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58 MARCH APRIL IT’S NOT IMPORTANT 2015 THE WORLD. PAGE AFTER PAGE

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FRONT PAGE will not give up seeking new recipes to promote integration, we Where we stand support the latter. Between those who claim that the terrorists were provoked by tasteless cartoons and those who believe freedom of or the past 10 years, we have speech is an unalienable human Fstrived to inform our readers right, we choose freedom. about what has happened the world We do not stand with those who over, looking beyond phenomena believe that the Western ideal of and current events to provide facts, solidarity is last century’s model but forecasts and analyses that stem with those who seek a new from studies, interviews and understanding of democratic journalistic fieldwork. Which have coexistence that does not consider sometimes helped us even skill, entrepreneurship and merit to anticipate events. be profane. It is with them that we One example is the previous issue’s are committed to finding the road to “East-West” editorial, which recovery from a crisis that is not examined the disturbing merely economic but social and phenomenon of the recruitment of cultural as well. foreign fighters by terrorist groups, We believe that when our readers only to find them carrying out the hear expert economists such as most fearsome act of terrorism in Nouriel Roubini and John Paulson Europe – in its very heart – of predicting disasters from the Davos recent years. pulpits that turn out to be entirely The time has come to state our wrong – for example, the collapse of horizons clearly in an increasingly the euro by the end of 2012 – they confusing and complex world. want us to be swift, brave and We intend to stand tall, to ensure outspoken in countering that our readers – who are growing propagandistic ideas with serious, in numbers and hail from all corners in-depth analyses. of the globe – can always trust our We are determined to accompany viewpoint to be reliable, even if they our readers for decades to come by don’t always agree with it. continuing to stimulate an In other words, it is time to say increasingly cohesive community explicitly that we are on the side of and an increasingly informed global those dedicated to making the debate. I European integration model work and not those who criticize it on a daily basis. Between those who believe that migration should be curbed with walls and those who

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east THE WORLD. PAGE AFTER PAGE year XI · n. 58 · march april 2015 DIRECTOR Benedetta Fabbri SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE ADVISORY BOARD Federico Ghizzoni (PRESIDENT), Giuseppe Scognamiglio (VICE-PRESIDENT), Reuben Abraham, Giuliano Amato, Umit Boyner, Joschka Fischer, Silvia Francescon, Enrico Giovannini, Aleksander Kwasniewski, Enrico Letta, Myrta Merlino, Giovanni Moro, Attilio Maria Contents Navarra, Vincenzo Nigro, Fabrizio Onida, Pier Carlo march april Padoan, Lapo Pistelli, Romano Prodi, Riccardo Pugnalin, Alexei Pushkov, Giuseppe Recchi, Anne- twothousandﬁfteen Marie Slaughter, Javier Solana, Boris Tadic, Danilo Taino, Zuo Xuejin, Matteo Zuppi CORRESPONDENT COMMITTEE Aldo Bonomi, Massimo Cacciari, Seyda Canepa, 1 Front page Ferruccio De Bortoli, Francesca Gori, Lev Gudkov, 8 UlrikeGuérot,WojciechJagielski,PredragMatvejevic, 4 no Comment MoniOvadia, Soli Özel, Lucrezia Reichlin, Sergio Romano, Gyorgy Schoepflin, Luigi Tomba by Mana Neyestani EDITORIAL COMMITTEE Silvia Francescon, Francesca Nenci, Fabrizia Falzetti, 6 EAST-WEST Roberta Ceccarelli, Simone Cofferati, Fabrizio Goria, Nicholas Hunt, Barbara Modugno, Valentina the Caliph's Foreign Legion Pascucci, Claudio Patriarca, Ilaria Sbarigia, Silvia by Giuseppe Scognamiglio Settecasi, Maja Kecojevic PUBLISHER Europeye srl - Via Gregorio VII, 368 - 00165 Roma [email protected] cover www.eastonline.eu - www.europeye.com BOARD OF DIRECTORS EUROPEYE 8 the Charlie eﬀect Giuseppe Scognamiglio (PRESIDENT), Francesca Nenci (DIRECTOR), Silvia Francescon (DIRECTOR), Simone by Fadi Elhusseini Cofferati (DIRECTOR), Giuseppe Verderese (DIRECTOR), Riccardo Pugnalin (DIRECTOR), Attilio Maria Navarra 11 the tables are turned (DIRECTOR), Fabrizia Falzetti (EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR) by Alberto Negri NEWSROOM 22 Fabrizia Falzetti, Maja Kecojevic, Silvia Settecasi, Fabrizio Goria (WEB), Roberta Ceccarelli (WEB), 12 Is makes big money Valentina Pascucci (WEB) by Francesca Nenci [email protected] ART DIRECTOR 15 the Web as oracle Claudio Patriarca - [email protected] GRAPHIC DESIGNER by A. Ceron, L. Curini, S. M. Iacus Flora Dicarlo - [email protected] PHOTOEDITOR Ilaria Sbarigia - [email protected] europe ENGLISH LANGUAGE EDITOR Nicholas Hunt 18 Brussels notebook ENGLISH LANGUAGE REVIEW COMMITTEE Nicholas Hunt, Aminda Leigh, Natasha Senjanovic by Ann Cahill TRANSLATORS Marina Astrologo, Teresa Ciuffoletti, Darcy Di Mona, 19 eU hits and myths Helen Farrell, Alessandra Guidoni, Aminda Leigh, Valentina Mazzei, Nicholas Neiger, Guiomar by Pagellapolitica.it Parada, Natasha Senjanovic WEBMASTER 22 EUROPEAN UNION Luca Pizzato - [email protected] MARKETING AND ADVERTISING the real Donald tusk Theresa Lindo - [email protected] by Jan Krzysztof Bielecki PHOTOGRAPHIC AGENCIES Contrasto, Reuters, Getty Images 28 24 the eU, a legal requirement BACK ISSUES STAFF srl - tel. +39 02 4570 2415 - by Patrizia De Pasquale [email protected] SUBSCRIPTIONS 26 POINTOF VIEW www.eastonline.eu - [email protected] PRINTERS Iran, from rogue state Arti Grafiche Boccia - www.artigraficheboccia.com to reliable ally? NEWSAGENT DISTRIBUTION Messaggerie Periodici - www.mepe.it by R. Prodi and G. Cucchi BOOKSHOP DISTRIBUTION Johnsons Books srl - www.johnsons.it 28 UKRAINE AIRPORT DISTRIBUTION Johnsons Inflight News Italia srl - www.johnsons.it Putin's successful strategy HOTEL DISTRIBUTION by Paul Lendvai P Publishing srl - www.johnsons.it INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION 30 the ultras' role in the war A.I.E. www.aie-mag.com ENGLISH LANGUAGE DISTRIBUTION IN ITALY by Anna Zafesova Messinter - www.messinter.it Publication registered with the Court of Milan n. 451 / 21-06-2004 38 All rights © Europeye COVER ILLUSTRATION: EMILIO GIANNELLI

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79 32 ESTONIA A small learned state 46

goes to vote by Mara Gergolet 34 TURKEY the sultan's rivals world by Marta Ottaviani 76 Washington notebook 36 CYPRUS by Luca Borsari elections across the Wall by Giampaolo Cadalanu 77 Us: hits and myths by Luca Borsari 38 THE VATICAN the Church splits over middle east and africa new marriages 100 79 EGYPT by Francesco Anfossi the Pharoah vs the Caliph 40 EUROPEANCONSCIE NCE by G. Bertoluzzi and C. Spocci success in space by Emanuele Colombo 82 ISRAEL asia elections and Us tensions 90 CHINA chronicles by Gabriele Barbati Xi Jinping's Imperial dream 84 LIBYA by Federico Brusadelli 42 How start-ups start too many interests at stake by Nanxi Liu 93 JAPAN by K. Mezran and N. Pedde 43 Riding the digital economy Where to, Japan? 86 MIDDLE EAST & USA by Federico Treu by Pio D’Emilia America heading east? 44 Aladin, from sana'a to Rome by Viviana Mazza 96 TECHNOLOGY & RESOURCES by Giovanni Piazzese 88 NIGERIA the Artic Conquest by Jacopo Pasotti 46 IntervIew : Haruhiko Kuroda the uphill struggle Bank of Japan governor of Africapitalism americas by Fabrizio Goria by Stella Morgana 98 ARGENTINA A make or break year DOSSIER: TTIP: TO bE OR nOT TO bE by Jesus Rodriguez 100 CUBA 50 PORTFOLIO 64 The Eurasian 74 THE EAST BOOK the ‘Yanquis’ are back Trade globetrotters economic union The crisis according by Francisco Forteza 56 MARKETS AND SOCIETIES by Michael Gross to Martin Wolf 102 the devil's in the details TTIP - How 66 The Turkish point by Fabrizio Goria by Diana Ferrero international trade of view 75 FOOD & CULTURE European gourmets will change by Soli Özel 104 BADGIR LS by Carlo Calenda 68 South-south trade up in arms by Elisabeth Roman the tsarina, the empress 58 EU and US, together denting northern and the Popess markets for growth by James Hansen by Alessia Mosca by Stefania Pensabene 60 Multinationals' double 71 The European Union 106 FINANCIAL TRENDS standards and its trade partners 72 oil prices: winners and losers by Erik F. Nielsen by Francesco Guarascio CULTURAL NOTEBOOK 62 How strategic 72 MUSIC is the Pact? The British Invasion by Josef Janning by Alberto Piccinini 73 ENTERTAINMENT March april 2015 | 3 From idiot box to empire by Natasha Senjanovic 004-005_E_Graphic Nov 58_Layout 1 13/02/15 18:44 Pagina 4

no comment by Mana Neyestani

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nations have entered Syria to help topple how many Muslims are there in Europe? The the caliph's President Bashar al-Assad's regime and figures say 5.8% of the population, yet have then joined the ranks of the Islamic many believe the number is much higher. Foreign State. A study by the Washington Institute According to an Ipsos MORI poll of citizens in for Near East Policy revealed that their 14 countries (with the EU member states Legion motivations range from “pro-democratic chosen from those with the largest revolutionary fervor to the most extreme population and as representative of the Closing borders won't sectarian and hardline Islamist viewpoints bloc), most of those surveyed have a put an end to terrorist imaginable”. The report was based on an mistaken perception of the situation in their inﬁltration analysis of 280 ‘martyr’ postings on jihadist own country. This misconception is very websites, Facebook and Twitter, designed striking in the sphere of religion. In France, by Giuseppe Scognamiglio to encourage potential emulators to follow for example, interviewees believed Muslims the example of the heroes in this new holy represent 31% of the population, while the he Paris massacre and the terrorist war. The majority of these fighters are exact figure is only 8%. attacks that followed in France and Libyans and Saudis (as was the case in Iraq), Another respected body, the Pew Research TBelgium have brought some serious while the influx of Tunisians is probably Center, has published research indicating issues out into the open: namely, the safety connected to disillusionment in the that Italy, Greece and Poland are very of our society and the integration of aftermath of the Arab Spring uprisings. averse to the integration of Muslims. minorities. Tackling both problems The foreign fighter issue has also spread to Paradoxically, these three countries host simultaneously might lead to heavy- Europe, so it would seem advisable to try fewer Muslims that Spain, Germany, France handed distortions; it's not easy to maintain and understand to what extent. First of all, and Great Britain. France, with the largest a balanced approach when facing tough decisions. With the help of the available 5 Muslim population 21 data we can try and provide a useful % of total, 2010 5 17 contribution. The figures have actually above 7.0 6 changed substantially since Paris: 5.1-7 BRITAIN 19 investigations are much more focused and 3.1-5.0 SWEDEN 1.1 – 3.0 0.1 the unfolding events reveal how dramatic 6 5 1.0 & below GERMANY the situation actually is, much worse than 29 expected at the end of last year. Our Public estimates of Muslim population POLAND readers may recall that our January editorial %, 2014 BELGIUM discussed the foreign fighter phenomenon, Public’s before the Charlie Hebdo attack, answer illustrating the anomaly of this trend and Actual 8 population the logistic and social difficulties 31 hampering the integration of Islamic communities in a Europe ravaged by years FRANCE 0.1 7 of economic and political crises. The globe shown on the next page provides

details of the movements of the new HUNGARY legionaries, won over by the Caliphate’s 2 16 4 ideology: 15,000 militants from at least 80 20

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Countries from FoREign FightERs | which citizens or residents have reportedly gone to fight.

rather than terrorism. Instead of suspending or revising the agreement, it could be more useful to consider how to adapt it to new anti-terrorist needs and help strengthen external border controls. On the other hand, a Commission project on inter-state transmission of more sensitive data, presented to the European Parliament in 2011 is at a standstill. This directive concerns the sharing of passenger name records, including passengers’ travel itinerary, ticket information, contact details, travel agent, payment methods and baggage information. This kind of data would allow the identification of people never previously suspected, identified through cross-checks, and thus a truly Note: Figures for fighters Small numbers of fighters from Western Europe are are also reported to have effective tool for criminal intelligence and from the International Center for come from Bangladesh, Chile, the Study of Radicalization’s high Ivory Coast, Japan, Malaysia, estimate category. All other numbers are Maldives, New Zealand, Philippines, fighting terrorism. MEPs have not yet from the Soufan Group. Per-country fighter Senegal, Singapore and Trinidad and Tobago. estimates determined from a date range of Dec. These countries are not shown because they are reached an agreement on the directive. The 2013 to Oct. 2014. off the map. sticking point is the protection of personal intERnationaL cEntER FoR thE study oF RadicaLisation and PoLiticaL vioLEncE (iscR), thE souFan gRouP, cia. gEnE thoRP; juLiE tatE and swati shaRma. privacy, but, in the light of recent events, Muslim population in the EU, is also the look at the rationale behind Schengen to one can logically expect work on this country most in favour of Muslims, further realise where the mistake lies. The legislation to speed up. proof that ignorance is a barrier to Agreement first came into being in 1985 Thus, European states are divided over the integration. and so far has been implemented by 22 issue of security, at the very time when one Finally, let’s take a look at the measures member states with the addition of Iceland, would hope for a common stance and a being introduced. In recent weeks, Western Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein. Of jointly approved strategy. This is governments have met several times, in the six remaining EU states, Bulgaria, reminiscent of the emotional reaction to various formations, to tackle the terrorist Romania, Croatia and Cyprus are soon set to the sovereign debt crisis, that led to the threat and stop recruitment of foreign join, while the UK and Ireland have been creation of useless barriers instead of fighters. One hot topic in particular stands granted an opt-out clause. The purpose of focusing on integration. Once again, the out in Europe, namely the Schengen the Schengen area is to provide Europe with answer is to establish a Brussels-centred Agreement, now central to the European a single external border, abolish internal hub to fight terrorism (just as the Single policy debate. The French and Spanish barriers between states and apply common Supervisory Mechanism is based in Interior Ministers have asked for the visa- regulations for visas and asylum rights. It Frankfurt), instead of fuelling divisions. free area to be reviewed or even was reinforced by a 2004 EU directive that Fear cannot diminish European rights, suspended, calling for the reintroduction of requires airlines to collect passenger data those fundamental cornerstones of border checks. This is a typically emotional (name, birthday, citizenship, passport European civilisation! I and mistaken reaction to a problem that has number) and forward it to the European no easy solution and could endanger hard- border authorities. But this directive was Giuseppe Scognamiglio is the publisher fought personal freedoms. You only have to supposed to help fight illegal immigration of East.

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re we witnessing the early warning signs of a religious war? Is this the beginning The Charlie A of a new violent era where no nation will be spared? What does this radical stance wish to achieve by committing such acts? Why is Eﬀect this happening? And is there a solution? These are a few questions that appear in the daily de- Thoughts and considerations bates and articles in the aftermath of the Paris of a Muslim who is against a clash events. It is crucial to investigate the backgrounds of this state of affairs, particularly from a Middle between Islam and the West Eastern and Muslim perspective, in order to pro- by Fadi Elhusseini vide sound analysis and practical prognoses. On the whole, the direct or at least the known reason for the Paris attacks (which claimed the lives of Christians, Jews and Mus- lims) was the mocking of the Prophet Muham- mad in caricatures published by the French weekly Charlie Hebdo. These caricatures, among other similar acts, provoked millions of 008-017_E_TerrorismoB_Layout 1 16/02/15 13:04 Pagina 9

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Muslims who instantaneously demonstrated and strongly denounced, yet the whole incident and denounced these acts. carries the issue of freedom of speech onto a sec- Is it a ‘war’ between Islamism and the West? ond level of discussion. For Pope Francis, there The simple answer: NO. The Muslim community are limits to free speech. Commenting on these in Europe and worldwide condemned the Paris caricatures, Pope Francis said that religious free- attacks. This position was clearly reflected in the dom and freedom of expression are “fundamental statement given by Turkish Prime Minister human rights”. But they are also not total liberties. Ahmet Davutoğlu who opposed all forms of vio- “There is a limit”, he added. “Every religion lence yet condemned any contempt or insults di- has its dignity. I cannot mock a religion that re- rected at the prophet Muhammad that would be spects human life and the human person”. perceived as a “dagger stuck” in Muslim hearts. Thus, it is crucial to draw a clear line around Other similar positions followed suit, especially freedom of expression and speech and to ensure with the weekly Charlie Hebdo’s decision to equal treatment so as not to grant freedom of reprint the tasteless cartoons ridiculing the speech on specific issues and punish perpetrators prophet Mohammed. Qatar, for instance, saw this in other situations. act as “fuelling hatred and anger”. Nonetheless, the whole matter along with the It is true that the violent backlash and the Paris incident goes beyond freedom of speech, crime that was committed as a response to the seeing as the issue of radicalism can’t in fact be

publication of these cartoons was unacceptable pegged back to any of these levels.  REUTERS/CONTRASTO/PHILIPPE WOJAZER 008-017_E_TerrorismoB_Layout 1 16/02/15 13:04 Pagina 10

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In October 2014, a terrorist attack targeted Canada’s capital just two days after another attack in which a man ran down a Canadian sol- dier. Many other similar terrorist attacks took place across the globe, including in Muslim and Middle Eastern countries. It is difficult to assess the jihadists' own motives for carrying out their attacks. Each jihadist has his own beliefs, psy- chology and conditions. However, one can single out the convergence of various factors that have fostered the rise of the jihadist phenomenon and made it easier for radical organizations to recruit increasing numbers of jihadists. The first factor is the absence of a specific and identifiable religious reference. Until the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the wake of World War I, Muslims had one reference and one alone -- the Sultan. The Sultan -- known for his wisdom, piety and knowledge -- was the sole reference point that provided a structure to the life of Muslims. With the collapse of the Empire in 1923, this reference was lost and Islamic forces tried to bring back the Islamic state. The first attempt was known as the Muslim Brotherhood, established in 1928, which led to the proliferation of hundreds of groups, movements and parties. Each movement had its own understanding and expla- nation of Islam and of the term “jihad” that, in

many cases, implied very strict and unerring in- Similarly, in an interview with Newsmax TV, 0 Members of the terpretations of the religion. former US Congressman Ron Paul argues that ji- Board of Deputies of British Jews hold up The second factor that played a crucial role in hadists or radicals exist in every religion and signs reading "I am the rise of these groups and the growing num- don't attack the West because of its freedom and Charlie", "I am Jewish", bers of jihadi recruits was Western mistakes, prosperity. He contends that those who commit "I am ahmed". with the United States in the forefront in this cat- terrorist attacks come from countries previously H the anti-terrorism egory. Former French Prime Minister Dominique occupied by the US where tens of thousands march in Paris after the attack on the De Villepin has openly admitted that he holds have been killed. Paul also remarks that on the satirical newspaper Western foreign policy responsible for the multi- day when the Paris attacks claimed the lives of Charlie Hebdo. the largest demonstration plication of terrorist hotspots around the world 17 people, US bombs killed 50 civilians in Syria, in France's history was and views the Islamic State (IS) as the “deformed a fact that did not make media headlines. attended by more than 50 heads of state child” of this policy. De Villepin finds Western A third factor is the widespread economic and government, foreign policy arrogant and inconsistent and problems and profound political and social griev- including Benjamin urges Europe and the United States to learn from ances rife in Arab and Muslim societies, associ- Netanyahu and abu Mazen. past experiences. ated with frustration and disbelief in their

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The tables are turned When oil prices determine foreign policy and global enterprise guarantees democracy, then terrorists can have a free hand

by Alberto Negri

he price of oil is never right, just like the price we pay for peace, our well-being or T our values. Every so often it dawns on us. When a harrowing pool of blood on a Parisian pavement wakes us from our sleepwalking state, we squint at the world swimming before us as we try to focus on reality. We realise we have made the wrong choices, we’ve added to global disor- der and we’re surrounded by ambiguous allies who are looking to their own survival, not ours. If the enemy is devious and unpredictable, like terrorism, fear creeps into the mix, something we must exorcise by finding someone to fight. REUTERS/ CONTRASTO/STEFAN WERMUTH We are simultaneously moralists, militarists regimes, often thought to be under the Western and pacifists. But for a few days, impotence is thumb. The Arab Spring has done much to pro- replaced by a feeling of togetherness, of the kind vide these forces with some kind of impetus, par- felt by crisis-stricken families facing a bereave- ticularly the Islamic factions, who had previously ment. Then we go back to business as usual, ar- been deprived of their rights by their own regimes. guing, parting ways, trying to get one up on In a nutshell, one should concede that no sin- others, congratulating ourselves for our sly gle military or security action can hope to solve shrewdness. the issue of radicalism. A comprehensive plan Today, Europe is more in fear of the Islamic that must include social, media, political and cul- jihad than of the war in Ukraine, in the same tural aspects and backgrounds might have a bet- way that it tolerated 200,000 deaths on its ter chance of success. I doorstep during the Balkan war without lifting a finger. Dutch UN peacekeepers toasted with Fadi ElHusseini is studying for his doctorate at the Uni- Bosnian Serb General Ratko Mladic in Sre- versity of Sunderland, UK and is a political and media con- brenica during the hot summer of 1995, while a sultant in Canada. massacre of more than 7,000 Bosnian Mus- 

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lims was being planned right under their noses. No one did a thing until the Americans decided to intervene. It is worth remembering that the European Union, comprising 28 heterogeneous countries, still lacks a common foreign and defence policy at a time when sovereign states no longer control the game. They have their hands full with the challenges posed by financial markets, global businesses that produce their own rules (e.g., the internet) and players who can attack and overthrow the system at any time and with the most unpredictable kinds of weaponry. This is the sea Europe finds itself swimming

in at the start of 2015. There are no longer any REUTERS CONTRASTO/ERIC GAILLARD rules, no reliable forecasts. Take oil, one example out of many. Just refer back to last year’s archives: the International Energy Agency predicted IS makes big money with the decision of the saudi global oil demand would rise by the equivalent oil minister, ali al-Naimi, within by Francesca Nenci of 1.2 million barrels a day. Experts agreed with oPeC to not reduce oil this forecast, saying the price would remain “sta- he sharp decline in oil production despite the drop in ble, as it has done in the last five years”. tprices at the end of 2014 price, there are those who’ve While Europe was marching in remembrance has once again brought to light suggested this is a direct form of the Charlie Hebdo massacre, oil prices sank to the political implications of of support for the us to make a six-year low, dropping 45% in value. But the economic choices that affect the russian sanctions more price crash has affected other primary raw mate- commodities, as is the case effective. others see it aimed rials too, such as copper, coffee and even orange with oPeC decisions. Faced at the us fracking industry, juice. Even winter vitamins have lost their ap- peal. Should we be elated or is this just another CouNtry ProDuCtIoN CoNsuMPtIoN Delta misunderstanding? Everything started when Saudi Arabia de- 1. saudi Arabia 11.5 3.1 8.4 cided not to cut OPEC’s oil production. The rea- 2. Russian Federation 10.8 3.3 7.5 sons for this were probably to capture market share and put pressure on the economies of Iran 3. Us 10.0 18.9 — 8.9 and Russia, in synch with the American strategic 4. China 4.2 10.8 — 6.6 approach. What sanctions are more effective and damaging against oil and gas exporting countries 5. Canada 3.9 2.4 1.5 than a slump in energy prices? The oil cartel is 6. United Arab Emirates 3.6 0.8 2.8 now a rusty, teetering signpost planted in the middle of the convergence between markets and 7. Iran 3.6 2.0 1.6 geopolitical interests. 8. Iraq 3.1 0.7 2.4 OPEC has been undermined by the escalat- ing tensions between the Sunni Arab producers 9. Kuwait 3.1 0.5 2.6 10. Mexico 2.9 2.0 0.9

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in the Gulf led by Riyadh and the Iran-Iraq Shi- ‘sell’ to a hostile Congress and allies who are - a bird's eye view of ite tandem. This latest move was a victory for equally reluctant, if not downright against it, such the Paris march. the line promoted by Saudi Arabia and its allies as Israel and the Gulf monarchies. in the Gulf (the United Arab Emirates and For more than a year, the Saudis have clearly Kuwait). Torn between the new competition outlined their policy on Iran to the Russians, the from North American oil and gas producers and Iranians and above all to the Americans. The the better, more competitive conditions offered Wahhabi monarchy can only accept a return of by the Saudis, the other members in OPEC had the Islamic republic of the ayatollahs to the in- to toe the line. ternational talks if it is weakened, at least eco- But the penny has dropped with the Iranians nomically. This would make it more difficult for too. This drop in the cost of crude oil is the price Tehran to give military and financial support to they have to pay – maybe rather high, but per- Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and to the Shi- haps convenient and inescapable in the end – in ite government in Baghdad. It would also put the exchange for another signature. That sealing the brakes on Iran in the Arabian Peninsula, the nuclear deal that Barack Obama must eventually Saudis’ backyard. 

which extracts oil and gas from the choices made by the saudi Washington Institute for Near CoNsuMPtIoN shale rock. this form of oil minister. after the tragic east Policy estimates that in (percentage ofworld total, source BP Statistical Review): extraction, depending on the events at the Charlie Hebdo 2013 and 2014 Is received • North America 24. 5% kind of installation, is only offices in Paris, it’s all the more more than $40 million dollars Us 19.9% profitable within a price range obvious considering the (€35m) in funding from • south and Central America 7.4% brazil 3.2% of $40 and $115 (€35 to wealth of the main terrorist Persian Gulf states and, in • Europe and Eurasia 21% €100). Producing a barrel of oil organizations. the Islamic particular, saudi arabia, Qatar Russia 3.7% • Middle East 9.2% in the arab peninsula costs as state (Is) is not just the world’s and Kuwait, who are among saudi Arabia 3.2% little as $12 (€10). the political largest terrorist organisation, the largest oil producers in the • Africa 4.1% effects of oil do not end with it is also the richest. the world. • Asia/Pacific 33.8% China 12.1% oECd 49.2% Distribution of proven reserves in 1993, 2003 and 2013 Non oECd 50.8% EU 14.5% Former soviet Union 5.1% Middle east south and Central america ProDuCtIoN North america 2.5 (percentage of world total, 7.7 europe and eurasia source BP Statistical Review): africa • North America 18.9% 3.0 8.8 UsA 10.8% asia/Pacific 8.0 • south and Central America 9.1% Venezuela 3.3% 8.7 • Europe and Eurasia 20.2% 3.7 2013 5.9 Russia 12.9% total 47.9 2003 13.6 • Middle East 32.2% 7.5 1687.9* total saudi Arabia 13.1% 1993 16.9 1334.1* 55.9 • Africa 10.1% 11.6 total Nigeria 2.7% 1041.9* • Asia/Pacific 9.5% 7.7 63.6 China 5%

7.5 19.5 oECd 23% Non oECd 77% oPEC 42.1% Non oPEC 41.4% * tHoUsANds oF MIllIoNs oF bARREls EU 1.7% Former soviet Union 16.4% 008-017_E_TerrorismoB_Layout 1 16/02/15 13:04 Pagina 14

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/ a student In Yemen, with the rise of the Houthi, a Shi- but only superficially. Saudi Arabia already in- demonstration in ite clan from the north backed by the Iranians, tervened a few years ago, bombing the Houthi somalia against Charlie Hebdo. the future of the entire Arabian Peninsula and Shiites in the north. The campaign was close to the fight against al-Qaeda terrorism is at stake. a wash out. Disconcerting military limitations / a demonstration in Yemen, long forgotten until al-Qaeda claimed came to light, to the point where the Saudis only Mali. one of the placards reads, "I'm not responsibility for the Parisian attacks, is the bat- avoided a debacle by enlisting Yemenite soldiers Charlie, nor a terrorist. tleground of another proxy war between Shiites and the unemployed. Down with Charlie. I am Muslim. long live and Sunnis, like in Syria and Iraq. Here, the Saudi Arabia feels the pressure from the Is- Islam". presence of Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two lamic State (IS) on its northern borders, and the sponsors in the shadows of the militias that squeeze from the Houthi rebels and al-Qaeda in fight over power and oil, seems more discreet, the south, a shifting border that runs along lines in the sand, where loyalty to the crown matters less than that to clans and tribes. All this is happening at a time of great uncertainty for the succession in Riyadh, which has been unable to find an endgame in Syria or Iraq. This is the new Middle East, an extremely vague notion in itself: a battleground lying between Syria and Iraq where the war against IS is being waged. It is a geographic map on paper with flexible and uncertain borders, which has swallowed up the delimitations established by the old raìs dictatorships, replaced by new mas- ters and powers. Europe and the West have made the situation worse in the Middle East and North Africa, thanks to their fickleness: giving support to the revolutionaries of the Arab Spring, as they did in

REUTERS/CONTRASTO/JOE PENNEY Libya, then standing alongside authoritarian regimes out of fear of the Islamists, with equally questionable results. But today, are we more afraid for our oil supplies or the failure of entire countries on the shores of the Mediterranean? The idea in 2003 was to export democracy to

REUTERS/ CONTRASTO/FEISAL OMAR Iraq with the catastrophic outcome clear for all to see, and now even the democracy around us is less of a given and perhaps more a mere hope. Topping up with cheap petrol for a few months, or a while longer, is not a victory and not even a bonus for the future. I

Alberto Negri is an international policy board member of the think tank ISPI and a correspondent for il Sole 24 Ore.

