2014-2015 Annual Assessment - Jewish People Policy Institute ANNUAL ASSESSMENT The Situation and Dynamics of the Jewish People 5775 Jewish Demography 70 Years aer the Shoah "Drivers" Aecting the Israel-U.S. Relationship Israel-Diaspora Dialogue on the Use of Force Video Games against De-Legitimization of Israel THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel) Ltd. (CC) www.jppi.org.il Givat Ram Campus • P.O.B. 39156 Jerusalem 9139101 [email protected] Tel: 972-2-5633356 • Fax: 972-2-5635040 ISBN 978-965-7549-08-7 Partners and Members Board of Directors and Professional About JPPI of the General Meeting: Guiding Council: The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) is an independent professional policy planning think tank Lester Crown and Charles Goodman Co-Chairs incorporated as a private non-profit company in Israel. The mission of the Institute is to ensure the thriving on behalf of Crown Family Philanthropies Stuart Eizenstat of the Jewish people and the Jewish civilization by engaging in professional strategic thinking and planning Dennis Ross William Davidson Foundation on issues of primary concern to world Jewry. Located in Jerusalem, the concept of JPPI regarding the Jewish Associate Chair people is global, and includes aspects of major Jewish communities with Israel as one of them, at the core. Nathan and Frances Kirsh Leonid Nevzlin JPPI’s activities are action-oriented, placing special emphasis on identifying critical options and analyzing their on behalf of the Kirsh Family Foundation Members of the Board potential impact on the future. To this end, the Institute works toward developing professional strategic and Irina Nevzlin Kogan Elliott Abrams Yohanna Arbib long-term policy perspectives exploring key factors that may endanger or enhance the future of the Jewish on behalf of Nadav Foundation Irwin Cotler People. JPPI provides professionals, decision-makers, and global leaders with: Alisa Robbins Doctoroff and Linda Mirels Wendy Fisher • Surveys and analyses of key situations and dynamics on behalf of UJA Federation of New York Sami Friedrich Misha Galperin • “Alerts” to emerging opportunities and threats Charles Ratner Eric Goldstein • Assessment of important current events and anticipated developments as Chairman of the JAFI Board of Governors Dan Halperin • Strategic action options and innovative alternatives Steve Hoffman Ratner Family Alan Hoffmann • Policy option analysis Natan Sharansky David Kolitz • Agenda setting, policy recommendations, and work plan design Vernon Kurtz as Chairman of the JAFI Executive Morlie Levin JPPI is unique in dealing with the future of the Jewish people as a whole within a methodological David Silvers Bernard-Henri Lévy framework of study and policy development. Its independence is assured by its company articles, as Chairman of the JAFI Budget Glen Lewy with a board of directors co-chaired by Ambassadors Stuart Eizenstat and Dennis Ross - both have and Finance Committee Judit Bokser Liwerant Isaac Molho served in the highest echelons of the U.S. government, and Leonid Nevzlin in Israel - and composed Paul E. Singer Steven Nasatir of individuals with significant policy experience. The board of directors also serves as the Institute’s on behalf of the Paul E. Singer Foundation Yaakov Neeman Professional Guiding Council. Avi Pazner Rani Trainin Jehuda Reinharz as Deputy Chairman of JAFI Doron Shorer Jerry Silverman The Judy and Michael Steinhardt Foundation Ted Sokolsky Alan Solow Our thanks to UJA Federation of New York, Michael Steinhardt The Jewish Federations of North America, the Jewish Federation of St. Louis, Aharon Yadlin the Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Chicago, the Jewish Federation of Cleveland, President and Founding Director Arlene Kaufman and Sandy Baklor, Avinoam Bar-Yosef Art Samberg and Marc Utay, Alex Grass z"l and Jack Kay z"l Projects Coordinator for their support. Ita Alcalay ANNUAL ASSESSMENT 2014-2015 5775 PROJECT HEAD Dr. Shlomo Fischer coNTRIBUtorS Reuven Amar, Avinoam Bar-Yosef, Steven M. Cohen, Chaya Ekstein, Dan Feferman, Sylvia Barack Fishman, Avi Gil, Inbal Hakman, Michael Herzog, Dov Maimon, Steven Popper, Uzi Rebhun, Shmuel Rosner, John Ruskay, Suzanne Rutland, Ohad Shpak, Noah Slepkov, Shalom Salomon Wald, Einat Wilf EDITORS Barry Geltman Rami Tal Copyright © The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel) Ltd. (CC) Jerusalem 2015/5775 JPPI, Givat Ram Campus, P.O.B 39156, Jerusalem 9139101, Israel Telephone: 972-2-5633356 | Fax: 972-2-5635040 | www.jppi.org.il All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without express written permission from the publisher. Printed and Distributed by the Jewish People Policy Institute Graphic Design: Lotte Design Cover Design: Shlomit Wolf, Lotte Design ISBN 978-965-7549-12-4 Table of Contents Click on chapter titles to see Foreword by Stuart Eizenstat and Dennis Ross 5 PART 1: Suggested Policy Directions, Integrated ‘Net’ Assessment Recommended Policy Directions 