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Regional Morning Pack Regional Morning Pack Refer to important disclosures at the end of each report REGIONAL MORNING PACK 12 Sep 2018 Top idea of the day Upcoming Events Malaysia Telecom MAPLETREE Corporate Day Date: 20 Sep Facing regulatory snags Location: Thailand Bangkok TOH Woo Kim • Mobile stable with some signs of stabilisation seen in prepaid segment • Fixed-line broadband is undergoing repricing in line with government's agenda for cheaper broadband • 6% SST on prepaid reloads is resolved; 700MHz spectrum auction will be next • We are Neutral on the sector; Axiata is our only BUY Read more... Summary The Big Pictures DBS Economics & Strategy: China chart book - CNY has stabilised, for now Industry Focus Regional Steel: Prices set to fall as China eases winter production cuts Stocks Singapore OUE Commercial REIT: Proposed acquisition of OUE Downtown Thailand The Erawan Group: Look beyond the low tide Korea Pearl Abyss: Long-term growth story returns POSCO: A closer look at POSCO’s KRW45tr investment plan Regional Morning Pack The Big Picture DBS Economics & Strategy China chart book - CNY has stabilised, for now Nathan CHOW • To keep the economy afloat, monetary policy has started tilting toward loosening. • The effect is best evident by the PBOC’s liquidity provision (i.e. RRR cuts, MLF) and trends in interbank interest rates. • The easing backdrop has resulted yuan weakness. Onshore exchange rate depreciated more than 9% since April. • In a bid to stabilise the CNY exchange rate, PBOC reintroduced the countercyclical factor and the reserve requirement on FX forward transaction. Capital flow through the free trade accounting unit was also tightened. Read more... Industry Focus Regional Steel Prices set to fall as China eases winter production cuts LEE Eun Young / Yi Seul SHIN • China to allow northern provinces to decide for themselves the degree of winter output cuts • Steel, raw material prices fall; stock market reacts negatively • However, policy intention and measures are yet to be confirmed • Outlook and fundamentals of steel sector to moderate Read more... Regional Morning Pack Stocks to watch Singapore OUE Commercial REIT (OUECT SP): HOLD Market Cap: US$747m | Average Daily Value: US$0.09m Last Traded Price: S$0.665; Price Target: S$0.67 (Upside 0.6%) Mervin SONG / Derek TAN Proposed acquisition of OUE Downtown • To acquire the office component of OUE Downtown for S$908m or NPI yield of 5.0% (including income support) • Valuation of S$1,713 psf is at a discount to recent office transactions in Singapore after adjusting for land tenure • Near term DPU dilution from rights issue but transaction to boost medium organic growth profile thereafter • Maintain HOLD, TP of S$0.67 Read more... Thailand The Erawan Group (ERW TB): BUY Market Cap: US$592m | Average Daily Value: US$2.61m Last Traded Price: Bt7.75; Price Target: Bt10.50 (Upside 35.5%) Namida ARTISPONG Look beyond the low tide • Expect another quarter of y-o-y earnings contraction in 3Q18F • Hotel RevPar declined slightly y-o-y during July and August • Healthy earnings growth to resume from 4Q18F onwards Read more… Regional Morning Pack Korea Pearl Abyss (263750 KS): BUY Market