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And Aburizal Bakrie Article No. 5360 Available on www.roymorgan.com Measuring Public Opinion for over 70 Years Monday, 6 January 2014 Jokowi (41%, naik 4 poin) makin unggul sebagai calon presiden, di atas Prabowo Subianto (15%, tidak berubah) dan Aburizal Bakrie (13%, turun 1 poin) Gubernur Jakarta, Joko Widodo – lebih dikenal sebagai Jokowi – adalah calon yang paling dipilih oleh 41% masyarakat Indonesia untuk menggantikan Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) sebagai Presiden Indonesia pada pemilu Juli 2014. Tampak jelas bahwa Jokowi calon yang paling disukai, jauh melebihi Prabowo Subianto (15%, tidak berubah) dan Aburizal Bakrie (13%, turun 1 poin). Ketiganya jauh di atas Jusuf Kalla (6%, naik 1 poin), mantan Presiden Megawati Sukarnoputri (5%, turun 1 poin) dan Dahlan Iskan (5%, turun 1 poin). Sedangkan mereka bertiga sedikit di atas Mahfud MD (2%, turun 1 poin) dan Hatta Rajasa (2%, tidak berubah). Sementara 11% (turun 1 poin) mendukung calon- calon lain – yang mana di antara mereka tidak ada yang mendapatkan dukungan lebih dari 1%. Dan 8% E lagi yang belum dapat menyebutkan siapa pilihan mereka. E Pemilu untuk DPR Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDI-P) – partainya Jokowi dan juga partai dari mantan Presiden Megawati Sukarnoputri – memperkuat kedudukan dan kini didukung oleh 29% masyarakat (naik 5 poin dalam satu bulan) untuk pemiilu DPR, yang dijadwalkan akan diadakan pada bulan April 2014. PDI-P jauh lebih unggul dari partai Golkar (21%, tidak berubah) dan Partai Demokrat (14%, turun 1 poin) – partai dari presiden SBY. Diikuti oleh Partai Gerindra (12%, tidak berubah) – partai dari Prabowo Subianto, salah satu dari kandidat terkemuka. Dukungan untuk partai lain terbagi di antara berbagai partai –PAN (5%, tidak berubah), PKB (5%, turun 2 poin), PKS (5%, tidak berubah), Partai Hanura (5%, tidak berubah), PPP (2%, tidak berubah), dan Partai NasDem (2%, tidak berubah), dan 14% belum dapat menyatakan pilihannya. Debnath Guharoy menyatakan: "Fenomena Jokowi terus naik. Dan kini sudah sampai pada tingkat yang belum pernah dialami dalam demokrasi dengan multi-partai dimana pun. Jokowi menarik partainya naik, sejalan dengan naiknya popularitas pribadinya di seluruh Indonesia. Sebaliknya, kekuatan dari Ketua Umum Megawati Sukarnoputri menurun. Dari kedua orang kuat PDI-P tersebut, pilihan dari pemilih sudah tampak jelas. “Waktu sudah makin sempit bagi seorang penantang baru untuk muncul. Perlu waktu untuk membangun sebuah merek, sementara kini tinggal beberapa bulan saja sebelum pemilu FOR IMMEDIATE RELEAS ronde pertama." FOR IMMEDIATE RELEAS Calon pemilih ditanya: “Bila saat ini ada pemilihan umum untuk anggota DPR, kandidat partai apakah yang akan Anda pilih?” dan untuk poll presiden “Siapa yang paling mungkin Anda pilih sebagai Presiden dalam Pemilu mendatang?” Hasil temuan No. 5360 – Morgan Poll mengenai pemilihan Presiden dan DPR ini telah dilakukan pada bulan Nopember 2013 dengan 2,960 calon pemilih di seluruh Indonesia umur 17 tahun ke atas. Wawancara tatap-muka dilakukan di ke- 33 propinsi di Indonesia dengan pengambilan sample yang seimbang yang mewakili pemilih secara geografis maupun demografis. 8% dari pemilih tidak dapat menyatakan siapa yang mereka dukung dalam pemilu presiden dan 14% tidak dapat menyatakan partai mana yang akan didukung untuk pemilu di DPR. Untuk keterangan lebih lanjut: Contact Office Mobile Debnath Guharoy: +6221 5297 1562 +62 812 105 2622 Ira Soekirman: +6221 5297 1562 +62 811 165 400 PT Roy Morgan Research. Menara Jamsostek, North Tower 11th fl., Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto no. 38 Jakarta 12710 Tel: (021) 5297 1562 Fax: (021) 5297 1563 Website: www.roymorgan.com Offices also in: Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Canberra, London, Auckland and USA Hasil Polling untuk Kandidat Presiden Indonesia – Nopember 2013 Pemilihan Kandidat Presiden Kandidat Presiden Oktober 2013 Nopember 2013 % % Jokowi (Joko Widodo) 37 41 Prabowo Subianto 15 15 Aburizal Bakrie 14 13 Jusuf Kalla 5 6 Dahlan Iskan 6 5 Megawati Sukarnoputri 6 5 Mahfud MD 3 2 Hatta Rajasa 2 2 Other* 12 11 E TOTAL 100 100 *Kandidat lain yang ditanyakan – Ani Yudhoyono, Surya Paloh, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, Djoko Suyanto, Pramono Edhie Wibowo, Gita Wirjawan, Sutiyoso dan Sri Mulyani Indrawati mendapat kurang dari 2% pilihan.. Hasil Polling untuk Partai Politik di DPR – Nopember 2013 Pemlilihan Partai Partai Politik Oktober 2013 Nopember 2013 % % PDIP 24 29 Partai Golkar 21 21 Partai Demokrat 15 14 Partai Gerindra 13 12 PAN 5 5 PKB 7 5 PKS 5 5 Partai Hanura 5 5 PPP 2 2 Partai NasDem 2 2 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEAS PBB 1 0 TOTAL 100 100 Margin of Error The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. Percentage Estimate