ASSESSING THE NEW ABE ADMINISTRATION IN

CENTER ON JAPANESE ECONOMY AND BUSINESS SEPTEMBER 26, 2006

Former Prime Minister left a lasting impression as he left office earlier this year. He shook up the status quo in the political world by shifting the

power from the Liberal Democratic Party headquarters to the prime minister’s office, decentralized the LDP power base, and forced out any potential threat to his throne. These moves were perhaps needed, but also left the new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, on a path that has never been taken before.

Everyone agrees that Prime Minister Abe has some large shoes to fill. Does he have the same charisma that Koizumi displayed to continue with reforms, political, economic, or otherwise? Does his choice of cabinet members show what kind of leader he will be? With both the domestic and international media touting him as a nationalist, how will he fare in foreign diplomacy? The answers are still quite vague and more will be known next year. That said, Gerald L. Curtis, Burgess Professor of Political Science, Columbia University, shared his insight on Prime Minister Abe and his administration to a packed audience on September 26. Professor Curtis was joined by the moderator, Hugh Patrick, Director of the Center on Japanese Economy and Business and R.D. Calkins Professor of International Business Emeritus, Columbia Business School.

This reports the highlights of Professor Curtis’ speech and the following discussion with audience members. The program was presented in partnership by the

Weatherhead East Asian Institute and the Center on Japanese Economy and Business, which is celebrating its 20th anniversary. the past year and engaged in a TV zadankai (roundtable dis- cussion) with him, as well as having a number of private meetings. Prime Minister Abe was probably much too busy this last week to meet with Gerry, but it was probably only HUGH PATRICK GERALD L. CURTIS because Gerry was not going Director, Center on Japanese Burgess Professor of Political I think Gerry has to be in the Cabinet. I know Economy and Business; Science, Columbia University personally known R.D. Calkins Professor of we all look forward to learning hank you. I am delighted just about every International Business Emeritus, from Gerry about what Prime Columbia Business School Minister Abe’s policies will be, T to see so many people Japanese prime how they will be carried out, turn out today, a lot of old t is my honor and pleasure minister for the what will be the difficult chal- friends from outside Columbia, to introduce Professor Gerald last 30 years. I a lot of my students, and others. lenges he faces, and to learn Curtis, Burgess Professor of —Hugh Patrick more about his cabinet mem- This is a good opportunity for Political Science at Columbia bers and senior advisors. us to talk about the significance University. As you know, Gerry This is a special event of the emergence of Japan’s is a distinguished scholar of co-sponsored by the new prime minister. He is the Japanese politics and in recent Weatherhead East Asian first prime minister to be born years has spent every spring Institute in a series of events after the Second World War, semester in , meeting that the Center on Japanese the youngest prime minister with political and business Economy and Business is in the past 65 years, and the leaders, engaging in research, holding to celebrate its 20th most hawkish prime minister and incidentally being inter- anniversary. I want to deny in some time. He follows very viewed by the media and the rumor that Prime Minister much in the tradition of his on TV a lot. He just returned Junichiro Koizumi decided not grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, yesterday from a week in to stay on for an extra year, but who was prime minister in the Japan. It seems that every time to leave at this time in order late 1950s. a new prime minister is being that Gerry could give this talk. I want to look briefly at the elected, Gerry somehow Anyway, Gerry, the podium is new Cabinet, the key issues arranges to go to Japan for a yours. that Shinzo Abe is going to week and when he comes back face, and the challenges that he has a lot to say about what he has to meet if he is going to the new prime minister will be be successful as prime minister. doing, his policies and so forth. First, a word about this election. As you know, Shinzo Abe was Abe won an overwhelming elected as president of the victory with 66 percent of the Liberal Democratic Party on vote, that is two thirds of all the September 20, and as prime Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) minister on September 26. members of the parliament and I think Gerry has personally those of the party rank and file known just about every who voted. There were two Japanese prime minister for the other candidates in the race last 30 years. He has met with and no one expected, including Shinzo Abe several times over the candidates themselves, that