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HOLY WAR! |

lation that could potentially be connected to social phenomena such as uprisings, economic The Webasoracle crises and even natural disasters. This view of analyses gleaned from the web, Immigration, terrorism and Islamophobia: as a modern-day oracle that can help us better un- what's in store in 2015? derstand what to expect from the near future, forms the necessary basis for what we set out to by Andrea Ceron, luigi Curini and stefano M. Iacus do for East. We have plumbed the internet in order to get a grasp of the most (and least) widespread expectations for 2015 in relation to the he advent of big data taken from the web hottest international policy issues in Europe, the is triggering a new scientific revolution US and Asia (as the graphs show). Among these T that might radically change the way in topics, the Islamic State (IS) and the relationship which we view the world and the future. Indeed, between the Western and Islamic worlds were the internet and social networks are increasingly ones that couldn't go begging. being used to understand the development of From 1 October to 31 December 2014, we complex social phenomena and predict both real- downloaded and analyzed approximately 2.3 time and future events – nowcasting and forecast- million comments that made reference to IS, ing – by relying on the wisdom-of-the-crowd Islam and the Arab world, separating those principle. This idea, which on first sight might re- posted on social networks (approximately 1.8 semble a contemporary version of Isaac Asimov's million) from those published on news websites psychohistory, is held in high regard by some gov- written in English and geolocated in the United ernments, including Washington, which has been States and Europe. financing intelligence programmes such as Open The results show that at the end of 2014 the Source Indicators (OSI) and companies like web – especially, and revealingly, European web- Recorded Future (which has received further sites – addressed the development in relations be- funding from the CIA and Google). The ultimate tween the Islamic world and the West with objective is anticipating mood shifts in the popu- obvious concern. Indeed, 93.4% of comments 

the most-discussed issues in social media and source distribution are a distribution 4.7 online news sources in europe, the us and asia 13.0 8.7 euroPe social Media News online 1) Arab world Democracy 18.9 21.7 2) Russia Arab world 53.6 3) Democracy privacy

uNIteD states 2.1 68.1 social Media News online 9.2 1) Health care Health care Blog other europe 2) Racial revolts Arab world News Forum us 3) climate change inequality Facebook twitter asia asIa social Media News online 1) corruption china Gender distribution 2) Democracy Democracy 40% WoMeN 3) china inequality 60% MeN

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cover | HOLY WAR!

. From the graphs on th e right one can make How will the crucial international policy issues How will the crucial international policy issues out the relative ev olve according to the european social media? evolve according to european online news? degree of 100 80 optimism/pessimism 93.4 74.7 reported in online 77.4 80 60.4 58.8 comments related to 69.8 60 future scenarios for 60 39.6 40.2 the most-discussed 40 40 international policy 30.2 25.3 issues among 22.6 20 europeans on the web 20 6.6 in 2014. 0 0 Arab world Russia Democracy Arab world Privacy Democracy

Pessimistic Optimistic Pessimistic Optimistic

Note: neutral comments are not included in the tally

arab World: what will happen according arab World: what will happen according to the european social media? to the european online news sites?

IS will get stronger 24.3 Immigration will be restricted 29.4

Immigration will be restricted 22.7 Risk of terrorist attacks 26.7 IS will be defeated 2.3 Iran will be a threat 3.1 0510 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Note: the graphs report the two most predominant opinions and the one that is least discussed

How will the crucial international policy issues How will the crucial international policy issues evolve according to the us social media? evolve according to the us online news sites?

100 93.6 80 72.5

80 59.1 67.9 60 64.6 51.2 48.8 60 40.9 40

40 32.1 35.4 27.5 20 20 6.4 0 0 Racial revolts Climate change Health System Arab World Health System Inequalities

Pessimistic Optimistic Pessimistic Optimistic

Note: neutral comments are not included in the tally

racial revolts: what will happen according arab World: what will happen according to us social media? to us online news sites?

Racial prejudice and discrim- Immigration will be restricted ination will remain unchanged 34.2 33.2 Revolts and killings will continue 26.9 IS will grow stronger 24.1 The media will cover 5.1 Iran will embrace democracy 7.6 racial tension 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Note: the graphs report the two most predominant opinions and the one that is least discussed

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HOLY WAR! |

posted on European social networks Paris, but throughout Europe. Mean- the issue was being hotly debated at expressed profound pessimism on this while, in the United States, the major the end of 2014. It remains to be seen topic, which does not bode well for this concern for this year revolved around whether this will turn out to be the ac- new year. Albeit to a lesser extent than the advancement and consolidation of tual course of action. But, once again, social networks, even news sites con- IS (24.1%), although the same subject given the reaction of the European po- veyed a host of pessimistic predictions, was also extensively and intensively litical elite to the tragic events of Paris – both in Europe (74.7%) and in the discussed in Europe, both on social ranging from the proposal to tighten United States (72.5%). networks (24.3%) and on news web- controls and reduce immigration flows What are the reasons behind such sites (21%). to the idea of modifying the Schengen sweeping pessimism? Expectations for 2015 thus seem to Agreement – it appears that online de- A first answer to this question may reveal a deep distrust of the radical Is- bates have once again accurately fore- be gleaned from the comments posted lamic world. It is no coincidence, then, seen what will undoubtedly be one of online in Europe. Already at the end that the tightening of border controls the hottest topics on the political of 2014, 26.7% of online news and is another major expectation for 2015 agenda in the coming months. I 21.7% of social media posts predicted to emerge from the web. It is a burning new terrorist attacks. This fear was issue, and, as a matter of fact, the fore- Andrea Ceron is an assistant professor of unfortunately and tragically substan- casting of stricter immigration policies political science at the University of Milan. tiated at the beginning of 2015 with turns out to be the prevailing view luigi Curini is an assistant professor of po- the attack on the offices of Charlie when surveying online news, both in litical science at the University of Milan. Hebdo by Islamic terrorists who the United States (33.2%) and Europe stefano M. Iacus is an associate professor of spread death and fear not only in (29.4%), but even on social networks mathematical statistics at the University of Milan.

How will the crucial international policy issues How will the crucial international policy issues ev olve according to the asian social media? evolve according to the asian online news sites?

80 80

66.8 65.1 62.2 62.4 59.7 60 54.1 60 45.9 40.3 40 37.8 40 37.6 33.2 34.9

20 20

0 0 Democracy Corruption China Democracy Inequalities China

Pessimistic Optimistic Pessimistic Optimistic

Note: neutral comments are not included in the tally

Democracy: what will happen according Democracy: what will happen according to asian social media? to asian online news sites?

Pro-democracy revolts Pro-democracy revolts and protests 24.1 and protests 31

Democracy will be 19.9 Democracy will be exported 16.1 exported to new countries to new countries Protests and revolts against 5.8 New forms of direct 4.5 democratic regimes democracy will develop 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Note: the graphs report the two most predominant opinions and the one that is least discussed

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europe

Brussels notebook by Ann Cahill

I Perspective on Research With huge emphasis on research that produces jobs as quickly as possible, scientists warn that while this approach may take care of the present, it will be a failure over the longer term. The seed bed of true scientific innovation is DOMINIK ASBACH/LAIF/CONTRASTO blue-sky research, the kind that pushes out the frontiers of knowledge and frequently produces physics and forensics of neutron star explosions; the unexpected. superfluidity and ferromagnetism of unequal This kind of ground-breaking work is also the mass fermions with two - and three-body goal of many young scientists, and the European resonant interactions; and quantum photonic Research Council has just awarded close to half engineering. a billion euro to 328 first-class scientists to fulfil This is the first starting grant round under the their dreams. newest EU Horizon research funding Most are young (the average age is about 35), a programme, the single biggest such fund third are women, quite a few have returned globally. Another round will be awarded next from promising careers abroad to take year. advantage of the funding and some have even come to Europe especially to do the research. They are a select group with just 10% of I Credit cards regulation applicants successful. The funds – up to €2 The credit and debit card world is getting a million for up to five years – will allow them to shake up with the banks that process the cards build their own research teams, employing more being forced to reduce their charges by as much than 1,400 postdoctoral and PhD students and as 80%. creating a new generation of top researchers. After strong opposition from the banks and the . A biology lab in There is nothing pie-in-the-sky about the companies that provide the cards – mainly Holland. The European Research Council has projects. They range from trying to understand MasterCard and Visa – the European Parliament allocated almost half a what makes people learn to nanoparticles in and the member states finally reached billion euro to 328 ﬁrst-class scientists. asthma treatment; risky decisions in economic agreement on the new rules. behaviour; social media, political participation It should be good news for consumers and . A credit card ad. and accountability; and the roots of The new European businesses. According to the European directives require corruption – a behavioural ethics approach. Commission’s research, the payment market banks to reduce Some are less obvious – moonshine and string business is worth €130 billion a year, which is commissions by as much as 80%. theory; medicine, immortality and yoga; the equivalent to 1% of the EU’s GDP.

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BRUSSELS NOTEBOOK |

Almost every account holder in the Union has EU Hits and Myths by Pagellapolitica.it a debit card and 40% also have a credit card. The card providers and the banks have a Eurocrats produce absurd rules: this platitude is often heard virtual monopoly, charging different rates to in the EU and must have some basis in truth, if the ‘first different retailers in different countries. among equals’ Frans Timmermans has been appointed The system is complex with the bank of the commissioner for better regulation. But as all consumer charging the merchant’s bank what misconceptions of any note , it reaches levels beyond belief, they call an interchange fee. They can vary the which can verge on the mendacious. Here are a few things fee they charge on different cards and from the Eurocrats have not had their say on, despite what the time to time offer incentives to consumers to newspapers say. change or use different cards that, in effect, carry higher interchange fees – pushing up the It’s not true that cost to the retailer. Brussels intends to ban Consumer groups argued retailers recoup the double-slot toasters costs by increasing the price of products, and FALSE The alarm was raised this increase is paid by those paying with a card by Matteo Salvini in a post and those paying cash. that soon went viral on Facebook; The banks and payment service providers it claimed that “heating two argued that to provide adequate levels of slices of bread at the same time standardisation, interoperability and security, will no longer be possible”. In they must invest in infrastructure and actual fact the toasters – all 180 technological innovation. Such investment million of them in European results in the creation of new products that they REUTERS/CONTRASTO/ROBERT PRATTA households – have only been say benefit the consumer. For these reasons, the included, as other appliances, in a report prepared for the industry was against the proposed caps, arguing Commission by external consultants. The purpose of the study, that the fees were needed to support the part of the Ecodesign Directive, is to select domestic appliances investment in the infrastructure.  for which energy consumption levels can be reduced. The study does not threaten to halve the number of slots on toasters. The consultants have simply pointed out that toasters that enable just one slot to be on at a time mean you don’t have to heat both when you only want one slice of toast, thus reducing energy consumption. The study did not call for this measure to become compulsory (and in any case one would still be able to heat two slices at the same time), nor for the time being has the Commission introduced new rules on toasters. Toast lovers can breathe a sigh of relief.

It’s not true that the EU has imposed a “fuel diktat” on Channel ferries FALSE Another country, another round, or so they say, of Brussels’ meddling: according to the British Daily Mail REUTERS/CONTRASTO /DANIEL MUNOZ tabloid, the EU has imposed a directive on ferry fuel prices that would lead to a hike in the price of ferry trips to France. It is true 

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europe | BRUSSELS NOTEBOOK

that as of the first of January of this year, a Sulphur Emission Control Area has been instituted that includes the English Those who favoured a cap on the fees received a Channel and within which the sulphur content of fuels cannot significant boost when in September the European exceed 0.1%. Court of Justice ruled that they violated EU These rules, however, did not originate in Brussels: they were antitrust rules. negotiated within another institution, the International Maritime The new rules will see fees on debit cards limited Organisation (IMO), an United Nation's agency responsible for to 0.2% or 5 cents and on credit cards to 0.3%. Fees marine pollution prevention. And that’s not all: it was actually have been as high as 1.5%. Britain itself that wanted these rules to apply to the Channel, having verified that the previous rules were too lax. No ‘diktat’ therefore, just successful British diplomacy. I Beware of downloads Freemium products are increasingly providing an It’s not true that the UE has banned Bembel income for games, news and app developers who FALSO In Italy we worry about toasters; in Germany, display their wares on the Internet. according to the BILD tabloid, Brussels’ tentacular The system is simple. For these products, the directives are responsible for a ban on Bembel – a traditional initial download on a limited number of articles earthenware jug used to serve apple cider. Actually, this is a is free, but you will be asked, for instance, to pay rather inappropriate implementation on Germany’s behalf of a to access more stories or improve your status in non-compulsory regulation issued by the EU on transparent a game. containers used to serve beverages (to ensure the client Many of these are microtransactions worth just a receives the right amount). In implementing the rule, Germany few cents, and avid players of popular games, such has specified exceptions on frothy drinks (i.e., beer), forgetting as Angry Birds or Candy Crush Saga, as well as to include Bembel in the exemption. Following the many news junkies are happy to pay them. complaints from the states where the jug is traditionally used, A problem arises when children play so-called free the government has promised to protect this specific container. games that are linked to their parent’s credit card, The ‘guilty’ bureaucrats in this case are in Berlin, rather than in allowing them to unwittingly run up big bills. Brussels. EU national consumer protection authorities and the European Commission have reached an agreement with the main peddlers of these items, including Apple and Google, on the removal of the word ‘free’ from apps that have paid-for add-ons and the requirement that each payment is authorised with a password and some form of registration. Games designed for children must not request that children buy items or persuade an adult to do so for them. And these providers have finally also agreed to provide a contact address for queries or complaints.

Ann Cahill is Europe correspondent for the irish Examiner. Brussels-based, she has been following EU affairs closely for more than a decade. DOROTHEA SCHMID/LAIF/CONTRASTO 20 | EAsT Diebold mio 2_Layout 1 13/02/15 15:25 Pagina 1

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europe | EUROPEAN UNION

The real Donald Tusk A former Polish premier describes a former Polish premier. Democratic, liberal, fan

by Jan Krzysztof Bielecki

s the first summit of the European Coun- cil led by Donald Tusk came to a close in A Brussels on 19 December, some diplo- mats and journalists were struggling to find the words to describe the style of the new president of the council. Some said that the old school of Van Rompuy has been replaced by the business school style of the former Polish prime minister. But Tusk is more of a political bruiser than an economist. What is more, if you add strong values to that Many praised the efficient organisation of the talent, you get a really hefty political figure. Don- summit (including Angela Merkel, despite Tusk ald Tusk spent his formative years in Gdansk, a starting the summit without her as the leaders of place steeped in Hanseatic tradition, inclined to- Germany and France kept the other participants wards freedom and open to trade. He became waiting), although that was never considered to conscious of these values at the tender age of 13 be one of his strengths. They said that Van when mass demonstrations by shipyard workers Rompuy’s self-effacing style was gone. Why in his home city were brutally crushed by the should that be the case? communist government in December 1970. It was One reason is that despite Poland’s many suc- a deeply significant time in his life – as for many cesses – particularly under the government of other Poles – when the struggle between good Donald Tusk – Eastern Europe is still a mystery and bad, freedom and dictatorship became for much of the West. Many of my Western col- painfully clear. leagues still ask me, genuinely perplexed, about By the 1980s, Tusk was a mature and con- the roots of Poland’s success since the fall of com- scious activist. He co-founded Przegląd Polityczny munism. I am always surprised at their surprise. (Political Review), an illegal liberal periodical. He It is as if they supposed that the Iron Curtain pre- was an active supporter of the trade union Soli- vented talented people from developing and thriv- darity, bringing food and supplies to the striking ing in the region. But thrive they did, and Tusk is shipyard workers. He was jailed in 1984 for his a prime example of that. political activities. But he was lucky – General

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EUROPEAN UNION |

Later, as Poland’s prime minister, together with - Donald Tusk, other politicians, Tusk played in matches pre sident of the European Council, against journalists – this time in a proper sta- unanimously dium, Legia Warszawa’s Pepsi Arena. appointed by Brussels Tusk’s transition from opposition politician to to take over from the Belgian Herman Van premier minister was by no means a given. As Rompuy. should be the case in any democratic country, he won and lost elections in post-communist Poland. But by 2005, he was a presidential candidate. In 2007, as head of the centre-right party Civic Plat- form, he was elected prime minister. This is when Poles discovered that Tusk is more than just a free-marketeer. He is also a democrat, who has learned to listen to the voice of the people. In his first term, Donald Tusk steered Poland through the global economic crisis (during which it became known as the ‘green island’ of growth in recession-struck Europe). He made political history by being the first head of government to be re-elected for a second term in free Poland. This he cut short in September when he became

REUTERS/CONTRASTO/FRANCOIS LENOIR the first politician from Central Europe to be nom- inated for the post of EU council president. Jaruzelski, the then leader of communist Poland, Donald Tusk’s new role is important for announced an amnesty for political prisoners just Poland and good for Europe. The arrival in Brus- three days after Tusk’s arrest. sels of a leader whose appointment is based on All this required courage and an aptitude for his country’s success, on strong moral values and clandestine activities. If caught, Tusk and others a fierce commitment to Europe (his onetime po- like him faced many years in jail. Perhaps that litical slogan was “Neither left nor right, just is why he wrote under two pseudonyms – one straight to Europe”) and the transatlantic relation- of them the female name of Anna Barycz. In ship can only benefit the EU. Tusk developed fact, this led to some confusion when one day I those characteristics as a boy in the political hub made an appointment to meet the editor-in-chief that was Gdansk and harnessed them as a young of Przegląd Polityczny. I was surprised when man involved in dissident activities. He then ap- confronted by the boyish – and undeniably male plied them in free Poland. People ask what to ex- – face of Donald Tusk at the designated meeting pect from the new president of the council. As place. someone who knows him well, I can say with con- Donald Tusk also brought his skills to the fidence – more of the same. I football fields of Gdansk. The beautiful game held a special significance for all of us members Jan Krzysztof Bielecki is a former liberal Polish prime of the opposition. In the tense and dangerous minister and current CEO of Bank Polska Kasa Opieki S.A. political environment, it was a way to let off As a journalist he writes for The Wall Street Journal, Die steam, to feel free and forget about the world. Welt, Rzeczpospolita and Gazeta Wyborcza.

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europe | european union

The EU, a legal requirement The European legal integration process must take place right away or the EU risks being advantageous only for its elite

by Patrizia De Pasquale

he storm clouds gathered over the Euro- model and as a result EU law in a much more in- pean Union, still reeling from the cisive and specific way compared to other legal T tsunami that has rocked its economy systems. and public and private financial markets, are The long road towards integration has fol- showing no signs of dispersing. Many are calling lowed – and still follows – a non-linear path, for a return to the old-style ‘international com- marked by deadlocks, crises or sudden acceler- munity’ founded on national self-interests. The ations. Nonetheless, it always marches towards EU’s detractors want to slam the door in the consolidation. face of every innovative process, hurtling mem- Undeniably, the European system is becoming ber states towards dark and unknown future increasingly entrenched in historic reality, in scenarios. Fans of the old nationalism, who nos- legal-institutional mechanisms, in the economic talgically hark for a presumed, idyllic and unhis- and social fabric and, more generally, in the po- torical past, forget that while the EU may have litical culture of its member states. The reason disappointed at times, it has also achieved im- why the EU is considered a unicum compared to portant goals – first and foremost peace, that any other international organisation is precisely non-negotiable bond between European peoples. because of the impact EU law has had and con- The process of legal integration of the EU tinues to have on the lives of European citizens. member states is highly complex: unique in its The process of European legal integration is an substance and dynamics, it differs from all other unprecedented operation in the international international legal processes and systems. community’s history. It represents a new kind of This process is unique because the ‘quantita- partnership between states with a considerable tive’ developments in the creation of Europe – impact on their sovereignty. It is not merely a the addition of member states, the broadening of union of markets, a cliché invoked all too often by the European institutions’ scope and the creation Eurosceptics. Rather, the prevailing force behind of new agencies – have gone hand in hand with this integration process is the circulation of its insignificant ‘qualitative’ progress, driven by the dividual members, namely European citizens. on-going changes to the integration process, Erasmus students, unemployed people look- which have slowly came to define the European ing for work, retirees, tourists and medical pa-

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european union |

tients represent a side of Europe that is not only freedoms must take into account the need to de- about financial transactions, corporations and fend human life and dignity, supply citizens with banks but also people’s protection, rights and safe and high-quality medicines, guarantee free- freedoms and the principles contained in the dom of assembly and protect the psychological Universal Declaration of Human Rights. well-being of minors. The EU guarantees its citizens the right to Market logic, the implementation of social move and live freely in another member state. If rights and the protection of the environment are they are a resident of another member state, fully integrated and combined, no longer mutu- they have active and passive electoral rights in ally exclusive. local, regional and European elections in that This Europe is also capable of overcoming the country. They can petition the European Parlia- current dramatic crisis and gathering its forces ment, submit complaints to the European Om- to push the European agenda forward. This can budsman and address EU institutions, agencies happen if the EU is no longer singled out as the and bodies in any of the Union’s 24 official lan- root of all evil, if member states stop using it as a REUTERS/CONTRASTO/YVES HERMAN scapegoat for their own bad decisions and if its citizens -- especially the young -- stop regarding it as a foreign invader and start understanding the importance of active participation in mechanisms that regulate everyone’s daily life. Everyone should realise the EU is not a virtual reality: it is not merely the prerogative of a few, restricted circles of technocrats. The European Union is the sum of its 28 member states, all represented in that whole, just as their citizens are represented too. Within the European Council and the European Parliament, these representatives are called upon to make binding decisions for everyone. They must take on the responsibility of devising innovative so-

REUTERS/ CONTRASTO/PASCAL ROSSIGNOL lutions to help weather this stormy period and revive the integration process while safeguard-

0 a protest against guages with the right to receive a reply in that ing its values. austerity measures in same language. EU citizens can count on con- It is imperative to set aside national interests Brussels. sular and diplomatic protection by member and reinforce solidarity among member states. 0 Demonstrators in states that are not their own if they are in coun- Otherwise, the dream of integrating countries front of the Greek tries where their state has no diplomatic repre- that fought each other for a long time -- both Parliament with the european Union ﬂag. sentation. physically and economically -- could fail. And, The EU’s decisions in economic policy have thus, to quote Altiero Spinelli, the “greatest and taken on an increasingly social slant. The rela- most innovative creation undertaken in Europe tionships between social rights and the market, for centuries” could be destroyed. I between protecting the environment and the rules governing competition, are no longer seen Patrizia De Pasquale is a full professor in European as diametrically opposed. The Union’s economic Union law at LUM Jean Monnet University (Bari).

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point of view FRIENDS AND FOES

within the Shiite Muslim world. A world Iran, from rogue that the Caliph considers to be heretical and often attacks with even greater state to reliable ally? ferocity than its European and American My enemy's enemy is my friend. Satan is ready to bow targets. to military logic, but not the Saudis and Israelis In this ongoing struggle, it is also worthwhile noting that the resources by Romano Prodi and Giuseppe Cucchi both the West and Iran can deploy on the battlefield would seem to be perfectly complementary. The West has an s expected, the November 2014 rehabilitate the image of Europe and overabundance of fire power of all kinds talks between Iran and the world’s America in Iran where for the last quarter but is short on infantry, both in terms of AP5+1 powers – the United of a century they have been called “the numbers and adaptability to combat Kingdom, China, France, United States, Great Satan”. conditions, while Tehran is short of high- Russia and Germany – failed to bring This stall in negotiations, therefore, impact weaponry but could easily provide about a satisfactory conclusion to the stems from motives that are more all the required ground-based forces. ongoing negotiations over the fate of psychological and opinion-related than To some extent, it is already doing so. Tehran’s nuclear programme. All that was technical. In other periods, no short-term Revolutionary Guard units have already achieved was the extension of the solution to this kind of situation would been flanking the inefficient Iraqi forces, supposed final deadline by seven months have been forthcoming. Yet at this which without their help would have to 30 June, a move that provides a clear moment in time, changes seem to probably already lost Baghdad after they indication of how likely the parties believe develop much faster and we are forced to proved unable to maintain control of a prompt agreement to be. keep up with them if we mean to Mosul and Tikrit. The extensive The greatest obstacle that gets in the way contribute to the making of our history involvement of Tehran in Iraq is further of a satisfactory solution is probably no rather than simply take it on board. testified by various very indicative longer technical in nature, but political. We also have to bear in mind that in many elements such as the high number of The two issues over which the November parts of the world these rapid changes losses incurred and the deployment of talks ran aground – uranium enrichment generate extremely perilous and unstable numerous elite fighting units. and the subsequent easing of sanctions – situations that have to be addressed Meanwhile, on the Syrian front, Iran has are indeed complex but ways to get round immediately if we want to avoid them taken a back seat by promoting the them had already been identified some spilling beyond the initially affected area involvement of Hezbollah forces, the time ago. and spreading like wildfire. Lebanese Shiite militia that have always The conclusion of the more than decade- For those of us in the West, the greatest looked to Iran for guidance. In this battle long dispute would, however, certify Iran’s risk at present would seem to be the rapid against a common enemy, some form of acceptance within the community of growth of a highly dangerous form of cooperation has no doubt already been ‘civilised nations’ once and for all. A Islamic extremism of Sunni extraction that established between the Iranian troops change in status that would essentially has two main points of reference -- al- operating on the ground and the coalition confirm what has been true for some time Qaeda and the Caliphate which it wishes forces led by the United States, which now, however hard it is to swallow for to restore in Syria and Iraq. This state of have been bombing the Caliphate fighters. Western nations and in particular the play ends up putting the West very much Full interoperability, however, will only be United States. Conversely, it would on the same plane as Iran that has for achieved once the mutual apprehensions, simultaneously and symmetrically some time now taken on a leadership role misunderstandings and suspicions

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- Iranian President Rouhani surrounded by supporters at Tehran airport.

- Ir aqi President Fuad Masum with Iranian President Rouhani during a session of the United Nations Assembly. UPI/MARYAM RAHMANIAN / EYEVINE /CONTRASTO

Putting an end to the West’s nuclear dispute with Iran appears to be precisely such a problem, even if in this case a solution – regardless of its merits – will never sit well with Israel, which fears for

REUTERS/CONTRASTO /ADREES LATIF its very survival, nor Saudi Arabia, whose position as the world’s undisputed energy leader would be seriously undermined by a return to the market of Iranian oil. This is likely to spark a formidable political battle in the United States, fuelled externally by these two nations, which wield the greatest foreign influence over the United States Senate and Congress. In Europe, acceptance of such an agreement would be considerably easier, especially for countries such as Germany and Italy, which have enjoyed good political ties and strong economic relations with Iran and implemented the embargo against Iran more out of solidarity with their partners generated by the nuclear dispute are continuation of Iran’s nuclear programme than true conviction. I eliminated. could be submitted to a popular We can therefore hope that all the referendum. On the American front, Romano Prodi served two terms as interested parties have understood the hopes must be pinned on President Italian prime minister and was president of full extent of the imperatives created by Barack Obama's proven ability to make the European Commission for five years. He the new situation and there is some momentous decisions regarding serious is a member of East’s advisory board. evidence of progress in this regard. problems when the solution is ripe, yet it Giuseppe Cucchi served as Italy’s One example is a recent speech by is not being addressed either out of military representative to the European Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in political inertia or due to opposition by Union and was director of the Italian which he mentioned that the particularly powerful lobbies. Security Intelligence Department.

