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Pennsylvania Turnpike/I-95 Proposed Interchange Traffic Study

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Pennsylvania Turnpike/I-95 Proposed Interchange Traffic Study 3(116</9$1,$ 78513,.( , 352326(' ,17(5&+$1*( 75$)),& 678'< 3(11$ 95 3(11$ 35(3$5(' )25 3(116</9$1,$ 78513,.( &200,66,21 83'$7(' %< '(/$:$5( 9$//(< 5(*,21$/ 3/$11,1* &200,66,21 -DQXDU\ PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE/ 1-95 PROPOSED INTERCHANGE TRAFFIC STUDY PREPARED FOR PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE COMMISSION UPDATED BY DELAWARE VALLEY REGIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION The Bourse Building. 111 South Independence Mall East Philadelphia, PA 19106-2582 January 2001 - This report is printed on recycled paper - Created in 1965, the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) is an interstate, intercounty and intercity agency which provides continuing, comprehensive and coordinated planning to shape a vision for the future growth of the Delaware Valley region. The region includes Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties as well as the City of Philadelphia, in Pennsylvania; and Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Mercer counties in New Jersey. DVRPC provides technical assistance and services; conducts high priority studies that respond to the request and demands of member state and local governments; fosters cooperation among various constituents to forge a consensus on diverse regional issues; determines and meets the needs of the private sector; and practices public outreach efforts to promote two-way communication and public awareness of regional issues and the commission. Our logo is adapted from the official DVRPC seal, and is designed as a stylized image of the Delaware Valley. The outer ring symbolizes the region as a whole while the diagonal bar signifies the Delaware River. The two adjoining crescents represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the State of New Jersey. DVRPC is funded by a variety offunding sources including federal grants from the U.S. Department of Transportation's Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and Federal Transit Administration (FTA) , the Pennsylvania and New Jersey departments of transportation, as well as by DVRPC's state and local member governments. This report was primarily funded by the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission. The authors, however, are solely responsible for its findings and conclusions, which may not represent the official views or policies of the funding agencies. Pennsylvania Turnpike 11-95 Proposed Interchange Traffic Study TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . v I. INTRODUCTION .................................................. 1 II. THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE 11-95 INTERCHANGE STUDY AREA ..... 3 1. Existing Highway Facilities and Land Use ....... ~ . 3 2. Existing Traffic Volumes ........................................... 6 III. ALTERNATIVES FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE 11-95 INTERCHANGE 11 IV. TRAVEL FORECASTING PROCEDURE. ... .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .. 15 1. Socio-Economic Estimates ......................... 15 2. Supplemental Development Surcharge. 19 3. Regional Travel Simulation Models. 19 4. Focused Simulation Process. 21 5. Validation of the Highway Assignment ................................ 21 6. Future Trip Table Preparation . 25 V. TRAFFIC VOLUME FORECASTS .................................... 27 1. Analysis of 2025 Traffic Forecasts 27 2. Analysis of 2005 Traffic Forecasts 43 APPENDICES A. 24 HOUR MACHINE TRAFFIC COUNTS. A-1 ii Pennsylvania Turnpike / 1-95 Proposed Interchange Traffic Study LIST OF MAPS 1. Pennsylvania Turnpike/l-95 Proposed Interchange Location Map ............ 4 LIST OF FIGURES 1. Current Traffic Counts .............................................. 8 2. Build Alternative Highway Network Modifications ......................... 12 3. DVRPC Travel Simulation Process .................................... 16 4. Area Wide Traffic Impacts Current Traffic Counts and 2025 No-Build Average Daily Traffic Volumes ..... 30 5. PA 413 and Proposed Pennsylvania Turnpike Interchange with 1-95 Current Traffic Counts and 2025 No-Build Average Daily Traffic Volumes ..... 31 6. US 1 Business and US 1 Expressway Interchanges with 1-95 Current Traffic Counts and 2025 No-Build Average Daily Traffic Volumes ..... 32 7. US 1, Rockhill Rd and Proposed Pennsylvania Turnpikell-95 Interchanges Current Traffic Counts and 2025 No-Build Average Daily Traffic Volumes ..... 33 8. US 13/Pennsylvania Turnpike and US 130/New Jersey Turnpike Interchanges. Current Traffic Counts and 2025 No-Build Average Daily Traffic Volumes ..... 34 9. Area Wide Traffic Impacts 2025 No-Build and Build Alternative Average Daily Traffic Volumes .......... 37 10. PA 413 and Proposed Pennsylvania Turnpikell-95 Interchanges 2025 No-Build and Build Alternative Average Daily Traffic Volumes .......... 