2 Assessing the New Abe Administration in Japan anybody else might win. One to build a power base. Prime chief of staff. So Abe is of the other candidates, Foreign Minister Koizumi appointed untested. That does not mean Minister Taro Aso, did somewhat no faction head to his Cabinet. he might not turn out to be a better than had been expected, He went further down in the terrific prime minister, but at especially among the rank and factional hierarchy or chose this point the only thing you file. He is ideologically quite people who had no factional can say about Abe with confi- close to Abe and took pretty affiliation. Those who had dence is that he is a question much the same policy positions. power in the party when mark. There is uncertainty Abe has kept him on as foreign Koizumi became prime minister about what he is going to do minister, the only person that could do nothing but watch as on domestic policy, on has been retained in the cabinet their power kind of wilted on relations and on foreign policy position that he held under the vine. Five and a half years more generally, and on how Koizumi. The other candidate, later, the only real candidate he is going to organize his Finance Minister Sadakazu was Koizumi’s candidate. administration. Tanigaki, came in third. Tanigaki Koizumi’s candidate was Abe. Prime Minister Abe has to took a different position from So he is popular almost, in a do three things in particular Abe and Aso on key issues. He way, by default. to be successful. The first thing favors raising the consumption You do not find many he has to do is to get people tax, ending prime ministerial politicians in the LDP who are not to compare him to Prime visits to the excited about Abe, who say, Minister Koizumi. Abe has to and putting greater effort into “This guy is just terrific, he is try to avoid having the media Japan’s Asia diplomacy. There really great.” What they do say remind the public that he does was somewhat more support is that he was the best option. not measure up to Koizumi and for Tanigaki’s policy prescrip- There is a wait-and-see attitude that he does not have the flare. tions than for Tanigaki himself. both within the LDP and the No one measures up to Koizumi He never really managed to public as a whole. Nearly in terms of style. Abe cannot grab the public’s attention. everyone, in the end, jumped croon “Love Me Tender” and Abe’s popularity needs to on the Abe bandwagon. And try to be cool like Koizumi. be distinguished from his pre- if he falters, they will jump on He cannot compete on style. decessor’s. Prime Minister Abe. So, he has to move fairly He has to compete on substance. Nearly everyone, Koizumi came into office riding quickly to establish his credibil- He has to get the public and a wave of real enthusiasm on ity as a leader. He is the first the media to focus their atten- in the end, jumped the part of the public. That LDP politician who has become tion on the kind of policies he on the Abe enthusiasm, as you know, con- prime minister without having is trying to push. The problem bandwagon. tinued to grow until he had held a cabinet position except is that he has no clear policy And if he falters, nearly a 90 percent approval for the one he held under agenda. This was partly the they will jump rating in the public opinion Koizumi as the chief cabinet consequence of there being no on Abe. polls a few months after being secretary. The chief cabinet real contest in the party presi- elected. Abe’s popularity is secretary is a crucially impor- dential election. Abe’s victory —Gerald Curtis more tentative. He is popular tant position, but it does not was a foregone conclusion because nobody else is popular. involve executive power. It and he was careful not to say For five and a half years, Prime does not involve running a line anything that might give his Minister Koizumi basically froze ministry. The chief cabinet sec- opponents an unexpected out the party’s bosses from retary is the government’s chief opening. So he never focused positions of power to prevent spokesman and the prime min- in the campaign on policies. them from using a position in ister’s right-hand man, a kind of And we do not know what the Cabinet or party leadership equivalent to the White House concrete policies Abe is going

September 26, 2006 3 to push. He has no legislation followed by majority support in But there is remarkably little of his own to put forward to a public referendum. But there policy content to the second this Diet session. All the bills are no procedures in place as chance slogan. And by empha- coming up are carryovers from to how that referendum is to be sizing this issue, Abe himself Prime Minister Koizumi. So he carried out. is reinforcing what seems to has to scramble, I think pretty I had the opportunity to talk me to be an exaggerated view Right now, quickly, to come up with some with Abe about a month before in Japan of how serious the what we know specific policies. he became prime minister. inequality issue is. For those Right now, what we know In responding to my question of us who work at Columbia about Abe is pretty about Abe is pretty much about what he hoped to University and look out from much dependent dependent on general state- accomplish as prime minister, our office windows at Harlem, on general ments he has made that reflect he talked quite a bit about the realities of inequality stare statements he has a nationalist and socially con- social issues, especially educa- up at us every day and are far made that reflect servative point of view. He tion. He is concerned about more serious than anything the a nationalist says he wants to revise the the deterioration of the quality Japanese know or probably Constitution, not just amend of public school compulsory even imagine. Abe’s emphasis and socially parts of it. He wants to revise education and favors major on second chance leads conservative the whole Constitution so that education reform. But for the inevitably to a conclusion that point of view. Japan finally has a constitution time being his major emphasis if the government is going to —Gerald Curtis written by the Japanese rather is on getting through a revision do something about it, it will than by the Americans who of what is called the Fundamental in one way or another have to occupied Japan after the Second Law on Education to emphasize take money from people who World War. But what specifically the importance of patriotism and have it and transfer it to people does he want to change, and love of country. That responds who do not. Or it will take how does he want to change it? to an ideological concern, but it measures to force companies He has not said. Even if he lasts does not deal with the concrete to treat their workers in accord in office a relatively long time, problems of both pre-college with government directives it is highly unlikely that the and university level education. rather than market forces. Japanese Constitution will be Prime Minister Abe also has There is considerable support revised while Abe is Prime made the slogan sai-challenge, in the LDP, for example, to force Minister of Japan. Building a or “second chance” a major companies to give permanent consensus on revision is going theme. Japan is a rather unfor- employee status to contract to take several years. If Abe giving society toward people workers who have been on the stays in office for as long as who do not get onto a conven- job for three or six months. So Koizumi did, he may be able to tional career track early in life. Abe is in a position where he is move the constitutional revision Providing greater second saying that he wants to cut gov- process forward but not get it chance opportunities is a very ernment spending and continue changed on his watch. What he important issue for Japanese reform, but where his rhetoric will probably be able to do is society. Because of the long gives support to those who get a bill that sets the procedures recession, there are many want to slow down the reform for the public referendum on freeters, people who do part- process and reassert greater constitutional revision to pass time work or are hired as government control over the the Diet, possibly in this fall’s contract workers rather than as economy. This is exacerbated session. To revise the Constitution, regular workers. Now they are by the view that the inequality there needs to be an affirmative in their mid or late twenties problem is the consequence vote of two thirds of all mem- and unable to find attractive of Koizumi’s market oriented bers in both Houses of the Diet, employment opportunities. reforms, when in reality it is