Cap: US$ 2,781m Last Traded Price: KRW242,800; Price Target: KRW340,000 (prev. KRW300,000) Regional Research Team Long-term growth story returns • Acquisition of Icelandic game studio CCP Games to revitalise new game momentum and dissipate risk of reliance on a single IP for Pearl Abyss • More attractive valuations likely once CCP’s earnings are included in Pearl Abyss’s statements • Retain BUY, TP raised to KRW340,000 Read more... POSCO (005490 KS): BUY Market Cap: US$22,650m | Average Daily Value: US$63.80m Last Traded Price: KRW292,000; Price Target: KRW480,000 (Upside 64.4%) LEE Eun Young A closer look at POSCO’s KRW45tr investment plan • POSCO announced a KRW45tr investment plan for 2019-2023, sending its shares lower on concerns • Actual investment would likely be lower and within its means • With steel remaining as a core business, battery materials could be an additional growth driver for POSCO, going forward • Maintain BUY and TP of KRW480,000 Read more... Regional Morning Pack Market Data Key Indices Earnings Gth (%) PE (x) Closed % chg 18F 19F 18F 19F as of Vs YTD QTD MTD Singapore 13.2 6.0 13.6 12.8 Indices 11 Sep 18 Previous (%) (%) (%) HK HSI 12.4 11.3 10.8 9.7 Asia HK HSCCI (Red) 36.8 14.3 10.1 8.8 KLCI 1,799 0.0 0.1 6.4 (1.1) BSE Sensex 37,413 (1.3) 9.9 5.6 (3.2) HK HSCEI (H) 5.7 11.2 7.7 6.9 SET 1,672 (1.1) (4.6) 4.8 (2.9) CSI300 19.9 15.4 11.0 9.5 PCOMP 7,518 (1.0) (12.2 4.5 (4.3) SH Comp 27.1 13.6 10.7 9.4 Nikkei 225 22,665 1.3 (0.4)) 1.6 (0.9) SZ Comp 47.9 21.8 16.0 13.1 JCI Index 5,831 (0.3) (8.3) 0.5 (3.1) Thailand 10.0 8.0 15.7 14.5 Taiex 10,752 0.2 1.0 (0.8) (2.8) Indonesia* 10.2 12.7 14.9 13.2 KOSPI 2,283 (0.2) (7.5) (1.8) (1.7) HSCCI Index 4,177 (0.9) (5.6) (4.6) (3.2) * FY17A / FY18F STI 3,110 (0.4) (8.6) (4.9) (3.2) Source: DBS Bank, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Shanghai A 2,665 (0.2) (19.4 (6.4) (2.2) HSCEI Index 10,333 (1.0) (11.8) (6.7) (5.0) MXFEJ index 592 (0.5) (11.9) (6.8) (5.1) Hang Seng 26,423 (0.7) (11.7) (8.7) (5.3) U.S./Others ) Dow Jones 25,971 0.4 5.1 7.0 0.0 S&P 2,888 0.4 8.0 6.2 (0.5) NASDAQ 7,972 0.6 15.5 6.2 (1.7) FTSE 100 7,274 (0.1) (5.4) (4.8) (2.1) DAX Index 11,970 (0.1) (7.3) (2.7) (3.2) Commodity Indicators Commodities Latest Previous YTD % chng Closing Closing -4.4% Nickel Spot 12.6% Coal Spot Nickel Spot USD/mt 12,143 12,324 -4.9% Tin Coal Spot USD/mt 117 114 -0.9% Steel (weekly) Tin USD/mt 19,045 19,005 Copper Steel (weekly) RMB/mt 580 - -8.1% Gold Spot Copper USD/lb 5,859 5,910 -14.3% Soybean Oil Spot -15.5% Gold Spot USD/t. oz 1,198 1,199 Soybean Spot Sugar #11 Soybean Oil Spot USD/pound 28 28 -7.2% Rice Soybean Spot USD/bushel 8 8 15.0% Wheat Spot Sugar #11 USD/lb 11 11 TSL Crude Palm Oil Rice USD/cwt 11 11 -7.3% Palm Oil Spot (FOB Msia) Wheat Spot USD/bushel 5 5 18.4% Crude Oil Brent Spot TSL Crude Palm Oil USD/mt 564 573 -2.2% Corn Spot -6.4% TSR20 Rubber Forward Palm Oil Spot (FOB Msia) RM/mt 2,217 2,223 -18% -8% 2% 12% 22% Crude Oil Brent Spot USD/barrel 79 77 Corn Spot USD/bushel 3 3 YTD % chng TSR20 Rubber Forward EUR/kg 117 116 20% US IG CDS Credit Spreads US Junk Bond 323 327 -8% US Junk Bond US IG CDS 13 14 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Bank Regional High Conviction