MALAWI Food Security Update March 2008
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MALAWI Food Security Update March 2008 • Food security has started to improve as crops have matured and are Figure 1. Current estimated food security becoming ready for harvesting, especially in the southern and parts conditions, first quarter 2008 (Jan - March) of the central region, although maize being harvested now is not yet completely dry. The households that have started to harvest are doing so to increase their access to food because they do not have stocks remaining from the last harvest, maize prices are high in local markets, and stocks in ADMARC markets are limited. • Although maize was readily available in local markets in March, supplies were generally lower than last season due to exports to Zimbabwe this past season, which has resulted in generally high prices on local markets. Some markets registered prices close to the 2005/06 marketing season prices, when the country faced a food crisis. However, the situation has started to improve, especially in the south where prices have started to decline in many markets. • There is a lot of speculation on the market that the floods and dry spells in some parts of the country may result in reduced crop production this year and therefore reduced maize supplies on the market in the 2008/09 marketing season. Traders have begun market purchases early despite the relatively high prices, and even ADMARC (which does not normally start buying maize around this time) has already started buying maize. There are fears that if traders are Source: FEWS NET willing to buy maize at these prices, maize is likely to sell at even higher prices to consumers later in the year. However, initial production estimates indicate that the harvest of maize, rice, and cassava will be above average, although these figures are expected to be revised in April. Seasonal timeline FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Malawi 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Tel: +265.1.754.892 publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Washington DC 20006 [email protected] for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] www.fews.net MALAWI Food Security Update March 2008 Food security summary Household food security has started to improve as crops in the field have matured and begin to be harvested. Those households that had run out of food stocks from the 2007 harvest are beginning to depend on the new crop from their fields, resulting in a drop in proportion of households without own‐produced food. This is especially the case in the southern and parts of the central regions, where seasonal rains start early and harvesting begins first. Many households in parts of the south and central region have started harvesting their crops, including maize, resulting in an improvement in household food security, which is normal for this time of year. Even where the maize is not completely dry, households are harvesting the crop and sun‐drying it at home. This is because maize has become expensive in local markets and ADMARC markets do not have adequate stocks to meet the demand. Some households are harvesting early for fear of their maize getting stolen. However, the northern region requires about another month for the season to progress sufficiently for crops to mature enough to be harvested. As a result, a higher proportion of households in the north continue to depend on the market to purchase their food. Although the households that depend on the market in the north at this time are a minority, food access remains difficult due to the high prices. Agro‐meteorological situation and seasonal update Rainfall decreased in March, especially in the southern and parts of the central regions. This is normal, as rains are expected to tail off around this time in those areas, and the decrease in rainfall facilitates the drying of matured crops. While the reduction in the rainfall activity in the southern and central regions at this time of the season is normal, the rains need to continue to sometime in April for the crops to completely mature and become ready for harvesting in the northern region. Cumulative rainfall from October 2007 through the second dekad of March was normal to above normal for most parts of the country. This has contributed to initial preliminary production estimates of maize, rice, and cassava – some of the most important food security crops – that are higher than the five‐year average and also greater than production last season except for maize. The initial estimate for maize production was 3,282,624 MT, which represents a 50 percent increase from the average but a 5 percent decrease from last season. If these findings hold through the end of the season, the country is poised to have another food surplus this year, although these estimates are very preliminary, and will soon be revised. The north however has received less rainfall than last year. Additionally, the dry spells that have been experienced in some parts of the country since February have negatively affected the crops planted late at the end of December and early January as this coincided with the critical development stages of flowering to grain filling. These trends in seasonal performance will impact crop production and will be reflected in the next round of production estimates that are due in April. Markets and prices The price of maize continued to increase in March in most local markets. According to local market maize price data for the first two to three weeks of March from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, of the 62 local markets for which comparative price data was available for February and March 2008, 71 percent (44 markets) registered maize prices increases while 28 percent (17 markets) registered maize price drops (the remaining 1 market had no change). Maize price increases ranged from 0.8 percent at Luchenza market in Thyolo District to 79.3 percent at Rumphi market in Rumphi District. The decreases ranged from 0.5 percent at Mpamba market in Nkhata Bay District to 31.9 at Bangula market in Nsanje District. Most of the markets that registered drops in maize prices are in the southern region. Of the 22 markets in the southern region, about 50 percent registered decreases in maize prices between February and March. This is much higher than in the central and northern regions, where only 10 percent and 27 percent registered drops in maize prices over the same period respectively. This is because the rains started earlier in the southern region and some farmers planted early; consequently Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 MALAWI Food Security Update March 2008 the crops in the south were the first to mature and farmers started to harvest early, thereby reducing the market demand for maize and causing local‐market maize price decreases. Current prices are also generally lower in southern districts than in central and northern districts (see Figure 4 below). Some of the maize that is being harvested is not fully dry and farmers have to sun‐dry it at home. Farmers are forced to harvest early as maize is expensive in the local markets and ADMARC markets do not have adequate stocks. The onset of the initial harvest is also easing the maize demand pressure in ADMARC markets. Average regional local‐market maize prices have continued to increase in the northern and central regions, while they have begun to decrease in the south (Figures 2 and 4). Last season, maize prices remained low throughout the season due to an export ban that limited marketing options for maize. Although this was good for consumers that depend on maize purchases for food, it was not good for farmers and traders that depend on maize sales for their income. This season, the prices were relatively low for about first half of the season, but later started rising rapidly throughout the country as demand started rising and supplies dwindled. Average prices are highest in the north, where prices are very similar to the 2005/06 season when many parts of the country experienced a food security crisis. Compared to the five‐year average, prices this year are following a normal trend, except for the fact that the increase, particularly in the north, is much higher. Figure 2. Regional average local-market maize price trends Northern region Central region 60.00 60.00 2006/07 2006/07 50.00 2007/08 50.00 2007/08 2005/06 2005/06 40.00 5 yr average 40.00 5 yr average 30.00 30.00 MK/kg MK/kg 20.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 Southern region 60.00 2006/07 50.00 2007/08 2005/06 40.00 5 yr average 30.00 MK/kg 20.00 10.00 0.00 FEWS NET/Malawi; Source: MoAFS Local‐market maize prices in the first three weeks of March ranged from MK28.27/kg at Mpamba market in Nkhata Bay District to MK90.22/kg at Rumphi market in Rumphi District. All the 65 local markets except three (Mpamba in Nkhata Bay District, Bangula in Nsanje District and Luchenza in Thyolo District) registered average prices above the MK30.00/kg maize selling price in ADMARC markets. The local market maize prices in some of the markets are much higher than the ADMARC price, with Rumphi market registering a price three times the ADMARC price. This is one of the factors encouraging households that rely on market purchases for maize to rush to ADMARC markets. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 MALAWI Food Security Update March 2008 Malawi has had two successive bumper harvests, in the 2005/06 and 2006/07 agricultural seasons.