Sample Size 40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95% 1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4 2,000 ±2.2 ±1.9 ±1.3 ±1.0 3,000 ±1.8 ±1.6 ±1.1 ±0.8 PT Roy Morgan Research. Menara Jamsostek, North Tower 11th fl., Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto no. 38 Jakarta 12710 Tel: (021) 5297 1562 Fax: (021) 5297 1563 Website: www.roymorgan.com Offices also in: Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Canberra, London, Auckland and USA Jokowi (41%, up 4%) strengthens lead for Presidency over challengers Prabowo Subianto (15%, unchanged) and Aburizal Bakrie (13%, down 1%) Governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo – better known as Jokowi – is now the preferred candidate of 41% (up 4% in a month) of Indonesians to succeed Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) as the next President of Indonesia at next July’s Indonesian Presidential Elections. Jokowi is clearly favoured ahead of Prabowo Subianto (15%, unchanged) and Aburizal Bakrie (13%, down 1%). All three are well ahead of Jusuf Kalla (6%, up 1%), former President Megawati Sukarnoputri (5%, down 1%) and Dahlan Iskan (5%, down 1%) who are themselves just ahead of Mahfud MD (2%, down 1%) and Hatta Rajasa (2%, unchanged). A further 11% (down 1%) of Indonesians support other candidates – none of whom have more than 1% support and a further 8% can’t say who they support. Parliamentary Elections The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) – the party of Jokowi, and also former President Megawati Sukarnoputri has strengthened its lead and is now supported by 29% (up 5% in a month) of E Indonesians for the Parliamentary Elections scheduled for April 2014. This is clearly ahead of former ruling party Golkar (21%, unchanged) and Partai Demokrat (14%, down 1%) – the party of current president SBY. Just behind is Partai Gerindra (12%, unchanged) – the party of prominent Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto. Support for other parties is split many ways – PAN (5%, unchanged), PKB (5%, down 2%), PKS (5%, unchanged), Partai Hanura (5%, unchanged), PPP (2%, unchanged) and Partai NasDem (2%, unchanged) and 14% can’t say who they support. Debnath Guharoy says: "The Jokowi phenomenon continues to rise. It has reached a level unseen in any multi-party democracy. He is pulling his party up, as his own popularity grows across the country. In contrast, the power of party leader Megawati Soekarnoputri is on the decline. Of the two PDI- P stalwarts, the choice of the voter is clear. Time is running out for a new challenger to emerge. It takes time to build a brand and there are just a few months left till the first round of elections." Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were held now, which party's candidate would you vote for?" And for the presidential poll "Who would you most likely vote for as president in the next general elections?” Finding No. 5360 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in November 2013 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,960 electors aged 17+. Face-to- FOR IMMEDIATE RELEAS face interviews were conducted in all 33 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 8% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election and 14% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Parliamentary Elections. For further information: Contact Office Mobile Debnath Guharoy: +62 21 5297 1562 +62 812 1052 622 Ira Soekirman: +62 21 5297 1562 +62 811 1654 000 PT Roy Morgan Research. Menara Jamsostek, North Tower 11th fl., Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto no. 38 Jakarta 12710 Tel: (021) 5297 1562 Fax: (021) 5297 1563 Website: www.roymorgan.com Offices also in: Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Canberra, London, Auckland and USA Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention Presidential Voting Intention Presidential Candidates October 2013 November 2013 % % Jokowi (Joko Widodo) 37 41 Prabowo Subianto 15 15 Aburizal Bakrie 14 13 Jusuf Kalla 5 6 Dahlan Iskan 6 5 Megawati Sukarnoputri 6 5 Mahfud MD 3 2 Hatta Rajasa 2 2 Other* 12 11 E TOTAL 100 100 *All other candidates asked – Ani Yudhoyono, Surya Paloh, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, Djoko Suyanto, Pramono Edhie Wibowo, Gita Wirjawan, Sutiyoso and Sri Mulyani Indrawati got less than 2% of the vote. Indonesian Parliamentary Voting Intention Parliamentary Voting Intention Political Parties October 2013 November 2013 % % PDIP 24 29 Partai Golkar 21 21 Partai Demokrat 15 14 Partai Gerindra 13 12 PAN 5 5 PKB 7 5 PKS 5 5 Partai Hanura 5 5 PPP 2 2 Partai NasDem 2 2 PBB 1 0 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEAS TOTAL 100 100 Margin of Error The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based.
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