38 11. US 1 Business and US 1 Expressway Interchanges with 1-95 2025 No-Build and Build Alternative Average Daily Traffic Volumes .......... 39 12. US 1, Rockhill Rd and Proposed Pennsylvania Turnpikell-95 Interchanges 2025 No-Build and Build Alternative Average Daily Traffic Volumes .......... 40 13. US 13/Pennsylvania Turnpike and US 130/New Jersey Turnpike Interchanges 2025 No-Build and Build Alternative Average Daily Traffic Volumes .......... 41 14. Proposed Pennsylvania Turnpikell-95 Interchange 2025 No-Build and Build Alternative Average Daily Traffic Volumes .......... 42 Pennsylvania Turnpike / 1-95 Proposed Interchange Traffic Study iii LIST OF FIGURES (Continued) 15. Area Wide Traffic Impacts 2005 No-Build and Build Alternative Average Daily Traffic Volumes .......... 46 16. PA 413 and Proposed Pennsylvania Turnpikell-95 Interchanges 2005 No-Build and Build Alternative Average Daily Traffic Volumes .......... 47 17. US 1 Business and US 1 Expressway Interchanges with 1-95 2005 No-Build and Build Alternative Average Daily Traffic Volumes .......... 48 18. US 1, Rockhill Rd and Proposed Pennsylvania Turnpikell-95 Interchanges 2005 No-Build and Build Alternative Average Daily Traffic Volumes .......... 49 19. US 13/Pennsylvania Turnpike and US 130/New Jersey Turnpike Interchanges 2005 No-Build and Build Alternative Average Daily Traffic Volumes .......... 50 20. Proposed Pennsylvania Turnpikell-95 Interchange 2005 No-Build and Build Alternative Average Daily Traffic Volumes .......... 51 LIST OF TABLES 1. Comparison of 1993 Report and Current Traffic Volumes .................. 7 2. Current and Future Population in the Study Area ......................... 17 3. Current and Future Employment in the Study Area ....................... 18 4. Study Area Development Surcharge ................................... 20 5. Pennsylvania Turnpike I 1-95 Model Calibration Accuracy .................. 23 7. Calibration Root Mean Square Deviation (RMS) by Volume Group ........... 25 7. A Comparison of 2025 Average Daily Traffic Volumes Under the No-Build & Build Alternatives (ADT) ........................... 28 8. A Comparison of 2005 Average Daily Traffic Volumes Under the No-Build & Build Alternatives (ADT) ........................... 44 Pennsylvania Turnpike / 1-95 Proposed Interchange Traffic Study v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The US Congress has redesignated 1-95 to follow a route via the Pennsylvania Turnpike Bridge across the Delaware River thence to proceed northward via the New Jersey Turnpike Extension. This rerouting will bring all of 1-95 up to interstate standards, but requires the completion of a connection between the Pennsylvania Turnpike (1-276) and 1-95 in Bristol Township, Bucks County. This report presents an update of the forecasts reported in Pennsylvania Turnpike /1-95 Proposed Interchange Traffic Study, DVRPC, 1993. Year 2005 and 2025 traffic forecasts are presented for a No-Build (do nothing) and a Build Alternative. These forecasts were prepared at the request of the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission to provide traffic forecasts for its consultants, who are preparing environmental impact and preliminary engineering studies for the proposed interchange. In preparation for projecting future traffic volumes, traffic counts were collected throughout the study area. Municipal and county planners were contacted to identify the significant proposed land use developments within the corridor. DVRPC's focused traffic simulation model was then used to prepare 2005 and 2025 traffic volume estimates for study area roadways under both alternatives. Two alternatives were investigated: A No-Build Alternative; and a Build Alternative which assumes the construction of a new 55 mile-per hour interchange between the Pennsylvania Turnpike and 1-95. Under the No-Build Alternative, traffic growth in the project study area is projected to be heavy. On the segment of the Pennsylvania Turnpike where the interchange would be located, traffic is forecast to increase by about 45 percent over existing volumes, while 1-95 at the same location is projected to grow by about 26 percent. The traffic on PA 413/US 13, Street Rd/US 1 and Woodhaven Rd/US 1 - are also projected to sustain significant traffic increases over current volumes. The construction of a high type full interchange between 1-95 and the Pennsylvania Turnpike will have a significant impact on corridor traffic volumes as well as travel patterns. Year 2025 traffic volumes of 57,200 vehicles are forecast to use the interchange, with the highest volumes of 11,100 projected for the ramps that carry the redesignated 1-95. Ramps carrying other movements in the interchange are forecast to handle between 4,400 and 8,400 daily vehicles. Traffic volumes on the turnpike increase by approximately 26 and 33 percent, west and east of the interchange, respectively, over the No-Build volumes. On 1-95, construction of the interchange leads to traffic increases of 26 and 16 percent,
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