11 Selected Indicators of World Jewry – 2014-2015 18 2014-2015 Integrated ‘Net’ Assessment 21 PAR T 2: Five Dimensions of Jewish Well-being Geopolitics The Geopolitical Challenges Facing Israel's New Government 35 The Triangular Relationship: Jerusalem, Washington, and the North American Jewish Community 59 "Drivers" Affecting the Israel-U.S. Relationship 63 U.S. College Campuses and Israel De-legitimization – In Perspective 73 An Integrative Measurement of European Anti-Semitism 95 Looking East: New Opportunities in Asia 103 Demography Jewish People Demography, 2015 115 Bonds Within and Between Communities Israel-Diaspora Dialogue 2015 127 Identity Formation and Expression Jewish Identity and Identification in America Today 137 Material Resources Jewish People Ways and Means, 2014-2015 165 PAR T 3: Featured Articles Violence and Racism between Population Groups in Israel 179 Australian Jewry 197 Political Turmoil in Europe and its Implications for the Jewish People 215 Policy Opportunities for Video Games and Interactive Entertainment 229 Foreword The Annual Assessment continues to be the global jihadists along its northern border also has flagship of the JPPI. Nowhere else is an annual to be a cause for concern. While both Hezbollah stocktaking of the Jewish world done. Apart and Hamas may be deterred in the near-term, from being a unique offering and picture their growing rocket capabilities and practice of of the state of Israel and the Diaspora, the embedding their rocket launchers and fighters annual assessment presents both a baseline in civilian areas means the next conflict will once for comparison and a series of variables to again face Israel with terrible dilemmas as it judge the direction of change. Each year the defends its citizens. Both Hezbollah and Hamas assessment identifies emerging problems and don’t simply seek to use civilian populations as opportunities—and makes recommendations shields; they want to produce civilian casualties for responding to both. on their own side as a way of stigmatizing Israel on Never has this task been more important. The the world stage and denying Israel the right of self- geopolitical picture is mixed but daunting. The defense. fact that the leading Arab states and Israel have a Here we see how what Hezbollah and Hamas common view of the threats they both face is an seek fits neatly with those who are trying to de- important development. Translating shared threat legitimize Israel. De-legitimization needs to be perceptions into overt cooperation will prove very seen for what it is: no less an existential threat to difficult until the conflict with the Palestinians can the Jewish state than the Iranian nuclear program. be fundamentally defused or resolved—neither Israel needs to mobilize all its assets to deal with of which seems likely for the foreseeable future. the strategic danger posed by the de-legitimization The emergence of radical Islamists—Sunni and movement. Making sure that there is a coherent Shia—who may be fighting each other in Iraq response, bureaucratically and politically, is and Syria, absorbs Israel’s most virulent enemies necessary but is not a substitute for policies that in other conflicts. But the reality that Israel now permit Israel to go on the offensive and take it off has Hezbollah, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the defensive. THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 5 This year’s Annual Assessment, even by JPPI’s high its ancient “Silk Road.” But China also perceives standards, is exceptionally diverse, fascinating and Israel as an island of stability in the Middle East at important. It includes a review of world Jewish a time when it is facing separatist pressures in its demographic trends over the last 70 years since western region from Muslims, some radical. The the end of WWII. It notes that the worldwide Assessment notes the very positive turn in India’s Jewish population has been steadily expanding relationship with Israel since the election in May and now numbers 14.3 million people. If we 2014 of Narendra Modi as prime minister. While include those who identify as partially Jewish and India has long had a strong military relationship immigrants to the State of Israel who are not with Israel, India kept Israel at arm’s length, afraid halachically Jewish but have qualified under the that public demonstrations of support would Law of Return (and do not profess any other anger its large Muslim population. This is changing religion) we are approaching the number of Jews in a major way. in the world on the eve of WWII. It also notes that for the first time in memory the majority of adult children of intermarried couples between the ages We are breaking new ground in the present of 18-30 identify as Jewish. The Assessment also Annual Assessment to recommend creative use notes that despite this overall growth, the Jewish of video games to tell Israel’s story in positive "middle" (non-Orthodox Jews who have strong ways.