1 UNEP/GEF/START/TWAS: Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)
AF42: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION CAPACITY IN THE LIMPOPO BASIN OF SEMI-ARID LAND SOUTHERN AFRICA: THE CASE OF EASTERN BOTSWANA.
Progress Report: July-December 2002
Opha Pauline Dube, Department of Environmental Science, University of Botswana, Private bag 0022, Gaborone, Fax: 267 58097, Tel: 267 355 2513: Email:[email protected]
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT ...... 3
B TASKS PERFORMED AND OUTPUTS PRODUCED...... 4
INTRODUCTION...... 4 NETWORKING, LINKS AND COMMUNICATING THE PROJECT...... 4 IPCC Expert Group Meeting ...... 4 UNDP/GEF/SMG Conference ...... 5 WATER SECTOR...... 5 Water Supply Component ...... 5 Appointment of Graduate Research Assistants...... 5 Data Collection ...... 5 Network Analysis ...... 5 Data Analysis...... 6 Water Balance Study...... 7 Water Demand Component...... 8 Introduction ...... 8 Water Use/Demand in Kgatleng site...... 9 Domestic water uses ...... 9 FOOD SECTOR...... 12 Crop Production Component...... 12 Forest and Forest Products ...... 12 Reconnaissance...... 12 Data Collection ...... 12 Further Discussion ...... 15 Livestock/Wildlife Component ...... 15 Introduction ...... 15 Reconnaissance Survey-Bobirwa Site...... 15 Information from Secondary sources ...... 16 Equipment purchase...... 19 Research assistants...... 19 Participation in other related research projects ...... 19 INFLUENTIAL FACTORS: LAND COVER/USE, LAND DEGRADATION AND FIRE...... 19 Research Assistant ...... 19 Satellite data...... 19 Topographic maps...... 20 Land cover land use...... 20 Introduction ...... 20 Reconnaissance trip- Bobirwa and Tuli Block...... 21 Land degradation...... 22 Introduction ...... 22 Landscape features and land degradation...... 22 AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 2 Land degradation and rainfall ...... 23 Wildfire Component...... 24 Introduction ...... 24 Current Fire Management System...... 24 Conclusion...... 26 VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ...... 26 Tourism Potential Component ...... 26 Tourism Resource assessment ...... 26 Tourist Profile to Cultural Sites in Botswana...... 27 Tourist attraction in the Limpopo Basin ...... 28 Tourism Facilities - Bobirwa & Tuli Block ...... 29 An Overview of Eco-tourism Potential...... 30 Potential impact of Climate Change on nature-based tourism ...... 31 Vulnerability and Adaptation Capacity ...... 31 Recruitment of MSc Students ...... 31 Policy Review and Analysis ...... 32 Meeting Stakeholders: North East and Bobirwa ...... 32 C. DIFFICULTIES ENCOUNTERED AND LESSONS LEARNT ...... 33
D. CONNECTIONS WITH PREPARATION OF NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS UNDER UNFCCC...... 34
E. DESCRIPTION OF TASKS TO BE PERFORMED IN THE NEXT SIX-MONTH PERIOD...... 35
F. ANTICIPATED DIFFICULTIES IN THE NEXT SIX-MONTH PERIOD...... 36
REFERENCE ...... 36
APPENDICES ...... 39
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 3 AF42: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION CAPACITY IN THE LIMPOPO BASIN OF SEMI-ARID LAND SOUTHERN AFRICA: THE CASE OF EASTERN BOTSWANA.
Progress Report: July-December 2002
A. ABSTRACT
The focus for the period between July and December 2002 has been on understanding current and past trends in food and water resources in the Limpopo basin. An assessment of existing data on water showed that annual rainfall over the past 28 years has a declining trend but there is no specific trend in the runoff coefficients. Statistics on water demand in the Kgatleng site indicate that the domestic sector accounts for 50% of water demand and that out of this, the private water connections account for more than 70 % of water use. Livestock and wildlife constitute 38% of the total water use. Dryer conditions will greatly increase the current water demand in these sectors. Data from the forestry component indicate that the non-timber forest product, Phane caterpillar, is important for food security particularly, over periods of low crop yields. However, there are indications that Phane reproduction is closely linked to climatic variables, especially rainfall, temperature and relative humidity. An assessment of wildlife statistics showed that the population has been declining due to various land use disturbances including livestock production which, combined with climate variability has had a role in land degradation processes in the area. The remaining wildlife is in protected areas and private farms where it is used to support tourism but this has limited benefit to local communities. Apart from wildlife, a variety of cultural heritage sites exist, providing potential ecotourism assets for adaptation option in the basin. An assessment of the role of institutions is ongoing. However, indications with respect to wildfires show that current management structures are ineffective and as a result where the risk of fires is increased due to climate change, the basin will be vulnerable. In addition, a preliminary analysis of existing policies shows that these have little bearing on impacts of climate change particularly, the need to minimise vulnerability and enhance adaptation capacity. Although, more work is required on current and past factors affecting food and water resources in the basin, the focus in the next six months will be to link this work with climate and socio- economic scenarios so as to define likely impacts of climate change on water and food and set the scene for in-depth assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation strategies.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 4
B TASKS PERFORMED AND OUTPUTS PRODUCED.
Introduction The AF42 has made some progress although the project operated under difficult conditions due to the unstable atmosphere that prevailed at the University of Botswana as was the case in the previous period. Progress was made particularly with respect to the following objective:
• To establish past and present status and factors influencing food production, water supply and demand in the Limpopo basin.
Information on the above objective is being used to address the second objective which is
• To establish past and recent responses to climate variability and extreme events in the food and water sector.
There has been limited progress on the crop, land cover land use and some aspects of vulnerability and adaptation. It is hoped that these components will make progress in the next phase. The overall aim in next phase is for investigations to show greater interaction with IPCC SRES based climate and socio-economic scenarios. This will help to define likely impacts of climate change on water and food and set a framework for assessing results of past and current status in these sectors with the aim of determining the degree of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation capacity in the basin.
The report was produced with the backdrop of famine over Southern Africa due to abnormal climatic patterns. The SADC Food Security Programme in Harare noted that Southern Africa will experience a total cereal deficits of about 5.4 million tones which will put 14 million people at risk of starvation over the 2002/03 period (http://www.sadc-fanr.org.zw/). The same unit predicted low rainfall conditions over the 2002/03 season due to El Niño in September 2002. Botswana recorded high temperatures of 380C-410C which resulted in a number of heat related ailments. Much of the country experienced widespread crop failure and shortage of fodder leading to livestock mortality in some parts of the Limpopo Basin. This added another stress in the Limpopo basin where some areas had already undergone foot and mouth outbreaks, which are controlled by eradicating all cattle in the affected area. These conditions provide AF42 with a typical experimental situation for assessing impacts and responses to extreme events.
NETWORKING, LINKS AND COMMUNICATING THE PROJECT
IPCC Expert Group Meeting Factoring Out Direct Human-Induced Changes in Carbon Stocks and GHG Emissions from those due to Indirect Human-Induced and Natural Effects. The AF42 PI attended the above IPCC meeting in September 2002 in Geneva and was one of the rapporteurs for the break up group on Direct Human-Induced Change. The meeting addressed key factors in climate change studies relevant to AF42 investigations.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 5 UNDP/GEF/SMG Conference A Poster of the AIACC_AF42 project was presented by M.B.M. Sekhwela at the UNDP/GEF Small Grants Programme (SGP) Fourth Biennial Conference on “Sharing experience on conservation of the global environment” held in Gaborone, 11th –12th November 2002. The PI of AF42, who also co-ordinates the Southern Africa Fire Network (http://www.safnet.net/) gave a presentation on “Developing Capacity for Operational Fire Monitoring and Management Systems in Southern Africa”. This presentation covered the fire component of the AF42 project. Important contacts were made during this meeting with a local group, the Serorome Valley Farmers’Association (SVFA). The focus of SVFA is on mitigating climate Change on livestock production. A link with this group provides AF42 with an outlet to a relevant stakeholder where to tease out adaptation and vulnerability strategies identified in the project and also get feed back.
WATER SECTOR B. P. Parida and Sennye Masike
Water Supply Component B.P. Parida
Appointment of Graduate Research Assistants One of the post-graduate students in the University of Botswana (UB) has been appointed as a research assistant under this project and is also using this study to enhance his qualification such that capacity building can be achieved as envisaged.
Data Collection Most of the climatic data such as Rainfall and Evaporation have been obtained from the Department of Meteorological Services (Table 1). Some of the rainfall data and flow data were secured from the Department of Water Affairs in the Ministry of Mineral Resources. Soil information was obtained from the Department of Crop Production, Ministry of Agriculture.
Table 1: Data collected from various Government Departments
Data Description Rainfall Monthly data from 37 rain gauge stations within the catchment covering 28 years from 1971 Evaporation At monthly intervals over the same period as rainfall – for Gaborone, Francistown and Mahalapye Flow Data Monthly flow data-huni gauging station located at the outlet of the catchment over 28 years from 1971 Soil Data The latest soil map of the study catchment
Network Analysis The flow at the outlet being a part of the input to a catchment, first of all the adequacy of rain gauges and evaporation stations were verified for their numbers as per the guidelines laid out by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The study revealed that one rain gauge was observed per 2300 km2 (approx) of area as against WMO recommendation of one per 1500 – 10000 km2. Where as for one evaporation station per every 28500 km2 has been observed as against a recommended one for every 30000 km2. Hence the network of rain gauges and the evaporation stations were found to be adequate.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 6
The network of rainfall, flow and evaporation stations have schematically been shown in Fig. 1. It can be seen that the location of rainfall stations are a bit skewed to the west of the catchment around Serowe- Shoshong areas. It may be due to installation of some additional stations around 1968-1970 by the Department of Water Affairs to undertake some studies in the form of a pilot project.
Figure 1
y = -4.2574x + 457.3
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Annual Avearge Rainfall (mm) 0
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Figure 2. Variation of annual rainfall for the period between 1971- 1998 along with long term average (shown in dashed pink line) and its upper and lower limits (shown in yellow and blue dashed lines) and the overall trend (in solid black line).
Data Analysis First of all the catchment was digitised and using GIS ARCVIEW software, contours of annual rainfall for different years were drawn and for each year the annual rainfall values for the catchment were computed using the isoheytal method. Using these values, the long-term average annual rainfall for the basin was found to be 398 mm with a standard deviation of 119.5 mm. Assuming rainfall values one standard deviation over the long term average to represent flood years and the values one standard deviation below the long term average value AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 7 to represent drought years, it was found that the catchment experienced 18 years of normal rainfall with 6 flood and 4 drought years. The overall trend however, showed a marginal decline in terms of the rainfall magnitude over the 28 years as shown through a solid linear black line in Fig. 2. In this figure, the long-term average rainfall over the 28years has been shown through the pink line, while the yellow and blue lines represented the upper and lower rainfall boundaries to be termed as flood and drought years of rainfall respectively.
Water Balance Study This well established tool, which shows the transformation of rainfall to runoff after it undergoes losses through evaporation and soil infiltration has been picked up for this study. Its choice lies in its usefulness in being able to integrate the effect of climate and soil to yield runoff that is reasonable from a catchment.
Using the monthly climatic information on rainfall and evaporation and the soil characteristics, water balance study was undertaken for all the 28 years using the multicell approach as envisaged in some of the current literature. To identify the cells of equal rainfall, equal evaporation and equal field capacity, contours of long term rainfall and evaporation were super imposed on digitized soil distribution map of the catchment using the GIS – ARCVIEW software as has been shown in Figure 3. Areas of each cell were thus estimated digitally and subsequently used to estimate the flow emerging from each and hence the total catchment. For this computation, based on some of the previous studies in Botswana, it has been assumed that 50% of the available moisture content appears at the runoff. However, a proper calibration of this parameter is being undertaken separately such that the above assumption is established for building future scenario.
Figure 3.
