MALAWI Food Security Update March 2008

• Food security has started to improve as crops have matured and are Figure 1. Current estimated food security becoming ready for harvesting, especially in the southern and parts conditions, first quarter 2008 (Jan - March) of the central region, although maize being harvested now is not yet completely dry. The households that have started to harvest are doing so to increase their access to food because they do not have stocks remaining from the last harvest, maize prices are high in local markets, and stocks in ADMARC markets are limited.

• Although maize was readily available in local markets in March, supplies were generally lower than last season due to exports to Zimbabwe this past season, which has resulted in generally high prices on local markets. Some markets registered prices close to the 2005/06 marketing season prices, when the country faced a food crisis. However, the situation has started to improve, especially in the south where prices have started to decline in many markets.

• There is a lot of speculation on the market that the floods and dry spells in some parts of the country may result in reduced crop production this year and therefore reduced maize supplies on the market in the 2008/09 marketing season. Traders have begun market purchases early despite the relatively high prices, and even ADMARC (which does not normally start buying maize around this time) has already started buying maize. There are fears that if traders are Source: FEWS NET willing to buy maize at these prices, maize is likely to sell at even higher prices to consumers later in the year. However, initial production estimates indicate that the harvest of maize, rice, and cassava will be above average, although these figures are expected to be revised in April.

Seasonal timeline

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MALAWI Food Security Update March 2008

Food security summary

Household food security has started to improve as crops in the field have matured and begin to be harvested. Those households that had run out of food stocks from the 2007 harvest are beginning to depend on the new crop from their fields, resulting in a drop in proportion of households without own‐produced food. This is especially the case in the southern and parts of the central regions, where seasonal rains start early and harvesting begins first. Many households in parts of the south and central region have started harvesting their crops, including maize, resulting in an improvement in household food security, which is normal for this time of year. Even where the maize is not completely dry, households are harvesting the crop and sun‐drying it at home. This is because maize has become expensive in local markets and ADMARC markets do not have adequate stocks to meet the demand. Some households are harvesting early for fear of their maize getting stolen.

However, the northern region requires about another month for the season to progress sufficiently for crops to mature enough to be harvested. As a result, a higher proportion of households in the north continue to depend on the market to purchase their food. Although the households that depend on the market in the north at this time are a minority, food access remains difficult due to the high prices.

Agro‐meteorological situation and seasonal update

Rainfall decreased in March, especially in the southern and parts of the central regions. This is normal, as rains are expected to tail off around this time in those areas, and the decrease in rainfall facilitates the drying of matured crops. While the reduction in the rainfall activity in the southern and central regions at this time of the season is normal, the rains need to continue to sometime in April for the crops to completely mature and become ready for harvesting in the northern region.

Cumulative rainfall from October 2007 through the second dekad of March was normal to above normal for most parts of the country. This has contributed to initial preliminary production estimates of maize, rice, and cassava – some of the most important food security crops – that are higher than the five‐year average and also greater than production last season except for maize. The initial estimate for maize production was 3,282,624 MT, which represents a 50 percent increase from the average but a 5 percent decrease from last season. If these findings hold through the end of the season, the country is poised to have another food surplus this year, although these estimates are very preliminary, and will soon be revised.

The north however has received less rainfall than last year. Additionally, the dry spells that have been experienced in some parts of the country since February have negatively affected the crops planted late at the end of December and early January as this coincided with the critical development stages of flowering to grain filling. These trends in seasonal performance will impact crop production and will be reflected in the next round of production estimates that are due in April.

Markets and prices

The price of maize continued to increase in March in most local markets. According to local market maize price data for the first two to three weeks of March from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, of the 62 local markets for which comparative price data was available for February and March 2008, 71 percent (44 markets) registered maize prices increases while 28 percent (17 markets) registered maize price drops (the remaining 1 market had no change). Maize price increases ranged from 0.8 percent at Luchenza market in Thyolo District to 79.3 percent at Rumphi market in . The decreases ranged from 0.5 percent at Mpamba market in to 31.9 at Bangula market in .

Most of the markets that registered drops in maize prices are in the southern region. Of the 22 markets in the southern region, about 50 percent registered decreases in maize prices between February and March. This is much higher than in the central and northern regions, where only 10 percent and 27 percent registered drops in maize prices over the same period respectively. This is because the rains started earlier in the southern region and some farmers planted early; consequently Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

MALAWI Food Security Update March 2008

the crops in the south were the first to mature and farmers started to harvest early, thereby reducing the market demand for maize and causing local‐market maize price decreases. Current prices are also generally lower in southern districts than in central and northern districts (see Figure 4 below). Some of the maize that is being harvested is not fully dry and farmers have to sun‐dry it at home. Farmers are forced to harvest early as maize is expensive in the local markets and ADMARC markets do not have adequate stocks. The onset of the initial harvest is also easing the maize demand pressure in ADMARC markets.

Average regional local‐market maize prices have continued to increase in the northern and central regions, while they have begun to decrease in the south (Figures 2 and 4). Last season, maize prices remained low throughout the season due to an export ban that limited marketing options for maize. Although this was good for consumers that depend on maize purchases for food, it was not good for farmers and traders that depend on maize sales for their income. This season, the prices were relatively low for about first half of the season, but later started rising rapidly throughout the country as demand started rising and supplies dwindled. Average prices are highest in the north, where prices are very similar to the 2005/06 season when many parts of the country experienced a food security crisis. Compared to the five‐year average, prices this year are following a normal trend, except for the fact that the increase, particularly in the north, is much higher.

