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Kakao Games to Overshoot to the Upside [Korea] September 10, 2020 Game s (Overweight/Maintain) Kakao Games to overshoot to the upside Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Chang-kwean Kim [email protected] HeeSeok Lim [email protected] Game performance trends Analysis of game performance trends in July and August (Sensor Tower data) We analyzed the revenue trends of major titles using data from mobile app data provider Sensor Tower. Our figures are based on a statistical analysis and may differ from actual revenue, depending on the time series and sample size. Thus, our figures should be viewed as a reference for the performance trends of each title, rather than as absolute values. New title expectations to drive Initiate our coverage on Kakao Games with a Buy rating and TP of W42,000 momentum The release schedule for blockbuster titles is the most important variable in the valuation of game companies. Generally speaking, game stocks trade at high P/Es when frequent new releases provide sustained momentum. Shares of NCsoft, Netmarble (251270 KS/CP: W189,000), and Pearl Abyss (263750 KQ/CP: W196,700) have traded at average P/Es of 24x, 50x, and 14x, respectively, since their IPOs. Notably, expectations for blockbuster titles caused the valuations of Netmarble and Pearl Abyss to surge right after their IPOs (with P/Es reaching 80x and 200x, respectively). Kakao Games’ offering price implies a 2020F P/E of 19x; our target price implies a P/E of 30x. Notable stocks in 3Q20: Webzen Small/mid -sized game stocks to monitor in 2H20: Webzen and JoyCity and JoyCity The market is expecting both Webzen (069080 KQ/CP: W36,750) and JoyCity (067000 KQ/CP: W22,250) to deliver record revenue, backed by the solid performance of existing titles and the commercial success of new titles. Webzen has been successful in launching new titles every quarter. R2M has overc ome its initially weak market reception to become the fourth highest grossing app (based on Google Play and App Store data). Besides supporting Webzen’s earnings improvement, the commercial success of R2M proves the firm’s in-house game development capabilities. For JoyCity, increasing visibility on the global release schedules of five upcoming titles should provide steady momentum. JoyCity’s Pirates of the Caribbean and Gunship Battle: Total Warfare (key revenue drivers) are likely to continue rapid growth in 3Q20. Kakao Games’ Guardian Tales : Global daily revenue Source: Sensor Tower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. September 10, 2020 Games C O N T E N T S I. Industry overview 3 Game companies to display steady earnings in 3Q20 3 II. Key game trends and metrics 5 1. NCsoft 5 2. Netmarble 6 3. Pearl Abyss 9 4. Webzen 10 5. JoyCity 11 6. NHN 12 7. Neowiz 13 8. DoubleU Games 14 9. ME2ZEN 15 Key recommendations 16 NCsoft 17 Kakao Games 21 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 September 10, 2020 Games I. Industry overview Game companies to display steady earnings in 3Q20 Based on our analysis of major titles’ July and August revenue trends, we expect domestic game companies to display steady earnings in 3Q20. For NCsoft and Netmarble, game revenue in July and August held steady at 2Q20 levels. Meanwhile, at Webzen, JoyCity, NHN (181710 KS/CP: W79,600), Neowiz (095660 KQ/CP: W28,600), DoubleU Games (192080 KS/CP: W75,600), and ME2ZEN (950190 KQ/CP: W30,400), mobile game revenue exceeded the monthly averages recorded in 2Q20. We attribute Korean game companies’ sound revenue growth in July and August to: 1) an increase in time spent indoors (due to the pandemic); and 2) new titles that have performed strongly in Korea and abroad, such as Netmarble’s Seven Deadly Sins (global), Webzen’s MU Archangel (domestic), JoyCity’s Hero Ball Z (global), and Kakao Games’ Guardian Tales (global) . New title expectations are mounting, as game companies tend to