Some typical tables of water balance carried out for a wet year (1980), a normal year (1988) and a dry year (1993) are given in Appendix A. Using the results of the study runoff coefficients for different years have been computed and plotted in Figure 4. It can be seen from this plot that there is no specific trend in the runoff coefficients suggesting that the rivers and streams have not experienced any significant reduction in flows which may be attributed
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 8 to integrated effect of climate and land use (soil). However, this hypothesis need further investigation which will be undertaken in the next six months phase along with other aspects.
y = 0.0055x + 0.4528
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 Runoff Co-efficient Runoff 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Figure 4. Variation of runoff co-efficient in the Limpopo basin for the period 1971-1998
Water Demand Component Sennye Masike
Introduction Nearly all the factors identified, that influence water, have been found to be positively related to climate change. For instance, drought is one of the factors identified as a major cause of water scarcity. Frederick and Major (1997) have noted that warmer temperatures will alter hydrologic processes, precipitation and the intensity and frequency of droughts. Kulshreshtha et al (1996) remarked that climate change will have socially significant effects also affecting human behaviour, which in turn will alter the water supply-demand balance. Kulshreshtha et al (1996) concluded that climate change can affect three major aspects of water, its availability, demand and quality.
Climate change directly affects the water sector by positively influencing water uses. For instance, on the demand side, irrigation water will be affected by increase in temperature. Irrigation in this instance includes both for lawns, vegetable gardens and large-scale food production. Boland (2001) highlights that requirement for weather sensitive uses such as lawns and garden irrigation and make-up water for air conditioners, industrial use will increase with climate change. Increase in temperature may also affect bathing with the quest for cooling leading to increases in water demand, although the overall effect of this may be minimal.
Other uses that are less discussed in literature are livestock and wildlife water requirement. In Botswana, these two uses combined constitute 38 % of total water use (SMEC, WCPU & SG AB, 1990). With increase in climate change, water requirement by both wildlife and livestock may increase substantially. This will have serious implications given the role of this sector in food production in the country. Livestock and wildlife depend heavily on groundwater. However, projections from IPCC indicate that underground water resources will be affected immensely especially in the arid and semiarid regions (Frederick, 2001). But again uncertainty in this area is extremely high due to “relationship between sustenance of physiological functions for various types of animals and their need for water under different climates” (p141,Water Resources Management In the face of Climatic/hydrologic Uncertainties)
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 9 Climatic change will indirectly affect water demand by increasing the need for cooling systems or air conditioners, hence more water required for an increase in hydropower generation. All in all the demand for water may increase substantially. Thus, for countries already under water stress such as Botswana, this may result in a crisis.
Water Use/Demand in Kgatleng site Considerable progress has been made on water use/demand in the Kgatleng site located within the southern part of the Limpopo basin. Data has been collected on water consumption in the main village, Mochudi. Data collected reveal that the village has experienced accelerated increases in water use and demand over the years (Fig. 5). The most important sector responsible for high increase in water demand has been the domestic sector. Just like in other countries, the domestic sector is the major consumer and accounts for well over 50% of total water demand in Mochudi. Again, increase for the domestic sector has increased rapidly relatively to other sectors. It is then followed by institutional, commercial and lastly the industrial sector, whose increases has been at a slower pace. This indicates the generally low industrial activities in the villages of Botswana.
800000 Total dom Total inst 400000 total comme
meters total indust 0 water use in cubic
ear 991 993 995 998 000 Y 1 1 1 1 2 years
Figure 5. Water demand by various sectors in Mochudi. Dom = Domestic, Inst. = Institutional, Comme. = Commercial and Indust. = Industrial. n 1200000 900000 overall water 600000 demand 300000 Cubic meters Cubic 0 total water demand i
ear 991 993 995 998 000 Y 1 1 1 1 2 years
Figure 6. Total water demand in Mochudi village
Domestic water uses In the country domestic water uses can be divided into private connections (PC) and public stand pipes or standpipes (SP). Private connection can further be divided into yard and house connection. The distinction between private and public is that private has defined property rights while standpipes have undefined property rights. One would expect abuse and waste at the public connections. However, analysis reveals that the major consumer is the private connection accounting for more than 70 % of water uses at the domestic level (Fig. 7). Private connection has experienced rapid increase in water demand and this has in turn affected overall water demand in the village. An increase in private connection (both yard and house)
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 10 has been responsible for overall increase in water demand. The current trend in water demand at the domestic level causes concern given indications that climate change will have severe impacts on water demand, especially at the domestic sector due to the need for cooling and lawn watering.
800000
PC 400000 SP meters meters
0 stand pipes in cubic private connection vs r a 1 3 5 8 0 99 99 99 99 00 Ye 1 1 years1 1 2
Figure 7. Water demand by private connection and public connection. PC = Private Connections and SP = Standpipes (Public)
Institutional water use is made up of schools, hospital, forces and administration (Fig. 8). This is second most important sector after domestic (Fig. 5.) Schools are the major consumers; therefore one would assume that the major users are for hygienic and agricultural activities.
120000 90000 Schools Hospital 60000 Force 30000 admin sectors in the 0 water use by various water government institution institution government
Year 1991 1993 1995 1998 2000 years
Figure 8. Water demand by the institutional sector. Force = police and the army and Admin = administration.
Between 1990 and 2001, water demand by various activities under institutional has remained constant, with the exception of water demand by schools. Again, the survey reveals that just like for domestic water demand, water at the institutional level is used for hygienic purposes, drinking and bathing. Thus, implications of climate change on water demand in this sector needs to be monitored
Literature reveals that irrigation is one of the sectors likely to be heavily affected by climate change. However, in Mochudi, irrigation account for less than 1 % of water use under the commercial sector, from 20% in 1990 (Fig. 9). The decrease in demand for water by the irrigation sector could be due to increase in aridity resulting in less irrigation activity. Under commercial sector, the most important activity, which has influenced water demand, is the construction sector and shops. With projected climatic change, shops through the need for cooling and other water requirements may influence overall demand for water in this sector.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 11
140000 120000 100000 80000 Shops 60000 banks 40000 hotels cubic meters 20000
water demand by water 0 irrigat commercial sector in constru ear 991 993 995 998 000 Y 1 1 1 1 2 years
Figure 9: Industrial water demand. Irrigat. = Irrigation and Constru = construction.
In Mochudi village, industrial water use/demand can be categorised into three main activities; abattoir, brick moulding and livestock (Fig. 10). The livestock sector will be adversely affected by climate change because where climate change result in increased aridity, livestock will depend totally on under ground water while there will be low recharge. Assessment of industrial water use between 1990 and 2001 shows that the livestock share has increased from 20% to 60 %. This may be attributed to increases in temperatures and therefore increases in daily intakes of water. However, it could also be due to increases in livestock numbers (Refer to the sub-component on livestock and wildlife production).
12000 9000 abbatoir 6000 B/moulding livestock 3000
cubic meters by cubic meters 0 industrial sector sector industrial water demand in demand water
Year 1991 1993 1995 1998 2000 years
Figure 10: Industrial water use in Mochudi village
Attempts were also made to assess the impacts of the variables of climatic change, especially temperature on irrigation and livestock sectors. This was done by observing months, which correspond to highest water use. From the analysis November has the highest consumption
4000 3000 2000 1000 0 water consumption consumption water april june aug october december february Months
Figure 11. Water use in the irrigation sector.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 12 value while December January February and March correspond with the lowest consumption. However, these results are inconclusive, for instance, months, which are generally hot have lowest consumption.
FOOD SECTOR Ben Acquah, M.B.M Sekhwela and B. Kgabung
Crop Production Component Ben Acquah
There was limited progress over this phase. The tasks attempted included entry of relevant data from agricultural survey reports and farm management data into the computer for analysis. But this is yet to be completed.
Forest and Forest Products Mogodisheng Sekhwela
This report covers the project activities undertaken so far and preliminary analysis of data compiled from secondary sources. As highlighted in the last report, the Forest Products component will draw information from related ongoing project on the target non-timber forest product, Phane caterpillar (larvae of Imbrasia belina moth) which is an important food resource for large parts of the Limpopo Basin.
Reconnaissance Further familiarisation and preliminary assessment trips were taken to the remaining case study areas in the North-east District and Bobirwa Sub-District including the commercial farms area of the Tuli Block. In both Districts, Colophospermum mopane, a host species of the Phane caterpillar is predominant. Further, caterpillar export figures show substantial harvests from these Districts.
Data Collection Out of the many different forest products for different uses, the Phane caterpillar comes out as the major non-timber forest food product in the entire basin, covering over 70 % of the area in which the substrate host species is found. Hence this subcomponent will focus on the caterpillar as a non-timber forest product with reasonable secondary data that can be compiled and used to develop product occurrence trends and possible past production levels that can be related to climatic factors in the past. Consequently the relationship can subsequently be used to assess the impact of climate changes on the product, and hence its vulnerability to possible climate changes. This will provide the socio-economic sector of the AF42 project with information to use to assess vulnerability of Limpopo communities to climate change impacts with respect to non-timber food resources.
There are generally no production figures on forest products available in Botswana, except for timber in Government forestry reserves located outside the Limpopo basin. There are however, export records of Phane caterpillar at the Government’s Customs and Excise Department, which are unfortunately also aggregates them with other exported different types of small protein sources. The original records are then destroyed every three years owing to lack of storage space and lack of computerisation of such records. In the absence of production and yield measurements, export figures are used in this study as proxy for
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 13 production of Phane caterpillar in the whole of the Limpopo basin where the host C. mopane occurs. Nearly all the exported Phane is harvested in the basin.
The aggregated annual export sales of three areas within the Limpopo basin show variations between the sites reflecting spatial differences in the production of the caterpillar (Fig. 12). Francistown and Selibe-Pikwe are urban centres, which provide markets for their hinterlands, whereas Bobonong as a sub-regional centre is both a productive area and a market place for export buyers. It is however, important to note that the sales figures do not reflect flows within the internal markets of which there are no information. For instance not all of the produce is exported, some is sold within and outside the Limpopo catchment in the country and could be later exported through other outlets, while some is consumed.
Phane Exports inStudy Areas
400
350
300
250 Bobonong Francistown 200 Selibe Phikwe 150 Dry Phane (tons) Phane Dry 100
50
0 1999 2000 2001 2002 Production Season
Figure 12. Phane caterpillar exported from three main centres in the north-eastern part of the Limpopo basin (source: Botswana Government, 2002).
Phane is a favoured high protein content delicatessen in both urban and rural areas. The Phane caterpillar offers a viable alternative ‘food security’ in the period of failed crop production. The caterpillar is known to compete with arable agricultural crops for labour during its harvesting for both immediate consumption and sale for income, which is later used to buy food and other necessities. The basin is characterised by a poor performance of arable agriculture, with common crop failure that is depicted by low area harvested than planted found in all the three regional study centres (Fig. 13). The crop production sector will be elaborated under the crop production component of this study.
Some areas such as Bobonong appear to be in ‘perpetual drought’ for arable agriculture, with the lowest areas harvested than planted and high percentage of failed cropped areas (Figure 13). Such areas have perhaps depended on Phane sales for income to buy food, a strategy they could have evolved with frequent arable crop failure as shown by the trend in Figure 13. This however, will need to be investigated carefully with detailed analysis of both Phane production figures and flows, as well as the influence of climatic factors as the caterpillar is also known to be affected by climatic changes as highlighted in the previous report.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 Bobonong Dryland Farming 14 30
25
20
15
Area (x1000 ha) (x1000 Area 10
5
0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Cropping Year
Total Area Planted Total Area Harvested
Francistwon Dryland Farming
60
50
40
30
Area (x1000 ha) 20
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0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Cropping Year
Total Area Planted To tal Are a Harveste d Kgatleng Dryland Farming
40
35
30
25
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15 Area (x1000 ha) 10
5
0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Cropping Year
Total Area Planted Total Area Harvested
Figure 13. Total planted and harvested areas in Bobonong, Francistown (North East District) and Kgatleng study sites in the Limpopo basin (Source: Botswana Government, 1985-1997).
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 15
Further Discussion The above is a preliminary overview analysis of the accumulating data, and it only sheds some light on what other consideration needs to be made as investigations progress in this study. For instance, there is a clear trend of less than optimum crop production in some parts of the Limpopo basin which appear to have been part of the production system for sometime (further investigation will be carried out under the crop production sub-sector). At the same time, the area has viable alternative natural non-timber forest products that provide food and income for further food acquisition. It is however, not clear yet how such products are affected by the same unfavourable climatic conditions responsible for common crop failure.
