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Biobasert Prosessindustri Prosess21 Ekspertgrupperapport

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Biobasert Prosessindustri Prosess21 Ekspertgrupperapport Biobasert Prosessindustri Prosess21 Ekspertgrupperapport Kapittel 3 SAMMENDRAG Prosess21 ble etablert av Nærings- og fiskeridepartementet 25. april 2018. Hovedoppgaven er å gi strategiske råd og anbefalinger om hvordan Norge best kan få til en utvikling i retning av minimale utslipp fra prosessindustrien i 2050 og samtidig legge til rette for at eksisterende og nye virksomheter i prosessindustrien har bærekraftig vekst i denne perioden. Denne rapporten er første delrapport fra ekspertgruppe fra Prosess21 og omhandler biobasert prosessindustri. Det avvirkes i dag ca. 11 mill. fm3 gran og furu som sagtømmer og massevirke i Norge. Av dette volumet ender ca. 2,3 mill. fm3 opp i sagde produkter, ca. 5 mill. fm3 anvendes som råstoff til industri og energiproduksjon i Norge og ca. 3,6 mill. fm3 blir eksportert, i hovedsak til Sverige. Norsk treforedlingsindustri anvender i hovedsak gran. Norsk skog er sannsynligvis det eneste biobaserte råstoffet som er egnet for prosessindustrien med hensyn på volum og pris fram mot 2050. På kort sikt er det mulig å øke avvirkningen med 2 mill. fm3 men dette kan i hovedsak bare skje ved økt avvirkning av furu og bjørk, fram mot 2050 er det kanskje mulig med en ytterligere økning på 3 mill. fm3 av samtlige treslag. Dette vil totalt gi en ny tilgang til råstoff for prosessindustrien på ca. 3,5 mill. fm3. Denne økningen er betinget av økt etterspørsel etter sagtømmer til byggevarer, da dette på grunn av høyere betalingsvilje er driveren for skogshogsten. tillegg er det mulig å hente ut rundt 2 mill. fm3 GROT (Grener og Topper) hvis det etableres et marked med teknologi og betalingsvilje for å ta dette råstoffet i bruk. Samtidig indikerer prognoser fra «Veikart for Prosessindustrien» og ulike industriprosjekter i Norge et økt behov på 14- 20 mill. fm3 råstoff fra skogen fram mot 2050. Det er altså et betydelig gap mellom potensiell tilgang på opptil 5,5 mill. fm3 og norske industriambisjoner, da ekspertgruppen i tillegg konkluderer med at det er lite realistisk å ta tilbake volumene som i dag blir eksportert. Ekspertgruppen anbefaler med bakgrunn i dette at prosessindustrien fokuserer på produkter med høy verdiskapning og som støtter opp under eksisterende industri, og at lavverdig råstoff og biprodukter fra produksjonsprosessene benyttes til bioenergi og biodrivstoff. Videre peker den på at CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) og elektrifisering må ta en betydelig rolle for at norsk prosessindustri skal nå visjonen med nullutslipp i 2050, og at gjenbruk av karbon gjennom CCU (Carbon Capture and Usage) kombinert med fornybar elektrisitet kan ha en betydelig rolle for å øke verdiskapning og redusere utslipp for fastlands Norge. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Prosess21 was established by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries on 25 April 2018. The main task is to provide strategic advice and recommendations on how Norway can best achieve a trend towards minimal emissions from the process industry in 2050 and at the same time facilitate sustainable growth in existing and new businesses. This report is a sub-report from expert group with emphasis on biobased process industry. Today approx. 11 million fm3 spruce and pine are logged as saw logs and pulpwood in Norway. Of this volume, approx. 2.3 million fm3 ends up as sawn wood, approx. 5 million fm3 is used as raw material for industrial processes and energy production in Norway and approx. 3.6 million fm3 are exported, mainly to Sweden. The Norwegian wood processing industry mainly uses spruce. The forest is probably the only bio-based raw material from Norway suitable for the process industry in terms of volume and price up to 2050. In the short term, it is possible to increase the felling by 2 million fm3, and this can possibly be done by increased felling of pine and birch, until 2050 it is possible that a further increase of 3 million fm3 of all wood species. This will in total provide possible additional raw material for the process industry of approx. 3.5 million fm3. This increase will depend on an increased demand for saw logs for construction products, as this is the driver of forest harvesting due to higher prices. In addition, it is possible to harvest around 2 million fm3 GROT (branches and top) if a market with the necessary technology and willingness to pay is established to use this raw material. At the same time, predictions from the "Process Industry roadmap" and various new industrial projects in Norway indicate an increased need of 14-20 million fm3 of raw material from the forest up to 2050. Thus, there is a significant gap between potential access of up to 5.5 million fm3 and Norwegian industrial ambitions, as the expert group also concludes that it is not realistic to take back the volumes currently exported. Based on this, the expert group recommends that the process industry focus on high value-added products and products that support existing process industry, and that low-value raw materials and by-products from the production processes are used for bioenergy and biofuels. It also points out that CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) and electrification must play a major role for the Norwegian process industry to achieve the zero emission vision in 2050, and that carbon recycling through CCU (Carbon Capture and Usage) combined with renewable electricity can have a significant role in increasing value creation and reducing emissions for mainland Norway. Besøksadresse: Forskningsrådet, Drammensveien 288, 0283 Oslo www.prosess21.no INNHOLDSFORTEGNELSE SAMMENDRAG ...................................................................................................................................... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................... 1 1. INNLEDNING ...................................................................................................................................... 3 2. BIOBASERT RÅSTOFF I NORGE ..................................................................................................... 4 Tømmer ................................................................................................................................................ 4 Returvirke ............................................................................................................................................. 8 Returfiber .............................................................................................................................................. 8 Alger ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 3. KONKURRANSESITUASJONEN FOR TØMMER ........................................................................... 10 4. BIOBASERT PROSESSINDUSTRI I NORGE ................................................................................. 12 Tremekanisk industri og byggevareindustri ....................................................................................... 13 Treforedling ........................................................................................................................................ 13 Byggevareindustrien........................................................................................................................... 14 Metallurgisk industri ............................................................................................................................ 14 Ny biobasert prosessindustri i Norge ................................................................................................. 14 Skogen som karbonlager ................................................................................................................... 19 Oppsummering ................................................................................................................................... 19 5. BIOBASERT INDUSTRIUTVIKLING I LAND UTENFOR NORGE .................................................. 21 6. SKOGEN OG KLIMAGASSUTSLIPP FRA PROSESSINDUSTRIEN ............................................. 22 7. BIOBASERT PROSESSINDUSTRI OG CO2 FANGST OG LAGRING ........................................... 24 8. MARKED OG PRODUKTER ............................................................................................................ 25 9. DIGITALISERING OG INFRASTRUKTUR ....................................................................................... 26 10. KOMPETANSEBEHOV .................................................................................................................. 27 11. KOMMENTARER FRA NORSK OLJERAFFINERINGS- OG BIODRIVSTOFFINDUSTRI ........... 27 12. KONKLUSJONER .......................................................................................................................... 28 13. ANBEFALINGER ............................................................................................................................ 30 14. BIDRAGSYTERE ............................................................................................................................ 30 15. MANDAT FOR EKSPERTGRUPPEN ............................................................................................ 31 16. REFERANSELISTE ........................................................................................................................ 33 Bærekraftig vekst med minimal utslipp · www.prosess21.no 2 1. INNLEDNING Prosess 21 er etablert av Nærings- og fiskeridepartementet
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