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Preamble Describing the Incident at Ipperwash and Were Then Asked If They Felt If the OPP Used Excessive Force Or Followed Reasonable Procedures

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Preamble Describing the Incident at Ipperwash and Were Then Asked If They Felt If the OPP Used Excessive Force Or Followed Reasonable Procedures Ipperwash Survey Report Prepared for Maynard Sam George March 2002 1 Objective The following represents the results from a public opinion survey conducted for Maynard Sam George. The intent of the survey was to gauge the opinions of eligible voting age Ontario residents on a series of issues related to native protestor Dudley George and the incident with the OPP that occurred at Ipperwash Provincial Park in September 1995. Methodology and Logistics A total of 1,025 respondents, 18 years of age and older, were interviewed in the survey between the days of February 18th and February 25th 2002. The regional breakdown is as follows. Metropolitan Toronto 21% 905 Belt 21% Southwestern 24% Eastern 14% Northern & Central 20% (10% each) The survey was conducted using computer-assisted techniques of telephone interviewing (CATI) and random number selection. The study sample was drawn using a modified method of “Random Digit Dialing” (Mitofsky-Waksberg). A total of 30% of all interviews were monitored and the management of Oraclepoll Research supervised 100%. Initial calls were made from 5:30 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. with call-backs of no-answers and busy numbers made on a (staggered) daily rotating basis up to 5 times (from 10:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m.) until contact was made. In addition, telephone interview appointments were attempted with those respondents unable to complete the survey at the time of contact. The margin of error for a survey of this nature is +/- 2.9%, 19/20 times. 2 Executive Summary Vote Intent Q2.If a Provincial election were held today in Ontario, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your riding of Timiskaming-Cochrane? Q3.If a Provincial election were held today, which party’s candidate would you be leaning towards? 80% 70% 60% 50% 50% 40% 34% 30% 20% 10% 10% 6% 0% Liberal PC NDP Other Half (50%) of decided voters in the province of Ontario back the Liberal Party, while slightly more than one third (34%) support the PC’s. 10% of the electorate would vote for the NDP and 6% cited other Parties as their preferred choice. A total of 23% of voters surveyed were undecided at the time of the interview. Liberal support was strongest among younger voters or those aged 18-34 (72%) and among residents of the City of Toronto (63%) and the north of the province (57%). The PC’s were strongest in central (61%) and eastern Ontario (43%). The gender gap was evident at the time of the survey with more males favoring the Tories (38%), compared to females (29%) but it is still slanted in favor of the Liberals as a high percentage of both females (54%) and males (47%) back the Liberal Party. 3 Ernie Eves is the favorite leadership candidate among likely Tory voters with 53% backing his bid to succeed outgoing premier Mike Harris. The remaining support is scattered amongst Jim Flaherty (14%), Elizabeth Witmer (7%), Tony Clement (5%) and Chris Stockwell (4%). 18% did not know who they would support. As well, half (50%) of card carrying PC Party members also support Ernie Eves. Awareness of the Issue “How aware would you say that you are of native protestor Dudley George and the incident with the OPP that occurred at Ipperwash Provincial Park in September 1995?” 80% 70% 60% 55% 50% 44% 40% 30% 20% 10% 1% 0% Total unaware Total aware Don't know The electorate is split with respect to awareness of Dudley George and the incident with the OPP at Ipperwash in 1995, with only slightly more than half (55%) of the public was aware of the incident. Awareness increases with age (18 to 34 – 34%, 35 to 54 – 60%, 55 & older – 68%), as \well as with increasing income (under $35,000 – 43%, Under $75,000 – 59%, $75,000 & higher – 58%), while more males (59%) than females (51%) knew of the issue. Residents of central (73%) and southwestern Ontario (71%) had the highest knowledge of the incident, while northern Ontario residents were least aware (43%). 4 Use of Force On September 4, 1995, Dudley George and approximately thirty unarmed native protestors occupied Ipperwash Provincial Park to protest the desecration of burial grounds. Shortly after, the newly elected provincial PC government of Mike Harris directed the OPP to remove the protestors, resulting in the shooting death of George. The government and the OPP maintained that the protestors first shot at police who then returned fire. However, a court ruled that the protestors were unarmed, and found an OPP Sergeant guilty of shooting Dudley George when he knew George was unarmed. In your opinion, did the authorities use excessive force at Ipperwash or did they follow proper procedures? 