Other parallel investigations by related studies show that the emergence and growth of the Phane caterpillar is closely linked to climatic variables, particularly rainfall, temperature and perhaps relative humidity as well (Sekhwela and Ditlhogo, 2003; personal communication). This is also corroborated by the harvesters who link the occurrence and production of the caterpillar to rainfall (Ntseane, 2003; personal communication). It is likely that timing of rainfall is more influential for both crop and Phane production than total amount received in a season. These highlighted observations are still preliminary results. The ongoing UNDP/GEF Small Grant Program study on Mophane woodland and Phane caterpillar will support greatly the work of the Limpopo project as regard detailed analysis of socio-economic aspects, the biology and ecology of the Phane caterpillar.
Livestock/Wildlife Component Bothepha Kgabung
Introduction In addition to continuation of some of the activities that were initiated in the previous reporting period a number of other tasks were commenced to fulfil requirements of the livestock-wildlife component, which to assess past and current trends and influencing factors in order to determine likely impacts of climate change, the degree of vulnerability of this sector to climate change and adaptation strategies that can be applied in the Limpopo Basin.
Reconnaissance Survey-Bobirwa Site A reconnaissance survey was undertaken to the Bobonong case study site in October 2002 for purposes of familiarisation with the site and to initiate consultation with local stakeholders. The survey revealed that both wildlife conservation and utilisation and livestock rearing are among the main socio-economic activities in the area.
Wildlife: Wildlife is mainly practised in the freehold land tenure of the Tuli Block. This is mostly in the form of privately owned and commercially managed game ranches. Tourism is the main activity in these ranches (Refer to the Eco-tourism section). The Tuli private game ranches and the Mashatu game reserve are in fact the concentration centre of wildlife in the eastern part of Botswana. The surrounding communal areas are left devoid of or scantly populated with wildlife species.
According to the Department of Wildlife and National Parks (DWNP) officials and lodge management representatives, the Tuli block, notably Mashatu Game Reserve is providing refuge to a large herd of the African Elephant. It is also home to species like Impala, Wildebeest, Eland, Zebra, Baboon and predators such as Lion, Leopard, Cheetah, Jackal, Hyena, Eared Fox, and the African Wild Cat, as well as a habitat for a wide diverse species of Birdlife. The elephant community in this area are known as the ‘Relic Herds of Shashe’ and are the last living testament to the great herds that once populated the meandering Limpopo
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 16 Valley (The current Mashatu Game Reserve Brochure). In terms of wildlife distribution and composition, the Tuli Block is part of ecological zone formed by Zimbabwe and South Africa, lying adjacent to the Limpopo River, which is the boundary between these countries. Wildlife is therefore a trans-boundary resource. Migration between the countries by different species for instance, elephants are common.
Within the DWNP there is a unit called the Problem Animal Control Unit. It was reported from this Unit that there are problems caused by wildlife on other land uses. Included in this were elephants, which are reported to have increased quite significantly. To address this a fence demarcating wildlife (private ranches) and livestock areas has been erected.
Livestock: Unlike wildlife which is concentrated in the freehold land tenure system, livestock rearing takes place in both communal lands and privately owned farms. These private livestock farms in the Tuli Block lie in the same area with the game ranches in the area bordering the Limpopo River. Communal lands are in the drier parts, further from the river, where the range resource was observed during the time of the survey, to be in relatively poor condition. In communal lands livestock rearing is in the form of the cattle post system and mixed farming. As is the case with the rest of the country, livestock management in communal areas falls under subsistence production while in the freehold tenure system, that is for private farms, it is supposed to be commercially based.
Information from Secondary sources A review of literature, statistics as well as consultation with relevant Departments was conducted and the details of this work follows below.
Wildlife: There is evidence that wildlife resources in the country have generally dwindled over time. The main causes of these changes are a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural factors which have contributed to, among other things, the decline in rangeland condition and productivity, habitat fragmentation, disruption and ecological changes hence ultimately affecting the abundance and distribution of the wildlife population (e.g. Campbell, 1971; Cooke, 1983; Perkins and Ringrose, 1996; Williamson & Williamson, 1985a & b) (Table 3). Table 3 excludes Kgatleng and Southeast Districts because generally these have less insignificant wildlife resources.
Table 3: Percent Change in Wildlife Population in Botswana, 1987-1991
Species Chob Centra Ghanz Kgalaga Kwenen Ngamilan Souther Overal e l i di g d n l Elephant -19 107* 92* 34* Zebra -70 -6 -24 -27 Hippo -7 52 45 Giraffe 28 -9 25 -100 36 27 Eland 28 -71 109 -8 -76* -15 6 Kudu 61 -26 161* -13 -4 67* + 58* Sitatunga + 16 17 Gembok 390 -42 14 40* 225* 28 385 -19 Roan -57 22 -21 Sable 5 -95 -12 -13 Waterbuck -84 -40 -42 Lechwe 89 125* 125* Reedbuck + 36 37 Tsessebe -2 -15 -17 AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 17 Hartebeest -60 -63 -34* 149* -30 217 -35 Wilderbeest 319 -59 167 8 2795* 3 + 11 Impala 120 -48 9 7 Springbok 65 -50 29 157 -50 134* 5 Buffalo -56 + -46* -46* Ostrich -71 10 -10 113* 49* -6 39 8
(Source: Bonifica, 1992) NB: % Change = N(1991)/N(1987) –1).100% - When N(1987) = 0, + indicates an increase - * indicates that the change is statistically significant - Areas for which no comparison can be have been omitted.
The three AF42 case study sites are on a general note, no exception with regard to the downward trend in the wildlife resource in Botswana. Limpopo basin falls in the eastern margin of Botswana, an area, which has for a long time been the concentration of human, and livestock populations. This being due to for instance, the relatively better rainfall patterns and more fertile soils when compared to the western Kalahari Sandveld part of the country (Campbell & Child, 1971).
Bonifica (1992) and DWNP surveys of 1989-1991 show that of the three sites, Bobirwa still has significant wildlife populations and is traditionally one of the key wildlife habitats in the country (World Bank Supervision Mission, 1986) (Table 4). The area has both water dependent and desert species. The habitat is Riverine woodland along the streams and predominantly mopane woodland outward. However, as with the rest of the eastern margin of the country, the animal communities found in Bobirwa are just remnant species and populations of what existed previously notably in the early 19th century (Campbell & Child, 1971).
This inventory survey also did not cover Kgatleng District. Wildlife resources in Kgatleng are very limited probably due to encroachment and competition with livestock leading to ecological changes in the area (Bonifica, 1992; Moleele, 1994 & 1998). Further, in contrast to the other study sites, all of Kgatleng wildlife is managed in communal lands where livestock rearing is dominant. There is no freehold land in Kgatleng.
Table 4: Wildlife Population Estimates for Bobirwa (Includes Tuli Block) and NorthEast District Study Sites, 1989-1991.
Species Bobonong Case Study Site (CT = Central Masunga Case District relevant wildlife blocks/areas) Study Site (1 wildlife block = North East) CT 27 CT 28 CT 29 CT 30 NE 1 Elephant - 193 - - - Zebra - 67 25 - - Warthog - 66 160 122 73 Giraffe - 121 - - - Eland 10 840 9 - - Kudu 458 115 333 293 374 Bushbuck - 51 - - - AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 18 Gemsbok---34- Wildebeest 121 475 888 6212 - Impala 1732 3591 2197 12725 419 Duiker 113 8 35 13 31 Steenbok 138 8 22 70 70 Ostrich 1261 120 88 76 - (Source: Adopted from Bonifica, 1992)
CT 27 = Covers Communal Lands of Bobonong Sub-District CT 28 = Northern Tuli Private Game Reserve CT 29 = Northern Tuli Farms CT 30 = Southern Tuli Farms NE 1 = North East District
Livestock: As in the rest of the country, the main livestock reared in the Limpopo Basin are cattle, sheep, goats and donkeys. Livestock husbandry was until the recent past decades concentrated in the eastern part of Botswana because of the relatively favourable climatic conditions (Cooke, 1985, Ministry of Agriculture 1993 & 2002; White, 1993). Presently livestock is however, found in large numbers almost everywhere in the country, including the drier Kalahari Sandveld. This has been made possible by access to underground water by the advent of the borehole technology. This has been accompanied by a drastic increase in livestock populations, particularly cattle, although declines are experienced following drought periods (Fig. 14; Appendix B).
Cattle Figures
3.5
3 Millions 2.5
2
1.5
Cattle figures 1
0.5
0
39 70 93 1934 19 1947 1954 1957 1965 19 1975 1980 1985 1990 19 Years
Cattle Figures
Figure 14. Trends in the national herd. (Source: adapted from White, 1993 & MOA, 1993)
There are also changes realised with regard to a number of developments in traditional verses commercial livestock holdings, which will be investigated over the next phase. Whether these changes are due to the system of management adopted or to other potential causes such as AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 19 climate change is still to be determined. From the wildlife and livestock statistics above it can be hypothesised that where the population of the latter is high, that of the former is low. This, however remains to be confirmed.
Equipment purchase A Proline Laptop costing P18 385.00 was purchased in November 2002 to be used for, among other things, data processing and analysis. This laptop is used primarily in the Food sectors, that is Wildlife/Livestock, Crops and Forestry.
Research assistants A BSc degree holder (Mr. Bakang Baloi) was employed in December (for the Livestock- Wildlife, Crops and Forestry components of the project) to provide temporary assistance in various research related activities particularly data collection and processing. Most of the data is available as hard copies.
Participation in other related research projects The researcher (Bothepha Kgabung) has also actively participated in other research projects: MAPOSDA and SACUDE SLUSE which in addition to having comparable goals with AF42 in terms of undertaking research to promote sustainable use of environmental resources, could indirectly be of mutual benefit to one another in terms of learning from the findings of either or just providing information that could give insights about some of the research problems, relationships, or hypotheses this study is trying to address.
INFLUENTIAL FACTORS: LAND COVER/USE, LAND DEGRADATION AND FIRE Reuben Sebego and O. P. Dube
Research Assistant A Cambridge Certificate Research Assistant, Ms Boitshwarelo Katholo, was recruited after attempts to secure someone with a diploma qualification did not succeed. As a result there was need to first train the assistant on basic operations such as using a computer. However, the assistant is catching up fairly quickly and has been useful in collecting climate and fire data set, and in the processing of some of the data. The assistant has also been useful in day to day co-ordination of the project, for instance up keeping of receipts and making follow-ups on payments as necessary. It is hoped that the assistant will get to a level where she can help with GIS and remote sensing data.
Satellite data Landsat ETM+ data have been secured through links with the Southern Africa Fire Network (Table 5). Attempts to secure historical data from the Miombo Network at the University of Virginia through the AF38 AIACC project (Contact Paul Desanker) has not succeeded so far although attempts are ongoing. Limitation of the current Internet service has made it difficult to search for leads on historical data identified through for instance, contacts from the UN Office of Outer Space Argency (OOSA). The pace to assemble satellite data is expected to increase now that the University wide GIS and remote sensing laboratory set out under the Education for Democracy and Development Initiative (EDDI) program in the Department of Environmental Science is now up and running. However, to take full advantage of the software and hardware provided there is need for an appropriate technician and effort to find one is ongoing. The EDDI program is being executed by USAID. AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 20
Table 5: Landsat ETM+ images acquired so far Site Path/Row Date Season Kgatleng 172/077 21-01-02 Wet Bobirwa Sub-District & parts 171/075 11-09-02 Dry of North East District 11-01-01 Wet 23-08-01 Dry Parts of North East District 172/074 21-01-02 Wet 02-09-02 Dry
Topographic maps Topographic maps were acquired through the Environmental Information Systems Education and Training Sub-Program (SETES) based at the University of Botswana. However, the Surveys and Mapping Department has been slow in delivering the maps. Those that have been delivered (Table 6 & Appendix C) are not in a useable condition, for instance, they lack details of the co-ordinate systems and/or metadata to indicate specific location of areas. The research assistant under the Water Supply component is making a follow-up with the suppliers with respect to this data.
Table 6: Digital topographic maps acquired through the SETES program from the Department of Surveys and Mapping (The map format need to be adjusted).
Site Sheet Scale Main settlement Kgatleng C2D51 1:50 000 Mochudi Bobirwa Sub-District 2127D4 1:50 000 Selibe Phikwe D3C42 1:50 000 Serule B3D51 1:50 000 Bobonong D2B44 1:50 000 Tsetsebjwe D2B55 1:50 000 Mathathane North East District D3C55 1:50 000 Francistown D3A52 1:50 000 Masunga D3D13 1:50 000 Mapoka Republic of Botswana N/A 1:150 000 N/A
Land cover land use Reuben J. Sebego
Introduction This component relies on spatial data in the form of satellite images, maps and aerial photographs, which is verified through fieldwork where possible. The component involves inventorying of vegetation cover types, which is the major cover in the area and the identifying different land uses for the cover types. Against this background it is essential to have the spatial data in place to address the landcover and land use component of the Limpopo Basin as noted below.