MARch ApRIl 2015 | 27 028-029_E_Ucraina Lendvai_Layout 1 14/02/15 06:28 Pagina 28

europe | Ukraine

Putin's successful strategy The Ukrainian crisis divides East and West and reawakens pan-Slavism. Putin is successfully courting all nationalist forces within Europe

by Paul Lendvai

edia attention has been concentrated video news agency Ruptly and the foreign during the past few months on the col- viewer Internet portal Sputnik alongside a M lapse of the Russian rouble. This has broadly based political campaign focusing on se- come as a result of the unprecedented plummet- lected key personalities has meant that the offi- ing of the price of oil (Russia‘s most important cial Russian view has triggered an unexpected export commodity) compounded by the eco- degree of sympathy abroad for the line taken by nomic sanctions imposed by the West on the Putin towards the entire Ukraine issue. Russian economy as a protest against the annex- One of the most intriguing developments has ation of Crimea and Russian conduct in Eastern been the emergence of sympathetic partners to- Ukraine. The prospect of a deep recession and wards Putin’s Ukrainian policies in countries its impact not only on Russia itself but also on that 25 years ago belonged to the Soviet Bloc the business interests of West European coun- and subsequently joined the EU and NATO. A tries has been a legitimate subject for specula- case in point is Viktor Orbán’s authoritarian gov- tion and comment. ernment in Hungary. The Hungarian prime min- Western observers and media , with a few ex- ister had earned his stripes shortly before the ceptions, have by and large failed to grasp the collapse of the Communist regime in Budapest significance of the political successes scored by with a fierce anti-Communist and, by implica- Russian President Vladimir Putin during the tion, anti-Soviet speech delivered at a large pub- same period. He has managed to undermine the lic meeting in Budapest. Today he calls Russia, fragile united front of the European Union coun- along with Turkey and China, a “star performer” tries and even more the transatlantic solidarity and praised the success of these “illiberal between Washington and Brussels. The combi- democracies”. Orbán called the EU sanctions nation of the on-going media offensive launched against Russia “a shot in the foot” and openly by the Russian state TV broadcaster RT, the criticised US foreign policy which could em-

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Ukraine |

broil Hungary in a “new This is certainly true for Serbia. The Russian Cold War”. Hungary is leader was recently received with great pomp not only dependent on and splendour in Belgrade at a ceremony com- Russian gas and crude oil memorating the Red Army's liberation of the but the country thanks to city during World War II. Meanwhile, the coun- Orbán has also con- try, currently in the midst of an economic crisis, cluded a mysterious €10 is keenly interested in joining the EU. billion credit deal revolv- Poland, on the other hand, is far from falling ing around the enlarge- in the trap of pan-Slavic emotions manipulated ment of the Russian-built for political purposes and has consequently nuclear power plant at been extremely critical of Russia's conduct in Paks on the Danube. Sim- Ukraine. Together with the three small Baltic ilarly, Slovak Prime Min- countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), it has ister Robert Fico is also all along been a staunch defender of Ukraine's very lukewarm in public prerogatives. statements about the EU As for the West European states, the Russian sanctions that endanger leadership seems to have managed to cause di- Slovak exports to Russia. visions in the seemingly united front in favour REUTERS/CONTRASTO/MARKO DJURICA Another political of economic and financial sanctions backed pri-

0 serbian President front has been opened by the Russian leader- marily by Germany, France and Italy. Plans for tomislav Nikolić helps ship concerning several far-right, nationalistic further sanctions, now in the pipeline, are un- President Vladimir Putin don his jacket and openly racist parties and movements in likely to be carried out in the near future. Top during a parade countries belonging to the European Union. Social Democratic politicians – from French celebrating the 70th This would seem to be a way of forging closer President François Hollande to the Austrian anniversary of the freeing of Belgrade ties with Marina Le Pen's Front National in Chancellor Werner Faymann and the German from Nazi occupation. France, which allegedly includes the opening of Vice Chancellor and party leader Sigmar the Russian president was welcomed like a a credit line worth €40 million with a Russian Gabriel – have publicly spoken out in favour of hero. bank in her favour, and both the right-wing loosening rather than tightening the sanctions Freedom Party in Austria and the fiercely na- on condition that Moscow not intensify Russian tionalistic Ataka Party in Bulgaria. involvement in Eastern Ukraine. The Russian leadership also has no qualms Thus, there exists a surprising degree of dif- tabling the old pan-Slavic card. Thus, it was no ference between the darkening economic accident that at Putin‘s annual large-scale press prospects facing the nation and the tactical ad- conference on 18 December he was asked vantages gained in the political arena by the whether he thought it possible that the “Slavic Russian leadership. Whether this discrepancy nations – Serbians, Poles, Czechs, Bulgarians, will influence the future of the sanctions im- Russians, etc. – could set up a friendly associa- posed on Russia, we shall find out in the coming tion”. Putin replied that smaller countries can months. I be subjected to pressures and their sovereignty is also in the balance. He was however aware that “deep down, there is an aspiration among Paul Lendvai is editor-in-chief of the international Slavic nations to preserve cultural and spiritual, quarterly europaeische rundschau and author of 16 if not political, unity”. books on Eastern Europe (see www.lendvai.at).

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The ultras’ role in the war Divided over football, united for freedom: in the stands of Ukraine's arenas, the fans chant the same song

by Anna Zafesova GAIL ORENSTEIN / EYEVINE /CONTRASTO

t was meant to be the largest stadium in ever Ukrainian Premier League (UPL) title, and Eastern Europe – the symbol of a young Sevastopol – have reluctantly withdrawn from I nation, both politically and in sports – the UPL to join the Russian football league. They and made waves when it was chosen to co-host too were annexed along with the peninsula. the UEFA Euro 2012 Championship. Today, the The team Arsenal Kyiv went bust over a year stands of the Donbass Arena are packed with ago and Ukraine’s economic situation leaves little sacks of flour and cases of tinned meat, and the hope of an imminent revival. Brazilian and Ar- VIP parking lot is teeming with volunteers. gentinian stars are fleeing, or at least trying to. There is a war in eastern Ukraine and the sta- The Brazilian midfielder for Metalist Kharkiv, dium owner, the Shakhtar Donetsk Football Club, Edmar Halowski de Lacerda, who switched na- has fled to play elsewhere, while the team’s pres- tionalities to play for the Ukrainian national team, ident and owner, oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, has was drafted into the army to fight the separatists turned the facility into a distribution centre for in the east. The UPL has been reduced to the 14 humanitarian aid. teams that have the logistic and financial means The four teams of the Donbass region – to compete in a championship that, similar to the Shakhtar, Metalurh and Olimpik from Donetsk country as a whole, is on the verge of bankruptcy. and Zorya from Luhansk, the two largest cities The changes in the national football league re- held by pro-Russian factions – will only play away flect the political earthquake that has shaken the games this season, far from the war. Two Crimean country in the last year. Shakhtar Donetsk, the teams – Tavriya Simferopol, winner of the first- team from the industrial pro-Russian east, nostal-

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Ukraine |

gic for the Soviet glory days, has moved to the along with the Lviv nationalists, while Metalist - Thou sands of Lviv Arena across the country. Its new base, Lviv, and Dnipro fans immediately sided with Ukraine Dinamo supporters crossing a bridge over is the capital of Ukrainian nationalism, where the in cities with pro-Russian majorities, such as the Dnipro in Kiev. Russians – who moved there in 1939 as a result Kharkiv. of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact – are viewed as This alliance has overcome linguistic, social colonisers. The move to Lviv is not merely one and cultural differences and has already piqued of convenience: Akhmetov can afford the sta- the interest of sociologists. Ukrainian fans – like dium rent, whereas the local team Karpaty can- those in many Eastern European countries and be- not. But the tycoon also wants to distance yond – are often racist (with the exception of Ar- himself from the Russians and show his support senal Kyiv). And football’s ruling body FIFA even for Ukrainian independence. And football is one feared racial attacks in the run up to Euro 2012. of the few spheres where a political maneuver Perhaps it is precisely the ultras’ tribalism that has of this kind is possible. led national and nationalistic sentiment to prevail Ukrainian football fans were one of the driv- in the war with Russia, even among fans of Russ- ing forces behind the country’s Maidan Revolu- ian origin, producing an unusual reversal of roles. tion and ultras (hardcore fans) have been key As the BBC noted in an investigation into figures in demonstrations elsewhere. The song Ukrainian hooligans, today the image of a foot- “Putin Khuilo!” (literally, “Putin’s a Dickhead!”), ball fan is “not a beer-bellied thug bent on de- coined by Metalist fans, has become an internet struction” but “a protector of rights and craze, a ring-tone and a protest anthem that has freedoms”. And Ukrainian ultras are starting to spilled from the stands to the streets. identify with this paradoxical image: anti-gay The toughest clashes in the standoff between graffiti on the riverbank in Kiev was covered up former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych by fans because homophobia is associated with and the demonstrators took place at the gates of Putin and thus politically incorrect in a Ukraine Dynamo Kyiv’s grounds. The Odessa tragedy of 2 that extols Europe. May 2014, which ended in a fire that claimed 48 This transformation could spread to other lives, began with clashes between pro-Russians countries. In October, dozens of Belarusian and and a pro-Ukrainian ultras march. Ukrainian ultras were arrested after chanting in Oddly enough, the rift in the country has not support of brotherhood between their countries been mirrored by football fans. Indeed, old rival- at a match between the two national teams, ries have been shelved to create surprising al- topped off by a chorus of “Putin Khuilo!” liances, such as the one between Metalist Kharkiv The Belarusians got away with mere fines, un- and Dnipro Dniepropetrovsk. usually lenient punishment under Alexander Arsenal Kyiv fans were the only self-declared Lukashenko’s regime. The Ukrainians, arrested “anti-fascists”, waging ideological and physical for being drunk and disorderly and their obscene battles against racist fans like the Dinamo Kyiv language, were freed thanks to direct intervention White Boys and especially the green-and-white by Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko. Karpaty ultras (whose highly colourful away In Ukraine, football has indeed become an af- match antics are inspired by national symbols of fair of state. I which they believe they are the true guardians, but have also featured swastikas). Anna Zafesova worked as a correspondent for La The anarchist militants and neo-socialist fans Stampa in Moscow and specialises in what was once called of Arsenal Kyiv were certainly in Maidan Square, Sovietology.

March apriL 2015 | 31 032-033_E_Estonia Gergolet_Layout 1 16/02/15 13:05 Pagina 32

europe | estonia

will remain the prerogatives of Estonian nation- als, who have been exercising both of these rights A small electronically since 2007. In recent years, Estonia has been generating increasing interest. In his 2015 predictions for The learned state Wall Street Journal, historian Niall Ferguson – bor- rowing his categories from Veronica Roth’s dystopian novel Divergent – called Estonia, along goes to vote with Singapore, “the Erudite little countries…that have the rare distinction of intelligent gover- The country that boasts state-of-the-art nance”. technology has to come to terms with its past Estonians will head for the polls on 1 March. Not only is confirmation of the government at by Mara Gergolet stake but also its approach to public administration and its ties with its cumbersome neighbour Russia. An upset looks unlikely. The country’s proportional representation system, with its 5% ould you like to become an e-resident of entry threshold, has cut out the extreme factions, Estonia? Be able to flank your regular leaving just four parties. W passport with an ID card issued by the Uniquely in Europe, the two main majority Estonian government bearing your personal and and opposition groups – respectively, the Reform biometric information? Gain a virtual identity – and Centre parties – both belong to the Alliance a bona fide (digital) double – that allows you to of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, though the move freely as citizen of the web? differences between them are not insignificant. To request your own, first-ever state-certified The pro-market Estonian Reform Party of 35- e-identity card, all you need to do is visit one of year-old Prime Minister Taavi Rõivas is similar to the country’s border guard offices and drop €50. Germany’s Liberals and has historically been the Estonia’s e-residency is just the latest project backbone of the national ruling class, while in this tiny country’s (population: 1.3 million) Tallinn Mayor Edgar Savisaar’s Centre Party is po- quest to lead the world in avant-garde high tech- sitioned further left. Dominated by its founder- nology. Estonia may be the size of an emirate but leader, the latter party has often been accused of it has the ambitions of a Baltic Singapore and a populism and, even more significantly, counts mission to be the model for a streamlined, e-gov- among its supporters 75% of the non-ethnic Esto- erned state. nians, most of whom are ethnic Russians. Estonian Embassies worldwide plan to start The Reform Party is ahead in the polls and will accepting e-residency applications this spring. likely be able to choose between continuing with These e-citizens will be able to communicate with the Social Democrats, with whom they have gov- EU institutions, start companies, and pay for bus erned since 2014, or returning to the old coalition, tickets, e-commerce and banking services. Sim- with the popular Pro Patria and Res Publica ply, conduct everyday business online as any Es- Union (IRL). The Reform Party leads the TNS tonian does today. Emor polls with 32% of the vote, followed by the E-residency will not give cardholders the right Centre Party (23%), the Social Democrats (19%) to vote or access social benefits in Estonia. These and the IRL (15%).

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estonia | REUTERS/ CONTRASTO/INTS KALNINS REUTERS/CONTRASTO/STEFANO RELLANDINI

However, in December a poll conducted by infrastructure, the railway takes you to Moscow 0 Eston ian Prime Turu-uuringute predicted that Savisaar’s Centrists or St. Petersburg and the EU’s Rail Baltica project Minister Taavi Rõivas ahead in the polls for would beat out the incumbents 27% to 26%. It’s is only in the nascent phase. The countries’ elec- the next national easy to imagine the impact the victory of a party trical grids are synchronized with Moscow’s, and elections. elected by ethnic Russians could have, within Eu- all natural gas comes from Russia. 0 An electoral poster rope as well. Ethnic tensions are latent and trans- Certainly, the sanctions and lower oil prices picturing Tallin Mayor versal in Estonia. In October, Finance Minister seem to have rendered economically unfeasible Edgar Savisaar. Juergen Ligi had to resign after insulting (via Face- any destabilisation operations by Russia, even book) the Russian-minority education minister, though they did seem possible just this autumn. calling him “an immigrant’s son” and “rootless”. Meanwhile, there have been notable economic Tensions with Moscow are high. Estonian developments in Estonia: it has the world’s sec- skies have been subject to numerous incursions ond-highest number of start-ups per capita; Skype by Russian jets, particularly in October when on software was developed there; and while more than one occasion Russian MiGs were es- teenagers in the 1990s dreamed of being corted from Estonian airspace by NATO fighter Leningrad Cowboys, today they aspire to become planes. That same month, in one of the most dis- high-tech entrepreneurs. Ninety-five percent of turbing incidents since the Cold War, Estonian Se- Estonians pay taxes online and the state sends out curity Service agent Eston Kohver was picked up tax rebates within 48 hours. by Russian agents near Pskov and accused of ille- However, this illuminated democracy on the gal border-crossing and spying. To the Estonians, Baltic risks being held back and forced to deal this was a clear case of abduction and is yet to be with a past which it had – only seemingly – left resolved. behind. I And there’s more. In spite of NATO protection, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Estonia Mara Gergolet is deputy chief editor of the foreign desk has been on the front line. Moscow still considers at Corriere della sera. She reports on Germany, Eastern Eu- the Baltic states ‘captive nations’. They have little rope and the Middle East.

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europe | TURKEY

The Sultan's rivals The high election threshold limits and pools Erdogan's rivals but the Kurds with their lay European approach are the ones that stand out most

by Marta Ottaviani

n June, Turkey will return to the polls for a general election, the first without Pres- I ident of the Republic Recep Tayyip Er- doğan leading the Justice and Development Party (AKP) that he helped found in 2001. When he was elected president last August, party leadership and the position of prime minister were passed on to Ahmet Davutoğlu, the then minister of foreign affairs and extremely loyal to Erdoğan. Just months before the elections, the Turkish opposition seems affected by the same paralysis that has plagued it since Erdoğan came to power. There are three parties opposing the AKP in parliament, although at least two of them have at times towed the government line in approving several laws. The limited number of parties is due to the election threshold, standing at 10% in Turkey, a cap often criticised by Brussels. The leading opposition force is the secular Re- publican People’s Party (CHP) founded by none other than Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the father of modern Turkey. It took 26% of the vote last time, but it is far from being considered a realistic alternative to the AKP. The change in party leadership from Deniz Baykal, thought to be the main cause of the electoral defeat, to Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has

only led to a few of the hoped for improvements. REUTERS/CONTRASTO/OSMAN ORSAL

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TURKEY |

Although “Turkey’s Gandhi”, as the local press resources and national media exposure between has taken to calling Kılıçdaroğlu, has done his the HDP candidate and former Prime Minister best to change his party’s image, today the CHP Erdoğan. is still viewed as tied to yesterday’s values: pro- In recent years, the HDP has primarily fo- European on paper but old-school Kemalist (or cused its strategies on two aspects with the first Ataturkist) when it comes to reforms and eco- being the establishment of a greater presence nomic policies, issues on which Erdoğan has al- throughout Turkey. This has meant putting its ways run strong election campaigns. candidates up for election outside the majority- The second opposition party is the conserva- Kurdish neighbourhoods in large cities and find- tive Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Devlet ing ways to attract voters in places that would Bahçeli, its leader since the 1990s, has been rela- have been unthinkable just a few years ago. The tively successful in cleaning up the MHP and second area the HDP has worked on is the con- eliminating the most overtly subversive elements tent of its political manifesto, inspired by the pro- that were a throwback to the 1970s. At the next grammes of progressive European parties. elections it will however have another card in It is no coincidence that since 2011, the HDP

REUTERS/ CONTRASTO/UMIT BEKTAS hand: the dramatic and dangerous situation in has concentrated its political agenda on human southeastern border provinces such as Hatay and rights. Clearly, the focus has first and foremost 0 Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Gaziantep where there is only a small Kurdish been on rights for the Kurdish minority, which the turkish leader of minority (which won’t vote for the ultranational- has been seeking constitutional recognition for the Republican People's Party (CHP). ist MHP). These areas have been dramatically af- its ethnic group and language for years. But now fected by the Syrian crisis and their economy has the HDP is including women’s and gay rights in - selahattin Demirtaş, suffered progressive impoverishment. Pandering its manifesto too. This is the agenda of a secular, the co-secretary of the pro-Kurdish party HDP to these populations may be a way of harvesting social-democratic party, everything the CHP and that in the last a few more votes, but no solution to the real prob- the Communist and Socialist parties should be elections came close to securing 10% of the lem which is the lack of a political agenda that ef- were it not for reasons that could be termed his- vote. fectively counters the AKP policies. What they’ve toric, which have relegated them beyond the come up with so far is no alternative to Erdogan, scope of the Turkish constitution. just criticism of his actions. At last year’s admin- Another factor in the elections is the disap- istrative and presidential elections, the republi- pointment over the slow progress of the peace cans and nationalists joined forces to nominate a talks between the Kurdistan Workers’ Party single candidate. While a step in the right direc- (PKK) and the AKP, an attempt to end the coun- tion as a way of updating its political message, it try’s armed conflict in exchange for recognition wasn’t nearly enough to stand as a viable political for the Kurdish minority. This could lead those rival to the AKP, especially when Erdoğan’s per- Kurds who placed their trust in Erdoğan at the sonal charisma is thrown into the mix. last general election to change their minds. So The third opposition faction comprises the AKP leader Davutoğlu might just have to strike a Kurds of the People’s Democratic Party (HDP) deal with the HDP if this coming June, as hap- who, in the right numbers, could pose a problem pened in 2011, his party does not obtain the kind for Davutoğlu and the moderate Islamists. At the of numbers it needs to pass constitutional re- 2014 presidential elections, Selahattin Demir- forms on its own. I taş, co-chair of the HDP, had just under 10% at the polls. This was remarkable, especially con- Marta Ottaviani is an expert on Turkey and Greece and sidering the vast disparity in terms of campaign writes for the dailies La Stampa and Avvenire.

MARch ApRiL 2015 | 35 036-037_E_Cipro Cadalanu_Layout 1 13/02/15 19:27 Pagina 36

europe | CYPRUS

Elections across the Wall Reuniﬁcation is unthinkable, a light federation might appease investors interested in the abundant oil ﬁelds of these quarrelsome Cypriots

by Giampaolo Cadalanu

he ‘Nicosia Wall’ (the demilitarised zone Cyprus had no choice but to defend its rights. known as the Green Line) will stand for Ankara retorted that the reserves belong to the T quite a while yet. For not even the most entire island and that their future must be dis- optimistic supporters of reunification have any cussed at the peace talks. Eide agreed, but when illusions about Greek and Turkish Cypriots em- the UN official pushed the concept, he only suc- bracing each other any time soon. ceeded in further angering the Greek Cypriots. In spite of efforts by Espen Barth Eide, the for- Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades mer Norwegian minister of foreign affairs and reiterated that “the natural wealth belongs to the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s special ad- state and the responsibility for managing it lies viser on Cyprus, international diplomacy is at an with the government of the time for the benefit impasse. Dreams of wealth derived from the nat- of all the legal residents of the country”. The use ural gas reserves discovered off the island’s of the qualifier “legal” has incensed Turkish southern shore a few years ago, rather than en- Cypriots because they see it as an invitation to couraging a solution that would finally establish join the Cypriot state and abandon the northern the legal status of the two communities and allow entity of the Turkish Republic of Northern them to start exploiting the gas, seem to have Cyprus, recognised only by Ankara. only aggravated mutual animosities. Disagreement is such that even potentially in- Last October, the Greek Cypriots suspended terested oil companies hesitate to enter the fray. peace talks after Ankara sent the Barbaros, a seis- Russia is the latest to make it emphatically clear mic research vessel, to survey in the exclusive that major investments are impossible in this cur- economic zone. Nicosia has already conceded rent climate. During Vladimir Putin’s visit to some exploration and production rights in this Ankara last December, Russian Foreign Minister area to the Italian-South Korean energy consor- Sergey Lavrov told the Turkish government that tium ENI-KOGAS. The French firm Total has also neither the Russian state nor the Energy Ministry been awarded permits to drill for gas. are interested in any natural gas projects in The Cyprus government called Turkey’s be- Cyprus at least while the situation remains so haviour “threatening and arrogant”, stating that complicated.

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CYPRUS |

the hugely popular former mayor of Nicosia, who is returning to politics after a 10-year absence, which he dedicated to spending time with his family. All presidential candidates seem to be dan- gling the dream of reunification before their electorate’s eyes, though none appear to be truly convinced. And troubled peace talks have left room for ideas that in the past would have been labelled as daydreaming, in particular that of a ‘light federation’. Analysts for the International Crisis Group, a conflict-prevention NGO, openly support this idea. It would involve recognition of the status quo, which has not changed in 40 years, and REUTERS/CONTRASTO/NEIL HALL/FILES allow North Cyprus to join the European Union

0 A stretch of the Wall In short, no peace deal is in sight at the mo- in the future as an independent state, free from that divides the south, ment. And it is hard to imagine that the upcoming both Nicosia and Ankara. Greek-Cypriot side of the island that presidential elections in Northern Cyprus, on 19 In exchange for a green light from Cyprus, includes Nicosia, from April, will help ease the situation, whatever the which as an EU member has the right to veto the the northern Turkish- result. accession of new countries, the Turkish Republic Cypriot side. The current president, the conservative of Northern Cyprus could offer some interesting Derviş Eroğlu, claims he can negotiate a better bargaining chips. For instance, the restitution of deal for Turkish Cypriots. The incumbent head contested lands, like the eerie, abandoned beach of state is seen as the favourite to win the elec- resort of Varosha, near Famagusta; the with- tion: an opinion poll in late 2014 had him at drawal of Turkish troops; compensation for nearly 27%. But even if his opponents cannot Greek-Cypriot properties; and perhaps even re- break 20%, it is too soon to consider the result in linquishing all claims to the gas reserves in the the bag. southern waters. The liberal Kudret Özersay, an academic and This kind of solution could yield positive re- the Turkish Cypriots’ official chief negotiator, is sults for everyone. It would grant the Turkish considered an outsider. But he has pinned his Cypriots their desired freedom and the chance to campaign on his negotiating experience in past finally end their international isolation and join peace talks to emphasize that he is the only can- the EU. For the Greek Cypriots, it would remove didate capable of reaching an agreement. the main obstacles preventing a full recovery of The speaker of the Parliament and first female the economy, which was brought to its knees by prime minister of Northern Cyprus, Sibel Siber, the financial crisis. could stand a good chance. She is supported by A deal like this could also be considered a step the Republican Turkish Party (CTP) and is stand- forward for Turkey in light of its possible future ing in the name of a federal Cyprus, thus target- entry into the European fold. I ing those still hoping for reunification. She appears to be Eroğlu’s most dangerous rival. But Giampaolo Cadalanu writes about foreign policy for the there is also the social democrat Mustafa Akinci, daily La Repubblica.

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europe | THE VATICAN

when the Argentine pope will attend the important World Meeting of Families in Philadelphia The Church during a visit to the United States and, in particular, with a second synod at the Vatican in October. splits over new At present, the issues are as unresolved as ever, and the Church stands torn and often at a loss when having to come to terms with the dra- marriages matic changes in relationships and emotional ties, the proliferation of extended families and The recent synod has broken the ice specifically ecclesiastical and pastoral matters. but the intricate theological problems One needs only read the final document detail- ing synod "Part One" to appreciate this. revolving around family issues The family shaped by the Gospel and the will have to wait till next October Church's moral teachings is akin to a ship at the mercy of the sea, called into question by the by Francesco Anfossi poverty that afflicts ever more households, marriages between people of different faiths, cohabitating couples, children born outside of ith his commitment to reform a “poor marriages, attacks on women’s dignity and all Church for the poor” (beginning with kinds of emotional fragility, especially the be- W the Vatican Curia and its finances) that trayals that lead to separation and divorce. must administer to the world’s geographical and It is common knowledge that the assembly of existential 'peripheries', the moral, theological synod “fathers” (bishops, cardinals, theologians and pastoral vision of the family is one of the and experts) was divided on many issues. The pivotal points of Pope Francis’ spiritual agenda. pope himself had encouraged the fathers to stop A difficult and complicated matter, it is perhaps procrastinating and to talk openly about marital the Catholic Church’s greatest challenge, as be- crises and specifically on how those involved in came obvious during last year’s extraordinary these crises could be bound to the Church. One synod on this very issue. of the topics high up on the agenda was en- The assembly was marked by much debate abling divorced Catholics who have remarried between divergent alliances of cardinals whom civilly to resume receiving communion. In addi- the pope has divided into “traditionalists” and tion to extended families, the topic of sexual “progressives”. Pope Francis invited bishops and morality was also addressed. cardinals to reflect upon the lacerations of an The Church's teachings still prohibit premar- institution – the family – that is ingrained in the ital sex and the use of contraception, yet even in Gospels but whose 'earthly' expression is in- surveys commissioned by bishops’ conferences creasingly fraught. A crisis that knows no bor- and Catholic universities, Catholics seem to take ders, spanning from Argentina's shanty towns little heed of its sexual instructions. A 2012 poll to the well-to-do neighbourhoods of the de- of American Catholics revealed that 82% were Christianised Old Continent. in favour of contraception, while in a related The family debate is still alive within the poll, 44.7% were against the morning-after pill Catholic Church and will continue in 2015 (though the vast majority were against abortion).

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The document drawn up by the synod is very cautious and does not reflect the heated debate on matters such as homosexuality, divorce and separation. With regards to homosexuality, while the document emphasises recognis- ing the dignity of ho- mosexuals, it is averse to indiscriminately adopting the word "marriage" for gay unions, and asks: “How can the Christian community give pastoral attention to families

with persons with ho- CAMERA PRESS/FABIO FRUSTACI/CONTRASTO mosexual tendencies?

While avoiding any unjust discrimination, how Son”, whose father reassured him: “You are al- 0 The Pope during an can such persons receive pastoral care in these ways with me, and everything I have is yours”. afternoon session of the synod on the situations in light of the Gospel? How can God's Families that stay together, explained the cardi- family. The moral, will be proposed to them in their situation?” nal, “bear witness to the fact that marriages can theological and The danger lies in creating a sense of confu- be successful” and “should rejoice and welcome pastoral vision of the family is one of the sion among those who identify as the “People home those who do not achieve this ideal”. As main tenets of Pope of God”. In turn, problems could arise that are for unwed couples who live together, many Francis' spiritual agenda. not in the least insignificant for the faithful. synod fathers have agreed that there are positive For instance, if non-traditional couples or elements to this, which does not mean that they extended families are recognized by the condone cohabitation as such. Catholic Church, how will traditional couples There is no turning back, however. After the feel whose relationships are founded upon second synod session in October, also to be held marriages that still hold firm? Should one in the New Synod Hall of the Vatican, the pope deplore patchwork families or recognise “those will decide what to do next. He’ll have the addi- elements of faith and generosity that charac- tional help of a historic questionnaire of 46 terize cohabitating couples”? questions that will be sent to dioceses all over The archbishop of Vienna and primate of the the world; the results will be gathered in a doc- Austrian Church, Cardinal Christoph Schoen- ument to be published this summer. In the end, born, whose parents are separated, replied that Pope Francis will draw his own conclusions. I “good Catholics” remind him of the good brother in the famous “Parable of the Prodigal Francesco Anfossi is editor-in-chief of Famiglia Cristiana.

