Climatically Optimal Planting Dates COP Determinator (version 1) I. Savin, H. Boogaard, C. van Diepen, H. van der Ham EUR 22233 EN - 2007 The Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen provides researchbased, systems- oriented support to EU policies so as to protect the citizen against economic and technological risk. The Institute maintains and develops its expertise and networks in information, communication, space and engineering technologies in support of its mission. The strong crossfertilisation between its nuclear and non-nuclear activities strengthens the expertise it can bring to the benefit of customers in both domains. European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen Contact information Address: I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy E-mail: [email protected] Tel.: +39 0332 789173 Fax: +39 0332 789029 http://ipsc.jrc.ec.europa.eu http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu Legal Notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication. A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server http://europa.eu/ PUBSY 7094 EUR 22233 EN ISSN 1018-5593 Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities © European Communities, 2007 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged Printed in Italy Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC/JRC) Agriculture Unit & Alterra - Wageningen University and Research Centre CLIMATICALLY OPTIMAL PLANTING DATES (COP DETERMINATOR, version 1) by I. Savin, H. Boogaard, C. van Diepen, H. van der Ham Italy, 2007 CONTENTS Introduction................................................................................................ 3 Region of interest ...................................................................................... 5 Algorithm.................................................................................................... 8 Rules for winter crops............................................................................... 9 Rules for autumn sown crops ................................................................. 10 Rules for spring sown crops ................................................................... 12 “In-chain-sown” and other crops............................................................. 15 Validation.................................................................................................. 16 Winter wheat........................................................................................... 18 Spring wheat........................................................................................... 22 Potato ..................................................................................................... 25 Grain maize ............................................................................................ 29 Conclusion ............................................................................................... 32 References ............................................................................................... 33 Appendix .................................................................................................. 34 A. Description of tables storing data needed to estimate year specific sowing dates and initial soil moisture ..................................................... 34 B. Field observed sowing dates for winter wheat ................................... 43 C. Field observed sowing dates for spring wheat ................................... 48 D. Field observed sowing dates for potato ............................................. 50 E. Field observed sowing dates for grain maize..................................... 53 Introduction The Agriculture (former MARS) Unit within the Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC) of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Italy is responsible for the implementation of the actions MARS-FOOD (Crop Monitoring for Food Security), MARS-STAT (Agricultural Statistics in Europe), MARS-PAC (Support to the Common Agricultural Policy). Historically, the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS) has been developed in Europe around the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) (Supit, van der Goot, 2007). The CGMS is the combination of the WOFOST crop growth model and a statistical yield prediction module embedded in an information system storing data in a relational database. Nowadays the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS) is fully operational for the European countries (Genovese, Bettio, 2004; Lazar, Genovese, 2004; Micale, Genovese, 2004; Royer, Genovese, 2004). The decisions n°1445/2000/EC and 2066/2003/EC on the application of area frame survey and remote sensing techniques to the agricultural statistics for 1999 to 2007 of the European Parliament moved the MCYFS into the operational phase. The main customers of the system are DG-AGRI and EUROSTAT. Part of the operational service to run the MCYFS is outsourced through the MARSOP project (MARS-OPerational), started in the middle of 2000. The AGRIFISH unit of JRC supervises this project and concentrates on yield forecast analysis and synthesis of all information in bulletins. In the context of the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security initiative (GMES), JRC formed in 2001 the MARS-FOOD group in the MARS Unit of IPSC-JRC in Ispra (Italy). This action aims at supporting the European Union Food Security and Food Aid Policy through an improved assessment of the crop status in regions/countries stricken by food shortage problems. Accurate and timely information on crop status is needed to properly inform and direct European Food Aid, in order to prevent food shortages and consequent human suffering, and to avoid possible market disruptions due to un-necessary food aid distribution. DG AIDCO and RELEX are the main European Commission customers for this work. The FOOD action is focused on the development of methods, tools and systems for crop monitoring and yield forecasting in selected parts of the world. It is based on state-of-the-art input data issued from remote sensing sources and global meteorological models. Agro- meteorological and statistical modelling are core activities of the action, building on the existing knowledge and methods developed by the MARS project for Europe and by partner organizations for other parts of the world. The work is carried out in close collaboration with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and European and international partners. The geographical dimension of the Action is primarily developing countries where the population is affected by or vulnerable to food shortage problems. Four pilot areas are covered: Russia and Central Asia, the Mediterranean Basin, Eastern Africa and South America. Global coverage is envisaged in a later phase. In addition to the developing world, which represents the 3 primary scope of the Action, major grain producers such as Russia and Argentina are also covered. MARS-FOOD decided to have its agro-meteorological monitoring in Russia, Central Asia and the Mediterranean Basin based on an adapted version of the European CGMS, given the compatible (even if not similar) agro-phenological conditions. Substantial adaptation was nevertheless necessary to account for specific conditions, and components were added, which are also of use for European monitoring. The result is version 8.0 of CGMS which is now the common CGMS version for MARS-FOOD and MARS-STAT activities (Savin et al., 2004). The starting conditions are significant for the CGMS. Starting date and soil moisture content greatly affect the final result. A set of expert rules have been defined which estimate climatically optimal sowing date for different crops, and initial soil water content. This is called the Climatically Optimal Planting (COP) Determinator. The underlying report describes the first version of the COP determinator, and present results of its validation based on field observed crop sowing dates in Russia. We hope that this study will lead to the improvement of the COP determinator, and consequently – to improvement of the CGMS simulation of crop growth in general. 4 Region of interest The rules for the definition of climatically optimal sowing dates are regional. They were elaborated based on agronomical practice in the region of former Soviet Union, Central Asian, and non European Mediterranean regions. The map of the region where we planned to use the COP is shown in figure 1. Fig.1. Sub-national administrative mapping units of the region of interest This region includes near 30 countries, among which are big agricultural producers as Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Egypt. Main part of croplands is concentrated mainly in these countries (fig.2). Fig.2. Cropland patterns of the region of interest Many crops are under cultivation in the countries of the region of interest. The crop distribution and significance for the countries of the region is summarized in the table 1. Practically each country of the region has its own specific of crop cultivation. However, one can distinguish two main cultivations: one specific for countries of the former Soviet Union republics, and one specific for the Mediterranean and Middle East countries. 5 crop country wheat barley maize millet soya sorghum rice sunflower sugar beet sugar cane rape seed potato Afghanistan - - - - - Algeria