Tim Francisco <[email protected]> GOOD MORNING: 10/23/18 Farm Direction ­ Van Trump Report 1 message The Van Trump Report <reply@vantrumpreport­email.com> Tue, Oct 23, 2018 at 7:15 AM Reply­To: Jordan <reply­feca15767463017c­314_HTML­36250946­100003450­1@vantrumpreport­email.com> To: [email protected] “Everyone must choose one of two pains: The pain of discipline or the pain of regret." ­ Jim Rohn TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2018 Printable Copy or Audio Version Morning Summary: Stocks are again significantly lower this morning. Larger investors continue "deleveraging" and cutting back on some of their high­flyer holdings. Allocations continue moving away from some of the more leveraged companies, as many seasoned investors and money­managers search for "safety" and "value" when in times of transition or uncertainty. Bottom­line, the market has become much more forward looking in its approach and strategy, as traders have become more uncertain about geopolitical headlines and U.S. corporate earning growth in the months ahead. The U.S. dollar is strong and borrowed money is finally starting to cost something. This new transition is causing some CEO's and corporate leaders to rethink planned growth projects and perhaps additional stock buybacks. Asset reallocation is real and clearly in vogue on Wall Street. It's been a good run, with the S&P 500 compounding at 17% annually since March 2009. Some of the bigger players are now wanting to pause a moment, count to "10 Mississippi", and see what happens? The lack of buy­side interest creates a small liquidity issue in the market as the money sloshes around and tries to readjust. This has created a bearish vacuum or tilt to the current market, something I don't see changing anytime soon. Eventually however, it could create a bullish "backdraft". For firefighters, this is a phenomenon in which a fire that has consumed all available oxygen then suddenly explodes when more oxygen is made available, typically because a door or window has been opened. I think eventually we could see a bullish backdraft, with the market exploding back to fresh new all­time highs. I just think it's going to take time and in the interim there could be some bargains to be had. Bears continue to point to ongoing trade issues, which seem to be on the back­burner until the beginning of the new year. The U.S. mid­term elections will be held in just two weeks. Then we move into the Thanksgiving (now less than 30­days away) and Christmas holiday's (63 days away). Most insiders believe the Fed is going to hike interest rates one more time between now and the end of the year, which probably helps keep the U.S. dollar supported, and keeps talk circulating that profit margins are going to be squeezed as we move into 2019. Bears are also pointing to the recent technical breakdown on the charts and many of the indexes breaking beneath nearby support. Keep in mind, this is the busiest week for U.S. earnings, with about 30% of all S&P 500 companies reporting. Today's earnings will include big names like Biogen, Capital One, Harley Davidson, Lockheed Martin, McDonalds, and Verizon. Ford Ranger Back in Production After 7 Years Absence: Ford is resuming U.S. production of the mid­sized Ranger pickup for the first time in seven years. The move is part of a plan to strengthen Ford's historically robust presence in trucks at a time when the automaker faces pressure from shareholders and an uncertain future. Ford shares are down more than ­30% this year, and the automaker is contending with high costs for materials, threats from traditional competitors and disruptive tech companies, as well as a trade war. The second­largest U.S. automaker invested $850 million in the Michigan assembly plant to build the Ranger and the Ford Bronco. The Ranger was discontinued in the U.S. in 2011, but produced internationally, while the Bronco was discontinued in 1996. Reintroducing both vehicles to the U.S. market is part of the company's plan to take advantage of America's shift in consumer sentiment back toward pickups, SUVs and crossovers. The first 2019 Rangers available to the public should roll off the line in a week or so. I hear we won't see the Ford Bronco roll off the line until 2020. It's rumored that the Bronco will finally show its face during the upcoming U.S. auto show season, which kicks off in January in Detroit. (Source: CNBC; Car & Driver) Patagonia Pushing Deeper Into Politics: In what campaign­finance experts say may be a first, outdoor clothing company Patagonia is endorsing two Democratic Senate candidates. The Ventura, California­based retailer announced recently it's backing two Democrats, incumbent Senator Jon