4 Assessing the New Abe Administration in Japan the consequence of fifteen Minister Koizumi responded to what they see. If he seems years of recession. the terrorist attack on September uncertain about his program, During the election cam- 11 by getting the Diet to many people will come to the paign, Abe studiously avoided authorize Japanese logistical conclusion that it was prema- taking a position on the issue support to provide supplies ture for Abe to become prime that Tanigaki, the finance destined for American troops minister. Once that view becomes minister, pushed the hardest, fighting in Afghanistan, sent widespread, it is going to be namely, whether or not to raise troops to Iraq and took other very difficult for Abe to turn it the consumption tax. I am cer- steps to prove to the United around. And the danger is that tain that Abe believes that the States that Japan is a trustworthy he will try to turn it around by consumption tax needs to be ally in the post–September 11 playing a sort of nationalist card. raised but that it would be world. But significant constraints Abe’s Cabinet appointments political suicide to raise the still exist with regard to the in one sense may suggest that issue before next summer’s Japanese use of military power. he is fully aware of the need Upper House election and Abe wants to change Article 9 not to emulate Koizumi’s style. dangerous to raise the tax of the Constitution to remove This is not an exciting cabinet. before the economic recovery those constraints and, even There is no big surprise. is on firmer ground. I think before constitutional revision, Everybody was talking about Abe is concerned that the change the official interpretation who is going to be the surprise media will beat up on him if of Article 9 to allow collective Cabinet appointment, whom he indicates support for a defense. But there is consider- he is he going to bring in that consumption tax increase; he able resistance to doing that people would sit up and say, is going to put it off until after from within the LDP itself, from “Wow, that is cool.” The media the Upper House election next its coalition partner the , would have criticized him as a summer. But his instincts are to and from the public at large. populist if he appointed people move in that direction. Moreover, even if the interpre- because of a calculation that Another issue that he has tation were to be changed, it is they would be attractive to the put forward, already creating not at all clear what the specific public, and they criticized him some controversy within his policy consequences of that anyway for appointing a dull own Cabinet, is to change the change would be. What it would cabinet. He took a kind of official interpretation of Article do is scare Japan’s neighbors orthodox approach. There is 9 so Japan has the right to par- without necessarily changing only one person who is not a ticipate in so-called collective Japanese defense policy very Diet member in the Cabinet, Abe wants to defense. Collective defense much. the new head of the Economic change Article 9 means that Japan could form an So, to conclude what I have and Fiscal Policy Council, of the Constitution. alliance or make a commitment said up to now, Prime Minister Hiroko Ota. There is no razzle- to help another country in its Abe has to shift the focus from dazzle in this Cabinet. In one —Gerald Curtis defense. This goes beyond the style to substance and clarify sense, it is reassuring that he current interpretation of Article what his domestic agenda is. understands he cannot play 9, which states that Japanese He has to move relatively Koizumi’s game of trying to defense is limited to the quickly if he is going to avoid use the Cabinet as a way to defense of its own homeland. creating an image of drift and inject a lot of popular support The U.S.-Japan security treaty, indecisiveness. As I said in the for his administration just on in theory, only obligates the beginning, there is a wait-and- the nature of his appointments. United States to defend Japan; see attitude about Abe. But That is the good news. On the there is no reciprocal obligation people won’t wait too long other hand, the key domestic in theory. In practice, Prime before they think they know and economic portfolios are

September 26, 2006 5 held by people who do not understands and advises him LDP. Well known as a hard-liner, have particularly strong creden- on economic issues and manages Nakagawa was Ministry of tials for the jobs they now the Kantei, the prime minister’s Economy, Trade and Industry have. The Finance Minister, office, for him. And that is going (METI) minister under Koizumi. Kouji Omi, is a key leader in to be Shiozaki. Abe wants to create a National Abe’s own faction. He was the The other two key economic Security Council modeled on One thing we learn head of the Economic Planning portfolios are the minister in the United States and has about Abe from Agency in the mid 1990s and charge of the Financial Services appointed as his he is a former Trade Ministry Agency (FSA) and the economic national security advisor. But this Cabinet is that bureaucrat who I think most minister who manages the little planning has been done to almost everyone he people assume will pretty Council on Economic and actually set up such a council appointed is either much represent the views of Fiscal Policy. Heizo Takenaka and it is questionable when it his personal friend the Finance Ministry in the held these positions simultane- will materialize. or someone he felt Cabinet. One of his most ously when Koizumi was prime There is general agreement he owed a debt important appointments was minister and he was in effect in Tokyo that Abe is more the , Koizumi’s economic czar. That interested in focusing on for- because they came Yasuhisa Shiozaki. Shiozaki is is not the situation any longer. eign policy and on issues of out early to support well known among Americans, Ota is the economic minister. patriotism, nationalism, and him in the race. but in Japanese politics he has We were colleagues at the Japan standing tall in the world, —Gerald Curtis not been one of the key people Graduate Research Institute for than he is on domestic social in the party. Abe has now Policy Studies. She is well liked or economic issues. It is some- given him the opportunity to and is committed to continuing what ironic that the first prime become one of the party’s most Takenaka’s policies but she minister to be born in the important players. My sense is does not have a political base post-war period raises such that Abe wanted him as chief and she does not have the fundamental questions about cabinet secretary because, first backing of a prime minister the desirability of continuing and foremost, Abe completely determined to give economic policies and strategies Japan trusts him. One thing we learn reform priority as Koizumi did. has adopted during the post- about Abe from this Cabinet The head of the FSA is Yuji war period. Abe talks a lot is that almost everyone he Yamamoto, who does not have about restoring Japanese pride. appointed is either his personal much prior experience dealing He has written a book called friend or someone he felt he with financial issues. I can Utsukushii Kuni e, or “Toward owed a debt because they answer your questions about a Beautiful Country.” The impli- came out early to support him other individuals in the Cabinet cation of the title and the theme in the race. Shiozaki supported in the discussion period, but of the book is that Japan is not Abe from early on. He is a the point is that there is not a so beautiful now but it will be former Bank of Japan official, clear and strong message that if it takes greater pride in the his father was a well-known comes through about what nation, changes policies adopted finance minister, and so he is Abe wants to do on domestic, under the American occupation, familiar with economic issues. economic, and social issues. He and takes a more muscular Abe is not. Abe wants to center has a lot of social conservatives approach to foreign policy. policy making in the prime in the government and a hawkish He likes to use this simile of a minister’s office, something foreign policy team. It includes Japan in the post-war period that Prime Minister Hashimoto Aso, the foreign minister, who that has been operating in a started and that Koizumi stays on, and Shoichi Nakagawa, sumo ring in which others set emphasized. So he needs who is the head of the Policy the rules, but now wants to someone at his right hand who Affairs Research Council in the be one of the rule setters. The