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european conscience SPACE odySSEy

- The ESA control centre Success in Darmstadt (Germany) during the approach of the Rosetta space probe in space towards the comet 67P/Churyumov- Gerasimenko, after a 10 Samantha, Rosetta and year journey.

the other conquests of the / Sa mantha Cristoforetti, European space program the ﬁrst Italian woman to enter space, is a member by Emanuele Colombo of the European Space Agency crew. TIM WEGNER/LAIF/CONTRASTO

ne we saw standing radiantly on the launch pad beside the rocket Othat was about to lift her up to the International Space Station (ISS); the other we have hardly noticed as it careened along its crazy and lonesome ten-year flight path through the cosmos. Who or what are we talking about? The first is Samantha Cristoforetti: “A European of Italian nationality. Domiciled in space”, as she writes on her Twitter profile. On 23 November, she became the first Italian woman to go into space and the first to become a member of a European Space Agency (ESA) crew. Her Twitter username (@AstroSamantha)

already has some 240,000 followers. ESA / EYEVINE/CONTRASTO That’s more than the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, who has 69,000 resoundingly successful in its half-century Agency has designed and tested and is and not far short of Bob Sinclair, one of existence since its inception in 1964. This still running in space include Meteosat, the most renowned DJs in the world, level of success helped the European ERS 1 and 2, Envisat and the three MetOp whose followers total 370,000. Council convince its 20 member states satellites. By analysing the earth’s The second is Rosetta: the space probe during a 2 December meeting to invest an surface, atmosphere, oceans and ice that in November of 2014 reached the additional €6 billion in its new ventures. packs, these satellites have been 67/P Churyumov-Gerasimenko comet after “In Europe we’ve decided on a policy that providing increasingly accurate a 10-year journey and landed the robot favours services of use to our citizens, observations of weather patterns and probe Philae on its surface. An extremely thus most of our resources go into earth climate change since 1977. complex, high precision operation. But observation, weather, scientific, As for transportation, in 2010 the these are just the most recent telecommunications and navigation European EGNOS system improved the achievements of ESA, which currently satellites”, says ESA spokesperson Franco accuracy of its GPS navigation systems, employs 35,000 people and has been Bonacina. The 70 satellites that the which have spawned applications

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SPACE odySSEy |

essential for flight safety. Soon the new spaceship designed for extended travel in The new space race Galileo system will be providing a major space, a first step towards an equivalent contribution to the improvement of road, of Star Trek’s Starship Enterprise. “Nine he new Ariane 6 is Europe's rail, air and sea transportation. It will also percent of our annual budget is spent on “Tresponse to competition from assist in the management of human space travel”, says Bonacina. low-cost launchers. The idea is to infrastructural and public works, crop and But that's not all. Another important lower the cost of each launch to between €70 and 90 million", says livestock farming, and even in bank project has been set up to try and solve Franco Bonacina of ESA. In recent transactions and on-line trade, besides its the space waste issue. One of the side years a new space race has got fundamental role played in rescue effects of space operations is that the underway, essentially a price war operations in crisis conditions. earth’s orbit is filling with floating debris. over the €4.4 billion business of Another of ESA's primary concerns relates “There are around 750,000 man-made putting satellites into orbit. to fundamental issues for mankind, such objects currently in orbit”, Dr. Holger Krag, India, China and Japan are all working as the origin of life and whether we are head of ESA’s Space Debris Office, told on their space programmes, but the alone in the cosmos. The Planck space East, “and even the smaller objects, real challenge comes from the telescope, first sent into orbit in 2009, is travelling at 11 km/s, can destroy what we American SpaceX company which now relaying essential data required to send into space, producing a plethora of charges €40 million a launch, a improve our understanding of the origin fragments that can put certain areas of pittance compared to the €175 million required for the current of the universe. In 2005, with its Huygens space out of bounds”. That’s why the Ariane 5 launcher (which, it has to be probe, ESA masterminded the furthest- Agency is investing in a waste collection said, can carry twice the payload). ever landing from Earth on Titan, the program for which it is designing its own, Low cost and low quality? We'll find largest of Saturn’s moons located state-of-the-art technology out in September. SpaceX has been approximately 1.5 billion km from the sun. (www.esa.int/cleanspace). awarded a €2 billion contract with So what's next? The ministerial meeting As ESA’s Dordain points out, “The NASA to produce the replacement gave the green light to the production of collaborations between public and private for the Space Shuttle, while the the Ariane 6 booster rocket (see box). institutions have been instrumental to the Boeing colossus will be receiving Funding has also been found to keep the success of ESA”, which at present can rely €3.3 billion for the same project. International Space Station up and on €15 billion of orders by such major Whether David manages to running at least until 2020 and for the companies as Eutelsat and Airbus Services overwhelm Goliath with 40% less budget has yet to be seen, but the ExoMars project, a Mars exploration and to help telecommunications move into risk of being ousted from the market landing program scheduled for 2018. another gear. But what good is all this to has revived the entire aerospace “Italy and the United Kingdom are the the man in the street? Plenty, if, as ESA industry and triggered a new chapter main partners of ExoMars, but there’s also claims, each euro invested in space in space exploration. considerable support from France and applications provides an economic return Germany”, says Jean-Jacques Dordain, the of more than €20 and the aerospace Agency’s managing director. sector as a whole is currently propping up Today the European launch services are our economy and could help us dig the most reliable in the world and it’s no ourselves out of our current and long- surprise that ESA has now been called on standing crisis. I by NASA to develop the multipurpose Orion vehicle: supposedly not just the heir Emanuele Colombo writes about

to the Space Shuttle, shunted into technology and society for Italian and REUTERS/CONTRASTO/MAXIM SHIPENKOV/POOL retirement just a few years ago, but a true American publications. 042-45_E_Storie–new_Layout 1 14/02/15 06:35 Pagina 42

chronicles

How start-ups start Five students in a studio apartment with no air conditioning invent Enplug, a top ﬁve start-up in 2013 by Nanxi Liu

efore we had Enplug offices player, making millions before he compatible values. We didn’t care on five continents, Enplug was 18 years old. I thought he was a about living comfortably. Our life Bworked out of a one-bedroom pretty cool guy. goal was building game-changing apartment shared by the five On his flight back, David struck up a technology. cofounders. Readers may know conversation with his seatmate. Mornings at the Enplug apartment Enplug as the popular software used Zach Spitulski, who had just involved battling for the shower to manage and distribute content on finished his junior year in college, because the hot water only lasted 10 digital displays in banks, shopping had impressively built and designed minutes. Everyone cooked their malls, hotels and restaurants. A two of the top 10 most downloaded own meals but would buy groceries project born in a tiny apartment in education apps. Enplug had its third to share. Los Angeles. cofounder. We had different skill sets. Zach did After setting up a biotech company Zach shared his plane experience all the design work. Alex coded. in college, I was searching for my with his roommate, Alex Ross, who Navdeep worked on hardware. next adventure. An internship was bewildered by his friend’s David talked to customers and I colleague at Goldman Sachs decision to drop out of college for a sought investors. This efficiency in introduced me to David stranger. Alex had built a Wall Street job division allowed us to progress Zhu via email. A week commodities trading platform as a quickly. After our first three months, later, David flew from college student and was graduating we had a prototype, paying LA to meet me at the that month. After hearing Zach’s customers and top investors. University of story, he wanted to join too. We recruited two new teammates California-Berkeley David called his old high school but the apartment was getting where I was attending classmate, Navdeep Reddy, a tech cramped. It was time to move. school. guru, and we had our fifth We found a house in the posh Our conversation cofounder. neighbourhood of Bel Air, and for lasted 45 minutes. The five of us met for the first time the next 12 months, we lived and I learned that at Zach and Alex’s apartment. Just worked in the Enplug house. At one David turned like a shotgun Las Vegas wedding, point, we had 20 teammates at down studying we exchanged a few words, took a Enplug and 14 of them lived in the computer photo and prepared to live together. house. Our living room was lined science at We looked for an office and I with desks and the garage was the MIT to proposed sharing an apartment to design studio. My bedroom doubled become a save costs. Everyone agreed. Our as a room for conference calls. professional willingness to easily give up our It was a true sharing economy: online poker lifestyles was indicative of our bedrooms, food and chores. 042-45_E_Storie–new_Layout 1 14/02/15 06:35 Pagina 43

START-UPS AND R&D |

A few months ago, our team went to the local Dave & Buster’s, a chain restaurant and video arcade. In the restaurant’s dining areas, there are multiple, wall-sized displays. We plugged a mini device that has Enplug software into the HDMI (high-definition multimedia interface, Ed.) of the largest display. The display instantly started showing D&B’s live social media feed and our software automatically filtered out any negative content. Dozens of customers started posting onto the display by mentioning “#Dave&Busters” in their tweets. When the manager saw that Riding the digital Enplug’s software helped D&B go viral, he signed on as a customer. economy By our second year of operation, our team had grown significantly. The answer to the crisis is Cubeyou. An all-Italian company We found a large office, which we by Federico Treu named Enplug HQ, about 15 minutes from the Enplug house. Today, 35 teammates work out of n June 2009, my brother was so we founded Cubeyou! Enplug HQ. Ten of us still live working for Cisco Systems in We moved to Milan and set up shop. together in the house. Ithe UK, and I was picking up We weren’t sure what we were Our success has been catalysed by the pieces of my Bulgarian real doing, but we made the right Enplug’s culture of extraordinary estate adventure, brought to its moves. We created a PowerPoint dedication, initially established by knees by the 2008 financial crisis. video to sell the service to local the founders and then articulated by We met in Paris and started talking businesses. At first we got tossed each teammate that joined. Our about Google’s new StreetView out. But after refining our pitch, company’s history has taught us to technology. It was an amazing we quickly were able to close a deal be open to all opportunities in life, innovation. But we felt the most worth €199 for a virtual tour plus a no matter how unconventional they interesting part was missing – an yearly subscription set to begin on may be. I indoor view of the thousands of 10 October 2010, Cubeyou’s restaurants, bars, shops and expected public launch date. commercial activities which make a In the 10 months leading up to the Nanxi Liu, the founder of Nanoly city magic and alive. Why not offer launch, we signed up over 2500 Bioscience and Enplug Inc., has been people a virtual tour of a club paying businesses, hired 52 full- named to Inc.'s “5 Women-led Start-ups to before they decide where to spend time employees and even secured Watch” and Entrepreneur Magazine's “Top the evening? Google could keep the our first investor, which enabled us 30 Start-ups to Watch in 2013”. streets, we’d manage the interiors, to kick off our service in style. 

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chronicles | START-UPS AND R&D

On our D-day, there was a press the use of social data to a conference at Milan's city hall and a completely new level Aladin, flash mob in Piazza Duomo with (www.youarewhatyoulike.com) and 500 people. Some 20 newspapers we brought in artificial intelligence and magazines covered our launch technology in order to transform from Sana'a and we had reached out to over social online interactions into 10,000 shops in the city. The future predictors of purchasing behaviour. to Rome looked bright. But that’s when it all We opened an office in Silicon Fleeing from Yemen, went wrong. Valley, with its own sales force, Our technology was not up to while research and development to Rome. Now his art is scratch and all the hype backfired remained in Europe. This allowed all over Italian cities on us. Our contract sales slumped us to leverage the best of both by Giovanni Piazzese 50% and we started posting losses. worlds - a large and early adopter While trying to solve our technical market and highly skilled and issues, we kept adding new reliable researchers and coders. At hen the Yemeni artist features. We’d lost sight of our first we sold our technology as a Aladin Hussein Al- ultimate goal and were no longer managed service to large WBaraduni arrived in Italy at providing our customers with what corporations, such as Sony, Christmas time in 2004, the Arab they wanted. American Insurance and Pepsi, but revolts were still a long way off and It was back to the drawing board, we soon realized that to scale up we Middle Eastern dictatorships were and after two years of product needed to transition to a software- still firmly in power. Al-Baraduni had development, we came up with two as-a-service (SaaS) platform. We are just turned 27 and was starting to solid products: a social media now about to release our brand new make a name for himself as one of the management tool and a profiling profiling and media planning foremost up-and-coming painters in platform designed to gather platform called Cubeyou XY. Our Yemen. information on customers directly aim is to shake up the market His works depicted thorny subjects, from social media. research industry and its antiquated including street cleaners, religious At this point my brother and I survey methods by implementing and ethnic minorities, and dark- decided to part ways. I took over the new research technology based on skinned men and women, all kept at profiling platform project under the artificial intelligence and big data arms' length by the country’s elite and Cubeyou brand, while Gian founded from social media. The initial relegated to the margins of Yemeni Social Bullguard (SBG) selling his results look promising and several society. His sensitivity towards the social customer service product. large publishers and agencies have marginalised helped establish him as After plenty of tweaking, SBG has already signed up and started to a respected artist in a socio-economic taken off and is now one of the best preview the platform. context marked by lack of freedom, social customer service platforms in Only time will tell if it works. We're inequality and rampant societal Europe with deals with customers betting the rollercoaster won’t stop militarization. such as BMW, Poste Italiane and this time round, and if it does, it From the very beginning, Al-Baraduni Vodafone. means the learning curve has came into conflict with the At Cubeyou, we initially focused on flattened and it’s time to move on. I authoritarian regime of then research and development. We set President-dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh, up a partnership with the Federico Treu is CEO and founder of ousted in February of 2012. Any University of Cambridge, raising Cubeyou. attempts at opposition were repressed

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START-UPS AND R&D | AL-BARADUNI AL-BARADUNI

through preventive detentions, longer the city that Fellini depicted, the canvases he painted in Yemen, disappearances and killings. All forms and the places I fell in love with, like centre on social conflict, such as the of art, from painting to poetry, were Trastevere, aren’t what they used to right to work and to a home, or the tightly controlled and their messages be. Money has transformed these environment, for which he has fought conservatively censored by Saleh’s places, but Rome is still one of the since arriving in the Italian capital. need to promote a positive image of most beautiful cities in the world”. One of the recurrent themes in his the country. His first days in Italy where not easy. work is a gas mask, worn by both men Al-Baraduni was watched by the He didn’t speak Italian, he didn’t and animals. “The mask is not only a police. He'd taken part in know anybody and he lived as an symbol of social conflict, it also demonstrations and been jailed. Yet illegal alien for almost five years reminds us how humans are he continued to paint the ‘outcasts’ to before he could legalise his status. destroying the planet and the nature the government's embarrassment “For a while, the Italian authorities around us”, he explains. until, he says, “the situation had wouldn't grant me political asylum According to Al-Baraduni, art should become unbearable and I realised that because I didn’t meet requirements. be closer to the people, represent I’d have to move out because dying But I had no other option than to stay everyday life and its struggles and amid the total indifference of in Italy illegally”. renounce the exclusivity of galleries: governments and peoples leads In 2010, however, a Yemenite religious “Art for art’s sake, money and nowhere”. leader sentenced Al-Baraduni to death celebrity don’t interest me. I need In late 2004, the government banned for having claiming he was atheist. money too, like everyone, and I sell his art, preventing him from This, combined with the request for some of my paintings, but my greatest continuing his work as an artist. With the return of a cash prize the artist satisfaction is when I paint something the help of an Italian embassy official had been granted by the Yemenite that anyone can discuss and in Sana’a, Aladin acquired a visa for government in 2004, persuaded the appreciate without having to buy a Italy and moved to Rome, a city that Italian authorities to grant political ticket”. I he had read and seen plenty about. asylum. “I learned about Rome and Italy by In Italy, Aladin has carved a niche for Giovanni Piazzese is a freelance journalist reading Moravia and Pasolini and by himself on the walls of Rome, Turin, living in Cairo since 2011. He contributes to watching Fellini films”, says the young Bologna, Naples and many other limes, la Repubblica, Nigrizia, Middle East Yemeni artist. “Today, Rome is no cities. The subjects of his murals, like Eye, Azione and Rai News24.

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interview

economic agents, we must be cautious and not create false expectations. We’ve always said that Interview the benefits would be appreciable in the long term. As you yourself said, Abenomics is a package of measures and not a single magic bullet. It with Haruhiko will take time. What do you think of the eurozone’s management of the crisis from 2009 to today? Kuroda, Bank of The eurozone has dealt with some things well and others less so. The latter, in particular, includes how slow it was to understand that the cri- Japan governor sis in Greece could be resolved differently and that deflation could be a very tangible problem “Learning from one's mistakes”, for heavily indebted economies. Now that Mario Draghi has begun his €1.1 trillion quantitative eas- this is what Kuroda suggests in order ing (QE) programme, I think the eurozone could to avoid another collapse bounce back. But Draghi is wise to remind everyone that without governmental backing, the ECB by Fabrizio Goria can do little. The eurozone must undergo reforms and overcome its current divisions: only by so doing can its monetary policy be effective and ‘no-limits’ monetary policy is not exactly allow the euro economies to grow once more. the prevailing strategy among the wor- We often hear about the risk of ‘Japan Syn- A ld's central banks, especially in the eu- drome’ for the eurozone. Is there a chance of this rozone where the European Central Bank (ECB) happening? has one primary objective – to keep inflation at It’s always interesting when the world’s central around 2%. Yet such a strategy is not wrong: ECB bankers, analysts and economists look at Japan- President Mario Draghi demonstrated as much ese deflation. In my opinion, a comparison with when he fired his ‘bazooka’ in late January. the eurozone today makes no sense. There are too We discussed the role of monetary policy and many differences, such as the openness of the much more with Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of two economies and their historical contexts. the Bank of Japan. Today we are experiencing unprecedented levels of liquidity on the financial markets, yet investors Let’s start with a difficult question. Does ‘Abe- still snub the eurozone. The question to ask is nomics’, the incentive package adopted in Japan why? to kick-start the economy, work or not? OK, why? The Japanese economy has gone through a pe- Well, while it’s true that there is significant liq- riod of negative growth in recent decades, but uidity, it’s also true that there are numerous we’re certain that we will experience significant asymmetries. The US experienced the worst fi- recovery in the long term thanks to Abenomics. nancial crisis since 1929, so they paused, cleaned Many want positive results immediately. They up their banks’ balance sheets completely and . Haruhiko Kuroda, want our economy to start growing again just like started again. Japan was severely affected by the during a press conference in Tokyo. that, but whenever we talk about the mentality of US crisis, then launched its own qualitative and

46 | EAST 046-047_E_Intervista 58_Layout114/02/1506:39Pagina47 much part of human nature. very are booms and Crises mistakes. tant is the ability to learn from our own impor-Equally area. single a to crisis develop the isolating of to capable mechanisms And where. but velop de- will crisis new a whether stand under- to important not It’s crises. website, and atesconditions fordifferent ofkinds and intellectual evolution always cre- be points of contact but technological next.differentTherecanis the from bubble,asymmetry priceeveryevery Brothers situation. Because every crisis, we’llthinkpre-Lehmanaever to return the collapse of Lehman Brothers? levelsseenriskpriortotheof everreturnto sion. Always. achievea great deal. can The key is future long-term vi- the build to will the and ments responsibilitybank,the along govern-with of central the of credibility The reform. through achieved be only can future better a that alise re- governments EU whether on depends much some scenario will probably be averted. But fear-it this economy, very then the revive successfully can ECB the programme.If centlyQElaunched long-lastingstagnation. Muchdepends re- onthe saying for some time? forlastgenerations, JosephbeenhasasStiglitz it has been for the US and could be for Japan. fundamentalfor the recovery of the eurozone, as long-termvisionrequired.are Innovation becan lagging behind. Greater competitiveness and more term will have a positive impact. The eurozone is quantitative easing programme, which in the long Fabrizio Goria That’s a tough one to answer. No, I don’t Lastly, the million-dollar question: will we such risks eurozone the that believe don’t I Does the eurozone risk stagnation that might Panorama Eastonline.eu . He's also the editor of the writes for . Corriere della Sera I East HaruHiko kuroda kuroda HaruHiko

REUTERS/CONTRASTO/YUYA SHINO |

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d o s s i e r REUTERS/CONTRASTO/STRINGER

TTIP:tobeornottobe

I The World Trade Organisation has 160 member countries. Since 2003 the emerging countries have often represented legitimate minority interests but by doing so have stalled decisions on international exchanges. The stalemate faced by this world giant has led to the proliferation of regional, bilateral and local agreements. One of the main ones is the Transatlantic Partnership, between the EU and the US. If it goes ahead, it will regulate approximately half of the world's GDP

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dossier TTIP: TO BE OR NOT TO BE

Trade globetrotters If the soul of globalisation is digital, the body is the giant containers, the "metal boxes" invented in the Thirties and introduced in the Fifties on the huge and eﬃcient container ships that have turned international trade on its head by accelerating the industrialisation process in economies that were once marginal, such as the Chinese… Swedish research estimates that the use of the container has meant a 320% increase in trade deals between countries over the course of ﬁve years and 790% over 20 years

. The Hamburg Port on the River Elbe is the main German port and the third in Europe after Rotterdam and Antwerp. Thanks to its strategic position every year thousands of ships load and unload goods here from all over the world. The port is one of the main employers in Hamburg, providing jobs for the 100,000 people who live oﬀ sea trading.

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PORTFOLIO  MICHAEL LANGE/LAIF/CONTRASTO 049-055_E_Portfolio 58_Layout 1 16/02/15 13:09 Pagina 52

dossier TTIP: TO BE OR NOT TO BE

I Cont ainers were invented by an American shipping magnate, Malcolm McLean. The ﬁrst cargo ship loaded with 58 containers set sail on 26 April 1956 from the Port of Newark. since then containers have conquered the world: from 1966 to 1983 the percentage of countries that use them has climbed from 1% to 90%.

The United states and China vie for the highest number of ports handling major container traﬃc in the world: China has 16, the Us 15. The ﬁrst ten ports in the world, (excluding Dubai) are all in the East and almost all Chinese (7 out of 10). shanghai

JÖRG MODROW/LAIF/CONTRASTO leads the pack while the ﬁrst European port in the rankings is Rotterdam in 11th place. Hamburg is 15th. CHRISTIAN O. BRUCH/LAIF/CONTRASTO

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PORTFOLIO 

I One of the largest ships in the world, the CsCL Globe, moored in port. The Chinese owned ship left shanghai on its maiden voyage on 8 December. The container ship built in south Korea by Hyundai Heavy Industries measures 400 metres in length and can carry up to 19.000 containers. 056-057_E_WTO Calenda_Layout 1 14/02/15 06:21 Pagina 56

dossier TTIP: To be or noT To be

Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Europe and Canada; TTIP - How the EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement; the Trans-Pacific Partnership; and finally the EU-US Transatlantic Trade international trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The latter, in particular, will integrate in a single marketplace half of the will change world’s GDP (along with one-third of all trade flows) and will play a key role The TTIP agreement with the US is a great in setting regulatory standards. All opportunity for the EU to manage globalisation. these negotiations, and especially the one for the TTIP, were fundamental The sooner a deal is struck the better for the approval of the Bali Package by Carlo Calenda and for TFA technical completion in late November 2014. The TTIP negotiation has prompted China, in particular, to collaborate in ince World War II, and regional agreements worldwide, finding a way to complete the Doha international trade has the so-called spaghetti bowl. This round. The agreement between the EU S expanded and prosperity has proliferation was seen, in Europe in and the US will therefore ensure that spread thanks to the GATT particular, as a tendency of the the gradual opening of trade exchanges Agreement of 1947 and the World strongest trade players to set up their moves forward, particularly among Trade Organisation (WTO), which own alliances, in opposition to the BRICS countries, whose markets are established the current trade WTO system. still highly protected. The TTIP is a regulations in 1995 at the time of its Indeed, these agreements can help milestone along the path towards a creation. These negotiations have trade liberalisation, forcing excluded new system of international relations. become more and more complex, in nations to consider adopting a more Soon, a new form of global part because the number of WTO open stance within the WTO. The governance, operating on three levels, member nations has grown to 160. progress achieved in Bali in 2013 at will come into being. Major deals – While GATT negotiations were the Tenth Ministerial Conference – such as the TTIP – will set up new concluded in a few months, it took namely, the approval of the Trade advanced rules, providing guidance in seven long years to set up the WTO. Facilitation Agreement (TFA), a terms of tariff and non-tariff trade Following the Fifth WTO Ministerial chapter of the DDA simplifying barriers removal, which will stand as Conference in Cancun in 2003, customs procedures – is for the most the first level of governance, while emerging countries have been raising part due to the finalized bilateral plurilateral sector agreements – such the issue of what their exact role in agreements and regional negotiations as those for services (TISA), the decision-making process might be, still ongoing among G7 countries. environmental goods (green goods) thus stalling the negotiations for the In recent years, industrial nations and information technology (ITA) – Doha Development Agenda (DDA). As have launched several trade talks will deliver a second level of a consequence, the decade-long with the aim of concluding very liberalisation. Finally, the Doha round, stalemate of the Doha round has ambitious and advanced bilateral once completed, will provide trade resulted in a proliferation of bilateral agreements: the Comprehensive advantages to a lesser extent to all

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- Canadian Prime Minister stephen Harper signs the Comprehensive economic and trade agreement (Ceta)

REUTERS/CONTRASTO/EDGAR SU between Canada and the eU ﬂanked by H. Van Rompuy and J.M. Barroso.

- the closing ceremony of the IX WtO Ministerial Conference in Bali. XINHUA/DAVID KAWAI / EYEVINE/CONTRASTO

WTO nations, including those that clearly be desirable to take advantage approached, leaving the issue aside are not yet ready to accept a deeper of the window of opportunity that for the time being while proceeding liberalisation, as required by the other could close with the 2016 US with the negotiation. The ISDS agreements. Progress in the bilateral presidential elections. Ideally, an mechanism was the subject of a and multilateral talks will accelerate agreement should be reached before recent online public consultation that the adoption of the DDA. the finalisation of the Trans-Pacific clearly showed there is huge Thus, the TTIP provides Western Partnership (TPP), which the scepticism among European public countries with the opportunity of Americans would like to close as early opinion towards this instrument. The steering the second phase of as March. EU must now assess its position very globalisation. This phase will see the The next round of the TTIP carefully to try and come up with the transition of emerging countries from negotiations in Brussels (during the best possible version of such a production-based economies to first week of February) will determine mechanism to be included in the consumer societies and could bring if, after all, there is a real chance of a TTIP deal. great benefits with it, provided we quick conclusion. The parties will On the US side, Congress will have to can finally establish a level playing need to exchange the sets of proposals renew the Trade Promotion Authority field. Stipulating an agreement with for improving market access for (which President Barack Obama the US will set the stage for such an goods, services, investments and requested on 20 January), the fast- opportunity, which is the premise for public procurement. It would be a track tool that gives the executive future European and world growth. major step forward and would pave office the power to negotiate During the six months of the Italian the way for an agreement, with all the international agreements without presidency of the Council of the EU, technical details being ironed out at a congressional amendments or Italy played a key role in seizing this later stage. In the coming months filibusters. The Obama administration historic opportunity. Heeding public many important political steps need will have to overcome resistance – opinion, it has promoted an initiative to be taken, however, by both the US even from among House Democrats - to increase transparency in the TTIP and Europe. but I trust the question will be negotiations, and (despite the First and foremost, in the EU, there resolved this spring. I dithering of France and Germany) led has to be an open and frank the European Council to make clear discussion within the Council and Carlo Calenda is deputy minister of the to the US that a tangible political Parliament on the investor-to-state Italian Ministry for Economic Development in result should be achieved in 2015. dispute settlement (ISDS) clause to charge of foreign trade and attracting From Italy's point of view, it would establish how it should be foreign direct invesments.

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From the onset, this powerful symbolism has made it difficult to EU and US - focus on the true objectives of the discussions and establishing their scope. together for growth The relatively secretive attitude initially adopted by the European The TTIP promises more uniform Commission was certainly not regulations and positives for the economy, helpful. It was only in October 2014 that the Commission agreed to make but the negotiations are not risk-free the negotiating mandate containing by Alessia Mosca the directives for the talks available to the public while committing to a new transparency initiative stipulated by the European he Transatlantic Trade and involving other countries. And civil Parliament. Investment Partnership society must play its part in This was an important step in a still T (TTIP) currently being influencing the path of these ongoing process – sustained by the negotiated between the United States negotiations. European Parliament's repeated and the European Union has been Talk of deregulation tends to be appeals for transparency – that gaining prominence in the European misleading since the issue at stake reassured and will continue to debate in recent months. This is good here is actually more thorough reassure citizens on several points. news since the discussion is not just regulation. The considerable weight For example, the mandate does not limited to economics. Quite the of regulations that the EU brings to include audiovisual and cultural contrary, it very much involves the the table is what has enabled Europe, production of goods and services, values and standards that should in broad terms, to provide its citizens which will thus be exempted from apply to social, environmental, with the highest level and widest the negotiations, and the EU consumer protection and security scope of protection. This regulatory demands a clear public commitment issues. These standards are being identity is at the heart of these to safeguarding the existing rules severely tested and strained in our negotiations. And what has been with regard to the provision of basic ever-changing world where decisions criticized in the past as Europe’s public services. are now so interrelated that they can't ‘hyper-regulation’ can now be So far, all the documents made help affecting the lives of citizens regarded as the benchmark to which available to the public have been everywhere. all others must aspire. published on the EU’s dedicated site It is for this very reason that TTIP The treaty has enormous (http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/pres provides a great opportunity to implications, even in symbolic terms. s/index.cfm?id=1230). As is often the reinforce the European social model The mere presence of the US as case, only by relinquishing and values as they have been shaping Europe's counterpart stirs up deep- ideological positions and examining up within the EU. rooted feelings linked with the each negotiable issue at face value This agreement can be instrumental rejection of American cultural can one form a realistic assessment in establishing common transatlantic imperialism and a view of the US of the scope of this agreement and its regulations and might encourage a that encompasses many negative more or less desirable consequences. virtuous cycle that could end up values and regulatory shortcomings. Since we are approaching a new,

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- Ignacio Garcia Be rcero (EU) and Dan Mullaney (US), the two chief negotiators for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). REUTERS/CONTRASTO/FRANCOIS LENOIR

decisive phase of the negotiations, one's own standpoint might be an labour and environmental protection where positions have been exacting task, but the stakes are too standards so far achieved in Europe established but not yet clearly high to indulge in an attitude any less remain unaltered – it will not ratify defined and disagreements on pragmatic than this. In a time like the the agreement. several questions still remain, it present, with the European Union An ever wider and more informed appears fitting that for the time being still cringing from the blows of an debate would of course be desirable the EU Parliament, which functions economic crisis that has brought it to but is often hard to promote. The as co-legislator in matters of its knees, one of the few hopes of European Commission's publication commercial policy, adopt a pragmatic economic growth and recovery lie in of the results of an online public approach. Europe's trade relations with third consultation on the controversial Each negotiation cycle must be countries. That is to say in exports investor-to-state dispute settlement properly completed before making a towards emerging nations that have (ISDS) clause, one of the most final evaluation, which needs to be recently made the transition out of sensitive points of the negotiations, is formulated based on the final content poverty and represent unexplored a good example of this difficulty. Out of the agreement once the process markets that hanker after European of a total of 150,000 responses, has reached its natural conclusion. In goods and lifestyles. approximately 52,000 comments this sense, the new Commission's The European Parliament has high came from Great Britain, nearly open and collaborative attitude ambitions for the TTIP and is not 34,000 from Austria and 32,500 from greatly facilitates matters. The new willing to sign a blank check. The Germany. Only 222 replies came European commissioner for trade, institution will have to use all its from Italy. Cecilia Malmström, has shown a high powers to influence the negotiations There is still a long way to go before regard for the role of the European and thereby fulfil the role of we develop a real awareness of the Parliament in this as well as in other representing citizens' interests and kind of decisions being reached. I trade agreements currently under concerns. If some of the conditions negotiation. that are of crucial importance to the Alessia Mosca is a member of the Examining the stances adopted by European Parliament are not satisfied European Parliament's Committee on each party, case by case, and finding – for example, ensuring that the International Trade.

