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Utilizing Social Network Analysis in Support of Nation Building Brandon J Air Force Institute of Technology AFIT Scholar Theses and Dissertations Student Graduate Works 3-11-2011 Utilizing Social Network Analysis in Support of Nation Building Brandon J. Bernardoni Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.afit.edu/etd Part of the Operational Research Commons Recommended Citation Bernardoni, Brandon J., "Utilizing Social Network Analysis in Support of Nation Building" (2011). Theses and Dissertations. 1487. https://scholar.afit.edu/etd/1487 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Graduate Works at AFIT Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of AFIT Scholar. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Utilizing Social Network Analysis in Support of Nation Building THESIS Brandon J. Bernardoni, Captain, USAF AFIT/OR/MS/ENS/11-01 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government. This material is declared a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. AFIT/OR/MS/ENS/11-01 Utilizing Social Network Analysis in Support of Nation Building THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the Department of Operational Sciences Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology Air University Air Education and Training Command in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Operations Research Brandon J. Bernardoni Captain, USAF March 2011 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED AFIT/OR/MS/ENS/11-01 Utilizing Social Network Analysis in Support of Nation Building Brandon J. Bernardoni Captain, USAF Approved: //Signed// 18 March 2011 Dr. Richard F. Deckro date Committee Chairman //Signed// 18 March 2011 Maj. Matthew J.D. Robbins Ph.D. date Committee Member AFIT/OR/MS/ENS/11-01 Abstract Social network analysis is a powerful set of techniques used by social scientists to study the formal and informal interrelations in a community. Since 9/11 these techniques have been increasingly utilized by the defense and intelligence communi- ties to analyze terrorist networks to aid in thwarting foes. This study investigates the use of social networks and structural hole theory to facilitate nation building in failed and failing states. Through the investigation of the underlying social struc- ture of a community, identifying structural holes and gaps within the government or society, Security Stabilization Transition and Reconstruction Operations (SSTRO) efforts can be focused to strengthen the host nation government to provide security and unity for its citizens. This investigation focused on exploring techniques that link individuals in the professional and governmental community. It was found that Burt's technique of structural holes can be applied to a national level in order to identify structural gaps within an ethnically fractured failing state. This technique can highlight national, regional, or local holes that can be filled to facilitate nation building. iv AFIT/OR/MS/ENS/11-01 To the King v Acknowledgements Praise be to the God and Father of my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ who always leads us in triumphal procession, for the very breath I breath and the life flowing through my veins. He continually gives me strength, and without Him, I am nothing. Thank you to my beautiful bride and daughter, who tirelessly supported me in this effort. They both listened and aided me in fleshing out ideas, and endured this season of growth right by my side. I love you both infinitely. I would also like to express my appreciate to my research advisor for his guid- ance throughout the course of this thesis. He certainly allowed me to learn and grow during this process. I would also like to thank my reader, who gave great feedback to improve this work. Finally, thank you to the individuals in the Human Terrain System for their help and guidance with my many questions. What a joy it is to continually learn new things. Brandon J. Bernardoni vi Table of Contents Page Abstract . iv Acknowledgements . vi List of Figures . x List of Tables . xii List of Abbreviations . xiv 1. Introduction . 