6 Assessing the New Abe Administration in Japan world has changed a great deal move this relationship forward, Abe’s point was that if Japan since Prime Minister Yoshida and it will work until sometime gives in to Chinese pressure set the framework for Japan’s next year when Abe is going to on the Yasukuni issue that will foreign policy back in 1950. It have to decide what he is going only send a message to China is natural and unavoidable that to do about visiting the Yasukuni that China’s pressure tactics Japan reinvent its foreign policy Shrine. He has not said that work. Then it will be used on strategy. But what is character- he will visit Yasukuni. Prime East China Sea energy develop- istic of Prime Minister Abe is Minister Koizumi too, after ment issues, on Senkaku Island that there is a lot of abstract making a commitment in the issues, and so on. So Japan has talk that evokes an emotional 2001 party presidential election to draw a line in the sand and response on the part of the campaign to visit Yasukuni on convince the Chinese that for- Japanese public without much August 15, never again said eign pressure, gaiatsu, will not specificity as to what exactly whether he would or would work. The reason why there he would like to see Japan do. not visit the shrine. He said he was a lot of domestic support Nonetheless, I think we will would deal with the issue in an for Koizumi’s position on the see somewhat dramatic devel- “appropriate manner.” In fact, Yasukuni visit was precisely opments in Japanese foreign he visited the shrine every year because Koizumi was able policy over the next few months he was prime minister, and to frame the issue as one of that will surprise a lot of people. in his final finger-in-your-eye whether Japan should kowtow The newspapers are going to gesture to China, he went on to China. Support for the prime be writing about how unex- August 15 this year, the day minister’s visits to Yasukuni pected it is that Prime Minister that commemorates the end of increased in proportion to Abe is taking such strong initia- the war. Chinese protests of those visits. tives to improve relations with Prime Minister Abe is using The truth is, however, that China. [This speech was given similar language to make his Yasukuni is not a good issue before the announcement of own intentions ambiguous. The for Japan to draw a line in the Abe’s visit to Beijing.] I expect Chinese probably hope that sand. Japan can only lose in the that we are going to see a ambiguity means he will not court of world opinion over the honeymoon in relations go while he is prime minister. issue of war responsibility. between Japan and China. People on the Japanese right There are many competing pro- Abe will meet with Hu Jintao want to believe that the Chinese posals for how to deal with the in Vietnam in November at acceptance of ambiguity means Yasukuni issue. The best and I expect that we are the Asian Pacific Economic that they are willing to accept unfortunately the least likely going to see a Cooperation (APEC) summit Abe’s visiting the shrine. one is to thoroughly depoliticize honeymoon in meeting. He may go to Beijing I cannot see how Abe can visit Yasukuni. The people who are relations between before then. He will make an Yasukuni and avoid a sharp paying the highest price for this Japan and China. effort to improve relations with deterioration in relations with issue are the family members of China. And everything that we China and an adverse reaction those who died in the war and —Gerald Curtis have seen shows that the Chinese elsewhere in Asia and in the are being manipulated for polit- are busy sending signals to United States, as well. But I do ical purposes. They are either Tokyo that they want to think for the next few months being used by the Japanese improve relations with Japan we will see him take initiatives right wing to glorify Japanese and that they see Koizumi’s to try to improve relations with wartime behavior or indirectly departure as the opportunity China. Earlier this year I had by the Chinese who see the to resume a dialogue with the a discussion with Abe on history issue as a useful card new prime minister. So there Japanese television about to be played against Japan. is a mutual interest in trying to Yasukuni and other issues. The problem is not simply the

September 26, 2006 7 Yushukan, the war museum not to go to Yasukuni?” But he prime minister might be. Japan that is at Yasukuni. I have been saw the damage that it did to cannot rely on the United States to Yasukuni several times, but Japanese national interest and necessarily seeing it to be in its when I visited three years ago, he never went back. He was a national interest to view issues I went to the inner shrine to nationalist who wanted Japan in ways that are seen to be in pay my respects. While you to stand tall, but when he Japan’s national interest. That wait to be taken in by the priest became prime minister he was much easier during the to this inner sanctum, you are accepted that the national Cold War than it is now. Japan seated in front of a television interest must trump personal has to deal with a rising China Prime Minister Abe monitor that shows a film about ideology. Pragmatism won out, and a nuclear . knows that Japan the Tokyo war crimes trial. This and the question about Abe And it has to respond to U.S. is not in the museum; this is in is whether he is pragmatic or demands that allies cooperate has to change but the inner shrine itself. Yasukuni whether ideology will drive in the struggle against Islamic the question is should be a quiet place where his policies. terrorism. whether he has people can go with their mem- There is some reason to Prime Minister Abe knows a strategy. ories of those they lost in the believe that pragmatism may that Japan has to change but —Gerald Curtis war. Instead, it is a politically win out. Abe has become the question is whether he has inspired institution caught up prime minister at a time when a strategy. If you do not have in intense controversy. And as three eras have simultaneously a strategy and just have an atti- long as it is, it is going to be ended in Japan. He has to fig- tude, you can get yourself into a political hot potato for the ure out how to lead Japan into a lot of trouble. And if a key prime minister. a new era. First of all, it is the part of the strategy is to rally Looking at the media cover- end of a political era. The five Japanese nationalism against age of Abe, especially the global and a half year Koizumi admin- supposed efforts by other media, I am reminded of how istration was the most unique countries to tell Japan what to the media treated Yasuhiro political regime in post-war do, then there is going to be Nakasone when he was the Japan. He cannot continue poli- deterioration in Japan’s rela- prime minister in the early tics the way Koizumi played it tions with its neighbors. And 1980s. When he became prime and I think he understands that. the problem for Japan is that if minister, he was widely seen It is also the end of an economic there is continuing deteriora- as a Japanese Gaullist. He was era, of 15 years of deflation and tion of Japan’s relations with going to lead Japan to have economic trouble for Japan. its neighbors and Americans nuclear weapons, to revise the Now he has to deal with the conclude that the key reason Constitution, to weaken the political issues of managing is because of Abe’s revisionist alliance with the United States Japan’s economic recovery attitude about history, it will not and become an autonomous and resisting or dealing with play well in the United States. power. He not only went to the pressures from the LDP So there is reason for con- Yasukuni, but for the first time to spend more money, the cern. There are a lot of very he got the Cabinet to approve it Ministry of Finance to raise conservative people in key as an official visit. I remember taxes, and so on. Thirdly, it is positions in this administration being in a small group of schol- the end of 50 years of timidity who create pressures to play ars who had dinner with Prime on the international political the nationalist card. Nonetheless, Minister Nakasone soon after stage. The low posture adopted there are powerful domestic he was elected. He sat across from the days of Prime Minister pressures that operate to a table from us and said, “Your Yoshida is giving way to some- constrain government policy. president goes to Arlington thing else. And that would be Moreover, the United States Cemetery, how can you tell me the case no matter who the wants to have an alliance with

