Middle East Crisis: Scenarios and Opportunities

International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe MIDDLE EAST CRISIS: SCENARIOS AND OPPORTUNITIES Edited by Dr. Viatcheslav Kantor President of the International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe 2020 2 ISBN 978-5-906532-20-6 CONTENT INTRODUCTION Viatcheslav Kantor ..........................................................................5 INTRODUCTION William Perry ...................................................................................7 MAJOR WORLD POWERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Dmitry Trenin ................................................................................ 10 I. INTERESTS OF PRINCIPAL STATES 1.1. IRAN’S GEOPOLITICAL GAMES Vladimir Sazhin ............................................................................. 27 1.2. TURKEY IN THE MIDDLE EAST: IDEOLOGY AND POLITICS Viktor Nadein-Raevsky .................................................................. 51 1.3. ISRAEL’S NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE NEW ENVIRONMENT Irina Zvyagelskaya ......................................................................... 71 1.4. IN SEARCH OF A SETTLEMENT OF THE SYRIAN CONFLICT Stanislav Ivanov ............................................................................ 87 II. NUCLEAR AND MISSILE PROGRAMS 2.1. MISSILE AND NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES OF MIDDLE EAST COUNTRIES Konstantin Bogdanov .................................................................. 111 2.2. THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM – ITS PAST, PRESENT AND UNCERTAIN FUTURE Anatoly Diakov ............................................................................ 131 Middle East Crisis: Scenarios and Opportunities / National Institute of Corporate Reform. – 2020. – 248 pages. III. PROSPECTS FOR PRESERVING THE NPT AND THE JCPOA 3.1. THE NEAR FUTURE OF THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME George Perkovich ......................................................................... 155 Prefaced by the President of the International Luxembourg Forum, this book is based 3.2. THE 2015 JOINT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN OF ACTION on the contributions made by the notable experts at the on-line Conference, organized Tariq Rauf .................................................................................... 167 by the Forum – “New Iranian Crisis: Cessation of Escalation” held on July 14, 2020. The book details the major actors, events and issues that the Middle East is facing and explores 3.3. RE-ENVISIONING THE NPT IN THE COVID-19 ERA the challenges that the crisis in the region presents to the international non-proliferation William Potter ............................................................................. 183 regime and to international security and stability more broadly. IV. MILITARY CAPABILITIES, SCENARIOS AND CONFLICTS 4.1. THE SOLEIMANI ASSASSINATION, LIMITED NUCLEAR OPTIONS AND THE PROBLEM OF ESCALATION CONTROL Robert Legvold ............................................................................. 197 The official website of the International Luxembourg Forum: www.luxembourgforum.org 4.2. MIDDLE EASTERN CONFLICTS: TRANSFORMATION OF REGIONAL CENTERS OF POWER Alexander Shumilin ..................................................................... 216 ISBN 978-5-906532-20-6 4.3. IRAN AND ISRAEL ON A COLLISION COURSE Ariel Levite .................................................................................. 233 © International Luxembourg Forum DECLARATION OF THE CONFERENCE OF THE INTERNATIONAL on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe, 2020 LUXEMBOURG FORUM ON PREVENTING NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE ...... 245 MIDDLE EAST CRISIS: SCENARIOS AND OPPORTUNITIES INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION BY VIATCHESLAV KANTOR, PRESIDENT OF INTERNATIONAL LUXEMBOURG FORUM e are all aware of the turbulence in the Middle East, where the interests and actions of virtually all countries of the Wregion, and various other global actors, are intertwined. The situation in Syria; clashes and military interventions in Libya; the lengthy war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen; and mounting conflict between Israel and Palestine, which is supported by Iran – it is pointless trying to discuss each of these entangled issues separately. Existing and constantly emerging tensions preclude any attempt to find rational solutions that would be acceptable to the major players. Against this backdrop, the crisis surrounding the Iranian nuclear deal, which threatens the runaway nuclearization of the region and beyond, has been overshadowed. Indeed, the effective termination of measures under the 2015 JCPOA, which was the result of many years of arduous negotiations between the US, Russia, China, the UK, France, Germany and Iran, means that the critical situation relating to Iran’s nuclear programme has degenerated to the point that Iran is now able to build a nuclear weapons in the shortest possible time (within a year). Iran is currently violating, one by one, the restrictions and bans es- tablished under the JCPOA, openly obstructing the IAEA’s legitimate operations by increasing its uranium stocks and enrichment levels and blocking IAEA inspections at suspect locations. 