Malaysia Bumi Armada
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PP16832/01/2013 (031128) Malaysia Initiating Coverage 6 March 2012 Buy (new) Bumi Armada The Armada strikes back Share price: RM4.13 Target price: RM4.88 Initiating coverage with a Buy and RM4.88 target price. Bumi Armada (BA) offers a niche exposure to the Floating Production, Wong Chew Hann, CA Storage and Offloading (FPSO) market. As one of the fastest growing [email protected] FPSO operators in the world, it has set its sights on being the Top 4 (603) 2297 8688 player in terms of FPSO fleet size by 2013. It is also poised to gain traction in Malaysia’s O&G sector, as it leverages on PETRONAS’ Chong Ooi Ming capex programme. BA, which is steadfastly building up franchise [email protected] (603) 2297 8676 values, is a steady growth stock with a 3-year net profit CAGR of 25%. Bigger, bolder, better. BA is today a giant compared to its previous self. The restructured entity is now a powerhouse with a global presence, covering 4 core operations – FPSO, Offshore Supply Vessel (OSV), Transportation & Installation (T&I) and Offshore Field Services Stock Information (OFS). It commands an armada of 53 vessels: 5 FPSOs, 46 OSVs, 1 Description: Integrated Oilfield services provider with 4 pipelay barge and SURF vessel operating across the the world. core operations: FPSOs, OSVs, T&I vessels and offshore field services. In an entrenched position to ride global E&P programmes. We see Ticker: BAB MK innumerable opportunities for BA to capitalize on the: (i) 125 potential Shares Issued (m): 2,928.5 FPSO projects worldwide, (ii) requirement for new, highly technical Market Cap (RM m): 12,094.5 3-mth Avg Daily Volume (m): 3.73 OSVs to support global deepwater programmes, (iii) services for the KLCI: 1,589.22 subsea umbilicals, risers and flowlines (SURF), inspection, repair and Free float (%): 29.6 maintenance (IRM) markets, and (iv) increasing number of offshore Major Shareholders: % development projects in Malaysia (marginal field and Enhanced Oil Objektif Bersatu Sdn Bhd 42.4 Recovery (EOR) development) and the Caspian region. Ombak Damai Sdn Bhd 11.6 Wijaya Sinar Sdn Bhd 7.3 Set to embark on an aggressive asset expansion plan. We see BA Karisma Mesra Sdn Bhd 5.4 prospecting for new assets for growth. BA will likely double its FPSO Key Indicator s assets, triple its SURF vessels and add 4 new OSV vessels to its fleet Net cash (RM m): (1,760.6) by 2015. This is possible as it has the balance sheet to support the NTA/shr (RM): 1.20 heavy capex (estimated RM6.4b) for its expansion programme while Net gearing (x): 0.5 keeping its net gearing below the 1.5x threshold. Histor ical Chart Strong earnings visibility 3 years out. We project a 3-year net profit CAGR of 25%. All divisions will contribute to growth, fueled by new 4.5 BAB MK Equity vessels (FPSO, OSV, pipelay barges) progressively coming onstream 4.2 and higher utilization (ex-dayrate revision) for the existing vessels. Source: Maybank IB 3.9 Bumi Armada – Summary Earnings Table FYE Dec(RM m) FY10A FY11A FY12F FY13F FY14F 3.6 Revenue 1,241. 4 1,543. 9 1,800. 7 2,220. 6 2,504. 3 EBITDA 715.6 845.1 1,048. 7 1,272. 6 1,442. 0 3.3 Recurring Net Profit 350.8 387.3 532.2 627.5 706.9 Recurring Basic EP S (Sen) 12. 0 13. 2 18. 2 21. 4 24. 1 3.0 EPS growth (%) 26. 4 10. 4 37. 4 17. 9 12. 6 Jul -11 Sep-1 1 No v-11 Ja n-12 DPS (Sen) 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 PER 34. 5 31. 2 22.7 19. 3 17. 1 Performance: EV/E BITDA (x) 21. 3 16. 4 13.9 11. 8 10. 4 52-week High/Low RM4.33/RM3.03 Div Yiel d (%) 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/BV( x) 13. 8 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.3 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD Net Gearing (%) 359.0 49. 9 61.6 63. 0 54. 4 Absolute (%) 4.0 11.3 na na 0.7 ROE (%) 40. 1 10. 9 13.3 13. 5 13. 2 ROA (%) 10. 8 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 R e la t ive (% ) 0.8 3.8 na na (3.1) Consensus Net Profit (RM m) - - 585.0 706.5 794.4 Ki m Eng Hong Kong i s a subsi di ar y of Ml a ayan Banki ng Ber had 6 March 2012 Page 1 of 60 Bumi Armada Table of contents Page Key investment merits 3 Introduction: Bigger, bolder, better 4 Snapshot of Bumi Armada’s operations • Floating Production, Storage & Offloading (FPSO) 7 • Offshore Supply Vessel (OSV) 12 • Transport & Installation (T&I) 16 • Offshore Field Services (OFS) 16 • Revenue and EBIT breakdown 17 Floating, Production, Storage & Offloading (FPSO) • Fundamentals 20 • Opportunities 26 Offshore Supply Vessel (OSV) • Fundamentals 29 • Opportunities 38 Transport & Installation (T&I) • Fundamentals 39 • Opportunities 40 Offshore Field Services (OFS) • Fundamentals 42 • Opportunities 45 FInancials • Financial projections 48 Valuation 51 Peers’ v aluations – FPSO operators 52 Peers’ v aluations – OSV operators 52 Risks 53 Financial statements 55 Appendix : Captains & Commanders of the Armada 57 6 March 2012 Page 2 of 60 Bumi Armada Key investment merits Introduction. The Bumi Armada of today is a transformed entity. The Group has been restructured and now has four businesses: (i) FPSO, (ii) OSV, (iii) T&I and (iv) OFS, with a global presence in each segment. The company is driven by a dedicated, experienced and professional management team, compri si ng talent from mul ti pl e nati onal ities. Solid business model. We like the FPSO space. It provides steady visibility (contracts and earnings) with reasonable IRRs. Competition is limited given the high investment and technical hurdle requirements. Bumi Armada’s OSV operation, relatively new, modern and modulated to the high-end vessel segment is a positive, for it provides respectable utilisation and day rates. Bumi Armada’s stint in the T&I and OFS divisions has been brief so far but has delivered the desired results. Well-positioned to push for new contracts, locally and globally. Prospects are bright for Bumi Armada to ride on the global O&G capex upcycle, as it capitalises on the growing demand for new FPSO and OSV charters, as well as growing requirements for brownfield developments. In the domestic (i.e. Malaysia) space, the prospect of leveraging on PETRONAS’ deepwater, marginal field and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) field projects is high. It has both the operational foresight and financial structure to leverage and support its expansion programmes. Powering up - w here growth and aspirations meet. We opine that Bumi Armada has the balance sheet to fund 3 new SURF vessels, 5 FPSOs and 8 OSVs over the next three years without straining its cashflow and gearing levels. This is a sensible aspiration, which would propel Bumi Armada to become the fourth largest FPSO operator globally with a competitive edge to boot. A tow ering growth stock with rew arding returns. With a 3-year net profit CAGR forecast of 25%, its relentless pursuit of excellence will secure Bumi Armada the status of fastest-growing operator among its global peers. However, given prospects for high growth, we believe that i t is unl i kel y that Bumi Armada will reward sharehol ders wi th meaningful di vi dends i n the foreseeabl e future. High conviction: valuations with compelling growth prospects. We value Bumi Armada at RM4.88, using the sum-of-part (SOP) valuation methodology. At our target, Bumi Armada would have a market capitalisation of RM14.3b, a valuation that would see it become the largest FPSO player worldwide by market value (ahead of SBM’s RM10.3b), while outpacing its contemporaries in growth and profit margins. Ki m Eng Hong Kong i s a subsi di ar y of Ml a ayan Banki ng Ber had 6 March 2012 Page 3 of 60 Bumi Armada Bigger, bolder, better Bumi Armada – remembering the old days. The Bumi Armada of yesterday was just a shadow of its present incarnation. The previous entity, listed on 25 June 1997 and delisted six years later on 18 April 2003 (with a market capitalization of RM441m), was primarily engaged in just two main business activities: (i) offshore support vessel (OSV) operations, and (ii) offshore construction, installation & maintenance services. Operations then were predominantly domestic-centric, supported by 25 vessels, 2 tanker support vessels and a Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) system. The present day – rejuvenated and ready to ride the waves. T he group has since been restructured and the Bumi Armada of today is a much larger and more di versi fied entity wi th a gl obal reach. True to its name, it really has burgeoned into an armada, with a fleet of 5 FPSOs (including two undergoing conversion), 46 OSVs, one pipe-laying barge and another SURF vessel, making it the jointly fifth-largest FPSO operator in the world and the third-largest OSV operator in Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, its business has grown to encompass four segments: (i) FPSO, (ii) OSV, (iii) Transport & Installation (T&I) and (iv) Offshore Field Services (OFS) with two support units: Fleet Management Services (FMS), and Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC). Usaha Tegas Group (UT) is the largest shareholder. UT, a privately- owned holding company, presently holds a 42.4% stake, held through Objektif Bersatu Sdn Bhd (OBSB).