Tester who is running for re­ election in Montana, and Representative Jacky Rosen as she seeks to unseat Republican Senator Dean Heller in Nevada. Patagonia spokeswoman Corley Kenna said. “We felt by motivating our community to vote, we could help protect the public lands and waters in those places.” Some political experts are saying Patagonia's pair of direct endorsements may constitute the first time any corporation has explicitly and publicly endorsed a candidate for office. Consumer­ facing companies traditionally shy away from taking sides publicly in candidate races. (Source: The Washington Post) Mega Millions Explodes To $1.6 Billion! Tonight's Mega Millions jackpot will set a world record for lottery drawings at an estimated $1.6 billion. There have been no winners since July 24th. Tickets sold for tonight's drawing are expected to cover 75% of all possible number combinations. In case you are wondering, the six winning numbers will be unveiled tonight at 10 p.m. CST. The cutoff for buying a $2 ticket varies by state, usually 15 minutes or one hour before the draw. Better go out and get your ticket before tonight's drawing. Since the Mega Millions game went to its current format of 70 numbers per ball in October 2017, the #1 ball has been drawn the most at 18 times; Balls #2, #28, and #70 have been drawn second most at 12 times; Balls #14, #17, and #42 are next being drawn 11 times; #11 and #32 are next, being drawn 10 times each. If you would like to see more historical data on numbers being drawn Click HERE What A Great Picture... This was sent my direction and I wanted to share. It shows farm dogs leading their cattle out of the recent floods. The story had a happy ending with all animals getting out safely. 1890, Indian Claims Shutdown ­ Benjamin Harrison issues a proclamation that extends the northern boundary of Nebraska into the Dakota territory. The decree also declares that all Indian claims to Nebraska territory have been officially “extinguished.” Harrison was the grandson of famed Indian fighter and treaty negotiator William Henry Harrison, who served one month as president in 1841 before succumbing to illness. The proclamation brought an official end to territorial conflicts in Nebraska between Indians and white settlers that had sporadically erupted from the 1860s to the late 1880s. As white settlement increased in Nebraska after the Homestead Act of 1862 (signed by President Abraham Lincoln), tribes such as the Sioux, Fox, Omaha and Ponca were gradually forced farther north onto reservations that could not sustain a traditional tribal way of life. Many Indians died from malaria, exposure or starvation. Members of the Ponca tried to return to their ancestral homelands in Nebraska and even took their case to court in 1879. The case made national headlines and earned the tribe sympathetic supporters. Although President Chester Arthur signed a decree in 1885 that returned a tiny portion of the Ponca’s original lands, he stipulated that all other lands “unselected by” any Indian tribes would be returned to the public domain. This included portions of already established Sioux, Omaha and Ponca reservations. Harrison’s proclamation of 1890 re­ confirmed the boundaries of Ponca territory within the state of Nebraska and settled the rest of the disputed northern border, speeding settlement of Nebraska by whites. Federal recognition of the Ponca tribe was officially terminated in 1966. Without their status as a recognized tribe, they lost title to what little land had been left to them by Harrison. One hundred years after Harrison’s proclamation, on October 31, 1990, President George H.W. Bush reinstated the tribe, giving them the right to reestablish their homeland in the state of Nebraska . 1925, Heeeeeere's Johnny, ­ Johnny Carson, who will become known to most of America as the longtime host of the popular late­night TV program The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson, is born in Corning, Iowa. As host of the highly rated Tonight Show, which aired on NBC from 1962 to 1992, Carson became a bona fide American institution and entertainment icon. Carson grew up in Norfolk, Nebraska, served in the U.S. Navy and attended the University of Nebraska. By the early 1950s, he was living in California and working in radio and the then­new medium of television. He later moved to New York City, and in 1957 became host of the popular game show Who Do You Trust? In 1958, Carson appeared on The Tonight Show as a substitute for host Jack Paar. The Tonight Show had originated in 1951 in Los Angeles as a radio program hosted by Steve Allen. In 1954, the program moved to TV and in 1956, Jack Parr replaced Allen as the host.