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Kallang Basin, Singapore Microbial Risk Assessment for Recreational Use of the Kallang Basin, Singapore By Allison Park B.S. Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2014 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Submitted to the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements of the Degree of Master of Engineering in Civil and Environmental Engineering at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - - INIE OF TECHNOLOGY June 2014 JUN 13 2014 C 2014 Massachusetts Institute of Technology All rights reserved L.RALIBRA RIE S Signature redacted Signature of Author: Allison Park Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering May 9 , 2014 Signature redacted Certified by: Peter Shanahan Senior Lecturer of Civil and Environmental Engineering (7Thesis/ Adisor Accepted by: Signature redacted Heidi Nepf Chair, Departmental Committee for Graduate Students Microbial Risk Assessment for Recreational Use of the Kallang Basin, Singapore By Allison Park Submitted to the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering on May 9th 2014 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements of the Degree of Master of Engineering in Civil and Environmental Engineering Abstract The water quality in the Kallang Basin, Singapore, was analyzed in order to determine how safe the waters are for recreational users, specifically focusing on dragon-boat racers. The Public Utilities Board of Singapore has been managing reservoirs under the "Active, Beautiful, and Clean Waters Programme" in order to help the public recognize the value of their scarce water sources. Therefore, microbial risk assessments were conducted on locations along the Kallang Basin to analyze any diurnal or spatial differences in probabilities of illness, and establish guideline geometric mean concentrations. Samples were collected at four different locations along the Kallang Basin every four hours during a 48-hour period. Samples were then analyzed for Enterococci and E. coli using most- probable-number methods. Adenovirus was analyzed by Liu (2014) using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Based on the Wiedenmann et al. (2006) statistics-based risk model, no-observed-adverse-risk levels or guideline geometric-mean levels were established at 128 colony forming units (CFU) / 100 mL for Enterococci and 697 CFU/ 100 mL for E. coli. Based on these guideline geometric-mean concentrations, all of the stations exceeded the tolerable illness level for indicator bacteria at certain times, with peak concentrations at 7:00 A.M. and 11:00 A.M. However, for adenovirus, the probabilities of illness did not exceed the tolerable level based on appropriate dragon-boat racer ingestion rates. Statistical analysis showed that a high correlation existed between adenovirus concentrations and E. coli concentrations. Future studies should analyze specific locations along the Kallang Basin that contribute to high concentrations of indicator bacteria and viruses. Thesis Supervisor: Peter Shanahan Title: Senior Lecturer of Civil and Environmental Engineering Acknowledgements First, I would like to thank my thesis advisor, Dr. Peter Shanahan, for his support and exceptional amount of technical advice. Without him, this thesis would not be in the shape it is today. Next, I would like to thank my MIT group members who traveled to Singapore with me for their enthusiasm, support, and passion throughout this process: Justin Angeles, Riana Kernan, and Tina Liu. Additionally, I would like to thank the extremely helpful and experienced members of the National University of Singapore (NUS) for laboratory and field-work assistance. I would especially like to thank Professor Karina Gin and Ginger Vergara for allowing us to work with them. Finally, I would like to thank my family and friends for their love and support throughout. They provided me with optimism, and taught me the value of hard work and discipline. Table of Contents Table of Tables .................................................................................................................. 9 Table of Figures............................................................................................................... 10 1. Introduction................................................................................................................. 11 1.1 Singapore's W ater Sources............................................................................................ 11 1.1.1 Imported W ater............................................................................................................. 11 1.1.2 Desalination.................................................................................................................. 12 1.1.3 N EW ater....................................................................................................................... 12 1.1.4 Local Catchment W ater............................................................................................ 12 1.2 ABC Program m e ............................................................................................................... 13 1.3 K allang River Basin Overview ..................................................................................... 14 1.4 Current Study .................................................................................................................... 16 2. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Fecal Indicator Microbes for Recreational Use 18 2.1 Fecal Indicators and Viruses ......................................................................................... 18 2.1.1 Coliphage and Adenovirus ....................................................................................... 19 2.1.2 Epidem iological Studies............................................................................................ 20 2.2 Recreational Risk Assessm ent..................................................................................... 21 2.2.1 Site Characterization ................................................................................................ 21 2.2.2 Risk Quantification................................................................................................... 22 2.2.3 Risk M anagement and Communication .................................................................. 22 2.3 US Standards History................................................................................................... 23 2.3.1 W orld Health Organization and Singaporean Standards .......................................... 24 3. Models Assessing Risk Associated with Microbes ............................................... 26 3.1 No-O bserved-Adverse-Effect Levels (NOAELs) ....................................................... 26 3.2 van Heerden et al. (2005) Exponential Dose-Response Risk Model........................... 26 3.2.1 Poisson-Distributed Dose-Response M odel .............................................................. 27 3.3 Dufour (1984) Risk M odel ............................................................................................ 30 3.4 Fleisher (1991) Risk Equations...................................................................................... 31 3.5 W iedenm ann (2007) Risk M odel................................................................................... 31 3.6 Dufour vs. W iedenm ann M odel ................................................................................... 35 3.7 Single-Sam ple M axim um Allowable Densities................................................................ 35 4. W ater Sam pling A nalyses and O verview ............................................................. 37 4.1 Field Sam ple Collection ................................................................................................ 37 4.2 Laboratory Analysis..................................................................................................... 37 4.2.1 Enterococci and E. coli Lab Analysis........................................................................ 37 4.2.2 Indicator Bacteria NOAEL and Probability of Illness Derivation............................. 38 4.2.3 Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) Preparation for Adenovirus Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 3 9 4.3 W ater Ingestion Calculation.......................................................................................... 40 5. R esults .......................................................................................................................... 42 7 5.1 Indicator Bacteria Results ............................................................................................ 42 5.2 E. coli Results..................................................................................................................... 44 5.2.1 E. coli Results for Station 2....................................................................................... 44 5.2.2 . coli Results for Station 3 ....................................................................................... 45 5.2.3 E. coli Results for Station 4....................................................................................... 47 5.2.4 E. coli Results for Station 5 ....................................................................................... 48 5.2.5 Summary of E. coli Results ....................................................................................... 50 5.3 Enterococci Results ......................................................................................................
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