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19July 2021 India Daily

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19July 2021 India Daily INDIA DAILY July 19, 2021 India 16-Jul 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Sensex 53,140 (0.0) 1.5 10.8 Nifty 15,923 (0.0) 1.5 10.9 Contents Global/Regional indices Dow Jones 34,688 (0.9) 4.2 1.8 Daily Alerts Nasdaq Composite 14,427 (0.8) 2.8 3.7 Results FTSE 7,008 (0.1) (0.1) 0.1 Nikkei 27,723 (1.0) (4.3) (6.6) HDFC Bank: Covid 2 bites into performance Hang Seng 28,005 0.0 (2.8) (3.8) L&T Infotech: Choosing the right battles to win the talent war KOSPI 3,244 (1.0) (0.7) 1.4 Value traded – India HDFC AMC: Inflows buoy near term, long-term risks unchanged Cash (NSE+BSE) 667 683 394 92,42 Derivatives (NSE) 93,029 30,372 Results, Change in Reco 1 Just Dial: White knight may set it right Deri. open interest 10,492 7,446 8,438 Company alerts Forex/money market Reliance Industries: Another step Change, basis points Sector alerts 16-Jul 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Rs/US$ 74.6 (1) 52 (24) ESG: Sustainability disclosures to evolve over time 10yr govt bond, % 6.2 2 17 12 Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels: Staying together for longer Net investment (US$ mn) 14-Jul MTD CYTD FIIs (164) 1,153 23,258 (1,239 MFs 39 (6,926) ) Top movers Change, % Best performers 16-Jul 1-day 1-mo 3-mo TATA in Equity 1,278 1.8 11.9 43.6 IPRU in Equity 627 0.7 8.5 39.0 BHFC in Equity 807 (0.3) 10.3 37.6 UPLL in Equity 837 0.1 (0.1) 36.9 PIEL in Equity 2,351 3.2 6.4 36.7 Worst performers ADSEZ in Equity 688 (1.6) (2.6) (8.9) SRCM in Equity 28,070 (1.3) (0.5) (8.9) INDUSTOW in Equity 241 2.7 (4.4) (7.2) BRIT in Equity 3,441 (0.6) (5.5) (6.6) MMFS in Equity 162 0.8 (4.5) (5.8) [email protected] Contact: +91 22 6218 6427 For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES. REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. ADD HDFC Bank (HDFCB) https://ultraviewer.et/en/own Banks JULY 18, 2021 load.html RESULT Sector view: Attractive Covid 2 bites into performance. HDFC Bank reported 16% yoy earnings growth on CMP (`): 1,522 the back of 18% yoy operating profit growth. Asset quality ratios showed deterioration Fair Value (`): 1,650 and the bank has reported slippages of 2.5% of loans. The retail portfolio has taken BSE-30: 53,140 most of the impact when we look at the segmental profits. We expect a recovery in business performance in the next few quarters as the situation improves from a macro standpoint. Maintain ADD with Fair Value unchanged at Rs1,650. HDFC Bank Stock data Forecasts/valuations 2021 2022E 2023E CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 1,522/1,650/ADD EPS (Rs) 56.4 62.6 72.6 52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 1,641-993 EPS growth (%) 17.9 11.0 15.9 Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 8,414/112.9 P/E (X) 27.0 24.3 21.0 QUICK NUMBERS ADTV-3M (bn) (Rs/US$) 11.4/0.2 P/B (X) 4.2 3.7 3.2 Shareholding pattern (%) BVPS 363.4 410.9 469.7 NII up 9% yoy; PAT Promoters 21.1 RoE (%) 16.6 15.9 16.2 increased 16% yoy; FPIs/MFs/BFIs 51.0/10.6/3.0 Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.8 1.0 Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M NII (Rs bn) 649 731 820 PBT up 15% yoy Absolute 2.5 6.6 