80% 70% 60% 49% 50% 40% 30% 26% 25% 20% 10% 0% Excessive force Proper procedures Don't know All respondents were read a brief preamble describing the incident at Ipperwash and were then asked if they felt if the OPP used excessive force or followed reasonable procedures. Almost twice as many voters felt that excessive force was used (49%), compared to those who were of the opinion the OPP followed proper procedures, but a high one-quarter (25%) responded that they did not know. Those who most felt excessive force was used were 18-34 year olds (60%), Toronto residents (65%) as well as Liberal (67%) and NDP (64%) voters. Tories were split as to whether proper procedures were followed (38%) or if excessive force was used (38%). 5 Judicial Inquiry The family of Dudley George has launched a civil suit for wrongful death against the OPP and the Ontario government, which they have agreed to withdraw if a Public Judicial Inquiry is held. Please respond to each of the following statements using the scale of strongly disagree, somewhat disagree, somewhat agree or strongly agree. The provincial government of Mike Harris or his successor should call a public judicial inquiry into the death of Dudley George. 100% 90% 80% 72% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 19% 20% 10% 10% 0% Total disagree Total agree Don't know More than seven in ten voting age Ontario residents agreed that the provincial government of Mike Harris or his successor should call a public judicial inquiry into the death of Dudley George. Slightly more females (74%) than males (69%) favored an inquiry, as did younger respondents 18-34 (73%) and 35-54 (75%), compared to older ones 55 and over (56%). In addition, Liberal (79%) and NDP supporters (86%) were more inclined to agree that there should be an inquiry, compared to PC’s, although a still high 65% of Tories also favored an inquiry. 6 All of those PC’s who back Stockwell (100%) favor an inquiry, as did 80% of Witmer’s backers, 75% of Clement’s, 70% of Flaherty’s, and 59% of Eves supporters. If the provincial government would call a public judicial inquiry into the death of Dudley George, 10% of voters stated that this action would make them more likely to vote PC, 8% claimed less likely to vote Tory and 76% claimed it would have no effect on their decision, while 6% did not know. 18% of PC voters would be more likely to vote for the Party while only 4% would be less likely, 76% claimed it would have no effect on them and 3% did not know. A total of 14% of NDP voters would be more likely to vote PC under this scenario, as would 6% of Liberals and 6% of undecided voters. The provincial government of Mike Harris was responsible 49% 31% 20% for the death of Dudley George I feel that the government has refused to order an inquiry because the premier 32% 49% 18% and senior cabinet ministers do not want their role in George's death exposed 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total disagree Total agree Don't know 7 The public is divided on the role the government played at Ipperwash and in the Death of Dudley George. For example, while 49% disagreed that the government was responsible for George’s death, 31% agreed that it was and one-fifth (20%) claimed that they did not know. But on the other hand a significant number of voters feel that the government does have something to hide, as almost half of Ontario voters (49%), are of the belief that the government has refused to call an inquiry because the premier and senior cabinet ministers do not want their role exposed. A total of 36% of Tory supporters agreed, 46% disagreed and 18% did not know. Ipperwash Survey Report Prepared for Maynard Sam George 8 March 2002 9 Table of Contents Objective 3 Methodology & Logistics 3 Executive Summary4 Results by Question11 Crosstabulations16 10 Objective The following represents the results from a public opinion survey conducted for Maynard Sam George. The intent of the survey was to gauge the opinions of eligible voting age Ontario residents on a series of issues related to native protestor Dudley George and the incident with the OPP that occurred at Ipperwash Provincial Park in September 1995. Methodology and Logistics A total of 1,025 respondents, 18 years of age and older, were interviewed in the survey between the days of February 18th and February 25th 2002. The regional breakdown is as follows. Metropolitan Toronto 21% 905 Belt 21% Southwestern 24% Eastern 14% Northern & Central 20% (10% each) The survey was conducted using computer-assisted techniques of telephone interviewing (CATI) and random number selection. The study sample was drawn using a modified method of “Random Digit Dialing” (Mitofsky-Waksberg).
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