The Knesset Research and Information Centre, Budget Control Department Description and Analysis of Taxation on Cigarettes and Rolling Tobacco, Consumption Patterns, and State Revenue The Knesset Research and Information Centre, March 19, 2017 Writing: Victor Fatal, Economist Kiryat Ben-Gurion, Jerusalem, 91950 Approval: Ami Zadik, Director of the Budget Control Department P h o n e : 0 2 - 6 4 0 8 2 4 0 / 1 Table of contents SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Restrictions designed to reduce the use of tobacco products ............................................... 2 1.1. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) ................................................... 2 1.2. Environmental taxation policy .............................................................................................. 3 1.3. Recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO) regarding taxation policies 3 2. Smoking rates in Israel and the OECD countries ................................................................. 5 2.1. Smoking rates in the population ............................................................................................ 5 2.2. Smoking among children and youths .................................................................................... 7 2.3. Economic evaluation of the negative externalities caused by smoking ................................ 7 3. Taxation and revenue ............................................................................................................... 9 3.1. Imports and domestic production .......................................................................................... 9 3.2 Taxation on cigarettes and rolling tobacco........................................................................... 10 3.3. Taxation on cigarettes and rolling tobacco by selected brands ........................................... 11 3.4. Estimated total taxation on cigarettes and rolling tobacco .................................................. 12 3.5. Taxation comparisons with the European Union countries................................................. 14 4. Analysis of changes in the tax rate on consumption patterns, the consumer price, and state revenue ............................................................................................................................................15 4.1. Changes in consumption patterns: the switch from cigarette consumption to rolling tobacco........................................................................................................................................ 15 4.2. The estimated effect of raising the Specific tax on rolling tobacco, on the consumer price ............................................................................................................................................ 16 4.3. The estimated effect of raising the Specific tax on rolling tobacco, on decreasing consumption, and on state revenue............................................................................................. 19 4.4. Estimated change in the taxation system for cigarettes, to a Specific tax only ................... 23 4.5. Estimated revenue resulting from a change in the tax system for cigarettes, to a Specific tax only ....................................................................................................................................... 24 5. The standpoints of the distribution companies ...........................................................................25 5.1. Dubek .................................................................................................................................. 25 5.2. Globrands ............................................................................................................................ 26 5.3. Philip Morris........................................................................................................................ 27 SUMMARY This document was prepared at the request of MK Yehuda Glick. It describes and analyses the effects of the disparity in the taxation on cigarettes and on hand rolling tobacco (henceforth: rolling tobacco) in Israel, on consumption patterns. The document presents data regarding the rates of smokers in Israel and in the OECD countries; an assessment of the impact of the taxation component on the price of cigarettes and rolling tobacco; an assessment of the effect of the difference in taxation on cigarettes versus rolling tobacco on consumption patterns, and on state revenue; an assessment of the impact of changing the taxation method on cigarettes on state revenue, and the standpoints of the distribution companies. The document does not deal with taxation of new products, such as electronic cigarettes. Smoking and the derivative costs: The rate of smokers aged 18 and above in Israel in 2016 was around 22.5%, compared to a rate of around 19.7% in 2015 (aged 21 and above). The Ministry of Health estimates the negative external costs caused by smoking to be NIS 12.7 billion per annum. The left chart1 shows that in the years 2009- 16 the price index of cigarettes and tobacco (blue line) rose by around 86.8%. The consumption of cigarette packs fell from around 425 million in 2010 to around 283 million in 2015, and increased again to around 310 million packs in 2016. Imports and production: There are three major cigarettes and rolling tobacco distributors in Israel: Globrands, Philip Morris and Dubek. The quantity of cigarette imports and domestic production in 2016 was around 313 million packs, of which around 280 million were imported and around 33 million domestically produced. In the years 2012-16 the value of imported tobacco increased from around 2.3 million to around 30.2 million USD - an increase of 1,236.5%, compared to an increase of around 11.5% in the value of cigarette imports during the same period. Taxation and revenue: In 2016 the total purchase tax for a pack of 20 cigarettes was around NIS 19.3 on average, which is around 65.5% of the consumer price of a pack, while the total purchase tax and VAT constitute around 80% of the price of a pack. In 2016, the average purchase tax on rolling tobacco was around NIS 18.1 for a 40g pouch of rolling tobacco, which is equivalent to roughly 57 hand rolled cigarettes weighing 0.7g each. The estimate is that the average purchase tax constitutes around 42.8% of the consumer price for tobacco, while the total of purchase tax and VAT constitute around 57.3% of the price of tobacco. Thus, there is a significant taxation disparity between rolling 1 This chart appears as chart 7 and discussed in detail in section 4.3. Below. Page 1 of 29 The Knesset Research and Information Center tobacco and cigarettes, which encourages smokers to switch to tobacco, and caused a cumulative loss of revenue of around NIS 1.5 billion in the years 2012-2016. State revenue from purchase tax in 2016 was around NIS 6 billion for cigarettes and around NIS 310 million for rolling tobacco - a total revenue of around NIS 6.3 billion. The estimated effect of equalizing the purchase tax on rolling tobacco: A comparison based on the weight of tobacco consumed by the consumer of cigarettes and of rolling tobacco, suggests that the tax should be raised to around NIS 1,375 per kilo, which is about 3 times the current Specific purchase tax collected – around NIS 453 per kilo. The significance of such a rise will be to roughly double the consumer price of rolling tobacco. Should the suggested change in the purchase tax for rolling tobacco occur, and under the assumption that consumption will indeed fall, the expected increase in revenue to the state will be around NIS 243 million per annum, or around NIS 632 million per annum without a decrease in consumption. The estimated effect of changing the taxation method on cigarettes to a Specific tax: A Specific tax leads to the convergence of cigarette prices. Relatively low priced brands will approach the price of higher priced brands. Dubek brands are relatively low priced, and therefore, were a Specific tax system implemented exclusively, the increase in consumer prices would apply in particular to the Dubek brands. A changeover to an exclusive Specific tax method may increase state revenue from cigarettes, should the purchase tax be above NIS 19.3 (the current weighted sum collected for a single pack), and vice versa. Thus, for example, a Specific tax of NIS 22 per cigarette pack, is expected to add around NIS 1 billion per annum (including the collection of the accompanying VAT) to the state treasury, from which the expected reduction in cigarette consumption should be deducted. 1. Restrictions designed to reduce the use of tobacco products 1.1. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC)2 The FCTC entered into force in February 2005, and has been signed by 168 states. The Convention provides an international framework for tobacco control, and its aspiration is to reduce the prevalence of tobacco use by various means, including taxation, advertising and promotion restrictions (ultimately prohibiting the advertisement of tobacco products altogether), and restrictions on selling methods. The goal of this Convention is to significantly reduce the use of tobacco products, and thus to protect the public from the negative health, social, environmental and economic consequences of tobacco consumption, and exposure to it. The Convention deals both with means