4 5 MIDDLE EAST CRISIS: SCENARIOS AND OPPORTUNITIES INTRODUCTION Meanwhile, it continues to test its longer-range missiles and cur- INTRODUCTION BY WILLIAM PERRY1 rently possesses a whole range of missile systems capable of striking countries both in the region and throughout Europe. In late June and in connection with a US resolution to extend the arms embargo on Iran, the Iranian ambassador to the UN, Majid Takht Ravanchi, threatened the US with dire consequences should the Trump administration insist on the re-imposition of UN sanctions. France, the UK and Germany announced that they would not sup- port a re-imposition of sanctions, but called on Tehran to grant access to two clandestine facilities at which nuclear materials could be held. The escalation of political tensions and violence in the Middle East is one of the most dangerous regional crises developing amid a con- frontation between the major world powers and the tragic repercus- sions of the COVID-19 pandemic. he conference of the Luxembourg Forum, planned in June 2020, I believe that urgent measures are required in order to de-es- has been postponed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This calate the crisis in the Middle East. The withdrawal of one of the P5 Tpandemic should remind all of us just how vulnerable we are to countries from the JCPOA in 2018 made way for a new Iranian nucle- events beyond our control. And it also should remind us that a catas- ar crisis. The countries of the European Union remain unable to fully trophe could occur not just from natural causes: We could be the agent implement their obligations under the nuclear deal, owing to the con- of our own destruction, the likely outcome of a nuclear catastrophe. tradictions that have arisen. Each year for the last decade the likelihood of a nuclear catastrophe The European participants could develop economic ways and has increased, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, who just means of fulfilling their obligations under the JCPOA, since the further set their Doomsday Clock to 100 seconds before midnight, closer to development of Iran’s nuclear programme and missile systems poses Doomsday than it was at any time during the Cold War. a particularly severe threat to Europe. A pandemic does not respect national borders, as nations all over The Government of Iran must cease its provocative actions and re- the globe are finding out, to their grief. Likewise, a nuclear war would turn to strict compliance with all provisions under the JCPOA, since all not respect borders, with fallout and nuclear winter affecting every- but one of the participants in the deal are fulfilling their obligations. If one, even those living in nations not a part of the war. Some nations it fails to do so, Iran will face increasingly damaging sanctions from an would be affected later than others, but, in time, all would suffer. In an increasing number of States. all-out nuclear war, there would be no place to hide. The entire world I believe that the implementation of these proposed measures would be devastated, and those who survived would envy those who would serve to de-escalate this new Iranian nuclear crisis, which has had perished. Just as a nuclear war would affect all of us, so all of us the potential to trigger a major war in the Middle East. 1 William Perry – Professor at the Stanford University; Member of the Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum (former U.S. Secretary of Defense); Ph.D. (USA). 6 7 MIDDLE EAST CRISIS: SCENARIOS AND OPPORTUNITIES INTRODUCTION should be concerned about finding ways to avert that disaster. June conference is a matter of serious concern. It will be important Today, the two nations with the largest store of nuclear weapons for the Forum to reschedule the conference as soon as the pandemic are in the early stages of a new nuclear arms race, one that will entail has passed. In the meantime, we should all pursue virtual meetings to the expenditure of trillions of dollars. These new weapons, far from keep alive the dialog on nuclear dangers. It is hard to focus on nucle- making us safer, will actually increase the risk of a nuclear catastrophe. ar issues when the world’s attention is understandably focused on the During the Cold War, both the United States and the Soviet Union COVID-19 pandemic, but a nuclear war would be an even greater ca- recognized the danger posed by our huge nuclear arsenals and nego- tastrophe for the world, and

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