8 Assessing the New Abe Administration in Japan Japan and a good relationship this month. Ota talks about the increased the absolute number with China at the same time. Komeito’s participation in the of votes it got. It is just that the There are lots of pressures on LDP coalition government from voting rate went up because of Abe to be pragmatic and mod- 1998 until now as the first the excitement Koizumi gener- erate. Koizumi was the second phase of coalition partnership. ated. The so-called “Koizumi longest-serving prime minister The second phase, under his children” won and the DPJ lost. since the LDP came into power leadership, is to begin now. But the party is actually stronger after Prime Minister Eisaku The Komeito under Ota is than it appears. Its leader, Ichiro Sato, and the third longest since likely to be less amenable to Ozawa, so far has handled him- the end of the Second World the conservative policy goals of self very well as president of War, following Abe than it was under its previ- the DPJ. If he continues to do and then Sato. Prime Minister ous leadership. And there is a so and if his health holds up, Abe has a really tough election debate below the surface in the he could be a formidable oppo- coming up not that far away. Komeito about the future of nent to Abe and the LDP. But Next summer there is going to that party, whether it should unfortunately, one thing we be an election for the Upper continue its alliance with the know about the opposition in House. Those members whose LDP or try to take a position Japan is that it always has found terms are ending are those similar to the Free Democrats a way to surprise observers by elected six years ago, three in Germany, swinging from finding ways to self-destruct. months after Koizumi became support of one party to another And so you should not dismiss prime minister, when his popu- at different times and on differ- the possibility that it will do larity was close to 90 percent. ent issues. So if you are a Japan that again, and Abe, in a way, So the LDP did a lot better politics watcher, one thing to will get a free ride. in 2001 than it should have watch is how the Komeito moves So this is a rather inconclusive expected to, and it is not going under this new leadership. talk about the Abe administra- to do as well next year. The The other party is the oppo- tion for what I think is a very question is, how badly the LDP sition party, the Democratic good reason. It is not possible will fare, and if it does very Party of Japan (DJP). What you to give a talk about the Abe badly, there will be pressures can say is that the LDP is not as administration that concludes to force Abe out. So some peo- strong as it looks, and the DPJ very much because he is an ple think he will not last very is not as weak as it appears. unknown, and drawing conclu- What you can say long, and others believe he Last year, the LDP swept the sions is premature. We know is that the LDP is will survive. There is no way September election, but it was he cannot do it the Koizumi not as strong as it to know at this point. not the LDP that won the elec- way. He has to do it through looks, and the DPJ Finally, there are two other tion. It was Koizumi that won teamwork. If he thinks he can parties that are relevant players the election. And what we make decisions in the prime is not as weak in this game. One is the Komeito. know about Koizumi is not minister’s office and force it as it appears. The day before yesterday in only did he win the election, down the throat of the LDP, —Gerald Curtis Tokyo I spent about two and a but also over the past five and he will be history before very half hours with Akihiro Ota, the a half years he has done a lot long. He has to work with his new head of the Komeito and to destroy the LDP’s vote-gath- party. He has to build a con- someone I have known for ering machine. So we do not sensus. In a way, he has to be more than a decade. We had know how strong the LDP is a more old-fashioned political a dialogue that is going to be without Koizumi or without a leader while convincing the published in the party newspa- very popular leader. The DPJ public that he is not old-fash- per on the day of his election did badly in terms of seats ioned. This is all pretty tough. to party president at the end of last September, but it actually Is he up to the task? No one