43.3 PPOP (Rs bn) 574 635 697 Rel. to BSE-30 1.3 (2.1) (1.7) Net profits (Rs bn) 311 345 400 GNPL and NNPL ratios up ~15 bps Operationally weak despite strong earnings growth and ~10 bps qoq to ~1.5% and ~0.5% HDFC Bank reported 16% yoy earnings growth on the back of (1) 18% yoy revenue growth, (2) 18% yoy operating profit growth, but offset by (3) ~25% yoy growth in provisions. NII grew Maintain ADD with 9% yoy (third weakest growth since the global financial crisis) while non-interest income grew FV at Rs1,650 ~55% yoy (low base) with fee income growing ~75% yoy and supported by higher income (unchanged) from forex. Loans grew ~14% yoy with retail loan growth at 10% yoy (1% qoq decline). NIM declined 10 bps qoq to 4.1% Asset quality ratio showed marginal deterioration with gross NPL ratio increasing 15 bps qoq to 1.5% while net NPLs increased ~10 bps qoq to 0.5% of loans. Restructured loans are at 0.8% of loans while the bank has disbursed Rs330 bn under ECLGS. Retail takes the most impact; but we expect a faster recovery as well We have broadly a few issues at hand in the retail portfolio. (1) Loan growth: growth trends have started to accelerate but largely driven by business banking. The share of unsecured loans is declining and could probably continue till we have clarity on the credit card operations. Also, EMI products where principal amortization is high in subsequent years need a much stronger M B Mahesh, CFA disbursement growth to start contributing to overall growth. (2) Revenue growth: even if the retail portfolio accelerates, it would probably take a bit longer for NII growth to contribute as the share of high-yielding assets is showing a decelerating trend and the high-yielding fixed-rate Nischint Chawathe book is being re-priced at a lower interest rate. (3) Profitability: this quarter showed that the provisions are still running quite high. Given the nature of slippages, we should expect a faster recovery although timelines are a bit challenging as we are also dependent on the recovery Abhijeet Sakhare environment on existing NPLs. (4) We are still unsure of the cost involved in the transformation of the bank from a technology perspective. We understand that HDFC Bank is likely to spend more to improve its infrastructure but its impact on cost and timing is still not well-defined. Ashlesh Sonje Maintain ADD: a steady performer We maintain ADD rating with FV at Rs1,650 (unchanged). At our FV, we value the bank at 3.4X Dipanjan Ghosh book and 22X FY2023E EPS for RoEs at 15% levels and 15% CAGR. We keep our thesis unchanged. We believe that the near-term outlook for the large banks remains quite strong. [email protected] Contact: +91 22 6218 6427 For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. HDFC Bank Banks Exhibit 1: HDFC Bank – quarterly performance March fiscal year-ends, 1QFY21 – 1QFY22 (Rs mn) (% chg.) 1QFY22 1QFY22E 1QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22E 1QFY21 4QFY21 2022E 2021 (% chg.) 2023E Income statement (Rs mn) Interest income 304,830 311,637 303,780 304,236 (2.2) 0.3 0.2 1,321,349 1,208,750 9.3 1,499,812 Interest on advances 235,927 242,272 240,374 238,116 (2.6) (1.8) (0.9) 1,011,334 948,345 6.6 1,137,700 Interest on investments 64,931 65,355 55,976 61,663 (0.6) 16.0 5.3 283,815 232,311 22.2 333,203 