concentrate the releases of long-awaited blockbuster titles in the fourth quarter. Expectations are also building for the potential IPO of Krafton, developer of PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds . Given the high visibility of earnings improvement in 3Q20, we believe attention should now turn to the success prospects of upcoming titles. Table 1. Major gaming players: Revenue outlook Company Major mobile games Revenue trend ∙ Lineage M (domestic) NCsoft = ∙ Lineage 2M (domestic) ∙ Marvel Contest of Champions (global) Netmarble ∙ Seven Deadly Sins (global) = ∙ Lineage 2: Revolution (global) ∙ Cookie Run: OvenBreak (global) Kakao Games ∙ The Legendary Moonlight Sculptor (domestic) - ∙ Guardian Tales (global) ∙ Black Desert (domestic) Pearl Abyss ∙ Black Desert (Japan) + ∙ Black Desert (global) ∙ MU Archangel (domestic) Webzen ∙ R2M (domestic) + ∙ MU Origin 2 (global) ∙ Pirates of the Caribbean (global) JoyCity + ∙ Gunship Battle (global) ∙ Hangame Poker (domestic) NHN = ∙ Hangame Sudda (domestic) ∙ Pmang New Matgo (domestic) Neowiz ∙ Pmang Poker (domestic) = ∙ Pmang Sudda (domestic) ∙ DoubleDown Casino Slots (global) DoubleU Games = ∙ DoubleU Casino: Vegas Slots (global) Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 September 10, 2020 Games Table 2. Global peer valuation table (Wbn, x, %) Revenue OP NP ROE P/E P/B OP margin Market cap 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F NCsoft (Korea) 17,431 2,599 3,358 951 1,410 747 1,074 26.7 30.1 23.2 16.1 5.5 4.3 36.6 42.0 Netmarble 16,217 2,573 2,885 262 382 272 350 5.8 7.0 58.8 45.8 3.2 3.0 10.2 13.3 Pearl Abyss 2,565 526 551 183 181 156 157 23.4 18.6 16.2 15.9 3.3 2.8 34.9 32.8 NHN 1,544 1,671 1,876 121 155 74 100 4.5 5.8 20.5 15.4 0.9 0.8 7.3 8.2 Com2Us 1,639 513 644 129 179 123 160 12.6 14.5 13.3 10.2 1.6 1.4 25.2 27.8 Webzen 1,319 265 302 82 110 66 90 16.7 19.3 20.2 14.7 3.1 2.5 31.0 36.5 DoubleU Games 1,384 666 692 204 224 148 165 20.4 19.1 9.2 8.0 1.7 1.4 30.6 32.4 WeMade 587 125 164 8 30 14 30 5.8 12.0 42.0 19.6 2.4 2.3 6.5 18.5 Activision 69,891 9,249 9,568 3,788 3,866 3,017 3,141 15.8 15.2 23.6 22.8 4.0 3.5 41.0 40.4 Blizzard (US) Electronic Arts 42,668 7,228 7,462 2,380 2,504 1,921 2,065 18.1 17.8 22.7 21.1 4.4 4.0 32.9 33.6 Take -Two 21,231 3,576 4,058 773 931 651 774 17.2 15.2 32.2 27.9 5.7 4.9 21.6 22.9 Interactive Zynga 10,629 2,634 3,209 259 499 429 544 8.3 17.0 26.7 23.7 4.6 4.0 9.8 15.5 Glumobile 1,426 629 689 8 65 68 98 20.3 19.8 20.5 16.4 3.1 2.7 1.2 9.5 Ubisoft (FR) 11,570 3,561 3,680 668 737 458 521 19.8 17.9 23.6 21.6 5.1 4.2 18.8 20.0 Nintendo (Japan) 85,277 16,217 15,595 5,187 5,080 3,809 3,740 20.5 18.3 21.0 21.1 4.0 3.6 32.0 32.6 Nexon 24,942 3,316 3,806 1,442 1,781 1,313 1,551 16.8 17.2 19.0 16.0 3.1 2.6 43.5 46.8 Square Enix 9,158 3,591 3,599 603 619 410 428 15.3 14.4 21.9 21.0 3.2 2.9 16.8 17.2 DeNA 2,600 1,359 1,407 165 161 131 125 5.4 5.1 20.1 20.8 1.0 1.0 12.1 11.5 Gungho Online 2,314 944 909 241 222 152 142 13.5 10.5 10.8 11.6 1.6 1.4 25.5 24.4 GREE 1,232 708 702 48 46 34 33 2.7 2.7 34.6 35.8 0.9 0.9 6.8 6.6 Tencent (China) 744,356 83,271 102,632 25,950 30,949 21,325 26,741 22.9 22.6 35.3 28.4 7.7 6.1 31.2 30.2 NetEase 75,193 12,621 14,587 2,979 3,480 3,012 3,392 20.8 19.7 23.4 20.8 4.7 4.1 23.6 23.9 Kingsoft 7,895 1,029 1,246 328 411 624 245 18.4 7.2 11.1 34.4 0.0 0.0 31.9 33.0 Youzu 3,080 868 1,005 188 239 192 235 19.0 19.5 16.1 13.4 2.8 2.4 21.6 23.8 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 September 10, 2020 Games II. Key game trends and metrics 1. NCsoft Figure 1. Lineage M : Domestic monthly revenue Figure 2. Lineage 2M : Domestic monthly revenue (Wbn) (Wbn) 120 120 100 80 80 60 40 40 20 0 0 8/19 10/19 12/19 2/20 4/20 6/20 8/20 11/19 2/20 5/20 8/20 Source: Sensor Tower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Source: Sensor Tower, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Figure 3.
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