The project resolved to acquire maps that are already in digital form in order to use spatial data that has the authority over land boundaries. In addition using data from one common source helps to instil a control measure on the spatial framework. However, acquiring digital topographic maps from Government sources has resulted in delays as noted above (Appendix C).
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 21 Reconnaissance trip- Bobirwa and Tuli Block In order to prepare for air photo and satellite image interpretation, a reconnaissance trip was made in October 2002 to the Bobirwa District and the Tuli Block study site.
Preliminary findings suggest the following: • Land use in Bobirwa sub-District is mostly under communal land tenure with mixed agricultural farming as the main land uses. • Mopane woodlands dominate vegetation in Bobirwa sub-District, which is the major component of the hardveld vegetation. Since this trip was made towards the end of the dry season, much of the area was heavily overgrazed (Fig. 15). This could possibly be a result of the poor rains received from the 2001/2002 wet season. The condition of the land cover, especially natural vegetation will have implications on satellite classification. A close look at figure 15 shows that much of the understory or herbaceous cover is void and as a result the soil signal will dominate in the dry season image.
• A quick survey of the area shows that much of the arable lands have not been cultivated for more than one growing season. This also could be a result of the low rainfall.
• In the Tuli block ranches, a significant number of farmers are now engaged in game ranching in contrast to the past, when ranches were almost purely for livestock production. The area is a well deserving tourist destination with diverse wildlife populations (See Wildlife/Livestock and the Eco-tourism components of this report).
Figure 15: Bobirwa, October 2002: Mophane woodland devoid of herbaceous cover except for a few dry mophane leaves.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 22
Land degradation Opha P. Dube
Introduction Land degradation has the potential to reduce the capacity of the land to support crop, livestock, wildlife and veld products as well as the supply of water. This could increase vulnerability of Limpopo Basin communities to climate change, more so if climate change may further accelerate land degradation (IPCC, 2001). From the field assessments of September – October 2002, Bobirwa (includes Tuli Block farms) and the North East District sites have been subjected to excessive grazing, wood harvesting as well as cultivation activities. This was also observed in Kgatleng (Refer to Progress Report 1). As a result bush encroachment, one of the main indicators of land degradation is predominant in all the three sites.
The dominant encroacher species in the Kgatleng are microphylus species such as Acacia species, Dichrosytachys ceneria but also the broadleaved Grewia species. However, Bobirwa and the North East District are mainly regions of Mophane woodland. High densities of this species occur at about 2-metre height and heavily disturbed in the vicinity of settlements and water sources. In addition to bush encroachment Bobirwa and North East District show stronger signs of sheet and rill erosion with visible gully erosion along nearly all drainage lines and in the proximity of settlements in the North East District. These two sites are susceptible to soil erosion, due to physiological characteristics, more so with intensification of land uses.
Landscape features and land degradation While parts of western Kgatleng, stating from Mochudi, has marked hill ranges, compared to the other two sites, Kgatleng has relatively less drainage lines, large areas of nearly flat land with intrusions of the Kalahari sands in some cases (Fig. 16a). Bobirwa and the North East District have complex geological formations, a dense drainage network, greater areas of sloping land, with kopjes of the type of Matopo systems of Zimbabwe in different parts of the area (Fig. 16b&c). Geologically, Bobirwa zone falls under the Limpopo Mobile Belt formed by volcano-sedimentary sequences and granitoids which have undergone complex deformation and metamorphosis and are composed of gneisses and migmatites rock types. The structure is overlain by the Karoo volcanic rock with basaltic lavas in the Bobonong area and parts of the Tuli block farms. The North East District falls under the Francistown Complex of granitoids, gneisses, metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks. These geological complexities are captured on the satellite images and have a role in the vulnerability of the area to land degradation.
Bobirwa soils are generally thin and rocky and as a result are highly vulnerable to erosion when subjected to intensive land uses, for instance, it is believed that the past heavy grazing account for most of the currently observed land degradation features (Mcleod, 1992). The North East District has deep well-developed soils but suffers from shortage of land, which has lead to high population density and intensive mixed land use systems over limited land. As a result both sites tend to have limited perennial understory cover, particularly during periods of low rainfall such as the 2002/2003 season (See Fig. 15). This further makes the area to be vulnerable to soil erosion over the wet seasons.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 23
Bobonong
(a). Bobonong
Mochudi Francistown
(b). Mochudi (c). Francistown
Figure 16: Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus: 21st January 2002. A. Bobonong - Bobirwa- Tuli Block site, b. Mochudi- Kgatleng site and c. Francistown - North East District.
Land degradation and rainfall Literature shows that significant changes on the landscape in semi-arid lands due to land degradation processes occur subsequent to periods of below average rainfall. Preliminary results from the water supply section above showed that the Limpopo basin part of Botswana experienced 18 years of normal rainfall, 6 flood and 4 drought years with a marginal decline in rainfall over a period of 28 years. Holmgren et al (2001) and Holmgren and Scheffer (2000) note that that inter-annual variability in rainfall are strongly linked to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in many arid lands such as in Botswana and that these events have significant ecological and economic consequences. These observations on ENSO are in line with ecological theories where semi-arid lands are classed under disequilibrium systems subject to high spatial and temporal variability due largely to rainfall.
Mochudi (Kgatleng site) annual rainfall pattern over 78 years clearly shows the high variability in rainfall over time (Fig. 17). The rainfall coefficient of variability was 33% in Francistown (North East District) and in Mochudi and 44% in Bobonong village. A
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 24
1000
800
600
400 Rainfall(mm)
200
0 1915 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 Years
Rainfall Mean
Figure 17. Annual rainfall of Mochudi village, Kgatleng site. combination of the use of disequilibrium theorems as well as other complementary semi-arid ecosystem theorems for instance the state and transition, with an assessment of El Nino and La Nina events and spatial models of land use gradients could provide a basis for assessing land degradation in the semi-arid Limpopo catchment area (Dube and Pickup, 2001) Satellite data provides the spatial and temporal dimension of the land degradation problem. However, this requires careful selection of satellite data dates, that is images need to cover sufficient time scale to capture normal, above average and below average rainfall periods for proper assessment of land degradation trends to be analysed. Difficulties in acquiring historical satellite data are a major constraint in this approach.
Wildfire Component Opha Pauline Dube
Introduction Uncontrolled fires destroy a number of natural resources that are usually needed for immediate use during the dry season, such as wild berries, medicinal plants, thatching grass and livestock feed. Frequent fires may exacerbate processes of land degradation and lead to negative impacts on biodiversity. The reproductive capacity of important veld products such as Phane caterpillar could be affected by fire. The risk of fire is high after the growing season following a good rainy season. An effective fire management system will reduce vulnerability to wildfires in the event that climate change gives rise to a high risk of fires.
Current Fire Management System Currently fire management is under the Agricultural Resource Board (ARB) which is currently being re-located from the Ministry of Agriculture to the Ministry of Environmnet. There is usually an ARB officer in each District and sub-Districts. ARB also has Conservation Committees in each region. However, these committees are not exclusively for fire but addresses other resources including soil conservation and fueld wood. Past reports show that there used to be Veld Fire Groups working with ARB officers, for instance in 1980 Kgatleng had 6 different fire groups one of which was the Olifants fire group (ARB, 1980). However, these fire groups do not seem to exist any more although ARB staff still hold AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 25 monthly meetings where fire monitoring and management issues such as construction of firebreaks are also discussed (Table 7). For example, for June 2001 the Monthly Progress meeting of the North East District reported that 9 burning permits were issued to farmers in Tonota area.
Table 7: Kgatleng: An example of some of the ARB reports- Firebreaks, June 2001. Site Firebreak Length Distance graded Remarks (km) (km) Kgatleng Dibete cordon fence 46.07 46.07 Completed Dinokwe/Kaka 240 68 Ongoing Botswana/Zimbabwe 232 21.6 ongoing Border
Status on Fire Records: It has been difficult to secure fire records from ARB partly due to the fact that this Department is under-staffed. But difficulties in securing records are primarily because the Department has no system of archiving fire data. The records secured were inconsistent, generally incomplete, covered recent years, 1996-2001, and sometimes only parts of the fire season were available (Appendix D). For instance, it is in one record sheet it was indicated that 21 fire incidents occurred in the Francistown region from April to October 2001, but there was no information on the size of area burnt, duration of the fire, causes or how the fires were put out and so forth. While in another record sheet the area burnt was estimated (Appendix E). However, the areas indicated are visual estimates and therefore subject to error.
Fire Trends from existing fire records: In general records show that fires start in April when vegetation begins to senescence and intensify in August to September when vegetation has lost most of the moisture and the weather is dry and windy. Fires begin to decline over October when fuel loads are low in the Limpopo Basin partly due to grazing. The fire season ends in November with the advent of the wet season. Rainfall is a significant factor influencing fires since it affects amount of fueloads and moisture content. A shift in the rainfall season will change the fire pattern over the years and exceptionally high rainfall increases the risk of fires. Figure 18 shows that for 1996 and 1997 and 1999 and 2000 when rainfall was above average the country experience large fire incidents in contrast for instance, to 1995, a drought year.
300
250
200
150
100
Fire incidents Fires 50
0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 Years
Figure 18. Record fires incidents over the country for the past 10 years (Source: ARB fire records)
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 26 Records also show that most fires in the Limpopo Basin burn for duration of a day with few extending to 2 days. The Police and the Army generally alert ARB officers of active fires. Causes of fire are mostly reported to be unknown. Where there is information, children are implicated and a few cases were linked to farmers de-stumping their fields or fires were of cross border, originating from Zimbabwe. The ARB 1980 report indicates that most fires in the Kgatleng and North District were linked to railway passengers. Government officials take a leading role in putting out fires although in nearly all cases the public volunteered and there were cases where private vehicles (usually only one vehicle in each case) were deployed.
In general, trends show that the public does not take a leading role and are reluctant to report fires and or the causes, a factor related to the fire suppression policy practised, in the country. Communities are reluctant to come forward less they are implicated in the cause of the fire, which is an offence punishable by law. This makes it difficult to assess causes of fires over time and has implications on measures taken to control or prevent fires in future.
Cost of fire: The cost in terms of area and resources burnt and as well as the cost of putting out a fire are also either poorly recorded or not given at all. However, available records show that damage is usually in the form of loss of vegetation and occasionally the damage may involve loss of property, such as farm poles, loss of animals and so forth. The cost of putting out fires seem higher where Government officers are involved because this includes overtime and subsistence allowance. Where the public dominated it appears the cost is limited to provision of food and transport cost (Appendix D). Information on cost related to wildfires is essential for linking future trends in fires due to climate change with capacity to control fires. Use of firebreaks, public education and a fire suppression policy are the main approaches that have been applied by ARB to prevent fires. However, fire incidents over the country show that these measures have little effect. Other approaches need to be investigated.
Conclusion In general, the Limpopo basin is known to burn less compared to the north, northwest and central Kgalagadi parts of the country. This is partly because this region has a high population density and this reduces fuel-loads and where a fire occurs it is attended to more quickly than in remote areas such as in Central Kalahari Game Reserve, for instance. Assessment of ARB records show that there has been a decline in the quality of fire reporting and recording system over the years. This makes it difficult to assess fire trends over time. It is hoped that an assessment of historical satellite data will provide some insights on the frequency of burning. The other potential source of data for future assessment will be the MODIS Rapid Response System, which however, is available only from 2000 (http://modis- fire.gsfc.nasa.gov/). From the current data, secured through SAFNet, there was very little burning except for the western part of Serule although there are some indications of past fire scars, which need ground verification. Evidence of past fire scars was also observed during a field trip in the Tuli Block farms. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Eagilwe Segosebe, Sennye Masike, Elisha Toteng and Naomi Moswete
Tourism Potential Component Naomi Moswete
Tourism Resource assessment An outline of the existing cultural and natural environment has been carried out to provide background for assessing the likely impact of climate change on tourism potential in the Limpopo Basin. The outline include among others: existing natural and human attractions, AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 27 heritage/cultural sites, recreational facilities, public and social services, fauna and flora, (including any rare, endangered, or threatened species), tourist accommodation and any tourism development programme and plans in place.