Figure 2. Regional average local-market maize price trends Northern region Central region

60.00 60.00 2006/07 2006/07 50.00 2007/08 50.00 2007/08 2005/06 2005/06 40.00 5 yr average 40.00 5 yr average 30.00 30.00 MK/kg

MK/kg 20.00 20.00

10.00 10.00

0.00 0.00

Southern region

60.00 2006/07 50.00 2007/08 2005/06 40.00 5 yr average 30.00

MK/kg 20.00

10.00

0.00

FEWS NET/Malawi; Source: MoAFS

Local‐market maize prices in the first three weeks of March ranged from MK28.27/kg at Mpamba market in Nkhata Bay District to MK90.22/kg at Rumphi market in Rumphi District. All the 65 local markets except three (Mpamba in Nkhata Bay District, Bangula in Nsanje District and Luchenza in Thyolo District) registered average prices above the MK30.00/kg maize selling price in ADMARC markets. The local market maize prices in some of the markets are much higher than the ADMARC price, with Rumphi market registering a price three times the ADMARC price. This is one of the factors encouraging households that rely on market purchases for maize to rush to ADMARC markets. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

MALAWI Food Security Update March 2008

Malawi has had two successive bumper harvests, in the 2005/06 and 2006/07 agricultural seasons. The bumper harvest of 2006/07 coupled with the maize export ban that was still in place at that time to result in maize prices during the 2006/07 marketing season being relative low compared to other seasons. The export ban was removed for the 2007/08 marketing season following the next bumper harvest. Significant quantities of maize were exported as a result, both officially and unofficially. This increased demand for the country’s maize led to reduced supplies on local markets during the second half of the marketing year and resulted in generally higher local‐market maize prices than last season (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Average local-market maize price comparison between March 2007 and 2008

Market Mar-07 Mar-08 % Change Market Mar-07 Mar-08 % Change Market Mar-07 Mar-08 % Change MPAMBA 22.15 28.27 28% PHALOMBE 22.80 35.73 57% NKHATABAY 19.20 49.44 158% BANGULA 14.05 29.46 110% NTAJA 16.16 36.00 123% SHARPEVALEY 16.35 49.80 205% LUCHENZA 22.50 29.75 32% NAMBUMA 23.72 36.06 52% BEMBEKE 18.00 50.00 178% NSANJE 20.71 30.37 47% MADISI 12.63 36.67 190% DOWA 14.00 50.00 257% MISUKU 11.98 30.91 158% MANGOCHI 15.88 38.10 140% MONKEY BAY 18.45 50.10 172% MCHINJI 17.89 30.93 73% ZOMBA 38.80 NKHOTAKOTA 21.21 50.83 140% JALI 31.63 BALAKA 11.36 39.05 244% THETE 17.00 53.33 214% NAMWERA 24.63 31.67 29% NANJIRI 13.80 39.61 187% DWANGWA 24.98 54.34 118% SALIMA 16.67 31.69 90% LIWONDE 20.22 40.00 98% CHATOLOMA 17.00 55.00 224% NCHALO 18.75 31.78 69% THONDWE 25.00 40.00 60% MPONELA 20.33 56.33 177% NGABU 32.00 MZUZU 23.54 40.53 72% NTHALIRE 14.13 57.40 306% MAYAKA 32.00 CHIRADZULU 22.93 40.67 77% KARONGA 12.25 57.59 370% CHIKWAWA 14.00 33.72 141% LIZULU 20.00 40.94 105% HEWE 16.53 57.93 251% BOWE 33.75 CHIMBIYA 21.67 41.67 92% MALOMO 16.02 58.19 263% CHILUMBA 25.49 34.57 36% NKHAMENYA 17.27 42.50 146% LILONGWE 15.25 58.33 283% MWANZA 18.00 34.60 92% LIMBE 13.65 43.83 221% MZIMBA 20.27 59.51 194% MULOZA 13.33 34.78 161% TSANGANO T-OFF 16.25 44.60 174% JENDA 28.57 64.25 125% SANTHE 20.46 35.00 71% NTCHEU 14.89 44.66 200% CHITIPA 14.58 66.13 354% LUNZU 17.44 35.00 101% BVUMBWE 19.34 45.00 133% NTCHISI 21.07 66.74 217% CHINTHECHE 15.00 35.10 134% KASUNGU 15.00 45.17 201% MWANSAMBO 24.39 67.67 177% NKHOMA 19.22 35.40 84% MTAKATAKA 14.75 48.00 225% RUMPHI 19.50 90.22 363% MITUNDU 23.18 35.44 53% NSUNDWE 14.88 49.42 232%

FEWS NET/Malawi; Source: MoAFS

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

MALAWI Food Security Update March 2008

Figure 4. Highest local-market maize price by district in March 2008

ChitipaChitipa

Karonga

Rumphi

Mzimba Nkhata Bay

Nkhotakota Kasungu

NtcNtchisi hisi

DowaDowa Mchinji Mchinji Salima

Lilongwe

Dedza Mangochi

NtcNtcheu heu MachingaMachinga BalakaBalaka

Zomba Maize Prices (MK/kg) Mwanza Blantyre Phalombe 30.00 - 40.00 Chiradzulu Mulanje 40.00 - 60.00 Thyolo Chikwawa 60.00 - 80.00 80.00 - 100.00 District boundaries Nsanje Lake

FEWS NET/Malawi; Source: MoAFS

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5