Greek-Turkish Relations and US Foreign Policy

GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS AND U.S. FOREIGN POLICY Cyprus, the Aegean, and Regional Stability Tozun Bahcheli Theodore A. Couloumbis Patricia Carley UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE CONTENTS Key Points v Foreword ix 1 U.S. Foreign Policy and the Future of Greek-Turkish Relations 1 Patricia Carley 2 Cyprus in the Post–Cold War Era: Moving Toward a Settlement? 20 Tozun Bahcheli 3 Prospects for Greek-Turkish Reconciliation in a 30 Changing International Setting Theodore A. Couloumbis and Louis J. Klarevas Conference Participants 42 About the Authors 43 About the Institute 44 v space limit. The Turks believe they are seeking only to ensure Turkey’s freedom of access to the high seas and international airspace. - Greece claims that several international treaties have provided an acceptable territorial regime in the Aegean and that Turkish actions in the 1970s challenged this status quo by claiming additional KEY POINTS airspace and seabed rights. The January 1996 crisis over the islet of Imia/Kardak intensified Greek apprehensions about Turkey’s aims to undermine the territorial integrity of Greece. The Greeks believe that all the Aegean issues are legal matters that can best be arbitrated in international courts; the Turks insist on viewing them as political matters requiring bilateral negotiations. - Regarding Cyprus, the three main issues in the UN-sponsored negotiation process have been the nature of a federated settlement, security arrange- ments, and territorial adjustments. Turkey claims U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AND THE to seek a bicommunal, bizonal, federal settlement FUTURE OF GREEK-TURKISH based on the sovereign equality of the Turkish RELATIONS and Greek Cypriot communities. Though the Greek Cypriots have long resisted the idea of a - The contentious relations between Greece and federation, there is growing sentiment among Turkey have always been a concern to the United them that separation may not be so unacceptable, States. The two countries have long been at odds especially in view of the Greek side’s greater eco- over the boundaries of the Aegean Sea’s territorial nomic prosperity. waters, ownership of certain small islands, and - control over Aegean airspace. The fact that Greece To address security concerns, the number of and Turkey almost went to war recently over rival Turkish troops should be reduced and matched claims to an Aegean islet indicates the level of ten- with the same number of Greek troops. New arms sion simmering just below the surface. purchasing by the Greek Cypriots, however, is re- sulting in a lethal spiral of arms spending by both - However, the Cyprus question is the most divisive sides. Regarding territory, the Turkish side would issue between Greece and Turkey. After several likely agree to scale back its portion to 28 or 29 outbreaks of violence, the Turkish and Greek percent; however, the Greek Cypriots would have communities on the island have been forcibly sep- to accept that Cyprus can never be a “completely arated since 1974, with little hope for a settlement Hellenic” island. in sight, despite recent heightened attention from - the United States. Greeks remain suspicious of Turkey’s commit- ment to a bicommunal, federal Cypriot republic, - In Turkey’s view, the fundamental source of the not least because the Turkish settlers on Cyprus tension is Greece’s conviction that the Aegean Sea have little interest in supporting a federal system. is Greek. Greece’s current determination to ex- In addition, Greeks contend that Turkish troops pand the limit of territorial waters from six to are present as the result of a well-planned inva- twelve miles would diminish the Turkish and in- sion of the island, and the troops’ presence con- ternational share to an unacceptably low level, as tinues to be a significant source of tension. The would Greece’s claim to a ten-mile national air- Turks cite the threat of forced enosis (union with vi Greece) of the island as justification for the and both sides would see political gains were troops’ presence. Yet Greeks maintain that the era their differences resolved. has long since passed when Greek Cypriots - sought enosis, since few Greeks on the island The main stumbling block may be not the dis- would give up their sovereignty to become part of putes themselves, but the way they are used by Greece. politicians in both countries for domestic political gain. For any solution to be possible, political - Three fundamental issues must be overcome be- leaders in both Turkey and Greece must be will- fore progress can be made on the Cyprus issue: ing to promote and defend a settlement to citi- The Turkish government must rescind its recog- zenries long accustomed to hostile and nition of the Turkish Republic of Northern confrontational rhetoric. Cyprus; the Greeks must accept that they can never control the entire island; and Greece must refrain from using the international community CYPRUS IN THE POST–COLD WAR ERA: and other actors, particularly the European MOVING TOWARD