There is need to evaluate strengths and weaknesses of the physical and human tourism resources of the region, in particular: attractions (including Parks, Reserves, Ethnological, Geological and other cultural sites); infrastructure; transport; accommodation; community attitudes and participation in tourism activities.
Literature Survey shows that documented information about tourism in Botswana is scanty. There is limited research on tourism in Southern and Eastern Botswana. A reconnaissance field trip was undertaken to the Bobirwa sub-district and the Tuli Block study sites of AF42. The purpose was for familiarisation purposes and to introduce the study team to the stakeholders. An Msc student in the Department of Environmental Science has been engaged to contribute in assessing tourism potential as an adaptation option in the basin.
Tourist Profile to Cultural Sites in Botswana Tourists look for places that express visions of the past as well as harmony, beauty and tranquillity. This is evident from the new tourism market trend that is emerging worldwide that is cultural heritage market segments. For sustainable cultural tourism practices, culture and arts have a strategic role. Many national and international indicators suggest that tourists are increasingly less interested in showpiece resorts and destinations. They are more interested in environmental, cultural, ethnic, heritage and historical features.
The data presented in Table 8 and in Appendix F show that sites and monuments in Botswana are attracting both international and domestic travellers’ in large numbers. Generally, visitor statistics show that sites tend to be visited by Batswana. This is probably because the country has not been marketing cultural tourism to the international tourist market. Although the tourism industry has not been emphasising cultural heritage tourism as an important country's cultural assets to the inbound tourists, the Department of National Museum and Art Gallery has identified and recorded 1660 historic sites in the country (BTDP, 2000). Very few of these sites are exploited for use. Some of the heritage sites that are utilised for tourism are outlined below.
Lekhubu Heritage Site: Lekhubu is located on the Southern pans in Boteti village. It is one of the national natural monuments with ancient stonewall enclosure and artefacts. Stone tools and pottery fragments have been unearthed along the shoreline dating back several thousand years. Figure 19 shows that tourist visits to Lekhubu have increased. About 4 228 tourists
November
September No of vehicles July No of visitors May
March
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Figure 19: Number of visitors and vehicles entering Lekhubu (March-December 1999; National Museum) AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 28 visited the site between March 1999 and April 2000. The number of visitors to this ecotourism attraction site is still relatively low compared to the popular wildlife based tourist destinations of Northern Botswana.
Phuthadikobo museum in Kgatleng District: Phuthadikobo museum is another interesting cultural site to visit found in the Limpopo region. The museum is located in Mochudi - a scenic village with unique architecture and a rich tribal history. Phuthadikobo is built on a cliff top overlooking the village. The Bakgatla Regent Isang Pilane of Kgatleng, built this interesting structure in 1921 as a school and later became the first secondary school in Botswana. In 1976 the structure was converted to a museum showcasing a great deal of history of Botswana. The museum exhibits interesting history of Bakgatla people of Mochudi. Artefacts on display include silk screening, tin workshops, traditional crafts and jewellery.
Table 8: Proportion of visitors by country of origin to Phuthadikobo Museum from 1999 to 2001.
Botswana South Zimbabwe Europe America Others Africa 93% 1.6% 0.6% 2.3% 1.1% 1.3% (Source: Site Visit -Record Book)
Visitor numbers show that Phuthadikobo is a popular attraction for Batswana probably because it is nearer to the capital city and major villages such as Molepolole and Kanye when compared to Supa Ngwao and Nhabe museums in Francistown and Maun respectively.
Matsieng Foot Prints: This Historic Site is located in Rasesa village also in Kgatleng District. It exhibits rock engravings associated with myths and legends of Batswana tribes' particularly the Bakgatla tribe of Mochudi. About 4829 Batswana visited Matsieng between 1999 and 2001 compared to 286 international tourists who visited the site during the same period.
Tourist attraction in the Limpopo Basin The establishment of a Trans-Frontier Peace Park between Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe, which will incorporate the Tuli Nature Reserve, will further attract greater numbers of tourists in the Limpopo Basin.
Cultural Heritage Assets: The overall cultural atmosphere of the Limpopo Basin is significant. The Tuli Block along the border with South Africa and Masunga area in the North East District towards Zimbabwe are potential major attraction areas in Botswana, which are endowed with rich cultural heritage assets. The main elements of culture that attract tourists include handicrafts, traditions, history of a region, architecture, local cuisine, religion, language, dress, arts, songs and dances. There are a number of documented cultural heritage attractions in the study area (Appendix F).
Nature-Based Tourism Attractions: Most of the nature based tourism facilities in the Limpopo Basin part of Botswana are privately owned, found in the North East District and the Tuli Block where there are private owned farms.
Tuli Block: The Tuli Block is a wildlife conservancy of outstanding beauty, which straddles the Shashe and Limpopo rivers in eastern Botswana. Its unique riverine and bushveld environs attract a variety of wild animals including, mammals,
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 29 bird's reptiles, rodents and insects. The site boasts of a vast population of African elephants. The largest nature reserve in the basin is the Mashatu Game Reserve.
Mashatu Game Reserve: The reserve covers 30 000 hectares of land and has a diverse wilderness of savannah, riverine forests, open plains, sandstone outcrops and abundant wildlife. Facilities in the reserve include a P5.5 million privately owned airfield, which is able to handle jets and ATR aircraft. Mashatu offers activities such as game viewing and photographic safaris, cycling as well as guided night drives. It is the only tourist attraction centre in Botswana where tourists can explore hectares of rugged, unspoilt landscapes on mountain bicycles.
North East District: There are many cultural and natural attractions in the District most of which are under developed for tourism (Table 9). These attractions provide educational and scenic history of the North east District.
Table 9: some of the cultural heritage attractions in the North East District area.
Cultural heritage site Description Supa Ngwao Museum A community based Museum on the edge of Francistown City with a large selection of crafts made in Botswana and an informative display of the history of Francistown and the general life of the first people to settle in this city about 100 years ago.
Domboshaba Ruins The ruins situated 10 kilometre from Masunga are part of the 15th Century Great-Zimbabwe types of settlement.
Matenge Rock Paintings Ancient rock paintings located 5 kilometres south of Matenge Hills between Domboshaba and Kalakamati villages.
Kalakamati Rock Ancient rock paintings found on the eastern side of the Paintings Kalakamati village kgotla.
Nlakhwane Rock Six ancient rock paintings found in Nlapkhane village Paintings associated with early settlers such as the San.
Tourism Facilities - Bobirwa & Tuli Block Tourist facilities include education programs, infrastructure such as accommodation. Mawana Environmental Education located on the banks of the Limpopo River in Tuli has an education centre, which offers excellent environmental education programs to schools in the region. Also in Tuli Block is the Limpopo Valley Airfield. There are also a number of lodges and campsites in the Tuli Block (Appendix G). Other interesting tourism related facilities found in Tuli Block and Mashatu are Mopane Game ranch, Deweni Game Ranch, Mawana Game Ranch, Lephale Game Ranch and they all offer camping.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 30 Table 10: Other Untapped natural and cultural attractions within the Limpopo Basin part of Eastern Botswana.
Site Description Phothophotho waterfalls About 40 minutes walk from Old Palapye village- offers unique ecotourism scenary- a waterfall in the 'middle of a desert'. The site can act as an 'add on' place to see while touring the Bobirwa Subdistrict.
Lecha wetland/swamps Ideal for bird watching and recreational fishing. in Lecheng village Lentswe - Le - Moriti A typical Tswana village with thatched huts and village courtyards depicting Batswana architectural styles- a village renowned for its rich history and culture. The City of Francistown Francistown has a remarkable history that can be used to lure tourists and visitors alike to the region
Selebi Phikwe Town A town formed to support the Copper Nickel mine. The town is surrounded by hills, which form the southern part of the Matopo Mountains of Zimbabwe. A tarmac road connects the town with the Bobonong village from there you can proceed to the Tuli Block region and also Mmadinare village where there is the new Letsibogo dam.
An Overview of Eco-tourism Potential Botswana traditional art form rich and varied assets which provide strong basis for cultural heritage tourism or ecotourism in the country. Some interesting aspects of Batswana culture such as songs, dance, poetry, folklore, and literature have been an integral life of Botswana for centuries and they reflect an important aspect of their traditional life-style. Batswana have remarkable decorative art skills, which are usually displayed on walls and floors of traditional thatched huts and granaries. This offers a unique culture, which could lure both inbound cultural tourists and domestic travellers to visit the country. Botswana's cultural heritage is thriving despite the rapid move of western culture into our societies.
The above outline is an attempt to highlight the cultural heritage resources that are found in Limpopo basin. Generally, tourism activity is very low in the basin. Most communities live on arable and pastoral farming and nature-based tourism activities such as game ranching. However, there is need to investigate further and for instance, determine, how many of the game ranches in the study area are locally or community owned and operated since this may influence the flow of revenues from tourism activity to the local communities in the Limpopo basin.
It is likely that climate change will have a negative impact on the nature based tourism resource base for instance, wildlife population and habitat. The important climatic change variables considered here will include drought, forest fires and rising temperatures that could threaten the tourism activity in the area. There will be need for the communities to switch from current livelihoods of arable and pastoral farming, wildlife tourism to sustainable cultural heritage based tourism that will bring them social, environmental, and economic AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 31 benefits. However, indications on rising water demand (see Water Demand component), as well as high temperatures show that cultural heritage based tourism may be affected as well. It is important to identify tourism resources likely to be affected by climate change in the study area and work on the adaptation strategies that may reduce this negative impact. Cultural heritage tourism, if well planned and managed can boost the economy for example create jobs.
Potential impact of Climate Change on nature-based tourism • Reduction of the attractiveness of nature reserves thereby reducing income from tourism • Death or displacement of wildlife due to habitat loss • Increase species competition of forage (wildlife and livestock) • Reduction of wildlife due to death hence no hunting safaris • Disruption of recreational fishing in the Limpopo, Shashe and Motloutse rivers and dams due to the drying up of the rivers and adjoining streams and lower water levels in dams • Less international tourist numbers and shortened length of stay due for instance high temperatures.
Vulnerability and Adaptation Capacity Elisha Toteng
Recruitment of MSc Students Two MSc Environmental Science students were recruited to work on two separate but complimentary socio-economic research projects. These are building blocks in vulnerability and adaptation capacity to climate change assessment in the wider Limpopo Project. The students are working on the research topics outlined below.
Institutional and policy framework impact on vulnerability and adaptation capacity to climate change in eastern Botswana
The aim of the study is to examine how institutions and policies in the Limpopo Basin of Eastern Botswana affect communities’ vulnerability and adaptation capacity to climate change in the area, focusing on drought. Drought is the most common climate induced hazard and disaster adversely affecting rural communities in Botswana. Significant progress has been made in reviewing the literature for this study. The student is about to finalise his research proposal for presentation at a Departmental seminar to comply with academic requirements. The presentation should take place within the next few weeks. Following on from this the student will be in a position to proceed on fieldwork for collection of primary data.
Assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation capacity of rural livelihoods to climate change in eastern Botswana.
The aim of the study is to document sources of rural livelihoods in the study area and assess how these have become vulnerable and adapted to drought over time. As in the policy and institutional study, drought has been chosen as an important variable because it is the most common climate hazard affecting rural communities in Botswana. Some progress has been made in reviewing the literature and preparing the proposal but it is not adequate. More effort is still required for the student to put up a coherent and substantive proposal that would meet Departmental academic standards prior to proceeding on fieldwork.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 32 Policy Review and Analysis In addition to students projects work is ongoing on assembling secondary data and making desk-top review of policies affecting rural development in general with a view to assessing how these affect communities’ vulnerability and adaptation capacity to drought. About fifty major policy documents, most of which are national have been reviewed (See Appendix H). Indications are that most of Botswana’s policies do not take into account society’s vulnerability to climate. There are however, some short-term drought relief schemes that are implemented from time to time in the wake of serious droughts to assuage its adverse impacts on poorer groups in rural areas.
The policies that are being reviewed have been classified into different categories as follows: overarching, human social welfare, natural resource management, agriculture and food production support, and income and employment generation support policies (Appendix H).