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Multinationals’ double standards The Investor-state dispute settlement could jeopardize the EU-US negotiations

by Francesco Guarascio

omething changed in EU-US discriminatory treatment involving development body UNCTAD, transatlantic trade and foreign investors. German multinationals are among S investment negotiations In this particular case, Vattenfall those who invoke the ISDS clause the when German Chancellor Angela believes it is the victim of an arbitrary most against countries where they Merkel received a request for €4.7 expropriation, even though the have invested. One of the recent, billion in compensation from decision to close the nuclear plants more conspicuous cases was the Swedish energy giant Vattenfall after was made by a legitimately elected Deutsche Telekom lawsuit filed she ordered the gradual shut down of government to address environmental against India in 2013 after New Delhi all nuclear power plants in Germany issues of great concern to Germany cancelled a contract to develop in the wake of the Fukushima public opinion. broadband by satellite, deemed too disaster. The Swedes are complaining After this blow, Germany has become expensive for India’s public purse. about the loss of capital invested in the fiercest opponent of the inclusion What’s more, Germany was the first two German facilities and have of the ISDS clause in a possible free country in the world to introduce the invoked a clause in an energy trade and investment agreement – the ISDS clause in an international agreement ratified by Berlin which Transatlantic Trade and Investment agreement in its 1959 bilateral protects private investments in Partnership (TTIP) – between the US investment pact with Pakistan. And it another state. and the EU. “We’re not interested in has been one of the main promoters The provision -- known as the improving the clause. We want it of the mechanism and has included it Investor-State Dispute Settlement, or removed from the agreement”, said in dozens of treaties. ISDS -- is included in more than 3,000 German MEP Bernd Lange, chairman Clearly, Berlin fears American international agreements. It allows of the powerful European Parliament multinationals might use the same for the resolution of disputes between Committee on International Trade. prerogatives in Germany that investors and states through His view echoes German public Germany’s own industry giants use international arbitration tribunals opinion. elsewhere. However, Germany’s rather than the competent national And yet this position smacks more of obstinacy over this issue risks courts, which are not considered opportunism than a call for becoming the main logjam in the impartial when having to rule on consistency. Indeed, according to negotiations over the EU-US expropriation or damaging figures from the UN trade and transatlantic trade deal. For the

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- An anti-tabacco extraction of shale gas through de monstration in fracking in its territory. Montevideo. The Uruguayan state is Not all ISDS cases are so being sued by Philip controversial. Small-scale Italian Morris for having introduced legislation investors holding “tango bonds” (as that discourages the Italian press had taken to calling cigarette smoking and Argentina’s government bonds) therefore indirectly damages the group's believe justice was done when an interests. international arbitrator decided they had a case against Argentina – filed thanks to an ISDS clause – for having restructured its public debt following its 2001 financial crash, turning

REUTERS/CONTRASTO/PABLO LA ROSA Italian investments into junk. And environmental groups are not Americans, protecting investors than five cases a year in the 1990s to always up in arms when recourse is through international arbitration is a an annual tally of more than 50 today. made to the ISDS mechanism. The non-negotiable condition of the TTIP. Lawyers who work for multinationals recent decision of the Italian “The ISDS clause must be part of the are increasingly aware of the powers authorities to retroactively cut agreement. It is a crucial guarantee the clause grants them. In 2013, investments in solar power could be mechanism for investors who would roughly 90% of judgements handed challenged by foreign investors otherwise not invest in a foreign down by arbitration tribunals ruled in through international tribunals with country”, explains the US favour of claims filed by investors. the support of pro-renewables green ambassador to the EU, Anthony The amount of compensation is also groups. Gardner, one of the key players in the rising. In 2012, Ecuador was Case histories show that while this current negotiations. sentenced to pay record damages of clause has been abused of late, it does The US position is quite $1.7 billion (€1.46bn) to the American serve a purpose. Nonetheless, there is straightforward. While the Germans Occidental Petroleum Corp. for an apparent need for reform which originally pioneered the ISDS, the having terminated an oil exploration could entail restricting its sphere of Americans have made the most of it. contract. application and allowing appeals Roughly a quarter of all worldwide Some recent suits have caused an against private arbitrators’ decisions, disputes invoking the ISDS have outcry because of their controversial ideally in a tribunal that only handles come from North American nature. Uruguay and Australia have these specific issues. multinationals, with 85% of cases been sued by the tobacco giant Philip The reform agenda is where brought against developing countries. Morris for introducing laws to deter European and American interests Someone should perhaps start people from smoking cigarettes, thus could come together, thus ensuring kicking up a fuss, but certainly not in indirectly damaging the that the transatlantic trade deal does Europe. In 2013, the clause was most multinational’s investments. Canada not get bogged down. As long as the used by investors from the is fighting a multi-million-dollar suit issue is not exploited by those who Netherlands, Luxembourg, the US brought by the US-incorporated oil oppose the TTIP on principle. I and Germany. And recourse to this company Lone Pine Resources mechanism has increased tenfold of following the Quebec government’s Francesco Guarascio works for Thomson late, going from an average of fewer introduction of a moratorium on the reuters in Brussels.

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the strategic value of an agreement in rather broad terms. They see it as a How strategic way of shaping globalization by setting reference standards for the world and reinforcing transatlantic is the Pact? relations in light of the resurgence of the geopolitical challenges posed by The European Union is having to negotiate a free Russia’s annexation of Crimea and trade agreement with a partner whose economic Sevastopol. Both aspects have drawbacks. Any impact on standards clout and development status matches its own and rules can only be achieved by Josef Janning through far-reaching harmonization or a comprehensive mutual recognition of an integrated transatlantic market, which seems ever in its history has the EU to the US for European companies, rather unlikely given the reservations negotiated a free trade especially a large number of small- and the range of issues excluded N agreement, which explains and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), from the treaty by both sides. Also, it the level of attention and controversy thereby enhancing the is not easy to see how emerging the negotiations for the proposed competitiveness of European powers are expected to impose their Transatlantic Trade and Investment businesses on a global scale. Seen in norms and standards on the West Partnership (TTIP) have aroused this light, TTIP would seem to favour even without the TTIP agreement, among Europeans. This seems mainly industrial policies that promote given their dependence on access to to do with having the United States SMEs. Its critics, however, claim the European and North American as the negotiating partner. No agreement is likely to be tilted markets. previous agreement has been towards big business. NGOs, trade What’s more, the hope of concluded with a partner of equal unions and a number of political consolidating Western interests market size, none has come even parties view TTIP as threatening through TTIP in order to strengthen close to matching the sheer breadth European standards, job security and defences against power politics may of mutual trade and investments, and workplace conditions, and data be forlorn. It would require an no negotiating partner has ever protection. They are also adamant exceptionally high level of consensus involved a country with greater that the envisioned investor for it to carry any weight. political clout. Europeans are used to protection clauses could end up Conversely, the risk of failing to reach seeing their EU representatives scuttling democratic governance. an agreement, bandied about by splitting hairs over the extent to Since the economic gains from TTIP those opposing the strategy, seems a which their preferences, norms, will be more limited than initially point worth taking. Any failure in standards and procedures are to be believed, geopolitics seem to be the developing universal standards could accommodated. TTIP is unique on all core argument in favour of an support the perception of a declining counts and so are these negotiations agreement. Western influence over global norms in the eyes of Europeans, both among A lack of clarity exists on what the and rules and end up harming the supporters and critics. strategic dimension of TTIP is transatlantic relations. Many in the EU actors put high expectations on actually supposed to be. Many world would consider a breakdown TTIP as a means of improving access political leaders have only considered in transatlantic partnership

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- the top managers of th e main German car manufacturing ﬁrms promoting the transatlantic trade and Investment Partnership. the lettering reads "Yes to ttIP". REUTERS/CONTRASTO/FABRIZIO BENSCH

negotiations as an invitation to test its negotiations for which are at a much as a self-assertion of Europe. For centrifugal potential further. more advanced stage than the TTIP Europeans, a compelling case has to A more serious strategic case for TTIP process and are being strongly backed be made for both aspects if support appears if one focuses on the EU by the US. From an EU perspective, for TTIP is to be secured, but right alone. In recent years, the EU has mega-regional agreements such as now the political climate in Europe is pursued a fairly active international TPP aim to strengthen global supply unlikely to be very responsive. trade policy to consolidate its market chains and, if they are viewed as a The year 2015 is widely seen as a position and preferences at a time blueprint for an APEC (Asia-Pacific decisive period for the negotiations when the multilateral trade regime Economic Cooperation) free trade with US presidential elections has been stagnant. For Europeans, the agreement, could seriously endanger looming on the horizon in 2016. To challenge is not to be left out in the the competitive position of the EU protect its strategic interests, EU cold as larger regional trade blocks along with its rules and regulations. negotiators should aim to reach a thrive or sidelined by other global In this sense, TTIP would be the EU’s limited agreement soon rather than economic actors. With this scenario foot in the door, both reinforcing the engage in lengthy discussions about a in mind, the EU has launched a series significance of the European market more comprehensive partnership. of negotiations involving a new for the US economy and binding the The highly controversial investment generation of free trade agreements US to norms and standards negotiated protection clauses should be left out. under its 2006 Global Europe strategy. with the EU, thus balancing out the Additional resources to the EU’s This strategy targets markets with strategic scope of Washington’s swing structural funds should be considered serious potential and responsiveness eastwards. to balance the asymmetrical gains to EU exports in which the EU’s If this is the core of Europe’s strategic resulting from a transatlantic competitors, notably the US, Japan approach to TTIP, the case would agreement and to support member and China, have already concluded or have to be made strongly in public, states in overcoming any structural are busy negotiating agreements. even though it might weaken the EU’s weaknesses in their export sectors. I Likewise, the EU wants to have its say bargaining position at the negotiating in the development of mega-regional table. After all, the single-market Josef Janning is senior policy fellow in agreements, in particular the Trans- project won the day because of the Berlin at the European Council on Foreign Pacific Partnership (TPP), the economic benefits it would bring and Relations.

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hile Europe is still trying to get its bearings, looking to a W the United States, an almost The Eurasian forgotten chimera beckons: the idea of an economic union between the EU and Asia. It’s time for Brussels to economic union acknowledge the opportunities available beyond Moscow, and it is equally important for it to appreciate The eurozone creates tax-free zones that Asian investors will only return to attract Asian capital when the EU's credibility, seriously by Michael Gross imperilled between 2009 and today, has been restored. In a growing world that owes much of this growth to the Asian economies, the euro area risks being left out in the cold. The eurozone isn’t growing, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is working overtime to revitalize the euro area's ailing economy. International investors have realised what's going on and abandoned the euro area some time ago. As the ratings agency Fitch reported in their latest bulletin on the money market fund (MMF), one of the fundamental providers of liquidity for the

financial markets, the level of foreign XINHUA NEWS AGENCY / EYEVINE/CONTRASTO MMF investment in the eurozone in December 2014 was twice as low as “They are sceptical about the future justifiable in diplomatic terms, have it was in 2009. And yet a rebound of of the eurozone, but above all, they had and are still having significant some sort has already been achieved see no significant opportunities, even repercussions on the commercial compared to December 2011 when taking into account the economic relations between the two areas. the eurozone crisis seemed to have agreements that, after a period of Germany, one of Russia’s main reached a point of no return. In positive negotiations, now seem to trading partners, is bearing the brunt particular, according to Fitch, it's the have run aground”. This is how the of those sanctions along with France. Asian investors that have pulled out Goldman Sachs analysts have But the grounds for a Euro-Asian of the EU in numbers. A Goldman explained this unconsummated union should not be based Sachs poll of global investors showed marriage between East and West. exclusively on relations between that only 5% of investors based in With regard to relations with Asia, Moscow and Brussels. “The Asian Asia said that they would increase the euro area is not immune to financial capitals are more or less their interests in the euro area in criticism. The sanctions against ignored by the European policy 2015. This is not enough. Russia particularly, though makers. That's the unfortunate but

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ugly truth of the matter: commercial - Russian President diplomacy in Europe is not carried Vl adimir Putin during the ASEM summit, the out by the state but by businesses”, meeting between explains a high-level European heads of state and government from Commission official. In practice, Asian and European there’s no problem for the companies countries held in Milan that have the expertise, funds and on 16 and 17 October

REUTERS/ CONTRASTO/ ALESSANDRO GAROFALO 2014. the wherewithal to go to Asia. As far as the rest are concerned, Brussels - President of the Eu ropean Central Bank certainly doesn't lend a hand. Mario Draghi during a And then there is the problem of the press conference in flow of foreign capital in the other Frankfurt. direction: to the euro area. In the darkest hours of the eurozone crisis, among the first to reduce their financial investments were the Asian funds. “In their eyes a situation as chance to try to reactivate the credit opportunity that should not be disastrous as that seen in Europe channels across the whole euro area underestimated, one that may not three years ago when it looked like or, at least, where the transmission come again. After decades of Greece would leave the euro was mechanism for monetary policy has announcements and broken unimaginable,” wrote Stephen King, deteriorated the most, such as in the promises, the European Commission, chief economist of HSBC, in March outlying areas of the European led by Jean-Claude Juncker, could last year. Union. If Mario Draghi’s bazooka now develop relations between In fact, in light of what happened in manages to liberate the banks’ Brussels and the Asian economic- Japan at the end of 2014 when, for balances of the burden of state financial centres. How? By reasons connected to the economic bonds, the real economy would subsidising the free trade of goods, crisis, the government was dissolved benefit with a revival of lending for activating preferential channels of and the Japanese headed to the polls economic activities. The less the liquidity for Asian economic actors without undue concern, it is fair to eurozone's credit institutes are interested in investing in the euro ask questions about the European bloated by government bonds, the area; creating ad hoc tax- free zones predicament. The hardest question to more easily they will be able to for Asian investors; and, above all, answer, however, remains the same: provide financing. Within the by demonstrating that the eurozone how is it possible to believe in an current framework various is not only a place in which divisions economic area that includes 19 mechanisms for the prevention and reign supreme. In other words, by member states, with 19 different sets management of crises have been showing the whole world, Asia of public policies and 19 different created, from the European Stability included, that the euro area has national interests that hasn’t Mechanism (ESM) to the Single learnt from the mistakes of its youth nurtured the least credibility towards Resolution Mechanism (SRM), not to and that the worst crisis in its history the outside world? A question that, mention the Single Supervisory is now in the past. I for now, must go unanswered. Mechanism (SSM), three Today, the eurozone has a two-fold fundamental pillars that did not exist Michael Gross is a financial journalist and opportunity. On one hand, through prior to 2012. a writer, producer and host of radio quantitative easing (QE), it has the On the other hand, there is another programmes.

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agreement was signed and it has served Turkey well. Yet with the The Turkish proliferation of the free trade agreements signed by the EU with third parties some of Turkey’s point of view advantages have been eroded. The new free trade agreements Turkey wants to play a part in the pact between the Union and third parties but has a few issues to sort out were not automatically extended to Turkey. Ankara had to negotiate its by Soli Özel own trade agreements with such countries. At present, countries competing directly with Turkey over he two trade partnerships between the two economic giants, the EU trade, such as Mexico, South that the Obama US and the EU, will have strategic Africa, Algeria and most importantly T administration is political overtones as well. In fact South Korea -- all of which have free simultaneously pursuing, the Trans- some commentators have referred to trade agreements with the EU, have Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the TTIP as an “economic NATO”. This not signed agreements with Turkey. Transatlantic Trade and Investment description is not far off seeing as The World Bank’s report Partnership (TTIP), are both TTIP could become a major pillar of recommended that the customs union economic and strategic projects. From the Atlantic community. be extended to services and include an American perspective, the purpose The Turkish government views TTIP special provisions for agriculture. of these partnerships is to try to offset along these same lines. The kind of Turkey expected to be granted the China’s rise as the main Asian and terminology used would seem to right to join TTIP, arguing that it was global power of the 21st century. indicate that Turkey’s elites consider entitled to do so as a result of the Thus the TTIP agreement is seen as a being included in the TTIP customs union. Then, when this way to consolidate the Western agreement a way of strengthening route looked unlikely, it also tried to alliance and create an economic Turkey and its partners’ reciprocal engineer a free trade agreement with counterweight in the West to the commitment within the Atlantic the United States. At this point, the rising Asian economy. This is a very community. It has been estimated EU and the US have not yet agreed on critical aspect of TTIP, especially if that Turkey’s long-term revenue whether TTIP will be open to the viewed from a Turkish perspective. would drop by .27% if the agreement accession of third countries. Ankara is also interested in the only involves a removal of tariffs. If Reaching a free trade agreement positive effects the agreement might non-tariff barriers are also removed, with the United States did not prove have, based on the nature of the the drop would be closer to 2.5%. any simpler. The economic positives treaty and what it might encompass. Yet the more pertinent issue is Turkey’s and negatives of the potential In other words, Turkey would place in the Atlantic community agreement were outweighed by certainly not wish to be left out of The TTIP negotiations started at a political obstacles that thwarted its such a gigantic economic project that time when Turkey, as substantiated by chances. The current climate in the involves its Atlantic allies. a recent World Bank report, was US Congress makes it very unlikely TTIP is more than just an economic seeing diminishing returns from its that the US administration would project. If TTIP negotiations are customs union agreement with the support or approve a free trade rounded off successfully, the entente EU. It has been 20 years since the agreement with Turkey.

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- President of the shortcomings. Once Turkey returns european Commission to the virtuous path of building a Jean-Claude Juncker with turkish Prime liberal political order, its concerns Minster ahmet would -- or at least should -- get a Davutoğlu. more sympathetic welcome in / turkish President Brussels and Washington. Recep tayyip erdoğan In the meantime, there are a number during a press conference. the tense of things that Turkey must do before relations between TTIP is finalized. As Sinan Ülgen, ankara and Brussels chairman of the Istanbul-based make the inclusion of turkey in the ttIP Center for Economics and Foreign

REUTERS/CONTRASTO/FRANCOIS LENOIR negotiations unlikely. Policy Studies, suggested in a meticulously argued paper, those Presently the inauspicious political countries that have close economic climate rules out any moves towards ties with either the US or the EU Turkey’s inclusion in the TTIP must focus on making TTIP an negotiations or the chance of coming agreement that will not harm their up with a formula that would grant interests. For countries such as Turkey a place in the final agreement. REUTERS/CONTRASTO/FRANCOIS LENOIR Turkey, Norway, Mexico and Canada, All the more so since the existing, Ülgen offers these suggestions: help negatively charged political design an accession process that can atmosphere between Ankara and resist politicization; promote the Brussels inhibits a reasonable and principle of mutual equivalence to solution-oriented dialogue between eliminate non-tariff barriers; the partners. encourage the design of a flexible This is unfortunate on several levels. dispute settlement mechanism; and Turkey’s geopolitical importance for form a TTIP caucus or a joint the Atlantic alliance is not going to conditionally, this may help kick start platform to directly interact with diminish considerably any time soon. the reform process. A revitalized Washington and Brussels. Its prospective membership in the reform process would then put the Turkey should be included in TTIP European Union was also Turkish business community and civil both for its economic prospects and to instrumental in shifting Turkey society back in play, just as they were consolidate its place once and for all towards becoming a bona fide at the peak of Turkey’s passions for in the Atlantic community. In light of member of the Atlantic community EU membership. In turn, this would the economic and political and a stakeholder in its economic lead to a new wave of reforms. developments that have taken place system and its values. These reforms would not be limited over the course of the last few years, The gradual eclipse of the EU project to the economic realm. Currently achieving this goal ought to be a due to deteriorating relations between much of the ill-feeling nurtured priority not just for Ankara but for the ruling AKP in Turkey and major towards Turkey in some European or Brussels and Washington as well. I powers within the Union stalled American circles or the excuse that’s Turkey’s reform process. If Turkey often quoted for not fully engaging Soli Özel is a professor of international could be a party to TTIP or its with Ankara is a result of the relations and political science at Istanbul’s inclusion could be secured even country’s considerable democratic Bilgi University.

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dossier TTIP: To be or noT To be

edical prostheses made in India and sold in Kenya, fruit South-south M and vegetables grown on vast African plantations and served to wealthy Arabs in the Emirates. The trade denting type of trade called “south-south”, namely emerging markets trading with each other, is now one of the northern markets global economy’s most dynamic sectors. These emerging nations are cutting themselves With the continuing deadlock in the a bigger slice of the pie World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Doha round (the latest phase in the by Stefania Pensabene 14-year-long international trade talks)

. A delegate awaits the start of the WTO session in Doha. According to the WTO, between 1999 and 2010 the free-trade agreements have increased from 70 to 300 with a majority of them being signed between countries in the Southern Hemisphere.

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and advanced economies weakened In fact, free trade agreements have countries, which now account for by the financial crisis, the part of the always represented an influential 45% of the global total. If we narrow globe that is moving onward and tool, not only to boost economies but down the field to examine trade upwards – the current and erstwhile also to create bonds between nations. between those countries alone, it developing countries – has got its act Often these commercial ties are so reached a value of $4.7 trillion together. This has led to a burgeoning strong that they result in the partners (€4.1tn), more than a quarter of all of bilateral and regional free trade becoming politically interdependent. trade. agreements, and in the case of What’s more, this practice frequently It comes as no surprise that Asian agriculture, the application of private leads to separate standards being countries top the charts for this industry standards is becoming developed for trading blocs between exponential growth with South increasingly common. However, different countries or geographic American nations hot on their heels. there are numerous concerns about areas. In Asia, regional or bilateral free trade this trade trend’s potential effects on This goes counter to the WTO’s agreements have climbed from three the global balance of power. intentions so much so that in 2007 the to 61 in just a decade (2000-2010) then director-general, Pascal Lamy, with trade between countries in this cautioned that this “proliferation is area worth $3.5 trillion (€3tn) in breeding concern – concern about the 2012. And the trend shows no signs incoherence, confusion, exponential of slowing: Asia’s most recent free increase of costs for business, trade deal was signed in late 2014 by unpredictability and even unfairness the region’s two heavyweights China in trade relations”. and South Korea. In terms of But these warning bells haven’t put a exporting countries, they respectively dent in south-south trade, quite the represent the world’s number one reverse. The WTO itself reports that and number seven. With that in mind, in the last 20 years (1990-2010), the the implications of the deal are easy number of preferential trade enough to imagine. agreements rose from 70 to 300 with The lion’s share of the business has those involving southern countries obviously gone to China: at the end of contributing considerably to that 2012, it had exported products worth increase. Indeed, free trade treaties $1 trillion (€880bn) to other between developing countries developing countries. But many other represent roughly two-thirds of the nations have now joined it as leading world total. players on the export stage thanks to And the sheer value of the exports is the boom in south-south trade. Along mind-boggling. According to 2012 with the well-known names figures published by the United exporting oil and natural gas, Nations Conference on Trade and newcomers recording high levels of Development (UNCTAD) in its export-oriented growth include Handbook of Statistics 2013, world Vietnam, Egypt, India, Turkey, Peru, trade more than tripled in value over Colombia, Brazil, Mexico and Chile. 20 years, reaching $18 trillion The most surprising success story of (€15.7tn). Virtually half this growth all, however, is the commercial came from exports of developing development of Africa over recent MARTA NASCIMENTO/REA/CONTRASTO 

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dossier TTIP: To be or noT To be

years. Between 1995 and 2012, South-south trade: Meanwhile, the rest of the world is African countries racked up the a challenge for not immune to environmental highest growth in exports towards sustainable agriculture pollution. For example, the burning of other developing world destinations, forests in Indonesia – set alight to free and even Africa’s least developed hile trade in food products up land to grow soya beans and palm nations did the continent proud. The Wbetween developing countries oil – is responsible for respiratory latter in particular were quick to ride in the south is enjoying an infections in the population of the crest of the Asian wave. They unprecedented boom, the lack of neighbouring Singapore, caused by exported their own energy, sustainability standards for many of the airborne ash. There is an urgent agricultural and manufactured goods the crops involved is sowing the need to establish common to the parts of Asia with the greatest seeds of an environmental crisis. international standards to stem these demand, receiving in exchange – or Soya beans and palm oil are the main negative effects and make the often in addition - a significant share commodities here. But their cultivation of these crops sustainable. of the Far East’s inward investments. cultivation aggravates deforestation But the conflicting interests of The result is a new network of and results in a loss of biodiversity in developed and developing countries partnerships that are not only leading producer countries such as complicate the task; in fact, the economic but also profoundly Brazil, Indonesia and Malaysia. This deadlock in the Doha round trade geopolitical. Today, these alliances all indicates a sustainability crisis in talks has actually been caused by are a cause for concern for the major the offing. agriculture-related issues. I Western countries and former colonisers who struggle to maintain their once privileged relationships with many of these countries. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), south-south trade today accounts for almost half of the total trade of China and almost 60% of the total trade of India and Brazil. In addition, the south-south trade of each of these countries will continue to outstrip their trade with the rest of the world all the way through to 2050, according to IMF forecasts. This trend has far-reaching implications for global, political and economic power plays, and it pulls much more weight than a mere bean counter’s view of today’s trade figures would suggest. I

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MARKETS AND SOCIETIES 

G Countries with which the EU has a preferential trade agreement in place: The European Mexico; Chile; Peru; Morocco; Algeria; Tunisia; Egypt; Jordan; lsrael; Occupied Palestinian Territory; Lebanon; Syria; Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; Albania; Serbia; Montenegro; Bosnia-Herzegovina; Switzerland; Republic of Korea (South Korea); Antigua*; Barbuda*; Belize*; Bahamas*; Barbados*; Union and its Dominica*; Dominican Republic*; Grenada*; Guyana*; Haiti*; Jamaica*;St Kitts and Nevis*; St Lucia*; St Vincent and the Grenadines*; Suriname*;Trinidad and Tobago*; Colombia; Honduras; Nicaragua; Panama; Papua New Guinea*; South trade partners Africa; Madagascar*; Mauritius*; Seychelles*; Zimbabwe* G Countries with which the EU negotiates or has a preferential agreement pending official conclusion: The first trader by volume in the world, the EU Canada; India; Malaysia; Brazil; Argentina; Uruguay; Paraguay; Saudi Arabia; enjoys a dominant position in the global market Botswana*; Cameroon*; lvory Coast*; Kuwait; Qatar; United Arab Emirates; Fiji*; Oman; Bahrain; Libya; Cook lsland*; Kiribati*; Lesotho*; Swaziland*; and is still the largest and most integrated free Mozambique*; Marshall lslands*; Micronesia*; Nauru*; Samoa*; Solomon*; trade zone in the world. Tonga*; Tuvalu*; Vanuatu*; Angola*; Namibia*; Comoros; Djibouti*; Eritrea*; Ethiopia*; Malawi*; Sudan*; Zambia*; Burundi*; Kenya*; Rwanda*; Uganda*; According to the European Parliament, at least Tanzania*; Central African Republic*; Chad*; Congo*; Democratic Republic of Congo*; Equatorial Guinea*; Gabon*; Sao Tome and Principe*; Benin*; Burkina 36 million jobs are directly or indirectly linked Faso*; Cape Verde*; Gambia*; Ghana*; Guinea*; Guinea-Bissau*; Liberia*; Mali*; to trade. Mauritania*; Niger*; Nigeria*; Senegal*; Sierra Leone*; Togo*; Zambia*; Vietnam; Moldova; Armenia; Georgia; United States of America; Thailand; Japan; Ukraine; Costa Rica; El Salvador; Guatemala; South Africa*; Mauritius*; Madagascar*; Seychelles*; Zimbabwe*; Papua New Guinea*; Singapore; Morocco * Economics Partnership Agreements

EUROPEAN COMMISSION MEMO "THE EU'S FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS C WHERE WE ARE?, JUNE 2013

G Countries with which the EU is considering G EU and Customs Union: G European Economic Area: opening preferential negotiations: Andorra; Monaco; San Marino; Turkey Norway; Iceland; Lichtenstein Azerbaijan; Brunei Darussalam; Indonesia; Philippines; Ecuador; Bolivia 072-075_E_Taccuino Culturale 58_new_Layout 1 14/02/15 07:13 Pagina 72

cultural notebook

MUSIC America?” Intrigued, James asked a British In 1965, however, the American Federa- flight attendant to bring him the “I Want to tion of Musicians had barred The Kinks, also The British Hold Your Hand” single from London and part of the British Invasion, from performing then invited Albert into the studio to intro- in the US for four years. The ban came to- Invasion duce its very first play. wards the end of a tour where both financial The station’s telephones exploded. Girls and personal problems emerged, and the sit- An European cultural dashed to buy the single, which was not in uation came to a head when the band was product conquers the US stock. Capitol tried to ban the song’s airplay, late for a taping session of their biggest hit and not vice versa then changed tack. “I Want to Hold Your Hand” “You Really Got Me” for a popular TV show. hit the airwaves and stores on 26 December In his autobiography, Kinks frontman Ray by Alberto Piccinini 1963, during Christmas vacation, when all Davies claims one of show’s executives kids were at home, glued to their radios. started insulting British bands, saying “Just n 9 February 1964, 73 million US tel- One million copies sold in two weeks. And because the Beatles did it, every mop- evision viewers saw The Beatles on when The Beatles landed at New York’s topped, spotty-faced limey juvenile thinks he Othe Ed Sullivan Show. They sang five Idlewild Airport (soon rechristened JFK), they can come over here and make a career for songs, including “I Want to Hold Your Hand”, were already superstars. himself. You’re just a bunch of Commie wimps. the 45rpm single that had been topping the In August of 1966, The Beatles were back The Kinks, huh? Well, once I file my report on Billboard charts for the previous six weeks. It in the US for what would be their last com- you guys, you’ll never work in the USA again”. was the beginning of the British Invasion, mercial tour. Their single “Eleanor Rigby” was Which is more or less the kind of approach one of the rare instances of a European cultural only number 11 on the charts. It was about a America showed towards football –just as product conquering the US and not vice versa. desperately lonely person, who died in a English as The Beatles and The Kinks – The story goes that Capitol Records had ig- church where Father McKenzie wrote ser- decades later. I nored the Fab Four’s UK singles until by pure mons “that no one will hear”. “No one was chance, in late October 1963, Ed Sullivan met saved”, sang Paul McCartney, accompanied by Alberto Piccinini writes for Venerdì of La Re- The Beatles at London Airport. Sullivan a string octet, apparently inspired by Vivaldi. pubblica, Il Manifesto, Rolling Stone Italia and RAI. booked them on the spot for three televised But that was the least of their worries. In shows, persuaded by manager Brian Epstein. March, in a controversial interview for the Epstein was able to convince Capitol to re- London Evening Standard, John Lennon lease “I Want to Hold Your Hand” in the US in claimed The Beatles had become “more pop- February. He also encouraged CBS News Lon- ular than Jesus”, adding: “I don't know which don to shoot footage of the Beatlemania will go first – rock 'n' roll or Christianity. Jesus sweeping the UK, which was aired on the CBS was all right but his disciples were thick and Morning News of 22 November 1963. ordinary. It's them twisting it John F. Kennedy was assassinated just a that ruins it for me”. few hours later and all other news was As a result, in America’s Deep quickly swept aside. However, anchorman South, the band’s concerts – security night- Walter Cronkite, looking for ways to lift Amer- mares to begin with – met with violent ican spirits in the wake of the trauma, ran it protests from ultra-religious groups. Their again on the evening news of 10 December. records where burned and even the Ku Klux The day after the broadcast, teenager Klan vowed vengeance. Marsha Albert wrote to Carroll James, a DJ at After that tour, The Beatles would play WWDC, a radio station in Washington D.C., one more live gig: the famous Apple Studios asking, “Why can’t we have music like that in rooftop concert in London in '69.

