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Inside: from the President Volume 24, No. 3, December 2005 Inside: From the President .........................1 DA in the UK ................................4 Call for Papers ................................6 Award for DAS Member ................3 Aloha to DA .....................................4 Perspective ......................................8 INFORMS 2006 .............................3 DA in Argentina .............................5 From The President year and introduce our leadership Kleinmuntz. team for the coming year. Please Greg Parnell contact anyone directly if you • Jason Merrick will continue as would like to participate in any of our Newsletter Editor. the committees or present a paper in one of our sponsored tracks at • Bob Nau will continue as our upcoming conferences. information officer and website manager. Jason Merrick and • Craig Kirkwood continues as Christina Werner will be working President-Elect/Vice President. with Bob to develop a new society Craig also represents us on the website. Subdivisions Council and Chairs our Nominating Committee. • Jim Smith will continue as our Decision Analysis Electronic • Elisabeth Paté-Cornell continues Mailing List monitor. as our Past President. From the President • Jack Kloeber will continue to • Robin Dillon-Merrill continues chair our Membership Committee. at Secretary-Treasurer. In this update, I would like to We will be doing a membership identify the new DAS leadership study this year. • Bob Bordley and Jeff Keisler team, list some of the highlights completed their service on the of the San Francisco meeting, • Kazuo Ezawa will continue council. Returning council describe the decision analysis to chair our Practice Awards members include Jim Smith, Jack events at the Society for Risk Committee. Karen Jenni will also Kloeber, Manel Baucells, and Jeff Analysis meeting, and highlight be on the committee. Stonebraker. Our two new council society membership. members are Eric Bickel and • Our Publications Committee was Karen Jenni. New DAS Leadership Team George Wu, Jim Dyer, and Jim Smith. Vicki Bier, Jim Dyer and • Continuing as the Decision I would like to thank our society Eric Bickel will be on this year’s Analysis Journal Co-Editors in leadership for their service last committee. Chief are Bob Clemen and Don continued on page 2 Page 1 Volume 24, Number 3 (December 2005) Decision Analysis Newsletter • Our Student Award Committee was Jeff Stonebraker • The Publication Award was awarded to Daniel and Eva Regnier. Next year’s committee will be Jeff Kahneman for the paper “Maps Of Bounded and Erin Baker. Rationality: Psychology For Behavioral Economics” published in American Economic Review, 2003. The following are the DAS sponsored meeting organizers: • The Student Paper Award was given to Janne Gustafsson for the paper “Contingent Portfolio • Bill Klimack is helping plan the DA session at Programming for the Management of Risky Projects” INFORMS Practice Conference Miami (30 Apr-2 with Ahti Salo. May 2006). A DA track with six presentations has been arranged. • Jamie Jia and Shouyang Wang are our DA track chairs for Hong Kong 2006 sponsored by China OR and INFORMS (June 2006). • Ali Abbas and Eva Regnier are organizing the Decision Analysis Sponsored Cluster at the INFORMS 2006 in Pittsburgh (November 2006). INFORMS 2005 The San Francisco meeting was very well done, especially considering the short time the planners had to prepare for the meeting. For those who missed • The Practice Award was given to Mario Castillo, the meeting, I’ll mention some of the highlights. Our Alvaro Mendoza, and Sergio Cabrales for “Improving Decision Analysis Cluster Chairs Eric Bickel and Quality of Decision Making -- A Collaborative Jason Merrick organized a great meeting! With the Approach between Universidad de los Andes and BP challenges of the change of location, Eric and Jason Exploration Company – Colombia.” should get credit for planning two conferences! • The Ramsey Medal, the Society’s highest honor, was given to Larry Phillips of the London School of Economics. The Ramsey Medal committee was lead by Jim Dyer. Detlof von Winderfelt introduced Larry and presented the award. Larry’s two sons also attended the ceremony. • We also sponsored a decision analysis tutorial by Jim Matheson. Although it was the first presentation of the conference, Jim’s presentation was well attended. continued on page 3 Page 2 Volume 24, Number 3 (December 2005) Decision Analysis Newsletter Decision Analysis and Risk Speciality Group INFORMS 2006 (DARSG) in the Society for Risk Analysis INFORMS 2006, Pittsburgh, Nov 5th – 8th The DARSG (organized by Igor Linkov, Greg Kiker, Call for Presentations Jeff Keisler, and others) sponsors conferences, training courses, and seminars related to risk and decision It is time to start