The policy review and analysis adopted follows the following structure: determination of the broad aim of the policy, its implementation strategy and expected output or implications for vulnerability and adaptation to impacts of climate change with specific reference to drought. The emerging picture is that in general, and since attainment of political independence from Britain in 1966, there has been a proliferation of a wide range of policies covering various issues in Botswana including rural development but these are not informed by the need to minimise communities’ vulnerability and adaptation capacity to climate change, especially drought. The policies include short-term ad-hoc measures such as the drought relief programme, which is specifically aimed at alleviating the adverse impact of drought. However, long term vulnerability and adaptation capacity of communities to climate change in general, and drought in particular is not something that has been taken into account as a cross cutting issue in the policy making process in Botswana. Our expectation is that this should be an important consideration in the formulation of policies particularly those relating to agricultural production and natural resource management as most rural means of livelihoods and sustenance are dependent on these.
Meeting Stakeholders: North East and Bobirwa During the month of October 2002 a reconnaissance field trip was undertaken with the two MSc students working under this sub-component. The aim of this trip was to familiarise the team with the study area, and also make contact with the District authorities that could support members of the research team with data and logistics upon commencement of substantive future field surveys.
North-East District: The trip to the North East took the team to several villages in the District but of particular importance was the visit to Masunga, the District Headquarters. Here the team met and held discussions with some key District officials notably the Acting District Commissioner and District Officer for Lands (DoL), the Council Secretary, and Kgotla officials. The chief was not available.
The officials were informed about the broad aim of the study. The District Commissioner’s office indicated its willingness to assist the team as far as possible. In particular, the DoL indicated the following as some of the visible problems in the District that could possibly debilitate communities vulnerability to climate change and reduce their resilience or capacity to adapt to climate change in general and drought in particular: i. Dire shortage of land for all uses in the district, and in particular for agriculture and residential development
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 33 ii. Erosion and gully formation (Refer to land degradation sub-section) iii. Poor prospects for irrigation due in part to lack of water (See water components above) iv. Pollution due in part to the development of human settlements in proximity to one another.
Bobirwa: In Bobirwa the survey team commenced its visit with a courtesy call as is demanded by protocol at the District Administration (District Commissioner’s office). As a representative of central government in the district, the office is well placed to direct research teams to key issues in the District development processes. The team was directed to the Department of Wildlife and National Parks office at Mathathane where an officer was assigned to guide the team through district including visists to Mashatu Game Reserve, Talana Farms, Pont Drift and Lentswe-le-Moriti village.
In terms of vulnerability to climate change, most of the informants indicated persistent drought as the main threat to their sources of livelihoods. In Lentswe-le-Moriti and some of the private farms the discussions indicated that tourism is one of the potential adaptation options that was supported by government policy (See Eco-tourism section). From observation, the tapping of the desert palm wine, although done on isolated and unsustainable scale is something that could be explored as a form of adaptation or income generation source for rural women engaged in the activity. Since the Tuli Block area is a major tourist area market opportunities for the product could also be explored in the area.
C. DIFFICULTIES ENCOUNTERED AND LESSONS LEARNT
a. Unpredictable changes in the University of Botswana calendar continued to make it difficult to schedule work as previously planned under the AF42 project. For example, the November-December 2002 end of year examinations was postponed to January 2003. This had a role in submission of progress reports from different components of AF42. Although the current situation is stable we cannot predict the future.
b. Most components of the study continued to report difficulties in finding appropriate data at the required scale. This is partly due to limited data archiving facilities in the country and the fact that the study is defined by the basin and not the data administration units used to collect and archive data. Efforts are ongoing to work around this limitation.
c. While progress has been made, there was limited interaction with climate change scenarios among the different components of the project. Various options are being considered to build capacity to work with climate scenarios within the project team.
d. Different project components reported difficulties in attracting qualified research assistants. For example, lack of progress in the crop sector was alluded mostly to a Research Assistant who left unceremoniously for another job. In general team members face difficulties in accommodating project activities within the demanding teaching schedule. In other cases Msc students have been recruited to work on different aspects of the project. While this is good since it also promotes capacity building, the level of progress made depends on the student and the need to meet AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 34 Department postgraduate requirements. Students joining the project are already sponsored. The AF42 budget does not cover scholarship. As a result the financial contribution by AF42 may not be good enough an incentive to motivate student to keep up with AIACC expectations, in terms of area of research and time schedules. In the next phase attempts will be made to engage, on a part time basis, former Environmental Science students who are completing postgraduate Diploma in Education, (which is a lighter load) to work on specific areas where assistance is needed.
e. There were problems with some team members which reflected among other things a lack of understanding on use of project resources, that is AF42 funds are available for use within the budget lines defined by the team, in line with University of Botswana research fund regulations and the AIACC memorandum of Agreement. This means for example, that daily rates of subsistence allowances cannot be changed randomly. Some of these difficulties pointed to the need for understanding of general management of multidisciplinary/team projects, use/dispense of research funds and so forth. The University of Botswana Research and Development Unit is being engaged to assist with these management issues.
f. One of the major constraints facing this project is poor Internet services in the country. This has constrained acquisition and access to global databases in particular and in some cases also constrained communications within the project team and with other relevant parties. A slow Internet service also affects attempts to secure software and hardware. We have not figured out a solution to this problem.
g. Poor IT services is another major difficulty that leads to delays in various project activities including production of reports and this eventually constrain overall progress. The University is well equipped in terms of facilities such as computer laboratories with up to date hardware and software but there are limited skilled manpower resources to provide IT support to research and academic staff. For instance, the remote sensing and GIS lab have now been set but there is no technician. There may be a need to seek commercial services to accomplish some of the AF42 activities in future.
D. CONNECTIONS WITH PREPARATION OF NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS UNDER UNFCCC.
The AF42 PI was nominated to be the representative of the University of Botswana in the Botswana National Committee on Climate Change (NCCC) in October 2002. One of the terms of reference of the NCCC is to "oversee the preparations of the National Communication to the climate change secretariat and the conference of the parties and ensuring the formulation of appropriate national responses to climate change issues." The Department of Meteorological Services coordinates National Communication activities in the country.
Within the University AF42 falls under the Botswana Global Change Committee (BGCC) of which the Department of Meteorological Services has been a member since 1993. The primary role of BGCC is to initiate climate change related research in the country to generate locally relevant information required by NCCC. The AF42 PI is currently the chairperson of BGCC.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 35 AF42 project was communicated at the First Meeting of the GEF Small Grant Program (SGP) on Climate Change Networking Group linked to activities of the NCCC in September 2001 (Dube, 2001). One of the AF42 team members, Dr E. Toteng, is a member of the GEF/SGP Committee.
E. DESCRIPTION OF TASKS TO BE PERFORMED IN THE NEXT SIX-MONTH PERIOD.
• Compiling, processes and analysing of historical data will continue to dominate the activities of nearly all the sub-components over the next phase. This will include:
i. Water demand information in Bobirwa and the North East District ii. Wildlife statistics in communal areas and ranches of Bobirwa in particular iii. Data on tourist visits to cultural heritage and nature based sites. iv. Crop statistics from agricultural survey reports and farm management data v. Phane exports figures at border gates to South Africa
• Meeting various stakeholders is another task expected for most components over the January-June 2003 period:
i. The crop sector will engage in participatory rural appraisal (PRA), key informant interviews and a household survey in the farming systems found in the Basin. ii. Tourism: meet with local people, local authority figures such as the chief, headman and Community Development Officers, as well as operators of lodges and campsites to discuss the potential of eco-tourism as an adaptation strategy and determine their perspective on environmental change in their localities. iii. Arrangements will be made to conduct interviews from family unit to District Officers to assess the role of policy and institutions on adaptation capacity in Kgatleng District site. iv. Wildlife/livestock: Prepare for detailed field survey to collect data related to wildlife and livestock (in communal grazing areas and freehold ranches) over the dry season months June/July.
• Secondary data analysis and the field surveys will provide the basis for detailed sites of land cover/use change assessments. Air photographs and SPOT data will be acquired to commence detailed mapping on the selected sites to produce land cover/use change information that can be used by the different components, for example runoff assessments and land degradation.
• Efforts will be made to pilot the integration of information on climate scenarios in the different components of AF42. This will be achieved mainly through establishing collaborative links with outside experts where appropriate. An invitation will be extended to the Department of Meteorological Services to participate in the areas related to climate scenarios and help in making climate data available for validating for example, regional scenarios. This link will also assist to make information on the project available for national Communications.
• A PhD student will be recruited to work on fire and land degradation aspects of the project particularly in the Bobirwa site.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 36 • During this phase attempts will be made to assess the current project outputs with the view of establishing material for preparing publications. It is also expected that some Msc graduates will be in the process of completing their thesis by the end of this period.
• An AF42 flyer will be produced for communicating the project to different stakeholders.
F. ANTICIPATED DIFFICULTIES IN THE NEXT SIX-MONTH PERIOD
Difficulties noted during this phase regarding Internet and IT services, securing research assistants, acquisition of data at the basin scale and changes in the UB calendar will continue to influence progress over the January to June Phase.
Other more specific anticipated difficulties include for water supply, procurement of software on MATLAB with Artificial Neural Network Tool Box and building necessary skills to use it on the procured data. It is also expected that acquisition of historical satellite data will continue to be a slow process.
REFERENCE
Agricultural Resource Board (1980). Annual Report, Republic of Botswana. 22 p.
Agriculture Statistics 1985-1997. Central Statistics Office and Ministry of Agriculture, Gaborone.
BTDP (2000) Tourism Master Plan. Final Draft. Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Gaborone. Botswana. Commission of the European Union, May 2000.
BTDP (2000) Existing and Potential Tourist Attractions in Botswana. Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Gaborone. Botswana. January 2000.
Boland. J. in Frederick. D.K (ed) 2002. water resources and Climatic Change. An Elgar reference collection. USA.
Bonifica, (1992) Aerial Surveys of Botswana 1989-1991. Final Report. Technical Assistance to the Department of Wildlife and National Parks. Gaborone. 145pp.
Botswana Government (2002). Trade Statistics. Central Statistics Office, Gaborone. Botswana Government (1985-1997).
Campbell, A.C. 1971. ‘Traditional utilisation of wildlife in the Kalahari’, Botswana Notes and Records, Special Edition. 1, 103-113.
Campbell, A.C. & Child, G. 1971. ‘The impact of man on the environment of Botswana’, Botswana Notes & Records, 3, 91-111.
Cooke, H.J. 1983. Environmental change in Botswana: Which Way Botswana’s Wildlife? Proceedings of the Symposium of the Kalahari Conservation Society, Gaborone, pp 11-18. AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 37
Cooke, H.J. 1985. ‘The Kalahari today: a case of conflict over resource use’, Geographical Journal, 151, 75-85.
DHV (1980) Countrywide Animal and Range Assessment Project. 7 vols. Gaborone: European Development Fund and Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
DWNP (1994a) Aerial Census of Animals in Botswana: Dry Season 1994. ULG Consultants Ltd. UK. Technical Assistance to the Department of Wildlife and National Parks. Gaborone.
DWNP (1994b) Aerial Census of Animals in Botswana: Wet Season 1994. ULG Consultants Ltd. UK. Technical Assistance to the Department of Wildlife and National Parks. Gaborone.
Dube O. P. (2001). Climate Change Related Research Activities at the University of Botswana. A paper presented at the First Meeting of the GEF/SGP Climate Change Networking Group, Gaborone – 17th September 2001
Frederick. D.K & Major, C. D. in Frederick. D.K (ed) 2002. water resources and Climatic Change. An Elgar reference collection. USA
Hitchcock, R. K. 1978. Kalahari Cattleposts: A Regional Study of Hunter-Gatherers Pastoralists, and Agriculturists in the Western Sandveld Region, Central District, Botswana, Government Printer, Gaborone.
Kgabung, B. (1999) The Impact of the Expansion of Livestock Industry on Subsistence use of Wildlife and Veld products in Northern Kgalagadi Sub-District, Botswana. MSc Thesis. Department of Environmental Science, University of Botswana.
Kulshreshtha. N.S, Kos Z., & Priazhinskaya, V in Kaczmarek, Z,. Strzepek, L.S & Priazhinskaya, (eds) 1996. Water Resources Management in the face of Climatic/hydrologic Uncertainty. Kluwer Academic Publishers, London Ministry of Agriculture 1993. Botswana Agricultural Statistics, Central Statistics Office, Gaborone.