1-1 1.1 Background . 1-1 1.1.1 SSTRO . 1-4 1.1.2 Social Network Analysis . 1-6 1.2 Problem Statement . 1-7 1.3 Methodology and Approach . 1-9 1.4 Research Scope . 1-9 1.5 Assumptions . 1-10 1.6 Overview . 1-11 2. Literature Review . 2-1 2.1 Introduction . 2-1 2.2 Social Network Analysis . 2-1 2.2.1 A Brief History of SNA . 2-1 2.2.2 Definitions of SNA . 2-2 2.2.3 Network Types and Graph Theory . 2-7 2.2.4 Assumptions of SNA . 2-7 vii Page 2.2.5 SNA Data . 2-9 2.2.6 SNA Measures . 2-13 2.3 Structural Holes . 2-17 2.3.1 Structural Holes Measures . 2-22 2.4 Statistical Testing . 2-30 2.4.1 Rank Correlation Coefficient . 2-31 2.5 SNA Literature for Building Business via Structural Holes 2-33 2.6 Failed and Failing States . 2-34 2.7 COIN . 2-38 2.8 Summary . 2-40 3. Methodology . 3-1 3.1 Overview . 3-1 3.2 Notation . 3-1 3.2.1 Graph Theory Notation . 3-1 3.3 Collected Data . 3-2 3.3.1 SNA Boundary Specification . 3-2 3.3.2 Data Collection . 3-3 3.3.3 Database Structure . 3-4 3.4 Coding . 3-7 3.4.1 Python . 3-7 3.4.2 Code Validation . 3-9 4. Analysis, Results, and Implementation . 4-1 4.1 The Failed States Index . 4-1 4.2 Afghanistan - A Brief Background . 4-2 4.2.1 The Social Structure of Afghanistan . 4-4 4.2.2 Afghanistan Government Structure . 4-7 viii Page 4.3 Data Limitations . 4-9 4.4 Analysis . 4-10 4.4.1 Ego Measure Analysis . 4-15 4.4.2 Structural Hole Measure Analysis . 4-18 4.4.3 Statistical Testing . 4-23 4.5 Applications to SSTRO . 4-24 5. Conclusions and Recommendations . 5-1 5.1 Brief Review and Problem Statement . 5-1 5.2 Impact . 5-1 5.2.1 Immediate Impact . 5-2 5.2.2 Long-Term Impact . 5-2 5.3 Areas for Further Research . 5-2 5.3.1 Data Harvesting and Collection . 5-2 5.3.2 Layered Networks . 5-3 5.3.3 Differences of Ego Centrality Measures . 5-3 5.3.4 Weighted Relationships . 5-3 5.4 Summary . 5-4 Appendix A. Generated Code . A-1 Appendix B. Collected Data Sets . B-1 Appendix C. Results . C-1 Appendix D. Blue Dart . D-1 Appendix E. Quad Chart . E-1 Bibliography . BIB-1 ix List of Figures Figure Page 1.1 Fragile States Framework [42:I-3]. 1-3 1.2 Conceptual Insurgency Lifecycle [32:60] . 1-4 1.3 JP 3-0 Phasing Model [43:IV-27] . 1-10 2.1 Graphical Form of Table 2.3 [19:56] . 2-13 2.2 An Illustration of the Structural Holes Argument [15:529] . 2-20 2.3 Benefits and Constraints Associated with Tie Strength . 2-22 2.4 Hole Conditions of Constraint [19:52] . 2-24 2.5 Illustrative Example of Constraint . 2-25 3.1 Access Database Data Structure . 3-7 3.2 Graph of Test Data Set . 3-9 3.3 Visual Breakout of Ego Measures on Test Data Set . 3-12 3.4 Visual Breakout of Structural Hole Measures on Test Data Set 3-15 3.5 Key Actor Analysis on Test Data Set . 3-18 3.6 Color Map of Test Data Set . 3-19 3.7 Hole Signature on Actor 1 from Figure 3.2 . 3-21 3.8 Burt's Hole Signatures for Illustrative Networks . 3-23 3.9 Hole Signatures on Test Data Set for Respective Nodes . 3-24 4.1 Map of Ethnolinguistic Locations in Afghanistan [52] . 4-5 4.2 Afghanistan Data Network Layout . 4-12 4.3 Visual Breakout Structural Hole Measures Afghan Data Set . 4-16 4.4 Key Actor Analysis on Afghan Data Set . 4-17 4.5 Color Map of Afghan Data Set . 4-18 4.6 Visual Breakout of Burt's Measures on Afghan Data Set . 4-19 x Figure Page 4.7 Hole Signature on Node 2118 (Office of the President) . 4-21 4.8 Hole Signatures on Afghan Data Set for Respective Nodes . 4-23 4.9 Network of Node 3001: Pashtun Individuals Within Government 4-26 4.10 Hole Signature for 2010: Mujahideen . 4-27 4.11 Network of Node 2010: Mujahideen . 4-28 4.12 Network of Node 8: President Karzai . 4-29 4.13 Network of Node 3004: Uzbek Influence . 4-30 C.1 Hole Signature on Selected Nodes from Afghan Data Set . C-3 xi List of Tables Table Page 2.1 Example of a Sociomatrix [65:740] . 2-11 2.2 Example of Directed, Weighted Sociomatrix [65:745] . 2-12 2.3 Node Adjacency List [19:56] . 2-12 2.4 Structural Hole Measures relating to Social Capital [18:31] . 2-27 2.5 Burt's two sides to strategic actor strategy [19:230] . 2-27 2.6 Average Constraint from Increasingly Distant Alters [20:302] 2-30 3.1 Name and Organization Data Tables .
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