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MuSIc / enteRtaInMent 

ENTERTAINMENT the biggest hits on cable, AMC’s The Walking Dead. In 2011, Oscar winner Neil Jordan (The From idiot Crying Game) said he took his project, The Borgias, to Showtime because cable was a box to empire “wonderful domain for film directors like me who enjoy the kind of material that Holly- The digital revolution wood finds too boring for words”. (Viewers and television: silent but certainly didn’t find the papal programme relentless progress boring: over 30,000 gave it eight stars on IMDB). By 2011 we were watching what we by Natasha Senjanovic wanted, whenever and for however long we REUTERS/MIKE BLAKE wanted – on our computers, to boot. For 2007 hile the media world was fretting had seen the arrival of two online streaming frontier. It's really fun, because I think it is the over the demise of celluloid, an- sites that would further revolutionize TV: future in a lot of ways, of how people con- Wother, quieter upheaval was rolling Hulu and Netflix, until then a hugely success- sume media”. in with the digital revolution. In television. ful online DVD rental service. Internet behe- Another way people consume media now Time of cultural death on TV was called in moth Amazon would also start its own is globally, and although streaming services the late 1960s, when terms like ‘boob tube’ platform, today called Amazon Instant Video. still struggle to enter foreign markets, Netflix and ‘idiot box’ were coined. Then, in the mid- All three charge monthly fees that are nomi- Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos admits it’s 80s, worldwide cable TV came along and a nal compared to standard cable packages. “no secret that we want Netflix to be a global decade later US cable broadcasters – led by Like their pay-TV forerunners, the product. That is our mission”. HBO and Showtime – started creating their ‘streamers’ first offered only third-party con- As part of that mission, the company – own, edgier programming free from the strict tent, but unlike them, were much quicker to which boasts over 50 million subscribers codes regulating content, profanity and nu- transition into original programming and pro- worldwide and counting – invested €75 mil- dity that networks have to endure. duction. None more ambitiously than Netflix. lion in the second-largest TV production ever, By the beginning of the millennium, pay The company is still an underdog com- Marco Polo, to which Netflix also holds all in- TV had exploded, in quality and quantity. Fed pared to, say, HBO in terms of profits, which ternational rights. Netflix has also been the up with Hollywood’s bloated marketing last summer stood at €46.4m and €60m, re- first to accommodate binge watching: the budgets at the expense of production budg- spectively. Yet the former has surpassed its consumption of lots of content in little time. ets and creative enterprise, filmmakers and cable counterpart in subscriber revenue: re- They released the entire first season of writers fled to cable, and shows such as The spectively, €97m to €96.6m as of August Marco Polo and second season of House of Sopranos and Weeds quickly amassed cult 2014. And that margin is growing thanks to Cards at once, simultaneously satisfying followings and accolades. content quality. viewers’ appetites and reducing piracy. Even prestigious film actors landed their In 2013, Netflix earned 31 Primetime And with Amazon hot off their US Golden own shows, including Glenn Close (Damages) Emmy nods, mostly for two series: runaway Globe win for Best Comedy Series, for their and Holly Hunter (Saving Grace). Auteur di- hit Orange is the New Black (OINB) and the transgender triumph Transparent, the rectors – Gus Van Sant (Boss), Agnieszka Hol- Kevin Spacey vehicle House of Cards. streamlined and stream-savvy online plat- land (The Wire) and David Fincher to name OITNB creator Jenji Kohan, says she took forms are proving that the new frontier is just but a few – also started helming TV episodes OITNB to HBO, Showtime and Netflix: “The good old-fashioned storytelling in high-tech or developing their own projects. greatest thing about Netflix was that…they packaging. I Academy Award-winning screenwriter-di- ordered 13 episodes without a pilot. That's rector Frank Darabont (The Shawshank Re- miraculous. They were new, they were Natasha Senjanovic is an American trans- demption) created what is currently one of streamlined. And I love being on the new lator and screenwriter.

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THE EAST BOOK essence, the concept is fairly simple: human well-meaning belief that the status quo nature is selfish. And it was true. should be maintained. As Wolf points out, The crisis The mistakes, Wolf recalls, were many. It neo-Keynesianism, post-Keynesianism, had been believed that Lehman Brothers, the modern monetary theory, the Austrian according to US bank ranked fourth in terms of assets, school and Wicksell's differential have of- could fail without too much of an impact on fered interesting food for thought and Martin Wolf the US economy. Instead, its collapse as- changed attitudes and nature, but they consumed epic proportions and managed to tinue to reveal an outrageous degree of intel- How to avoid making freeze out all global commerce for weeks. It lectual orthodoxy. "Only by changing the the same mistakes had the same impact as a war. And then there thought patterns of today's students, trying was the eurozone. An economic area built to to stimulate them so we ourselves can be by Fabrizio Goria unite but which has ended up becoming in- stimulated, can we hope to mitigate the ef- creasingly divisive. The European Central fects of future crises", writes Wolf. Investing ry and think back on how your life Bank learned its lesson and is trying to save in knowledge to change the social system has changed since the financial crisis the euro. Had this not been the case, the fi- and, as a result, the political and economic Tbroke out in 2008 with the collapse nancial universe would have been swept one is perhaps the most effective weapon of the investment bank Lehman Brothers. away like a twig in a maelstrom. the world can deploy. The problem is not so Most likely we're depressed, feeling poorer, In the background of the financial crisis, or much realising it. For Wolf, "the problem is ap- maybe thinner and have little to dream about. better crises, there's an economic school of plying it. And we're late already". I It's not easy having to tighten the purse thought that is moving ahead very slowly and strings or trying to understand where we sluggishly compared to other fields of aca- Fabrizio Goria contributes to corriere della went wrong. Yet this is the only way can we demic research. It seems unable to come up Sera and panorama. He also serves as editorial hope to avoid the mistakes of the past. It’s with anything new, perhaps out of sloth or a director for east's website, eastonline.eu. also, as it turns out, the premise behind Mar- tin Wolf's most recent book, The Shifts and the Shocks: What We've Learned—and Have AUTHOR: Martin Wolf Still to Learn—from the Financial Crisis. artin Wolf is associate editor and chief When in the spring of 2007 it transpired economics commentator for the that the entire US real estate market was M London-based Financial Times. Born in completely bloated by subprime loans, many London in 1946 in a Jewish Austrian-Dutch began to quiver. The world was sitting on a family, Wolf studied economics and time bomb about to explode. The blame was philosophy at Oxford and has never desired pinned on financial instruments such as de- to earn a PhD because an academic career rivatives that are so complex that even their doesn’t interest him. He is considered the creators were unable to calculate the mark- ultimate world economic commentator. to-market price of the individual product. Wolf was named a Commander of the Order Wrong. It wasn't the tool itself that was caus- of the British Empire, or CBE, for his work in ing the damage, it was how it had been used. developing the field of financial journalism. "All you need do is take a kid just of college, His books include Why Globalization Works The Shifts and the Shocks: hand him a portfolio of clients and promise (2004) and Fixing Global Finance (2009). What We’ve Learned – and him a 100% bonus on his yearly salary and Have Still to Learn – from the The Shifts and the Shocks: What We've he'll turn into a criminal", said Jim Rogers, one Financial Crisis by Martin Wolf, Learned – and Have Still to Learn – from the of the top commodity brokers in 2008. In Penguin Press HC, 2014, pag. 464 Financial Crisis is his most recent book. I

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BOOKS / FOOD & cuLtuRe 

FOOD & CULTURE European gourmets up in arms European foodies fear lower safety and quality standards, while Americans could get their teeth into new delicacies

PAUL LANGROCK/ZENIT/LAIF/CONTRASTO by Elisabeth Roman

he negotiations over the Transatlantic GMOs are also a core issue in the debate. credibility of our whole food production Trade and Investment Partnership According to the US Grocery Manufacturers process”. T(TTIP) are setting off alarms among Association, 70-80% of the food consumed According to a report published by the EU European gourmands who fear the arrival of in America contains genetically modified in- Parliament in July 2014, European food ex- hormone-infused meat, hidden GMOs and gredients. And while the EC has reiterated ports to the US would rise by 60%, while Made-in-USA ‘Parma Ham’ on the Old Conti- that it does not intend to relax EU regula- goods imported from the US would increase nent. Their fear is such that agro-alimentary tions, Gaetano Pascale, president of Slow by 120% by 2025. The findings state: “If issues are at the very heart of the Stop TTIP Food Italia, one of the signatory groups of trade is liberalised without regulatory con- campaign. Stop TTIP, doesn’t feel all that reassured. “I vergence, EU producers may face adverse The main concern lies with food safety. believe the Commission has good intentions”, competitive effects”, yet if regulatory conver- Whereas European regulations monitor he says, “but how can we check once the bar- gence “were to level the playing field, there every step of the food production process, riers are lifted? Percentage thresholds above would be a risk of downward harmonisation”. the US only controls the final product. More- which a product must be reported as GMO are Lastly, there is the question of designa- over, many American practices are prohibited different in the United States”. tions of geographic origin (GI), the legal value in the European Union, including hormone- According to the EU, the treaty will boost of which the US does not always recognise. treated meat, anti-microbial treatments to European exports to the US. In particular, ex- The European Commission intends to nego- sanitise chicken carcasses and growth pro- ports of high valued-added products – such tiate “protection for an agreed list of EU GIs moters in animal feed to name but a few. as wine, liquor, cheese, cured meats and and enforcement of rules against their mis- European food lovers are also worried by chocolate – will benefit. Thus far they've use”. But this would not prevent American the statistics. According to the 2011 esti- been hindered by tariff barriers and other imitations designated with terms such as mates of the US Center for Disease Control, measures. In short, it will be a good deal for ”style” or “type” from showing up on Euro- every year roughly 48 million Americans get both American foodies – who will be able to pean supermarket shelves at lower prices. sick and 3,000 die from food-borne illnesses, enjoy Gorgonzola, champagne or Jamón Ser- “Our system is founded upon the speci- whereas in Europe in 2011, those numbers rano more readily – and European companies. ficity and brand recognition of foods. We fear were 70,000 and 93, respectively. Last December, the association of Euro- that territoriality will no longer be a defining Aware of the growing resistance to the pean farmers Copa-Cogeca signed a declara- value with the treaty”, says Slow Food Italia’s TTIP, the European Commission (EC) has tried tion in favour of the negotiations, yet Pascale. And detailed labelling, which would to reassure citizens in its public documents, Secretary-General Pekka Pesonen remains give consumers the necessary information to stating that “Basic laws, like those relating to cautious: “There is much potential because make informed choices, is encountering re- GMOs or which are there to protect human many of the 320 million Americans are inter- sistance in the US. I life and health, animal health and welfare, or ested in European products. But we do not environment and consumer interests will not support in any way a lowering of European Elisabeth Roman, a French author, favours be part of the negotiations”. safety standards, which would question the natural food and local gastronomic traditions.

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world

effectiveness of the CIA’s current structure at a Washington time when “the need for integration has never been greater” as an increasing number of agency missions “cut across our organizational notebook boundaries”. Since the CIA’s founding in 1947, its employees by Luca Borsari have been assigned to four directorates. The National Clandestine Service sends agents on I CIA overhaul under evaluation covert operations overseas; the Directorate of The director of the United States’ Central Intelligence provides President Obama and top Intelligence Agency, John Brennan, is policymakers with timely information produced considering splitting up the organisation’s by an extensive team of analysts; the Directorate analysis and spying divisions and setting up of Science and Technology develops hybrid sections dedicated to specific information technology tools, while the geographical regions and threats to national Directorate of Support provides administrative security. Still in the preliminary phase, the to logistical assistance and training. . A cyclist on a snowy proposal has already been submitted to an Brennan’s new breakdown would create centres day in New York. The number of young internal committee of the Virginia-based agency complete with analysts, operators and support Americans who do to evaluate its effectiveness. personnel, replicating the structure of the CIA’s without cars in favour of other means of The article in The Washington Post that Counterterrorism Center. transport is on the rise. mentioned this plan also contained parts of a message Brennan sent to employees. In the I / The head of the CIA, Young Americans prefer bikes John Brennan. message, he expressed concern over the The evidence is undisputable, the reason less so: young Americans are losing interest in cars. They aren't buying as many and often don't even bother passing their driving test, which in most US states can be obtained at the age of 16. A study conducted by the United States Public Interest Research Group (PIRG) confirms that millennials – those born between 1983 and 2000 –prefer alternative solutions to driving to work: public transportation, bicycles or working from home. The percentage of US high school seniors (in their last year of school) holding driver’s licences is also on the wane: from 1996 to 2010, it dropped from 85% to 73%. There are several reasons why kids are no longer interested in owning a set of wheels. Recession for one, which has certainly made it harder to buy a car. But some trends, including

REUTERS/CONTRASTO LARRY DOWNING the rising number of young Americans now

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washington notebook |

US: hits and myths by Luca borsari

The US economy is booming. But how does this success affect Europe and China? What items weigh most heavily on Washington's budget? Fact-checking has an answer for many of these questions.

China holds over half of the US public debt FALSE Even though China holds the most US Treasury bonds, which in October 2014 had a book value of $1,252 billion (€1,100bn), this figure only accounts for 10% of the entire US debt in public hands, which at the same time stood at $12,800 billion REUTERS/CONTRASTO/LUCAS JACKSON (€11,300bn). Japan has a very similar share of Washington's debt, living at home with their parents, were already amounting to $1,222 billion (€1,075bn), but this seems to receive in the pipeline. much less attention, not to mention Belgium, third in this particular New lifestyles have also emerged with growing ranking, but very rarely considered one of the 'foreign owners' of numbers moving into urban centres where cars the US economy. Even considering all the shares of US public debt ownership makes little sense or is being in the hands of other countries, we are still below 50%: it was 41% replaced by technological evolutions such as car in 2003 and in recent years has grown to around 47%. sharing and car services run by the likes of Uber and Lyft. Not everyone agrees with this analysis, and especially the large auto companies. “I don’t see any evidence that young people are losing interest in cars”, General Motors’ long-time Chief Economist Mustafa Mohatarem told Automotive News. “It’s really the economics doing what we’re seeing and not a change in preferences”.

I Results that count The US economy ended 2014 with a tailwind,

registering an estimated growth of 2.3% that, REUTERS/CONTRASTO/KEVIN LAMARQUE according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, should accelerate to 3.1% this year. US growth is the primary factor in deficit reduction There are numerous positive indicators: share TRUE One of the least emphasized successes of the Obama indexes repeatedly reaching record highs; the Administration has been the reduction of public debt: the US economy adding 2.95 million jobs in 2014, drop recorded in 2013, when the deficit was cut to $680 billion the largest increase since 1999; and (€600bn) from the $1,100 billion (€970bn) of the previous year unemployment last December dropping by over has been the largest drop recorded since the second world war. The main contributor to this success story has been the increase a percentage point to 5.6% over the last  in tax revenue (+12.9%) caused primarily by the acceleration in economic growth. 076-078_E_Taccuino da Wash*_Layout 1 14/02/15 07:22 Pagina 78

world | washington notebook

The US public finance indicators are better than Europe's FALSE Even though the United States' gross national product has been clearly better than the eurozone's over the last five years, when it comes to the indices describing the state of health of public finance, the judgement is reversed. For Washington, the deficit/GDP ratio that in 2010 was as high as 11.3% has been almost halved, dropping to 5.5% in 2014. But these levels have always been higher than those achieved in euroland, which, from a deficit/GDP ratio of 6.2% in 2010 dropped last year to 2.9%. The same outcome is obtained when analysing the relationship between public debt and GDP: the values posted in the US, which has seen this parameter grow from 94.8% in 2010 to 105.6% in 2014, are constantly higher than those of the Single European Currency countries, where during the same period they have increased from 85.9% to 96.4%. CREDITO REUTERS/CONTRASTO /BRENDAN MCDERMID

Tax deductions and tax avoidance have a greater 12 months, the best result since 1984. impact on the US budget than defence and social Perhaps the most important result, however, is security spending how the American economy has managed to TRUE According to Tax Policy Center data, in 2014 the tax shrug off the crisis signs hailing from Europe, revenue lost by the US tax offices due to avoidance and tax Latin America, China, Japan and Russia. deductions totalled $1,400 billion (€1,235bn) while the General According to many economists, this instability is Accountability office estimates the figure at $1,100 billion partly due to the delayed effects at the tail end (€970bn) in 2013. These sums are much higher than the of the great economic crisis of 2008, the worst in expected 2014 defence of $600 billion (€530bn) or Social nearly 80 years. Security payments ($845bn - €745bn). If we consider that the Unlike other economic recoveries, the current forecast for overall public spending in 2014 stands at $3,500 one was particularly slow to materialise: it has billion (€3,085bn), it transpires that tax avoidance and taken America six-and-a-half years to regain the deductions amount to a third of the total. The most significant tax 8.7 million jobs lost during the recession. deduction items include home mortgage interest payments and Nonetheless, two major factors are contributing employer-sponsored health policies. to the revival of the US economy. The first is plummeting oil prices – from $110 (€93) a barrel to nearly $50 (€42) at the beginning of 2015 – with positive repercussions on interest rates and consumption. The second factor is wage growth. As more job opportunities become available, there are now also tentative signs that salaries too are on the increase.

Luca Borsari is editor-in-chief of askanews and writes from Washington, D.C. for the huffington Post and il Messaggero. REUTERS/CONTRASTO /PHIL MCCARTEN 78 | EAST 079-081_E_Sinai Bertoluzzi Spocci_Layout 1 14/02/15 07:26 Pagina 79

EGYPT |

under successive governments. And since the 1990s, jihadist movements have been exploiting The Pharoah the local population’s resentment. From the 1973 Yom Kippur War onwards, the Sinai has been a pawn in relations between Israel vs the Caliph and Egypt, but also within Egypt’s own internal politics. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi based his The jihadists swear loyalty to al-Baghdadi credibility on the fight against the terrorist threat and unite under the Islamic State of Sinai in Sinai. His claim to fame came in May 2013 (as defence minister) with the successful release of by Giulia Bertoluzzi and Costanza Spocci seven kidnapped policemen. From then on, his rise has been unstoppable. As a ’man of the people’, he ousted the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed ince the Sinai returned under Egyptian Morsi as president in July 2013 before securing rule in 1982, the state has failed to pro- election as president himself in May 2014. S mote any development policies for the The recent Gaza war and al-Sisi’s role in the north of the peninsula, large sections of which ceasefire negotiations held in Cairo have helped have no access to drinking water or electricity. For to revive Egypt’s standing as an international decades, the inhabitants of North Sinai have suf- mediator, restoring relations with Israel and the fered discrimination and repressive policies trust of the Americans, particularly after last  REUTERS/CHARLES PLATIAU

. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi attending a military ceremony.

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world | EGYPT REUTERS/CONTRASTO/IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA REUTERS/CONTRASTO/IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA

November’s announcement that granted Israel This context enabled the jihadi militant group the opportunity to establish a 'buffer zone' along Ansar Beit al-Maqdis (ABM) to form and evolve. the Egyptian border with Gaza (500m by 13km It was initially conceived in 2011 as an umbrella at first, now expanded to 1km by 13km). organisation for all jihadi groups in North Sinai The 10,000 refugees from Rafah sheltering in with the express purpose of boycotting Egyptian- tents and shantytowns near the North Sinai gov- Israeli relations. Once the government embarked ernorate’s capital, al-Arīsh, have now been joined on Operation Sinai, the ABM concentrated its at- by those fleeing the military offensive ongoing tacks almost exclusively on the Egyptian state. On since July 2013. According to local sources, noth- 14 November 2014, the group swore allegiance to ing remains between the cities of Rafah and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and to the Islamic State Sheikh Zuweid but the ruins of Bedouin villages (IS), changing its name to Wilayat Sinai or State that are now used as strategic bases by the jihadis. of Sinai. Following the 2011 revolution, the Bedouin The jihadis now aim to extend the Caliphate tribal fabric disintegrated significantly with across Egypt and to target the embassies of coun- changes in the crony relationship between state tries involved in the US-led coalition operating in and tribes. Tribal heads have lost their power on Syria and Iraq. On the one hand, Wilayat Sinai’s the ground and many members of the weaker alliance with IS gives the Egyptian armed forces families, attracted by weapons and power, have reason to escalate their interventions in North gravitated to the jihadis, who are seen as having Sinai, yet on the other hand, it guarantees the greater resolve than the clans or the state. group access to considerable finance, training and

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EGYPT |

inefficient and counter-productive. According to - Demonstrations by sources close to military intelligence, al-Sisi ap- Pa lestinian students against the closure pears to have pensioned off people with decades of the Rafah border of experience in counter-terrorism in Sinai, and crossing between even though the operations are carried out in Egypt and the Gaza Strip following two desert or mountainous conditions, he has only attacks on security rarely deployed special forces. The fight against forces in Sinai.

terrorism is being spearheaded by foot soldiers - A Palestinian from North Sinai, terrified out of their wits and woma n awaits the poorly trained. They open fire on anything that opening of the Rafah border crossing. moves, knowing full well that, “if you kill civilians in Sinai, it is not a problem for the military”. After all, so long as the terrorist threat remains, the political legitimacy of the current government is also in the balance. I

Giulia Bertoluzzi has been in Cairo since 2012. She reports on Egypt for Italian and Swiss-French daily and weekly newspapers. Costanza Spocci, a freelance journalist in Cairo, writes about politics and culture for Italian, Swiss and English publications.

support in spreading the IS brand. This also means a larger recruiting basin, not from abroad Key dates but from inside Egypt where many disillusioned n 14 August 2011, Egyptian youngsters view IS as an alternative to the repres- Otroops launched Operation sion they suffer in their own country. Eagle in North Sinai, and for the For the most part, the main active cells are first time since 1979, Israel local. They number around 3,000 according to allowed Egypt to deploy 2,500 Egyptian security service sources, though Sinai troops and 250 tanks on the experts put that figure closer to a couple of peninsula. Operation Sinai dozen. Operations have a local emphasis too and followed the year after as a new developments are emerging in this sphere. response to the ambush on On 5 January 2015, Wilayat Sinai distributed 5 August in which militants killed compensation to civilians whose houses had 16 soldiers and overwhelmed the the deaths of another 26 police been destroyed to create the buffer zone, proof Kerem Shalom border crossing. officers and again in the wake of a that the jihadis have now added the tools of prop- After the overthrow of President tourist bus bombing on aganda and welfare provision to their armoury. Morsi on 3 July 2013, two more 16 February 2014. On 24 October, Egypt's response remains confined to its anti- battalions were deployed in the as the deadline for the Gaza terrorist operations, a battle that has garnered area and on 27 July access to the peace talks loomed, 31 more praise for al-Sisi from Western governments, entire peninsula was sealed off police officers were killed. Al-Sisi though these actions have often turned out to be during the Desert Storm declared a state of emergency, operation. Action intensified and the military began using after 18 August 2013 following armed drones in Sinai. I 082-083_E_Israele Barbati_Layout 1 16/02/15 13:16 Pagina 82

world | ISRAEL

Elections and US tensions Early elections in Israel amount to a referendum on Netanyahu's policies. Will the Israelis once again opt for the safety ﬁrst option, or could other issues hold sway

by Gabriele Barbati REUTERS/KAY NIETFELD/POOL/CONTRASTO

arly December marked the de facto start Apart from the difficulties of initiating social of the Israeli election campaign when reform and real peace talks with the Palestinians, E Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Netanyahu has clearly been pursuing his own po- sacked his ministers of finance and justice, Yaer litical endgame. He thwarted his centrist allies – Lapid and Tzipi Livni, respectively. In a live tele- Lapid and Yesh Atid as well as Livni and her Hat- vision broadcast that same evening, Netanyahu nua movement – while constantly dwelling on Is- announced early elections and relaunched his rael’s enemies at the gates: Hamas and Hezbollah message to the nation: Israel needs an expert in Lebanon, the Islamic State (IS) and Iran. leader, next time vote for me alone. Thus, the country is back on the starting It was a carefully calculated risk, based on the blocks for an election campaign that continues communication grip that Bibi (as he is known at along the same lines as two years ago – namely, home) has always had on Israelis. Netanyahu security vs. economy. Which begs the question: knew that the coalition experiment to emerge Has the political dogma of ‘security at all costs’ from the January 2013 elections – between the worn thin? right wing led by his Likud Party with its relative Netanyahu’s opponents accuse him of divert- majority and the centrist Yesh Atid and Hatnua ing billions of shekels into military spending and parties – had failed some time ago and would not expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank last through the second half of its term. and Jerusalem without even protecting Israelis Events were partly to blame for the fact that from rockets and attacks. election results did not match initial expectations. Isaac Herzog, standing for prime minister on The war in Gaza and the resurgence of violent at- the single Zionist Camp slate with Livni, has ac- tacks in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv meant security cused Netanyahu of being “cut off” from everyday became a higher priority. However, Israel’s mod- life and of making a fine art of exaggerating erate politicians, who held a quarter of the seats threats. Herzog’s platform combines social spend- in the previous parliament, also failed to keep ing, insecurity and middle-class aspirations in a their promises when they had the chance. hybrid left-right mix that could hurt him at the

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US support has always come Israel’s way at crucial times. “There are deep divisions between the current governments over which interests and terms should prevail with regard to the Palestinian question. But the alliance between Israel and the United States is solid”, says Max Singer, cofounder of the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington, D.C. During his trip to Jerusalem in March 2013, President Obama made one of his classic speeches, saying “the only way for Israel to endure and thrive as a Jewish and democratic state is through the realization of an independent and viable Palestine”. It was a message he reiterated in private meetings with the Netanyahu government. Indeed, rather than two states (one for the REUTERS/CONTRASTO/KEVIN LAMARQUE Palestinians and one for the Jews), the idea that a ballot box, despite the positive opinion polls. In 0 Israeli Prime single state containing the current explosive situ- fact, some analysts and members of the intelli- Minister Benjamin ation will be created by inertia is more than just Netanyahu during a gentsia believe the only way to change Israelis’ recent parliamentary a possibility for many here, both Israelis and long-held idea that other leaders could improve address. In December Palestinians, who are exasperated by the stalled their lives but only Bibi lets them sleep soundly at Netanyahu ﬁred his peace talks. ﬁnance minister, Yaer night is to stand as a real alternative to Netanyahu. Lapid, and his justice While Israel and the US may currently be out Forecasts predict that Likud and Zionist Camp minister, tzipi Livni, of synch, their relations have not changed, despite and announced early will win around 20 seats, far from the 61 (out of elections. the fact that in the second half of last year, which the Knesset’s 120) needed for a majority govern- was riddled with conflicts, many Israelis did won- 0 ment, so they will have to form a coalition. Ne- american President der what would happen if there were no money Barack Obama during tanyahu can count on strong allies: the national a meeting with the and weapons from America to protect them. right-wing Yisrael Beitenu Party and extremist re- Israeli prime minister Obama has been a pro-Israel president, as per tra- at the White House. ligious party HaBayit Ha Yehudi. The centre-left, Us-Israel relations are dition, despite opening up somewhat to Islam and on the other hand, should try and incorporate the at a very critical stage. Iran at the start of his presidency. Yet ultimately, newly formed Kulanu Party, the radicals of and without constraints, he surprised everyone Meretz, the Hadash Communists and the Arab-Is- by easing certain restrictions with Cuba. raeli parties and perhaps even strike a deal with Israelis only want one thing apart from the sur- the ultra-orthodox religious factions. vival of their country: the presence of their polit- Netanyahu himself seems sure he will win. ical and military guarantor, the United States, by Nonetheless, Israel’s difficult relationship with their side. And with Netanyahu in situ today and the international community must also be con- perhaps tomorrow, no one here in Israel can be sidered in the run-up to the elections. Army ex- sure of that anymore. I cesses in Gaza and the occupation have further alienated Israel, especially in its relations with Gabriele Barbati is Jerusalem correspondent for Radio the US. Everyone knows there is no love lost be- Popolare and Mediaset channels and author of the e-book tween Barack Obama and Netanyahu, though Trappola Gaza (published by Informant).