September 26, 2006 9 knows. I apologize for not want to see economic reform. tion tax. It will be raised, I am being able to give you a stronger Shiozaki is not yet a real heavy- certain, but they are not going message, but this I believe is weight in the LDP and as chief to talk about it until the Upper an accurate summary of the cabinet secretary he is really House election. Then they current Japanese political not on top of managing those will talk about it and then the scene. Thank you. issues. Nakagawa, the chairman following year pass it to be of the LDP’s policy council, is implemented in the year fol- I think a lot of DISCUSSION in a very critical position, but lowing that. So I expect the his interests are almost entirely consumption tax to be increased, economic analysts QUESTION on the foreign policy side. And probably to eight percent or so look at this Cabinet ould you tell us more Yamamoto at the FSA does not from the current five percent, and are somewhat C about the economic team? have a track record. Ota, who in 2009 or 2010. concerned that it is Is it going to carry out eco- is a good friend of mine and a not made up of nomic reforms? Do you have terrific person, has no political QUESTION much of a sense of who the very strong people clout. She is not Takenaka, ow do you think Abe’s players are? In addition to the and does not have who was in a very special nationalism will affect cabinet members, are there H position. First of all, he had the foreign policy? Is he really that a strong message. other economic advisors? whole portfolio. He had the similar to Nakasone? —Gerald Curtis FSA and the Council, and he GERALD CURTIS had Koizumi, the most popular GERALD CURTIS mentioned the key eco- prime minister in recent history, ell, what we know nomic cabinet ministers: 100 percent behind him. That I about Nakasone is that Omi in Finance, Yamamoto in is not true for Ota. I think a lot W he is a sophisticated strategic the FSA, and Shiozaki as the of economic analysts look at thinker about foreign affairs. chief cabinet secretary. The this Cabinet and are somewhat Nakasone is opposed to the Agriculture Minister, Toshikatsu concerned that it is not made Yasukuni Shrine visit by the Matsuoka, is regarded as one up of very strong people and prime minister because of his of the most pro-agriculture does not have a strong message. more general concern about lobby members of the LDP. However, the most important relations with Asian countries So either this is going to be a thing is that they do not do and China, in particular. We “Richard Nixon goes to Beijing” something wrong. In other really do not know what kind kind of phenomenon where words, if they do not do much of leader Abe will turn out to because he is so popular with of anything that is not so bad, be, but he has given no indica- the protectionist agriculture because so much is being driven tion that he is a sophisticated, lobby in Japan, he is the one by the private sector. It is not strategic thinker about inter- who can bring them along to government spending that has national affairs. I do not mean accept greater agricultural lib- been driving the economic that necessarily that he will not eralization, or Japan’s desire recovery, just the opposite; it is prove to be one, but there is no to forge free trade agreements the government getting out of evidence of it. He talks much with Asian countries will be the way of the private sector. more in emotional terms about thwarted by its refusal to open So as long as the government patriotism, nationalism, and a its markets to agricultural prod- does not do something precipi- more muscular foreign policy ucts. I think the chances are tous to set back reform or pull without conveying a sense that good that he will be a strong the rug out from under the he has thought strategically voice for agriculture protection recovery, that may be good about Japan’s role in the world. in this government. That is not enough. The looming issue is He does emphasize what he good news for people who the increase in the consump-

10 Assessing the New Abe Administration in Japan have an opinion, but it really would be terrific if you revise Article 9.” Both former Secretary of State Colin Powell and former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage have publicly, on Japanese TV, encouraged Japan to revise Article 9. “Get Japanese boots on the ground in Iraq and else- where,” is the language that Richard Armitage has used. I think that if a Democratic administration comes into power in 2009, it will be the same. I think, generally, calls a strategy of strengthening while Japan, which has cut its American political leaders in Japan’s ties with other democ- defense budget by about a per- Washington think if there is a racies in Asia, especially India centage point a year for the last job to be done in terms of and Australia. That is fine, but five years and is going to come security, why should we not the idea that a Japan-India link- in at zero or maybe at a slight demand that Japan too con- age can somehow serve as a increase this year, and is the tribute militarily? If you think balancer against China is fanci- one country in the world that just in bilateral terms, then ful. India and China have been has actually had a peaceful rise there is a natural inclination to working very hard to improve over the past 60 years, is some- say that the Japanese should their relations and India is not how viewed as on the verge revise Article 9, they should about to get into some sort of of a new kind of militarism. become a normal country, they anti-Chinese coalition with But, a lot of the reason for this should put their boots on the Japan. So as I said, what con- perception is the rhetoric that ground along with American cerns me about this group of comes out of Tokyo itself, out boots and their soldiers should people in the leadership right of the key leaders in the LDP, In China and die like American soldiers, in now is that though they are including those who now run in South Korea, Iraq or anywhere else where younger and raised in the post- the government. especially, the that might be necessary. If you war period, there is this kind of think in regional and in concern is about a nationalism that does not have QUESTION broader terms about American revival of Japanese clear policy content. The worst hat is South Korea interest in the region as a military power that thing is to simply use rhetoric W and China’s reaction to whole, it seems to me it is not a without content, because what would threaten Abe’s proposal to revise the good idea to encourage Japan that does is either scare people the region. Constitution, especially Article to drastically augment its mili- or make them jump to conclu- 9? How would this affect tary roles and missions. In East —Gerald Curtis sions that are not justified. After or impact the relationship Asia, opinion is the opposite of all, it is kind of odd that China, between the three countries? what you find in Washington. with a military budget that In China and in South Korea, increases 15, 16, 17 percent a GERALD CURTIS especially, the concern is about year and has for the last 15 he Bush administration a revival of Japanese military years or so, is able to say it is has formally said, “Look, power that would threaten the engaged in a peaceful rise, T it is your decision. We do not region. The reaction is exces-