planning the DAS track for INFORMS analysis. I attended the annual SRA meeting in Orlando 2006, in Pittsburgh , while we are still inspired by the in early December which featured several DARSG- excellent DAS track in San Francisco. sponsored activities including a continuing education workshop on “Integrated Risk Communication and Please take a moment to think ahead to November Decision Analysis: Process, Methods and Tools,” 5-8th. Which topics are you particularly interested Symposia on “Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Risk in hearing about? Would like to organize a session? Assessment and Homeland Security Applications” Present in the decision analysis track? If so, we would and “Environmental Security in Harbors and Coastal like to hear from you. We welcome all inputs and Areas: Management using Comparative Risk suggestions to make this an enjoyable and enriching Assessment and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis” as meeting for DAS. well as several topical sessions. We would like to thank those who have already ap- Society Membership proached us and offered to organize sessions. We have received offers for sessions on medical decision mak- DAS is now the second largest INFORMS society with ing, dependence in multiattribute utility, behavioral 936 members. We have had steady growth in regular decision making, portfolio analysis, and decision members and large growth in student members. We analysis practice. In addition we will have a featured also have 167 international members. joint session with the Homeland security track. Larry Philips will also be giving the DAS sponsored tutorial I look forward to hearing from you. on Decision Conferencing. Remember, Decision Analysis is The Science of Better Thanks for your time, and please respond to both of Decisions! us ([email protected], [email protected]), and put “DAS - Session” somewhere in your title line. Greg Parnell Thanks again and we look forward to seeing you in Pittsburgh!! Award for DAS Member Ali and Eva Congratulations to Sue Goldie on receipt of a Ma- cArthur Award. Sue has made important contribu- tions to global health policy through her creative and effective application of decision analytic tools. She consistently demonstrates how decision analytic methods can be accessible and applied to real world health policy issues and policymakers. Armed with these methods, Sue’s impact on global health policy exemplifies translating decision making research into practice. Page 3 Volume 24, Number 3 (December 2005) Decision Analysis Newsletter DA in the UK Aloha to DA Decision Analysis in the British OR Society Con- The IFORS 2005 conference brought a pleasant gath- ference ering of speakers from the Decision Analysis Society. Thanks to John Butler for his organization of the De- The 47th conference of the UK OR Society took place cision Analysis track sessions and for ensuring that in September 2005. For the first time in the recent past, the sessions were in the first two days. The sessions the conference featured a Decision Analysis stream, included a wide variety of topics. The first day started organised by the authors of this notice. with Rakesh Sarin’s talk on money and happiness, Jim The interest in our stream exceeded our wildest Felli’s talk on graphical representations of MCDM, expectations, with a total of 22 papers, which made Tianjun’s talk on effects of reference point dependence the stream the largest in the conference. The papers on prior selection, and Kazuo Ezzawa’s talk on ad- presented covered a wide range of topics, including vances in pharmaceutical portfolio management . risk analysis, Bayesian networks, multi-criteria deci- The second session featured Bob Clemen and Canan sion analysis and multi-objective optimisation. Most Ulu’s model of probability judgement that incorporates contributors were from the UK, although presenters some empirical properties of subjective probabilities. came from as far afield as Kuwait! Next was John Butler, Jian Min Jia and Jim Dyer’s Prof Larry Phillips of the London School of Econom- model on proxy attributes in preference models, fol- ics (LSE) contributed a keynote, “Decision Analysis lowed by Bob Nau’s talk on syndicates, opinion pools in Social Context”. This stimulating paper reflected and state-dependent utility, and Sam Bodily’s talk on on years of experience of practising and teaching deci- decision and risk analysis in pharmaceuticals. sion analysis, and offered a number of frameworks for The third session featured an arcade of talks: Manel thinking about the organisational issues in undertaking Baucell’s talk on the performance of heuristics in Decision Analysis interventions. Larry also delivered binary Multiattribute choice, Eva Regnier’s talk on a popular tutorial, “Decision Analysis
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