Ministry of Agriculture 2002. Botswana Agricultural Statistics, Central Statistics Office, Gaborone.
McLeod G. (1992). Environmental Change at Bobonong in the Central District, Eastern Botswana. Botswana notes and Records. 24: 87-121.
Perkins, J. S. (1991) The Impact of Borehole Dependent Cattle Grazing on the Environment and Society of the Eastern Kalahari Sandveld, Central District, Botswana. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Sheffield. UK.
Perkins, J. S. (1996) ‘Botswana: fencing out the equity Issue. Cattleposts and cattle ranches in the Kalahari desert. Journal of Arid Environments, 33, 503-517.
Sampson, R. N., Atkinson and Lewis, J. W. (eds) (2000. Mapping wildfire hazards and risks, Food Products Press, New York. 339p.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 38
Sandford, S. 1977. Dealing with Drought and Livestock in Botswana, Unpublished Report.
SMEC, WCPU & SG AB., (1990). Botswana National Water Master Plan Study. Prepared for the Government of Botswana.
White, R.H. 1993. Livestock Development and Pastoral Production on Communal Rangelands in Botswana, The Botswana Society, Gaborone.
Williamson, D. and Williamson, J. (1985a) Botswana’s fences and the depletion of Kalahari wildlife, Parks, 10 (2), 5-7.
Williamson, D. and Williamson, J. (1985b) Kalahari Ungulate Movement Study. Frankfurt Zoological Society.
World Bank Supervision Mission, 1986. Current Wildlife Issues in Botswana, Unpublished Report.
SADC Food Security: (http://www.sadc-fanr.org.zw/) checked in November 2002.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 39 APPENDICES
Appendix A: (a). Water Balance Table for the Limpopo Catchment for the Year 1980
Months JFMAMJJ AS ONDTotal > P 103. 90.2 36.7 10.9 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.2 7.9 18.6 119.9 59.4 449 2 PET 257. 226. 229. 168. 164.1 135.5 122.8 189.2 243.8 293.1 222.6 222.5 7 2 9 0 P-PET ------154. 136. 193. 157. 162.9 134.6 122.7 189.0 235.9 274.5 102.7 163.1 5 0 2 1 APWL 154. 290. 483. 640. 803.7 938.3 1061. 1249. 1485. 1760. 1863. 2026. 5 5 7 8 0 9 9 4 1 2 SM 32.6 10.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DSM 32.6 -22.3 -8.3 -1.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 AET 257. 112. 45.0 12.4 164.1 135.5 122.8 189.2 243.8 293.1 222.6 222.5 7 5 DEF 0.0 113. 184. 155. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 9 6 SURP - 0.0 0.0 0.0 ------187. 162.5 134.5 122.7 189.0 235.9 274.5 102.7 163.1 1 TARO 187. 93.6 46.8 23.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 163.1 1 RO 93.6 46.8 23.4 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.6 257 DET 93.6 46.8 23.4 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.6
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 40
Appendix A: (b). Water Balance Table for the Limpopo Catchment for the Year 1988
Months J F M A M J J A S O N D Total P 40.6 257. 85.4 34.5 0.0 3.6 0.2 0.0 12.6 51.4 22.1 53.0 560. 0 4 PET 313. 197. 198. 186. 145.7 158.1 166.0 221.0 291.3 287.4 340.2 323.1 8 6 6 7 P-PET - 59.4 ------273. 113. 152. 145.7 154.5 165.9 220.9 278.7 236.0 318.1 270.1 2 1 2 APWL 273. 213. 326. 479. 624.7 779.2 945.1 1166. 1444. 1680. 1998. 2268. 2 8 9 1 0 7 7 7 9 SM 12.0 19.8 7.6 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DSM 12.0 7.8 -12.2 -5.5 -1.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 AET 313. 197. 97.6 40.0 1.5 4.0 0.3 0.1 12.6 51.4 22.1 53.0 8 6 DEF 0.0 0.0 100. 146. 144.2 154.1 165.7 220.9 278.7 236.0 318.1 270.1 9 7 SURP - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 285. 2 TARO 285. 142. 71.3 35.6 17.8 8.9 4.5 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 2 6 RO 142. 71.3 35.6 17.8 8.9 4.5 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 285. 6 1 DET 142. 71.3 35.6 17.8 8.9 4.5 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 6
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 41
Appendix A: (c). Water Balance Table for the Limpopo Catchment for the Year 1993 JFMAMJJ AS ONDTota l P 54.4 76.6 22.3 9.3 1.2 0.9 4.0 0.1 7.3 23.4 77.5 52.3 329. 3 PET 247. 218. 235. 192. 168.5 144.4 162.7 213.6 270.2 303.6 273.3 244.6 8 5 6 1 P-PET ------193. 141. 213. 182. 167.3 143.5 158.7 213.5 262.9 280.2 195.8 192.3 4 9 3 8 APWL 193. 335. 548. 731. 898.7 1042. 1200. 1414. 1677. 1957. 2153. 2345. 4 3 6 4 3 9 4 3 5 3 6 SM 23.5 7.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DSM 23.5 -16.4 -5.9 -0.9 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 247. 93.0 28.2 10.2 168.5 144.4 162.7 213.6 270.2 303.6 273.3 244.6 8 DEF 0.0 125. 207. 181. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 4 9 SURP - 0.0 0.0 0.0 ------216. 167.1 143.5 158.7 213.5 262.9 280.2 195.8 192.3 9 TARO 424. 212. 106. 0.0 167.1 227.1 272.2 349.6 437.7 499.1 445.3 414.9 4 2 1 RO 212. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 212. 2 2 DET 212. 106. 53.0 0.0 83.5 113.5 136.1 174.8 218.8 249.5 222.7 207.5 2 1
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 42
Appendix B: Livestock Trends in the Case Study Sites
Kgatleng Bobirwa Northeast District Tuli Block Goat YearCattle Goats SheepCattle Goats Sheep Cattle Goats Sheep Cattle s Sheep 1983129.8 26.8 5 202.8 63.1 10.5 262 106.4 11.3 1984111.9 33.4 3.5 176.3 81.5 14 273 116.1 18.4 1985104.8 55.4 4.1 130.7 93 17.2 285.9 173.5 18.5 1986111.7 56.3 4.2 150.9 115.2 23.6 311.8 204.3 25.5 1987106.4 99.3 4.7 123.5 114.7 15.9 284.4 209 22.9 1988108.8 109.2 4.9 172.2 157.9 19.2 294.2 240.3 24.7 1989 109.2 6.8 200.8 23.2 318.3 27 1990122.5 109.2 184.4 200.8 23.2 343.6 318.3 27 1991 1992 20.41 199373.2 85.9 11.5 52.7 112.9 16.3 215.5 322.1 29.5 3 1.4 1.6 1994 105.2 19953 40.8 6.941 600 88.16 106.04 90.66 152.00 23.67 128.47 217.70 13.92 19969 9 2.613 6 7 2 3 1 4 2.763 330 319 99.19 93.38 180.65 23.74 137.53 215.23 31.93 19972 4 4 5 1 6 5 9.939 2014 1.113 96.19 71.97 13.34 143.88 18.73 10.62 19988 82.293 9.784 9 6 6 5 9 1.752902
(CSO Agricultural Statistics)
Appendix C: An example of the topographic map products from the Surveys and Mapping Department. This map shows common landcover/uses of parts of Bobirwa, for instance, fields shown as blocks and communal grazing areas indicated as spaces.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 43 Appendix D: Kgatleng; An example of ARB fire report record for April-June 20002 Place Outbre Area Reporter Cause Control Remarks/ ak Date (km) Monametsan 25-04 No Police- Not Same day- Cost- a data Mochudi known Police P196- &Volunteer putting s out Dikgonne/M 16/05 No Police- Not 17/05-local Cost – asuathaga data Mochudi Know &Botswana P7704.30 n Police, to put out Volunteers & Wildlife employees Morwa/Ditej 26/05 No No data Not Public on Not wane data known 27/05 Available
25.1
20.1
15.1
10.1 hactares
5.1 Area burnt (ha) Area burnt 0.1
le te g e e a oj topi tladi eb st din sil a t -si t Di a ti a M m M a Ta y hashe E ata S P Locations Appendix E: An example of visual based estimates of burnt areas in one of the Agricultural Resource Board fire records
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 44
Appendix F: Cultural Heritage Assets sites in the Limpopo Basin.
Site Location Description Solomon's Wall East of the Tuli Remains of an ancient natural dyke Block area across Motloutse River and Anglo - Boer war sites of 1899 to 1902. Tswapong Hills Situated in the The Hills endowed with rich greater Tswapong Batswapong and Bangwato history villages in eastern and is of great interest to Botswana Archaeologists and scientists. Pottery fragments and kilns have been found in the area. Fort Motloutse Located about 10 This historic site is part of the kilometres east of fortifications built for the 1890 Bobonong Village pioneer column that settled in former Rhodesia (Zimbabwe)
Majojo Ruins 2 kilometres south of A great Zimbabwe type settlement Serule Junction with decorated stones and residence of a District chief Moremi Gorge Found near Moremi Renowned for its unique rock Village paintings, waterfall, rich plant life and vulture colony Majande Ruins 40 kilometres from The site has stone walled enclosures Bobonong village that are believed to be belonging to the Khami period Leshongwane 10 km north of the Has a great Zimbabwe type of (Phikwe) Ruins Selebe Phikwe town settlement with stone wall enclosures Modipe Hill site Modipane in A late Stone Age Sotho-Tswana Kgatleng District dagga village with structures from 15th to 19th century
Appendix G: Accommodation establishments in Tuli Block.
Lodges Campsites Limpopo River Lodge Mashatu Main Camp
Tuli Safari Lodge Mashatu Tented Camp
Malope Lodge Koro Tented Camp
Tumelo lodge Mokowe Tented Camp
Wilderness Camp
Nakalodi Tented Camp
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 45 Appendix H: Policies that are being reviewed classified in terms of: overarching, human social welfare, natural resource management, agriculture and food production support, and income and employment generation support policies.
Overarching Policies: 1. Rural Development in Botswana, Government Paper No.1 of 1972. 2. National Policy for Rural Development, Government Paper No.2 of 1973. 3. Revised National Policy for Rural Development, Government Paper No. 3 of 2002 4. Vision 2016, Towards Prosperity for All, Long Term Vision for Botswana, 1997. 5. Community Based Strategy for Rural Development, 1997, MFDP.
Human Social Welfare Policies: 1. National Policy on Education, Government Paper No.1 of 1977. 2. Human Drought Relief Programme, 1979, MLGL. 3. A Human Drought Relief Programme for Botswana, 1980, MLGL. 4. National Policy on Destitute, 1980 [including amendments on drought induced destitute (1995) and on orphans (1998)], MLGH. 5. National Policy on Economic. Opportunities, Government Paper No.2 of 1982. 6. Government Response to the Report on the Evaluation of the Drought Relief and Recovery Programme 1982-90, Government Paper No.2 of 1992. 7. Planning for People- A Strategy for Accelerated Human Development in Botswana, 1993, (UNDP/UNICEF), MFDP. 8. The Revised National Policy on Education, Government Paper No.2 of 1994. 9. Policy on Women in Development, 1995, MLHA. 10. National Health Policy, 1995, MOH. 11. National Youth Policy, 1996, MLHA. 12. National Policy on Care for People with Disabilities, 1996, MOH. 13. National Policy on Vocational Education and Training, 1997, MLHA. 14. National Population Policy, 1997. 15. Policy on Small Medium and Micro Enterprises in Botswana, Government Paper No. 1of 1999. 16. Short Term Plan of Action on Care of Orphans in Botswana- 1999-2001, 1999, MLGLH. 17. Macro Economic Impacts of HlV/AIDS Epidemic in Botswana, 2000, UNDP. 18. The Impact of HIV/AIDS on the Health Sector in Botswana, 2000, UNDP. 19. An Impact Assessment of HIV/AIDS on Current and Future Population Characteristics and Demographics in Botswana, 2000, UNDP. 20. Revised Destitute Persons Policy, (draft) May, 2000 version. 21. Policy on the Remote Area Development Programme (draft) November, 1993 version. 22. National Policy on Culture, Cabinet Directive No. CAB 17/2001.