Picks Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 12 Sep 2018 High Conviction Stock Picks 12-mth % Chg 3mths Price Target Total since Date of Avg 11 Sep 18 Price Return % Chg Entry Entry Mcap Daily T/O Company Exch Sector (LCY) (LCY) (%) -1w Date to List US$m US$m Big Caps (>US$2bn) Genting Spore GENS SP SG Consumer Services 1.020 1.55 53 (8.1) 17 3-Jan-17 8,920 27.9 SATS Ltd SATS SP SG Industrials 4.960 5.65 17 (2.2) -3 13-Jul-18 4,022 6.1 Singapore Airlines SIA SP SG Consumer Services 9.610 12.40 31 (2.1) 1 24-Aug-18 8,258 13.1 ST Engineering STE SP SG Industrials 3.290 4.10 29 (0.9) -2 22-Jun-18 7,451 8.8 AIA Group Ltd 1299 HK HK Financials 62.000 87.00 40 (8.8) -8 15-Jan-18 95,387 167.1 Anhui Conch Cement 914 HK HK Industrials 41.750 57.26 38 (13.4) 27 27-Oct-17 28,186 80.3 China Resources Cement 1313 HK HK Industrials 8.440 9.67 15 (8.6) 118 23-Jun-17 7,508 48.1 China Resources Land Ltd 1109 HK HK Real Estate 24.950 34.50 40 (8.4) -9 5-Mar-18 22,030 44.5 China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings 570 HK HK Health Care 5.060 8.00 58 (9.2) -20 20-Apr-18 3,246 13.3 Tencent Holdings 700 HK HK Technology 308.000 428.00 39 (9.0) 58 6-Jan-17 373,653 1,118.7 Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable 6869 HK HK Technology 25.000 48.70 95 (10.4) -31 29-Mar-18 2,414 10.0 Axiata Group AXIATA MY Telecommunications 4.530 5.05 15 (5.6) 4 17-Aug-18 9,910 5.5 Genting Bhd GENTMK MK MY Consumer Services 8.200 12.15 49 (4.9) -8 1-Jun-18 7,612 8.0 Hong Leong Bank HLBK MK MY Financials 20.460 23.50 17 (0.5) 10 12-Mar-18 10,095 4.5 Public Bank PBK MK MY Financials 25.000 28.20 15 (0.5) 0 28-May-18 23,409 32.9 Airports of Thailand AOT TB TH Consumer Services 62.000 75.00 22 (5.3) -13 11-Apr-18 26,978 52.9 CP ALL CPALL TB TH Consumer Services 65.250 89.00 37 (2.6) -25 11-Apr-18 17,853 72.1 Indorama Ventures IVL TB TH Basic Material 56.500 82.00 46 (3.0) 1 11-Apr-18 9,662 36.2 Minor International MINT TB TH Consumer Services 38.000 46.00 22 (1.9) 8 8-Jun-18 5,346 15.6 Hana Financial Group 086790 KS KR Financials 42,200 67,000 63 (1.7) -7 21-May-18 11,259 31.3 Kumho Petrochemical 011780 KS KR Basic Material 101,500 145,000 44 5.3 -9 21-May-18 2,748 13.7 LS Industrial Systems 010120 KS KR Industrials 77,900 90,000 17 5.7 0 21-May-18 2,077 7.2 Samsung Electronics 005930 KS KR Technology 45,050 65,000 47 (5.5) -12 16-Mar-18 256,985 426.2 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P, DBS Bank, DBS Vickers Company Big Caps (>US$2bn) Reasons for Picks / Potential Catalysts Genting Singapore • VIP volumes still soft but win rate was better than expected • With bad debts under control, GENS guiding that is now focused on selectively growing its VIP business SATS • Changi’s air and passenger traffic growth of +5% y-o-y YTD, and cargo growth of 4% y-oy YTD will see continued support for earnings growth in FY19F • Positive drivers stem from 1) passenger and air traffic growth at Changi Terminal 4; 2) automation and staff productivity driving modest cost increase and better margins in the next few years; 3) the development of a flight kitchen in Turkey; and 4) the opening of Terminal 5 • Stock offers dividend yield of 3.5% Singapore Airlines •
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