston Churchill famous- the most identifiable name ly said in the Canadian House of arper’s step-by-step demoli- in Canadian politics and Commons in 1941: “Some chicken, tion of Liberal dominance even his severest critics will some neck!” H began with his successful ef- acknowledge that Trudeau is fort to unite the right through the a tremendous retail politician Figures cited are largely taken from The Canadian Election Study, the flagship merger of the Alliance and PC parties. with a sunny personality. project of Canadian social science, which No longer would Liberals enjoy the has surveyed voters in every Federal election split between conservative-inclined since 1965. voters. To the traditional Conserva- tive base of the West (in 2011, Harper Thomas S. Axworthy is a Senior won 67 per cent of the vote and 27 As we approach the 2015 election, Distinguished Fellow at the Munk out of 28 seats in ), Harper there is no obvious crack in the Con- School of Global Affairs and a Senior added . By courting the eth- servative base, but Harper cannot Fellow at Massey College. He was nic vote, a constituent group identi- afford too many errors. The Con- principal secretary to Prime Minister fied by the Party as ideologically simi- servatives have been very efficient Pierre Trudeau from 1981-84. lar to the Conservative base, Harper in turning out the base, but it is a Rana Shamoon previously worked for offset losses in Quebec. The Conser- smaller base than the Liberals used to several Conservative cabinet ministers vatives swept Ontario, where 28.5 per enjoy. In Justin Trudeau, the Liberals in the Harper Government and is cent of the population was foreign- have a leader with the most identifi- actively involved in preparations for the born, taking two-thirds of the seats able name in Canadian politics and 2015 election. in 2011, including 30 seats in the even his severest critics will acknowl- GTA, the former Liberal fortress. The edge that Trudeau is a tremendous Conservative ballot question on the retail politician with a sunny person- economy registered as voters thought ality. Current surveys place the Lib- Stephen Harper was the best leader erals tied or even slightly ahead of on the economy compared to 11 per the Conservatives, a large jump from cent for . The West- third place in 2011. Ontario base is now as central to Ste- But Stephen Harper has a few things phen Harper’s success as the Quebec- going for him too. Redistribution Ontario axis was to the Liberal Party will increase the number of House in its glory days. of Commons seats by 30, 27 of them The Chrétien era Liberal coalition in the West-Ontario Conservative fell apart in 2011: only 15 per cent stronghold, with 15 new seats in On- of Catholics, 20 per cent of visible tario and six each in Alberta and Brit- minorities and 20 per cent of wom- ish Columbia. The budget deficit has

Policy