A SETTLEMENT? Union (EU), as weapons against the Turks. - A series of incidents that claimed five lives during - The United Nations is the only institution that the summer and fall of 1996 in Cyprus have high- can aid in a Cyprus solution. However, it must be lighted the underlying tensions as well as the po- given the authority by the permanent members of tential for greater violence on the island. The end the Security Council to facilitate and implement a of the Cold War has brought about changes that negotiated settlement between the two communi- have had a substantial impact on Cyprus’s exter- ties. For the past twenty years, the United Nations nal environment, yet much remains the same on has not had the authority to carry out a serious the island. peacekeeping operation on Cyprus. - In spite of the scaling down of the UN Force in - Bilateral negotiations with third-party mediation Cyprus, there has been a recent flurry of diplo- would be a primary path to reconciliation on matic activity designed to achieve a political most issues that separate Greece and Turkey. Any breakthrough on the island. President Clinton proposal should be accompanied by a joint has stated that the United States will make a spe- Greek-Turkish agreement, possibly guaranteed cial effort to bring about a Cyprus settlement; the by NATO, to proscribe the threat or use of force. A EU has also been active in this regard. In part, formula for a Cyprus settlement involves the cre- this level of engagement can be explained by the ation of a federal, bicommunal, bizonal entity in desire of the United States and the EU, as well as accordance with agreements reached between the United Nations, to claim success in resolving leaders of the two Cypriot communities in the a notable case of protracted ethnic conflict. late 1970s. The United States must play a princi- - pal role in helping to bring about any settlement, One of the perennial impediments third parties because the Turks view few other players as im- typically encounter in their attempts to mediate partial, particularly the European Union. the conflict has been securing the simultaneous backing of Greece and Turkey to find a Cyprus - Any and all Track Two diplomacy efforts should breakthrough. Indeed, profound changes in the be encouraged. The multilateral approach of the post–Cold War security environment of these tra- Middle East peace process may contain some use- ditional adversaries have brought new possibili- ful lessons; numerous desirable regional plans ties for disagreement and mutual suspicion—the and projects (in media, tourism, business) were geographic bounds of Greek-Turkish rivalry are agreed on that could be implemented only after a expanding. peace agreement was signed. Though there is no - easy solution to the problem separating Greece Even without the Balkans and Cyprus complicat- and Turkey, their disputes are not irremediable, ing their relations, Greece and Turkey have had— and continue to have—much to argue about. The vii January 1996 crisis over an Aegean islet was a re- eastern Mediterranean and the Balkans; the area’s minder of how incendiary Greek-Turkish rela- future is more likely to remain within the Tolera- tions can be in certain areas. To be sure, the ble range. However, the risk of an Undesirable demarcation of the Aegean Sea under the UN scenario is still present, given that some negative Convention on the Law of the Sea probably economic trends (for example, unemployment, serves as the most contentious issue-area be- inflation, low productivity), especially in the post- tween the two littoral states, involving the conti- communist Balkans and in Turkey, can produce nental shelf, the territorial sea, and the sovereign instability if left unattended. airspace above. - With respect to Greek-Turkish relations, the - Thus far, Greek and Turkish Cypriot negotiators global and regional settings present a compli- have agreed that a new settlement should provide cated situation that nonetheless permits tension for a bicommunal, bizonal federation in a re- reduction and even gradual reconciliation. united Cyprus and should also affirm the politi- Should the Undesirable or Catastrophic scenario cal equality of the two communities. The Greek materialize, it would produce a highly competi- Cypriot definition of a federal Cyprus would ex- tive atmosphere and most likely result in more tend the authority of the central government over hardened and nationalistic policies. There would the entire island. The Turkish Cypriot plan is be significantly less maneuvering room for the comparable to the French Canadian nationalist governments of Greece and Turkey to pursue idea of “sovereignty association” that has enjoyed policies aimed at fostering reconciliation. considerable support in Quebec. - The ingredients of a lasting settlement can be - Even after years of failed third-party attempts to based only on the assumption that Turkey, in ad- find a settlement, the international community dition to Greece, solidifies its West European ori- has not given up on Cyprus.

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