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world | LIBYA

Too many interests at stake Egypt, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia risk transforming Libya into a 'third-party' battleﬁeld

by Karim Mezran and Nicola Pedde

quick fix for Libya’s problems right now Each of these political forces claims to be the is hard to envision. With the UN-led me- legitimate expression of popular will and, above A diation likely to fail, it seems that all all, the champion of the revolutionary spirit that hopes kindled by the Madrid conference last Sep- toppled the previous regime of Muammar tember are as good as dashed. Gaddafi. At the same time, each accuses the oth- The current problem is how to stop the slaugh- ers of wanting to turn back the clock or conniving ter in this bloodbath while trying at least to restore with the jihadists. the basic conditions required to coax the warring Still, the most glaring problem is a political sit- parties back to the negotiating table. uation so divided that it has resulted in two rival Nonetheless, in the light of this situation, one parliaments: the Tobruk-based government thing should be patently clear to the West: the le- headed by Abdullah al-Thani, who came out the gitimisation of Libya’s political forces can only winners in last June’s elections, and the govern- happen through the identification of a real con- ment in Tripoli headed by Omar al-Hassi, which sensus on the ground. Mere abstract suppositions was originally formed as the National Transi- based on naive and inappropriate assessments of tional Council (2011-2012). the problem just won’t work. Amid the shambles of today’s Libya, last No- It isn’t just a choice between secularism and vember its Supreme Court declared the June elec- democracy as opposed to violent Islamism and tions null and void, thus ruling that the authoritarianism, as some factions would have Tobruk-based government was illegitimate. But public opinion in Western countries believe. It’s this parliament promptly received strong support about halting a conflict between militias based on from most Western countries, eager to delegit- what are essentially tribal claims. imise the government in Tripoli. Within this complex situation, militant Is- Once again, the international community lamism has been successful at worming its way has ended up fuelling the personalised politics headlong into Libya. That said, this form of ex- and tribalism that exacerbate the violence in tremism remains a complex, heterogeneous phe- Libya, triggering a fresh political crisis that nomenon that cannot generically be attributed poses a new major obstacle to the country’s sta- solely to radicalism or, even less so, to jihadism. bility and security.

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Indeed, Gen. Haftar’s success in imposing the concept of an ideological confrontation has only served to radicalise the conflict. There is fighting in Benghazi, Derna and many other cities on the western coast, where Zintan Brigades loyal to Haftar battle against the Misrata militias, who support the alliances ruling in Tripoli. Moreover, the Misrata fighters are kept busy in southern Libya by the Tebu tribes, the ethnic minorities loyal to Tobruk. Should the UN mediation fail, therefore, the country would be back in limbo, racked by violence and uncertainty. This would give the forces behind the parliament in Tobruk a free hand to REUTERS/CONTRASTO/ESAM OMRAN AL-FETORI launch a global political offensive to reconfirm the international community’s consensus and recognition for it, flying in the face of the Supreme Court ruling against it. With no internal political solution in the offing, the European countries and the United States should at least try not to fuel the clannish faction- REUTERS/ CONTRASTO /ISMAIL ZITOUNY alism of the conflict underway and refrain from arbitrarily legitimising one faction to the detri- ment of the other. On the contrary, they should use their own political clout to impose a ceasefire with greater conviction and seek to foster unity through a political dialogue that involves all the components of Libya’s complex society. Lastly, all interference by countries outside the area needs to be exposed and firmly condemned. We here refer to all the vested interests that re- volve around Libya -- such as those of Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia -- that run the risk of transforming Libya into a ‘third-party’ battleground. 0 Clashes in Bengasi This ideological confrontation, further exacer- Regional players could end up working against between Libyan pro- bated by the controversial General Khalifa Haftar stability in Libya, which at present calls for polit- government forces and rebels linked to and his supporters in Egypt and the United Arab ical processes that foster inclusion and full repre- the Islamist group Emirates, runs the risk of plunging Libya into a sentation for all Libyan sectors of society. I ansar al-sharia. civil war with no exit strategy or way back in 0 a demonstration in sight. A crisis the international community must Karim Mezran is a senior fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center tripoli against the make every effort to defuse instead of fanning the for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C. Parliament that took oﬃce in tobruk on flames by recklessly offering support solely to Nicola Pedde is the director of the Institute for Global Stud- 29 august 2014. those groups that further its own interests. ies and president of the Middle East and Africa Foundation.

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world | MIDDLE EAST & USA

America heading east? Obama is looking for a "reset strategy" in relations with Moscow while launching his 'pivot to Asia', but the Middle Eastern question is still a thorn in his side

by Viviana Mazza

t’s harder to end wars than it is to begin them”. Barack Obama admitted this I much while outlining the new timetable for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the longest war in United States’ history. With two years still to go on his second presidential mandate, Obama, who had promised to “turn the page on more than a decade in which so much of our foreign policy was focused on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq” is still bogged down in the Middle Eastern chaos. The administration’s priorities were others. When Obama first took office, he was focused on a “reset strategy” for relations with Moscow that soon fell foul to Russian President Vladimir Putin's ambitions in Eastern Europe (and elsewhere). (IS) Caliphate and the resurgence of Taliban ac- Obama also launched his “pivot to Asia”, a plan tivities, there’s been talk of a new, extended Mid- meant to redress the balance of relations with the dle Eastern ‘pivot’. But even without going to Asian continent and China in particular. At the these lengths, it has to be said that this region still end of last year, he announced the fall of the ‘wall’ represents a difficult test – perhaps the greatest with Cuba and sanctions in response to supposed test – of American leadership. North Korean cyberattacks. The president has been criticised for a lack While all these fronts are still open, there of strategy. His caution is also linked to a stated seems to be no end in sight for “the forever war”, ambivalence towards the use of military force. a term coined by former New York Times corre- On the one hand, there’s a desire to reduce in- spondent Dexter Filkins, who reported from Iraq volvement in unpredictable asymmetrical con- and Afghanistan. With the rise of the Islamic State flicts in the Middle East; on the other, there’s

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MIDDLE EAST & USA |

the awareness that an early withdrawal is not a is considering whether to engage in military op- solution. Obama wants to be the president to erations, one should ask oneself “Do we have an welcome the troops home, not the one to have answer for the day after?” recalled them too soon. In Afghanistan in par- The leader’s caution reflects public opinion. ticular, there's the risk of being faced with the Americans are largely tired of endless and expen- same problems encountered in Iraq. A prom- sive wars that, except for the killing of Osama bin ised withdrawal was completed in December Laden, don't seem to have done much for US in- 2011, but the war hasn’t actually ended. The rise terests. But public opinion changes. After chemi- of IS and the dissolution of the Iraqi army – due cal weapons were used against Syrian civilians, primarily to sectarian power wielding by the the majority of US citizens claimed they were Shiites – have forced the US into action once against waging war against Bashar al-Assad’s more with bombings and the dispatch of sol- regime. However, after the release of the videos

REUTERS/CONTRASTO/BAZ RATNER diers (a total of 3,100) cautiously termed “con- showing the decapitations of journalists James sultants” and “absolutely not combat troops”. In Foley and Steven Sotloff, two-thirds of Americans Afghanistan, the 10,000 odd troops left after the said they were in favour of raids against IS. supposed end of the war last 31 December are A key move could be the one suggested by more than expected and could be at risk. They Robert Kaplan in The Atlantic: if Obama is truly have two years in which to train the Afghans set on his ‘pivot to Asia’, he must continue work- and combat al-Qaeda but that doesn’t mean ing on détente with Iran (clearly without falling REUTERS/ CONTRASTO/GARY CAMERON they won’t take on the Taliban if threatened. out with Israel and the Saudis). The dialogue does A lesson learnt by the United States over the not just concern the nuclear program. Tehran is course of the last decade is to avoid sending already collaborating in the fight against the ground troops so as not to get embroiled in con- Sunni extremists in Iraq with troops, advisers and flicts that grow out of proportion. Up to now, air raids. In Afghanistan, it could act as a buffer the primary military action in Iraq and Syria against Pakistani and pro-Taliban Saudis. In has involved air raids, even though (as some ex- Yemen, Iraq sponsors the Houthi tribe, enemies perts have noted) the raids are unlikely to of al-Qaeda, and the country could even counter change the tables on IS in any decisive way. the Chinese influence in the Persian Gulf. In fact, Moreover in Syria, American planes have to this path is one that has already been taken, and share the skies with those from Damascus (fu- one of the main differences between this and the elled by Moscow). Thus, they are ostensibly es- previous administration. 0 american soldiers tablishing an alliance with the regime, though This is a bumpy road due to mutual suspicions ﬁring artillery at the the Pentagon in the meantime is sending 400 that are partly unresolvable. But one thing is cer- Forward Operating Base in sperwan Ghar troops to train the rebels. tain: timetables and deadlines don't suit Middle in the region of But perhaps the most irksome problem con- Eastern developments which are interconnected Kandahar. the american contingent cerns the democratization process. The president with other scenarios in Russia and Asia. And the that has stayed behind has clearly stated that the US must not and cannot president, whether he likes it or not, will be is approximately judged by his actions (or lack thereof) in this area 10,000 strong. deal with issues that are essentially local. At the same time, however, he has acknowledged that as well. I 0 President Barack his greatest regret in foreign policy is having Obama at the Pentagon thanking bombed Libya without worrying about the subse- Viviana Mazza writes about the United States and a the military after quent democratic transition. Obama said to number of Middle Eastern countries (Syria, Iran, Egypt and receiving news on the campaign against Is. columnist Thomas Friedman that each time one Israel) for Corriere della Sera.

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world | nigeria

The uphill struggle of Africapitalism The new philosophy of banker-philanthropist Tony Elumelu promises wealth by combining proﬁt and social enterprise

by Stella Morgana REUTERS/CONTRASTO/AFOLABI SOTUNDE

black suit, white shirt and a flashy red through long-term investments, creating both tie that stands out in all his official pho- economic prosperity and social wealth”. An am- A tographs are standard attire for Tony bitious aim, to say the least: the creation of long- Elumelu. At 52, this Nigerian businessman is term wealth. It’s a “call to action for Africans to promising development and investments in take primary responsibility for [the] develop- Africa. One of the richest men on the continent, ment of the continent”. he has fathered a new business philosophy On 1 December 2014 in Lagos, Elumelu an- called Africapitalism, an African version of cap- nounced that his Tony Elumelu Foundation, the italism in which profit and social wealth are – non-profit organisation he established four years or at least should be – on the same track, thanks ago, was launching a $100 million (€86.5m) pro- to long-term investments. gramme to fund 10,000 start-ups throughout the The idea is to “put the private sector at the continent’s 54 countries and provide support for forefront of African development”, as stated in a new generation of African entrepreneurs. He bold red lettering on the website of Heirs Hold- has promised that these ventures will ultimately ing, a pan-African investment company chaired create one million jobs and add $10 billion by Elumelu. The website also provides a defini- (€8.65bn) in annual revenues to Africa’s economy. tion of the concept – “Africapitalism is an eco- “Africa made me the man I am. I’ve been very nomic philosophy: that the African private lucky”, Elumelu told the Jeune Afrique daily, im- sector has the power to transform the continent plying that his recipe combining social enterprise

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nigeria |

and investment is a way of repaying his homeland tionalising luck”, as he triumphantly proclaimed - Banker – and offering others the kinds of opportunities he in his Economist interview. ph ilanthropist Tony Elumelu, among the himself was fortunate to have. Yet the ten-year path devised by the business- richest men on the The ‘African self-made man’ refrain he favours man and banker is a long one. As Emily Darko, continent, is the in his public addresses has remained pretty much a researcher with the Overseas Development In- father of a new business philosophy: the same for several years now. At the annual con- stitute, pointed out during a panel on Africapi- Africapitalism. ference of the African Development Bank in 2013, talism organised last year by the British daily the man that many in the business world hail as The Guardian, “Neo-liberal capitalism has failed the banker-philanthropist, said, “No one can de- to deliver sufficient benefit to much of the velop Africa but us. I was born in Africa, bred in global population”. And even where a new Africa, schooled in Africa”. African model is concerned, Darko added, “My He later reiterated this statement in the World suspicion is that without change to incentives, in 2015 print edition of the British weekly The most entrepreneurs will carry on with profit- Economist, adding, “If Africa is to […] realise its seeking business as usual and socio-economic economic potential, it must first become self-suf- approaches of community and family support ficient – and the private sector is vital to this will decline as they have been in the West”. process. Imagine the same continent filled with The real turning point would be social enter- businesses that can process crude oil into petro- prise. For example, as the researcher also noted, leum, cocoa pods into chocolate and cotton lint “In Kenya, social enterprises are providing goods into fabric, all while retaining the finished-goods and services that the state never provided. This premium instead of sending wealth overseas”. opens up big questions” about the future. Elumelu certainly has a knack for public There is a risk of promoting social enterprise speaking, and when he held top positions at the from the ground up without genuinely involving United Bank for Africa, he showed great skill in the local population. If this were to happen, the his business dealings. The Nigerian banker goal of bringing real wealth to the poorest sec- promises to solve the continent’s problems -- tions of society would be thwarted. something which he has only achieved in word That’s why Elumelu’s call to action is ad- not deed thus far -- and seems intent on securing dressed to African businessmen, the fundamental his place among the heroes of new sustainable link in the chain. This is spelt out quite clearly in development. the Africapitalism manifesto: “Africa’s business So does Africapitalism truly offer an alterna- elite have the primary responsibility for imple- tive economic model that can create widespread menting” this economic philosophy, because “Afr- wealth and constant growth in the African con- icapitalism is on their shoulders”. tinent? But as things stand it’s hard to imagine major Equating Africapitalism as capitalism in the developments without a clear role for govern- hands of African businessmen is a bit too sim- ments and the actual involvement of local com- plistic. Elumelu intends to go beyond this and ac- munities. Only the numbers, both in the tually tackle the failings of capitalism itself. The foreseeable and in the long-term future, will show challenge he faces is finding a way to combine whether this new model actually works. I profit with social welfare within economies that traditionally rely on the extraction of raw mate- Stella Morgana is a freelance journalist who reports pri- rials and on exports. The aim is to make money marily on Africa and the Middle East. She has written for and then redistribute it within Africa, “institu- Pubblico, Blitzquotidiano and io Donna.

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world | CHINA

Xi Jinping's Imperial dream The Chinese president has launched a pharaonic project to link Asia and Europe. The world power's renewed global ambitions are more than just economic

by Federico Brusadelli

he rebirth of a powerful Chinese nation. came during the Asia-Pacific Economic Coopera- Renewed pride in millennia of history. A tion (APEC) summit held last November in Beijing T rediscovery of tradition now that the anti- in a futuristic hotel designed to resemble a rising Confucian iconoclasm of revolutionary Maoism sun. On the occasion, President Xi – meeting with has been laid to rest. And, finally, a desire to see the leaders of Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos, Mon- the world’s most populated country back on the golia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Tajikistan – prom- global stage after decades of tremendous eco- ised $40 billion (€35bn) in funds for a project that nomic growth accompanied by less-than-tremen- is likely to have quite an impact on global flows: dous geopolitical exposure. These are the essential a new ‘Silk Road', an economic but more impor- traits of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s leadership, tantly infrastructural belt running from the China which began two years ago. Seas to the Mediterranean, following the same This was the agenda that to some extent he trade routes of the Imperial Age. inherited from his predecessors, yet it is also (It's hardly surprising then that this global ex- characteristic of China’s new and more as- pansion of China – the “Chinese Dream”, as Xi sertive course with respect to the past. One ex- has christened it – is built on a harkening back to ample is the recent tensions with Japan, a its 'classical' past in an attempt to fill the void left symptom of the revived nationalist spirit that is by the loss of ideological and cultural mainstays at the strategic core of the Communist Party’s following the collapse of Maoism and the subse- 0 Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang (CPC) attempt to hold together a society that quent materialistic euphoria of the popular “To during his visit to having lost its ideological and identifying bear- get rich is glorious” slogan). Athens pointing at a map of the Piraeus ings risks being disrupted and fragmented in the In Beijing's plans, there are actually two Silk Port where the aftermath of the economic boom. Roads. There is the northern, continental Silk Chinese multinational One sign, among many, of the new (and an- Road Economic Belt, extending from the an- Cosco has acquired two terminals. cient) ambitions of the former Middle Kingdom, cient capital of Xi'an through Turkmenistan,

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china |

When the world was already global

n 1901, in the remote Chinese traditions. Iprovince of Gansu, the ancient Closed by the Islamic conquest of Magao Caves of Dunhuang, Central Asia, the route opened up adorned with thousands of again in the 13th century with the Buddhist statues sculpted into the founding of the Mongol empire, rock, revealed to the world a which was as vast as it was fragile. treasure that was for centuries It was the era when Venetian concealed: a library, walled up in merchants, including Marco Polo, the 11th century, of Chinese, and the first Christian tibetan, Uyghur, sanskrit and missionaries sought unlikely sogdian manuscripts testifying to allegiances with the Court of the the enormous cultural, religious Great Kahn. and artistic vitality of that long the subsequent age of major sea 'corridor' that for centuries expeditions, the establishment of connected the two extremes of states and the crystallisation of the eurasian continent. borders once again contrived to REUTERS/LOUISA GOULIAMAKI/POOL/CONTRASTO A treasure that helped promote close down the eurasian corridor. interest in what in 1877 the today, with the explosion of Iran, Turkey, Russia and even Germany. And the German geographer Ferdinand globalization, these ancient Maritime Silk Road, which from the coastal me- Von Richthofen had christened routes are back in business. And tropolis of Fuzhou passes through Hanoi, the “silk Road". not just from a geopolitical and Jakarta, Colombo and Nairobi (a stopover that It was in Dunhuang during the economic point of view. even the confirms the importance of China’s strategic in- golden age of the tang dynasty – academic branch of world history, vestments in Africa), all the way to the Mediter- which between the 7th and 9th which began to spread in the ranean. The latter project also fits in with century gifted the Chinese empire 1980s, soon and not China’s recent acquisition of important assets in with years of cosmopolitan coincidentally found fertile Piraeus during the Greek crisis. On his visit to splendour – that the silk Road set ground for application in the Athens last summer, Chinese Prime Minister Li off through the Jade Gate and into study of the silk Roads, the Keqiang announced that the Greek port would the desert, carrying gold, silver, predecessors of the global be China's “gateway to Europe”. spices, men, animals and even networks that connect our The plan “opens a new phase in China's out- scientific knowledge and religious contemporary world. I ward expansion”, Chinese state news agency Xinhua triumphantly announced, quoting the president. The agency has furthermore dedicated an information-rich website to the Silk Roads (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/silkroad/index.htm). The project is directly linked to another long- term strategy heavily backed by the government in Beijing: the injection of capital investments in western Chinese provinces, to help bridge the growth gap between them and the more pros-  REUTERS/CONTRASTO/CHINA DAILY 090-092_E_Cina Brusadelli_Layout 1 14/02/15 07:55 Pagina 92

world | china REUTERS/CONTRASTO/KIM KYUNG-HOON

0 A photo of the perous eastern regions. The cities of Xi'an and some Italian experts have welcomed Xi's dream leaders of APeC (Asia Lanzhou, which today are marginal compared to as an “extraordinary driver of development for Paciﬁc economic Cooperation). During the coastal metropolises, and even the more dif- China and Europe”, as Xinhua reports. the last summit in ficult autonomous Xinjiang region would, in the Even the Qianhai Conference, a meeting be- November in Beijing, CPC’s plans, be the first to reap the rewards of the tween European and Chinese entrepreneurs or- Chinese President Xi Jinping promised to set ‘caravans’ of the 21st century. ganised at the end of 2014, dedicated a great deal up a $40 billion fund to The new Silk Roads are an indication of the of attention to the Maritime Silk Road. Yet, as create a "new silk Road". special attention China is now dedicating to the Paolo Borzatta, head of the European House-Am- vast expanses of Central Asia, a region that de- brosetti, one of the event organisers, said in an in- spite its extraordinary geopolitical significance terview to the Chinese press, “Media reports are and energy potential has long been perceived by not effective enough to describe the huge num- the global community as a “blank page in the his- bers and figures supporting both projects”. tory of the world” (a description coined years ago The fact remains that China, after years of a by a renowned scholar, which still stands today). low profile, has in no uncertain terms decided to It will be interesting to see how Russia reacts to assume an international role and to do so as a the expansionist intentions – which may be soft major power with a project that has a marked im- but are nevertheless expansionist – of its eastern perialistic flavour. And while it is up to Beijing to neighbour in what was also the USSR's backyard. come up with the best ways of communicating its For Europe this is nevertheless an opportunity. renewed global ambitions, it is up to others to And for Italy in particular. The final destination evaluate not just the risks this presents, but also of both roads, and the only city located on both, the vast potential. I is Venice, which is dear to the Chinese not only as the birthplace of Marco Polo but also for its Federico Brusadelli is a journalist and a doctoral can- strategic position between the Mediterranean and didate in Chinese history at the University of Naples – Eastern and Western Europe. It's no surprise that L'Orientale.

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JAPAN |

fter December’s landslide victory guar- anteed Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Where to, A Abe a new term until 2018 – even though there was increasing apathy among the electorate with turnout only reaching 53% – he now has a Japan? chance to show the entire world the wisdom and success of his ‘Abenomics’. There seemed to be no alternatives Not that Abe’s economic policies have pro- in the choice of prime minister: duced any significant results since their introduction over two years ago. Leaving aside promises Abe has another chance to show how and proclamations, Japan is only one of two G8 wise and wonderful his Abenomics are countries in recession (along with Italy). And Japan is bringing up the rear in Asia, the conti- by Pio d’Emilia nent experiencing the fastest global growth. Not only is it falling behind China and South Korea, it trails Thailand, Laos, the Philippines and In- donesia too. Abe’s supporters swear this was expected. They claim Japan is going through a period of ad- justment as it readies to take a great leap in the next few months, resuming its rightful role within the international community. But what role is that? This is important to understand because behind the dream of Abenomics lies the nightmare of ‘Abepolitics’. Since the end of the Second World War, we have grown accustomed to the image of Japan as an economic giant and a political dwarf. Thanks to a watertight security treaty with the US (including some provisions still secret to this day), Japan was a country able and willing to forsake a political role in exchange for the freedom to forge ahead with its economic growth. This worked perfectly for everyone until a few years ago. The US believed its initial ‘generosity’ (of sparing Emperor Hirohito from execution) had forever excluded the return of a revanchist right wing in Japan and secured an ally destined to assume an increasingly important strategic role. It worked well for most of Japan’s neighbours – Russia, China and the Southeast Asian nations – who all agreed that its political consol-

REUTERS/CONTRASTO/TORU HANAI idation should be avoided. This is because Asia,

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world | JAPAN

especially those countries once under Imperial the reciprocal claims notwithstanding, this is a . A vigil in Tokyo to occupation, still struggles to trust Japan. clear sign of Japan’s inability, which might be commemorate the Japanese hostages The arrangement also suited Japan. If it hadn’t termed refusal, to negotiate. Kenji Goto and Haruna been for the collusion of a political class whose As long as such claims and assertions were Yukawa killed by IS short-sightedness, arrogance and corruption is championed by a quaint and politically marginal militants. virtually unrivalled worldwide, Japan could have right wing that vegetated under Japan PLC, the H Prime Minister shaken off America’s tight grip. It would have economic giant with whom everyone wanted to Shinzo Abe during the electoral campaign. had other options available today, instead of the trade and invest, all was well. Yet certain requests, usual nationalism invoked to claim a political certain provocations are now being sponsored by role that, all in all, the country could and perhaps the government itself. In recent months, all for- should assume. eign media bureaux and embassies have received But it wasn't to be. Japan continues to instigate an information pack from the Foreign Affairs suspicions, accusations and threats due to its in- Ministry that included a map of Japan and its “inability to come to terms with its past, a responsi- herent territories”. Inherent, not ‘claimed’: a de- bility it shares with the US. The Japanese ruling cidedly unwise move, diplomatically speaking. class was prevented from promoting genuine re- The Foreign Ministry has also requested ¥50 newal when the democratisation process was cut billion (€376 million) out of the new budget to short in the 1950s by the freeing of thousands of imprisoned politicians and business people, all of whom had backed the wartime regime. In addi- The hostage that Japan – much like Italy – tion, its failure to offer sincere apologies for the debacle is among the countries that crimes committed during the many World War II have negotiated and paid for “advances” (as they’re still referred to in some he tragic ending to the the freedom of hostages. The textbooks today) is not forgotten. Thostage situation, tradition began in the '70s “Japan must learn from Germany”, said Xi Jin- besides leaving many with the first highjacks by ping on a recent visit to Berlin. The Chinese pres- questions unanswered and the Japanese Red Army. ident has never concealed his personal dislike for bewilderment over how it Takeo Fukuda, the prime Abe and never misses the opportunity to stress was handled politically by the minister at the time, agreed just how far Japan is from the legitimate ‘redemp- government, has proven how to the liberation of a few tion’ achieved by Germany. Similarly, since tak- incapable the Japanese 'political' prisoners and ing office nearly three years ago, South Korean authorities are when it payment of a ransom President Park Geun-hye has refused to speak to comes to indepenent ($6 million) in exchange for the Japanese prime minister even on the phone. negotiations. the liberation of the Indeed, tensions between Japan and South Because that was what it hostages held captive by the Korea are beginning to worry the US, which has boiled down to. The Japanese terrorists. The problem this signed security and military cooperation treaties government was aware of time was that they weren't with both countries. If a conflict were to arise be- the kidnapping of two of its able to make reliable contact: tween Tokyo and Seoul, it would be a tough call citizens – which took place at twice the supposed for Washington to decide if and how to intervene. different times and more 'mediators' were allowed to What’s more, 70 years after the end of World War importantly in different disappear after having II, Japan is the only country to have open territo- contexts – and immediately pocketed a down payment. rial disputes with all its neighbours: Russia, sent its own official All this was about to be China, South Korea and Taiwan. The validity of representatives on site. published in December by the Beside the official Shukan Post, one of the most statements, it is well known popular weekly magazines in 94 | eAST 093-095_E_Giappo D'Emilia_Layout 1 14/02/15 07:58 Pagina 95

JAPAN |

be used to improve Japan’s image. Half of the money will go to Western academics, who will be invited to rewrite certain ‘delicate’ episodes of recent national history, above all the Nanjing Massacre and the tragedy of the comfort women, the thousands of women from Korea and other countries forcibly sent to the front during WWII to ‘comfort’ Japanese soldiers. These events still arouse strong emotions and suffering in South Korea, especially since the Japanese government has so far failed to take any kind of responsibility for these deeds. And as a recent editorial in the Asahi Shimbun daily suggested, if the government erected a monu- ment in the heart of Tokyo to the enslaved women, this would probably suffice as an

REUTERS/ CONTRASTO/YUYA SHINO apology. One hopes Abenomics will work, because should it fail there’s a risk that Abe – the grand- the country, but following aim to revise the constitution. son of a war criminal who was pardoned by the government pressure, the The Shukan Post even Allies and served as prime minister in the late publisher decided to back provides inside details on 1950s – may further ramp up the nationalism down. "They told us they Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's to detract from his failures. History is rife with were negotiating and controversial Middle eastern examples of regimes that try to shift attention publication would have visit during which he to external issues to justify internal failings. jeopardized the hostages' announced Japan's This would be a real shame because 70 years lives", said the magazine's commitment to provide after the end of World War II, one would expect editor, who then went ahead $200 million (€175m) to the some drive for unity, integration and solidarity and published everything at countries fighting the in Asia too. It is striking that there is a persist- the beginning of February. Caliphate with dubious timing ent lack of political leaders able to initiate such The Shukan Post article seeing as both hostages were a process. pointed out that the still in the hands of IS. Japan’s current emperor, Akihito, has oft in- government's image was at According to the magazine, vited his people to reflect upon and reconcile stake as much as the lives of the trip was about to be themselves with the past. If he wanted to make the hostages. The elections cancelled because Prime an incisive contribution to history and be re- were scheduled for December Minister Abe had thought he membered as a figure like Germany’s Willy and Abe was seeking – and should attend the Brandt and Helmut Kohl, perhaps he might con- got – a new four-year term. demonstration in Paris after sider visiting Nanjing and kneeling for a few The hostage issue could have the Charlie Hebdo massacre. solemn minutes before the Massacre Memorial. somehow 'distracted' the But Barack Obama's absence That would be a step in the right direction. I electorate, more prepared to forced him to forgo this plan follow the prime minister on and confirm his Middle Pio d’Emilia is a journalist and writer. Since 2000 he his economic policies – called eastern trip instead. All in all has been Sky TG24’s correspondent for the Far East. Abenomics – than on the new not a very memorable chapter nationalistic tendencies that for Japanese foreign policy. MArch APril 2015 | 95 096-097_E_Tec e risorse pasotti_Layout 1 14/02/15 07:59 Pagina 96

technology & resources ARCTIC WAR

The Artic Conquest Tensions are rising among nations interested in exploiting the environmental resources. Global warming risks triggering a new Cold War among the ice ﬂoes by Jacopo Pasotti

he Arctic is once again the centre of must still be equipped for extreme a geopolitical standoff between conditions and the distance between TRussia and the Unites States (and to servicing ports is a problem in emergencies. a lesser extent Canada). The European The passages are increasing, but they are Union is playing piggy in the middle and still very few: in 2013, 71 cargo ships hasn’t taken sides. The situation is pretty travelled the northeastern route. The same similar to the Cold War in a climate that is goes for oil exploration and extraction literally – if not politically – heating up. operations, which are increasing but are The ice is retreating and therefore interest still rare. A breakdown or an accident in in the polar ice caps is growing. In the upper these waters involves complex operations, latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, and experts say we are still some way from 2014 was one of the hottest years of the having the capacity and infrastructure to past century. In Norway alone the average respond to distress calls. temperature was 2.2 degrees warmer than Be that as it may, Russian state-owned oil in pre-industrial times. companies Rosneft and Gazprom have The number of nuclear warheads in the Since 2010 the volume of sea ice has been invested around €2 billion in the new Sea of Barents in 2014 reached levels that below the average of the past 30 years. Zvezda shipyards in Bolshoy Kamen for the had not been seen since the Cold War. And The shrinking ice cap has opened up an construction of new ships and oil rigs Russia continues to build nuclear ocean that was for decades sealed off by capable of withstanding the Arctic climes. submarines to be deployed in Arctic the ice floes. It is as if an ice cover was Rosneft has further confirmed that in 2015 waters. removed, allowing for the passage of craft it will be exploring 1,017 kilometres (about The West is certainly not twiddling its less specialised for the Arctic environment. 630 miles) of the Pechora Sea floor with thumbs either. The Norwegian Intelligence New horizons for marine transport and new the aim of setting up new drilling platforms. Services (NIS) recently christened a new opportunities for the exploitation of fossil Although everything is under control for spy vessel, the most advanced of its class, fuels have opened up. the time being, the East and West are which should be operational by 2016. On According to some experts, this optimism sharpening their knives. Russia has the day of the christening, the head of the towards the new northern frontier is reiterated that it will maintain a high level NIS spoke to the press about Vladimir misplaced. While it’s certainly true that the of military activity in the Arctic. Russian Putin's inner circle, which he feels is more Shanghai-Rotterdam shipping route is secret service agents have been carrying aggressive and unpredictable than its 24% shorter than the current course, out exercises in Murmansk, Arkhangelsk predecessors. which runs through the Suez Canal, the and in the Nenets province, specially In the meantime, in December 2013, Arctic is still the Arctic, even with less ice. directed at protecting the oil drilling Canada submitted various examples of The climate remains a limiting factor. Ships facilities. scientific evidence to the UN, staking its

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ARCTIC WAR |

- Gas extraction in the tazovsky Peninsula. a few scientists claim that gas and oil extraction in the arctic is incompatible with the PETER BLAKELY/REDUX/CONTRASTO aim of limiting global warming.