Natural Resource Management Policies 1. National Policy on Tribal Grazing Land, Government Paper No.2 of 1975. 2. Communal Area Planning and Development (CAPAD), 1981 [?], MLGLH. 3. Arable Lands Development Programme (ALDEP) Issues Paper, 1982, LDC. 4. Communal First Development Areas (CFDAs) as a Strategy for Rural Development, 1982, RDU, MFDP. 5. National Policy on Land Tenure, Government Paper No. 1 of 1985. 6. Wildlife Conservation Policy, Government Paper N0.1 of 1986. 7. Tourism Policy, Government Paper No. 2 of 1990. 8. National Policy on Agricultural Development, Government Paper No. 1 of 1991. 9. Ostrich Management Plan Policy, Government Paper No. 1 of 1994.
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 46 10. Botswana National Settlement Policy, Government Paper No. 2 of 1998. 11. Botswana Wetlands Policy and strategy (1999 draft or later version), NCSA, MLE&H. 12. Botswana National Forest Policy (1998 draft or later version). 13. Community Based Natural Resources Management Policy (1997 draft or later version)
Agriculture and food production support policies 1. National Food Strategy, Government Paper No.2 of 1985. 2. The Revised National Food Strategy, Government Paper No. 4 of 2000. 3. National Master Plan for Arable Agriculture and Dairy Development, Government Paper No. 1 of 2002.
Income and employment generation support policies 1. National Policy on Incomes, Employment, Prices and Profits, Government Paper No. 2 of 1972. 2. Industrial Development Policy, Government Paper No. 2 of 1984. 3. Industrial Development Policy, Government Paper No. 1 of 1998. 4. Financial Assistance Policy, Government Paper No. 1 of 1982. 5. Privatisation Policy for Botswana, Government Paper No. 1 of 2000
______
AF42_Progress Report - January 2003 AIACC REGIONAL STUDY EXPENSE REPORT Project statement of allocation (budget), expenditure and balance (expressed in US$) covering the period: 01 APRIL 2002 – 30 JUNE 2002
Project Number: AIACC_AF42
Principal Investigator: Opha Pauline Dube
Project Title: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION CAPACITY IN THE LIMPOPO BASIN OF SEMI- ARID LAND SOUTHERN AFRICA: THE CASE OF EASTERN BOTSWANA.
Supporting Organizations: Global System for Analysis, Research and Training (START), Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP
I hereby certify that all information contained in this expense report is true and correct.
Signed: ______O. S. Raditholo______Date: _26th August 2002______University of Botswana Financial Services – Projects Manager (Duly authorized official of administering institution)
Signed: __Opha Pauline Dube______Date: __26th august 2002______(Principal Investigator)
AF42_July 02 INVENTORY OF NON-EXPENDABLE EQUIPMENT PURCHASED AGAINST AIACC PROJECT (ITEMS US$1,500 UNIT VALUE AND ABOVE) {Please update this form for each reporting period}
PROJECT NUMBER: ___AF42______PROJECT TITLE: _ IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION CAPACITY IN THE LIMPOPO BASIN OF SEMI-ARID LAND SOUTHERN AFRICA: THE CASE OF EASTERN BOTSWANA.
______ADMINISTERING INSTITUTION: ___University of Botswana______PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: _____Opha Pauline Dube______
Description Serial No. Date of Original Present Location Remarks Purchase Price Condition (US$) Compaq Notebook 1V22KNVLH2 15-April-02 1636 New Department of Environmental Used by the PI. RX Science-University of Another more Botswana advanced notebook is being secured. ProLine Laptop for heavy duty field 27NP034477 13-November-02 3,008 New Okavango research Centre and Used by the Food use. Department of Environmental sector of the project - Science-University of mostly so far used Botswana under the Forest products component
The physical verification of the items was done by: University of Botswana Purchasing Office
AF42_July 02 Name: ___Opha Pauline Dube______Signature: _O. P. Dube______Date: ____25th August 2002 (Principal Investigator)
AF42_July 02 CASH ADVANCE INFORMATION AND REQUEST:
A. AMOUNT OF PREVIOUS CASH ADVANCE: DATE: 2-Apr-02 AMOUNT: $ 42,074.00
DATE: 5-Sep-02 AMOUNT: $ 52,909.00
DATE: AMOUNT:
DATE: AMOUNT:
DATE: AMOUNT:
DATE: AMOUNT:
TOTAL(1) $ 94,983.00
B. EXPENDITURES (BY REPORTING PERIOD)
TOTAL EXPENDITURES FOR PERIOD 01 JAN 2002 - 30 JUN 2002: $ 6,025 6025 $ -
TOTAL EXPENDITURES FOR PERIOD 01 JUL 2002 - 31 DEC 2002: $ 10,088
TOTAL EXPENDITURES FOR PERIOD 01 JAN 2003 - 30 JUN 2003:
TOTAL EXPENDITURES FOR PERIOD 01 JUL 2003 - 31 DEC 2003:
TOTAL EXPENDITURES FOR PERIOD 01 JAN 2004 - 30 JUNE 2004:
TOTAL EXPENDITURES FOR PERIOD 01 JUL 2004 - 31 DEC 2004:
TOTAL(2) $ 16,113
C. TOTAL CASH - IN - HAND (TOTAL(1) MINUS TOTAL(2): $ 78,870
D. TOTAL ESTIMATED EXPENSES FOR SUBSEQUENT 8-MONTH PERIOD: $ 79,512 (FROM TABLE ABOVE)
E. TOTAL CASH ADVANCE REQUESTED (D. MINUS C.): $ 642 MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES[A] 1. MAPS E.G. TOPOGRAGRAPHIC MAPS DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT 18-Dec-02 213424 Hardcopy Topographic maps 60.00
TOTAL 60.00
2. AIR PHOTOS DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT
TOTAL -
3. SPOT IMAGES DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT
TOTAL -
4. DATA (HARD/DIGITAL EG. STATISTICS RECORDS, SOIL MAPS,RAINFALL DATA ETC) & MODEL EXCHANGE E.G. AREA PRODUCTION MODEL DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT
TOTAL -
5. AUDIO/VIDEO CASSETTE & BATTERY CHARGER DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT TOTAL -
6. CONSUMABLES: STATIONARY, PHOTOCOPYING, DIDKETTES, FILMS & FILM PROCESSING, GPS/CAMERA/VIDEO BATTERIES ETC. - - DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT 26-Sep-02 JE-020359 ALLOCATION OF REPROGRAPHICS 0.40 18-Dec-02 213424 CARRY BAGS,CDs 1,732.02
TOTAL 1,732.42
EQUIPMENT & SOFTWARE[B] 1. 2 X LAPTOP - DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT 13-Nov-02 UB20203674 TECH CITY 18,385.00
TOTAL 18,385.00
2. PORTABLE DIGITAL OVERHEAD PROJECTOR DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT
TOTAL -
3. 2 X TAPE RECORDER DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT
TOTAL -
4. DIGITAL CAMERA DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT 4-Sep-02 PM 146814 7,100.00 TOTAL 7,100.00
5. VIDEO CASSETTE RECORDER DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT 4-Sep-02 2841 PM 146814 8,700.00
TOTAL 8,700.00
6. DATA ANALYSIS SOFTWARE E.G. CANOCO, TWINSPAN, MATLAB WITH ANN AND SIMULATION TOOL BOXES DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT
TOTAL -
FIELD SURVEY[C] 1. TRAVEL/TRANSPORT ($0.30/KM) DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT 18-Dec-02 213424 FIELD TRAVEL 891.50 16-Dec-02 JE-020430 FUEL-Bobirwa 200.00 24-Dec-02 Field survey- Bobirwa & North East 4,922.32 14-Jan-03 Fuel-Bobirwa & North East 445.06 12-Dec-02 Fuel- kgatleng 141.01 20-Nov-02 AVIs Car - Bobirwa & North East 5,376.55 17-Oct-02 Avis Car - Bobirwa 8,567.81 TOTAL 20,544.25
2. FIELD SUBSISTENCE FOR RESEARCHERS(10 X $20 PER DAY DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT 23-Aug-02 208046 LUNCH FOR 10 RESEARCHERS 155.05 16-Dec-02 JE-020430 ACCOMMODATION FOR RESEARCHERS 1,314.80 31-Mar-03 JE-020463 RETIRING adv._Subsistence allow. 1,050.00 16-Dec-02 Retiring Adv._ Accom & food 1,194.80 12-Dec-02 Field Accom. & food allowance 891.50 24-Dec-02 Field Accom., food & subsistence 1,159.12 TOTAL 5,765.27
3. FIELD SURVEY RESEARCH ASSISTANTS(10 X $14.83 PER DAY)
DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT 7-Aug-02 207210 RESEARCH ASSISTANT 1,040.00
TOTAL 1,040.00
4. BASIC FIELD EQUIPMENT(TAPES, SPRINGBALANCES ETC) DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT
TOTAL -
5. DATA COLLECTION /PROCESSING /ANALYSIS-RESEARCH ASSISTANTS (9 X $11.86 PER DAY) DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT 7-Aug-02 207210 RESEARCH ASSISTANT 900.00 2-Sep-02 RESEARCH ASSISTANT 1,200.00 13-Sep-02 208949 RESEARCH ASSISTANT 1,080.00 3-Oct-02 209789 RESEARCH ASSISTANT 1,260.00 4-Oct-02 209962 RESEARCH ASSISTANT 2,275.00 6-Nov-02 211353 RESEARCH ASSISTANT 1,430.00 3-Dec-02 212581 RESEARCH ASSISTANT 1,200.00 9-Dec-02 212974 RESEARCH ASSISTANT 1,235.00
TOTAL 10,580.00
CONSULTANTS[D] -
SUB-CONTRACTS[E] - TELECOMMUNICATIONS[F] 1. PHONE, FAX & INTERNET DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT
TOTAL -
COMPUTER SERVICES[G]
PUBLICATION COSTS (INCL. DISSEMINATION) [H]
1. PUBLICATION DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT
TOTAL -
2. VIDEO PRODUCTION DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT
TOTAL -
OTHER[I] 1. LOCAL WORKSHOPS /SEMINARS DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT
TOTAL - 2. CAPACITY BUILDING: - i. MSC STUDENTS (5 X $1334.70 PER STUDENT) DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT 16th dec. 2002 Msc student Field subsistence 120.00 14-Jan-03 2 Msc students Field subsistence 360.00
TOTAL 480.00
ii. PhD STUDENTS (2 X $2224.50 PER STUDENT) DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT
TOTAL -
3. INCIDENTALS DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT 17th Dec 2002 TRFIC-Data order,Michigan State Uni 278.00 Facilitating AF42 represent. at Trieste- 17th Dec 2002 managing Depart. Exams 2,800.00
TOTAL 3,078.00
INDIRECT COSTS [J]
10% ADMINISTRATIVE CHARGES DATE REF. CODE DETAILS AMOUNT
TOTAL - CASH ADVANCE INFORMATION AND REQUEST:
A. AMOUNT OF PREVIOUS CASH ADVANCE: DATE: 2-Apr-02 AMOUNT: $ 42,074.00
DATE: 5-Sep-02 AMOUNT: $ 52,909.00
DATE: AMOUNT:
DATE: AMOUNT:
DATE: AMOUNT:
DATE: AMOUNT:
TOTAL(1) $ 94,983.00
B. EXPENDITURES (BY REPORTING PERIOD)
TOTAL EXPENDITURES FOR PERIOD 01 JAN 2002 - 30 JUN 2002: $ 6,025 6025 $ -
TOTAL EXPENDITURES FOR PERIOD 01 JUL 2002 - 31 DEC 2002: $ 10,088
TOTAL EXPENDITURES FOR PERIOD 01 JAN 2003 - 30 JUN 2003:
TOTAL EXPENDITURES FOR PERIOD 01 JUL 2003 - 31 DEC 2003:
TOTAL EXPENDITURES FOR PERIOD 01 JAN 2004 - 30 JUNE 2004:
TOTAL EXPENDITURES FOR PERIOD 01 JUL 2004 - 31 DEC 2004:
TOTAL(2) $ 16,113
C. TOTAL CASH - IN - HAND (TOTAL(1) MINUS TOTAL(2): $ 78,870
D. TOTAL ESTIMATED EXPENSES FOR SUBSEQUENT 8-MONTH PERIOD: $ 79,512 (FROM TABLE ABOVE)
E. TOTAL CASH ADVANCE REQUESTED (D. MINUS C.): $ 642