September 26, 2006 11 sive and unrealistic in my view. but since the country is a Hashimoto with the primary If Article 9 is going to be revised democracy, things will work purpose of strengthening the in several years, the revision out. They are manageable. The role of the prime minister’s that most of the LDP members problem is Japan is butting up office in policy making. He set would support, leave aside the against China. Now for the first up the structure, but it first rest of the country, and the time, both of these countries came into effect in February only revision that would get are great powers and they are 2001. Koizumi became prime The Chinese, anything close to the two thirds trying to figure out how they minister in April 2001, so vote of Diet members that you can live with each other. It is Koizumi is the first prime the South Koreans, would need is one that essen- very important for the Chinese minister who actually breathed and the North tially codified the status quo. to have a sophisticated strategy life into this new structure. And Koreans will por- Most of the people who are to deal with Japan, because if the new structure changed the tray constitutional advocating revising Article 9 are the strategy is simply to use dynamic of policy making and revision as some pretty moderate, saying, “We gaiatsu, foreign pressure, and shifted the center of gravity sort of revival have a military. Why kid our- lecture the Japanese about away from the LDP and into selves and the world? We call it what they should do, you the prime minister’s office. of Japanese the self-defense force and the know what you will get. That new institutional context militarism. Constitution says we do not We have already seen the for policy making is going —Gerald Curtis have a military, but we do so reaction of Koizumi to to continue, but how it gets let us say so.” Advocates would Chinese pressure. implemented is hugely depend- like to see the Constitution ent on personality. Koizumi specify that the Japanese QUESTION not only centered the policy military can participate in UN ne of the most important making in the prime minister’s sanctioned peace keeping O aspects of the Koizumi office, but he basically told his operations but otherwise there administration would be that party that as long as he was is broad support for keeping Koizumi showed a new type of prime minister they would do constitutional constraints on the leadership in Japan by having what he wanted, and if they military. But the Chinese, the a lot more policy initiative did not like it they could try South Koreans, and the North compared to the prime minis- to replace him. He purged Koreans will portray constitu- ters in the past. This could people who opposed his tional revision as some sort of have been because of his per- policy on postal system reform. revival of Japanese militarism. sonal character or other factors, If Koizumi had not driven key This all feeds on itself. It cre- but at the same time, it could party leaders out of the party ates a dynamic of its own. have been because of political, in advance of the September If the Japanese feel they are administrative, and institutional election, because they opposed being unfairly accused of doing reforms. What is your opinion postal reform, Abe would something they are not doing, about the continuities and have had a much tougher time by countries that are trying discontinuities of the Japanese becoming prime minister. to keep Japan down, there is Prime Ministership? There would have been Takeo going to be a natural (as we Hiranuma, a very conservative, see already) nationalist reaction very powerful man, who would GERALD CURTIS in Japan. have been in the race. He was hat is a good question. By the way, Abe has a very purged. There also was a The institutional changes different view of Korea than T chance that the prime minister you refer to were not brought he does of China. His view on today would be a woman, about by Koizumi. They were South Korea is that Japan has Seiko Noda, if she had not instituted by Prime Minister problems with South Korea, been purged.

12 Assessing the New Abe Administration in Japan When Koizumi became there is no going back to the is about the Yasukuni Shrine prime minister, he appointed old system. Abe has to figure out over the next six months. But Takenaka, an academic and how to strengthen the Council considering that he became economic commentator, as a and the role of the prime minis- popular due to his nationalism, kind of economic czar and ter’s office in general to what kind of policy can Abe use gave him complete backing. institutionalize, in a sense, this to consolidate his popularity in And so the Economic and new institutional structure. He the meantime? Fiscal Policy Council became a cannot rely on the force of his

very critical institution because personality as Koizumi did. If GERALD CURTIS it set the parameters for policy he is not successful, these insti- think that he needs to that constrained the bureaucrats tutional reforms will turn out to I focus on issues that are in the line ministries. After last be far less significant than many close to people’s real concerns, September’s election, when people currently think they are. which have a lot more to do Koizumi won so decisively, he But the point is that there is no with the education of their had the mandate to basically do other site for decision making children, with pensions, and whatever he wanted and what like there was before. So if the with medical care. I would he decided to do was not very new institutions in the prime think that if he conveys the much of anything. Takenaka minister’s office do not operate image of a courageous leader, eventually was replaced, and well, the decision making not afraid to take positions that the Economic and Fiscal Policy process itself will be impaired. might not be entirely popular, Council was captured by the I think the Koizumi five and a but are aimed at dealing with line ministry bureaucrats, espe- half years may be remembered these kinds of issues, it would cially Ministry of Finance as a very important and a very serve him very well. He has bureaucrats. Ota, now the head entertaining intermission in some policy positions on of the Council, published a Japanese political history. The compulsory school education terrific book about the Council curtain has come down on the reform. Some of them are this past summer in which she Koizumi administration. There non-controversial, as they have draws a rather pessimistic con- is no way that Prime Minister been batted around for years, clusion, complaining that after Abe is simply going to continue I think the such as the periodic re-exami- Takenaka left, the Council lost Koizumi’s politics. But the cur- Koizumi five and nation and relicensing of its dynamism because bureau- tain is going up on a new stage. teachers to try to weed out a half years may be crats increased their control. It It cannot be the pre-Koizumi the ineffective ones. He also remembered as a will be interesting to see if she stage because too much has advocates something like what very important is able to turn things around, changed, including institutional Mayor Bloomberg is doing in and a very but I do not believe you will features that were changed in New York, giving principals of ever see the Council function the late 1990s, especially under schools more power against entertaining the way it did under Koizumi Hashimoto. So the curtain is intermission in the union and things like that. and Takenaka. going up on a new stage and But his major proposal, though Japanese political The interaction between we have these new characters, the details here too are very history. structure and personality is very particularly the main character, vague, is to have a voucher interesting and the institutional Abe, who has not shown much —Gerald Curtis system so that people can take reforms to strengthen the prime about how he is going to govern. these vouchers and send their minister’s policy making power kids to the primary or middle is a good case study. Personality QUESTION school of their choice. I think means a lot, and of course ou said that Abe needs to this is an absolutely disastrous structure does too, because Y decide what his position approach and will exacerbate