- a group of jo urnalists just after landing at the Russian Prirazlomnoye oil ﬁeld in the Pechora sea. REUTERS/CONTRASTO/KATYA GOLUBKOVA

territorial claim over sections of the Arctic Strong-arm tactics are alternated with threshold temperature that marks the Sea floor. These portions of the marine attempts to smooth things over. Speaking point of no return for dramatic changes to depths are being disputed with Denmark, at a press conference, the Russian global climate. Wouldn’t common sense Russia and Greenland. Canada and ambassador to Canada, Georgiy Mamedov, dictate leaving things as they are? Denmark are even battling with Russia for with reference to the tensions Better still, we could decide to recover the the seabed under the North Pole in which surrounding the Arctic, nevertheless tonnes of radioactive waste that were Russia planted its flag in 2007. confirmed that collaboration between dumped in the Kara Sea (and the The Arctic Ocean is not only the shortest circumpolar nations was a priority. "We are surrounding area) during the 1970s and trade route between the Far East and the interested in the exploitation of resources '80s. In spite of an international West but also a military and strategic in the Arctic and we can only do it agreement of 1972, the Soviet Union hid stepping stone for any (possible) together", he said. "It's very dangerous. at least 14 reactors and 17,000 containers operations against the United States. The Nobody can do it on his own". stuffed with radioactive waste on the Kola Peninsula, which most people In other words, the Arctic is unsafe, Arctic Sea floor. Some of which are now probably couldn’t even locate on a map, is a expensive and fragile. In a study published beginning to rust. I vast Arctic region. This is where Russia in the journal Nature, two British scientists stores most of its nuclear arsenal, ready for maintain that gas and oil extraction in the Jacopo Pasotti is a geologist who writes use in the event of a conflict with the US. Arctic is “incommensurate with efforts to about and photographs scientific, The messages coming from the political limit average global warming to 2 °C”, environmental and social issues. He also community over these issues are mixed. which policy makers generally agree is the teaches communication science.

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world | argentina

This deficit is caused by rampant government ex- penditure, growing faster than inflation. It repre- A make sented approximately 40% of Argentina’s GDP last year and was primarily attributable to government subsidies for energy and wages. or break year Nearly 22% of the Argentinian workforce is employed by the public sector. Only five countries The next government will be required in the Organization for Security and Operation in to save the country from recession Europe (OSCE) exceed that – the four Scandina- vian nations and France – whereas in Chile, only by Jesús Rodríguez one worker in ten is a state employee. Official figures (which are disputed) show that the public sector has seen a 21% rise in employment since t the general elections this coming Octo- Presidenta Kirchner took office in 2007, compa- ber, Argentina will choose its leaders for red to an 8% increase in private sector jobs. A the next four years: the president, 22 of Argentina’s foreign trade balance was also di- its 24 provincial governors and almost all the ma- sappointing in 2014 with both imports and ex- yors and councils of the country’s more than ports dropping by more than 10%. 5,000 municipalities. The elections will further- The widespread decline in imports, a gover- more renew half of the Chamber of Deputies and nment policy introduced to relieve strains in the one-third of the national Senate. export sector, does not however include energy The current Peronist administration led by imports, which last year cost the country over 112 President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is hea- billion Argentine pesos (€11.2 bn) as a conse- ding into the elections plagued by a number of quence of extravagant, generalised subsidies for problems. This grouping has been governing energy consumption. uninterrupted for 14 years and for two-thirds of On the other hand, the drop in exports is attri- the time since democracy was reinstated in Ar- buted to a loss of competitiveness: the exchange gentina in 1983. rate slipped with respect to inflation. It fell to However, Kirchner’s coalition has seen some about 40% less than the average rate recorded of its political capital diminish as witnessed a year when the previous president, Néstor Kirchner ago when one in three Argentinian voters opted (Cristina’s husband), was in power. The inconsi- for the opposition parties at the midterm legisla- stent access to supplies of imported products due tive elections of October 2013. to quantitative restrictions played a role as well The economic context is equally complex. In as the economic slowdown experienced by Ar- the past five quarters, economic activity has de- gentina’s trade partners, Brazil first and foremost. creased, internal and external financial imbalan- Overall, at the end of her mandate, President ces have intensified, the job market is stagnant Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will leave behind and investments are in free fall. a poorer county. According to official data, which In fact, despite record tax revenues of over the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has criti- 35% of its GDP in 2014, nearly twice the average cised as being of poor quality, per capita income in Latin America, Argentina’s budget deficit was is set to fall below levels recorded in 2011 when over 5% of GDP, compared to 1% in neighbouring she captured 54% of the vote to secure re-election Chile and Colombia and just over 3% in Brazil. for a second term. In order to discard the label of

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argentina |

- President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner during a session of the UN Security Council.

/ An illegal set tlement in the outskirts of Buenos Aires. One out of four Argentinian citizens and two out every ten families live in poverty. REUTERS/CONTRASTO/ADREES LATIF

worst performing economy out of the 19 nations in the Latin American region, Argentina will have to pull itself out of recession and regain the two percentage points of GDP it lost last year. Contrary to claims by Kirchner's administration, an adverse international scenario is not to blame for the poor results. This is proven by the fact that on the basis of its projected economic performance from 2012 to 2015, Argentina lies in 142th place out of 153 developing countries. Yet, it was actually thanks to historically favou- rable international circumstances that Argentina was able to accumulate a trade surplus of nearly 1.4 trillion pesos (roughly €138 bn) from 2003 to 2014. That is three times the investment required to develop Vaca Muerta, the world’s second-lar- REUTERS/CONTRATTO/AGUSTIN MARCARIAN gest reserve of unconventional hydrocarbons. But, in spite of this, one in four citizens and two the need for a second ballot to elect the new pre- households out of ten live below the poverty line sident – which would be a first for Argentina - in Argentina today. as none of the candidates currently seems to Most analysts believe Argentinians will have have the necessary numbers to win the initial to choose between continuity and change at the round of voting. October vote. And according to all the opinion Ten months away from this year’s decisive polls, the candidates of the current ruling party elections, Argentinians are certain of only one can only hope to form the leading minority party. thing: this government will not introduce the The other political groups are therefore discus- economic measures needed to pull the country sing possible pre-election deals to avoid the frag- out of recession, fight inflation and reduce mentation of the last presidential elections when unemployment. I Kirchner outperformed the runner-up candidate by nearly 40 points. Jesús Rodriguez directs the Legislative Strengthening If the opposition parties do manage to create Program of the Argentinian chapter of FLASCO (Latin Ame- one or more blocs, the 2015 elections could si- rican School of Social Sciences) and is a consultant for va- gnal an historic turning point. It could result in rious international organisations.

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world | cuba

An economist working for the Cuban state who asked to remain anonymous believes these The ‘Yanquis’ new relations with Washington will have a serious impact on the national economy. “It will be a slow process. The government are back must first consolidate the changes it is introducing to revive our stagnant Soviet style state econ- After over ﬁfty years Cuba opens its gates omy”, he claims. to the world. Many economic changes “They will bring money”, he predicts. “The first revenues will come American tourists and the fig- in sight, but the politics will stay the same ures shouldn't be too far off those predicted: a mil- by Francisco Forteza lion arrivals as soon as the embargo is lifted”. But the “political adjustments will take time”. Six years ago, at the age of 87, when Fidel fell seriously ill, the lider històrico was replaced by his rmando López is a 77-year-old pensioner brother Raul, who embarked on a new phase of from Havana. On 17 December when he economic transformation. The changes are still A heard that the United States and Cuba taking place and have enabled the private sector had signed an agreement to renew diplomatic to employ 476,000 citizens. Hundreds of cooper- ties, he wondered whether he'd have the chance atives have sprung up, managed by former state to welcome back those Yanquis, whose visits had employees. Unused land belonging to the state been terminated by Republican President Dwight has been handed over to 177,000 farmers. Accord- D. Eisenhower on 3 January 1961. ing to official thinking, these changes should also “I can remember that day well. A kind of chill improve the efficiency of the large state enter- fell upon Havana”, recalls López, who at the time prises on which the national economy depends. was only 24 and had recently begun selling cars in “Everything seems to point to a regulated Havana, his birthplace. opening of the economy to international mar- “Near the American Embassy, on the sea front, kets”, says the economist. groups of people were shouting slogans: ‘Fidel, In spite of the changes, which critics claim are Fidel, que tiene Fidel que los americanos no pueden slow and insufficient, the last year has been a bad con él’ (‘Fidel, Fidel, what is it with Fidel, that the one for the Cuban economy. GDP growth was Americans just can’t defeat him’) and ‘Yanquis go “lower than forecast” at 1.3% instead of 2%. home!’. 53 years later everything is different and, This “deceleration”, in the words of the author- perhaps, more complicated”, says López. ities, has been due to the global economic crisis The announcement of the ‘normalization’ of re- and the US embargo on Cuba. The official line is lations between Washington and Havana came that “the progress of the Cuban model” is moving one year after the handshake between Cuban Pres- ahead “without haste but without pause”, but they ident Raúl Castro and Barack Obama at Nelson admit it will be awhile before any positive results Mandela's funeral on 10 December 2013. will show . The authorities are hoping for a 4% in- “It'll be a while before they open a McDonald’s crease in GDP in 2015 that should allow the econ- round the corner”, says López. “There are too omy to make up the lost ground. many differences between the two governments, In order to attract foreign capital, the govern- mainly ideological ones”. ment plans to exploit the fiscal advantages and fa-

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cuba | XINHUA / EYEVINE/CONTRASTO REUTERS/CONTRASTO/KAI PFAFFENBACH

cilitations for capital exports introduced by a new There are many more modern cars on the road 0 Cuban leader Raul law on foreign investment. There's also the new in the capital since the 40-year-long ban on car Ca stro announces the resumption of economic development zone located 45 miles to sales was lifted in 2012, and even the property diplomatic relations the east of the capital. market is perking up. with the United States Government officials claim that if the “normal- The modernization process still has to deal in a public television broadcast to the ization” of relations stays on track, investments with a few infrastructural problems, such as in- nation. will start pouring in from the US, Spain, Italy, Rus- ternet access, which is currently very limited. The 0 United States sia and China to name just a few. majority of Cuban residents are forbidden from President Barack In 2015 Cuba will also have to solve its double using the internet at home. In spite of this, Obama with Cuban currency problem: the peso and the cuc, a con- ETECSA, the state telecommunications monop- President Castro in Johannesburg. vertible peso worth 24 pesos (€0.87). The parallel oly, has announced that it is “evaluating the con- circulation of the two currencies since the '90s is ditions to expand” access. Some months ago the an obstacle to financial transactions and an government already opened a few web access lo- added burden on the purchasing power of the al- cations and even Wi-Fi availability is set to in- ready meagre Cuban salaries. In the dominant crease starting in 2015. state sector, the average is around 500 pesos (€17) The political sphere doesn't seem to have been a month. much affected by the changes, even though “con- However, Havana and the other regions of the structive criticism” is now permitted. The govern- Caribbean island have already changed. There is ment insists that the system will continue to be no official data, but a few of those 500,000 self- based on communist precepts, such as single employed already pocket hundreds, and in some party rule, with the press and the unions at the cases, thousands of dollars a month. In the ‘lux- service of “socialism”, while all opposition that is ury’ activities sector, top international restaurants “in thrall to the empire” will not be accepted. I have been particularly successful. “I can’t complain, we’re always full”, says Car- Francisco Forteza has been a correspondent in Europe, los, the impeccable owner of a Havana bar-restau- Africa and South America for the prensa latina agency and rant, where the prices are still too high for most collaborated in Havana with united press international and Cubans. aNSa. He lives in Cuba.

March april 2015 | 101

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world | cuba

The devil’s in the details The brave American move could mean a dash of hope for the Cuban economy

by Diana Ferrero

ubans woke up on the morning of 17 De- The most immediate news - on humanitarian cember 2014 to alarming news. Their grounds - was the release of American contractor C leader Raúl Castro was about to address Alan Gross, accused of spying and imprisoned in the nation live. All they knew is that he would be Cuba for five years. Definitely part of the deal speaking about the US. But few imagined such was the swap of an American spy, who spent 20 an historic message of change. years in prison, in exchange for three Cuban in- At the same time, from the White House, US telligence agents held in the US. President Barack Obama was finally announcing Obama’s rapprochement makes it easier for what many Cubans thought they would never Americans to travel to Cuba and allows the use hear: the re-establishment of relations between of American credit and debit cards on the island. the US and Cuba, the reopening of a US Embassy The deal could also open a path for a gradual lift- in Havana and the freeing of prisoners on both ing of the US embargo but that would require a sides. In other words, the first steps towards dis- vote by the US Congress. mantling the last barricades of the Cold War in “There is zero possibility of dismantling the this post-revolutionary world. embargo now with this mostly Republican Con- In his speech – which followed a phone call gress”, said Arturo Lopez Levy, a Cuban Econo- with Raúl Castro and secret negotiations that took mist at the University of Denver who left the is- place in Canada and at the Vatican with Pope land in 2001. “But the old image of Cuba as a Francis – Obama said change was long overdue threat, which justified a policy of isolation and after more than a half century of a failed policy. hostility, has been replaced by the image of a “I’m not expecting transformation of Cuban country in transition. And this opens tremendous society overnight”, Obama said. room for negotiation”. The president contends that “engagement is a Cuba has already been through dramatic better tool than isolation”, added a senior US ad- changes since Raúl Castro took over from his ministration official in a White House briefing brother Fidel in 2008, especially since his 2010 call for reporters. reforms. Now Cubans can use cell phones, buy “By further opening up to Cuba, we will be and sell houses or cars, and open small private able to promote openness and reform”. businesses or cooperatives.

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cuba |

“Everything has changed here”, said Italian publican Senator Marco Rubio, a Cuban-Ameri- chef Walter Ginevri, who opened a pizzeria in can and possible presidential candidate. He said Havana four years ago. Back then there were only there was no commitment to freedom of speech, a dozen restaurants in his neighborhood. Now elections, the internet or democracy. “The entire there are 200. A former public school teacher who policy shift is based on the illusion – in fact, on now owns a restaurant can make, on a good day, the lie – that more commerce and access to money what one used to make in a month of teaching. and goods will translate into political freedom for Before the reforms, around 150,000 Cubans the Cuban people”. had permits to work freelance. Now about half a Still, many see Obama’s shift as a bold end- million work in the private sector and another game move that, by no coincidence, came in the half in the cooperatives. “That’s a million people last two years of his presidency. “Now that he – nearly one-fifth of the workforce – on track to- doesn’t have to respond to voters, he has started wards a market-based economy”, said Lopez Levy. doing things he really wanted to do and believes

REUTERS/CONTRATTO/JAVIER GALEANO Still, Raúl Castro’s reforms haven’t been com- in”, said Henken. pletely successful. Private opportunities on the is- The reopening of relations could be a win-win

0 An anti-Castro land are limited to a list of 201 jobs. If you are a deal with advantages for both countries. demonstration in lawyer, for example, you can only work for the For the US, “A significant plus would be the Miami after the announcement by the government. “There are huge barriers for small removal of the issue as a barrier to relations with US government that entrepreneurship”, said Ted Henken, the co-au- other countries of the Americas”, said Kotschwar. diplomatic relations thor of a new book, Entrepreneurial Cuba. “Not Countries in the region have criticized the US for with Cuba had been resumed. many report that about 400,000 Cubans turned its Cuba policy. Now Obama could find more co- in their private work licenses because they went operation on issues like drugs, immigration and out of business”. counter-terrorism. Meanwhile, Cuba’s already weak economy is For Cuba, the deal brings hope for the econ- slowing down to around 1% GDP growth. “More omy, especially now that Venezuela is suffering than 50,000 Cubans leave the country for the US from a crash in oil prices. ever year, and the population is shrinking with a Miriam Leiva, a Cuban independent journalist, negative birth rate”, he added. said, “Raúl Castro desperately needs to ease ten- While he and others say change will never be sions and re-establish relations with the US. The fast enough, some say too rapid of a shift could regime faces a 25-year economic crisis, which it bring instability. has proven incapable of surmounting and which Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Barbara Kotschwar, could worsen if there is decreased financial sup- who recently wrote Economic Normalization with port from Venezuela”, she wrote in her Huffington Cuba, warned about the risk of following Russia’s Post blog series from Havana. quick changeover model, which led to corruption “The historic decisions by both presidents and oligarchs. Instead, they point to China and depend on how they are implemented and how Vietnam as examples of a gradual transition to a much the Cuban government is willing to allow”, market economy. added Leiva. “Nevertheless, once Pandora's box In the US Congress, the re-establishment of is opened, it cannot be shut”. I relations has sparked criticism mainly from Re- publicans. Diana Ferrero is a journalist who has produced docu- “The White House has conceded everything mentaries and programmes for al Jazeera English in the and gained little in return”, claimed Florida Re- US. She currently freelances from Mexico City.

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bad girls WOMEN iN HiSTORY

Enlightenment. Catherine corresponded The Tsarina, the Empress personally with Voltaire and tried her hand at composing an opera. The Smolny and the Popess Institute for Noble Maidens, Europe’s first Two women who've governed half the world, state-financed institution of female higher and one who (brieﬂy) dominated it all education, was established with her patronage. by James Hansen Today, the achievements of her long rule – it lasted 34 years – are overshadowed by her unconventional personal life. oday’s feminism is about purging conversion to the Russian Orthodox faith. After her death, enemies at court began modern society of the abuses of the Though she had been imported to produce spreading the rumour that Catherine had Tpast. It rarely discusses the strong an heir, eight years passed without died while engaging in sex with a horse. women in history who beat men at their offspring. Some historians say Peter was The drab historical truth is that she own game and ruled large parts of the unable to consummate the marriage, suffered a stroke and passed away quietly world without concern for universal others that he was infertile. Perhaps in an in her own bed. suffrage or state-sponsored childcare. attempt to clarify matters, Peter and Wu Zetian (624-705) was the first, and These women did not wait for men to make Catherine both began energetic only, female emperor of China – not room for them. They were detested by extramarital affairs. empress, not the wife, but huángdì, the others of their own sex and time and were However that may be, Peter lasted as czar a imperial sovereign. slandered by later (male) historians who mere six months until Catherine arranged The accepted version is that, having could find no way to ignore their success. his arrest by a group of friendly – and virile, become a consort of the third Tang Catherine the Great of Russia and Wu it is said – military officers. Shortly after, he emperor, Gao Zong, Wu strangled her own Zetian, China’s only female emperor, are was murdered by a brother of another of daughter to frame the empress dowager documented historical certainties. Pope Catherine’s lovers – an aspect that, and destroy her influence. Both the older Joan, the only female head of the Church of historians say, cast a pall over the early woman and her mother were executed. Rome, may be apocryphal, but her historical years of her reign. She then set about removing all other reality was widely accepted by Catholics for Pall or not, Russia was revitalised under her claimants to the throne. At first she four centuries. leadership, finally gaining recognition as preferred slow-acting poisons and then, as Catherine II (1729-1796) reigned over one of Europe’s great powers. her power grew, she invented charges of Russia from 1762 until her death in 1796 at Catherine governed at a time of vast treason for opponents who were brought the age of 67, a period considered the Russian expansion. In the south, the before her throne where they were induced country’s Golden Age. Crimean Khanate was crushed following to kill themselves. Neither Russian nor named Catherine, she victories over the Ottoman Turks, and On the death of Gao Zong, her oldest son was born in 1729 as the very noble but near Russia colonised the territories of ascended to the throne and then, as sons penniless Prussian Princess Sophie Novorossiya along the Black and Azov Seas. will do, proceeded to ignore her. She had Friederike Auguste von Anhalt-Zerbst- In the west, Poland, ruled by another him deposed and he was forced to commit Dornburg and was invited to Russia at age former lover, Stanisław Poniatowski, was suicide. He was replaced by her youngest 15 by the Czarina Elizabeth to improve partitioned with the Russian Empire son, for whom Wu at first ruled as regent. Romanov bloodlines by marrying her gaining the larger share. In the east, Russia She soon dropped all pretence and formally nephew, the future Czar Peter III. even began to colonise Alaska. declared herself emperor of China, the Sophie became Ekaterina (Catherine) on Her reign coincides with the Russian huángdì.

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WOMEN iN HiSTORY |

Her reign saw the complete renewal of the within the Catholic Church. papacy for two years, seven months and dynastic succession as she systematically The first documentary evidence of her four days. He says she was a native of Mainz wiped out all possible competing claimants existence appears in the Universal who, after studies in Athens, settled in to the throne. In one year alone, she is said Chronicles of Metz (about 1240) which Rome where her brilliant lectures and to have destroyed 15 family lines through recount that Pope Victor III (d. 1087) was edifying lifestyle caused her to be executions and forced suicides. succeeded by a talented woman who, unanimously elected pope. Politics apart, Wu’s reign was serene and disguised as a man, rose to the rank of The female papacy was taken as fact for prosperous. She left the general population cardinal before her election to the papacy. four centuries. Both Petrarch and Boccaccio in peace and oversaw a major expansion of She was eventually betrayed when, mention Joan as a historical reality. She even the Chinese empire, extending it far into mounting a horse, she gave birth to a child. figures among the papal busts placed in the Central Asia and completing the conquest of Joan was then tied to the horse’s tail, Cathedral of Siena around the year 1400. the upper Korean Peninsula. Her rule was dragged through the streets of Rome and In 1647 the French historiographer David marked by state support for Taoism, finally stoned to death. Blondel finally pointed out that there was Buddhism, education and literature. Martin of Troppau, writing a no contemporary evidence for her She died, peacefully it appears, in the year few decades later, adds existence at any of the suggested dates 705 at the age of 81 – the only woman to details and adjusts the and that the known facts made it rule China in her own right in 4,000 years. dates of her supposed impossible to fit her in. I From the mid-13th to the 17th centuries, reign. According to his the tradition that there had been a female account, she instead James Hansen, the former editor-in-chief pope – Pope Joan – at a date roughly around succeeded Pope Leo IV (d. of East, served in the US diplomatic service the 10th century was generally accepted 855) and held the and has worked as a foreign correspondent.

- Ca therine II in a portrait by painter Ivan Petrovich Argunov. Her reign lasted 34 years up to her death in 1762 at the age of 67. A period known as Russia's Golden Age. ARCHIVIO GBB / CONTRASTO

MaRcH aPRil 2015 | 105 106-107_E_Fin&Pol Nielsen_Layout 1 14/02/15 08:16 Pagina 106

ﬁnancial trends energy market

Oil prices: winners and losers With oil prices dropping there are clear winners and losers, but the ﬁnancial markets are in turmoil by Erik F. Nielsen

ne of the most striking in oil production – that is, to act as the surprising to see financial markets – and developments in 2014 was the ‘swing producer’ as they used to do. And many commentaries – so confused about Onear-collapse in international oil while markets waited for such a move, the implications. We have plenty of prices during the second half of the year. prices stayed high, encouraging further history and statistics on which to base After having traded steadily in the $100- energy production by more marginal our predictions of what this latest 120 a barrel range since 2011, the producers – with excess supply going into collapse in oil prices means for headline benchmark Brent crude oil price has been storage. inflation, real income and for specific on a virtually constant decline since July Eventually, as global demand for energy asset classes. last year and has dropped below $50 eased further during last summer, A decline in oil prices implies a reduction dollars a barrel. international oil prices eventually began in the ongoing transfer of income and Prices at these levels are not to soften. When OPEC, which produces wealth from users to producers. On the unprecedented. Oil was at $50 a barrel as about 40% of global oil, at their meeting country level, this means that Western recently as 2009, and history – certainly in November decided to keep output and Central Europe, several emerging since the first oil crisis in 1973-74 – is full unchanged, there was only one way for markets and (to a lesser extent) the US of episodes of big moves in international oil prices to go, namely down at a very will be beneficiaries of the lower oil oil prices. rapid pace. prices, while oil producers like OPEC, As anything else in a free (or semi-free) While forecasting oil prices is a fool's Russia, Indonesia and Norway will be market, oil prices reflect demand and game, it seems safe to say that a rapid losers from the lower prices. supply. Demand for oil and other energy and substantial reversal in prices seems In Europe (and the US), the key sources has seen a more moderate unlikely. The global recovery is too beneficiaries will be households, which expansion ever since the onset of the gradual to fuel a strong increase in are now enjoying an increase in their real great recession in 2008, particularly as demand, and while prices have dropped income that they have distributed equally the relatively energy inefficient emerging below the marginal cost of production in between additional consumption and a markets experienced significant declines many areas, shutting down production is restoration of previous years’ savings in growth. During the same period, global also expensive and will come only slowly. ratios. Non-oil related businesses also energy production increased A more abrupt cut in supply would have to benefit – from the lower energy prices substantially, particularly due to the shale come from a geopolitical disaster in the and from the higher demand from gas revolution in the United States. Middle East or a political decision by Saudi households. This is a win-win situation, If anything, it is surprising that oil prices Arabia, but neither options feature in which should bode well for the economic remained so high all the way until mid- mainstream forecasters' scenarios. recovery and equity markets. 2014, but many market participants kept With the generally agreed outlook of Yet, so far, markets seem confused hoping Saudi Arabia would announce cuts continued relatively low oil prices, it is because of excessive concern about

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energy market |

- an oil ﬁeld in the downward pressure from lower oil prices Bashkortostan on overall inflation is temporary. For oil Repubic. prices to keep pushing overall inflation / an oil tanker near down beyond one year, one needs oil Watford City in North Dakota. there is a prices to decline at an ever-faster clip REUTERS/CONTRASTO/SERGEI KARPUKHIN general consensus — hardly a likely scenario. that the price of oil will Among the oil-exporting countries, one stay relatively low. needs to differentiate between those with strong savings balances (e.g., in the form of big wealth funds, such as Saudi Arabia, the smaller Gulf states and Norway), which will come through the present price drops in fine form. In contrast, countries such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela, which live mostly off the cash flow of energy production, are already struggling with the new reality of lower oil prices. The Russian GDP will contract significantly this year, increasing the corporate sector’s financing needs. With sanctions blocking their access to Western financial markets, the central bank has begun to step in and provide dollars and euros to the struggling corporate sector. However, there is a clear limit to how long the central bank can play this role. Unless oil prices bounce back very soon, the Russian corporate sector faces a very difficult 2015 and 2016. Sanctions may, of course, be lifted around mid-year, but even a political restoration of access to DANNY WILCOX FRAZIER/REDUX/CONTRASTO financial markets will only lead to the possible damages to the economy if it becomes a self-fulfilling development needed financial flows if trust is restored stemming from the decline in inflation, because people and businesses begin to also among foreign investors. For that to which has now turned negative. In other delay purchases in anticipation of still happen, economic reforms to liberalise words, inflation has turned into deflation. lower prices. In contrast, deflation is a the economy and make it less energy Such concern is misplaced. Deflation is positive when it stems from an import dependent will be key. I damaging only when it is the result of price shock, such as a decline in oil prices, widespread insufficient demand for that fuels an increase in real income, as Erik F. Nielsen is the global chief goods and services relative to supply and we are now witnessing. And the economist at UniCredit Bank.

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