Other interest 3,971 4,011 7,430 4,456 (1.0) (46.6) (10.9) 26,200 28,094 (6.7) 28,908 Interest expense 134,740 133,600 147,126 133,034 0.9 (8.4) 1.3 590,423 559,787 5.5 679,967 Net interest income 170,090 178,037 156,654 171,202 (4.5) 8.6 (0.6) 730,925 648,964 12.6 819,845 Non interest income 62,885 56,803 40,753 75,939 10.7 54.3 (17.2) 266,933 252,049 5.9 296,995 - fee income 38,854 39,037 22,307 50,233 (0.5) 74.2 (22.7) 190,781 161,693 18.0 218,309 - exchange income 11,987 6,549 4,366 8,793 83.0 174.6 36.3 30,480 24,384 25.0 34,138 - sale of invts. 6,010 5,000 10,867 6,551 20.2 (44.7) (8.3) 15,000 38,670 (61.2) 10,000 Non treasury income 56,875 51,803 29,886 69,388 9.8 90.3 (18.0) 251,933 213,379 18.1 286,995 Total income 232,975 234,841 197,407 247,141 (0.8) 18.0 (5.7) 997,859 901,013 10.7 1,116,840 Op. expenses 81,604 86,304 69,115 91,813 (5.4) 18.1 (11.1) 362,933 327,226 10.9 419,880 Employee cost 27,656 27,860 25,134 26,789 (0.7) 10.0 3.2 118,926 103,648 14.7 138,504 Other cost 53,949 58,444 43,980 65,024 (7.7) 22.7 (17.0) 244,007 223,578 9.1 281,377 Operating profit 151,370 148,536 128,293 155,328 1.9 18.0 (2.5) 634,926 573,786 10.7 696,959 Provisions and cont. 48,308 47,876 38,915 46,937 0.9 24.1 2.9 170,892 157,197 8.7 159,316 PBT 103,062 100,661 89,378 108,391 2.4 15.3 (4.9) 464,034 416,590 11.4 537,643 Tax 25,766 22,454 22,791 26,526 14.7 13.0 (2.9) 118,793 105,425 12.7 137,637 Net profit 77,296 78,207 66,586 81,865 (1.2) 16.1 (5.6) 345,241 311,165 11.0 400,007 Tax rate (%) 25.0 22.3 25.5 24.5 269 bps -50 bps 53 bps 25.6 25.3 29 bps 25.6 Op.profit excl treasury gains 145,360 143,536 117,426 148,777 1.3 23.8 (2.3) 619,926 535,116 15.8 686,959 EPS (Rs) 14 28 12 15 (50.7) 15.3 (5.8) 63 56 11.0 73 Key balance sheet items (Rs bn) Total deposits 13,458 13,460 11,894 13,351 (0.0) 13.2 0.8 15,319 13,351 14.7 17,516 Savings deposits 4,261 3,274 4,035 30.2 5.6 4,553 4,035 13 5,119 Current deposits 1,857 1,501 2,122 23.7 (12.5) 2,298 2,122 8 2,627 Term deposits 7,340 7,120 7,194 3.1 2.0 8,468 7,194 18 9,770 CASA ratio (%) 45.5 40.1 46.1 532 bps -66 bps 44.72 46.12 -139 bps 44.22 Investment 4361.3 4,615 3793.5 4437.3 (5.5) 15.0 (1.7) 5,171 4,437 16.5 5,923 Loans 11,477 11,475 10,033 11,328 0.0 14.4 1.3 12,878 11,328 13.7 14,725 Corporate and others 6,242 5,283 6,053 18.1 3.1 Retail credit 5,235 4,750 5,276 10.2 (0.8) Housing loans 723 627 702 15.3 2.9 Car loans 838 811 844 3.3 (0.7) Loan against sec 18 18 18 — (2.7) Personal loans 1,198 1,116 1,186 7.4 1.0 Two wheeler 86 96 93 (10.3) (7.6) Credit cards 604 547 647 10.5 (6.6) Commercial vehicles 271 278 280 (2.5) (3.1) Business Banking 735 606 709 21.3 3.6 Others 762 653 797 16.7 (4.3) Asset quality (Rs bn) Gross NPL 171 138 151 24.1 13.3 196.2 150.9 30.0 209.1 Net NPL 55 33 46 67.3 20.4 65.0 45.5 42.7 59.1 Gross NPL (%) 1.5 1.4 1.3 11 bps 15 bps 1.5 1.3 17 bps 1.4 Net NPL (%) 0.5 0.3 0.4 15 bps 8 bps 0.5 0.4 10 bps 0.4 PCR (%) 68 76 70 -827 bps -189 bps 66.9 69.8 -294 bps 71.7 Capital adequecy (%) CAR 19.1 18.9 18.8 20 bps 30 bps - Tier- I 17.9 17.5 17.6 40 bps 30 bps - Key calculated ratios (%) Yield on advances 8.3 9.6 8.6 -135 bps -32 bps 8.4 8.9 -56 bps 8.2 Yield on investment 5.7 5.6 5.5 6 bps 17 bps 5.9 5.6 35 bps 6.0 Yield on funds 7.2 8.2 7.4 -103
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