September 26, 2006 13 inequalities rather than reduce people have any idea of how it Japan to urban Japan. It was them. His idea is that if there is really works elsewhere. That is a phenomenon of Koizumi’s a good school, people can take why when people talk about popularity. What Koizumi their vouchers and try to get these issues in Japan, I discount accomplished was not to shift their kid into the good school, a lot of it because the whole the LDP base from rural Japan which leaves the not-so-good context is so different. Even to urban Japan, but basically school under pressure to reform conservative Japanese recoil in to weaken the LDP base every- itself. It may be so, but even horror at the idea that the where. So that what you have under the best circumstances, government should turn over now is a party system in which What has changed it is several years before such health care insurance to the pri- no party really has a strong is that many LDP reforms can take place. In the vate sector and not guarantee base anywhere. The DPJ has a meantime, the students whose universal health care coverage. stronger base in urban Japan members now parents do not have the money In any case, I think that Abe than the LDP, although the cannot get elected or the ambition for their children should focus on domestic LDP elected more people in if their leader is to pass an exam and get into issues, but my expectation is urban Japan in the last election. unpopular. the good school are going to that he is going to put a lot of But many of the 84 Koizumi —Gerald Curtis get stuck in a school that gets emphasis on foreign policy and children, the first term Diet increasingly worse. You will on rhetoric about Japan playing members who were elected then see the kind of problems a larger role in the world. Since last September, have little hope we see in the United States. there is not likely to be much of being re-elected. So there is There are some things policy substance behind the a great deal of fluidity in voting about the American model that rhetoric, what he will accom- behavior, and the change in are worth emulating, but I tell plish is to unnecessarily scare the Japanese election system to my Japanese friends that there some people and create a a predominantly single-member are at least two things you mood in the country that I do district system has had a huge should not look to the United not think is very constructive, impact on the political culture. States as a model for health but I hope I am wrong. In the past, you could have a insurance and compulsory boring prime minister, but if school education reform. The QUESTION you were an LDP incumbent United States has far more to ne of the results of the with a strong personal support learn from Japan in these two O last Lower House elec- base, you would get re-elected. areas than Japan has to learn tion was that the LDP made And under the medium-sized from the United States. Japanese some inroads in the urban election district that existed spend 8 percent of Gross National areas, while the opposition DPJ until 1993, you only needed Product (GNP) on health care made headway in the rural 15 or 20 percent of the vote to and there is universal health vote. Do you think the election get elected because there were insurance. Americans spend 14 results mark a permanent shift several people elected in the percent of GNP on health care in the LDP, or is that simply a same district. So you could and 45 million people do not one-off thing that we will see secure your 20 percent of the have health insurance. It is erode? If it is a shift, what is the vote almost regardless of the popular in Japanese conserva- policy impact? popularity of the prime minis- tive circles to say that just about ter. What has changed is that everything should be left to many LDP members now can- GERALD CURTIS the private sector. But I do not not get elected if their leader is t is a one-off thing, as you think these people really believe unpopular. They have to have put it. The LDP has not it, even when they say it, I a popular leader. Why did Abe shifted its base from rural because I do not think most become prime minister?

14 Assessing the New Abe Administration in Japan transfer of power from the LDP to the DPJ maybe in the not too distant future, but how much of a difference it will mean in policy terms is not so clear. The election system is not going to be changed, and under the cur- rent one there is the possibility of a major swing in support from one party to the other, especially now that the LDP machine is weak and the great majority of voters are not affili- ated with any party. That is why the LDP is running scared about next summer’s election. That is why there is going to be enormous pressure on Abe to throw government money at Because the LDP figured he a tremendous temptation to groups that the LDP hopes can was more popular with the take a populist stance to rally bring it votes. The pressure public than anybody else at public support. I thought it was is already starting to build. that moment. When you talk to a big mistake to adopt this elec- So we will know soon enough LDP Diet men about the votes tion system in the first place for whether Abe resists the pres- they can rely on, there are that reason. In a country like sures to spend and thereby to almost no interest groups left the United States, a multiethnic keep the fiscal deficit from that can be relied upon to country, if you had a propor- increasing, or whether he sides deliver votes. The one that is tional representation system, with those who say that more most reliable is not an LDP every group would have its spending is necessary to win supporting group, but the own party and it would be the Upper House election, Komeito supporting Soka chaos. A single member district which in turn is necessary if I do not think Gakkai. The LDP has a system forces social coalitions Abe hopes to stay in power that Koizumi coalition with the Komeito, in the Democratic Party and in beyond next year. accomplished not because they need the the Republican Party. It creates Komeito’s votes in the Diet, stability. That is part of the the task of shifting but because they need the whole attractiveness of single the LDP base Soka Gakkai members’ votes member district systems in from rural to in their own election. pluralistic, multiethnic societies urban Japan. I do not think that Koizumi like ours. But when you have accomplished the task of shift- a country like Japan and you —Gerald Curtis ing the LDP base from rural have a single member district to urban Japan. He may have system where you have to try done a lot to destroy the LDP to get a majority of the votes to base, period. Then it becomes win, the consequence is quite a question of which leader is obvious. The two major parties more popular. That can be very will say exactly the same thing. dangerous because that creates So yes, we may finally see a

September 26, 2006 15 EDITOR Kaya Laterman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR Jeff Lagomarsino Program Officer Center on Japanese Economy and Business

PHOTOGRAPHY Eileen Barroso

CENTER ON JAPANESE ECONOMY AND BUSINESS Columbia Business School 321 Uris Hall 3022 Broadway New York, NY 10027 Phone: 212-854-3976 Fax: 212-678-6958 E-mail: [email protected] http://www.gsb.columbia.edu/cjeb